EDITORIAL 24.12.10

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Editorial

month december 24, edition 000711, collected & managed by durgesh kumar mishra, published by – manish manjul

 

Editorial is syndication of all daily- published newspaper Editorial at one place.

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THE PIONEER

1. IF YOU CAN'T BUY BREAD...
2. BACK TO THE SIXTIES
3. YULETIDE MUSINGS - PREMEN ADDY
4. ASSANGE 'MAN OF THE YEAR' - ARINDAM CHAUDHURI
5. LEFT OUT IN THE COLD - ANURADHA DUTT
6. CONGRESS NEEDS TO INTROSPECT - KALYANI SHANKAR
7. AS THE WEST SLEPT, ISLAMISTS PLOTTED - BARRY RUBIN

MAIL TODAY

1. PROBE THE INDRESH ANGLE IN THE TERROR TRAIL PROPERLY
2. HELP KIDS JUNK THIS FOOD
3. VENALITY AS A QUALIFICATION
4. THE SCAM IN AVIATION IS AS BAD AS THE 2G SCANDAL - BY PULLARAO PENTAPATI
5. PAK- CHINA RELATIONS SANS THE PROPAGANDA - BY NAJAM SETHI

THE TIMES OF INDIA

1. SHIFT THE TRACKS
2. IT'S THEIR BUSINESS
3. THE TALLEST CRICKETER... - BORIA MAJUMDAR
4. 'UNIVERSE IS NOT DEFINED BY ONE BEGINNING AND END'
5. APPROVING GORMINT - JUG SURAIYA 

HINDUSTAN TIMES

1. WALK THE LINE, WITH CARE
2. ID MUBARAK
3. PEOPLE'S REPUBLICS - JOHN LEE, 
4. HARDLY FARM FRESH - SONALI BISHT, 
5. BEHIND THE MASK, IT'S WARTS AND ALL - ADITE BANERJIE

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

1. UP'S CHANGED
2. TOWARDS A THAW
3. ALMOST 500
4. THE ARTIST BEGS TO DIFFER - SUDEEP PAUL 
5. POLICE POSTS & CHECKS - BIBEK DEBROY 
6. WHY MUSEUMS SHOULD START DIGGING
7. IN NEPAL, THE UN'S MISSION IS FAR FROM ACCOMPLISHED - YUBARAJ GHIMIRE 
8. KNOWING WHAT'S GOOD FOR US - KSHANKARBAJPAI 
9. DOMINANCE OR LEADERSHIP? - FARHAD SORABJEE 

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

1. REGULATORY LIABILITY
2. MULTI-LAYERED PROBLEMS
3. CHRONICLE OF A DIVORCE FORETOLD - KRISHNAMURTHY V SUBRAMANIAN
4. DID THE EARTH MOVE FOR YOU? - JEEVAN DEOL
5. EAVESDROPPER
6. EASTERN COUSINS

THE HINDU

1. DEALING WITH COMMUNALISMS
2. INEXPLICABLE DELAY
3. U.S. BRINGS SILK ROAD TO INDIA - M.K. BHADRAKUMAR
4. WE NEED PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, NOT JUST PROCESS - DESMOND TUTU AND JIMMY CARTER
5. AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN POLICY: LOOKING WEST - KEVIN RUDD
6. AMERICAN LOBBYISTS WORK FOR IVORIAN LEADER - ERIC LICHTBLAU AND HELENE COOPER
7. COMPUTERS THAT TRADE ON THE NEWS – GRAHAM BOWLEY

THE ASIAN AGE

1. FARMER CRISIS TESTS AP GOVT
2. A CHINDIA WORLD - SHASHI THAROOR
3. RED ALERT FOR INDIA - ARUN KUMAR SINGH

DNA

1. MUMBAI WONDERBOY — THE NEXT SACHIN TENDULKAR?
2. JALAN PANEL REPORT GIVES REFORMS A MISS
3. NO GOVT INTERFERENCE IN COMMUNITY MATTERS
4. LESSONS I LEARNT FROM MY FIRST CHRISTMAS EVE - FARRUKH DHONDY
5. SCAMMED IN THE NAME OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SCIENCE - DEVINDER SHARMA

THE KASHMIR TIMES

1. CONTRIVED SCENARIO
2. WOES OF FARMERS
3. BARE-KNUCKLE FIGHT WILL GET WORSE - INDER MALHOTRA
4. NO CARDS, THIS CHRISTMAS...! - BY ROBERT CLEMENTS

DAILY EXCELSIOR

1. THREAT FROM SKIES
2. ANOTHER SHOCKER
3. RESPONSIBLE ROLE FOR THE OPPOSITION - BY TAVLEEN SINGH
4. TIDING OVER FARM WOES - BY SATYENDRA PRATAP SINGH
5. WEN'S INDIA VISITHIGH ON SYMBOLISM, LOW IN SUBSTANCE - BY AJAY KAUL
6. LOSS OF LIFE IN ACCIDENTS - BY SANJAY KUMAR

THE TRIBUNE

1. DESTRUCTIVE POLITICS
2. EDUCATE AND PROFIT
3. EXPANDING THE HORIZON
4. THAT WILL BE THE DAY! - BY JUSTICE RANJIT SINGH
5. INFRASTRUCTURE CAULDRON ON THE EASTERN FRONTIER - MAJ GEN RAJ MEHTA (RETD)
6. MILITARY POSTURE IN THE NORTHEAST

MUMBAI MIRROR

1. THE JUDICIARY ON VACATION, AGAIN

BUSINESS STANDARD

1. BEYOND A BEAR HUG
2. THE AIRBUS SAGA
3. TOUGH TIMES AHEAD? - AKASH PRAKASH
4. ATTACKING DEMOCRACY TO 'SAVE' IT - B G VERGHESE
5. FIX A SPEED LIMIT ON HIRING - SHYAMAL MAJUMDAR
6. 2011 - A speculative peep - Shankar Acharya

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

1. A DEFICIT OF SKILLS
2. WELCOME DISCLOSURE
3. MANESTREAM POLITICS
4. WHAT 2011 MIGHT HOLD
5. SHOULD RAJYA SABHA BE ABOLISHED? - SUDHA PAI 
6. IS DTC BILL 2010 ANTI-DEVELOPMENT? - K S MEHTA 

DECCAN  CHRONICALE

1. FARMER CRISIS TESTS GOVERNMENT
2. A CHINDIA WORLD - BY SHASHI THAROOR
3. REBUILD MIND, SPIRIT TO FIND EQUILIBRIUM - BY JEFFERY SACHS
4. THE TRUE MEANING OF CHRISTMAS - BY GAIL COLLINS AND DAVID BROOKS
5. RED ALERT FOR INDIA - BY ARUN KUMAR SINGH
6. SEEK PEACE THIS XMAS - BY DOMINIC EMMANUEL

THE STATESMAN

1. FILES DISAPPEAR
2. TRAGEDY IN ANDHRA
3. CRISIS STAVED OFF
4. LAPSED AND FORFEITED - ASHWANI MAHAJAN
5. WHEN DEMOCRACY WINS IN RURAL INDIA
6. FIDDLER ON THE ROOF - SUNIPA BASU
7. THE DEBATE THAT STILL DIVIDES AMERICA – DAVID USBORNE

THE TELEGRAPH

1. REAL DUTY
2. FAMILY VALUES
3. HANDLE WITH CARE - SWAPAN DASGUPTA
4. NO CAUSE FOR CHEER -  MALVIKA SINGH

DECCAN HERALD

1. TRUSTED FRIEND
2. DEPLETING RESERVE
3. CHINA'S DIFFERENT STROKES - BY KULDIP NAYAR
4. NEW START HEADED FOR RATIFICATION - BY PETER BAKER, NYT
5. PLEASANT SURPRISE ON THE CARDS - BY L SUBRAMANI

THE JERUSALEM  POST

1. JEWISH CONTINUITY? VISIT ISRAEL

HAARETZ

1. THE KIBBUTZ AS WORLD HERITAGE
2. ONLY A STRONG POLITICAL CENTER WILL HALT ISRAEL'S RACIST FRENZY - BY ARI SHAVIT
3. THE REVOLT OF THE LOVERS - BY YOSSI SARID
4. MOST OF IT GOES TO THE GOVERNMENT - BY NEHEMIA SHTRASLER
5. OBAMA: EARN YOUR NOBEL PRIZE - BY TODD GITLIN
6. NETANYAHU WON'T ATTAIN PEACE WITH RETURN TO 1967 BORDERS - BY MARCOS AGUINIS
7. THEY DARED TO STAND FOR SOMETHING - BY YUVAL ELBASHAN
8. VENI, VIDI, WIKI - BY JARON GILINSKY

THE NEW YORK TIMES

1. CHINA AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
2. REQUIEM FOR A DREAM
3. A GOOD BANKRUPTCY LAW
4. ANOTHER CHRISTMAS IN KABUL - BY CAROL GIACOMO
5. THE HUMBUG EXPRESS - BY PAUL KRUGMAN
6. GOOD NEIGHBORS - BY TÉA OBREHT
7. THE SIDNEY AWARDS - BY DAVID BROOKS

TIMES FREE PRESS

1. UNEASY KOREAN PENINSULA
2. WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT!
3. NEEDED: EXERCISE FOR U.S. KIDS

HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

1. FROM THE BOSPHORUS: STRAIGHT - HEP, DEP, HADEP, DEHAP, DTP, BDP…
2. THE SAME FILM, OVER AND OVER AGAIN - SEMİH İDİZ
3. WHAT'S WIKILEAKS? CHESTNUTS, FOOTBALLER, SOAP OR MEDICINE? - BURAK BEKDİL
4. SECOND ACT OF HOCUS-POCUS PLAN - HALUK BÜRÜMCEKÇİ
5. THE CHP IN THE POST-CONVENTION PERIOD - SEDAT ERGİN
6. A NEW TANGO IS STARTING IN TURKEY-US RELATIONS - MEHMET ALİ BİRAND
7. ENHANCING DEMOCRACY OR CAUSING TURKEY'S DISINTEGRATION? - YUSUF KANLI
8. STUDENT PROTESTS AND REACTIONS: SHALL WE TALK FOR A MINUTE? - DİLEK AYDEMİR
9. HUNGARY'S EU PRESIDENCY: WHAT SHOULD THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP'S - ZAUR SHIRIYEV

THE NEWS

1. CONSPIRACY OR CRIME?
2. STILL AT LARGE
3. A MATTER OF MERIT
4. LET'S STOP FLATTERING INDIA SO MUCH - AYAZ AMIR
5. NO RIGHT TO MURDER - BEENA SARWAR
6. SIMPLY FASCINATING AND MIND-BOGGLING - DR MUZAFFAR IQBAL
7. 'I SCORN THEIR HATRED' - MIR ADNAN AZIZ
8. MEDIA AND THE NATION - SHAFQAT MAHMOOD
9. FAITHFUL CHOICES - HARRIS KHALIQUE

PAKISTAN OBSERVER

1. WORDS OF WISDOM OF SHAUKAT AZIZ
2. WIDEN NET OF BB MURDER CASE
3. LEGISLATION FOR SENIOR CITIZENS RIGHTS
4. THE BEST "MUSLIM" POLICY FOR INDIA - M D NALAPAT
5. US CONTEMPLATING RAIDS IN PAKISTAN - SULTAN M HALI
6. GOOD DEEDS ARE REWARDED IN ISLAM
7. ATIF NOOR KHAN
8. 16 Dec 1971 and emerging realities - Qudrat Ullah
9. WINNING THE CLASS WAR - BOB HERBERT

THE AUSTRALIYAN

1. TARGET DISABILITY SUPPORT TO THOSE WHO NEED IT MOST
2. JUST 92 SLEEPS UNTIL POLLING DAY
3. SPARE US THE CHRISTMAS SERMON

THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

1. REMEMBER TIDINGS OF COMFORT AND JOY
2. CHRISTMAS: THE SECRET IS OUT

THE GUARDIAN

1. COUNCIL SLOGANS: BECAUSE YORK'S WORTH IT
2. RELIGION: RESPECTING THE MINORITY
3. RELIGIOUS NATION
4. IN PRAISE OF … 'THE VOICE OF GOD'

THE JAPAN TIMES

1. SUPPORT FOR ASSAULT VICTIMS
2. CHILD ALLOWANCE HAS STRAYED
3. A THOUGHT FOR THE HOLY DAY - BY KEVIN RAFFERTY

THE JAKARTA POST

1. NATIONALIZING CHRISTMAS
2. XMAS AND AN EPISTEMIC MUSLIM COMMUNITY - KHAIRIL AZHAR
3. CHRISTMAS SHOULD RECOGNIZE WOMAN'S ROLE - MIKAEL DIAN TEGUH
4. CHRISTMAS: THE LANGUAGE OF GOD'S LOVE - ALOYS BUDI PURNOMO

THE MOSCOW TIMES

1. YULETIDE REVELRY - BY MICHELE A. BERDY
2. OFF TO A NEW START - BY DARYL G. KIMBALL

CHINA DAILY

1. UNIVERSITY OF NEW STYLE
2. FAR-SIGHTED SUPPORT
3. DON'T BURY LOVE UNDER CONCRETE - BY HUANG SHUO (CHINA DAILY)
4. SPEED UP INTEREST RATE REFORM - BY GUO TIANYONG (CHINA DAILY)
5. A DIFFERENT ROAD FORWARD - BY YU YONGDING (CHINA DAILY)
6. WEN'S VISIT BENEFITS SOUTH ASIA - BY FU XIAOQIANG (CHINA DAILY)

DAILY MIRROR

1. WHAT THE GOVT. AND HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS OWE PATIENTS
2. NEPAL: SUPREME COURT INTERVENES TO END THE POLITICAL IMPASSE - BY S. CHANDRASEKHARAN
3. 18TH AMENDMENT
4. A TACTICAL MOVE: DEW
5. DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC CHANGE
6. MILITARY GREAT WALL AROUND CHINA 

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

IF YOU CAN'T BUY BREAD...

...EAT CAKE! THAT'S THE MESSAGE OF CONGRESS

As the season of good cheer sets in with the advent of Christmas eve, ironically there's little or no reason, especially for the masses, to feel cheerful. Struggling to bridge the increasing chasm between his wages and cost of living, India's ubiquitous aam admi, the common man who toils hard and does not cheat the Government, will end 2010 on the sour note of unrestrained inflation. The Prime Minister doesn't tire of preening while boasting of high growth and claiming credit for India's economic 'success' that has benefited the thin upper crust of our society and corporates who have the right lobbyists to craft policy to their requirements. Here is a man who spends sleepless nights agonising over the plight of terror accused and whose heart goes out to the families of terrorists killed by our security forces. In between agonising over them and patronising those who benefit from a corrupt-to-the-core system, whatever time is left over is spent on devising new ways and means of appeasing the US and pandering to Pakistan. Understandably, the 'economist' Prime Minister India is saddled with has no time left to bother about the state of the national economy as it impacts the lives of a billion people and not as it is reflected on the ledger books of the Finance Ministry. Hence, it would be meaningless to expect him to be concerned about the further steep rise in food prices with food inflation crossing 12.13 per cent for December 11, the third successive week of increase. Nor should we expect him to worry himself about the stunning increase of food prices by 33.48 per cent this year, compared to last year's price rise. Data released on Thursday shows the prices of vegetables have risen by 15.54 per cent, fruits by 20.15 per cent, milk by 17.83 per cent and eggs, meat and fish by 19.35 per cent on an annualised basis. As always, in a knee-jerk, reflex reaction, the RBI will step in to squeeze money out of the market to forcibly hold down inflation, adding to the woes of the people who will have to pay higher interest rates on loans. This has been the prescribed remedy ever since Mr Manmohan Singh took charge of this nation's destiny in the summer of 2004. The 'rising India' of his imagination, in reality, has turned out to be a country governed by a criminally callous regime that continues to force crushing rising prices on the people while pretending to work for their welfare!

So, where do we go from here? If the policies and programmes of the Congress-led UPA Government are any indication, there is unlikely to be any relief from inflation in the near, foreseeable future. On more than one occasion the Prime Minister has waved away concerns over price rise with sweeping comments to the effect that "inflation is inevitable"; if so be the case, then he owes an explanation as to why the people of the country should bear the burden of his Government's abysmal all-round failure. Such is the gross incompetence, if not collusion, of this Government that profiteers and blackmarketeers have taken over the food economy and are merrily fleecing the masses. Fuelling the galloping inflation are ill-advised and ill-motivated moves of the Government to raise resources by slyly hiking the prices of petroleum products to balance its books and cover up for rampant, corruption-facilitating wastage before presenting the Budget. Such are the joys of living under the Congress's misrule and misgovernance.

 

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

BACK TO THE SIXTIES

VIOLENCE RETURNS TO HAUNT WEST BENGAL

The campus clashes between two rival groups of students in West Bengal that have led to the killing of two young men and the blinding of another in the past fortnight have served to highlight the bitter turf war being fought between the CPI(M) and the Trinamool Congress with next year's Assembly election drawing closer. If Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and State CPI(M) secretary Biman Bose placed wreaths on the body of the slain SFI activist to score political points, four days later Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee walked at the head of a huge procession with the body of the TMC supporter, demonstrating her clout. In some campuses, the violence is not just restricted to clashes between rival student unions, but college administrations are also coming in the line of fire. Recently, the principal of a college in North 24 Parganas suffered a heart attack after he was gheraoed by students for 12 hours. Student politics in West Bengal has never been free of violence with politicians using campuses to recruit foot soldiers. The Left, especially the CPI(M), has been in the forefront of mobilising students and using campuses to further its politics. What began as an experiment in the late-1960s and the early-1970s — for a brief while the Congress used brute state power to gain control of campuses when Siddhartha Shankar Ray was Chief Minister — became normal practice after the the Left Front came to power in 1977. The SFI became the spearhead of the CPI(M); it's another matter that campuses, both of colleges and universities, suffered enormously on this count: Studies took a back seat, teachers used this opportunity to bunk classes and administrations wilfully became putty in the hands of Left trade unions, sensing benefit in choosing that course.

Now that the Trinamool Congress is on the rise and Ms Mamata Banerjee is widely seen as the future Chief Minister of West Bengal, the Left is fighting a rear guard battle for survival. And where best to fight this battle from than the campuses over which the Communists have held sway for more than three decades? True, victory or defeat in campus elections is not going to determine, or even sway, the outcome of the 2011 Assembly poll. But that does not deprive either victory or defeat of political symbolism given West Bengal's charged political atmosphere. The CPI(M) believes that by winning the campus elections it will be able to demonstrate that it still controls the hearts and minds of the youth; the Trinamool Congress believes that by smashing the Marxists' stranglehold over campuses it will be able to push its case further. Tragically, as the State prepares for a regime change which increasingly seems inevitable, the people continue to pay a terrible price. The current violence could be the precursor for violent times ahead.

 

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THE PIONEER

COLUMN

YULETIDE MUSINGS

PREMEN ADDY

Never mind what the media says. Every piece on the chessboard has a special place, as does every card in its deck. Russia remains India's ace

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to India represented another renewal of a unique, time-tested relationship, for long a breakwater in the turbulence of regional and global politics. There were big buck trade deals along the way, of which readers will need no reminding. A BBC voice opined breezily that India by choice was now close to the US and the West. Quite so. Every piece on the chessboard has a special place, as does every card in its deck. Russia remains India's ace. 

The festive season has been scarred by Congress panjandrum Digvijay Singh's purported claim that RSS deeds were akin to Nazi Germany's Holocaust. For all one knows, Mr Singh could have been a blind and deaf mute earthling at Auschwitz who, through a miracle of nature, has recovered his sight, hearing and speech, but lost what little intelligence he possessed. To play politics with a human tragedy beyond imagining invites contempt. Sing us a better song, Mr Singh. 

There are brains aplenty in Washington, DC you would have thought, but the storm over WikiLeaks persuades me that the Obama Administration's good and great have taken leave of their senses, if only temporarily. Their vendetta against the WikiLeaks founder, the intrepid and brave heart Julian Assange, tells of a herd of Gadarene swine on the loose, their inner demons driving them to perdition. MasterCard and Visa no longer accept donations to WikiLeaks but they have no moral qualms doing likewise for the Ku Klux Klan.

The Augean Stables of falsehood and dissimulation around us require the torch-light of whistle-blowers to establish fact from contrived fiction. Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction and the Anglo-American campaign of shock and awe in Iraq turned out to be a poisoned chalice. Wars are made and peace is derailed by tsars of the information industry using incendiary words and pictures to inflame audiences or dull their senses with medicated nostrums. 

Which is where WikiLeaks comes in. Its revelations have resulted in no direct loss of life or injury to any living being. Quite the contrary, it is Mr Assange's adversaries in the corridors of power in Washington and London who are doing most of the killing and maiming. 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India was the subject of a svelte editorial in London's Financial Times. In neutral mode it advised India and China to settle their territorial differences. However difficult and complex the issues, where there was a will, there, inevitably, was a way to their proper solution, it argued. The FT then pointed to the settlement of Beijing's border disputes with Russia, Mongolia, Vietnam and Burma, so why not with India? Why ever not? In the foreseeable future and not in unspecified centuries to come, as Mr Wen Jiabao appeared to suggest to his Indian audience.

Curiously, nowhere in the editorial was Tibet or the Dalai Lama mentioned. Yet both lie at the heart of the troubled China-India relationship. Tibet was indisputably a self-governing nation for much of the first half of the 20th century; it was invaded and occupied by Maoist China in 1950.The fact that the world, including India, accepted the legitimacy of Chinese rule has not ameliorated Beijing's paranoia about the 'splittists' who allegedly conspire to separate Tibet from the 'motherland'. China seethes at the presence of the Fourteenth Dalai Lama on Indian soil, heedless, it would appear, of how he came to be there.

The Dalai Lama arrived in India in April 1959, seeking sanctuary from the repression of the country's Chinese overlords, just as his predecessor the Great Thirteenth did way back in February 1910 when the Chinese warlord, Chao Erh-feng, marched into Lhasa with his troops who began plundering its Buddhist monasteries. China would like nothing better than the Government of India to tell the Dalai Lama to leave the country for another abode, preferably within comfortable distance of the British Foreign Office. Whereupon every dispute with India would wither and disappear into the night, with Pakistan's value as a strategic ally going the way of the Wall Street crash of 2008. 

The Dalai Lama enriches India by his presence; were His Holiness to depart under duress the country would be diminished and the Indian people shamed. Philip Stephens, the Financial Times columnist, writes of "the risen China". Pardon the blasphemy, but this would appear to resonate with "the risen Christ". Of present-day follies there is no lack. Their proliferation is a civilisational threat.

 

The FT's reference to Mongolia brings into play a significant chapter in regional and international history. Mongolia and Tibet, as sister nations, are joined at the hip by religion, culture and ethnicity. The collapse of the Chinese Empire in December 1911 enabled Mongols and Tibetans alike to shake off the last shackles of Beijing's authority, this leading to declamations of full independence by Mongolia and Tibet, who went on to draw up a defence treaty in 1913.

 

Mongolian sovereignty was ultimately guaranteed by Soviet military power. Imperial Japan's ambitions in Mongolia were thwarted in the summer of 1939 by Soviet forces commanded by Gen Georgi Zhukov, who six years later as legendary Marshal Zhukov, presided over the Götterdämmerung of the Wehrmacht in Berlin. 

At the conclusion of World War II, with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan laid low, Josef Stalin -- "an amazing and gigantic personality" (Churchill's words, not mine) -- turned his attention to Mongolia's disputed status; he forced TV Soong, Chiang Kai-shek's Foreign Minister and brother-in-law, to recognise Mongolian independence in China's treaty with the Soviet Union in 1945, an arrangement that found favour with US President Franklin D Roosevelt. Mongolia is today a sovereign entity recognised by the entire international community. Need one say more?

The British played a less resolute and more devious role in Tibet with its sophistries on suzerainty and sovereignty, which found a place in the Simla Convention of July 1914. As a result Tibet and India have suffered, Tibet more grievously than India. 

A contemporay injustice was America's arming and funding of the Islamist Kosovo Liberation Front in its struggle to break away from Yugoslavia. An Albanian rump, led by Hashem Thaci, was installed, thanks to the Dayton accord masterminded by the recently deceased Richard Holbrooke, less a giant of American foreign policy and more a gangland enforcer. Mr Thaci, an EU report has revealed, was a longtime drug smuggler, a slayer of Serbs and trafficker in Serb body parts. Human parts, not human rights, was (and is) the name of the game. The report arraigns the US and Nato for their indulgence of the man and his rule. An Islamic banana republic in the Balkans doesn't bode well for the future stability of Europe.

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THE PIONEER

OPED

ASSANGE 'MAN OF THE YEAR'

ARINDAM CHAUDHURI

With media becoming increasingly profit-driven and controlled by those who don't want the truth to come out, it's important that investigative journalists find new ways to tell their stories. The Internet is a great platform for this purpose and Julian Assange has shown how to use it

I am sure you all must be wondering what's new or great about this — the entire world already is talking about the man behind WikiLeaks, Mr Julian Assange. Hopefully by the end of this article you will realise what's the big deal. 

While commenting on lobbying and media, I had only touched upon the perspective of the extent to which nations go to maintain their image. I had taken examples of how the History Channel, akin to slavish propagators of the capitalist dictate, distorted and promoted the image of the biggest global revolutionary icon, Che Guevara, as a global terrorist. I had also mentioned how Michael Moore's film Sicko was edited by an American channel and given a conclusion other than the one he had originally made.

Moore had concluded that the Cuban health system was the best, while the channel in question — after doing a series on it without knowing the ending, and subsequently realising that the conclusion could be bad for America's PR — changed the ending with a voiceover saying that the Canadian health system was the best. So, in any case, when the truth is not being crushed by the US Government like in the case of Mr Assange, it is being crushed by the media. The problem is as much the media as the Government.

In fact, in my book The Great Indian Dream, I had categorically stated that democracy in a capitalist economy tends to become an illusion since one of the biggest forces of a democracy is the media. In a capitalist world, the media is mostly owned by private profiteers who promote news that will increase their profits, or those of its key stakeholders. 

Thus, invariably — barring news that's on your face — the philosophy and lifestyle that get propagated are not conducive to well-being and happiness of human beings, but focussed towards the well-being of the markets. So media plays, for example, a huge role in propagating happiness linked to material well-being (because people who believe in that are those from whom you can earn profits by selling products which they believe will increase happiness in their lives) than happiness linked to human interactions and family values, which necessarily give a much deeper, more meaningful and a longer lasting sense of happiness.

While individuals in America think that they are living in a great democracy (they indeed are among the best of the lot), the reality is that their thoughts and actions are non-stop being manipulated and often distorted by profiteers to suit their own goals. From hiding facts about nicotine being a proven harmful drug to promoting a lifestyle which has given rise to the biggest killer disease in America today — McDonalds-driven obesity — the American media has made its citizens 'product dustbins' for business houses. Americans think they have brains; but the brains are being controlled by a profit-driven media.

Governments themselves are non-democratic when it comes to protecting the image they want to propagate — like in the Julian Assange case — and resolve to extremes like murder and all kinds of illegal arrests to stop the media from functioning freely. Those who have been at the receiving end are investigative journalists and whistle-blowers. How can one forget American journalist Daniel Pearl? He had uncovered dangerous secrets about the involvement of Pakistan's ISI with Islamic extremists. Pearl was kidnapped and beheaded in Pakistan in 2002. 

 

Last year in February, Musa Khankhel, a reporter for The News International and GEO TV, was kidnapped as he was reportedly working on a series of public events addressed by Maulana Sufi Mohammed in Pakistan. Later, his bullet-ridden body was found. On July 9, 2004, Paul Klebnikov, who worked for Forbes, was attacked and shot in Moscow. Even Forbes' Russian edition, after his death, acknowledged that the murder was "definitely linked to his professional activity. Authorities in Iran have detained an American freelance journalist Roxana Saberi (who once worked for NPR and BBC). There are numerous such examples.

In this world of media — which is either being controlled tightly by Governments even in so-called great democracies like America, or constantly being influenced by lobbyists, or deliberately lobbying for wrong causes due to their own profit-making structures — the best way to have an unbiased media that is genuinely committed to human well-being is to have a media run by multiple journalists cooperatives, with the state even funding them partially, as well as funding a part of their annual budget, without of course being able to influence the media constitutionally.

But since that's in an ideal situation and less likely to happen soon, the Internet has come as a boon for investigative journalists. That's why, though TIME magazine has declared another Internet icon, Mark Zuckerberg, as the man of the year (and perhaps rightly so, from the point of view of impact on the masses), our man of the year is Mr Assange. This is the hope for investigative journalism. The power of the word of the citizens and the netizens is strong enough to very soon have laws that will know how to protect the genuine and true journalists on the Net from being illegally framed and punished. Because when media caters to the profiteers, the true not-for-profit journalists make a huge impact on the Net; and they must be protected.

-- The writer is a management guru and Editor, The Sunday Indian. 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

LEFT OUT IN THE COLD

ANURADHA DUTT

Under UPA rule, poor are denied shelter in winter

An adviser to Indo-Global Social Services Society, an NGO that is active in the field of social welfare, observes that the poor are not on the Government's priority list. This is an understatement in light of recent reports about civic agencies removing night shelters for the homeless at a point of time when they urgently require protection against the winter cold. 

Taking note of the lapse, the Supreme Court directed restoration of the shelters, forcing the concerned agencies to rectify the wrong. The court, censuring Delhi Development Authority for its insensitive action, ordered all States and Union territories to ensure that such shelters were not demolished during winter. It was a throwback to a similar demolition last winter, in the course of the beautification drive before the Commonwealth Games. Then, too, the Supreme Court's intervention on behalf of the homeless had led the concerned agencies to halt their assault on destitute people, dependent on State largesse for their survival during the cold winter months.

The two shelters that the court wanted to get restored were among 64, set up last year by the Delhi Government on its orders. The run-up to the Commonwealth Games was marked by beggars too being shunted out. The most offensive aspect of the cosmetic exercise was the complete recklessness with which the capital's custodians dislocated the dispossessed and those without a voice, in their obsessive bid to turn Delhi into a world class city. Whatever be the criteria for such a city, marginalising unfortunate denizens, especially those without a roof over their head, certainly cannot be justified on any counts. 

Considering that the Sheila Dixit-headed ruling regime, into its third term in the capital, works hard to project a humane face before Assembly election, the least it can do is provide basic necessities to homeless people. Setting up free community kitchens, called 'Aap ki rasoi', and then undoing the good by dismantling night shelters, and that, too, in the wrong season, exposes the Congress's duplicity with regard to the poor.

For, this party, which coined the slogans 'Garibi hatao' and 'Roti, kapda aur makaan', while abjectly failing to either dispel poverty or provide food, clothing and housing to vast numbers of the poor — whom it still assiduously cultivates as a vote bank — harks back to its old socialist credo, deployed during elections. Little matter that it initiated economic reforms that really served to erode the socialist ideal. The apex court's reference to the duty of the welfare State to take care of the poor is a reminder of how far we have travelled from our initial assurances, enshrined in the Constitution, of providing equal opportunities and economic security to all Indians. An estimated 37 per cent of the people, if not more, continue to live below the poverty line. They have no access to basic necessities such as two proper meals a day, drinking water, decent clothing, medical care and means of education. They live and die like flies. 

 

The Congress-led UPA's welfare initiatives such as the much hyped employment scheme, guaranteeing three months of work for daily wagers, is eclipsed by the massive swindling of public money through the 2G Spectrum scam, diverse housing and land frauds, undue corporate influence on framing Government policies, and abysmal failure to stem rampant corruption. The inability to curb inflation and rein in food prices, which have hit the poor hardest, exposes the hollowness of the coalition's socialist posturings. The ruling dispensation's anti-poor policies are most evident in the immense wastage of public funds, about `70,000 crore, on upgrading Delhi's infrastructure and building sport and residential complexes for the Commonwealth Games. It is indeed sad that while vast public areas and funds were set aside for such purposes, there are few sites and little money for night shelters. These are arbitrarily demolished and then restored only because of apex court directives. 

Neither the Chief Minister nor her minions in the administration or Delhi Cabinet seem to care that winter is especially cruel towards those without homes or means to procure a refuge during this trying time. Safely ensconced in their opulent abodes, they have no direct experience of the rigours of poverty. NGOs working for the welfare of destitute persons complain about the callous indifference of civic agencies to their plight. For instance, two night shelters in Chandni Chowk stand near garbage dumps, suggesting the poor deserve the worst. The right to lead a dignified life is denied to them, as much as opportunities to better their lot. This is indeed a ghastly travesty of the socialist ideal, invoked frequently by Congress leaders and the Gandhi family scion, Mr Rahul Gandhi, in particular.

They should do some honest soul-searching and ask themselves whether populist postures and actions such as sleeping in Dalit villages and eating with the poorest folk in backward villages can make up for failures in delivering on promises of ameliorating poverty. To demolish night shelters and still expect to be be taken seriously as redeemers of destitute people reveals grave distancing from reality. Those who presume to rule India must first understand that the poor and deprived belong here as much as the wealthy and privileged.

 

Rather, their requirements must have priority if India is to become a true leader in the comity of nations. 

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

CONGRESS NEEDS TO INTROSPECT

KALYANI SHANKAR

Rather than indulging in Opposition-bashing, the Congress should have utilised its plenary session to look at the issues plaguing the party and how to tackle them. It cannot remain complacent for long

The Congress president Sonia Gandhi observed in her presidential speech at the Burari AICC plenary session that the Congress party "has seen many ups and downs, many challenges…" and it is important for the party "to introspect the inheritance we have got, how far have we stayed steady on it". But has the Congress on its 125th anniversary made a realistic assessment of all the issues plaguing the party, including its weak organisation today in several States that compels it to be in coalition politics? That is the question. 

Ms Gandhi took a combative attitude during the session despite the fact that the plenary was held in the shadow of multi-crore scams and the rising prices of essential commodities have hit the popularity of the Government. In such a situation, instead of listing the achievements of the UPA Government at the session, the Congress ended up in Opposition-bashing and went on a tirade against corruption and communalism.

Over the years, the Congress-charm has waned as the party has lost its connection with the people at the grassroots level. Mr Rahul Gandhi has correctly pointed out that most people who join the party today are from influential families, who want their own advancement piggybacking politics. It has now become an uphill task for an ordinary Congress worker to move up the ladder without a Godfather. The party has become Delhi-centric and leaves all decision-making, including selecting Chief Ministers or the CWC members, to the central leadership. The last CWC election was held in Kolkata in 1997. The Parliamentary Board has been dispensed with. The core committee consisting of half-a-dozen leaders decides all issues. The worker-leader disconnect is growing by the day with money power playing a big role. Accessibility to leaders remains the biggest problem. Though Ms Gandhi has raised this issue at the session but reaching her or Mr Gandhi is even more difficult.

Therefore, the ultimate challenge for the leadership would be how to take the party organisation closer to the masses, how to remain relevant to a young generation and how to bring back the single party rule. It has to identify its political opponents and go about dealing with them in a methodical manner. 

However, there has been no indication to this effect from the session. Instead, the Congress took an easy way out by resorting to BJP bashing. The Congress has asked the Government to investigate into the links of the RSS and its sister organisations with terror. It is because the Congress knows that the RSS is the real power and the BJP has no cadre of its own.

No doubt, Ms Gandhi came up with a laudable four-point programme to deal with rampant corruption, but not a word was mentioned in her speech about the 2G Spectrum or any other scam — all pertaining to her own party. Another clever strategy was using the Prime Minister's 'Mr Clean' image as a shield to ward off Opposition's tirade. The question is not about the Prime Minister's integrity, but his inaction. Mr Singh's offer of submitting himself before the PAC came as a surprise, but it is too little, too late. Unless the Prime Minister personally intervenes to end the impasse, the Government is sure to face rough weather again at the Budget Session. 

Interestingly, the political resolution has kept the window open for future alliances with the regional parties. While it was hard on the BJP and the Left, it was soft against regional parties like the Biju Janata Dal, JD(U) and Telugu Desam and did not attack parties like the AIADMK and the JD(S). As for the SP and BSP — the two major rivals in Uttar Pradesh — the resolution was silent.

Every plenary session gives a direction to the party and the Burari message is to fight corruption and communalism. Ms Gandhi's directive to party leaders to reach out to people in villages is appreciated, but it is the implementation of this order that will bring the party back in its health. Her announcement that a Vichar Manthan Shivir would be held in the coming months to refresh the perspectives of party workers on national issues and review the functioning of the organisation also sounds good. After all, the next plenary will not be held before the 2015, as the party has just extended the term of the president to five years from three years. 

The Congress has several advantages being the Grand Old party, but only a strong leader can take it forward by involving the workers at all level. The road ahead is rough and Congress party has to work hard to get the dividend in next year's Assembly election and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. 

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

AS THE WEST SLEPT, ISLAMISTS PLOTTED

BARRY RUBIN

Despite consistent efforts to contain jihad, the West has been caught asleep over the rising tide of Islamism in West Asia that is frightfully winning in terms of either public opinion or actual control

What are the Lebanese figures on Al Qaeda? Only three per cent positive and 94 per cent negative! Why? Because Christians and Sunnis don't want that kind of regime, while Shias, who tend to support Hizbullah's Islamism, know that Al Qaeda hates Shias. So Arabs and Muslims are quite capable of opposing terrorists if they think the terrorists are against their own interests. They support terrorists who they think are doing things they like. This shows the limit of Western ability to change these attitudes.

Finally, here's a word on Turkey where public opinion is the opposite of that prevailing in Jordan. In Turkey, Only 5 per cent like Hizbullah (74 per cent negative), just 9 per cent like Hamas (67 per cent unfavourable), and merely 4 per cent are positive (74 per cent are hostile) on Al Qaeda. Yet the current Turkish Islamist regime is a big supporter of Hamas and Hizbullah. Clearly, supporting revolutionary Islamist groups — either through Islamism or the fact they are fighting Israel — is simply not popular in Turkey. Hamas and Hizbullah don't even do much better than Al Qaeda. So, Turkey's people are far more moderate than its Government, while in Egypt and Jordan the people are more radical than theirs. 

Let's look at two other indicators of attitudes: Islamism versus "modernisers" and attitudes towards Islamic punishments. The first point of interest in terms of the great ideological battle is that large proportions of people in these countries deny that such a struggle even exists! Only 20 per cent in Jordan, 31 per cent in Egypt, 53 per cent in Lebanon, and 52 per cent in Turkey acknowledge that there is a struggle. 

Why is this? One can't definitively tell. I suspect that they may want to avoid taking sides since they live in countries where democracy doesn't really prevail and authorities punish dissenters. Or perhaps they think that the Islamists are more capable of conducting modernisation or that the current regime is sufficiently Islamic.

Nevertheless, those who said that such a struggle does exist (remember this is between only 20 per cent in Jordan to 53 per cent in Lebanon of those asked) took the following sides: Jordan, 48-38 modernisers; Egypt, 59-27 Islamists; Lebanon, 84-15 modernists; Turkey, 74-11 modernists. 

Other than the truly horrifying figures in Egypt — which one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there — the numbers in Jordan are pretty scary as well. Almost 40 per cent favour an Islamist regime and they know that doesn't mean the current monarchy ruling Jordan. 

 

How to explain the other two countries? In Lebanon, Hizbullah is seen as a champion of the Shia community. It is supported for "ethnic" reasons more than because people want an Islamic Republic. Of course, Sunnis have to take into account that if Lebanon were to become an Islamic Republic it would be a Shia one. Lebanese like to think of themselves as modern, too.

As for Turkey, while the ruling AKP Government has a hard core of supporters at roughly 30 per cent, even most of these people don't want an Islamist state, just a more Islamic-oriented one. That's why the AKP can only go so far in its Islamisation or risk having the people turn against the regime.

Finally there is the attitude towards Islamic punishments. Again, the outcome in Egypt and Jordan is very revealing. In Egypt, 82 per cent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 per cent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 per cent favour the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

 

I would expect that these attitudes don't differ much from public opinion in Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan. The figures for Jordan are roughly the same: 70 per cent (stoning), 58 per cent (whipping/amputation), 86 per cent (death for converts).

Again, the numbers for Lebanon and Turkey are quite different: Lebanon, 23 per cent (stoning), 13 per cent (whipping/amputation), 6 per cent (death for converts); Turkey, 16 per cent (stoning), 13 per cent (whipping/amputation), 5 per cent (death for converts). Yet Turkey and Lebanon are ruled by regimes which are in the Islamist camp, that is, they view themselves as close to the Iran-Syria-Hamas-Hizbullah alliance. 

It is also important to keep in mind that this poll demonstrates that Muslims are not innately radical or pro-terrorist. Their attitudes, while certainly conditioned by Islam, depends on the same kind of historical, social and political factors that determine attitudes in other countries. The problem is the specific interpretation of Islam in a given place and time.

But what this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible. So overwhelming is the support for this movement that there is nothing the West can do except ensure the current Governments remain in power. As for Lebanon, there is a strong basis for resisting incorporation into the Iran-Syria empire, and in Turkey — where there are free elections — the current regime might well be overthrown.

Remember that Egypt, Jordan and other Arab Governments — notably Saudi Arabia — are so opposed to Iran not only because they hate that country's non-Arab, Shia, radical Islamist standpoint, but also since they fear its growing power will set off revolutions within their own countries. 

The bottom line is that in all four of these countries the radical Islamist side is winning either in terms of public opinion or actual control. And the West is basically asleep in recognising that threat.

-- The writer is director of the GLORIA Center, Tel Aviv, and editor of the MERIA Journal. Concluded. 

 

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MAIL TODAY

COMMENT

PROBE THE INDRESH ANGLE IN THE TERROR TRAIL PROPERLY

 

THURSDAY'S interrogation of senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leader Indresh Kumar is an important milestone in the investigation of Hindutva outfits for carrying out terror attacks across the country.

 

This marks a subtle departure from the rather cautious approach that the investigative agencies had adopted towards Mr Kumar, which was evident in the chargesheet prepared by the Rajasthan anti- terror squad ( ATS) in October, that mentioned him as a conspirator but not as an accused.

 

The recent successes of the investigative agencies, such as the arrests of Swami Asimanand — allegedly a key conspirator in the attacks — and Gujarat based activists Mukesh Vasani and Harshadbhai Solanki show that agencies like the CBI and the ATSes of Maharashtra and Rajasthan are coordinating their actions more effectively.

 

Even the Madhya Pradesh ATS, which was earlier accused of dragging its feet, has got its act together as can be seen in their successful investigation of the mysterious murder of terror accused Sunil Joshi.

 

While a number of RSS functionaries have been arrested in connection with the terror attacks on Mecca Masjid, Malegaon and Ajmer, Mr Kumar's case lends an added dimension to the investigation. If indeed his involvement is proven, it would mean that the Hindutva terror network is not restricted to a few radicalised lower and middle level RSS functionaries, but extends to the top echelons of the organisation.

 

]Mr Kumar's assertion of his patriotism, in an animated press conference before Thursday's grilling session, seems to be his last refuge against the charge of being involved in terrorist activities. The hollowness of this rhetoric is symbolic of the larger erosion of the RSS's nationalistic garb that has taken place with the arrests of a number of its functionaries for carrying out attacks on Indian citizens.

 

HELP KIDS JUNK THIS FOOD

THE Delhi High Court has admitted a public interest writ seeking a ban on sale of junk food products and aerated drinks in schools. For long, the issue of school canteens vending energy- dense food and drinks such as potato chips, burgers, samosas and colas has been hanging fire.

 

The education and health departments which are supposed to formulate and enforce school- level health and nutrition policies have been sleeping over it. Most schools do not monitor the type and quality of food sold in their canteens nor do they encourage parents to pack healthy tiffin boxes for their wards.

 

On top of this, schools have tie ups with junk food makers, which these days are masquerading some of their products as ' healthy' food and pushing them through sponsorships and other such inducements to schools.

 

As a result, the rates of obesity among school children in Delhi have been rising. Childhood obesity is a major health risk and experts believe nearly 70 per cent of obese children grow up to become obese adults.

 

However, a ban may not be the sole answer.

 

Sustained health and nutritional education of both parents and kids as well as making available healthy alternatives in school canteens would go a long way in addressing the issue.

 

VENALITY AS A QUALIFICATION

THE report in M AIL T ODAY about guardians of marriageable women seeking out candidates who have made it to Uttar Pradesh provincial services on the basis of their potential to earn bribe is reflective of a prevailing mindset in the Gangetic belt. That the prevalence of corruption is not a new phenomenon will be clear to those who have read Namak ka Daroga , Munshi Premchand's famous story.

 

What seems to have happened in the era of liberalisation is that while the feudal craze for power wielding babus persists in this part of the country, growing habits of conspicuous consumption and newer ways to spend money mean the instinct to misuse official authority has got a boost.

 

It is not often remarked that corruption flourishes in this country not only because venal officials rarely get punished, but also since we as a society largely sanction it. What better proof do we need of this than the list of worthies who have been taped trying to further the designs of a certain Ms Radia.

 

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            MAIL TODAY

COLUMN

THE SCAM IN AVIATION IS AS BAD AS THE 2G SCANDAL

BY PULLARAO PENTAPATI

 

THE MUCH– touted Open Sky policy was to usher in the glorious age of Indian aviation.

 

There would be cheap and efficient airports with an array of choice of low cost carriers. But we appear to be repeatedly mired in problems and the aviation sector remains stuck.

 

A few rich billionaires have cornered the Open- Sky policy. We need an urgent course- correction and not temporary band- aid. Like telecom, the aviation sector has also given a severe dose of bitter medicine to the Indian consumer.

 

The issue of predatory pricing has once again lifted the curtain from the mess which cannot be hidden with slick public relations stunts. You cannot have Low Cost air travel with high cost noncompetitive airports, and a cartel of airline companies. The Government is very poorly equipped to tackle monopolies. All that the Competition Commission of India ( CCI) has done is to write to the Civil Aviation ministry that the airlines may be operating as a cartel.

 

Problems

 

The problems have arisen because, first, new private airports were largely built with User- Development Funds paid by passengers with little investment by private operators who bagged the permits.

 

The media played up the 7- star like looks of these airports. But we have to pay 7- star prices, which jacks up the cost of air travel. You cannot have Low- Cost travel from 7- star airports. World- wide, large cities have multiple airports, which create room for low cost fliers. But in India, the Open Sky policy has created a system where for the next 60 years, a second airport cannot come up anywhere within 150 miles of the current one. One cannot expect costly private airports to charge low rentals and now passengers are being bled. The public is being held hostage to costly airports.

 

Second, the Airport Authority of India has ceded total control to private airport operators. In September, 2010, the 4 private airports of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Bangalore accounted for 5.72 million passengers as against the two government airports of Kolkata and Chennai totaling 1.70 million passengers.

 

This means that private high- cost airports control nearly 70 per cent of all major traffic.

 

Third, Air India which acted as a buffer against the predatory pricing and exploitation by private airlines has been emasculated, either by design or otherwise.

 

As Air India was operating widely, private airlines were mindful of their ticket pricing. The direct beneficiaries of

 

Air India's diminution are the private airlines, which now have a free hand at cartelisation and un- fettered exploitation.

 

Fourthly, private airlines have obviously come to informal agreements to compete as little as possible. You will find that their flights do not clash on less commercially dense routes and on metro- routes, they carefully schedule timings and number of flights. It is as if they belong to one holding company.

 

Fifth, private airlines and airport owners dominate and over- awe regulatory officials of the Ministry. Just as TRAI was helpless before private telecom giants, the Ministry and agencies like DGCA, AAI, CISF are helpless. No official dares initiate any action. Even the predatory pricing issue was taken up after the media raised it. The Ministry was a silent observer. But even when they raise issues, they couch it with velvet words claiming they have no power, only the ability to persuade. The lure of postretirement jobs is also a strong incentive to keep quiet and cooperate.

 

Voodoo

 

George Bush Sr. famously coined the term " voodoo economics", meaning poor economics. The Ministry's reaction to the predatory price- fixing by airlines is pure " voodoo economics". Any undergraduate economics student can tell you the following — The price of goods in market economies is determined by demand and supply. Shortage pushes up prices and automatically, supplies will be increased to meet demand. Then prices fall. That is how the Open Skies policy of the government is supposed to operate. Now we have shortage of plane seats and airlines do not talk of increasing flights. They only talk pricing. Neither is the government demanding flights be increased. This itself is a distortion of the entire Open Skies policy and its theories. If the number of flights are increased even marginally, prices will fall. Obviously, the Government is in some manner conniving with private airlines. At one time, there was genuine competition and pricing was competitive. But now there must be collusion since flights have not kept pace with demand. This is a situation of imperfect competition.

 

Airlines offer some tickets at low prices to comfort public opinion that tickets are very cheap, provided you plan travel ahead. But after a few tickets are sold at low prices, airlines jack up prices astronomically.

 

You can travel from Delhi to London and back for the price of a oneway economy ticket from Delhi to Mumbai.

 

And the Government says it was unaware of this predatory pricing? About 6 months ago, the divergence between the cheapest ticket and the costliest was about 400 per cent. Now, the range varies from 1200 to 1500 percent.

 

Collusion

 

Instead of arranging more flights, either through airlines or getting foreign charter airlines to meet the demand, our government intervened in a strange way. The government says that the prices of tickets sold should not exceed some figure.

 

Airlines will heed that demand. But then, how many seats will be available at low prices, and how many at the highest possible limit? Monopolies and cartels operate in such a way that the airlines will maximise revenues by ensuring that most tickets are sold at the highest price limit. The consumers will suffer as they have fewer lowpriced tickets and fewer flights to choose.

 

In fact, the government is helping airlines maximise revenues. Airline owners are feigning grief when they are actually jubilant, because the government has not insisted that supply be increased and more flights organised.

 

The government and private sector know fully well that demand exceeds supply.

 

Good market economics should mean that private airlines operate more planes and meet demand. But when there is a cartel, there is no need to enhance supply. The Ministry of Civil Aviation is not naïve and can direct Air India to start operating wet- charter flights on metro routes. Private airlines will then immediately get more planes themselves or they will lose market share. But as long as the government observes this conspiracy of silence on more flights, the public will be exploited. No middle class person can fly to meet urgent personal emergencies now.

 

Since the Open Sky policy of the government has been subverted into a cartel the on- going aviation scam involving airports and airlines is as bad as the telecom scam. The public will suffer for decades due to faulty decisions. But the government can still rectify the long term devastation that will visit the aviation sector.

 

There can be Low Cost Airports and more entrants in the airlines sector; after all, how can there be Low Cost air travel without Low Cost Airports? The Telecom Scam was done clumsily. But aviation is slick all around.

 

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MAIL TODAY

THE LAHORE LOG

PAK- CHINA RELATIONS SANS THE PROPAGANDA

BY NAJAM SETHI

 

THE THREE day visit of China's prime minister Wen Jiabao to Pakistan in mid December has elicited the usual trumpets and mutual accolades about the everlasting " friendship" between the two countries that is " deeper than the ocean and warmer than the sun". But it is important to sift propaganda from fact and friendship from interest. More critically, China's political advice to Pakistan regarding " neighbourhood diplomacy" must be seriously considered if regional strategic balances are to be maintained.

 

The propaganda is that China's premier brought along a 200- strong business delegation to sign MOUs worth US$ 35 billion with the public and private sector of Pakistan, creating the impression that a " paradigm change" is underway whereby China is about to replace the West as the biggest " foreign investor" and trading partner of Pakistan. The fact is that most of the MOUs are not worth the paper they are written on and Pakistani businessmen were hastily assembled at the last minute and mingled with their Chinese counterparts without having done any homework about mutually profitable projects.

 

The fact is that China is neither making any significant foreign investments in Pakistan, nor handing out money to Pakistan.

 

Only US$ 400 million was pledged as a " soft loan" that is tied to a couple of projects like the Karakoram Highway that are of strategic importance to China itself and all the money will go to line the pockets of Chinese contractors and labour working on these projects. Only US$ 10 million has been coughed up for flood rehabilitation and reconstruction ( compare with US$ 300 million for the same cause by the United States). Noteworthy joint- venture projects inside Pakistan are conspicuous by their absence.

 

The fact also is that China's premier and businessmen were focused on India, their first stop- over, where they clinched agreements to raise the volume of their trade from US$ 60 billion to US$ 100 billion per year in the next few years.

 

MOST CRITICALLY, the Pakistan government, political pundits and media know- alls have failed to highlight the core advice consistently given by China to Pakistan on how to conduct diplomacy in the neighbourhood. The Chinese proverb quoted by Mr Wen Jiabao that " a ' distant neighbour' is more important than a ' close relative' has been interpreted to signify Pakistan's " closeness" to China, conveniently omitting to note the priceless value that China attaches to ' close neighbours' in relation to ' close relatives'! Therefore it bears pointing out that China resolved a long time ago to compromise, settle or put in cold- storage its territorial border disputes with its ' close neighbours', including the USSR, India, Vietnam,

 

]Cambodia, Laos and Korea and normalise its relations with them so that mutually beneficial highways of trade and commerce could be built to create interdependencies, paving the way for reduction of trust deficits and settlement of thornier disputes. In the same spirit, China has constantly advised Pakistani governments and policy makers to put the dispute of Kashmir with India on the back burner and forge ahead with trade and commerce on the basis of interests and interdependencies, advice that the Pakistani military establishment has constantly spurned in favour of a sumzero conflict strategy that echoes the mantra: India must solve Kashmir to Pakistan's satisfaction before relations can be normalised. No wonder, then, that when Dr Fehmida Mirza, the Speaker of the National Assembly, profusely thanked China for its unstinting support for Pakistan's position on the Kashmir dispute ( words doubtless added to her speech by the " ISI- led Mandarins of the Foreign Office), Mt Wen Jiabao consciously omitted any reference in his speech to Pakistan's Kashmir dispute with India, a polite snub that was conveniently ignored by all and sundry! To be sure, of course, China's " friendship" with Pakistan is gratefully acknowledged, even if it serves China's strategic interests more than ours. China has PROPAGANDA

 

]loaned Pakistan the money and manpower to build the Karakoram Highway and Gwador Port, both aimed at penetrating commercial markets in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

 

CHINA has helped transfer technology to build second tier tanks and fighter aircraft in Pakistan but these have hardly offset our demand for higher tech weapons from the West like F- 16s, Cobra Helicopters and Agosta submarines, and front- line tanks from the Ukraine. China is helping Pakistan build nuclear reactors with Chinese loans and technical know- how even though there is some doubt about their true value to us both as suppliers of energy and plutonium for nuclear weapons ( our nuclear weapons program is based on enriched uranium).

 

Significantly, China's avowed pro- Pakistan tilt did not stop India from helping to dismember Pakistan in 1971, nor did it stop India from retaliating against Pakistani- provoked wars in 1965 and 1999.

 

Pakistan's real " gain" from friendship with China is Beijing's opposition to a permanent veto- empowered seat for India in the UN Security Council and its assistance in encouraging North Korea to part with missile technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, both policies being firmly grounded in China's own national security interests.

 

]China claims a " strategic relationship" with both Pakistan and India. But Pakistan and India have no such claims on each other. Far from it, they are constantly hovering on the brink of conflict.

 

]This should serve as an eye- opener to Pakistan, especially in view of China's burgeoning US$ 100 billion surplus trade relationship with India along with its stunning silence on the Kashmir dispute.

 

]The old adage is truer now than ever before: when push comes to shove, interests and not friendships matter in international relations.

 

The writer is the editor of The Friday Times

 

Dairy of a social butterfly

 

MONI MOHSIN

NOWDAYS Janoo has a new bean in his bonnet. It's about the Americans and the SIA and the ICI. Or was it CIA and the ISI? Khair, whatever. Apparently some Pathans from Waziristan have announced that these, these Americans who are working in Pakistan are under covered agents of CIA and they have given their real names also. So now every beardo weirdo can go and do hello hi with CIA agents and also behead them, and shoot them and blow them up, if they feel like.

 

The question is, says Janoo, how did these tribals from Waziristan know? Bhai, I said, the media wallahs tau know everyone's underwear size, let alone CIA agents' real names. They must've told the Pathans.

 

No, said Janoo, this information is not as easy to come by as your or my underwear size. Someone in the know has deliberately leaked it. And those Someones think they're very clever, double dealing as always, said Janoo. ' But what they don't seem to realise is that the minute the Americans withdraw aid, our economy will go into free fall. The dollar will cross a hundred rupees. You won't have enough petrol to reverse out of the garage and inflation will hit the roof. Meat will become a thou a kilo and sugar will become scarce as platinum.' Khair meat tau main khaati nahin — because of cholestroils na — but the dollar going up is a bit of a prob because I have to go to New York next year na. My friend Sammy says that vahaan peh jo sastay designer clothes miltay hain, you can't get anywhere, not even in the mangal bazaars of Bangkok. So the Someones who are behind all of us this better not do any more chalaakis, I swear, otherwise, all my shopping plans — those Prada shoes, those Moo Moo bags, that Space NK make up — will come to not.

 

But let's talk about something funner. Yesterday we received three wedding kay cards. One came in a box, one in a cylinder and one in a kimkhab ka bag. Janoo looked at them and said: ' Jesus! What madness is this?' I didn't say because crack kay saath kya argue karna, but I tau thought they were just fab. The box one was thick as a pack of taash — so many functions they had — the cylinder one had inside a satin scroll like a royal farmaan and the zari one had diamontes entrusted on it.

 

I think so for Kulchoo's wedding I'll send the invites by messenger pigeons. They will flutter in through the windows.

 

And to their little red legs will be attached little gold rings and inside those will be tiny invites written in real gold. I don't want to blow my own strumpet but honestly, ideas tau meray say koi lay . . .

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

SHIFT THE TRACKS

 

The Rajasthan high court's stay on the operation of a 2008 Act providing reservations for special and economically backward classes in the state, including the Gujjar community, is welcome. Questioning the move to increase the quantum of reservation beyond 50 per cent, the court directed the state government to supply data to justify its position. Coming in the backdrop of the latest round of Gujjar agitation that has disrupted train schedules and hurt tourism in Rajasthan - and forced the Centre to dispatch paramilitary troops to restore law and order - it once again highlights the shortcomings of our reservation policy. 

 

The Gujjar demand for special quotas in education and government jobs stems from the earlier BJP government's decision to include Jats of the state in the OBC category. The Gujjars, OBCs themselves, feared that the politically and economically influential Jats would corner reservation benefits. Hence their initial demand for inclusion in the ST category. However, this brought them in conflict with the Meena community. With the court staying the special reservation provision, the Gujjar demand has now shifted to a 5 per cent quota within quota in the OBC category. All of this illustrates the fact that the reservation system is essentially a zero sum game - providing quotas to one community necessarily means taking away benefits from others. And as more communities jostle for a piece of the reservation pie, agitations like the one by Gujjars become inevitable. 

The solution lies in growing the pie, rather thinking up more ingenious ways of dividing it. The reservation policy was never meant to be implemented in perpetuity. At the time of its conception, it was supposed to run for a decade. However, the list of those entitled to quotas has only increased over more than half a century. Even for those covered by reservations, the system hasn't worked as planned. In all categories, reservation benefits have come to be cornered by a thin creamy layer. 

The government, essentially, can never square the circle in a manner that will satisfy all groups. No matter how many jobs it reserves, we will never be able to address the aspirations of the vast majority of those belonging to backward communities through reservations. Rather, we need to expand opportunity by emphasising social development policies that target all-round growth. We need more schools and colleges to ensure universal access to education. We need to create more jobs so that the benefits go to all communities. The government is on the right track with programmes like Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan and NREGA, but these need to be implemented well. It also needs to facilitate the private sector in creating jobs.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

IT'S THEIR BUSINESS

 

At first glance, the government seems to have done a U-turn on imposing a mandatory 2 per cent expenditure from company profits on corporate social responsibility. The Companies Bill reportedly won't have this provision. Look closer, and it's a case of "mandating without mandating" as an industry voice describes it. The reworked proposal , it's said, asks firms to have a formal CSR policy targeting a 2 per cent spend, and to furnish details of funds going to social causes in annual reports. In other words, while keeping up a technical pretence of not legally arm-twisting India Inc, the Centre seeks to exert heavy moral pressure by stipulating disclosures if not actual expenditure. To quote the corporate affairs minister, CSR spending won't be "voluntary" or "mandatory" but "somewhere in between"! Why this grey area, unless the government wants leeway to play guilt-inducing big brother? 

Social spending should be self-willed, not least because Indian firms have a good record already. To boost private participation in social service further, the government should offer incentives such as "CSR credits" or tax benefits. At the same time, the legal system can rap firms that violate, say, green norms or cause other forms of public damage. As the finance minister conceded only recently, corporate social conscience can't be parachute-dropped by politicians or lawcourts. Companies themselves know that CSR makes good sense, winning hearts and building brands. But for CSR to not be merely decorative or purely manipulative in the sense of deflecting attention from bad practices, companies' main focus must be on core operations. What counts first is corporate performance driven by efficiency, ethics and good governance. That's how business keeps faith with shareholders, delivers quality products and services to consumers, creates jobs and spurs economic growth. And that's also how it best benefits society.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

TOP ARTICLE

THE TALLEST CRICKETER...

BORIA MAJUMDAR

 

Minutes after Sachin scaled the peak of 50 Test centuries, the inevitable comparison surfaced again: is he the greatest or is he only second best to the legendary Sir Donald Bradman? Polls were conducted, arguments put forth and reasons given encouraging the indulgence of fans from across the world. Some, however, have disapproved of this comparison. Their reasoning is simple - such a comparison has little basis in fact and it cannot or should not be encouraged for it does a disservice to both these legends. 

However, sport, across time, has thrived on such comparisons. They encourage debate and animate fans, provoke emotions and tickle sentiments. They make sport what it is, a passionate connect that enraptures men and women across continents. Needless to say, such arguments are endless. Never can there be any conclusive answer as to who is the greatest. But they are fodder for a fan's fantasy, increasing his connection with his icon and allowing him to be part of a sport he loves. It is the only way to give the fan agency and bring him into the ambit of the sport that is integral to his life. 

Pele or Maradona, Fischer or Spassky, Messi or Ronaldo, Sampras or Agassi, Federer or Nadal, Ali or Frazier; these comparisons are part of sporting folklore. We can further extend them to Lewis or Johnson, Phelps or Thorpe, Spitz or Biondi. These debates add to the aura of the star, increase their brand value and encourage literature that accords these icons immortality. 

Comparisons aren't restricted to sport. Amitabh Bachchan or Shah Rukh Khan, Kamal Hassan or Rajinikanth, Hema Malini or Rekha: these debates are the stuff of legend. Are they just inane talk? Certainly not. Rather, they are the fans' estimates of their revered icons, arguments that often defy logic but are evidence of the kind of euphoria these special men and women generate in the minds of millions. 

Sport, it is certain, will not be the same without these comparisons. Rooney, Messi or Ronaldo, the chatter isn't restricted to the UK, Argentina or Portugal. Rather, soccer fans around the world have a say in who should win the golden boot. It is the sports lover's only connect with the icon, his reason to wear the number 10 shirt with 'Messi' emblazoned. 

These comparisons are the advertisers' delight. The 100-metre race at the 1988 Seoul Olympics was billed as the race of the century because it pitted two of the best of all times, Lewis and Johnson. That Johnson was caught doping and lost his medal is a different matter altogether. But during the race, it had captured world attention when millions, with no connection with these two men, tuned in to watch them in action. 

The same act was repeated when Usain Bolt won the 100-metre gold at Beijing against the likes of Asafa Powell and Tyson Gay in 2008. It was the comparison between Bolt, Powell and Gay that inevitably translated into a commercial windfall and the event, a brisk 10-second affair, involved the spending of Rs 250 crore in advertising only - a figure sufficient to demonstrate the economic potential of such comparisons. 

Coming back to Sachin, he has actually played over 1,300 days of international cricket, a statistic staggering enough to send a chill down the spine of any contemporary sportsman. Add to this unbelievable statistic 32,000 international runs, 100-plus catches, 96 international centuries and 21 years of incessant pressure from a nation of a billion-plus which looks to cricket as a survival mechanism, and you get a package the cricket world has never before seen and will not perhaps see again in the next few decades. 

When India last played at Lord's in 2007, hundreds of MCC members had turned up to watch Sachin score a century. You could hear the murmur the moment you stepped out of the St Johns Wood tube station and over glasses of champagne at the tavern or the coronation gardens. Even at the cost of the English not winning the match, they wanted Sachin to get his name up on the Lord's honours board, something even Sir Donald wouldn't have experienced in his career. 

In fact, it is perhaps time we stop comparing Sachin with his cricketing contemporaries or predecessors. He is a sportsman, he is an athlete, and he needs to be spoken of in terms of men and women who have performed feats in sport believed to be impossible. 

It is time to debate whether Sachin is one of the greatest to have played sport. Can we justly compare him to the legends of football, swimming or tennis, Olympic and world champions, men and women who have given fans incredible joy with feats of incredible brilliance? The only cricketer who gets a standing ovation every time he steps out to bat on an Australian field, he has to be seen in the light of achievements thought not to be possible, and that has hardly to do with cricket. Michael Schumacher, Diego Maradona, Michael Jordan, Sergey Bubka, Gary Kasparov? Cricket, it is time to argue, is just the game Sachin plays. But how can he love the game so much? Sachin Tendulkar won't know the answer to that. And we will spend our lives baffled. 

 

The writer is senior research fellow, University of Central Lancashire. 

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

Q & A

'UNIVERSE IS NOT DEFINED BY ONE BEGINNING AND END'

 

Cosmologist Roger Penrose of Oxford University and author of the recently released book, The Cycles of Time, was in Delhi to deliver the Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar Centennial Lecture (Centre for Philosophy and Foundations of Science) on a new view of black holes and the universe. He talks toNarayani Ganesh on his new theory of the origin and future of the universe: 

 

What your view of the universe? 

My conformal cyclic cosmology theory is a departure from the Big Bang theory of the universe that is generally perceived to mean that the universe burst forth in a Big Bang from an infinitesimal point and then expanded by inflation. However, what i'm saying is that the universe is not defined by one beginning and end but goes through an infinite succession of beginnings and endings into the remote future, without a reversal or what is called crunching. It never collapses, it goes on expanding and it's a cycle. 

Could you explain this cyclical process? 

The cycle from the infinitely expanded universe to the Big Bang of the next aeon is better explained with classical mathematical equations. However, you could say verbally that the universe is undergoing accelerating expansion. This is best understood in terms of what Einstein referred to as the cosmological constant (he used this term in 1917 though for the wrong reasons) - he was hoping to have a universe that was static in time. He later withdrew his idea but it could help us best explain the expanding, remote future of our universe where, following a succession of Big Bangs in different aeons, there is hardly anything left because particles now have little or no mass. No mass, no scale, right? As it continues to expand, it becomes indistinguishable from the Big Bang of the next aeon; the universe comes to lose its memory - it `forgets' how big it really is. So the big and small, long-term and short-term, all become equivalent. In my scheme of things, there is no collapse; one universe leads to another. One way of discerning this is to find traces of energy bursts that get released when two galaxies collide and their black holes merge - as it might one day happen with the Milky Way and the Andromeda! My colleague Vahe Gurzadyan of Yerevan State University in Armenia studied the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and found signals in a circle that seem to corroborate my theory. However, you do need to see more of these concentric circles and perhaps more studies and analyses would reveal more of information of previous Big Bangs and universes. 

Would studying concentric rings on the CMB help ascertain timelines of the universe's previous incarnations, much like tree rings reveal the age of the tree? 

Come to think of it like that, perhaps! There's an awful lot of information in the CMB and it requires study. My model is driven by the Second Law of Thermodynamics that says randomness is increasing all the time. 

How different is your view of the universe from that of Stephen Hawking's? 

Hawking is playing a crucial role; the original idea he put forward is that black holes will eventually swallow all the randomness; that the black holes will radiate and disappear and when they disappear - what they call the Black Hole paradox - he says information swallowed by black holes is lost. He later said that the information comes back with radiation and here i disagree. 

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

APPROVING GORMINT

JUG SURAIYA 

 

 GOVERNMENT APPROVED DRINKING PLACE. It's a big sign, right outside the National Media Centre, the housing society in Gurgaon, Haryana, where i live. Gurgaon, indeed all of Haryana, is full of drinking places which can boast of having the approval, officially certified, of the government, which in Haryana and elsewhere in India is called gormint.

 

Judging by the brisk business the drinking place near my house does, gormint approval is very much a plus point for a booze shop. At all hours of the day and through most of the night the place is full of customers cheerfully getting themselves sloshed, secure in the knowledge that their elbow-bending is fully gormint-approved, as doubtless will be their hangover the following day.

 

People often complain that our gormint - not just the Haryana gormint, but the gormint of India as a whole - doesn't do anything for us. They crib that our gormint doesn't give us bijli, or roads, or schools, or hospitals. It doesn't hatao garibi, or give food to the hungry, or jobs to the jobless. So what does our gormint spend all its time doing? ask such critics. After all, ours is not a small, economy-size gormint but a formidably large entity whose appearance in no way suggests that it's ever stinted on its calories since it came into being 60-odd years ago. So what does this supersized sarkar of ours actually do?

 

Silly question. And when people ask it of me, as they frequently do, i point to the big sign near my house: GOVERNMENT APPROVED DRINKING PLACE. No cakewalk, going about approving drinking places. Must take a lot of time, and effort, and energy, and dedication. Bijli, roads, schools? Yeah, yeah. We'll come to all that stuff later, for crissake, once we've got all the really important stuff out of the way. Let's get our priorities right, OK? Now, where exactly did you say this new drinking place was that requires our approval?

 

And it's not just drinking places that our gormint so busily goes about approving. Visit the Taj or any other tourist spot in the country. You'll be swamped by a gaggle of official guides-cum-photographers proclaiming their gormint-approved credentials with ear-splitting insistence. Hullo, hullo, Misterji, myself am gormint guide, coming showing you secret inscription on backside of tomb and taking foto making dome of Taj look like resting on palm of hand! Hullo, hullo, Misterji! Gormint guide!

 

Having put in a full day's work approving drinking places, our tireless sarkar has somehow managed to find the time to give its stamp of commendation to all these tourist touts. Nor is this all. Go to any crowded marketplace in any city or town. You'll see signs for a whole host of products and services, from dhaba food to SEX CLINIC FOR ALL SEXUAL PROBLEMS, with the enticing postscript: Govt Approved. Our gormint strikes again.

 

There seems to be no end to all the things of which our gormint approves. While it is true that its track record in setting up and running its own schools has been patchy at best, what with many sarkari pathshalas having no teachers or textbooks, our gormint appears to have been unstinting in approving all manner of educational institutions which bear the legend Govt Approved: INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT BIJNESS, ENGLISH COCHING CENTER, KIDZ CORNER NARSARY SCHOOL. Gormint approved, one and all. Or at least, advertised as such.

 

In fact, there seems to be only one product - or is it a service? - to which for some inexplicable reason our gormint has not as yet given its official approval. This is strange because the product - or is it service? - in question has become the biggest growth industry in today's India. Yup, i'm on the lookout for the first Scam, Govt Approved.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

OUR TAKE

WALK THE LINE, WITH CARE

 

The Congress this week saw little need to veer off an economic agenda that has delivered significant political gains to the party. The economic resolution adopted by the All India Congress Committee at its plenary in Delhi admits some course correction may be needed in its "inclusive growth" agenda, but these would be in the nature of slight over- or under-steer and not a radical departure from its manifestos for the previous two elections. Inflation is seen as an unfortunate side effect in an economy firing on all cylinders through much of the deepest global recession in living memory. Alongside an helpful explanation to party workers of what is causing prices to spiral — demands-supply gaps, income supports for farm output, and the international commodity cycle — the resolution exhorts the government to tackle inflation with "candour and courage". In controlled doses, inflation is a small price India pays for its scorching growth rate, which the party is committed to accelerating over the next decade.

 

Key to this strategy is a renewed focus on manufacturing, which has lost out to services as the country's principal driver of growth. The Congress sees foreign investment leading the resurgence in Indian industry on the lines of what China has achieved. However, the economy's capacity to absorb investments in plant and machinery on a scale similar to China's is critically dependent on its ability to ramp up physical infrastructure in a reasonable timeframe. Given the State's delivery record on this count, private industry will have to play a far bigger role in building ports, highways and power plants than has been attempted so far. The resolution calls for a changed mindset for the government from being provider to being facilitator in this process, a call that must be heeded. The Congress is aware of the political price to be paid if it cannot be an honest broker to the dispossessed in this process.

 

Thus the stress on inclusiveness, be it land acquisition from farmers or the mineral rights of tribals. The growing list of entitlements in health, education and livelihood pack a powerful punch inside the ballot box, so the Congress scales up its ambitions on welfare through income redistribution. A return to large government investments in agriculture to improve productivity is long overdue and sits firmly between 'inclusive' and 'growth' in the party's tagline. At some point in the next 10 years, India will be well on its industrial revolution, and it will require a social framework that can support it. The Congress may not be imagining a brave new world. But it does see some of what is coming in the "decade of social and economic justice".

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

THE PUNDIT

ID MUBARAK

 

Uttar Pradesh politics has always been about playing one identity against the other. But over the last few years, without the usual lustre and bombast of caste, sub-caste and community politics, the UP political scene seems a bit cut-rate wan. So imagine our relief when coming a day of each other, two incidents brought back the colour of identity politics that the heartland is so famous for. First was the kerfuffle that actually took place in Delhi, outside Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's residence.

 

Apparently two sets of Congress delegations from UP came to blows after one Congresswoman from UP was allegedly mocked by another for wearing a pink sari. "And so?" you ask. Well, the taunts came because pink is known to be UP chief minister and BSP leader's favourite colour and the Congress lady in pink, according to her accuser, was kowtowing to Behenji instead of giving her 'cent per cent' loyalty to Soniaji.

 

A day later, it was the turn of Samajwadi Party returnee Azam Khan to disrupt Amartya Sen's theory of multiplicity of identities. Mr Azad, in true SP-style, allegedly observed at a seminar on 'The status of Muslims in India' that the Congress had "only one Muslim to showcase — Ghulam Nabi Azad — who hailed from Kashmir and not from India". While coming from Mr Khan, the statement won't exactly set the Pakistanis taking direct flights to the United Nations, it does highlight the nuances about identity in UP politics. For Mr Khan, Mr Azad is not really a representative of the Indian Muslim as he's from Kashmir, thereby making India's first prime minister's 'Indianness' shaky. What next from the UP heartland? Someone accusing Mulayam Singh Yadav of being communal just because he was once friends with Kalyan Singh?

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

PEOPLE'S REPUBLICS

JOHN LEE, 

 

There are growing doubts over the sustainability of China's authoritarian model of development and greater recent praise for India's democratic version. In October, US President Barack Obama's economic adviser Larry Summers told a meeting of business leaders in Mumbai that the world in 2040 would be talking, not about a Washington or Beijing consensus, but a 'Mumbai Consensus' on economic development in the future. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao did not go as far as Summers in elevating the Indian approach above China's. But the premier ended his three-day visit to India last week by declaring that India's rise had enhanced the confidence and strength of all developing countries.

 

Despite praise for both systems, the common wisdom is that the Chinese approach is superior to the Indian one in one respect: poverty reduction. After all, in 1980, around 80% of people in both countries lived in poverty. In India, it is now around 22% compared to about 12% in China. The assumption is that China's State-led authoritarian model, although more menacing than India's chaotic democracy, allow its leaders to plan China's rise in a more ordered and manageable environment, to the ultimate benefit of its poor. But such an argument is less

 

compelling than it would first appear when we take a closer look at what actually occurred since China began its reforms in December 1978.

 

Because China has been growing at almost 10% since 1980 (except for the 'Tiananmen Interlude' period from 1989-1992), the assumption is that the country has followed one model towards prosperity and poverty alleviation. In fact, China has actually gone through two significantly distinct reform periods.

 

The first was from 1979 until the Tiananmen protests in 1989. After the disasters of centralised Maoism, Deng Xiaoping did two big things. First, power was decentralised and local officials were given much more power to make economic decisions. Second, the four-fifths of the population who were peasants were allowed to use their land in any way they wanted and sell their products at market prices.

 

This so-called 'household responsibility' structure gave rise to millions of 'township and village enterprises' (TVE) — small-scale industries that began the industrialisation and urbanisation process. These TVEs were technically owned by the local collective but many were run like private industries. In Deng's words, this was a "completely unplanned, spontaneous revolution that took us by surprise."

 

But it worked. Eighty percent of the poverty reduction that occurred in China took place from 1979-1989. It had little to do with any authoritarian model or supposed authoritarian qualities, or the far-sighted long-term planning and wise counsel of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders. Significantly, it was actually about the CCP relinquishing economic and social control over the country.

 

During this period, the de facto private sector received about three-quarters of all the country's capital in the first 10 years of reform – the reverse of what is happening today. There was no discrimination against the private sector in favour of the State-controlled one; meaning that household incomes across-the-board were rising with the tide. It was a genuine bottom-up rather than the present top-down approach.

 

Following the countrywide protests that almost brought down the regime, the CCP deliberately retook control of the economy from the mid-1990s onwards: favouring the State-controlled sector over the private one in key economic areas in order to prevent the emergence of an independent economic middle class. Although GDP has continued to expand at an impressive pace, household incomes have been growing at a paltry 1-3% each year even as profits in the State-controlled sector expand by 15-20% per annum. Significantly, since the rise of 'authoritarian development' in China, poverty reduction advanced by approximately 1.5% each year, meaning that China has underperformed vis-a-vis India since the latter began reforms in the early 1990s. Indeed, given the State-controlled bias that accelerated from this century onwards, poverty alleviation has remain stagnant and some studies even suggest that absolute poverty in China has actually increased.

 

Compared to the Indian bottom-up approach which is driven by the private sector and domestic consumption, China's top-down State-led model has created a country of some 150-200 million 'insiders' who benefit disproportionately from the fruits of economic growth. While measurements of income inequality have remained fairly constant even as India rises, Chinese society has become the most unequal in all of Asia. Although far from being a tranquil society, India does not have anywhere near the reported 124,000 instances of 'mass unrest' that occurred in China in 2009.

 

Even if Premier Wen and Prime Minister Singh would want to deny it, the Chinese and Indian approaches to economic development and poverty alleviation are being watched and compared by the 150 undeveloped and developing countries. Larry Summers might have been flattering his hosts in preparation for Obama's visit to India which took place in November. But the weaknesses of the Beijing Consensus mean that we will be hearing much more about the Mumbai Consensus in the years to come.

 

John Lee is director, Foreign Policy, Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

HARDLY FARM FRESH

SONALI BISHT, 

 

Unsafe agriculture practices rarely attract attention. But whatever little we know about the effects of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides on agriculture, it is alarming enough. Food and Agriculture Organisation data shows that consumption of chemical fertilisers in the country has risen 170 times since 1950 and pesticide consumption has increased from 1 million tonne in the 1950s to over 75 million tonnes in recent years.

 

Despite such largescale usage of chemical inputs, India still has no robust system to monitor the usage of pesticides, their movements and effects on environment and human beings. Agriculture is the biggest utiliser of land and if the chemical inputs are not used carefully, they can pollute the soil, air and water. The consequences of such large-scale contamination could be irreversible and fatal.

 

Pesticides are known to cause a variety of health problems, some even life-threatening. Yet their usage in the agricultural sector continues unchecked. Paradoxically, the most intensive and expensive checks imposed today are on organic agriculture.

 

Organic products go through intensive checks in laboratories and rigorous on-field checks by third-party certifiers or a stringent Participatory Guarantee Scheme. This increases the price of safe natural food and deters farmers from claiming their produce to be organic. On the contrary, farmers using chemicals in agriculture don't need to state clearly the chemical composition of fertilisers, pesticides and other inputs they use during cultivation and storage.

 

Consumers will be able to make informed choices only when they know where their food comes from, the chemical residues it is likely to contain and its effects on health. Today's environment and health-conscious farmers need a level-playing field and the consumer the knowledge to make informed choices about what they are consuming.

 

The ministry of environment and forests (MoEF) must also involve itself in assessing environmental aspects of all agriculture practices and not only genetically modified crops. All agricultural practices using chemicals or synthetic products must go through environment impact assessment before they are cleared for use by the farmer. The MoEF needs to be more active and responsible regarding the effect of agricultural practices on environment.

 

Bhutan has recognised the close relationship between agriculture, forest and environment and has constituted a ministry of renewable natural resources. In our country too, the ministries of agriculture and environment must not remain segregated and function in two separate compartments.

 

Sonali Bisht is a development consultant and founder-member of Institute of Himalayan Environmental Research and Education, Uttarakhand. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

BEHIND THE MASK, IT'S WARTS AND ALL

ADITE BANERJIE

 

Healthcare has come a long way for middle-class Indians. Access to private sector healthcare is considered a boon and in many ways it is. As many specialty hospitals open up in every metro, the perception is one of easier availability of quality healthcare. Of course, access to healthcare services comes at a hefty price.

 

The entrances of such high-end medical facilities are built to inspire confidence. The way patients are attended to, the manner in which documentation is handled, the quick and calm response of doctors  — all these speak volumes about their professionalism. It's not just good healthcare practice but also makes enormous business sense to treat customers with care when they enter the facility.

 

But a hospital is not just any other facility offering "consumer" service. It is a facility that literally deals with life and death. And the efficiency factor should typically then be measured on a different scale. One measure could be: how does a hospital cope with the death of its patients? Is it just as efficient, professional and humane just as it is when promising wellness and care to those who enter its portals? In my experience, that's where most hospitals fail to make the grade.

 

Recently, my father was admitted to the Noida Medicare Centre (NMC) after a stroke. On its website, the Centre proudly claims an ethos of "personal touch and humane approach". Despite the best efforts by the doctors at NMC, they couldn't save my father. But what came as a shock was the manner in which the hospital handled the process of preparing his body for the hearse.

 

As can be expected, a hospital will not want the deceased to be taken away from its premises from the main entrance. That is understandable as it would be unsettling for patients and their family members. However, how difficult is to manage the exit gate with a little care and humanity? Can they not create a clean pathway for the purpose?

 

At NMC, the back door leads to a filthy backyard. The yard had not been cleaned in months and opened out on to a back street which was even filthier. There, amid faeces of stray animals and rotting garbage, we laid down the stretcher carrying my father's body, so that the attendant could prepare it for the last rites. Whatever goodwill I had for the hospital and its efficient staff vanished in a beat.

 

How much does it cost a hospital management to keep the exit area clean and create a small concrete structure for the body to be placed while it waits for the hearse? Isn't this a part of the service that the recently deceased patient was paying for? For hospitals like NMC that make tall claims about its "passion to serve humanity", this begrudging of a little decency and dignity to the dead betrays its callousness more loudly than their lip service to commitment and responsiveness. For them, it's all about the profit motive. Dignity and humanity be damned.

 

Adite Banerjie is a Delhi-based writer. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

UP'S CHANGED

 

If Azam Khan's recent re-induction into the Samajwadi Party was to have been part of a positive re-invent after the party's reversals in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, things clearly have not gone according to plan. Khan, who has a rich record of getting into a controversy for all the wrong reasons, set off a storm by the manner in which he chose to count the Muslim cabinet ministers in the UPA government. The point was not that he got his arithmetic wrong but the spin he gave to Ghulam Nabi Azad's representativeness, saying he is "not from India, but from Kashmir", before noting that "we do not know whether it (Kashmir) is part of India". Khan must retain the burden of sorting out what it was that he was suggesting, but SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav should worry that there could be consequences for his re-invention exercise over the last year. The party went into the 2009 Lok Sabha elections with a backward-looking manifesto bristling at computerisation and the English language. The results of the election in Uttar Pradesh, which saw the Congress's revival and Mayawati's BSP holding its own, jolted the SP into a large-scale makeover, culminating in the recent return of Khan to the party fold. But if the party believes this latest episode of resentment-creation among Muslims is the template to revive what it sees to be its votebank, it's missing the current of aspiration that's announcing itself in election after election — the most recent being in neighbouring Bihar, where Mulayam's comrade-in-arms, Lalu Prasad, has just landed himself on the wrong side of history. In Bihar, Lalu tried to use the Ayodhya verdict to set off a familiar polarisation — but to no effect. Unfortunately, political players in UP have still not seen that to be a cautionary example, given also the Congress's recent submission to conspiracy theories on former Maharashtra ATS chief Hemant Karkare. Like Bihar, UP has changed. And it has changed in part because, like Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Mayawati has transcended the comforts of polarised votebanks and expanded the centre-ground of state politics. For her challengers — the SP, Congress and the BJP — it could be a long run-up to the next assembly poll. They'd do better than clutch at straws.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

TOWARDS A THAW

 

Something has got to give, if we are to move beyond this ridiculous deadlock over which instrument to pick for grilling the government over the spectrum allocation scandal. After refusing to institute a joint parliamentary committee (JPC), the government softened its stand, suggesting a special session of Parliament to debate the question. The opposition, whose entire political programme now consists of mechanically chanting for a JPC, refused and said it wants a cross-party probe, wants it now and needs no further talk. In short, both sides have settled back into their belligerent postures. While the opposition's merciless focus on the spectrum scam has forced the government to explain itself, they do not seem to have a cogent vision of how to move forward constructively on an issue presumably staggering enough to warrant singular focus. The recent NDA rally framed it in stark terms for the prime minister: "Allow a JPC or go." This is pointless negativism, as is the outright refusal to have a public face-to-face negotiation on the need for a JPC. It is also deeply hypocritical, given their own vulnerability in Karnataka where the scam-tainted B.S. Yeddyurappa regime continues to brazen it out. Nevertheless, having finally made the government blink like this, the opposition owes it to Parliament to let a session be called so that arguments can be thrashed out — and perhaps the deadlock eased. However, the fact remains that resolving this legislative limbo is ultimately the government's problem, and there is no excuse whatsoever for such unimaginative floor management. In fact, with the Congress's own allies keen to reap some political dividend by showing they are uncomfortable with the strict denial of a JPC, the danger is this sense of drift will trivialise the deliberations that precede the budget session — if not imperil it altogether. While some kinds of political friction are productive and necessary in a democracy, it is highly dangerous when partisan acrimony erodes the middle ground of consultation and common cause altogether. When the opposition, en masse, refuses to participate in legislative business and takes its complaint to the streets instead, it has grave implications for the nation. The government cannot really govern in this bitter atmosphere, without squandering its legitimacy, if Parliament continues to be frozen and legislative business is mutely pushed through or put in abeyance. The Congress must consider the costs that come attached with these fighting words.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

ALMOST 500

 

In a seven-day span that brought Sachin Tendulkar his 50th Test century, a teenager from his city, Mumbai, has announced himself in a manner quite similar to his own teenage exploits with records. Arman Jaffer, all of 13 years old, has broken the world record for the highest number of runs in school cricket, scoring 498 in the Giles Shield tournament in Mumbai. His achievement acquires even more of a local character, given that his uncle, former Test opener Wasim Jaffer, too once held a school-level record and is Mumbai captain. Young Arman got to his record in quick time, needing 490 deliveries. And his knock, which has brought him to national attention, is an apt year-end antidote to fear of a monoculture creeping into cricket. As the Twenty20 format draws large numbers of followers and capital, and as its competing teams evade the older frameworks for contests and record-keeping (for instance, the Indian Premier League), the fear expressed is that older, more history-laden formats will be edged out. Tendulkar showed that while his successors may not have the opportunity to play as many Tests as his generation did, the aura of excellence in Tests does certainly endure and outshine all else. And Arman has shown that even in an information space thick with international and celebrity-ised cricket, the rare milestone will make us stop and take note. It may even be argued that the hastened and highly charged run-making of the T20 format puts in sharper profile the patient and planned accretion of runs in the longer formats. Indeed, the patience and stamina to last it out beyond a few overs is a skill that may have been commonplace earlier, but it is now highly prized.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

THE ARTIST BEGS TO DIFFER

SUDEEP PAUL 

 

In his essays, "The Government of the Tongue" (1988) and "The Place of Writing" (1989), Seamus Heaney focuses on an essential role for the poet: the task of the poet is the preservation of beauty, especially when tyrannical regimes seek to destroy it. This is a prescription that underlies not merely the adversity that the artist must battle and triumph against (which, experience shows, might even heighten her expression and exactitude) but also, by implication, the conditions that should prevail in a liberal, "free" society. In a perfect world, there wouldn't be any censorship. But the world isn't perfect, and real life can't bear out Heaney's implication for societies where tyranny doesn't reign — because there are no free societies. If the world were perfect, there wouldn't be any need for WikiLeaks. In the absence of such an unattainable state of socio-political being, we find ourselves compelled to generally agree, not with Julian Assange but with governments, that we'd be better off without a lot of those "dangerous" disclosures in the public domain. When Jafar Panahi is sent to jail for six years and ridiculously barred from making films or even writing scripts for 20 years, do we the people (Iranians or otherwise, liberal or conservative) see ourselves behind this farce that could amount to tragedy? Here's what Panahi himself had to say: "The assassination of ideas and sterilising artists of a society has only one result: killing the roots of art and creativity. It drives this crystal clear but sad message home: 'You'll repent if you don't think like us.'"If the instinct to censure, or the fear of a liberal free-for-all, blinks in all of us, would that still place Tehran in the league of full-scale totalitarianisms (Nazi Germany, Stalinist Russia, and what have you) because it's institutionalised this instinct? Panahi has been sentenced for "assembly and collusion and propagation against the regime". He was arrested in March this year for his support for the opposition green movement and detained last year for attending the slain Neda Soltan's memorial. But the regime denied in March that his arrest was political. Why jail him and ban his filmmaking if not to set an example for Iran's artists who cleverly work within the system's constraints to highlight injustices and indicate possibilities? Panahi's films, astute social commentaries as they are, are not designedly political. Their political implications come by default, as a consequence of the films being made in a public, political space. And we know that the personal space is also political, shaped in response to the currents that flow outside.Yet, Iran is a complex place, where the clichés that apply to tyrannies elsewhere fall short because of the layered ironies and ambiguities. For example, it's been standard among Western film scholars to say the Islamic Revolution's codes distort reality on-screen — women in private don't wear veils, but women in films are made to even at home. A less ethnographic perspective on Iranian cinema shows how the formal innovations of Iranian cinema began as the Revolution's own tools to subvert this Western art form, to undo (Hollywood) cinema's voyeuristic point of view, and create a new "national" cinema along with a new spectator. This "rupture" with dominant Western cinema automatically allowed the self-reflexivity in films such as Abbas Kiarostami's Through the Olive Trees (1994) or Panahi's The Mirror (1997) — where the camera intrudes into the frame — that had earlier come to European cinema as a distancing and formally re-

 

orienting device. The Revolution made such devices indigenous and ideological.In her book, Displaced Allegories: Post-Revolutionary Iranian Cinema (2008), Negar Mottahedeh uses Walter Benjamin's "optical unconscious" to show how the regime grasped early on cinema's ability to politicise the viewing experience — a tool to "regenerate" the "national body" in a "politicisation of the aesthetics". Iranian cinema's supreme irony is this: a new film grammar meant to perpetuate the Revolution turned on the regime when filmmakers like Panahi (whose films are proscribed) optimised the free aesthetic space available and began discomfiting the regime, even through pirated DVDs. The "terrible beauty" the Revolution had created came back to haunt it. Heaney's tyrannical regimes don't preclude the individual's ability to think, but control and re-engineer her every thought. But that attempt at captivating the mind, as another refugee from totalitarianism — Czeslaw Milosz — would say, scares the individual about thinking for herself. The Iranian regime had tried that through cinema, and it backfired. An imprisoned Jafar Panahi is afraid not so much of being prevented from making films, but of not being allowed to think as a consequence of not making his films. Free societies, such as ours, don't jail our Panahis, care little about cinematographic tools, but concede to allow state or private censors to monthly bowdlerise "foreign" films for our screens. That's not really a subversion of the alien aesthetic or values. It's a consensus of thoughtlessness.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

POLICE POSTS & CHECKS

BIBEK DEBROY 

 

A few days ago, Home Secretary G.K. Pillai spoke at the foundation day ceremony of the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPRD) in Delhi. What made headlines was his statement that police recruitment is mired in corruption. This wasn't a reference to the Indian Police Service (IPS) or even gazetted officers recruited through the state police services. It was a reference to non-gazetted recruitment through the State Public Service Commissions (SPSCs) and other means. This is a season of large-ticket corruption. Small-ticket corruption can be defined as that which occurs in citizen and enterprise interfaces with government. And here, the police figure prominently. For example, a specific study was done on corruption in police in India by Transparency International (TI) in 2005. According to that, 87 per cent of those who interacted with the police believed it to be corrupt and 12 per cent of all households said they had to bribe (in the previous year) the police to obtain a service. Why do policemen demand bribes? Among various reasons, TI said: "Payment of bribes for postings and promotions is a well-known phenomenon in the police department. As a result the policemen who have paid their way through try to recover the amount as soon as possible and corruption becomes a tool for getting better return on 'investment'." Naturally, the argument becomes stronger if one has to pay for entry into service. Who was the last kotwal (as the chief of police was called) of Delhi? That's a standard quiz question and the answer happens to be Gangadhar Nehru, Motilal Nehru's father. Though nomenclature varied from one part of India to another, there was a system of village policing, before the British integrated it into a modern police force. There is a fascinating monograph, "History of Police Organisation in India and Indian Village Police", published by the University of Calcutta in 1913. It is based on excerpts from the 1902-03 report of the Indian Police Commission. The first sentence goes, "Of all the branches of the public service in India, the police, by its history and traditions, is the most backward in its character." If this report is any indication, the British were ambivalent about village police. They liked the idea, because village police were networked with citizens, something we ought to remember today, when we talk about police reforms and community policing. Simultaneously, because of financial constraints, despite integration, the pre-British village police weren't originally funded by the exchequer. They were linked with revenue functions and funded themselves through levies on citizens. The British continued with this system, though they didn't like it. "His (kotwal) appointment, however, was considered a lucrative one, as the pay of his establishment was very low, and both he and his subordinates supplemented their salaries by unauthorised exactions from the inhabitants." Thus, both in pre-British and early British days, there are antecedents of police financing themselves through extortion and bribes. It is ingrained in the police force's DNA. And this wasn't rural alone. "At a later period special regulations were made for the police of cities, the cost being levied from the inhabitants by an assessment on each house and shop." Under the Constitution as well as the Police Act of 1861, police is a state subject. However, as should be obvious, police reforms aren't only about the IPS or gazetted officers under state police services. That's around 1 per cent of the total police strength. About 88 per cent is constabulary and another 11 per cent is what is called upper subordinates (inspectors, SIs, ASIs). Pillai had in mind recruitment to these.While there are some state-level variations, constables are generally recruited through boards, and SIs/ ASIs through the SPSCs. These are the equivalents of the village police in early British days. Colonial police commission reports (such as of 1902-03) weren't that concerned with recruitment to these, since these posts (that is, their equivalents) were hereditary. They were more concerned with what we would today call gazetted appointments. Plenty has been written about police reforms in India, especially after the Prakash Singh case of 1996. Rather oddly, this discourse and Central (model act) and state-level legislation (proposed and actual) have little on appointments to upper subordinates and constabulary. There is stuff on senior-level appointments and transfers/ postings at all levels. There are recommendations on providing incentives and training for upper subordinates and constabulary. The home secretary's concern is a neglected issue. Whether it is the recruitment of upper subordinates (SPSCs) or constabulary (boards), the principles are similar. Minimum educational and physical qualifications are prescribed; these vary between states, especially for the educational part. For specific categories, deviations are permitted from the minimum. Physical examinations are followed by written tests and interviews. Stated thus, it is no different from any entry-level requirement anywhere. There are ways to reduce corruption in each of the three stages — physical, written, interview. Not long ago, a candidate in Delhi turned whistleblower when a government hospital asked for a bribe to furnish the medical certificate. Since government hospitals are invariably corrupt, the simplest option is to outsource the medical. After all, this is about adherence to a minimum template and no more. A similar logic applies to written tests. These are meant to test know-ledge, not quite writing skills. Unfortunately, patterns followed are decades-old. There hasn't been a transition to multiple-choice tests, where there is scope for computerisation, apart from computerisation and coding in the allotment of roll numbers. If writing skills have to be tested, that can always be tagged on separately, a pattern followed in many US tests. Multiple-choice format allows removal of discretion and outsourcing. Corruption results from discretion and, both in physicals and written tests, there is scope to reduce this. There is scope to place information in the public domain and allow external scrutiny, and to reduce the powers of SPSCs and recruitment boards. The 2006 Model Police Act didn't probe this enough, because that was supposed to be done through government rules. All it said was, "The direct recruitments to non-gazetted ranks in the Police Service shall be made through a state-level Police Recruitment Board by a transparent process, adopting well-codified and scientific systems and procedures which shall be notified through appropriate rules framed by the State Government." We do need a Police Recruitment Board. But through rules, we also need its powers to be curbed. That's the transparency part and there is scope to reduce corruption even in interviews. After all, corruption has been reduced at entry level in many places. Now that the home secretary has set a cat among the pigeons, can we introduce such transparent rules for Delhi Police recruitment, as a test case?

 

The writer is a Delhi-based economist, express@expressindia.com

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

WHY MUSEUMS SHOULD START DIGGING

 

This year saw the end of the five-year-long trial of Marion True, a former antiquities curator of the J. Paul Getty Museum in Los Angeles. The Getty is hardly the only American institution to be accused of buying art of dubious origin. In recent years, the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York, the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, and the Princeton University Art Museum have all returned contested works of art. Even when museums have the best of intentions, some of the works they buy have passed through the hands of underground suppliers. It's hard for museums to avoid the black market partly because there is so little legitimate excavation going on that can yield new finds. Sadly, when an object is taken from its original site without documentation, context is lost. And in archaeology, context is everything: it tells us an object's age, its likely place of manufacture and its everyday use. This lack of information makes it harder for collectors to determine if an object is fake, while even authentic works, in the absence of the context of their discovery, become mute witnesses to our irresponsible acquisitiveness. But there is one thing museums could do that would put looters and smugglers out of business while uncovering more of the world's cultural treasures at far lower cost: excavate archaeological sites themselves. Today this might seem a strange idea, but it's exactly what museums like the Louvre and the British Museum did in the 19th century. Of course, back then there was no distinction between possession and ownership, and many countries lost significant pieces of their heritage as a result. Eventually, museums could no longer act this way. In Italy, for example, a law passed in 1909 subjected all archaeological finds to government regulation, while later laws made new finds the property of the state. So today's museums can't, and shouldn't, go back to the 19th-century model. But they could create partnerships with the states where we know these promising archaeological sites exist to sponsor excavations and to help provide proper scientific oversight when artifacts are unearthed. Excavation is the lifeblood of archaeology. Without it, museums can only recycle exhibitions of well-known masterpieces. And despite two centuries of digging, much more remains to be discovered than has yet been found. If only ownership could be separated from possession, then museums might strike a deal with countries like Greece and Italy. Here's how it would work: The countries of origin would own anything that was excavated there and keep most of the finds on display in local partnering museums. But the museum that sponsored the dig would be allowed to borrow a percentage of the finds and exhibit them. Eventually, all the finds from a site would be exchanged on a rotating basis between the country of origin and the museum, which would pay the expenses and insurance. Where should museums and investors begin? Well, there's the tomb of Antiochus of Commagene at Mount Nemrut in southeast Turkey. Farther afield one could add Pataliputra in India, reputed to be the most populous city in the world in the third century BC; or the tomb of Qin Shi Huang, China's first emperor. Qin erected thousands of realistic terra-cotta statues around his tomb; these Xi'an Warriors have been famous since they were first discovered in 1974. But the excavations have thus far touched only a small, peripheral part of the site. Even the famous Pompeii remains a mystery, with a third of the city still underground. Finds from these sites and the scores more like them around the world have filled many rooms in our museums and have contributed enormously to our understanding of everyday life in antiquity, yet we have much more to learn. It's not too late for museums to start digging. BERNARD FRISCHER

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

IN NEPAL, THE UN'S MISSION IS FAR FROM ACCOMPLISHED

YUBARAJ GHIMIRE 

 

The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), which stayed here for four long years, is all set to pack off. The UNMIN had been a great hope, its presence separately requested by the government headed by G.P. Koirala and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) in the second quarter of 2006, when pro-democracy forces and the rebels (branded "terrorists" by some) decided to come together and pursue peace and stability. But as the UNMIN prepares to leave the country at some point after January 15, its report card does not look any more impressive than that of Nepal's domestic actors, and the key external actor — India — which decisively influenced international opinion on the trustworthiness of the Maoists after the 12-point agreement in November 2005. India's relationship with Maoists appears to have soured irreversibly now.That agreement mediated by Delhi — the basis of the peace process — secured a pledge from the Maoists that they would abjure violence and cease the decade-long war they had waged against the state. The Nepali Congress that represented the democratic forces agreed to support a republic, leaving behind its history of holding up the consitutional monarchy.India also agreed to abandon its Nepal policy based on the twin-pillar theory, that monarchy and pro-democracy forces were the best guarantee for Nepal's stability and development, and let go of its long resistance to a "credible international organisation, preferably a UN body coming to its neighbourhood as mediator in the peace process".The UNMIN's mandate was limited to the extent of observing the election to the constituent assembly — task accomplished in April 2008 — and monitoring the arms and armies of the Maoists and the state, both confined to the barracks. Nepal's army was never happy about being treated at par with the Maoist combatants. It was also the Maoists' biggest scoring point, not just over the Nepal army but also all other political parties. While the Maoist army — confined in 28 camps and monitored by the UNMIN — is intact, the Nepal army that lobbied for the departure of the UN body and blamed it for pro-Maoist bias, can now rest assured that the "unfair comparison" of the past stands rectified after the UNMIN's departure. And that is what troubles the Maoists, in both psychological and political terms.Strangely enough, it was G.P. Koirala, the grand old man of the Nepali Congress, and CPN-M Chairman Prachanda who signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in November 2006, bringing the Nepal army on par with the Maoists. Those who are now arguing for the UNMIN's exit, lock, stock and barrel, are his lieutenants from the party. As a concession, they are willing to give an eighth extension to the UNMIN without the right to monitor Nepal's army.The high hopes pinned on the UNMIN's arrival, and its departure as a declared failure, will have several implications for the future of the peace process. The major political parties, wracked by internal as well as inter-party conflicts, are nowhere near deciding what machinery could substitute for the UNMIN. And this comes at a time when the dominant faction of the Maoists appear to be seriously considering raising arms against the state again. The Maoists also feel that a fresh supply of arms — under suspension for the past five years — by India to the Nepal army after the visit of the Indian army chief, V.K. Singh, would be a clear indication that other political parties were preparing to "thrust a war on us". The weakened and depleted state army has also given the psychological advantage to the Maoists. The UN seems to have weighed the options and concluded that given the none-too-glorious stint of the UNMIN and the indifference of India and China towards it, it would not be rewarding to continue. Unless a last minute "miracle" occurs, it is likely that the UN will monitor the Nepal situation from New York. But regulating political parties and pinning them to act towards the peace process seems almost impossible from such a great distance.Senior foreign ministry officials have warned the prime minister, who is dead set against an extension for the UNMIN, that it would not be in the interests of the country to provoke the United Nations too much. Given the cost, time and initiative that the UN has invested in Nepal, and the fact that the conflict-ridden country does not have a credible apparatus to replace it, the Security Council may appoint a special envoy as an extreme step, and the best way to avoid that situation would be to continue to involve the UN in a limited way. But this is not a suggestion that the government or the political parties seem to have heeded with the seriousness it deserves.Under the circumstances, the UNMIN might leave the country unsung and unwept. But it will leave a void , and increase chances of the conflict being triggered once again, completely shattering the peace and the constitution-making process.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

KNOWING WHAT'S GOOD FOR US

KSHANKARBAJPAI 

 

After all P5 leaders visit India, we take our UN Security Council turn. Statesmen are now salesmen, greatly business-driven, still the procession symbolises our world role. The UNSC will test our ability to perform it. Our qualifications for being there are manifest, as are our weaknesses. Our apparatus for interacting with the world is inadequate, in concepts and in mechanics. US President Barack Obama's Parliament speech summed up the international attitude: welcome to the high table, now show us what you can bring to it. His Myanmar reference, howsoever irritating, underlines the complexities and dilemmas major powers face. These call for objective, calculated judgment, forethought, a sense of proportion, finesse, diligence, persistence — everything disdained at home.Some handicaps are inherent. "Democracy... can only with great difficulty regulate the details of an important undertaking, persevere in a fixed design, and work out its execution in spite of serious obstacles. It cannot combine its measures with secrecy or await their consequences with patience" — since Alexis de Tocqueville's observation, public opinion, and the media even more so, have become further complications. Other democracies develop palliatives — educating the public, interacting with opposition groups, insulating foreign policy from petty politics, even going ahead and taking a chance on domestic consequences. While that is beyond today's India, we have a greater problem: we hardly know what our national interest is. Disagreements on specific issues — the Indo-US nuclear deal, or how to handle China — are healthy, but no country can survive, much less matter, without some sense of its strategic or security needs. Serious states — those capable of achieving calculated purposes — are distinguished from ineffective "banana republics" by the nature of the thinking that determines what they do. Drowning national needs in local politics, emotional or outdated ideological illusions, playing to the galleries or simple ignorance is mortally dangerous. Consider some random instances: Tamil Nadu's parties competed to embarrass Delhi's handling of Sri Lanka, states around Bangladesh connive at illegal immigration, UP has no thought for its responsibilities vis-à-vis Nepal. With visions so narrow, who cares about the security of the Persian Gulf or the stability of Central Asia?Take our permanent UNSC membership. India deserves it, but reform will take ages. The statesmanlike stance is: the entire international organisation system is out of date, and when recast, our UNSC rights must be incorporated, but until then let's get on with life. Instead, immature yearning forces the government to make this a core national objective, wasting diplomatic capital on lollipops of empty support.A major world role means having to take positions on a variety of issues, inevitably upsetting someone. Our diplomats were renowned for straddling contradictions, but domestic pressures obviate professional skills. The irresponsible posturing of politicians and media hyperbole frequently force us to subordinate our own interests for some imagined cause — and in extreme language. One unforgettable illustration: our then foreign minister's statement on the 1967 Middle East crisis. Given a carefully-worded draft, he succumbed to fears that Parliament would expect a bolt of thunder — one Arab ambassador asked why we wanted to outdo even the Arabs!Iran is a particularly telling case. Of course good relations are desirable, but adverse behaviour cannot be ignored. We get carried away by "civilisational ties" — as once by "2000 years of Sino-Indian friendship," when we had virtually nothing to do with each other. History shows precious little Iranian benevolence towards us, periodic sackings of Delhi apart. True, Persia greatly influenced us — art, language, food, etc — we must also respect the sensitivities of our Shia population, reputedly second only to Iran's. But are those reasons for ignoring Iran's votes against us on Kashmir? We have consistently sought better ties, our IAEA vote was perfectly consistent with that approach. Iran tells us their Kashmir stand is not anti-Indian but part of a general policy; likewise, India is against proliferation, not Iran. We ourselves forget that proliferation, including Iran's part in the A.Q. Khan nuclear bazaar, threatens our security interest. Howls against our vote were louder here than there. No foreign policy can further one's interests if one does not understand, and stand by, one's own priorities. Which leads to another great Indian weakness: our inability, indeed, refusal, to project our views persuasively. Issuing statements, or rushing around canvassing at the last minute, cannot substitute for timely, sustained advocacy. Our missions abroad mostly glean our stand from the press. Briefings, if given, are like the banalities we get away with at home, ineffectual with hard-headed foreign offices or media analysts.. Our domestic vices spoil our international image. Others treat you as they estimate you: a strong, well-organised state, seen as knowing what it is doing and able to do it efficiently, inspires respect, circumspection, even cooperativeness — an invaluable shield against mischief. The shorter we fall of such stature, the greater our vulnerabilities. Foreign policy hardly ever wins or loses elections. Governments have more latitude than they realise, and politicians need not indulge in one-upmanship. Rather they should attempt to work together on at least the main national security concerns. How hopeless that sounds here needs no elaboration. Selfish, narrow-visioned or corrupt leaders abound everywhere, but, in great states, work within a system where objective reasons of state both weigh on decision-making and ensure some conscientiousness in implementation.India Shining and Incredible India are hollow delusions if we cannot consolidate and safeguard our nationhood. There are states combining the capability and, in their eyes, reason for undermining that nationhood. That does not mean armed conflict is imminent or even inevitable, but state prudence demands readiness for it — indeed, to prevent it. Si vis pacem, para bellum — the old saying remains valid, peace is best achieved by your strength. We desperately need a national consensus on our strategic concerns. Our UNSC challenges are to our foreign policy capabilities, but gearing ourselves to meet them might also make us better equipped to cope with these greater national security challenges. Will our major parties see how essential their cooperation on these basic needs is?

 

The writer is a former ambassador to Pakistan, China and the US, and chairman of the National Security Advisory Board>/i>

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

DOMINANCE OR LEADERSHIP?

FARHAD SORABJEE 

 

There's an interesting struggle brewing in the online world, and it's not about Julian Assange. It is about Google, the most visited website in the world, which has become one of those iconic commerical entities that has taken over the standard English for its function, like Scotch Tape and Jeep. To search online is to Google. There is unlikely to be any realistic attempt to dispute its status as the dominant player in its market. It is believed that two out of three web searches are undertaken using Google.Its dominance is not really a problem per se. The grave threat arises from the very nature of Google's core business. It is a company whose prime product tells people where they can go to purchase or access any and every product or service. And that provides the cannon fodder to competitors and the disgruntled alike. That Google is hugely successful and efficiently runs useful and popular services also immediately provokes schadenfreude, the human impulse to see the mighty fall.Google's power and omnipresence are of a scale never seen before, but this has been the result of a fair and honest battle for the market. It did not have first mover advantage. Unlike the usual kind of dominant position, where an entity dominates a particular market or sector or industry by the very nature of the services it provides, Google is in the incredible position of influencing and even perhaps controlling the fortunes of whole industries, products and markets. While its success is to be commended, there is still need for caution. In these sensitive and, some would argue, over-regulated times, Google finds itself in the spotlight because of its girth. The European Union competition regulators have recently launched an investigation into certain aspects of its operations, after complaints from competitors such as a UK-based price comparison site, a France-based legal search engine, and a shopping site (ironically, owned by Microsoft). The complaints suggest that the complainants' services were being buried deep in Google's search results, and that Google highlights its own services in the advertisement section of the search results.Worryingly for Google, the regulators appear to be interested in looking into the innermost sanctum of Google: its formulae for determining the order of the search engine results it throws up. Apart from the possibility of astronomical fines by the European Competition Commission, it is also conceivable that the commission may direct disclosure of the formulae and calculations that decide the order of listing of the search results. This will be vigorously defended by Google, not least because it is the very heart of the company's success and is the essence of the special ability of the company that has allowed it to rise on merit above its competitors.By all accounts, Google had recently gone into aggressive acquisition mode. A rising number of voices argue that Google is adapting its formulae and systems to suppress competitors' content and elevate its own, particularly where it now has new interests of its own, such as its new expanded verticals in retail, Google Books and Google Places. In fact, only recently Yelp, a US local information directory service, protested that Google had used its content without permission to populate Google Places, and on the same pages favoured content from its own partners and buried Yelp's content. While its behaviour has so far been relatively benign, it needs to guard against the old adage — give a man power if you want to know what his true character is.Google also finds itself faced with opposition from different directions. For example, its proposal to buy a US software company called ITA Software, which provides systems for online flight information, is receiving close attention from diverse quarters. The acquisition itself may, in fact, assist Google to provide useful and innovative new facilities to the travelling public, but coupled with its dominance of the search engine market, it may allow it to push its travel services in a manner unavailable to other providers of similar services. Lobbies have swung into action and various senators and politicians have expressed their fears very vocally. The Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice have both expressed an interest in digging into the acquisition. It is quite possible for competition regulators to see these situations as textbook instances of vertical squeezes, which allow an entity which is dominant in one market to use that dominance to distort or adversely affect another market.Competition theory apart, this has all the classic hallmarks of a "hard" case. The regulators will have to address two questions that may well be inherently contradictory and attempt to reconcile them: what is best for the consumer, and what is best for the market as a whole?

 

The writer is a partner at the Mumbai offices of a national law firm. Views expressed are his own.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

REGULATORY LIABILITY

 

Will Delhi's electricity consumers have to pay a huge 30% more for their electricity supplies, or will they get to pay 20-30% less? Believe it or not, the two extreme options have been suggested by the regulator, the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC). It suggested the tariff cut when it had a head and it suggested the hike when the head retired and it had just two members left. The choice is before the Delhi High Court right now in the form of a public interest litigation. The Delhi government, which had asked DERC to hold on at the time it still had a head, has filed affidavits to show DERC head was acting out of turn, that his other colleagues never agreed with his calculations on cutting tariffs, and so on.

 

While the courts will decide on whether a headless DERC is to be trusted more than one with a head (when the rest of the body doesn't agree with it), the real issue is more serious. It involves the issue of how a regulator is to conduct itself and the levels of recourse available to those who disagree with it. According to the power companies—two of them owned by the ADAG group and one by the Tatas—the problem arose because DERC made very rosy assumptions which, being rosy, projected a huge surplus for them and so obviated the need for a tariff hike. Retail tariffs rose from Rs 4.44 per unit in 2005-06 to just Rs 4.54 in 2009-10. So, DERC would assume companies would buy power at lower costs and sell it at higher prices than was usually the case. In 2007-08, DERC assumed firms would buy power at Rs 2.7 per unit against the actual 2.8; in 2009-10, it assumed a power purchase cost of Rs 2.6 versus an actual of Rs 3.7—given the 23,000 mn units sold in 2009-10, that's an additional cost of Rs 2,600 crore DERC didn't reckon on. So, in 2007-08, it projected a surplus of Rs 380 crore for all three power firms but what actually transpired was a loss of Rs 259 crore. This gap, when not paid for by higher consumer tariffs, is called a 'regulatory asset'—such 'regulatory assets' are currently around Rs 8,300 crore and, at some point, need to be paid for by hiking consumer tariffs. By allowing them to accumulate, DERC has probably worsened matters considerably. The government needs to decide if creating such assets is a good idea—they protect the customer in the short run but make for an unsustainable future.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

MULTI-LAYERED PROBLEMS

 

Much has been made of the huge hoarder margins in the case of onions, whose prices crossed Rs 80 a kg at the retail level, of how while wholesale prices are Rs 20-30, retail prices are more than double. One TV channel paraded its top investigative reporters to expose the perfidy of hoarders by telling viewers, exclusively of course, how they had entered into deals to buy onions at Rs 20 in the wholesale market … A leading wholesale market's advertisement, in yesterday's newspaper, has much the same point when it says wholesale prices of onions vary from Rs 10 to Rs 37.5 per kg. In an attempt to be funny, BJP chief Nitin Gadkari linked this to the Prime Minister's statement that he would appear before the Public Accounts Committee on the 2G scam since he wanted to be, like Caesar's wife, completely above suspicion—Gadkari said that, had she been alive, even Mrs Caesar would have shed tears over onion prices.

 

What's not appreciated, in the mad rush to nail the hoarder, is that this problem is not restricted to onions, it applies to all vegetables; it is not a new phenomenon, it is as old as the hills. If the hoarders were genuinely hoarding, in the face of a third of the crop failing as happened in the case of onions, prices would have risen by more than double of what they have. A look at the latest data compiled by the government makes this clear. In December, cauliflower cost Rs 17 per kg in wholesale markets in Chennai, but Rs 27 in retail markets; Rs 9 in wholesale Hyderabad and Rs 20 in retail Hyderabad. Tomatoes cost Rs 12 per kg in wholesale markets in Patna but Rs 20 in retail markets there; bitter gourd sold in wholesale markets in Patna for Rs 15 as compared to Rs 27 in retail markets there.

 

The reason for this is not that one fat cat bania is making money, it's got to do with the fact that there are at least 7-8 stages the fruits and vegetables pass through before reaching retail markets; so there are transport costs at each level, labour charges to load and unload; profits at each level and losses due to pilferage and shrinkage at each level. This is not to make a case for allowing in modern retail, and FDI within this, though it is obvious larger buyers and elimination of various middlemen will help cut costs. But it is to point out the old argument about middlemen is as old as it is misplaced.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

CHRONICLE OF A DIVORCE FORETOLD

KRISHNAMURTHY V SUBRAMANIAN

 

The recent news about the breakup of Hero Honda, the joint venture (JV) between the Munjal family and Japanese firm Honda, raises important questions about the viability and future of JV partnerships between Indian firms and their foreign collaborators. Specifically, what factors, in general, lead to the breakup of such JVs? Who benefits more from such partnerships—the foreign company or the Indian one? From the perspective of the Indian domestic partner, what is the way forward after the breakup? Finally, what does the future hold for such JVs in India?

 

Before 1991, JVs were mandatory for foreign companies seeking to enter India. Even today, after liberalisation, in many of the large and fast-growing sectors of the economy, such as retail, consumer banking, telecommunications and media, foreign firms entering these industries require an Indian partner. Thus the foreign partners enter into these JVs without really desiring an Indian partner but are forced to have one for market access. In many cases, the Indian partner does not have the technological competence and brings only local knowledge. The Indian partners, however, believe they add substantive value to the JVs. As a consequence, they have high expectations that the foreign partner will contribute by transferring technology, training its employees, etc. However, since the foreign partner often intends to expand into an independent business in India, it does not want to make the technological transfers desired by the Indian partner. The result is a significant mismatch in expectations between the two partners. As would be anticipated, such a mismatch in expectations eventually leads to a subsequent falling out between the partners.

 

Such tensions reach flash point when both partners expect industry growth to speed up and want to corner a larger share of the growing market. With the Indian government gradually allowing foreign companies to operate alone or increase their stake in many industries, the foreign firm often plans to do business on its own in India. As a result, a large number of the Indian JVs have lost their raison d'etre from the foreign partners' perspective. The foreign firm either buys out the Indian partner or sets up an independent unit separate from the existing JV.

 

In fact, in the Munjal-Honda JV, the rising differences between the two partners stemming from Honda's ambitious plans to enter the two-wheeler industry on its own have been cited as a key reason for the split. Other examples abound. When the Indian government eased restrictions for foreign companies in investment banking, both Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch looked to exit their existing JVs with Indian partners. Goldman Sachs sold its stake in its successful JV with Kotak Mahindra Bank for about $75 million, while Merrill Lynch bought most of its stake in DSP Merrill Lynch for about $500 million. American giant Morgan Stanley ended its decade-old partnership with Nimesh Kampani's JM Financial to strike out on its own in the rapidly growing Indian financial services industry. Bayer, Gillette, Goodyear, Datacraft, EMI, Sprint, Suzuki, Xerox, Vodafone, and many more foreign firms have exited their Indian JVs with the sole purpose of reappearing with 100%-owned companies.

 

India can safely be regarded as the JV graveyard of the world, based on evidence from the past two decades. A McKinsey study found that of the 25 major JVs between foreign and Indian companies established from 1993 to 2003, only three still survived in 2005. For example, consider ModiCorp, which, during the 1990s, had lined up alliances with Motorola, Walt Disney and Xerox (ModiCorp's chairman, BK Modi, was popularly referred to as 'Mr JV'). Since then about a dozen of his JVs, including those with the three American companies, have dissolved. Most of these JVs last no more than a decade, on average, and may extend to a couple of decades at the most.

 

In the automobile industry, Kinetic Honda, which was a JV between Kinetic Motors and Honda, was formed in 1985 and dissolved in 1997. TVS Suzuki, a JV between TVS Motors and the Japanese firm Suzuki, was instituted in 1982 and disbanded in 2001. After the breakup, the local partner needs to build its own R&D capability since the umbilical cord, where the local partner was being supported technologically by the foreign firm, is broken. Kinetic Honda failed after Honda exited, since Kinetic Motors was not able to ramp up on the innovation front. However, Honda Motor Scooter India is expected to sell close to 1.5 million units in this fiscal year. In contrast to Kinetic Motors, TVS ramped up on the innovation front after its split with Suzuki. The company started focusing on R&D as its key to survive in the business. As a testimony to its ability to innovate on its own, TVS Motor won the Deming Application Prize in 2002. It became the first and only Indian two-wheeler company to win it. This award, given to companies that do outstanding work in the field of Quality Management, is considered to be one of the world's most prestigious. On the product front, today TVS is able to produce trendy products—bikes like the Apache and scooters like the Wego.

 

If the foreign firm has to do well post its breakup, it has to invest in developing its own sales and distribution network, apart from its own independent understanding of local customer preferences. These are crucial since the foreign firm had been piggybacking on the domestic partner's sales and distribution network as well as its understanding of local customer preferences. Looking forward, with the government looking to relax the conditions for FDI in India, the days of JVs between foreign firms and Indian counterparts in India may be mostly over since such piggybacking may not be necessary any more.

 

The author is assistant professor of finance at ISB, Hyderabad

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

 DID THE EARTH MOVE FOR YOU?

JEEVAN DEOL

 

WikiLeaks was supposed to change the world. The pundits said that diplomacy and the media would never be the same again, and knee-jerk anti-Americans hoped that the superpower would be humbled. But three weeks later only the occasional sensational leak or reports about accusations of sexual misconduct against Julian Assange keep WikiLeaks from being squeezed off the world's front pages by more pressing local news.

 

To some extent, the arc of the WikiLeaks story reflects the nature of the public's attention-span in an era of instant and ever-changing information. Very few people are able or willing to sustain interest in a lengthy series of investigative stories about multiple countries, and humans have always preferred gossip anyway. But the rapid rise and fall of WikiLeaks also tells us something else: the rules of the information game have not really changed.

 

Despite its fresh methods and its promise of radical openness, WikiLeaks's early releases were almost completely unnoticed before it linked up with newspapers in Europe and the US for its Afghan war leaks earlier this year. The group's first serious coup (in 2007) was its release and analysis of a sizeable set of documents detailing almost the complete US military procurement chains for the Iraq and Afghan wars, a sizeable scoop for a news organisation of any size. But almost no one noticed it. Without the muscle (and staff hours) of the mainstream media, the same might have been true of the Afghanistan, Iraq and embassy cables leaks.

 

The world's major newspapers have taken a different, more traditional view of the balance between openness and responsibility than WikiLeaks does. They have chosen to present less than one percent of the embassy cables, redacting the documents they published and declining to make public information that they felt endangered national security or the lives of individuals. NYT went even further: it has shown redacted versions of the documents to the

 

US government before putting them on the Web.

 

Perhaps more seriously for WikiLeaks, the newspapers' ability to explain and contextualise the embassy cables has left no room for the (often slightly paranoid) annotations and commentary that group was accustomed to attaching to its earlier releases. Even more ominously, the print media has already begun to close ranks against the organisation: London's Guardian newspaper shared its copies of the cables with NYT even though WikiLeaks had dropped it as a partner (some say because of the newspaper's unflattering profile of Julian Assange).

 

At the same time, WikiLeaks has been unable to fulfil its own stated core mission of targeting 'highly oppressive regimes in China, Russia and Central Eurasia'. The US embassy leaks have signally failed to prompt soul-searching in Russia and Asia: Vladimir Putin has denigrated US reporting about his role in the Russian government as 'slanderous', Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has claimed that the leaks are a plot against Iran, Thailand has blocked reporting of leaks about the royal family and the Chinese have refused to comment at all (although they have reportedly tried to hack into the flow of submissions to WikiLeaks in order to access documents belonging to other governments). The organisation may for now have to content itself with a slightly bizarre back-hand compliment: the publication in Pakistan of a series of faked revelations about the Indian army and its high command.

 

Meanwhile, American diplomacy has refused to fall apart in the aftermath of the leaks: like the proverbial duck, it has remained calm above the surface while no doubt paddling away vigorously below the surface. But the focus on America has already caused WikiLeaks to split apart; a group of former volunteers has decided to re-float one of the organisation's earlier ideas by creating an on-line marketplace in which leakers themselves will offer documents to named media organisations for a limited time (after which they will become freely available). By doing so OpenLeaks hopes to become a non-ideological broker of information—and to ensure that documents about issues of local importance do not end up languishing in an ever-lengthening digital queue as they have at the more globally-minded WikiLeaks.

 

This model may just succeed in remedying one of WikiLeaks's biggest emerging problems. As the embassy leaks have gained more media coverage, the spotlight has shone even brighter on Julian Assange: Bradley Manning, the American soldier alleged to have leaked the documents in the first place, has almost been forgotten. He will most certainly be very dismayed to learn that the world has not changed overnight and that Julian Assange has stolen his limelight; his fate may well give pause to the next Bradley Manning, who might decide that pressing the 'send' button will not bring glory or recognition after all.

 

There will almost certainly be more leaks and more red faces in the days and weeks to come. But the authors of this week's diplomatic cables might well have noted the irony that the world looks very much like it did three weeks ago.

 

The author is a researcher in the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Cambridge

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EAVESDROPPER

Nitish radiates, and how!

National Advisory Commission member NC Saxena was speaking of his experience in governance over the years and digressed to say he'd learnt, in physics, that heat got transferred in three ways—by convection, by conduction and by radiation. Just when the audience thought he'd lost it, Saxena said Nitish Kumar's particular brand of governance, of going directly to the people while bypassing the regular channels of governance in the bureaucracy, was a bit like radiation—while the energy flows took place, they didn't affect the surface area (the bureaucracy) in between.

 

Hardly vigilant

 

The public sector ONGC was to get a new chief, and its current director in charge of offshore developments, Sudhir Vasudeva was selected to succeed RS Sharma on January 31. The announcement has, however, got delayed at the level of the vigilance clearance, thanks to a spate of vigilance complaints, most of them anonymous. Since the rules prevent the entertaining of anonymous complaints after a person has been chosen for a job, it is not quite clear why this has been allowed this time around.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

EASTERN COUSINS

 

Neanderthals had Denisovan sisters—the story of human evolution keeps getting more complicated

 

In 2008, when field workers found assorted bones, tools and other remains in the Denisova Cave in southern Siberia, Anatoli Derevianko of the Russian Academy of Sciences and his colleagues assumed that these belonged to some of the earliest humans to live in the area. Except, some of the findings had DNA anomalies incompatible with both Homo sapiens and Neanderthals. So, Derevianko forwarded a finger bone fragment to Svante Paabo of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany. In a development that made him a palaeontology superstar, Paabo and his team published an analysis of the Neanderthal Man's genome in May this year. Predominant thinking up to this point had been that when the Homo sapiens spread out from Africa into Europe and Asia, they displaced the Neanderthals. There was no interbreeding. But Paabo and his team found (by comparing the Neanderthal genome reconstructed from bone samples collected from a Croatia cave with those of five living humans from various parts of Africa and Eurasia) that Eurasians are between 1% and 4% Neanderthal. Interbreeding proven!

 

Paabo and partners have thrown up a similarly spectacular result with the Denisova fragments. Published in Nature, their findings suggest that even as Neanderthals emerged from Africa to spread westwards about half a million years ago, the newly discovered and named species of Denisovans ventured eastwards. Like the Neanderthals, this species also declined as the Homo sapiens thrived. As with the Neanderthals, so with the Denisovans there is evidence of interbreeding with humans. Finally, Neanderthals and Denisovans appear to be sister groups descended from a common ancestor.

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

DEALING WITH COMMUNALISMS

 

If last week the Bharatiya Janata Party, and sections of the media, reflexively overreacted to Rahul Gandhi's informal observations on the growth and consequences of Hindtuva extremism, the Congress at its 83rd plenary session at Burari in northwest Delhi swung to the other extreme — wielding the sledgehammer against the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh for its "terror" connections. According to an August 2009 cable sent by U.S. Ambassador Timothy Roemer (outed by WikiLeaks: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/219238), Mr. Gandhi, in a casual conversation at a luncheon hosted by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, made this interesting comparison between Islamist and Hindutva radical groups. Asked about "Lashkar-e-Taiba's activities in the region and the immediate threat to India," the Congress MP reportedly said "although there was evidence of some support for the group among certain elements in India's indigenous Muslim community, the bigger threat may be the growth of radicalised Hindu groups, which create religious tensions and political confrontations with the Muslim community." Taken in their entirety, the comments are unexceptionable. In fact, the Congress general secretary appears to be articulating a nuanced position, worrying more about the divisive potential of Hindutva radicalisation than about the phenomenon itself. Nowhere does the phrase "Hindu terror" find mention in the Roemer cable (as Mr. Gandhi pointed out the day after his insights were WikiLeaked). His party also did well to clarify, in the first instance, that "Rahul Gandhi's view is that terrorism and communalism of all types is a threat to India. We need to remain vigilant against acts of terrorism of all kinds…no matter who commits them."

 

Unfortunately, good sense did not prevail thereafter, with the Congress eager to be more loyal than the heir apparent. Its political resolution adopted at Burari promised a full-on probe into the RSS's alleged terror links and there were some over-the-top statements in this connection. The Congress's role in fomenting some horrible communal violence — Meerut, Maliana, and the 1984 anti-Sikh pogrom — notwithstanding, the party stands differentiated from the BJP and the militant Sangh outfits by its historic pluralism and its overall track record. In recent decades, the party has oscillated between a form of 'defensive secularism,' at times bordering on soft Hindtuva, and an 'instant secularism' crafted more as a reaction to the BJP's taunts than as a result of its own convictions. The violence and terror unleashed by some groups claiming to be Hindutva warriors is real, and even the RSS has been constrained to acknowledge this. But to exaggerate and over-project this aspect on a national scale is to divert attention from the live and present danger that divisive and disintegrative Hindutva 'radicalism' and extremism, alongside Islamist militancy and terrorism, represent in a multi-religious country of over a billion people. In other words, it is to fall into a communal trap. In their own way, the fifth generation Nehru-Gandhi and his social democrat mother, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, seem to have understood this. It is about time their party did.

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

INEXPLICABLE DELAY

 

The Centre's foot-dragging on enacting a new law to give effect to the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities is inexplicable, considering especially that India was among the earliest to ratify it in 2007. First, the administration toyed with the idea of amending the existing 1995 Act, while the stakeholders pointed out that the Convention marked a big change in fundamentals and that compliance with it warranted a new legislation. For instance, the definition of 'disability' stands enlarged to cover all long-term physical, mental, intellectual, and sensory impairments that hinder equal and effective participation in society. This requires extending legal protection to categories not covered by the existing law and specifying in the statute all the fundamental rights and freedoms the disabled are entitled to under the Convention.

 

Then, in April this year, a committee was constituted to draft a new legislation and it was asked to give the report in four months. It soon ran into trouble over the question of giving due representation to all the stakeholders in keeping with the motto "nothing about us without us." Now, the panel has sought time until March to produce the draft bill. The net result of all this is that an Indian law based on the UN Convention may not be in place even in 2011, four years after ratification. As a consequence, the government would be unable to submit the mandatory periodic implementation report to the Convention monitoring committee. A World Bank estimate puts the population of the disabled in India in the region of 40-80 million and among the most disadvantaged in education, employment, and social inclusiveness. The number is bound to increase, given the rising trend in traffic accidents and age-related impairments. The government will have to act with a greater sense of urgency to put the new legal framework in place because it is a basic requisite for the disabled to improve their productive capacities and claim full citizenship.

 

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THE HINDU

LEADER PAGE ARTICLES

U.S. BRINGS SILK ROAD TO INDIA

TAPI IS IN ACTUALITY A SILK ROAD PROJECT CONNECTING CENTRAL ASIA TO THE WEST VIA GWADAR, WHICH WILL MAKE PAKISTAN THE U.S.'S GATEWAY TO CENTRAL ASIA.

M.K. BHADRAKUMAR

 

The significance of the signing of the intergovernmental agreement on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project (TAPI) on December 11 in Ashgabat cannot be overstated. It can only be captured if one says with a touch of swagger that TAPI has been the most significant happening in the geopolitics of the region in almost a decade since America invaded Afghanistan.

 

The heart of the matter is that TAPI is a Silk Road project, which holds the key to modulating many complicated issues in the region. It signifies a breakthrough in the longstanding U.S. efforts to access the fabulous mineral wealth of the Caspian and the Central Asian region. Afghanistan forms a revolving door for TAPI and its stabilisation becomes the leitmotif of the project. TAPI can meet the energy needs of Pakistan and India. The U.S. says TAPI holds the potential to kindle Pakistan-India amity, which could be a terrific thing to happen. It is a milestone in the U.S.' "Greater Central Asia" strategy, which aims at consolidating American influence in the region.

 

Washington has been the patron saint of the TAPI concept since the early 1990s when the Taliban was conceived as its Afghan charioteer. The concept became moribund when the Taliban was driven away from Kabul. Now the wheel has come full circle with the incremental resuscitation of the project since 2005 running parallel to the Taliban's fantastic return to the Afghan chessboard. The proposed commissioning of TAPI coincides with the 2014 timeline for ending the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's "combat mission" in Afghanistan. The U.S. "surge" is concentrating on the Helmand and Kandahar provinces, through which TAPI will eventually run. What stunning coincidences!

 

In sum, TAPI is the finished product of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Its primary drive is to consolidate the U.S. political, military and economic influence in the strategic high plateau that overlooks Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and China.

 

TAPI capitalises on Turkmenistan's pressing need to find new markets for its gas exports. With the global financial downturn and the fall in Europe's demand for gas, prices crashed. Russia cannot afford to pay top dollar for the Turkmen gas, nor does it want the 40 bcm gas it previously contracted to purchase annually. Several large gasfields are coming on line in Russia, which will reduce its need for the Turkmen gas. The Yamal Peninsula deposit alone is estimated to hold roughly 16 trillion cubic metres of gas. But Turkmenistan sits on the world's fourth-largest gas reserves and has its own plans to increase production to 230 bcm annually by 2030. It desperately needs to find markets and build new pipelines.

 

Thus, Ashgabat is driven by a combination of circumstances to adopt an energy-export diversification policy. In the recent months, the Turkmen leadership evinced interest in trans-Caspian projects but it will remain a problematic idea as long as the status of Caspian Sea remains unsettled. Besides, Turkmenistan has unresolved territorial disputes with Azerbaijan. In November, a second Turkmen-Iranian pipeline went on stream and there is potential to increase exports up to 20 bcm. But then, there are limits to expanding energy exports to Iran or to using Iran as a "regional gas hub" — for the present, at least.

 

Therefore, Turkmen authorities began robustly pushing for TAPI. The projected 2000-km pipeline at an estimated cost of $7.6 billion will traverse Afghanistan (735 km) and Pakistan (800 km) to reach India. Its initial capacity will be around 30 bcm but that could be increased to meet higher demand. India and Pakistan have shown interest in buying 70 bcm annually. TAPI will be fed by the Doveletabad field, which used to supply Russia.

 

Ashgabat did smart thinking to accelerate TAPI. The U.S. encouraged Turkmenistan to estimate that this is an enterprise whose time has come. Funding is not a problem. The U.S. has lined up the Asian Development Bank. An international consortium will undertake construction of the pipeline. A curious feature is that the four governments have agreed to "outsource" the execution and management of the project. The Big Oil sees great prospects to participate. The Afghan oilfields can also be fed into TAPI. Kabul awarded its first oil contract in the Amu Darya Basin this week. The gravy train may have begun moving in the Hindu Kush.

 

On the map, the TAPI pipeline deceptively shows India as its final destination. What is overlooked, however, is that it can easily be extended to the Pakistani port of Gwadar and connected with European markets, which is the core objective. The geopolitics of TAPI is rather obvious. Pipeline security is going to be a major regional concern. The onus is on each of the transit countries. Part of the Afghan stretch will be buried underground as a safeguard against attacks and local communities will be paid to guard it. But then, it goes without saying Kabul will expect the U.S. and NATO to provide security cover, which, in turn, necessitates a long-term western military presence in Afghanistan. Without doubt, the project will lead to a strengthening of the U.S. politico-military influence in South Asia.

 

The U.S. brought heavy pressure on New Delhi and Islamabad to spurn the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project. The Indian leadership buckled under American pressure while dissimulating freedom of choice. Pakistan did show some defiance for a while. Anyhow, the U.S. expects that once Pakistanis and Indians begin to chew the TAPI bone, they will cast the IPI into the dustbin. Pakistan has strong reasons to pitch for TAPI as it can stave off an impending energy crisis. TAPI is in actuality a Silk Road project connecting Central Asia to the West via Gwadar, which will make Pakistan the U.S. gateway to Central Asia. Pakistan rightly estimates that alongside this enhanced status in the U.S. regional strategy comes the American commitment to help its economy develop and buttress its security needs in the long-term.

 

India's diligence also rests on multiple considerations. Almost all reservations Indian officials expressed from time to time for procrastinating on the IPI's efficacy hold good for TAPI too — security of the pipeline, uncertainties in India-Pakistan relationship, cost of gas, self-sufficiency in India's indigenous production, etc. But the Indian leadership is visibly ecstatic about TAPI. In retrospect, what emerges from the dense high-level political and diplomatic traffic between Delhi and Ashgabat in the recent years is that our government knew much in advance that the U.S. was getting ready to bring TAPI out of the woodwork at some point — depending on the progression of the Afghan war — and that it would expect Delhi to play footsie.

 

Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh found time to visit the drab Turkmen capital in a notable departure from his preoccupations with the Euro-Atlantic world. The wilful degradation of India-Iran ties by the present government and Dr. Singh's obstinate refusal to visit Iran also fall into perspective. Plainly put, our leadership decided to mark time and simply wait for TAPI to pop out of Uncle Sam's trouser pocket and in the meantime it parried, dissimulated and outright lied by professing interest in the IPI. The gullible public opinion was being strung along.

 

To be sure, TAPI is a big-time money-spinner and our government's energy pricing policies are notoriously opaque. Delhi will be negotiating its gas price "separately" with Ashgabat on behalf of the private companies which handle the project. That is certain to be the mother of all energy "negotiations" involving two countries, which figure at the bottom of the world ranking by Transparency International.

 

Energy security ought to have been worked out at the regional level. There was ample scope for it. The IPI was a genuine regional initiative. TAPI is being touted as a regional project by our government but it is quintessentially a U.S.-led project sheltered under Pax Americana, which provides a political pretext for the open-ended western military presence in the region. As long as foreign military presence continues in India's southwestern region, there will be popular resistance and that will make it a breeding ground for extremist and terrorist groups. India is not only shying away from facing this geopolitical reality but, in its zest to secure "global commons" with the U.S, is needlessly getting drawn into the "new great game." Unsurprisingly, Delhi no more calls for a neutral Afghanistan. It has lost its voice, its moral fibre, its historical consciousness.

 

Finally, TAPI is predicated on the U.S. capacity to influence Pakistan. Bluntly speaking, TAPI counts on human frailties — that pork money would mellow regional animosities. But that is a cynical assumption to make about the Pakistani military's integrity.

 

(The writer is a former diplomat.)

 

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THE HINDU

OPED

WE NEED PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, NOT JUST PROCESS

TWO YEARS AFTER THE 2008 GAZA CONFLICT, THERE IS NOW AN OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE ENTIRE APPROACH TO THE NEGOTIATIONS.

DESMOND TUTU AND JIMMY CARTER

 

For nearly two decades, there have been peace processes in the Middle East but no peace. In recent visits to the region including Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory we have heard a consistent message: people want peace, but are sceptical about the process and have little faith in the international community to deliver.

 

Two years after the 2008 Gaza conflict, there is now an opportunity to reassess the entire approach to the negotiations. The U.S. effort to secure from Israel another partial freeze on settlement-building as a way of resuming direct talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders has failed.

 

We urge a renewed effort, firmly based in international law and respect for human rights, that first aims to define boundaries between Israel and a new Palestinian state and address security issues. Without such focus, we will see the possibility of a two-state solution slipping even further away.

 

This approach sets challenges for Israelis and Palestinians, for their regional neighbours, for the international community, especially the U.S. Government, and for each of us as concerned global citizens.

 

Applying international law and human rights principles means that the occupation must end, and the focus of negotiations should be on the boundaries of a future Palestinian state based on 1967 borders, with its capital in East Jerusalem. Such an accord could entail, if agreed, a one-to-one land swap to allow for minor adjustments. Initial negotiations should also aim at security arrangements in which both Israelis and Palestinians have confidence.

 

Israeli settlement activity must stop throughout the occupied territories which includes East Jerusalem. These settlements are illegal under international law. So, too, is the inhumane blockade of Gaza. It must be lifted fully except for armaments. The demolition and seizure of Palestinian homes must also end.

 

In ensuring the rights of all are respected, we call on leaders and citizens to ensure that Israel's right to exist is not denied. Incitement and calls for the destruction of Israel must not be tolerated.

 

The upholding of human rights and the rule of law also places demands on the Palestinian authorities of the West Bank and Gaza. They must end all human rights violations against political critics and rivals.

 

Across the region, we believe that the Arab Peace Initiative should serve as the basis for normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world.

 

International help

It is clear, of course, that Israelis and Palestinians must ultimately agree to a solution, but they cannot do it alone. The international community must help them reach that agreement through fair and robust mediation and by reconfirming prior agreements, U.N. Security Council resolutions, the Geneva Conventions, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, all of which are being violated.

 

Nor can we, as citizens, leave such a vital issue to our governments. Each of us has to keep up the pressure on our own political leaders to show the importance we attach to achieving peace in the Middle East.

 

As Elders, we will continue to do all we can to persuade governments around the world to apply a rights-based approach to this terrible conflict and to turn the focus of initial negotiations to border and security issues.

 

We have already given our support to non-violent protest and creative civil action for peace. We will continue to do so, both morally and in person whenever we can. This is too important an issue to be left to politicians alone.

 

Without a strategy that can deliver a peace agreement based on a two-state solution, Palestinians will continue to live under Israeli occupation, millions of Palestinian refugees will continue to live without hope and Israel's survival and security remain under threat. If there is no real progress, more violence is the likely outcome.

 

The world has lived far too long with this conflict. The obstacles to peace are daunting. But one of the advantages of observing public events over many years is that we have seen how apparently irreconcilable divisions can be bridged with courage, commitment and humanity. We desperately need to see these qualities now.

 

( Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and Archbishop Emeritus of Cape Town Desmond Tutu are members of

The Elders: www.theElders.org)

 

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THE HINDU

OPED

AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN POLICY: LOOKING WEST

'TO SECURE ITS FUTURE, AUSTRALIA MUST LOOK WEST AS WELL AS EAST. THE PROFOUND CHANGES IN THE REGION DEMAND THAT WE DO SO.'

KEVIN RUDD

Australia looks to the East, it looks to the North, but it has struggled to look West.

Of course West Australians know full well how broad the Nullabor really is, but as profound as any perceived distance between Canberra and Perth, is the nation's historic reluctance to embrace the Indian Ocean region.

 

This vast region is highly diverse in its peoples, cultures, religions, political systems and levels of economic development. Its 48 countries are home to more than 2.6 billion people, almost 40 per cent of the world's population.

 

The Indian Ocean region is undergoing a major transformation. We see extraordinary economic growth in South Asia, led by the rising great power that is India. India is on track to become the world's third largest economy after the United States and China, and the world's most populous nation.

 

We also know the global influence of the Gulf States, on whom the world relies for so much of its energy needs. The Gulf's rapid infrastructure development, open trade, capital flows and labour markets are making it an increasingly important centre for regional economic growth.

 

Africa's transformation is also significant. A continent of nearly a billion people, by 2040 Africa will have the world's largest working-age population. While considerable security and development challenges persist, Africa's modern reality is more complex than some of the stereotypes of the past would suggest. Foreign direct investment in Africa is now almost as large as the flow into China when measured relative to GDP and Africa now has more middle class households than India.

 

But knowing it on paper, knowing it in our heads, doesn't yet make it fixed in our policy settings.

 

Our allies are East across the Pacific; North we have the profound strategic and economic developments across East Asia; but we must also address the great challenges and opportunities that present themselves across the Indian Ocean region.

 

Indian Ocean

 

We can no longer afford to consider the Indian Ocean as an afterthought. It is a region that grapples with the full range of security challenges, including weapons of mass destruction proliferation; terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and across the Horn of Africa; piracy in the Gulf of Aden; as well as fisheries management, food security and the impact of climate change on low lying states.

 

Australia's interests in the region are significant.

 

More than a third of Australia's maritime zone lies within the Indian Ocean, including significant current and prospective energy and resource projects. Protecting these projects, as well as continuing to assert Australia's sovereignty over our wider maritime zone, is fundamental to the nation's long term economic interests. The Indian Ocean also represents a significant fisheries resource, and is home to what are arguably the world's most important sea lanes of communication.

 

It is clear that Australia's interests in the region require an increasingly activist Australian foreign policy.

 

Since it came to office, the Government has begun to pay the Indian Ocean region the attention it deserves.

 

We have done this by enhancing Australia's engagement with South Asia, countries in the Gulf, and across Africa. We have also nurtured relations with our South East Asian partners that are also Indian Ocean states. Our closest Indian Ocean neighbour is, of course, Indonesia. Australia's relations with Indonesia have never been better. We have a strategic partnership, and our cooperation regionally and globally is close and productive. Equally, our relations with Malaysia and Singapore continue to thrive.

 

Regional bodies, CHOGM 2011

 

Australia has also strengthened its role in Indian Ocean regional bodies such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC). Over the next two years, Australia will work closely with India, as IOR-ARC Chair, to increase regional cooperation on fisheries management, customs training, energy security, and disaster management. In 2013 and 2014, Australia will itself chair IOR-ARC.

 

But we must do more.

 

To secure its future, Australia must look West as well as East. The profound changes in the region demand that we do so.

 

This is why the Government chose Perth, our gateway to the Indian Ocean and our Western capital, to hold next year's Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. This will be the largest political summit ever to be hosted in Australia. It holds the potential to deliver important benefits for Australia, as well as for our engagement with this new, dynamic Indian Ocean region.

 

( Kevin Rudd is Australia's Minister for Foreign Affairs.)

 

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THE HINDU

OPED

AMERICAN LOBBYISTS WORK FOR IVORIAN LEADER

ERIC LICHTBLAU AND HELENE COOPER

 

As the United States continued to push for President Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast to step down, two former Clinton administration officials were trying to present Mr. Gbagbo, who has clung to power despite international condemnation, in a more sympathetic light.

 

Michael Espy, the former Agriculture Secretary who is now a lobbyist, has appeared on Ivorian television on behalf of Mr. Gbagbo's government, while Lanny J. Davis, former Chief Counsel to President Clinton who was hired by Mr. Gbagbo's government this month, worked the phones and described himself as a liaison of sorts to the tainted regime.

 

Obama's campaign

 

At the White House, the lobbying efforts did not appear to be getting very far. U.S. President Barack Obama telephoned President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria on December 22 to reinforce the message that the United States wants to see African leaders — who have been working to dislodge Mr. Gbagbo — out front in the international campaign to oust him.

 

By all international accounts, Mr. Gbagbo was defeated by Alassane Ouattara in the November 28 runoff vote for president, but Mr. Gbagbo has disputed the election results.

 

The World Bank said on December 22 in a statement that it was halting loans to Ivory Coast, which would mean a cut-off of the $841.9 million that the bank committed to the country in January. The bank said in the statement that it was supporting African institutions "in sending the message to President Gbagbo that he has lost the election and needs to step down."

 

For Mr. Obama, the issue has particular resonance in part because he has sought to turn responsibility for good governance in Africa to African institutions even as he has held many African leaders at a distance. All across the continent of Mr. Obama's father's birth, Africans euphorically greeted his election as a sign that they now had an ally at the helm of the most powerful country in the world.

 

But for Mr. Obama, that adulation has come as a blessing and a curse.

 

Mr. Obama convened a forum in Washington in August to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the independence of 17 African countries, but he did not invite a single African leader to attend, an omission many African media outlets interpreted as an expression of his distaste for those rulers on the continent considered to be abusive. During his first year in office, Mr. Obama visited Ghana, where he said, pointedly, that "Africa doesn't need strongmen, it needs strong institutions."

 

That emphasis away from strongmen, White House officials said, is now a huge part of the President's strategy for dealing with the chaos in Ivory Coast. White House officials said that Mr. Obama telephoned the Nigerian President because he is the head of the Economic Community of West African States, or Ecowas, which is trying to solve the crisis. The regional group and Mr. Jonathan have won praise for explicitly calling for Mr. Gbagbo to step down. One Obama administration official said that the United States stood ready to help the regional organisation "logistically" if it decides to intervene, militarily or otherwise, in Ivory Coast.

 

American officials have also said they will impose targeted sanctions against Mr. Gbagbo and his wife, as well as high-ranking members of his government.

 

In a sign of the increasing tension in Ivory Coast, France advised its 13,000 citizens there to leave the country.

 

Lobbyist's moves

 

Mr. Davis, who helped defend President Clinton against impeachment, registered with the Justice Department earlier this month as an agent for Ivory Coast who would be paid $100,000 a month to "present the facts and the law as to why there is substantial documentary evidence that President Laurent Gbagbo is the duly elected president as a result of the November 28 elections." But he insisted in an interview on December 22 that he viewed himself not as an advocate but as a "conveyor belt" to pass information about Mr. Gbagbo to the administration and the world.

 

Of Mr. Gbagbo, Mr. Davis said he was working through liaisons to "try to persuade him to move to the middle" and to begin an international dialogue about the election. He said that a speech Mr. Gbagbo gave earlier this week, in which he appeared open to international mediation, was a sign of his progress in pushing that agenda.

 

Mr. Davis said he regards himself as a "paid George Mitchell," referring to the former senator who negotiated the Northern Ireland peace accord.

 

He said that he encouraged Mr. Gbagbo to condemn the election violence in Ivory Coast, and on December 22, the Ivorian strongman did just that, putting out a statement in which he said that he would not tolerate the killings of civilians and that anyone responsible for such violence should be prosecuted. (Despite such pronouncements, witnesses and human rights advocates have said the government's security agents have beaten, shot and killed opposition activists and residents in neighborhoods known to support Mr. Ouattara.)

 

Mr. Davis said he spoke on December 22 with a senior official at the State Department who he said "encouraged me to continue doing what I'm doing — to get them to the bargaining table without further bloodshed."

 

But the White House does not appear to see much middle ground on the issue.

 

Mr. Espy, who was travelling on December 22 and could not be reached for comment, had been in Ivory Coast this week making appearances on state television in support of Mr. Gbagbo's administration. (Mr. Espy and Mr. Davis are friends, although Mr. Davis said he was unaware of his Mr. Espy's involvement.) (Adam Nossiter contributed reporting from Abidjan, Ivory Coast.)

 

— © New York Times News Service

 

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THE HINDU

OPED

COMPUTERS THAT TRADE ON THE NEWS

CHANGE: TRADERS WITH THE SMARTEST, FASTEST COMPUTERS CAN OUTFOX AND OUTMANOEUVRE RIVALS. THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE.

GRAHAM BOWLEY

The number-crunchers on Wall Street are starting to crunch something else: the news.

 

Math-loving traders are using powerful computers to speed-read news reports, editorials, company Web sites, blog posts and even Twitter messages — and then letting the machines decide what it all means for the markets.

 

The development goes far beyond standard digital fare like most-read and e-mailed lists. In some cases, the computers are actually parsing writers' words, sentence structure, even the odd emoticon. A wink and a smile — ;) — for instance, just might mean things are looking up for the markets. Then, often without human intervention, the programmes are interpreting that news and trading on it.

 

Given the volatility in the markets and concern that computerised trading exaggerates the ups and downs, the notion that Wall Street is engineering news-bots might sound like an investor's nightmare.

 

Technological revolution

 

But the development, years in the making, is part of the technological revolution that is reshaping Wall Street. In a business where information is the most valuable commodity, traders with the smartest, fastest computers can outfox and outmanoeuvre rivals.

 

"It is an arms race," said Roger Ehrenberg, managing partner at IA Ventures, an investment firm specialising in young companies, speaking of some of the new technologies that help traders identify events first and interpret them.

 

Many of the robo-readers look beyond the numbers and try to analyse market sentiment, that intuitive feeling investors have about the markets. Like the latest economic figures, news and social media buzz — "unstructured data," as it is known — can shift the mood from exuberance to despondency.

 

Tech-savvy traders have been scraping data out of new reports, press releases and corporate Web sites for years. But new, linguistics-based software goes well beyond that. News agencies like Bloomberg, Dow Jones and Thomson Reuters have adopted the idea, offering services that supposedly help their Wall Street customers sift through news automatically.

 

Words and sentiment

 

Some of these programmes hardly seem like rocket science. Working with academics at Columbia University and the University of Notre Dame, Dow Jones compiled a dictionary of about 3,700 words that can signal changes in sentiment. Feel-good words include obvious ones like "ingenuity," "strength" and "winner." Feel-bad ones include "litigious," "colludes" and "risk."

 

The software typically identifies the subject of a story and then examines the actual words. The programmes are written to recognise the meaning of words and phrases in context, like distinguishing between "terribly," "good" and "terribly good."

 

Vince Fioramonti, a portfolio manager at Alpha Equity Management, a $185 million equities fund in Hartford, uses Thomson Reuters software to measure sentiment over weeks, rather than minutes or hours, and pumps that information directly into his fund's trading systems.

 

"It is an aggregate effect," Mr. Fioramonti said. "These things give you the ability to assimilate more information."

 

Bloomberg monitors news articles and Twitter feeds and alerts its customers if a lot of people are suddenly sending Twitter messages about, say, I.B.M.

 

Lexalytics, a text analysis company in Amherst, Mass., that works with Thomson Reuters, says it has developed algorithms that make sense out of Twitter messages. That includes emoticons like the happy-face :) and the not-so-happy :\.

 

Sceptics abound, but proponents insist such software will eventually catch on with traders.

 

"This is where the news breaks," said Jeff Catlin, the chief executive of Lexalytics. "You have a leg up if you are a trader."

 

The computer-savvy traders known as quants are paying attention. According to Aite Group, a financial services consulting company, about 35 per cent of quantitative trading firms are exploring whether to use unstructured data feeds.

 

Quants often use these programmes to manage their risks by, say, automatically shutting down trading when bad news hits.

 

But industry experts say the programmes are also moving the markets. Last May, as Greece's financial crisis deepened, Wall Street computers seized on a news story with the word "abyss" in the headline and initiated sell orders, according to industry experts.

 

Reactions

 

But some warn of a growing digital divide in the markets. Well-heeled traders who can afford sophisticated technology have an edge over everyone else, these people say.

 

Paul Tetlock, an associate professor at Columbia University who did research that was used to create the news algorithms, worries that technology has skewed the playing field. Regulators, he said, should keep a close eye on these high-speed traders.

 

"People are trading news at very high frequency," he said. "People worry about that."

 

But the experts are already talking about the next thing — programmes to automatically digest broadcast and closed-caption television. Adam Honoré, the research director at Aite Group, said the innovations did not end there. He said some traders were using software that monitored public statements by corporate executives and administered the computer equivalent of a lie-detector test.

 

"It is the next wave of trading," Mr. Honoré said of unstructured data. "It goes hand in hand with more and more of everyday life being digitised."

 

— © New York Times News Service

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THE ASIAN AGE

EDITORIAL

FARMER CRISIS TESTS AP GOVT

 

With Telugu Desam Party chief N. Chandrababu Naidu going on an indefinite hunger fast to press the case of the suffering farmers of Andhra Pradesh, and the same instrument of politics being deployed for the limited period of 48 hours by Kadapa MP Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, who is due to launch his own party after revolting against the Congress, the government of the newly ordained N. Kiran Kumar Reddy faces its first serious test since it took office recently. The Congress chief minister — seen by some as a neophyte in the area of nuts and bolts politics — needs a strong hand of support from the Centre to help the farmers in distress, and to surmount the challenge thrown at him by his opponents. He is likely to be in the midst of another crisis in the next week or so when the Srikrishna Committee on Telangana comes out with its report. If the chief minister's hand is strengthened by the Centre, he will be in a better position to deal with the fallout of the Srikrishna report. If not, prolonged political uncertainty in the state could be on the cards. This is not good for anybody. Not only will it impact negatively on the fortunes of the Congress in the only state in South India where it did not need an ally, instability would sap the administration and hurt the people. Some may be tempted to work toward the option of an unduly early Assembly election, but that is hardly the way things should go.

Farmers were hit hard by nature's fury as many as five times this year. Crop on 25 lakh acres of land has been lost on account of heavy rains and cyclones. The plight of our food-growers is self-evident. Playing politics with people's misery speaks of opportunism, not necessarily of concern for the suffering. In the case of Mr Naidu, it will be recalled that he has not pitched in for farmers in his 30 years in public life, leave alone go on a long-duration hunger fast. He was better known during his term as chief minister for catering to the urban habitation and taking health care out of the reach of the poor. Being a mature and respected politician, he might have earned laurels if he had only so much as raised the cause of the needy farmers without bringing a threatening edge to his demand. It is to be hoped that he would heed wise counsel from all quarters and end his fast before his health deteriorates any further, for that can become a political issue too and further unsettle the administration. As for Mr Jaganmohan Reddy, his short-duration protest fast is only a mobilising tool in a season in which he is doing all he can to build himself up politically. Reports suggest that he is registering a fair measure of progress, although it is not clear if playing politics with people's lives always yields political dividends.

Given the state of affairs, much is up to the good sense of the Centre. The Manmohan Singh government has been unduly slow-footed in responding to a sliding situation. The announcement of `400 crore aid from the Centre to give succour to the state's farmers appears to be a response to the protest actions by the opponents of the Congress. It should have come suo motu. Often, the essence of politics lies in the timing and the show of initiative, whether a specific demand has been made or not. The relief offered so far cannot meet the needs of the farmers, and it is beyond the capacity of any state government to deal with a crisis of the present magnitude. It will be in the fitness of things if the farm crisis in Andhra Pradesh is declared a national calamity, and financial and administrative instruments pressed into service to alleviate the misery of the agricultural community.

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THE ASIAN AGE

OPINION

A CHINDIA WORLD

SHASHI THAROOR

 

The visit of Premier Wen Jiabao to New Delhi last week has rightly received an inordinate amount of attention from the Indian press. There has been some celebration of the $23 billion in investment projects signed by the two countries during the visit, a sum that dwarfs the $14 billion signed by the US President Barack Obama when he was here. There has also been some satisfaction at the way New Delhi stood up to Beijing's attempted bullying on Tibet, in particular India's refusal to repeat its usual ritualistic endorsement of China's views on Tibet and the "One China" policy — so long as Beijing remains unwilling to show similar sensitivity to India's views on Jammu and Kashmir.

So far, so good. Trade will clearly continue to grow; the Chinese will make special efforts to open up market access to Indian companies, who have long been chafing at the "non-tariff barriers" that impede their ability to penetrate the Great Wall; and there are very strong indications that Beijing will do away with the irritant of the stapled-visa policy for Indian citizens born in Jammu and Kashmir. (If we could only succeed in getting a Srinagar-based Indian general a visa to resume defence exchanges with the Chinese military, my satisfaction would be even greater.)

But the one area on which I have seen nothing — and I mean literally nothing, not so much as a smidgen of a comment — is the potential for future cooperation between India and China, not just between themselves (in their bilateral relations), but in the multilateral arena.

The opportunities for cooperation here are in fact great. There is, first of all, the regional plane. China and India have notably strengthened their cooperation in regional affairs. China has acquiesced in India's participation in the East Asia Summit and invited India to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an observer, just as India has supported China's becoming an observer at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). While Asia is devoid of meaningful security institutions, their interlocking economic and trade relationships with each other and with other Asian countries can, and in my view will, knit China and India closer together.

But multilateral cooperation need not be confined to the Asian region. China and India have broadly similar interests and approaches on a wide range of broader international questions, from most issues of international peace and security to the principles of world trade and the ways and means of coping with globalisation. They have already begun working together in multinational forums on such issues as climate change and environment protection, and have no real differences on matters like encouraging biodiversity, promoting dialogue among civilisations, promoting population control, combating transnational crime, controlling the spread of pandemic disease, and dealing with challenges from non-traditional threats to security. All of these areas provide a realistic basis for further long-term cooperation.

One exception, alas, is the issue of combating international terrorism, where China's indulgence of Pakistani terrorist groups at the UN has been deplorable. There is little doubting that it is thanks to Beijing providing cover for Islamabad that the UN Sanctions Committee has not gone further towards proscribing the Jamaat ud Dawa and getting Hafiz Sayeed onto various international "wanted" lists. We should perhaps have taken the opportunity of Mr Wen's visit to point out that this kind of behaviour is arguably not in Beijing's own long-term interests. After all, Uighur militants in Xinjiang, radicalised in Pakistan, have been known to set off explosive devices in China and seek refuge in the Islamic Republic, hardly a practice Beijing would like to see repeated too often. But for the moment, China attaches greater importance to the strategic relationship with Pakistan than to what is still the relatively minor threat of Pakistani-inspired terrorism on its own soil.
Of course, that can change, and China-India cooperation can also improve on the issues of piracy, oil spills and other international environmental issues, nuclear disarmament and arms races in outer space, human trafficking and natural disasters — all of which are issues on which the two countries could play mutually supportive roles, take joint responsibility and contribute to the establishment of new rules in the global system. New areas of cooperation could also emerge — wildlife conservation, for instance, where both countries could co-operate on issues like the smuggling of tiger parts to Chinese customers, or disaster management, where Asia's two giants have much to learn from each other but have made no effort to do so.

Turning to the big-picture issues, it is true that in the global geopolitical arena there is one difference between us: we in India would prefer that the international institutions of peace and security, notably the UN Security Council, reflect the geopolitical realities of today rather than of 1945. Here we may not be on the same page as China, which has not shown much enthusiasm for a reform that would give us, and worse, Japan, a comparable status to Beijing's at the world's high table. But in the international economic system, there is no difference between us: we both aim to pursue a long-term objective of broad parity between the developed countries and the developing and transition economies in the international financial institutions. After all, the recent global financial crisis showed that the surveillance of risk by international institutions and early warning mechanisms are needed for all countries. Both China and India agree that developing countries should have a voice in overseeing the global financial performance of all nations, rather than it simply being a case of the rich supervising the economic delinquency of the poor.

All this is not just to assert ourselves on the world stage. India's and China's broad strategic goals must remain the same, to enable their domestic transformation by accelerating our growth, preserving our strategic autonomy, protecting our people and responsibly helping shape the world. There is a great deal more we need to do to this end — and doing it partly on the world multilateral stage, rather than simply in our two foreign ministries, is something that the mandarins in both capitals could well spend more time thinking about, and working on with each other. India and China certainly won't ever be a new G2 at the UN, but our increased proximity on the Security Council could well give us a good opportunity to start being more than distant neighbours on our ever-shrinking planet.

 

Shashi Tharoor is a member of Parliament from Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram constituency

 

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THE ASIAN AGE

OPINION

RED ALERT FOR INDIA

ARUN KUMAR SINGH

 

In 2010, India had a string of VIP visitors from the "big five" countries. First to arrive was British Prime Minister David Cameron in July. Then followed US President Barack Obama's successful India visit in November 2010, though it was somewhat dampened by the WikiLeaks disclosures. Next was France President Nicolas Sarkozy who turned on the charm offensive with sufficient help from his glamorous wife. This was followed by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India from December 15 to 17 and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's two-day trip beginning on December 21. The reason for these visits is the fact that a "rising" India is expected to play an increasingly important role in the two most "dangerous regions on earth", i.e. the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The latter, dominated by peninsular India, is crucial to global sea trade and energy flow since it connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
Significantly, the Chinese Premier's visit was uninspiring despite contracts worth $16 billion being signed and bilateral trade expected to cross $120 billion by 2014 (Mr Wen signed $35 billion worth of deals with Pakistan a few days later).

Given the border dispute and China's new assertiveness on its territorial claims in South Asia and the APR, where it is trying to "shape the geostrategic arena", can growing trade (with India's share at 33 per cent deficit) alone stabilise the region?

On November 21, 2010, China commenced work in Tibet on the first of the planned 28 dams on the river Brahmaputra for hydropower generation. Though China's latest move will further aggravate tensions, the era of "water wars" will really begin in a few years when China decides to divert Brahmaputra into its own territory (to irrigate its arid regions and replenish the water levels in the depleting Yellow river), thus converting India's Northeast into a desert.

In addition to neutralising Pakistan and China's designs in South Asia, India must oppose any Chinese attempts to convert the South China Sea (SCS) into China's territorial waters as then free flow of Indian and global sea-borne commerce from the IOR to the APR and vice-versa would be at China's mercy. Sixty per cent of India's sea-borne trade moves westwards, across the IOR to Europe and beyond, while 40 per cent moves eastward, to the APR and beyond. Given China's latest mischief of not recognising the 1,500 kms of its boundary with Kashmir as part of the disputed Sino-Indian border, India needs to declare a new policy stating that Tibet is not a part of China. Also, it needs to increase trade with Taiwan, from the present $5 million, annual level.
Mr Medvedev's visit served to consolidate Indo-Russian ties. There is no doubt that India needs to continue its traditional time-tested relations with Russia for meeting its vital defence needs (stealth fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines), civilian nuclear reactors and some crude oil from the Sakhalin oil fields. However, the United States with a global naval presence is also important to India, as it is the only military power capable of countering China.

On October 27, 2010, the US announced the construction of a $12 billion naval base on Guam Island, which along with the Pearl Harbour (Hawaii) forms the "third and last island chain" blocking China's cherished eastwards push across the Pacific Ocean. In anticipation of Chinese weaponisation of space by 2020, the US plans to launch a series of lethal robotic aerospace systems. By 2020, China aims to be capable of launching missile and cyberspace strikes on every part of the globe.

North Korea — China's proxy in APR — continues to raise tensions with the November 23, 2010, shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeondo Island and then threatening nuclear strikes, bringing Japan and South Korea closer to the US.

In my opinion, the incident like the March 26, 2010, sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan by a North Korean submarine, had the blessings of China. China provides North Korea 79 per cent of its foreign investments, 90 per cent of its crude oil, 84 per cent of its consumer goods and most of its military equipment. This scenario is almost identical to China's other proxy, Pakistan, which hopes to use US aid worth billions of dollars to buy three dozen J10 fighter aircraft, four Yuan class conventional submarines (with Air Independent Propulsion System), four Type 054 Frigates and also possibly acquire a Han-class nuclear attack submarine on a 10-year lease from China at "friendship prices".

India should brace itself to counter a Cheonan-type incident at sea or a 26/11-type of attack. While South Korea has recently "remodeled" its future military response, Japan has recently decided to increase its submarine force from 16 to 22. The Indian Navy, which is now reduced to 14 aging conventional submarines, instead of 24 that are needed, should urgently emulate the Japanese example.

The China-Pak anti-India nexus will remain unchanged for decades while China will simultaneously head for a collision course against the US as it is a stumbling block to China's territorial claims in the APR.
The world, including India, relies on sea-borne trade and oil moving safely through the IOR to various global destinations. Hence, India and the US do have mutual interests.

For the safety of sea-borne commerce, India needs "friends" to counter Chinese moves in the APR, while the US, along with the global maritime community, needs "friends" to counter the piracy and maritime terror in the IOR.

Indeed, China's expected prolonged naval deployments in the IOR by about 2030 will further aggravate the situation.

To conclude, Indo-US relations (specially in the fields of maritime, aerospace, defence and cyber security) have a bright future but they can never be "strategic" like the present asymmetrical US-Britain or China-Pakistan ties because of America's fixation with its "geostrategic ally" Pakistan.

The only way for India to avoid an inevitable war with China is to deter China with a combination of conventional and nuclear weapons capability along with diplomacy and close cooperation with other maritime nations, including the US.

For a start, India needs to increase its annual defence budget by 50 per cent and ensure that the money is actually spent and not allowed to lapse.

 

Vice-Admiral Arun Kumar Singh retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam

 

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DNA

 

MUMBAI WONDERBOY — THE NEXT SACHIN TENDULKAR?

 

498. That is the phenomenal number of runs scored by Mumbai boy, Armaan Jaffer, all of 13 years old, during a school cricket match.

 

Obviously, such a brilliant score means comparisons with the real phenomenon, Sachin Tendulkar. While it is too early to say whether Armaan measures up, there is no doubt that Mumbai, and India, will be watching this lad's progress in the days ahead.

 

Armaan's success also shows that cramped and congested Mumbai continues to be India's cradle of cricket, and continues to churn out batsmen at a regular rate. Moreover, parents are now only too happy to push their sons into sports, while just a generation ago, they only dreamt of making their sons engineers or doctors.

 

The concern, however, is that India still remains a batsman's paradise.

 

Another way of looking at Armaan's 498 is that the bowlers were simply lacking, just the way Indian bowlers

failed to trouble South African batsmen at Centurion.

 

Thus, while we are looking at a potential replacement to Sachin, we have still not found a boy who can take 10 wickets in an innings, à la Kumble in 1999, and win matches. Batsmen can score as they want, but India can only win a Test if it can take 20 wickets.

 

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DNA

JALAN PANEL REPORT GIVES REFORMS A MISS

 

The Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi)-appointed Bimal Jalan committee's report on market infrastructure institutions (MII) has triggered some debate, some dissatisfaction and a bit of irritation in some quarters, especially in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which has been planning an initial public offering (IPO) early next year.

 

The point of contention is with regard to the nature of stock exchanges. The report says that stock exchanges are public utilities and they should not be seen as for-profit entities.

 

It is for this reason the committee has recommended that the exchanges should not be listed, their ownership be diffused and there should be a cap on salaries paid to the exchange executives.

 

The other argument that has been given against the listing of exchanges is that there might arise a conflict of interest were the exchange itself to become a commercial player and seek profits when its job is to manage the trading of other market players.

 

The caution and the conservatism of the committee inherent in the report is perhaps to be attributed to the 2008 economic meltdown in the US, which triggered the global recession. But the recession is receding and financial markets have to get back to functioning in conditions of normality.

 

There is no conflict of interest if the stock exchanges were to function efficiently and also generate profits while providing trading services. While monopolies are to be discouraged, the shareholding patterns in an exchange cannot be broad-based at the start as the report suggests.

 

Starting with a small base of shareholders, an exchange that wants to grow will have to automatically broaden its shareholder base as well. A stock exchange provides the meeting point for companies to raise funds and for institutional as well as individual investors to put their money to productive use. It is, in many ways, democratisation of the financial markets. It is well worth the risks of such democratisation.

 

If India's economic success story is to grow bigger then it needs healthy financial markets, and stock exchanges have a big role to play in this. Opening up of the stock exchange space in terms of the number of players and transparency of functioning is essential.

 

There is certainly the case that stock exchange reforms cannot be effected here and now. They have to be done in a phased manner. The Jalan committee has missed the opportunity to give a broader framework for this.

 

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DNA

EDITORIAL

NO GOVT INTERFERENCE IN COMMUNITY MATTERS

 

Parsis are one of the most dynamic and charitable communities whose contribution to India is immense. But the fact is that Parsis are on the verge of extinction with a higher death than birth rate.

 

In a bid to help out, the Union ministry of minority affairs had sought to provide government aid to boost the community's fertility rate. But the Planning Commission has negated the move, saying it is not for political agencies to intervene in such social matters.

 

The commission is right. The decline of the Parsis, a well-documented phenomenon, is rooted in many reasons. The community is, by and large, prosperous and educated. This has led to late marriages and smaller families.

 

The community also has a large pool of unmarried women. Then there is the religious reason: the community refuses to allow converts, nor does it consider children of Parsi women and non-Parsi men as its own. In this day and age, this is both an antiquated and a regressive standpoint.

 

Yet, these are matters the Parsis have to resolve themselves. The good news is that within the community, debates are on. The bad news is that at present, the conservative side, which refuses to open up the community to others, holds the upper hand. Given the complex nature of the problem, it is best that the State keeps out.

 

This is not to insist on a blanket ban on government interference in community affairs. The government should intervene where individual rights, especially that of women or the lower castes, are trampled upon, or when the community chooses to hound its dissident members. The government must also interfere to insist that places of worship or burial grounds do not bar fellow members to prevent exclusive clubs within communities.

 

But boosting fertility rates is not an issue that requires the government to step in. The ministry of minority affairs is said to be upset at this decision and may appeal to a higher authority. We hope that they will, instead, accept the valid viewpoint of the panel and stay away.

 

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DNA

LESSONS I LEARNT FROM MY FIRST CHRISTMAS EVE

FARRUKH DHONDY

 

My first Christmas in Britain came as something of a surprise. I was at Cambridge University and had spent two and a half months of the first term settling into college, England, new acquaintance and writing letters to India.

 

I was living in the college dorm at the time and had not been told that during the Christmas holidays I would be required to move out.

 

My Tata scholarship didn't stretch to the extravagance of going to London. I found the cheapest room I could find, at the top of a house in a dark street.

 

Soon the other undergraduates melted away. Even some of the Indians in other colleges — Rajiv Gandhi being one — had places to go and invitations.

 

Poona seemed very far away. I moved into my gloomy attic room at the top of the empty house with the landlady in the basement flat. I arranged my worldly goods and budgeted my allowance for the next few weeks. There was a coin gas meter in the room which supplied the fireplace and the cooking ring. I soon got the measure of it and its thirst for silver coins.

 

Blankets kept me warm through the nights but during the day, having reached the coin limit, I visited the few Indian and Pakistani friends, who were still in Cambridge, in their centrally-heated hostels, but even these soon went their ways and I hit upon the stratagem of going to the University libraries, sitting close to the radiators and catching up on the complete Tolstoy.

 

Then, as the 25th approached, the libraries shut. I had lentils and rice and had bought a bag of potatoes, cans of beans and a box of eggs and, of course, tea, coffee and a half pint of milk and these provided a rich and varied diet. But cooking exhausted the gas supply and there were no coins left over from my careful budget for heating. But it was Christmas and I knew the Church would provide.

 

I carried my Anna Karenina to one or other church or chapel in Cambridge, most of which were open, heated and deserted. I would stay for as much time as would be deemed the safe side of loitering and then move on to the next one.

 

I steadfastly visualised the old Parsi ladies who sat for hours in the fire temple with an open prayer book and, having covered my Tolstoy with brown paper, hoped that any intrusive enquiry would conclude that it was a Bible.

 

The churches stayed open for Christmas. Christmas Eve was particularly snowy and I attended the evening service and sang hymns with the substantial congregation of St Mary's. A middle aged man with shiny black hair parted down the middle was standing next to me and he offered to share his hymn book with me. We sang the praises of the Lord.

 

Walking home after the service, I heard footsteps turn into my dark street. The man from the church was following me, caught up with me and began a conversation by asking if I was a student at the university. He said he'd come up to my room for coffee. I explained about the meter and he said he had plenty of coins. This was very tempting so I invited him up.

 

I was naive. He sipped the coffee I made and then took a box of talcum powder from his coat and asked if he could 'powder' me. I caught on. I kicked myself. I said I wasn't up for that sort of thing and he began to argue. I asked him to leave and he began to shout which brought the landlady's very robust son leaping up the stairs.

 

My new friend took one look at him and ran down. It all ended badly, but I suppose that's another story. Merry Christmas.

 

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DNA

SCAMMED IN THE NAME OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SCIENCE

DEVINDER SHARMA

 

This scam will never hit the headlines. It will never be the subject of a joint Parliamentary committee nor will it ever result in Parliament being blocked for days together.

 

It doesn't matter if hundreds of poor people die and millions of livelihoods are destroyed. This is a just the collateral damage that the country must live with if it has to have economic growth. It is worse than any scam we have heard about. And it involves some brilliant minds — our economists and scientists.

 

As a nation we feel outraged if a patient dies due to a doctor's neglect. We force the government to imprison the engineer when a bridge collapses. But we remain quiet when hundreds of people die from pesticides poisoning. For the past few weeks, Kerala is witnessing an unprecedented uproar over a human disaster that a potent chemical pesticide — Endosulfan — has caused. Approved for use in cashewnut plantations, the pesticide has killed close to 1,000 people, chronically disabled more than 10,000 inhabitants with neurological disorders, paralysis and deformities, but is still being pushed for commercial application. Endosulfan was considered safe for humans and the environment by the Kerala Agricultural University and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR).

 

This reminds one of the Agent Orange gas used by the Americans to defoliate forest covers in the Vietnam War. Forty years after the war ended, an estimated 500,000 were poisoned to death, and another 650,000 continue to suffer from an array of baffling chronic diseases. Like Endosulfan, Agent Orange, too, was considered safe for humans. And 40 years later, none of the scientists who approved it have been persecuted nor has the company that manufactured and marketed Agent Orange been hauled up for war crimes.

 

This is the accepted story of the shameful nexus between politics, industry, economists and scientists to slowly poison the current and the future generations; to usurp the natural resources in the name of development, bringing the world close to a tripping point; and to destroy millions of livelihoods in the name of free trade. While engineers and doctors are often brought to book under consumer laws, there is no legal mechanism that holds erring economists and scientists accountable. It all begins when economic policies and scientific decisions are taken in a 'closed and opaque' manner.

 

These policies are often designed to suit the commercial interests of particular companies.

 

Take the case of the process to justify the approval for FDI in multi-brand retail. The ministry of commerce is working overtime to tailor reports/studies in order to give an impression that big retail will be beneficial for the farmers as well as the consumers.

 

In reality, it is a massive cover-up operation that involves some research institutes as well as pliable experts who are picked to be part of the expert committees. The fact that big retail has not helped farmers and has instead led to the exit of farmers, is simply ignored. Numerous US studies that clearly show how the big retail eats into the livelihood of small shopkeepers and hawkers, exacerbating poverty, are very conveniently pushed under the carpet.

 

And if you think scientists are holy cows, think again. Over years, scientists have, with exception, turned out to be more corrupt than the politicians. Institutionalisation of corruption in science, technology and economics has already taken a massive human toll.

 

If you thought Niira Radia was the only successful corporate lobbyist, you just have to trace the influence International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) has on Indian agricultural science and you are left wondering whether the biotechnology lobbying group is designing farm research in India. Private banks and consultancy firms like Mckinsey & Co are increasingly writing the farm and health policies for India.

 

Public sector science is now becoming subservient to private interests. Take the case of the Inter-Academy Report on GM Crops prepared by the top six academies — the Indian Academy of Sciences, Indian National Academy of Engineering, Indian National Science Academy, National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, National Academy of Medical Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences. Submitted in September 2010, the report has been criticised for plagiarism and accused of blatantly siding with the commercial interests of the biotechnology industry.

 

That the top six distinguished science academies produce a report that is but a cheap public relation exercise on behalf of the biotechnology industry cannot be pardoned. It is time to stem the rot. We need to take a broom to clean the mess that has built up in the name of science and economics. This scam is much bigger than what the TV channels are telling us. And it involves human lives.

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

CONTRIVED SCENARIO

Prospects of resuming dialogue process have receded with confusion created by interlocutors 
In the absence of any other operational mechanism for propelling the long-stalled dialogue process, New Delhi-appointed interlocutors appear to be enjoying their larger-than-life image on the Kashmir scene. On the one hand their tendency to overshoot their vaguely defined job profile has been generating avoidable controversies regarding their real role in the game. On the other, misreading of their mission by some of the local stake holders continues to compound the confusion about Centre's real intention behind this move. National Conference leader, Mustafa Kamal's statement criticizing the interlocutors' style of functioning is the latest instance of how this venture can create more confusion than contributing anything really worthwhile. Primarily, the interlocutors as well as most of the political groups appear to be not quite clear about the scope of any such move. The very concept of appointing an interlocutor suggests certain specific limitations: That he/she is not assigned to hold any dialogue or engage in resolving disputes/issues. Interlocutor's role is strictly confined to establishing a channel of communication between the parties involved in the dispute or any other stake holders. They have neither any authority nor brief to cross that red line, even if no such limitation is put in black and white. 

Perhaps the confusion emanated from union home minister P Chidambaram's recent statement claiming that 'contours of a solution' (to the basic dispute) were likely to emerge within the next couple of months and that the report of the three interlocutors would provide a basis for it. Apart from the fact that this line of approach amounts to putting the cart before the horse it also compounds the confusion regarding what actually was happening on the ground and what was intended to be achieved from this exercise. It is relevant to recall that the space for introducing non-political interlocutors into the drama was virtually snatched by New Delhi from the leeway which was provided by the political intervention in the shape of direct engagement between visiting MPs and principal stake holders, namely the separatist leaders in the Valley. Dynamics of this breakthrough warranted a political-level follow up. But, for unexplained reasons, New Delhi opted for an unexpected course. Three non-political professionals were drafted to carry forward the mission. The result, to nobody's surprise, was that the advantage obtained out of the political engagement was virtually frittered away for apparently no reason. 

Dr Mustafa Kamal is right in pointing out serious flaws in the functioning of the interlocutors. Even earlier also, their inexperience in handling this kind of complex task has been showing itself in one form or the other. Their megalomania appeared to have got the better of their political judgement. Even today, their conduct on the ground gives the false impression that they were engaged (or assigned) to hold dialogue with stake holders and resolve issues between them. In fact, the interlocutors have been talking too much and too often. May be some of them are giving vent to their own repressed political ambitions about playing a 'role' in the affairs of the nation. Dr Kamal has a point in objecting to interlocutors engaging themselves in cross-talking on the ground. Their anxiety to be seen as talking to more and more people is impelling them to make strange utterances about some of the sensitive issues. It could be that the cold shouldering of the interlocutors by most of the key stake holders has compelled them to exaggerate and amplify the 'achievement' of their interaction with relatively inconsequential actors. 

So long as New Delhi does not come forth with some convincing road map this type of diversionary tactics would continue to create confusion. The centre has avoided a direct response to Syed Ali Shah Geelani's fairly reasonable 5-point proposal towards resuming the stalled dialogue process. Nor have the moderate sections of the Hurriyat Conference been shown any accommodation till now. Centre's own 8-point Kashmir package has been left hanging without any follow up. How is it possible, under these circumstances, that the interlocutors would inspire confidence or at least fulfill the objective of restoring channel of communication? Their flying visits to remote rural areas are too insufficient as worthwhile input for their own assessment. The impression is growing that they have come with a set mindset and are engaged in filling the blanks.

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

WOES OF FARMERS

ABSENCE OF DESIRED FACILITIES CREATING HURDLES

This is upsetting to note that despite the availability of around 3.10 lakh hectare agricultural land in the state, the farmers are not able to utilize the same in the absence of desired facilities. No wonder the state, which is mainly dependent on agri-economy, is relying on other states to feed its people. 7.5 lakh metric tonnes food grains and 3.5 lakhs metric tonnes vegetables are being imported from other states. As far as the farming community is concerned, they have a permanent complaint about the non-availability of fertilizers and seeds on time. Similar complaints are on account of irrigation facilities. Every year the farmers have to struggle hard to get these facilities which form the essentials of any agrarian economy. This is an irony that the J&K government has so far not been able to introduce Centre's Participatory Irrigation Management scheme, which has already been implemented across the country. While the arid areas of the state, for most part of the year, continue to crave for water for irrigation purposes, even the farmers in the plain areas don't get adequate irrigation facilities. This has always been their grievance that the water of Ranbir Canal, covering an expanse of 400 kms, does not reach the villages situated at its tail end because of silting and other related problems. Even decades after the successive governments have failed to redress the grievances of the farming community on these accounts. Not only this, moving beyond the paper horses, the concerned departments have not made any substantive efforts vis-à-vis water harvesting to ensure availability of water round the year. In 2004, the produce insurance scheme was introduced in other parts of the country but in J&K the farmers are still looking forward to avail the benefits under this scheme as the government is not willing to pay 50 percent amount of insurance premium. Costly agricultural inputs are posing yet another hurdle for the farmers who are getting the fertilizers at exorbitant rates as compared to other states of the country. Moreover in the absence of Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act in the J&K, the farming community is not getting the genuine price of its produce, which is discouraging agriculture activities and enhancing the state's reliance on other states.

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

BARE-KNUCKLE FIGHT WILL GET WORSE

INDER MALHOTRA

CELEBRATIONS of the 125th anniversary of the Indian National Congress at the party's 83rd plenary has turned into a slugfest between the core of the ruling United Progressive Alliance and the principal Opposition party, the BJP. While the Congress attack on the saffron party was confined to the issues of corruption and "subversion of the Constitution" by holding to ransom the entire winter session of Parliament, the head of the Sangh parivar (family), the Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh (RSS), fared much worse. The Congress party asked its government to probe the Sangh's "links with terrorist groups". Digvijay Singh, former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh and currently a general secretary of the party, who has been leading the attack, went so far as to compare the votaries of Hindutva to the Nazis.

 

Overwhelming emphasis on corruption at the three-day session was inevitable, given the spate of scams of gargantuan dimensions that have engulfed the Congress-dominated ruling combination. In the last article that he wrote, the upright and outspoken Socialist leader, Surendra Mohan, pointed out that during the nine years from 1980 to 1989, "there were 16 scams but, under the UPA's six-year regime, the number has multiplied three times, if not more". (Mainstream, Dec 4). Nor is it a surprise that both Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chose to make offence the better part of defence. They lambasted the BJP for adopting "double standards" – shouting against corruption in Delhi and shielding the corrupt in Karnataka.
Their task was easy because the BJP has laid itself open to this onslaught. By assiduously protecting not only the Karnataka chief minister against very serious charges of land-grab but also the Bellary Reddys notorious for allegedly monumental mining loot, the party with a difference is not just adopting double standards. It is doing something disgraceful. But what the Congress president and the Prime Minister overlook is that two wrongs can never make one right. The pot and the kettle are equally black.

Against this backdrop it is no wonder that the BJP has hit back at the Congress equally hard, declaring that the ruling party, mired deep in scandals and scams, was behaving like a "party under siege" and showing signs of suffering from "BJP-phobia". Arun Jaitley, leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, mocked that at its plenary the Congress "talked more about the BJP than about itself". As for Mr. Digvijaya Singh, a BJP spokesperson said that he could not be taken seriously because he had yet to produce the evidence of his phone call to the Maharashtra's chief of Anti-Terrorist Squad Hemant Karkare that he had "boasted" he possessed.
When the Prime Minister, invoking Caesar's wife, declared that he had nothing to hide and offered to appear before the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), the Congress-BJP confrontation escalated fast. Mr. Jaitley and other BJP leaders rejected Dr Manmohan Singh's offer out of hand. Caesar's wife, they argued, did not choose the forum where she wanted to be judged. The PAC was unacceptable because of its limited remit, and that the Opposition would settle for nothing less than a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) that the Congress seems determined resolutely to resist. Polarization of Indian polity (and consequently of Indian society) has done the country great harm already. The bare-knuckle fight in the offing would make the situation much worse. The disruption of the winter session wasn't the first of its kind, and sadly it is unlikely to be the last. At the plenary no religious tag was attached to terrorism. But what has already been said about Hindu versus jihadi terrorism has dangerous potential.

As for the galloping cancer of corruption in the country, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi's five-point plan to counter it is unexceptionable. But it should have been enunciated on the day in 2004 when the Congress had returned to power after eight years in the wilderness though it is better late than never. However, the nagging questions is: Will the "Sonia Plan" be implemented during the remaining three and half years of the UPA's present tenure? Fast-track trial of those charge with graft, state funding of elections, transparency in the award of hugely lucrative contracts and mining licenses have been talked of for decades without any action on them. And going by experience so far, it would be easier to get a collective declaration of atheism from a conclave of Cardinals than to persuade Indian politicians, irrespective of their political affiliations, to relinquish discretionary powers, especially of land allotment.

One must also say with all due respect that the Congress claim of acting and acting fast against corruption is a trifle exaggerated. It would not have been in the mess it is today if only it had acted against A. Raja at least 13 months earlier. The Radia tapes reveal a rather gloomy picture of his reappointment as minister of telecommunications and thus of the Congress stand against venality. The other day the Supreme Court indicted Vilasrao Deshmukh, a former chief minister of Maharashtra and now a Union cabinet minister, for intimidating a police officer to drop the case against a loan shark, father of a Congress MLA. If the Congress president and the Prime Minister have given Mr. Deshmukh the marching orders, the country has yet to hear of them. 
Anniversaries are undoubtedly occasions for rhetorical flourishes and grandstanding. Even so, one would have thought that at the plenary the party would do some introspection, too, because since the heady days of May 2009, its stock has plummeted and its strength in the country eroded. In the elections in Bihar it suffered ignominiously, winning only four seats compared with nine in the last assembly. Worse, in the state of Andhra that sent the largest contingent of Congress members of the Lok Sabha, the party is in a shambles and the overdue decision on Telangana will exacerbate the rolling crisis. In Maharashtra partnership with Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress party is the problem. And of the alliance between the Congress and Mamatadi in West Bengal the less said the better.

Come to think of it, the most revealing moment at the plenary was when a large number of Bihar delegates heckled Mukul Wasnik and angrily told the leadership that he had "sold" almost all the 241 seats that the party contested and of which it lost the deposit in 207. At the Congress centenary at Mumbai in 1985 Rajiv Gandhi had vowed to eliminate the "brokers of power and influence" who "ride on the backs of millions of ordinary Congress workers" and have converted "a mass movement into a feudal oligarchy". Twenty-five years on, the promise remains unfulfilled. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi has delegated this task to a special shivir (camp) a la Pachmarhi and Shimla. Let's wait and watch.

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

NO CARDS, THIS CHRISTMAS...!

BY ROBERT CLEMENTS

There's some bamboo trelliswork in my sitting room, that gets very colourful every year during Christmas time,

 

but this year it looks plain bamboo.

"There's just one Christmas card to stick into your bamboo!" says the wife.

"Christmas card?" asks my younger one, "What's that?"

"This!" I say showing the card that's come all the way from my eighty year old aunt in an old folk's home in Toronto.

"It's got a picture on it!"

"And a handwritten greeting inside!"

"When did it come?"

"In the first week of December!"

"Why ever would anyone send Christmas greetings so early?"

"Because your aunt thinks the postman will be overloaded during Christmas and New Year!"

"Postman?"
"Yeah, the guy who brings our mail!"

"Google?"
"His name's not Google, it must be Kumar, or Yadav or Sharma, depending who the postmaster general was when he joined!"

"What?"
"A postmaster general gets all his relatives into his department, just as the communications minister got all his into his ministry!"

And my younger one, looks at so much of information and shakes her head.

"What's the problem?" I ask irritated.

"Why couldn't she just send it by Google?"

I look at her and say, "Once upon a time, there was no Google, no Yahoo, no webmail!"

"Ha, ha, ha, you must be joking dad?"

"And postmen trudged from door to door delivering greeting cards and letters!"

"There must have been a million postmen dad? I get a hundred letters in my Google mailbox every day!"

"People wrote less those days," I said, "They had to pay for each letter, fix a stamp on it, walk to a postbox and send it!"

"When was this dad?"

"Hardly ten years ago, " I say and the doorbell rings. I open the door and look at four grinning faces, "Christmas bakshish saar!"

"Come," I tell the younger one, "Have a look at the postmen!"

"Four of them," she says, "So many cards?"

"No card," says Yadav, or is it Kumar, "Only bakshish, card come by email..!"

And I look at that single card from an aunt in an old folks home in Toronto, and I treasure it in my heart.
bobsbanter@gmail.com

 

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

THREAT FROM SKIES

 

A report about the violation of air space by Pakistani army helicopters in R.S. Pura tehsil of this district on December 21 has evoked requisite concern. Due notice has been taken of it everywhere. There is no way we could have ignored this incident. For, there is no let-up in mischief from across the Line of Control (LoC) and the International order (IB) to push in armed infiltrators. It is a normal practice for Pakistan army to provide firing cover to intruders. The use of helicopters for such purpose could only be considered far more sinister. Prima facie, it is suspected, that at best it might have been a spying mission intended to take photographs of our border areas. Two to three minutes, which is the time said to be been spent by the alien flying machines, are enough for the purpose given modern technology. The possibility that they may have strayed unintentionally can't be ruled out either. In that event this instance would amount to an infringement of an agreement between the two countries that their armed aircraft would not fly within ten kilometres of each other's airspace (unarmed transport aircraft and helicopters are permitted within 1000 metres of the border). Therefore, it may not exactly be deemed to a direct violation as these have not crossed over into our territory. A movement like this, however, is enough to raise temperatures. Once in the "no fighter aircraft zone" a plane can reach up to this city in a matter of seconds. We have seen this happening during 1965 and 1971 wars. The enemy fighters would then keep us on our toes in the midst of deafening sounds of anti-aircraft guns. Many young persons of those periods are well trained in civil defence. They had rallied behind the Army and taken care to look after, to the best of their resources, the people uprooted from border regions. 

 

The moment an unwanted plane is cited in our vicinity our apparatus gets into action to take care of any eventuality. This time it has been no exception. A red alert was sounded in the Jammu sector. This is a matter of satisfaction. We must be watchful. It is common for Pakistani aircraft in particular to breach our airspace. Only recently Union Defence Minister A.K. Antony has let it be known that Pakistan has been responsible for 23 of 29 violation of our airspace during the past three years. China (3), the United States (2) and Bangladesh (1) have followed in that order. At times there are aberrations compelled by bad weather or technical problems. There are chances of planes losing their way in high mountains. These diversions can also be deliberate to test our preparedness --- our reaction, radar system and defence. 

Our only choice is to ensure that our safety measures are in place. We should be in a position to respond forcefully the moment there is an actual threat. At least two of our neighbours are capable of doing anything to harm us. The past experience lends credence to this perception. As it turns out to be our forces are very cautious and fairly well equipped. Time and again they are called upon to check infiltration bids through the land routes. With the eyes of eagle they are watching the skies too. 

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

ANOTHER SHOCKER

 

Close on the heels of the revelation that we have not timely used the liberal Central assistance for setting up 18 polytechnics is another shocker. The only Government College for Engineering and Technology (GCET) in this city is unable to function according to expectations. It was expected to be a model on the lines of the Regional Engineering College (REC) in Srinagar. The REC has since been given the status of the National Institute of Technology (NIT) as a deemed university. The GCET is slow in moving upwards. A report in this newspaper has noted its tortoise-like pace: (a) it was established in the old campus of the Jammu University in 1994; (b) its proper campus was planned to be set up in Mariali (Chak Bhalwal), about 22 kilometres from the old campus, in 1996; (c) the actual work, however, could begin only after two years in 1998; and, (d) the progress till today is disappointing --- only five complexes have come up so far against the proposed 20. It is anybody's guess that the latest deadline for completing the entire scheme in 2012 is unlikely to be met. A simple construction work thus appears to be a Herculean task. As a consequence there are infrastructural problems: (1) the administration is functioning from the old campus while studies are being held in the new venue; and (2) students of some courses have to shuttle between the two places to maintain the required balance between theory and practical. On the top of it all there is an amazing disclosure which is confirmed by no less a person than the concerned minister. It has been stated that there are no recruitment and pay rules. There are employees who have been working in the same post with the same pay ever since their recruitment 15 years ago. About 12 members of the faculty have left the job with no chances of assured increase in salaries. Such possibility can't be ruled out given that a number of private engineering colleges have surfaced in the meantime requiring trained staff to justify their existence. There are other difficulties as well --- lack of sufficient manpower for attending to the maintenance of the new campus, ill-equipped hostel, feeble security network and poorly staffed dispensary. 
How can such an establishment be described as enough? As long as it is not honed to perfection it is impossible for the GCET to meet its declared vision "to build a vibrant, multicultural, learning environment founded on value based academic principle wherein all involved should contribute effectively, efficiently and responsibly to the nation and global community. "Strange though it may sound, in some informed circles the GCET is still considered the best of all institutions of its kind in this region. What should that imply if not that private engineering colleges are worse placed in every sense? There is need for us to have a close look at the entire scenario. Non-government bodies too are bound by certain rules and regulations. We do require highly qualified engineers who are appropriately educated. We can get them only if we provide the aspirants requisite facilities. It is necessary for not only our State's development but for image too. We should not be content with the situation as it exists today.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

RESPONSIBLE ROLE FOR THE OPPOSITION

ON THE SPOT

BY TAVLEEN SINGH

 

In long years of covering politics and governance in our fair and wondrous land I can think of no other time when our political class has let us down as badly as they have in the dying days of this year. Just when every major leader in the world has come to New Delhi to pay court and show how seriously India is being taken as an emerging market and international player we have seen our own political leaders make it painfully clear that they are wrong. We remain a third rate third world country and we want to stay that way seems to be the message that our political leaders wish to send. So even as we should be discussing the issues that arise from the visits in the past few months of the Presidents of the United States, France and Russia and the prime ministers of Britain and China we are embroiled in a seemingly meaningless debate about whether a joint parliamentary committee should be discussing the 2G scam or whether it should be discussed by some other investigating authority.
To tell you the truth I am as mystified as you may be about why the opposition parties wasted an entire session of Parliament over this issue and even more mystified about why the Congress Party should take such serious objections to a joint parliamentary committee. When I first made inquiries about this I was given to understand by friends in Congress that the objection to a JPC was that it would be able to order the Prime Minister to appear before it. Sonia Gandhi has on more than one occasion confirmed this by asserting, more loudly and aggressively than she usually does, that the Prime Minister is the embodiment of integrity and that the opposition attack on him was 'despicable'. Surprised by her unusually strong words I made some more inquiries and discovered that it was not the Prime Minister she was worried about but the possibility that she herself might be ordered to testify before a JPC. Why should this worry her, I asked my informant, and he said, 'Don't you see that it could shatter the mystique that surrounds her?'

 

No I do not see. Anyone who wishes to enter politics anywhere in the world has to be prepared to face public scrutiny. Those who want to live private lives must find jobs that allow them privacy. Nobody who wishes to stand for election and enjoy the fruits of great political power has the right to shy away from public scrutiny. But, it is not just India's Supreme Leader who is letting the country down it is the political class as a whole. If you paid even casual attention to the Congress Party's 83rd annual meeting you may have noticed that most speeches made at this convention had little or nothing to do with the issues that are of great importance to modern India.

 

Everyone who spoke, including Rahul Gandhi and his Mummy, expressed their views in the most banal terms so what we got were generalities about ending corruption and every other issue. Soniaji offered us a list of five things she believes will end corruption and the suggestions were not bad but it would have been far more interesting to hear her views on A. Raja's long and ugly innings in the Ministry of Telecommunications. Does she think it was a good idea for him to stay so long in the job? Why does she think he was not removed earlier? When she as this government's presiding deity saw him bend rules and manipulate policies to favour friendly capitalists why did she say nothing? If we had heard her answers to specific questions like these we might have understood if she were serious about wanting to reduce corruption in public life but not only did she not give any answers at the All India Congress Committee meeting nor did anyone else.

What is equally sad is the manner in which the Bharatiya Janata Party has decided to make corruption an issue in the streets. On Wednesday the BJP pulled out its biggest leaders for a rally in New Delhi's Ram Lila grounds and they made speeches that could easily mislead ordinary Indians into thinking that we have a general election possible less than half way through the term of this government. This is the first of many more rallies, according to the BJP, and the truth is that what we are seeing is more evidence that none of our political parties have understood that the times have changed. Rallies of this kind belong to an older time when the world moved more slowly and India more slowly even than the world. We could afford for our political leaders to waste their time at rallies because the issues that needed to be addressed were not so urgent. Today, they are and if every issue is going to be taken to the streets we can be sure that India's shiny new image as an emerging market and a potential economic superpower will quickly be shattered.

We need to address not just corruption with urgency and purposefulness but problems of infrastructure, education, healthcare, sanitation and urban planning. And, this is just a short list. For these issues to be discussed seriously we need Parliament to function and the opposition parties to play a responsible role inside Parliament. We do not need political rallies and street fighting. We need senior opposition leaders to keep the Government permanently on its toes about what it is doing to address these very serious problems. So far there is no evidence that any of our opposition parties, leave alone the biggest of them, has begun to understand this.
If they had, L.K. Advani would be discussing the deals we signed last week with the Russian President instead of rabble rousing. What are his views on the $30 billion worth of deals that the Indian government signed with Russia last week? Does he have any views on the nuclear power plants we are buying from France? Does he have views on nuclear power in general? 

 

We have no idea what the opposition thinks of these things and unless we do why should we vote for them next time? Why is this so hard for our opposition parties to understand? But, then as I said at the beginning of this piece this is a moment when our entire political class seems to be in suicidal mode. We can only hope that things improve in 2011.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

TIDING OVER FARM WOES

BY SATYENDRA PRATAP SINGH

 

As 2010 fades into history, I wonder whether the New Year will bring any hope for farmers. For several years now I have been silently praying and hoping that at least this New Year farmer will have something to cheer. But, unfortunately, it has not happened. With every passing year, their economic condition has further deteriorated.

Excessive use and abuse of chemical fertilisers has poisoned the soils; hybrid crop varieties being pushed at a subsidised price have destroyed the soil fertility and sucked the groundwater dry; drenching crop fields with all kinds of chemical pesticides has not only poisoned the food that we eat but have also brought in more pests; and finally the farmer is left high and dry with no income in hand.

There is no denying that much of the blame would rest with farm officials and university scientists for creating a bloodbath that we witness on the agriculture front. There is hardly a day when dozens of farmers across the country are not drinking chemical pesticides to end their lives. In the past 15 years, more than 2, 00,000 farmers have committed suicide. Millions of farmers continue to somehow live in perpetual indebtedness.
Blaming the Government is not without any reason. But somewhere deep down, farmers do know that they are equally at fault. The greed to make a fast buck has lured them to unsustainable farming systems. Over the years, farmers have become completely dependent upon what seems to be a well laid out trap by the agribusiness industry. No wonder, the profits of the industry grew whereas farmers were left to die.

However, much of the farm crisis has in many ways been created by farmers themselves. How long can you go on passing the buck to the Government and the agricultural university? Why can't you resolve to turn agriculture more income-generating and sustainable in the long-run? And don't tell me it is not possible. If you had refrained from following the herd, and adopted low-external input sustainable faming systems you would have been the role model.

Here is a farmer who has shown the way. Meet Subhash Sharma, a farmer from Daroli in Yavatmal district in the heart of the suicide belt of Vidharba. At a time when thousands of farmers in Vidharba have taken the fatal route to escape the humiliation that comes along with increasing indebtedness, he provides his farm workers with bonus and leave travel concession. If this farmer can do it, there is no reason why others cannot live in eternal happiness.

Sharma is not a big landlord. He owns only 16 acres of farm land. And like most of the farmers in the country, he too was in the thick of a vicious cycle of external inputs and perpetual indebtedness. Fed up, he then decided to abandon the fertiliser-pesticides model of farming, and shift the organic cultivation, and the turnaround has led me to a new beginning.

He says that the only way to pull out farmers from the vicious cycle of indebtedness is to push them out of the Green Revolution model of farming. It is during the workshops that he is conducting in several parts of the country that he teaches them by practical training on how to shift to natural farming practices and thereby emerge out of indebtedness.

From 16 acres of land, if Sharma can demonstrate an economically viable model, with inclusive social equity and justice, you too can do it. Here lies the answer to agricultural growth and also to country's food security. He has even built up a corpus, a Social Security Fund, of approximately Rs. 15 lakh, for meeting any eventuality that the workers might encounter. Some death in their family or the marriage of the girl child does bring additional burden, and some relief comes from the Social Security Fund. He also shares the cost of education of their children and other health expenses. Isn't this a dream that every farmer cherishes but is never able to realise?

Well, when was the last time you heard farm labourers being given an annual bonus and leave travel allowance? Now, don't be startled, Sharma provides an annual bonus to his team of workers - 16 men and 35 women - who labour on his farm. They get something like Rs. 4.5 lakh every year as bonus, which means roughly Rs. 9,000 per person. How many farmers, including big landlords, in any other state provide bonus to farm workers?
The problem is that farmers' unions have failed to educate their members. They only organise protests demanding higher prices or opposing trade policies, but rarely do you find them taking upon themselves the monumental task of reviving agriculture. Instead of spending energies to contest elections, farmers' forums need to take on the responsibility of holding farmers' training schools to resurrect farming, bring in natural farming system which are not only sustainable but profitable. There is no reason why every farmer cannot aspire to be the new generation farmer like Sharma. INAV

(The writer is former additional director general, Indian Council of Agricultural Research)

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

WEN'S INDIA VISITHIGH ON SYMBOLISM, LOW IN SUBSTANCE

BY AJAY KAUL

 

The die-hard optimists might feel let down but the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's India visit went as per the expectations — high in symbolism and low in substance.

 

It is important to understand that the visit by the Chinese Prime Minister itself had ample significance considering the backdrop in which it took place.

 

Relations between the two countries witnessed a low in the months preceding the visit after Chinese provocation touched the intolerable limits when it denied a proper visa to Northern Army Commander Lt Gen B S Jaswal.

The act amounted to taking further China's twoyear- old practice of issuing stapled visas to people from Jammu and Kashmir which is seen as questioning the state's integration with India.

An angry New Delhi hit back by suspending high level defence exchanges.
Coupled with stapled visa issue, China's engagements in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) also increased, much to the chagrin of India which sees it as a provocative act.

Even the presence of Chinese Peoples Liberation Army personnel was found in PoK.

These actions of China, besides the ongoing ones like aggressive building up of infrastructure on the border with India and damning of the Brahmaputra river, added to the angst in India and led to a chill in the relations to some extent.

New Delhi also has been unhappy over the expanding trade imbalance because of denial of access by China to Indian goods like pharmaceuticals and automobiles and services like IT.

India repeatedly took up these issues with Chinese leadership, including at Prime Minister's level during a meeting in Hanoi in October last and subsequently during the talks between Special Representatives in Beijing last month.

But China refused to budge. Against this backdrop, Wen decided to undertake a visit to New Delhi, accepting an invitation India had extended as part of its intention to have top leaders of all the permanent five countries of the UN Security Council here during 2010.

For the realists, no miracles were expected from the visit. And true to such expectations, the practical outcomes were not so substantive as contentious issues like stapled visa remained where they were.

Wen, in fact, turned out to be smart as he preempted Singh from raising the stapled visa issue by himself bringing it up and suggesting that officials of the two countries should hold "in-depth" discussions to resolve it.
This was quite brazen as there is nothing to discuss on it and only the Chinese Government has to stop the practice.

Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao was clear on this as she said that the ball was in China's court on the issue. She also underlined that the defence exchanges would remain suspended till the "basis" is created to resume these.

As China indicated no shift in stance over stapled visa issue, India asserted itself by refusing to include in the Joint Communique an oft-repeated policy statement about 'One-China' wherein Tibet is accepted as an autonomous part of China.

This was to pinch China where it hurts the most as it underlines the fact that India treats anything related to Jammu and Kashmir as sensitive as Beijing treats anything related to Tibet. Results on this will be awaited.
What was more discomforting for India was the Chinese side's clear attempt to prevent any adverse remarks regarding Pakistan on account of terrorism in the Joint Communique. China also refused to agree to inclusion of reference to Mumbai attacks, demonstrating its true friendship towards Pakistan.

The negative attitude, seen in the form of pinpricks to India, may be linked to the mindset of the Chinese leadership.

China, currently the fastest growing economy in the world, considers itself a power which has already arrived on the international scene. It is not comfortable with India emerging as a competing power, particularly when India is being seen as an ally.

Thus, in an attempt to keep troubling the competitor, China is indulging in all the tactics that it is.
However, even as China displayed negative attitude towards India's core concerns, the two sides agreed on a number of initiatives in peripherial noncontroversial issues.

They operationalised hotline between their Prime Ministers and signed six pacts, including one on green technology and two in banking sector.

With the bilateral trade booming, the two sides also set a new target of 100 billion dollars to be achieved by 2015, raising from the 60 billion dollars which is set to be achieved this year.

The two sides also agreed to establish a strategic economic dialogue to enhance macro-economic policy coordination and address the issues and challenges in the world of commerce.

On India's aspirations for permanent membership of UN Security Council, China moved a little bit forward.

"China attaches great importance to India's status in international affairs as a large developing country, understands and supports India's aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations, including in the Security Council," the Joint Communique said.

Wen also said that a country of billion people should play a greater role in the UNSC.

Though it did not clearly refer to the permanent seat for India in the UNSC, it marks a forward movement as earlier it has been vaguely saying that China understands and supports India's aspirations to play a role in international arena.

But while displaying negative attitude towards India's concerns, Wen was good at symbolism reflected through warm body language and peppy talk.

He repeatedly said that India and China are not rivals but partners and in future the two countries should carry forward their work in the crucial stage of development.

"Heart-to-heart exchanges between the two countries will help in further boosting the ties between China and India," he remarked.

The Chinese Premier said the two countries should increase their cooperation in various fields and have made greater contributions to the building of a harmonious world of enduring peace.

The next few years would be crucial in determining where the relationship is headed as China is going to witness a change in leadership in 2012.

But as both the countries vie to be world powers, their relations are expected to continue to be uneasy.
In this struggle, India will have to demonstrate guts and mindset of a power if it wants to become one. (PTI)

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

LOSS OF LIFE IN ACCIDENTS

BY SANJAY KUMAR

 

In this post-modern and globalised world if there is something having immeasurable value then it is the 'human resources'. Almost every state is desirous to develop its human resources and infact there are distinct ministries for the purpose (like HRD). But, ironically, it is happening the other way round; the clock is running in the reverse direction. Whether you take the example of big nuclear disasters like Bhopal gas tragedy or any other accident people are being killed like anything.

In the present context I am particularly concerned about the unwanted accident that occurred on the Udhampur-Ramnagar-Ghordi road near channi morh, two days back, in which more than five persons were killed and many others were injured. Many families left without food because there is no body to earn; the only earner got killed in the accident. What were the reasons of this mishap are as usually unknown.

Moreover, this is not the first time when this sort of accident occurred on this road. Even few days back one accident took place on the same road near Ghaghote. Similarly, many terrible accidents had happened on this route; one such occurred in Barmeen, a station on Udhampur-Ghordi road which connects Ramnagar and Udhampur via Ghordi, where 35 persons were killed.

Apart from everything the most significant question is why the accidents like this occur frequently. It seems as if it is some routine of the concerned authorities. On behalf of the people of this region one must ask the question that what is the reason of this sort of attitude of government in general and the concerned departments in particular? It seems apparent that they are in complete failure to avoid this sort of accident.
So far as general observation is concerned it is nothing more than the unconcerned attitude of the authorities; they are more into their own business rather than taking care of people of their region. First and foremost is the issue of vehicles which have been running in this area including Ghordi-Ramnagar-udhampur. They all are not in travelling condition. They are in a condition that each part of their body moves except engine. They are in such a condition that they consume more petrol and travel less. Due to this reason the travel agents over-load the passengers which lead to the accidents. 

Secondly, drivers are not trained enough to drive on busy roads, but have been issued licences to hill and cause accidents. 

Interestingly, in the modern world we talk about saving our wildlife (like Tigers) at a time when we are at complete failure to save the human life. I think one should stop playing the drama of saving the tigers if we fail to save humans. If this is the situation, how come we debate in the development of human resources?
I appeal to the concerned authorities to take necessary action in this direction because it is an issue pertaining to the common people They authorities can derive their meaning only when people or masses are there and they are valueless without the support of the people. Also, I would like to appeal to the masses of the concerned area to wake the authorities up and make them realize their duties and social responsibilities.

(The author teaches at Degree College Poonch)

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

DESTRUCTIVE POLITICS

BJP'S REJECTION OF SPECIAL SESSION IS RETROGRADE

 

UNION Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's surprise offer of a special session of Parliament to debate whether a Joint Parliamentary Committee ought to be set up to examine all aspects of the 2G spectrum allocation scam has been spurned by the Opposition. If Mr Mukherjee was hoping that it would break the logjam between the Treasury benches and the Opposition and lead to the smooth passage of the general budget in February his conciliatory gesture has indeed failed. Both sides must bear responsibility for the recently-concluded winter session having ended without transacting any business because of the inflexible position they took, but the latest refusal of the BJP to accept the proposal for a special session is retrograde and smacks of lack of sincerity to the cause of parliamentary democracy. Let there be no mistaking the fact that Parliament is the appropriate forum for the Opposition to put the government on the mat and by shying away from it, it is belittling the sanctity of the forum.

 

The Opposition has a point of view on the issue of the relative merits of a JPC over a Public Accounts Committee. It feels that the PAC would essentially examine the 2G issue from an auditor's standpoint while the political aspects of a tainted A. Raja being retained in the Telecom portfolio after the UPA returned to power in the 2009 elections due to jockeying within the ruling coalition would be ignored. The sharp divergence in thinking between the UPA and the Opposition should be reason enough for the latter to tear the UPA's stand apart through arguments in a re-convened Parliament. For the voting public, this manner of beating the Treasury benches argument for argument would enhance the Opposition's acceptability in their eye. But leaders of the BJP and the Left parties seem to have a stake in keeping the pot boiling.

 

There is indeed no dearth of issues for the Opposition to embarrass the government on if Parliament were to be the forum that it is intended to be. The government would have been hard put to explain the spate of corruption scandals and the mismanagement that has led to the spiralling prices of essential commodities, especially onions. It is the ill-advised destructive politics of the BJP and the Left that has let the Manmohan Singh government off the hook.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

EDUCATE AND PROFIT

ENCOURAGE PRIVATE SECTOR IN EDUCATION

 

PROFIT is still a dirty word for many. Therefore, the talk of "education for profit" at a Confederation of Indian Industry function in Delhi on Wednesday must have shocked some. However, pragmatic industrialists feel no prick in the conscience while asking for reasonable returns on investment in education. They will not provide education to suffer losses. Excesses and irregularities by private educators are also known. The state has a regulatory role and can dictate terms when concessions are granted like cheap land and tax relief. Otherwise, government officials should not interfere unless there is a breach of law.

 

Private educational institutions tend to charge hefty fees, which make them inaccessible to students from families with modest means. But there are parents who do not mind buying quality education, even if expensive, for their children. Not many may like to send their children abroad if top foreign institutions are allowed to set up campuses here. The private sector can supplement the government efforts to make education access universal. Liberal government scholarships and bank loans can help students pursue courses of their choice in institutions they want to. The shortage of good educational institutions is acutely felt. Partly because of this the enrolment for higher education is just 13 per cent in India.

 

Besides, a greater role of the private sector in education will help the government focus more on the remote and other neglected areas. Ideally, education along with health and infrastructure building should be a government's responsibility. Universal free schooling and affordable college and university education are expected of a welfare state. However, governments often misspend or squander public money. Despite recent budgetary hikes the UPA government spending on education is still below the level of 6 per cent of the GDP suggested by the Kothari Commission way back in 1968. Even the so-called progressive states of Punjab and Haryana spend just 2.23 per cent and 2.05 per cent of their GDP on education, respectively. Hence, private investment needs encouragement.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

EXPANDING THE HORIZON

SGPC NEEDS TO BE PRO-ACTIVE

 

THE Sikh diaspora has a sizable presence in a number of nations around the world, and the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) has done well to recognise the concerns and issues that Sikhs abroad have to deal with. Among other things, they have to explain the essence of their religion and the teachings of the Sikh Gurus to a foreign audience. For this they need authoritative, explanatory literature written in contemporary idiom. The SGPC's original role of managing Sikh gurdwaras has expanded over the years. The committee needs to address the 21st century by producing and dispensing information in English and other languages so as to provide better understanding of the Sikh scriptures and ethos.

 

The Sikhs, both in India and abroad, seek guidance from the SGPC on various matters. This has been so for over a century and there are many instances of the committee deciding on conscientious matters brought to its attention by the foreign sangats. Even when they do not live in India, the Sikhs wear turbans and are thus visible minorities wherever they are. In the post-9/11 security scenario, this has brought them in conflict with the authorities most notably, but not exclusively in France. The French authorities have banned turban-wearing children from government-funded schools, and require Sikhs not to have their pictures taken for IDs without any turban. In the US, the request to remove a turban for security checks has created various embarrassing situations, including one instance involving the permanent Indian representative to the United Nations.

 

The SGPC's plan to set up a panel to address the concerns of the Sikh diaspora is indeed laudable. It would be a good forum to both understand the concerns of the community abroad, as well as address them. In the global village that the world has become, the Sikhs need an effective leadership with an international vision. The SGPC is now looking at establishing offices in various countries. It would do well to prepare well before embarking on such endeavours. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

THAT WILL BE THE DAY!

BY JUSTICE RANJIT SINGH

 

WITH negligible exceptions, our daughter, married in Chandigarh, spends her evenings with us with her two tiny siblings as a ritual. A day before Diwali, she and her two daughters were with us. I, being free from the normal burden of going through "Katcha Peshi" due to Diwali holidays was playing with the kids. Suddenly, a younger one, about two years old, came up with a demand in her sweet toddler voice: "Balloon chahiye" (I want balloon).

 

The demand was made with so much conviction that it was irresistible for me to ignore or avoid it. I straightaway went for my walking shoes and was off to a nearby market. My wife joined me as she had not gone out for a walk for a few days.

 

It was late in the evening and lights had been switched on to beat the darkness. Within minutes, we had finished the purchase and were on to our return journey. While coming back, we followed the lanes, where some of the powerful babus on high assignment and some politicians are housed. There were virtual traffic jams in front of the houses. Swanky cars and SUVs were lined up with people coming out and entering various houses in turn with heavy packages in toe. Policemen guarding the gates were escorting these well-to-do guests with due respect.

 

We had to wade through the scramble of Mercedes, Audis and Fortuners. While negotiating this newly noticed rush in the otherwise quiet lanes, my wife broke her silence murmuring: "Is it not corruption"? She continued with her tirade observing: "One can accept costly gifts on Diwali and still maintain that one has been honest".

 

I was searching for words to react but could not dare to contradict her. Indeed, I had no reason to differ with her. While proceeding further, we heard one group telling a sentry at the gate: "Bata dena main aya tha" (convey that I had come).

 

As we walked towards our house, my wife still could be heard saying: "kee eh kadi khatam hoega" (will this ever stop).

 

One could realise the real implication of the observations innocently made on reading a news item the following morning. "Corporates take luxury route," was the headline in one of the leading newspapers. The list of gift items and their values as reflected could not be termed only as 'pampering' friends but would take the colour of corruption or of bribe.

 

Those who come to give Diwali greetings perhaps even do not bother to know if one has had some tragedy in the family in the recent past and may not be in a celebration mood.

 

Some of these people would have never come to share moments of grief with their benefactors. Diwali pampering is certainly not meant to convey greetings but is another way of bribery. I kept thinking if it would ever stop and went to sleep, hoping that "Wo Subah Kabhi to Aayegi" (that time would come sometime).

 

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THE TRIBUNE

ARTICLE

INFRASTRUCTURE CAULDRON ON THE EASTERN FRONTIER

REPORTS OF CHINA BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING ITS EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IN TIBET CONTINUE TO FLOW IN REGULARLY. THE LATEST IS THAT CHINA IS BUILDING 24 NEW PROJECTS ALONG ITS SIDE OF THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER. WHILE CHINA HAS CONSTRUCTED A VAST NETWORK OF ROADS, TUNNELS, RAILWAYS AND AIRFIELDS THAT ENABLE MASS RAPID MOVEMENT OF TROOPS TO THE BORDER, THE PICTURE ON THE INDIAN SIDE CONTINUES TO BE DISMAL, WHICH IS FRAUGHT WITH STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL DISADVANTAGES  

MAJ GEN RAJ MEHTA (RETD)

 

DEFENCE Minister A.K. Anthony was reportedly shocked when, in December 2007, he personally saw the terrible state of the Nathu La axis in Sikkim vis-à-vis the swish Chinese infrastructure across. The traveller today experiences a sickening feeling of déjà vu. Our border infrastructure is as somnolent as it was in 2007. The strategic 165 km long National Highway 31-A linking Siliguri through Gangtok in Sikkim to the Indo-Chinese border at Nathu La (14,300 feet) still looks bombed out, devastated and gutted. Blocked by landslides, ridden with pot-holed patches and untidily strewn road-widening activity, a one-way journey on this Border Roads Organisation (BRO) road, Sikkim's lifeline, takes over eight backbreaking hours. NH-31A truly represents the dismal state of border infrastructure in the northeastern region, reflected accurately by the state of the equally strategic NH-31 linking Siliguri to the "seven sisters".

 

No better proof of government apathy is more evident than from the 8th report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence tabled in August 2010. Titled Construction of Roads in the Border Areas of the Country, it savagely indicts the "casual attitude" of the Ministry of Defence. One excerpt reads: "It is truly mind-boggling that the Defence Ministry has no data on the roads being made by neighbouring countries in the border areas… Then there is the BRO, which conveniently deflects the question on the slow pace of construction of roads in border areas due to "historical" reasons. Really, did the Government of India actually believe till two years ago… that we should not make roads as near to the border as possible....incomprehensible and inconceivable".

 

Commenting on the Ministry's two Long Term Perspective Plans (LTTP-I and LTTP-II) for augmenting border roads, the Committee notes, "out of the 277 roads of the length of 13,100 km to be built till 2012, only 29 are complete and work is in progress on 168 other roads. No work has yet started in respect of 80 roads measuring 2,624 Km." The Committee has pulled up the BRO for its inexplicable "sense of complacency".

 

It is tragic that the visionary letter that then Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel, wrote to Nehru on November 7, 1950 is, 60 years later, an eloquent strategic statement which has not been acted upon. Patel had cautioned Nehru with prescience that a long-term view was needed for "improvement of our communication, road, rail, air and wireless, in border areas and frontier outposts". Nehru never responded, but left as legacy, the incomprehensible ostrich policy of not developing our border areas.

 

Compare this with the Chinese approach. In 1950, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) entered Tibet with two slogans: "Development", and "Strengthening the Borders". These remain constant even in 2010. China has created and upgraded the entire spectrum of infrastructure in Tibet — from railways to roads, power projects, cities, airports, military and missile bases. With Lhasa connected by rail, the network is being extended to Nepal and to the Indo-Chinese border at Shigatse, north of Chumbi Valley and Tsona, north of Tawang. Pan-Asian rail links to Myanmar, Indo-China and Singapore are also proposed. This Chinese projection of national interest to revive, upgrade and promote Chinese influence, trade and commerce, stabilise unsettled areas as well as project its military muscle is neither unfair nor unwarranted.

 

Indian strategic thinkers are driven by the fear of Chinese encirclement of India by their "string of pearls" strategy and by the Sino-Pak collusion in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. These developments could, however, also be fallouts of Chinese economic expansion and the need to develop China equitably, but with a military subtext.

 

India in her national interest has also started looking towards East Asia. Implementation of Sardar Patel's advice has fitfully started, with accretion in military manpower, news of Agni missile sites being reconnoitered and activation and upgradation of airfields at Nyoma, Fukche and Daulat Beg Oldi, besides moving some top line aircraft to Tezpur.

 

Serious problems however remain unaddressed. Land acquisition, bureaucratic red tape, court cases, lack of cooperation at functional and policy making levels between departments, agencies, statutory bodies, state governments and ministries hold implementation hostage. Progress is also held up by sluggish environmental and forest clearances at the centre and state levels, railway clearances for rail over/under bridges, shifting of utilities - electricity and water pipelines, sewers, telecom cables and law and order problems.

 

Absence of a firm apex and functional leadership, the near total absence of modern processes, systems, and of performance and maintenance audit of BRO by local field Army commanders also seriously inhibits progress as the BRO is answerable only to its controlling Ministry of Surface Transport and the Ministry of Defence. Another issue is the multiplicity of other construction agencies answering to different ministries. The Government's Special Accelerated Road Development Programme in the North East (SARDP-NE) covering 9,740 kms is under the Ministry of Surface Transport and has 10 executing agencies. The Border Area Development Programme (BADP) under the Ministry of Home Affairs has five executing agencies. Thus, 15 agencies and 10 ministries are involved in border infrastructure leading to chaos and total lack of construction synergy.

 

The BRO, once the cynosure of all eyes, today has a huge backlog. Apart from its serious road construction slippages, BRO needs 20 years to complete the 36,000 meters of already accepted bridging work. Seriously understaffed and under-equipped, it functions in a technology/management time warp. Forced to resort to "casual labour" to cut costs, devoid of dedicated airlift (the IAF simply can't cope), with only a handful of its officers trained abroad in cutting-edge construction practices, this once world class organisation is not only in serious decline but is operating with its hands tied in archaic procedures and unimaginative financial norms. Mindless bureaucratic resistance to hiring retired Sappers (officers and men) and General Reserve Engineering Force personnel, and, pitiably, undertaking construction activities in Maharashtra and Chattisgarh that have nothing to do with border infrastructure, add to its woes.

 

What needs to be done is quite clear. An inter-ministerial Border Infrastructure Team (BIT) under the Prime Minister's Office must be urgently set up to implement the infrastructure road map with time bound and fast track sanctions. The Defence ministry should be nominated as the sole ministry dealing with the BRO's functioning, and accountability established through senior field formation commanders. Issues such as getting reputed national and international infrastructure agencies involved in construction, hiring of retired engineer personnel, training key BRO personnel abroad, dedicated airlift, induction of new technology, remote sensing, bringing in drinking water, education, health, power, telecommunications, commerce and connectivity must be part of the holistic vision that will drive the BIT's functioning and accountability.

 

The writer has served in Sikkim

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

MILITARY POSTURE IN THE NORTHEAST

 

The Chengdu Military Region of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has territorial jurisdiction across the Himalayas opposite India. Headquartered in Chengdu, It is a military administrative command located in southwest China covering Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and the Xizang/Tibet Autonomous Region. It comprises two Group Armies, the 13th and 14th (roughly equivalent to a corps), the Tibetan 52nd and 53d Mountain Brigades, the 149th Motorised Infantry Division at Emei, Sichuan, 2 Mobile Armed Police Divisions (38th and 41st), and the 2nd Army Aviation Regiment.

 

The assessed strength of the PLA in the region is 180,000 with four motorised Infantry divisions, one artillery division, two armoured brigades, one artillery brigade, and two anti-aircraft brigades.

 

The military districts that fall within the Chengdu Military Region are:

 

 Chongqing Garrison

 Sichuan Military District

 Xizang Military District

 

 

 

 Guizhou Military District

 Yunnan Military District

Other Chinese units in Chengdu are:

 MR Combined Armed Tactical Training Base

 MR Aviation Regiment

 MR Communications Regiment

 

 

 MR ECM Regment

 

 MR ACW Tech Dadui

 MR Special Reconnaissance Unit

 MR Special Operations Dadui

 U/I Survey and Cartography Dadui

 

Indian Deployment

The Army's Kolkata-based Eastern Command and the Indian Air Force's Shillong-based Eastern Air Command

 

are responsible for the defence of the northeast. The Army's Order of Battle (ORBAT) includes:

 

 III Corps (HQ Dimapur)

23 Inf Division (Ranchi)

57 Mtn Division (Leimakhong)

 IV Corps (HQ Tezpur)

2 Mtn Division (Dibrugarh)

5 Mtn Division (Bomdila)

21 Mtn Division (Rangia)

 XXXIII Corps (HQ Siliguri)

17 Mtn Division (Gangtok)

20 Mtn Division (Binnaguri)

27 Mtn Division (Kalimpong)

 

In addition to various independent brigades, two new divisions, 56 and 71, are under raising to cater to operational requirements in that region. Future plans include raising two more divisions and another corps.

 

 

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MUMBAI MIRROR

VIEW

THE JUDICIARY ON VACATION, AGAIN

ANY RATIONALE FOR EXTENDED COURT VACATIONS SEEMS INDEFENSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MOUNTING CASE ARREARS

In one respect, being a lawyer is very like being a schoolteacher, except that the pay is much better. You get vacations. The annual calendar is vitally important: the first thing we do is to look at the red-letter days: long weekends, a four-week vacation in summer, two weeks at Diwali, another two over Christmas and the New Year and every public holiday in between, plus weekends. All told, High Courts work for only 210 days in the year, the Supreme Court for about 180 (lower courts work longer). 

 

There was a time not very long ago when the summer vacation was about six weeks. It has been gradually reduced to the present level but each reduction draws bitter complaint. Court vacations are a legacy of British rule. In those times, there were at least some good reasons for long summer breaks. Judges and barristers sailed home to England and the route, via Aden, took time. 

 

Some lawyers used that break for remarkably adventurous activities. In 1889, the New York Times carried a wonderful story about John Duncan Inverarity, a renowned barrister practicing in Bombay, and his encounter with a lioness in Somalia. Inverarity – Bombay born and bred, of Scottish ancestry – was also a big game hunter. In Berbera, he shot a lioness but, to his misfortune, did not make a clean kill. In the ensuing fracas, he was twice badly mauled by the wounded lioness before his two Somali companions killed her. Undeterred by the cat's attempt to bring his practice to a premature close, Inverarity then photographed the kill, dressed his 16 wounds with carbolic acid, rode back to Berbera (managing "only" six hours a day) and sailed off to Aden where he was examined by a resident surgeon and found to be in good health. 

 

Now that we don't have to set sail for Blighty (luxury cruises don't count) and can't go off shooting wildlife, the rationale for these extended vacations seems indefensible, especially when you look at the mounting case arrears. In 2002, Arun Jaitley, then the Union Law Minister and himself a Senior Advocate of the Supreme Court, answered what was described as his easiest question in Parliament. He said it was not feasible or advisable to reduce these vacations because of the "taxing" nature of work. That was an odd thing to say and, since then, the calls for reducing court vacations have continued to grow. Retired judges, parliamentarians, bureaucrats and ministers all point to the mounting arrears: over three million cases in the High Courts and, as of 2002, about 20,000 in the Supreme Court. Add to this the more ignoble traditions of our system – charging additional fees for appearances in the vacation, and only taking cases that are really 'urgent' – and we have a real problem on our hands. 

 

Possessive as we are about our vacations (PILs against them have been filed and routinely dismissed), we lawyers are unable to come up with a single convincing reason why a vacation should be collective. It's insulting to every other profession to say that lawyers need breaks because they work so hard. Doctors work hard too, and so do engineers, architects, chartered accountants, film stars and dabbawalas. They all take time off. They just don't do it together. Imagine the entire medical fraternity going on holiday en masse. Some lawyers might be slightly inconvenienced, but only slightly: courts adjust, and perhaps we need a better system of stand-ins, like a doctor's locum. Besides, judges and lawyers frequently take off even when courts are in session (I was recently told that a matter would have to be adjourned because my opponent was going to America for two months). 

 

Judges are the ones who really need time off. Their work demands it. Our judges are possibly the most hardpressed in the world. After listening to lawyers for five hours, judges must collate and analyse arguments, sift through the record, read further, write judgements. This cannot be easy – it's probably like writing a thesis or a monograph on a daily basis – and it needs time for reflection. Judges do use their vacations and perhaps the leave to which they are entitled to complete their work. But surely all judges do not need to be on leave simultaneously. 

In America, courts close for a few public holidays and Christmas. For the rest, judges work on a rotating roster and schedule their work accordingly. 

 

There are, today, about 41,205 civil suits pending trial in the Bombay High Court, 3034 of which are prior to 1989. The earliest is of 1968. No lawsuit should take more than 12 to 18 months to trial. The case for vacations is nonexistent, and is simply wrong. Its backlog has now brought the judiciary to a tipping point. Unless we do something radical, we risk a crippling loss of faith in the judiciary.

 

There are about 41,205 civil suits pending trial in the Bombay High Court, 3,034 of which were filed before 1989

 

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******************************************************************************************BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

BEYOND A BEAR HUG

G2G RELATIONS STILL THE BALLAST FOR INDIA-RUSSIA TIES

 

It is a sign of the times that the visit of a head of state or government is increasingly viewed in terms of the billions of dollars of business it generates. So, not surprisingly, even reports on the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have focused on the $10-billion business generated by it. The number stands in contrast to the abysmally low bilateral trade of $5 billion. Understandably, much of the existing and new business is still between state entities in both countries, with a focus on defence and energy cooperation. Despite considerable diversification by India in sourcing defence supplies over the past decade, Russia remains the largest supplier of advanced weaponry to the Indian armed forces. Continuing delays in delivery of contracted defence equipment, sudden price escalations and unreliable supply of spares have begun to raise new questions about Russia as a defence equipment supplier. However, the still enduring nature of the strategic relationship between the two countries was underlined by two co-development agreements for the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Medium Lift Military Transport Aircraft being signed during the visit. Russia's technical assistance to the Indian nuclear submarine programme continues to be invaluable.

 

The Indo-Russian energy relationship is also evolving qualitatively on a wide range of fronts. However, while Russia has signed an agreement to supply two more reactors to augment the two being built at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu, movement forward on expanded civil nuclear energy cooperation remains stymied by ambiguities with respect to India's nuclear liability law. Russia has not yet made the mental transition to the post-nuclear liability Bill era, given the comfort it enjoyed within the special dispensation extended to it in the past. However, intense competition from France is perhaps exerting pressure on Russia to come to terms with India's new law. The issues of safety and reliability of Russian reactors vis-à-vis US and European Pressurised Water Reactors will now get closer examination than before. The questions raised by Russia on the implications of the civil nuclear liability Bill once again underline the fact that what came out of the wash in Parliament was a sub-optimal law that most nuclear power equipment suppliers are still not very comfortable with.

 

 India's footprint in oil and gas exploration in Russia is increasing and ONGC-Videsh Limited's decision to acquire a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-3 oil field is welcome. Indian power companies have made a beginning in acquiring coal mines in Siberia for high grade thermal coal. With the world's second-largest coal reserves, the opportunities in Russia are endless and must be vigorously pursued. India's export basket to Russia is dominated by primary products such as tea and rice, with pharmaceuticals and low-end machinery comprising the only value-added products. Russian exports to India are similarly low value-added and the absence of complementarities between the two economies precludes a dramatic surge in the bilateral trade numbers. Mr Medvedev quite understandably focused attention on people-to-people (P2P) contacts with his visits to Bollywood and IIT-Mumbai, since Russia lags behind the US in this area. Government-to-government (G2G) links remain the ballast for the bilateral relationship, given convergence of strategic interests in the Eurasian region and shared concerns about a rising China and Islamic radicalism. Increased business-to-business (B2B) links could help.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

THE AIRBUS SAGA

 

As the European airplane manufacturer Airbus completes 40 years, few will doubt that it will continue to have its regular share of controversy. But, equally, most will agree that this unique experiment in transnational cooperation is an indisputable success. This is important at the current juncture when the whole process of European construction, which had reached a high point with the creation of the common currency euro, is threatened as the future of the currency has become uncertain in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. When storms hit mankind as it journeys on the road of progress, it has to celebrate success so as not to lose heart and keep striving for a conflict-free better world — the postwar vision behind the creation of the European Union. When Airbus was first formed through an alliance of three European countries — Germany, France and the UK — few gave it much chance of survival, not to speak of success. With the indisputable superiority of US technology in the postwar world, when the former great powers of Europe were struggling to get back on their innovative feet, any notion that Airbus could one day beat Boeing would have invited ridicule. Yet that is exactly what has happened. Cumulatively, over the last decade (2001-10), Airbus has overtaken Boeing in the number of aircraft orders received. Even as many well-known airplane manufacturers have fallen by the wayside, Airbus has increasingly challenged Boeing's supremacy, so that in the marketplace for large commercial aircraft today, it is a straight fight between the two giants.

 

The main detractors of Airbus have been the Americans who have held that it has posed unfair competition because of its access to funding from partner governments. While Airbus has undoubtedly survived because of state subsidies, which the WTO has declared illegal, US defence orders have also provided a crucial prop to Boeing. What the past role of subsidies and the increasing market share of Airbus indicate is that making large commercial airplanes is a highly risky business requiring massive amounts of capital and the gestation period that a newcomer requires to be able to stand on its feet is elephantine. The demise of players in the past like McDonnell Douglas and exit of those like Lockheed from civilian aircraft-making show that it was a "sporty game" in which a company put itself on the line every time it made a major investment in developing a new aircraft, and it was the romance of flying that sustained aviation pioneers. Airbus captured the popular imagination when it scored a technological feat by introducing the "fly by wire" A320 which was the first civilian aircraft to be driven by information technology. The lesson from this for India as it gets ready to support semiconductor manufacturing "fabs" is that extended state support for a technology-intensive, high-ticket commercial venture can be justified so long as it is carefully focused and attuned to the marketplace. As for Europe, it must not lose heart in the process of holding hands and marching together by looking at the success of Airbus.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD?

INDIAN MARKETS WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO HOLD CURRENT PE MULTIPLES IN 2011

AKASH PRAKASH

 

As we close out the last few trading days of 2010, it is time to turn our attention to 2011. The year 2010 was a decent year for the markets with most broad indices up between 12 and 15 per cent, in line with the long-term trend rate of market appreciation.

 

I, however, have a sense that 2011 will be a lot more difficult, at least in the first half of the year.

 

 First of all, I believe that the Indian economy will slow in calendar 2011 and not accelerate further as many believe. A combination of the base effect and law of large numbers, the lagged impact of RBI tightening, regulatory cholesterol blocking project implementation, withering international competitiveness and a slowdown in decision-making across the government complex, will all combine to slow down the economy. Already the first signs of demand moderation are being seen and discussed. The talk of the Indian economy hitting a growth rate of 10 per cent is, to my mind, fanciful in the absence of some long-pending reforms. In reality, I don't believe the Indian economy, as structured today with our fiscal, governance and infrastructure deficits, can grow much beyond 8-8.5 per cent, without the wheels starting to fall off. We need reforms in governance, the fiscal, quality of government expenditure, skills building, project implementation etc to raise our trend rate of growth, but unfortunately there seems to be no visibility of movement on any of these fronts. There is also a non-trivial probability of a serious spike in the commodity complex, especially oil, which would force RBI to aggressively hike rates and further ingrain inflationary tendencies into our psyche. Already the inflation issue in India is threatening to become structural in nature, being very sticky on the way down. Further tightening of financial conditions will only cement the outlook for a slower growth trajectory in 2011 than the current consensus expectation.

 

Combined with a slower growth outlook, I think corporate profit margins will be under pressure in 2011. Higher commodity prices, rising cost of debt, surging wages and increased competitive intensity across sectors will combine to put margins under downward pressure. Historically, corporate India has protected itself from surging commodity prices, through high top line growth and the ability to leverage fixed costs through operating leverage. With a slower macro backdrop and huge cost push on fixed costs, this operating leverage dynamic is unlikely to play out in 2011. Thus, earnings growth, much beyond 15-18 per cent for the broad market in 2011 looks tough. Once again, stocks levered to consumption seem best positioned to deliver on earnings growth, with the investment cycle likely to continue to disappoint.

 

In terms of flows, I feel there is a real possibility that the developed markets, particularly the US, will outperform the EM markets for a period, especially the first half of 2011. Most economic commentators have revised upwards their growth outlook for the US, and many top-quality blue chips in the US trade at far more reasonable valuations than their EM counterparts. It is not inconceivable that some capital may flow back into the US. While there is still considerable debate about the sustainability of the US growth outlook, many investors will take a short-term view to play the expected growth acceleration in 2011, before re-assessing their longer-term outlook for the US. With global growth accelerating, EM flows into Asia will also be more North Asia-centric, and India's perceived domestic demand drivers less attractive from a relative perspective. I don't think portfolio flows will be negative, but are unlikely to hit $30-billion run rate again, especially in the first half of the year.

 

I also feel that our markets will find it difficult to hold current PE multiples. With interest rates rising, earnings and growth below current consensus, and flows not particularly strong, multiple compression is far more likely than expansion. All our recent scam-related adventures are also going to have an impact on PE multiples. We simply cannot have the highest multiples in the EM universe, with the type of governance and institutional corrosion displayed over the last few months. We are also as an economy far too leveraged to global financial conditions and risk appetite, when the going is good all is fine, but in a global shock we are very vulnerable. Being so pro-cyclical an economy also argues against elevated valuation multiples.

 

Thus, taking all of the above, the markets will probably still deliver positive returns, but multiple compression combined with slower earnings growth will force returns to be quite modest. I think in a low-return environment, stock-picking will again come to the fore as stock-specific performance will vary considerably, and all boats will not rise. Expect the current focus on high quality and high returns on capital business to continue.

 

What could change this outlook? First of all, the US economy could disappoint in 2011, longer-term structural issues drowning out any short-term stimulus-driven rebound. In such a situation, the EM carry trade will come back on, capital will flow out of US equities and India will be a major beneficiary, just like 2010.

 

If global growth disappoints, commodities may not spike and the extreme pressure on Indian earnings, macro and inflation will subside.

 

The government may also surprise us and actually push through some fundamental reform. The Budget will be a test case of this. As of now, no investor believes the government has any chance of meeting its outlined long-term fiscal and public debt targets. In the absence of GST, no movement on food/fuel/fertiliser subsidies and no signs of expenditure reform or targeting, the numbers do not add up. If the finance minister can deliver on some of these issues, that can be a trigger to re-rate markets. Another trigger could be some positive outcomes coming out of all the scam-related investigations. Judicial reform, greater accountability and measures to strengthen institutions are all steps which would enthuse the market and give investors greater confidence on the sustainability of our growth trajectory and thus allow PE multiples to expand.

 

I think there is too much complacency in India, we are told that 9 per cent growth will take care of everything from the fiscal (through tax buoyancy) to the current account (by attracting capital flows), to greater inclusion, but are we taking the steps needed to hit this 9 per cent number? What happens if we slip back to 7 per cent growth (still a good number)? How will the fiscal and current account be financed then? Our leverage to growth and international capital flows is sometimes underestimated in my view.

 

The year 2011 looks to be a year of consolidation, the economy, corporate houses and policymakers will all get some breathing space to build on the next phase of growth. It is not necessarily a bad thing to have a year of slightly slower growth to build capacity, optimise organisations and let infrastructure catch up to surging demand. To ensure that this is only the pause that refreshes and not a permanent slowdown, concrete action is needed by policymakers across a whole spectrum of policy issues. Hopefully, we will seize the initiative. The consequences of not doing so are dire indeed.

 

The author is the fund manager and CEO of Amansa Capital

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

ATTACKING DEMOCRACY TO 'SAVE' IT

WHILE WE REFLECT ON OUR FOLLIES AT YEAR-END AND SEEK TO CORRECT THEM, WE DO NOT NEED TO LOSE OUR HEADS OR BE INTIMIDATED BY EXAGGERATED FEARS

B G VERGHESE

 

The wasted session of Parliament just concluded should be reason for reflection over the negativism that has seized the polity like a malignant fever. This is surely a distressing ending to 2010, the 125th anniversary of the founding of the Indian National Congress that marks a great democratic tradition.

 

In aggregate, barely one day in 23 was spent by either House in transacting business. The rest was riotously obstructed by the BJP and Left calling for discussion and answers on the 2G and other matters but yet not permitting Parliament to function. In December 2001, a terrorist attack on Parliament House, the core symbol of India's democracy, was foiled. But did the security personnel protect the structural edifice merely to witness the disablement of Parliament as an institution?

 

 The persistent disruption of both Houses constitutes a pervasive and sinister attack on Parliament that cannot be condoned. That the government refused to accede to the Opposition demand for a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) to investigate the 2G episode offers little extenuation. The government, including the prime minister, could have been arraigned and compelled to offer credible answers or face obloquy. Further, the CAG report was due to be scrutinised by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) comprising members from both Houses and chaired by a senior Opposition leader. As events unfolded, these procedures were reinforced by a CBI probe monitored by the Supreme Court and an investigation by a former Supreme Court judge.

 

None of the four earlier JPCs was terribly effective. Hence that route offers little comfort, barring opportunity to prolong the controversy for electoral gain. The PAC is a vital limb of Parliament embodied in its rules, whereas the JPC is an ad hoc body that has occasionally been set up by Parliament. Having two parallel bodies examining the identical matter could have created contradictions and fresh controversies to the detriment of clarity and a clear finding. Unfortunately, the Opposition appears bent on continuing its disruptive tactics into the Budget session. Hopefully better counsels will prevail.

 

The government may be guilty of dereliction of duty and delay or of having succumbed to the pettiest pressure of self-serving coalition politics. If this is established, it will undoubtedly pay a political price, while those guilty of criminal misconduct will not go unpunished. But if due process is abandoned for lynch-mob justice, the consequences for the nation could be dire.

 

Emotions have unfortunately been whipped up by a media-led public opinion that has turned totally cynical with the breakdown of due process. Added to this is the open soliciting of bribery and corruption to grease an increasingly venal electoral system that runs on money and muscle power and crude vote bank politics. Robbing the people of India to win elections (only to disrupt legislatures at will) has become endemic. The media, perhaps the most powerful institution in India today, has also abandoned its mission, as trustee of the people's right to know, for commerce. Barring exceptions, competitive trivia and hype have dumbed sensibilities. The 2G transaction undoubtedly saw considerable leakage. But the Rs 1,760 lakh crore figure bandied about is largely notional and ignores the huge social benefit from low spectrum prices leading to falling call rates and an exponential growth of telephony which, on current reckoning, would account for part of the impugned "loss".

 

Why should the intensified CBI investigation, backdated to 2001, be considered a whitewash? Either one wants to get at the whole truth, even belatedly, or not. And how was the prime minister wrong to admit corporate and wider public nervousness about misuse of telephone taps officially ordered on security consideration or grounds of criminal investigation? Surely he was right to assert that privacy would be protected against possible access of telephone conversations "outsides the institutional framework of government", even while noting an "ethical deficit" on the part of corporate India. It is strange that Mr Advani faulted this statement as a red herring intended to obfuscate the corporate-official nexus revealed by the Radia tapes!

 

The government has now stated that the prime minister is prepared to appear before the PAC and, further, to hold a special session of Parliament to debate whether or not a JPC should be set up. This is a fair offer and not a climbdown from principle. The BJP has, however, launched a national campaign to press for a JPC on its terms and is calling for the resignation of the government if it fails to accept its stated terms of surrender. The BJP "campaign" will steer clear of Karnataka, an exception that tells a tale of double standards.

 

So, while we reflect on our follies at year-end and seek to correct them, we do not need to lose our heads or be intimidated by exaggerated fears.

 

www.bgverghese.com  

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

FIX A SPEED LIMIT ON HIRING

INDIA INC HAS BIG RECRUITMENT PLANS IN THE NEW YEAR, BUT THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

SHYAMAL MAJUMDAR

 

Just a week after she appeared for her third semester exam in a middle-rung business school in Kolkata, a former colleague's daughter received a job offer from a large consultancy, and an interview for a second is on the way. Just six months ago, she was taking about an uncertain future because about half of the 80-strong previous batch had firm job offers through the institute's placement cell.

 

So it's almost back to those good old days of 2007 when it became almost impossible for companies either to get quality workers and/or appropriately trained managers. So companies of all shapes and sizes were rushing to even relatively small professional institutes to recruit. That explains why the placement cells in colleges such as the National Institute of Technology (NIT) in Kurukshetra or Vellore Institute of Technology University are on cloud nine these days. NIT had 115 companies on campus for placement (against an average of 70 till last year) and Vellore Institute saw Cognizant pick up over 1,600 students this year.

 

The keenness to hire is, of course, not restricted to B-schools and engineering colleges; even small job fairs in rural India are attracting some of the biggest names in corporate India. Example: the first-ever job fair in Sonepat organised by TeamLease and Indian Institute of Job Training on Wednesday saw many companies holding career counselling sessions with over 10,000 jobseekers.

 

For a sure sign of a more vibrant job market, look at the sharp increase in help-wanted signs in store-fronts and the frenetic activity among headhunters. Both were absent even six months ago.

 

No wonder, then, that all HR studies on the jobs outlook are talking about a brisk to dynamic growth in employment opportunities in the New Year. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey says the net employment outlook is 42 per cent, 5 per cent more than the same period last year, making Indian employers the most optimistic as far as hiring intentions are concerned globally.

 

Another study by Ma Foi Randstad last week said led by healthcare, the organised sector in India has added 1.13 million jobs this year, making it the best in the last four years, ahead of the previous peak in 2006 when 1.03 million jobs were added. This is a significant growth over 2008 when only 670,000 jobs were added. The number last year was 900,000.

 

Sectors like hospitality, real estate and construction, IT & ITeS joined the 100,000-plus jobs pack in 2010. And among the cities surveyed, Delhi and NCR have reported greatest employment generation by creating 113,897 jobs in 2010.

 

Is it any surprise, then, that Indian employees are more prone to switch employers compared to others in the world at this point? A global work monitor study by Ma Foi earlier showed that amongst the 25 countries surveyed, India has the highest index of 141, meaning that the maximum employee churn across the globe will be here. India is followed by China and Mexico.

 

The mobility index is based on employees' responses to two questions about their intent to change jobs. The first question was about changing the current employer for a comparable job in the next six months. The second question was about changing the current employer for a different job or profession in the next six months.

 

Most HR consultancy firms say they are projecting a salary increase of 8 to 16 per cent in 2011 with sectors like telecom and pharma leading the pack. Global HR consulting firm Mercer says it has revised its forecasts for 2011 and has made an upward correction in the salary hikes expected due to the positive sentiment running across industries at large.

 

Examples such as these should bring cheer to a workforce that has had a tough time recently. But while it is certainly true that the days of gloomy messages of pay cuts and pink slips are over, here is a word of caution for employers. Many HR consultants say some Indian companies should fix a speed limit so that they don't get caught in those days of an imbalance in hiring by not following quality hiring norms.

 

Consultants say companies need to be more focused on the difference between performers and non-performers, and spend more time on the screening process. In the last boom, companies started tolerating even marginal contributors; that shouldn't happen.

 

Also, institutional shareholder activism in India, though muted so far, could rise if salaries to top executives are out of tune with their contribution This is a common practice abroad: HSBC, for example, faced vocal opposition from shareholders to its remuneration scheme, which saw executive directors receive bonus awards that ranged from more than double to almost four times their base salary.

 

Though the 20 per cent of shareholders who abstained or voted against was not enough to prevent the compensation scheme being passed, there are signs that shareholders will no longer give boards an easy ride.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

2011 - A speculative peep

Some predictions for 2011

Shankar Acharya

 

What might 2011 hold for us? Given the intrinsic uncertainty about the future, the really honest answer would be: I don't know. But that would be far too boring a response and, perhaps more to the point, would not fill a column. So, at the risk of looking foolish in a year's time, here are some predictions (in bullet form) for 2011.

 

 World: Economic/Financial

 

After a surprisingly strong recovery in 2010, next year will also be pretty good, with world output growing by 3.5 per cent (at market exchange rates).

 

The biggest (by far) industrial country, America, will turn in a remarkably strong performance with growth around 3 to 3.5 per cent, thanks to the continuation of extremely lax monetary policy and the recent agreement on tax cut measures, which are estimated to amount to a stimulus of around 2 per cent of GDP in the coming year.

 

In contrast, Europe, and especially the eurozone, will continue to be plagued by threats of sovereign default by one or more of the "PIGS in the periphery". Even if that spectre is kept at bay through huge bailout packages from the European Financial Stability Facility and the IMF (which now seems to lend its globally garnered resources mainly to Europe!), fiscal austerity programmes will keep growth very subdued throughout Europe, except for Germany. Overall, Europe might grow at 1.5 per cent.

 

For somewhat different reasons, that is also the expected growth in Japan.

 

The big impetus to global growth will come, once again, from Emerging Asia, with China growing at 10 per cent, India at 8 and Indonesia at 7. Together, Emerging Asia will account for half of world economic growth.

 

World trade volume will expand by 8 to 10 per cent and guess who (yes, China) will increase its share of global trade.

 

Exchange rates will be volatile, especially if there are any major disruptions in Europe. Despite enormous strains, the euro is likely to survive but it's not a sure bet.

 

Although there will be plenty of liquidity from loose monetary policies, the yields on long government bonds will rise as major industrial nations strive to fund their large fiscal deficits in the context of reviving private sectors.

 

Inflation in rich nations will remain low, but will increase in most of the emerging world because of rising commodity prices and buoyant capital inflows in search of yields.

 

]Strong global growth and speculative factors are likely to keep oil prices high, in the range of $80-110 per barrel.

 

India: Economic/Financial

 

Despite the prevailing despondency about deep-seated corruption and weak governance, the economy will probably grow at 8 per cent.

 

Because of the fast-growing labour force, the unemployment/underemployment situation for the unskilled will worsen, but we won't know for lack of data!

 

The combined (Centre and states) fiscal deficit is likely to remain high (at around 8 per cent of GDP), despite government commitments on fiscal consolidation.

 

Such high borrowing requirements will inevitably keep the benchmark 10-year government bond at or above the current 8 per cent, especially given likely further increases in the short-term policy rates.

 

While the headline inflation rate might drop to 6 per cent or so in the spring, average inflation for the year (y-o-y) is likely to remain above 6 per cent, mainly because of price increases in food and fuel.

 

High interest rates and subdued "animal spirits" (because of the scams and confusion in political responses) could cause some decline in India's high (35 per cent of GDP) investment rate, with growth-reducing consequences for the future. With luck, the decline will be small.

 

The current account deficit in the balance of payments will remain high at 3-4 per cent of GDP and could go higher if oil prices climb above $100/barrel. That will damp capital inflows and contain the appreciation of the rupee, even if RBI continues to refrain from long overdue corrective actions. India's financial vulnerability to external shocks will increase. In their absence, the INR/USD rate will range between 43 and 46.

 

World: Political/Security

 

America, still the world's single superpower, will withdraw nearly all forces from Iraq and begin a token withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer, despite limited military progress against the Taliban. As American forces withdraw, Taliban will feel stronger but there will be no decisive endgame in 2011.

 

China will continue its new "assertive" foreign policy, with occasional unpleasant surprises for some neighbours (including us).

 

North Korea will remain unpredictable and difficult, but a reignition of the Korean war will be avoided.

 

The chances of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities will rise higher than ever before, but may not happen. If it does, there will be a massive spike in oil prices and a great deal of unpleasant, unintended consequences.

 

Terrorism will continue to be endemic in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan and so will the possibility of serious attacks in India, Europe and America.

 

There will be no Israeli-Palestinian accord.

 

Japan will have a new prime minister but the country's reliance on America and redeployment of defensive forces to face China will continue.

 

There will be no comprehensive, international treaty binding national carbon emissions to mitigate climate change.

 

India: Political/Security

 

Dr Manmohan Singh will continue as prime minister, health permitting. His ministerial colleagues will also continue to be fractious and unmindful of disciplines of collective responsibility.

 

Corruption scandals and scams will continue to unfold but there will be some significant corrective actions, such as initiation of legislation for state funding of elections.

 

In West Bengal, the CPM will lose its control over the state government after more than 30 years. In Tamil Nadu, DMK will lose power.

 

Terrorist attacks will be carried out by both internal and external forces. If there is a major attack with clear links to Pakistan, government will feel compelled to take retaliatory action.

 

There will be a "Telangana Crisis" once the Justice Srikrishna report and the central government's response become public.

 

India will strengthen ties with her eastern neighbours, including Myanmar and the rest of Southeast Asia.

 

Sino-Indian trade will grow but China will maintain political pressure on the border and other issues. A significant military incursion in the Tawang area is quite possible. Rapid economic growth and adequate defence preparedness will remain the best antidotes to such pressures.

 

In other words, 2011 will be another interesting year. May it be happy and healthy for you all, dear readers!

 

The author is honorary professor at ICRIER and former chief economic adviser to the Government of India. The views expressed are personal

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

A DEFICIT OF SKILLS

CREATE A MARKET FOR SKILL DEVELOPMENT

IT IS increasingly clear that India's promised demographic dividend would be a chimera if the workforce lacks the skills needed by a globalising economy. The government has launched an ambitious skill development programme, which requires official departments, industry bodies, educational institutions and others to work together. This needs to incorporate a vibrant market for skill development. A recent skills dialogue focusing on the business process outsourcing sector threw up some insights. For instance, as outsourcing becomes more varied and more sophisticated, the range of skills the sector needs keeps expanding, from pure voice and language skills to high-end analytics. The outsourcing sector will compete with the fast-growing sectors of the Indian economy for a common pool of skills, increasing costs by way of wages, attrition, training, etc, for every employer. Individual units would prefer to hire trained employees, even if they come at a premium, because the time and effort spent on training raw recruits go waste when employees leave in search of greener pastures. The only way out is to greatly expand the pool of trained talent. The question is, how? 

 

It is possible to break down the skills into various permeable verticals: voice and language, finance and accounting, engineering, etc. While great scope exists for improving the teaching of English as a foreign language in the school curriculum, it should be possible to offer training outside the formal education system as well. This calls for standards-setting and certifying bodies for different skill sets, which organise skills in scalable modules that are clearly defined. If, for example, all the skills that are required of a chartered or cost accountant are organised into, say, 10 ascending modules, each of which lends itself to certification by a recognised body, private enterprise can compete to train young people to qualify for each level of certification. A certain set of jobs would be open up after each level of certification. A continuous hierarchy of skill levels is superior to a disjunction between vocational and professional qualifications, from the perspective of social mobility and inclusion.

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

WELCOME DISCLOSURE

DISCLOSE QUASI-FISCAL BORROWINGS, TOO

THE Centre's plan to disclose yearly payments to private developers of infrastructure projects in the Budget is welcome. The disclosure on annuity payments — money that the government agrees to pay infrastructure developers to substitute or supplement deficient revenues in the form of user charges during the concession period — will cut the scope for window-dressing of accounts. It will also help public scrutiny of public-private partnership projects. The country needs viable PPP projects and the government's promise to pay annuity is often the only way to make some projects bankable. However, big projects, especially in roads, carry the risk of time and cost over-runs. The risk has to be fully borne by a developer in an annuity model and any delay in commissioning results in a pro-rata reduction in the annuity payment. Annuities are committed but deferred payments, unlike contingent liabilities that may or may not occur. Disclosures on annuities will help the government keep track of future commitments. The law on fiscal responsibility and budget management has rightly prescribed a cap on contingent liabilities in the form of guarantees on loans from multilateral agencies, bond issues and other loans raised by public sector undertakings/financial institutions. Disclosures on contingent and committed fiscal liabilities are, therefore, in order. 

 

The government has already stopped the practice of not showing oil bonds, fertiliser bonds, etc in the Budget. What additionally need to be brought in the public domain are quasi-fiscal borrowings. These are borrowing that are contracted not by the government directly but by other state agencies to discharge functions delegated by the government. The borrowings by the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) to fund the under-recoveries in petro fuels, is an example of a loan that has been necessitated by public policy, in the present case, of keeping fuel prices restrained. The borrowings by the Food Corporation of India are another off-Budget item that has to be brought within the ambit of fiscal disclosure. The Centre should start listing all quasi-fiscal liabilities from the coming Budget. The claim on private savings to fund public expenditure is the real target of fiscal discipline, not technical targets.

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

MANESTREAM POLITICS

TRIM AND CLEAN-UP NEEDED

COVER-ups are obviously a sensitive political issue in India these days. Indian politicians usually don't turn a hair when faced with brush-tachar charges, but since any hint of black deeds, grey areas or even whitewashing are being gone through with a fine-tooth comb, they have no chance of effecting a hair today-gone tomorrow kind of evasion. Good thing that David Cameron and Ed Miliband only answer to the House of Commons and the British people, otherwise their recent shenanigans — the Prime Minister's bald backbrushing and the leader of the Opposition's dyed-out white streak — may have got them into a serious tangle had they been here. In the event, even with most Britons facing a new year of cuts, these gentlemen were lucky enough to escape with only minor snipes. Other European politicians, of course, have dealt with bad hair days differently, from Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi brazening out allegations of serious fraud to former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder suing for defamation when rumours about his darkened hair did not dye down. In fact, the widening of grey areas in high office clearly need to be examined more closely. Former British PM Tony Blair, not to mention former US presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush, have much to answer for on that count; even the US incumbent is now showing a definite peripheral canescence. 

 

In the current atmosphere in India, politicians brushing aside the mane issue are getting scalped by an irate media and public, but an era of fuzzy logic is still a long way off. Unrestrained, unmonitored (out)growth has weakened the roots, leading to a precipitate shedding of moral fibre, laying bare a corrupt capitulum. Rather than splitting hairs about culpability, a sustained clean-up campaign is needed to bring some measure of pilous propriety.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

WHAT 2011 MIGHT HOLD

GIVEN THE NUMEROUS EVENT RISKS OUT THERE, INDIA INC MUST AVOID MAKING LARGE OVERSEAS ACQUISITIONS UNTIL THE FOG OF UNCERTAINTY CLEARS, AND NOT LEVERAGE BALANCE SHEETS WITH LARGE QUANTITIES OF DEBT, SAYS SUMANT SINHA

THE year 2010 has been a strange one in many ways — a year that flattered to deceive and that belied the expectations and optimism with which it had started. The report card is straightforward. The political stock of the UPA fell suddenly after the second half of the year with one scam after another and the results of the Bihar elections. The Opposition, on the back foot for much of the year, suddenly found its voice with its performance in Bihar and its combined demand for a JPC probe into the 2G scam. 

 

The stock market has done little being up by 12% for the year at the time of writing this, despite record inflows of FII money — more than $25 billion. And this, after doubling last year. In sports, the CWG was both a fiasco and a success, while in the Asian Games we got only one seventh of the medals won by the Chinese — but which were yet declared a success for us — "record medals in the Asian Games, surpassing Doha and Delhi" — despite there being 20% more medals on offer. The media and the Supreme Court moved into front row in terms of protecting civil society from the depradations of the ruling class and becoming our moral champions. We had a telecom success in auctioning 3G spectrum and raising . 70,000 crore, but that only highlighted the losses of 2G which is anywhere between . 70,000 crore and . 1,70,000 crore. The selling of stakes in state companies such as Coal India went on successfully, but sales of other state-owned assets such as land and mining assets continued amidst patronage and cronyism. 

 

The economy grew at more than 8%, but inflation kept pace. The monsoon rains were robust and agricultural growth will be higher, at 4% this year. Interest rates, however, continue to rise, aided by foreign inflows. Globally as well, risks continued to ebb and flow based on the latest eurozone fortunes. The US also had its share of problems with President Barack Obama's popularity waning, the Congress changing hands to Republican leadership, thus setting the stage for even tougher policymaking. Meanwhile, China is now the second largest economy in the world, but there is a large amount of government stimulus spending going on that has been creating excess capacities. Central banks in the developed world continues to pump liquidity into their economies with buybacks and phenomenally low interest rates. This should weaken their currencies, but their biggest trading partner, China, continues to cling limpet-like to the US dollar, thus pretty much frustrating a large part of the US strategy. Yet, the dollar strengthens on the back of risk aversion, making the task of the US policymakers that much harder. 

 

On the geopolitical front, the war in Afghanistan continues, Osama continues to evade Obama, while Pakistan continues to propagate terrorists. Whether this is a state strategy or that of certain elements in Pakistan is not clear — after all, which clear thinking state would want to create a weapon which as often as not also targets its home soil as well? North and South Korea keep rattling their sabres, while nuclear weapons apparently continue to proliferate into newer countries. 

 

Into this already seething mix, we had the release of the Wikileaks tapes and closer home, the Radia tapes. The US administration was put into the embarrassing position of having to explain the exposed inner most workings of US diplomacy. However, for the domestic observer, the Radia tapes were much more fun, shall we say? Journalists, corporate chieftains, lobbyists, ministers — were all exposed saying things they never would have in public even if they were true. The taped conversations exposed the seamier side of the nexus between business and politics, lobbyists and journalists and have raised a series of ethical questions. 

 

WHAT does the outlook for next year look like? Macro uncertainty continues, notwithstanding growth of 8%. It is masking poor macroeconomic management with inflation continuing to stay unabated into next year and thereby, interest rates as well. Consumption-driven sectors will continue to drive the economy while investment-driven ones might start to see a slowing as corporates and overseas investors react both to the more volatile investment environment and the lack of new sectoral reform. But one cannot predict yet how the current political situation will resolve itself. It could either lead to a cathartic cleansing of the system from top to bottom that will cause significant short-term anxiety, but which will be healthier for the country and much better in the longer term. On the other hand, given the involvement of so many in the system, it might be ring-fenced around a few individuals and thereby contained. However, there is the outside probability of significant political volatility and it is impossible to predict which way things will shape up. Early elections cannot be ruled out at this stage. All this will not create a conducive investing environment. 

 

In the US, President Obama is significantly weakened by the loss of his legislative majority and issues around the US housing market and structural budget deficits. These could lead to a sustained US campaign to cheapen its currency. Risks of a double-dip have not yet waned. In Europe, the UK is taking its bitter medicine by slashing government spending, but Spain is where the worry is, with unemployment at 20% and much less room to maneuver politically. The Spanish economy is the fifth largest in Europe and its problems could have disastrous consequences for the future of the euro. There is a distinct possibility slowdown in China's growth next year on the back of higher inflation and higher interest rates. 

 

All this could lead to a global risk aversion and counter-intuitively, a flight to the dollar in the short term, and the withdrawal of FII flows from India. But if none of these negative scenarios play out, then markets could gradually find their confidence and after consolidating at current levels could make a break for higher ground. But given the numerous event risks out there, and the various uncertainties still prevalent, it would be a good time to be cautious. For Indian corporates this would imply avoiding making large acquisitions until the fog clears, and certainly not leveraging their balance sheets with large quantities of debt. This is a time to be cautious, to wait and watch. The year 2011 will definitely hold surprises. 

 

(The author runs SaVant Advisors, a     financial advisory firm)

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

FAC E - O F F

SHOULD RAJYA SABHA BE ABOLISHED?

SUDHA PAI 

 

Professor, Centre for Political Studies, JNU 

 

Reform, not abolition, is the solution 

THE recent remark by Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan, that the Rajya Sabha has become irrelevant and should be abolished, underlines the urgent need to reform this institution. Bicameralism has been an integral part of legislative institutions in democracies in the modern world. 

 

Our Constitution-makers decided to establish a second chamber not merely because it existed under British colonialism since 1921. Rather, the need for a bicameral system was debated at length and reasons proffered. Members felt that in a large country with many regions, which had adopted a federal system of governance, a single House, even though directly elected, could not adequately represent all shades of opinion. The Rajya Sabha, with a smaller membership, higher age-level, indirect election, with some nominated eminent individuals, was to be a House of Elders providing a tempering effect on the lower House. Today, in a vastly changed context, the House is facing a barrage of criticism. In an era of unstable central coalitions, political parties spend huge sums of money and indulge in horse-trading to ensure election of their members/supporters; with residency requirements removed, state's interests are not represented; most nominated members are politicians — some defeated in elections to the Lok Sabha — or industrialists whom a party wishes to reward. 

 

The real problem is that the Rajya Sabha lacks a clear-cut identity and relevant role in the present political scenario. Two institutional reforms could help: its powers should be made equal to that of the Lok Sabha; and provisions made for direct election from large state constituencies, making it representative of state interests — the move towards smaller states providing more democratic seat allocation. The former would strengthen its position within Parliament, requiring its consent in areas such as finance, constitutional appointments and foreign affairs. The latter would give it an important role within our federal structure as the states have become important players in a post-Congress and post-globalisation period.

 

G V L Narasimha Rao 

Media Adviser To CM, Madhya Pradesh 

To protect its dignity, curb distortions     THE origin of 'council of states' or Rajya Sabha can be traced to the Montague-Chelmsford Report of 1918 and the Government of India Act, 1919, that provided for its creation as a second chamber of the then legislature. An independent second chamber was thought necessary by the Constituent Assembly to meet the challenges before free India at the time. Our Constitution, as elsewhere in the world, has given an upper hand to the House of people, the Lok Sabha, in key respects. A government can beformed at the Centre and remain in office only if it enjoys majority support in the Lok Sabha. Similarly, in financial matters, the Lok Sabha clearly has an upper hand. 

 

Yet, the framers of our Constitution placed the Rajya Sabha on an equal footing with regard to amending the Constitution. A constitution amendment Bill has to be passed by the specified majority by both Houses separately and there is no provision for convening a joint sitting for this matter. The Rajya Sabha also enjoys special powers to empower Parliament to make laws on matters enumerated in the State List for the whole or any part of the territory of India. The Rajya Sabha was placed on an equal footing on legislation involving constitutional amendments (though it has less than half the strength of the Lok Sabha) and was given special powers to make laws in exceptional cases on matters that fall in the domain of the state legislatures. Though the eligibility criteria for becoming a member of the Rajya Sabha do not specify any such conditions, the special constitutional status of the Rajya Sabha is on the conviction that it would have members who are elderly intellectuals and thus can play a very important role in key legislation. 

 

With money bags and industrialists hankering for membership in the Rajya Sabha, and adopting questionable means to get elected — even though their numbers may be small — questions are bound to be raised about their real motives. It is this distortion that needs to be curbed to maintain the dignity of the Rajya Sabha. 

 

(Views are personal)

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

GU EST COLU M N

IS DTC BILL 2010 ANTI-DEVELOPMENT?

K S MEHTA 

 

THE Direct Taxes Code Bill 2009 was a modern piece of legislation based on faith in the assessee, which reduced both sops and tax rates, but had controversial features in taxing savings and minimum alternate tax (MAT). The revised DTC Bill, 2010 is nothing but a tax officer's delight, which will breed harassment and corruption. It keeps the present high tax rates, takes away incentives to infrastructure in real terms and gives sweeping powers to the tax authorities to overturn any transaction, including even tax promoted concepts of mergers and demergers. Such wide powers negate a regime of transparent regulations and reduce India's competitiveness for global investments. 

 

Regional underdevelopment has created disturbed areas, especially in central India where the government has appealed for job creation through private investment. But for this, we need fiscal stimulators to be built into DTC, 2010. Uttarakhand industries were created due to incentives and can be repeated in such areas creating employment generation. 

 

Such incentives do create economic distortions, but these are temporary and they generate long-term employment, inclusive prosperity and social justice. Bhilai and Rourkela steel plants have demonstrated that mega plants are not enough for regional development. Downstream investments are stimulated only by the right fiscal environment and infrastructure for assembly-type mother manufacturing units and their ancillaries. These generate far higher employment to capital investment ratio directly and indirectly. 

 

The DTC Bill, 2010 hits at the root of India's competitiveness. Low infrastructure costs are essential to drive India's competitive edge. Direct taxes enter product prices; and the DTC Bill, 2010 will substantially increase tax and thus enhance infrastructure supply costs as the tax holiday for infrastructure, power, oil & gas and similar industries is proposed to be converted from profit-linked incentive to investment-linked incentive. 

 

Presently (a) depreciation (initial and normal) has to be compulsorily claimed; (b) assessed annual profit (after depreciation) is taxfree for specified periods from seven to 10 years but MAT is payable; (c) the tax authorities look at transfer pricing of inputs and outputs so as to assess fair profits. 

 

The Bill, 2010 provides that (a) the capital expenditure (other than on land, goodwill or interest) on the eligible project would be treated as deductible expenditure in the first year; (b) no depreciation or any capital expenditure related allowance would be allowed; (c) no time limit is provided for setting off this depreciation; (d) MAT at 20% will be payable with 15 years' set-off period; and (e) but to get tax holiday, there should be no inter connection or interlinking with a non-priority unit. 

 

The above effect is clear when we analyse the proposed Schedule XIII Rule 6 (which provides for capex writeoff). It says: "The profits shall be presumed to have been computed after giving effect to every loss, allowance or deduction referred to in Sec 35 to 40. i.e., normal depreciation and initial depreciation." 

 

The depreciation in respect of any business capital asset notwithstanding any other provision of this code, shall not be allowed if: "The expenditure incurred for acquiring the asset has been allowed as a deduction under any provision of this code." This clause 38 (4) (b) is thus a sweeping one overriding any provision of the code which includes Schedule XIII; and Schedule XIII Rule 6 only prescribes for hypothetical deduction and not an actual deduction. The net impact is that if you get accelerated writeoff for capital expenditure; but then cannot claim normal and initial depreciation. Effectively, the incentive has come down from depreciation plus tax holiday to only 100% accelerated depreciation in a regulated price regime where output prices are linked to normal depreciation. The incentive is thus a chimera. 

 

There are further hurdles to cross. The code gives highly discretionary powers to the tax official to determine whether any business is separately assessable for a tax holiday. Sec 31 states, "A business shall be distinct and separate from another business if there is no interlacing or interdependence between the businesses." A steel plant generates waste heat and coal waste which run a power plant; it can not operate without such supplies. Will such projects fail to get tax holiday on this test of interdependence? Power is energy produced in any manner. 

 

It may be better to continue the old system of depreciation plus reduce tax holiday for a floating eight-year block period in 12 years instead of 10 out of 15 years and the latter being capped at full capital cost, including for land. This will spur efficiency in operation and control capital cost abuse which always reduces profits and maintain attractiveness for global investments. 

 

As taxes do enter product prices, the transfer pricing of output will also be lower (due to regulators) and increase competitiveness of the economy. It will also generate a level-playing field between new and old players and stimulate operational efficiency. Test of interdependence and interlacing should be done away with. Let tax policy march in sync with the nation's needs. 

 

(The author is managing partner,     SS Kothari Mehta & Co)

 

The DTC Bill, 2010 will substantially increase the tax burden and thus enhance infrastructure supply costs 
The Bill gives discretionary powers to tax officials to determine whether a business is separately assessable for a tax holiday 

 

It is better to continue the old system of depreciation and truncate the tax holiday than to overhaul the system a la DTC

 

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                                                                                                               DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

FARMER CRISIS TESTS GOVERNMENT

 

With Telugu Desam chief, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu, going on an indefinite hunger fast to press the case of the suffering farmers of Andhra Pradesh, and the same instrument of politics being deployed for the limited period of 48 hours by the former Kadapa MP, Mr Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is due to launch his own party after revolting against the Congress, the government of the newly ordained, Mr N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, faces its first serious test since it took office recently. The Congress Chief Minister — seen by some as a neophyte in the area of nuts and bolts politics — needs a strong hand of support from the Centre to help the farmers in distress, and to surmount the challenge thrown at him by his opponents. He is likely to be in the midst of another crisis in the next week or so when the Srikrishna Committee on Telangana comes out with its report. If the Chief Minister's hand is strengthened by the Centre, he will be in a better position to deal with the fallout of the Srikrishna report. If not, prolonged political uncertainty in the state could be on the cards. This is not good for anybody. Not only will it impact negatively on the fortunes of the Congress in the only state in South India where it did not need an ally, instability would sap the administration and hurt the people. Some may be tempted to work toward the option of an unduly early Assembly election, but that is hardly the way things should go. Farmers were hit hard by nature's fury as many as five times this year. Crop on 25 lakh acres of land has been lost on account of heavy rains and cyclones. The plight of our food-growers is self-evident. Playing politics with people's misery speaks of opportunism, not necessarily of concern for the suffering. In the case of Mr Naidu, it will be recalled that he has not pitched in for farmers in his 30 years in public life, leave alone go on a long-duration hunger fast. He was better known during his term as chief minister for catering to the urban habitation and taking health care out of the reach of the poor. Being a mature and respected politician, he might have earned laurels if he had only so much as raised the cause of the needy farmers without bringing a threatening edge to his demand. It is to be hoped that he would heed wise counsel from all quarters and end his fast before his health deteriorates any further, for that can become a political issue too and further unsettle the administration. As for Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy, his short-duration protest fast is only a mobilising tool in a season in which he is doing all he can to build himself up politically. Reports suggest that he is registering a fair measure of progress, although it is not clear if playing politics with people's lives always yields political dividends. Given the state of affairs, much is up to the good sense of the Centre. The Manmohan Singh government has been unduly slow-footed in responding to a sliding situation. The announcement of `400 crore aid from the Centre to give succour to the state's farmers appears to be a response to the protest actions by the opponents of the Congress. It should have come suo motu. Often, the essence of politics lies in the timing and the show of initiative, whether a specific demand has been made or not.

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

A CHINDIA WORLD

BY SHASHI THAROOR

 

The visit of Premier Wen Jiabao to New Delhi last week has rightly received an inordinate amount of attention from the Indian press. There has been some celebration of the $23 billion in investment projects signed by the two countries during the visit, a sum that dwarfs the $14 billion signed by the US President Barack Obama when he was here.

 

There has also been some satisfaction at the way New Delhi stood up to Beijing's attempted bullying on Tibet, in particular India's refusal to repeat its usual ritualistic endorsement of China's views on Tibet and the "One China" policy — so long as Beijing remains unwilling to show similar sensitivity to India's views on Jammu and Kashmir.

 

So far, so good. Trade will clearly continue to grow; the Chinese will make special efforts to open up market access to Indian companies, who have long been chafing at the "non-tariff barriers" that impede their ability to penetrate the Great Wall; and there are very strong indications that Beijing will do away with the irritant of the stapled-visa policy for Indian citizens born in Jammu and Kashmir. (If we could only succeed in getting a Srinagar-based Indian general a visa to resume defence exchanges with the Chinese military, my satisfaction would be even greater.)

 

But the one area on which I have seen nothing — and I mean literally nothing, not so much as a smidgen of a comment — is the potential for future cooperation between India and China, not just between themselves (in their bilateral relations), but in the multilateral arena.

 

The opportunities for cooperation here are in fact great. There is, first of all, the regional plane. China and India have notably strengthened their cooperation in regional affairs. China has acquiesced in India's participation in the East Asia Summit and invited India to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an observer, just as India has supported China's becoming an observer at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc).

 

While Asia is devoid of meaningful security institutions, their interlocking economic and trade relationships with each other and with other Asian countries can, and in my view will, knit China and India closer together.

 

But multilateral cooperation need not be confined to the Asian region. China and India have broadly similar interests and approaches on a wide range of broader international questions, from most issues of international peace and security to the principles of world trade and the ways and means of coping with globalisation. They have already begun working together in multinational forums on such issues as climate change and environment protection, and have no real differences on matters like encouraging biodiversity, promoting dialogue among civilisations, promoting population control, combating transnational crime, controlling the spread of pandemic disease, and dealing with challenges from non-traditional threats to security.

 

All of these areas provide a realistic basis for further long-term cooperation.

 

One exception, alas, is the issue of combating international terrorism, where China's indulgence of Pakistani terrorist groups at the UN has been deplorable. There is little doubting that it is thanks to Beijing providing cover for Islamabad that the UN Sanctions Committee has not gone further towards proscribing the Jamaat ud Dawa and getting Hafiz Sayeed onto various international "wanted" lists.

 

We should perhaps have taken the opportunity of Mr Wen's visit to point out that this kind of behaviour is arguably not in Beijing's own long-term interests. After all, Uighur militants in Xinjiang, radicalised in Pakistan, have been known to set off explosive devices in China and seek refuge in the Islamic Republic, hardly a practice Beijing would like to see repeated too often. But for the moment, China attaches greater importance to the strategic relationship with Pakistan than to what is still the relatively minor threat of Pakistani-inspired terrorism on its own soil.

 

Of course, that can change, and China-India cooperation can also improve on the issues of piracy, oil spills and other international environmental issues, nuclear disarmament and arms races in outer space, human trafficking and natural disasters — all of which are issues on which the two countries could play mutually supportive roles, take joint responsibility and contribute to the establishment of new rules in the global system.

 

New areas of cooperation could also emerge — wildlife conservation, for instance, where both countries could co-operate on issues like the smuggling of tiger parts to Chinese customers, or disaster management, where Asia's two giants have much to learn from each other but have made no effort to do so.

 

Turning to the big-picture issues, it is true that in the global geopolitical arena there is one difference between us: we in India would prefer that the international institutions of peace and security, notably the UN Security Council, reflect the geopolitical realities of today rather than of 1945. Here we may not be on the same page as China, which has not shown much enthusiasm for a reform that would give us, and worse, Japan, a comparable status to Beijing's at the world's high table.

 

But in the international economic system, there is no difference between us: we both aim to pursue a long-term objective of broad parity between the developed countries and the developing and transition economies in the international financial institutions. After all, the recent global financial crisis showed that the surveillance of risk by international institutions and early warning mechanisms are needed for all countries. Both China and India agree that developing countries should have a voice in overseeing the global financial performance of all nations, rather than it simply being a case of the rich supervising the economic delinquency of the poor.

 

All this is not just to assert ourselves on the world stage. India's and China's broad strategic goals must remain the same, to enable their domestic transformation by accelerating our growth, preserving our strategic autonomy, protecting our people and responsibly helping shape the world. There is a great deal more we need to do to this end — and doing it partly on the world multilateral stage, rather than simply in our two foreign ministries, is something that the mandarins in both capitals could well spend more time thinking about, and working on with each other. India and China certainly won't ever be a new G2 at the UN, but our increased proximity on the Security Council could well give us a good opportunity to start being more than distant neighbours on our ever-shrinking planet.

 

* Shashi Tharoor is a member of Parliament from Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram constituency

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

REBUILD MIND, SPIRIT TO FIND EQUILIBRIUM

BY JEFFERY SACHS

 

The best idea of 2010 came from the Himalayan mountain kingdom of Bhutan. Standing before world leaders in the United Nations General Assembly in September, Prime Minister Jigmi Thinley asked the decisive economic question of our time: "As all our people rise above the threats of basic survival, what will our collective endeavour be as a progressive society?"

 

He proposed an answer. Let us, he said, make "the conscious pursuit of happiness" a new pillar of global cooperation, the "ninth Millennium Development Goal". Watching from the side of the hall, I was delighted as spontaneous cheers and applause rippled across the assembly for the first time in a long day of speeches.

 

The world, indeed, is long on worries and short on happiness. The problem, as Prime Minister Thinley incisively explained, is not really a shortage of material goods, even in a year of economic recession. The world is richer than ever before in history; that is certainly the case in the richest countries, even those in a cyclical downturn. Happiness, according to Bhutan's great tradition of Himalayan Buddhism, comes not from the raw pursuit of income but, in Mr Thinley's words, from "a judicious equilibrium between gains in material comfort and growth of the mind and spirit in a just and sustainable environment".

 

On that score, the world is far from equilibrium. As much as economists try to restore equilibrium to aggregate supply and demand, or to the relative values of national currencies, the imbalances in our societies are much deeper than the quirks of macroeconomic aggregates. The sense of imbalance is nowhere greater than in the United States. Goods are plentiful on average, but not so for the tens of millions of families in poverty or teetering precariously on the edge of poverty. America's income inequality is staggering. But it's not just America, of course. The world is the author of its excesses and growing imbalances. In its quest for superhuman economic growth, China has despoiled its air and rivers. Brazil and Indonesia have accepted an intolerable destruction of the world's remaining rainforests.

 

And despite annual meetings of the world's governments for 16 years since putting the UN climate-change treaty into effect in 1994, the world as a whole has found no agreement on a practical plan to head off the worst of human-induced climate change or to adapt effectively to the climate changes already under way.

 

The world has shown similar neglect in protecting its most vulnerable people. There is solace in the fact that 140 world leaders came to the United Nations in September to rededicate themselves to the Millennium Development Goals, the globally agreed-upon targets to fight poverty, hunger and disease. Despite war, upheaval and recession, the goals have kept a place in global politics and global awareness.

 

As we enter a new year and new decade, and the final five years to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by their target date, a new "judicious equilibrium" must be our goal. The past decade's desperate lunge for profits and military gain has brought us low. It's time to rebuild mind and spirit. The key is to think much more clearly about wants and needs, and thereby to rebalance our personal and political energies.

 

The first rebalancing should be between the rich and poor. The traditional gaps between the "developed" and "developing" worlds are closing, thanks to the remarkable growth of the emerging economies. The small club of the G8 countries has already given way to the larger G20, which includes China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies. It's urgent to widen the circle still further, so that today's poorest countries may gain a foothold on prosperity and participate fully in global leadership.

 

Within our own divided societies, we must of course do the same. America and other highly unequal societies need to rebalance a culture of super-wealth alongside degrading poverty. There is certainly no technical barrier to ensuring that every child, poor as well as rich, has a pathway to decent health, quality education and full participation in the economy. America's rich have wealth beyond their most extravagant needs. Rejoining the effort to end poverty would greatly boost their happiness, as well as others'.

 

The second rebalancing must be between the present and future. Our consumerist and media-driven economy fueled the mad pursuit of consumerism above all else over the past 20 years. In the lead-up to the financial crash, Americans and many others stopped saving, and instead snapped up the credit card loans and subprime mortgages on offer from irresponsible lenders. As we sift through the financial wreckage, let's resolve to stop shortchanging the future.

 

The third rebalancing must be between production and nature. Our GNP accounts routinely record every felled tree, overpumped aquifer and excessive catch of endangered marine life to be part of our national income, when in reality it is simply the depletion of nature's capital. We have reached the planetary boundaries of ecological survival. It's time to reach a new consciousness of our own destructive force, and to pull back before it's too late.

 

* Jeffrey Sachs drew notice in the 1980s and '90s as a proponent of "shock therapy" for sick economies. He is now director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

 

By arrangement with the New York Times

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

THE TRUE MEANING OF CHRISTMAS

BY GAIL COLLINS AND DAVID BROOKS

 

The New York Times' columnists Gail Collins and David Brooks talk about Christmas and where do you stand on the all-encompassing, retail-sales-enhancing holiday season?

 

Gail Collins: David, I know you're a big fan of community-building activities. How do you come down on Christmas? I don't mean the religious feast but the all-encompassing, retail-sales-enhancing holiday season. In which Americans of all stripes celebrate the winter solstice with family gatherings, exchanges of gifts and cards and the singing of really terrible seasonal songs.

Actually, the songs are the one part that I think cannot be pulled off without religiosity. That Mariah Carey thing, which is apparently the most popular holiday song in the nation, is worse than "A Holly Jolly Christmas".

 

David Brooks: I am so glad you asked me about Christmas. I am not a Jew for Jesus but I am definitely a Jew for Christmas. Christmas is one of the best things you Christians have given us, along with mac and cheese, Bono, croquet and politeness.

 

I'm sort of worried about the overshadowing of the terrible old Christmas songs (I dated a girl named Holly Jolly in high school), but my main worry about Christmas is this: the quality of the holiday deteriorates the further one gets from Manhattan. In the city, you've got trees for sale on the street. You've got the vendors selling hot chestnuts. You've got the Christmas windows, the Rockettes, that huge lighted star over Fifth Avenue and the big tree outside the Today studio. Christmas in Manhattan is great, but it gets diluted where I live now, out in mall-ville.

 

In fact, I think New York Jews should all volunteer to trade places with people in Milwaukee or some other Christian-heavy city for the month of December. This would allow more room for Christians to enjoy the holiday in the Big Apple. It would yield the greatest good for the greatest number.

 

Gail Collins: You're right — there's a Christmas tree vendor on my corner and I do love feeling as if I'm walking through a forest on my way home from the subway. A forest of entirely dead trees, but still kind of nifty.

 

But about Christmas. "The holiday season" has pretty much uncoupled from the feast of Christmas and I'm surprised religious conservatives don't find that to be a blessing. When I was a kid, living in a very Catholic part of the country, people worried about the commercialisation of Christmas. They were afraid the story of the Nativity was getting lost amid the purchasing of toys and small appliances. Secular Christmas songs were looked down upon. Singing Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer in my Catholic school was as unthinkable then as singing the First Noel in public schools is today.

 

Now, the march of the Santas has so completely run over the month of December that it should be easier for people to focus on the religious aspects of the 25th. Particularly since they're very likely to be having their actual present-exchange on some other day, when the relatives can all be assembled. I say that as a person who will be on a plane on December 25, flying to Ohio for a family Christmas that is actually scheduled for December 27.

 

]David Brooks: Wait a second, you're celebrating on the 27th? Are you trying to find a third-way triangulated compromise between Western Christianity and Eastern Orthodox? I find this a disturbing slide toward moral relativism. Do you celebrate the July 4th on the 8th? Or New Year's Eve in February? Once you start fooling with the calendar where does it stop? Moreover, you shouldn't be able to do your Christmas shopping on the 26th, when the sales start. It's bad for the economy.

 

I say celebrate Christmas for its importance in the Christian religion, but admit that the two-month-long public festivity during which it occurs is a multicultural holiday season.

 

]Gail Collins: If Christmas is for families, what do you do when there are families scattered all over the country? I am pretty sure God wants to make sure I touch all the bases, even if I spend his actual birthday with Delta Airlines.

 

David Brooks: As for the loss of the Christian integrity of the holiday. I am militant. There's a security guard at a building I visit a lot. He's Muslim and I'm Jewish. We both wish each other a Merry Christmas when we see each other. None of this vacuous Happy Holidays crap. We're taking a stand for religious substance.

 

This is where cultural conservatives split ways with economic conservatives. The latter are happy to see Christmas diluted so it can reduce psychological friction in the marketplace. People like me want to increase social friction, stickiness and commitments.

 

I'm for Nativity scenes, Passion plays and every explicit Jesus hymn you can think of. As it stands now, the holiday season is turning into a second helping of Halloween, with candy

 

Gail Collins: This is now a celebration that begins before the last leaves have fallen from the trees and ends with the final Christmas party, sometime in January. You can't have two months of nonstop public displays of religion. It sounds nice in theory but it'd drive half the country crazy in real life. And my own childhood has convinced me that the folks trying to excise the crass commercial side are always going to lose.

 

So I say celebrate Christmas for its importance in the Christian religion, but admit that the two-month-long public festivity during which it occurs is a multicultural holiday season. Including the tree. The idea of putting a "holiday tree" in the town square seems to drive conservatives particularly nuts. But everybody loves that tree, and since the pagans thought of it first, I don't think one group can claim a patent.

 

I am militant about keeping the Christian integrity of the holiday; none of this vacuous "Happy Holidays".

 

David Brooks: I hate to sound holier than the pope, but it's a Christmas tree. You Christians stole it from the pagans fair and square and there is no reason to give it back. That cultural appropriation was a great advance, adding depth and moral content to mere nature. Now we are devolving to vacuous barbarism.

 

A sign of this decline, by the way, is the number of Christians who feel free to go to the movies on Christmas Day. It used to be the cineplexes were like half-empty synagogues on Christmas. Now you can barely get a ticket. When Christians start eating Chinese for Christmas dinner, the end of civilisation will really be at hand.

 

Gail Collins: I get the last word, and it's: Merry Christmas, David.

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

RED ALERT FOR INDIA

BY ARUN KUMAR SINGH

 

In 2010, India had a string of VIP visitors from the "big five" countries. First to arrive was British Prime Minister David Cameron in July. Then followed US President Barack Obama's successful India visit in November 2010, though it was somewhat dampened by the WikiLeaks disclosures. Next was France President Nicolas Sarkozy who turned on the charm offensive with sufficient help from his glamorous wife.

 

This was followed by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India from December 15 to 17 and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's two-day trip beginning on December 21. The reason for these visits is the fact that a "rising" India is expected to play an increasingly important role in the two most "dangerous regions on earth", i.e. the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The latter, dominated by peninsular India, is crucial to global sea trade and energy flow since it connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

 

Significantly, the Chinese Premier's visit was uninspiring despite contracts worth $16 billion being signed and bilateral trade expected to cross $120 billion by 2014 (Mr Wen signed $35 billion worth of deals with Pakistan a few days later).

 

Given the border dispute and China's new assertiveness on its territorial claims in South Asia and the APR, where it is trying to "shape the geostrategic arena", can growing trade (with India's share at 33 per cent deficit) alone stabilise the region?

 

On November 21, 2010, China commenced work in Tibet on the first of the planned 28 dams on the river Brahmaputra for hydropower generation. Though China's latest move will further aggravate tensions, the era of "water wars" will really begin in a few years when China decides to divert Brahmaputra into its own territory (to irrigate its arid regions and replenish the water levels in the depleting Yellow river), thus converting India's Northeast into a desert.

 

In addition to neutralising Pakistan and China's designs in South Asia, India must oppose any Chinese attempts to convert the South China Sea (SCS) into China's territorial waters as then free flow of Indian and global sea-borne commerce from the IOR to the APR and vice-versa would be at China's mercy. Sixty per cent of India's sea-borne trade moves westwards, across the IOR to Europe and beyond, while 40 per cent moves eastward, to the APR and beyond. Given China's latest mischief of not recognising the 1,500 kms of its boundary with Kashmir as part of the disputed Sino-Indian border, India needs to declare a new policy stating that Tibet is not a part of China. Also, it needs to increase trade with Taiwan, from the present $5 million, annual level.

 

Mr Medvedev's visit served to consolidate Indo-Russian ties. There is no doubt that India needs to continue its traditional time-tested relations with Russia for meeting its vital defence needs (stealth fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines), civilian nuclear reactors and some crude oil from the Sakhalin oil fields. However, the United States with a global naval presence is also important to India, as it is the only military power capable of countering China.

 

On October 27, 2010, the US announced the construction of a $12 billion naval base on Guam Island, which along with the Pearl Harbour (Hawaii) forms the "third and last island chain" blocking China's cherished eastwards push across the Pacific Ocean. In anticipation of Chinese weaponisation of space by 2020, the US plans to launch a series of lethal robotic aerospace systems. By 2020, China aims to be capable of launching missile and cyberspace strikes on every part of the globe.

 

North Korea — China's proxy in APR — continues to raise tensions with the November 23, 2010, shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeondo Island and then threatening nuclear strikes, bringing Japan and South Korea closer to the US.

 

In my opinion, the incident like the March 26, 2010, sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan by a North Korean submarine, had the blessings of China. China provides North Korea 79 per cent of its foreign investments, 90 per cent of its crude oil, 84 per cent of its consumer goods and most of its military equipment.

 

This scenario is almost identical to China's other proxy, Pakistan, which hopes to use US aid worth billions of dollars to buy three dozen J10 fighter aircraft, four Yuan class conventional submarines (with Air Independent Propulsion System), four Type 054 Frigates and also possibly acquire a Han-class nuclear attack submarine on a 10-year lease from China at "friendship prices".

 

India should brace itself to counter a Cheonan-type incident at sea or a 26/11-type of attack. While South Korea has recently "remodeled" its future military response, Japan has recently decided to increase its submarine force from 16 to 22. The Indian Navy, which is now reduced to 14 aging conventional submarines, instead of 24 that are needed, should urgently emulate the Japanese example.

 

The China-Pak anti-India nexus will remain unchanged for decades while China will simultaneously head for a collision course against the US as it is a stumbling block to China's territorial claims in the APR.

 

The world, including India, relies on sea-borne trade and oil moving safely through the IOR to various global destinations. Hence, India and the US do have mutual interests.

 

For the safety of sea-borne commerce, India needs "friends" to counter Chinese moves in the APR, while the US, along with the global maritime community, needs "friends" to counter the piracy and maritime terror in the IOR.

 

Indeed, China's expected prolonged naval deployments in the IOR by about 2030 will further aggravate the situation.

 

To conclude, Indo-US relations (specially in the fields of maritime, aerospace, defence and cyber security) have a bright future but they can never be "strategic" like the present asymmetrical US-Britain or China-Pakistan ties because of America's fixation with its "geostrategic ally" Pakistan.

 

The only way for India to avoid an inevitable war with China is to deter China with a combination of conventional and nuclear weapons capability along with diplomacy and close cooperation with other maritime nations, including the US.

 

For a start, India needs to increase its annual defence budget by 50 per cent and ensure that the money is actually spent and not allowed to lapse.

 

* Vice-Admiral Arun Kumar Singh retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

SEEK PEACE THIS XMAS

BY DOMINIC EMMANUEL

 

Ever since Jesus was born 2,000 years ago, the story of his birth has been narrated over and over again, not just in words but also through poetry, paintings, songs, radio dramas, classical dance forms, small and big films and through many other art forms. The real narration of his birth though, as portrayed in the Gospel of St. Luke, is rather simple as: "In those days Caesar Augustus issued a decree that a census should be taken of the entire Roman world. (This was the first census that took place while Quirinius was the governor of Syria.) And everyone went to their own town to register.

 

So Joseph also went up from the town of Nazareth in Galilee to Judea, to Bethlehem the town of David, because he belonged to the house and line of David. He went there to register with Mary, who was pledged to be married to him and was expecting a child.

 

"While they were there, the time came for the baby to be born, and she gave birth to her firstborn, a son. She wrapped him in cloths and placed him in a manger, because there was no guest room available for them. And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night.

 

An angel of the Lord appeared to them, the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, 'Do not be afraid. I bring you good news that will cause great joy for all the people. Today, in the town of David a Saviour has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord. This will be a sign to you: You will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger'".

 

Suddenly a great company of the heavenly host appeared with the angel, praising God and saying, "Glory to God in the highest heaven, and on earth peace to people of good will". When the angels had left them and gone to the heaven, the shepherds said to one another, "Let's go to Bethlehem and see this thing has happened, which the Lord has told us about".

 

So they hurried off and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby, who was lying in the manger.

 

When they had seen him, they spread the word concerning what had been told to them about this child, and all those who heard it were amazed at what the shepherds said to them. But Mary treasured up all these things and pondered them in her heart. The shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things they had heard and seen, which were just as they had been told (Luke 2:1-20).

 

Though the message of Jesus' birth with a clear emphasis on peace was first given to the simple shepherds, probably illiterate and surely quite poor, prophecies about him had begun to emerge almost 800 years before his birth. According to Biblical exegetes, the Jewish scriptures, which now form part of the Bible, had already foretold about the birth of the Messiah and the way he would live and die. Prophet Isaiah in the Old Testament called him, "Prince of Peace", whose "Kingdom will always have peace".

 

According to him, "the wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, the leopard shall lie down with the young goat, the calf and the young lion and the fatling together; and a little child shall lead them. The cow and the bear shall graze; their young ones shall lie down together; and the lion shall eat straw like the ox. The nursing child shall play by the cobra's hole, and the weaned child shall put his hand in the viper's den (Isaiah 11:7-8)".

 

In His lifetime, Jesus constantly spoke about and worked for peace. Imparting one of his many gifts to his disciples, Jesus said to them: "Peace is what I leave with you; it is my own peace that I give you. I do not give it to you as the world does (John 14:27)". In a world so torn apart by different conflicts arising out of manipulation, exploitation, using people to climb up, cheating, corruption, murder, rape, violence, war, terrorist attacks; hunger and poverty, humanity appears sometimes to have lost the direction. It is still searching for peace that seems to be elusive.

 

The message of Christmas by the angel to the shepherds — "Peace on earth to people of goodwill" — is a call to everyone to become people of "goodwill" by cooperating with the "Prince of Peace" who would love to fill the hearts of all those who desperately seek inner and external peace.

 

— Father Dominic Emmanuel, a founder-member of Parliament of Religions, is currently the director of communication of the Delhi Catholic Church. He was awarded the National Communal Harmony Award 2008 by the Government of India. He can be contacted at frdominic@gmail.com [1]

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

FILES DISAPPEAR

WHY WAS A BASIC IGNORED?

NO surprise is the Central Bureau of Investigation's whine that it is running into difficulties when probing some elements of the CWG swindle because critical files are "missing". Did anyone expect potentially incriminating documents to be perfectly indexed and stored in a filing cabinet for the convenience of the detectives? The agency says it will investigate that disappearance too, but who will undertake an inquiry into why the tainted heads of the Organising Committee were permitted full run of the offices after a formal scrutiny into their shenanigans was ordered? Is it not a "basic" that a person under the scanner is immediately placed under suspension so that no material is tampered with? Indeed, arrests happen and applications for remand are made all over the country to ensure those accused of lesser crimes do not interfere with the investigation process; by not doing so, the government is already placing Suresh Kalmadi on a pedestal. The technicalities of the status of the OC, and whether the government's normal service conduct rules apply to its staff is of little relevance. As ridiculous as the Cabinet Secretary reportedly telling the CBI that the OC no longer functioned under him, the sports ministry should be approached for any "restraining order" on M/s Kalmadi, Bhanot, & Associates. Despite officially promising full cooperation, the remnants of the OC are deliberately thwarting inquiries, the investigators have complained. That would suggest that they still have clout and godfathers in high places. Probably the same unworthies who did not debar them from the OC offices the moment formal inquiries were directed. So was asking Kalmadi to step down from an inconsequential post in the Congress Parliamentary Party, and not inviting him to receptions at 7 RCR and 10 Janpath only to create a false impression of a crackdown? It may not be possible for the Prime Minister to prevent loot, surely he can ensure that the looters are left with no escape route. What the CBI has encountered could hold true of the inquiries being conducted by others, so all the promises of bringing the crooks to book ring hollow. And there isn't even a word about the corruption in the Delhi government headed by Sheila Dixit.

Another CWG-related issue requires resolution. International firms involved with the opening and closing ceremonies are yet to be paid full fees or permitted to repatriate the equipment used for the events. Is that "held up" because of the probes in hand? India's image as a country with which to "do business" is in a shambles.

 

TRAGEDY IN ANDHRA

WITH MORE DRAMA ON PLIGHT OF FARMERS

When he was chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu earned a reputation for remarkable growth in the urban sector to the extent he was described as the state's CEO. With what must be considered a dramatic transformation of his political identity, he has now taken up the cause of distressed farmers with the same degree of earnestness. The shift may have a clear political objective. But it is curious why the Centre allowed him this opportunity by taking more than three months to announce a Rs 400-crore relief package for farmers who are in serious trouble after their crops were destroyed by heavy rain. The tragedy of farmers' suicides has been witnessed in the state and has spread to other parts with such speed that it would seem the Centre has again been caught napping. Or, the UPA may have been so absorbed in the Jaganmohan Reddy drama that it failed to apply its mind to the real challenge involving the plight of farmers. YSR's son has jumped on to another platform to launch a separate fast ~ seizing the opportunity for what may lead to the formation of another party after being discarded by the Congress. The question is whether the fast-track appeal to the people's conscience will fetch these leaders the desired dividends when the state has had more than its share of political drama.

Farmers, of course, constitute a considerable segment of the rural population that has helped Mamata Banerjee to usher in a climate of change in Bengal since the panchayat elections in 2008. The fast that she had mounted in Kolkata in favour of the farmers of Singur had a lasting effect and produced a resurgent Opposition. Naidu who has pledged an indefinite fast, like the Trinamul chief, and Jaganmohan Reddy who confined his fast to 48 hours may not have been directly inspired by Trinamul but could be eyeing the same results when the political scene in Andhra is rather fluid. A new chief minister is coping with internal squabbles in the party, with sizeable sections either part of the YSR legacy or sitting on the fence. Naidu and the young Reddy both carry a baggage of personal ambitions that are so conspicuous that their protests may be seen in poor light. That doesn't explain either the administrative apathy or the delayed response to human distress.

 

CRISIS STAVED OFF

NORTH KOREA'S REMARKABLE RESTRAINT

A renewed crisis in Korea, which appeared to be brewing in November as never before since 1953, has mercifully been staved off. The unfolding itself marks a new chapter in the history of the peninsula ~ a North Korean blitz followed by the South's live-fire artillery drills ("scheduled", interjected Barack Obama) and Pyongyang's remarkable restraint on Monday. The impact of a counter-reprisal is much too chilling even to imagine particularly in the context of the North's threat of "brutal consequences beyond imagination" if the drills went forward. In the event, the North has held its fire and literally so though Pyongyang has kept the world guessing about its mood-swing after a display of war-time bluster. Chiefly, whether indeed the South Korean exercise was "not worth reacting to", as it claims, or whether the North was anxious to convey a message internationally ~ "the world should properly know who is the true champion of peace and who is the real provocateur of war".  It has been the topic of an engaging debate for the past 60 years; suffice it to register that a crisis that at one stage had seemed to trigger a new Cold War ~ in a season of freezing temperatures ~ has been averted. And palpable is the feeling of relief in South Korea and the world at large. Is it possible that there has been some headway in the recent talks on the North's nuclear programme? Not least in the context of the revelation of a new nuclear facility in Pyongyang.  The reasons for the retreat from hostilities can only be speculated upon. A turnaround certainly for a regime that had sunk a South Korean warship last March, killing 46 sailors.

It devolves on the Security Council to ensure that the tension does not spiral out of control. The crucial task may not be accomplished anytime soon in view of what the US envoy, Susan Rice, calls "severe differences within the Council that are unlikely to be resolved". The North and the South must observe restraint; equally must Russia and China abjure the ambiguity of not blaming the North for the crisis. The comity of nations must devise what Moscow calls "a gameplan to counter the crisis". Central to any resolution must be a Security Council  agreement, transcending Beijing's rhetoric that "no one had the right to preach or promote a conflict". The UN's failure to reach an agreement illustrates the divide in international relations.

 

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THE STATESMAN

ARTICLE

LAPSED AND FORFEITED

NEED TO AMEND THE RULES OF INSURANCE BUSINESS

ASHWANI MAHAJAN

 

THE Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) issued its report for 2009-10 on 12 December. Although the business of private life insurance companies has registered a 19.7 per cent growth in 2009-10, nearly 12.1 million policies either lapsed or were forfeited. During 2008-09, 9.1 million policies had suffered a similar fate. The report also states that more than 60 per cent of the policies issued by private life insurance companies have either lapsed or been forfeited in just one year. The numbers are alarming and frightening as well.

Statistics reveal that the ratio of lapsed or forfeited policies was 81 per cent in the case of ICICI Prudential, the largest private sector life insurance company. During 2008-09, it was 59 per cent for this company alone. The ratio for different companies ranged from 4 to 81 per cent.

The phenomenon of lapsed and forfeited policies is not new. However, in the case of Life Insurance Corporation of India, only four per cent of the policies had either lapsed or were forfeited during 2009-10.

 

Whilst the percentage of such policies has increased sharply in the case of private companies, it actually declined from 6 per cent in 2007-08 to 4 per cent in 2009-10 in LIC's case.

LIC is a huge organization, one that had enjoyed a monopoly for a long time. The value of its lapsed and forfeited policies in 2009-10 was a whopping Rs 1,147 billion, or nearly half of the total amount of Rs 2,148 million. However, considering its size, the lapsed policies represent a very small percentage of its business.
The figure pertaining to the private insurers suggest that something is very seriously wrong. A person buys a life insurance policy to insure his family against future risks. One can also save tax with a life insurance policy.

 

Thus the twin objectives are savings along with insurance.

Before 2001-02, LIC had a monopoly over the life insurance business. That fiscal, the private sector companies were permitted to engage in the life insurance business. Foreign capital, subject to a ceiling of 26 per cent, was also allowed. Today, along with LIC, as many as 21 private companies are engaged in the life insurance business.  There was a huge growth in the sector after  2001, and with the advent of private sector companies.

 

Initially, LIC contributed substantially to this growth in parallel with the private sector. LIC's growth rate, however, has been negative over the past two years. On the other hand, private sector companies have registered a sharp increase in new business.

Although IRDA has not published data about the premium paid on lapsed or forfeited policies, certain assumptions can be made. Even if 20 per cent of the premium paid was forfeited, this would amount to Rs 430 billion. This means that in just one year, insurance companies would have earned a windfall in income from lapsed and forfeited policies.

As per rules, a life insurance policy lapses if the premium remains unpaid for between 15 and 60 days from the due date. Lapse of life insurance policies is a natural process, but such a high percentage of lapse or forfeiture is disconcerting. According to experts, the lapse ratio of more than 10 per cent is an alarm signal for the life insurance industry. But when this ratio crosses 50 per cent for many companies, one may legitimately raise questions about the integrity of these enterprises.

While the companies blame the economic slowdown for the high rate of lapse and forfeiture, there are many who blame the aggressive ~ and even unprincipled ~ selling of insurance policies. In order to promote their business, some companies try to lure customers with the so-called "benefits" of the policy, while keeping them in the dark about the terms and conditions attached.

Once a policy-holder is aware of the strings attached, he is faced with two choices ~ to continue with the policy or to cut his losses and stop payment of premium. The second option leads to a policy lapse. In both cases, the policy-holder is the loser, while the company gains. Indeed, when the client chooses to let the policy lapse, the company gains considerably because it is absolved of all responsibility.

Private sector insurance companies are not ready to accept that their marketing strategies are responsible for this situation. But the very low ratio of lapsed and forfeited policies in the case of LIC, compared to more than 60 per cent in the case of private companies, points to a fundamental fault. The argument of recession is untenable when one reflects that the percentage of lapsed and forfeited policies has actually come down in the case of LIC.

Savings are at risk. And if that risk stems from a conscious strategy of private insurance companies, there is need for intervention. While IRDA publishes data, it cannot act suo motu against any company. It can act only when a policy-holder complains. Therefore, in the absence of a general action and stricter regulation, unscrupulous companies can continue to lure ill-informed people and appropriate their savings.

Till 2010, IRDA had received 8,592 complaints. In 2009-10, it received only 2,449 complaints. This is a minor figure when contrasted with the millions of lapsed policies. It  suggests that IRDA has failed to protect policy-holders. There is a clear case for IRDA's rules to be amended to counter the grubby marketing strategies of private insurance companies. The savings of millions of people are at stake.

 

THE Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) issued its report for 2009-10 on 12 December. Although the business of private life insurance companies has registered a 19.7 per cent growth in 2009-10, nearly 12.1 million policies either lapsed or were forfeited. During 2008-09, 9.1 million policies had suffered a similar fate. The report also states that more than 60 per cent of the policies issued by private life insurance companies have either lapsed or been forfeited in just one year. The numbers are alarming and frightening as well.

Statistics reveal that the ratio of lapsed or forfeited policies was 81 per cent in the case of ICICI Prudential, the largest private sector life insurance company. During 2008-09, it was 59 per cent for this company alone. The ratio for different companies ranged from 4 to 81 per cent.

The phenomenon of lapsed and forfeited policies is not new. However, in the case of Life Insurance Corporation of India, only four per cent of the policies had either lapsed or were forfeited during 2009-10.

 

Whilst the percentage of such policies has increased sharply in the case of private companies, it actually declined from 6 per cent in 2007-08 to 4 per cent in 2009-10 in LIC's case.

LIC is a huge organization, one that had enjoyed a monopoly for a long time. The value of its lapsed and forfeited policies in 2009-10 was a whopping Rs 1,147 billion, or nearly half of the total amount of Rs 2,148 million. However, considering its size, the lapsed policies represent a very small percentage of its business.
The figure pertaining to the private insurers suggest that something is very seriously wrong. A person buys a life insurance policy to insure his family against future risks. One can also save tax with a life insurance policy.

 

Thus the twin objectives are savings along with insurance.

Before 2001-02, LIC had a monopoly over the life insurance business. That fiscal, the private sector companies were permitted to engage in the life insurance business. Foreign capital, subject to a ceiling of 26 per cent, was also allowed. Today, along with LIC, as many as 21 private companies are engaged in the life insurance business.  There was a huge growth in the sector after  2001, and with the advent of private sector companies.

 

Initially, LIC contributed substantially to this growth in parallel with the private sector. LIC's growth rate, however, has been negative over the past two years. On the other hand, private sector companies have registered a sharp increase in new business.

Although IRDA has not published data about the premium paid on lapsed or forfeited policies, certain assumptions can be made. Even if 20 per cent of the premium paid was forfeited, this would amount to Rs 430 billion. This means that in just one year, insurance companies would have earned a windfall in income from lapsed and forfeited policies.

As per rules, a life insurance policy lapses if the premium remains unpaid for between 15 and 60 days from the due date. Lapse of life insurance policies is a natural process, but such a high percentage of lapse or forfeiture is disconcerting. According to experts, the lapse ratio of more than 10 per cent is an alarm signal for the life insurance industry. But when this ratio crosses 50 per cent for many companies, one may legitimately raise questions about the integrity of these enterprises.

While the companies blame the economic slowdown for the high rate of lapse and forfeiture, there are many who blame the aggressive ~ and even unprincipled ~ selling of insurance policies. In order to promote their business, some companies try to lure customers with the so-called "benefits" of the policy, while keeping them in the dark about the terms and conditions attached.

Once a policy-holder is aware of the strings attached, he is faced with two choices ~ to continue with the policy or to cut his losses and stop payment of premium. The second option leads to a policy lapse. In both cases, the policy-holder is the loser, while the company gains. Indeed, when the client chooses to let the policy lapse, the company gains considerably because it is absolved of all responsibility.

 

Private sector insurance companies are not ready to accept that their marketing strategies are responsible for this situation. But the very low ratio of lapsed and forfeited policies in the case of LIC, compared to more than 60 per cent in the case of private companies, points to a fundamental fault. The argument of recession is untenable when one reflects that the percentage of lapsed and forfeited policies has actually come down in the case of LIC.

Savings are at risk. And if that risk stems from a conscious strategy of private insurance companies, there is need for intervention. While IRDA publishes data, it cannot act suo motu against any company. It can act only when a policy-holder complains. Therefore, in the absence of a general action and stricter regulation, unscrupulous companies can continue to lure ill-informed people and appropriate their savings.
Till 2010, IRDA had received 8,592 complaints. In 2009-10, it received only 2,449 complaints. This is a minor figure when contrasted with the millions of lapsed policies. It  suggests that IRDA has failed to protect policy-holders. There is a clear case for IRDA's rules to be amended to counter the grubby marketing strategies of private insurance companies. The savings of millions of people are at stake.

The writer is Associate Professor, PGDAV College, University of Delhi

 

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THE STATESMAN

PERSPECTIVE

WHEN DEMOCRACY WINS IN RURAL INDIA

 

Sanjo Kol attracted widespread attention for her courageous and dedicated work for the people of her village after getting elected as the adivasi pradhan of Girudha village (Chitrakut district of Uttar Pradesh). Such was the terror of dacoits here that often she could not spend the night in her village. Still she worked with such dedication that her village become known for development work (such as a well-constructed check dam and tank) and welfare schemes. Sanjo also found the time to help neighbouring panchayats and participate in social movements. For all these efforts, she was honoured at a national conference on women panchayat leaders organised in Delhi.

During panchayat elections in 2010, this seat was no longer reserved for women and several feudal interests had ganged up to defeat her. However, in the face of such heavy odds, Sanjo managed to win the election for the post of pradhan once again.

Sanjo thanks the local voluntary organisation ABSSS for helping her in difficult times and adds, "Now our village is threatened by displacement in the name of wildlife protection. We need to establish wider unity to protect our villages."

The victory of Lalaram Prajapati in Uttar Pradesh's panchayat elections is being widely discussed. He has been elected from Nahri panchayat in Banda district. When the drought had peaked in the Bundelkhand region, several starvation deaths were reported in Nahri panchayat. One of those who died of starvation was  Bhagwat Prajapati. He was the brother of Lalaram Prajapati. Thus, a member of a family which experienced a starvation death has now been elected pradhan of this village. 

When the controversy over starvation deaths was at its peak, Rahul Gandhi had  visited this village and met Bhagwat's family, including Lalaram Prajapati. Lalaram says that Rahul's visit inspired him to stand up and fight the causes of hunger. He took the courageous decision of fighting panchayat elections even though he knew that he would have to confront very rich and powerful persons. Lalaram's decision enthused the poor people of this village and they collected donations for his small election expenses. On the one hand, the rich candidate was distributing money among voters. On the other, people were giving small donations for Lalaram Prajapati. He could fight the election only on the basis of these donations.

When the election results were announced, the people of the village were happy to know that Lalaram had won by a substantial margin of 130 votes. Now people have high hopes in him. When this writer recently met Lalaram, he said emphatically that it is a shame that grain is rotting in warehouses while the poor go hungry. He also emphasised improvement in education as a top priority.

In Naugavaan panchayat, another poor person (his name is also Lalaram) has been able to defeat the candidate who represents feudal forces. So arrogant are these feudals that, some time ago, they told social activists working with the poor that they wouldn't be allowed to enter the village.

In 2005, the feudal forces of Ragauli Bhattpur had won the panchayat elections by calling in several gunmen to ensure that their candidate got most of the votes. But this time (in 2010), a man called Rajaram who had toiled in stone quarries was able to win the panchayat election.

In Bilharka panchayat in 2005, the seat was reserved for Dalit women. So the feudal forces found a Dalit woman dependent on them to contest the election as their proxy candidate. During the next five years, they controlled the panchayat affairs, using the name of the Dalit pradhan. She was not even allowed to speak to outsiders. But this year a worker Mangal Singh who is opposed to the feudal forces managed to win the election. Similarly, in Saahpatan village, Harishankar Nishad who did not have any money for election expenses won the election.

News of these election victories of poor candidates has come when sharply escalating election budgets in panchayat elections have been widely reported. What is more inspiring is that, in most cases, these candidates have fought against powerful feudal interests. If we also count ward members and BDCs, then the number of such victorious candidates increases significantly. This victory of the poor against rich, arrogant and feudal forces is a victory of not just these candidates but also a victory for democracy.

A significant contribution to this victory was made by Vidyadham Samiti, a voluntary organisation and its sister organisation Chingari. As Raja Bhaiya, founder of Vidyadham Samiti says, "We carried out a campaign for free and fair elections and also encouraged honest weaker section candidates from poor families.
Raja Bhaiya adds that the campaigns of Vidyadham Samiti was helped by the campaign of two organisations, ALGI and ABSSS, before the panchayat raj elections which organised workshops for panchayat raj reforms and also made available useful literature and posters.

Now Vidyadham Samiti will try to ensure that at least some of these panchayats can develop as model panchayats doing good work. Earlier, Kanai panchayat had come close to this model when Amod Rawat was the pradhan here during 2005-2010. Such efforts should be helped and encouraged by the government as well as various institutions associated with the reform and empowerment of panchayat raj.

The writer is currently a Fellow at the Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi

 

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THE STATESMAN

PERSPECTIVE

FIDDLER ON THE ROOF

NOW & AGAIN

SUNIPA BASU

Though considerable effort is required to put a household in suspended animation while away on a longish trip, it is the experience on return that is the most interesting. That is what I discovered on my sojourns to visit our children away from home. 

The lure of home starts tugging at the heart once the excitement of the visit dies down. The reverse countdown begins when the return tickets are booked and the itinerary is set. The first task is to track our household help to clean up the flat and cook the initial meal when we reach. The ubiquitous mobile has made the task a lot easier where earlier it was more like a detective search. My first act on landing is to have a warm soapy bath to wash away the dirt and grime of the journey. There is no alternative to the luxury of one's own bathroom for the self-restoration. My second fetish is to unpack immediately and put back everything in its designated place so as to erase the mental discomfort of having to live out of a suitcase. The human mind has two paradoxical impulses. While one part seeks to be on the move, the other loves the status quo. We oscillate between the two.
As I step out for the morning walk after a restful sleep on our old bed, the world outside looks at once familiar and new. The stray dogs take but a split second to recognize me and wag their tail vigorously in acceptance and a couple of them amble alongside for some time. Friends and acquaintances greet you with "How are you?" and "long time no see". That warms the cockles of your heart. This renewal may take as long as a week or ten days till all the missing links are established. Apart from the status report on local politics, the economy, law and order and so on, family status reports on births, deaths, marriage and gossip with all the whispers are no less momentous.

Logistics also require a degree of planning. The newspaper man is perhaps the most vital for on any holiday there is a tendency to miss out on the news and the television as you are living in a no man's land where the fate of the other place is not linked to yours. The telephone is the second vital service to put you in touch with the extended family and friends so as to announce your arrival and become a part of the milieu. The other service providers troop in one by one to oil the engine of a stalled household. It is good to feel that you have been missed if only as a client. Yet the adage that ''absence makes the heart grow fonder" makes them more solicitous and caring for the initial period. Come to think of it, each link involves emotions and relationships that sustain the body and soul much like the fiddler on the roof who found love in the daily chores of washing clothes, darning socks and cooking meals.

As the sunlight fades and evening creeps in on the neighbourhood, a sense of peace and well-being permeates you - secure in the ties that bind you from within and without. If this "maya" is not desirable, what is? 

 

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THE STATESMAN

PERSPECTIVE

THE DEBATE THAT STILL DIVIDES AMERICA

DAVID USBORNE

The pantomime season only lasted a day in Charleston, South Carolina this year, but no one can say the amateur dramatics – and the audience participation – did not have a special intensity about them. The American Civil War wasn't about slavery, honestly. Oh, yes it was! Oh, no it wasn't! Oh, yes it was!

This was the scene, more or less, at the city's municipal auditorium on Monday night, 150 years to the day after the signing of the declaration of secession from the Union by South Carolina, an act of mutiny that sowed the seeds of Confederacy and set in motion a conflict that killed roughly 620,000 Americans. 

Inside the hall, 200-odd guests, all white and some in period costume, gathered to see a re-enactment of the signing of the secession document. When it was over, they instinctively joined the cast in singing the anthem of the South, "Dixie", before repairing to an adjoining hall for dinner and dancing. 

Outside, a racially mixed crowd of about 100 held electric candles aloft at dusk to begin a protest march through downtown Charleston, singing the songs of Selma and Montgomery, including "We Shall Overcome". Each camp thus indulged in their forms of theatre before taking to their beds.

But the US is only at the beginning of a four-year stretch of events to commemorate the Civil War, which will peak with the anniversary in November 2013 of Abraham Lincoln's "Gettysburg Address". The mostly polite battle in Charleston will be played out throughout the intervening period - and it may not always be so controlled. If the Civil War was about the South protecting and eventually losing its right to practise slavery, what place has this nostalgia? 

"The South lost the war but they really won it, because they continue to say the war was not about slavery, which is not true of course," argued Blain Roberts, an assistant professor of history at California State University, who attended the South Carolina Secession Gala to conduct research for a book. "They won the memory of the war, at least."

Also in the hall to observe rather than participate – you could tell because she was not in the hooped skirt costume of Gone with the Wind – was Cynthia Cowan, a Masters student at Houston University, who was more blunt. Those who had bought the $100 tickets for the evening were "wilfully ignorant or proudly nonchalant" of the offence they would inevitably cause, she said.

If the organisers of the Secession Gala felt the heat of inquiring reporters and noisy protesters, for the guests, the atmosphere, fuelled by mint julep cocktails and bowls of shrimp and grits, was more delirious than defensive. Never mind the breeze-block walls and lino-tile floor, or that the furniture for the re-enactment was more 1970s office than 1860s ceremonial.

Proud is how most seemed to feel. Donna Simpson was so because her fifth great-grandfather was the uncle of Robert E Lee, the legendary Confederate General. Her husband, Mark, is the commander, South Carolina, of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, a charity organisation. "We celebrate life," he said, responding to the claims that the event was feting slavery. "We are glad that slavery came to an end."

To the music of a band aptly called Un-Reconstructed, the Simpsons and other couples in their finery joined the Grand March, entering the hall in pairs with as much Scarlett O'Hara pomp as they could muster, and bowing before their hosts – the national commander-in-chief of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, Michael Givens, and his wife – beneath the stage. The subsequent hours of dancing were interrupted only once when a plastic oak tree draped with fake Spanish moss toppled over after being sideswiped by a damsel who had briefly forgotten how impractical those old-fashioned skirts really were.

Mr Givens found all the questions about slavery pesky. "We are not celebrating that and this is not malicious," he said. "It's about honouring our forefathers for their tenacity. It's about the bravery and courage of our ancestors." 
On hand to galvanise the protesters was a local clergyman, the Rev Nelson Rivers. "If Japanese Americans chose to celebrate Pearl Harbour this way it would be outrageous and would not be allowed to occur and that is what is happening here tonight," he said into a megaphone.

Tangee Rice, 57, an African American woman, drove 120 miles to the march and was wearing the same hat her grandfather had worn marching with Martin Luther King. "The Confederacy is not something to celebrate," she said. "It's just not right." About those re-enacting the start of the Civil War, she said: "They still haven't grown out of it, and it's really sad."

Argument about what sparked the War – Mr Givens and Mr Simpson will tell you it was about tariffs and taxes imposed by the North – will never end. But the harder issue, which Ms Rice raises, is this: Yes, America is a much different place now, but does the nostalgia conceal a lingering racism, even a yearning for history to be rewound?

the independent

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THE TELEGRAPH

REAL DUTY

 

A victory rally in the middle of the city addressed by the chief minister of the state because the Left-backed primary teachers' association has won the district primary school council elections is surpassing strange. It may be a mark of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)'s pitiful lack of nerves before the assembly elections that the chief minister himself should be congratulating teachers for doing a great job. But why traffic in half the city should be thrown into turmoil because the chief minister feels the urge to celebrate a CPI(M) win in district school councils is a question that only the CPI(M) and its friends can answer. Evidently, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee is only the chief minister of his party; the rest of the populace can go to the nether regions.

 

Far weirder is the chief minister's message to the teachers. They should now illuminate thousands of their students' guardians about the "ideologies and principles" of the party, and thus launch a widespread "campaign" to reach the masses. This is the teachers' "duty", although Mr Bhattacharjee did recall for a moment that a teacher's job is also to "teach". This naked display of topsy-turvy priorities exposes the source of the ills the CPI(M) has wrought in Bengal. That teachers do not teach, they join political associations, they are even appointed on the basis of their politics are phenomena West Bengal has grown used to. But that open secret is now no longer a secret. Mr Bhattacharjee has also flaunted the fact that the party's reiterated desire to change is just another whopper. At the heart of the destruction of the education system lie two simple realities — the party's fathomless ignorance and teachers' politicization. West Bengal fares pathetically in primary education, and numbers of children in the districts drop out in Class V because they have been taught nothing at all and cannot keep up. Few things can be stranger than having the chief minister of a state — Mr Bhattacharjee is probably a bit amnesiac here — congratulate teachers for winning a party-based election when they do not teach, and then ask them to do their "duty" by spreading the party doctrine among guardians. Not satisfied with destroying all possibility of education in the villages by creating a new board to garner more votes, the chief minister is now out to wreck all children's futures and redefine the duty of teachers in the state.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPINION

FAMILY VALUES

 

A four-year-old HIV+ orphan abandoned by her larger family and unable to find a foster home is a terrible story. The child is from Assam, and a look at the larger picture in the state provides the frame for this girl's situation. First, there are nearly 70 other orphaned children in Assam who are either HIV+ or have AIDS, and whose parents have died of AIDS. But these children are all living with other members of family. So, obviously, the awareness-raising programmes in the state and throughout India have started to work at one level. This abandoned girl's fate, being almost an exception in Assam, is, in a sense, doubly unfortunate. Of course, there are other questions that come up in relation to these 70, more fortunate, children. How many of them are old enough to go to school, and are able to do so? And, in school, what sort of attitudes and behaviour do they face? Have the awareness drives made a difference there? What if they have to be hospitalized? Would they be barred admission on disclosure of their HIV+ status?

 

To come back to the abandoned child, what seems to have failed, over and above the attitude of her surviving family, is the government's part of the responsibility to accommodate her in a suitable institution. So, even if a change in attitude seems to be happening, relatively speaking, the government's failure to build proper homes for children whose parents have died of AIDS and who are themselves infected or ill prevents children like this girl to be cared for properly. So this, among others, is one area where the state government and other non-government agencies have to pull up their socks urgently. It is, so to speak, 'easier' to work with attitude change without taking too much help from the government. And, at a superficial level, more members of civil society, ordinary citizens, are interested in this sort of work. But the more material and infrastructural work is difficult to do because, at every stage, the government's co-operation is actively required. So, providing free treatment facilities, building homes and hospices and arranging for foster care become more challenging problems with less obvious rewards for those who do them. Thus, this aspect of HIV/AIDS gets neglected, both by the State and by civil society. It needs a different kind of political will. The story of this child requires more than a sentimental response.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPINION

HANDLE WITH CARE

WEST BENGAL POSES A REAL DILEMMA FOR THE CONGRESS

SWAPAN DASGUPTA

 

In the realm of domestic politics, 2010 seems set to end with both the Congress and the Manmohan Singh government looking somewhat fragile. A series of corruption- related scandals that began from the run-up to the Commonwealth Games last August and reached its climax with the Opposition agitation for the appointment of a joint parliamentary committee to explore the 2G spectrum allotments have shaken the Congress's self- confidence. The Congress leadership's bid to talk up the party's morale by mounting a shrill offensive against the Bharatiya Janata Party at this week's otherwise purposeless AICC session in Delhi doesn't seem to have repaired the damage. On the contrary, the cocktail of scandals, telephone intercepts and leaked diplomatic cables have dented the image of the prime minister and called into question the leadership potential of the Congress's designated heir presumptive.

 

Politics, however, is a long-term game, and with no general election scheduled till the summer of 2014, it is presumptuous to rush to the conclusion that the United Progressive Alliance has become too beleaguered to function as a purposeful government. Time is still on the UPA's side. Whether or not it will be able to stage a grand recovery and shift the national agenda to issues of its own choosing may, however, be substantially dependant on the verdict in the next summer's assembly elections in five states. The West Bengal assembly election result, in particular, holds the key to how national politics will shape up.

 

The significance of the West Bengal poll can hardly be overstated. Having ruled uninterruptedly for 34 years, the Left Front has a special interest in ensuring it holds on to its control of the Writers' Buildings. With Kerala, which also elects its assembly in the summer, looking increasingly susceptible to change, a Left defeat in West Bengal will underscore the marginalization of the communist parties in national politics.

 

Just prior to the 2009 general election, when the Left Front accounted for a solid bloc of nearly 70 Lok Sabha MPs, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) played a seminal role in nurturing the illusion of a Third Front that would hold the balance of power in a fractured parliament. It was on the strength of the CPI(M)'s seemingly impregnable base in West Bengal that Prakash Karat could challenge the bipolar division of politics in the country. The 30-plus Lok Sabha seats it was forever confident of winning from West Bengal provided it the launching pad for predatory raids on the National Democratic Alliance, many of whose partners were wary of the negative impact of their association with the BJP on minority voters. The alternative possibilities offered by a CPI(M)-led Third Front was one of the factors behind the desertion of the Telugu Desam Party and the Biju Janata Dal from the NDA. It was also a factor behind the perennial hesitation of the Asom Gana Parishad to cement a long-term alliance with the BJP, an alliance that many in Assam see as 'natural'. Had the CPI still retained the influence it once had in Bihar, it is entirely possible that the same compulsions that propelled N. Chandrababu Naidu and Naveen Patnaik into leaving the NDA would have influenced Nitish Kumar too.

 

More than the Congress, for which it posed a headache only during the last two years of the first UPA government, the Left, in recent years, has proved a very effective spoiler to the BJP by providing an alternative pole of attraction to many of its NDA partners. The Congress, on the other hand, has been the direct beneficiary of a process that has prevented all the anti- Congress regional parties from rallying behind the BJP-led alliance.

 

Since the Left could not have performed this divisive role without the assurance of firm electoral support from West Bengal, some Congress strategists are understandably nervous of the national implications of a decisive Mamata Banerjee win in 2011. If the 2009 Lok Sabha results are replicated in next year's assembly election, along with an extra dose of incremental support for the Trinamul Congress-led alliance, the CPI(M) is unlikely to be in any position to revive its Third Front pipedream for the 2014 general election. Its entire energies and resources are certain to be taken up by the challenges of survival in a hostile environment. The CPI(M)'s internal preoccupations in turn would — in theory, at least — leave the field wide open for the BJP-led NDA to emerge as the sole challenger to the UPA on the national stage.

 

The possible re-emergence of national bipolarity, as happened between 1998 and 2004, may be beneficial to the Congress if it transforms the contest into an undiluted secular-communal battle. However, it is far from certain that the BJP will oblige. It is more likely that the NDA will fight the general election on a centrist plank and target the UPA's 10-year record. In that event, a battlefield where a weak Left is confined ineffectively to the margins will not seem attractive to the Congress.

 

West Bengal poses a real dilemma for the Congress. Its state unit wants a breather from uninterrupted Left rule; but its national compulsions favour Left rule in the state, as a counterweight to the BJP. The choice would have been less stark had the Congress been an equal partner of the TMC. But the Congress is virtually leaderless and is only relevant in just four border districts. More to the point, it sees little hope of being able to influence the mercurial TMC chief whose one-point priority is to decimate the Left; everything else is incidental. As the TMC's conduct during the recent stalemate in Parliament suggests, Mamata does not share the Congress's national priorities and is willing to side with the Opposition if it suits her self-interest. This individualism may have been spurred by the suspicion in TMC circles that the Congress is willing to sacrifice its interests in West Bengal for 'national' compulsions.

 

It is in this context that the tensions between the TMC and Congress over the future of the mahajot in West Bengal can be located. A beleaguered CPI(M) is aware that its hope of somehow transforming an imminent rout into a contest lies in dividing the anti-Left vote. The CPI(M), for example, is discreetly encouraging the BJP into believing that it can secure more than 7 per cent of the popular vote by contesting all the 294 seats. Likewise, Lutyens's Delhi resonates with whispers of the Left offer of a covert bail-out of the UPA government in the budget session of Parliament if the Congress chooses to make its 'self-respect' an issue in the seat negotiations with the TMC. The Left has calculated that a headstrong Mamata won't think twice before walking out of the UPA government, if the Centre's image becomes a liability. As such, the CPI(M) is persisting with its unwavering attack on the Congress at the Centre. It is hoping that the more the UPA is vulnerable in Delhi, the more it will be inclined to strike a local deal in Calcutta, and the more likely Mamata will see her junior partner as an unnecessary passenger.

 

On the ground, the West Bengal election resembles ugly street battles and even a dance of death. In rarefied Delhi, it is marked by byzantine parlour diplomacy where the will of the people is viewed as a negotiable commodity. Yet, it is imprudent to judge the politicians too harshly. This is one rare occasion when the collective wisdom of West Bengal will determine the course of national politics. The stakes are very high.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPINION

NO CAUSE FOR CHEER

BONAFIDE: MALVIKA SINGH

 

What can we celebrate this season? Where is the creative energy of this special country and its people, who have unbounded resilience and patience? If we stop being obsessed with the faulty governance and bizarre politics of India, there is a palpable change happening. Indians, who get even the slightest opportunity to follow their dreams, are moving on, despite the horrors of a nation besieged by corruption, greed and malice at the high table of the powerful few who have become disconnected from the despair that ordinary citizens, betrayed by the leadership, feel. Cumbersome rules dominate every start-up small business, endless silly paperwork needs to be gone through before any productive step can be taken, unpleasant government officers have to be dealt with. All the paraphernalia that makes India virtually unliveable, if one is honest, has been circumvented.

 

World-class resorts exist, but the joy of raising the benchmark with every passing year gets diluted to the point where frustration suffocates the entrepreneur from reaching greater heights because of the ridiculous and archaic system of permissions for obvious aspects of a business. It merely gives space to many levels of bribery and corruption, with government representatives stalling legitimate permissions till they are paid off to do their mandatory jobs. Such is the case with the entertainment and fashion industries as well. In restaurants, bar licences are not given till some absurd signages are put in place, such as 'Exit' above the stairway — such requirements kill aesthetics for no real and necessary reason. It is babudomat its worst, stuck in the hands of inexperienced men and women who know no better and are uninformed and unaware of a changed world beyond their confines.

 

Fairness and fun

 

It is this contrast — between middle-level babus being made to regulate a changing reality (where their lack of intellectual outreach disables them from adding value to a new and lively India) and a generation that will not allow itself to be shackled by norms of an age gone by — that is starkly unambiguous. Is our political leadership blind to all this? Is it incapable of restructuring the laws and policies that govern the service sector? Why does it permit the babu to indulge in rampant small- and large-scale corruption? Why is government endorsing the killing of revenue-generation in this sector of the economy that is the backbone of India?

 

Happily, heroic human endeavour and passion do not die at the hands of a moribund set of rules and norms that dominate our lives. Entrepreneurs continue to create world-class products, leaving behind the nightmare of government and its babu. Kingdom of Dreams, an entertainment world, in a walled-in area in Gurgaon, symbolizes that energy. That Broadway-style musical show is comparable to anything anywhere in the world in design, technology and performance — 600 viewers on a weekday, included young and old, families and couples, all out for an evening of fun and laughter, good food and drink. For those few hours, away from television-screens and the sick-making truths about our leaders and their cohorts, one relaxed in the thought that India is on the move.

 

'Anonymous' non-Page-Three people, hardworking and earning well in this new age, were out there sharing a contemporary experience, secure in their skin. It is these Indians that governments have betrayed by not delivering their end of the deal. The public road leading to the venue is potholed, badly lit, broken down; but once you enter the gates of the Kingdom of Dreams, it all works like clockwork. There were no babus expecting freebies. People were paying for the fun — and fun it was.

 

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******************************************************************************************DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

TRUSTED FRIEND

'BILATERAL TIES ARE POISED TO BECOME STRONGER.'

 

The impressive outcome of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to India underlines not only the strengthening of the friendship between the two countries but also a welcome determination to deepen and widen its scope. Medvedev's visit is the latest in a series of high-profile visits by leaders of almost all major countries, which is an acknowledgement of India's growing importance. But the relations between India and Russia are 'special and privileged', as noted by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and endorsed by Medvedev. There was an uncertain phase in the relationship immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but soon the old ties were restored.  In the recent past there were reports of apprehensions in Moscow about India's growing ties with the US. But these have also been put away by the realisation that their mutual engagement is not affected by the relationship of either country with others.

A slew of 30 agreements signed by the two sides, covering areas ranging from nuclear and space co-operation, defence and business to counter-terrorism and culture, attests to the expanded scope of the relationship. The multi-million dollar programme for joint production of a fifth generation fighter aircraft could be a milestone in collaboration. India's traditional defence relationship with Russia was that of a customer, with Moscow meeting 70 per cent of its arms and equipment requirements. But the fighter aircraft programme takes it to a new level of partnership marked by  joint development and collaboration. Russia has also offered the best terms in its defence deals, supplying India with technologies and hardware, like nuclear submarines, which other countries were not willing to give, and without restrictive conditions like end-user clauses. There has only been one difficult deal, related to the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, and it has now been sorted out.

The strong political underpinning of the relationship was evident during the visit. Both countries have many common geostrategic interests and concerns. Medvedev did not mince words in demanding that Pakistan should bring those behind the Mumbai terrorist attack to book and shared India's view that Afghanistan can be stabilised only if the terror havens in Pakistan are eliminated. He also extended full support for India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and other bodies like the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The visit made it clear that bilateral ties are not only strong but are poised to become stronger.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

DEPLETING RESERVE

'GROUNDWATER EXTRACTION NEEDS TO BE REGULATED.'

 

The prospect of a water famine looms over Bangalore. Experts are warning that in five years from now the city could be in the grip of a severe water crisis. Parts of Bangalore — mainly its outlying neighbourhoods — are already struggling with severe water shortage. This could become a city-wide problem. There are several reasons for the growing scarcity. One, of course, is mounting demand; the city's population has grown manifold over the past decade. With water from the Cauvery, T G Halli and other surface water sources failing to meet growing demands, Bangalore has turned to tapping groundwater sources. Indeed, 40 per cent of Bangalore's current water consumption is being met by groundwater sources. But this unsustainable exploitation of groundwater is taking a heavy toll. It has depleted this source too. 

Unplanned development has contributed to this situation. Thousands of apartment complexes have sprung up in and around Bangalore, each one competing with the other in reaching lower into the earth to draw water. In the process, the ground has literally been sucked dry.

Bangalore was once known for its innumerable lakes. However, illegal encroachment of these water bodies by land sharks in recent years has deprived the city of its water sources. This encroachment has happened with the active connivance of city authorities who have turned a blind eye to this menace. It is well known that BBMP contractors dump solid waste in these lakes. In the circumstances, it is not surprising that there is an acute water crisis.

The looming water crisis is man-made. It can be averted. City authorities must crack down on encroachment of water bodies and rampant construction of buildings. Groundwater extraction needs to be regulated. Rainwater harvesting must be made compulsory, especially for apartment complexes, institutions and businesses. 

Recycling waste water must be taken seriously. At present, only a tenth of the city's waste water is being recycled. Thus there is gross underutilisation of waste water. The creation of wetlands through planting trees must be pursued by the government on a war footing. Experts have also drawn attention to the merits of tree-based parks over lawns. Tackling water scarcity is, however, not the concern of authorities alone. Bangalore's residents too have a role to play. We must stop irresponsible consumption of water if we are to make water scarcity history.

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DECCAN HERALD

MAIN ARTICLE

CHINA'S DIFFERENT STROKES

BY KULDIP NAYAR

South Asian countries should develop into a common market as Europe has done, with soft borders and free trade.

 

One did not have to be an expert on China to anticipate that the visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India would be a flop and the one to Pakistan a success. There was no surprise either in New Delhi or in Islamabad.

The joint statements issued in the two countries say it all. India refused to follow 'one China' policy which meant that it did not recognise Beijing's sovereignty over Tibet and Taiwan. This was a departure from New Delhi's stand in the three previous joint statements. Wen Jiabao refused to mention in the joint statement that Kashmir was India's integral part. What it would have meant was Beijing's barter of 'one China' for Kashmir. He did not do so keeping in mind Pakistan's sensitivities.

In sharp contrast, Pakistan not only enunciated a 'one China' policy but also condemned "any attempt to undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Obviously, the sling was directed at India and to reemphasise that China had in Pakistan a 'trusted and reliable' friend.

Wen was, however, careful not to say anything on Kashmir in New Delhi as well as in Islamabad. Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani said in a speech at the banquet in honour of the Chinese premier that the solution to Kashmir would usher in a new era of peace and prosperity in South Asia. It was a bait for Wen who preferred to stay silent. Even otherwise, Beijing has maintained that it wants India and Pakistan to resolve the question of Kashmir bilaterally.

However, from last year, China started issuing stapled visas to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. This is, no doubt, a departure from Beijing's earlier stand. But it conveys to New Delhi that Beijing regards J&K a disputed territory. The new Chinese approach also reveals that India's problem could be much larger than the question of stapled visas. It may well be that Beijing has a question mark against India's sovereignty over J&K.

Yet, before the Chinese premier's visit, the word from Beijing was that the stapled visa issue was an administrative not a political matter. New Delhi did not bring it up until the end when Wen took the initiative to mention the stapled visa. He did not pursue the subject despite New Delhi's desire to do so. After Wen's return to Beijing, the Indian embassy there said the matter had been entrusted to officials to sort it out.

The point on which the two sides strongly differed was terrorism. India was first keen on China mentioning the 26/11 attack on Mumbai in their joint statement. 

When Wen refused to do that, India merely wanted a reference to the word 'terrorism'. But the Chinese prime minister did not agree to it, probably because he was to visit Pakistan a day later. However, he did mention terrorism during his stay in Islamabad while praising Pakistan for its efforts towards fighting terrorism, countering criticism from many quarters that it is not doing enough. The reference was obviously to India and the US.

Not unexpected

However, India should have known Beijing's stand when it made it clear on the eve of Wen's departure that the Chinese government would play no role in pressuring Pakistan to crack down on terrorist groups operating on its soil. Beijing reiterated its position that cross-border terrorism and Kashmir were issues for India and Pakistan to resolve.

India's real worry is over the nibbling at 'its territory' by China. The media has extensively followed a story which appeared in one of the leading English dailies in Delhi. The story said that China had shown the length of the border with India around 2,000 kilometres as against 3,500 km it would mention earlier.

 

Probably, China has deducted the border along Kashmir and Tibet from the length it had mentioned earlier. This has come when India is already smarting under the Chinese 'occupation' of nearly 5,000 square miles of Shakigam Valley in 'Azad Kashmir' ceded by General Mohammed Ayub to Beijing. New Delhi fears that Beijing may push itself as a party to the Kashmir problem confined to India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris.

It is apparent that India and Pakistan have gone still more distant. One is moving towards America and the other towards China. Both New Delhi and Islamabad could get sucked into the ensuing cold war. America has its own designs to serve in the region as the Wikileaks disclosures show and China its own interest. When will India and Pakistan realise — and they will do so one day — that South Asia is neither for America nor China to boss over them. It is for the South Asians who should develop into a common market as Europe has done, with soft borders and free trade. Only then can the region develop.

Beijing can, however, play a role in persuading New Delhi and Islamabad to have sustainable dialogues for the resolution of all outstanding issues, including Kashmir. China has done well in entering into deals worth $16 billion with India and $12 billion with Pakistan. Strangely, trade between the two countries is only a fraction of their deals with China.

Even if these deals are to fructify in the real sense of the term, New Delhi and Islamabad have to develop confidence in each other. This may not be possible if both continue to arm themselves because the presence of weapons indicates the absence of peace.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

IN  PERSPECTIVE

NEW START HEADED FOR RATIFICATION

BY PETER BAKER, NYT

Obama argued that ratification was essential to rebuilding a relationship with Russia.

 

An arms control treaty paring back American and Russian nuclear arsenals won a decisive vote in the Senate on Tuesday, clearing it for final approval and handing President Barack Obama an important foreign policy victory.

The Senate voted the treaty, known as New Start, mustering the two-thirds majority needed for ratification.

The outcome was another bipartisan victory for Obama, who emerged politically wounded from last month's midterm elections but then successfully pressed Congress to enact several of his top priorities.

New Start was the last major challenge of the session for Obama, and in some ways it was the clearest assertion of his authority in the face of an emboldened Republican party. The tax-cut deal required the president to swallow a compromise that extended the lower, expiring Bush-era tax rates even for the wealthy, alienating much of his own party. The overturning of the 'don't ask, don't tell' military policy was driven in the final days as much by senators as by the White House.

A high-profile test

By putting his prestige on the line to push through the treaty before the end of the year, Obama made the fight a high-profile test of his clout in the new political environment. Just a month ago, prospects for the treaty appeared bleak in the face of Republican resistance. But Obama mounted an unusually relentless campaign to win over enough Republican senators to bypass their party's leaders.

"Today's bipartisan vote clears a significant hurdle in the Senate," said Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic chairman of the foreign relations committee, and the president's chief ally on the floor.

Republican critics called it a bad deal, arguing that the treaty's inspections were inadequate and that nonbinding language in its preamble could give Russia leverage to try to keep the US from deploying missile defence installations in eastern Europe.

"The administration did not negotiate a good treaty," said Senator Jon Kyl, the No 2 Republican and the leader of the opposition. The treaty requires the US and Russia to reduce their nuclear stockpiles so that within seven years of ratification neither deploys more than 1,550 strategic warheads and 700 launchers. It would also resume the on-site inspections that lapsed last December with the expiration of the original Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or Start.

The agreement brings down the legal ceilings set by previous Russian-American treaties that it would now supplant. Under the Treaty of Moscow, signed by President George W Bush in 2002, each side is allowed no more than 2,200 warheads as of 2012. Under Start, signed by President George H W Bush in 1991, each side was required to reduce launchers to 1,600 before it expired last year.

The US currently has 1,950 deployed strategic warheads and 798 deployed launchers, according to the Federation of American Scientists, while Russia has 2,540 deployed strategic warheads and 574 strategic launchers. Because of counting rules, each side may not have to shelve as many weapons as those numbers imply, according to experts.

The debate over the treaty, however, ranged far beyond the numbers, revealing starkly different visions for national security in the 21st century. Obama and his supporters argued that ratification was essential to rebuilding a relationship with Russia and maintaining the international coalition against Iran's nuclear program. His critics said it represented a first step toward a dangerous and wrong-headed vision of eventually eliminating the world's nuclear weapons.

It also became entangled in issues like gay men and lesbians in the military, which some Republicans said poisoned the water for the treaty. And some critics questioned Obama's willingness as commander in chief to resist Russian pressure to drop missile defence to preserve the pact down the road.

"I cannot imagine this president taking it to the limit with the Russians because nothing he has done has convinced me that he is committed to missile defence," said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who added that it was "a monumental mistake" to approve the treaty in a lame-duck session.

But the White House cast Obama in the shadow of President Ronald Reagan, who also talked of ridding the world of nuclear weapons. "Our reductions in these are legacies of many presidents, including former President Ronald Reagan," said Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary. "And it makes the world safer."

 

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DECCAN HERALD

RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE

PLEASANT SURPRISE ON THE CARDS

BY L SUBRAMANI

It was clear that nothing at all could get back the lost sum.

 

As the bank website gradually unfolded on the computer screen, confidence soared and an indefinable joy filled the heart. Having restrained all the urge to lavish my earnings on the ever-lengthening 'to-buy' list, I was hoping to find a respectable sum gracing the 'available amount' column of the online banking page.

The glittering figures on the computer screen, however, jolted me out of the chair. The withdrawal/expense column displayed transactions for Rs 8,000. It wasn't me… Then who else?... For a while, I was toeing with the idea that someone had cloned my debit card. A while later it sounded ridiculous even though it was plausible. A quick search of the wallet revealed the obvious: the card was missing and someone had happily swiped the sum away.

Shock and disbelief slowly gave way to anger and the urge to find and punish the guilty. Yes, it is possible to trace the transaction to the person involved, but the effort needed to do that — especially, given the running arounds required to get the valuable and privileged services of our law-enforcement authorities — aborted the attempt.

Even milder speculations that the culprit could be one who knows me failed to inspire anger and hatred. The gradual realisation that the money was lost for ever slowly set in like night on the evening sky.

Friends tried a few words of consolation; critics readily blamed the situation on my recklessness, but it was clear that nothing at all could get back the lost sum. Of course, the most consoling thought was that it was okay to lose something you may slowly earn back. 

Just when I mentally closed the file on the unsavoury incident, a phone call brought my attention back to the subject.

"Do you have the experience of losing your debit card?" the call centre  executive from a different bank that has my account asked. Without much preamble, she started explaining about the card protection policy the bank had introduced, which would compensate the subscriber in the event of debit card theft resulting in fraudulent transactions. The annual subscription was Rs 1,295…

I couldn't help the groan, but this, after all, was good news. The lost sum was unlikely to return, but there's some way to mitigate the risk many like me face carrying our hard-earned money in the form of a card.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

JEWISH CONTINUITY? VISIT ISRAEL

A visit to Israel, whether or not within the framework of Taglit, has the potential to strengthen Jewish identity.

American Jews can breathe a collective sigh of relief. At least that appears to be the conclusion of a recent demographic study conducted by the Steinhardt Social Research Institute at Brandeis University.

Released during this year's Association for Jewish Studies conference in Boston on December 19-21, the SSRI found there are now 6.5 million Jews in America – a whole million more than estimated in previous surveys and studies.

But it might be too early to celebrate. A North American Jewish Data Bank report released just weeks ago by the Hebrew University's Sergio DellaPergola, together with Arnold Dashefsky of the University of Connecticut and Ira Sheskin of the University of Miami, contradicts the SSRI's findings. DellaPergola et. al. estimate the number of American Jews in 2010 at only about 5,275,000. DellaPergola publicly contested the SSRI findings when they were presented in Boston by lead researcher Leonard Saxe, professor of Contemporary Jewish Studies at Brandeis University.

It is not our job to determine who is right in this clash of the Jewish demography titans. But it does seem hard to believe, as the SSRI would have us do, that American Jewry is multiplying faster than the 9.7 percent growth rate of the general US population over the past decade.

How could this occur at a time when over half of Jews intermarry and fertility rates are around 1.8 children per Jewish woman, lower than the 2.1 needed just to break even? 

Conversions to Judaism are not adding members to the tribe either, according to recent studies that show that there are more Jews leaving the faith than joining.

As the US remains in the throes of a major economic downturn, meanwhile, Jewish immigration to America from Israel or elsewhere is looking increasingly less attractive.

The Reform Movement's decision in 1983 to recognize as Jews those born to a Jewish father even if the mother is not Jewish might be contributing somewhat to Jewish population growth. In the Boston area, for instance, over half of young people who define themselves as Jewish are the product of mixed marriages.

But this phenomenon is probably restricted to cities like that one, which enjoy strong and affluent communities where it is attractive to be Jewish. Statistics show that the offspring of a mixed marriage are much more likely to ignore their Jewishness and to intermarry than those born to a Jewish couple. This is particularly the case when only the father is Jewish.

 

Meanwhile, even when Jews do marry other Jews, they do so at a much later stage in life than in the past, which has a negative impact on fertility. One-third of American Jewish women and more than half of men aged 25 to 34 are unmarried. As Brandeis University professor Sylvia Barack Fishman has shown in her studies of young Jewish Americans, many are looking to "find themselves" before committing to marriage. Successdriven, young Jews are uneasy about giving up opportunities before defining their own path. Large networks of singles make single-hood normative.

Debate over its actual numbers aside, American Jewry has been undergoing a demographic crisis for some time now. And that crisis will only worsen as Jews aged 65 or older, who represent 20% of American Jewry, and those slightly younger who are a product of the "baby boomer" era, gradually pass away.

Thus the community should not be lulled into complacency by the SSRI report. Tremendous resources should continue to be devoted to fighting negative demographic trends. Strengthening Jewish identity is a lifetime endeavor. It starts at the cradle, with education and life-cycle events that give meaning to Jewishness.

WE WOULD like to offer an additional bit of advice to American Jews: Visit Israel. A study conducted last year, also by Prof. Saxe, found that young Jews who have visited here in the past decade under the auspices of Taglit-Birthright, an organization that offers free 10-day trips to Israel, were 57% more likely to be married to a Jew than nonparticipants.

And those who were still single were 46% more likely than nonparticipants to view marrying a Jewish person as "very important."

A visit to Israel, whether or not within the framework of Taglit, has the potential to strengthen Jewish identity. Amid all the talk about Diaspora-based alternatives to political Zionism and the decline of ethnic nationalism, and beyond all the debate over specific Israeli policies, there is no substitute for witnessing firsthand the return of the Jewish people to its historical homeland and its ongoing endeavor to build a state that is both Jewish and democratic.

To experience the tremendous achievements, and to be awed by the challenges of sovereignty in this historic sliver of land – that adds up to a powerful incentive to care about staying Jewish

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

THE KIBBUTZ AS WORLD HERITAGE

 

Inscription of the kibbutz as a World Heritage Site will be proper recognition of the kibbutz, its place in the history of Zionism and the state and its uniqueness in the entire world.

 

The initiative to inscribe the kibbutz as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, as reported yesterday in Haaretz, deserves support and encouragement. This year, Israel is marking the centennial of the establishment of the first kibbutz and international recognition will express the uniqueness of kibbutz settlement, whose influence has extended beyond the borders of the country.

 

The kibbutz movement began during the Second Aliyah as a fascinating social experiment of equality and cooperative ownership of the means of production, consumption and education. Unique cooperative institutions were established, such as the general meeting, the dining room and the childrens' houses. Its founders saw themselves as a trailblazing social elite, combining Zionism, socialism and democracy.

 

During the years of the establishment and development of the state, kibbutzim played a key role in settling frontier regions, army service and leadership. Many of Israel's political and military leaders were kibbutz members or lived in a kibbutz for some period of time. In the West and in the developing world, the kibbutz was seen as a uniquely Israeli creation, which symbolized the Zionist revolution and making the desert bloom.

 

But the older and more established Israel became, the more difficulty the kibbutz had in dealing with the social

and political changes the country underwent. Its members were regarded as a separatist elite, who ignored their neighbors from the development towns and the new immigrant moshavim. Economic and employment possibilities in the city drew young people away from the kibbutz.

 

Right-wing governments undercut the support and subsidies that left-wing governments had given the movements that had settled the land. In the end, the economic crisis the kibbutzim experienced and the increasing social tendency toward individualism led to the collapse of the cooperative lifestyle. Like other institutions, many kibbutzim were privatized and became regular small communities.

 

Inscription of the kibbutz as a World Heritage Site will be proper recognition of the kibbutz, its place in the history of Zionism and the state and its uniqueness in the entire world. International recognition will also help rehabilitate and restore the historic buildings so that they will not be swallowed up in the momentum of real estate development.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

ONLY A STRONG POLITICAL CENTER WILL HALT ISRAEL'S RACIST FRENZY

AS IT IS TURNING INTO A MULTICULTURAL AND MULTICOMMUNAL SOCIETY, ISRAEL DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO ORGANIZE RELATIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS MINORITIES; THE RESULT IS REPULSIVE OUTBURSTS OF HATRED.

BY ARI SHAVIT

 

An evil wind is blowing in this country. First it was the rabbis who prohibited the renting of apartments to Arabs. Then it was Jewish youths who attacked Arab passersby. Then it was Jewish residents of Bat Yam who demonstrated for a Jewish Bat Yam. Then it was Jewish residents of Tel Aviv's Hatikva neighborhood who demonstrated against non-Jews.

 

A series of incidents that are ostensibly unrelated, and aren't even similar, have created a new atmosphere of xenophobia. They have turned Israel into a country that exudes a xenophobic stench. What's happening to us? Why have dark forces that always bubbled beneath the surface suddenly erupted into the city square? Why has racism reared its head?

 

The first explanation is political. Journalist Nahum Barnea, for example, claims that the debate about the territories is dead. When the leader of the right speaks of two states for two peoples, there's no longer anything to quarrel about. So instead of quarreling about Hebron and Nablus, they're quarreling about Umm al-Fahm and Tel Aviv's Central Bus Station. Instead of arguing about the foreigners who surround us, we're arguing about the foreigners who live among us.

 

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was the pioneer, but Interior Minister Eli Yishai understood the potential of the new battlefield. Both the nationalist right and the religious right are deliberately fanning the flames of hatred of foreigners. They are polluting the public discourse with concepts of the kind we haven't heard since Meir Kahane grazed in our fields.

 

The second explanation is social. In recent decades the Israeli margins have been abandoned. The development towns and disadvantaged neighborhoods have been erased from the map of our consciousness. Cities like Safed, Tiberias, Lod and Arad have been left to their own devices. The prosperous State of Tel Aviv has severed itself from the distress and suffering of the State of Israel.

 

As a result, large parts of the peripheral areas have collapsed. In many outlying cities the social fabric has disintegrated. When local pride and communal solidarity were lost, bitterness and despair grew. In such conditions it's easy to incite against the foreigners who enter the desperate cities and neighborhoods. It's easy to spread racist microbes in the sick social tissue. Those Israelis who have been distanced from the prosperity of north Tel Aviv have also been distanced from the liberalism of north Tel Aviv. Many of them have adopted alternative, dark and dangerous values.

 

The third explanation is related to the state. The Israel of the 21st century is different from the Israel of the 20th century. The ultra-Orthodox minority has grown sharply and is leaving the ghettos in which it was imprisoned. The Arab minority is also becoming stronger and is standing up for its rights. The Russian immigration has not evaporated, and to a large extent it is maintaining the characteristics of a consolidated community. Nor are the foreign workers a marginal and passing phenomenon, they are an inseparable part of the new human landscape.

 

As a result of all these changes, Israeli society is turning into a multicultural and multicommunal society. It does not know how to organize relations among the various minorities or between the minorities and the state. The inevitable result is friction, threats and mutual fears. The result is repulsive outbursts of hatred.

 

Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Tzipi Livni are committed to the idea of a Jewish and democratic state. They want to ensure both the survival and legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. But the virus of hatred in the streets is corrupting the Jewish and democratic state. The virus of hatred is making Israel look and sound like a benighted racist country.

 

In the absence of a strong and enlightened political center, the process of social disintegration has turned into a process of moral collapse. Lieberman, Shas and the delusionary rabbis of the right are threatening to bring down everything that Theodor Herzl, Ze'ev Jabotinsky and David Ben-Gurion believed in. They are pulling the carpet out from under the Jewish state that is supposed to grant equality to all its citizens and respect all its minorities. The time has come for both Netanyahu and Livni to come to their senses. Only joint and determined activity on their part will check the xenophobic frenzy and restore to Israel its enlightened face, which has been corrupted.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

THE REVOLT OF THE LOVERS

IF MORE YOUNG COUPLES HAD DECIDED TO GET MARRIED ACCORDING TO THEIR OWN WISHES, A REVOLUTION WOULD HAVE TAKEN PLACE - RELIGION WOULD HAVE BEEN SEPARATED FROM THE STATE.

BY YOSSI SARID

 

Now that they are undergoing a change of life, those rabbis have found rejuvenation. Matters will be determined not only according to their mouths but also according to other parts of their bodies. True, they are employed by the state, but it is the state that worships them. Only their flaming and boorish fanaticism is comparable to their racist nationalism - Don't touch our girls! In the name of the army of the Lord, and with the assistance of Benjamin Netanyahu, they dug a grave this week for "the army of the people," but not a mass grave for brethren.

 

Were I to be married in these times, I would not invite an ultra-Orthodox rabbi or one belonging to the National Religious stream to officiate. The rabbi who married us then, 47 years ago, was Rabbi Aryeh Levin, who was known as "the father of the prisoners" [for visiting members of the Jewish underground movements imprisoned by the British] and who was recognized also by secular people as having special attributes. There were not many like him - and there have remained but a very few.

 

The rabbis have been terrorizing us, saying that if we free ourselves of their tight grasp, we will be buried alive outside the fence and our names will go on the blacklist. The skies above have darkened, they have become very gray after being asked to spread a black canopy above our heads.

 

But the main thing is that we should not at all be afraid of these threats and of the terror because we are used to the scarecrow in rags. If "one people" means one language and a few common things - shared terms and values - then we are talking about at least two peoples. Light years and mountains of darkness separate us from each other.

 

Why should we care if two lists are moving around among us, and everyone in Israel has his own list, even before the argument over conversion has been settled? After all, it will never be settled, since anyway virgins from the holy communities have never married boys who are secular, and the hilltop youths have never sanctified the girls of Mahsom Watch in marriage.

 

If more young couples had decided to get married according to their own wishes, a revolution would have taken place - religion would have been separated from the state. Without the forced intervention of politicians and the High Court of Justice, it would have retreated. Israel would have been relieved of its enslavement to the rabbinate and would have achieved national and personal redemption in sovereignty. Life would have gained the upper hand over the dead letters, rather than their institutes of learning and their sermons. What do we have in common with them? Thank God, we were exempt from the presence of a stranger and his weird speech at our marriage ceremony. What would he have said, and what would all that have meant to us? We hereby declare a revolt of those who are in love!

 

Already today, many thousands of people are prepared to forgo their services according to the way the faith of Moses and Israel is seen in their eyes. I personally have married dozens of couples who preferred to use me as their "rabbi" - a matter of taste. To their regret and mine, I do not have the capability of registering their marriage in the Population Registry at the Interior Ministry. But to their delight and mine, they were spared the ways and inflections of aliens; the bride did not have to purify herself of defilement in a ritual bath; the bridegroom did not have to break a glass to strengthen himself and the memory of Jerusalem did not cause their tongues to cleave to the roofs of their mouths. They were given the right to speak about their good hopes.

 

How did the couples and their guests know that I was not pretending to be a rabbi, that I was not a shepherd and they were not the sheep of the flock? First, because I arrive at a wedding on time and no one has to wait for me. Second, because I do not take a fee, even though I am permitted to do so while the rabbis are not. And, third, because I speak to them more about their lives and their love in their new home and less about the destruction of the old tabernacle.

 

It is not only a wedding that can be held without ambassadors from above. It is true also of a circumcision where any surgeon will remove the foreskin while not every rabbi will remove what covers the heart. And it is possible also at a funeral where our integrity will precede us even if the members of the Hevra Kadisha (burial society ) are not walking in front.

 

This is all a matter of choice. If the majority of a minyan holds a festivity or an event of mourning according to its own way of thought, if it lives and dies according to its own beliefs and not according to their dictates, then no force on earth will trample on us as happens at a threshold, not even force majeure. And we will have been set free.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

MOST OF IT GOES TO THE GOVERNMENT

EVEN THOUGH NETANYAHU HAS PROMISED TO LOWER TAX RATES TO ENSURE GROWTH, IN REALITY HE IS DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE.

BY NEHEMIA SHTRASLER

 

Once, in the middle of the 1980s, Moshe Nissim was taken from behind the flock and anointed finance minister. He believed that the state must take its covetous hands out of the people's pockets, so he established the rule that "most of the pay for a man's work remains in his hands." He lowered income tax from 60 percent to 48 percent, slashed corporate tax and abolished many other taxes. The result was quick growth, a revenue increase and a budget surplus.

 

In 2003, we had a finance minister who thought along similar lines. He too cut spending and lowered taxes. He too achieved quick growth and a drop in unemployment. But today he is prime minister and has lost his courage. Today he decides according to opinion polls. He is being led instead of leading.

 

But the truth is that Benjamin Netanyahu has not forgotten the lessons he has learned. Deep inside he really does believe that cutting taxes is the best fuel for the growth engine. After all, only recently he said that "to grow, we must ensure that the tax rates are competitive. Therefore, to the extent that it is possible, the tax rates must be lowered." He spoke well, but he did the opposite.

 

Let's start with income tax. Netanyahu is proud of his long-term program under which income tax will drop gradually to 39 percent in 2016. Happy is he who believes that! Until we get to the promised paradise, we will wallow in hell, because despite the "long-term" program, Netanyahu has not lowered the marginal tax rate. He has left it at 45 percent and peppered it with a big lie, because Israel's real marginal tax rate is much higher. It's the highest in the world - 57 percent of incomes of between NIS 40,000 and NIS 80,000 per month.

 

In the middle of 2009, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz promised that this would merely be a temporary hike for a year and a half due to the world economic crisis. Today it's clear that the "temporary" hike is permanent and the "hump" that was supposed to be written off at the end of next week will not be removed in full, and maybe not at all. The result will be the continuation of the high and damaging marginal tax rate of 57 percent in the coming two years as well.

 

The other tax brackets are also quite ferocious. The tax on the middle class reaches an excessive 42 percent already at an income of NIS 13,000 per month. So how can Netanyahu say without blushing that "we must lower the tax rates" when he raises them?

 

The story with the value added tax is fairly similar. It was also raised by Steinitz during the world crisis, to 16.5 percent, with a promise that it would be lowered again to 15.5 percent in 2011. But next week the budget will be passed in the Knesset with a VAT of 16 percent; why not take another half a percent from the public if this is possible? And who cares if this harms poorer people? The important thing is that there will be another NIS 1.8 billion per year for pocket money.

 

And that's not all, because the government also sends its long arm into our pockets using a long list of indirect taxes. Starting in January, the excise tax on gasoline, for example, will go up by 20 agorot and the price will be NIS 7 per liter - the highest in the world. This is because the treasury wants another few billion to pay for the most inflated cabinet in the country's history (30 ministers and nine deputies ). It needs to pay the excessive manpower and expensive salary raises, and to fund the yeshivas and their students.

 

The treasury officials also think nothing of hitting out at the high-tech workers and the middle class, who get a company car for both work and leisure. Starting in January, the cost of using such a vehicle will rise by hundreds of shekels per month, which is an additional tax for all intents and purposes. And we must not forget the increased cigarette tax, the hike in the arnona (municipal property tax ) and the plan to impose a levy on water.

 

]All these tax hikes are detrimental to the economy. They make it less attractive to investors and workers and therefore harm growth and employment. They transfer too many resources to the politicians, so we see profligate waste in the public sector that is only getting worse. The heavy taxes take the spice out of the lives of the self-employed and the salaried workers in the private sector, who are the economy's growth driver. They work from morning to night but can't support their families properly because most of the pay for their work finds its way not into their pockets but into the government's.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

OBAMA: EARN YOUR NOBEL PRIZE

THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS LOCKED INTO FUTILITY, AND SO ARE THE PALESTINIANS. IN THE WARPED POLITICS OF PAIN, THE ONLY DEGREES OF FREEDOM ARE AMERICA'S.

BY TODD GITLIN

 

Like two punch-drunk fighters hanging onto each other, arms flopped around each other's necks, having made an intimate habit of their tiresome failures, the two belligerents are locked together in a static tableau. Failure is their shared way of life. They live and die by it. They talk about talking. They talk about talking about doing something different, but too many decades of stupidity, blindness, weakness and cowardice in varying proportions have brought them to the twisted embrace that they have come to consider normal. They clutch one another for dear life, these intimate antagonists, Israelis and Palestinians, who know each other so well and so little - each too weak to put an end to the agony, each too frightened to want a way out badly enough.

 

They are tediously, banally, wretchedly stuck. All hold their breath. Nothing moves.

 

Palestinians, the weaker party, talk about time running out. Even as the Palestinian Authority consolidates its quasi-state apparatus, settlements go on and on - declarations of confidence that facts on the ground will overwhelm wishes. In East Jerusalem, Dr. Nazmi al-Jubeh, who chairs the department of history at Birzeit University, told me recently that "only a limited time remains for a two-state solution. In two, three, five years, we will move to the next stage: one man, one vote." To some Israelis, such talk is bluster. To some, it can be read as a threat. To Palestinians, it's obvious.

 

Israelis, albeit with sad or stiff smiles, accommodate themselves to the occupation as if it were a permanent - unavoidable, even pleasant - state of affairs. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lives with, and by, the status quo. They rule. Their friends prosper. Their party adversaries are feeble, lost in fruitless maneuver. Only reason provides an incentive to do anything different (the demographically declining prospects of a Jewish state ), but reason's rewards are mental, not sufficiently visceral. To the winners among Israel's political class, the status quo might even be the best of all possible worlds.

 

Of course, not all Israelis find the status quo bearable. On a visit in October, I met many who were depressed, worn down by it - especially elders, people of my generation, who know how abnormal is this veneer of normality. They feel its eeriness, and the eeriness of denial in which their countrymen and -women are gripped. The Palestinians, of course, know the abnormality as abnormality, and feel the ground rumbling beneath their feet.

 

So how to break out of the shared prison? "There's nowhere else to look but the U.S.," Nazmi al-Jubeh told me. "The U.S. has to gamble."

 

What should Barack Obama do, I asked Saman Khoury, once a leader of the first intifada, now general manager and deputy chairman of the board of the Peace and Democracy Forum in East Jerusalem. "Be more courageous," he said. "For the sake of America, for the sake of the world. For the sake of progress, he should move with more vigor.

 

"We don't want them to rebuke Israel in front of us or the world," he added. "We don't want to humiliate Israel. But we want them to recognize that Israel must end the occupation."

 

In Ramallah, the Palestinian co-chair of the Geneva Initiative, Nidal Fuqaha, told me that, given manifest dangers of a confrontation with Iran, Israel would be foolish indeed if it failed to avail itself of a Palestinian alliance.

 

And on the other side of town, a weary retired Israeli agronomist told me: "Obama should come to Jerusalem, speak to the Knesset, offer American security guarantees in exchange for a two-state solution. Change Israeli public opinion as Sadat did. Change the game."

 

There are heaps of reasons for Obama to demur. He has, to put it mildly, his own political problems. He took a "shellacking" - to use his word - in the off-year elections. Talking over Netanyahu's head to the Israeli public would make enemies in both the Republican and Democratic parties. But the Israeli government is locked into futility, and so are the Palestinians in their own way. In the warped politics of mutually assured pain, the only degrees of freedom, as statisticians say, are America's. As a leader of Palestinians in Washington told me later, what Obama has to gain is nothing more or less than a historic achievement.

 

By ordinary calculations, the costs of an American initiative look more conspicuous than the benefits. On December 9, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seemed to renew the status quo when she reiterated that "negotiations between the parties is the only path that will succeed in securing their respective aspirations," while adding a diplomatic nudge: the U.S. "will push the parties to lay out their positions on the core issues ... will work to narrow the gaps asking the tough questions and expecting substantive answers ... will offer our own ideas and bridging proposals." Hardly enough to jolt anyone out of stagnation.

 

"Negotiations between the parties" is a prescription for nothing. Obama needs to do more than take a hand. He needs to take command. He has a prize to win - retroactively.

 

Todd Gitlin is a professor of journalism and sociology at Columbia University and the co-author, most recently, of "The Chosen Peoples: America, Israel, and the Ordeals of Divine Election."

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

NETANYAHU WON'T ATTAIN PEACE WITH RETURN TO 1967 BORDERS

NETANYAHU IS IN THE SAME POSITION AS BEGIN OF 1979. AND IF HE CAN RECOVER THE INITIATIVE - HE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF ACHIEVING PEACE.

BY MARCOS AGUINIS

 

A wave of recognition of the nonexistent "free and independent" State of Palestine is moving through Latin America and beyond. Though the precise meaning of this development is uncertain, it's clearly part of a strategy aimed at imposing a fait accompli. It is a dangerous strategy that will only amplify the climate of hostility, and push off prospects for a solid and long-lasting peace.

 

Such a nonexistent state will be based on reinstatement of the 1967 borders, which are not real borders at all, but rather armistice lines, and establishment of East Jerusalem as its capital. Such an unhealthy formula could reach the United Nations in the first half of 2011, where an automatic anti-Israel majority can be expected to vote for recognition.

 

Though the new State of Palestine will begin to function in a provisional capital in Ramallah and in the territory currently under its control, it will seek international support to force a total Israeli withdrawal, the redivision of Jerusalem and the evacuation of 300,000 settlers in Judea and Samaria, as well as Israel's acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. And when Israel fails to comply, it will stand accused of violating international law and find itself subject to sanctions.

 

Needless to say, the UN will not worry if Palestine is demilitarized or not, nor will it press for measures to control the influx of missiles that could hit the most strategic points in Israel.

 

One has to be blind or bereft of memory to fail to understand the imminent danger, and the passiveness of Israeli leaders' response is outrageous. They commit the sin of losing the initiative. The consequences will be dire.

 

Moshe Dayan, when asked in 1975 what Israel intended to do vis-a-vis the territories occupied in the Six-Day War, responded that "the decision is not to decide." Dayan apparently forgot that it was a timely decision in early June 1967 that saved Israel from a certain demise.

 

Had Israel followed that war with additional initiatives - e.g., the return of two-thirds of Sinai and a small strip of the Golan Heights, as well as creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state in part of the West Bank - the world would have supported it. But this did not happen. Later, when concessions were made, they were far larger.

 

In 1977, the initiative came from Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, and its impact meant that the hawkish politician Menachem Begin withdrew from Sinai to the last inch. To be sure, Israel's concessions were praised, and it looked as if peace with its other neighbors was inevitable. But this move also set a grave precedent, establishing the pre-1967 borders as the standard and ignoring the fact that borders in the Middle East are ever-changing. It was obvious that Syria would not settle for less than Egypt received. And now, the Palestinian are asking for similar terms.

 

]What initiatives should Israel take in the current situation, which we can characterize as one of emergency?

 

I believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is in the same position as Begin of 1979. And if he can recover the initiative and persuade world opinion that the division of Jerusalem and the re-establishment of "Auschwitz borders" (as Abba Eban referred to the pre-1967 lines ) are not the best options - he has a good chance of achieving peace.

 

Netanyahu should publicly ask President Obama to convene and participate an urgent meeting at Camp David, with the president and the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority. He should state his intention to turn over to the future Palestinian state significant parts of the territories, but with modifications that should benefit both parties, in terms of population and security concerns. He should commit to providing technological support to the new state in the areas of agriculture, electricity, water, health care and tourism.

 

At the same time, the premier must make it very clear that Israel will not allow the violation of freedom of worship, the desecration of holy sites or the re-division of Jerusalem.

 

The Palestinian state should be demilitarized, as was, for example, Costa Rica. Additionally, until a fraternal atmosphere is consolidated, the borders should be monitored by friendly countries and by Israel itself. I propose dividing the approximately 300,000 settlers into three groups (an idea originally raised by A.B. Yehoshua ), on the basis of a formula to be negotiated. The first group would move to various places within Israel. The second would remain in the new state - after all, if Israel's population is one-fifth Arab, then why can Palestine not incorporate 100,000 Jews? The third group, together with the areas where they live, should be annexed to Israel.

 

Peace should constitute a new era for the refugees of the 1948-49 war. The camps should be dismantled, and their residents transferred to areas within the new state. The rich Arab countries that pour fortunes into pharaonic projects, should commit themselves to create farms, factories and homes for these people: This would be the best "fertilizer" for the Palestinian state.

 

Netanyahu could also express the desire to see an Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian confederation, which would encompass the historical area of Palestine.

 

These are not the only initiatives required, but they can lead to others. The objective: to bring about the dawn of a new state that could live and prosper alongside Israel, without making endless claims or continuing to play the role of victim. To achieve this end, it is imperative that Israel's leaders take the steering wheel and start pressing the accelerator.

 

Dr. Marcos Aguisin is the best-selling author of more than 30 works of fiction and nonfiction in his native Argentina. He is the winner of many literary awards, and holds honorary doctorates from both Tel Aviv University and the Hebrew University.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

THEY DARED TO STAND FOR SOMETHING

THOUGH THERE'S NO DISPUTE THAT GAVISON AND KREMNITZER ARE BRILLIANT LEGAL MINDS, IT WAS PRECISELY THE PUBLIC RESPONSIBILITY THEY EVINCED THAT BLOCKED THEIR WAY TO THE HIGH COURT.

BY YUVAL ELBASHAN

 

Were the judicial system in Israel to conduct itself in a proper manner, in a spirit of true pluralism, then as of last week, when the Hebrew University bid farewell to its senior scholars Ruth Gavison and Mordechai Kremnitzer upon their retirement, we would be prefacing their names with "her honor" and "his honor" as justices of the Israeli Supreme Court. However, in Israel's judiciary authority, as in the civil service as a whole here, rare individuals of their sort are cast aside in favor of mediocre, well-connected candidates who make it a point never to annoy anyone and never to say anything - so as to get ahead. This is dangerous and sad. Not only for everyone who esteems these two individuals, but also for everyone who is fearful for the fate of this important institution and the rule of law in the young democracy that is still being built here.

 

Ostensibly, it was their "extremist" views that distanced them from the bench: Both Gavison and Kremnitzer dared to confront many of the nodes of power in Israel. She is in favor of "a Jewish state," he is "against government corruption," and both of them are in favor of "democracy and human rights." Fortunately for us, neither of them listened to the advice of former Supreme Court President Aharon Barak, and instead each went ahead and developed an agenda - that is, a complete worldview as to the way our lives together should be conducted in this complex country.

 

It was not, however, Gavison's and Kremnitzer's opinions that distanced them from the Supreme Court, but rather their deeds. From out of that same sense of public responsibility for the fate of the Zionist project, neither confined themselves to remaining behind the academic podium but rather girded their loins and embarked on public activity here and now. Instead of writing articles in English for professional journals that would remain inaccessible to the general public, they dared to recruit supporters for their opinions in the Israeli public, and therefore chose to write in the Hebrew mass media.

 

Furthermore, neither of them stopped at words, and both took action. They established organizations and institutes, they were members of many public committees and they contributed unflaggingly to the best of their abilities to rectifying the many ills that have spread in our society. Despite the personal price, both of them tried to implement in reality the vision they believed in and preached, and to this end conducted negotiations with various elements in Israeli society.

 

]In properly run places, as noted, their success in emerging from the kingdom of words and ideas - where they reigned well - to the land of action and realization, would have paved their way to the Supreme Court. This would have been because they would be role models for the rest of the legal community, because people of action are in short supply in the Supreme Court and because this would have enriched the court with justices who are familiar with Israeli society in all its complexity, not just from reading articles but also from flesh-and-blood encounters. And this would have helped the Supreme Court fulfill its function in a multifaceted democratic society.

 

]However, Israel will be Israel, and even though there is no dispute that the two are brilliant legal minds of international magnitude, it was precisely the public responsibility they evinced toward what happens here that made them "standard bearers," as in Aharon Barak's definition, and blocked their way to the High Court after the latter posited: "The depth of the cooling off should parallel the depth of the public involvement." Indeed, an embodiment of the absurd.

 

]Despite their retirement, both Kremnitzer and Gavison are still fit to be appointed to the Supreme Court. It is to be hoped that someone among the leaders of the judiciary system will rectify the mistake. Not for the benefit of Gavison or Kremnitzer, but rather for the benefit of us all.

 

Attorney Yuval Elbashan is a writer and social activist.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

VENI, VIDI, WIKI

WITH WIKILEAKS WE HAVE ANOTHER WAY TO CHECK AND BALANCE THE ENORMOUS TRUST WE PLACE IN GOVERNMENT, AND AN EXTRA ROW OF TEETH SHOULD THEY VIOLATE IT.

BY JARON GILINSKY

 

I looked up the word "wiki" the other day. It turns out the term was coined way back in 1994 by a Web developer named Ward Cunningham. Instead of informing my social network of what I had eaten for dinner the night before, or how I really feel about garden gnomes, I decided I'd post this new nugget of information as my new Facebook status.

 

"Wiki" comes from a Hawaiian word meaning "quick." I learned this from Wikipedia of course. Five of my friends commented within 10 minutes. Two shared it on their Facebook walls. I then tweeted the information, and my 43 followers, most of them family members, instantly consumed this information.

 

But what if the person who wrote that Wikipedia entry was mistaken? Now my entire social network would be deceived. And since my social network is connected to thousands of people I don't know - it's possible that the entire world is reading about the roots of "wiki" and assuming it is fact.

 

The way media content moves around the world today reminds me of the title of the great Errol Morris documentary: "Fast, Cheap, and Out of Control." We are now all potential writers, whistleblowers, editors, mudslingers and propagandists, with the tools to spew out bold truth, vicious lies and everything in between, from wherever we are to Waziristan, faster than you can say "wiki."

 

There is now a site called Wikituneup, where you can provide and/or receive tips on how to fix your car. There's also LyricWiki, where you can edit or add to the lyrics from your favorite album. There is even a satirical website called Dickipedia, where you can write about a person whom you feel deserves that epithet. And then, of course, there's WikiLeaks.

 

How I long for the days (about one-and-a-half years ago ) when spies transmitted top-secret information, when reporters discovered their own scoops, and media outlets actually printed original stories that ticked off governments. I can just imagine an unemployed secret agent and a disgruntled journalist scrolling through job listings on Craigslist, while sharing a whiskey in a bar.

 

]Spy: So, did you hear that the U.S. is secretly attacking Al-Qaida in Yemen?

 

]Journalist: Yeah, I did. Were you on a covert op there?

 

Spy: Nah, I read it on Wikileaks.

 

Journalist: Yeah, I figured (taking another gulp ).

 

And while WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been called everything from rapist to traitor to terrorist sympathizer to the James Bond of journalism to public enemy No. 1 (the only thing we know for sure is that he changes his hairstyle more often than David Beckham ) - the truth is that it is way too early to judge Assange and WikiLeaks.

 

To all his haters, I feel your pain.

 

He didn't have to identify the last few U.S. loyalists in Afghanistan, risking their lives. Or maybe you're opposed to his politics, which clearly pits him against the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. But as an American citizen, I feel like Assange has armed me with lots of important information. For example, it's nice to know that my tax dollars are funding a secret war against Al-Qaida in Yemen. I'm also glad to know about the disparity between the government's public and private accounts about the war in Afghanistan - or should I say Pakistan? Oh, and what about that horrific clip showing U.S. soldiers shooting down innocent civilians from a chopper in Iraq as if it were a video game? Didn't I help pay for that helicopter?

 

As rap music taught me some years ago, "Don't hate the player, hate the game."

 

The game, of course, is information warfare. And in this age of information, all the rules have changed. Facebook, Twitter and WikiLeaks are more than simple Internet platforms: They are new media weapons fighting government censorship and abuse.

 

Based on our collective experience with the nation-state system in the last century, WikiLeaks should be embraced by all. We just witnessed the bloodiest century ever, where meticulously planned atrocities were committed by governments shrouded in secrecy. It was a century in which the technology for mass murder was invented and perfected, but in which the tools for mass distribution and consumption of information were still in their infancy.

 

]Imagine if the plans of the Nazis could have been leaked to the entire world a few years before they went into effect. How long would the Cambodian genocide have lasted if live videos from the killing fields made their way out and were then tweeted across the globe?

 

With WikiLeaks we have another way to check and balance the enormous trust we place in government, and an extra row of teeth should they violate it.

 

It certainly does say a lot about our world when two new media techies were up for consideration for Time Person of the Year. But here's why I think Julian Assange deserved it over Mark Zuckerberg: While Zuckerberg has connected 500 million people and changed the way we socialize, what he's mostly done is help us transform our human interactions from real to virtual. One day, however, we will see WikiLeaks and its many clones as necessary evils as important as defense attorneys in the justice system.

 

Yes, sometimes defense attorneys help a guilty man will go free. Yes, WikiLeaks may one day release deleterious information. But the alternative is far, far scarier.

 

WikiLeaks does not mean the end of secrecy, it just means that secrecy got a little more difficult. Nor does it mean total transparency, for the best-kept secrets - and hopefully those unfit for public consumption - will endure because of the competence of those entrusted to preserve them.

 

As a citizen of the world, I personally will sleep better at night knowing there exists a platform that gives ordinary people the ability to release information that could help save other ordinary people from government- or corporate-induced calamities.

 

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******************************************************************************************THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

CHINA AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

 

¶For years, Chinese officials have promised to improve their protection of intellectual property. But the infringement of copyrights, patents and trade secrets has, in many instances, gotten worse. Last week, they made some new promises. While we welcome China's willingness to utter commitments in this area, we remain skeptical of its ability or desire to protect foreign innovation.

 

¶At the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Washington, Chinese officials promised better protection for foreign software. They promised not to discriminate against foreign intellectual property in government procurement. They even agreed to keep talking about improving how they award patents, a crucial step to prevent the proliferation of parasitic patents of little merit.

 

¶Yet for all the new agreements, stringent protection of foreigners' intellectual property is at odds with China's development strategy. Foreign companies operating in China complain that Beijing views the appropriation of foreign innovations as part of a policy mix aimed at developing domestic technology.

 

¶Bootleg copies of the "Dark Knight" and Shenzen sweatshops churning out fake Louis Vuitton bags are only part of the problem. Last March, the United States International Trade Commission banned imports of cast steel railway wheels made by the Chinese group Tianrui. Tianrui had hired nine employees from the Chinese licensee of Amsted Industries of Chicago, a maker of railway parts. They came with an armful of trade secrets that allowed Tianrui to muscle into the business.

 

¶This type of intellectual property theft is increasingly common, according to American companies operating in China. In fact, they say, it is tacitly supported by Beijing, and includes forcing foreigners to disclose their technology in order to gain contracts.

 

¶China's new antimonopoly laws would allow compulsory licensing of foreign technologies in some cases and require foreign companies that wanted to merge with or buy a Chinese company to transfer technology to China. Several foreign companies have found themselves competing against Chinese firms using a slight variation of the foreign technology.

 

¶In 2005, the China National Railway Signal and Communication Corporation invited Germany's Siemens to join in building trains for the Beijing-Tianjin high-speed railway. Most of the technology came from Siemens, which trained 1,000 C.N.R. technicians in Germany. But most of the trains were built in China. For the next project — the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail — the Ministry of Transportation decided it wanted domestic technology, and C.N.R. bumped Siemens out. CSR Corporation, another Chinese train builder, did the same with Kawasaki Heavy Industries of Japan.

 

¶China's attempt to move up the tech ladder is natural. Many countries in history have pursued technological progress by first trying to piggyback on foreign inventions — tweaking and improving — before blazing their own trails. Still, intellectual property misappropriation cannot be a government policy goal, especially in a country the size of China, which can flood world markets with ill-begotten high-tech products.

 

¶The United States has made some progress at the World Trade Organization against the theft of intellectual property in China. But it must be much more vigilant and aggressive.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

REQUIEM FOR A DREAM

 

The defeat of the Dream Act in the lame-duck session slams the lid for this Congress on any meaningful repair of the immigration system, but that should not be the end of it for President Obama and his administration.

 

Mr. Obama's strategy of doubling-down on border and workplace enforcement to gain support for legalizing some undocumented immigrants has failed. And the next Congress will be harsher on immigration than this one. But if Mr. Obama really feels the passion anddisappointment he expressed about steps like the Dream Act, he will not be helpless. He has an array of options to make piecemeal repairsto a system that everyone admits is broken.

 

The Dream Act was the sort of idea both sides of the immigration fight should embrace. It would have given a few hundred thousand young people — brought here as children, educated here, often at public expense, and then set adrift after high school — a chance to better themselves and contribute to this country as soldiers and college students. But it was too much for a hard-line minority in Congress, and it was killed by filibustering Republicans who want no legalization ever.

 

Mr. Obama doesn't need Congress to curb the Department of Homeland Security, which is deporting at a record pace many of the very people he says deserve a chance to stay. That means reforming Secure Communities, a fingerprinting program that will soon turn every local police department in the country into an arm of Immigration and Customs Enforcement — a looming disaster for public safety and good policing. He can tell border agents to stop harassing and scaring innocent people.

 

He can halt deportations of students who would have qualified for the Dream Act, under the time-honored practice of deferred action for those who pose no threat. He can have the Labor Department redouble efforts to expose wage-and-hour violations endemic in the immigrant workplace.

 

Perhaps most important, he can stop enabling the Republicans who are itching to make things worse. He can defend against the propaganda that all illegal immigrants are by definition a class of criminals instead of people trapped in a web of bad laws, misguided policies and squandered potential. And he can repudiate the myth that all America's immigration problems will be solved at the Mexican border.

 

It won't be easy. Mr. Obama and the Democrats have already meekly ceded much of that argument, by pushing through billions for border and workplace enforcement without winning anything in return. As a candidate, Mr. Obama lavishly distributed I.O.U.'s promising a better way. He still owes.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

A GOOD BANKRUPTCY LAW

 

Gov. David Paterson put New Yorkers first and the banking and debt collection industries second when he signed a bill that increases the value of property that people can retain when they declare bankruptcy or when creditors win judgments against them.

 

This sensible new law puts New York on a par with the rest of the nation. It allows people who hit hard times to keep at least the roof over their heads and the modest car that gets them to and from work.

 

New York already has a law that shields some debtor assets from creditors and bankruptcy trustees. But the actual dollar amounts in many provisions had not been updated since the 1980s, which means that the protections had seriously been eroded by inflation. Introduced by State Senator Eric Schneiderman, a Democrat of Manhattan, the new law increases the homestead exemption from $50,000 to either $75,000, $125,000 or $250,000, depending on the county of residence.

 

People who find themselves in deep financial trouble would also be able to keep one cellphone and one computer. The new law raises the value of an exempted automobile from $2,400 to $4,000 or $10,000 for a disabled debtor. The exemption would not apply in cases where the debt being enforced is for child support, spousal support, maintenance or alimony.

 

The Bloomberg administration argued that the automobile exemption would prevent them from towing some cars, which would make it impossible to collect outstanding traffic fines. The Senate responded by adding language that would void the exemption in cases where the municipality is the creditor. Members of the assembly have promised to do the same at the start of the next legislative session.

 

The new law will go a long way toward ensuring that bankruptcy or debt collection do not strip people of all they own, turning them into wards of the state.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

ANOTHER CHRISTMAS IN KABUL

BY CAROL GIACOMO

 

KABUL, Afghanistan

 

When, and under what conditions, American troops can leave Afghanistan depends in no small measure on Lt. Gen. William Caldwell IV, who is spending a second Christmas in Kabul away from his three young children. As the leader of the NATO training mission, he is charged with fielding a competent army and national police force that (in theory) will eventually replace American and NATO troops.

 

Like much of what is happening in Afghanistan, this is a blurry picture. President George W. Bush never invested the resources to build a serious Afghan security force, so General Caldwell had minimal time to make maximum effort when he took over one year ago.

 

His team has made impressive gains. The Afghan Army grew from 97,000 to 138,000 troops, the national police expanded from 95,000 to 120,000 officers and an incipient air force is taking shape. They made salaries more competitive and boosted recruitment.

 

But they are still short 700 trainers. (Maybe Canada will fill the gap.) They are still losing too many trained Afghan forces to attrition. And they need to quickly produce more officers. They are also struggling to provide basic reading skills to the 86 percent of recruits who are illiterate. If Afghans can't read maps, General Caldwell told me, they can't tell the Americans where they are if they need emergency medical evacuation or airstrikes.

 

NATO forces, backed by 30,000 extra American troops and Afghan units, are making progress in jointly clearing critical provinces in the Taliban heartland.

 

During a visit by Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a group of journalists last week to Camp Hansen near Marja in Helmand Province and Forward Operating Base Wilson in Kandahar Province, American commanders spoke in detail about repelling the insurgents and extending local control. Still, the hundreds of American troops at these remote outposts are taking fire daily.

 

Much has been made of the significant and necessary escalation in C.I.A. drone attacks — 50 since September compared with 60 in the previous eight months across the border in Pakistan where Al Qaeda and Taliban escape to their safe havens. "If they couldn't get from Pakistan, it would be all over," said Col. David Furness of the Marines. That is overly optimistic, but Pakistan's refusal to close down the sanctuaries is a serious weak spot in the war effort.

 

Every aspect of a comprehensive strategy, not just the killing and the training, must be ramped up, and Gen. David Petraeus, the top American and NATO commander in Afghanistan, knows it. NATO troops are creating opportunities for improved local governance as well as long-neglected water and agricultural projects, schools and health clinics so Afghans do not ally with the Taliban. So is the American-financed, Afghan-run National Solidarity Program that has created self-governing councils in 30,000 villages and 50,000 local projects.

 

But their efforts are undermined by President Hamid Karzai's corrupt government, which too often fails to send people to run local and district government offices and appointed corrupt or inept provincial and district governors. Also, the government's lack of a mechanism to adjudicate land disputes leaves people reliant on Taliban religious courts that dispense speedy, popular justice.

 

NATO's decision to keep fighting until 2014 — when Afghans are supposed to take over security responsibilities — seems to have changed the calculus in one way. All sides now know that the allied forces are staying around. The militants are under pressure and "a platform for success has been created," said Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister who advises Mr. Karzai.

 

We hope he's right. But five days in Afghanistan offered reminders of the overwhelming challenges that remain. Even American military commanders say the recent gains are reversible. They won't know until the spring or summer whether they can be made permanent.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

THE HUMBUG EXPRESS

BY PAUL KRUGMAN

 

Hey, has anyone noticed that "A Christmas Carol" is a dangerous leftist tract?

 

I mean, consider the scene, early in the book, where Ebenezer Scrooge rightly refuses to contribute to a poverty relief fund. "I'm opposed to giving people money for doing nothing," he declares. Oh, wait. That wasn't Scrooge. That was Newt Gingrich — last week. What Scrooge actually says is, "Are there no prisons?" But it's pretty much the same thing.

 

Anyway, instead of praising Scrooge for his principled stand against the welfare state, Charles Dickens makes him out to be some kind of bad guy. How leftist is that?

 

As you can see, the fundamental issues of public policy haven't changed since Victorian times. Still, some things are different. In particular, the production of humbug — which was still a somewhat amateurish craft when Dickens wrote — has now become a systematic, even industrial, process.

 

Let me walk you through a case in point, one that I've been following lately.

 

If you listen to the recent speeches of Republican presidential hopefuls, you'll find several of them talking at length about the harm done by unionized government workers, who have, they say, multiplied under the Obama administration. A recent example was an op-ed article by the outgoing Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who declared that "thanks to President Obama," government is the only booming sector in our economy: "Since January 2008" — silly me, I thought Mr. Obama wasn't inaugurated until 2009 — "the private sector has lost nearly eight million jobs, while local, state and federal governments added 590,000."

 

Horrors! Except that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, government employment has fallen, not risen, since January 2008. And since January 2009, when Mr. Obama actually did take office, government employment has fallen by more than 300,000 as hard-pressed state and local governments have been forced to lay off teachers, police officers, firefighters and other workers.

 

So how did the notion of a surge in government payrolls under Mr. Obama take hold?

 

It turns out that last spring there was, in fact, a bulge in government employment. And both politicians and researchers at humbug factories — I mean, conservative think tanks — quickly seized on this bulge as evidence of an exploding public sector. Over the summer, articles and speeches began to appear highlighting the rise in government employment and issuing dire warnings about what it portended for America's future.

 

But anyone paying attention knew why public employment had risen — and it had nothing to do with Big Government. It was, instead, the fact that the federal government had to hire a lot of temporary workers to carry out the 2010 Census — workers who have almost all left the payroll now that the Census is done.

 

Is it really possible that the authors of those articles and speeches about soaring public employment didn't know what was going on? Well, I guess we should never assume malice when ignorance remains a possibility.

 

There has not, however, been any visible effort to retract those erroneous claims. And this isn't the only case of a claimed huge expansion in government that turns out to be nothing of the kind. Have you heard the one about how there's been an explosion in the number of federal regulators? Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute looked into the numbers behind that claim, and it turns out that almost all of those additional "regulators" work for the Department of Homeland Security, protecting us against terrorists.

 

Still, why does it matter what some politicians and think tanks say? The answer is that there's a well-developed right-wing media infrastructure in place to catapult the propaganda, as former President George W. Bush put it, to rapidly disseminate bogus analysis to a wide audience where it becomes part of what "everyone knows." (There's nothing comparable on the left, which has fallen far behind in the humbug race.)

 

And it's a very effective process. When discussing the alleged huge expansion of government under Mr. Obama, I've repeatedly found that people just won't believe me when I try to point out that it never happened. They assume that I'm lying, or somehow cherry-picking the data. After all, they've heard over and over again about that surge in government spending and employment, and they don't realize that everything they've heard was a special delivery from the Humbug Express.

 

So in this holiday season, let's remember the wisdom of Ebenezer Scrooge. Not the bit about denying food and medical care to those who need them: America's failure to take care of its own less-fortunate citizens is a national disgrace. But Scrooge was right about the prevalence of humbug. And we'd be much better off as a nation if more people had the courage to say "Bah!"

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

GOOD NEIGHBORS

BY TÉA OBREHT

 

THE other car is already there when Jana pulls into the driveway. At first, she thinks it is her father's car, thinks maybe he's late leaving for the factory, and she wonders where she can stash the cake — the overpriced, holly-sprigged log she finally brought home to surprise her grandmother — before he finds it. But then she sees the woman on the porch. The woman is wearing a red coat, hat pulled down over her ears. Jana does not recognize her.

 

Snow has been falling for days, swelling in mud-tinged banks between the driveways. Jana watches the woman on the porch through the warm fog of her own breath. The woman hasn't noticed Jana's car. She rings the doorbell, then tries the handle. She puts her hands on her hips. With the woman's red coat at the top of the stairs, the bright line of wreaths and garlands along the block is unbroken. She walks to the end of the porch and looks around the corner of the house, leaning into the tight, snow-laden alley. Jana thinks of what the woman will see back there: the laundry line; her grandmother's broken wheelchair, sold to them by the previous tenant; empty boxes left over from their recent move in; and, somewhere among them, rolls of wrapping paper Jana has been letting the upstairs neighbor hide from his children.

 

The woman tries the doorbell one more time. Jana can't decide if the woman is a hospital bill collector, if that's how it's done here in America, if they've finally progressed from phone calls to home visits. She wonders if she could have prevented this by telling her father about the grandmother's pneumonia and their trip to the emergency room six months ago. The woman opens the screen door and knocks, and then lets it snap shut. Then she turns around and sees Jana in the car, and breaks into a smile. For the first time, Jana notices the basket in the crook of her arm.

 

Jana kills the engine and gets out as the woman comes down the steps, still smiling. She almost forgets the cake box on the seat, and by the time she has reached in to get it, the woman is close, hovering with the basket.

 

The woman smiles in greeting. Her lipstick is caked with the cold. "Do you live here?" she says.

 

Jana shuts the door, missing the insulating hum of the engine, and says nothing. The woman's basket is enormous, its contents crammed tight, wrapped in cellophane and tied off with a red bow. Inside, Jana sees cans of soup, tins of cocoa, a sticky bread loaf of some kind.

 

"Do you live here?" the woman repeats.

 

Eight months in America, and Jana's accent is as heavy as it was back home. She doesn't want this woman to hear it.

 

The woman continues smiling. "I'm from Holiday Helpers, here to deliver an order for this house?" She phrases it as a question. "There's a card," the woman says.

 

The card is a folded square suspended from the bow. To open it, Jana would have to say she lives here. But she doesn't want to, doesn't trust the woman or her endless smile.

 

Then the woman is flipping the card open with her fingertips. "Are you Jana Andrick?" she wants to know. Andrich.

Then Jana remembers the television ad. She remembers seeing it on the tiny screen of the department store stockroom television, most late nights since October. The Holiday Helpers ad featured a montage of smiling people handing baskets just like this one across porches to other smiling people. There was a number on the screen in big yellow letters, and the announcer said, "This holiday season, give to someone in need."

 

The edges of the woman's mouth are beginning to turn blue. She presses the basket to her side, and through the cellophane Jana sees a packet of muffin mix and some scattered caramels. The woman is still looking at the card, waiting for Jana to admit she lives here. "Doesn't say who it's from."

 

She holds the basket out to Jana, but Jana steps back. She holds up the cake box. "Delivery," she says, to buy time. The woman's face changes as if she understands, as if suddenly they are on the same side of something.

 

"What service?" the woman wants to know. "What company?" She says it loudly — she's caught Jana's accent. Jana makes up a company name. The woman has never heard of it, of course, but she and Jana walk up the steps to the porch and look through the window.

 

Ice has filmed over the dirt in the corners of the windowpanes. With her hand across her forehead, Jana can see into the darkened living room. She has never seen it this way — the still-packed boxes lined up against the rear wall, her father's empty armchair with his breakfast plate on the seat, the stuffing coming out of the sofa, which is tilted over its broken leg — and she wants to excuse it. But the woman could still be a collector, so Jana says nothing.

 

The bedroom door opens and Jana's grandmother comes out, hair nap-tufted. If she looks up, she'll see them and come to the door, and Jana will have to explain. But without her hearing aid, Jana's grandmother is almost deaf, and she goes down the hallway, fastening her robe, while the Holiday Helper, animated by her appearance, pounds uselessly on the window, shouting, "Excuse me — Merry Christmas!"

 

The grandmother goes into the bathroom. Jana's breath smears the glass again.

 

"Bad hearing," Jana says, straightening. The woman looks disappointed.

 

Jana looks across the street to where a light-wired Santa and reindeer are all grinning maniacally on the Grishams' roof. She wonders if the basket is from them. Last week, after her grandmother got excited watching the Grishams' display go up, Jana stopped by the craft store and stood among the rows of glitter-dusted ornaments and holly garlands, and tried to pick out a bow for their door. She felt defeated just standing there, felt that all the choices were there to trick her into making some terrible mistake. And then there was her father, reminding her they have no money, nothing to celebrate. When a bored young woman in a blue apron came up to help her, Jana turned and left. She had opted for the cake instead. A cake you could eat. Once eaten, there wouldn't be any evidence of frivolity hanging around the house.

 

The woman has decided to leave her basket on the porch. "She'll find it when she comes out," she says of Jana's grandmother, and props the screen door with the basket. Then she holds her hands out for the cake box, and Jana has no choice but to give it to her.

 

The woman looks it over. "No card?" she says, smiling.

 

Jana shrugs and tries a smile. The woman probably knows she's been lying.

 

"I wonder who sent all these things," the woman says, putting the box down behind the basket. "Good neighbors, probably," the woman says. Her teeth are perfectly white. She could still be a bill collector. But she turns the basket around so that the big red bow is facing the door, so that it will be the first thing Jana's grandmother sees when she comes out. While she signs the delivery timecard, it occurs to Jana that she will have to complete the lie, get into her car and pull away, perhaps drive all the way down to the bottom of the street and out of the neighborhood.

 

The woman goes down the porch steps. Jana follows her. Crossing the drive, Jana looks into the woman's car and sees Holiday Helpers baskets crowding the back seat. The woman opens the car door and turns to her, smiles. "Well, Merry Christmas."

 

"Merry Christmas," says Jana. She has no choice but to get back in the car and pull out of the driveway. The woman's engine sputters to life. Jana sits still and watches her back up onto the road. When the woman pulls up alongside, Jana puts the car in park and takes a notepad out of her glove compartment. She sits with the engine running and pretends to write something. The woman's car moves forward.

 

At the stop sign, the woman turns in her seat and waves. Jana waves back with her notepad. Then the woman's car swings onto the road and she is gone.

 

Jana watches the road for a long time. A minivan with a tree strapped to the roof goes by, and then Mrs. Grisham's gray car comes up the slope and pulls into her garage. But the woman in the red coat does not come back.

 

When Jana does get out of the car, the basket will still be there. It will have to be accepted, taken inside. It will have to be explained to her father, who will not want it, will not want its charity, unless she unpacks it right away, hides the tins and packages around the kitchen so he will not find them, or not know what they are if he does.

 

And the bow. The bow will have to go in the trash. Or she will put it up, put it up on the door for just a little while, take it down before he gets home. Or maybe, with all the other wreathed doors, he won't notice it, won't ask where it came from, won't make her refuse kindness. There are, after all, good neighbors somewhere along the block, waiting for her to carry their kindness inside.

 

Téa Obreht is the author of the forthcoming novel "The Tiger's Wife."

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

THE SIDNEY AWARDS

BY DAVID BROOKS

 

¶I try not to fall into a rut, but every December I give out Sidney Awards for the best magazine essays of the year, and every year it seems I give one to Michael Lewis. It would be more impressive if I was discovering obscure geniuses, but Lewis keeps churning out the masterpieces.

 

¶This year it was a Vanity Fair piece called "Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds." His large subject is the tsunami of cheap credit that swept over the world and "offered entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge."

 

¶His specific subject is Greece, a country that plundered its public institutions while spoiling and atomizing itself. The Greek national railroad earned 100 million euros (about $131.4 million) in revenues each year, but had a wage bill of 400 million euros plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The country reported a budget deficit of 3.7 percent a year, but that was inaccurate. It was really about 14 percent of G.D.P.

 

¶Lewis's genius was to show how the moral breakdown spread into one of the most remote institutions on earth, a 1,000-year-old monastery cut off by water, culture and theology that, nonetheless, managed to put itself at the center of the great plundering.

 

¶If you go to a college classroom you'll likely notice that the women tend to dominate the conversation. In an essay called "The End of Men" in The Atlantic, Hanna Rosin gathers the evidence, showing how women are beginning to dominate the information age.

 

¶At one clinic where parents are able to choose the sex of their babies, 75 percent choose girls. Three women earn college degrees for every two earned by men. Of the 15 job categories projected to grow the most in the next decade in the U.S., all but two are predominantly filled by women.

 

¶Rosin describes studies showing that corporations that have women in senior management perform better than male-dominated competitors. She visits admissions officers who are hunting for qualified boys. At a support group for men behind on their child support, the leader writes "$85,000" on the board. "That's her salary," he barks. Then he writes "$12,000" and shouts: "This is your salary. Who's the damn man? Who's the man now?"

 

¶In Fortune, Beth Kowitt had an eye-popping piece called "Inside the Secret World of Trader Joe's." The funky, gourmet grocery chain is actually owned by the secretive Albrecht family from Germany. Many of the products are made by large corporations — the pita chips are made by a division of PepsiCo and the yogurt is actually made by Danone Stonyfield Farm.

 

¶The company has brilliantly seized on the growing sophistication of American food tastes. It offers a much more limited selection than its rivals, thus reducing the anxiety of choice. It has an efficient supply chain (the Tasty Bite Punjab Eggplant that sold for $3.39 at Whole Foods in Manhattan sold for more than a dollar less at the Trader Joe's in Stamford, Conn.). It fosters community and makes shopping a form of belonging.

 

¶You may know James Franco as the actor who played Peter Parker's best friend in the Spider-Man movies, or the lead character in the mountain-climbing movie, "127 Hours." While pursuing a full-time acting career, he earned a bachelor's degree at U.C.L.A. and then enrolled simultaneously in four graduate programs — New York University for film, Columbia for writing, Brooklyn College for writing and Warren Wilson College for poetry. He's also pursuing a Ph.D. in English at Yale and taking classes at the Rhode Island School of Design. His fiction has been published in Esquire (his first book-length collection was published by Scribner). His first solo art show was at the Clocktower Gallery in New York City.

 

¶Sam Anderson superbly captures the everythingness of Franco's life in a New York Magazine piece called "The James Franco Project." It is a story of manic labor masking the man's enigmatic core.

 

¶Last year, William Deresiewicz delivered a countercultural lecture at West Point. He told the cadets how to combat the frenetic, achievement-obsessed system in which they were raised. That speech was subsequently published in The American Scholar as "Solitude and Leadership." It's about how to be a leader, not an organization man.

 

¶Darin Wolfe wrote a piece in American Scientist, called "To See for One's Self," about the decline of the autopsy. Autopsies frequently reveal major diagnostic errors and undiscovered illnesses, yet the number of autopsies performed each year is plummeting. Medical training no longer relies on this hands-on exercise. Doctors are afraid of information that might lead to malpractice suits. Medicare won't pay for them. A form of practical inquiry is being lost.

 

¶Everybody's worried about the future of print journalism, but this has been an outstanding year for magazines. On Tuesday, I'll offer more suggestions for holiday reading.

 

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TIMES FREE PRESS

OPINION

UNEASY KOREAN PENINSULA

 

There is little peace and no goodwill on the Korean Peninsula as Christmas Day approaches. That, unfortunately, is generally the case in that corner of the world, but the situation is especially perilous this holiday season. Talk of war between North and South Korea is on the rise and diplomats around the world clearly are concerned that the current rhetoric is far more dangerous than the normal sniping and military posturing that marks the everyday relationship between the nations.

 

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a long-time U.S. envoy to the region, said the region remained a "tinderbox" after a visit earlier this week to the North Korean capital. "There is still "enormous tension, enormous mistrust" there, he said. That's a worrisome assessment from a diplomat whose experience gives him a unique understanding of the region and whose views often view official U.S. policy in the area.

 

Richardson's somber assessment is mirrored by a Chinese counterpart. "The current situation remains highly complicated and sensitive," said a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry. That view, from North Korea's sole major ally underscores the volatility in the region. Armed conflict is a possibility.

 

Both North and South Korea appear ready to engage in open combat. After a deadly series of events in recent months — including a naval skirmish, artillery fire from the north that killed several South Korean civilians and other provocations — the South has beefed up its forces and says it will retaliate unsparingly if attacked again. The response from the North was far from conciliatory. An official there threatened a "sacred" nuclear war if his country was attacked.

 

The possibility that North Korea might use nuclear weaponry is what worries military leaders and diplomats around the world. South Korea has superior firepower and technology, but North Korea is thought to have enough weaponized plutonium to make a few atomic bombs and has often expressed a willingness to employ them. Talks to dismantle North Korea's nuclear armament program fell apart last year.

 

The international effort to lower the threat level in the Koreas will continue over the holiday. U.S. diplomats have urged their South Korean allies to act responsibly and to avoid provocation. China, it seems, has done the same with North Korea,. That's a welcome stance. Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is far too dependent on China to totally ignore such a request.

 

War, of course, will not resolve the conflict on the Korean peninsula. A sustained diplomatic effort is far more likely to reduce the current crisis and to produce a useful resolution of long-standing regional issues that have global implications.

 

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TIMES FREE PRESS

OPINION

WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT!

CHRISTMAS IS ABOUT CHRIST. OR IT IS ABOUT NOTHING.

 

Amid the varied customs and colorful traditions of the season, there are many non-facts mixed with the very important facts. We need to know the difference.

 

The birth of Jesus Christ was not a "current" matter. It went back to the very beginning. Some people claim that only "seeing is believing." For many years, there were specific prophecies about the coming of the Christ child. Some believed. Some did not. But then it happened — just as prophets, revealing God's plan hundreds of years in advance, had said.

 

Dec. 25

 

The date Dec. 25 has no special significance in itself. For more than three centuries, the birth of Jesus Christ was celebrated at various dates. The actual time of His birth has not been established.

 

The ancient Romans had a December feast to Saturn, a Saturnalia. About the middle of the Fourth Century, Bishop Liberius and Christians at Rome who wanted no part in the pagan observance began to note the birth of Jesus Christ in that period, on Dec. 25. Christians in Egypt celebrated on Jan. 6, and many of the Eastern churches still do.

 

]It is doubted that Jesus was born in December. According to the Scriptures, the shepherds were in the fields, a common practice in summer and fall but not in December. Further, there was no room in the inn for Mary and Joseph, but the stable, probably a hollowed-out cave in a hillside, was vacant because the sheep and cattle were out grazing. That indicates an earlier month of the year.

 

Not 'A.D. 1'

 

Nor was Jesus born in "A.D. 1." A Roman monk named Dionysius Exiguus made calculations in the Sixth Century Anno Domini (A.D. — "in the year of the Lord") relating the calendar to the birth of Christ. He apparently was not very good with his history and arithmetic and made an error in his calculations.

 

The Bible tells us that Jesus was born when Herod was king in the Holy Land. Rome was ruled by Caesar Augustus. Quirenius was governor of Syria. All of these historical facts of secular history indicate the time of the actual birth of Christ was somewhere between 9 B.C. and 6 B.C., a period in which a tax order went out, as the Bible relates.

 

Furthermore, the Bible tells that after the wise men came to Herod, he ordered the slaughter of all male children under the age of two in Bethlehem, a bestial effort to wipe out One Who had been prophesied would be king. History tells us that Herod died in 4 B.C., meaning the child-slaughter order preceded that date. Apparently, the birth of Jesus was within two years before the death order, since children under two years old were killed.

 

Oct. 3, 7 B.C. theory

 

Johannes Kepler, noted German astronomer, suggested the possibility that the birth date of Christ was Oct. 3, 7 B.C., since there was a conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter in the proper position at that time to appear to the wise men as an unusually bright star. Others offer different theories.

 

Whatever the date, the prophecy of the coming of Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior of mankind is very old.

 

]'In the beginning'

 

The Bible begins, Genesis 1:1: "In the beginning God ..." And in the New Testament, in the book of John, Chapter 1, verses 1 and 14 declare: "In the beginning was the Word and the Word was with God, and the Word was God ... and the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us ..."

 

What?

 

Many Christians are fascinated by the early prophecy contained in Genesis 3:15. Sin had entered God's creation, for the serpent (the devil) had tempted and Adam and Eve had yielded, being disobedient to God. It was in that situation that God promised the serpent: "And I will put enmity between thee and the woman, and between thy seed and her seed; it shall bruise thy head, and thou shalt bruise his heel." These unusual words have been interpreted as a promise of the defeat of sin through the virgin birth of a Savior — the "seed" of a woman — with the Savior inflicting a fatal head wound on sin, but in the process suffering death on the cross. Sin was overcome by this payment, followed by resurrection into life.

 

'I shall see him'

 

As the children of Israel were on their exodus from Egyptian captivity, they stopped in the land of Moab, much to the chagrin of the king of Moab, who was named Balak. He looked fearfully upon the Israelites in their camp spreading over an area the size of the valley Chattanooga occupies. Faced with so many foreigners in his country, Balak called upon the prophet Balaam to curse them, offering great rewards of material things and personal prestige. But Balaam, overcoming personal temptation only through guidance by the Lord, refused to issue the curse. Instead, he spoke these words of prophecy, recorded in Numbers 24:17: "I shall see him, but not now: I shall behold him, but not nigh: there shall come a Star out of Jacob, and a Sceptre shall rise out of Israel, and shall smite the corners of Moab, and destroy all the children of Sheth."

 

Here is prophetic announcement that out of the line descending from Jacob would come a "Star" and a "Sceptre," indicating kingly dominion and power, referring to the star that would show the birth of Christ the King at Bethlehem.

 

How?

 

Moses was confronted with much difficulty among the children of Israel as they continued their Exodus. God had him prophesy to them about a greater One in Whom they should place their reliance, One to be of flesh, like himself. His words are recorded in Deuteronomy 18:15: "The Lord thy God will raise up unto thee a Prophet from the midst of thee, of thy brethren, like unto me; unto him ye shall harken."

 

Who?

 

The great prophet Isaiah was led by God to add more specifics to the mounting prophecy that was to be fulfilled in Jesus Christ. Isaiah declared these things in Chapters 7:14 and 9:6: "Therefore the Lord himself shall give you a sign: Behold, a virgin shall conceive, and bear a son, and shall call his name Immanuel (meaning God with us) ... For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given, and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace."

 

Why?

 

What was the purpose of all this? Isaiah described it as the defeat of the sins man himself could not overcome, Chapter 53:5-6: "But he was wounded for our transgressions, he was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement of our peace was upon him: and with his stripes we are healed. All we, like sheep, have gone astray; we have turned every one to his own way; and the Lord hath laid on him the iniquity of us all."

 

Where?

 

The prophet Micah, in Chapter 5:2, even told where the miraculous birth of Christ would take place: "But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel: whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting."

 

This is a significant reference to the fact that he was not speaking of a temporal or secular ruler but an eternal one.

 

When?

 

]With these prophecies pointing the way, the people had cause for hope. But they, as we do today, turned away from God. When they obeyed God, they prospered. When they disobeyed Him, they fell. In the course of history, the people of Judah were taken into captivity by Babylonian enemies. While in exile, Daniel uttered a prophecy that indicated even the time when the Messiah, Jesus Christ, would be born.

 

When Jerusalem was captured, its walls and buildings were torn down. Daniel spoke of a time when the city would be raised again, and dated the coming of Christ from that time. In the King James translation of Daniel, we find references to "weeks," this being translated from a word meaning "sevens." If we read the King James version "weeks" as "sevens," we find reference to numbers of unspecified units of time (that we now recognize as years) in Daniel 9:25: "Know therefore and understand, that from the going forth of the commandment to restore and build Jerusalem, unto the Messiah the Prince, shall be seven sevens, and threescore and two sevens; the street shall be built again, and the wall, even in troublous times."

 

]It came to pass that when Artaxerxes ruled, he sent forth an order for the Jewish captives to return to Jerusalem to rebuild their city. And, indeed, "seven sevens" (49) plus "three-score and two sevens" (434), or a total of 483 years after that order, Jesus Christ, the Messiah, Lord and Savior, ministered in the Holy Land.

 

The Way

 

These Old Testament prophecies told the "who, what, when, where, why and how" of Christmas. And John 3:16 sums it up meaningfully: "For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life."

 

With the spirit of that promise, by acceptance of the gift of God through faith, everyone may find the real, happy meaning of Christmas.

 

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TIMES FREE PRESS

OPINION

NEEDED: EXERCISE FOR U.S. KIDS

 

Thanks to broad-based public information campaigns, many parents in the United States increasingly are aware of the toll lack of regular exercise takes on their children. Study after study indicates that a high percentage of American youngsters are overweight, even obese, and that their short and long-term health suffers as result. To remedy the problem, many parents turn to organized sports to provide regular exercise. The idea is a good one. Turns out, though, that the execution of that idea is problematic.

 

The problem is that most kids involved in youth sports apparently don't get as much exercise in those programs as parents believe. A recent study reported in a pediatric medical journal exposes the shortcomings of many of the programs. The study of 200 California kids aged 7-14 who played soccer, football and baseball. Using sensors to record physical activity, researchers discovered that kids, on average, were inactive for about 30 minutes per practice. Clearly, kids in those programs gained little in the way of additional physical activity.

 

There are, to be fair, youth sports programs that are well organized and provide regular and vigorous physical exercise. Many, it now seems, do not. Many of the latter are run by volunteers who are fully engaged in the program, work well with kids and who become admirable role models in many instances for the kids in their charge. They are not trained, however, to emphasize fitness. The result, on the whole, is alarming.

 

Long-standing national guidelines suggest that children and adolescents — boys and girls — engage in moderate-to-heavy physical activity every day. Unfortunately, most do not. Indeed, less than 50 percent of U.S. children and 10 percent of teens attain that level of activity.

 

Girls, especially, fail to meet the mark. One study indicates that girls in the United States on average spend 10 minutes or less in physical activity each day. It's hardly a wonder, then, that worried parents seek ways to provide physical activity for their children.

 

Many parents turn to organized sports activities to remedy the problem. By one count, 44 million U.S. kids and teens are enrolled in such programs. Given the findings of the new study and earlier ones that reflect the same patterns of inactivity, much of the time and money invested in the programs, at least in terms of improved physical activity, goes to waste.

 

There are few ready remedies other than increased levels of brisk physical activity to combat the nation's growing epidemic of childhood obesity and related illnesses. Well-developed youth sports programs run by trained volunteers can help, but there are other, useful options available.

 

It might seem old fashioned to suggest that kids walk and run more, and that they engage in more independent play. Or that schools, even in times of fiscal distress, expand rather than eliminate required physical education programs. In the long run, those ideas might prove more helpful in getting U.S. kids into good shape than heavy reliance on youth sports programs that, it seems, do not always provide desirable levels of physical activity.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

FROM THE BOSPHORUS: STRAIGHT - HEP, DEP, HADEP, DEHAP, DTP, BDP…

 

The warning by a deputy of the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP, that violence may ensue should the party be banned, is unhelpful at a moment when efforts toward reconciliation of the "Kurdish issue" are inching toward success. The implicit threat in the comments of Bengi Yıldız of renewed terror is counter to the spirit of dialogue advocated by so many within Kurdish organizations and the BDP itself.

 

We wish Yıldız had been more temperate in his remarks. That said, however, the cycle of party closures that have characterized state reaction to Kurdish efforts of political expression is a nearly two-decade exercise in futility. We will not pronounce on an ongoing matter in the courts, which is where the BDP is headed in the wake of an investigation launched by Chief Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya. The investigation reportedly will explore links between the party and an umbrella organization of Kurdish NGOs.

 

In the absence of comment, a review of the history of pro-Kurdish parties is in order:

 

]First was the People's Work Party, or HEP, founded in 1990. Due to its promotion of Kurdish cultural and political rights the party was banned by the Constitutional Court in July 1993.

 

Quickly, it reemerged as the Democracy Party, or DEP, which had been founded a few months prior to HEP's closure in anticipation of the inevitable. For promotion of Kurdish nationalism it was banned by the Constitutional Court in June 1994. Six DEP deputies were arrested and sentenced to 15 years in prison. In 2002, the European Court of Human Rights held DEP's dissolution to be contrary to the European Convention on Human Rights.

 

DEP was succeeded by the People's Democracy Party, or HADEP, established in May 1994. The party adopted a moderate course and kept its distance from the issue of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Nonetheless, at a party congress in June 1996 masked men dropped the Turkish flag and raised the PKK flag instead. All HADEP members were arrested. The party survived a 1999 closure case but was banned in 2003 on grounds it supported the PKK. (Just a few days ago, with two successors in the interim, HADEP's dissolution was unanimously found by the European Court of Human Rights to violate the European Convention on Human Rights.)

 

Enter the Democratic People's Party, or DEHAP, which had been founded in the wake of the flag incident. It marched on but failed to pass the 10 percent electoral threshold in the 2002 elections. It was then folded into the new Democratic Society Party, or DTP, in 2005 with a strategy to avoid the threshold by fielding candidates as independents. That strategy proved successful in the 2007 elections, winning the DTP 20 seats.

 

But a year ago, it too was dissolved by the Constitutional Court, most of its deputies quickly reflagging their party as the BDP. Now the BDP itself faces another closure. When will the cycle end?

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

THE SAME FILM, OVER AND OVER AGAIN

SEMİH İDİZ

 

The Armenian community of North America is disappointed again. This time the object of its ire is outgoing U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Armenian-Americans clearly feel a "golden opportunity" was allowed to slip by, thus preventing them once more from "catching Turkey."

 

Put briefly, the anti-Turkish mood in the U.S. Congress over Ankara's Iran and Israel policies was expected to swing the balance against Turkey this time. The fact that Pelosi has always fervently supported the Armenian cause clearly fuelled expectations further.

 

Once more it was seen, however, that U.S. national interests carry more weight than constituency considerations, even if there is anger in Congress directed at Turkey. The Turkish media also reported that incoming House Speaker John Boehner was influential in ensuring the Armenian resolution was not passed.

 

If true, this would mean Boehner did not want U.S.-Turkish relations to sustain any further blows given that the present state of ties is not so great anyway. He probably also felt that a serious blow to these ties would undermine what little chance there may be for a rapprochement between Turkey and Israel.

 

It is certain, however, that none of this will deter the highly motivated Armenian lobby in the United States – especially in the lead-up to the 100th anniversary of the events of 1915. Put another way, we can expect a similar "Armenian genocide resolution" to come up in the U.S. Congress as early as next spring.

 

But whether the Armenian community's hand will be any stronger than it is today remains an open question. There is also a new and increasingly significant phenomenon that has to be factored in by Armenian-Americans.

 

The Turkish-American community has started displaying much more solidarity and strength, and has been acting much more in unison, and with a clearer focus on its target, than it did a decade or so ago. Many members of this community are professional and influential U.S. citizens who are endowed with the capacity to make themselves listened to, and understood.

 

Günay Evinch, the president of the Assembly of Turkish-American Associations, and Kaya Boztepe, the president of the Federation of Turkish-American Associations, both expressed their gratitude for this in a joint statement they issued to the Turkish community after Pelosi failed to bring the resolution recognizing Armenian claims of genocide to a vote.

 

But they also cautioned Turkish-Americans that "the years ahead will continue to be a challenge" in this respect. In other words, there is still much to be done by Turkish-Americans as they rally and organize in order to counter the anti-Turkish initiatives of the Armenian lobby.

 

]Put briefly, after the suspense of the earlier part of this week, we are again at the "I've seen this film before" stage as far as this bout of the "genocide resolution" fight is concerned. Neither is there much to indicate that this vicious circle will be broken anytime soon.

 

]Turkey has gained too much critical mass both politically and economically in the international arena, thus making it harder – even for Congressmen or Congresswomen who hate Turkey – to be lackadaisical about the state of Turkish-American ties.

 

There are, of course, the many lawsuits by Armenians in California against Turkey, Turkish institutions and companies that did business in the Ottoman Empire, as Evinch and Boztepe pointed out in their joint statement. 

 

One of these goes so far as to lay claim to the land occupied by the İncirlik Airbase near Adana, while another lays claim to the Presidential Palace in Ankara. But few legal experts expect these cases to get anywhere in real terms, regardless of what publicity they may ultimately provide Armenians for their cause.

 

Not withstanding the "I've seen this film before" stage, we are also at the "It can't go on like this" stage as far as sensible people on both sides are concerned. But it is clear that these are not the most popular people among the diehards on both sides of the seemingly unbridgeable divide between Turks and Armenians.

 

It was these hard-line elements that eventually scuttled the Zurich Protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia, which proposed normalized relations among the two nations. The hardliners on both sides hated these protocols from the start, indicating in so many words that they are prepared to continue with what a Turkish nationalist historian calls "the blood feud of the century," for another 100 years if need be.

 

This is why there is a need for more logical and sensible people to try and do their bit in an effort to build bridges between the two peoples that will help chip away at the ossified paradigms of hatred that have been allowed to develop on both sides.

 

There is a need, in this context, to increase contacts between ordinary Turks and Armenians, a prospect that is not as impossible as it may sound to some people. This is, in fact, already happening silently between Turks from Turkey and Armenians from Armenia. Despite the failure to implement the Zurich Protocols, cultural contacts are increasing.

 

The fact that the Armenian Surp Haç Church on Akdamar Island in eastern Turkey, near the city of Van, will be open to prayer on holy days will also make a contribution in this respect, especially now that the cross of the church has been put in its rightful place as demanded by Armenian religious leaders.

 

Van is, of course, central to the bloody Turkish-Armenian experience and any healing process that might start there will have great significance. There is also a need for the Turkish and Armenian communities in the West, and especially in the United States, to try and reach out to each other. The battle lines between the two communities appear so set that there seems little hope for this at first glance.  

 

But there are still sensible people in both communities that realize the present state of affairs between the two peoples can not go on like this forever. Neither is calling for bridges to be built between these estranged people as "utopian" as the hot-heads on both sides would like to make it out to be.

 

If Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian are doing such a wonderful job (and I would strongly recommend www.theyoungturks.com to everyone) there seems little reason why other Turks and Armenians cannot work out their differences, and learn to work together just like these two young people.

 

It all comes down to whether we want "an eye for an eye," or whether we want to try to and understand each other's pain by exercising strong, and "cathartic," empathy. Maintaining enmity is always easy. Empathy and understanding is the hard part.

 

While the odds are stacked to the advantage of the radicals and hot-heads on both sides, there nevertheless exists the possibility for sensible Turks and Armenians to try and chip away at what appears to be a hatred of monolithic proportions.

 

The only alternative to this seems to be that we will continue to see a repeat of a film that we have seen over and over again for the past 30 odd years.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

WHAT'S WIKILEAKS? CHESTNUTS, FOOTBALLER, SOAP OR MEDICINE?

BURAK BEKDİL

 

A Swiss diplomat friend who had served in Guatemala once jokingly warned me, "If your Latin American buddy told you "don't worry," it means there is every reason why you should worry!"

 

He had come to that particular conclusion after his diplomatic car was stolen during an expedition to deliver Swiss government aid to poor mountain villages – despite constant assurances by his local friends and colleagues the armored car was "safe." Years later, in Guatemala, I learned that he was not exaggerating.

 

Generalizations about "national ethos" – negative or positive – can be politically incorrect. However, that does not mean they are always wrong. One such half-joke goes that you should never ask a Turk an address since he or she would confidently show you a direction whether or not he or she has any idea of where you intend to go (advice: don't test this if you really must rush to an unknown address). A simple "I don't know" is perhaps perceived by Turks as the biggest sin – it won't be an exaggeration to say this Turkish columnist passed the university exam by randomly choosing one answer after narrowing four options to two in the multiple choice test.

 

The Star TV crew must have relied on the Turkish inability to say "I don't know" when it took to the streets and randomly asked pedestrians around Istanbul's Taksim Square one simple question: What is WikiLeaks? The answers are hilarious and the footage is a must-see for Turkish-speaking readers (the link is available on Hürriyet's website). 

 

For instance, one respondent is absolutely certain that WikiLeaks is a foreign footballer but he is not certain about his nationality, although he firmly believes he is German. Someone says it's a supermarket, the other says it's – ironically – a medicine.

 

Another is more specific: it's a medicine for rheumatism. Then, footballer, again – but this time the respondent is more knowledgeable. "WikiLeaks has just signed up with Beşiktaş, and I regret that because I am a Fenerbahçe fan." The crew asks: "He must be good if you regret…" His answer: "Of course I do. Such a renowned footballer… Who doesn't know he is such a talent?"

 

Other respondents think WikiLeaks is a disease, a cartoon hero, a basketball player who has just joined the Turkish league from a brilliant career in the NBA. A soap, a fashion brand… But my favorite was the man who, with the serious expression of an agricultural expert, declared that WikiLeaks was a mid-sized chestnut from Balıkesir. So precise!

 

Only one respondent said "I don't know." And another said that WikiLeaks is "that internet man who revealed the prime ministers on TV." Borrowing the tag from a humor magazine, I insist that Turkey's "mid-major semi-upper-lower-middle-mids" should be taken seriously!

 

]But is that good news or bad news for the Justice and Development Party, or AKP? Probably good news. Who will the Turks believe: mid-sized chestnuts from Balıkesir or diplomats from the United States who think that "Turkey's leaders run an iron ring of sycophantic (but contemptuous) advisors, have little understanding of politics beyond Turkey, are dragging the country towards an Islamist future, and are noted with their yen for destructive drama and rhetoric"? I personally would go for the chestnuts – trust my senses, as evinced by my successful university exam.

 

The AKP's (read: Mr Erdoğan plus Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu) foreign policy making-and-selling can now be catalogued under three headings: before WikiLeaks, during the leaks, and after.

 

The pre-leak perception was fundamentally based on the idea that "Ha ha, thanks to our better-than-Goebbels propaganda machine we successfully cheat the Westerners into the grand illusion that we are great democrats and liberal Muslims who are taking Turkey into the EU."

 

The leak-time was a bombshell for understandable reasons, but it was quickly replaced with the post-leak, equally self-confident, perception: "Hey, we thought we faked well but apparently they did not buy our propaganda, those infidels. We had so carefully painted those stripes on the elephant to present it as a zebra, but the infidels are probably smarter than we thought. But WikiLeaks (not the chestnuts) proves we were right to think the infidels were infidels. So, the show must go on!"

 

That's why Mr Davutoğlu recently spoke of "correcting or normalizing the trajectory of history" as the fundamental feature of Turkish foreign policy. By "normalization" he probably means that Atatürk's Turkey went too Westward and now it's time to reverse that path by re-routing Turkey toward its fellow Muslim and Arab friends.

 

The trouble is, as one European diplomat said, the AKP is misreading the Muslim and Arab attitude toward Turkey like it misread the western attitude.

 

Finally, here is some gastronomic advice for Christmas and New Year's Eve party-goers amid the freezing cold of global warming: consume generous quantities of roasted chestnuts. But remember the best ones are the mid-sized-WikiLeaks type from Balıkesir.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

SECOND ACT OF HOCUS-POCUS PLAN

HALUK BÜRÜMCEKÇİ

 

On Dec. 17, one day after the Central Bank of Turkey decided to cut rates, an article titled "Turkey's Financial Conundrum" was published in the Wall Street Journal. Although it displayed opposite views about the decision and refrained from early judgment, the tone of the article was rather cynical as you might also extract from the sentence below:

"The bank's monetary policy committee on Friday completed the second act of a hocus-pocus plan to simultaneously slow booming credit growth and curb the inflows of hot money that's threatened to destabilize Turkey's rapid recovery. Policymakers in Ankara have gambled that cutting rates to dissuade speculative investors is less risky than firing a domestic consumer boom that some fear could see the economy overheat. It's too early to judge whether the complicated policy shift will have the desired effect: reducing hot money flows and cooling runaway lending rates. But the policy push has split the market. Some have praised the [Central Bank]'s boldness, acknowledging that rate-setters are in a tough spot trying to square competing objectives. Others are less sanguine, warning that the abrupt shift in policy calls the bank's credibility into question."

 

In an environment of uncertainty and unconventional approaches to monetary policy globally, as well as general elections and a Central Bank governor change locally in 2011, one could easily understand why there are different views and second thoughts about the same decision. Exactly for that reason, in my previous article, I underlined the importance of the Central Bank's credibility in the eyes of market players since measuring how much increase in required reserve ratios would be enough to offset the interest rate cut is not very straightforward. If you want my honest opinion, the Central Bank has built up huge credibility during the global crisis by starting pre-emptive rate cuts that later on many others followed. So I beg to differ from those who see problems and risks in this policy mix. Clearly, the Central Bank is planning to ride on possible positive surprises from the inflation front. I can imagine how skeptics might react if headline inflation fell rapidly and reached 5 percent or lower at the end of February next year. The first test for this strategy will be held with December inflation, where I expect another fall in year-on-year comparisons. This could mean success for the Central Bank in reaching the 2010 target of 6.5 percent.

 

Capital war advances in all fronts

 

In the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy announcement for 2011, on Dec. 21, the Central Bank said it would continue with the policy to increase the reserve requirement gradually for short-term Turkish Lira liabilities and also may consider changing the reserve requirement of foreign currency liabilities according to maturity composition. This implicitly means that the bank will continue with policy rate cuts in the following meetings to smooth the tightening effect of the reserve requirement increase. Another move from the Central Bank could be to widen the scope of the reserve requirements for foreign exchange liabilities. In that context, the Central Bank said banks' off-balance sheet activities are going to be monitored closely. This means that the Central Bank may consider applying reserve requirements to FX swaps, which is another source for creating cheap Turkish Lira funding. 

 

New target for Central Bank?

 

With its recent precautions and mention of possible measures it could take, the Central Bank seems to have adopted an implicit target for the current account deficit, as they expect it in 2011 to approach the level forecasted in the Medium Term Program ($42.2 billion, or 5.4 percent of GDP). However, consensus expectation for 2010 suggests the current account deficit will approach $45 billion this year, thus making such an assertion quite ambitious. Moreover, reaching this target necessitates a significant slowdown in economic activity especially in domestic demand. Therefore, striving for a narrower current account deficit would eventually mean prudent policy making thus confidence-boosting development for the government in an election year.

 

burumcekci@gmail.com

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

THE CHP IN THE POST-CONVENTION PERIOD

SEDAT ERGİN

 

As the main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, faced the most abject conspiracy theory in Turkish political history on May 7 and the party's chairman was forced to resign, it was unknown whether or not the CHP would overcome such a blow. The future of the party was extremely unclear.

 

The CHP has proven, however, the power of survival in the wake of this shocking experience. A new leader was selected in a very short period of time – two weeks – at a general convention.

 

Since the new chairman of the party became surprisingly popular among the people, and since he exerted tremendous efforts to renew the party despite the odds, expectations regarding the CHP rose suddenly.

 

Reaching out to the youth

 

When going through the shocking experience of May 7, no CHP official thought that a new leader could be elected so promptly; that he could take control of the party only seven months later at a party convention; or that he could thoroughly change the look of the party.

 

It could be said that new CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has relaxed for the first time in terms of his administration on account of Saturday's party assembly. Competing power bases, which seriously affected the party in the past, have remarkably been eliminated. Therefore, the CHP leader, from now on, will have the opportunity to work with a more harmonious team in the assembly.

 

Compared to the dominant homogenous structure of the former party assembly, the new names and diversity in the new team might add a dynamism to the CHP. Increasing number of female and youth officers in the party assembly might help the CHP to take a breath and better embrace life more. The new texture of the party assembly, in a country with a very young population, will be extremely useful for the CHP to reach out to the younger generations.

 

All in all, the change in the party has added zest and energy to Turkish politics.

 

A big coalition

 

At the same time, the new look of the party heralds new initiatives happening internally. For example, the inclusion of Sezgin Tanrıkulu in the party assembly is a strong sign the CHP definitely wants to build bridges with Turkey's Kurdish community.

 

Likewise, retaining several seats for names close to the party's center-right indicates that the CHP also wants to reach out to former True Path Party, or DYP, and Motherland Party, or ANAP, voters in advance of the June 2011 elections.

 

The weakest point for Kılıçdaroğlu was foreign policy. But the inclusion of veteran names such as Faruk Loğoğlu and Osman Korutürk in the party assembly will eliminate such weakness.

 

Considering these moves, the CHP's new party assembly looks like a "rainbow coalition" formed by the inclusion of different groups. If politics is the art of building up alliances, very serious efforts have already been made to satisfy the definition.

 

Not to repeat old mistakes

 

But of course, politics could be easier if it were nothing but "looks" only, and now the CHP should build on its party politics, an election platform, and more importantly, its relations with the public.

 

The CHP now faces two critical targets: preparing for the election set to be held in six months' time and accelerating the process of change in the party. Although it is not easy to handle the two together, this could be achievable and could perfectly be turned into an advantage.

 

First of all, the CHP should represent an assertive and convincing election platform with realistic perspectives proposed to solve the problems about which it is concerned.

 

In the meantime, the mistakes of the last six months and sloppiness in general shouldn't be repeated. The main reasons why such things occurred could be because Kılıçdaroğlu was either not ready for the leadership or did not have a strong team backing him.

 

The CHP has to act in well coordinated, well prepared, selective and more focused ways and is expected to foster a contemporary, social democrat identity.

 

*Sedat Ergin is a columnist of daily Hürriyet, in which this piece appeared Wednesday. It was translated into English by the Daily News staff.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

A NEW TANGO IS STARTING IN TURKEY-US RELATIONS

MEHMET ALİ BİRAND

 

Relations between Turkey and the United States are currently being fine-tuned. The dangerous course has been replaced with a calmer process, a mutually new attempt and opportunity to put relations back on track.

 

It becomes apparent that the White House gave the "Don't batter Turkey" message to those that have been very angry with Turkey. The president's statement in daily Hürriyet over the weekend ("Our relations are strong, we may have some differences but these are of minor importance") seemed to be the first sign.

 

Then we need to add to that the sensibility of the administration in respect to the Armenian bill taking place on the agenda of the House of Representatives. The administration seems to be preparing to listen to Ankara more broad-mindedly. As a matter of fact, we couldn't help but noticing that a delegation came to Istanbul last week only to "change the course of Turkish American relations and attempting to understand Turkey better."

 

This visit, attended by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright, retired ambassadors, nongovernmental organizations and academics, aimed to see the course of Turkey and examine the reality in place. All were people who valued relations with Turkey very much and knew the region well and more importantly were close to the Obama administration. You see, nobody felt the need to convince anyone or tell about our own case.

 

They asked and Turkish participants lead by İlter Türkmen shared their views. Rest assured, that this meeting was very informative in respect to differing views and analysis. Even those who used to criticize Prime Minister Erdoğan from time to time gave him credit.

 

I used to participate in such meetings many times but this one was different in tone and atmosphere. In summary I could say the following:

 

- Relations between Turkey and the U.S. are not as they used to be in the sense of little brother does as the big brother says. Some Americans accept that Turkey is playing an important role in the region but a substantial part of Washington could not adopt this reality.

 

- The United States letting go of or turning its back on the Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is out of question. From now on difference in opinion or serious disagreement will be present but at the end of the day they'll meet in the same place.

 

- Washington too does know that its general attitude needs to change. It does not like Turkey's approach in Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Sudan and Syria relations but seems to understand that it has to get over it.

 

- It openly shows that the former "Strategic Partnership" has no meaning anymore. Thus another slogan needs to be found.

 

- They accept that Turkey is looking for a new approach rather than a shift in axis.

 

- They often repeat that there is no shift in axis but Ankara needs to find a way to better explain itself.

 

- As much as the need for Turkey to change its approach in issues like Iran and Israel, the United States needs to share its politics regarding Turkey.

 

This meeting and statements thereafter will be very helpful with respect to explaining Turkey's approach in the region. But let's not forget that Turkey also needs to support this effort.

 

Ankara is expected to fine tune its attitude in order not to upset Washington and stop beating Israel constantly.

 

We'll miss the Armenian protocols much

 

We were about to incidentally receive a goal in our goalpost in respect to the Armenian genocide bill as we were playing in overtime.

 

Pressure form the Obama administration, not enough votes in the Congress and not sufficient support from the Israeli lobby saved us from this goal.

 

Everybody took a deep breath. But don't worry there will be another bill in April. And if that one doesn't pass there will be another one the following year. This will continue until 2015 (the anniversary of genocide allegations). If no vital steps are taken or any progress made the Armenians will try and do their best to pass the draft.

 

The only way to stop this course was the protocols signed with Yerevan. It was expected to take pressure off of our shoulders. But Ankara could not keep these protocols alive. The ministry for foreign affairs either was unable to explain itself to Azerbaijanis or the Azerbaijanis didn't care or take it serious. But when things got serious and protocols were signed, they got upset. Turkey couldn't break Aliyev's heart and succumbed to Baku.

 

In short, Ankara regrets it now. It is obvious that as long as these protocols are not revived it won't rid itself of the Armenian spiral. So what are we supposed to do? Will we live through this torture every year until 2015?

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

ENHANCING DEMOCRACY OR CAUSING TURKEY'S DISINTEGRATION?

YUSUF KANLI

 

It is the fundamental right of every country to take measures against attempts or threats directed at its national and territorial integrity. No country can be accused of "resorting to violence" if that country is faced with an existential threat and it has been trying to protect itself and its citizens from an enemy force or a terrorist-separatist element supported or abetted by some "allies" or "brotherly neighbors" of that country.

 

Of course as the founder of the modern Turkish republic with the dust of the Turkish War of Liberation still on his boots had put it wisely, "Engaging in a war is crime unless it is for the defense of the country."

 

Is it not sad to see where on the pretext of democracy, more democratic rights or the rhetoric of enhanced democracy they have dragged Turkey over the past years gradually, systematically and through a well-planned campaign of domestication. The biggest two threats of yesterday – the Islamist radicals and the separatist terrorists – have united in the common cause of getting rid of the secular and democratic Turkish state adhering to the principle of the supremacy of law. It started with a campaign to get rid of the fundamentals of the Republic established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, domesticate it to embrace the Islamist radicals by putting aside the principle of secularism, and now time has come to the stage of getting rid of the unitary state.

 

Getting engaged in efforts or actions against the Turkish Republic and its founding philosophy has become something to be awarded as if in the democratic league of nations and in those countries which are considered the cradle of democracy undertakings that might imperil public order, pose an existential threat to the state or endanger individual and communal freedoms or place at risk the lives of some people are not considered to be among democratic rights and liberties. Indeed all such actions and endeavors are serious crimes in all democracies. Yet poisonous plans which might help no other purpose but to the disintegration of Turkey are being presented as ideas to "further enhance" the Turkish democracy already greatly "enhanced" by the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP's, majoritarian rule.

 

Turkey should of course avoid all sorts of racism. If there are people who might think that majority racism is dangerous but minority racism is good for enhancing democracy in a country, then we have nothing to say. Yet, it must not be forgotten that while minority racism might be controlled and if necessary might be contained with some wise approaches or with some police measures, if and when minority racism ignites majority racism in societies like Turkey where an overwhelming percentage of the population belongs to the majority, the consequences might be horrifying for everyone.

 

Is it not odd to see the so-called "democratic autonomy" mumbo jumbo? Now an army of neo-liberals are out to support that new invention of the separatist chieftain imprisoned on İmralı island as a "great idea that will enhance Turkish democracy." Some of those neo-liberals are claiming that only with such a "democratic" plan will the Kurdish problem of the country be resolved, otherwise the country will plunge into violence one again and those people who oppose the plan would be responsible for that.

 

Oh la la, look at the democratic mindset! Either accept the plan of the terrorist chieftain, accept a second flag, a second official language and a separate defense force in some provinces, or terrorists will be "compelled" to start attacking Turks and Turkish targets once again. What kind of a democratic mentality is that? Why should Turkey allow itself to be held hostage by the terrorist chieftain? What would be the next demands of the bloodthirsty terrorist at İmralı should for the sake of "enhancing" Turkish democracy the government with "enhanced democratic mindset" gives in to the current demands? Would he then give the map of the region he wants to carve out from Turkey?

 

The neo-liberal and Islamist coalition of "enhanced democrats" have silently increased the Kurdish population of the country from 10-15 million to over 20 million. They have readjusted the size of other minorities as well. According to their calculation there are no Turks in this country anyhow. With such perverted and creative calculations nothing can be achieved.

 

The "democratic autonomy" proposal has indeed removed the veil and let us see the real intention of at least one of the two major partners of the evil coalition.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

STUDENT PROTESTS AND REACTIONS: SHALL WE TALK FOR A MINUTE?

DİLEK AYDEMİR

 

Turkey has been the scene of student protests in the tail of 2010 such like Europe. Protests which were sparkled with the Turkish prime minister's Dolmabahçe meeting with university rectors went on for weeks and turned into "egg throwing" acts toward a number of politicians, businesspeople, writers and civil society representatives. The protests have been characterized in our minds with tough police response, aggressive fights between police and protestors along with flying eggs in the background.

 

While organizers in Central London promise more student protest in the next month, enduring student protests in Turkey also ensure that the issue will continue to occupy media headlines in the coming year. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand the societal causes of these protests.

 

When we direct a close eye toward the protests in general, "violence and use of force" have diverse determinants, which more or less stem from a systemic attitude against these factors, while a lack of social communication channels between the parties of the dispute has to be underlined as one of the social aspects of the issue. Moreover, the question of "who is going to adopt violence?" also needs to be evaluated.

 

How to describe the state of mind?

 

In the Weberian conceptualization of the state, the police appear as one of the basic state apparatus endowed with the legitimate power to use force. In this regard, the police is portrayed as an organic mechanism – like a bodily system – is defined as the "fist" which is directed against outside threats to the system. In this analogy, the police are the embodied form of this very system which is materialized against the threats to social order. Hence, the problematique does not end with the questioning of "the police force," since it does not start there. Indeed, if we scratch the façade of violence and the use of force, it would not be hard to realize that they are mostly fed by legitimization in the system more than personal outbursts.

 

From students' perspective, young people encounter the state's "police face" in these protests. A lack of diverse communication channels between the state and students may to be underlined as the most problematic aspect of these encounters. Although student protests have also been criticized in numerous media outlets for being "outdated," what about considering this once more: No one goes to a protest because they hope to be beaten by the police. Yet, social distress, which finds its form in street protests, can be read as a symptom of people's loss of faith in diverse mechanisms to voice their demands.

 

On the other hand, whether some like it or not, nobody has the right to interrupt another's self-expression with an "egging." The rise of such an act as the protest of groups who are seeking the enhancement of democratic rights destroys the significance and forcefulness of their demands.

 

In this brief picture, the main problem related to state's part can be defined as the legitimization and internalization of the "violence and use of force" by the system. From the systemic aspect, states mostly approach social movements and protests in two paradigms.

 

According to the first paradigm, protests and shouting due to social distress is perceived as an "anomaly," a pathology damaging the social order. This approach leads us to either "ignore" or "terminate" the problems raised by the protestors. Even so, from the second point of view, the expression of social problems via diverse ways and facing clash of ideas bearably is a path for negotiation.

 

What we see in general is that states instrumentalize the first paradigm and look upon the social distress raised by young people as an inevitable "generation gap." This approach, which is heavily based on a mundane neglect of social problems, is not only unable to provide answers to wide critiques which are embodied in the form of street protests, but also dwarf in examining the public tension of social problems. In this regard, the movements and protests which are thought to have been abolished from the scene reappears in time, especially when politicians agree that they finally have a "smoothly functioning" society.

 

Why not keep on protesting?

 

As a matter of fact, universities, and especially big cities, are the basic spaces of opposition and social struggle not only in Turkey but all around the world. The rise of alternative protests and the search for diverse rights are not scary and surprising, but rather necessary in democracies. A neglect of the problems of youth and their demands does not provide long-term solutions to the state. Hence, instead of clamping down on protests with use of force, the right to social opposition and struggle should be backed as a democratic right and alternative mediums for negotiation must be created.

 

Street protests should not be promoted as the only medium of raising a voice and affecting political decision-making processes as well. Instead of street protests which can easily turn into discourse and violence games, civic initiatives between the state and society need to be enhanced. Moreover, these mediums can serve for the representation of diverse social groups not limited to university students, but also include movements asking for the elimination of socio-economic inequality, expanded human rights and a solution to large unemployment problems.

 

Unless these complex structural and social dynamics of protests are considered and channels for wider communication are provided, raising a systemic critique to the problem of "the use of force and violence" will not be an easy task. 

 

* Dilek Aydemir is a researcher in the field of sociology at the International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, Center for Social Studies in Ankara. She can be reached at

 

daydemir@usak.org.tr.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

HUNGARY'S EU PRESIDENCY: WHAT SHOULD THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP'S FUTURE POSTURE BE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAUCASUS?

ZAUR SHIRIYEV

 

Hungary assumes the European Union presidency in a troubled period, as all of Europe struggles under the economic crisis. As a new member of the EU, Hungary wants to prove its capacity to take on the challenging role of improving the capabilities of the partnership program for the EU's Eastern European neighbors.

 

Due to the economic crisis and the different approaches of the program participants, though, it is hard to realize all Eastern Partnership countries' aspirations.

 

In this regard, there was an interesting discussion in Budapest from Dec. 17-18 between Eastern Partnership, or EaP, program experts under the conference with the theme "EU Eastern Partnership - Experience, Efforts and Expectations" held by the World Economics Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

 

Interestingly, most conference participants expressed their attitudes toward the Eastern Partnership in line with a "more money, more success" vision.

 

Experts from the South Caucasus consider the EU to be an important player in developing a credible regional approach alongside its bilateral partnerships in the region. The size and geopolitical location and the complex, existing problems of the three South Caucasus countries suggest they cannot realize their best potential as a region.

 

The Eastern Partnership not only creates a valuable framework for enhanced cooperation with the EU but also aims to develop the regional cooperation and multilateral dialogue that is so needed in the South Caucasus.

 

In this regard, an economically rich and politically stable country such as Azerbaijan generally has a different agenda for the EaP, particularly from the Hungarian presidency. For example, "more responsibility, more engagement," as opposed to "more money, more success."

 

From the Azerbaijani perspective, the EU and its member states should stick to the political commitments made in Prague in May 2009 to show that they give importance to the EaP. One area that could be possible and plausible for concrete practical results in the short-term is visa facilitation with the partner countries.

 

The EaP should be visible not only to the governments, but also to ordinary people in the partner countries; the facilitation of visas would be an instrument that could have a positive impact on these people.

 

In a period when the EU is aiming to build closer ties with its partners in fields such as trade, education, culture and youth, artificial barriers such as visas should not be an obstacle. No double standards should be applied in the relations of the EU with the partner countries, especially on political matters and conflict resolution. The EU should have a clear position on the settlement of all the conflicts in the EaP area based on the norms and principles of international law and relevant adopted international documents. A differentiated approach on these conflicts does not serve the image of the EU as a credible and reliable partner, which would damage the very idea of partnership.

 

]For that matter, it becomes more and more evident that the EU's ambitions and policies cannot be fully realized due to the big shadow over the region – the shadow of the unresolved conflicts in Georgia and in Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

This is the biggest obstacle for achieving political stability, democratization and sustainable socioeconomic development. In the case of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the EU is the only international actor whose presence does not raise controversy and is accepted by both sides. Despite this fact, the EU has not thus far played a role in the conflict's resolution. Its resolution is a crucial precondition for the start of dialogue and cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. If this cooperation does not become a reality soon, the prospects for the region will not be very bright. Azerbaijan will continue to bear the humanitarian costs of the status quo and Armenia will continue to suffer from its regional isolation. Both countries will continue to spend large amounts on rearmament instead of development.

 

Therefore, at this stage, it is not enough for the EU simply to declare its support for the Minsk Group's work. It has to find a way to engage adequately before it is too late. As a co-chair of the group, France – to its credit – has expended a lot of effort and positive energy. But if the EU takes seriously its new foreign-policy role entrusted to it by the Lisbon Treaty, it needs to give France a European mandate within the Minsk group.

 

As a participant in this event, I will put forward some ideas for the Hungarian presidency:

 

First, I suggest the launch of a "Forum of Scholars and Experts on Eastern Partnership Countries." Its format could be similar to EaP's ongoing Civil Society Forum. If it is realized, it would boost more exchange of experience between EaP countries. Importantly, over the years, Azerbaijan has hosted many international debates, and in regard to future intellectual discussion, could be a catalyst for new ideas, especially between Armenian-Azerbaijan experts. In fact, Armenia must adopt a constructive attitude toward the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and must take steps in this regard. After this, the chances of intellectual debates between both sides in the conflict could be realized more easily.

 

Secondly, the situation of internally displaced persons, or IDPs, as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh war remains a serious problem as well. The EU needs to participate actively and even lead the international community's efforts to rehabilitate and develop the conflict zones by initiating income-generating projects, projects for social-economic integration and projects that encourage reconciliation.

 

Despite the launch of some programs for the integration of IDPs, Azerbaijan still faces a number of difficulties in this respect. Of course, the best and most adequate solution would be for these people to go back to their homes, where they belong. Therefore this objective should continue to be part of the comprehensive solution of the conflict. The current status quo is a result of years of inefficient diplomatic and political actions, which are in no one's interest. The biggest "losers" are the people living in and around Nagorno-Karabakh and all of the internally displaced people who have had to leave their homes without hope, and without a past. These people are doomed to isolation, poverty and a lack of prospects for a decent peaceful life.

 

Thirdly, it is necessary to reconsider facilitating the decision of sending an EU special representative to the South Caucasus. This idea is also supported by Armenian experts. An EU special representative takes on a role to represent the EU as a global power. Otherwise, regional representatives have no influence to represent the whole EU in the wider Caucasus.

 

In sum, the EU has the experience and capabilities to contribute to the creation of a more tolerant atmosphere in the South Caucasus and to show the people in this region that they can live together again in peace and prosperity, and can restore the good relations and mutual trust that existed in the past. After all, the big historical lesson the EU has learned is the lesson of integration. Integration is the only weapon with which lasting conciliation with the past and an investment in a better future can be achieved. Without a solution to existing conflicts, it is impossible to apply an integration model for all regional countries.

 

* Zaur Shiriyev is a foreign-policy analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan.

 

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 I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

CONSPIRACY OR CRIME?

 

Tensions in Balochistan are running high since the arrest on Wednesday of Shahzain Bugti, the provincial president of the Jamhoori Watan Party and a grandson of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti. Shahzain's detention came after officials of the Frontier Corps said a huge cache of illegal weapons, including rocket-launchers, had been uncovered in a convoy of vehicles coming with him from Chaman to Quetta. An FIR was registered on Thursday. However, the JWP and its president, Talal Bugti, term the whole episode as a conspiracy and say that – as part of a plot, presumably devised by the authorities – vehicles carrying the arms linked up with that in which Shahzain was travelling.

It is of course impossible at this point to say what the truth is. Obviously, carrying a huge quantity of illegal arms is not a matter that can be ignored. But it is important also that good sense and some degree of finesse be shown in handling the case. While no one deserves special treatment, the situation in Balochistan is such that it should not be allowed to worsen. Talal Bugti has indicated this could quite easily happen. An investigation is required. But with the JWP expressing a lack of confidence in the team set up by the interior ministry to conduct it, there seems to be no harm at all in accepting the party's demand that an independent judicial commission be established. A probe by such a team would carry greater weight and could set at rest the charges of conspiracy. Not many in Balochistan have much faith in Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who has in the past made comments on Balochistan which have not gone down well with the province. While an Indian hand in the violence there is not inconceivable, Mr Malik needs to accept that if Baloch militants are receiving assistance from New Delhi, then advantage is being taken of the grievances that exist in the province and have simmered there for decades. The Shahzain Bugti affair will rekindle the flames. It is in many ways ironic that members of the Bugti tribe, which has traditionally sided with the authorities, should now be the target of their close scrutiny. Shazain himself has been picked up before; another grandson of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti, Brahamdagh, is wanted by the security apparatus. The fact that the Bugtis have joined the nationalist cause should lead to some urgent thinking about what is going on in Balochistan and what the best ways are to tackle the problems.

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

STILL AT LARGE

 

It is now only a few days short of three years since Benazir Bhutto was murdered and we are still no nearer finding out who did it, by whose orders and financed by whom, and with whose complicity or connivance. President Zardari has said on more than one occasion since she was murdered that he knows who her killers are but has not named them. Speculation has swirled around the precise circumstances of her death – did she die of a bullet wound or an impact injury or a combination of both? And then there have been conflicting or confusing statements from those present on the day. Amidst all this are no names directly accused of her death – and the action of the Rawalpindi Anti-Terrorist Court No-III last Wednesday took us no closer either.

The ATC rejected the bail applications of two police officers who have been arrested in connection with the case – but neither of these men has been linked directly to her death other than by having failed to do their duty. The two men named in the challan submitted on November 15 are former CPO Saud Aziz and former SP Rawal Town Khurram Shahzad. They are accused of allowing security flaws and preventing an autopsy – an autopsy that would have done much to clear the fog of confusion were it to have been conducted. Neither man is accused of being directly involved in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, and at worst both may be guilty of dereliction of duty and poor police work – neither of which are uncommon at every level of every police force in the country. There is no allegation that either man in any way colluded with the killer(s) or was in any way involved in the organisation of the atrocity. This is not to say that either man should be treated leniently just because their alleged faults are endemic to the system, but we should not be deceived into thinking that the solution to the case is any further forwards with their arrest and production in court, because it is not. Those who murdered Benazir are as far from justice as they were on the day the crime was committed. And if the man who is our president really does know who killed his wife then it is about time he shared the names with those whose job it is to catch and prosecute them. 

 

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I,THE NEWS

OPINION

A MATTER OF MERIT

  

Following the lapse of a 2008 presidential ordinance that permitted the secretary, establishment to preside over the Central Selection Board, Justice (r) Rana Bhagwandas, in his capacity as chairman of the Federal Public Services Commission, has moved into the post at the head of the body which selects bureaucrats. This should have happened much sooner but, according to a detailed report in this newspaper, was prevented by the prime minister's office, which wanted a man of their own choice to head the body. The case revolves around the issue of merit. Appointments on this basis do not always suit political leaders who are keen on having their own nominees placed at key posts. A law seeking changes that would allow persons other than the FPSC chairman to head the CSB has been tabled in parliament, but, despite the stalling of a CSB meeting for a year, has not yet been passed by the National Assembly.

The collapse of the system of merit in the country is one that is as grave as the corruption that pervades officialdom. Indeed, the two go hand-in-hand. The lack of merit makes it easier to tamper the running of ministries and also to try and cover up wrongdoings of various kinds. Entire institutions, such as PIA, have been adversely affected by the lack of merit and the induction of persons not qualified for their posts. We can be grateful that, for now, the selections to the civil bureaucracy will proceed as they should. But this latest episode exposes the intentions of those at the helm of affairs – and their desire to prevent honest men from occupying key posts.

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

LET'S STOP FLATTERING INDIA SO MUCH

AYAZ AMIR

The centre of the Pakistani solar system is not the sun, as innocents may tend to believe, but our elephant-like neighbour to the east, from whose bosom once-upon-a-time we were carved: India. We may be fighting a war on our western frontier and the greatest threat to the idea envisioned by our luckless founding fathers may come from the forces of religious extremism – whose creation in present form and shape is one of the singular achievements of our defence establishment – but all our war doctrines are based on the real or presumed threat from the east.

Thus, while the world marches on we remain trapped in a time warp, fighting the battles of the past, obsessed with the perception of a threat which spurs us on to a nuclear arms race underpinned by no sense of logic or rationality...as the rest of the world understands these terms.

How much land does a man require?... famously asked Leo Tolstoy. How much nuclear security does a country require? In a reasonable world five nuclear bombs would be enough to ward off real or chimerical dangers. If Al-Qaeda had a single nuclear device the United States would not know how to deal with the threat. We may be a beggar country but, Allah be praised, we have enough nuclear bombs, and missiles to carry them, to spread death and destruction across the entire sub-continent.

Yet our supreme custodians of the national interest, self-appointed protectors of our ideological and geographical frontiers, are not satisfied, continuing to articulate and champion a national security doctrine out of sync with the times.

If the bombs at our disposal and more than half a million men, and mercifully a sprinkling of women, under arms are not enough to impart a sense of security to this putative citadel of Islam – another of our mythical notions – then Ares, the god of war, can descend from Olympus and we will not be secure.

Yes, we have problems with India and will continue to have them. But surely we are not envisaging a recourse to arms to settle these problems. We should stick to our viewpoint on Kashmir and, in this regard, be guided by the wishes of the Kashmiri people. If we have water problems with India we must talk to resolve them. If both countries are engaged in the most senseless of standoffs anywhere in the world – on the dizzying heights of the Siachen Glacier, the only way for common sense to make an appearance is through negotiations.

Except for the first Kashmir war, 1947-48, which allowed us to acquire the portion of Kashmir in our possession, all our subsequent wars with India were exercises in unmitigated folly. In the name of the national interest and, from Gen Ziaul Haq's time onwards, in the name of 'jihad', our supreme keepers of the national flame have done things which in other countries would have called for the requisitioning of a determined firing squad.

Haven't we gone through enough but must we still learn no lessons? Yes, the Pakistan-India border remains one of the most militarised frontiers in the world. Yes, there is an unbroken chain of military cantonments on the Indian side of the border, just as there is a similar chain – from the mountains of Kashmir to the sea – on our side. But we should be reversing this state of affairs, not advancing it.

Yes, we must remain eternally vigilant, I suppose an inescapable cliché in this sort of discussion. But the point is that we have enough, and to spare, to meet and even exceed the demands of vigilance. There may be sections of Indian public opinion hostile to Pakistan. But that shouldn't cause us any sleepless nights. There are many things about official India which we don't like. To hear Indians talk about their economic achievements, the implication being that Pakistan has been left far behind, can be tiresome, especially when repeated too often.

But the mark of being a civilized people is not to eliminate prejudice – it would be a dull world without anger and prejudice – but to keep it in check. We can indulge our fancies in private but when fancy and fantasy cloud public discourse or become substitutes for wisdom in government policy we invite trouble for ourselves.

Pakistan is not a morsel that can be chewed and swallowed. Contrary to what many in the chattering classes assert, Pakistan is not a banana republic. The United States does not run Pakistan and indeed could not, because some of our most glaring stupidities in the name of 'jihad' and national security are entirely indigenous, capable of concoction in no other laboratory.

Without under-estimating the ingenuity of the CIA, would the CIA have been able to create something quite like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi or the Lashkar-e-Taiba? The Kargil adventure could have been dreamt up only by the best and brightest in our own general staff. The fortress-of-Islam narrative can only be a Pakistani production. Making regular asses of ourselves in the name of religion is very much a home-grown talent.

So let us not run ourselves down and put India on too high a perch. India cannot harm us. Let us get this dangerous nonsense out of our heads. India is not about to attack Pakistan. Its leaders would have to be crazy – crazier than us – to even contemplate the possibility. India attacked us only once, in 1971, and even then we had made such a mess of East Pakistan that it was almost like inviting India to intervene. The rest of the times we attacked India, with nothing but disaster to show for it. We should get the balance of this accounting right.

Pakistan stands in greatest risk from itself, from our incapacity to look hard at our real problems and from our failure to confront those problems. Religious extremism especially in its Taliban and Al-Qaeda variety is a product of 30 years of distortion starting from the Zia era (or rather the 1977 rightist movement against Bhutto which set the stage for so much occurring thereafter). Reversing the tide of this extremist is not just a question of conducting military operations in one area of FATA or another but of reinventing the Pakistani state and making it less of a playground for theocratic forces.

This task of reinvention has to include the country's most powerful institution, the army...which, unluckily for Pakistan, instead of having a reformist and progressive influence on the nation has been the smithy for the forging of some truly strange concepts and doctrines.

And the time for this reinvention is very short. The Americans begin to withdraw from Afghanistan, as they are priming themselves to do, and a new period of uncertainty, to put it no stronger than this, will begin in that embattled country. We have to get things right between now and then.

None of the principals in Islamabad (to name them is to spoil one's mood) inspires much hope in this regard. But for the general staff at least, the self-appointed custodians of all that is holy, this should be a cue to change gears and spend less time fretting about India and more time in sizing up the threat of religious extremism – which won't grow less when the Americans depart.

With all the nonsense assiduously cultivated over the years about strategic depth and our legitimate interests in Afghanistan, and the threat from India, we have managed to turn what could have been a perfectly beautiful country, a crossroads of East and West, the gateway on the one hand to India and on the other to Central Asia, into an abnormal country.

The foremost task facing us as a nation is to return to normality and make education and the march to civilization our central preoccupations, instead of the totem poles currently the greatest objects of our worship: bombs and nuke-carrying missiles.

Tailpiece: Shahzain Bugti being held by the scruff of his neck as he was arrested...a photo, in the context of Balochistan, about as damaging as the one which showed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudry being pushed by the head into a waiting car. Will we never learn?

Email: winlust@yahoo.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

NO RIGHT TO MURDER

BEENA SARWAR

It would be funny if it weren't so tragic – but the absurd allegations of 'blasphemy' being hurled left, right and centre can actually cost lives. Consider that not one of the over 30 people murdered so far after being accused of 'blasphemy' had been found guilty by the courts in the final run. Some weren't even formally accused before mob violence or individual fanatics took their lives. Motives have been found to range from personal enmities and financial rivalry to land disputes.

In instance after instance, the unscrupulous have cold-bloodedly used a mere spark (a hint of 'blasphemy') to ignite a raging fire that claims lives. Naimat Ahmer, the Christian teacher and poet in Faisalabad was killed by a young man whose uncle coveted Ahmer's post, after posters cropped up accusing Ahmer of being disrespectful against the Prophet (Upon Him be Peace). There was personal enmity behind the lynching of the Jamat-e-Islami ffiliated cleric in Gujranwala, accused of burning the Holy Quran, many years ago. 

In the case of the bangle seller Chand Barkat (acquitted by a woman sessions judge in Karachi), the accuser was a rival shopkeeper. Jagdesh Kumar, the Hindu worker lynched at a Karachi factory in 2008 after being accused of blasphemy had lost his heart to a Muslim girl. Najeeb Ahmed, the young factory owner in Sheikhupura murdered in 2009 by his own workers had had a dispute with the employee who incited the mob. 

Behind the razing of two Christian villages in Gojra last year, in which nine Christians were killed after allegations that some Christians had desecrated the Quran, was a premeditated plan aimed at clearing out their land. 

The Christian woman, Aasia Noreen, was sentenced to death after being accused of blasphemy a year-and-a-half ago when she defended her faith before some Muslim women who refused to drink water she offered them. (Their reasoning: she is Christian and therefore 'unclean'. Let's be clear – this is a class issue. They would not have refused water from a 'gora', a white Christian). Even before the case could come up before the High Court – which must confirm the sentence or acquit her – the issue has been politicised to the extent that Aasia's life is in danger even if she is found innocent. 

It is shameful that no action has been taken against the Jamat-e-Islami affiliated cleric in Peshawar who announced Rs5 lakhs as reward for anyone who will kill Aasia if the Lahore High Court acquits her. Is incitement to murder not a criminal offence?

Even as the 'religious right' was out on the street baying for Aasia Noreen's blood, protesting the president's right to pardon her, an even more absurd case came up: Dr Noshad Valyani, a family physician in Hyderabad who discarded the visiting card of a medical representative with the name Mohammed is accused of 'blasphemy' (People are now wondering if they should stop using this name for their sons). 

The alleged incident took place on Dec 9, while the complaint was lodged on Dec 11. In Aasia Noreen's case too, the complaint was lodged several days after the alleged incident. This pattern is evident in most cases of alleged 'blasphemy'. Charges are typically filed days after the incident, after local clerics and self-styled defenders of the faith hear about the altercation and persuade someone to press charges. In other words, the blasphemy law is being cynically used as a political tool to arouse passions and keep certain persons and parties in the limelight. It would be nice if we could just ignore them but when they impose their views with violence, they must be countered. 

The injustices perpetuated by the blatant exploitation of the blasphemy laws have led even the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), Pakistan's foremost constitutional advisery body regarding Islamic injunctions, to propose procedural amendments to guard against misuse against any individual regardless of religion. Even the most virulent of blasphemy law defenders, including a certain cleric against whom women's rights activists have been up in arms, privately admit that the law is flawed and that amendments are necessary. A few brave souls are ready to say this publicly, like Dr Khalid Zaheer, who holds that "there is no blasphemy law in Islam." 

At a talk he gave last year organised by the civil society group People's Resistance in Karachi, Dr Zaheer noted that the Quran does not even hint at a worldly punishment for blasphemy. Instead, the holy book urges Muslims to ignore what the blasphemers say, to not be a part of them when they blaspheme, and to create circumstances that do not allow blasphemy to take place. (Noman Quadri, a student member of PR, has translated and posted the speech to his blog).

On the question of why so many Muslims believe the reality to be otherwise, Dr Zaheer explained that hadith and history mention several incidents in which people were killed apparently for the crime of blasphemy. However, "only those people lost their lives according to the divine law who refused to accept God's message when it was clearly delivered to them by the messenger." 

According to the Quran, death was a punishment to be meted out to the enemies of the messengers during their lifetime. "Such incidents have nothing with the issue of blasphemy in our times," he added. 

If Muslims want to retain a blasphemy law, they must satisfy two conditions:

a) Capital punishment cannot be given to a person who is found guilty of committing blasphemy. According to the Quran, capital punishment can only be given to murderers and those who take the law into their hands. (Quran; 5:32)

b) The punishment should be applicable to those found guilty of blasphemy against revered personalities and deities of all faiths and it should be equally applicable to both Muslims and non-Muslims. The Quran says: "Don't use abusive language against their false gods lest they should use the same language against yours in retaliation." (Quran; 6:108)

Of course not everyone will agree with Dr Zaheer. That is fine. Let the discussion continue. Let there be debate on amendments to the man-made blasphemy laws of Pakistan. 

In the meantime, here is a basic principle that all Pakistanis, no matter what their political or religious beliefs, must publicly agree to: no one has the right to murder anyone regardless of their religious beliefs. 

 

The writer is Editor Special Projects, Jang Group.

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

SIMPLY FASCINATING AND MIND-BOGGLING

DR MUZAFFAR IQBAL

Suppose a robber or a murderer is caught red-handed while committing his heinous crime because a secret camera records the deed and sends an alarm signal over the internet to the nearby police station. Furthermore, suppose that when his deed is brought to light, he tells the jury that the device which recorded his deed or the use of the internet was immoral. What would the jury do to such a person?

The analogy may enrage those who have been so dumbfounded by the disclosure of their deeds by Wikileaks, but to invent lies to invade a country, kill, maim, displace, and dislocate over two million human beings is not an insignificant act of diplomacy. The world knew when Iraq was invaded that this war is neither moral nor legal, and so what Wikileaks has revealed about this invasion and its aftermath is mere detail. But one would expect that the information now available in the public domain would have led to some remorse, regret, or acknowledgement of wrongdoing. What we have, instead, is an unending array of mind-boggling confusion.

On December 16, 2010, US Vice President Joe Biden said that there has been no "substantive" damage to US foreign policy from Wikileaks. Biden made that comment in an MSNBC interview, which was recorded on December 15, 2010. His exact words were: "Some of the cables that are coming out here and around the world are embarrassing, but nothing that I am aware of goes to the essence of the relationship that will allow another nation to say 'they lied to me, we don't trust them, they really are not dealing fairly with us."

Four days later, the same person, the same cables, the same material evidence, but an entirely different scoop: Vice President Joe Biden now described the Wikileaks founder as a dangerous "high-tech terrorist". A man who could be brought to the US and tried! "We're looking at that right now," Biden told NBC's Sunday talk show, "Meet the Press", but stopped short of elaborating on just how the administration could act against the head of Wikileaks: "I'm not going to comment on that process."

 

"Look, this guy (Assange) has done things that have damaged and put in jeopardy the lives and occupations of people in other parts of the world," Biden said.

What is simply mind-boggling in this schizophrenic reaction to Wikileaks is not so much the flip-flop, but the intellectual and moral makeup of the political leadership of a country which has arrogated the right to be the world's policeman. How can these men and women not understand what every illiterate person knows so clearly in a very large part of the world? How can this leadership be so blind to the basic reality of their misdeeds around the world?

That it is impossible for any one nation to control all humanity is such a simple and basic thing that even the most ordinary person knows it, yet the highly educated and supposedly well-trained leadership of the United States of America cannot see this basic truth and continues to play havoc with the lives of millions of people around the world. What Wikileaks has done is simply open up to the world what goes on behind the scenes all the times. There is nothing that has been added to the information which was not so accessible before, there is no colouring, no subtext – everything appears in its raw form. And what it reveals is astounding.

What is truly amazing is the fact that not a single cable has been refuted by anyone; all that has come out in the press against Wikileaks is that the information is not "lawfully" disclosed, whatever that may mean. But no one has denied a single report or information so far leaked.

One danger of such a large cache of raw information is indeed its vastness and there are already signs that Wikileaks is no more news. One did not expect that there would be any major change in the world because of these cables, but at the same time, one did not know such a fundamental disclosure could be taken as routine matter so quickly. The overwhelming impact of Wikileaks may have made people numb with horror and the enormity of the crime may have been cause for the quick "routineness" which has now set in. Because there is so much, so specific, and so real, it may all somehow seem overwhelmingly unmanageable. At times like this, specific details pertaining to individuals and events can help to refocus attention.

Robert Fisk, with his characteristic penchant for detail and specificity, was quick to do exactly that: "Despite rumours to the contrary," he wrote, "she told me on the phone, she was not a spy but a mere attaché, wanting only to chat about the future of Lebanon. These were kidnapping days in the Lebanese capital, when to be seen with the wrong luncheon companion could finish in a basement in south Beirut. I trusted this woman. I was wrong. She arrived with two armed British bodyguards who sat at the next table. Within minutes of sitting down at a fish restaurant in the cliff-top Raouche district, she started plying me with questions about Hezbollah's armaments in southern Lebanon. I stood up and walked out. Hezbollah had two men at another neighbouring table. They called on me next morning. No problem, they said, they saw me walk out. But watch out… That was some 30 years ago. And then up pops the very same cable on Wikileaks, breathlessly highlighted by The New York Times and its dwarf the International Herald Tribune, as if this is an extraordinary scoop."

It has been simply fascinating and mind-boggling to watch US leadership – from Joe Biden to Hillary Clinton – initially denounce Wikileaks in the name of an non-existent "international community", and then attempt to minimise the genuineness of the documents, while at the same time using their considerable influence to destroy Wikileaks financially and technically, and, finally, try to find a law which can be used to bring the head of Wikileaks to America for a trial.

The writer is a freelance columnist. Email: quantumnotes@gmail.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

'I SCORN THEIR HATRED'

MIR ADNAN AZIZ

Augustus Germanicus, known as Caligula, was the third emperor of the Roman Empire. He was famous for prolonging the sufferings of his victims by inflicting on them frequently repeated strokes. His constant order was: "Strike so that he may feel himself die." Once, having punished one man for another by mistake, he said, "He deserved it quite as much." And while he supervised that punishment, he kept repeating the words of the Roman tragedian Lucius Accius: "Oderint dum metuant" – "I scorn their hatred, if they do but fear me." 

Oderint dum metuant seems the prevailing US mindset with so much of the misery wrought by the interventionist policy of the United States. "Illegal" and "violation of human rights" are mild words for a war that has resulted in murder, torture, rendition flights, kidnappings, invasions and occupations. 

The Afghanistan Policy Review sees Pakistan once again being coaxed to do (yet) more by expanding the war to North Waziristan. President Obama's latest statement, "In Pakistan, we are laying the foundation for a strategic partnership based on mutual respect and trust..." (read, oderint dum metuant) was followed by Vice President Joe Biden's oracle that Al-Qaedah was trying to bring down a nuclear-armed Pakistan! Not surprisingly, it came on the heels of Prime Minister Wen Jiabo's visit. The 2009 Pew Global Attitudes Survey saw 80 per cent of Pakistanis view China as a partner with only nine per cent (one wonders who they were) view the US similarly.

Cocooned in a time warp, the US still lives in the Truman years. President Truman, who ordered the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atomic bombs, also authored the Truman Doctrine, arrogating to the US the right to intervene in the internal affairs of other nations to help preserve regimes deemed "friendly" to American interests. Invoking the spectre of interventions, the US became a global patron of repressive, reactionary regimes. Today this doctrine has been conveniently rephrased as the "war on terror." In this garb it is now being ruthlessly used for occupations and to further American agendas globally. 

What the US fails to understand is that by befriending individuals or brutally repressive dictators, in countries it occupies or remote-controls, it has ended up with alienated masses and hostile democracies. It also fails to comprehend that they produced hatred and alienation in the ordinary people when it micromanages political outcomes and props up "assets." This has led to any sort of political US footprint offending the masses, more so in the Muslim world. 

This, however, has not been a deterrent for the endless queue of individuals wanting that US kiss of (political) death. The allure has not diminished in spite of the fate suffered by the Shah of Iran, Britain's Tony Blair, Spain's Jose Maria Anzar, Australia's John Howard, Germany's Gerhard Schroeder, Japan's Shinzo Abe, George Bush and, above all, our own Mr Musharraf (whose only friends at the end were his Pekingese, Dot and Bundy).

Their demise cannot be more telling than these words of Sheikh Saadi: "He who, when he hath the power, doeth not good, when he loses the means will suffer distress. There is not a more unfortunate wretch than the oppressor; for in the day of adversity nobody is his friend."

It would also be pertinent to mention here that the majority does not accept the premise of terror being the greatest threat. A host of eminent individuals and think-tanks present an absolutely different picture of the fundamental threats we all face. This has been summarised in Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World by the Oxford Research Group. It says that the real global threats will come from four interconnected trends: Climate change, competition over resources, marginalisation of the majority world, and global militarisation. The United States actually precipitates all four counts that are a real threat to the world.

The hackneyed War on Terror, brought about by the flying schools of Florida, has brought nothing but hatred, insecurity, alienation and anarchy. The much touted ultimate goal of this war was to re-establish peace and security. What we see. Instead, is what Voltaire said in The Lisbon Disaster: "Come, ye philosophers, who cry, all is well and contemplate this ruin of a world." 

Both wisdom and humility suggest that war is not the only template; ultimately conflicts require political solutions. It is also extremely unfortunate that, for want of a (US) win narrative, we see this war's escalation by default. Seeking to avoid conflict and confrontation is neither weakness and appeasement, nor an abdication of morality. Countries at war do talk to each other, and so do states and violent non-state actors.

The Irish Republican Army (IRA) only agreed to disarm after the British and Irish paramilitary group talks concluded with the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. By now we could have had relative peace in the Middle East had the US and Israel accepted and engaged the elected Hamas government positively. This holds true for Iran too.

We saw the peaceful end of a seemingly never-ending South African Apartheid. In the United States itself, sea-change in race relationships started when Martin Luther King changed the paradigm of the issue. He had a dream of "black and white walking hand in hand," replacing the otherwise violent struggle against racism. That shift, no longer a dream, has brought America its first non-white president; an ultimate tribute to the power of peaceful means. 

The writer is a freelance contributor. Email: miradnanaziz@gmail.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

MEDIA AND THE NATION

SHAFQAT MAHMOOD

How many of our problems are real and others overhyped by the media? And how many of our successes are going unsung because the media tends to ignore them?

This and other such thoughts came to me after two recent encounters. A reporter from Radio Pakistan called and wanted a brief response to some questions on the current political situation. Fair enough, I thought. If the government radio people really want an honest opinion, why not.

The questions, when they came, reflected a government line that was obviously being hawked on institutions under its control. I was asked, isn't it true that the departure of the JUI-F from the government is a non-event and has been overhyped by the media to suggest a political crisis?... 

A few days later, at a sunny lunch in a well appointed garden, some friends, who have held important ministerial positions in the past, said something similar. This time, not on the JUI-F's departure or on politics but generally about the media's tendency to highlight the negative and overlook the positive. 

These people were no admirers of the Zardari regime and were reflecting a common complaint. In fact, it would be fair to say that ten years after the electronic media exploded – there are about thirty news channels reporting round the clock, seven days a week – the stock of the media, at least among the intelligentsia, is pretty low.

While the viewership is still quiet high of the talk shows, there is also a growing cynicism about what is said and weariness with what is often described as poor-quality discussions. Perhaps the general sameness of the talk show format on most channels and similar guest lists may be a put-off, but there is more.

The depressing nature of the message seeping through is because the focus is on state and politics, and relatively little on society. While both politics and our governing institutions are a disaster area, there is much good that is being done by ordinary people. 

It is a point of pride, for example, that Pakistan has one of highest rates of philanthropic giving in the world. Institutions like the Edhi Trust or the Shaukat Khanum hospital are well known examples of giving, but there are many, many more. 

One gentleman I know gave Rs200 million of his own money to an educational institution. Many hospitals, schools, and social-welfare institutions are being entirely run on donations not from abroad but from here. 

Foreign donor money is also flowing in but it seldom reaches smaller outfits beyond the bigger cities. The only exceptions perhaps are some madressahs, but generally there is more going on these places than philanthropy. It is the unknown organisations in smaller cities running a multiplicity of welfare institutions that are truly heart-warming.

This may not be news to the media, but it is a message that needs airing to balance the failures of state and politics. It is also necessary to go beyond the Islamabad-centric mindset. It is not hard to imagine that sitting in the newsrooms of the capital, any political blow-up appears to be big. 

But to discuss it endlessly and seek hidden meanings where none exists is also boring after a while. Particularly when every channel is having the same discussion and, thanks to juggled hours of taping, the same guest seen holding forth on multiple channels simultaneously. 

In terms of ratios, the shenanigans of politicians need to be given a shorter space than serious challenges to the economy or governance. It is rare to see a truly informed discussion on economic issues, and by people who know what they are talking about. Even when this happens, there is generally little research informing the questions or the direction of the discussion. 

One of things that has been bothering me about the economy, for instance, is the difference between the economic reporting in the media and anecdotal evidence I gather talking to industry and agriculture people. The common theme among the agriculturists is that they have never had it so good. The prices of cotton, sugar cane and other commodities are high and the crop this year not bad. 

The industrialists, while not over the moon, express quiet satisfaction about how their particular industry is doing. This is true of textiles, engineering, and pharmaceuticals, to name a few. Real estate is down and has been for sometime, but its slide may be a correction because it was overhyped before. I don't know much about retail business but, considering that few are closing down, it cannot be that bad.

The main point is that while macroeconomic indicators are awful and we keep hearing horror stories of a meltdown, why is this not being substantiated by anecdotal evidence? Here is something that the media needs to explore. Lay people like me who do not understand economics very much need to be informed about the seeming disconnect between looming apocalypse of the state and no real panic among the people.

Without wanting to labour the point too much, another seeming anomaly is between the ground situation and employment. On the face of it, given poverty statistics, people should be knocking down doors whenever an employment opportunity opens up.

In reality, that only happens with government jobs. People see them as a free ride, with little work and, in lower scales, a better pay package than the market. There is not that much enthusiasm visible in private-sector jobs or for employment in domestic service.

This is not to belittle the statistics or economic theory but a genuine befuddlement at what should be and what is. This is something that the media should get into by going beyond the statistics and trying to figure out what exactly is happening in the job market. It would then be educating confused folks like me. 

It is early days for our media and, over time, the degree of professionalism is bound to improve. It is doing a great job in holding the government to account and, were it not for its exposures, more damage would have been inflicted. 

But crooked and incompetent bureaucrats and politicians are not the only story in town. Neither are the latest pyrotechnics of the arch politician, Fazlur Rehman. There is more to this country than such people, and good news is also news. Let us begin to, at least occasionally, put our best foot forward.

This is particularly true at a time when our global image is at the lowest ebb. Because of the internet, people everywhere read and can see what we think of our country. While the bad should not be hidden, there is a need to balance it with true of stories of courage, fortitude and caring.

shafqatmd@gmail.com 

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

FAITHFUL CHOICES

HARRIS KHALIQUE

Change is inevitable but this is not inevitable that this change is for public good. Even if it is, it is not sustainable. This remains the case for both women and religious minorities in Pakistan. Those who want a healthy, dynamic and rational society to be built in this country, free of all hatred, prejudices and oppression, continue to strive for changes in our constitution, law books, educational curriculum and social attitudes. 

And while the obscurantist interpreters of the dominant faith make leaps with their desire to take this society back into the medieval age, the progressive forces only manage to inch forward. Because again and again, the powerful institutions of the state of Pakistan and their allies in the media push them back, be it those who matter in the government and judiciary or some self-proclaimed saviours of the nation who ride the primetime airwaves of powerful Urdu-language private television. 

Some developments over the past few weeks and days provide ample evidence to what I submit. While MNA Sherry Rehman of the ruling PPP wants blasphemy laws to be amended with a number of enlightened Muslim scholars besides others on her side, the law minister of the PPP government, Babar Awan, declared that no changes can ever be imagined until he is holding his office. So forget about the right wing political parties gearing up and planning to take out processions in favour of the misconceived law, the relevant arm of the government has already dismissed any changes. 

If some procedural changes, mind you procedural and not substantive, are even introduced by a parliamentary committee formed recently and get approved, they could still be challenged in the courts. See what has happened just a day back with the Protection of Women (Criminal Laws Amendment) Act, 2006. The Federal Shariat Court has found three sections of the said law to be violative of the constitution and its Islamic injunctions. 

So forget about any movement towards the repeal of the Hudood laws, against which the women of this country struggled for decades. Even the women's protection act that they were finally able to negotiate with the powers that be to provide relief to hundreds of victims, has been found to be against the supreme law of the land. 

A couple of other political developments are also interesting to note. JUI, led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, withdraws its support to the PPP-led coalition government protesting against the removal of his party comrade and said to be a key financier, Azam Swati, from his ministerial office. Swati squabbled with Hamid Saeed Kazmi, the PPP religious affairs minister, who is also sacked after a Hajj scam. But Fazlur Rehman decides that his confidante Maulana Sheerani will continue to head the Islamic Ideology Council. This is the place where our laws and policies are whetted from a religious lens. 

The other related incident, I say related because the Hajj issue was highlighted by an unprecedented letter written to our chief justice by a Saudi prince, is Saudi Arabia's desire to introduce the same religious curricula in Pakistani public and private schools which is taught in their country. 

Fundamental choices are to be made in Pakistan. What threat Islam would face in a Muslim-majority country? Who would ever question the universal values of the faith? But those who wish to use dated jurisprudence and orthodox cultural practices in the name of religion to gain political power will be irrelevant if all discriminatory and divisive articles and laws in our constitution and law books are purged. 

The writer is an Islamabad-based poet, political analyst and advisor on public policy. Email: harris. khalique@gmail.com

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

WORDS OF WISDOM OF SHAUKAT AZIZ

 

FORMER Prime Minister Shaukaz Aziz, who is an economic wizard par excellence, has emphasized the need of benefiting from China's development experience. Speaking at a meeting of IBA Alumni's UAE Chapter in Dubai he called for institutionalizing ties with our great neighbour, which is trusted friend of the country. He also talked about the economic issues, their solution and challenges facing Pakistan and the region, giving his perspective of how best to address them.

Shaukat Aziz is widely respected not only in the country but also among economic managers of the world because of his rich knowledge and experience and a visionary approach. It was because of his bold and innovative approach that both in his capacities as Finance Minister and then Prime Minister he was able to lay solid foundations for economic take-off. There are numerous instances of his successes but currency exchange rate, inflation, foreign exchange reserves and phenomenal growth in IT and Telecom are undeniable proofs of his appreciable managerial skills. People were apprehending seven years back that the rupee-dollar parity would cross 100 rupee mark but he successfully managed to keep it around Rs 56 and 58 and he countered manoeuvres by hoarders, black marketeers and profiteers, foiling their attempts to engineer shortage of commodities and hike their prices artificially, as we are witnessing these days. There is, therefore, every reason to pay heed to the words of wisdom of the former Prime Minister, whose policies and actions greatly benefited the people of Pakistan. Pakistan is facing multifarious challenges these days and there is no harm in giving serious consideration to sagacious proposals that could help overcome the situation. His advice about learning lesson from China's experience is quite relevant as we have so far not been able to transform the exemplary political relationship into a deeper economic engagement that could put the country on Chinese development path. We would also suggest that a culture should be developed wherein the country should benefit from the knowledge and experience of respected figures and personalities in different spheres of life.

 

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

WIDEN NET OF BB MURDER CASE

 

IN a somewhat dramatic development, the Anti-Terrorist Court (ATC) No. III, Rawalpindi on Wednesday rejected bail applications of former City Police Officer Saud Aziz and former SP Rawal Town for being allegedly involved in Benazir Bhutto's assassination. Both were arrested from courtroom in Adiala Jail, where the trial was being conducted and now FIA would interrogate them.

One doesn't know whether or not it was a coincidence that the arrests were made on the eve of anniversary of BB's assassination, being observed on December 27, when the PPP leadership will have something concrete to satisfy their own workers, who wonder as to why the Government has not been able to make any progress despite being at the helm of affairs for about three years. Only time will tell whether these arrests would lead to some breakthrough in the case, which was undoubtedly an international conspiracy to deprive Pakistan of a leader of global stature and mature understanding. Both CPO and SP are accused of security flaws and hosing down the crime scene but it is obvious that they could not have done that (even if they did) on their own and they must have done at the instance of someone else. There is, therefore, a need to widen the scope of investigations to reach out to the hidden hand that planned and executed the conspiracy. No doubt, we have local investigations, Scotland Yard inquiry and UN report but unfortunately none of them has been able to answer all the questions that still agitate the minds of the people. There must not be attempts to make someone scapegoat and shield the real culprits, as lack of security and washing of the site are only two aspects of the complicated episode and indpeth investigations should be carried out to expose all those who were in any way associated with the murder plan. Closing of the case by punishing those who are said to be indirectly involved would be construed by masses as a sordid attempt to shield the real perpetrators of the crime.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

LEGISLATION FOR SENIOR CITIZENS RIGHTS

 

SENIOR Citizens Foundation of Pakistan has demanded of the Government to legislate the Senior Citizens Bill which is pending for the last ten years so as to provide a comprehensive social welfare system to the senior citizens. At a meeting on Wednesday, chaired by the most respected personality of the country Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Foundation demanded that the welfare system and the policy framework in the Bill should be such that it provides adequate representation to Senior Citizens bodies.

Senior citizens have worked all their life and contributed for the society and the country. They constitute a precious reservoir of human resource which is gifted with knowledge of various sorts, varied experiences and deep insights. Maybe they have formally retired, yet an overwhelming majority of them are physically fit, mentally alert and in a position to make significant contribution to the socio-economic development of the nation. This participation would result in an end to their social isolation and an increase in their general satisfaction with their life. Ageing is a natural process, which inevitably occurs in human life cycle and every one will have to face this reality. It brings a host of challenges in the life of the elderly, which are mostly engineered by the changes in their body, mind, thought process and the living patterns. There had been off and on cosmetic talk of providing facilities to the senior citizens like special treatment in hospitals but practically nothing is on the ground. Enacting legislation for ensuring compulsory geriatric care in all the public hospitals is the need of the hour. The Government therefore must create separate facilities in hospitals for the senior citizens who deserve to be treated with compassion, respect and dignity. Understandably, given its limited resources, one cannot expect the Government to meet all the needs of one million senior citizens but it can at least improve the situation. To get the legislation through, we would advise the Foundation to constitute special groups to pursue the issue with the Government and the Members of Parliament. We are confident that under the dynamic leadership of Dr A.Q.Khan, who is held in high esteem, the Foundation can do a lot for the amelioration of the senior citizens

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

THE BEST "MUSLIM" POLICY FOR INDIA

GEOPOLITICAL NOTES FROM INDIA

M D NALAPAT

 

It used to be said that Joe Biden was the only US Senator who was not a millionaire. Now, he is the Vice-President. Unlike Dick Cheney, who was in the same office when huge contracts got awarded in Iraq to a company that he had been closely associated with, Biden stays clear of commerce. Had he been a politician in India, here too he would have been the exception. For there is no easier way to fabulous riches in India than through politics. In the present Manmohan Singh government, almost all the ministers are super-affluent. Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar (the President of the International Cricket Council) is even richer than former PM of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif or present President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari, as are several of his Cabinet colleagues (even though most conceal their wealth through "benami" entities). Unlike most other politicians, Pawar is open about his wealth and his lifestyle, perhaps the reason why he is still popular in his home state of Maharashtra - the state that has given the world Sunil Gavaskar and Sachin Tendulkar. 

In a polity which has multiple parties, even a 3% margin can make the difference between electoral defeat and a landslide. This is the reason why parties other than the few "Hindutva" parties ( who may be compared to the "Islam Pasanda" parties in Pakistan) are so eager to win over the Muslims. Now comprising 16% of the population of the Union of India, the Muslim community has understood the power of the ballot, and participates in the electoral process far more effectively than many other communities. The problem facing the Congress Party is that the Muslim vote is divided between itself and other non-Hindutva parties, such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (United). Unless the Congress Party can convince the Muslim community that it can represent its interests better than any other, Rahul Gandhi's dream of ensuring a majority in Parliament for his party will remain unattained.

Just as Bilawal Bhutto will inherit the Pakistan Peoples Party, so will Rahul Gandhi take over the Congress Party after the retirement of his mother Sonia Gandhi. It must be said that Sonia has ensured that the party remain wedded to her branch of the Nehru family, and not slip into the hands of outsiders. In 1997, when then Congress President Sitaram Kesri came back from the toilet during a meeting of the Congress Working Committe, he discovered to his shock that in the twelve minutes that he had been absent from the meeting, the CWC had ousted him and brought Sonia Gandhi in as the new chief. Kesri had no option but to leave the office, his political career at an end. Since then, Sonia Gandhi has ensured a firm grip over the Congress Party, and has since then been able to change Cabinet ministers and Chief Ministers at will. Any sign of disloyalty to her and her two children Rahul and Priyanka are punished with immediate removal from office. Because their power and prosperity depends on their obedience to Sonia, the Congress Party "leaders" (although this name may be inaccurate, given that they are all essentially courtiers trembling in fear of "Madam") seek to diligently obey her commands. Few of these seem to have much relation to governance, for the administration of India has gone from bad to awful during the six years that Sonia Gandhi has (in effect) led the government.

The super-rich are not complaining. Indeed, they publicly regard the Congress Party as "Hamara Dukaan" (Our Shop). Huge conglomerates have been speculating in food and vegetables, sending prices through the roof without a whimper of protest from the government. Road and highway construction has slowed to a crawl, while their quality has sharply deteriorated. Procedures have become even more cumbersome. Recently, some individuals who had registered a company some years ago wanted to shut it down. During its existence, the company did not make a single transaction. The directors submitted applications for shutting it down in Delhi, paying for the appropriate stamp paper. Months later, their application was rejected because "the stamp paper was not purchased from the same state as where the company is registered". Each bureaucratic hurdle means more palms to be greased, which is why a career in administration in India is the second-fastest route to riches, after politics. Rahul Gandhi is working on crafting a plan that would ensure a majority for his party in the next elections. Key to this is winning over the Muslims, which is why he has been making extra efforts to convince the community that he is their trusted ally. He has gone to the extent of saying that some Hindu groups are even more dangerous than the Lashkar-e-Toiba, a statement that has hurt his popularity not just with Hindus but with Muslims as well, few of whom have any sympathy for the Lashkar. Although they keep demanding that the international community delink India from Pakistan, yet many non-Hindutva politicians implicitly link the two countries together,and make the (wrong) assumption that Pakistan is a major factor in the consciousness of the Muslim community in India. In order to show the Muslims that the Samajwadi Party (SP) cares for them much more than the Congress does, an SP leader (Azam Khan) recently denied that Kashmir was a part of India, to the horror of his audience. These days, as they spend more time in Dubai than they do in Delhi, several politicians get confused and sometimes forget that they are in India, the way Azam Khan did when he made that statement, one tailor-made for the BJP and the Shiv Sena, which lost no time in condemning it as anti-national. A few hours after saying in a public eeting - and on television - that Kashmir was not a part of India, Azam Khan realized that he was not in the UAE but in India, and immediately retracted the comment.

Because they spend so little time in India, senior politicians in this country fail to understand that India is not Saudi Arabia or Pakistan. In both these countries,Muslims are treated as superior to people belonging to other communities.In Saudi Arabia, the compensation given to a Muslim male is much more than that given to a non-Muslim male or a female. Visitors from Pakistan, living as they do in a country which is open about being a Muslim state, are often horrified by the fact that Indian Muslims have to live in a country where pork and alchohol are freely available, and where more women wear denims than put on the burkha. It is this columnist's view that it is wrong on the part of state authorities in Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Afghanistan to impose dress codes on people, and who use the laws of the state to prevent alchohol from being sold. There is a difference between doing something out of conviction and doing something for fear of police conviction. In countries that legally ban alchohol, the liquid is freely available. And who has not been in aircraft leaving Saudi Arabia and Iran, where ladies throw away their veils as soon as they get airborne and disembark in jeans and even in short pants? Such matters are best left to individual conscience rather than to law, which is why it is a pity that even in India, there are states such as Kashmir and Gujarat that seek to legislate behaviour in the Saudi or Iranian manner.

While a few Muslims in India are nostalgic about countries where Muslims are given more privileges than those of other faiths ( provided they abide by very strict dress and other codes), almost all of India's vibrant Muslim community is happy to belong to a secular state. They seek no special privilege, only security and the chance to improve their lives. Hence, the efforts by politicians such as Azam Khan to make the Muslims of India feel different from the rest of the population are likely to get a cold reception. It is a treat to watch young Muslim girls going to school and college, laughing and walking with students who are Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain or Sikh rather than move separately from the others. Two days ago, in Mumbai, another Indian boy made history. 13-year old Armaan Gaffar struck 77 boundaries in 490 balls before getting out at a score of 498. There is no doubt that he may become the next Sachin Tendulkar, something that will make his uncle, Test cricketeerr Wasim Jafar, proud.

Armaan is on the way to becoming an Indian icon, the way tennis sensation Sania Mirza is a national icon. Sania exemplifies the fact that it is possible to be a good Muslim and a modern person. Indeed, throughout India, Muslims are emerging as among the most forward-looking of communities, working to ensure good education and healthcare. An example is in school educationion. A top construction magnate in Bangalore, Irfan Razack, has teamed up with Nooraine Fazal, a young Muslim lady (who used to work in Reuters Hong Kong) to set up Inventure Academy, a school that trains modern minds to question and create. The atmosphere at the school is liberal without slackening of discipline, the way it should be. Sadly, rather than seek to win over such Muslims - who comprise the overwhelming majority – several political leaders who are more familiar with London or Miami than with India chase after conservative fanatics, who seek to box Muslims off from the modern world and thereby preventing them from competing. The best "Muslim" policy for an Indian leader would be to promote inclusive economic progress, but for this to happen, that leader would have to do away with the stifling system of regulations that generate bribes for officials and politicians but tears for others.

Any country that emphasizes religion and which seeks to use the force of law to enforce codes best left to individual consciences is in danger of falling behind. In India, the Muslim community has begun to shun those who shed crocodile tears for them. A few months ago, in Bihar, the ruling coalition secured an impressive victory, because it is running a reasonably honest and efficient administration. That is all that the people seek. And that is what politicians refuse to give them.

—The writer is Vice-Chair, Manipal Advanced Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair & Professor of Geopolitics, Manipal University, Haryana State, India

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLES

US CONTEMPLATING RAIDS IN PAKISTAN

SULTAN M HALI

 

A number of pieces of the puzzle fell into place when the media learnt that the senior military leadership in Afghanistan was propagating that the path to victory in Afghanistan lay through ground attacks in alleged miscreant hideouts in Pakistan. The US media has been continually hinting towards the so called frustrations of the US towards Pakistan, regarding Pakistan's supposed reluctance to root out militants in its tribal areas. The "New York Times", which some people consider as the mouthpiece of Capitol Hill discloses a plan to launch attacks in Pakistan's tribal regions. The daily lets on that the proposed plan has not been approved yet but with the deadline of the commencement of the withdrawal of US forces approaching closer, a sense of urgency is being felt. Gung-ho US analysts are opining that despite the risks involved in military operations inside Pakistan, the use of American Special Operations troops in Pakistan's tribal regions could bring an intelligence windfall, if militants were captured, brought back across the border into Afghanistan and interrogated. Perhaps these armchair analysts are oblivious of the history of the tribal region. It is fraught with perils for every invader; and history is replete with examples where ambitions of would be conquerors were buried forever in the hostile terrain. It is not that the US troops have not attempted forays across the border into Pakistan. Each has resulted in disaster. The latest on September 30 this year brought such a backlash from Pakistani forces as well as the people that the US had to beat a hasty retreat in any plans to continue with operations ingressing across the Durand Line. The episode infuriated Pakistan's government, which temporarily shut down American military supply routes into Pakistan. Several fuel trucks sitting at the border were destroyed by insurgents, and American officials publicly apologized. Two years earlier, in September 2008, American commandos carried out a raid in Pakistan's tribal areas and killed several people suspected of being insurgents. The episode led to outrage among Pakistan's leaders — and warnings not to try again. It really is not understood how US defence planners have concluded that there is now a shift in policy and Pakistanis would welcome any adventurism in their sovereign territory.

If lessons have not been learnt from the disastrous results of the CIA-operated drone attacks in the region, then the US has only itself to blame. America's clandestine war in Pakistan has for the most part been carried out by armed drones operated by the C.I.A. Additionally, in recent years; Afghan militias backed by the C.I.A. have carried out a number of secret missions into Pakistan's tribal areas. These operations in Pakistan by Afghan operatives, known as Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams, have been previously reported as solely intelligence-gathering operations. The decision to expand American military activity in Pakistan, which would almost certainly have to be approved by President Obama himself, would amount to the opening of a new front in the war in Afghanistan, which enters its tenth year and has become highly unpopular with US citizens. It would run the risk of angering a Pakistani government that has been an uneasy ally in the war in Afghanistan, particularly if it leads to civilian casualties or highly public confrontations. The drone attacks have caused a different type of backlash, in which a resident of the tribal region, Karim Khan, also a journalist has filed a lawsuit against the CIA and named the head of the intelligence agency in Pakistan, blowing his cover. Resultantly, Jonathan Banks, the CIA operative, who was named in the lawsuit by the plaintiff, had to beat a hasty retreat to safer climes to escape from the wrath of an angered group of survivors of the drone attacks, who are baying for an end to the death from the skies.

It is not that Washington does not have sane elements who will weigh the option of launching forays into Pakistan very carefully. Ground operations in Pakistan remain controversial in Washington, and there may be a debate over the proposal. One senior administration official said he was not in favor of cross-border operations — which he said have been generally "counterproductive" — unless they were directed against top leaders of Al Qaeda. He expressed concern that political fallout in Pakistan could negate any tactical gains. Still, one senior American officer said, "We've never been as close as we are now to getting the go-ahead to go across."

The best bet for the US is to understand the security imperatives for Pakistan, whose ground forces are already outstretched. They have been deployed in Swat and South Waziristan, areas, that have been cleared of miscreants but are fraught with danger until a civilian infrastructure of law and order is in place. Nearly 150,000 Pakistani troops have been deployed in the region. Additionally, the hostile attitude of Pakistan's eastern neighbour precludes the necessity of placing sufficient troops along the Line of Control in Kashmir to thwart any adventurism by India. The US should contemplate capacity building of Pakistani troops to tackle the miscreants in the area suspected of harbouring miscreants, which would be more productive in the longer run rather than sending US troops. Even before finalizing any plans to increase raids across the border, the Obama administration has already stepped up its air assaults in the tribal areas with an unprecedented number of C.I.A. drone strikes this year. Since September, the spy agency has carried out more than 50 drone attacks in North Waziristan and elsewhere — compared with 60 strikes in the preceding eight months. Instead of challenging Pakistan's sovereignty, the US is advised to work with its ally Pakistan to eliminate common enemies.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

GOOD DEEDS ARE REWARDED IN ISLAM

THE SPIRIT OF ISLAM

ATIF NOOR KHAN

 

Allah bestows love on those who believe and work deeds of righteousness (Qur'an 19:96). He is the Rabb (Only Cherisher and Sustainer) of Grace, Abounding (Qur'an 57:29). He listens to those who believe and do deeds of righteousness and gives them an increase of His Bounty (42:26). He grants the need of every creature (55:29). His bounties are not closed to any one (17:20). This is the reason why non-Muslims who desire and work for material prosperity, fame and other worldly needs in this world attain success in this temporary life. They receive Allah's reward for any righteous deed or virtuous act done in this world. If they desire happiness in this present world and work for it, Allah grants them their needs. However, their rewards will only be temporary because they do not meet the following conditions by which good deeds are rewarded both in this present life and in the eternal life Hereafter:

First is the belief in Tawhîd (Oneness of Allah). Allah says: "...But if they had joined in worship others with Allah, all that they used to do would have been of no benefit to them." (6:88). "Say (O Muhammad): "I am but a man like yourselves, (but) the inspiration has come to me, that your God is One God: whoever expects to meet His Rabb, let him work righteousness, and in the worship of his Rabb, admit no one as partner." (18:110). And indeed it has been revealed to you (O Muhammad PBUH), as it was to those (Allah's Messengers) before you: "If you join others in worship with Allah, (then) surely (all) your deeds will be in vain, and you will certainly be among the losers." (39:65). 

Second is Ikhlas (Sincerity) to Allah which means to do good deeds purely for the pleasure of Allah and not out of self-conceit to seek appreciation or praise from people. Allah and His Messenger tell us: "Say, 'Verily, I am commanded to serve Allah with sincere devotion.'" (39:14). "Call then upon Allah with sincere devotion to Him even though the Unbelievers may detest it." (40:14). 'Umar ibn Al-Khattabt said: I heard Allah's Messenger saying, "The reward of deeds depends upon the intentions and every person will get the reward according to what he has intended. Thus he whose migration was for Allah and His Messenger, his migration had been for Allah and His Messenger, and he whose migration was to achieve some worldly benefit or take some woman in marriage, his migration had been for that for which he migrated." (Bukhari 1/1 and Muslim 3/ 4692). 

Third is that deeds must be in accordance with the Qur'an and the Sunnah. Allah makes it clear: "O you who believe! Obey Allah and obey the Messenger (Muhammad PBUH) and render not vain your deeds." (47:33). The third condition implies that we Muslims should refrain from committing Bid'ah (innovation or fabrication in religion). We should know that Islam is a perfect religion. It is not only complete, but applies to all generations at all times, under any circumstances. The Prophet serves as the best example for all of us. He not only stresses the importance of knowing and holding on to the Qur'an and Sunnah, but also warns us to avoid Bid'ah (innovation or fabrication) in our religion. Jabir ibn 'Abdullah t narrated that Allah's Messenger said, "The best speech is that embodied in the Book of Allah, and the best guidance is the guidance given by Muhammad (PBUH). The most evil affairs are their innovations; and every innovation is an error." (Muslim 1885). The three conditions by which good deeds are rewarded in Islam imply that only those who sincerely accept and practice Islam will have their rewards with Allah in the Hereafter. Allah stresses: "If anyone desires a religion other than Islam (submission to Allah), never will it be accepted of him; and in the Hereafter he will be in the ranks of those who have lost (all spiritual good)." (3:85)

It is very clear that those who practice other ways of life outside Islam will have grievous punishments in Hell-Fire. The ways are: Shirk (polytheism), Nifaq (hypocrisy), Bid'ah (innovation in religion) and Kufr (disbelief or rejection of truth). The hypocrites and the non-Muslims must sincerely turn to Islam, as it is the only way to salvation. Verily, the polytheists, the hypocrites, the innovators in religion and the unbelievers will go to Hell-Fire, if they die in non-Islamic way or condition: "And that He may punish the Hypocrites, men and women and the Polytheists, men and women, who imagine an evil opinion of Allah. On them is a round of Evil, the Wrath of Allah is on them. He has cursed them and got Hell ready for them, and evil is it for a destination." (48:6). "Those, who disbelieve in Islam from among the People of the Book and among the Polytheists, will be in Hell-Fire to dwell therein forever. They are the worst of creatures." (98:6). "Do then those who disbelieve think that they can take my servants as protectors besides Me? Verily, We have prepared Hell as an entertainment for the disbelievers." (18:102).

We, Muslims, must thank Allah for guiding us to Islam. We should see to it that everything we think, say and do is done sincerely for Allah. We should dedicate everything to Allah: "Say: 'Truly my prayer and my service of sacrifice, my life and my death, are (all) for Allah, the Rabb (Only God, Cherisher and Sustainer) of the Worlds." (6:162). We should follow the Qur'an and Sunnah and refrain from Bid'ah, hypocrisy, show-off and any un-Islamic deed that will displease Allah. We should be God-conscious and God-fearing at all times. We must remember that Allah has appointed two angels for each and every one of us. One angel sits on the right and one on the left (to record all our deeds) (50:17). The following authentic Hadîth tells us the recording of both the good and bad deeds: Abû Hurairah t narrated that the Prophet r said, "Allah ordered (the appointed angels over you) that the good and the bad deeds be written. He then showed (the way) how (to write). If somebody intends to do a good deed and he does not do it, then Allah will write for him a full good deed (in his account with Him). If he intends to do a good deed and actually did it, then Allah will write for him (in his account) with Him (its reward equal) from ten to seven hundred times to many more times. If somebody intended to do a bad deed and he does not do it, then Allah will write a full good deed (in his account) with Him; and if he intended to do it (a bad deed) and actually did it, then Allah will write one bad deed (in his account)." (Bukhari 8/498 and 9/592) 

On the Day of Judgment everything will be accounted. Anyone who has done an atom's weight of good and an atom's weight of evil shall see it (99:6-8). Allah will take account everything on the scales of justice so that not a soul will be dealt with unjustly in the least (21:47). Allah will reward all of us Muslims who follow the Qur'an and Sunnah and do good deeds solely for His Pleasure. He will reward us, if not in this world, then surely in the

Hereafter.

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

16 Dec 1971 and emerging realities

Qudrat Ullah

 

December 16, 1971 is the turning point of Bengali Muslim Nationalism based on more than two decade long perceived political deprivation and frustration of Bengalis against West Pakistani Establishment. This day is equally important for both parts of once united Pakistan, but for totally different reasons. Bengalis celebrate it as national day of rejoice and salvation from Western part while the minority population takes it as a day of national mourning. With the passage of time, Bengalis' antagonistic approach towards Pakistan has refused to die; rather it has taken new turns. Bangladesh Government uses these emotions of hate against Pakistan as strong symbol of national pride and a force- multiplier for the country while portraying India as their most trusted friend in the region. However, in dealing with India, Bangladesh's position appears naive and devoid of ground realities. They have failed to study Indian treatment of its neighbors in the historical perspective. May be Awami League is using tacit Indian support and covert aid to keep Pakistan at a bay in South Eastern region. This further strengthens Indian's hegemonic designs.

Historically speaking, Bangladesh is a constant victim of Nehru's India Doctrine. Nehru's Doctrine came from his inherent conviction in the 'Akhand Bharat'; Mrs. Indira Gandhi mildly called it as 'Rama Raja.' This Doctrine says, "India will inevitably exercise an important influence. India will also develop as the centre of economic and political activity in the Indian Ocean area. The small national state is doomed. It may survive as a culturally autonomous area but not as an independent political unit." So the people of Bangladesh should remember that it's in fact India which is their real enemy.

On the other hand, collective psychology of Bengalis vis-à-vis West Pakistan, based on bitter memoirs of West Pakistanis' perceived exploit, should be a serious case-study for the Sociologists and political scientists in Universities. Our area study centers should conduct research on topics of Bengali Nationalism so that it could help the government to pacify the centrifugal forces in other provinces. It will also help Pakistani government to equally treat all of its federating units. 

Political history of modern day Bangladesh shows that post independence Bengali Nationalism harbingered by Awami League is heavily Pakistan-centric and their tremendous hatred for Pakistan, in the historical perspective, is the political source of power vis-à-vis Begum Khaleda Zia. Late Sh. Mugeeb ur Rehman used it to his political favor after coming to power in 1971 and his successors are also bent upon to strengthen their stay in power by wrongly sensitizing the nation about its bitter past before 1971. It also helps them in keeping the opponents at a sway. 

Hatred against Pakistan has always been the core component of Sh. Hasina Wajid led Awami League governments in Bangladesh after its separation from West Pakistan in 1971. This hate sentiment of 25 years long so called subjugation and economic slavery is continuously infused in the young minds through their biased educational system and now Bangladeshi media is doing the same job by portraying yesterday's fifth columnists as freedom fighters. On the other hand, Beharis who stood with the legitimate Government are living a dog's life in shanty towns and over-populated ghettos. They have no rights to live as a normal citizen.

India is the ultimate beneficiary of this beleaguered situation as Pakistani policy makers have totally forgotten and ignored their once population wise majority part. Regionalism is an ignored point in media and often it's done at the cost of vital national strategic interests. On the other hand, India's extended role in Afghanistan should be a core issue for our policy makers. Definite steps should be taken to counter Indian designs in Bangladesh and in Afghanistan by engaging pro-Pakistan and pro-Islamic elements there. 'India factor' should also be studied and policy making should be linked with research institutions. In this situation, Pakistani media and intellectuals have also failed to play their patriotic role in sensitizing the young Bengalis about Indian's treacherous role and its extended foreign policy options which have helped India at the cost of Bangladesh. India is fast working for the 'Akhand Bharat' and covertly striving to balkanize Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. In this situation, Pakistan should pool its options and resources to face the challenge. China will be a time tested ally in this situation. 

However, it is a pity to note that Pakistani media is oblivious to emerging pro-Indian trends in Subcontinent. Media muckraking is limited to criticizing the government. Pakistan's role and sacrifices in war against terror is often ignored. Same is the case of Indian involvement in terror related activities. India's extended role in Afghanistan is a great threat to Pakistan and regional peace. India is eagerly emerging as dominant regional power at the cost of Pakistan's strategic interests in the region while our policy makers and Establishment are caught napping. 21st is a century of new opportunities and economic realizations. Our youth should wake up to work for the cherished goal of 'Greater Pakistan' comprising present-day Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh; this can be done by creating economic confederation of these countries and collectively utilizing national resources for the benefit of these countries. Otherwise, India will eat up smaller countries one by one like it has eaten up Sikkim in the past.

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

WINNING THE CLASS WAR

BOB HERBERT

 

The class war that no one wants to talk about continues unabated. Even as millions of out-of-work and otherwise struggling Americans are tightening their belts for the holidays, the nation's elite are lacing up their dancing shoes and partying like royalty s the millions and billions keep rolling in. 

Recessions are for the little people, not for the corporate chiefs and the titans of Wall Street who are at the heart of the American aristocracy. They have waged economic warfare against everybody else and are winning big time. The ranks of the poor may be swelling and families forced out of their foreclosed homes may be enduring a nightmarish holiday season, but American companies have just experienced their most profitable quarter ever. As The Times reported this week, U.S. firms earned profits at an annual rate of $1.659 trillion in the third quarter — the highest total since the government began keeping track more than six decades ago. The corporate fat cats are becoming alarmingly rotund. Their profits have surged over the past seven quarters at a pace that is among the fastest ever seen, and they can barely contain their glee. On the same day that The Times ran its article about the third-quarter surge in profits, it ran a piece on the front page that carried the headline: "With a Swagger, Wallets Out, Wall Street Dares to Celebrate." Anyone who thinks there is something beneficial in this vast disconnect between the fortunes of the American elite and those of the struggling masses is just silly. It's not even good for the elite.

There is no way to bring America's consumer economy back to robust health if unemployment is chronically high, wages remain stagnant and the jobs that are created are poor ones. Without ordinary Americans spending their earnings from good jobs, any hope of a meaningful, long-term recovery is doomed.

Beyond that, extreme economic inequality is a recipe for social instability. Families on the wrong side of the divide find themselves under increasing pressure to just hold things together: to find the money to pay rent or the mortgage, to fend off bill collectors, to cope with illness and emergencies, and deal with the daily doses of extreme anxiety.

Societal conflicts metastasize as resentments fester and scapegoats are sought. Demagogues inevitably emerge to feast on the poisonous stew of such an environment. The rich may think that the public won't ever turn against them. But to hold that belief, you have to ignore the turbulent history of the 1930s.

A stark example of the potential for real conflict is being played out in New York City, where the multibillionaire mayor, Michael Bloomberg, has selected a glittering example of the American aristocracy to be the city's schools chancellor. Cathleen Black, chairwoman of Hearst Magazines, has a reputation as a crackerjack corporate executive but absolutely no background in education. Ms. Black travels in the rarefied environs of the very rich. Her own children went to private boarding schools. She owns a penthouse on Park Avenue and a $4 million home in Southampton. She was able to loan a $47,600 Bulgari bracelet to a museum for an exhibit showing off the baubles of the city's most successful women. Ms. Black will be peering across an almost unbridgeable gap between her and the largely poor and working-class parents and students she will be expected to serve. Worse, Mr. Bloomberg, heralding Ms. Black as a "superstar manager," has made it clear that because of budget shortfalls she will be focused on managing cutbacks to the school system. So here we have the billionaire and the millionaire telling the poor and the struggling — the little people — that they will just have to make do with less. You can almost feel the bitterness rising.

Extreme inequality is already contributing mightily to political and other forms of polarization in the U.S. And it is a major force undermining the idea that as citizens we should try to face the nation's problems, economic and otherwise, in a reasonably united fashion. When so many people are tumbling toward the bottom, the tendency is to fight among each other for increasingly scarce resources.

What's really needed is for working Americans to form alliances and try, in a spirit of good will, to work out equitable solutions to the myriad problems facing so many ordinary individuals and families. Strong leaders are needed to develop such alliances and fight back against the forces that nearly destroyed the economy and have left working Americans in the lurch. Aristocrats were supposed to be anathema to Americans. Now, while much of the rest of the nation is suffering, they are the only ones who can afford to smile.

 

The NY Times.

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

TARGET DISABILITY SUPPORT TO THOSE WHO NEED IT MOST

 

IF a lack of employable skills is defined as a disability, then many among the 800,00 Australians of working age who are considered not fit enough to hold down a job are definitely disabled.

 

But while there is no debating the state's obligation to assist people whose physical or mental condition stops them from working, it is unacceptable that the Disability Support Pension, at nearly $690 a fortnight with supplementary payments, is used as a better-paying alternative to the $470 fortnightly unemployment benefit. As outgoing public service welfare chief Jeff Harmer warns, it is too easy for people to qualify for the $13 billion DSP program, and all but impossible to get anybody off it. The number of people on DSP grew by 43 per cent between 1997 and 2009.

 

This is not on. While labour shortages now are concentrated in skilled occupations, by the middle of the century there will be 1.8 million Australians aged over 85, meaning we will need many more semi-skilled and support workers to assist them. With the growth in DSP beneficiaries coming from older women, most of whom bring up families and care for their own parents, there will be work for many of them. And it is unacceptable to leave anybody capable of earning all, or even part, of their own income to exist in indolence. Work provides structure and purpose to life, and the disguised unemployed among DSP recipients have a right to help to re-enter the workforce. The fiction that only people who cannot work receive the DSP makes it harder for the needs of Australians with genuinely incapacitating physical and mental conditions to be accepted by society.

 

While Mr Harmer is right to call for reform, he knows it will require both carrots and sticks. In his 2009 review of the welfare system, he set out the sticks, calling for tightened access to the DSP program and more stringent requirements for beneficiaries to look for work. In particular he pointed to the old rule, which still widely applies, that people qualified for the payment if they were assessed as not being able to work, or undertake training, for 30 hours a week. Even though new applicants do not qualify now if they can work for 15 hours, this "still creates a strong incentive not to test the labour market", he wrote. The carrots are equally obvious: for people with few skills to work in low-paying jobs it must be worth their while, and that means ensuring they do not lose all public assistance and become worse off.

 

It is equally essential we help the 760,000 Australians under 65 who were born with a severe or profound disability, or acquired it through illness or accident. A national no-fault insurance scheme is the way to do it. The current legal lottery, where the courts order payments that range from the ridiculous for people whose disabilities are relatively minor to those that do not provide for life-long care, is inefficient and unjust. And there is no compensation for the plain bad luck of crippling illness. Before being promoted after the election, Bill Shorten did a good job as parliamentary secretary for disability programs. The impetus for reform he generated must not be lost before the Productivity Commission presents its report on a national scheme in July. We need to care for those in need, and encourage others to help themselves.

 

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

JUST 92 SLEEPS UNTIL POLLING DAY

 

CONSTITUTIONAL reformers who favour extending fixed four-year terms to the federal sphere and states such as Queensland should look at NSW to see the serious downsides of such a system.

 

While fixed four-year terms prevent political leaders calling elections to suit themselves at favourable points in the political cycle, they also force voters to put up with moribund governments long past their use-by dates. The people of NSW were ready to turf out the Labor government a year ago. Now a total of 22 government members have resigned or announced their intention to desert the sinking ship, and even Premier Kristina Keneally has had enough, advising Governor Marie Bashir to prorogue the state's 54th parliament weeks earlier than had been expected. But for all this, it's another three months -- 92 sleeps, but who's counting -- to polling day on March 26.

 

It is a credit to Ms Keneally's chutzpah that she still turns up to work after taking on the job as Premier in near-impossible circumstances a year ago. But she is stretching the bounds of credulity if she expects voters to believe that she did not have parliament prorogued in an arrogant attempt to kill off an upper-house inquiry into the controversial $5.3 billion sell-off of NSW electricity. Following her move, Ms Keneally produced advice from the Crown Solicitor that the inquiry cannot function. Under the circumstances, however, the opposition, the Greens and the inquiry's chair, Fred Nile, have right on their side in attempting to press ahead, relying on advice from the clerk of the Legislative Council, who has said the proroguing does not prevent such an inquiry being held.

 

]But because witnesses would not be protected by parliamentary privilege, they would be unlikely to be as forthright in their evidence as they might otherwise have been. A frank, public inquiry is essential after eight of the 13 directors of Delta Electricity and Eraring Energy resigned because they believed the deal between the government and Origin Energy and TRUenergy undervalued the assets.

 

The twist in the tale of the tragic farce is that it will be prolonged until March. Australia's largest state has been mired for too long in the incompetence of state Labor and the provider capture of public sector unions pulling the its strings. Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell needs to be ready to hit the ground running.

 

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

SPARE US THE CHRISTMAS SERMON

 

THE newspapers that gave us Earth Hour, that futile 60-minutes of conspicuous non-consumption, having been warming up for another assault on the spirit of Christmas.

 

They are busy greening Santa's suit with vegetable dye, replacing Turkey and French champagne with tofu and Fairtrade iced tea and The Sydney Morning Herald has even suggested buying a sack of cow manure for the Third World as a choice gift for a loved one. The Age is also urging us along the path of righteousness, pondering whether presents should not be wrapped to save paper, canvassing the relative environmental merits of recycled or electronic cards, reporting which light bulbs use the least energy and advocating "social awareness" in gift-giving. By Boxing Day, African villages will be overrun with goats, donkeys and pigs, courtesy of inner-city sophisticates assuaging their anti-consumerist consciences.

 

Thankfully, hardly anyone listens these days to the progressive paragons preaching the revised, new age commandments with a fervour that would make Billy Graham blush. They are welcome to recycle everything but the kitchen sink, clean up their dogs' droppings and agonise over the morality of keeping a pet. The rest of us will be celebrating with traditional excess with family and friends.

 

It says much for the resilience of this mid-winter festival that it survived transportation to a sunnier hemisphere and is celebrated by Australians of all faiths or none. It has burned bright this year in the unabashed joy of 100,000 Sydneysiders belting out Christmas carols in the Domain watched by a large national audience, and in homes, workplaces, shops and churches as a sign of renewal and a celebration of love, friendship and generosity. So important is Christmas that had Emperor Constantine and the early church not harnessed the trimmings of the winter festival of mithra in the 4th century to mark the birth of Jesus, mankind would have needed to create a similar celebration.

 

To those intent on a low-carbon Christmas, we offer these words from Charles Dickens's A Christmas Carol: "Darkness is cheap. Scrooge liked the dark." The rest of us will light up a dazzling tree, spread the good champers, give with joy, take pleasure in visiting the crib and smiling or laughing at a grinch. The Australian wishes readers a Happy Christmas and a safe, prosperous 2011.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

REMEMBER TIDINGS OF COMFORT AND JOY

EVERYONE - EVEN SCROOGE - CAN BRING KINDNESS TO CHRISTMAS.

 

THE word ''Scrooge'' has, courtesy of Charles Dickens, become synonymous with miserliness, misanthropy and misery. In A Christmas Carol, the pointy-nosed, red-eyed, blue-lipped, grating-voiced Ebenezer Scrooge is the ''squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching and covetous old sinner'', who despises Christmas - his festive season is based more on parsimony than parsnips - and anything else that might make people happy. He also detests the poor, saying the world would be better off by ''decreasing the surplus population''. Two words sum up his spirit: ''Bah! Humbug!''

 

In the 168 years since A Christmas Carol's first publication, the Scrooge legend has intensified. ''He carried his own low temperature always about with him; he iced his office in the dog-days; and didn't thaw it one degree at Christmas,'' was Dickens's shivery description. But is Scrooge's place in the permafrost of literary curmudgeons - aided and abetted by the many film, television, theatrical and operatic adaptations of the story - truly deserved? Or are there mitigating circumstances?

 

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''Bah! Humbug!'', one might snap, in the best Scrooge tradition. It is, perhaps, salutary to recall that in the book he utters that phrase just twice. He uses the word ''Humbug!'' only seven times - on the final occasion, after encountering Marley's Ghost, he manages only the first syllable - and is done with it entirely by the end of chapter one. Scrooge is, of course, the very model of redemption. It takes at least four ghosts to make him repent, but, 'twixt Christmas Eve and Christmas morn, he is transformed. ''Bah!'' becomes ''Ha!'' - ''Really, for a man who had been out of practice for so many years, it was a splendid laugh, a most illustrious laugh. The father of a long, long line of brilliant laughs!'' - and up goes his internal temperature, from the glacial to the heart-warming.

 

The obvious lesson is that no one should be impervious to the forces of change or the power of betterment; that everyone has within them the ability to be generous rather than mean, happy rather than sad, and to be more understanding and compassionate human beings. This applies equally to Victorian England as it does to present-day Elizabethan Australia. Charles Dickens might have written his ''Christmas ghost story'' for the readership of 1843, but it remains a parable for any age, anywhere - indeed, for any festival involving family and goodwill.

 

Dickens's latter-day biographer, Peter Ackroyd, has said, ''A Christmas Carol may be said to have reinvented Christmas itself'' - and so it proved. The truly remarkable thing was how the book's immediate popularity shifted the perception of Christmas from a predominantly church and community-based festival to what one commentator has called a ''family-centred spirit of generosity'', which ever since has informed the spirit of Christmas around the world.

 

]Yet, A Christmas Carol was inspired not so much by a cosy sense of family values as a rail against the secular corruption and social injustice of the period. In fact, the book began life as a pamphlet Dickens drafted in May 1843, An Appeal to the People of England on behalf of the Poor Man's Child. By October, Dickens decided the better way to reach the popular conscience was to write a novella: it took him just six weeks. On publication, even one of the author's sternest critics was moved to describeA Christmas Carol as ''finely felt and calculated to work much social good''.

 

Certainly, it achieved in fiction what was beyond the reach of a factual pamphlet: the novel changed the hearts and minds of a nation, encouraging a burst of charitable giving that has sustained itself down the centuries; even to those who have never heard of Tiny Tim or Bob Crachit, Scrooge is still an object-lesson in character reform.

 

Yet, it would be foolhardy to suggest that society has divested itself entirely of the ''Bah! Humbug!'' mentality. Remember the ''greed is good'' ideology, expressed by Scrooge's American descendent Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film Wall Street? It might have been modified by the same character in this year's sequel, with respect to the world economic crisis, but there are still too many true believers who put Mammon before generosity, and whose Christmases are calibrated accordingly.

 

This is best embodied not by an individual, but an object now on display in a curiously inappropriate location: an $11-million, 13-metre-high Christmas tree in the foyer of the Emirates Palace Hotel, in Abu Dhabi. This faux-fir, branches drooping with gold, rubies, diamonds and other precious stones, is possibly the most ostentatious show of wealth seen in the Middle East since the Golden Calf. It has proved too much even for the hotel management, which blames a local jeweller rather than themselves, saying the tree was really an effort to boost the holiday mood for its guests in line with ''values of openness and tolerance''. Given the Emirates Palace is in a Muslim land, this expensive, expansive gesture perhaps exceeds religious bounds, but clearly not economic ones: the hotel also boasts a vending machine that dispenses gold bars.

 

There are many unfortunate ways to leach Christmas of its true significance and its essential simplicity. But it is also relatively simple to maintain its values while respecting its dignity. One such method involves little more than selflessness, and thinking of others in greater need. The really treasurable gifts, as Scrooge discovered, are of kindness and generosity of spirit. Bearing this in mind, The Age wishes all its readers tidings of comfort and joy for Christmas and New Year 2011.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

CHRISTMAS: THE SECRET IS OUT

 

AS WAS observed long ago, familiarity breeds contempt. It is as true of Christmas as it is of anything else. There was a time when the Christmas story was told to remind us of who we are and who we are meant to be. But now many people dismiss the story as nothing more than an excuse for a holiday, while others only concede that it is a magical tale for children or a welcome opportunity to unload the dreary burden of disbelief and set free the child within. Christmas increasingly appears to offer little the truly modern person would need or care to acquire in terms of insight, wisdom or anything that might seriously challenge what we are all supposed to know or at least not think to question. Yet only recently the world was reminded of the folly of this kind of self-assuredness.

 

WikiLeaks made public tens of thousands of US embassy cables that were passed to the organisation by someone with access to confidential State Department files. Countless cables exposed the embarrassing gossip of powerful people, their often clueless attempts to deal with the challenges they confront, and the yawning gap between the rhetoric and the reality of so many of their policies. As a result, many of those who most benefit from non-disclosure of this kind of information have been appalled and are eager to see the offending organisation destroyed. Most of the rest of us have been amused, if not enlightened, and are left pondering just what public policy might look like in a world where truth was much more readily available to many more people far more often.

 

Properly understood, the Christmas story is a similar kind of event in which each of us is the hapless subject of a kind of cosmic disclosure. For the greater part of the year we go about our business in a fairly routine fashion, confident that whatever we are doing is the best thing for us to do and that wherever we are heading is the place for us to go. Our bearings are fixed and our assumptions are firm. We do the things we need to do for the people we need to do them for and then turn our attention to doing things for ourselves. In the process we tend to curl a little inward at each turn, becoming less morally attuned or simply less creative. But when that happens there is always the comforting delusion that this is a small price that has to be paid for the far more valuable benefits a complex post-industrial society provides.

 

Then, each Christmas, the veil is drawn back and those who dare to take a look glimpse a different reality governed by entirely different rules. This reality has the potential to shake us from the frantic must-do's of our lives and gently edge us towards those things crucial to authentic well-being - such as family, friends and community. What Christmas exposes is the underside of rock-hard assumptions about how the world works and the ultimate impacts of power and greed. In this way, the message of Christmas is far more subversive than WikiLeaks could ever hope to be: it shows that the status quo is not the necessary order of things but only one way social reality has been constructed to achieve certain ends. And for this same reason the story is also far more liberating because it shows that the way people live is not the only way that people can live.

 

So what is this secret that Christmas reveals? Christians claim nothing less than that it is the process by which God became human in the person of Jesus so that all human beings might one day become divine. ''God is sheer joy,'' Thomas Aquinas puts it, ''and sheer joy demands companionship.'' The Irish poet William Butler Yeats put it another way: ''God possesses the heavens but he covets the Earth.'' Whatever God's motives Christians believe that his intervention in history guarantees that the human experiment is not meant to fail. It is also a radically life-changing event at the purely personal level. Thanks to Christmas, the God of Christians is not in some far off heaven but intimately present in the ordinariness of each and every individual life.

 

On a different level, people who are religious but not Christian can recognise a universal truth in the Christmas story. It is that men and women reach the lowest point of their potential as moral beings when they are most absorbed by self-interest and conversely reach their full potential when they are most open to the needs of others. The Christmas story is replete with symbolism that conveys this idea. Jesus is born on a cold, dark, winter's night to represent humanity's withdrawal into the depths of pure ego; his vulnerability as a baby, the simplicity of his surroundings, and the gathering together by his side of both lowly shepherds and exalted wise men reinforce the notion that in humility can be found the transformative power that alone restores true warmth and light.

 

But even people who are not religious can learn many things from the Christmas story. These include the lesson that sometimes the least among us can be the most important, that if good neighbourliness is possible one day of the year there is no reason why it should not exist on all the others, that when we give of ourselves we often receive more in return, and that the sense of delight we see most vividly in the face of our children each Christmas is a reminder of the awesome responsibility we all share to preserve this world for those who will come after.

 

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

COUNCIL SLOGANS: BECAUSE YORK'S WORTH IT

 

It is a welcome distraction on the roads to notice a county council has awarded itself a strapline

 

As Britons trudge round the country to far-flung relatives, congested roads strain the goodwill of the season. Amid the admittedly slim recreational pickings on offer on a gridlocked M62 or A45, it is a welcome distraction to notice a sign announcing you've edged a county boundary, and all the more so if the council has awarded itself a strapline. Sadly, it happens too rarely.

 

While "Shakespeare's county" of Warwickshire is not too coy, others like Bedfordshire (briefly rebranded "A progressive county") have learned the hard way that sloganeering leads to rib-tickling. Some mottos have been inarguable ("Real Essex"), some quaintly droll ("Fife: Kingdom of life"), and others again would delight the youngest travellers (Clackmannanshire: "The Wee County"). But whether handed down by tradition or dreamed up by marketing people, far too few see the light of day.

 

Some straplines hanker after the easy self-confidence with which American states announce themselves – New Hampshire's "Live free or die" being merely one arresting example. Lincolnshire's "Big county, big skies, big future" is that flattish county's answer to Montana's "Big sky state". But all too often local officials return from holidaying to the US with confident ideas, and then become paralysed by British reserve upon their return. Sometimes the flair of the private enterprise fills the void left by the crippling caution of the state, as on the rail bridge at Mumps roundabout, where the medical supplier, Seton, "welcomes you to Oldham: home of the tubular bandage". Or at least, Seton did so until this year, when the forces of progress swept the bridge away to pave the way for a new Metrolink line.

 

Perhaps old industrial branding is out of place in the 21st century, but every local protest against a new Tesco makes plain that people are desperate for their community to cling on to a distinctive identity, and a few well-chosen words can crystallise that idea. Of course, they can strike a corny note, a particular danger with straplines sounding a call for action – Northamptonshire's "Let yourself grow", or the Kentish tricolon:"Relax, refresh, inspire". But from Donegal's claim that "Up here it's different" to Worcester's tittersome prospective subtitle – "An ancient city with a modern outlook" – the only way to test the claims is to visit, in which case the tourist board has the last laugh.

 

Why not open things up by taking public suggestions, or even a public vote? It would be wise to wait until the Christmas gridlock has past, or else London might find a mass text-in from a jammed M25 saddles it with "Capital punishment". But councillors, please, throw off your English inhibitions and declare yourselves on your roadsigns. Because York's worth it.

 

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

RELIGION: RESPECTING THE MINORITY

THIS CHRISTMAS, FOR PERHAPS THE FIRST TIME EVER, BRITAIN IS A MAJORITY NON-RELIGIOUS NATION

 

Every year, researchers from the British Social Attitudes survey ask a representative sample of British people whether they regard themselves as belonging to any particular religion and, if so, to which one? When the survey first asked these questions in 1985, 63% of the respondents answered that they were Christians, compared with 34% who said they had no religion (the rest belonged to non-Christian religions).

 

Today, a quarter of a century on, there has been a steady and remarkable turnaround. In the latest 2010 BSA report, published earlier this month, only 42% said they were Christians while 51% now say they have no religion. Admittedly, some other surveys – including the lastcensus – have produced different findings on these issues, usually to the advantage of the religious option. There is also a margin of error in all such exercises. All the same, and particularly since the trends in opinion over time seem well set, it is hard not to feel that this latest finding marks a cultural watershed.

 

This Christmas, for perhaps the first time ever, Britain is a majority non-religious nation. Most of us have probably seen this moment coming, but it is a substantial event nonetheless. It is undoubtedly a development that would have astonished our ancestors who built a Britain on the basis that we were and would remain a predominantly Protestant people. The victory of secularism would have flabbergasted them almost as much asthe pope appearing on the BBC with his Thought for the Day.

 

The change ought certainly to inspire some national reflection, though there is no need for national breast-beating. After all, in most eyes, the BSA survey finding simply underscores things that have already become obvious. Today, our three political parties are led by two open atheists, and a prime minister who admits his faith comes and goes, a development impossible to imagine in other parts of a world, in which the loss of religion is not a uniform trend. The Britain of 50 years ago, in which religion was a far larger part of the social fabric and the national way of life, is a country we have lost.

 

What is more striking about the survey is how quickly the change has come – just a generation. It is not that long since everything shut on Sundays, since a majority went regularly to church of some sort, since all schoolchildren knew and sang hymns and studied the Bible even if they did not believe in it, and since the idea that public figures could be anything other than observantly Christian would have seemed unthinkable. It would be hard to say, by most yardsticks, that those were better times. They were certainly different ones. The direction of change is likely to continue. We must all get used to it.

 

None of this is to dismiss the religious or to disparage its institutions, let alone to imply that Christmas is unimportant. For all its secular and commercial excess, Christmas remains a surprisingly serious season, accentuated this year by the bleak weather. But it is to say that sensitive adaptation to the predominantly non-religious era is required on all sides. In many respects, Britain is handling that task quite well. Our national evolution into a less religious society is not without its skids and bumps. If anything, though, it is being managed with greater dignity than our parallel evolution into a less politicised one.

 

It is no more the place of a newspaper to impose a religious test on its readers than it was right for the British state to impose such tests on its office-holders in the past. In some sense, the protection of respect becomes more important with Christianity's decline. When Anglicanism held unchallenged sway, after all, it was important to assert the rights of those who disagreed with it, whether as Catholics, nonconformists, non-Christians or as atheists. Today, as an era of non-religious ascendancy begins in Britain, the importance of tolerance towards the faiths is not diminishing but increasing.

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

IN PRAISE OF … 'THE VOICE OF GOD'

 

With the whole of his output set to be broadcast on Radio 3 in 2011, it is clear that the Mozartian moment has come

 

The waiting is almost over. Today we shall learn which of 10 pieces of music by Mozart has been voted the nation's favourite in a poll of Radio 3 listeners which closed yesterday. If a similar exercise in Australiaa few years ago is a good guide – and six of the same works made it to both nations' Mozart top 10s – the winner is likely to be either the Clarinet Concerto K622 or the Ave Verum Corpus motet K618, though canny Mozartian punters will know that the composer's Requiem K626 and the trio Soave sia il vento from his opera Cosi fan tutte are likely to be up there too. To choose from among such riches is, of course, invidious; everyone will have their own preferences. For some of us, it is a mystery how Radio 3's shortlist managed to avoid the final forgiveness scene from the Marriage of Figaro or the quintet from Idomeneo, while earlier generations (and, even today, perhaps a different audience from Radio 3's) would surely have been astounded at the absence from the top 10 of a single Mozart symphony or overture. Editorial endorsements in tight electoral contests are always unenviable and delicate judgments, but the case for the Adagio from Mozart's B-flat wind serenade K361,unforgettably described as "the voice of God" by the envious Salieri in Peter Shaffer's Amadeus, is particularly hard to resist in this one. In any event, with the whole of his output scheduled to be broadcast on Radio 3in the first 12 days of 2011, it is at least beyond argument that the Mozartian moment has come.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

SUPPORT FOR ASSAULT VICTIMS

 

The National Police Agency's crime statistics for 2009 show that 8,090 cases of rape and indecent sexual assault were reported to police that year.

 

A survey by the Justice Ministry shows that out of 1,021 people who were released from prison in 2000 after serving prison terms for serious crimes, 322 committed the same crimes within 10 years. The recidivism rate for rape was 38.5 percent, the second highest following the rate of 39.1 percent for robbery. An NPA survey also shows that out of 740 people who were released from prison in the past five years after serving prison terms for sexual crimes against children, 105 again became the targets of investigation for sexual crimes.

 

Attention should be paid to the fact that not all sexual crimes are reported to the police. A recent survey hints that only about 13 percent of sexual crime victims report to the police, translating into some 60,000 sexual crimes in 2009. Forty-four organizations belonging to the National Network for Victim Support report that out of some 20,000 cases about which people contacted them for help in fiscal 2009, some 3,900 or 19 percent were sex offenses.

 

The NNVS says that while the number of sex offenses has been on the rise, many victims hesitate to report to the police. Because sex-offense victims are hurt both physically and psychologically and are likely to be subject to misunderstanding or prejudice, it is vital to establish a sufficient number of places where such victims can seek and get advice and help without worries.

 

An Osaka hospital has started stationing an expert counselor to give advice to sex-offense victims over the phone. They also can come to the hospital to receive medical examinations and treatment. They will be introduced to lawyers and counselors. Institutions like this should spread across the country.

 

To increase the number of such institutions, cooperation among the police, local governments and private sector organizations will be indispensable. The first and key step for improving the support for sex-offense victims should be to educate people so that they will discard any prejudice toward such victims

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

CHILD ALLOWANCE HAS STRAYED

 

The shape of the child allowance for fiscal 2011 could end up distorting the basic idea behind it. The government needs to find stable funds to make the allowance sustainable and keep it true to its basic idea.

 

In line with the Democratic Party of Japan's manifesto for the 2009 Lower House election, the DPJ government started giving a monthly allowance of ¥13,000 per child up to third-year middle school students in fiscal 2010 and was to double the amount from fiscal 2011. Japan's financial straits have forced the government to give up on doubling the amount.

 

The Kan administration, however, has decided to pay an additional ¥7,000 a month to a child younger than 3 to help some households whose disposable income in fiscal 2011 will be less than in fiscal 2010 due to the planned abolition of the deduction for young dependents on the family's taxable income.

 

The approach and the scheme contradict the basic idea that society as a whole should help child-rearing families irrespective of their income levels. The allowance was not intended as an income compensation measure. The confusion is due to the Kan administration's failure to abide by the DPJ's original idea of securing funds for the allowance by abolishing taxable-income deductions for spouses and dependents.

 

The Kan administration has decided not to abolish the deduction for spouses, fearing that the DPJ may lose support from housewives in local elections next year. It has decided to abolish the deduction for all young dependents. But the abolition of the deduction for adult dependents will affect only high-income families.

 

High-income households get more benefit from the deduction for spouses than low-income households. Among households with an annual income of ¥2 million or less, only about 10 percent can apply for the deduction because most housewives in this group are working. The corresponding rate for households with an annual income of ¥9 million or more is about 60 percent. The deduction is also said to work to lower wages for working housewives. It is clear that the government should abolish it to strengthen the child allowance.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

OPED

A THOUGHT FOR THE HOLY DAY

BY KEVIN RAFFERTY

 

Special to The Japan Times

HONG KONG — A sad note in returning to Europe as the end of the year approaches is to see how "political

correctness" (P.C.) has tried to drive out not only what is sacred but also what is important, vital and precious to our very civilization.

 

December 25 is the holy day of Christmas. It celebrates the day when Jesus Christ was born, God born as a tiny baby to restore the friendship between God and humanity, and to bring hope and joy and love to the world.

 

The Prophet Isaiah foretold Christ's coming: "For unto us a Child is born, unto us a Son is given; and the government will be upon His shoulders, and His name will be called Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace."

 

Later, Isaiah audaciously spells out the message that the Messiah was not concerned with money or power or the conventional trappings of rulers. "The spirit of the Lord God is upon me; because the Lord has anointed me to preach good news to the afflicted, to bind up the brokenhearted, to proclaim liberty to the captives and the opening of prisons to those who are bound."

 

Christmas is more than a charming story. It is, should be, a life-changing experience as well as a celebration. Yet in much of Europe today there is a concerted campaign to drive Christ out of Christmas. In some places the very word "Christmas" is taboo because we are living in a secular or a postsecular society that must be inclusive and not biased toward any religion.

 

Schools are told not to put on Nativity plays, in which children dress up and play the parts of the characters in the first Christmas. Instead of "Christmas" towns choose words like "Winter lights," "Winterfest" or the atrocious "Winterval" to describe the winter holiday break, which runs from Dec. 23 until early in January in many European countries these days.

 

Eating and drinking and making merry are OK, of course, and Christmas is a time to persuade people to part with more money than they have. Santa Claus (Father Christmas) has been hijacked as a super-salesperson for Mammon. Instead of reverent, melodious Christmas carols, the air is filled with the sound of tinkling Muzak with cringe-making lyrics, all urging people to eat drink and be merry.

 

It is atrocious and appalling on the grounds of taste alone. But what concerns me is that in the name of P.C., secularists are undermining the foundations of modern civilization even though it was Christianity, building upon the principles of Judaism, that set the moral rules for modern society, notions of equality before the law, equal rights and obligations, as well as the great hope of eternal life after one had lived a good and fulfilling and God-fearing life on this earth.

 

Pope Benedict commented: "As Europe listens to the story of Christianity, she hears her own. Her notions of justice, freedom and social responsibility, together with the cultural and legal institutions established to preserve these ideas and hand them on to future generations, are shaped by her Christian inheritance."

 

Perhaps the only way of dealing with the idiocy of P.C. is to mock the mockers. There is a popular Christmas carol that tells of the good news of the birth of the baby Christ being announced first, not to the rich or powerful, but to poor shepherds, outcasts of the society of their day, watching their sheep in open fields. Suddenly, so the Gospel (Good News) says, an Angel of the Lord appeared to tell them of the birth of the Savior.

 

The carol says: "While shepherds watched their flocks by night All seated on the ground, The Angel of the Lord came down, And Glory shone around."

 

My friends in charge of P.C. (Safety Branch) tell me that the Union of Shepherds has protested that the carol contains serious breaches of safety regulations. The union is demanding that appropriate seating arrangements must be provided for shepherds to watch their flocks, so seats, benches, stools and orthopedic chairs must be provided. It is winter with likelihood that the poor shepherds might catch a chill, especially during frequent inclement weather, so the union requests that CCTV cameras should be installed and centrally heated observation huts set up, so the shepherds can watch their flocks in cozy comfort.

 

As for the Angel of the Lord, the union has issued a strong safety warning and been reminded that before shining his or her Glory all around, the shepherds must be issued with glasses capable of filtering out any harmful effects of UVA, UVB, not to speak of Glory lighting.

 

There is another famous Christmas carol that celebrates the birth of Christ in humble circumstances, traditionally in a stable or cave or outhouse because the hotels and inns were full. It begins: "Away in a manger, no crib for a bed. At this point the P.C. police halted everything, yelling, 'Alert, alert, call Social Services immediately, child abuse."

 

Have a very Happy Christmas and spare a thought for the original meaning. Even if you are not a Christian or a believer in God, think of the humble birth of the small child who promised a changed world and reflect that if more people followed his precepts, the world would be a better and safer place.

 

As Isaiah says, "He shall judge between the nations, and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore." Amen.

 

Kevin Rafferty was editor of The Universe, the U.K. Catholic newspaper.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

NATIONALIZING CHRISTMAS

 

Unlike Idul Fitri, which has been accepted as part of national culture in Indonesia, Christmas is generally deemed an imported tradition, despite the long history of Christianity here.

 

This is perhaps why greeting Christians on Christmas Day has remained controversial among local Muslims, who make up the majority of the Indonesian population of 235 million.

 

Christmas here essentially copy-pastes the Western symbols of snow, Jingle Bells, Santa Claus riding a sleigh pulled by nine reindeers, and evergreen coniferous trees — although in some areas local flavors have been added.

 

Nobody ever made a big fuss over Christmas being a national holiday and a celebration of religious tolerance in this diverse country until the simultaneous bomb attacks on churches across Indonesia on Christmas Eve in 2000.

 

The attacks, as well as the bloody sectarian clashes in Ambon and Poso between 1999 and 2000, were real tests for Indonesia, which is otherwise recognized as a model for religious tolerance and fertile ground for dialogue among followers of various faiths.

 

Apart from the threat of terrorism, Christmas this year comes against the backdrop of widespread doubts over interfaith relations here, which human rights groups say remain fragile as evidenced in the closure of churches by hard-line Muslim groups concerned about suspected "Christianization".

 

We believe this clampdown on churches — which amounts to a denial of the constitutional right to worship and the universal freedom of religion — was not representative of the behavior of most Indonesian Muslims, who are recognized worldwide for their moderation.

 

However, the absence of affirmative action by the state to protect religious minorities and punish those committing violence in the name of religion has sent out messages that intolerance is condoned, if not justified.

 

An ongoing challenge facing believers across the world is how to translate religious teachings into practice, lest their faith be considered irrelevant to the daily problems around the universe. Challenging the teachings all religions spread, world peace is under threat, crime is rampant, poverty is worsening and climate change is creating havoc around the globe, apparently bringing us all closer to doomsday.

 

]For Christians, Christmas marks a new beginning for human salvation and reconciliation between God and His creature called man. More than that, Christmas, like Idul Fitri and other religious holidays, also brings mankind universal hope for peace.

 

Modesty and solidarity with the poor and the weak are morals Christmas has been advocating since the day Jesus was born. Thus it contradicts the spirit of Christmas if lavish parties are arranged to commemorate this holiday.

 

In an Indonesian context, Christmas is a good time to ponder the latest UN Human Development Report which ranks Indonesia 108th among the 169 countries assessed. Achieving a score of 0.6 in the Human Development Index, Indonesia was placed in the middle group. This was not a poor achievement considering that over the last three decades the life expectancy of the average Indonesian has increased 19 percent. At the same time absolute poverty and imbalances in wealth distribution remain problems this country has yet to address properly and are indeed causes for concern.

 

For us, Christmas should go beyond the ritual, and serve to remind us of this nation's dream of prosperity for all.

 

Merry Christmas!

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

XMAS AND AN EPISTEMIC MUSLIM COMMUNITY

KHAIRIL AZHAR

 

Pamulang, Nov. 27, 2010. The gathering started from something fun but a little bizarre. The host, Neng Dara, a commissioner at the National Commission on Violence against Women (Komnas Perempuan), initially invited us just for a "family" gathering through our mailing list.

There was no indication there would be a serious discussion related to her concerns about Indonesia's current issues. Then, amid an opening full of laughter, she suddenly talked about Indonesia's future, especially about the current issue of decreasing tolerance among Indonesians.

The forum, voluntarily founded at the outset as a study group in 1986 by some students of Jakarta State Islamic University, somehow could not be detached from what we can call "something serious". That night, Saiful Mujani, a world-renowned Indonesian professor and a founder of the forum, talked about his nostalgia of the 1980s, when he and his colleagues brought the forum into being. But he mixed his stories with an apprehension of the contemporary threats of pro-violence religious radicalism. So, there was again happiness as well as concern at the gathering that night.

Perhaps this was a small-scale communicative community given the ideal opportunity to make a speech that German philosopher Jurgen Habermas gave years ago. In the vision he painted, freedom flows and every mind opens. Everyday talk, however trivial it may be, is free from errors such as repression or anything that might hamper honesty or alike. Such a community would enable us to talk with dignity so that everybody has a respected place, regardless of the job he or she does.

In our case, Saiful calls this an epistemic community. It is a forum in which members feel an attachment with such an intellectual spirit in mind. We are all Muslims but we are concerned about our non-Muslims' sufferings caused by state or majority arbitrariness. The seniors (who are not students anymore) are now working for diverse institutions and companies but they have at least several things in common: Reading books and other reading material, they have political awareness and are actively involved to different extents in social affairs and human rights activities.

Our community is also like a "clandestine" voluntary association with a zest to fight tyranny or such and the status quo. There is a filmmaker among us, for example, and she makes movies sounding social injustice. There is a poet and he writes things without weird that shackle creativity. There is a religious cleric but he talks about Karl Marx and Friedrich Nietzsche without arbitrarily blaming their thoughts.

Another story that night was about the pragmatic tendency of contemporary students' academic lives. Their propensity toward how to be well-employed, well-paid or well-linked to political figures after their university years is assumed to have weakened their potential to be agents of social change. The evidence is clear: Study groups with strong social academic backgrounds and academically crafted social movements are hardly found nowadays. Instead, most student activities are measured mathematically: post-study financial return or future employment opportunities.

We also see that students' associations hardly involve themselves in defending minority rights. They might have political protest agendas, for instance, but they don't seem to have enough awareness of or concern for human rights or racism issues. Their concerns are for catchy political issues, which shows their consciences are developed more by mainstream vistas, not, for example, by fundamental knowledge found through in-depth reading and reasoning.

That night, at the gathering, we were also reminded again about how Indonesia is now traversing the transition to a democracy where everyone, or groups, has a better chance to voice a thought regardless of triviality or even artificiality. But, it is something we accept with gratitude as well as anxiety. This transition allows us to enjoy more freedom than before but at the same time we sadly see, for example, religious radicalism arising with violent inclination.

Now, welcoming 2010's Christmas, the availability of epistemic Muslim communities in Indonesia seems to be very promising due to peacebuilding efforts. Imagine if members of these communities were everywhere at all institutions. They would influence their surroundings with the notion of a "free market of ideas" as well as the necessity to respect one's choice. They will better guarantee amity instead of hostility. We will see a Christmas day without cops with cocked-rifles; a Christmas day as it should be.

That's why, that night, two agendas were agreed. First, our epistemic forum must run as usual at any cost. The very small segment of university students who join our forum will keep learning things that have likely been abandoned in the university curricula: progressive social sciences, enlightening philosophy, logical and rational religious studies, or the way students' protests must be intelligently conducted.

Secondly, an active participation in the democratization process is a must for everybody. But it could be manifested in various ways. NGO activists will do what they can to endorse the process while university lecturers might be acting as the motivators among their academic fellows. The journalists will ensure that the news voices an atmosphere of freedom, while political observers will keep enunciating people's welfare as the utmost aim of each polity.

Hopefully, with this and other epistemic Muslim communities, however small they are, we might see a Christmas day as peaceful as an Idul Fitri day. Having a ritual in a church is likely to be as safe as performing an Islamic ritual in a mosque.

 

The writer is a researcher at Paramadina Foundation, Jakarta.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

CHRISTMAS SHOULD RECOGNIZE WOMAN'S ROLE

MIKAEL DIAN TEGUH

 

A birth is something to rejoice in and is often considered as a new beginning. Such sentiments are well-suited to Christmas, an annual celebration of Christian believers.

 

Many think Christmas derives from the Dies Natalis Solis Invicti which literally means "the birthday of the unconquered sun".

 

Dec. 25 was the date of winter solstice based on the early Roman imperial calendar, when the sun reversed its southward retreat. Amid debates on the origins of Christmas, the date commemorates the birth of Jesus Christ, the central figure of Christianity.

 

Christmas is celebrated with as many customs as there are nations. We all know that Santa Claus has been a popular Christmas icon, representing an old man delivering gifts as reward for the good deeds of children.

 

]It is rare to see the figure of Mary, the mother of Jesus, receive special regard during Christmas celebrations although she had to go through a series of trials when becoming a mother. A mother has nine months from conception before giving birth to a baby, so there is a question as to whether Mary's role in the celebration of Christmas should stay low.

 

Biblically speaking, Mary is depicted as a humble woman from the countryside, a depiction that strengthens her image as a loving and compassionate character.

 

Mary was made the (surrogate) mother of Jesus, who was conceived by the Holy Spirit. Mary remained unmarried.

 

Mary, having had a visit from the archangel Gabriel, humbly obeyed her faith regardless of the fact that it endangered her life. Her pregnancy outside of wedlock was a huge issue. Even in the present day, similar cases in some cultures are considered as a disgrace to women and their families.

 

The fact that Middle Eastern society perceives marriage as a sacred ritual leads some people there to think that pregnancy outside of marriage deserved severe punishments, such as stoning to death.

 

Accompanied by her fiance, Joseph, Mary escaped to Bethlehem, where she gave birth to Jesus in a small dirty stable as is told in the New Testament.

 

Compared to the present day where we have hospital equipment to support the process of giving birth, anesthetic had not even been invented.

 

Mary's struggle didn't stop there. She also had to run away to Egypt to save her life and newborn baby from King Herod who was searching for Jesus to kill him.

 

We can also sense the feelings of a mother who was a seeming prisoner of her child. How did Mary feel taking all the pain to give life to her baby?

 

To challenge the idea of giving Mary a place in this celebration, some believers argue that Jesus is the main figure and has the most important role in Christianity.

 

After all, putting Mary in a special position will slightly alter a tradition of Christmas that has lasted for hundreds years. That is not going to be easy one way or another.

 

There's no harm whatsoever in viewing this issue from a different perspective without replacing the essence of the celebration.

 

This is just a little contemplative reflection for us, as we watch Christmas pass year after year. Mary as mother figure has earned a spot in this joyful celebration. Merry Christmas.

 

The writer is an English language student at Sanata Dharma University in Yogyakarta.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

CHRISTMAS: THE LANGUAGE OF GOD'S LOVE

ALOYS BUDI PURNOMO

 

In his book, Analyzing Political Discourse: Theory and Practice (2004), Paul Chilton writes: "What is clear is that political activity does not exist without the use of language".

 

To some extent, Chilton's remark is useful in understanding the meaning of the Christmas message in our daily lives today. Christmas does not exist without the use of language; the language of God.

 

That Jesus was born in the world is the word of God to humanity. God wants to speak to mankind and articulate His language of love to everybody.

 

This is why the writer of the letter to the Hebrews states, after speaking in many and varied ways through the prophets, "now at last in these days God has spoken to us through His Son" (Heb. 1:1-2).

 

St. John emphasized in his gospel, "For God so loved the world, that He gave His only begotten Son, that whatsoever believe in Him should not perish, but have everlasting life!" (John 3:16).

 

More than other messages, the main message of Christmas is God's language of love. What does it mean to say that Christmas is the language of love from God to mankind?

 

First of all, it means God himself wants to save us through Jesus Christ, his Son, also in our real context of life, here and now. What kind of life do we live now?

 

Almost everyone would agree that in some sense the world we live in today is in danger. This century is an extraordinary time, a century of extremes.

 

Today, we live in a world marked by extremes. Extremes in wealth and poverty, the gap between the rich and poor nations widens even more dramatically. The wealthy lifestyle of the rich is being flaunted in the face of the poorest.

 

Today, the population is becoming too large and growing rapidly in its desire to consume products that need resources beyond what the earth can provide. Ecologically, every year, we lose at least 100 million acres of farmland and 24 billion tons of topsoil. We also create 15 million acres of new desert around the world by cutting down trees and destroying forest.

 

Today we are threatened by global warming, which has brought hurricanes and caused natural climate-control mechanisms to go wrong. Rising temperatures lower crop yields in many of the world's poorest countries in this world.

 

Today, we live amid extreme forces of globalism, weapons of mass destruction and terrorists acting in the name of religion. We are living in a world marked by religious belligerence and terrorism, even suicidal terrorism. We live in an age of terror.

 

Up until now, war drums continue to constantly disturb our lives. We still hear over and over again that 
we need more and stronger weapons to safeguard our lives. Even though we possess weapons of mass destruction and have developed bioweapons.

 

Worse, we may face the catastrophe of seeing our planet become scorched. Sooner or later we should realize that we are living on such a planet.

 

Much of the earth will become too hot for farmers to grow food, while the threats of flooding, soil erosion and impacts of melting snow and ice also loom large.

 

Living in this situation, we are reminded that celebrating Christmas means fostering the language of God's love to mankind. So Christians today, if they want to manifest the original message of Christmas, there is no other way but to translate the language of love into their daily actions.

 

We live in a situation called a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. We know more about war than peace, more about violence than love, more about killing than living. So, we should must find the courage to make the word of love as important as the words of freedom and peace.

 

Undoubtedly, the words of love, peace and freedom are similar and interconnect with one another. We want freedom to build peace in our social life. In freedom, we should love everybody and share peace with each other, even with those who hate us.

 

The genuine word of love is not often heard in our world marked by hatred. It would be a tragedy if people no longer had a brave heart to share love.

 

That's why Jesus said to us, "Love your enemies, do good to them who hate you. Bless them that curse you and pray for them who spitefully use you" (Luke 6:27-28).

 

Again, Jesus said, "If you love those who love you, what thanks can you expect? Even sinners love those who love them. And if you do good to those who do good to you, what thanks can you expect?

 

"For even sinners do that much. And if you lend to those from whom you hope to receive, what thanks can you expect? Even sinners lend to sinners to get back the same amount" (Luke 6:32-34).

 

And these are our challenges to do the original message of Christmas, as God himself loves mankind. This message is radicalism in following Jesus Christ today more than only sentimentalism, utopianism, or romanticism.

 

At the grassroots level we have seen such a language of love in the life of volunteers who served the victims of the Wasior floods, Mentawai's tsunami and Merapi's eruptions. They really translated the message of the language of the love of God into deeps as Christmas intended. Merry Christmas.


The writer is a diocesan priest, and chief of Commission for Interfaith Affairs at the Archdiocese of Semarang, Central Java.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

YULETIDE REVELRY

BY MICHELE A. BERDY

 

Сочельник: the night before Christmas

Unless you have been buried under the usual horrendous pre-holiday work load or sleeping on the floor of a snowed-in European airport, you know that this week saw a rare coincidence of cosmic phenomena: полнолуние (full moon) combined with лунное затмение (lunar eclipse) at the moment of зимнее солнцестояние (winter solstice). A millennium or two ago, Slavic tribes might have seen this as the end of the world. Today, many Russians saw it as a Very Bad Sign and strongly advised a day of quiet indoor activities, hot soup, and vodka. I complied. Who am I to argue with Russians about celestial omens?

 

One of my boozy indoor activities was reading up on how pagan winter solstice practices blended with Christmas celebrations into a mix of piety, revelry and ritualistic food. Since the ancient pagans didn't leave written records, speculation varies, but most scholars agree that the pre-Christian inhabitants of Russia celebrated the start of the new solar year joyfully. But they regarded the period of солнцестояние (solstice or "sun stoppage") as one of those creepy in-between times when all kinds of malevolent spirits and souls of the dead could slip into the here-and-now. To counter the bad vibes, they made foods of grain that celebrated the fertile earth, like кутья (a sweetened grain dish), or various sun-shaped, pancakey things, like сочни (berry fritters), блины (blinis) and оладьи (thick pancakes).

 

When Christianity came to the Russian lands, the peasants saw the "rebirth" of the sun as a metaphor for the birth of Christ, and they called Christ Солнце Правды (the Sun of Truth). They kept their ritual foods and called Christmas Eve сочельник, from that fruity fritter called сочень. (In the north, Christmas Eve was called кутейник, from кутья.) The notion of "in-between" time became святки (yuletide), the "twelve days of Christmas" from December 25 until Epiphany on January 6 (before the calendar changes shifted the celebrations ahead 12 days). They lit bonfires both to announce the coming of Christ and to warm the souls of the departed, who had slipped into this world when the sun stopped.

 

They transformed the Latin word "calendae" (the first day of the month) into коляда to describe the songs ritually sung. These songs were part Christmas carol and part folk ditty with a hefty dose of good wishes for the new (solar) year. Колядовщики колядовали — that is, revelers went from house to house, singing songs of Christ's coming and blessing the house. The householders thanked the singers and treated them, often with козульки (also called коровки) — cookies made in the shape of animals (like a goat – коза — or cow — корова) and birds. In this version of trick or treat, if the householders were miserly, the revelers switched song gears and extended hearty bad wishes for the coming year.

 

The joy of the Christmas season combined with the enjoyment of the previous year's harvest in this agricultural downtime made for feasts and merriment, especially for young people. Ряженые (mummers) pranced around the villages at игрища (something like "fun and games"). But the notion of "in-between" time from the pagan past meant that sometimes the costumes got a bit too devilish, and the fun and games got more than slightly erotic. But happily, everyone could sober up and wash away their sins with a dip in a freezing lake or river on Jan. 6.

 

From time to time, the Church (and presumably worried parents) cracked down on over-the-top колядование (yuletide revelry). What they failed to prohibit died away under the onslaught of Soviet campaigns against religion and superstition. Now Russians like to celebrate the season with pop songs.

 

Except for me. I'm making козульки. Got to get ready for a happy new solar year.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

OFF TO A NEW START

BY DARYL G. KIMBALL

 

Against tough political odds, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has squared the circle on a number of long-running domestic and international nuclear policy debates. Beginning in 2009, Obama recommitted the United States to the goal of a "world without nuclear weapons," beginning with overdue reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles. Within a year, he successfully negotiated the New START treaty with President Dmitry Medvedev that will reduce the number of deployed strategic warheads and delivery vehicles and reestablish a robust onsite inspection system.

 

Despite stiff opposition from some hard-line Republican senators, Obama and his Republican and Democratic allies in the Senate convinced a large, bipartisan majority to vote in favor of U.S. ratification of New START by a margin of 71-26.

 

The strong vote for the treaty is remarkable at this time of hyper-partisanship in Washington. As Democratic Senator John Kerry, head of the Foreign Relations Committee, has noted of this Senate, "70 is the new 95."

 

Kerry and Republican Senator Richard Lugar, along with Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, pursued a smart, patient plan to consult with Republican senators and take Republican concerns about the treaty into account. They turned back treaty-killing amendments from obstinate treaty opponents that would have required renegotiation with Russia.

 

In the end, New START won the Senate's support because it makes sense. The treaty will reduce the still enormous U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear deployments by nearly 30 percent. It will also further enhance U.S.-Russian cooperation on key issues, including containing Iran's nuclear program, securing vulnerable nuclear material from terrorists and opening the way for further reductions in all types of Russian and U.S. nuclear arms — strategic and nonstrategic, deployed and nondeployed.

 

To implement New START, the State Duma must now ratify the treaty. As Russia's leaders chart the course ahead, it is important to recognize that after years of simmering tensions under the administration of former President George W. Bush, Obama has sought to reset relations with Russia. The positive vote on New START is recognition that Russia is a vital partner, especially when it comes to Moscow's role in helping to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions and strengthen the global nonproliferation effort.

 

While the Senate debate demonstrated that Republican and Democratic senators are committed to pursuing "effective" missile defenses against nations like Iran and North Korea, the Obama administration abandoned the controversial Bush-era plan to deploy unproven strategic missile interceptors in Central Europe mainly because its effectiveness was extremely limited and because Iran is still years away from fielding long-range missiles.

 

The new U.S. "phased, adaptive approach" for missile defense over the next decade is better equipped to address Iran's short- and medium-range missile threats as they emerge, and it clearly does not threaten Russia's strategic nuclear retaliatory potential. Obama's missile defense plan is much smarter and could lead to cooperation rather than confrontation with Russia.

 

The next steps in U.S.-Russian arms control won't be easy, but they must be pursued. New START is vital, but it will leave the United States and Russia with far more strategic warheads — both deployed and stored — and strategic missiles and bombers than what is needed to deter nuclear attack.

 

Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, it is in the best interests of both Russia and the United States to further reduce their huge strategic nuclear stockpiles, phase out their Cold War-style targeting plans, tackle the problem of accounting for and reducing tactical nuclear weapons and, as Obama has said, engage the other nuclear-armed states in a dialogue on nuclear disarmament.

 

Further reductions should ideally be secured through a follow-on treaty, or, in the interim, through unilateral reciprocal reductions. Whatever the formula, it is clear that there is still more to be done. In the post-Cold War 21st century, nuclear weapons are much more of a liability than an asset. For all practical purposes, they are useless in deterring or responding to nuclear terrorism, and their use against conventional threats is unnecessary and unjustifiable.

 

In the coming months, the U.S. and Russian governments should begin high-level discussion on how to accelerate the reductions mandated by New START and explore how they might reduce their arsenals to 1,000 or fewer deployed nuclear weapons of all types and restrict their role solely to deterring nuclear attack by others.

 

The message coming from the U.S. Senate is clear: Doing nothing or delaying action on pragmatic nuclear risk reduction steps is not a prudent option. It is now Russia's turn.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

UNIVERSITY OF NEW STYLE

 

Will Nanfang University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen herald a new beginning for China's higher education reform? Or is it a Chinese version of Harvard or Yale University taking shape? Or will the higher learning institute that is still in its infancy be an education tsunami for the nation?

 

It is too early to answer. But its presence is challenging the Ministry of Education. Even without the approval of the ministry it seems that the school is determined to move forward and enroll 50 students, so-called child prodigies, to begin classes on March 1, 2011. On graduating in 2015, these students will receive a diploma unauthorized by the Ministry of Education - unlike their peers from the State-run universities.

 

The school is committed to modeling itself on Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, but if the government will not ratify the school, the situation could cause a lot of trouble for those 50 students if they want to do graduate studies at other higher learning institutions. Other schools could turn their applications down for their unauthorized credentials.

 

The difficulties, however, have not frightened students and their parents away. On Dec 18 more than 1,000 students and their parents visited the Nanfang University of Science and Technology for interviews.

 

Private investment marks the school out from other higher learning institutions in the nation. Not a penny comes from the government's coffers. So the government will have no voice in how the school will be run.

 

The Ministry of Education has published a comprehensive plan for education reform and development between 2010 and 2020, outlining its commitment to releasing central control and giving universities autonomy. It will allow presidents and faculty to run their schools. The ministry should have applauded the independence the school in Shenzhen has shown and encouraged more to do likewise.

 

China's development plan for education calls for cultivating a group of internationally recognized Chinese universities by the end of 2020. In short, the goal is to make China's higher education internationally competitive.

]

To accomplish this goal, the government should have the courage to let the educators who have big ideas try them out.

 

Education reform in China has reached a new and crucial stage. The driving force is the need to produce an increasingly knowledgeable workforce equipped to handle the challenges of an economy that is not only growing extremely rapidly, but also becoming increasingly diversified and sophisticated.

 

Nanfang University of Science and Technology has a long way to go to prove itself dynamic and competitive rather than a diploma mill.

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

FAR-SIGHTED SUPPORT

 

Though a report that China is willing to invest heavily in Portuguese bonds helped the euro rise to the day's high versus the dollar on Wednesday, the skepticism expressed by some European media shows that China's long-term support for a strong Europe is still viewed with suspicion by some.

 

It may be reasonable for some European observers to argue that the Chinese buying only helps ease Europe's sovereign-debt problems in the short run. But it goes too far to suggest that such goodwill creates an obstacle that prevents a long-term solution to the debt crisis.

 

It has been a tough year for the EU, which is mired in an ongoing sovereign debt crisis as it struggles to emerge from the global financial crisis. Chinese policymakers have repeatedly stressed their support for Europe and their willingness to help it through its debt and deficit problems.

 

With the 27-member European Union (EU) being its biggest trade partner, China has ample reasons to strengthen cooperation.

 

In October, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao offered to buy Greek bonds during his visit to Greece. A month later, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Portugal and vowed to help its troubled national economy.

 

On Tuesday, Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan told visiting EU officials in Beijing that the country supported efforts by the EU and the International Monetary Fund to calm global markets in the wake of Europe's debt crisis and that it had taken "concrete actions" to help some European countries.

 

For the moment, all these Chinese efforts will, to a certain extent, help guard bonds issued by some weak European economies from the vicious cycle of rising yields and deteriorating fiscal fundamentals.

 

Meanwhile, it is also more than obvious that such Chinese direct investment in these European economies aims to serve the fundamental long-term interests of China and the EU.

 

If the EU is able to control sovereign debt risks and translate consensus into real action to lift Europe out of the financial crisis, China will also benefit from the sustainable recovery of the top destination for Chinese exports.

 

Just look at how well bilateral trade has fared even in the face of all the economic difficulties. Statistics show that China-EU trade increased 33.1 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months to $434 billion. It is anticipated that such robust trade growth will continue to serve the interests of both sides in the coming years.

 

Admittedly, officials in Brussels have made it clear that they "welcome the support" offered by China. But some people insist on interpreting China's move as only a self-interested bid to expand its influence in Europe by capitalizing on the crisis.

 

For those who believe in the win-win prospect of stronger China-EU economic ties, they need to speak out to help long-term thinking prevail over myopic skepticism.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

DON'T BURY LOVE UNDER CONCRETE

BY HUANG SHUO (CHINA DAILY)

 

Is it necessary for a young man to have an apartment as a prerequisite for marriage?

 

In China, which is following its own unique development path, different from other developing countries in the world, becoming a husband is not easy. In the new "common sense" of China, housing trumps marriage and has become a major obstacle for young men hoping to start a family.

 

China may breed a new group of bachelors, men caught in the trap of unaffordable houses.

 

Since early 2009, the housing market has once again become a hot pot at boiling point. Even with subsidies and special government policies, home prices in China's first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are riding the crest of a rising wave. According to the "2010 China Marital Status Report" jointly released on Dec 15, 2010, by the China Association of Marriage and Family Studies, the Committee of Matchmaking Service Industries under the China Association of Social Workers, and China's leading marriage service provider Baihe.com, about 70 percent of women interviewed said that housing, a stable income and some savings were the main requirements for marriage.

 

From the report, we can see that housing is given top priority and that women see an apartment as essential to show that the man is responsible and can provide for his family.

 

Personality and morals lay outside the top three matrimonial requirements. Some women and their families hold the traditional position and take it for granted that the home issue should be the man's responsibility, which defies the contemporary independent spirit of women and gender equality.

 

These distorted marriage values reflect the fact that many women consider marriage another form of "social welfare".

 

Things may be different overseas. Realty has always been an issue for people in Europe, but governments there have come up with a series of tough measures to regulate property markets in order to deal with the problem properly and maintain sustainable societies, such as collecting property taxes: Owners, buyers and renters are all required to pay annual taxes.

 

In addition, social housing, similar to China's affordable housing, provided by European authorities as welfare for low- and middle-income groups, offer the less well-off their own piece of real estate. Such housing is usually modest-size apartments in tall buildings with 10 or more floors on the outskirts of town, whose main advantage is the low rents.

 

For many Americans, houses don't pose an obstacle to getting married. They often buy a house after the wedding, because more and more people are reconsidering their real estate worship, and going back to a more rational mode of consumption.

 

In Japan, renting is the custom for newly married young couples. Few young couples can afford to purchase property. Up to 67.1 percent of young couples choose to rent. Generally speaking, renters account for most people younger than 40 in Japan.

 

Young people should be free to enjoy being young, without the huge pressure of trying to buy property. Society should help create an environment for them to grow up. Don't let the poor bachelor group become a suffering layer of our society.

 

The author is a reporter with China Daily website.

 

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

SPEED UP INTEREST RATE REFORM

BY GUO TIANYONG (CHINA DAILY)

 

Despite slow progress in the past, market-oriented steps are expected in banking in the next five years

 

China should take more action to promote steady and unwavering marketization of the current rigid interest rate regime, a practice that is widely adopted in developed economies such as the United States and Japan.

 

Due to the influence of a complicated series of political and economic factors, no substantial progress has been achieved in this aspect during the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). However, messages transmitted from a recent top Communist Party of China (CPC) conference indicate that the pace of rate marketization is expected to accelerate in the coming years.

 

At the CPC Central Committee conference, held in October aimed at mapping out guidelines for the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) for national economic and social development, the authorities vowed to steadily push forward marketized reforms of the country's interest rates.

 

The practice of setting the ceiling and bottom interest rates for deposits and loans - to prevent any possible vicious competition among commercial banks for market share - has often meant the country's interest rate level has failed to reflect the real conditions of funds supply and demand. It also serves as the main reason why the country's monetary tools have sometimes failed to produce the expected policy results. More importantly, the ceiling interest rate for deposits has directly resulted in a negative interest rate for big depositors in the context of the ever-rising inflation rate.

 

In the absence of other viable investment channels, a negative interest rate will inevitably cause a large volume of idle funds to swarm into the stock and real estate markets, aggravating bubbles in these two speculation-prone sectors. As the result of such a negative deposit interest rate, excess liquidity will also choose to withdraw from the banking system to the capital and commodity markets, adding to inflation pressures.

 

Given that China is a banking-dominated financial system, the lack of a marketized interest rate regime is equivalent to encouraging commercial banks to seek more profits merely by embracing a deposit-lending rate gap. This will undercut these banks' motivation to improve their ability to ward off financial risks and sharpen their competitiveness.

 

Market-oriented reforms of the interest rate regime will mark an important step toward optimizing the country's economic structure and defusing potential economic problems. The central bank should push forward such reforms in a steady but also more active way.

 

Despite the uniform interest rates adopted by domestic commercial banks for depositors, marketization of the rates will remain an irreversible trend in a globalized context. The suspension of the current administratively regulated ceiling and bottom limits on depositing and lending and allowing them to fluctuate in the market within a certain range will not cause chaos. The policy does not aim to curb the overheating of the national economy but aim to maintain a stable fluidity within the banking sector. In addition, moderate rate fluctuations made by commercial banks under a flexible interest rate regime are not expected to have much impact on the whole national economy.

 

Considering the importance of maintaining financial stability in a post-crisis era, China should push forward marketization of interest rates in a gradual and orderly manner. As the first step, the country should choose a certain region for experimentation and then spread the practice to the rest.

 

Once the current ceiling and bottom rates are suspended, the country's central bank should set an objective and market-sensitive benchmark rate. Currently, the deposit and lending rates the central bank sets for specialized banks and other financial bodies are taken as benchmark rates. As marketization of the rates advances, the SHIBOR, or the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, should be gradually cultivated into the benchmark rates in a bid to push domestic financial bodies to perfect their pricing mechanism. In an era of marketized interest rates, the benchmark rates should play a big role in transmitting messages to the market about the country's financial and monetary policies.

 

As a relatively independent sector, the country's banking industry should enjoy larger pricing power. Market-oriented interest rate reforms should be carried out to facilitate national economic development or the banking sector's self-improvement. To this end, a variety of auxiliary measures, such as a necessary deposit insurance system and a more effective financial oversight mechanism should be put in place.

 

At the same time, the banking sector should also accelerate its transformation, such as expanding its business with small- and medium-sized enterprises and boosting its retail business, to set up a more reasonable assets and income structure and offset the impact brought by marketization of the country's interest rate regime.

 

Given the sluggish progress made over the past years, the country should take more efficient measures to marketize its interest rates in a bid to achieve an essential breakthrough in the years to come. The internationalization of the yuan and the marketization of its exchange rate and derivative tools also require essential steps be taken toward this target.

 

The author is head of the China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics.

 

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

A DIFFERENT ROAD FORWARD

BY YU YONGDING (CHINA DAILY)

 

Painful adjustments needed to sustain advancement in the face of anemic innovation, slow tech upgrades and social tensions

 

China's per-capita income, at $3,800, has surpassed the threshold for a middle-income country.

 

But even as economists and strategists busily extrapolate its future growth path to predict when it will catch up to the United States, the mood in China became somber and subdued in 2010. Indeed, Premier Wen Jiabao sees China's growth as "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable".

 

Economic growth, of course, has never been linear in any country.

 

Throughout history, there are countless examples of middle-income countries becoming stuck in that category for decades or eventually falling back to low-income status. The Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence has pointed out that after WWII, only a handful of countries were able to grow to a fully industrialized level of development.

 

China's progress over the past three decades is a successful variation on the East Asian growth model that stems from the initial conditions created by a planned socialist economy. That growth pattern has now almost exhausted its potential. So China has reached a crucial juncture: without painful structural adjustments, the momentum of its economic growth could suddenly be lost.

 

China's rapid growth has been achieved at an extremely high cost. Only future generations will know the true price. The country's investment rate now stands at more than 50 percent - a clear reflection of China's low capital efficiency.

 

There are two worrying aspects of this high rate. First, local governments influence a large proportion of investment decisions. Second, investment in real estate development accounts for nearly a quarter of the total.

 

Some local governments are literally digging holes and then filling them in to ratchet up the GDP.

 

Consequently, there are simply too many luxurious condominiums, magnificent government office buildings and soaring skyscrapers. Hotels in China's provincial cities make five-star establishments in Western capitals looked shabby.

 

China has become one of the world's most polluted countries. Dust and smog choke its cities. All of the country's major rivers are contaminated. Although progress has been made, deforestation and desertification remain rampant.

 

Drought, floods and landslides have become commonplace. Relentless extraction is quickly depleting China's resource deposits.

 

With China's trade-to-GDP ratio and exports-to-GDP ratio already respectively exceeding 60 percent and 30 percent, the economy cannot continue to depend on external demand to sustain growth.

 

Unfortunately, with a large export sector that employs scores of millions of workers, this dependence has become structural. That means reducing China's trade dependency and trade surplus is much more than a matter of adjusting macroeconomic policy.

 

After decades of rapid expansion, China has become the workshop of the global economy. The problem is that it is no more than a workshop. A lack of innovation and creation are the economy's Achilles' heel.

 

For example, in terms of volume, China has become the world's largest car producer, churning out 17 million vehicles this year. But the proportion of models developed by domestic carmakers is negligible.

 

In an era of rapid technological progress, creativity and innovation, the global economic landscape can change rapidly. Without a strong capacity for innovation and creativity, even a giant has feet of clay. And when a giant falls, many get hurt.

 

While China's living standards have dramatically risen over the past 30 years, the gap between rich and poor has sharply widened.

 

Income distribution has remained skewed in favor of the rich for too long, and the government has failed to provide decent public goods. With the contrast between the opulent lifestyles of the rich and the slow improvement of basic living conditions for the poor fomenting social tension, a serious backlash is brewing.

 

If China fails to tackle its structural problems in time, growth is unlikely to be sustainable. Any structural adjustment is painful. But the longer the delay, the more painful it will be.

 

China's strong fiscal position today gives it a window of opportunity. But that window will close fast, because beneficiaries of specific reform policies have morphed into vested interests, which are fighting hard to protect what they have.

 

What the public resents most is the collusion between government officials and businesspeople, described by the respected Chinese economist Wu Jinglian as "capitalism of the rich and powerful".

 

Breaking this unholy alliance will be the big test for China's leadership in 2011 and beyond. Under China's current institutional arrangements, meritocracy is a prerequisite for good governance.

 

But meritocracy has been eroded by a political culture of sycophancy and cynicism. So, once again, the dialectics of economic development has brought political reform back to the fore.

 

China's rise has generated admiration, envy, suspicion and even outright hostility in some corners of the globe.

 

No matter how often Chinese leaders repudiate any hegemonic ambition, wariness about China's intentions will remain.

 

That is understandable: the rise of new powers has always disrupted the established international order.

 

When this new power is a nation of 1.3 billion people living under an alien political system and ideology, its rise is bound to cause even more uneasiness.

 

Fortunately, because of globalization, China's rise is in everyone's interest, as is the rise of other emerging economies.

 

China should and will play a more active role as a major global stakeholder in such areas as climate change, global imbalances and reforms of the international monetary system. Needless to say, reciprocity will be necessary.

 

Yu Yongding, president of the China Society of World Economics, is a former member of the monetary policy committee of the Peoples' Bank of China, and a former Director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics.

 

Project Syndicate

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

WEN'S VISIT BENEFITS SOUTH ASIA

BY FU XIAOQIANG (CHINA DAILY)

 

Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India and Pakistan from Dec 15 to Dec 19 has reaped satisfactory benefits for China's diplomatic relations with these bordering countries.

 

The South Asian trip achieved a wide range of positive results and made people in the two host countries understand the tangible benefits of China's rapid development.

 

It not only helped China and India create guidelines for a win-win relationship in the coming years but also reinforced the foundation of China's all-weather strategic partnership with Pakistan.

 

India is the only country that has territorial disputes with China. In the context of an accelerated rise of both countries, the West often makes an issue of, or exaggerates, the so-called China-India competition to sow discord between the Asian giants.

 

That highlights the importance of a harmonious coexistence between Beijing and New Delhi, which is key to determining whether Asian ambitions to create a harmonious continent can be realized.

 

The Chinese premier's visit came at a time when both countries were celebrating the 60th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic ties and will enrich the substance of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.

 

Both countries vowed to increase their bilateral trade volume to $150 billion by 2015. The trade value is expected to exceed $60 billion this year, and China will overtake the United States to become India's largest trading partner.

 

Premier Wen promised to increase China's investment in India, and both countries agreed to open their markets to each other.

 

These moves will increase the cross-border flow of personnel, logistics and information, and cultivate a solid economic, non-governmental and cultural foundation for better relations.

 

Expanding exchanges will help China and India reach the point where both benefit from cooperation and would suffer from - and therefore, will avoid - confrontation.

 

Ever-growing economic and trade cooperation over the past two decades, following the normalization of ties, has proven to be bilateral relations' largest driving force and stabilizing factor. Shared development will cause mutual interests to trump confrontations.

 

The overlap of their strategic opportunities is also expected to prevent Beijing and New Delhi from moving too close to rivalry.

 

Consensuses were reached during Wen's visit on the establishment of a series of high-level consultative mechanisms. These include regular visits by heads of state and government, and the establishment of a hotline between their prime ministers.

 

In addition, a "strategic economic dialogue" mechanism coupled with visits by their foreign ministers will also be established.

 

These high-level communication mechanisms, along with consultation channels between their special representatives, will assist the resolution of border disputes and expand bilateral consultations under multilateral frameworks, such as those of the BRIC and G20 summits. They are expected to facilitate communications between the neighbors and ensure thorny issues do not disrupt their cooperation.

 

Their expanding economic and trade ties have also boosted bilateral cooperation on a wide range of global issues. These include energy security, climate change and international trade talks.

 

There is enough space in the world for China and India to pursue greater development through cooperation.

 

Despite differences over some issues, such as border disputes and the Indian Ocean's security, the two Asian giants' economic cooperation is expected to keep them on the track of steady development.

 

It is not China's policy to pursue strategic equilibrium in South Asia.

 

Beijing's friendly ties with Pakistan result from its decades-long, all-weather strategic partnership with Islamabad.

 

After the establishment of diplomatic relations, Pakistan made unremitting efforts to assist China break a diplomatic stalemate in the country's early years and restore its legitimate seat in the United Nations.

 

The strategic partnership between Beijing and Islamabad originates from common geopolitical and strategic interests. Consequently, the neighbors are mutually supportive on a series of issues pertinent to their core interests.

 

The author is a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

     EDITORIAL

WHAT THE GOVT. AND HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS OWE PATIENTS

 

If Sri Lanka is to succeed in its plan to become a highly developed or wealthy nation then the government needs to take effective steps to ensure we are also a healthy nation. The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) recently rated Sri Lanka as the best in Asia in terms of curbing infant death rates and related factors. Yet that is only a small step in restoring a health service where the well-being of the patients is given top priority.

 

Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena has promised a much needed and much awaited gift for Sri Lanka  in the New Year– legislation for a National Medicinal Drugs Policy based on the essential medicines concept of Professor Senaka Bibile. The minister has said he will present legislation to implement this policy's first phase, the appointment of a National Medicinal Drug Regulatory Authority comprising eminent medical specialists, pharmacologists and a representative of the patients' movement. The first task of the NMDRA will be to review the thousands of drugs registered since 1977. Estimates of the number ranged from 9,000 to 16,000 but no one is sure and as a result there is a grave crisis where hundreds if not thousands of counterfeit or substandard drugs are being given to patients. This is one of the main reasons why hospitals are more crowded than market places and most people fall or feel sick more often despite all the marvelous advances in medical science. The NMDRA, independent but under the authority of the minister will review all the drugs that have been registered and reduce the number to about thousand based on Prof. Bibile's essential medicines concept. While this vital though difficult task is being implemented amid opposition from vested interests including transnational drug companies, the Health Minister also needs to act on the implementation of a Charter of Patients Rights and Responsibilities. 

 

Several years ago the People's Movement for the Rights of Patients submitted a comprehensive draft for such a charter to the then Health Minister. Recently a PMRP delegation met Minister Sirisena and submitted a copy of this draft charter to him also.

 

According to this draft, the Charter will have 12 rights for patients and six responsibilities.

 

The purpose of this Charter is to explain to Sri Lankans their Rights and Responsibilities when using health care services.

 

Formalized in 1948 and accepted by the world community, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights recognizes the "inherent dignity" and the "equal and unalienable rights of all members of the human family".  It is on the basis of this concept of the person and the fundamental dignity and equality of all human beings that the principle of patient rights was developed.

 

Patients' rights refer to what is owed to the patient as a human being by healthcare providers and the government.

 

Patients' rights and responsibilities vary in different countries and in different jurisdictions.  The prevailing cultural and social norms will determine the set of patients' rights and responsibilities in a particular country.

 

Assuring that the rights of patients are protected, requires much more than educating policy makers and healthcare providers.  It requires educating citizens about what they should expect from their governments and their healthcare providers.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

NEPAL: SUPREME COURT INTERVENES TO END THE POLITICAL IMPASSE

BY S. CHANDRASEKHARAN

 

Despite chaotic conditions, Nepal continues to provide surprises. In a situation where the boundaries between the executive, legislative and the judiciary are fuzzy, the President on 13th December directed the Speaker to convene the parliament on the 19th of December and the Supreme Court in turn took the unusual decision on the 13th that in the election to the post of the prime minister, no member can abstain and that no one can be elected unopposed either!

 

More surprising was the quick pace and the quick decisions taken by the high-level task committee led by Prachanda in deciding on many of the contentious issues concerning the new constitution. The central committee meeting of the Maoists sprang another surprise by declaring India as the "main enemy" despite the reservations of the factions led by Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai!

 

The Supreme Court Directive:

 

On the 17th of December, the Supreme Court held that in the election to the post of the prime minister, the law makers cannot abstain from voting and that if there is an election no candidate can be declared as prime minister unopposed. It said that staying neutral is against the provisions of both the interim constitution and the constituent assembly regulations. It is not clear how the court came to such a conclusion and surely the parliamentarians cannot be compelled to vote in an election where they are opposed to both or more of the candidates standing for the election.

 

This would mean that the Prime minister has to be elected through a majority for which there has to be two candidates. For this, Paudel the Nepali Congress candidate will have to withdraw first.

 

Surprisingly both the Maoists and the Nepali Congress have welcomed the judgement. The Nepali Congress feels that the UML whose votes are crucial cannot remain neutral anymore forgetting the fact that the UML is currently vertically split, one favouring the Maoists and the other the Nepali Congress. Also, the chairman of UML will now renew his ambitions to become the prime minister. All his efforts to get Madhav Nepal of his own party to quit would be a waste other wise!

 

The Maoists on the other hand are hoping that the chairman of the UML, Jhala Nath Khanal would be able to prevail over the other faction led by K.P. Oli to vote the Maoists into power once again.

 

The position of the Madheshi groups of parties is also not clear and though it has held together so far, it could split again with one group voting for the Maoists. All of a sudden, the Nepali Congress is finding itself divided, with the Deuba faction not favouring Paudel anymore.

 

Thus the President's direction and the Supreme Court decision are unlikely to solve the present political impasse unless there is a change of heart of one of the three main parties.

 

UNMIN:

 

The UNMIN is set to leave on January 15, 2001 and this was made clear by the visiting Under Secretary General B.Lynn.Pascoe on the 4th of December. During his visit he urged the parties to resolve the issues relating to integration/rehabilitation and statute making expeditiously.

 

He made it clear that the UNMIN will quit but said that the issue will remain on the UN agenda for the next three years. It is not clear what he meant by this. The government has asked the UNMIN to leave the equipment that will include monitoring devices, weapons containers and the installations in the seven main cantonments and in the main barracks where weapons are stored..

 

The Maoists are still fighting a rear guard battle to retain the UNMIN until May 28th- that is until the expiry of the interim constitution. The Nepali Congress does not mind the UNMIN continuing but only with a revised brief that will not include the monitoring of the Nepalese Army.

 

The question arises - what happens to the Joint Monitoring Coordination Committee which will have no legal existence once the UNMIN leaves? The Government is of the view that the special committee for supervision, integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants can take over the duties of UNMIN. For this, there will have to be an agreement amongst the parties. Even if an agreement is reached, the government does not have fool proof means to monitor the camps.

 

The only way out is to expedite the integration as quickly as possible. Surprisingly, in an informal check with the combatants, it is said that roughly half the combatants would prefer rehabilitation. There is a great demand for Nepalese manpower abroad and many of the combatants would prefer to go abroad and make some money.

 

The technical committee for integration has come out with an unusual suggestion that those who want to be integrated could be absorbed in the three security units of the country, the Nepal Army, the Nepal Police and the Armed Police Force (APF) in proportion to their existing strength. The proportional strength of the three units comes to 50, 31 and 19 percent respectively and if only half or less than half of 19602 combatants are to be integrated, they could be absorbed in the same proportion. This is doable.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

18TH AMENDMENT- A TACTICAL MOVE: DEW

 

D. S:  Can you explain the concept of a Senior Minister; many are perplexed by what this portfolio really entails; what are the obligations and responsibilities of a Senior Minister?

 

The appointment of Ministers and the allocations of funds is a prerogative of the President. In my view what I feel is that this is a new concept, it has been tried out in other countries, and I don't know whether it has been proved successful- anyway we are giving this concept a trial run.

 

This is the concept of a cluster system. For example I am the Senior Minister for human resources; the human resources embrace a wider region- the ministry of education, the ministry of higher education, ministry of vocational training, ministry of sport and some others. One of the main challenges faced by my Ministry is employment- this is also a challenge in terms of development. Today we have to taken into account the development in the world economy, developments in the region, and also the fact that we are turning out a large number of educated people at the level of GCE O/Levels, at the level of GCE A/Levels, on the university and postgraduate levels. Now we have felt the need to scientifically and technologically train these people for the labour market. Unless we train them within the next 5 or 10 years - at the rate that the world economy is growing- our people will be left behind. That is why the President is thinking in terms of pooling the resources into three Ministries for policy formation, planning and coordination- not for everyday work in the Ministry, these will be done by the respective Ministers.

 

D. S: This then is a means of organizing the Government into a tighter hierarchical system?

 

I think over a period, since independence the Ministers in the D.S Senanayake Government and subsequent Governments were concentrating on policy. But today, Minister- I myself having being a Minister, are called up to attend on unnecessary jobs meeting people all the time and giving them letters to go from pillar to post and various other tasks. But senior Ministers are expected to devote time to policy formation, which has been lacking.

 

There might be various other measures that can be taken to sort out these issues; however the President having considered the other options has come up with this allocation of functions.

 

D. S: What will be done to improve the skills of the workforce?

 

What we have found is that the group that come out of University if very ineffective because they have gained only a purely theoretical knowledge. However today science and technology is developing so fast in the world and therefore science and technological innovation is needed. The character of labour is changing; we have to train them skills in science and technology. Therefore there is need for reforms of the educational system, administrative service, and the entire public service.

 

Caller: Ruvinka from Negombo- I read in the paper that the Government plans on importing Camels. I feel that the government is spending valuable tax payer money on worthless projects like this. Why is there no efficient use of resources?

 

That matter comes under the Ministry of trade; if that is correct then I am inclined to accept your position on this unnecessary expenditure. If this information is correct I don't know what made him to take such a decision. 

 

Caller: Paul from Kotahena- I want to ask the Minister about the cost of living- with the Christmas season prices are going up at a rate and our salaries are not increasing. I thought that the President was going to give us some relief once he came into power and ended the war?

 

I agree with you that there was a rise in the cost of living and that can be attributed to a number of factors. During the festive season naturally the prices go up. If you compare the December 2009 price list and the 2010 price list certain commodities the prices are lest. Another factor is seasonal changes; the monsoon season, because we had continuous rain for one month, so that effected our agriculture. The third factor is that on the international market prices have gone up.

 

My own thinking is that our domestic demand is constant; for the last 5 years our economy has been developing at a rate, I observed that most of the countries in the Asian region that are developing fast have a constant demand- this means that there is a large middle class coming up and the domestic demand and purchasing power is present. Even at present even though the prices go up the demand persists- that means the purchasing power is there. But as a result the lower classes are being disadvantaged.

 

The only solution to this is that the Government intervention is necessary. We tried this out in the case of rise- and this is the only government that has been able to solve this issue.

 

But that is the only solution because it has been proved under socialist governments that distribution of food cannot be done by the Government. The private sector should be allowed to operate and the government intervention should be there- that is the ost effective practice.

 

A number of seasonal factors are in play- but you wait and see by the 1st of January prices will come down.

 

Online question: from Rohana Konara

 

The Sri Lanka communist party has completely been against the existing executive presidential system since its beginning, but you and your party has not taken any effort to prevent the continuation of this system. Do you think it is suitable for our country?

 

I agree with him that our principlal position is to come back to the Westminster model and when this new constitution was proposed in 1977 we opposed it. I can say that I was one of the principal persons- along with Dr. N.M Perera, Colvin, Dr.Wikramasinghe- all of us having been defeated badly were very weak and couldn't do anything yet after organizing a protest before the Parliament. We continued to hold the same view- we have not deviated from this position. 

 

I know that this question has been asked because we supported the 18th amendment. But the 18th amendment had two aspects one was – the constitutional council and second – the extension of the Presidents term. I said that in my speech in Parliament and told the President that during my discussions with him. I was the chairman of the select committee which was required by the Parliament- both the opposition and the government jointly appointed me to that position. And for five years I attempted to bring about a consensus to amend the 17th amendment- I failed to get this. I met the leader of the opposition about thrice in his residence, yet I had to abandon the idea. That is how the need for the 18th amendment came about- with regards to that aspect.

 

But on the extension of the Presidents term- this was a tactical position. We take a principal decision and we make tactical changes because we are in a coalition government and have to take into account the overall political scenario.

 

D.S: some might view this as you compromising on your political ideology in order to adapt it to your political strategy.

 

No: the political ideology is socialism and it's still the same. You find Presidents even in socialist and capitalist countries. We oppose the Executive Presidency due to the concentration of power. That is why we say that we took a tactical step- there are 16 parties in the present coalition, but we can't always agree on everything therefore we have to accommodate everyone in making a decision.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC CHANGE

 

The new world economic balance is undoubtedly tilted towards the East. It would not have required rocket science to draw the thin line between optimists and pessimists in the developing and the developed world, respectively, but the Gallup survey conducted in 53 countries has come up with few interesting observations.

 

The foremost is the fact that the largest numbers of optimists live in China, Brazil and India, and the most depressed souls are in the capitalist stronghold of United Kingdom. This is no mean conclusion that could be brushed under the carpet, but goes on to pin point the socio-economic dynamics that have changed in the political and perceptional realms both in the east and the west.

 

Whatever may be the forecast on the macro-economic level, the truth is that pessimism is on the rise and issues such as soaring inflation, unemployment and a relative fall in standard of living is bothering all and sundry. This is why more than 42 per cent of people surveyed believe that the forthcoming year would not herald any change for the good. This perspective of gloom is not without reason, as the prosperous West has come down hard on subsidies and their public relationeering stimulus package has failed to yield results. Apart from minuscule growth in some countries of the European Union, primarily Germany and France, the continent is gripped in debt crisis and currency woes. Thus it is not unreal to see Brits adopt a pessimistic attitude as pound sterling walks a tightrope in its contours with the embattled dollar and a nervous euro, in the absence of growth, consecutively for the third quarter of this year. To further compound the situation on the continent is the phenomenon that recovery remains patchy and fragile, even though the Eurozone as a whole is limping out of recession.

 

This gloomy picture of economic growth can only be rectified through consistent political and institutional measures. The monetary donors have no other recourse but to inject in as much liquidity as possible in order avoid bankruptcy, and enable the cash crunch economies to stay afloat. Though the eastern economies, especially those of BRIC, have enjoyed rapid growth for long, the wealth still remains concentrated in (Europe and North America. It is this special relationship of production and consumption that is in need of being choreographed for good. Bolstering growth and disseminating the riches of technology and wealth should come out of protectionism barriers — the sooner the better. If the east is producing, the west can keep the wheel of economy turning by spending and investing in the future.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

MILITARY GREAT WALL AROUND CHINA

 

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's recent visit to India and Pakistan is of strategic significance from a defence perspective. Trade and aid help China, a rising superpower, make new allies, check foes and bolster its defence.

 

Giving China this superpower status are its multi-trillion dollar foreign reserves, its nuclear arsenal, its strategic missiles, its ability to shoot down space satellites, its hi-tech navy, its presence in strategic ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Burma and Bangladesh, its economic aid to and investments in Africa and its exploration of oil wells in Iraq, Sudan and Central America.

 

But only a few see China as a state under siege. It is surrounded by nations that can turn hostile if the need arises.

 

Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, the member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations and the United States are nations with whom China does roaring business. But all these nations are, to varying degrees, uncomfortable with China's military power. Ironically, China's military power grew in response to a real or perceived threat from these very nations.

 

In recent months and years, China's pro-West neighbours including Japan, Australia, and New Zealand have come up with defence white papers wherein China has been mentioned as a threat or security concern.

 

Japan's defence white paper or the National Defence Programme Guideline released last week identified North Korea as a security threat and China as a security concern.

 

The guideline comes against the backdrop of a humiliating setback Japan suffered in a war of words with China over the arrest of a Chinese vessel by Japanese coastguards near a disputed island known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Japan was forced to release the vessel and its captain after China flexed a little bit of its military muscle near the gas-and-oil-rich disputed islands.

 

The guideline promotes Japan's "dynamic defence capability" to deter China around the disputed islands and calls for stronger security cooperation with the United States, South Korea and Australia.

 

Meanwhile, Australia's defence establishment in a white paper released in May last year had identified China as a military threat.

 

Echoing Australia's anxieties was New Zealand. In a defence white paper it released last month, New Zealand says, "there will be a natural tendency for it (China) to define and pursue its interests in a more forthright way on the back of growing wealth and power."

 

Obviously, these white papers have drawn an angry response from China. Recent Wikileaks cables say Beijing had warned Canberra that it would "suffer the consequences" if references to China were not watered down.

 

Adding to China's defence woes is the growing US military presence in the region. The United States maintains military bases in Japan and South Korea. The ostensible reason for the US military presence is to counter the threat posed by North Korea. But the actual reason is that Washington is apprehensive of China's growing military power.

 

It is no secret that the US is bound by a treaty to defend Taiwan if China uses military power to regain the island. It is also no secret that the US is building an 8-billion-dollar military complex with a dock for nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a missile defence system on the Pacific island of Guam to contain China's military build-up.

 

China is a nuclear power and therefore, no country would want to go to war with it. Yet, if there is a conventional war, it will be disadvantageous to China, for it will have to fight it alone against a powerful US-led alliance including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

 

China's so-called allies such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, Venezuela and some African nations will be of little help, because either they are militarily weak or they would see wisdom in neutrality. With Russia's stance unpredictable, perhaps only North Korea may come to China's aid. Besides, in dissident regions such as Tibet and Xingjian, the anti-China alliance will find fifth columns to be used in the manner that the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and the Kurds and Shiites in Iraq were used during the US invasions of the two countries.

 

It is these disadvantages that drive China on an economic offensive on the basis that a state will not turn hostile with another state with which it does flourishing business. In India, Wen set a US$ 100 billion bilateral trade target by 2015 and offered support for New Delhi's bid for a greater role in the United Nations.

 

In Pakistan, Wen's mission took a different shape. Pakistan accorded him the kind of welcome which only a visiting US president would normally receive. It underscored a growing perception in Pakistan that China is more trustworthy than the US which, many in Pakistan believe, has a secret agenda to destabilize and denuclearize Pakistan.

 

China, on the other hand, seeks Pakistan's stability because it is through Pakistan that China sees a land-based trade route to West Asia, Central Asia and Europe.

 

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