EDITORIAL 09.12.09

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Editorial

month december 09, edition 000371, collected & managed by durgesh kumar mishra, published by – manish manjul

 

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THE PIONEER

1. NOT A FLIGHT OF FANCY
2. DIALOGUE CAN'T BE IGNORED - ASHOK K MEHTA
3. HINDI, BENGALI COMPATIBLE - PRIYADARSI DUTTA
4. TERROR PLOT UNRAVELS - SHASHI SHEKHAR
5. MIND OF A JIHADI - B RAMAN
6. Silly to deny climate change - Anuradha Dutt
7. CURBING USE OF PLASTIC BAGS, CREATING JOBS - SANJAY DAVE

MAIL TODAY

1. A CASUAL APPROACH TO THE BABRI DEBATE
2. OUR RUSSIAN SHIELD
3. REPLACE HIM
4. SHEER BRAVERY CANNOT WIN YOU A WAR - BY PUSHPENDRA SINGH
5. DECCAN BUZZ - A SRINIVASA RAO

TIMES OF INDIA

1. MOSCOW MOVES
2. DON'T SIT ON IT
3. THE ROAD AHEAD - DAVID MILIBAND9 DECEMBER
4. A FIVE-STAR LIFE - LEENA NANDAN
5. 'HARDLY ANY INDIAN FILM GETS RELEASED IN ITALY'
6. A CONVENIENT LIE? - JUG SURAIYA 
7. STAY STEADFAST ON THE PATH OF 'DHARMA' - SHRI SHRI ANANDAMURTI

HINDUSTAN TIMES

1. BACK IN THE USSR
2. LOST AND NOT FOUND
3. THE RAJ STRIKES BACK - SAGARIKA GHOSE
4. AREN'T OUR JUDGES INDIAN? - SUDHANSHU RANJAN
5. KINDS OF BELIEF, GOOD AND BAD - P.P. WANGCHUK
6. WALLOW THE LEADER - UDDALOK BHATTACHARYA

INDIAN EXPRESS

1. LAW UNTO HIMSELF
2. LEARN TO SAY YES
3. LAHORE LIVES AT NIGHT - MURTAZA RAZVI
4. MORE THAN JUST SYMBOLS - ASHLEY J. TELLIS
5. MOVING IN FOR THE SKILL - BIBEK DEBROY
6. SETTING OUR MPS FREE - MANISH TEWARI
7. HACKING THE DEBATE
8. VIEW FROM THE LEFT - MANOJ C G P

FINANCIAL EXPRESS

1. IN THE INTEREST OF GROWTH
2. NUCLEAR IS A BIG DEAL
3. DON'T CREATE LICENCE RAJ IN CLIMATE - MICHAEL WALTON
4. STATISTICS VS REAL PICTURE IN AGRICULTURE - YOGINDER K ALAGH
5. BEER IS ABOUT DISTRIBUTION - REGHU BALAKRISHNAN

THE HINDU

1. CORRECT DIAGNOSIS, WRONG CURE
2. LIMITING SALT INTAKE
3. TWO BJP MEN, SO ALIKE AND SO DIFFERENT - VIDYA SUBRAHMANIAM
4. HISTORIC CASE, FRESH UNCERTAINTIES - NIRUPAMA SUBRAMANIAN
5. NITROUS OXIDE CONCERNS CLOUD FUTURE OF BIOFUELS - ALOK JHA
6. POLLUTION FEARS STIR BACKLASH ON NATURAL GAS BOOM - JAD MOUAWAD AND CLIFFORD KRAUSS
7. THE CLIMATE DENIAL INDUSTRY SEEKS TO DUPE THE PUBLIC. IT'S WORKING -
8. GEORGE MONBIOT

DNA

1. ONE MORE LINK
2. BEAR HUG
3. TOO HASTY AN EXIT - YOGI AGGARWAL 
4. UK'S ARROGANCE OF POWERLESSNESS - VENKATESAN VEMBU 

THE TRIBUNE

1. A DEAL THAT INDIA WANTED
2. UNMASKING TERROR LINKS
3. LUDHIANA UNREST
4. THE OBAMA STRATEGY - BY K. SUBRAHMANYAM
5. LAST LETTER OR WILL? - BY BRIG A. N. SURYANARAYANAN
6. NEW SPIRIT OF COOPERATION - BY NIRANJAN DESAI
7. ENSURING GOOD GOVERNANCE IN HARYANA - BY RANBIR SINGH
8. SEA LEVELS MAY RISE FASTER - BY STEVE CONNOR

 THE ASSAM TRIBUNE

1. ON TOP OF WORLD
2. WITCH-HUNTING
3. A FRAMEWORK FOR TALKS WITH ULFA - H N DAS
4. CERVICAL CANCER – A THREAT TO WOMEN - CHANDANA CHOUDHURY BARUA

 THE ECONOMIC TIMES

1. INDIAN SPORTSPERSON OF 2009
2. FOR SHARED E-ACCOUNTS
3. NEW WARMTH TO OLD TIES
4. LETTING GO VITAL FOR SELF-ATTAINMENT - VITHAL C NADKARNI
5. NIL DERIVATIVE FEES ANTI-COMPETITIVE?
6. ZERO LEVY DOESN'T MAKE IT ANTI-COMPETITIVE - VINOD DHALL
7. PREDATORY PRICING ONLY FOR INTRODUCTORY PHASE - M R MAYYA
8. CARBON CUTS: PENALTY OR INSURANCE? - SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR
9. WE WANT TO REPLICATE HDFC-ERGO ON LIFE SIDE: NIKOLAUS VON BOMHARD - MAYUR SHETTY
10. REGULATION CAN BE ENLIGHTENED AND UNOBTRUSIVE: KHURSHID
11. 'WE'VE GOT MONEY. WE WON'T MIND BUYING QUALITY ASSETS' - GEORGE CHERIAN

 

DECCAN CHRONICAL

1. NEW DIMENSION TO AN OLD RELATIONSHIP
2. INFERNAL AFFAIRS - BY INDER MALHOTRA
3. AFGHANISTAN AND US PRESIDENT'S THREE CS - BY ROGER COHEN
4. ASSAM: FORGET RHETORIC, GET REAL - BY SANJOY HAZARIKA
5. A FIGHT FOR RIGHTS THAT ISN'T RIGHT - BY MEENAKSHI GANGULY
6. ONE-UNIT-FAITH  - BY NADEEM F. PARACHA

THE STATESMAN

1. THE SOMNATH FACTOR
2. QUIET, EFFICIENT
3. THE ASSAM BREW
4. TWENTY YEARS AFTER
5. BY SUSHILA RAMASWAMY
6. SCIENTISTS DISCOVER GENE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURLY HAIR
7. PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

THE TELEGRAPH

1. CARE TO CARE
2. STREET POWER
3. THE DEFENSIVE MINDSET - K.P. NAYAR
4. STRANGE EFFECTS - STEPHEN HUGH-JONES

DECCAN HERALD

1. INJUDICIOUS AT BEST
2. FRIENDS FOR EVER
3. LOAN SHARKING - BY DEVINDER SHARMA
4. THE RISE OF RETRO POPULISM IN THE US - BY MARK SOMMER, IPS
5. THE SOUND-BITE HYPE - BY ARUN BHATIA

THE JERUSALEM POST

1. JUSTICE AND HALACHA
2. GRAPEVINE: CONFRONTING PERSECUTION - GREER FAY CASHMAN
3. SUSPEND YOUR ZIONISM - YISRAEL MEDAD
4. HOW A SOCCER GAME SURVIVED A HIJACKING ATTEMPT - ROB BROWN
5. THE SWEDISH INITIATIVE AS METAPHOR - YOSSI ALPHER

HAARETZ

1. ONE CHAIN OF COMMAND
2. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - BY ALUF BENN
3. GIVE THEM BOOKS - BY AVIRAMA GOLAN
4. HOW ISRAEL MANIPULATES ITS CITIZENS - BY AMIRA HASS
5. BIALIK TOO HARD? TRY KOFIKO - BY NA'AMA SHEFFI

THE NEW YORK TIMES

1. SENATOR BRUNO'S LEGACY
2. THE 'TERROR GAP'
3. AMERICAN STORIES, FROM MEXICAN ROOTS - BY LAWRENCE DOWNES
4. GOING CHENEY ON CLIMATE - BY THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
5. WHAT MY AMENDMENT WON'T DO - BY BART STUPAK
6. CATCH OF THE FREEZER - BY ASTRID SCHOLZ, ULF SONESSON AND PETER TYEDMERS
7. TEAR DOWN THAT HOUSE - BY PAUL O'NEILL

I.THE NEWS

1. DEATH AND DISABILITY
2. HUNT FOR HAVENS
3. THE LDA'S DRIVE
4. CORRUPTION, RAMPANT AND GALORE - SHAMSHAD AHMAD
5. SPARE A THOUGHT, MR OBAMA - ZAFAR HILALY
6. FACTS VS FICTION - DR A Q KHAN
7. LIBERALS LOSING THE BATTLE? - SHAHID KARDAR
8. GAME, SET AND MATCH TO? - ANJUM NIAZ
9. BALOCHISTAN PACKAGE - TAYYAB SIDDIQUI

PAKISTAN OBSERVER

1. A GOOD GESTURE OF PRESIDENT ZARDARI
2. TERRORISM: THINK OF OTHER OPTIONS AS WELL
3. RUPEE BECOMES SKINNIER
4. WAR AGAINST PAKISTAN - LT COL ZAHEERUL HASSAN (R)
5. SAARC: ACHIEVEMENTS AND LIMITATIONS - DR M ASLAM KHAN
6. A RAY OF HOPE IN BALOCHISTAN - MUNIR AHMAD
7. NEW US AFGHAN STRATEGY & NATO - F Z KHAN
8. TALKING HIMSELF TO DEATH..! - ROBERT CLEMENTS

THE INDEPENDENT

1. NEW TRAFFIC RULES
2. LOAN TO WOMEN
3. OSAMA'S HIDING PLACE..!
4. TOO BIG TO LIVE  - JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ
5. LOOKING TO COPENHAGEN FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE - TARIK HASAN SHAHRIAR
6. SWISS VOTE AGAINST THE MINARET - ABIDULLAH GHAZI
7. PUBLIC HEALTH TO RECEIVE PRIORITY - DHIRAJ KUMAR NATH
8. AN ASSAMESE MAGAZINE REJECTS ADS ON PRINCIPLE - NAVA THAKURIA
9. WHITHER AFGHAN-PAK STRATEGY? - KAWSER AHMED
10. LUNGI REINVENTED !

THE HIMALAYAN

1. WAKE UP CALL
2. SOME ANTI-BANDH
3. HIGHER EDUCATION INTERESTS WORKPLACE OPPORTUNITIES - MANA PRASAD WAGLEY
4. GAGA OVER MIDWAY SYNDROME - KAMAL DEV BHATTARAI
5. INGOS WASH HANDS OFF HIV/AIDS PROGRAMMES - LAXMI MAHARJAN

THE AUSTRALIAN

1. CANCEL CHRISTMAS -- THE COALITION'S READY TO ROLL
2. CANBERRA SHOULD STAY OUT OF APPROVING URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE
3. KENEALLY SETS CABINET'S COURSE

THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

1. HEALTH MUST STAY SICK FOR NOW
2. BALIBO'S FACTS KEEP INTRUDING
3. THE ST KILDA TRIANGLE GOES BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD
4. PRIVATE OR PUBLIC, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR CASH-FOR-ACCESS

THE GURDIAN

1. PAKISTAN: DANGEROUS ESCALATION
2. IN PRAISE OF… MOLIÈRE
3. YOUTH CUSTODY: FORMULAS FOR FAILURE

THE KOREA HERALD

1. FUTENMA DILEMMA
2. BOSWORTH MISSION
3. GOVERNMENTS PLAY RUSSIAN ROULETTE  - MIKHAIL GORBACHEV/ALEXANDER LIKHOTAL
4. COMPARISONS ARE MISLEADING  - KIM SEONG-KON

THE JAPAN TIMES

1. AT LAST, AN AFGHAN STRATEGY
2. DOOM AND GLOOM SCENARIOS FOR LIFEBOAT JAPAN
3. BY GWYNNE DYER

THE JAKARTA POST

1. CLIMATE TALKS: ALL ABOUT RIGHTS TO HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT - NGURAH SWAJAYA
2. ANTICORRUPTION ALL THE TIME
3. CENTURY SCANDAL: LESSON OR NO LESSON LEARNED? - GAUTAMA ADI KUSUMA
4. CLERICS ARE NO LONGER CULTURAL BROKERS - MUHAMMAD AS'AD

CHINA DAILY

1. INCOME-FUELED GROWTH
2. LESSONS FROM STAMPEDE
3. LOW-CARBON INNOVATION VERSUS TRADE WAR - BY DENNIS PAMLIN (CHINA DAILY)
4. OBAMA'S AFGHANISTAN PLAN FRAUGHT WITH RISKS - BY MA CHAO (CHINA DAILY)
5. IMPROVING LIVELIHOOD IS THE FOCUS - BY YI XIANRONG (CHINA DAILY)
6. BEING KNOWLEDGEABLE ≠ BEING CLEAN - BY ZHU YUAN (CHINA DAILY)
7. BALANCING ACT FOR POST-CRISIS ERA - BY LIU YUHUI (CHINA DAILY)

THE MOSCOW TIMES

1. CATCHING UP WITH AND SURPASSING GUINEA - BY YULIA LATYNINA
2. KEEPING THE 'R' WHERE IT BELONGS IN BRIC - BY MARTIN GILMAN
3. A WINDOW FOR DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS - BY JAMES BEADLE

 

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THE PIONEER

EDIT DESK

NOT A FLIGHT OF FANCY

SPACE TOURISM NEEDS TO BE DEBATED

 

Commercial space tourism has received a boost with Virgin Galactic unveiling SpaceShip Two, the space pod that will take paying customers on a trip beyond the Earth's atmosphere by 2011. It is hardly surprising that the event has got millionaire space enthusiasts gushing at the possibility of becoming astronauts-for-a-day. Apparently 300 people are already on Virgin Galactic's waiting list and a couple of hundred more have expressed interest in space tourism on the company's website. A typical Virgin Galactic space jaunt will cost $ 200,000 and involve the SpaceShip Two taking passengers on a two-hour space flight during which those on-board will get to experience six precious minutes of weightlessness before crashing back down to Earth. All of this sounds very fascinating indeed. Nonetheless, there is a bigger issue here that cannot be overlooked. Proponents of commercial space tourism like Dennis Tito — the first commercial space tourist — and Richard Branson have been vigorously pushing the idea of space joyrides for the average Joe. However, sending people into space is a serious matter that cannot be taken lightly. Any flight into space is a risky proposition. There are numerous safety issues involved. Professional astronauts spend months training for a space flight. They have teams comprising hundreds of people who oversee and conduct various aspects of the space mission. Yet there are times when things don't turn out the way they are supposed to. Astronaut Kalpana Chawla's tragic death exemplifies this point. Therefore, in order to allow private space tourism operators to carry on with their venture in a safe and secure manner they would have to be subjected to stringent guidelines and regulations.

But given the inherently risky nature of space flights, the problem is that there are no guidelines stringent enough to ensure 100 per cent safety for the space tourists. In such a scenario, the question is should Governments around the world encourage the growth of a commercial space tourism industry knowing full well that there is no way one can ensure the safety of the amateur astronauts. Also, there is a clear distinction between space exploration for scientific purposes and space tourism. It is very important that the two are never confused. The agencies and the people involved in the former are skilled professionals who are dedicated to studying space and its various qualities. Thus, when an astronaut undertakes a trip to the International Space Station, he knows why he is doing what he is doing and is trained and prepared for any eventuality. But profit-driven companies advertising space tourism will tend to water down the risks involved with the venture in order to attract more customers. This is simply unacceptable; the issue of space tourism needs to be looked at afresh.

 

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THE PIONEER

DIALOGUE CAN'T BE IGNORED

ASHOK K MEHTA

Even in the worst of adversarial relations, there is merit in keeping the conversation going. Snapping dialogue leads to unwarranted erosion of painstakingly nurtured confidence building measures and people-to-people contacts. Between India and Pakistan playing cricket in a third country is not cricket. One year after 26/11, and seven dossiers later, much water has flown down the Indus and Ganga without breaking banks. Pakistan has repeatedly called for resumption of composite dialogue held in abeyance since Mumbai, saying let terrorists not hold the peace process hostage. India is unmoved, refusing to revive talks till the 26/11 culprits are punished.

Track II, the saviour during such an impasse, provides a useful feedback on the mood in the two countries though both country delegates tend to toe the official line with few good exceptions. Last month's Friedrich Ebert Stiftung-hosted India-Pakistan conference in Singapore, the seventh in a row after the attack on Parliament, proved a useful exception. It has good luck charm as its members have become Vice Presidents, Prime Ministers, Members of Parliament, editors and media advisors to Prime Ministers.

Here are a few vignettes of the conference which covered US strategy in AfPak and the ongoing wars against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan; prospects of India-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan; unrest in Balochistan and India's alleged involvement; sectarian violence in Gilgit-Baltistan; situation and internal dialogue in Jammu & Kashmir and the four-point Kashmir formula; and India-Pakistan relations post-Mumbai; and the way ahead.

First, the macro view. Compared to India which has fared commendably in assimilating and integrating tribal areas in the North-East and managing unrest and alienation in Jammu & Kashmir, the Pakistani experience has been bitter and unsuccessful.

While India has used carrot and stick, that is dialogue and calibrated military force, Pakistan has resorted to maximum military means to quell insurgencies, employing intense fire power including air and heavy artillery which has led to civilian casualties, displacement of population, alienation and destruction of infrastructure.

The list of foul-ups is long — the separation of East Pakistan, the turmoil and turbulence in the Frontier Tribal Areas, sectarian violence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the unrest in Balochistan, which is now ripe for another Bangladesh. The discussions on Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan were especially embarrassing for the Pakistani side as the two delegates from these areas pulled no punches.

The big picture emerging in new Pakistan as visualised by its delegates seemed too good to be true. The new actors in this new Pakistan were a fiercely independent media, an independent judiciary and a robust civil society. According to this visualisation, the Army and the ISI had said tauba and so had the ISI to dirty tricks. For abundant caution there was a post script — both will say tauba once more.

 

The Pakistani specialist on Afghanistan painted a bleak picture of US and Pakistani military campaigns to quell their respective Talibans. He felt that the wars were unwinnable due to poor intelligence. Privately though, a Pakistani mentioned that the ISI was very strong inside Afghanistan, confirming Gen Pervez Musharraf's recent assertion that the ISI had penetrated all militant organisations though ground operations do not reflect proportionate success.

The Afghan Taliban will not negotiate and reconcile as they know they are winning even after the civilian and military surge is effective. The elusive Mullah Omar had a 98 per cent following among the Taliban and was the blue-eyed boy of the Pakistani Army. He would not annoy it as the Taliban need sanctuaries in Pakistan. Latest reports indicate that he has been moved from Quetta to Karachi to avoid being struck by US drones.

The Afghan expert added that foreign forces are anathema for the locals. Who is helping the Afghan Taliban, he asked. Iran was playing a double game and Russia and China had secretly received Taliban delegations.

Afghanistan has become an emotional and contentious issue between the two countries. Islamabad seeks strategic depth which some Pakistanis feel is an outdated concept and shudder at the thought of a Taliban takeover. The last thing India wants is a return of the Taliban and certainly no depth of any kind for Pakistan. This does not translate into encirclement of Pakistan as the delegates feared. Despite the common goal of minus Taliban, both countries are cancelling each other out, rather than cooperating to help Afghans grow and prosper.

Pakistan will not even permit nutritional biscuits to be sent overland and since 2002 these have been transitted through Iran at 20 per cent extra cost. Pakistan is highly suspicious of India's generosity — $ 1.2 billion developmental assistance — as their delegates sarcastically enquired: "Where was India when the Soviet Union nvaded Afghanistan and Pakistan hosted 5 million refugees?"

Surprisingly, a Pakistani delegate said that Islamabad must recognise that India as a regional power has a role to play in Afghanistan. Their respective agendas must be discussed to allay each other's concerns. Ideally they should undertake joint projects in sectors like IT, communication, power, health, etc. Such was the mixed picture on cooperation in Afghanistan.

The discussion on Balochistan was the first of its kind, thanks to its mention in the Sharm el-Sheikh joint statement. The Baloch presenter painted an explosive situation of the province and how the richest and largest region was impoverished due to wrong policies and misgovernance of Islamabad. Another Bangladesh, he warned, was in the offing. Unsubstantiated allegations about India's involvement were listed which included training of 600 Baloch by R&AW inside Afghanistan.

That Kashmir was no longer the core issue was the breaking news. Terrorism, poverty, illiteracy, etc, were priority concerns. Pakistanis may have disowned Gen Pervez Musharraf but in India he is credited with the four-point Kashmir formula which has secured broad consensus in Jammu & Kashmir as well as in the rest of India.

For the time being, India is no more Enemy Number One. Islamabad has come around to allowing simultaneous release of Indian movies in Pakistan but is not prepared to accept India's offer to switch its troops from east to west to fight the Taliban to the finish with the assurance of no harm from India. How can we trust India after what it did in creating the Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan, asked the Pakistanis. The lesson from Singapore was: Keep talking but also open the official line quickly.

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            THE PIONEER

COLUMN

HINDI, BENGALI COMPATIBLE

PRIYADARSI DUTTA

A story is told of how when the Ramayan-recitalists of Banaras were hounding Sant Tulsidas for 'plebianising' the Sanskrit epic into Awadhi, a sagely verdict turned the tide in his favour. Madhusudan Saraswati, next only to the Shankaracharya and Swami Vidyaranya as the expounder of Advaitavada (monist non-dualism) described Tulsidas as a grove of holy basil whose poetic leaves are kissed by a bee called Lord Ram. Madhusudan Saraswati, who famously raised the Naga Sanyasi militia to protect Hindus, was a Bengali from Barisal district. He knew Krittibas Ojha had transliterated Ramayan into Bengali as early as 14th century. Madhusudan Saraswati's intervention helped Tulsidas's Ramcharitmanas become a popular scripture with the Hindi-speaking masses.

The ties between Hindi and Bengali run deeper than Hindi's critics like Kajol Chatterjee imagine. The easiest way to verify this would be to visit the 'Hindi fiction' shelf in a public library. There could be complete shelves of Bankimchandra Chattopadhyay, Saratchandra Chattopadhyay, Bibhuti Bhusan Bandopadhyay, Tarashankar Bandyopadhyay, Ashapurna Devi, Bimal Mitra, Shankar, Mahasweta Devi's novels rendered into Hindi. Translations into Hindi from other Indian languages pale in comparison. Comparative studies of Hindi and Bengali novelists crop up in PhD lists of universities frequently.

The holy cities of Hindi region, Hardwar, Mathura, Vrindavan, Banaras, Allahabad, etc, have always loomed large on the Bengali mind. Bengalis have lived in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand for generations without any discrimination. Swami Vivekananda first set up his headquarters at Mayawati Ashram, Almora. The first woman Chief Minister to be elected by any State of India was a Bengali — Sucheta Kripalani neé Majumdar of Uttar Pradesh (1963-1967). In 1957, Lucknow elected Pulin Banerjee of the Congress, a Bengali, over Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Bengalis played a leading role in the establishment of Lucknow University. Atul Prasad Sen, the well-known Bengali poet, was a leading advocate of the city. Famous economist and historian brothers Radha Kamal and Radha Kumud Mukherjee were professors in Lucknow University. Khandwa-born Kishore Kumar struck gold in the Hindi film industry whereas the Bengali music industry was less than fair to him.

Thus, it is hoped Bengalis will take a more welcoming view of Hindi.

 

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THE PIONEER

COLUMN

TERROR PLOT UNRAVELS

WITH THE FBI CHARGING DAVID COLEMAN HEADLEY ALIAS DAOOD GILANI WITH BEING PART OF THE 26/11 CONSPIRACY, AND NAMING A MAJOR OF THE PAKISTANI ARMY AS THE LINK BETWEEN THE ISI AND TERRORISTS, A PICTURE IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE OF PAKISTAN-SPONSORED GLOBAL JIHAD INC

SHASHI SHEKHAR

After weeks of speculation and inspired leaks to the media we have finally been told the contents of sealed envelopes filed with a United States court in the Headley-Rana Chicago conspiracy case. David Coleman Headley's direct role in the conspiracy underlying the November 26, 2008 attacks on Mumbai is now authoritatively established.

The specific charges against Headley in connection with the Mumbai conspiracy include making five extended trips to the city — in September 2006, February and September 2007, and April and July 2008 — and each time taking pictures and making videotapes of various targets, including those attacked in November 2008. More specifically, it is interesting to note the FBI says Headley discussed potential landing sites for a team of attackers who would arrive by sea in Mumbai, and he was instructed to take boat trips in and around the Mumbai harbour and take surveillance video, which he did during his visit to India starting in April 2008.

What is even more interesting in the fresh public revelations in the Headley case is the identity of Headley's alleged Pakistan-based controller and a key go-between with Al Qaeda-affiliated 313 Brigade leader Ilyas Kashmiri. Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed (Abdur Rehman), who is described as a retired Major in the Pakistani Army, was also charged in the larger Chicago conspiracy case in connection with the planned attack on a Danish newspaper's office. The FBI communication, however, makes no mention of any direct role of Abdur Rehman in the Mumbai conspiracy.

While we await more details to surface in the days to come following the visit by the FBI team to New Delhi, it is interesting to overlay the timeline of Headley's activities in India with attacks of mass terror in India.

The wave of mass terror attacks staring 2005 and culminating with the 26/11 Mumbai attacks has an interesting overlap with what we have learned of Headley's initiation into terror activities directed against India.

Late November 2005 saw the first of deadly serial bomb blasts in New Delhi, the same period was also when Headley, we are told, was made aware of his surveillance role to be played in India. It maybe of significance to note that while the Indian Mujahideen e-mails ascribed responsibility of all serial blast attacks to its still elusive mastermind Guru al-Hindi, the e-mails were careful to exclude the November 2005 blasts in Delhi while starting the chronology from the 2006 Varanasi blasts.

Back in 2005 responsibility for the Delhi blasts was attributed to Lashkar's Al Qama. Recent revelations in the Headley case, yet to be confirmed by the FBI, indicate Al Qama is in fact the same person as Headley's Lashkar controller identified as 'Lashkar Individual A' in the Chicago chargesheet and also known as Sajid Mir. The Chicago conspiracy sheet indicated an interesting inter-jihadi factional dynamic between Headley's other controller who we now know to be Abdur Rehman and the Lashkar's Sajid Mir (Al Qama) with Abdur Rehman and Headley describing the Lashkar as having "rotten guts". This specific conversation, according to the FBI chargesheet, is reported to have taken place in the aftermath of reports of Ilyas Kashmiri's death in a drone strike when Abdur Rehman and Headley debated the implications of his death and the fate of planned terror strikes.

This inter-jihadi factional dynamic alluded to by Abdur Rehman and Headley may perhaps explain why the Delhi blasts of 2005 were attributed to Lashkar's Al Qama while all subsequent blasts were almost always described as having a Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami connection starting specifically with the 2006 Varanasi blasts with the exception of 7/11 which is attributed to Azam Cheema.

If Abdur Rehman indeed was the Pakistan-based controller of HuJI activities, including Bangladesh-based modules, it raises an interesting series of questions about his role in all of the attacks of mass terror in India with a HuJI link.

While the Varanasi blasts and subsequent Hyderabad blasts were blamed on HuJI's India-based lieutenants like Shahid Bilal hardly anything has been uncovered on the next layer of command within HuJI based in either Pakistan or Bangladesh. Similarly the Indian Mujahideen chain of command as well terminates with the Indian origin Amir Raza Khan with no clarity on his immediate Pakistan-based handler.

A closer examination of Amir Raza Khan's antecedents is warranted to perhaps establish Abdur Rehman's role if any in the HuJI inspired attacks in India.

It is interesting to note that the chargesheet in the 2001 HuJI conspiracy to kidnap Sachin Tendulkar and to target former President Abdul Kalam named Amir Raza Khan's brother. In addition to Asif Raza Khan the chargesheet named two other Pakistan-based HuJI commanders Omar Sheikh and Azam Cheema. Azam Cheema's name surfaces again in the interrogation of another associate of Amir Raza Khan and his brother. In May of 2003 the Indian Express in Kolkata revealed details of Aftab Ansari's interrogation. Ansari a Dubai-based underworld fugitive responsible for the attack on American Consulate in Kolkata, who was serving time in India, mentions that Amir Raza Khan was working with Azam Cheema in addition to Hashim Akhtar and Tahir, both based in Islamabad. Tahir is also blamed as the reason for Azam Cheema's estrangement from Lashkar.

The most extensive insights into the HuJI network come from interrogations of Babu Bhai a key accused in the 2006 Varanasi blasts languishing in a jail in Uttar Pradesh. Babu Bhai's revelations made public in May 2008 name an Abdur Rehman as the key HuJI recruiter and handler. While Indian investigators connect the dots in the Headley case they must dig deeper into Abdur Rehman as well to determine his role if any in previous attacks of mass terror attributed to HuJI.

The writer tracks terrorism in South Asia.

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

MIND OF A JIHADI

IT WORKS IN THE MOST DEVIOUS MANNER

B RAMAN

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has filed before a Federal court in Chicago a Criminal Information Report charging David Coleman Headley, previously known as Daood Gilani, a US national of Pakistani origin, on 12 counts. Six of these counts related to participating in a conspiracy to bomb public places in India, murder and maim persons in India and Denmark, providing material support to foreign terrorist plots and the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba. The remaining six counts related to participating in a conspiracy to aid and abet the murder of US citizens in India. This refers to the massacre of six US nationals by the LeT in Mumbai during the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

It is learnt that it has been called a Criminal Information Report and not yet an indictment because the charges relating to India are largely based on voluntary admissions made by him during his interrogation after he was arrested by the FBI on October 3 on a charge of conspiring with Pakistan-based elements to carry out a terrorist attack in Copenhagen against a Danish journal which had published caricatures of Prophet Mohammad in 2005. The FBI had originally filed a criminal affidavit giving details of evidence collected on the basis of technical intelligence which justified his arrest and interrogation. Subsequently, they submitted to the court in a sealed cover information obtained during his initial interrogation to justify his continued custody. This sealed cover has now been opened and its contents incorporated in the CIR.

The FBI has described the investigation against Headley as still active. A formal indictment would follow after the investigations into his disclosures in India and Pakistan. The National Investigation Agency has already started an investigation into his activities in India during his periodic visits, but no arrests would appear to have been made as yet during this investigation. Rahul Bhatt, an aspiring actor and son of filmmaker Mahesh Bhatt, who was the only Indian whose name had figured in the e-mails exchanged by Headley with his Pakistani handlers, could be a material witness during the investigation and prosecution in the US as well as India. The CIR against Headley, however, does not refer to Rahul.

The FBI has also filed a separate CIR on two counts in the same court on December 7, against Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, a Pakistani citizen based in Pakistan. The two counts relate to conspiring to attack the Danish newspaper and its employees. The CIR against the retired Pakistani Major does not refer to the 26/11 attacks. In the affidavit filed earlier by the FBI against Headley, there were references to two handlers of Headley in Pakistan — a person referred to as 'Individual A' and an LeT office-bearer referred to as 'LeT member A'. Headley was allegedly in touch with 'Individual A' in connection with the Copenhagen conspiracy and with 'LeT member A' in connection with the Indian and Copenhagen conspiracies. 'Individual A' appeared in the earlier affidavit as an associate of Ilyas Kashmiri of the 313 Brigade. He had introduced Headley to Ilyas Kashmiri and was acting as a cut-out between the two.

The earlier affidavits had not identified 'Individual A' and the 'LeT member A'. The CIR filed on December 7 has identified 'Individual A' as Major (retd) Abdur Rehman. While the report does not say anything about the arrest of the Major, media reports have said that he has been arrested by the Pakistani authorities at the request of the FBI. For reasons which are not clear, no CIR has been filed against Ilyas, who seemed to have initiated the conspiracy relating to Copenhagen. The FBI has not yet named the LeT handler of Headley called 'LeT member A'.

The details of Headley's participation in the 26/11 related conspiracy are as follows:

2005: The LeT, of which he had become a member, asked him to "travel to India to perform surveillance."

February 2006: He changed his name from his original "Daood Gilani" in order to "present himself in India as an American who was neither Muslim nor Pakistani."

June 2006: Obtained permission from friend and businessman, Tahawwur Hussain Rana, to open an ostensible consultancy franchise in India. Rana is a Canadian national of Pakistani origin living in Chicago, who was running an immigration consultancy service.

September 2006: Visited India for several weeks, then Pakistan.

February 2007: Visited India for several weeks, then Pakistan.

September 2007: Visited India for several weeks, then Pakistan.

April 2008: Visited India for several week, making a surveillance video as he took a boat ride through the Mumbai harbour.

July 2008: Visited India for several weeks, then Pakistan.

The FBI's CIR does not refer to any Indian visit by Headley in November, 2008. There is also no reference to any role of his in connection with the July 2006 explosions in some suburban trains of Mumbai.

The second conspiracy for which Headley has been charged relates to the planned terrorist attack in Copenhagen for which he had visited the city earlier this year on behalf of Ilyas Kashmiri and Maj Abdur Rehman. It is known that Ilyas heads the so-called 313 Brigade based in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas. Maj Abdur Rehman also probably belonged to the 313 Brigade. The LeT and the 313 Brigade were aware of each other's conspiracies relating to India and Denmark.

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

Silly to deny climate change

A Government report saying the Himalayan ice cover isn't shrinking is simply denying the reality of global warming. This is not only myopic but will prove disastrous for India

Anuradha Dutt

Some days back, heavy unseasonal rains wrecked havoc in north Karnataka. There were over 200 casualties, and numerous houses were washed away. Professor TV Ramachandra of Centre for Ecological Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, ascribed the disaster to the fact of climate change, warning that "such freak conditions are going to become frequent". Karnataka is suffering the consequences of climate change in other ways as well. For instance, streams in the Western Ghats, which were earlier perennial, have become seasonal. Deforestation and change in land use adversely affect ecology, resulting in alarming depletion in rainfall.

Underlining the reality of climate change, and global warming, in particular, the Indian Space Research Organisation has cited satellite imagery that shows a 1.5-km retreat of the Gangotri glacier over the past three decades. It is a timely disclosure, against the backdrop of the 193-countries summit on climate change, currently being held at Copenhagen. While ISRO is being cautious about blaming the retreat of Himalayan glaciers on global warming, the fact remains that its own studies confirm that some of them have indeed melted in the past two decades. This is of utmost importance, given that a month ago, Minister of State for Environment and Forests Jairam Ramesh released a Government report, titled Himalayan Glaciers: A state-of-art review of glacial studies, glacial retreat and climate change. The study avers absence of evidence to support the claim that climate change has caused 'abnormal' shrinking of Himalayan glaciers. By associating with the report, even if he did not endorse it, the Minister gave credence to it. It was subsequently debunked by some renowned experts.

Mr RK Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations environmental agency, dismissed the report on the grounds that it had few "scientific citations". Contrary to satellite images, which show the Gangotri glacier receding, the report claimed that the glacier, the main source of the Ganga, was now 'practically at a standstill'. Worse, Mr Ramesh's assertion that he was ready to take on "the doomsday scenarios of Al Gore and the IPCC" fuelled the ire of experts, who felt that denying the reality of global warming was not only myopic but would prove disastrous for India. Mr Pachauri had summed it up as "climate hange deniers and schoolboy science".

A more sinister trend in the developed First World has manifested as a cynical questioning of the very premise of climate change and global warming, with sections of the media also joining the debate. The controversy has gathered momentum in the wake of an alleged break-in at a premier climate research institute, with e-mail accounts being hacked and files stolen. Data reportedly available via the break-in is sought to be deployed by those who oppose cuts in greenhouse gas emissions as evidence that climate change warnings are not rooted in facts. A New York Times report — 'Leaked e-mails give naysayers ammo' — mirrors the scepticism: "In recent days, an array of scientists and policymakers have said that nothing so far disclosed — the correspondence and documents include references by prominent climate scientists to deleting potentially embarrassing e-mail messages, keeping papers by competing scientists from publication and making adjustments in research data — undercuts decades of peer-reviewed science.

Yet the intensity of the response highlights that scepticism about global warming persists, even as many experts thought the battle over the reality of human-driven climate change was finally behind them. On dozens of websites and blogs, sceptics and foes of greenhouse gas restrictions take daily aim at the scientific arguments for human-driven climate change. The stolen material was quickly seized upon for the questions it raised about the accessibility of data to outsiders and whether some data had been manipulated".

However, the timing of the break-in, just before the Copenhagen summit, suggests that there is more to it than meets the eye. Some detect a plan by vested interests to derail negotiations on climate change and a new global accord to curb emissions. For, if binding cuts in emission can be enforced on the developed and developing countries, indiscriminate industrial growth will be curtailed since this is considered by climate change experts to be one of the primary causes of global warming. And such curbs will certainly be an extremely unwelcome prospect for uninhibited advocates of incessant consumption and free markets. Opposed to them are those who traverse the sensible course of sustainable development: That mankind should use as much of the earth's resources as are within its capacity for self- renewal.

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

CURBING USE OF PLASTIC BAGS, CREATING JOBS

A GUJARAT MUNICIPALITY'S INITIATIVE TO REPLACE PLASTIC BAGS WITH PAPER BAGS HELPS WOMEN EARN MONEY, WRITES SANJAY DAVE

While the crucial issue of environment and the effects of global warming will continue to dominate national and international debates for long, the Siddhpur municipality in Ahmedabad paved the way to curb the use of plastic bags in the city.

Despite a Government restriction on production and use of plastic bags of less than 20 micron thickness, they are being blatantly manufactured and used. This shows how far we can stray from the core concept of preserving our environment by flouting rules which actually will benefit not only us but the entire ecosystem.

Sometimes it requires a voice from within to remind us, not only of the violation of the ban but the dangers of polluting our environment. This voice has come from the Siddhpur municipality which has in a sense gone beyond its routine duties to effect this change.

The municipal staff formed three groups for this and came to the conclusion that these poly bags found their way into town through people coming from outside.

This was followed by a crackdown. The teams fanned out in the area, confiscating polybags and sending them for recycling. Those found guilty of using them were reprimanded. The campaign had the desired effect not only on the users but those who manufactured and sold plastic bags.

However, this was only a battle won in the long war the municipality had declared on plastic bags and it kept up the heat. Sure the usage of plastic bags had virtually stopped. The challenge was now to provide a viable option so that inadvertently things do not slip back into the old practice. Officials in the team hit upon an innovative idea, one that would entail not only an immediate solution but a long-term one and would create awareness about the issue amongst the local community bringing an attitudinal change. Forty-seen sakhi mandals or women's group had been formed as part of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. This was the perfect network the municipality needed to propose the usage of paper bags in place of plastic ones.

Rather than merely deflect their message through the existing functionaries of these sakhi mandals, the municipality went a step further to select and train a group exclusively for this. Fifty women living below the poverty line were identified to make paper bags. They were put through training and later they formed a group. To their great joy, members of this pioneering group started saving Rs 100 each month.

This was a good beginning but not enough. It was important to set a high standard of quality for these bags to really become a part of the market and people's consumption patterns in the long run. The municipality conducted an extensive survey of the business community and documented the expectations of quality, design, choice of material, thickness and size. In all the idea was to cater to what the customer would want rather than imposing a uniform model devised by the officials without 'market research'.

It is indeed a mature market-sense and purely professional way of bringing about social change that has marked the progress of this initiative. The production of paper bags was not adhoc but based on the sound findings of this survey. The newly formed groups were literally partners in progress. When it came to buying raw materials for paper bags and other activities, they showed a high level of enthusiasm and participation. The idea of paper bags had taken roots and had caught the imagination of those making them. And they were involved in all stages of production.

The women worked out the cost of raw material, making charges and profit before finalising the selling price of the bags. Based on this calculation, the cost of paper bags was fixed at Rs 54 per kg. Interestingly, the cost of plastic bags in the market is Rs 120 per kg. At once the dual benefit became clear dispelling the common notion that for environmental protection, only high-cost technologies can work. Not to mention, the generation of employment for women living below the poverty line.

At present, groups make paper bags for provision stores to hold products weighing between 250 gm and 2 kg. These groups earn Rs 15 a kg as labour charges. They make between two to eight kg of bags in a day. Thus their earnings are anything between Rs 30 and Rs 120 a day sitting at their homes. They are now contributing to their family income, their sense of economic worth and to the larger cause of the environment.

There is yet another advantage and indicates the ripple effect of this path-breaking initiative. Plastic bags now do not form part of the garbage collected from the town and as a result the task of garbage disposal has become easy. This effort by a tiny band of municipality officials has not remained confined to the local context. Their efforts and the subsequent impact are being documented by the City Managers' Association, Gujarat. Inspired by the municipality's efforts, other local organisations are also taking up this task of making paper bags. One small step has set the ball rolling!

 

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MAIL TODAY

EDITORIAL

A CASUAL APPROACH TO THE BABRI DEBATE

 

IT IS no secret that the quality of parliamentary debate in India has been gradually declining over the years. The one on Monday over the Justice Liberhan Commission report probing the Babri Masjid demolition in Ayodhya in 1992 was perhaps a clinching piece of evidence of this.

 

The Congress fielded Jagadambika Pal, a former member of the Loktantrik Congress who broke ranks and joined the Congress, to be its first speaker in the debate. This move made it clear that none in the government had read the Liberhan Commission report in detail. Mr Pal was named in the report as one of the members of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and if anyone had read the report even cursorily, the MP from Domariyaganj would not have featured in the debate.

 

It was only natural that the BJP — which, incidentally, had done its homework better — grabbed at the opportunity to heckle him and therefore shame the Congress. Of course, party president Rajnath Singh did do his bit with a sterling performance defending the demolition that was aimed at warming the cockles of the RSS's heart.

 

The Babri Masjid demolition may be a blot on the BJP and indeed the extended Sangh Parivar, but to field Mr Pal in such an important and controversial debate was an error of enormous proportions. It also proved beyond doubt that the Congress takes the issue of communalism quite casually.

 

Sad really, because it is the Congress which trumpets its secular credentials at possible forums. To make a fundamental mistake such as this, in full view of the nation, in the august House is simply unpardonable.

 

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MAIL TODAY

OUR RUSSIAN SHIELD

 

INDIA'S nuclear pact with Russia tells us a great deal about the continuing importance of the relationship which was forged in the era when the Soviet Union existed.

 

That relationship has been based on an identity of geopolitical interests which continue to have relevance to this day.

 

There are really no major issues, barring arguably the price of oil, on which India and Russia have differing interests.

 

Otherwise, the Soviet Union and now Russia continue to be a major pillar on which India's ability to deal with the world rests. It provides India a shield in the United Nations Security Council, and it aids India to have a military profile that it could not have had on its own. The Russians have bent rules to aid India's nuclear submarine and missile projects, besides being friends in need in providing India weapons and equipment that would be denied by most western suppliers.

 

In the case of the Indo- Russian nuclear deal, the guarantee of uninterrupted fuel supplies and a promise of enrichment and reprocessing technologies makes Russia an automatic lead partner in India's ambitious plans to use nuclear power as a source of clean energy. This is a relationship in which India needs to invest a little more.

 

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MAIL TODAY

REPLACE HIM

 

THE arbitrary manner in which Suresh Kalmadi, the chairman of the Commonwealth Games Organising Committee ( OC), functions is evident from his decision to ' sack' Vijay Goel, BJP leader and former Sports Minister, from the body. Mr Goel may have many shortcomings as a politician but that he has organisational skills and experience that the OC could do with is not in doubt. In any case, he has every right to raise issues about the completion of Games projects on time and the accountability on funds being spent for the purpose.

 

After all, these issues have also been raised by the Commonwealth Games Federation and the Union government led by the party to which Mr Kalmadi belongs.

 

But the OC has gone to the extent of filing a petition in the high court to avoid making its accounts public, saying it is an autonomous body — in complete disregard of the fact that the hundreds of crores that are and will be spent on the Games are coming from the national coffers.

 

Since Mr Kalmadi does not realise that the OC is not his fiefdom and the Games are not being organised by the Congress Party, it's best that he is replaced immediately by someone more efficient, inclined to transparency and with a temperament that fosters cooperative endeavour.

 

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MAIL TODAY

COLUMN

SHEER BRAVERY CANNOT WIN YOU A WAR

BY PUSHPENDRA SINGH

 

FOUR CENTURIES ago, Rana Sanga and the Rajput confederacy faced Babur at Khanwa, 60 km from Agra. Despite legendary heroism, extolled in ballads and folk-lore, the Rajputs were decisively defeated. Fast forward to 18th November 1962. C Company, 13 Kumaon faced Chinese human-waves at Rezang-La in Ladakh. Out-gunned and greatly outnumbered, the company fought last-man-last round and perished in a saga of rare valour.

 

Other than defeat, what is common in these two epic battles? Both exemplify the Indian warrior's unparalleled valour and limitless capacity for sacrifice. Both also highlight our continuing infirmity in higher defence management. The Rajputs failed to modernise and the Rana's war-elephants were stampeded by Babur's artillery. Then they were enveloped and routed by the Mughal tulughma.

 

However, there is one notable difference between then and now: Rana Sangha and allied rulers personally led their men and many embraced veer-gati. In 1962 the Indian army was pushed into battle by 'leaders' in air-conditioned offices, totally oblivious of ground realities. The valiant Kumaonis braved the Ladakhi winter in summer uniforms and PT shoes; then faced Chinese human-wave assaults with bolt-action rifles, which often jammed and vintage ammunition misfired. Nevertheless, the 120-odd heroes accounted for over 500 Chinese before their ammunition and life-blood ran out.

 

Neglect

 

Four decades later, denial of surveillance equipment for a quarter- century by apathetic babus helped the Pakistanis to surreptitiously intrude across the LoC in the Kargil sector.

 

The ensuing war again witnessed most conspicuous valour, which ultimately negated Pak's napak designs. But 700 gallant sons were martyred to pay for their ' leaders' neglect of defence preparedness.

 

This author is witness to one such peremptory and callous dispensation, which literally made the Army blind. Illuminating shells for the indigenous Field Gun had been ' under development' by DRDO since 1970s and thus faced an import ban. In 1996, with total void in night illumination, we sought to import just one percent of our requirement to enable artillery night firing and observation.

 

But MoD vetoed the proposal, ' since DRDO success was imminent' — as it had been for twenty dark years. It was brought out that, taken in conjunction with the gap in surveillance and night vision equipment, the lack of these shells would keep the Army totally blind. But they remained unmoved.

 

Only small fry in the System, the Army officers nevertheless stated that MoD would be responsible for any border violation due to the lack of night- vision equipment. But of course, three years down the line, this proved a worthless scrap of paper. The hamstrung commander on- thespot got the sack.

 

Today, Babur's self- proclaimed legatees are conspiring with the Dragon to pose a collusive threat.

 

Both launched rhetorical assaults on our borders. In September, Pakistan accorded quasi provincial status to Gilgit- Baltistan.

 

Post- 1948 this region had been illegally separated from POK, designated Northern Areas and federally administered by Rawalpindi. Now it has been given its own Assembly and appellate court, alienating its link with Jammu & Kashmir. China blocked Asian Development Bank aid for Arunachal Pradesh based projects and even protested our PM's visit to the State. Reflecting our military inadequacy through decades of neglect, our response has been at pains to avoid causing offence, while blaming media for its ' hype'. In 2004 UPA- I cancelled all major defence deals then at the finalisation stage and blacklisted some firms for alleged kickbacks.

 

With this they scored multiple goals against NDA, but these were actually a hat- trick of self- goals; shooting India's defence preparedness in the foot! A quarter- century back, the 155mm Bofors howitzer was a key acquisition, which showed off its battle- winning might during the Kargil conflict. The deal included technology transfer for indigenous manufacture and for future upgrades. The political storm over alleged kickbacks froze all defence modernisation for two decades. The NDA governmet finally took courage and cleared the import of modern howitzer systems. These were among those cancelled by UPA- I; negating thirty years' efforts to modernise the artillery. A recent newspaper report suggests that the leading firms may yet again be ruled out, virtually aborting the renewed proposal.

 

Weaknesses

 

The stark disparity between our once- dominant Navy and the Chinese Navy was highlighted in the CAG Report to Lok Sabha, Oct 2008. Our submarine fleet is at only two- thirds of the 1985 Plan and serviceability of even these is down to half — yet another victim of political soccer with national defence; this time the HDW submarine contract was cancelled.

 

Like the Bofors deal, this too included technologytransfer for indigenous manufacture. The foreclosures perpetuated foreignsource dependence and crippled defence capability.

 

Two double self- goals! Further, against the Navy's minimum strategic requirement for three- carriers, it is down to one — the 50- year old INS Viraat, which has had its life- span repeatedly extended. With the induction of the Gorshkov delayed by at least five years, and the recently overhauled Viraat running out of Sea Harriers our blue water capacity is tenuous.

 

The Air Force is in deeper trouble with a threedecade wait to replace the ageing Mig fighters, while DRDO struggles with the LCA. From the sanctioned 45 squadrons, it will be down to about 29 before the first aircraft of the 126- fighter deal is delivered.

 

Similarly, its transport fleet is only two- thirds of the requirement and its 32- years ancient airdefence missiles have outlived even their overextended service life.

 

The weakness in the strategic forces is extremely distressing. It is surprising that we can circle the moon but still lack China- capable missiles. On its 60th anniversary, China proudly displayed ultramodern, 8000 km, UScapable missiles Dongfeng- 41 ( East- Wind), ICBM and Ju- lang- 2 ( tsunami) SLBM. In April, China had show- cased its superpower Navy at Qingdao.

 

The centre- piece was the second- generation nuclear submarine equipped with Ju- lang- 2 SLBMs. We have made some progress in launching the hull of our nuclear submarine which will take two more years to fit with N- power pack etc. Then sea trials and, five years hence, we will hopefully have our 1st generation Nsubmarine — if SLBMdevelopment keeps pace.

 

Status

However, the most worrisome is the premeditated, deliberate downgrading of the status and morale of the Defence Forces — particularly after the 6th Pay Commission. It is also galling to see completely different standards applied to martyrs by the Ministries of Home and External Affairs one hand, and the Armed Forces. When questioned, one bureaucrat retorted, " But they're paid to die, aren't they?" In that case, the legitimate question is, " Is babustan paid to kill our jawans by equipping them with inferior weapons?" Even as the Chinese up their belligerent rhetoric, boldly violate our borders and stoke internal insurrections, Pakistan appears to be slowly imploding — nukes and all. Thus a grave security situation is brewing, which may boil over sooner than we think. Will the babu- neta establishment continue playing soccer with India's defence preparedness while the flower of our youth is once again martyred by their games and impudent sloth?

 

The writer is a retired major- general

 

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MAIL TODAY

DECCAN BUZZ

A SRINIVASA RAO

 

STUDENTS HOLD REINS OF STIR FOR TELANGANA

THE upsurge in the Telangana movement in the last 10 days has charged up the political atmosphere in Andhra Pradesh enough for the heat to be felt by the Congress high command in New Delhi.

 

Till recently, political analysts had virtually written off the Telangana Rashtra Samithi — which has been spearheading the agitation for the last eight years — following its debacle in the April general elections. TRS president K Chandrasekhara Rao was so afraid of facing an electoral battle that he did not field a single candidate in the just concluded Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections.

 

So, when the TRS president announced that he would launch a fast- unto- death at Siddipet in Medak district from November 29, nobody took him seriously.

 

However, as the deadline for the fast approached, KCR became aggressive in his talk and approach, instigating the people to take up a violent agitation on the lines of the Gujjars of Rajasthan. Following intelligence inputs that the TRS would give a violent spin to the movement, the government alerted the police machinery and decided to nip the agitation in the bud.

 

So when KCR launched his fast, the government immediately arrested him, filed a case of sedition against him and sent him to Khammam jail. The TRS president was obviously expecting such a development as his sole intention was to create a favourable political atmosphere for the TRS. As he had anticipated, his arrest triggered violence all over Telangana.

 

Osmania University, the nerve centre of the 1969 Telangana movement, flared up once again with students taking to streets and resorting to demonstrations and dharnas. The police used brutal force to crush the agitation resulting in serious injuries to several students. One student immolated himself, demanding a separate Telangana state and protesting KCR's arrest.

 

At this point, the TRS president decided to call off his strike — within 36 hours of its launch — on the pretext that the agitation was turning violent. At Khammam hospital, KCR allowed the doctors to administer him saline and offer him fruit juice to end the fast. The police authorities cleverly recorded the entire sequence of events leading to the end of KCR's fast and released it to the media.

 

This infuriated the students at various universities and colleges across the Telangana region.

 

Various caste organisations including those of washermen, barbers and cobblers declared non- cooperation for Andhra people. The government announced a shutdown of colleges and hostels for 15 days, hoping that the movement would fizzle out if the students returned to their homes. But that did not happen.

 

The agitation turned further violent on November 6 and 7, when a Telangana shutdown had been called. Thousands of students and TRS activists went on the rampage damaging buses and properties belonging to Andhra businessmen, including malls, shopping centres and theatres.

 

Meanwhile, the condition of KCR, who was shifted to Hyderabad, deteriorated and he was put on saline and support therapy.

 

That led to a steady stream of politicians calling on KCR and expressing their solidarity with the Telangana cause. The attempts of the Rosaiah government to prevail upon KCR to call off his fast did not yield any result.

 

The hijacking of the movement by the students has left him with no option but to continue the fast in order to survive politically.

 

Finally on Monday, the Telangana thunder had its echo in New Delhi. AICC president Sonia Gandhi called for a meeting of the core committee to discuss the Telangana issue. She asked Rosaiah to seek the opinion of all political parties and send it to the UPA government.

 

Going by the indications, there is likely to be a positive development on the formation of a separate Telangana state.

 

CHIRU BLAMES IT ALL ON BACK- STABBING BY FRIENDS

 

INSTANCES OF " back- stabbing" have been very much a part of Andhra Pradesh politics.

 

Former chief minister and Telugu Desam Party founder N T Rama Rao experienced it twice: first from Nadendla Bhaskara Rao, his " co- pilot" in the party, who had dethroned him in August 1984; and then from his own son- in- law N Chandrababu Naidu, exactly 11 years later.

 

Now, it is the turn of megastar Chiranjeevi, who founded the Praja Rajyam Party with hopes of doing an NTR in the 2009 elections. Unfortunately, he had to end up with just 18 assembly seats in the 294- member assembly. In the subsequent byelection to the Tekkali assembly seat, his candidate lost his deposit and in the most recent Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections, his party managed to win only a single corporator seat with a very narrow margin, while all the other 63 candidates lost miserably.

 

As a result, one leader after the other has been deserting Chiranjeevi, the latest ones being former union minister Krishnam Raju, former MP Ch Harirama Jogaiah and Dalit intellectual Katti Padma Rao.

 

Another former union minister P Upendra was also contemplating quitting the PRP, but he suddenly passed away.

 

No wonder, Chiranjeevi is now crying foul, stating that all those who had supported him in the launch of the PRP, had stabbed him in the back by deserting him at critical moments. Though he is putting up a brave front, it is evident that the PRP president is fast losing his confidence.

 

One is inclined to pity rather than blame him for the sorry state of affairs in the PRP!

 

THE OTHER day, Anand Mahindra, vicechairman and CEO of Mahindra and Mahindra, gave an inspiring speech at the 16th World Editors' Forum meeting held in Hyderabad, which was attended by nearly 1,000 delegates from across the globe.

 

Anand narrated interesting anecdotes to prove how India had become a potential leader in education and industrial sectors over the years. When he was a student of Lawrence School, Ooty in 1971, the school principal used to entrust the task of setting question papers to a few renowned teachers in London.

 

" Every year, he used to get question papers shipped from London to India in an iron safe; and after we wrote the examinations, he used to religiously send the answer sheets back to London for evaluation. He was of the view that Indian school teachers were just incapable of setting question papers and evaluating the answers," he recalled.

 

After explaining how India had made rapid strides in various fields in the last two decades, Anand ended his speech with another anecdote.

 

" Recently, I came to know that some academic institutions of London like AQA send the answer sheets of their students to India for evaluation," he concluded, amidst thunderous applause.

 

IF THE Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams has its way, a Muslim will compose tunes and sing " keerthans" for Lord Venkateshwara soon! The TTD is contemplating approaching Oscar- winner A R Rahman to sing the traditional keerthans of 14th century Telugu poet- composer Tallapaka Annamacharya, better known as Annamayya, in praise of Lord Venkateshwara of Tirumala. If Rahman agrees, it will be for the first time that the country's richest temple engages the services of a non- classical Muslim musician for singing paeans to a Hindu god.

 

The proposal was mooted recently by TTD trust board chairman D K Audikesavulu Naidu. The TTD authorities would obviously want to consult Hindu saints and religious functionaries before approaching Rahman, as it is a sensitive issue.

 

It was only recently that Lata Mangeshkar sang Annamayya's keerthans . Similarly, renowned classical and playback singer Jesudas, though being a Christian, has sung several songs in praise of Lord Venkateshwara.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

COMMENT

MOSCOW MOVES

 

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been a busy man. Coming on the heels of his US visit, his trip to Russia has paid dividends with a raft of initiatives aimed at revitalising ties between New Delhi and Moscow. Foremost is the nuclear agreement signed between the two countries. In going beyond the terms of India's deal with the US and guaranteeing unrestricted nuclear cooperation and nuclear fuel supply regardless of G8 resolutions and other considerations, Russia has essentially enabled India to start positioning its civilian nuclear sector as a buyer's market.

With France and Canada having inked nuclear agreements with India as well, there is both incentive and now urgency for companies in those countries and the US to lobby their governments for ensuring smooth nuclear trade with India. This can only be to New Delhi's benefit. Likewise, the agreement on joint nuclear research and development is a significant step forward. Interestingly, US companies too are looking at India as a cost-effective manufacturing base for several components of nuclear power plants. Since such plants are zero-emission demand for them is slated to go up by leaps and bounds globally. Multiple benefits would flow to India if it could position itself as an essential part of the global supply chain for nuclear power plant manufacture, including the growing difficulty of isolating it internationally on the nuclear issue.

An area in which the India-Russia relationship has so far been severely lacking is trade. Russia features nowhere on the list of India's top trade partners. The push to hit the $20 billion mark for trade exchanges by 2015 is welcome in this regard. The potential for expansion - via both direct trade as well as investment - is substantial in a variety of spheres, from the traditional focus on defence to others like energy, the IT sector and the pharmaceutical industry.

There will be stumbling blocks, of course, as there are in relations between any two sovereign states. The Gorshkov deal has been one such for a long time. That issue has, hopefully, been resolved now, although such assurances have been given in the past as well. New Delhi must also take care to diversify and wean its armed forces from over-reliance on Russian equipment. But there is sufficient manoeuvrability in the New Delhi-Moscow relationship to allow for dealing with any irritants, as synergies between them are great. There's scope for intelligence-sharing on terror, and both have similar concerns on Afghanistan. Above all, now that Washington and Moscow are moving to repair their relationship, New Delhi is in the happy position of not having to choose between them, but leveraging ties with both to its advantage.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

COMMENT

DON'T SIT ON IT

 

The Telangana region in Andhra Pradesh is on the boil. Protests and strikes seeking a separate Telangana state have brought the region to a halt. At least 17 people are claimed to have committed suicide in support of the demand. The state assembly has been stalled by MLAs from the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). Their chief K Chandrasekhara Rao is on a hunger strike. It is time for the Centre and the state government to take a close look at the statehood demand and not wait for the situation to go out of control.

Almost all political parties support the case for Telangana. Even parties like the Telugu Desam that had opposed a division of Andhra Pradesh are on board now. The Congress claims that it is not opposed to a Telangana state. Yet the government has refused to take the necessary administrative measure to bring the issue to a closure. The previous UPA government, under pressure from TRS, appointed a committee under Pranab Mukherjee to study the demand. Nothing came out of the committee. After the TDP adopted a resolution in support of the state demand ahead of the assembly election, the Congress also spoke in favour of the Telangana state. But after winning the election, the Congress government has refused to take decisive action on the issue. Is the Congress trying to buy time and wait for the agitation to fizzle out? Such a strategy is risky and could backfire on the government and the party.

This newspaper has been supportive of smaller states whenever the demand has had a logical basis. Large states like Uttar Pradesh are too unwieldy as administrative units and deserve to be split into smaller units. Economic viability and geographical and cultural unity ought to be the determining factors in the constitution of new states. The first states' reorganisation commission chose linguistic communities as the basis for reconstituting the Indian state. The linguistic communities are now unravelling with economic factors coming to the forefront. Some of the large states, Andhra Pradesh included, have witnessed uneven development. The underdeveloped regions, expectedly, are unhappy. The latter's concerns are mostly genuine and need to be addressed.

The Centre must set up a new states' reorganisation commission to address separatist demands wherever they exist as well as to reconstitute large states like UP into manageable administrative units. If a political consensus already exists on the demand, as seems to be the case on Telangana, steps should be taken immediately to form the new state.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

TOP ARTICLE

THE ROAD AHEAD

DAVID MILIBAND9 DECEMBER

 

After a thorough review, President Barack Obama has determined that the deployment of an additional 30,000 troops is necessary to break the stalemate in Afghanistan. Despite the costs, he is clear that this is a war of necessity because the mountainous border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan is "the epicentre of the violent extremism practised by al-Qaida".

No one, least of all President Obama, would deny that the challenges we face in Afghanistan are enormous.

Decades of conflict have torn it apart and left it stricken by poverty. And the Taliban's resort to asymmetric warfare is extracting a heavy price in terms of innocent Afghan lives and on the international forces.

However, the resources that will come on stream in 2010 offer a genuine opportunity to break the back of the insurgency. The extra US troops will start to arrive early in the new year. The additional UK military commitment to Afghanistan represents an extra 1,500 soldiers in just over a year. We hope it will encourage others to step up their efforts. And then there is the Afghan National Army, which is set to go from 94,000 today to 1,34,000 by the end of next year.

To turn short-term military momentum into long-term success, we need to unite behind a clear political strategy. Central to that strategy must be the recognition that success in Afghanistan involves isolating the hardcore, ideologically driven, full-time Taliban fighters from the many Afghans who lend support to the Taliban simply to stay safe or earn money. To that end, the additional troops need to be used to protect the population and isolate the hardcore Taliban fighters in three ways.

First, we must help the Afghan government to win the trust of its people. The vast majority of Afghans say they do not want the Taliban back. But in the villages and valleys of rural Afghanistan, the government offers so little in terms of protection or basic services, and the risk of Taliban retribution is so great, that few are prepared actively to resist the insurgents.

To turn this round we need to convince ordinary Afghans that we - the international community - will stay until the legitimate Afghan authorities can provide security, justice and development. That was why the US president's focus on building the capacity of the security forces and government was significant. Getting effective provincial and district governors in place will be as pivotal to success in this war as extra troops. Because with the Taliban appointing shadow governors, and establishing courts that deliver quick - if very brutal - justice, the danger is not just that Hamid Karzai's administration is out-fought, but that it is out-governed.

Second, we need to help the Afghan government reintegrate those militants prepared to pursue their goals peacefully and live within the constitutional framework. By stepping up our presence and military operations, we increase the cost of sticking with the Taliban, and encourage ordinary Afghans to turn against them. We also need to support the Afghan government in offering those who renounce violence a route back into normal Afghan society. Any reintegration programme must be Afghan-led, but the international community can and must provide the funding.

Third, Afghanistan needs a new relationship with others in the region. For too long the country has been a geopolitical chessboard upon which the struggles of others have been played out. The increased military presence is a clear sign that the international community's commitment to establish effective governance, and secure Afghanistan's future not as a client of any, but as a secure and independent country in its own right.

President Obama's decisions on the US troop contribution provide the platform and impetus for a much greater effort in each of these three areas. The London Conference which British PM Gordon Brown has announced for January 28 will map out the route for international support for Afghanistan over the next 12-18 months and mobilise international support. It will focus on strengthening the Afghan security forces; building governance and reducing corruption. Improving regional relations will also be a key theme.

We will work to establish an Afghan-led reintegration programme, supported by an international resettlement fund, and to focus attention on economic and social development. And the conference will also be an opportunity to enhance the international civilian architecture.

The challenges in Afghanistan are complex and will take time to resolve. But at stake is not just the credibility of NATO or the stability of South Asia, but the security of people across the region, and in Europe or America. The US commitment and determination is clear. It is not just more troops that are needed but police, judges, administrators, development assistance, reintegration funding or agricultural expertise too. It is now incumbent on the rest of us to consider our own strengths and resources, and ask what more we can do. In this respect, we warmly welcome the contribution India is making to strengthening the capacity of the Afghan government and society. We look forward to working ever more closely with India in the crucial period ahead.

 

The writer is the British foreign secretary.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

TRAVEL TRAVAILS

A FIVE-STAR LIFE

LEENA NANDAN

 

As all epicureans know, hotels are synonymous with relaxation and leisure. But experts will testify that the hotel, so long a favourite of intrepid travellers, has a larger than life role in books and films as well. Espionage plots woven into thriller prose, especially of the honey-trap genre, are based on trysts in luxurious settings. The camera is partial to gala banquets where drunken characters reveal their souls. I was thrilled at the prospect of putting up in a five-star hotel for the conference on my first official trip. I walked into the hotel room and all poise forgotten, leapt back with a shriek. There was someone right there, in the passage. The bellboy ran up, consternation writ large on his face, and white as a sheet, one pointed inside with a trembling finger. The hospitality training had not schooled him in how to keep an impassive countenance; trying hard to cover his smile, he indicated the full-length mirror in the passage. I was chagrined at the realisation that one had literally been a horrifying image to behold! The theory about hotels being exciting places was confirmed; my palpitations bore testimony to that.

The other dimension of hotels is unforgettable cuisine. I remember only too well my maiden visit abroad. I studied the restaurant's menu card closely, found a host of exotic dishes, and proceeded to order them in generous quantities. The entrée was a salad that on close inspection turned out to be inhabited by the entire marine life of the region. The waiter added helpfully that they were all in roasted or boiled form. Sadly, all the poetry was in theory only. My colleague turned a light shade of green and promptly declared himself a vegetarian. It was up to me to do justice to the assortment of delicacies, which tasted alternately like burnt or boiled rubber. By my second trip I had gained poise and fancied myself as being cool, calm and confident. The hotel room was an impressive one, and more so, the bathtub with all its fancy chrome fittings. I was excited at the thought of a foam bath till, horror of horrors, a murder scene from an eminently forgettable movie came to mind, where the vamp had been strangled even as she luxuriated in the scented bubbles. I opted for the shower stall, but the comfort was short-lived. Gory reminders of Psycho flashed upon my inner eye; solitude, naturally, was far from bliss.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

QNA

'HARDLY ANY INDIAN FILM GETS RELEASED IN ITALY'

 

'River to River Florence-India Film Festival' is the first festival in the world outside India that is devoted entirely to films from, and about, India. As its eighth edition began in Florence last week, festival director Selvaggia Velo spoke with Romain Maitra :

What was the idea behind starting an exclusive film festival devoted to Indian cinema in Florence?
I began organising an exhibition of Bollywood movie banners in 1998, and then i invited those artists for a live show in Florence in 1999. This was a success and people still remember it. Then i realised that there was no festival out of India that is devoted solely to Indian films. So in 2000 i tried to organise the first edition but did not succeed because of budget problems. I tried again and in 2001 managed to give birth to the first edition of the festival. At that time, there was no festival outside India of this kind totally devoted to Indian cinema.

How has the festival changed after eight years?

Over the years, the festival has changed and grown with regard to the number of submissions and collaborations, as well as the interest of the audience and the media. We have had more sections and more guests coming over. Also, during these years, we have also seen Indian cinema change along with interesting tie-ups, such as commercial/Bollywood actors being cast for independent films, and vice versa.

What is the composition of the viewing public? Do Indian films release commercially in Italy?

Our audience is made of cinéphiles, other film-makers, other festival directors, journalists, students, people who have travelled to India or are planning to, and many English-speaking people. Florence is the cradle of the Renaissance, and many Anglosaxons come to study art here. Since all films have English subtitles - as well as Italian ones - there is a big audience from the British and the American communities here. Unfortunately, hardly any Indian film gets released in Italy. The only Indian films that see theatrical release in Italy are those of Mira Nair, Gurinder Chadha and Deepa Mehta. For the moment, there has been no space for others, but let us see what will happen…

What sort of response do you get at the festival?

We get a very good response. Often the same people come back, and there are some who have been coming since the first edition! The audience also likes very much the Q&A sessions after screening of the films, since film-makers and actors answer to questions concerning the films. However, since we do not screen Bollywood, most Indians who live here in Florence are not too interested. But, we are slowly managing to attract them also.

Does the festival help arousing interest in India?

This is slowly growing. I hear more and more that someone who has been at the festival would be visiting India. Such things have been happening more and more.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

A CONVENIENT LIE?

JUG SURAIYA 

 

Man-made climate change is a scientific fact, right? If you believe it is, you're not being scientific. Because in science - real science, and not the media mumbo-jumbo that so often is passed off as science - there is no such things as a proven fact. Real science, and the real scientists who practise it, are the essence of scepticism. The scientific definition of science is that it is a never-ending contest between competing hypotheses whose falsity has yet to be proven. In short, there is no such thing as a scientific 'fact': there are only provisional theories which, inevitably, will have to be amended or even totally rejected one day, in the light of new theories which will take their place, till they in turn are displaced by newer discoveries which produce newer theories. In real science, the investigation is endless; the case is never closed. Closure belongs to the realm not of science but of dogma, which is the antithesis of science and is the cornerstone of superstition.

 

In the increasingly contentious discourse on global warming and man-made climate change (that carbon emissions resulting from industrialisation have produced a 'greenhouse effect' leading to higher temperatures which in turn will melt the polar ice, causing devastating floods and drastically altering rainfall patterns, which will lead to drought and famine) only one thing is not open to argument. And that is that climate change is a reality, an undisputable fact. There can be, and are, literally heated arguments about who is most responsible for climate change, and what should be done about it. The developed countries want the developing countries - like China, India and Brazil - to slow down on industrial growth, while the developing countries counter that the fault lies with the developed countries who both in absolute and in per capita terms remain by far the biggest polluters and must undertake to reduce their carbon emissions first before having the cheek to lecture the developing world about its emissions.

 

But no one - or at least, almost no one - questions if climate change is, in fact, a fact, beyond all doubt. If you try to question climate change - or even to suggest that perhaps it might not be as bad as it's cracked up to be - you are immediately branded a destroyer of the planet, a dangerous heretic who should be burnt at the stake. The 'warmists' - the high priests of the religion known as climate change - will not tolerate sceptics any more than did the Spanish Inquisition.

 

So why is it that climate change has become an irrefutable 'fact'? Because there's money, huge money, in climate change. Governments can make money by imposing extra taxes for environmental infringements. Industry can make money through selling 'green' technology. Billions can - and are being - made through the trade in carbon credits. Can we afford not to have climate change?

 

Yes, say the dissenters, the two most notable being Australian geologist Ian Plimer and journalist Christopher Booker. In his book Heaven and Earth, Plimer debunks many climate change 'facts' as does Booker in The Real Global Warming Disaster. Plimer, Booker and others have pointed out that though the polar ice shelf has become thinner in places, it has also become thicker in others; that the snow on Kilimanjaro has melted because of deforestation and not through global warming; that higher temperatures in cities are caused by localised 'heat island' effects and not by climate change.

 

But perhaps the most telling 'anti-warmist' cautionary tale is about a climate change media conference held, deliberately, on the hottest day of the summer of 1998 in a mid-western US city. The night before the conference, the windows of the auditorium were left open. TV cameras focused on the faces of profusely sweating delegates. Overnight global warming became hot news. One of the chief sponsors of the meet? Al Gore. A convenient lie? Check it out.

 

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TIMES OF INDIA

STAY STEADFAST ON THE PATH OF 'DHARMA'

SHRI SHRI ANANDAMURTI

 

Once there was a king. He was a strong spiritualist, a dharmik. Whatever he said he did and whatever he did he said. One day the king declared that he would buy anything that remained unsold in the village market. People flocked to the market.

A sculptor brought an idol of the goddess Alaksmi, which negates wealth. Who would want to keep an idol Alaksmi in their house? Nobody bought it. In the evening the sculptor came to the king and said: “Please take this idol and be true to your words." The king bought it.

Alaksmi entered the palace. At midnight the king heard a woman weeping. He approached her, asking, "Mother, why are you weeping? What is the matter"? "I am the goddess of wealth, Rajyalaksmi", she replied. "Now that Alaksmi has entered the palace, how can I live here?" The king said, "Very well, for the protection of dharma I have to keep Alaksmi here. If you do not want to live here, you may go". So the goddess of wealth left.

After some time the Raja heard the sound of footsteps. He saw a man and asked, "Who are you?" The reply was: "I am Narayana." The king asked: "Where are you going?" Narayana replied: "Laksmi has left the palace, so I shall not live here." The king said, "To protect dharma, I have to keep Alaksmi, and so if you want to leave the palace, you may go; what can I do?" Narayana left. After that all the gods and goddesses left the palace. The king said, "If you all so desire you may go". In the end a glorious personality appeared. "Who are you?" asked the king. The reply was” "I am dharma raja, the king of dharma. As all the other gods and goddesses have left the palace, I am also leaving." The king replied, "It cannot be. To protect dharma I kept Alaksmi. Oh Dharmaraj, how can you leave me?" Dharma Raja said, "You are right. I will not leave."

Since Dharma remained there, Narayana slowly entered through the back door. The king said to him, "If you wish you may come." Laksmi followed him, covering her face, because she did not dare to show her face to the king. Then all the gods and goddesses started entering. They said "Where there is dharma, where there is arayana and Laksmi, we shall also go and remain."

Dharmabal is the biggest force. For those who have such a force, the worldly force is meaningless. You were with Dharma, you are with Dharma and you will be with Dharma. Don’t fear anybody. We should move on the path of Dharma even if Lakshmi leaves. Those who oppose Dharma will be destroyed.

There are three stages of people: Uttam or superior, madhyam or middle standard, adham or inferior. The adham people always think, “Can I do that great work, can I do? Shall I do? No, perhaps, I won’t be able to do great work.” They always avoid such work. The madhyam people come forward, associate them to do great work but when obstacles come, they dissociate themselves from the great work. The uttam people always participate in great work. Such people cannot come from the path of Dharma because there are impediments on that path. They will be victorious. So you must be adhering to Dharma. Victory is in your pocket. You shouldn’t cry for victory. You shouldn’t run after victory; rather victory will seek you out.

 

Excerpted from Anandavachanamritan.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

BACK IN THE USSR

 

The diplomatic language that is exchanged between India and Russia today is as glowing and warm as it was during the Soviet Union's time. Moscow continues to be generally more willing to go an extra mile on behalf of India when it comes to bucking international restrictions or sanctions. It remains India's most dependable veto provider at the United Nations Security Council. And it remains the country's main source of weapons platforms and — following the completion of a formal civilian nuclear agreement — will be one of India's main suppliers of nuclear material and technology.

 

However, it is exactly this remarkable continuity in relations that ensures bilateral ties stagnate. In the days when socialism reigned supreme in India, the nature of foreign relations could be determined through government fiat. In post-reform India, civil society has a big say in the width and depth of relations with a specific country. It is on these rocks that the Indo-Russian relationship is foundering. Compared to almost any other large country in the world, Russia is all but devoid of Indians coming to visit, study or work. More telling is that the Indian private corporate sector largely shuns Russia as a place to do business. Almost all Indian investments in Russia are done by state-owned enterprises and mostly in the energy sector.

 

So long as Indo-Russian relations lack this second leg they will be crippled — and perpetually in danger of falling over. While this can be attributed to circumstance rather than policy, the fact remains that Moscow has moved far more slowly from its socialist past than India has. Russia remains a hostile environment to private Indian investment and trade. Indian students prefer the varsities of the West. There is little or no attempt by Moscow to woo Indian society — if anything, it has ensured that Russian visas are always in short supply. The Russian leaders seems to believe that this is fine so long as they have the ear of their New Delhi counterparts. But as India continues to emerge as a global player, other countries will come bearing gifts. The Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement is just the most remarkable example of such geopolitical generosity. Others already match Russia in the defence field, will surpass it in the energy sector and may soon do so in the diplomatic world. Moscow needs to give thought about an Indian policy that does not depend only on contracts and nostalgia.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

LOST AND NOT FOUND

 

We seek him here, we seek him there/ the Yankees seek him everywhere… that damned elusive bin Laden.' This mangled ditty on the Scarlet Pimpernel best explains America's thoughts on Osama, who according to US National Security Adviser James Jones pops across to Afghanistan from his mountain lair in Pakistan once in while. But we thought Pentagon chief Robert Gates said the US had no clue where dear old bin Laden has been for the last several years. So we wonder why, when he drops in to address the faithful in Afghanistan, Obama's boys are not out with the nets. Or could it be that Osama has found a new calling altogether.

 

Don't forget that the bin Laden school of theory is to convert the whole world to the holy ways of the faith. What better time to start than this festive season? So we submit that the US has got it all wrong. Osama is planning a much bigger strike on the world than Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld could ever dream of. He is going to assume a new avatar and unleash a jihad of giving and love on the world. Yes, you're on the right track, meet Santa bin Claus and his sled drawn by Rudolph the Bactrian camel and company.

 

So on the night before Christmas, the sounds in the chimney mean bin Laden laden with gifts has dropped in. Gifts from him could range from Harpoon missiles to claymore mines and, as a bonus, free add-ons of wine and houris in heaven. So get real, America, you're barking up the wrong chimney. Osama is not hanging out in Pakistan, he is in Lapland working on the gift list. And you can get to him by sneaking up pretending that you are part of a delegation that has lost its way to Copenhagen. Ho, ho, ho.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE RAJ STRIKES BACK

SAGARIKA GHOSE

 

Environment and Forests Minister Jairam Ramesh is India's new king of climate, leading our country's charge against the West who are forcing India to accept carbon emission cuts. The IIT-educated Ramesh is an unlikely nationalist folk hero, and in spite of being targeted by the Opposition on his alleged sell out to the West, it is he who now embodies India's national interest at Copenhagen.

 

Even before Ramesh became Mr Green India, the Harvard Business School-educated Home Minister P. Chidambaram has already been consolidating his image as Mr Strong India. Chidambaram's speeches have charted a bold new position of defending the 'Idea Of India' from 'Islamic terrorism', 'Hindu extremism' and 'ideologically-driven violence'.

 

Then there is the St Stephen's College-educated Mr Educate India, Human Resource Development Minister Kapil Sibal who has also taken a daring first step in attempting to transform India's mind-numbing examination system. Last but not the least, there is the Oxford-educated Mr United India, Minority Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid who bravely declared recently that Muslim vote or no Muslim vote, Muslims should have no qualms about singing Vande Mataram.

 

The UPA not only has some very well intentioned bright ministers, but all these ministers also represent important political positions. Now haven't we always assumed that Stephanians, Oxonians, IITians and Harvard-educated individuals are totally irrelevant in today's politics? Perhaps not.

 

After all what do Chidambaram, Sibal, Ramesh and Khurshid have in common? All hail from the educated English-speaking elite, all have attended Western educational institutions, all are extremely good talkers for the mass media and all are regarded, from the point of view of conventional 'Mandalised' politics as political 'lightweights', compared to doughty people's messiahs like Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati. Yet, a liberalising society with an international interface demands talent and education, and the Hindi lobby's snobbery about the English-speaking class' political irrelevance may be a little outdated.

 

An 'English-medium education' is a tremendous aspiration across the country. Politicians of all linguistic colours from Hindi chauvinists to Marathi warriors all send their children to the best English medium schools. And now there is a creeping realisation that being able to communicate in good English provides a cutting edge in politics too.

 

Even last year it would have been impossible to believe that Ramesh would have become a mascot of the UPA government. Until five years ago, he was considered a political non-entity who had no political constituency, and had to be brought into Parliament by the backdoor as a Rajya Sabha MP from Andhra Pradesh. But last week, as Parliament debated climate change, Ramesh was transformed into India's voice ahead of the Copenhagen summit.

 

In fact, the climate change debate was a good example of how in a younger, more knowledgeable India debates are becoming more meaningful than simply loud statements of ideology. Young MPs cutting across party lines — Stephanian Sandeep Dikshit, London School of Economics-educated Jayant Chaudhary, doctor Jyoti Mirdha — spoke with an intelligence that would make an impact on a voter of 21st century India.

 

Chidambaram is a far more seasoned politician than Ramesh, and has won elections repeatedly from Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu. Yet Chidambaram, fast emerging as a tough and perspicacious home minister is hardly a mass Tamil leader or a mela-ground rallyist or a caste chieftain. Brain power rather than political power, intellectual talent rather than a talent for mass politics are the hallmarks of politicians like Chidambaram.

 

Sibal and Khurshid are not mass leaders either. Yet their ability to communicate policy and appeal to the growing numbers of an aspiring upwardly mobile voting public, indeed their saliency within the UPA, is a sign that the English-speaking educated politician has made a comeback in Indian politics. Let's not forget that it was this educated class that was in the vanguard of the freedom movement: 35.6 per cent of our first Lok Sabha was made up of lawyers.

 

Yet, elitism is not a virtue in politics. A democracy's life blood is provided by grassroots leaders like the Lalu, Mulayam and Karunanidhi and the new educated politicians have a great deal to learn from them. But the elitism of merit and education is distinct from the elitism of birth and family. Today's young MPs are all beneficiaries of family connections, yet at the same time — because of their education and articulation — they are able to dominate debates on contemporary issues such as trade and climate in a way that old-style netajis perhaps cannot.

 

Television is perhaps an important reason why the English-speaking politician has returned to saliency. Television shapes middle class perceptions of politics and TV brings a brilliant minister into voters' drawing rooms as no Ram Lila ground speech can. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's public appeal has a lot to do with the power of TV: soft spoken policy initiatives, which would be lost in mass rally, can be heard first hand on TV. Articulate English-speaking party spokespersons like Manish Tiwari or Ravi Shankar Prasad rise much faster than their colleagues who may not be as au fait with issues. An Arun Jaitley may not have contested an election, but has become the BJP's Opposition leader in the Rajya Sabha purely on his uniquely bilingual oratorial talents.

 

Sagarika Ghose is Senior Editor, CNN-IBN

 

n ghosesagarika@gmail.com

 

The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

AREN'T OUR JUDGES INDIAN?

SUDHANSHU RANJAN

 

The declaration of assets by Supreme Court judges recently is a belated step in the right direction. By challenging the direction of the Central Information Commission in the high court, and then appealing against its decision, the Chief Justice of India (CJI) gave an impression that instead of being a paladin of impartiality and transparency, he was more interested in protecting his peers. This voluntary move appears to have been taken under pressure from civil society.

 

Justice Shylendra Kumar of the Karnataka High Court hit the nail on the head by challenging the CJI's authority to speak on behalf of all judges. The CJI consistently took the stand that if Parliament makes a law for declaration of judges' assets, they would comply. Inadvertently, he invited the legislature to control judges, something that any government will be only too happy to do, but which no right-minded person would like. Thus the Supreme Court missed a rare opportunity to establish its moral authority. However, this disclosure is welcome as people will be able to know the financial background of judges now. This is the first step and one hopes more transparency is on the way.

 

But the question may be asked about why  the judiciary alone should be assigned the task of interpreting and enforcing the Constitution and not the executive and the legislature, especially when judges lack popular mandate. The answer to this was provided by Laurence H. Tribe of the Harvard University: "[T]he independent judiciary has a unique capacity and commitment to engage in constitutional discourse — to explain and justify its conclusions about governmental authority in a dialogue with those who read the same Constitution even if they reach a different view. This is a commitment that only a dialogue-engaging institution insulated from day-to-day political accountability but correspondingly burdened with oversight by professional peers and vigilant critics can be expected to maintain…

 

"The price we pay for allowing judges to discharge his commitments is that, for various periods of time, an enlightened consensus may be blocked by blind judicial adherence to constitutional views we will later come to regret. But the price of the alternative course is that, for other periods, the enlightened consensus that judges might help to catalyse in the name of the Constitution may be blocked by more self-interested or short sighted majorities."Insulation from day-to-day political accountability does not mean no accountability. There is corruption in the judiciary. Allegations against judges are not uncommon. But no action has been taken any corrupt judge. Instead, the Supreme Court further fortified the position of judges by ruling that no investigation would be made against any judge without the prior approval of the CJI.

 

Corruption is a crime under the Indian Penal Code (IPC) as well as the Prevention of Corruption Act. But judges enjoy immunity as even the president cannot give sanction for prosecution in a case of corruption against a judge of the higher judiciary without the recommendation of the CJI. No judge has been subjected to criminal investigation in the last 15 years. If an FIR cannot be registered against a judge how can his crime be investigated or proved?

 

Judges are public servants under Section 21 of the IPC. Further, Section 166 of the IPC provides for the punishment of public servants guilty of misconduct. The Judicial Officers' Protection Act, 1850 and the Judges Protection Act, 1985, read with Section 166 of the IPC, do not give any immunity. Aren't judges, like the rest of us, bound by the law?Sudhanshu Ranjan is a Delhi-based journalist.(The views expressed by the author are personal.)

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

KINDS OF BELIEF, GOOD AND BAD

P.P. WANGCHUK

 

The other day, I got superstitious in a superstitious case. And that led me into doing a little bit of research into the history of superstition and its fascinating and innumerable kinds.

 

I developed a keen interest in some of the superstitions that had never been heard of before. One such was, " Crossing your fingers helps avoid bad luck." I tried to reason out how and why this act could help one keep away from bad luck. My efforts went futile as not even a hint was available.

 

I thought of various possibilities, some of them quite weird.

 

But one possible reason that I thought quite possible and reasonable was that crossing one's fingers tight could mean concentration of body force, energy, attention and working of the mind and soul together.

 

And, this makes one a formidable force which kills negative forces and eliminates fear for the unknown and the supernatural. Bad luck 'visits' those who are weak of mind and soul.

 

Among the many other superstitions that one could learn about, the good and the bad ones were almost in equal number.

 

Some of the bad ones that I found good were: To open an umbrella in the house is to bring  bad lick. To break a mirror gets one seven years of bad luck. And it's a black cat, not any cat, that brings bad luck if it crosses your path.

 

Among the ones that bring good luck, I found these interesting: Clothes worn inside out;  and finding a penny heads up. You must get out of your bed from the same side as you got in.

 

And then look at these: Warm hand, cold heart. Cold hand, warm heart.

 

Now I know how to understand the person/s I shake hands with!

 

If one tries to look for logic behind superstitions, one gets into an interesting world of discovery that one does not like to quit so easily. The world of superstition may be for the ignorant and the fool, but let's agree life would be less interesting without them.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

WALLOW THE LEADER

UDDALOK BHATTACHARYA

 

Sometime in the late 1980s, Patna was holding what could be called the city's equivalent of the HT Leadership Summit. Only those who were invited could attend.

 

Respected guests turned up —  mostly IAS and IPS officers who were recruited into service directly, and some ministers. Then came a man, uninvited, dressed in a dhoti and wearing a Gandhi topi. Someone politely asked: "Ji, aap kaun hain?" (Who are you?) The man replied confidently and dramatically: "Main neta hoon." (I am a leader.) What  party he belonged to was not specified and he was not denied entry.

 

What happened at the summit is eminently forgettable. But the bit about a self-styled leader thinking he had the natural right to participate in a leadership summit tells a purportedly deeper story: what stuff leaders are made of in Bihar. My narrator probably missed the nuanced message.

 

Whatever people may say, politicians, assuming the onus of leadership is on them, are not all responsible for the ills of our society. Behind each wrong-doing of a politician, there are legions of common people involved. Illegal constructions in Delhi are a case in point here. Seen from another angle, how is it that even for an occasion like a book release function, publishers fall over themselves to get a leader to bless the occasion? I was part of an exercise to get a leading politician from Madhya Pradesh, who was also a minister, to release four children's books together. When I failed to reach him, one of the authors, an MP cadre woman IAS officer, described me as "unenterprising" to my work supervisor. What case was the publisher making out through his zeal to be seen sitting next to a minister? Looking at the author's behaviour, I kept wondering where to draw the line between 'people like them' and 'people like us'.

 

But leadership is not about politics alone. There are leaders in extended families, civil society organisations, corporate set-ups, universities, health chains, sports bodies and so on. There have been outstanding examples, but how many? Very few. Why? Lack of talent? Maybe. But the most potent reason to my mind  is the overarching desire to ape the ways of politicians, with the obvious implication being their abiding faith in their own effectiveness — prevaricating, playing favourites, eagerness to find fault with others while covering up their own guilt... the list is long. Fine. But, why do these other 'leaders' fail? Politicians rarely do. Because such people lack the skills of a politician. Politics is no doddle, after all.

 

Chances are the man there on sufferance in Patna was not commenting on the state of Bihar. Most probably, he was mocking the leadership summit. Or leadership itself.

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

LAW UNTO HIMSELF

 

Lalit Modi, commissioner of the Indian Premier League, was the picture of firm resolve on Tuesday. No more, he said, there would be no more extensions given to the five Pakistani cricketers to complete their paperwork to confirm participation in IPL's third season, slated to begin mid-March. With this he put the five players, who failed to obtain visas by December 7, out of contention in the tournament. Two extensions had already been accorded and now the window for teams to put up players for trading would shut on December 9, he decreed, and by December 11 teams will have to submit expressions of interest. All this will culminate on January 19 in what is now turning out to be IPL's most celebratory moment of announcing self-worth: the auctioning of cricketers.

 

Look at that time-table once again, and it is clear that Modi is being less than earnest. There is enough room for manoeuvre to allow the five Pakistani cricketers — Kamran Akmal, Sohail Tanvir, Umar Gul, Misbah-ul-Haq and Abdul Razzaq — time to complete their paperwork and still meet the trading deadlines before January 19. It transpires that they have now the clearances from their sports, foreign and interior ministries needed for no-objection certificates from the Pakistan Cricket Board. All that appears to be pending is visa clearance from the Indian high commission in Islamabad. Were Modi to stay stuck to his time-table, the absence of the five players would surely be felt by the Indian cricket fan, in whose name Modi and the BCCI brooked no flexibility in scheduling IPL 2009 and took the entire tournament overseas to South Africa.

 

Put more simply, this intransigence on extensions for the five Pakistanis appears to be a sequel to the high adventurism Modi committed the BCCI to earlier this year, by misrepresenting this country's capacity to conduct games as usual in order to emphasise the board's unilateralism in matters of cricket. Now the organisers are stepping into dangerous diplomatic territory. Were the five Pakistani players to remain barred — this after they were not permitted to participate in IPL's second season by their country in the aftermath of 26/11 — the takeaway would be about more than just the composition of IPL teams. It would curdle bilateral engagement. Modi and his colleagues must therefore be made to understand that such adventurism, this handling of cricket affairs as if they are a state within a state, will carry consequence.

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

LEARN TO SAY YES

 

International negotiations, like all forms of diplomacy, require a certain fluidity of mind. Holding doggedly to a particular position, however much you think it may be justified, isn't diplomacy, it's where diplomacy goes to die. As the Indian government settles in for a hard fortnight at Copenhagen, possibly one of the most consequential negotiations of our lifetime, we see a familiar set of people standing on the road to the future, yelling "Halt!" India, we hear from these pompous retirees and earnest do-gooders, is selling out to America. Just as we did during the nuclear deal.

 

These objectors may well think that India's firm stand, that it should not expect to clean up a mess it did not create, has served it well for two decades. Possibly, but over those years climate negotiations failed over and over again. Clearly something needed to be done to shake them up. Nor did, over the years, these staunch defenders of the shibboleths of the past succeed in making a coherent argument for their stand. Today, in 2009, it could — and is — reasonably be pointed out that if India is not part of any climate solution, if its emissions increase astronomically as have other countries', no solution would work anyway. Once that argument is accepted, sticking to a stand that doesn't take that into account is irresponsible. That underlies the government's decision to go into Copenhagen with a quantified intensity path, and with a clear sense of what is negotiable. (And the thought that putting the US administration on the spot by not blocking what so many there would be relieved to see blocked is "selling out to America" is patently ridiculous.)

 

But we see a familiar coalition take shape here: the same sort of person — some superannuated bureaucrats, others who have succeeded in climbing to the top of the "scientific establishment" — who opposed the nuclear deal. And for the same reasons. Because this stand, like that, is transformational. Because it goes beyond the aged positions that these people have spent their professional careers creating and defending. And, of course, because it isn't confrontational enough with the big bad West and with the United States. Just as it did then, the government should stand firm now.

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

LAHORE LIVES AT NIGHT

MURTAZA RAZVI

 

Lahore, Bapsi Sidhwa's "City of Sin and Splendour" carried on undeterred in its ways; then, on Monday evening, the twin bombings at a throbbing shopping centre in a middle-class neighbourhood took dozens of lives. The same day, Peshawar and Quetta, two other provincial capitals, were also hit by terrorists.

 

Lahoris may be flabbergasted at what they consider the lack of proper security around the city in these critical times, but in their own way, they were back Tuesday morning in large numbers at the scene of Monday night's carnage, laying flowers and lighting candles in remembrance of those lost — mostly women and children — to this latest spate of terrorism. This impromptu response suggests that secular sections of Pakistani society will not be cowed by the followers of militant Islam.

 

Lahore has had more than its fair share of terror attacks, but it continues to defy the Taliban. And it will even now, insist ordinary citizens walking in the streets. The youth music festival planned for later this month will be held undeterred by acts of terror, say the organisers.

 

"Terrorists cannot be allowed to change our way of life," says one music enthusiast. "Music must now be played and heard louder still. Only a cultural onslaught by performing artists, with common citizens in attendance, can send a message to those indulging in terrorism that we will live and we will live well. You cannot bog down our spirit." This sentiment is shared widely.

 

However, Islamabad, not exactly known for a fun-filled environment, has succumbed badly, as has Peshawar. There are barricades and snap checks literally every few yards down any road worth the name. Going by the recent number of terrorist assaults on the twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, it seems every other building is a high-value target. There are embassies, UN offices and a myriad of NGOs all over, and all are equally despised by the Taliban for spreading what they see as anti-Islamic culture and values, such as women walking or driving or music being played out loud.

 

In Islamabad going to the Marriot Hotel, hit twice in two years, is chilling. You are stopped at some nine snap-checking points and grilled, and your car checked. At the sixth such barrier, I could not keep myself from asking the security officer if I looked like a terrorist. "No, sir," came the confident answer. "But it's people like you we feel comfortable checking thoroughly because we know you are not going to blow yourself up, and us with you. I wouldn't know what to do if I really suspected someone of being a bomber. I too have little kids at home." His honesty was laced with an uneasy sense of a tragedy foretold, as it were.

 

Once you reach the Marriot, you see a thick, high wall, like the one the Israelis have built. A bunker-like reception area that leads to what used to be the driveway of the hotel.

 

Entering the building you suddenly realise how empty it all looks. "Am I the only person silly enough to have come here?" you wonder. It'll be a long time before the Marriot can bounce back to business as usual, you are told by a nervous receptionist. An unspecified number of snipers guard the hotel property.

 

Islamabad after dark seems like it's under curfew. Jackals and wild boars seem to be the only presence in the thick foliage that can hide so much from surveillance. Mere mortals dare not step out.

 

I was nursing similar depressing thoughts while landing in Lahore the week after my trip to Islamabad. But the contrast between Islamabad and Lahore was pleasant. The roads and the bazaars buzzed with night-time traffic and shopping, the restaurants were just as crowded, though Lahoris said they avoided going out during the day. The reason: all recent bombings took place in daytime; none at night! You were told. Well, that was true until last Monday.

 

But then Lahore defies logic. A reason has to be found, even if obviously dumb, to keep the good times rolling despite the adversity. The Punjab government keeps shutting down privately-owned schools for lack of adequate security — but schooling again is a daytime activity; nights, they said, were safer. The motorists start rolling out their vehicles after 9 pm, and then it's business as usual, including all-night restaurants serving gourmet meals to their obsessive-compulsive patrons.

 

The only places that were barricaded were police stations and government offices and residences, for these had been the targets, until Monday night. Now it seems public places too are in the bull's eye. But still there are hardly any snap checks on the roads, one is told. Hotels and malls have long had their metal detectors installed, and they feel threatened no more than the average citizen.

 

Life must go on, insist the Lahoris — and it does.

 

The writer is an editor with 'Dawn', Karachi express@expressindia.com

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

MORE THAN JUST SYMBOLS

ASHLEY J. TELLIS

 

Manmohan Singh's recent state visit — the first hosted by the Obama administration — has been almost universally criticised in India for being, although high on symbols, everything from a fizzle to a failure. The critics, in this instance, may be exaggerating. If the yardstick of success is replicating the July 2005 achievement, then this summit indeed pales in comparison. The 2005 visit was epochal because it removed the last major structural impediment to better US-Indian strategic relations. Since then, however, bilateral ties have become broad and diverse, spanning a variety of issues where both agreement and disagreement persist in varying measure. This dominance of ordinariness suggests that US-Indian ties today are rapidly approaching normality. Dramatic breakthroughs, therefore, will become increasingly rare, and although this visit did not produce any, it was nonetheless more successful than many commentators appreciate.

 

Consider the context surrounding the November summit. After eight years of an unprecedented deepening in bilateral ties, President Barack Obama got off to a rather wobbly start in sustaining the US partnership with India. Although Democratic cheerleaders were emphatic during the presidential campaign that Obama would be just as invested as Bush was in preserving India's priority in US foreign policy, Obama's early positions made those claims suspect. Beginning with his unenthusiastic support for the nuclear deal when still a US senator and continuing with his ruminations about mediating in Kashmir when still president-elect, Obama intimated changes in US policy that would have adversely affected India. Since becoming president, his evident hesitation about committing the resources necessary to secure victory in Afghanistan and the fear that he might seek to appease Pakistan at India's expense combined to produce a deep anxiety about Obama's strategic vision in New Delhi. Finally, his angst-inducing faux pas of failing to integrate India into his vision of Asian stability, even as he seemingly endorsed a Chinese oversight role in South Asia just on the eve of Singh's visit to Washington, intensified the growing suspicion that Obama would likely end up undermining core Indian strategic interests.

The prime minister's visit to Washington, therefore, must be assessed against this inauspicious backdrop and against the widespread fear that the bilateral partnership, which had enjoyed unparalleled success under George W. Bush, was at serious risk because of Obama's neglect and missteps involving India. Given these realities, the correct measure of accomplishment during this visit could not be whether Obama and Singh would produce a breakthrough akin to July 2005, but whether they would fundamentally protect the inherited achievement.

 

In particular, the success of this summit had to be measured by whether the two leaders could achieve three specific objectives. First, could they prove to the international community that the US-Indian bilateral relationship transcends the preferences of any single leader on either side and actually represents the national strategy of both countries? Second, could they assure each other that their fundamental strategic goals are in fact convergent, if not aligned? Third, could they exploit the complementarities in their evolving partnership, while simultaneously managing their differences effectively?

 

By these criteria, the recent Obama-Singh summit was more successful than is currently realised. Through both the symbol of being the first invited state visitor to Washington and, more importantly, through the public affirmations that India's rise was helpful to preserving stability in Asia, President Obama sought to signal continuity with Bush policy. In other words, strengthening the strategic partnership with India does represent the national strategy of the United States — even if Obama has yet to emulate the critical decision made by his predecessor to deliberately aid the growth of Indian power for strategic reasons.

 

Further, the warm private conversations between Obama and Singh provided proof of their personal rapport and strengthened the convergence towards common goals. Their utterly frank tête-à-tête not only traversed the range of issues that deeply affect critical American and Indian geopolitical interests, but it also produced a new and consequential appreciation of India's concerns at the highest levels of the US government. Given that this was the first meeting between Obama and Singh where the bilateral relationship was the centrepiece of discussion, there could have been no better ending — and the prime minister's later declaration that he was "very satisfied with the outcome of [his] discussion with President Obama" said it all.

 

Finally, the joint statement and fact sheets published by the two sides confirmed the reality that the two countries share many complementarities that can yield fruit which will make a real difference to the lives of millions of ordinary Americans and Indians. Equally significant, they proved that even when both sides disagree on matters of significance — climate change being a good example — Washington and New Delhi can manage their differences creatively and with an eye to reaching solutions, rather than merely engaging in grandstanding as both might have done in the past.

 

When the evidence is weighed, therefore, the prime minister's trip to Washington was emphatically not the disappointment that many in India have claimed. To be sure, work still remains to be done: lasting success will require that the assurances expressed during the bilateral discussions find reflection in future policy decisions in both countries. That will undoubtedly be the ultimate proof of achievement. But while the two governments move towards that end, Singh's visit has already had important ameliorative benefits: it has rectified the American missteps that had cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship; it has refocused the United States on issues of high politics that are critical to both nations' security, while providing a fillip to further cooperation in low politics; it has cemented presidential attention on critical strategic issues involving India; it has provided opportunities for India to demonstrate tangibly its desire to partner with the United States on issues of global security; and, it has further deepened the personal ties between Obama and Singh, which are indispensable for any sustained transformation of the relationship. All in all, a worthwhile harvest for a summit that was supposedly only about symbols.

 

The writer, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, has served as senior adviser to the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, in which capacity he was involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India

express@expressindia.com

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

MOVING IN FOR THE SKILL

BIBEK DEBROY

 

Is the government finally waking up to our skills problem, and will proposed reforms deliver? The 11th Five Year Plan document went as far back as the Kothari Commission of 1964-66, which had contemplated that 25 per cent of secondary school students would opt for vocational education (VE). NSS data show only 5 per cent of the 19-24 age group in India have some skills, compared to 96 per cent in South Korea. It is odd that policy debate on revamping and reforming education tends to focus on elementary and secondary education (delivered through schools) and higher education, with little said on vocational education. Consider the annual reports of the human resource development ministry. Vocational education is interpreted as nothing more than tagging a vocational stream on to secondary education. This is not to suggest the skills deficit is not recognised. There were Planning Commission reports of the S.P. Gupta Special Group in 2002 and the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force in 2001. And of course the 11th Plan document, which makes the additional point that there is near exclusive reliance on a few training courses with long duration (two-three years), covering around 100 skills. The Plan document tells us China has short duration modular courses for 4000 skills.

 

Who delivers VE, both formal and informal? Within the formal system, higher technical education is imparted through professional colleges and lower technical education through vocational education in post-secondary schools. In addition, there is specialised training through technical institutes and a system of apprenticeship training. The HRD ministry has 1244 polytechnics. There are 5114 Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) and six Advanced Training Institutes (ATIs) run by the Centre. 20,800 public and private sector establishments are covered under the Apprentices Act. This sounds impressive. But the Plan document has a damning indictment. "There are seventeen ministries and departments of GOI which are imparting vocational training to about 3.1 million persons every year... Each ministry/ department in charge of subjects sets up training establishments in its field of specialisation. The attempt to meet training needs through multiple authorities — labour, handlooms, handicrafts, small industry, education, health, women and child development, social welfare, tourism, etc leads to redundancy at some locations... The unorganised sector which constitutes about 93 per cent of the workforce is not supported by any structural system of acquiring or upgrading skills. By and large, skill formation takes place through informal channels like family occupations, on the job training under master craftsmen with no linkages to the formal education training and certification."

 

Eight per cent of new entrants into the work force have no opportunities for development of skills. While there are 12.8 million new entrants into the work force every year, existing training capacity is 3.1 million per year. In both rural and urban India, and for both males and females, attendance rates in educational institutions drop by around 50 per cent in the 15-19 age group. Simultaneously, labour force participation rates begin to increase in this age group and by the time it comes to the 25-29 age group, it is 95.0 per cent for rural males and 94.4 per cent for urban males. Figures for females are lower at 36.5 per cent in rural India and 22.1 per cent in urban India.

 

If one considers the government's road-map for delivering skills, such as stated in 11th Plan document, it has the following. Implement a Skill Development Mission, with Skill Development Programmes involving private sector, so that placement is also ensured. Provide one-time capital grants to private institutions and stipends and subsidies towards fees for SC/ ST/ OBC/ minorities and other BPL (below poverty line) candidates. Enlarge the 50,000 Skill Development Centres. Expand public sector skill development infrastructure by a factor of five. Once expanded, this can be handed over to the private sector for management. Expand capacity for vocational education in schools, with focus on capturing Class VII and Class IX dropouts. Assess skill deficits sector-wise and region-wise. Establish a National Skill Inventory and a National Database for Skill Deficiency Mapping. Reposition employment exchanges for career counselling. Establish a national qualifications framework, to establish equivalence and vertical mobility across various forms of vocational education. Set up third-party accreditation systems, de-linked from the regulator.

 

The Prime Minister's National Council on Skill Development, National Skill Development Coordination Board and National Skill Development Corporation (NKDC) have been set up. Beyond the signal that skill development is important and has been recognised as such, it is too early to speculate what will come out of these efforts. Much the same can be said of the "National Skill Development Policy", formulated by the labour ministry in March 2009. Nevertheless, some points should be flagged. First, if the proposed labour market information system is developed, there should be better quality of information on skill deficits, sector-wise and region-wise. And there should also be movement on affiliation, accreditation, examination and certification. Much of this is sought to be done through the National Council on Vocational Training (NCVT). Second, coverage of the Apprenticeship Training Scheme will be expanded. Third, employment exchanges will be strengthened and upgraded.

 

There are several reasons for dissatisfaction with the government's road-map. First, government ministries and departments work in silos. Notwithstanding reform intentions, it is not obvious that multiplicity is going to decline, with improvement in coordination. Second, implementation remains a state subject and there is no guarantee that delivery will improve across all states. Third, though the road-map incorporates possible private sector provisioning too, it is fundamentally based on expansions in formal public training systems. While the formal versus informal or the organised versus unorganised dichotomy is often policy-induced, it is necessary to subsume successful examples of delivery in informal and private categories. Fourth, quite a bit hinges on improving vocational education in secondary schools. Increase in enrolment rates at the primary level will create eventual pressures to improve secondary schools. But at the moment, there is no particular reason for optimism.

 

The writer is a Delhi-based economist

express@expressindia.com

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

SETTING OUR MPS FREE

MANISH TEWARI

 

Vice President Hamid Ansari's observations on internal democracy in our legislatures merit revisiting the Tenth Schedule of the Indian Constitution that seeks to prevent party hopping by our Parliamentarians and state legislators.

 

He said "We need political consensus so that room for political and policy expression in Parliament for a member is expanded. A whip could be limited to bills that could threaten the survival of a government, such as money bills or no confidence motions".

 

He was alluding to the rigours of the Tenth Schedule that inadvertently restrict the freedom of expression of individual members to serve the higher ideal of political morality, ordained unfortunately through a legislative fiat.

 

One of the first actions of the Rajiv Gandhi government was to introduce The Constitution (Fifty Second Amendment) Bill 1985 to add the Tenth Schedule to the Indian Constitution. The Schedule's mandate was to curb the growing tendency of political defections. In the decades spanning the late '60s to the early '80s, defections became the rule rather than the exception.

 

The unamended Schedule penalised individual acts of defection but recognised the principle of splits whereby if one-third of the members of a legislative party broke away and formed a separate group or joined another political party, they could continue as members of the legislature. The ingenuity of the immoral converted the retail malaise of defections into a wholesale malady.

 

The NDA government, through The Constitution (Ninety First Amendment) Act 2003 omitted paragraph three from the Tenth Schedule which allowed one-third of the parliamentarians/ legislators to split from their parent party. However, it left paragraph four in place, which allows two-thirds of the members of a parliamentary/ legislative party to merge with an existing political party or form a new political party. What this constitutional amendment did was raise the wholesale defection bar from one third to two thirds.

 

Against this background, Ansari underscores the dilemma — that is, how to provide more freedom of expression to our lawmakers while containing their opportunism through legislative action.

 

What may have impelled Ansari's exposition is that the drafting of laws in India remains an essentially non-transparent bureaucratic function. To top it all, political parties routinely issue whips to its members to vote one way or the other on a bill. Treasury members have to vote for every bill and the Opposition is invariably against it, irrespective of the merits. This disincentivises lawmakers from seriously researching, doing lateral thinking or searching for best practices to incorporate into legislation. They become disinterested in constructively contributing towards legislation, which is the principal function of Parliament and instead expand their energies on other procedural instrumentalities like questions, zero hours, calling attention etc., to try and meaningfully contribute to the national discourse.

 

The contra-argument is that Parliamentary standing committees have been instituted to enable individual MPs to provide their inputs on legislation so that a broad consensus can be hammered out before a bill enters the house for the final rites of passage. However this argument suffers from an inherent flaw. Since a member of Parliament only serves on one standing committee and the practical possibility of getting onto even one more committee depends upon the availability of space which is invariably non-existent, therefore a MP is handicapped by the inherently constraining committee system.

 

What then are the actionable points of Ansari's observations on which various political parties need to build consensus? One small amendment needs to be made to the Tenth Schedule and, perhaps, one-odd change to the Representation of Peoples Act can provide an appropriate fix to this problem.

 

First and foremost, the provisions of the Tenth Schedule need to be tightened by shifting the burden of proof, and automatically disqualifying the lawmaker who violates a lawful direction of the party on whose symbol he has been elected. Rather than wait for a petition to be filed by the political party concerned in terms of paragraph six and the relevant rules of the Tenth Schedule, the onus should be on the member concerned to file a petition for the restoration of his membership.This would obviate the problem of a friendly presiding officer delaying or reserving a decision on a disqualification petition as has been the case in the past, and allowing defaulting lawmakers to complete their terms. Defection may be treated as an electoral malpractice whereby a defector is debarred for six years from contesting any election.

 

Rather than waiting for the wisdom of political parties to manifest itself through a self-imposed restriction on the issuance of whips to those legislative items that threaten the stability of government like money bills and no-confidence motions, an amendment may made to paragraph two of the Tenth Schedule that inserts a proviso which states "That the provisions of Para 2 (1) (b) would only apply to the violation of a direction given by a political party on a no-confidence motion or matters connected to the financial business of the government. This would entail automatic disqualification of the member concerned". Paragraph four should be deleted. This would take care of both stability and expanded legislative space for individual members.

 

The writer is an advocate in the Supreme Court, MP and national spokesperson of the Congress. Views expressed are personal

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

HACKING THE DEBATE

 

Few of us would escape with reputations intact if our email were made public, and the scientists ensnared in "climategate" are no exception. Writing "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years ... to hide the decline" makes Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia, who typed that in 1999, look as if he is pulling a fast one to conceal a trend toward global cooling. And when another scientist wrote that "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow —even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" it looks like a blatant attempt to censor opposing views.

 

Those of you who know I consider the science of anthropogenic global warming solid probably expect me to explain that the hacked e-mails don't mean what they seem, and that, even if they did, it would not undercut the multiple lines of evidence showing that greenhouse-gas emissions are causing climate change. All true. But first I have to say that the emails reveal two tendencies that have set back attempts to show the public and policymakers that climate change is real and serious.

 

Many of the emails refer to attempts to evade requests from critics for raw data, some of which comes from national meteorological offices that, when they sent Jones the data, required confidentiality for hardly more reason than "we can, so let's." Really, all climate data "needs to be publicly available and well documented," Judith Curry of Georgia Tech, a leading researcher on the climate-hurricane link, wrote in an open letter to climate scientists. This includes "how the data were treated and manipulated, what assumptions were made in assembling the data sets, and what data [were] omitted and why." To be sure, most of the data, and even the computer codes used to analyse them, have been freely available for years (not buried in Al Gore's backyard). But all the data and methodology should be in the public domain. Yes, critics will cherry-pick and play "gotcha," as they have with the e-mails, but the science of climate change is robust enough to withstand that.

 

Other e-mails reflect the ugly politicisation of climate science, which is unending. Climate scientists have been subject to harassment and character assassination (Google "Ben Santer" and "Wall Street Journal" to see what I mean), and just last week, Rep. James Sensenbrenner accused the researchers of "scientific fascism" and, with GOP colleagues, made the stunningly stupid demand that the EPA therefore stop regulating greenhouse emissions. It may be human nature to respond in kind; in one e-mail, a scientist wishes he could beat up a leading denier. But the scientists should be bigger than the know-nothings. Rather than "circl[ing] the wagons," as Curry put it, respond to misinformation with physics, data, and analysis as, for instance, the RealClimate blog does.

 

Especially since the science — paleoclimate data, heating in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere, and other fingerprints of manmade climate change — is so compelling. Take the two papers by climate sceptics that triggered that "redefine the peer-reviewed literature" e-mail. Both were cited and discussed in the IPCC report — and have now been shown to be riddled with errors. Science worked as it should, good research crowding out bad.

 

Climategate has tarnished the image of climate research, but hasn't undermined its substance. At the risk of invoking the silver-lining cliché, maybe climategate will spur scientists to change how they conduct their research and engage with critics.

 

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INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

VIEW FROM THE LEFT

MANOJ C G P

 

HITCHED TIGHTER

 

In the latest issue of CPM mouthpiece People's Democracy, General Secretary Prakash Karat once again talks about India's deepening ties with the US in the context of the prime minister's visit to America. He says the Indian establishment is unable to see the actual purpose and design behind the efforts of the US to make India a strategic ally.

 

His argument — the US firmed up a strategic partnership with India keeping China in mind and as part of its Asian strategy. Besides, Washington wants to be advantageously placed to invest and exploit India's huge market and would like New Delhi's support for its Af-Pak policy. Essentially, the Manmohan Singh visit has underlined the character of the Indo-US strategic alliance. "The US has enlisted India as a military ally and is on the way to becoming a large scale supplier of weapons which will enormously benefit its arms companies. Besides, the US has been able to prise open various sectors of the economy for American capital and is now looking forward to FDI in higher education, retail and other services. The Indo-US nuclear deal has straitjacketed India into adopting positions contrary to an independent foreign policy, he says.

 

Washington, unlike what the pro-American acolytes in the Indian establishment want, will continue to accord importance to Pakistan, which is not only a non-Nato major ally but also its dubious partner in the "war against terror". Referring to Manmohan Singh's first visit to the US in 2005, he says "nothing has changed in between except that India is now more firmly aligned with the United States.

 

DUBAI AND ITS COPYCATS

 

The Dubai World debacle prompted the CPI to take a dig at Union Surface Transport Minister Kamal Nath, who it says had some time back lauded the UAE-government-owned firm as a model of future development of real estates. The lead editorial in CPI's weekly organ New Age says Kamal Nath wanted the model to be adopted in India with major share from the private sector including foreign capital. "Will he now learn a lesson or two from the Dubai debacle or will continue to beat drums for the international finance capital that is at the root of the global economic melt-down?" it asks.

 

As regarding the crisis faced by the Dubai World, it says if immediate measures are not taken by the rulers of Dubai, and other oil-rich emirates refuse to come to the rescue of Dubai, it may lead to the government of Dubai itself going broke. "If that happens, it will definitely trigger another serious phase of the global meltdown."

 

BJP ON THE BRINK

Contrary to the general perception, the CPI feels the Liberhan report on the demolition of Babri Masjid may hasten the downslide of the BJP. An article in New Age says the report has come out at the worst time for the BJP and was bound to aggravate the internal crisis. "Even before the party could decide on a smooth succession to the next generation of leaders, the revival of memories of the only successful, though highly divisive, movement it had ever organised was bound to exacerbate its internal rifts," it says.

 

It observes that L.K. Advani, who had been indicted by the probe panel, would now seize the opportunity provided by the urging of majoritarian sentiments in the party and in the sangh parivar, to try and return to centre-stage. Besides, the report has given an opportunity to the hardliners in the party to bounce back, which could also pose a threat to the NDA, the article analyses.

 

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FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

IN THE INTEREST OF GROWTH

 

Governor D Subbarao chose a most unlikely forum—a panel discussion with three of his immediate predecessors as central bank chiefs—to shed some of RBI's conventional wisdom on inflation. At last, the RBI governor made a clear distinction between supply side-led inflation and demand-led inflation, and stated in no uncertain terms that monetary policy is likely to be ineffective against supply side inflation, the kind which we are seeing in the economy now. Of course, he qualified it by saying that if inflationary expectations take hold, even if because of supply side problems, then the central bank may have to intervene using interest rates. Clearly, RBI has moved to a more nuanced position on the inflation-interest rates debates, which means that the central bank remains concerned about growth and the importance of lower interest rates in ensuring that growth chugs along.

 

The central bank chief also made the crucial distinction between consumer price inflation and asset price inflation and made it clear that RBI is more worried about the latter. Again, interest rates are an ineffective tool to contain asset price inflation and governor Subbarao admitted that. In a bold hint to future intent, he even said that there might be a need to think about capital controls if capital flows experience a surge and push asset price inflation towards an unsustainable bubble. Obviously, RBI will have to think very carefully before actually recommending capital controls—such a move will impact foreign inflows into India. But the governor's thinking on this matter is not way off mainstream thinking, which has come around to supporting, for example, a Tobin tax in certain situations. Of course, the situation as it stands now does not merit the imposition of a Tobin tax or any other restriction on capital flows—foreign inflows are lower than they were at the time of boom when we had no capital controls. And governor Subbarao refused to elaborate on any specific policy measures he had in mind. But given RBI's traditional orthodoxy on a range of issues, it's good to finally see some opening up in terms of the discourse within the central bank. In practical terms, we hope that this means that RBI will desist from hiking interest rates until the end of this financial year at the least—most analysts believed that RBI will hike rates as early as January 2010, but that was before governor Subbarao brought much clarity to the central bank's thinking on this admittedly tricky policy issue.

 

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FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

NUCLEAR IS A BIG DEAL

PM Manmohan Singh has taken his flagship nuclear diplomacy an important step forward by signing a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement that will lead to the setting up of additional Russian reactors in India. Obviously, this agreement follows from the Indo-US agreement on which Singh staked his reputation as much as his government last year. In fact, no sooner had that deal been announced than Russia rushed to offer us nuclear materials. Now the Russian deal is being described as better than the American one because it stipulates that nuclear fuel supplies will continue even if India carries out a nuclear test in the future, or if the pact is cancelled for any other reason. Betwixt the two deals, the Singh government has also taken steps to move ahead with Canada, France, Japan and the UK. When Canadian PM Stephen Harper was visiting India recently and was quizzed about his country's volte-face on a 35-year-old policy of sanctioning India post its 1974 test, he said: "We are not living in the 1970s. We are living in 2009." Today's reality is that international companies are competing for a piece of the pie that makes up India's growing energy needs.

 

India has ambitious plans, seeking to increase the nuclear component of its electricity supply from 3% to 10% by 2022 and to 26% by 2052. This works out to an average growth rate of 9.5% per year, which is actually a bit less than the average global nuclear growth between 1970-2002. These were decades in which India's nuclear programme stagnated as imports of and access to foreign technologies dried up; they included long periods in which global capacity addition slowed down as well. In other words, ambitious as India targets are, they are also achievable. This is not to underestimate the challenges involved. Land acquisition remains an issue as in other infrastructure projects, upfront financing is high and returns come in only in the long term, safety remains an ongoing concern and so on. The recent contamination at the Kaiga plant warns of existing dangers and, as capacity increases, the question of dealing with spent fuel will become more urgent. But challenges apart, imperatives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and seeking energy security will make nuclear power more and more necessary to our energy mix. Meanwhile, the Russian deal underscores the enduring strength of India's traditional defence ties. But Singh had it right when he said energy is the greatest emerging dimension of the Indo-Russian relationship.

 

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FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

DON'T CREATE LICENCE RAJ IN CLIMATE

MICHAEL WALTON

It's getting cold in Copenhagen. A few degrees hotter could improve things for the Danes. That isn't true for future generations of Biharis, Bangladeshis or Zambians—or for anyone living in areas at risk of the (potentially) catastrophic effects of climate change. That's a major reason why agreement on a climate deal is so hard: it is inextricably about distribution. It is also hard because it is a huge collective action problem. But it is the interaction between the collective action challenge and the absence of agreed upon mechanisms over the distribution of losses and gains that makes a deal really, really hard.

 

There are three distributional issues at stake: across generations; between rich and poor countries; and between different groups within countries. The first two just got more difficult because of the financial crisis. It's hard to worry about 2050 when you're at risk of losing your job. And the huge rise in public debt means rich nations face fiscal consolidation for years, increasing resistance to large transfers for mitigation and adaptation in poor nations.

 

Despite these difficulties, there is rising hope that a political deal will emerge from Copenhagen. It will be imperfect, but could be the basis for a treaty and better future arrangements. However, I want to focus here on the risk that within-country distributional issues will be a distorting factor, not because of helping the poor, but because concentrated interests will protect their position and engage in rent-seeking.

 

Take the major policy instrument of cap & trade. This looks like a brilliant solution to economic, distributional and political problems. Here's an ideal scenario. Rich countries get permits to emit greenhouse gases. Governments auction them to polluting industries, and use the revenues to finance innovation and adaptation in poor countries. Industries trade permits with each other, setting the price of carbon emissions in the market, thus fostering more efficient choices over emission reductions. Crucially, there are 'offsets' for action in developing countries, as under the Clean Development Mechanism: industries can reach their limit through purchasing emission reductions from green projects in Brazil, China, India or elsewhere. This is good for efficiency and distribution: it reduces global emissions at a lower cost, and it transfers resources to poor countries. It also looks good politically since it avoids an explicit tax and finances mitigation in poor countries without government money.

 

The problem is that it isn't working like this.

 

First, in the European scheme many industries were excluded, and those included realised that they would do better to get large allocations of permits for free! They succeeded. American businesses have also managed to change the Obama plan—still in Congress—from an auction to free permits. Somehow this isn't a big issue in the public debate; whether permits are free or auctioned sounds arcane. Yet, who pays to reduce catastrophic risks for future generations is a big issue, justifying well-informed democratic debate.

 

Second, while some offsets will be a good sell politically (supporting forests, if that could be worked out), others won't. Providing transfers to help Chinese or Indian industries and power stations go green will be seen as subsidising the competition—politically lethal when workers lose jobs, and subject to business lobbying. This is already a theme in American discourse.

 

Third, there are real problems about how to verify that a project is additional. In the recent affair over Chinese wind farms, the Chinese government was accused of withdrawing subsidies in order to get offset funds from the Clean Development Mechanism. This looks like a system ripe for rent-seeking and obfuscation.

 

These issues become more important when the market for offsets becomes large—and that is badly needed if it is to have a serious impact and to avoid the problems of price instability that typified the European market. This all matters: if the system is seriously distorted, the costs of mitigation could rise much more than the 1-2% of GDP now estimated, and political support will be threatened.

 

Is there an alternative? Much better would be an explicit carbon tax and transparent subsidies from rich to poor countries, with transitional compensatory mechanisms for losers in rich and poor countries. That really sounds like the musings of a naïve economist! But I think these issues have to be openly discussed. Perhaps the tough choices over fiscal consolidation will focus the mind of rich country politicians: after all, a carbon tax (or indeed auctioning of permits) is a wonderful tax that reduces rather than increases distortions. In the meantime, since cap & trade is the main game in town, it will be important to have serious, open debate on the influence of sectional interests, who is paying and how to make schemes work transparently. Otherwise the devil in any deal will lie in the distributional details.

 

The author is at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Institute of Social & Economic Change and the Centre for Policy Research

 

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FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

STATISTICS VS REAL PICTURE IN AGRICULTURE

YOGINDER K ALAGH

The second quarter numbers on agricultural growth (0.9%) are now known. What do they mean for agriculture? This column has consistently argued that in addition to the natural uncertainty over agricultural production, there is the policy uncertainty created by flip-flop stories on agriculture. 'High level statements' at the beginning of the meltdown treated agriculture as a major source of growth (above 4%) counteracting the deceleration of the economy; a source of rural demand counteracting low export and foreign investment, underpinning low growth. After kharif this year, it is all down in the dumps. According to a wag, growth estimates vary depending on rain and sunshine between the Sachivalaya and Krishi Bhavan in Delhi, particularly depending on the extent to which certain luminaries look out of the window.

 

Agricultural growth numbers for the recent period, when the underlying data is being firmed up, are a slippery game and only the charlatans are sure of the second decimals. But the underlying tendencies are relatively clear, giving scope for intelligent surmising. Last year, after the third quarter, we had argued that since the average growth in the first two quarters was 2.75% and the third quarter was negative at a little over 2%, this gave an average growth rate of 1.2% for the first three quarters. Since a big revival in the last quarter was talked about, we said that it was obvious that the whole year growth rate of 2.6%-plus was off the agenda.

 

Since no one knows what is actually happening, it is useful to look at the underlying trends. The agriculture economy did not grow in 2004-05, since the year before that was one of exceptional weather, but if you took the annual average of growth rates from 2004-05 to 2007-08 for the larger agricultural sector—which includes animal husbandry, forestry and fishing—the number stacks up to 3.5% per year. It is lower in crop production, but dairying, poultry and fish (inland, not deep sea) are growing faster. More recently we argued that grains, largely led by official policies, are not doing well, and in the growth league it is cotton and animal husbandry.

 

Last month we argued in this column that "Non-cereals are doing better, apart from edible oils, and it's animal husbandry and fish that are the leaders of the pack. In the growth league it is animal husbandry, non-cereals, and then cereals, with pulses and inferior cereals at the bottom." These underlying trends we tend to neglect in the breast-beating phase when falling agricultural production is the stick to beat the farmer with for all our macro policy failures. Government economists and ministers blame rainfall, the farmer and bully anybody with a counterfactual. CSO has again come out with the counterfactual. Actually the kharif crops of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds account for less than a fifth of the GDP from agriculture. In pulses and oilseeds, the policy of subsidised imports with zero tariffs has destroyed incentives. But from the production angle, other crops like cotton, livestock, milk, poultry and fish have been growing between 3% and 4%, and it is that which gives the increase of Rs 4,021 crore of additional domestic product at 1999-2000 constant prices in agricultural GDP—in turn a growth of 2.9% in the first half of 2009-10. GDP or value added in agriculture in 2009-10 as a percentage of private final expenditure at constant prices is at 24%, and was so in 2008-09. So, obviously, agriculture is not the macroeconomic villain it is made out to be. At current prices, this year agriculture is a larger share of private consumption expenditure. Government had better find another explanation for inflation. How about fiscal reliance on consumption instead of investment growth as a reason for starters?

 

What will happen to agricultural growth in 2009-10 for the year as a whole? It will be lower. Incidentally, while minimum growth takes place in the diversifying sectors, the first half of a year is not a good projector of annual growth in agriculture. In 2006-07, H1 growth was 2.9% while the annual figure was 3.8%. But in 2007-08, it was the other way round. The H1 number was 4.5%, the annual was 2.6%. Rice and kharif oilseeds will take a knock this year. With a good rabi, the decline in agricultural GDP may be as low as 1% and the macro outcomes will be decided elsewhere. The best guess for the bad outcome would be 2% decline. This will not make or mar the performance of the economy. The inflationary trend is policy determined. Like the first half of the year it is extremely unlikely that agricultural value added will be lower as a share of aggregate demand as shown by its share of private consumption expenditure. This is also shown by the fact that prices are rising for the agricultural sectors that are growing the fastest. India has to improve its literacy levels on Bharat. It would be nice if a comment on agriculture, growth and inflation was at least remotely based on easily available facts.

 

The author is a former Union minister

 

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FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

BEER IS ABOUT DISTRIBUTION

REGHU BALAKRISHNAN

It's a win-win deal, exhorted liquor baron Vijay Mallya during a conference call to announce UB's deal with global beer major Heineken NV on Monday. But he refused to divulge any details, especially financial ones, to substantiate his comment on the deal. At the same time, Jean-François van Boxmeer, chairman of Heineken's executive board & CEO, said, "In the world of beer, there is no bigger or more exciting growth opportunity than India." He could not hide his joy of fructifying efforts in establishing Heineken's presence in the steady growing Indian beer market, on the back of Mallya's successful strategies. In 2009, the Indian beer market is expected to grow at 9-10% to 14.4 million hectolitres.

 

For Boxmeer, tapping the Indian market means exploiting the strong distribution network that helps local players to dominate the market. It's no wonder that Kingfisher corners more than half of the Indian beer market share. The mounting number of breweries in each state and strong position in distributorships made Mallya the real king of good times.

 

At a global level, four players—Heineken, A-B InBev, SABMiller and Carlsberg—together hold 49% of the beer market. The remainder is held by local brands that pose a local threat to the majors. Heineken, which holds about 10% of the global beer market, knows the significance of a market like India, where a single beer brand holds the lion's share. The best way to establish Heineken in India is to use the route used by Mallya—strong distribution channels that keep MNCs away from grabbing the pie. Vice-versa, Mallya says Kingfisher brands will be distributed abroad through the Heineken marketing channels, but will it be successful in the West, where consumers are more brand conscious?

 

The earlier economic boom in India increased the number of consumers who can afford high-end beer and spirits brands, which would be a pushing factor for Heineken, priced above the local Indian brands. Though Kingfisher will remain unchallenged in India for quiet some more time, surely Heineken will conquer the hearts and then wallets of Indian beer lovers in the near future.

 

reghu.balakrishnan@expressindia.com

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

CORRECT DIAGNOSIS, WRONG CURE

 

Legitimate socio-economic grievances can take problematical political forms. Decades of neglect and denial of opportunities, especially in education and employment, have left the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh underdeveloped and backward. This inescapable reality explains the militancy of the movements that surface from time to time for a separate State. The region, which broadly corresponds to the areas that were under the princely state of Hyderabad, continues to fall behind both coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema in development indices. Dams and irrigation projects have helped to some extent, but the rural hinterlands on the Deccan plateau have resisted attempts to boost agricultural productivity and income. Rural unemployment and poverty are rampant. Leaders of the Telangana region, including many from the time of the first major agitation in 1969, have sought to frame these deprivation and development-related issues in the language of regionalism — as wilful, oppressive neglect of an entire region by those in power belonging to other regions. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi, the party behind the current agitation, is of the same mould. Although the TRS fared poorly in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections earlier this year, its president K. Chandrasekhar Rao has now managed to rally support by going on a protest fast. Such is the volatility of Indian politics that the mass mood can change within months, especially when an emotive issue is worked up by clever political footwork. The mishandling of the students' agitation by the police has clearly aided Mr. Rao's cause.

 

Sound political diagnosis must of course factor in the mass mood but cannot be determined by it. In most cases, the real answer to problems of under-development and backwardness lies in big efforts aimed at development and progress. Aside from the unwisdom of breaking up South India's largest State, a separate Telangana will fuel demands for a separate Rayalaseema, for a separate coastal Andhra, and, maybe, even for union territory status for Hyderabad — and there will be no Pradesh left. The problem of uneven regional and intra-State development is one of the major challenges rising India faces but there is little to suggest that smaller States will make for a more even process of development. Surely, regional imbalances can be corrected without recourse to bifurcating or trifurcating a stable and potentially prosperous State — which came into being through historical struggle and sacrifice and showcases the virtues of post-Independence linguistic reorganisation. For a start, the Regional Development Boards could be given more resources and more powers. Successive chief ministers have avoided resourcing the boards with sufficient funds, for fear of creating regional power centres and undermining their own authority. This must necessarily change. The diagnosis is right: Telangana is backward and cries out for rapid development and the regional autonomy needed for this. But the cure pressed by a succession of militant movements — a separate Telangana State — will do serious harm to the patient.

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

LIMITING SALT INTAKE

 

The association between excess salt (sodium) intake and raised blood pressure is well established. According to the World Health Organisation, 62 per cent of all strokes and 49 per cent of heart disease events can be attributed to high blood pressure. Yet, not much medical literature is available to establish a direct link between salt intake and strokes and cardiovascular disease. A recently published meta-analysis of 13 studies involving more than 175,000 individuals across six countries and followed up for 3.5 years to 19 years has thrown up strong evidence of such a link. An increase of 5 g in daily salt intake was found to be associated with a 23 per cent higher risk of stroke and 17 per cent risk of cardiovascular disease. The average intake in many developed countries is above 9 g., as against the WHO recommended (1985) norm of 5 g. While processed food is the dominant source for salt in the developed countries, discretionary use also contributes, in addition to the processed food, to the higher salt intake in India and other developing countries.

 

Several studies, including the latest, have shown that a restriction on salt intake is an important and non-pharmacological public health intervention for preventing and controlling hypertension. A 3 g per day reduction can bring down blood pressure by 2.5/1.4 mm Hg, and a 6 g per day reduction by 5/2.8 mm Hg. Many countries have already taken the lead in cutting down on salt consumption. Finland, Japan and the United Kingdom have mandated reductions in salt content in processed food items. The United States requires mandatory labelling of sodium content. Three-decade-long effort by Finland to reduce sodium levels by about 30 per cent has resulted in 75 per cent reduction in cardiovascular disease in those under 65 years; stroke rates have fallen by more than 70 per cent in Japan. As for India, the 24-30 per cent prevalence of hypertension in urban areas, and 12-14 per cent in rural areas, and the rising trend in the consumption of processed food call for urgent steps to limit salt levels in processed food and to build public awareness on the need to take less salt.

 

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THE HINDU

LEADER PAGE ARTICLES

TWO BJP MEN, SO ALIKE AND SO DIFFERENT

THE LIBERHAN COMMISSION PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A MORE HONEST AND LESS BLACK-AND-WHITE EVALUATION OF ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE AND L.K. ADVANI.

VIDYA SUBRAHMANIAM

 

Critics have panned the Liberhan Commission report on the December 6, 1992 demolition of the Babri Masjid on multiple counts, berating Justice Manmohan Singh Liberhan especially for placing the Teflon Atal Bihari Vajpayee alongside such accomplished disrupters as Vinay Katiyar, Sadhvi Rithambara and Pravin Togadia.

 

It is a measure of the rarefied place politics has accorded the former Prime Minister that on Monday the Congress was forced to jump on the 'save Vajpayee' bandwagon. Speaking in the Lok Sabha, Salman Khursheed, Minister for Minority Affairs, all but regretted Mr. Vajpayee's inclusion in the list of 68 men and women whom the Liberhan report held culpable for the Babri crime. Hardly anyone objected to the presence of Lal Krishna Advani's name on the same list.

 

The judge's conclusions are undoubtedly problematic. Unlike Mr. Advani who was in the thick of pre- and post-demolition action in Ayodhya, Mr. Vajpayee was all along on the sidelines. Yet in conferring this dubious honour on the former Prime Minister, the learned judge unwittingly broke the enduring stereotype of "moderate-Vajpayee" and "hardline Advani," thereby providing an opportunity for a more honest and less black-and-white appraisal of the former Prime Minister and his deputy.

 

The celebration of Mr. Vajpayee has grown inversely with the popularity of his party, reaching hagiographic proportions in the currently adrift Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr. Advani's inability to arrest the BJP's precipitous decline, and the impression he has given of clinging to position, have only added to the Vajpayee persona and aura.

 

The Liberhan Commission report provides the perfect backdrop for re-evaluating the two key figures who, between them, shaped the BJP's fortunes. Under their watch, the party scaled great heights as it plumbed the depths but, more relevantly, it grew from a sidelined introvert to a fearsome bully capable of repeatedly pushing the country to the brink. Analysts have judged Mr. Advani more guilty of divisive politics than Mr. Vajpayee, and not without reason. Mr. Advani was visibly in command whenever the BJP ran amok, as was the case during the Ram rath yatra, which he used to whip up frenzy and which inevitably set the stage for the destruction of the Babri Masjid.

 

By contrast, the former Prime Minister was famously toasted as the "right man in the wrong party." He would be in the background as Mr. Advani rallied and thundered, emerging to take his place at the top once the BJP began to assimilate the limitations of combative politics. Mr. Advani was the chosen one as far as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh was concerned. The RSS distrusted Mr. Vajpayee, and would not easily accept the transition to the Vajpayee era. But as the former Deputy Prime Minister himself records in his book, My Country, My Life, the ideologue was ill-suited to forge electoral partnerships, which alone could place the BJP within the reach of power. Who better to drive the coalition than the "liberal-secular" Mr. Vajpayee?

 

Mr. Vajpayee's accomplishments are many, and it is entirely to his credit that the BJP-led alliance ruled for six years. But his vulnerabilities have been numerous too, though such has been the Vajpayee myth that he could move to the periphery when a wrong was done, and win commendations when a right happened.

 

Indeed, a dispassionate reading of the BJP's history will establish not only Mr. Vajpayee's frequent excursions into "communal" territory but also his failure to frontally confront the RSS despite being uniquely placed to do so. Ironically, and probably for all the wrong reasons, that job was done by Mr. Advani. In a speech delivered at the party's national executive in Chennai on September 18-19, 2005, the former Home Minister showed the RSS its place in a manner that went beyond anything attempted by Mr. Vajpayee and which is unlikely to be equalled by any future BJP leader. Long ago, in August 1979, Mr. Vajpayee did write an article in the Indian Express, critical of the RSS but that was by a compact with the BJP's mentor. The Jana Sangh, which was under pressure to renounce the RSS, needed to save its place in the Janata Party. Mr. Vajpayee's piece was intended to suggest distance between the Jana Sangh members of the Janata Party and the RSS.

 

Mr. Vajpayee was a schoolboy when he penned a poem which went on to attain fame beyond the imagination of a child his age. The lyrics, Hindu tan man, Hindu jeevan, rag, rag mera Hindu parichay (I am Hindu in heart and body, my life is Hindu, Hindu is my only identity), inspired many generations of RSS volunteers and continues to be sung at RSS shakhas. Obviously, the song was justified by the path he took. Mr. Vajpayee joined the RSS and was among the first batch of pracharaks to migrate to the Jana Sangh.

 

In 1983, Mr. Vajpayee hit the headlines for a speech he made during the violent Assam election which was fought on the foreigners' issue, and which saw the massacre of over 2000 mostly Muslim men and women in Nellie. The BJP disowned the speech. However, thanks to the irrepressible Indrajit Gupta, who read out excerpts from it in the Lok Sabha while debating the motion of confidence moved by Mr. Vajpayee on May 28, 1996, we now know what he said. And what Mr. Vajpayee said (about foreigners being chopped into pieces) is not very different from what Varun Gandhi would say a quarter of a century later, winning universal approbation for the violent, divisive imagery he evoked.

 

This was not the only occasion when Mr. Vajpayee slipped into libellous language. He did so as Prime Minister. In the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat pogrom, he famously asked "kisne lagayee aag? (who lit the fire?)," and went on to insinuate that Muslims cannot co-exist with non-Muslims. A hallmark of Mr. Vajpayee's career has been his effortless ability to flip-flop between statesmanlike large-heartedness and pandering to the vile instincts of a raw swayamsevak. He rose to towering heights when he visited the Minar-e-Pakistan, when he pushed for peace with our western neighbour and when he reached out to Kashmiris. No assessment of Mr. Vajpayee can be complete without acknowledging that Kashmir held its first free and fair election under a government headed by him.

 

But then there is also the string of self-indicting statements — while on a visit to Staten Island in September 2000, he shared a platform with the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, and declared himself a swayamsevak first. Three months later, on the anniversary of the Babri Masjid demolition, he described the construction of the Ram temple as "a national sentiment" that awaited fulfilment. It was an impolitic thing to say on a day that commemorated the Masjid's brutal end. In the Lok Sabha, Jaipal Reddy would describe the remark as the "slip of the mask." Yet Mr. Vajpayee got away with it because with characteristic aplomb he would soon make a u-turn — handing out the assurance from distant Kumarakom that any solution to Ayodhya would have to be "peaceful and amicable."

 

What sets Mr. Vajpayee apart from Mr. Advani is the former's instinctive reaction to situations. He could change colour and tone so often and so quickly that critics would tear their hair trying to pin him down to one position. For every comment that Mr. Vajpayee made, there would be a counter comment with an escape clause.

 

Those who know the former Prime Minister insist that he was genuinely stricken by the enormity of December 6, 1992, and wrote out his resignation in atonement. A month into the cataclysmic climax, Mr. Vajpayee himself acknowledged the speculation, saying in witty verse, "jaaye to jaaye kahan? (where do I go?)". And yet in March 2005, the weekly magazine Outlook produced a video recording of a speech he made in Lucknow on December 5, 1992, which captured a relaxed Mr. Vajpayee quite enjoying the prospect of karsevaks gathering in strength at Ayodhya. "Kar seva rok ne ka sawal hi nahi hai (no question of stopping the kar seva)," he asserted, adding that it was natural for people to assemble in large numbers for it.

 

When Mr. Advani tried the somersault, he landed on his nose. This is because he could never multi-task like his senior colleague. Mr. Advani breathed so much fire during the Ayodhya agitation that the embers virtually extinguished his career. His Jinnah Avatar did not work because his audience was not trained to accept deviations from the Ayodhya warrior. Nonetheless, history will record that Mr. Advani went where Mr. Vajpayee dared not go. Asked to resign for the Jinnah adventure, Mr. Advani lambasted the RSS: "But lately an impression has gained ground that no political or organisation decision can be taken without the consent of the RSS functionaries. This perception, we hold, will do no good either to the party [BJP] or the RSS…"

 

Mr. Vajpayee and Mr. Advani come from the same stock and subscribe to a common divisive worldview. Except one was clever enough to appear different and the other tried but failed.

 

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THE HINDU

HISTORIC CASE, FRESH UNCERTAINTIES

SEVENTEEN JUDGES OF THE SUPREME COURT HAVE TAKEN UP PETITIONS AGAINST THE NATIONAL RECONCILIATION ORDINANCE IN PAKISTAN.

NIRUPAMA SUBRAMANIAN

 

It is billed as one of Pakistan's most historic cases. For no other case has the Supreme Court put together all its judges for the hearing.

 

The possible outcome could have damaging consequences for the political future of President Asif Ali Zardari and many others in the Pakistan People's Party-led government.

 

Fresh uncertainties loomed over Pakistan as 17 judges of the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary, on Monday took up petitions against the National Reconciliation Ordinance.

 

The petitions are asking that the infamous Musharraf-era decree that helped President Zardari stand for office by freeing him from corruption cases be struck down as unconstitutional and void ab initio — invalid from the beginning — as it is discriminatory and violates the fundamental right of equality before the law.

 

The main petitioner, Mubbasher Hassan, a former leader of the PPP and finance minister in Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's cabinet, contends that the Supreme Court's ruling has the potential to change the country's future for the better. His petition dates back to October 2007. "It is not about unseating anyone. This is not a political petition. My petition has been pending from before Zardari's presidency. We are fighting the NRO because it goes against the Constitution and the rule of law," Dr. Hassan said.

 

In an early surprise and reflecting the difficulties of the government in this case, the Acting Attorney-General, Shah Khawar, made a statement in court saying he was under instruction from the government that it would not defend the law.

 

Government defence

 

A government defence of the NRO would have been difficult considering it pulled back from a vote on the law in parliament last month. But legal circles are more than astonished at the decision, considering the NRO was finalised after several rounds of talks between emissaries of former President Pervez Musharraf and the late PPP leader, Benazir Bhutto, and was later justified by the party as a vital factor in helping the transition to democracy.

 

"In my view, by this decision, the government has encouraged the full court to strike down the law," said Ahmed Bilal Soofi, a Supreme Court lawyer and commentator on legal affairs.

 

From now on, said Mr. Soofi, the question before the court was not so much if the NRO was ultra vires — the government having virtually conceded that — but more the consequences for different players in Pakistan's political scene.

 

The scenario is complex. The NRO itself lapsed on November 28, following the government's decision not to put the controversial and divisive decree to vote in the National Assembly after it became evident that its own coalition partners would not support it.

 

According to some legal experts, the cases against more than 8,000 people who benefited by NRO were automatically revived on the day the NRO lapsed. Among the beneficiaries are President Zardari, Interior Minister Rehman Malik and several former bureaucrats, some whom are now in the president's inner circle.

 

President Zardari claims presidential immunity from prosecution. In any case, it is the government that has to reopen the cases, something it may be loathe to do as it puts some of its prominent leaders at risk.

 

But with the involvement of the Supreme Court in the matter, the picture may change substantially. If the court were to strike down the NRO, those who benefited from this law would stand to lose those benefits.

 

According to legal experts, there is a possibility that instead of leaving it to the government, the court may order the reopening of the cases.

 

The ruling could also pave the way for further petitions by those interested in seeing Mr. Zardari tried asking the court to interpret the limits of presidential immunity.

 

It could also open the gates for petitions challenging the eligibility of Mr. Zardari as a candidate in the 2008 presidential elections.

 

The court has asked the government to place on record last month's parliamentary debate on the NRO to see for itself why "342 elected representatives did not give their support" to this law. It also asked the anti-corruption National Accountability Bureau, to furnish it with an authentic list of beneficiaries.

 

It is expected to pronounce a verdict later this week. "The decision of the court in this case, whatever it is, will be momentous," said Dr. Hassan.

 

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THE HINDU

NITROUS OXIDE CONCERNS CLOUD FUTURE OF BIOFUELS

EUROPEAN SCIENTISTS CAST DOUBT ON WHETHER OIL ALTERNATIVES CAN EVER BE SUSTAINABLY PRODUCED IN SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES.

ALOK JHA

 

Scientists at the European commission have cast doubt on whether biofuels could ever be produced sustainably in significant quantities, dealing a blow to the aviation industry, which sees such fuel as a key way to reduce its emissions.

 

The researchers argue that the greenhouse gases emitted in making biofuel may well negate most of the carbon dioxide savings made by replacing fossil fuels.

 

Of particular concern is the uncertainty over emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide.

 

The road transport industry is also keen to increase the use of biofuels, and an EU directive last year requires 10% of all road transport fuel to come from plants by 2020. Theoretically the fuels are carbon-neutral: when burned they only release the carbon dioxide they absorbed while the plants were growing.

 

270 times more potent

 

Campaigners argue biofuels are not as sustainable as they seem and say more biofuels would mean the destruction of virgin forests - and the release of their stored carbon - to create agricultural land.

 

Heinz Ossenbrink, of the EC's Institute of Energy (IoE), said research carried out by EU-funded scientists increasingly pointed to a long-term problem for large-scale biofuels use, namely the emissions of nitrous oxide. This is about 270 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and is released through use of fertilisers to grow biofuel crops. "Some of the older studies don't take that into account," he said. "We have now come to less positive values for biofuels."

 

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does consider the production of nitrous oxide when deciding on the sustainibility of particular biofuels, but errors in its calculations are known to be large.

 

"That's because there's such a huge local variation - [emissions] could double from one end of the field to the other and hundreds of times between the fields in the same country and thousands of times around the world," said Robert Edwards, of the renewable energies unit at the IoE.

 

 © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2009

 

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THE HINDU

POLLUTION FEARS STIR BACKLASH ON NATURAL GAS BOOM

A POSSIBLE LINK BETWEEN HYDRAULIC FRACTURING AND POLLUTION OF GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES CAUSES CONCERN.

JAD MOUAWAD AND CLIFFORD KRAUSS

 

• Environmental groups contend that governments have been slow to react and are not looking hard for contamination
• Gas companies use at least 260 types of chemicals, many of them toxic, during the hydraulic fracturing process

 

Victoria Switzer dreamed of a peaceful retirement. Instead, she is coping with a big hassle after a nearby natural gas well contaminated her family's drinking water with high levels of methane.

 

Through no design of hers, Switzer has joined a rising chorus of voices sceptical of the nation's latest energy push.

 

"It's been 'drill, baby, drill' out here in Dimock [Pennsylvania]," Switzer said bitterly. "There is no stopping this train."

 

Across vast regions of the country, gas companies are using a technology called hydraulic fracturing — fracking — to produce natural gas from previously untapped beds of shale. The push has been so successful that the country's potential gas reserves jumped by 35 per cent in two years. The new supplies have driven down natural gas prices for consumers and might help the global environment by allowing more production of electricity from natural gas, which emits fewer global warming emissions than coal.

 

What the drilling push will do to local environments is another matter.

 

The drilling boom is raising concern in many parts of the country, and the reaction is creating political obstacles for the gas industry. Hazards like methane contamination of drinking water wells, long known in regions where gas production was common, are spreading to populous areas that have little history of coping with such risks, but happen to sit atop shale beds.

 

And a more worrisome possibility has come to light. A string of incidents in places like Wyoming and Pennsylvania in recent years has pointed to a possible link between hydraulic fracturing and pollution of groundwater supplies. In the worst case, such pollution could damage crucial supplies of water used for drinking and agriculture.

 

So far, the evidence of groundwater pollution is thin. Environmental groups contend that is because governments have been slow to react to the drilling boom and are not looking hard for contamination. Gas companies acknowledge the validity of some concerns, but they claim that their technology is fundamentally safe.

 

The debate is becoming more urgent as gas companies move closer to more populated areas, especially in the Northeast, where millions of people are likely to find themselves living near drilling operations in coming years.

 

"To be able to scale up our drilling, clearly we have to be in sync with people's concerns about water," said Aubrey K. McClendon, chairman and chief executive of Chesapeake Energy Corp., a leading gas company. "It's our biggest challenge."

 

Hydraulic fracturing consists of injecting huge volumes of water at high pressure to break shale rocks and allow natural gas to flow out more easily. The water is mixed with sand, chemicals and gels to lubricate the process and help keep the rocks open. After refining the technique in western states in recent years, gas companies are moving to tap the nation's largest shale structure, the Marcellus shale, which stretches from Virginia to New York.

 

"It's a very reliable, safe, American source of energy,: said John Richels, president of Devon Energy Corp.

 

Environmental activists, however, say there is at least scattered evidence that fracturing operations can pose risks to groundwater sources, particularly when mistakes are made in drilling. They have also questioned how some companies deal with the wastewater produced by their operations, warning that liquids laced with chemicals and salt from drilling can overload public sewage treatment plants or pollute surface waters.

 

Deborah Goldberg, a lawyer for the non-profit environmental group Earthjustice who is fighting to toughen Pennsylvania's discharge rules, said the state "is facing enormous pressure from gas drillers, who are generating contaminated water faster than the state's treatment plants can handle it."

 

Long-term contamination

 

According to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, which is going through a public review of its new rules on hydraulic fracturing, gas companies use at least 260 types of chemicals, many of them toxic, like benzene. These chemicals tend to remain in the ground once the fracturing has been completed, raising fears about long-term contamination.

 

The most immediate hazard from the national drilling bonanza, it is clear, involves contamination of residential drinking water wells by natural gas. In Bainbridge, Ohio, an improperly drilled well contaminated groundwater in 2007, including the water source for the township's police station, according to a complaint filed this year. After building to high pressures, gas migrated through underground faults, and blew up one house.

 

In Dimock, 13 water wells, including that of Switzer, were contaminated by natural gas. One of the wells blew up.

 

Under prodding, environmental regulators are stepping up the search for groundwater contamination. In Pavilion, Wyo., for instance, the Environmental Protection Agency has begun an investigation into contamination of several drinking water wells.

 

Luke Chavez, an EPA investigator, said that traces of methane and 2-butoxyethanol phosphate, a foaming agent, had been found in several wells near an area where EnCana Corp., a Canadian gas company, had used hydraulic fracturing in recent years. He said the compounds could have come from cleaning products or oil and gas production, but "it tells us something is happening here that shouldn't be here."

 

An EnCana spokesman, Doug Hock, said the company was "committed to working with EPA to resolve this issue." But he added, "at this point, no specific connection has been made between the tentatively identified compounds and oil and gas activities."

 

In a 2004 study, the EPA decided that hydraulic fracturing was essentially harmless. Critics said the analysis was politically motivated, but it was cited the following year when the Republican-led Congress removed hydraulic fracturing from any regulation under the Safe Drinking Water Act.

 

The current Democratic Congress recently enacted a law requiring the EPA to review the study. Lawmakers from Colorado and New York have also introduced legislation to end the water act exemption and require gas companies to disclose all chemicals used in fracturing operations. The agency has begun an analysis of whether hydraulic fracturing requires tighter federal regulation.

 

"EPA is reviewing available information to determine whether hydraulic fracturing fluids have contaminated drinking water and has dedicated resources to properly studying this issue," the agency said in a statement.

 

The political situation has put the gas companies on the defensive. "It's not going to stop us, but we do have to solve the problem in a prudent manner," said Rodney L. Waller, a senior vice-president at Range Resources Corp., a major gas producer in the Marcellus shale.

 

Partly in response to opposition it has encountered in New York, Chesapeake recently indicated that it would not drill in the New York City watershed, a region that supplies drinking water to nearly 10 million people.

 

Schlumberger, a service company that performs fracturing operations on behalf of gas companies, said it was working on "green" fracturing fluids, including safer substitutes for hazardous chemicals. In the Barnett shale gas field in Texas, Devon Energy and Chesapeake are trying various treatment techniques for disposing of contaminated drilling water. Gas executives hope that wider use of such techniques will damp public opposition in some regions. Several companies are starting a joint water treatment effort in Pennsylvania in the next few weeks. Still, around Dimock, the gas boom is viewed with mixed feelings. Many public officials support drilling. Governor Edward G. Rendell has called the surge "a great boon" to Pennsylvania. Many people have leased their land here and are collecting royalty checks from gas production.

 

The hills around Dimock have been bulldozed to clear the ground for dozens of drilling pads the size of football fields. Eighteen-wheelers thunder down narrow country roads, kicking up dust and fumes. Recently, a helicopter buzzed overhead while dangling heavy cables used for seismic tests.

 

In September, Cabot Oil and Gas Corp., a Houston energy company, was required to suspend its fracturing operations for three weeks after causing three spills in the course of nine days. Cabot, which was fined $56,650 by the state, said the spills consisted mainly of water, with only 0.5 per cent chemicals. This month, Cabot was fined an additional $120,000 by Pennsylvania for the contamination of homeowners' wells.

 

Companies' stand

 

A company spokesman, Kenneth S. Komoroski, said it was too early to blame hydraulic fracturing — the technology at the heart of the boom — for pollution of water wells. He said Cabot was still investigating the causes of last January's contamination incidents.

 

"None of the issues in Dimock have anything to do with hydraulic fracturing," he said.

 

The fines were little consolation to Switzer, the woman who can no longer draw drinking water from her well.

 

After moving here in 2005, she sold drilling rights on her property for a mere $180 after, as she recalled it, a gas company representative convinced her only one well might be drilled. In fact, no well was drilled, but three were on surrounding properties. Her well was contaminated at the beginning of the year after gas leaked from a well drilled by Cabot.

 

Her family now uses bottled water supplied by Cabot every week. She fears that if she tried to sell her home, which sits in the middle of a drilling zone, no one would buy it.

"Can you imagine the ad? 'Beautiful new home. Bring your own water,'" Switzer said. "We're like a dead zone here."

 

 © 2009 The New York Times News Service

 

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THE HINDU

THE CLIMATE DENIAL INDUSTRY SEEKS TO DUPE THE PUBLIC. IT'S WORKING

THINK ENVIRONMENTALISTS ARE STOOGES? YOU'RE THE UNWITTING RECRUIT OF A HUGELY POWERFUL OIL LOBBY.

GEORGE MONBIOT

 

• The evidence of man-made global warming is unequivocal
• People behind climate denial campaigns know that their claims are untrue

 

When you survey the trail of wreckage left by the climate emails crisis, three things become clear. The first is the tendency of those who claim to be the champions of climate science to minimise their importance. Those who have most to lose if the science is wrong have perversely sought to justify the secretive and chummy ethos that some of the emails reveal. If science is not transparent and accountable, it's not science.

 

I believe that all supporting data, codes and programmes should be made available as soon as an article is published in a peer-reviewed journal. That anyone should have to lodge a freedom of information request to obtain them is wrong. That the request should be turned down is worse. That a scientist suggests deleting material that might be covered by that request is unjustifiable. Everyone who values the scientific process should demand complete transparency, across all branches of science.

 

The second observation is the tendency of those who don't give a fig about science to maximise their importance. The denial industry, which has no interest in establishing the truth about global warming, insists that these emails, which concern three or four scientists and just one or two lines of evidence, destroy the entire canon of climate science.

 

Even if you were to exclude every line of evidence that could possibly be disputed — the proxy records, the computer models, the complex science of clouds and ocean currents — the evidence for man-made global warming would still be unequivocal. You can see it in the measured temperature record, which goes back to 1850; in the shrinkage of glaciers and the thinning of sea ice; in the responses of wild animals and plants and the rapidly changing crop zones.

 

No other explanation for these shifts makes sense. Solar cycles have been out of synch with the temperature record for 40 years. The Milankovic cycle, which describes variations in the Earth's orbit, doesn't explain it either. But the warming trend is closely correlated with the accumulation of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. The impact of these gases can be demonstrated in the laboratory. To assert that they do not have the same effect in the atmosphere, a novel and radical theory would be required. No such theory exists. The science is not fixed - no science ever is - but it is as firm as science can be. The evidence for man-made global warming remains as strong as the evidence linking smoking to lung cancer or HIV to AIDS.

 

The third observation is the contrast between the global scandal these emails have provoked and the muted response to 20 years of revelations about the propaganda planted by fossil fuel companies. I have placed on the Guardian's website four case studies, each of which provides a shocking example of how the denial industry works.

 

Two of them are drawn from Climate Cover-Up, the fascinating, funny and beautifully written new book by James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. If every allegation it contained could not be traced back to leaked documents (I have checked all the sources), their findings would be unbelievable. Nothing exposed by the hacking of the Climatic Research Unit's server is one tenth as bad as the least of these revelations.

 

PLANTED BY PR COMPANIES

When I use the term denial industry, I'm referring to those who are paid to say that man-made global warming isn't happening. The great majority of people who believe this have not been paid: they have been duped. Reading Climate Cover-Up, you keep stumbling across familiar phrases and concepts which you can see every day on the comment threads. The book shows that these memes were planted by PR companies and hired experts.

 

The first case study I've posted reveals how a coalition of U.S. coal companies sought to persuade people that the science is uncertain. It listed the two social groups it was trying to reach — "Target 1: Older, less educated males"; "Target 2: Younger, lower income women" — and the methods by which it would reach them. One of its findings was that "members of the public feel more confident expressing opinions on others' motivations and tactics than they do expressing opinions on scientific issues."

 

Remember this the next time you hear people claiming that climate scientists are only in it for the money, or that environmentalists are trying to create a communist world government: these ideas were devised and broadcast by energy companies. The people who inform me, apparently without irony, that "your article is an ad hominem attack, you four-eyed, big-nosed, commie sack of shit," or "you scaremongers will destroy the entire world economy and take us back to the Stone Age," are the unwitting recruits of campaigns they have never heard of.

 

The second case study reveals how Dr. Patrick Michaels, one of a handful of climate change deniers with a qualification in climate science, has been lavishly paid by companies seeking to protect their profits from burning coal. As far as I can discover, none of the media outlets who use him as a commentator - including the Guardian — has disclosed this interest at the time of his appearance. Michaels is one of many people commenting on climate change who presents himself as an independent expert while being secretly paid for his services by fossil fuel companies.

 

The third example shows how a list published by the Heartland Institute (which has been sponsored by oil company Exxon) of 500 scientists "whose research contradicts man-made global warming scares" turns out to be nothing of the kind: as soon as these scientists found out what the institute was saying about them, many angrily demanded that their names be removed. Twenty months later, they are still on the list. The fourth example shows how, during the Bush presidency, White House officials worked with oil companies to remove regulators they didn't like and to doctor official documents about climate change.

 

In Climate Cover-Up, in Ross Gelbspan's books The Heat is On and Boiling Point, in my book Heat, and on the websites DeSmogBlog.com and exxonsecrets.org, you can find dozens of such examples. Together they expose a systematic, well-funded campaign to con the public. To judge by the comments you can read on the Guardian's website, it has worked.

 

But people behind these campaigns know that their claims are untrue. One of the biggest was run by the Global Climate Coalition, which represented ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, the American Petroleum Institute and several big motor manufacturers. In 1995 the coalition's own scientists reported that "the scientific basis for the greenhouse effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well-established and cannot be denied". The coalition hid this finding from the public, and spent millions of dollars seeking to persuade people that the opposite was true. These people haven't fooled themselves, but they might have fooled you. Who, among those of you who claim that climate scientists are liars and environmentalists are stooges, has thought it through for yourself?

 

© Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2009

 

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DNA

EDITORIAL

ONE MORE LINK

 

The connections between Pakistan and the November 26, 2008 attacks on Mumbai are becoming clearer and clearer with each passing day. The fact that a United States court has charged the Lashkar-e-Taiba operative David Headley aka Daood Gilani with criminal conspiracy in the 26/11 attacks is one more in a series of irrefutable pieces of evidence presented to Pakistan. While Pakistan has consistently tried to mock, denigrate or discredit the evidence which India presented to it, this charge comes from its chief benefactor, the United States. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested Headley in October and since then it has become clear that he was the chief reconnaissance agent for the LeT in India and worked out the sites and how the attack would proceed.

The involvement of Pakistani terror groups in attacks across the world is now accepted and established — 9/11 set that process in motion and denials by subsequent Pakistani administrations have been exposed as lies. But it took the world time to accept India's contention that Pakistan-based terror groups were attacking it. The 26/11 attacks established the Pakistan connection too firmly for any possibility of denial. The Headley arrest by the FBI was one more reaffirmation of India's position.

But there are worrying factors about the role which Headley played and the ease with which he made friends and influenced people in India. The finger points straight at the loopholes in our intelligence-gathering networks. The 26/11 attacks had already exposed the failures of our intelligence agencies and the Headley case re-emphasised those lapses.

This is where India has to take action to safeguard itself. This is apart from the consistent diplomatic pressure on the world to acknowledge Pakistan's role and our own efforts to demand justice from our western neighbour.

Headley's connections to a retired Pakistani army major  points once more to the disturbing links between the Pakistani military and terrorist groups. The demon once aimed at India has turned around and is attacking it. The anarchy, rebellion and chaos in its north western provinces and the almost daily bomb blasts in other parts of the country have put Pakistan in an unenviable and almost impossible situation. The onus here is on the US to ensure that Pakistan not just assist it in its endeavour to attack terrorist camps but also to dismantle the structure that it had put up to destabilise India. The charging of Headley is only one small step.

 

 

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DNA

EDITORIAL

BEAR HUG

 

The Russians have never lost interest in India, except for a few years during the Yeltsin period in the 1990s. During the Putin years from 1999 onwards, Russia had steadily focused on reviving and strengthening bilateral ties, with an emphasis on defence purchases. There has, however, been a change in the Indian position. New Delhi-Washington got closer to each other in the last decade, on political, economic and strategic levels.

It meant in plain terms that in contrast to the Cold War era, when the former Soviet Union was the strategic partner in world affairs, the situation changed drastically for Russia and radically for India. Russia had almost become a Third World country and India moved up more than a few notches in the new world scenario's pecking order. Yet India has been painfully aware that it still needs its old friends because the new world order is still unclear.

What has remained critical in India-Russia ties is defence cooperation. There is a certain comfort level in this long-term relationship and the armed forces are all for it, whether it is the Sukhoi fighter jets or battle tanks. The other key area is nuclear power cooperation.

Prime minister Mamnmohan Singh's Moscow visit has confirmed broadly the New Delhi-Moscow ties along these specific lines. The major pacts signed on the occasion of the annual India-Russia summit — held alternately in the two capitals — on Monday reflect this. There has been a 10-year defence cooperation pact, an after-sales support system agreement, and a nuclear power deal agreement. It is not a friction-free engagement. If the Russians are grudgingly aware that India is shopping elsewhere, the Indians are unhappy that the Russians are faltering on their commitments.

The aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov is a good example of this. Russia revised the purchase price and did not keep to schedules. India is aware however that Russia is still the only country which is willing to share strategic defence systems.

The India-Russia connection is anchored in hard reality. Both sides are aware that they can be of help to each other. Whatever the pro-US bias of the Singh government, there is an awareness in policy circles in New Delhi that the Russian window is useful for global cross-ventilation. It is a signal to the West that India's foreign policy is based on the assumption of a multi-polar world.

 

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DNA

TOO HASTY AN EXIT

YOGI AGGARWAL 

 

The most intriguing part of US president Barack Obama's battle plan for Afghanistan is the announcement of beginning a troop withdrawal 18 months down the line so that the Afghan people "will ultimately be responsible for their own country". Despite an initial surge of an additional 30,000 American troops this announcement flies in the face of logic.

If you want to defang the Taliban you don't announce that you'll leave before the job is done.

He may have said that keeping in mind the opposition within the Democratic Party to a long haul in Afghanistan. But that is exactly the kind of commitment that is necessary if Afghanistan is not to be abandoned once again. This happened in 1989 after the mujahedeen vanquished the Soviet army with American help, and the Americans stopped all military and civilian aid, leading to chaos and eventually to the Taliban taking over.

After 9/11 the US and NATO sent in their troops in pursuit of Osama bin Laden. Once he escaped the American dragnet later that year, they lost interest and concentrated on Iraq, giving the Taliban a chance to regroup and return. It is unreasonable to expect that not being able to defeat the insurgents after eight years, in just another 18 months the US and NATO will turn the tide against them. 

The fresh American troops are to be largely concentrated in the Helmand province, the centre of the poppy cultivation, a strong Taliban base and just north of Quetta. This is of concern to Pakistan, fighting the Taliban extremists in the Swat and Waziristan regions of the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) of the Pashtun or Pathan populated North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The Pakistanis feel that the increased US pressure will push the Taliban in the area surrounding Helmand into Baluchistan, opening another front for the Pakistani army to tackle the Taliban. 

Part of the American strategy is to use drone bombs to target its adversaries. Remotely controlled halfway round the world from CIA headquarters in Langley, they can hover above a suspected Taliban stronghold beaming pictures until instructed to explode. Their use inflames public opinion in Pakistan because of high civilian deaths.

With Obama announcing the withdrawal, it is not in the interest of the Pakistani army to take on the Taliban, knowing that they are likely to be in power in Afghanistan two years hence. Pakistan has had an ambivalent relationship with them, encouraging them as a friendly force on their western flank. They only began taking them on in parts of NWFP once a series of bomb blasts orchestrated by the Taliban in Peshawar and Rawalpindi took the battle home. 

The British-imposed Durand line artificially divides the 15 million ethnic Pathans in Afghanistan from the 24 million in NWFP in Pakistan. They share kinship, a common language and culture and are indistinguishable from each other. Pakistani policy has to consider what happens to the Pathans in Afghanistan since it raises hackles in the NWFP, just as the fate of Tamils in Sri Lanka does in Tamil Nadu.

A likely American failure of nerve in Afghanistan brings the vortex of terrorist politics closer home to us. A Taliban comeback in that country will lead to the Pakistani army's adjustment with them and a radicalising of sub-continental politics. It also presents the frightening possibility of the al Qaeda managing to get its hands on part of the nuclear arsenal. 

Pervez Musharraf, former president of Pakistan, put it bluntly in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal. The Pashtuns, he argued, were marginalised after 9/11, pushing them into the Taliban's arms. "The exit strategy cannot be time related… We must eliminate al Qaeda, dominate the Taliban… raising additional Afghan troops with significant Pashtun representation."

Whatever the impact of American troops, it must be understood that Pakistan is the frontline state taking the major burden. And despite its troops not being as well equipped, it is a well-trained army, speaking the language and familiar with the culture. They are also willing to take higher losses than the US or NATO.

The Americans are not even willing for a much needed "nation-building project of up to a decade".  Obama rejected this in his December 3 speech because "it sets goals that are beyond what we need to achieve to secure our interests." Yet this is just what is needed.

What Pakistan seeks is a larger influence in Kabul. To its frustration, India has made excellent inroads by its superb developmental work. Pakistan is too closely identified with arming the Taliban. It needs to be helped to get into civilian programmes, even if financed by the US. That should help rebuild its image, the "partnership with Pakistan" being so important for successfully taming the Taliban.

 

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DNA

UK'S ARROGANCE OF POWERLESSNESS

VENKATESAN VEMBU 

 

Nothing concentrates the mind so wonderfully as the prospect of a hanging in the morning.

 

It's no wonder, therefore, that policymakers in Britain are sounding particularly lucid, faced as they are with an economy that's just one dark night away from the prospect of careening into a public debt crisis. As they scramble to raise revenues and scale back expenses to pay off debts, they're exploring a range of proposals — from imposing a levy on bankers' bonuses to cutting up to 1 million public sector jobs. Most of these measures are targeted at the domestic economy and polity, and have little bearing on the wider world. 

But in its desperation to balance its books through cost-cutting, the cash-strapped UK government is looking farther afield and in so doing is stepping on India's toes. For instance, at the yearly round of negotiations under way to finance the United Nation's budget, diplomats from the UK are pushing for emerging economic powers, including India, to contribute more. 

For sheer audacity, that suggestion is hard to top. Ponder over this: one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, which secured that place solely on the strength of its colonial plunder of its erstwhile colonies (including India), now wants India, whose case for a seat at the high table has been systematically scuttled, to foot a larger share of the bill for the UN to do as the five 'super' members bid it! 

The sentiment underlying that suggestion reflects a throwback to a time when the UK's Industrial Revolution-driven prosperity and its colonial wars were underwritten by remittances from its colonies, particularly from India, the 'Jewel in the Crown.' The economically enfeebled empire of the 21st century feels overly burdened by the weight of 'global responsibility' and wants to pass the tab along, but not the privileges that come with it. 

It would be tempting to dismiss this as the 'arrogance of power', except that today's UK isn't particularly powerful. Japan and Germany, the losers in the War that shaped the world power structure, are today economically bigger than the UK, even though they're not permanent members of the Security Council. In any case, even the UK's 'super member' status hasn't earned it much by way of privilege. 

Still, permanent membership of the UN Security Council retains 'vanity trophy' value for many aspiring states, including Japan, Germany, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. So analysts at Lowy Institute in Australia recently suggested (half in jest) that a bankrupt UK could perhaps raise money to pay off its debts by 'auctioning' or leasing its permanent membership! And since Article 28 of the UN Charter even provides for Security Council members to "be represented by… some other specially designated representative," there might be a window of opportunity for the UK to monetise its seat and for an aspiring power to secure admittance to that exalted club. 

But the unvarnished truth is that the power (including veto power) that comes with permanent membership has more often been invoked to 'legitimise' unilateral actions (such as the US war on Iraq), cover for friends (as China did for genocidal Sudan or the US did for Israel) or strike deals. And, as we've seen with the US and the UK, it doesn't offer any immunity from crippling economic enfeeblement that acts as a drag on their standing in the world. So, really, who needs it?

If, however, the UK — the modern-day Atlas groaning under the weight of the world — wants to unburden itself, it could do one thing: it could cede its permanent membership, with all its rights and responsibilities, to India — for free. We'll be gracious and, as a concession to its economic plight, not ask it to contribute any more than it does to the UN budget. We'll even consider it sufficient reparation for all those years of colonial plunder.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

A DEAL THAT INDIA WANTED

RUSSIA ENDS NUCLEAR FUEL SUPPLY WORRIES

 

It is heartening that India's efforts for assured fuel supply to its nuclear reactors have succeeded with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signing a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on Monday. Russia has agreed to the inclusion of a clause guaranteeing that India will continue to get uninterrupted nuclear fuel supply even after the India-Russia deal is called off in any eventuality. The equipment and technology transferred to India also will remain unaffected. This is contrary to the 123 Agreement with the US, which clearly says that the US will stop not only the uranium supply to the nuclear reactors exported to India, but also take back everything, including the reactors, in case India goes in for a fresh nuclear test. Those involved in the negotiations with the US argue that Washington is unlikely to go to such an extent owing to the deepening Indo-US economic ties, but the sceptics refuse to agree. They rightly point out that the punitive clause in the 123 Agreement hangs over our head as the proverbial Damocles' sword.

 

The deal with Russia is a "major step forward", as Dr Manmohan Singh elaborated. What Russia has agreed to offer is not there even in the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement reached with France. The Russian President has emphasised that the G8 Group resolution, restricting the sale of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies to non-NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) countries, "does not change anything in our cooperation." Russia is expected to supply 20 reactors to India, which will enhance the country's nuclear power generation capacity considerably. The Russian gesture can have its impact on the arrangement with the US and France because of nuclear business compulsions. In any case, Russia has stolen a march over the US and France.

 

Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to Moscow has been a path-breaking one from another angle. India and Russia are believed to have sorted out the pricing issue related to the acquisition of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier. Though no agreement has been signed at this stage, the removal of the irritant is significant. The relations between the two countries, having commonality of views on most of the global issues, are bound to scale new heights in the days to come. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

UNMASKING TERROR LINKS

CHARGES MADE IN A US COURT HAVE LESSONS FOR INDIA

 

The chilling details revealed in a Chicago court regarding David Coleman Headley's involvement in the 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai underscore the global nature of contemporary terror and the sophistication acquired by terror groups in executing their diabolical plans from foreign lands. The arrest of Headly, his Pakistani-Canadian co-conspirator Tahawwur Hussain Rana and two more men of Pakistani origin in Italy had earlier unmasked the extensive terror links. Prosecutors in the US have now officially charged Headley with conducting surveillance of targets in Mumbai for over two years and with supplying videotapes to terror groups based in Pakistan. It has also been confirmed that the plan to attack Mumbai was hatched several years before it was finally executed. Headley, an American citizen of Pakistani origin, was commissioned to do the surveillance in 2005; he changed his name from Dawood Gilani to David Headley in 2006, the year when he also opened an office in Mumbai. During his two-year long stay in Mumbai, he visited Pakistan no less than five times without apparently arousing any suspicion in the mind of Indian Immigration or Intelligence officials.

Even more alarming is the disclosure that Headley was reporting to a retired Major of the Pakistani Army, identified as Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, who acted as the conduit and communicator. The Chicago court has now been informed that the Pakistani army officer had even escorted Headley to the FATA region of Pakistan to meet Ilyas Kashmiri of HuJI to prepare for another terror attack in Denmark. India's decision to involve the US FBI in the investigation, soon after the Mumbai attack, was criticised in some quarters. But developments this week would seem to have vindicated that stand. With overwhelming evidence gathered by investigators about the involvement of another prominent Pakistani, who is being identified by US prosecutors only as "A" , it is hoped that Pakistan would cooperate with India and the US to bring all the players to book.

 

The ease with which Headley obtained visa to travel to India and set up shop in Mumbai has already caused considerable concern. The disclosure that he changed his name from Dawood Gilani to David Headley in 2006, which was overlooked or missed by the Indian establishment, is bound to cause even more concern. The more dramatic or damaging information would obviously have been kept secret. But with every country having a stake in putting an end to terror, global cooperation and intelligence-sharing must improve to give a fighting chance to peace.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

LUDHIANA UNREST

SOCIO-ECONOMIC REASONS ADDED FUEL TO FIRE

 

Now that the Ludhiana storm has abated somewhat, it is time to take a dispassionate look at the reasons behind the outpouring of migrants' anger. Fortunately, there was no local-versus-outsider angle to it, as is the case in Maharashtra thanks to the Shiv Sena and the MNS. But the abominable socio-economic conditions in which the migrant workers live in Ludhiana contributed largely to the eruption. The industrial town is home to some of the richest persons in the region. But it also has a large populace of migrant labour which barely ekes out a living. This contrast can magnify the feeling of deprivation anywhere. What made matters worse was that the labourers were deprived of their meagre earnings by gangs of robbers time and again. The police tended to look the other way, fanning the grouse of the hapless labourers. When the policemen allegedly misbehaved with those who went to lodge a complaint, instead of nabbing the culprits, the matter came to a head. Protesters damaged private and public vehicles, and disrupted road and rail traffic.

 

As if that was not enough, allowing the head of a controversial dera to hold a congregation in the city added fuel to the fire. Members of some Sikh organisations launched violent protests in some parts of the city.The district administration in view of the violence cancelled permission for the second day of the congregation, besides imposing curfew in the city as a preventive and precautionary measure. This incident had nothing to do with the protests by the migrants, but the two got interlinked because this particular dera has a large number of followers among the labourers.

 

More than finding out who is right and who is wrong, it is more important to maintain the peace somehow. That will be possible only if all political parties refrain from playing the communal card at the drop of a hat. Punjab has suffered incalculable damage because of such polarisation during the terrorism days. All attempts should be made to ensure that there is no repetition. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

THE OBAMA STRATEGY

TIME FOR INDIA-US COUNTER-TERRORISM INITIATIVE

BY K. SUBRAHMANYAM

 

In the new Af-Pak strategy announced by President Obama on December 1, most of the attention of both US and international strategists has been focused on his fixing a date for beginning the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan after the surge to be effected in the spring and summer of 2010. That led to the general conclusion that if the Taliban were to lie low till after the American withdrawal is completed they will be able to reoccupy Afghanistan. Consequently, the strategy was ridiculed, overlooking the fact that the national security team of the US President had worked on it for weeks and the President himself had spent days deliberating it.

 

It should have been noticed that in his speech, while drawing attention to the continuing threat posed to the US by the terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, emphasising the need for a common strategy on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, making a reference to the inability of tackling the situation in Afghanistan without doing the same in Pakistan and, above all, emphasising the offer of long-term partnership with Pakistan, the President was silent on the strategy to be adopted to fight the terrorist groups which have safe havens in Pakistan. This should have alerted strategic commentators that the major part of the strategy relating to Pakistan had been deliberately withheld by the President because of Pakistani sensitivities.

 

The superficial commentaries on the Obama strategy reminded one of the strategic forecasts in India just before the First Gulf War when it was confidently predicted that there would be an unacceptable stream of body bags coming home to the US and Saddam Hussein's Republican Guards armoured divisions would offer very stiff resistance to US forces. This did not happen that way. In October 2001 our commentators again predicted that US operations in Afghanistan would meet the same results as the Soviet operations in that country in the eighties. Again they were proved wrong. That did not deter them from predicting a long and bitter resistance invading US forces by the Iraqi army in 2003.The Iraqi army was defeated in a few days though the US leadership committed fundamental mistakes in handling post-war Iraq. Once again the same mindset does not differentiate between the political mistakes committed by the Bush administration and permissiveness extended to Musharraf and the military strategy now being worked out.

 

While political mistakes may yet take place in handling the situation in the Af-Pak area, it is necessary to be realistic about the military dimensions of the proposed operations. They are likely to have serious implications for India. That should have been the primary concern of our strategic commentators.

 

President Obama is reported to have decided on a rapid surge of 30,000 additional troops and this is to be completed by the beginning of summer. If so, there has to be a massive logistic support operation that should be undertaken simultaneously. Will it be through Pakistan running the risks of disruptive attacks by the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban against whom the build-up is aimed. Or through Russia and Central Asian republics? Will Pakistan, as a partner of the US, be able to stand by and allow the likely attacks to take place?

 

The New York Times of December 7 carries an article which confirms an earlier Washington Post article of November 30 that prior to the announcement of the strategy on December 1, US National Security Adviser General Jones carried a personal message to Mr Zardari from Mr Obama that if Pakistan did not act aggressively against five terrorist groups (Al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Haqqani network and the Pakistani Taliban) the US will use more force from the Afghan territory by way of drone attacks and operations by US Special Forces. Already in the Pakistani media there are mentions of likely drone strikes in Balochistan where Afghan Taliban operate.

Mr Obama's letter specifically mentioned that any ambiguity in the relationships between the Pakistan Army and the five terrorist groups could not be ignored. In these circumstances, our attention should be focused not on the beginning of withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in July 2011 but also the decision that the Pakistan Army is being asked to take to fight to disrupt, dismantle and defeat the five terrorist organisations which were originally nurtured by the Pakistani Army and its ISI.The Pakistan Army has initiated a campaign against the Pakistani Taliban and is yet to make a decision to fight the other four terrorist organisations.

 

The campaign against the Pakistani Taliban has already resulted in retaliatory attacks on major Pakistani cities — Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Lahore, etc. If the Army takes on the other four the retaliatory attacks are likely to increase. The American forces reinforced by the surge are likely to use their superior firepower to push the Afghan Taliban into their safe havens in Pakistan. They expect Pakistan to take on the Taliban falling back into the Pakistani territory under threat. If the Pakistan Army fails to do so they will use drone strikes and their own special forces. In such circumstances, the terrorist forces may fall back into further interior areas. They may also launch revenge attacks on Pakistani cities and military targets to punish the Pakistan Army for its cooperation with the US.

 

Given this scenario, the US authorities, including Defence Secretary Robert Gates, expect that terrorist organisations like Al-Qaeda and the Lashkar-e-Toiba may launch a major terrorist strike against India to trigger an India-Pakistan war that may forestall action against them. While the US authorities expect the terrorist organisations to resort to this stratagem, the Pakistan Army also may resort to the same trick to provoke India into a confrontation and use it as an excuse not to take action against terrorist organisations they had nurtured, as being insisted on by the US. Such a confrontation with India will be popular in Pakistan and may help to unite the country, including the jehadis.

 

Therefore, the next few months are extremely vulnerable for India. We have vulnerabilities in respect of sleeper jehadi cells planted by Pakistan in our country, terrorist attacks by land, sea and air by Pakistani terrorist teams, Maoists whom the Pakistani ISI could have cultivated and the secessionists in the North-East with whom the ISI has been in touch in Bangladesh

 

Already, a great deal of cooperation and information sharing exist between the agencies of India and the US. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama in their joint statement agreed to establish a counter-terrorism cooperation initiative. That has to be acted upon without delay.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

LAST LETTER OR WILL?

BY BRIG A. N. SURYANARAYANAN

 

While reading Jeffrey Archer's recent book "Paths of Glory", I came across a conversation during WW-I between the hero, a Lt in Royal Artillery and his corporal: "A letter to your wife, Perkins?"; "No, sir; it is my Will". My mind immediately raced back 38 years, to Friday, 10 December 1971.

 

Having fought a ferocious battle and pulled back to east of the river, the Division was consolidating. It was expected to be a day of lull. Suddenly at about 10 a m, there was confusion, as half-baked information came in that a huge enemy tank column had crossed the river at Crossing "D" and was heading towards the nearest town!

 

While that information was being checked, as a precautionary measure, reconnaissance of a different gun area for the artillery brigade, further to the rear, commenced as we were on the possible ingress route.

 

Just then my friend Major Pakrasi from Corps HQ landed close to my Fire Direction Centre in an Air OP aircraft carrying an important message for the Division (along with a cake from his wife). When he saw the 'fog of war', he decided not to delay, as the aircraft was urgently required back. I quickly wrote a letter (which was more or less my last Will and Testament) to my wife of three-and-a half years, then staying with her parents in Dehradun, in case the worst happened!

 

I handed it to him requesting him to post it in the Corps FPO for faster delivery! I had written telling her the likely balance in bank; advising her not be sentimental but to re-marry for the sake of our (then) only daughter, just a year-plus etc!

 

Soon, the information about the tank-column crossing was found to be false. With the arrival of the Corps Commander early afternoon, reconnaissance for any rearward move was stopped and a counterattack went in at D. The situation stabilised!

 

Ceasefire came on 17th and I had my first weekend pass, a month later, on 15/16 January 72, to be with my wife whom I had called to our own vacant flat at Pathankot by 14th. Soon the postman arrived and handed a Forces Letter duly re-directed from her Dehradun address! Looking at my name and the FPO stamp of 10 December, I snatched the letter from her. She wanted to know why. I told her. She insisted on reading it and cried a lot.

 

That is the time she also told me how Radio Pakistan had announced the names of my Commander, me, my GSO-3 and the Field Post Master as having been captured....a white lie, on 7 December, after we had vacated our previous position west of the river.

 

Luckily she had got a letter from me dated 8th subsequently! It was good that this Last Will and supposedly Last Letter from me was delayed by a month; for once I thanked the Indian Post!

 

We visited Darbar Sahib in Amritsar that Sunday, before I drove back to forward area on Monday morning!

 

Tailpiece: My wife passed away in 1983; that daughter in 1994 and Pakrasi this year.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

NEW SPIRIT OF COOPERATION

CELEBRATING QUARTER CENTURY OF SAARC

BY NIRANJAN DESAI

 

The 25th anniversary of the signing of the SAARC Charter (Dec 8, 2009) is good occasion to review and assess the progress the organisation has made since its inception. After initial years of stilted progress, SAARC is rapidly transforming itself from a declaratory to an effective implementing organisation. This progression has generated interest amongst non-SAARC states with nine observers formally expressing their intent to engage with SAARC.

 

India has been an important factor in strengthening intra-regional cooperation. India's manner of its commitment to regional cooperation with SAARC member states by taking initiatives on regional projects has helped SAARC transform itself as an effective regional development organisation impacting directly at the grassroots level.

 

Bangladesh, Pakistan and Bhutan are also setting up necessary infrastructure for establishment of key specialised institutions that would complement the role of the SAARC Secretariat in coordinating SAARC activities. The focused approach of Nepal and Maldives on core subjects of development, such as agriculture, health and coastal management through the SAARC Regional Centres hosted by them are producing vibrant programmes and workshops.

 

Even SAARC's newest member, Afghanistan, despite all its problems, is actively participating in all SAARC meetings and has already hosted/hosting several meetings in Kabul including the pivotal Fifth Meeting of the SAARC Development Fund Board.

 

The new spirit of regional cooperation, notwithstanding political difficulties between certain SAARC countries, has resulted in the beginning of SAARC institution-building process. The contours of the South Asian University (to be established in New Delhi), the SAARC Arbitration Council (to be located in Islamabad), Secretariat of the SAARC Development Fund (to be headquartered in Thimpu) and the SAARC Regional Standards Organisation (to be established in Dhaka) have been finalised.

 

The timely disbursement of India's financial commitment of US $ 189.89 million (both voluntary and assessed) for the SAARC Development Fund has enabled it to be operationalised. The other SAARC member-states are also in the process of disbursing their contributions before the 16th SAARC Summit. The SAARC Food Bank is operational. Intra-regional trade within SAARC through SAFTA has more than doubled and has crossed 7 per cent, totalling US $ 200 million despite the current global economic crisis and recession.

 

The 15th SAARC Summit, chaired by Sri Lanka, witnessed signing of four key agreements, namely, accession of Afghanistan to the SAFTA Protocol; the establishment of SAARC Regional Standards Organisation in Bangladesh; the Convention of Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters and the Charter and Bylaws of the SAARC Development Fund.

 

The speed with which the South Asian University project is being established is impressive. With its Act, the South Asian University Act 2008, and its privileges and immunities giving it the required international legal contours, member-states will all be contributing to its full cost of US $ 303 million. India, as host, is already providing 100 acres of land in the centre of Delhi for it and is ready to disburse US $ 239.30 million, in five annual tranches.

 

Other major regional project initiatives include women's empowerment, maternal and child healthcare including immunisation, SAARC Science Caravan, demonstration run of a container train from Pakistan to Bangladesh via India and Nepal. In addition, a number of projects such as telemedicine, tele-education, solar rural electrification, seed testing laboratories, harmonisation of seed standards and rainwater harvesting funded by India are being implemented through a hub-and-spoke mechanism.

 

These have increased member-states' experience in cooperation and collaboration in regional projects. They are offering international airfare in addition to hospitality for programmes being hosted by them resulting in increased participation in training programmes.

 

A SAARC Museum of Textiles is to be established shortly in the Delhi Haat, Pitampura, to showcase the region's rich textile heritage that though it has historic commonalities, it is diverse with each member-state's unique contribution. Cultural programmes such as Bands Festivals, Folklore Festivals, Fashion shows and Food Festivals are adding to the increased cultural interaction in a vibrant manner.

 

With increasing regional engagement on core areas of development like health, education and infrastructure, awareness about the effectiveness of SAARC in delivering the fruits of development to the South Asians at the grassroots has increased. Consequently, there has been an exponential increase in intra-regional tourism, people-to-people exchanges through cultural and social activities and programmes.

 

This new vibrancy reflected in the growing regional cooperation through SAARC has also attracted interest amongst non-SAARC States; nine observers have formally expressed their intent to engage with SAARC. Intra-regional cooperation has strengthened physical connectivity, helped face the food crisis and is encouraging greater cooperation in articulating a common SAARC position at many international fora.

 

As the youngest yet fastest growing vehicle for regional economic cooperation, SAARC has been able to successfully adapt and complement its traditional cultural strengths with the demands of the current global economic and political framework. Representing the aspirations of one-fifth of world's population, SAARC aspires to grow from strength to strength using its traditional linkages, innovative ideas (SAARC Science Caravan, SAARC Car Rally) and the research and development initiatives of its 11 regional centres.

 

SAARC's evolutionary path towards economic prosperity is irreversible. With increasing economic inter-dependence amongst member-states, the future towards a SAARC Customs Union or a Single SAARC Currency appears to be more realistic than ever before.

 

Political will and commitment towards meaningful and effective regional cooperation can only result in the progressive dismantling of physical, psychological and other barriers and effective regional integration that can fulfill the hopes and aspirations of more than one billion of human kind for peaceful coexistence and economic prosperity.

 

The writer, a former IFS officer, has served in the US, the UK, Germany and Switzerland and in the Ministry of External Affairs. He is currently Chairperson of the Indian National Committee for SAARC Awards

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

ENSURING GOOD GOVERNANCE IN HARYANA

BY RANBIR SINGH

 

The Congress' emergence as the largest single party in the Haryana Assembly elections enabled it to form the government for the second time under the leadership of Mr Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The much-needed support from the kingmakers, the seven Independents, helped the government to prove its majority on the floor of the House. The so-called merger of five Haryana Janhit Congress MLAs will ensure stability.

 

However, the government has yet to gain legitimacy by de-bureaucratising and decentralising the district governance, which is the cutting edge of administration. Indeed, it was this factor that adversely affected the Congress' performance in the Assembly elections despite Mr Hooda's clean and liberal image as also rapid development during his earlier tenure.

 

The Haryana Administrative Reforms Commission had recommended in its report (2008) that the district administration should be restructured and its operational and service delivery aspects be reformed by strengthening the grievances redressal mechanism. For this purpose, it sought re-organisation of the districts, sub-divisions, tehsils, development blocks and police stations and suggested the formation of clusters of departments and PSUs in districts for better coordination.

 

It also recommended a reasonably fixed tenure for the officers posted in the field formations. It was of the view that only super-time scale officers of IAS cadre and DIG rank IPS officers should be posted as DCs and SSPs in crucial districts. It also emphasised career planning and adequate training of them before their appointment to these offices.

 

Further, the commission suggested the need-based re-deployment of Group C and Group D employees within the district by the district heads of various departments. It suggested scrapping the present practice of deciding these at the state level.

 

The commission made many more recommendations to improve district administration, but it is doubtful how many of them have been implemented. There is no use of these recommendations, however worthwhile they may be, if they remain only on paper.

 

The Third State Finance Commission, set up by the state government, under the chairmanship of former Chief Secretary A.N. Mathur in 2005, in its report (2009), has recommended democratisation and decentralisation of district governance through the functional and financial empowerment of the panchayati raj Institutions and the urban local bodies.

 

It felt that there was an imperative need for the bifurcation of domain between the state government and the local bodies similar to the division of subjects between the Centre and the states. To achieve this, it recommended that all the local level functions being presently performed by the line departments in the district and sub-districts should be transferred to the rural and urban local bodies along with funds, functionaries and functions in a phased manner.

 

The commission was of the view that there should be a clear-cut demarcation of the tax resources between the state and the local bodies either through consensus or through suitable state legislation to ensure legitimate sharing of taxes. It recommended that out of its resources from the global sharing, state excise revenue, Local Area Development Tax Proceeds and Twelfth Finance Commission grants, the state government should give to the rural and urban local bodies Rs 816.50 crore in 2008-09, 889.38 in 2009-10 and 876.89 in 2010-11. The Commission recommended that the unreleased share of PRIs amount 352.28 crore and of the urban local bodies to the tune of Rs 183.92 crore for 2006-07 and 2007-08 should be also transferred to them.

 

It suggested a very rational criterion for the division of resources among various districts by devising a composite index based on the parameters of population, areas, BPL families and literacy gap between the PRIs and the urban local bodies as well as among the gram panchayats, panchayat samitis and zilla parishads.

 

Besides, the commission recommended that the PRIs should be authorised to levy tax or fee on advertisements, hoardings, cable operators, micro-towers, public schools, coaching centres, technical and commercial institutions and other establishments like shops, restaurants and hotels, etc. located in their jurisdiction. Whereas, the municipalities be empowered to double house taxes on buildings other than residential buildings to levy profession tax, tax on the vacant land in the urban areas. Moreover, they be authorised to levy tax on valoriaation, impact fee on development, betterment levy and charge extractions from the developers.

 

If the state government is keen to resolve the crises of legitimacy, it will have to remove the deficit of good governance at the district level by implementing the recommendations of the Haryana Administrative Reforms Commission for streamlining district governance and that of the Third State Finance Commission for democratic decentralisation without delay. Commissions and recommendations are of little value if they are not implemented with the attention they deserve.

 

The writer, a former Professor of Political Science, Kurukshetra University, is currently Consultant, Haryana Institute of Rural Development, Nilokheri (Karnal)

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

SEA LEVELS MAY RISE FASTER

BY STEVE CONNOR

 

SEA LEVELS may rise three times faster than the official predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the global average sea. The new assessment comes just one week after another international scientific body concluded that the IPCC had been too conservative in estimating a maximum of 59 cm of sea level rise this century as a result of global warming.

 

Scientists believe earlier estimates failed to take into account gaps in the knowledge of how melting ice sheets will affect sea level, as well as technical errors in the calculations which have now been corrected, giving a much higher figure for estimated sea level rise than those published by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment.

 

A sea level rise of 1.9m would result in large tracts of eastern England being inundated with seawater, and would wipe out many low-lying island nations as well as making large parts of Bangladesh uninhabitable. It would also increase the chances of storm surges flooding major coastal cities, such as New York and London, even with the protection offered by the Thames Barrier.

 

The latest study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that global average sea levels are likely to rise by between 75 cm and 190 cm by the end of the century, due to the thermal expansion of the warmer oceans and the melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets.

 

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, and Martin Vermeer of Helsinki University of Technology in Finland said sea levels are rising faster as a result of temperature increases, especially at the poles, which are warming at a faster rate than many other parts of the world.

 

"Since 1990, sea level has been rising at 3.4 mm per year, twice as fast as on average over the 20th century. Even if that rate just remained steady, this would already lead to 34 cm rise in the 21st century," Dr Rahmstorf said. "But the data show us clearly n the warmer it gets, the faster the sea level rises. If we want to prevent a galloping sea level rise, we should stop global warming as soon as possible," he said.

 

Dr Rahmstorf published a study in 2007, which came too late for including in the IPCC's fourth assessment report, suggesting that global sea levels could rise by as much as 1.4m by 2100. However, he said that this earlier study was based on previous sea level rises that had failed to take into account the extra amount of sea level — about 3cm — that would have occurred had the freshwater held back by man-made reservoirs and dams been able to flow into the sea.

 

About two thirds of the additional 0.5m of maximum sea-level rise predicted in the latest study is due to this underestimate in previous calculations of past sea levels, Dr Rahmstorf said. The remaining third is due to refinements of the calculations producing more accurate estimates of sea level rise. The 1.9m increase will occur if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase on their present trajectory, which happens to be the worst-case scenario of the IPCC. Reducing emissions early this century will have a corresponding effect on reducing the maximum sea level rises, the scientists said.

 

One of the greatest difficulties in assessing future sea levels is the problem of gauging how fast it might take for polar ice sheets to disintegrate — whether they melt slowly, or slip quickly into the sea.

By arrangement with The Independent

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THE ASSAM TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

ON TOP OF WORLD

 

By defeating Sri Lanka by one innings and 24 runs in the third and final Test of the recent series, India emerged as the number one Test side in the world, which brought smiles to the faces of millions of fans across the country. But India cannot afford to be complacent and should start preparations for the 2011 World Cup right now as the country's performance in the last World Cup was not at all up to the mark. With the batsmen making merry, India totally overpowered Sri Lanka in the three Test series to win by a 2-0 margin and the woes of the visitors were compounded by the fact that their bowling spearhead Muthiah Muralitharan was totally off colour in the whole series, while, most of their top batsmen did not click at the same time. Only on a docile pitch in the first Test of the series, the visitors got an upper hand with the Indian top order failing to click in the first innings. After the initial hiccup in the first innings of the first Test, the Indian top order clicked on every occasion with Virender Sehwag in rampaging mood, while, on the positive side, the Indian bowlers lived up to their reputation to bowl out the opposition twice on two occasions. The pace spearhead Zaheer Khan led from the front to trouble every batsman, while, the return of S Sreesanth with a bang in the second Test of the series is a positive development. Very rarely, pace bowlers succeed on the docile Indian pitches, but Zaheer and Sreesanth proved everyone wrong with one five wicket haul each and the new boy Pragyan Ojha also impressed everyone.

The cricket fans of the country are elated over the success of the team, but certain aspects need immediate attention if the team is to retain the number one status for a long time as was done by Australia in the past. Though the slot of openers in the team is secured for the time being, middle order stalwarts like Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid are not getting any younger and efforts must be made to improve the bench strength to replace them when they retire from international cricket. Of course, both the stalwarts proved that they are still in prime form, but they cannot be expected to carry on for a long time and India must start looking for their replacements from now on. Dependable middle order batsman VVS Laksman also did not get a big score in the series, a which is a cause of concern, while, Yuvraj Singh failed to live up to the reputation to emerge as a dependable and consistent batsman in the longer version of the game. Captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni's form even in the longer version of the game is a positive sign and he may have to bat higher in the order in the days to come. What is unfortunate is that India is yet to produce a genuine all rounder who can fill the void created by the retirement of Kapil Dev and though in his initial years in the international arena, Irfan Pathan promised much, his bowling lost the sting and he is now out of the team.

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THE ASSAM TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

WITCH-HUNTING

It is shocking that the phenomenon of witch-hunting continues to be widespread in the State, with 50 people having lost their lives on the suspicion of practising sorcery in less than four years. It is a grim reminder that even in the millennium when scientific knowledge is breaking new grounds, many of our societies have not been able to put their dark, primitive days behind, with ignorance and superstition throttling rational thinking and fuelling mass frenzy. If the alarming regularity of incidents of witch-hunting is any indication, it is clear how deep-rooted the malaise is. Interventions made by the government and non-government organizations have apparently failed to make much impact. Even areas that had been brought under special focus of the administration due to their sinister reputation for such killings have shown little improvement on that count. While it is easy to attribute all this to deep-rooted superstition, it is a fact that widespread illiteracy, ignorance and socio-economic backwardness also form the breeding ground of superstition and perpetuate such despicable practices. In many tribal villages, witch-hunting is often used as a ploy to settle personal scores by branding a person as witch. People's dependence on quacks in remote areas because of lack of access to modern health-care facilities also contributes to the scourge. When a quack fails to cure a patient -- more so when wrong treatment results in death -- the blame is generally sought to be put on a 'witch.'

 

The deteriorating situation has to be tackled through a multi-pronged approach. While spreading education and creating awareness is critical for a long-term solution, equally imperative is to make modern health care accessible to the people in remote areas. The law-and-order and legal aspects also need to be strictly addressed and those indulging in such killings have to be punished. More often than not, the murderers manage to evade the law as a mob is involved in witch-hunting. Engaging the people in meaningful economic activities should also be a part of the strategy to deal with the menace. The government undoubtedly has an abiding responsibility in meeting the basic needs of the people but voluntary organizations can play an equally responsible role in dispelling superstitions. Irrational beliefs are so deeply entrenched in the psyche of a primitive society that it would require a sustained effort to shake it off. All of us should join hands to exorcise the witch from the minds of our ignorant brethren.

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THE ASSAM TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

A FRAMEWORK FOR TALKS WITH ULFA

H N DAS

 

The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) received the most severe blow when its Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa was brought back to India after his arrest (or surrender) in Dhaka in December, 2009. Along with Rajkhowa the Deputy Commander-in-Chief Raju Baruah and a few others were also brought back to India. Only the Commander-in-Chief Paresh Baruah and the cadres whom he directly controls have remained behind in a badly truncated ULFA. Whether these momentous events will bring back peace to Assam will be known only in the future.

But there was a time in the late 1980s when ULFA used to run almost a parallel government in many areas of the Brahmaputra valley. Selected destructions of property, bomb blasts, killings, large scale extortions, kidnappings and frequent bundhs terrorized the different strata of society and adversely affected the economic and social life of the people. ULFA used to recruit its members from amongst the large reservoir of unemployed youths in the villages, train them mainly in the northern parts of Myanmar with the help of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) to whom large sums of money had to be paid as training fees.

ULFA had its support base mainly in the villages where its cadres used to find easy shelter. Even in the urban areas many families used to supply money, food and accommodation. Some of them were forced to do so. While some others did it willingly. There were instances of policemen helping ULFA by passing on advance information about proposed counter insurgency measures and thus enabling them to flee or to avoid arrests. Even otherwise many policemen used to intentionally ignore ULFA's nefarious activities and desist from taking appropriate actions.

ULFA had started with the definite objectives of making Assam independent and making it free from the Bangladeshi infiltrators. The first objective it still professes. But it practically abandoned the second objective when it transferred its base to Bangladesh and got embroiled in the anti Indian posture of the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Bangladeshi Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). ULFA's top leaders took up residences in Bangladesh and reportedly started individual businesses with huge investments from out of the money that the outfit had earlier extorted.

Things started changing when Operation Bajrang was launched on the night of November 27-28, 1990. The then ruling Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) Government was dismissed and President's rule was imposed on Assam. The Unified Command structure was set up and combined action of Army, paramilitary forces and police started against ULFA. In my capacity as the Chief Secretary I was appointed Chairman of the first Unified Command in Assam which came into existence on the night of the November 27-28, 1990. There was co-ordinated effort to strike at ULFA Head Quarters in Lakhipathar forest area off Digboi. But the main ULFA leaders had fled away to Myanmar having been tipped off in advance about Operation Bajrang. In a number of strikes in many parts of Assam the security forces inflicted very heavy damages on ULFA in terms of manpower and weapons. Many ULFA leaders and cadres deserted the outfit. They are now known as surrendered ULFA or SULFA. Many attempts were made by pro-talk elements to start a dialogue. But they did not succeed.

The next big offensive was launched on December 15, 2003 to flush out the ULFA cadres from southern Bhutan. ULFA's loss in terms of manpower and weapons was heavy. Since then ULFA has been taking shelter mainly in Bangladesh. But the political situation in Bangladesh has changed recently after the assumption of office by Seikh Hasina Wajed as the Prime Minister. The new Government has turned on the heat against ULFA. Two of its most important leaders, and Central Committee members, namely, Sasha Choudhury, who was in charge of Foreign Affairs, and Chitrabon Hazarika, who was in charge of Finance, were pushed out of Bangladesh directly into the hands of the Indian police in October, 2009. They are now under custody. The ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa was arrested in Bangladesh and has been handed over to Indian police on December 2 or 3, 2009. Only the ULFA Commander-in-Chief Paresh Baruah now remains to be arrested. He is reported to be either in China or in Myanmar or in one of the countries of South East Asia. Arabinda Rajkhowa's arrest also has been officially described as surrender. Meanwhile, an extradition treaty is expected to be signed between India and Bangladesh in the near future. This will facilitate handing over of the arrested ULFA leaders and cadres to India in future.

The situation at present seems to be that almost all of ULFA's top leaders are in custody except Paresh Baruah. Some of its top leaders, including Mrinal Hazarika, who have surrendered, are now campaigning for formal talks. Large numbers of ULFA's cadres have been decimated by desertions and killed in police and army actions. The small number of its cadres who are still sticking to the outfit are in disarray and scattered. Media reports suggest that they are trying to regroup in 3 camps in the Mon district of Nagaland under the aegis of NSCN (Khaplang group). About 200 ULFA cadres are reported to be in NSCN(K)'s designated camp at Mynakshubasti. It is also reported that ULFA has opened a transit camp at Chakobasti on the Assam-Nagaland border. Notwithstanding these activities it is the general belief that ULFA will never regain its earlier strength anytime soon. This belief has been fortified after the arrest of Arabinda Rajkhowa. The situation should not, however, lull the Government into complacence because even if grounded now there is every possibility of ULFA rising again like a phinx. There is also the distinct possibility of fresh disgruntled elements forming new outfits to replace ULFA.

In order to ensure that the number of disgruntled elements do not increase (and is actually reduced) it will be necessary to generate enough employment for skilled, non-skilled and technical personnel through all round and inclusive development of the state with emphasis on labour intensive industries and self employment opportunities. We are now in the middle of the Eleventh Five Year Plan. This plan is very well conceived. It will be necessary for Assam to take advantage of the numerous schemes and programmes included in the Plan and to attract the enormous fund allocations made in the different sectors of the Plan. Only such concentrated efforts can wean away the youth from the path of insurgency and reduce the potential manpower reservoir of unemployed from which ULFA has been drawing its cadres so far.

At the moment the problem is that of freeing the state from continuous violence. This can be done by both Government and ULFA agreeing to talk and sort out the differences. Various people and relevant organizations have expressed different views on the subject. After a number of incidents in which ULFA killed innocent people in indiscriminate bomb blasts and pointless violence majority of people all over the state now want very strict action against ULFA. The universal condemnations that followed the killing of innocent children in Dhemaji on the Independence Day in 2004 and the death of 9 people in the Nalbari blast of November 22, 2009 is evidence of people's anger.

To my mind talks must be held with a view to a permanent and political solution of the problem. And a permanent solution is essential for peace in the state so that economic development can take place in a proper atmosphere and at the appropriate pace. A military solution can bring only temporary respite. I therefore feel that both parties should come to the table for talks with three pre-conditions.

There can be no question of "Sovereignty" as an issue in the talks. Sovereignty and integrity of India as a nation is sacrosanct and cannot be compromised under any circumstances. ULFA must seek a solution within India as it is presently constituted, not outside. This should be the first pre-condition for talks.

The second pre-condition is a truce or a ceasefire and, if necessary, setting up of designated camps as in the cases of NSCN and the Bodo outfits. It would be unrealistic to expect that Arabinda Rajkhowa's arrest would persuade all ULFA cadres to surrender because after surrender they will have no locus standii to talk.

The third pre-condition is to have talks at the highest level. The Government of India should be represented by the Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram himself. Lower functionaries may prepare the agenda after sorting out the issues. But as in the case of the Assam Accord the actual talks must be held at the highest level. Many organizations including the People's Consultative Group (PCG) and the People's Committee for Peace Initiative in Assam (PCPIA) would like to join the talks. Many other organizations seem to point out that ULFA do not represent all the people of Assam. That is true. But it is ULFA which has been fighting against the Government for the past three decades. A solution has to be found with their agreement. It is therefore essential that ULFA is represented in the talks at the highest level of Arabinda Rajkhowa and Paresh Barua. No other organization need be associated at this stage.

(The writer was Chief Secretary, Assam)

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THE ASSAM TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

CERVICAL CANCER – A THREAT TO WOMEN

CHANDANA CHOUDHURY BARUA

 

A recent news about developing a vaccine against cervical cancer has certainly brought relief to women. Not many people know that cervical cancer is also one of the most dreaded diseases of women during their reproductive years. The exit of Jade Goody from Big Boss was also a shock that she was at the terminal stage of her cervical cancer and that she was well prepared for her impending death. Since then news about cervical cancer has become a hot topic.

Cervical cancer is a major global public health problem affecting socio-economically deprived populations. It is the most common cancer among women in low-resource countries where 85 per cent of the global cervical cancer burden of approximately 4,93, 000 cases and 2,73, 000 deaths are found annually. "Cervical cancer caused by HPV comprises over 34 per cent of cancers among women in India, making it the most common. Of this, 70 per cent of the cancers are said to be caused by two strains of the virus – HPV 16 and HPV 18 – against which a vaccine has been developed," explained Dr Neerja Bhatla, additional professor of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology at the AIIMS.

Not many know that India, with a population of 365.71 million has women aged between 15 years and above who stand at the risk of developing cervical cancer. A World Health Organisation study reveals that every year 1,32,082 women are diagnosed with this particular kind of cancer and 74,118 die from the disease. The growing risk of cervical cancer in women in India (aged 0-64 years) is 2.4 per cent compared to 1.3 per cent for the world.

Cervical cancer is the cancer of the mouth of the uterus called cervix. "It is the commonest cancer in India and all sexually active women are at a risk of contracting this disease. But it's mostly seen in woman aged between 50 to 55 years. If detected at a pre-cancerous stage (when the cells are not normal, but are not yet cancerous), this cancer is 100 per cent curable," says Dr Gauravi Mishra, a consultant in preventive oncology at the Tata Memorial Hospital. Pelvic pain or pain during intercourse, bleeding between periods, post-menstrual bleeding and discharge from the vagina are the main symptoms. HPV (Human papilloma virus infection) is the main and necessary virus for this cancer. It is a sexually transmitted virus and even rubbing of the private parts can cause it. Most people never even know they have HPV or that they are passing it to their partner. So it may not be possible to know who gave HPV or when one got it. HPV is so common that most people get it soon after they start having sex. And it may only be detected years later. There are some risk factors like having sex at an early age , having many sexual partners, having many pregnancies, using birth control pills for 5 or more years or consuming any form of tobacco.

Cervical cancer vaccine is the first vaccine ever designed to prevent cancer. It is recommended to girls aged 11 to 12 years as it allows a girl's immune system to be activated before she's likely to encounter HPV. This vaccine is not yet available in India, but is expected by the year end. "Although this vaccine has proved quite effective in the western countries, we still need to follow up to see for how long the immunity lasts," says Dr Mishra. Delaying sex until one becomes older can help to avoid HPV. It also helps to limit the number of sexual partners and to avoid having sex with someone who has had many other sexual partners. Condoms when used correctly can lower the HPV infection rate by about 70 per cent. They can't protect one completely because they don't cover every possible HPV-infected area of the body, such as the skin of the genital or the anal area.

Pap test is done for diagnosis of cervical cancer. In this test, cells are collected from the surface of the cervix and checked on a slide. This test is available at most hospitals and clinics and its cost varies from Rs 250 to Rs 500.

For several decades now, it has been known that the widespread use of Pap smear test for screening has successfully and substantially reduced cervical cancer deaths in developed countries. Doctors take DNA cells by swabbing the cervix. "The HPV test is ideal for the detection of cervical cancer. It is slightly more accurate than the pap test, but is not recommended for woman below 30 years of age," says Dr Neerja Batla, a senior gynecologist, AIIMS.

The three main treatments are surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. In case of a surgery, the chances of a woman conceiving a child later in her life are nil. In Western countries, the cases of cervical cancer have come down due to the active awareness, vaccine and pap screenings which detect the cancer at a very early stage.
 
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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

INDIAN SPORTSPERSON OF 2009

 

Abhinav Bindra called the shots in 2008 by becoming the first Indian to win an Olympic gold in an individual event. The year 2009, which will end in 23 days, has seen any number of outstanding performances in the sports arena. December 3 saw one of the greatest knocks in Test cricket being played by Virender Sehwag who smashed his way with 40 fours and seven sixes to 293 off 254 deliveries, just seven runs short of achieving the world record of being the only batsman to score three triple centuries in Tests. Just 28 days before that, on November 5, Tendulkar smashed 19 fours and six sixes while scoring 175 runs off 141 deliveries at Hyderabad in an ODI against world champions Australia, almost taking India to an improbable win while chasing a mammoth score of 351. However, both Sehwag and Tendulkar were playing at home while representing the national cricket team that has not just a physical-fitness trainer but a mental-conditioning coach.

Nineteen year old Saina Nehwal did not have that kind of back-up when she won the Super Series Indonesian Open tournament on June 21, defeating in the finals China's Lin Wang, the world number three. Her father, a scientist at the Oilseeds Research Centre in Hyderabad, used to drive her to the coaching centre some 20 km away from home, and then drop her off at school before reporting for duty. Her family spent Rs 12,000 a month on equipment and training until she reached a level where the likes of Yonex and the Mittal Champions' Trust supported her. The one thing Saina had going for her was that she had an outstanding mentor in the Hyderabad-based Pullela Gopichand who won the All England Open Badminton Championship in 2001. Gopichand is also one of the few Indian sporting legends who has turned down offers to endorse MNC colas as he felt they were not exactly health-enhancing drinks!

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

FOR SHARED E-ACCOUNTS

 

The Pension Fund Regulatory & Development Authority's (PFRDA) decision to appoint a second central record-keeping agency (CRA) for the new pension system (NPS), to introduce competition and bring down cost, is a welcome measure. This should serve as an occasion to rethink the use of such shared infrastructure for maintaining electronic record- and account-keeping. Why restrict them, as we have so far, to demat accounts that hold securities and pension accounts? Why not extend the use of commonly-shared electronic accounts for low-cost banking? If wealth equivalent to India's GDP — that's roughly the value of all listed shares — can be entrusted with such electronic accounts, without compromising security, privacy or ease of operations, why can't banks and small savings make use of the facility as well? While it is true that competition does generally lower price of a product or a service, the principle need not apply to record keeping just yet. The new player - whether it is Central Depository Services (CDSL) or some other — may not automatically be able to bring down costs for subscribers the way CDSL managed to do for depository services when it was created to challenge National Securities Depositories (NSDL) monopoly. The number of accounts, over which the overhead costs have to be spread, is the key factor, even if the government were to extend budgetary support to over capital costs.

In the case of the CRA built for the NPS, the cost of maintaining a permanent retirement account (PRA) will fall from the current Rs 350 to Rs 280 and further to Rs 250 when the number of accounts maintained by the CRA rises to 10 lakh and 30 lakh respectively. Some say this is a conservative estimate. But NPS alone will not be able to ensure rapid increase in account numbers. We have suggested in the past that the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation should use the existing CRA for its 4 crore members, rather than build a new, dedicated one for itself. State governments too can use the CRA of either NSDL or the incoming agency to manage pensions of their employees, even if they do not join the NPS.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

NEW WARMTH TO OLD TIES

 

The Prime Minister's visit to Russia that saw six key agreements being signed marks two things, both significant: one, resumption of the strategic ties between the two countries that had lost, of late, some of their earlier warmth and tensile strength; and two, India's readiness to engage with all the different poles of global power with equal vigour. The six agreements included a pathbreaking civil nuclear deal that firmly embraces cooperation and shuns the conditionalities that burden the nuclear deal with the US, three military pacts that take joint research and production to the next level, an agreement on cultural exchange between the two countries and a final one on trebling bilateral trade over three years with the help of a credit line. Indeed, given that the relationship with Russia — described as 'the most important' by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his just-concluded visit — has been dominated more by military matters, there is a need to deepen its political and economic facets. In fact, the levels of bilateral trade are abysmally low, which becomes all the more glaring given the huge scope that exists for trade in many spheres, from energy to IT. The multiple high-level visits between the two countries in the past few years could not mask the fact that glitches like the griping over the price of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov had been affecting mutual ties. Then there was the more significant perception that India had 'gone over' to the US. The feeling that, in the post-Soviet Union era, India was more interested in forging ties with the sole remaining superpower while Russia also turned its attentions elsewhere. Despite that, the core strategic relationship survived, with Russia continuing to be the major provider of equipment to India, and there was a positive convergence on a political understanding of regional issues as well.

Russia seems to have acted on the assumption of the growing importance of the Asian region, where it sees India as the only major player with the ability to balance China's growing might. Not surprisingly, this served as the basis for the turnaround in American ties with India under Bush as well. And even as more defence purchases are on the anvil, the high-technology transfer the nuclear deal entails also signal mutual cooperation on an entirely different plane.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

LETTING GO VITAL FOR SELF-ATTAINMENT

VITHAL C NADKARNI

 

When the noted writer Zadie Smith was 14, her mother gave her Their Eyes Were Watching God by Zora Neale Hurston. "I was reluctant to read the book, Smith recounts in her recent book of essays Changing My Mind, "I knew what she meant by giving it me and resented its inference." But she was hooked when she read the first page of the novel that TIME listed in 100 best English-language novels from 1923 to 2005: "Ships at a distance have every man's wish on board. For some they come in with the tide. For others they sail forever on the horizon, never out of sight, never landing until the Watcher turns away in resignation, his dreams mocked to death By Time. That is the life of men.

"Now, women forget all those things that they don't want to remember, and remember everything they don't want to forget. The dream is the truth. Then they act and do things accordingly."

That aphorism "had me pinned to the ground, unable to deny its strength," Smith reminisces, "I found myself melancholy for these nameless men and their inevitable losses. The second part, about the women, struck home." The novel also forced the teen-aged writer-to-be to abandon several of her passionately held aphorisms such as only dead white males like John Keats had a monopoly on lyrical language: "Above all, Hurston is essential universal reading," Smith explains, "because is neither self-conscious nor restricted." Raised in an all-black town the writer "grew up a fully human being, unaware that she was meant to consider herself a minority, an other, an exotic or something depleted in rights, talents, desires, and expectations. As an adult away from her home town, she found the world was determined to do its best to remind her of her supposed inferiority, but Hurston was already made, and the metaphysical confidence she claimed for her life is present, with equal, refreshing force, in her fiction."

The search for this metaphysical confidence, which flows from self-actualisation or self-realisation, is one of the pivotal drivers of the human condition. But only when it is realised does it seem as essential or 'easy' as breathing or cycle-riding. Smith writes. "It is also as complicated, as full of blessings and curses."

Blessed are only those willing to confront and master its often counter-intuitive claims. This may entail just being and letting go as much as it calls for struggling and sweating. You're IT.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

NIL DERIVATIVE FEES ANTI-COMPETITIVE?

 

Zero levy doesn't make it anti-competitive

By itself, not levying a charge by an enterprise for a product or service is not necessarily anti-competitive. Low prices benefit consumers and are, therefore, welcome. But the story could change if the low or zero-pricing is undertaken for a predatory objective.

Under competition law, dominance itself is fine if attained through greater efficiency or better product or service. A dominant firm is also allowed by the law to compete, even aggressively, and competition law seeks to protect not a competitor but the process of competition. Thus, a dominant firm is not permitted to destroy competition through predatory pricing. Under section 4(2)(a) of the Competition Act, the offence of predatory pricing has three essential ingredients: the firm must be dominant as defined in the Act; the price must be below cost, usually 'average variable cost'; and there must be mala fide intent to eliminate or reduce competition. These fact-specific ingredients would have to be established through factual evidence in each case.

Predatory pricing cases, though relatively uncommon, are not unknown. Recently, Wanadoo (France Telecom) was fined e10.35 million in EU for pricing residential broadband internet services below average variable cost to pre-empt the market in high-speed internet access. Earlier, Akzo was fined e10 million for predatory pricing of flour additives, and Tetra Pak was fined for predatory pricing of non-aseptic cartons.

If a firm, dominant in one product or service, cross-subsidises another product or service to below-cost level, it could risk violating another abuse of dominance prohibition of the Act contained in section 4(2)(e). For example, in Europe, Deutsche Post, on a complaint by UPS, was found guilty of abusing its letter-post monopoly for below-cost selling of its commercial parcel service. Deutsche Post had to agree to spin off its commercial parcel service into an independent legal entity. Microsoft, in the famous case, was charged with similar misconduct. The inquiry into a predatory pricing offence is, therefore, fact-heavy, and this generic article is written without reference to any individual case.

(MCX-SX has sought the author's advice on the matter)

Predatory pricing only for introductory phase

Whenever an established stock exchange commences trading in a new segment, in order to ensure its success, it may grant concessions, including a lower rate of levy on turnover. This predatory pricing, however, needs to be viewed against the background of the imperative need to have free and fair competition for new entrants in the field.

The Competition Act, 2002, refers to predatory price as "the sale of goods or provision of services at a price which is below the cost, as may be determined by regulations, of production of the goods or provision of services, with a view to reduce competition or eliminate the competitors".

If, in the circumstances, the National Stock Exchange is allowed to continue with its policy of predatory pricing in the currency derivatives segment, it will be next to impossible for a new entrant to enter the field and sustain itself for long. A predatory pricing policy in respect of a new product, therefore, needs to be regulated. It can be for a short period of three months or so to act as a booster. Secondly, the subsidy for the operation of the new segment cannot come from other segments.

Internationally too, predatory pricing is considered to be a pernicious practice that can irreparably prejudice the market and consumers. It is here that the regulator has to intervene, as competition is the sine qua non of a free market economy where innovations in products, etc, must continuously emerge in the larger interest of the consumer to ensure that no one is allowed to be in a monopolistic position.

A few months ago, the Forward Markets Commission, which regulates the commodity markets, objected when the National Commodities & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) announced a concessional levy of just 5 p per Re 1 lakh of turnover for its evening trading session against the rate of Rs 4 to Re 1 in the regular session. It directed that the band of variation in turnover levies between any two sessions cannot exceed 4:1. Moreover, Sebi presently fixes the issuer charges payable by the companies to the two depositories that are the same. The regulator may, therefore, take the call and stop avoidable wrangles.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

ZERO LEVY DOESN'T MAKE IT ANTI-COMPETITIVE

VINOD DHALL

 

By itself, not levying a charge by an enterprise for a product or service is not necessarily anti-competitive. Low prices benefit consumers and are, therefore, welcome. But the story could change if the low or zero-pricing is undertaken for a predatory objective.

 

Under competition law, dominance itself is fine if attained through greater efficiency or better product or service. A dominant firm is also allowed by the law to compete, even aggressively, and competition law seeks to protect not a competitor but the process of competition. Thus, a dominant firm is not permitted to destroy competition through predatory pricing. Under section 4(2)(a) of the Competition Act, the offence of predatory pricing has three essential ingredients: the firm must be dominant as defined in the Act; the price must be below cost, usually 'average variable cost'; and there must be mala fide intent to eliminate or reduce competition. These fact-specific ingredients would have to be established through factual evidence in each case.

Predatory pricing cases, though relatively uncommon, are not unknown. Recently, Wanadoo (France Telecom) was fined e10.35 million in EU for pricing residential broadband internet services below average variable cost to pre-empt the market in high-speed internet access. Earlier, Akzo was fined e10 million for predatory pricing of flour additives, and Tetra Pak was fined for predatory pricing of non-aseptic cartons.

If a firm, dominant in one product or service, cross-subsidises another product or service to below-cost level, it could risk violating another abuse of dominance prohibition of the Act contained in section 4(2)(e). For example, in Europe, Deutsche Post, on a complaint by UPS, was found guilty of abusing its letter-post monopoly for below-cost selling of its commercial parcel service. Deutsche Post had to agree to spin off its commercial parcel service into an independent legal entity. Microsoft, in the famous case, was charged with similar misconduct. The inquiry into a predatory pricing offence is, therefore, fact-heavy, and this generic article is written without reference to any individual case.

(MCX-SX has sought the author's advice on the matter)

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

PREDATORY PRICING ONLY FOR INTRODUCTORY PHASE

M R MAYYA

 

Whenever an established stock exchange commences trading in a new segment, in order to ensure its success, it may grant concessions, including a lower rate of levy on turnover. This predatory pricing, however, needs to be viewed against the background of the imperative need to have free and fair competition for new entrants in the field.

The Competition Act, 2002, refers to predatory price as "the sale of goods or provision of services at a price which is below the cost, as may be determined by regulations, of production of the goods or provision of services, with a view to reduce competition or eliminate the competitors".

If, in the circumstances, the National Stock Exchange is allowed to continue with its policy of predatory pricing in the currency derivatives segment, it will be next to impossible for a new entrant to enter the field and sustain itself for long. A predatory pricing policy in respect of a new product, therefore, needs to be regulated. It can be for a short period of three months or so to act as a booster. Secondly, the subsidy for the operation of the new segment cannot come from other segments.

Internationally too, predatory pricing is considered to be a pernicious practice that can irreparably prejudice the market and consumers. It is here that the regulator has to intervene, as competition is the sine qua non of a free market economy where innovations in products, etc, must continuously emerge in the larger interest of the consumer to ensure that no one is allowed to be in a monopolistic position.

A few months ago, the Forward Markets Commission, which regulates the commodity markets, objected when the National Commodities & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) announced a concessional levy of just 5 p per Re 1 lakh of turnover for its evening trading session against the rate of Rs 4 to Re 1 in the regular session. It directed that the band of variation in turnover levies between any two sessions cannot exceed 4:1. Moreover, Sebi presently fixes the issuer charges payable by the companies to the two depositories that are the same. The regulator may, therefore, take the call and stop avoidable wrangles.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

CARBON CUTS: PENALTY OR INSURANCE?

SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR

 

There are two versions of the global warming story playing out at the Copenhagen summit. What you usually hear is the pop version, pushed by many NGOs and politicians. Less popular but more cogent is the scientific version, which is altogether more nuanced.

The pop version claims that science has proved that global warming that will devastate the earth, that carbon dioxide is a pollutant no less than sewage or radioactive waste, that the west — and, above all, the US — has created most of the carbon in the atmosphere and that on the 'polluter pays' principle, the rich polluters — and not than innocents in the Third World — should pay for cleaning up the pollution.

The scientific version says that our knowledge of the climate suffers from many uncertainties. Nevertheless, we can definitely say that certain gases — notably carbon dioxide and methane — trap the sun's heat as in a greenhouse, causing warming. This greenhouse effect may be offset or exacerbated by other factors that we do not know enough about and, hence, refer to as natural variations. If our scientific knowledge of climate was at all adequate — as in the case of the movement of planets — we could say exactly what the temperature in 2100 would be, just as we can say what the exact position of the sun and moon will be on January 1, 2100. But since our climate knowledge is so limited, we can only make educated guesses.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced a string of guesstimates based on computer models. These guesstimates suggest warming in the range 1.1-6.4° C. The lower end of this range implies warming so minimal that we would scarcely notice it. But warming of 6.4° C could produce catastrophic changes in the climate, sea levels and agriculture. All IPCC reports list key uncertainties affecting the models. So, actual warming could be less than 1.1° C or more than 6.4° C.

This uncertainty does not mean that humans should ignore global warming. Despite uncertainties, we know that greenhouse gases create a significant chance of a climate catastrophe. Prudent people will take out insurance against a catastrophe that may never happen. The cost of limiting carbon emissions can be viewed as a worthwhile insurance premium.

The scientific version of the global warming story (we need an insurance policy) is less dramatic than the pop version (we must penalise the sinners). Both versions lead to the conclusion that emissions should be reduced, but have quite different implications for who should pay how much.

If we knew for certain that carbon was a catastrophic culprit, we could apply the polluter pays principle. There would still be questions on whether to use absolute emission, per-capita emissions, historical accumulation of emissions or some mix of the three in prescribing penalties. Nevertheless, the polluter pays principle could help Copenhagen reach a unanimous conclusion.

However, if we view carbon reduction as insurance against a disaster that may never happen, it becomes more difficult to decide who should pay what premium. The insurance version regards carbon as a possible pollutant but not a proven one, and this makes it difficult to apply polluter pays rule.

Moreover, you cannot be a beneficiary of an insurance policy if you pay no premium at all. Insurance companies can ask some beneficiaries to pay more than others, especially those with a bad track record, and so, historically, heavy emitters could be asked to pay more. But all countries would be beneficiaries of global mitigation, and so all would need to pay a basic premium. In the pop version (sin and penalty), the entire cost burden could legitimately be placed on rich polluters. But not in the insurance version.

India and other developing countries have stressed the per-capita approach to emissions that has the advantage of letting them off the hook completely in the sin-and-penalty version. Of course, developing countries also cite the per-capita principle as a high moral one, saying every human being is entitled to an equal share of the global commons. This argument certainly has some force.

However, the per-capita approach becomes quite inconvenient for India in the insurance version. Every human benefits from carbon reduction, so every human should pay a premium. The vast majority of humans and, hence, the vast majority of beneficiaries of the insurance policy, are in the Third World. The Chinese and Indians number more than a billion beneficiaries each. It is not logical for 300 million Americans to pay an insurance premium that benefits two billion non-paying Indians and Chinese. The US rejects the sin-and-penalty thesis, and so refuses to accept that China and India should pay nothing while the US shoulders the entire financial burden.

Current negotiations focus almost entirely on carbon dioxide, although other gases (notably methane) account for half the greenhouse effect. Methane comes from many sources, including rice paddies, sheep and cattle. So, countries growing rice and rearing sheep and cattle contribute to warming too. Methane emissions are tiny compared with carbon emissions. But rice growers have been putting methane into the atmosphere for thousands of years, whereas the western countries have been putting carbon dioxide into the air for barely 250 years.

Hence, the situation is complicated. The pop version divides the world into good and bad guys, rather like the George W Bush's version of history, and calls for waterboarding the bad guys. The scientific version has no clear-cut good and bad guys.

 

Countries at Copenhagen cannot possibly agree unanimously either on the sin-and-penalty version or the insurance version. Different countries will draw to different degrees on the two versions, mainly with a view to limiting their commitment. Unanimous agreement on a single set of principles looks impossible. What seem likely are different non-binding commitments from different countries. These will add up to far less than what sin-and-penalty NGOs demand. But many Americans will believe that Obama's limited commitment constitutes a reasonable insurance premium. The debate may continue unresolved for decades.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

WE WANT TO REPLICATE HDFC-ERGO ON LIFE SIDE: NIKOLAUS VON BOMHARD

MAYUR SHETTY

 

Nikolaus von Bomhard, chairman of the board of management, Munich Re — the reinsurance giant — speaks of how industry may not have the capacity to insure weather events in an interview with Mayur Shetty.

AS the world debates global warming in Copenhagen, one multinational group eagerly waiting the outcome is Munich Re, the reinsurance giant which suffers the direct impact of climate change more than anybody.

The group, which is among the largest reinsurers in the world, experienced the worst weather losses following Hurricane Katrina. According to Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE, the average number of major weather-related catastrophes such as windstorms, floods or droughts is now three times as high as at the beginning of the 1980s.

From being involved in massive projects to tap solar power in the Sahara desert to investing in green companies, Munich Re is doing its best to influence policies for preventing global warming. The reinsurer is also betting big on India, which is one of the few countries where all its business divisions are present. Following are the excerpts of the interview:

No company is more directly impacted by weather incidents than Munich Re. What are your concerns?

As an insurance conglomerate with a big reinsurance business, we have to be interested in what goes on with all weather-related perils. Climate is certainly a driver in this development. It is not whether we are in or out of business. One thing that's certain is, if exposures grow without limits, the insurance company will have a hard time coming up with the capacity to digest the exposure.

We sometimes get asked whether it makes sense for us to combat climate change because as an alternate we could manage our business away from this risk. But every insurer and reinsurer knows that active prevention of risk is part of the product. It is therefore not just about availability of capacity, but about prevention as well. We feel that if you do not step in now (to combat climate change) it will grow out of proportion and the insurance industry with all the capacity at hand will not be in a position to cover the exposure out there.

What can you do as a reinsurer?

The insurance-reinsurance industry by putting a price on the risk is providing the strongest incentive possible -- an economic incentive. To preach people to do this or do that is difficult in a world of ours. In insurance you say, increase your retention (of risk) and the price will come down. Increasing retention would go along with better protection against risks.

 

But countries that are fully compliant may still suffer because of overall global warming...

That is the common tragedy. We cannot influence countries, we can only inform them. We have certain knowledge at hand. Since the mid-70s we have been sharing information on what we know and this in a way also influences politicians. Politicians come to see us because we are perceived as an objective knowledge carrier. Also, if prices for certain products -- homeowners' policies for one -- go up because climate change increases the risk of hurricanes, it very quickly becomes a political issue. So, there is an indirect influence on governments as well.

 

But the trend risk can only be stopped by cooperation of countries. That is why we think that something needs to be done at the political level. That is why it is important that not just a group of countries commits to limiting or reducing its emissions... it is important that all the emitters of greenhouse gases do so.

Have you established the relationship between climate change and weather incidents?

One should be careful in coming out with a cause and effect argument. But one thing is for sure -- we have global warming. There is no question about it. There is global warming and it is anthropogenic (caused by environment degradation). The question is -- to what extent does global warming already affect the amount and severity of losses.

We think, yes there is a connection. At present, most of the increases in weather losses are driven by the density and penetration of insured values. But on top of that it is the trend risk which adds to the losses because of the increase in intensities of hurricanes, for example. We have also had more droughts and more heat waves. So, along with the increase in value, you have the increase in trend risk.

 

Besides weather, what are your views on terror... another risk that is considered uninsurable?

We do not consider weather-related risk to be uninsurable. The only exception depending on the country could be flood or inundation that has to with anti-selection as well. Terrorism is more difficult to handle because it is a man-made risk and does not lend itself to actuarial sciences. We have to work with scenarios, which does not mean that you can't insure it (terrorism loss) entirely but you have to stay within the frequency band of the losses.

There is a need to involve governments and to have public-private partnerships to deal with these risks. In the old days, when terrorism was a very local event, losses were insurable. Since we have this global scale of terrorism with very evil planning to cause the maximum possible loss to life and property it is a different scale of terrorism today and we have a hard time modelling. Capital is lacking to fully insure against it.

So it is a bit like nuclear or war risk?

A nuclear attack from a terrorist is not unimaginable. A nuclear incident still lends itself better to modelling than a human attack. Nuclear incidents are insured to certain extent but not entirely. In most countries they have pools which take the bottom part of the risks. On top of that you tend to have a government scheme.

So, the capacity of insurers is not enough for nuclear incidents either. Active war risk is difficult to insure because the dimensions are such that not even with capital market support can you underwrite the risk.

Since Munich Re has escaped the worst of the crisis, would you be looking at acquisitions?

We always look at acquisition but everything should be right and unfortunately that's not the case. The likelihood of an acquisition is not high as asset prices have not come down yet. We would have expected them to come down a long time ago when the crisis was at its peak... so far not much has happened. So, the changes will depend on the course the crisis would take as well.

What are your plans for India?

India is the only country where the group is active in all segments (reinsurance, health, non-life, and proposed life insurance). Other than India it is only in Germany and Italy that we are present across all segments.... even in China we are present only in two.

 

What kind of a partner are you looking for in life insurance?

I would say a partner as professional as HDFC. We want to replicate the HDFC Ergo story on the life side. We want the best partner because we don't want to change horses on course.

 

How will a branch licence in India help you?

A branch will allow us to have a larger footprint here. We can offer directly the entire capacity of Munich Re. For an economy of the size of India, we think it is more worthwhile to be present through a branch than have only a representative office.

Normally, if it is truly a branch you should not have separate capital requirement. It depends on recognition of supervisory regime in countries. Sometimes there is a minimum requirement and it really depends... a branch is not a 'daughter' company which is why it should be different. We try to avoid maintaining capital... we think that the client is served best if we concentrate the capital in one place.

For that, to the extent possible, we try not to have daughter companies. We are re-branching daughter companies. Munich Re had a subsidiary in Italy which has been converted into a branch. In India, we would go for a branch as far as possible but it certainly would depend on the all the rules that come along with the licence.

A little more than a year ago, Munich Re was returning capital to shareholders as you felt that the market was too soft. How are things now?

In India, the reinsurance market (price) has not hardened yet, so our share in the market is generally below what used to be our market share. Detariffication has taken its course and it would take a little more time (for rates to stabilise). It seems to be bottoming out. But until this is reflected in the reinsurance side, we would very selectively do our underwriting.

Internationally, it depends on where you are and what business you write... we think that reinsurance rates would move sideways. We have a threshold and if the business cannot pass the threshold we will not sell cover. Although most renewals happen before January, the market trend is to wait longer and we don't think we will get a clearer picture until after 15-20 days.

 

***************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

WE WANT TO REPLICATE HDFC-ERGO ON LIFE SIDE: NIKOLAUS VON BOMHARD

MAYUR SHETTY

 

Nikolaus von Bomhard, chairman of the board of management, Munich Re — the reinsurance giant — speaks of how industry may not have the capacity to insure weather events in an interview with Mayur Shetty.

AS the world debates global warming in Copenhagen, one multinational group eagerly waiting the outcome is Munich Re, the reinsurance giant which suffers the direct impact of climate change more than anybody.

The group, which is among the largest reinsurers in the world, experienced the worst weather losses following Hurricane Katrina. According to Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE, the average number of major weather-related catastrophes such as windstorms, floods or droughts is now three times as high as at the beginning of the 1980s.

From being involved in massive projects to tap solar power in the Sahara desert to investing in green companies, Munich Re is doing its best to influence policies for preventing global warming. The reinsurer is also betting big on India, which is one of the few countries where all its business divisions are present. Following are the excerpts of the interview:

No company is more directly impacted by weather incidents than Munich Re. What are your concerns?

As an insurance conglomerate with a big reinsurance business, we have to be interested in what goes on with all weather-related perils. Climate is certainly a driver in this development. It is not whether we are in or out of business. One thing that's certain is, if exposures grow without limits, the insurance company will have a hard time coming up with the capacity to digest the exposure.

We sometimes get asked whether it makes sense for us to combat climate change because as an alternate we could manage our business away from this risk. But every insurer and reinsurer knows that active prevention of risk is part of the product. It is therefore not just about availability of capacity, but about prevention as well. We feel that if you do not step in now (to combat climate change) it will grow out of proportion and the insurance industry with all the capacity at hand will not be in a position to cover the exposure out there.

What can you do as a reinsurer?

The insurance-reinsurance industry by putting a price on the risk is providing the strongest incentive possible -- an economic incentive. To preach people to do this or do that is difficult in a world of ours. In insurance you say, increase your retention (of risk) and the price will come down. Increasing retention would go along with better protection against risks.

But countries that are fully compliant may still suffer because of overall global warming...

That is the common tragedy. We cannot influence countries, we can only inform them. We have certain knowledge at hand. Since the mid-70s we have been sharing information on what we know and this in a way also influences politicians. Politicians come to see us because we are perceived as an objective knowledge carrier. Also, if prices for certain products -- homeowners' policies for one -- go up because climate change increases the risk of hurricanes, it very quickly becomes a political issue. So, there is an indirect influence on governments as well.

But the trend risk can only be stopped by cooperation of countries. That is why we think that something needs to be done at the political level. That is why it is important that not just a group of countries commits to limiting or reducing its emissions... it is important that all the emitters of greenhouse gases do so.

Have you established the relationship between climate change and weather incidents?

One should be careful in coming out with a cause and effect argument. But one thing is for sure -- we have global warming. There is no question about it. There is global warming and it is anthropogenic (caused by environment degradation). The question is -- to what extent does global warming already affect the amount and severity of losses.

We think, yes there is a connection. At present, most of the increases in weather losses are driven by the density and penetration of insured values. But on top of that it is the trend risk which adds to the losses because of the increase in intensities of hurricanes, for example. We have also had more droughts and more heat waves. So, along with the increase in value, you have the increase in trend risk.

Besides weather, what are your views on terror... another risk that is considered uninsurable?

We do not consider weather-related risk to be uninsurable. The only exception depending on the country could be flood or inundation that has to with anti-selection as well. Terrorism is more difficult to handle because it is a man-made risk and does not lend itself to actuarial sciences. We have to work with scenarios, which does not mean that you can't insure it (terrorism loss) entirely but you have to stay within the frequency band of the losses.

There is a need to involve governments and to have public-private partnerships to deal with these risks. In the old days, when terrorism was a very local event, losses were insurable. Since we have this global scale of terrorism with very evil planning to cause the maximum possible loss to life and property it is a different scale of terrorism today and we have a hard time modelling. Capital is lacking to fully insure against it.

So it is a bit like nuclear or war risk?

A nuclear attack from a terrorist is not unimaginable. A nuclear incident still lends itself better to modelling than a human attack. Nuclear incidents are insured to certain extent but not entirely. In most countries they have pools which take the bottom part of the risks. On top of that you tend to have a government scheme.

So, the capacity of insurers is not enough for nuclear incidents either. Active war risk is difficult to insure because the dimensions are such that not even with capital market support can you underwrite the risk.

Since Munich Re has escaped the worst of the crisis, would you be looking at acquisitions?

We always look at acquisition but everything should be right and unfortunately that's not the case. The likelihood of an acquisition is not high as asset prices have not come down yet. We would have expected them to come down a long time ago when the crisis was at its peak... so far not much has happened. So, the changes will depend on the course the crisis would take as well.

What are your plans for India?

India is the only country where the group is active in all segments (reinsurance, health, non-life, and proposed life insurance). Other than India it is only in Germany and Italy that we are present across all segments.... even in China we are present only in two.

What kind of a partner are you looking for in life insurance?

I would say a partner as professional as HDFC. We want to replicate the HDFC Ergo story on the life side. We want the best partner because we don't want to change horses on course.

How will a branch licence in India help you?

A branch will allow us to have a larger footprint here. We can offer directly the entire capacity of Munich Re. For an economy of the size of India, we think it is more worthwhile to be present through a branch than have only a representative office.

Normally, if it is truly a branch you should not have separate capital requirement. It depends on recognition of supervisory regime in countries. Sometimes there is a minimum requirement and it really depends... a branch is not a 'daughter' company which is why it should be different. We try to avoid maintaining capital... we think that the client is served best if we concentrate the capital in one place.

For that, to the extent possible, we try not to have daughter companies. We are re-branching daughter companies. Munich Re had a subsidiary in Italy which has been converted into a branch. In India, we would go for a branch as far as possible but it certainly would depend on the all the rules that come along with the licence.

A little more than a year ago, Munich Re was returning capital to shareholders as you felt that the market was too soft. How are things now?

In India, the reinsurance market (price) has not hardened yet, so our share in the market is generally below what used to be our market share. Detariffication has taken its course and it would take a little more time (for rates to stabilise). It seems to be bottoming out. But until this is reflected in the reinsurance side, we would very selectively do our underwriting.

Internationally, it depends on where you are and what business you write... we think that reinsurance rates would move sideways. We have a threshold and if the business cannot pass the threshold we will not sell cover. Although most renewals happen before January, the market trend is to wait longer and we don't think we will get a clearer picture until after 15-20 days.

 

***************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

REGULATION CAN BE ENLIGHTENED AND UNOBTRUSIVE: KHURSHID

 

Corporate Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid has a tough job at hand. He is putting in place a regulatory framework that will make India Inc more responsible, not just to shareholders, but also to the community. Mr Khurshid spoke about the key issues and regulatory challenges in an interaction with ET's editorial team. Excerpts:

What are the key issues before your ministry?

The Companies Bill is before Parliament, on which a lot of views are coming. But three items are significant. One issue is regulation. Some people think that regulation is a matter of the past, which I think is not correct. Regulation is not a matter of past, but control is. Regulation can be made enlightened, responsible and unobtrusive.

The second is corporate social responsibility (CSR), we are looking at a code which will be voluntary. The code will be an agreed set of best practices coming from the industry, so we will have our inputs there. Another important aspect is shareholders democracy and empowerment of shareholders in company affairs.

What do you exactly mean by shareholders democracy and how will that be achieved? What about the role of the board of directors?

Shareholder democracy means we give primacy to company, its shareholders. We don't give primacy to what we want, rather, give primacy to what they want. Empowernment of shareholders, which means greater disclosure, accountability and a structure whereby they can have a meaningful stake.

If you walk into a board room, you will have 1,500 pages to read. What can you do? You come out two hours later and say that I have said OK. The directors should be given enough time to read. He will be accountable for the decision that he has taken. We must tell them in advance that this is what you will be accountable for, beyond this only on actual knowledge and not imputed or implied knowledge.

What do you have to say on remuneration of directors?

Today, in the law, there is a cap on the remuneration of directors of a company, which is 11 per cent of the net profits. I am surprised that in the entire debate on directors' remuneration, nobody talked about the cap.

One factor is that remuneration should be decided by the shareholders. The draft Companies Bill does not have the cap, but what has happened since the draft Bill was made –– Satyam, collapse of Wall Street, Obama's greed statement, RBI saying bankers' salary must be cut, a general issue of our austerity. Now we have to decide—shall we remove the cap or should we not remove the cap?

Today the law says if you want to take a salary higher than the cap, you have to approach the government. About 2-2.5 per cent of the companies come for approval. And out of this 2-2.5 per cent, many are towards outstanding salaries for professionals whom you want to bring from abroad.

Let me tell you, industry—from what I have been given to understand—has preferred a cap. The ministry said no cap. I don't know what the parliamentary committee will appreciate.

How do you plan to encourage companies for a greater involvement in CSR activities?

I think we have to give CSR a quantifiable formula and link it to some incentive. You cannot keep talking to people that CSR activities are good for mankind and it can be a voluntary thing. Beyond a point, it may be difficult to get the kind of fusion that we want, which is CSR. And there must be a way of quantifying it and making it available for traders or an exchange dealing in CSR credits.

Today, for charity you get tax exemptions, but get nothing for CSR. Disincentive comes much later. Can we say that if you improve your profile in the next three years, you will stand to gain the following things, something which is reasonable, flexible and viable? YC Deveshwar has extended his support. Arun Maira (Planning Commission member) has stayed away from it as he said somebody could make use of this in a wrong manner.

The CCI merger regulations are pending with the ministry. Is there a lack of consensus on whether certain sectors should be exempted from the scope of CCI?

The issue is if there should be exemption for sectors, and then again if such exemption should be blanket exemption or a case-to-case exemption. If you give a blanket exemption, we have to see what the general principle is. There are reservations on this issue in the government.

Will foreign audit firms in India, like the Big 4, be made accountable for their work in India?

Big 4 should actually be allowed to practice in India, and made to sign the balance sheets that they have audited. You can only make a firm accountable if its has its name against that activity. But our chaps have to take a stand first.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

'WE'VE GOT MONEY. WE WON'T MIND BUYING QUALITY ASSETS'

GEORGE CHERIAN

 

He's one of the most outspoken people in the mutual fund industry. UK Sinha, CMD of UTI Asset Management Company, who's still waiting for the ink to dry on the strategic stake sale to T Rowe Price, is gung-ho on what the new partner can do to the fortunes of the mutual fund. But he's also of the view that there are far too many players in the asset management space. In an interview with ET NOW, he says that the government needs to get serious about pension reforms, and that maybe, the equity market has run up too fast, too soon. Excerpts:

You've brought T Rowe Price as a strategic partner into UTI. But the general thinking is that you got a very low valuation on the deal. Would you agree?

No valuation can be made in a static environment. You can't quote a particular valuation which was done in 2006 or 2007. But if you look at the changes that have happened in the industry, for example, the changes made by Sebi effective August 1, 2009, and how a good portion of the revenues of AMCs is going into paying out distributors, that has affected the earnings of mutual funds in a big way. So, you have to look at valuations in the current environment, and lastly, instead of looking at some of the transactions which happened 2-5 years ago, if you look at some transactions that happened a few months ago, then you will be able to come to a better understanding.

Apart from representation on the board, can we expect that T Rowe Price will play a larger role in day-to-day affairs of the asset management company?

The arrangement that the shareholders have negotiated with T Rowe Price is that there would be no change of management. The new shareholders are happy with the quality of the management here that they have not asked for any change. But at the same time, they are going to assist us. T Rowe Price is known to be a hugely system-driven and process-oriented company. They are known to be long-term investors, they are guided by research, they challenge their research process. So, they are going to help us in our research, our fund management. In technology, they are very good. They have large funds. So, with the distribution support of T Rowe Price, we expect inflows into our international business.

You have spoken in the past about doing an IPO. Where does that plan stand now, given that we've seen a turnaround in the equity market?

We have a strategic partner. So, it won't make any sense for UTI to come out with an IPO in the short-term. It's
very important that this arrangement takes shape, it stabilises, the benefits of the strategic partnership flows to the company and T Rowe Price is recognised by the outside world. My feeling is it will take at least another 12-24 months. So, any further change in the shareholding should be considered by our shareholders at that stage. Government approval is already in place for divestment of up to 49%. But the IPO should wait for at least 12 months.

Do you believe there is room for so many mutual fund players? Can we expect to see consolidation over the next few years? Also, would UTI look at any acquisition opportunities that come its way?

Actually, there's a study that suggests there isn't room for even 10 players in this market. The way mutual funds have been sold in India for the past 2-3 years, I have been of the view that consolidation is round the corner. If you are trying to increase only your topline and get high rankings by way of assets under management, but your earnings are negligible, then it is not a sustainable model. It is only a matter of time before the shareholders decide that enough is enough. This goes back to the issue of valuations. Many people thought that valuations could be achieved on the basis of AUM. So, many players were trying to ramp up their AUM at any cost. My feeling is that after the Sebi guidelines effective August 1, this bluff has stopped. Now, you have to put in serious money if you want to increase your AUM. I think, consolidation will happen sooner than later. UTI is a profitable company, we have got money, we have the reserves and we won't mind buying good quality assets.

You have been appointed a pension fund manager under the New Pension System for both government and non-government employees. What's the experience been so far?

It's been very disappointing. I feel that the government needs to do a serious rethink on its policy on pension reforms in this country. The expectation was that the PFRDA would be the lead pension regulator in the country. Unfortunately, the Bill, which is being presented in Parliament, doesn't have that provision. So, even if the Bill is passed, it is not going to make any difference to workers in the unorganised sector, because it is completely voluntary. So, a worker can go to an IRDA-regulated entity, a Sebi-regulated entity, you can go to the Department of Posts, you can go to PPF or you can go to the PFRDA. There's no sense of direction then. Even for government employees' pension, the record-keeping is not up to date. The whole approach needs a rethink.

There's a general feeling that Trustees merely lend their names to AMCs and don't play an effective role in monitoring their activities. Do you believe there is a need to review their working?

In practical terms, I don't think, there is scope for any substantive progress in this direction. We, for instance, have very reputed and eminent people as Trustees. In our case, the Trustee meeting takes place separately from the AMC which is the way it should be. But that is not the practice in the industry. If the company has a culture of treating the Trustees in a manner that is identical to the purpose for which they are there, then I think, there is no problem.

Do you think the equity market has run up too fast, too soon?

The market is trading at 16-16.5 times forward earnings. If you look at the way it has grown from January to now, it has grown rather too fast. The market has grown due to liquidity which is externally-driven rather than because of some fundamental changes in the market or the economy. But it is also true that that liquidity has to flow somewhere. If it doesn't come to India, it will go to some other country and fund managers have to be ready to deal with such situations. We still feel that there are certain sectors where there are some opportunities. Our approach is one of caution. We're not gung-ho at this level.

 

At the same time, we are looking closely at specific companies and specific sectors and trying to find out which are the likely winners. So, we are doing stock picking rather than going purely after the index.

 

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                                                                                                               DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

NEW DIMENSION TO AN OLD RELATIONSHIP

 

 CThe terms of the nuclear agreement with Russia signed during the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to Moscow this week emphasise the extraordinary relations between the two countries that have transcended change of systems, regime change, and the difference in political and social systems between them. Unlike in the case of the United States, in which close cooperation at the people-to-people level existed even when the two countries had uneasy relations until the end of the Cold War, India's ties with Moscow have burgeoned over half a century in the absence of that factor, suggesting the presence of an underlying geostrategic matrix that has stood the test of time. In the aftermath of the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the security and strategic dimension of the relationship cooled for a time. Russia for the first time then endorsed the idea that India should sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and be subjected to full-scope safeguards for its nuclear reactors. But this phase was not to last long. And now Russia has signed a civil nuclear agreement that is unlikely with any Western country, especially the United States. Under this, the Russian supply of fuel for nuclear reactors provided by it will not cease even when the horizon of the agreement is reached. More, in its dealings with India, Russia will not be a party to a G-8 understanding that proscribes the offer of reprocessing and enrichment technology to countries that have not signed the NPT. At one stroke, this understanding helps India overcome the restrictions imposed by the 123 Agreement with the United States. Until February this year, when it was displaced by Israel, Russia had been this country's largest defence supplier. Over a period of 40 years, according to a study by the US Library of Congress, Russia annually supplied India with military equipment worth $875 million across the range, although this country offered Moscow no base or berthing facilities. And the relations were far from being only defence-oriented. They stretched through the spectrum, covering the economy, trade, space, culture and politics.

 

Through the last half of the 20th century, Moscow's veto in the UN Security Council greatly helped India sustain its position on Kashmir. The convergence of interests between Moscow and New Delhi are now slated to extend common ground on the question of extremism and terrorism, and on the issue of Afghanistan, where India is committed over the long term. Both sides clearly understand, of course, that their mutual relations cannot be exclusive of that with a third country. For both, bilateral ties with the US are of the highest importance. And yet, neither has a congruence or near coincidence of interests on key regional and international questions with Washington, while they pretty much do with one another. Unlike Washington, in the foreseeable future, Moscow is not obliged to balance its ties with Islamabad or Beijing when dealing with New Delhi. This imparts a certain quality to their partnership. It is not far-fetched to say that Russia remains India's basic counterweight on critical issues in the Security Council, although by now India has moved away from a single-country reliance regime. Depending on the issue, it can find Security Council endorsement among several Western powers. Russia's economic rise in the post-Cold War era depended considerably on its vast oil and natural gas resources. With the prices of these commodities much lower than before, Moscow has recognised the value of doing business with a country of India's size, with its vast markets for civilian and military goods and services. The relationship is happily a two-way affair with sufficient natural adhesive to keep it going.

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

INFERNAL AFFAIRS

BY INDER MALHOTRA

 

On a single day in the last week of October the morning papers published three items about the grand march of corruption that has become so integral a part of governance of this country that most people have become inured to what should normally generate outrage. The first of the disturbing three pieces of information was that the acting chairman of the Company Law Board (CLB), whose job it is to prevent fraud and venality among corporate crooks, was himself arrested "red-handed" while accepting a bribe of Rs 7 lakhs from the owners of a company arraigned before the CLB — Rs 55 lakhs in cash were "recovered" from the worthy's house, and subsequent raids unearthed another Rs 1 crore in various bank accounts of the acting CLB chief by then behind bars. This is a classic case of the fence eating up the field.

The second item disclosed that Russians had paid Rs 120 crores to the top functionaries of the National Thermal Power Corporation to secure a hyper-lucrative contract. If any action is being taken in this connection, the country has yet to hear of it. The third news report was even more bizarre. It disclosed that in the nation's capital there were several thousand employees of the New Delhi Municipal Corporation (NDMC) that existed only on its payrolls. Their salaries were, of course, drawn regularly and evidently lined the pockets of those controlling the municipal affairs. A few days later the NDMC announced loftily that it had stopped payments to the ghost employees but has said not a word about those who have pocketed huge amounts all these years.
Though shocking, these three cases are relatively minor, compared with the two blockbuster instances of loot — the former Jharkand Chief Minister, Mr Madhu Koda's miracle of allegedly amassing Rs 4,000 crore in a span of two years and the scandal of the G2 spectrum sold on the "first-come-first-served" basis by the communications minister, Mr A. Raja. Over these there had been understandable upheaval in both Parliament and the media that, as usual, has yielded place to total silence. However, Mr Koda has at long last been arrested after thumbing his nose for weeks at the enforcement and income-tax authorities demanding his appearance before them.

One of the Prime Minister's advisers has described the G2 scam as a "learning experience". In reality, it was an "earning experience" because the loss to the exchequer was the mind-boggling Rs 60,000 crore.

Let us face the fact that corruption in India is nothing new but goes back millennia. Over 2,500 years ago, Kautilya catalogued 40 different ways in which the king's minions were "bound to cheat him of his revenue". By the time of the Mughals, corruption had acquired the nickname "mamool" (usual) that is used in Hyderabad even today. The epithet "hafta" (weekly payment) is an invention of the British era. However, never before have corruption and graft in this country been so humongous, so ubiquitous and so tolerated as now. In Nehru's time, his minister for oil, Keshav Dev Malaviya, had to resign because he had accepted a contribution to his election chest of Rs 10,000 from an Orissa mine owner who had dealings with his ministry.

Even the Bofors scandal, considered the mother of all scams no more than 23 years ago, involved kickbacks totaling Rs 64 crores, which is piffle compared with the staggering amounts currently changing hands. Also, six successive governments, two of them committed to exposing the "guilty" men, were unable to name the beneficiaries of the Bofors bribes. Strangely, no one has bothered at all about the Rs 133 crores sent in the dead of night in P.V. Narasimha Rao's time to a dubious Turkish company ostensibly for the import of urea. Not a flake of urea ever arrived. Nor was a penny of Rs 133 crores ever returned because there wasn't even a bank guarantee.

In a famous, if also self-serving, statement Indira Gandhi once said that corruption was a "global phenomenon". True enough, there is a degree of corruption in almost every country as Transparency International reports every year. But is there any place on earth, apart from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, where the poorest of the poor are forced to pay bribes to get elementary services that are available in civilised societies as a matter of course?

An independent study in 2007 showed that in 2006, Indians living below poverty line had paid as bribes a "staggering Rs 883 crore" of which the police had claimed nearly a fourth. The rest of the money was devoured by the public distribution system, electricity connections, water supply et al. The Right to Information Act, public-spirited non-governmental organisations and whistleblowers have since made some dent in the worst features of corruption but not much.

The bottom line is that no one with a gift of the grab — and their number in the political power structure, bureaucracy and business and industry is legion — is ever punished because thanks to perverted investigations and unspeakable judicial delays no corruption case ever reaches the stage of conviction or acquittal.
It is against this bleak backdrop that two other curses of "Corrupt India" must be viewed. First, while every political party is infested with money-grubbers, every major case of corruption is immediately politicised. Though itself in disarray, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was quick to blame the Congress for protecting both Mr Raja and Mr Koda because it was "partaking of their ill-gotten wealth". But the saffron party forgot that Mr Koda was mining minister in Jharkhand's BJP ministry before becoming chief minister with Congress support. Mr Raja's party adorned Atal Behari Vajpayee's government in Delhi as it does Dr Manmohan Singh's.
Secondly, of late the stain of corruption has reached the highest levels of such venerable institutions as the judiciary and armed forces. In the case of the Karnataka Chief Justice all concerned are busy passing the buck. The Darjeeling land scam has brought under the scanner the highest Army officers. The Chief of the Army Staff angrily states that it is wrong "prematurely" to judge the issue. Fair enough, but will he make sure that the ban on a premature finding does not become permanent?

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

AFGHANISTAN AND US PRESIDENT'S THREE CS

BY ROGER COHEN

 

The most important line in the US President, Mr Barack Obama's Afghan speech was not about AfPak policy (so named by the White House) but about the US domestic situation: "Our troop commitment in Afghanistan cannot be open-ended — because the nation that I am most interested in building is our own".

As military strategy for winning a war the speech made little sense. You don't need to be Carl von Clausewitz to know that the commitment of 30,000 troops combined with the establishment of proximate date for the start of their withdrawal is not going to break the will of an enemy or destroy its centre of gravity.
But as a political statement and as an acknowledgment of the limits of American power after the first decade of the 21st century, the speech was adroit.

Saying troop drawdown will begin in July 2011, without saying at what rate or to what extent, is not a bad way to pressure the Afghan President, Mr Hamid Karzai, to get with the programme while leaving needed US options open for averting the worst in an area with an estimated 80 to 100 Pakistani nuclear warheads.
Those warheads and the virulence of anti-Western political Islam in "AfPakistan" mean US wagons will not be pulling out completely for a long time. Exit ramps are really easing ramps and political signals. As US defence secretary Robert Gates said after the speech, "We must not repeat the mistake of 1989 and turn our backs on these folks".
But nor can America turn its back on itself.
It cannot forever languish in a la-la land where the great global security underwriter and the great global debtor never encounter each other, dishing out billions for far-flung fights with one hand and condemning the next generation of Americans with the other. The Jekyll-and-Hyde years have to end.

The Taliban may never go away but they do sleep. Debt doesn't.

So, as the delirious decade draws to a close — a period in which America was upended by 9/11 and close to one trillion dollars was spent on the Afghan and Iraq wars — the realism of Obama is welcome. It takes getting used to — idealism propelled him after all. The three presidential Cs (cool, controlled, cerebral) can get to people; they've gotten to me at times. Still, Obama is right; America needs a heavy dose of nation-building that's incompatible with ever escalating military commitments.

The United States is buried in debt, personal and collective, after a decade in which median incomes for the average working stiff fell, and more Americans dropped below the poverty line, and the number of Americans without health insurance rose. Unemployment is above French levels without French welfare. Enough said.
A lot of Americans are worried sick. The friendly loan packagers who were doling out money like risk no longer existed have taken real exit ramps — they've vanished.

Leading by example has to mean something. If the US government doesn't care what it spends, citizens aren't going to either — and the dollar's plunge will become irreversible. Just look at the record of the bomb-and-shop years since 2001.

Polonius had some good advice for Laertes in Hamlet:

Neither a borrower nor alender beFor loan oft loses both itself and friend,And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.This above all: to thine own self be true...Or, as Proverbs 22:7 puts it in the Bible: "The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender".

Everything from the nation's relationship with China to Americans' buying decisions in this holiday season is being affected by that venerable precept. President Obama cannot be impervious to it. He especially cannot be impervious to it because the great bailout that has unfolded on his watch has salvaged Wall Street and its bonuses while doing little for Main Street and jobs. Paying for mistakes has been inequitably divided. The derivatives crowd is still golfing; the rivets crowd is wondering what happened to manufacturing. Obama's "truth to himself" demands that he do better.

That begins with risk-is-shared healthcare reform. It involves re-learning husbandry. It's going to take innovation, education and long-term thinking. And it's going to demand trade-offs.
In acknowledging these trade-offs, and putting the world on notice about America's future capacity as global security underwriter, Obama turned an Afghan speech into perhaps the most important domestic pronouncement of his presidency.

 

There are some things I want to correct and clear up about a column, Of fruit flies and drones (November 14). I suggested that research being done on fruit flies at the California Institute of Technology was done for military purposes.

The research does receive military funding, but the director of the laboratory, Michael H. Dickinson, is a zoologist who studies insect neurobiology and neither he nor his lab contribute directly to the development of robots, drones or weapons. I did not speak to Professor Dickinson. A source I identified as a graduate student is in fact a former graduate student who works part-time as a technician in the lab. Finally, biomechanics refers to the application of mechanical principles to living organisms — not the application of living organisms to mechanisms.

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

ASSAM: FORGET RHETORIC, GET REAL

BY SANJOY HAZARIKA

 

While facts surrounding the capture of United Liberation Front of Asom (Ulfa) chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa are shrouded in mystery and might not be known for some time, the situation remains murky. This has not been helped by varying government statements: one that he was arrested and another that he had surrendered. This was countered by Rajkhowa's emphatic declaration that he had not given up and would not.

Rajkhowa's seizure and whisking out of Bangladesh has all the makings of a spy thriller. What is clear is that he did not come willingly; he was intercepted, apparently by the Bangladeshis, near Cox's Bazar and then handed over to the Indians. During this period his family members were also united with him.

It was a stunning setback to Ulfa, its most serious since it was formed 30 years back, but also served notice of Bangladesh's determination, and that of its confident Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, not to be hobbled by earlier allegations of permitting and even supporting insurgent groups to use its territory for their goals.

 

Bangladesh, it is said, is deeply worried by the spectre of the disaster in Pakistan which nurtured "friendly" terrorists for decades and is determined to ensure nothing like that is repeated in their country. This is also a pointer of how, in foreign policy, nothing works as well as enlightened self-interest!

The middle-aged Ulfa chairman, away from Assam since 1985, also declared, raising his handcuffs, when taken to the district courts — a gesture that drew support even from detractors — that there could be no negotiations with handcuffs! Without a doubt, putting him on display in handcuffs was inappropriate, if not downright foolish, although he has been wanted for long for waging war against the State, a charge that carries very stiff penalties.

Matters were not helped by offhand remarks by Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi that since Rajkhowa, whose real name is Rajiv Rajkonwar, had come back after a long time, "let him have home food"! This was trivialising what was a stunning setback to Ulfa and a tremendous opportunity for peace in the region. Such remarks have drawn the ire of a cross-section of society and interviews by the Assamese press have highlighted the tremendous hunger for peace and dialogue as well as growing confusion and suspicion about the Centre's role in the whole matter.

The government appears determined not to let him out of its sight, possibly recalling the 1992 fiasco when he met then Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, agreed to a ceasefire and to abide by the Constitution, and then backed down after opposition by the cadre and pressure from the elusive Paresh Baruah, who remains at large in the Kachin lands near China where Ulfa has for long had camps and collaborates with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland's (NSCN) Khaplang faction, which too has a ceasefire with the Centre though it is not negotiating with New Delhi unlike its more powerful rival, NSCN (I-M) — which had over 50 rounds of talks, which don't appear to have gone anywhere.

In light of its experience with "unconditional talks" with the Nagas, it is imperative that the Centre clarifies its position on the future of discussions with Ulfa, which is still a banned organisation. People in Assam do not want sovereignty that is a chimera, a pipedream; they are only interested in peace through a political dialogue that will enable delivery of basic services, disrupted by years of conflict. But the Naga example is often held up — although their leaders too wanted sovereignty, New Delhi continues to negotiate with them without conditions. Here too everyone knows there is not going to be any concession on Naga "sovereignty".
Indeed, the years between the 1980s — when Ulfa began its rise — and now cannot be described as anything but the lost decades, when thousands of people died in the state at the hands of government forces as well as those who battled the government, all in the name of fighting for "the people", without ascertaining what the "people" actually wanted.

While those in prison may not be in a position to demand and dictate political concessions, it behoves New Delhi to remember Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's beautiful words a few years ago at the first interaction with Ulfa's representatives, the People's Consultative Group: "I am a servant of the Constitution" responsible to Parliament, the Cabinet and the people of India, he had said, adding he would strive his utmost to give as much as possible within those restrictions which he needed to abide by as the country's elected head.

Rhetoric's romance is over, although it retains some appeal. The time for realism is now: if both sides truly seek the welfare of the people of Assam, then they have no option but to engage, converse, dialogue and develop a process that could forge an agreement which would in turn address some of the long-standing demands and angst of the people of the state and the Northeast. There would need to be give and take; the world has changed in 30 years and both sides need to be acutely cognisant of that.

For while Ulfa's principal political plank does not carry much weight in Assam, some of its other demands on social and economic issues, as many of us have maintained, have a resonance. These have been refined and further articulated by scholars and students, politicians and non-officials, activists and ordinary people and are part of the political and social discourse of the state and the region.

The question of whether Paresh Baruah, the commander-in-chief of the Ulfa's army — much depleted but still capable of striking at vulnerable targets — will take part in any future negotiations is not the issue any longer. Most of his colleagues are in India and in custody — including a majority of the influential Central committee members as well as his own deputy Raju Barua — and these constitute the severest setback to Ulfa in its existence. There is a persistent lack of clarity on where Paresh Baruah is located. But while he may continue to have a contingent of armed men loyal to him in the Kachin province of Burma, not far from the Northeast's borders with Burma, and could theoretically strike back, the question is how long can such a campaign be sustained. This is so especially as across Assam and the entire Northeast there is a fatigue with violence and lost causes and a strong desire for peace. Those who do not recognise this do not understand the state or its people.
Indeed, another question arises: if talks begin, can Paresh Baruah afford to stay out of the loop since he will be unable to communicate directly with his former colleagues, now in jail, and also lacks the numbers he commanded a decade back.

If they truly wish for Assam's welfare — and the state and its people have suffered enough for many years — then both sides need to show more wisdom, realism and restraint than has been visible in the past.

 

Sanjoy Hazarika is an author, journalistand filmmaker

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

A FIGHT FOR RIGHTS THAT ISN'T RIGHT

BY MEENAKSHI GANGULY

 

We met 15-year-old Sunil in a classroom at Tankuppa High School in a remote part of Bihar's Gaya district. It was one of 11 classrooms at the school, but when we visited only three were open for learning. The other eight rooms were occupied by armed men: paramilitary police who have taken over most of the school for the past three years, since their police station was destroyed in a Naxalite attack. The police station has still not been rebuilt, so now it is the students' education that is being wrecked.

Although Tankuppa was supposed to expand to a "plus two" school, teaching Classes 11 and 12, with the security forces already using so many of the classrooms, there is not enough space for all the current students to sit and study, let alone an additional two classes. Sunil, who will soon graduate to Class 11 and wants to continue his studies, is simply unable to live his dream: his family cannot spare the money to send him to even the next-closest school offering higher-level classes.Sunil is one among tens of thousands of students in Bihar and Jharkhand whose education is being disrupted as a result of the Naxalite conflict. On the one hand, the Maoists are blowing up government school buildings. On the other hand, government security forces are occupying schools for days, months, and even years, using them as bases for their anti-Naxalite campaigns. The students are stuck in the middle.

At least 13 schools in Jharkhand have come under Maoist attacks in the past month. The Naxalites claim that they attack schools because they are occupied by security forces, but recent research by Human Rights Watch proves this claim false: at least 25 of the schools they attacked in Bihar and Jharkhand were not being used by security forces at the time. Post attack the structures still leave behind enough solid walls to protect security forces.

Sunil's classmate Indira, 16, says she has trouble concentrating on her lessons. The police bring criminal suspects back to the school and beat them in the schoolyard in view of the children. "I feel very bad when they beat them", she said. Indira also does not like how the police have taken over the school's latrines — this means that she has to use an open field near the school.Other students described how offensive it is when the police bathe in their underwear in front of the girls.

The government claims that the Maoists cannot be defeated just with force and that their threat must also be countered with development. If that is so then the government should remember that access to quality education for India's most marginalised children is an indispensable ingredient for progress. And if the Naxalites seek to justify their bloodshed by saying they are fighting for India's poor, then their destruction of one of the few services that can empower these communities is abhorrently perverse.

Both sides of the conflict should reconsider their misguided policies: The Naxalites will never win legitimacy if they wage a war by picking soft civilian structures, especially when it comes at the cost of India's most disadvantaged children; and the government must consider that although they are responsible for ensuring the safety and security of the civilian population, their current policies and practices are frequently violating children's right to an education, and are thus only providing further fuel to the Maoists.

Sunil told us that his favourite school subject is mathematics. Maybe he can become an accountant when he grows up. But that will happen only if the government and the Maoists, who both claim to be fighting for his future, let him have a safe and secure present.Meenakshi Ganguly works on South Asia for the Asiadivision of Human Rights Watch

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

ONE-UNIT-FAITH

BY NADEEM F. PARACHA

 

Recently, while giving a speech to the Peshawar police, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that no one could separate Islam from Pakistan. One wonders what prompted the Pakistan Army Chief to digress, and start assuring his audience about Pakistan's Islamic credentials. I guess he chose the occasion to comment on the military's take on a (albeit unsubstantiated) news report stating that the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) wanted to change the country's name from Islamic Republic of Pakistan to People's Republic of Pakistan. Even though both the ANP and MQM were quick to refute the news, General Kayani's reassurance in this respect yet again underlines the dilemma the military and the state of Pakistan have been facing for years.

The dilemma constitutes political and ideological factors in which the military has had the biggest stakes; but unfortunately it is also a dilemma which the military has been rather reluctant to resolve. According to respected historians, like the late K.K. Aziz and Dr Mubarak Ali, the whole idea that "Pakistan was made in the name of Islam" and/or as an "Islamic state", was nowhere to be found in the ideological discourse of the state before 1962, when it was first raised by the Jamaat-e-Islami — a party that was opposed to the creation of Pakistan.
Though the civil-bureaucracy conglomerate that presided over the affairs of the state and the government in the 1950s decided to officially start calling the country an "Islamic Republic" (in 1956), there was really no mention of such a republic in the early years of the new country.

Pakistan's founder was a secular Muslim, married to a non-Muslim and a strong defender of the notion that the state should confine its authority to the secular sphere. Throughout the Pakistan Movement, Muhammad Ali Jinnah's party, the Muslim League, overwhelmingly had secular-minded leaders who treated the Muslims of the subcontinent as a separate cultural entity. There is no way that Pakistan was conceived as an Islamic state by its founding fathers. This becomes apparent by the way orthodox Islamic parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami reacted to the creation of Pakistan.

Had Jinnah pictured the new country as an Islamic state, there was no reason why parties like the Jamaat would oppose its creation.

However, unable to convincingly define its ideology, the state started to capitulate in the face of the mounting pressure exerted by the religious parties.

The lack of democracy and its many institutions — initially discarded by the secular military dictatorship of Ayub Khan — is also a prominent reason why the military and the establishment were left stumped by the religious parties' mantra in this respect. What was being repressed in the discourse by the military and the civil establishment was the glaring fact that Pakistan, even as a Muslim country, was a land of great ethnic and sectarian diversity.

Its people constituted Urdu-speakers (Mohajirs), Sindhis, Pathans, Bengalis and many others; and also people belonging to various Islamic sects. By imposing the ruse that Pakistan was "one unit" was a naive evaluation that only ended up alienating the many ethnically distinct strains of Muslims and the minorities that made Pakistan their home.

In other words, Pakistan's identity and ideology should have been squarely based on a democratic acceptance of its ethnic, religious and sectarian diversity, instead of the establishment's rather convoluted "one ideology for all" brand of Islam. We are not an ethnically and culturally homogenous nation following a singular version of Islam, or of the state for that matter as far as religious minorities are concerned.

We are a nation of various groups of diversified people who can remain united as a country with the help of democracy alone. But such a state usually has not gone down well with Islamists — even after years of ethnic, political and religious turmoil and cleavages that the one-unit-Islam has caused across the long dictatorships Pakistan has had to suffer.

It is time our military and religious parties let go of the fear of a democratically accepted, diverse Pakistan; especially the military, which is now fighting a vital battle in the northwest — ironically with the monstrous pitfalls of the synthetic state-sanctioned Islam imposed through years of undemocratic rule and a crass undermining of what Pakistani nation and society are really about.

So what if some Pakistanis want to change the name of the country? It is only the synthetic nature and fragility of the one-unit-Islam that causes hearts to flutter, because state-sponsored Islam is not an organic construct. Thus, it is an insecure ideology that continues to blame outside forces, secularism and democracy for its own, very obvious, failures.

By arrangement with Dawn

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

THE SOMNATH FACTOR

DENIAL ONLY FUELS THE DEBATE

THE CPI-M has been speaking in so many voices that it is difficult to accept at face value Biman Bose's vehement denials that there are no moves to reinduct Somnath Chatterjee almost 18 months after he was expelled by the Politburo for refusing to step down as Speaker when the Left withdrew support to the UPA government. The denials may even indicate something to the contrary. It is no secret that central and state leaders of the party are divided on action that was taken. This is in tune with the feeling that the Politiburo had blundered on the expulsion as much as it blundered on withdrawal of support to the UPA on the question of the nuclear deal. This impression is confirmed by informal contacts maintained with the expelled leader unlike the estrangement with Saifuddin Choudhury and Samir Putatunda, both of whom had suffered a similar fate in 2000 for questioning the party's reluctance to move with the times. A lot of water has flown down the Hooghly, taking a heavy toll of the CPI-M's support base in large areas of the state. A rethink on the former Speaker has obviously been driven by the changed circumstances. However, the party's constitution allows reconsideration after the expelled member makes a formal appeal ~ something that Mr Chatterjee is not expected to do. He may equally be reluctant to accept a gesture of "forgiveness''. If at all he is keen on returning to the party to which he still expresses allegiance, he would want to do so on his own terms.

The CPI-M is truly in a dilemma. The drubbing it has received in recent elections has prompted it to explore all possible options for a turnaround. The options tried out so far, including an appeal to Congressmen by Jyoti Basu have not worked. Mr Chatterjee's proximity to the CPI-M patriarch is well known and the groundswell of opinion in his favour may have fuelled the present debate. The question is how the reunion can be achieved without making it look like an abject surrender by central leaders. By all accounts, the key figures in the Politburo still refuse to acknowledge that either the withdrawal of support to the UPA or Mr Chatterjee's expulsion has left the party in dire straits. As state secretary, Biman Bose may well be obliged to echo that firmness. But as the party approaches more crucial tests, it may well be a matter of looking for the most credible warriors in the fight for survival. The Somnath debate must be seen in the context of these desperate adjustments from which there seems to be no escape.

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

QUIET, EFFICIENT

HARVEST NAVY-EARNED GOODWILL

NOT for nothing does the Indian Navy call itself the "silent service". For while Somali piracy is a matter of international focus and attention, only very occasionally do the policing duties undertaken by our naval forces in that region come into prominence. And its latest action, a rapid response from the 'INS Godavari' to ward off an attack on the 'Nordic Spirit' tanker found only brief mention in the media. Yet this was the 14th attempted piracy thwarted by the helicopters and ships patrolling the Gulf of Aden (some action of that nature has been taken off Mauritius too) since regular patrols were launched in October 2008. Perhaps more importantly, 700 merchant vessels carrying merchandise worth millions of dollars have been escorted through what are deemed among the most dangerous waters in the world. How many of them would have been "hit" had the patrols ~ actually one warship at a time ~ not been deployed is a matter for speculation. And there is no method of quantifying the extent of the confidence those patrols have created in the minds of thousands of merchant mariners, many of them Indians, as they enjoyed safe passage. All that actually makes out a strong case for maintaining a stronger naval presence in the operational zone.

Yet for some strange reason the government appears bashful, and wary of playing a more assertive role in the anti-piracy effort. Nor is there any evidence of it attempting to encash the international goodwill the Navy has generated since it has not confined its action to the protection of Indian-owned vessels. There is a diplomatic harvest waiting to be reaped out there, but those prosecuting Indian foreign policy remain shackled in the past, back off from including the actions of our military in their calculus. This low-key approach, after declining to take the lead when that "slot" was available, suggests a failure to think "big". Not only is strategic space being provided for others to fill, the opportunity to establish India as a major player on the international stage is being continually squandered ~ smooth talk alone will not deliver. Are our policy-makers, if we have any, still prisoners of a "third world" mindset?

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

THE ASSAM BREW

CENTRE, ULFA MUST CHANGE RIGID STANDS

ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa's assertion that "I have not surrendered and will not, and that there can be no talks as a prisoner" and self-styled commander-in-chief Paresh Barua's denial of there being a split in the outfit and his stand that sovereignty must be included in any future negotiation suggest that, contrary to expectations, the Assam endgame is doomed to failure. Rajkhowa had maintained all along that sovereignty was not only the outfit's demand but that of the people as well, so he could not be expected to change his commitment to them overnight. He had also made it abundantly clear that "it is not possible to find a negotiated settlement to the Assam-India conflict within the ambit of the Indian Constitution, and a 'fresh outlook' is needed". What he meant by this was not clear but Jnanpith award winner and Assamese writer Mamoni Goswami, at whose behest the Ulfa agreed to talk to the Centre in 2005-06, has hinted that to make talks possible on the sovereignty issue the Centre had to think in terms of amending the Constitution. This is understandable because the Centre will not talk to any outfit that questions the country's sovereignty. It is worth recall that as early as December 1993 Ulfa pro-talk members, at their Bokaghat convention, called for "drastic changes" in the Constitution to give more powers to the states. They also demanded a green revolution and pleaded for state control over natural resources, giving rise to the suspicion that they were merely ventilating the government's grievances and that the convention was state-sponsored.

In December 2003, following the Bhutan Royal Army crackdown on Ulfa and Bodo hideouts, Barua reportedly advised Rajkhowa to sue for peace but he refused and even wrote to Chinese leaders seeking safe passage. Five years ago, Barua was quoted on a website as having said that "we are asking for a discussion on sovereignty… it does not mean granting the same". The Centre is now engaged in talks with the NSCN(IM) whose demand also includes sovereignty. So why is a different yardstick being employed for the Ulfa?

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

TWENTY YEARS AFTER

LESSONS ON THE PROCESS OF CHANGE

BY SUSHILA RAMASWAMY

IN the context of contemporary history, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was earthshaking. It was a turning point leading to the collapse of Communism in Europe just as in 1945, the allied victory in World War II put the death nail on fascism. However, the major contrast between these two events is that the first was achieved by victory in war, whereas the second was achieved peacefully and spontaneously.

But, at the same time in communist China, a democratic movement spearheaded by students was mercilessly crushed. And in spite of the growing clout of China as a major economic power in today's world, there is no positive indication that it is moving towards a liberal democratic order in the near future.

While looking back to the events of 1989, one can recall Dickens' famous comment ~ "It was the best of times and it was the worst of times". In the Europe of 1989, the cruel partition of Germany ended with a reminder that the Berlin Wall (1962 to 1989) symbolised the monumental failure of Communism. A wall was erected to isolate Communism from the rest of the world so that its own citizens, given a chance, would flee to the West rather than remain within its confines.

Afghan way

IT is worth pondering that had there been no wall perhaps there would have been a mass exodus of people in East Germany and Eastern Europe in the working age group to the West, considering that by 1962, when the wall was built, four million people had fled. It is also paradoxical that the Khrushchev regime, the first in the post-Stalin era in the former USSR that initiated many reforms and even avoided the gravest nuclear confrontation with the US during the Cuban crisis, allowed the wall to be built. At the same time, Khrushchev even proclaimed that the Soviet Union would surpass the US by 1985, in both standards of living and production. The subsequent Brezhnev regime sealed the fate of Communism forever by making Soviet Union a one dimensional and an incomplete superpower in which the only parity between the two superpowers was in armaments. Brezhnev, towards the end of his regime, committed the cardinal mistake of entering into a war in Afghanistan against all odds. In the process, Russia not only lost its ideological clout but also alienated itself from the majority of Third World countries.
However, in the non-European world, 1989 did not make much difference and the situation worsened in Communist China after the Tiananmen Square massacre. Nelson Mandela was still in prison with the apartheid regime in firm control. Within three years from 1989, Aung Sang Sui Kyi was denied the fruit of a democratic victory in Myanmar and kept under house arrest that continues even till date. The West continues to ignore the Myanmar situation and has allowed the bloodthirsty junta to carry on with its authoritarian rule with utter disregard for minority rights. On the contrary, the West was eager to impose democracy in Iraq with bayonets.
Mandela once remarked that the non-violent mode of protest would not work in situations like South Africa where the repressive apartheid regime never shied away from using force to squash a democratic upsurge. This brings us to a larger question about the use of non-violent forces in ushering important historical changes and at the same time, exposing its serious limitations. Gorbachov recently credited himself for being a key player in avoiding a nuclear holocaust which is a laudable achievement of his regime. He created a situation in which the Western powers started to believe the erstwhile Soviet Union and its leadership and Gorbachov also reciprocated by his refusal to use any kind of force when it became apparent that Soviet presence in East Europe was like that of an occupation army with very little popular support.

The suddenness with which the Berlin Wall was demolished is a testimony to the groundwork done by Gorbachov. The latter had convinced East Europeans that whatever might be the problem in Europe it would be resolved peacefully. With that kind of confidence building, the fall of the Berlin Wall vindicated Rosa Luxemburg's theory of spontaneity rather than a protracted use of techniques of non-violence. At the same time, the ideological onslaught of President Reagan of characterising the Communist regime as an evil one and the preparation for star wars created a great crisis in the Soviet leadership about the feasibility of continuing the arms race with the US as that was already bleeding the Soviet Union to its knees. It became quite apparent that ideologically, economically and technologically, the Soviet Union was no match for the West, a fact which Sakharov acknowledged, when he pointed out that during the Brezhnev regime all the major technological innovations had originated in the West. It also showed the hollowness of the once popular convergence theory articulated by many eminent Western intellectuals including Herbert Marcuse under the guise of end of ideology. However, the East European dissidents like Kolakowski, Vajda, the Praxis group and Andrei Amalrik's Will the Soviet Union Survive Beyond 1984? published in 1970 proved to be more accurate than that of western intellects.

The role of the Catholic Church in giving the long and arduous moral support was one of the major factors in bringing to the world stage the crisis in the belief structure of an average citizen of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. The Polish Pope, John Paul II, played a pivotal role. In a nutshell, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Communism in Europe, and the end of the Cold War came out of the cumulative factors that were building up over a long period of time.

In contrast, there was no such record of resentment in China. Nor for that matter was an alternative scenario present as was the case for the people of East Europe vis-a-vis the West. The Deng revolution had already started the reform process and unlike the Soviet Union which was stagnating economically, the Chinese growth rate was becoming impressive by the time the Tiananmen Square massacre took place and the fruits of its growing economic power were felt by its people. As a result the fallout of the Tiananmen Square revolt remained restricted, confining the ideals of liberty to some students and well-informed intellectuals.

Different situation

IN contrast to the larger urbanised and educated middle class in Europe, the corresponding middle class in China was small. Lucien Pye rightly pointed out that the freedom of the press and the attainment of civil and political liberties would become an important component of civilised existence only when the majority of a country's population is literate and belong to the middle class. The two different situations of Europe and the Afro-Asian world demonstrate the sharp contrast regarding the issues and outcomes of the events of 1989.
Lenin, while praising Sun Yat Sen and Tilak, remarked that it was the forward Asia and backward Europe that existed in the early 20th century. What he meant was that the Asian leadership at that time was comparable to the 18th century European Enlightenment and, in comparison the European leadership was backward. Perhaps, a re-evaluation of the historical process of the last one hundred years will help us to come to terms with 1989 when Europe succeeded and Asia and Africa failed.

Orwell said that non-violent mass action is possible only under a democratic and tolerant order with commitment to the rule of law and allowing dissent and, not in a totalitarian or authoritarian or repressive regime. An analysis of the events of 1989 should enable academics, the intelligentsia and political activists to identify the limits of non-violent mass action.

The writer is Reader in Political Science, Jesus and Mary College, New Delhi

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

SCIENTISTS DISCOVER GENE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURLY HAIR

PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

LONDON, 8 DEC: In a discovery that could lead to a pill to make hair straighter or curlier, scientists have identified a "curly hair gene" and are developing a treatment which could spell the end of electrical hair straighteners.

The groundbreaking research at the Queensland Institute of Medical Research (QIMR), Australia, identified the trichohyalin gene as the one that is mainly responsible for creating curls.

The discovery, which will help predict whether a baby will have straight or curly hair, can also allow detectives to use DNA found at the scene of the crime to indicate how wavy a suspect's locks are.

Professor Nick Martin, head of the QIMR Genetic Epidemiology Laboratory and author of the research, said it is variation in this gene that determines straightness or curliness of hair.

He also stated that their research may now pave the way for treatments to make hair straighter as an alternative to heated hair-straighteners.

"Potentially we can now develop new treatments to make hair curlier or straighter, rather than treating the hair directly," Prof Martin was quoted as saying by The Telegraph.

"That is one angle we will be working on and which I will be discussing with a major cosmetic company in Paris in January.

"Also, we could certainly predict whether it was more probable that a baby would have curly or straight hair. We plan to keep working on this to improve the prediction."

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

EDITORIAL

CARE TO CARE

 

People who are seriously ill and their carers are some of the most vulnerable in the market. The power that nursing homes, hospitals, clinics and laboratories wield on these hapless people can be absolute. In a poor country like India, the relationship between medical establishments and the people who put themselves at their mercy is often desperately unequal. So, it is reassuring to see the West Bengal government about to table a bill protecting patients and carers from negligence or exploitation in the private health sector. The bill promises a tribunal that would decide on inflated bills and compensation and forbids denial of life-saving treatment under any circumstances, among other things. The tribunal needs to be quick, efficient and free of bureaucracy, for inordinate delays and endless appeals are the chief causes of injustice in the current systems of redress. Doctors practising in their own chambers do not fall within the purview of the bill, which is somewhat alarming. But the effectiveness of such a bill would equally depend on the mindset of the people using these services. In Bengal, ordinary people are either in a sort of helpless awe of doctors and their world, unable to demand proper services when they are denied them, or the worst kind of violence breaks out in retaliation to any alleged injustice. The private health sector needs consumers who are aware of what they are entitled to in terms of the quality of what they are paying for.

 

Yet, the most helpless of Bengal's medical consumers use the facilities provided by the government, and it is precisely these establishments, the state-run hospitals, that are exempted from this bill. The fact that the services they provide are free, or almost free, is no excuse for putting them outside the realm of the law. This would give an already hellish and anarchic set-up a better handle to remain a law unto itself, often inhumanly unmindful of its users' needs. These hospitals also run on public money, and Swastha Bhavan has no reason to feel above accountability or ethics. The question of standards has to be rigorously brought back into the burgeoning healthcare industry in West Bengal. If the state government is going to be strict with the private sector, then it better get its own act together. Otherwise, it forfeits the right to monitor and to adjudicate, both of which are urgently necessary in this state.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

EDITORIAL

STREET POWER

 

Nepal's Maoists cannot wait to return to power. The surest way to do so, they think, is to return to the streets. But the Maoists' street-shows in Kathmandu lack the political and moral legitimacy that their electoral success gave them last year. That victory came on the crest of a popular movement against the monarchy in which Nepal's democratic parties had joined the Maoists. True, the electoral victory made the former rebels a major political force in the new Himalayan republic. But if they are not part of Nepal's government today, the Maoists have only themselves to blame. What they face today has happened to rebels in other countries who have laid down arms and tried to find their feet in democratic politics. Nepal's Maoists thus have two basic problems — they find themselves misfits in democratic politics and they would not, therefore, do away completely with their old tactic. That is why they have not disbanded their army or other wings in accordance with the terms of the peace process. Instead, they have stalled the working of the constituent assembly, which is supposed to give Nepal a new constitution and thereafter a fresh election. Worse, the Maoists have threatened to unilaterally announce the formation of "autonomous states" of a federal Nepal. All this is a sure recipe for a fresh spell of anarchy.

 

The Maoists' charge that India is desperate to keep them out of power is an old ploy. The anti-India card is routinely used in Kathmandu in order to settle partisan scores. Yet, not long ago, New Delhi had played a decisive role in brokering peace in Nepal and in persuading the Maoists to join mainstream politics. If the former guerrillas failed in their new role as the major partner in a coalition government, that had much more to do with their own weaknesses than with India's interventions. In the face of fresh turmoil in Kathmandu, New Delhi should make it absolutely clear to the Maoists that it has a stake in Nepal's peace and stability, and that stability in the country depends primarily on the success of multi-party democracy. If the common Nepalis rose against an unpopular monarchy, they did so in the hope of ushering in not a communist dictatorship but a democratic Nepal. The Maoists themselves now threaten to kill that promise by their demonstrations of street power. If they succeed, Nepal will see yet another revolution betrayed.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

EDITORIAL

THE DEFENSIVE MINDSET

WHAT HINDERS INDIA'S RECOGNITION AS THE SIXTH NUCLEAR POWER?

K.P. NAYAR

 

The biggest obstacle to India's rise in the 21st century is an Indian mindset. In January 2004, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government began a diplomatic process with an Indo-US Next Steps in Strategic Partnership to expand bilateral cooperation in the areas of civilian nuclear activities, civilian space programmes and high-technology trade. A follow-up to this was the nuclear deal between the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and the United State of America's Republican president, George W. Bush. Logically, the culmination of this process ought to be India's eventual recognition as a nuclear weapons state.

 

This objective is still quite some way down the road of diplomacy and the process will, by no means, be easy, but the United Progressive Alliance government has recently taken very tentative steps in this direction. Alas, even before such an initiative can be expanded, Indians themselves are doing everything to stymie this effort, which will change the country's destiny.

 

For those familiar with the workings of Indian diplomacy, such negativism should not come as a surprise. At one stage during the tortuous negotiations on the Indo-US nuclear deal, an Indian negotiator told the then foreign secretary that New Delhi should not at all expect enrichment and reprocessing rights from the Americans to be included in the agreements for operationalizing the nuclear deal.

 

"Sir, the Americans have never given enrichment and reprocessing rights to any country which is a non-nuclear weapons state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. So, we should not expect to get these rights in the 123 Agreement [then being negotiated for implementation of the nuclear deal]." But the foreign secretary told this negotiator, addressing him by his first name, "You are not in these negotiations to tell me what the Americans will not do for us. You are there to convey to the Americans what we want and to tell me how they will do it for us. Your job is to get us what we are seeking."

 

Shortly after the foreign secretary's firm rebuke, another negotiator was publicly asked at a forum in Washington when India and the US would resolve their differences and conclude the 123 Agreement. Without batting an eyelid, in an instant, this negotiator told the questioner that the 123 negotiations would be completed when the Americans agree to what India was seeking. The reply then produced shockwaves within the US state department and sent a clear message that India was unwilling to be pushed around.

 

Although the current, nascent efforts to seek an amendment to the NPT — to include India as the world's sixth nuclear power — are confined to a very small circle of the prime minister's trusted aides, word has got around, as it always does in New Delhi's culture of leaks, about Singh's recent discussions on this issue with two of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the NPT. And almost as quickly, unsolicited advice has begun reaching the Prime Minister's Office that this is not a propitious time to launch any such ambitious diplomatic initiative.

 

There is a sense of déjà vu about this. In 2006, when the UPA government was considering putting up Shashi Tharoor as India's candidate for the post of UN secretary-general, naysayers in the country's strategic community nearly scuttled the nomination. But after Tharoor was nominated, a coalition between these naysayers and sections within the ministry of external affairs ensured that Tharoor's campaign did not realize its full potential. As a result, India's candidate to head the UN defeated himself.

 

The same was true of India's effort, along with Brazil, Germany and Japan in 2004, to change the composition of the UN security council to include India as a permanent member of the UN's top table. It was pathetic to watch some of those who handled the matter in New Delhi proverbially cutting off their nose to spite their face. Such negativism was prompted largely by their dislike of India's then maverick permanent representative to the UN in New York: these people wanted to see that if by some chance the security council was, indeed, expanded, the credit for it should not go to the envoy in New York who was in charge of carrying out the initiative.

 

A few decades earlier, India was actually offered membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations when the Asean was still in its formative period, but New Delhi decided against accepting the offer. Some of Indira Gandhi's aides at that time, anticipating what the then prime minister with a radical view of the world would have thought of the offer, persuaded her that it was not worth India's while to join the Asean, the members of which soon became the "Tiger" economies of Asia while India was left behind.

 

The worst irony of this episode was that some 25 years later, South Block had to virtually go begging to the Asean to be accepted not as a member but as the Southeast Asian bloc's "dialogue partner". Even that partnership would not have come about had it not been for prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao's persistent effort to gain a toehold for India within the Asean, and for Singapore's solid lobbying on behalf of New Delhi within the group in the face of determined opposition to the idea from some countries like Malaysia and Indonesia.

All this is not to say that the international community, which has abided by the NPT more than any other arms control agreement in the history of mankind, will bend over backwards to accept India as a nuclear weapons state through an amendment to the treaty if and when it is formally proposed.

 

To start with, one-third of the signatories to the treaty have to sign on to any change in the NPT in order for a special amendment conference to be called. Obviously, India's new-found friends in the developed world or in the Group of Twenty will not be enough to make up that mandatory one-third of NPT membership even if they were to go along with the idea of amending the treaty. The only course open to India to mobilize support on that scale is to turn to the non-aligned movement or the Group of Seventy Seven. That ought to be a reminder to Western lobbyists within the Indian establishment that India still needs groups such as the Non-Aligned Movement and the G-77 to secure its rightful place in the international order.

 

Passing an amendment making India the world's sixth recognized nuclear weapons state, however, requires only a simple majority at a special conference. India's candidature for a non-permanent seat on the UN security council in next year's election will give New Delhi a reasonable idea of the country's ability to influence the community of nations with its newly emergent image as a rising power. The external affairs minister, S.M. Krishna, is already pitching for a resounding victory in this election that will take place during next year's UN general assembly. If India is able to mobilize the 120 votes that Krishna is aiming for out of the UN's total membership of 192, the country would have avenged its miserable defeat at the hands of Japan when New Delhi made its last bid to get into the security council. At the same time, 120 votes in the general assembly will give New Delhi a sense of how quickly it can make its bid to amend the NPT.

 

There are other catches, however. All sitting members of the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency at the time of an amendment conference to the NPT will have to unanimously favour an amendment for it to be passed, according to the provisions of the treaty. And, of course, all the five recognized nuclear weapons states have to agree to let anyone else into their exclusive club. It is pointless, at this stage, to speculate which of the big five countries will agree to an amendment favouring India or otherwise. What the country's leadership and those entrusted with this historic initiative to draw the final curtain on India's long nuclear winter need most of all is confidence in themselves and their cause.

 

In the past, India has lost out on the global stage when those in charge of its foreign and security policies have underestimated their country's strengths and acted in a defensive or reactive manner. For a change, the country's top political leadership appears to know what it wants in this instance and it is for those whose job is to implement policies to find a way to move forward, just as the one-time foreign secretary told his reluctant and defensive nuclear negotiator.

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

EDITORIAL

STRANGE EFFECTS

STEPHEN HUGH-JONES

 

There it was: Any Premiership footballer has their own agent. Really? Not his? Do any women play in Britain's top football league? Must we write Every mother loves their baby? In the past I've lamented the follies born of the attempt, not foolish in itself, to make English gender-neutral. Yet how little gender it includes anyway.

 

We have he/him and his, she/her and her, it and its. A few nouns denote specifically female people or animals; but ever fewer, as words like authoress and poetess die off. Actress may follow, though few actresses could (or would) claim acting skill as their own charm. Princess and queen will surely survive, even if monarchies do not. So too lioness, vixen and the like.

 

We also have some issues of usage. A few people still call countries she, and more do so for ships. It's disputable up to what age one may use it for small children (never to their mothers, for sure, though new fathers can expect to be asked "Is it a boy or a girl?). But think what English doesn't have, and other languages do — most Indian ones included.

 

Ancient Greek and Latin, two big sources of English, used to put every noun in one of three genders: masculine, feminine or neuter. Modern Greek still has three. So does German, the other big source, through the Anglo-Saxons. So too Sanskrit, close kin to still older influences (and among its Indian kin today, Kannada and Tamil, Gujarati and Marathi, for example, have three genders, Hindi, Punjabi and Urdu two. Bengali is an oddity, making no gender distinctions among nouns at all).

 

Latin's direct descendants — Italian, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Romanian and their lesser cousins — have two genders, after absorbing most of its neuter nouns into masculine. The Latin gender often survives. But the effect can be odd. Most Latin nouns ending in -us were masculine. So too their descendants, which in Italian and Spanish typically end in the masculine -o. But Latin's manus, a hand, was feminine; so both languages have la mano. Italian muro, born of the Latin murus, a wall, has both a masculine and a feminine plural.

 

These linguistic genders have little to do with the real world. For a start, most nouns denote things that are sexless: stone or sorrow, for instance. Logically, they should be neuter. Yet few are. Again, the results can be odd. In Latin, the sea — mare — was neuter. To Italians, it is now masculine, il mare. The French have feminized it into la mer. In Spanish it can be either. And in German, whose See could have been neuter, it is, in fact, masculine.

 

With living things, you might think their sex decisive. Not so. Most plants anyway are bisexual. What gender should their names have? Nearly all animals are indeed either male or female. But their names don't always follow suit: in Tamil, both bull and cow are neuter (if one allows "neuter" for the Tamil grammarians' "irrational"). Often one noun serves for both sexes: farmers talk of boars and sows, but to most of us any pig is just a pig.

 

As for the human animal, man and woman are indeed habitually masculine and feminine. It was they that led grammarians to apply the notion to language at all. But even here confusion can arise. Latin's nauta and agricola, sailor and farmer, in typically male jobs, were both masculine, yet had typically feminine -a endings.

German is odder still. Sure, it has der Mann and die Frau, masculine and feminine. But make the frau a little woman with the German suffix -lein, and she is suddenly desexed into das Fräulein, a neuter. Ditto for das Mädchen, a girl. In Konkani too, the word for a young woman is neuter. I doubt German or Goan feminists can end this linguistic slander.

 

English escapes nearly all this nonsense. Just as well. It has crazy spelling, many irregular plurals, countless irregular verbs, and several competing varieties, spread across the globe. Imagine gendermonium on top.

 

THEWORDCAGE@YAHOO.CO.UK

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

INJUDICIOUS AT BEST

''COURT SHOULD RESPECT RIGHT OF THE PEOPLE TO KNOW.''

 

It is strange that the supreme court has approached itself with a complaint relating to its own role and responsibilities and then decided to grant relief to itself. The court has never been comfortable with the Central Information Commission's views on its obligations under the Right to Information Act and has tried to stonewall legitimate queries of citizens on the assets and liabilities of judges. It does not yet accept that the Chief Justice of India is a public authority under the RTI Act, though the spirit of the Act and an enlightened view of the role of the judiciary would support that position. The latest of the court's actions of doubtful merit is its stay on the CIC's directives to disclose details pertaining to the decision of its collegium to appoint three judges superseding some others and the communication between the CJI and a Madras High Court judge on the latter's charge about the interference of a Union minister in a case.

There is no reason why the details of appointment of judges should be kept a secret. It is difficult to see how the independence of the judiciary and its prestige will be compromised if it is shared with the people. The selection of judges should not be a secretive process and the reluctance of the court to impart any transparency to it strengthens the case for changing the procedure and giving a role for the executive also in it. The supreme court bench which stayed the order of the CIC promised that the court will be objective in its examination of the issue and that there is no backtracking on the right to information. But the widespread impression that the judiciary does not want itself to be subjected to the right to information does not seem to be off the mark.

The Madras High Court judge's comments about the attempt to influence him were made in open court and the people have the right to know what happened to the charge and how it was handled, especially because it related to the image of the judiciary and the conduct of a representative of the people. Withholding that information is again against public interest. The supreme court's decisions on both these issues show how unresponsive it is to the people's right to know, which ironically, it has upheld and expanded.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

FRIENDS FOR EVER

''PRESSURE TACTICS ARE NOT IN FAVOUR OF RELATIONSHIPS.''

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Russia might have lacked the hype that surrounded his recent visit to Washington but it was not short on substantial achievements. The two countries signed six important agreements taking bilateral relationship to a new, higher level. The most significant is a civilian nuclear energy agreement under which Russia will set up more nuclear reactors in India, transfer the entire range of nuclear energy technologies and supply nuclear fuel.

India's nuclear deal with Russia goes well beyond that clinched with the US. Unlike the deal with the US, which warns India of termination of all nuclear co-operation in the event of Delhi conducting a nuclear test, the India-Russia nuclear agreement assures India of uninterrupted fuel supply. The Russians have also promised India enrichment and reprocessing rights. Another point in favour of the nuclear deal with the Russians is that there is no request for liability or insurance cover.

The stalemate over the pricing of 'Admiral Gorshkov', which has queered relations somewhat in recent years, is reported to have been resolved 'satisfactorily to both sides'. Russia repeatedly hiked the cost of upgrading the aircraft carrier, citing a rise in cost of materials. This has been unacceptable to India. The ensuing deadlock has delayed delivery. India will be forking out far more money to get the carrier than originally agreed. Still, the end of the stalemate is welcome. An important gap in India's naval preparedness will be closed once a refurbished Gorshkov (renamed INS Vikramaditya) is inducted into the Navy. India and Russia have also signed a defence agreement that provides for acquisition, licensed production, upgrades and modernisation of defence equipment as well as the development of new and advanced weapon systems.

Defence co-operation has been the mainstay of the Delhi-Moscow bond for decades. Increasingly, however, India has been looking to Israel and the US to meet its defence needs. Not surprisingly this has bothered the Russians. There are serious issues that trouble Indo-Russian defence ties, such as the inordinate delay in supplying defence spare parts. The unseemly haggling over the price of Gorshkov, after the agreement was finalised, has not gone down well in India which values its long-standing friendship with the Russians. The generous terms of the nuclear deal is widely appreciated in India, but Moscow's pressure tactics in defence deals must stop if it is keen to keep the relationship alive

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

LOAN SHARKING

IF THE RURAL POOR CAN MAKE BUSINESS SENSE FROM HIGH RATE OF RETURN, HOW COME THE PEOPLE LIVING IN THE CITY CANNOT?

BY DEVINDER SHARMA

 

Just think. If the poorest of a poor woman in a village wants to buy a goat, she can avail a small loan from a micro-finance institute. She buys a goat, which becomes her life-line ensuring her livelihood security, and is forced to repay the loan at a staggering interest rate of 24 per cent on an average.

In any city on the other hand, if you want to buy a car you can walk up to a bank and get an easy loan for an annual interest rate not exceeding 8 per cent. Buying a television or a refrigerator on installments may be still cheaper, often without any interest rate. While for you in the city the bank loan is merely a business transaction and therefore comes cheap, in the village the petty loans are being distributed in the name of empowering the poor.

I am sure that if the poorest of the poor woman was also to get a loan for buying a goat at a minimal rate of interest, say 4 per cent or even 7 per cent that we provide to farmers, she would be driving a Nano car at the end of the year. Since this is not allowed to happen, I sometimes wonder whether the primary objective of micro-finance is to protect the health of the banks and the intermediary organisations rather than to pull the poor out of the poverty trap.

If the poorest of the poor, living below the poverty line, need financial credit at an exorbitantly high interest rate of 24 per cent to get empowered, why the more resourceful people living in urban centres cannot empower themselves with the same rate of interest? If the poor in rural India can make business sense from this high rate of return, how come the people living in the city cannot? Why do poor have to pay three times more interest for small loans?

Let us not forget that a majority of the 150 million poorest of the poor in rural areas, who are borrowing from the plethora of micro-finance institutions, probably earn their daily bread from working under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which only provides them an assured daily income of Rs 60 to Rs 80 and that too for only 100 days in a year. Isn't it criminal to charge these poor borrowers 24 per cent interest on small loans?

It is therefore quite apparent that poverty has literally become a big and organised business. If you are educated, and looking for a profitable business enterprise, and more so if you are a non-resident Indian and want to translocate to India, micro-finance offers you the right avenue. There can be no better business opportunity than starting a micro-finance institution with assured returns and 100 per cent loan recovery.

Safety and profit

At times of economic insecurity, micro-finance is a business with assured returns. No wonder, Monsanto, Citicorp, ABN Amro, ICICI, Nabard, UN and a host of other international and national financial institutions are lending at roughly 12-13 per cent to the micro-finance institutions. These MFIs add another 10 to 12 per cent to meet their overheads, and therefore for the poor borrower the cumulative interest comes to around 24 per cent a year.

The micro-finance business has grown manifold. India Microfinance Report 2009 tells us that the portfolio of the micro-finance institutions has grown by 97 per cent, and number of beneficiaries has also gone up by 60 per cent. Another news report tells us that SKS Micro-finance is charging approximately 24 per cent rate of interest in Orissa, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh; in southern India, Equitas Micro-finance is seeking 21-28 per cent interest rate and Basix Microfinance is providing small loans at 18-24 per cent interest rate.

The unprecedented growth in micro-finance tells us that while the rules of the game have changed, the poor in the villages continue to be exploited. Micro-finance institutions have shifted the game from the hands of the villains of the story, the 'sahukars' to a sophisticatedly organised class of new money-lenders. These are not the usual 'banias' but a highly educated class of people who use all the modern marketing skills. Charging usurious interest rates, these MFIs actually "live off the back of the poor."

I don't understand how the Reserve Bank of India can be a mute spectator. Ostensibly the RBI is only concerned at the health of the banks, since they get an assured return of 12 per cent without even making any effort to build up its customer base. I see no reason why the RBI cannot force these banks to lend at a maximum of 2 per cent interest for the poorest of the poor, allowing the MFIs to charge an additional 2 per cent. Any micro-finance charging more than 4 per cent interest for the people, who are somehow surviving below the poverty line, should be considered a crime.

At present, MFIs do follow a code of conduct, but I fail to understand why some institutions like the Society for Rural Improvement in Kerala charge 10 to 15 per cent rate of interest, only 2 to 3 per cent more than what the commercial banks charge them, while the big players romp home with another 12 per cent interest over and above what the banks lend them for.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

THE RISE OF RETRO POPULISM IN THE US

TEN MONTHS AFTER A TIDAL WAVE OF PROGRESSIVE POPULIST HOPE, THE 'LIBERAL MOMENT' IS WANING.

BY MARK SOMMER, IPS

 

The 20th anniversary of the Berlin Wall's fall reminded Americans of just how heady it felt when a triumphant America stood astride a collapsing Soviet empire. Two decades later, Americans find themselves bewildered and resentful. Many are now asking, Where did it all go?

In truth the decline of American supremacy was a long time coming. Even at the height of US power, crucial trends were undermining the long-term health of American society. A humiliating defeat in Vietnam, an exhausting war of choice in Iraq, a political class ever more beholden to corporate coffers, crumbling educational, medical and public infrastructures, an debt-driven economy dominated by risky financial speculation at the expense of productive activity: All these and more sapped the essential sources of national strength.

Now, as Americans survey the wreckage of their dreams, their responses to this diminished destiny are sharply divided. The financial collapse of 2008 left most Americans breathless and bereft.

Legacy
The financial collapse occurred just in time to hand Barack Obama a ticking time bomb. Recently released documents reveal that the fix was already in during the last days of the Bush administration to hand US banks and investment firms a free pass to cover their misdeeds and emerge not just unscathed but with a still more dominant role in the American economy. The Obama administration was handed a poisoned chalice and forced to drink it.

But Obama then compounded the crime with egregious errors of his own that have left his supporters deeply dispirited. Instead of defending ordinary Americans from the depredations of an unconscionable financial sector, he handed the tiller to the bankers.

The result is that 10 months after a tidal wave of progressive populist hope, the 'liberal moment' is already waning. In its place, a much more menacing populism is emerging. It deftly exploits the fears of those left behind by the new economy and stokes fear and loathing in venom spewed by incendiary talk show hosts, Rupert Murdoch's fact-free Fox News, a virulent blogosphere, orchestrated 'tea parties' and bizarre 'birther' movements.

This retro populism glories in its own ignorance. For the past few decades Republicans have found a winning formula in putting forth presidential candidates manifestly unqualified for the job yet hugely appealing to a significant segment of the population that isn't comfortable with anyone leading them who knows more than they do.

Far right populism is fuelled by conspiratorial fantasies and a surly contempt for facts and reasoned debate. Historian Richard Hofstadter once called this "the paranoid style in American politics". Like a lethal political virus, it routinely erupts during periods of economic distress and social dislocation.

It all sounds eerily familiar, with haunting echoes of the rise of fascism in Europe two generations ago. The accelerating decline of US power and influence after decades of malfeasance and mis-governance raises the question of how Americans will take no longer being Number One. The contrasting populisms of right and left reflect radically different responses. On the left a new localism is emerging in post-political movements for self-reliance, simplicity, and a renewed spirit of interdependent community. Many long for their country to be liberated from the burdens of empire so as to focus on rebuilding a more equitable and sustainable American dream.

Confronting the same disturbing trends, retro populism shares the impulse to return to family, friends and community. But it expresses itself in anger at the immigrants, minorities, and cultural elites its adherents see as undermining traditional American values. And it forcefully rejects any future where the United States is perceived as anything less than "the greatest nation on earth".

Progressives have long warned of a homegrown American fascism. Yet the self-balancing nature of its government and the ballast of its middle-class society have always prevented the country from succumbing to its worst excesses. But now, the decline of its superpower status, massive economic insecurity, orchestrated rage, and a poorly informed and educated public could combine with the amplifying effects of partisan media to unhinge American history.

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

THE SOUND-BITE HYPE

MEDIA FORGETS THE REAL INTENTION BEHIND THE WORDS, WHILE INTERPRETING.

BY ARUN BHATIA

When he was introduced to a big wig Patel yesterday, all Prince Philip had said was: "There are a lot of your family about" in a good natured banter. Patel himself took no offence, said it was a joke. But the media? Ah, they went to town!

On such occasions, what is a luminary supposed to say to the entire line-up of people being introduced? "Nice weather we're having"?

Interpreting his light-hearted remark as though the Duke of Edinburgh implied that all Patels are related, and taking offence, is all due to the media — in a fiercely competitive scenario — seeking sound-bites. Use a file picture of the poor guy, say he is racist and so on.

First of all, who is to say his words were reported accurately? He could have said, "there are a lot with your family name about". That would not give the media the rope to hang him as it would only mean that Patel is a common surname in England.

Prince Philip knows India well, has visited often, played polo here and so on. During one such visit when our government chaps organised a visit to Ranthambore National Park for tiger spotting, he politely declined. He knew India enough to know that the tiger event would be stage managed and was reluctant to disturb India's wildlife.

I was introduced to him in Mumbai in a line up of people active with World Wildlife Fund  He didn't just say "how do you do" — he bantered as a personal touch of appreciation to each of us.  He asked me: "What do you do?" and I replied "I am a small businessman".

I am as tall as him. Looking at my large, portly frame, he touched my shoulder and said "Not a very  small businessman". That could have been interpreted as making offensive remarks, implying I was fat. But it was just a personal touch. His smile has remained in my memory.

There is this story about the American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who had to often shake hands with a long line up of people. Bored, he'd mumble something to each. Wearing a plastic smile, what he'd say was: "I murdered my grandmother this morning". None of them noticed. All of them said things like: "It's an honour to meet you, Mr President."

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

JUSTICE AND HALACHA

 

Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman must have been thinking out loud when he told a legal conference Monday night that judicial decisions in this country ought to be based on Torah principles and this goal should be implemented incrementally.

 

"We will bestow upon the citizens of Israel the laws of the Torah and we will turn Halacha into the binding law of the nation," the minister pledged, "Soon, in the near future, amen."

 

What possessed this savvy lawyer, consigliere to the stars, and a power broker in his own right, to in effect call for the creation of a theocracy? Does Neeman envision it would be based on his type of progressive national-religious Orthodoxy? Would it not more likely adhere to a form of haredism? Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef was inspired to blurt out that he anyway discourages his followers from turning to goyish courts because Israeli judges do not adjudicate according to Halacha.

 

Having unleashed a storm of concern, Neeman's office "clarified" that he did not, actually, mean what he said - though Neeman later told the Knesset that rabbis could right now start taking some of the burden off judges.

 

Frankly, Neeman's remarks catch us by surprise. We had pegged him as a man who appreciated where fundamentalist Orthodoxy - the stream now ascendant - is leading the country.

 

It was a committee Neeman chaired that recommended Robinson's Arch as a solution to the Orthodox hegemony at the Western Wall. It was Neeman who proposed the formation of the Institute of Jewish Studies, where representatives of different streams of Judaism would instruct prospective converts. And it was Neeman who supported the appointment of more compassionate Orthodox rabbis to the rabbinical courts.

 

Neeman well knows that operating a modern state on the basis of Halacha is unworkable.

 

In 1953, the secular state enacted the Rabbinical Courts Adjudication Law that empowered the rabbinate to apply Halacha in areas of marriage, divorce and citizenship. The results have been ... unsatisfactory.

 

Thousands of citizens must go abroad to marry because the state clergy does not acknowledge they are Jewish. Scores of women are chained in dead marriages because the same clergy will not grant them divorces. Tens of thousands of potential Jews have been turned away from Jewish civilization because they will not commit to leading Orthodox lifestyles.

 

The profane blending of politics, patronage and piety has alienated countless secular Israelis. Yet jealous of their prerogatives, the Orthodox will not share the taxpayers' resources with the Masorti and Reform streams who might be able to reach these people.

 

LIKE NEEMAN we, too, cherish the halachic tradition. Over thousands of years, the sages created legal foundations that have formed a basis for Western jurisprudence.

 

For instance, laws of inheritance and torts, topics being studied this week by Talmudists worldwide, epitomize Jewish ideals of fairness. From the Pentateuch to responsa literature, Halacha has made it possible for Jews to flourish intellectually, communally and spiritually under the harshest conditions.

 

It is a grand idea for Israeli jurists to be informed by Halacha, but it would be terrible if they were bound by it.

 

Halacha, like American constitutional law, is organic, evolving and malleable. It is intended to unify the Jewish people. Tragically, however, those who today dominate the application of Halacha tend to be strict constructionists. A theocratic state in which such rabbis would replace judges would be hellish.

 

A learned, astute observer, a personal friend of the minister, told The Jerusalem Post the idea that Israeli jurisprudence could operate on halachic grounds is "not serious" and Neeman well knows this.

 

"Jewish law was never the law of the land in any period of Jewish history. So no one really wants this, not the secular, and also not the rabbis; the secular for obvious reasons; and the rabbis because it would require a stunning revolution in Jewish law," the source said.

 

After all, what, practically, does Hebrew law have to say about the currency markets? Where would bad guys go? Can contemporary litigation follow halachic rules of witnesses or the limitations on the testimony of women?

 

If our justice minister wants to think out loud, he should do so in the privacy of his own home.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

GRAPEVINE: CONFRONTING PERSECUTION

GREER FAY CASHMAN

 

WHILE NO one would wish to rob any of the valiant people who were involved in the struggle for Soviet Jewry of the recognition due to them, there is a need to set the record straight. In last Friday's Jerusalem Post Magazine, Zvi Raviv and Yona Yahav were credited with making prime minister Golda Meir aware of the Soviet Jewry issue. While there is no doubt that they were in the forefront of Israeli activism for Soviet Jewry, there is also no doubt that Meir, having previously served as ambassador to the Soviet Union, was very much aware of the plight of Soviet Jewry.

 

Moreover, Nativ, the covert liaison bureau to Soviet Jewry which was established in 1952 as a unit in the Prime Minister's Office by former Hagana commander Shaul Avigur, reported regularly to then prime minister Moshe Sharett and to all subsequent prime ministers.

 

In 1959, a young Australian University graduate who would later rise to the top leadership position in the Australian Jewish community was recruited by Avigur to launch a campaign for Soviet Jews. The young Australian was Isi Leibler, who eventually became the president of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, and who is today a regular columnist for The Jerusalem Post.

 

In 1962, just as it had been the first country at the UN to vote in favor of the resolution for the partition of Palestine in November, 1947, Australia became the first country to broach the plight of Soviet Jewry at the UN. It should also be remembered that Australia was one of the few countries that opened its gates to Jewish refugees fleeing Hitler's Europe and to Holocaust survivors who sought to build new lives after the war.

 

  JUST A little over a month ahead of International Holocaust Remembrance Day which is commemorated on January 27, the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, representatives of more than 50 countries will gather at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Jerusalem on December 16-17 to participate in the Global Forum for Combatting Anti-Semitism under the joint chairmanship of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Minister for Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Yuli Edelstein. The global forum was established in 2000 by then minister for Diaspora affairs Michael Melchior and current Jewish Agency Chairman Natan Sharansky, the most famous of former prisoners of Zion.

 

It is no coincidence that this prestigious assembly will take place during Hanukka, which commemorates the victory of the Maccabees over a virulent form of physical and religious persecution. Forum participants include statesmen, parliamentarians, diplomats, journalists, human rights activists, legal experts, NGO representatives, prominent academics and leaders of Jewish communities and Jewish organizations.

 

Among the largest delegations, other than Israel, is that of Canada, whose representatives include lawyer and human rights activist David Matas, who has successfully brought Nazi war criminals to trial. Matas is also an outspoken critic of the alleged killing of Falun Gong practitioners in China for the purpose of marketing their organs. Together with David Kilgour, he has written a book on the subject: Bloody Harvest - The Killing of Falun Gong for their Organs that was launched last month in Ottawa by the Canadian Parliamentary Friends of Falun Gong. Matas will have an Israel launch of the book on December 15 at the Hebrew Writers Association in Tel Aviv.

 

Another very important participant is Prof. Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, a former foreign minister of Poland, who in addition to being a social activist and politician is also a journalist, writer and historian. A survivor of Auschwitz, a resistance fighter in the Polish Home Army, and from September 1942, a member of the Provisional Committee to Aid Jews, Bartoszewski who has visited Israel several times, also has honorary citizenship. Yad Vashem named him as Righteous among the Nations in 1963 and has a close relationship with him. Bartoszewski can be seen in Warsaw at the annual commemorations of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. While here, he will participate in a Hanukka celebration hosted by Polish Ambassador Agnieszka Magdziak-Miszewska at her residence in Kfar Shmaryahu.

 

  TURKEY'S NEW ambassador, Oguz Celikkol, will be the last of five ambassadors presenting their credentials to President Shimon Peres today. The others are Henry Hansonof Ghana, Kyriakos Loukakis of Greece, Andrew Standley of the European Commission and Roberto Eduardo Arango of Panama. Because five is the maximum number of ambassadors who can present their credentials on any given day, there are others such as Sri Lanka's G. Donald Perera and Colombia's Isaac Gilinski Sragowicz waiting for the next round of presentations. Albanian Charge d'Affaires Qirijako Kureta is waiting to see whether his country's next ambassador will be sent in from abroad or whether his Foreign Ministry will decide to promote him. Several other embassies are currently headed by a charge d'affaires in the absence of an ambassador.

 

  THE POSITION of Ambassador Andrew Standley, the new head of the European Commission to the State of Israel, will be short lived. There's no danger of Standley, who arrived here in October, being recalled. But as of January 1, he will no longer be head of delegation of the European Commission. Instead, he will be head of the Delegation of the European Union. Standley was previously here in the 1970s working as a kibbutz volunteer. He met his wife Yehudit, who's a nurse and midwife, when both were working for the UN in Bangladesh. She has done a lot of work for UNESCO. She's American, he's British. She's Jewish, he's not. But their marriage in California was performed by a rabbi and they have a ketuba to prove it.

 

  THE FACT that the European Union will no longer have a rotating presidency does not mean that Spain, whose turn it would have been in January, will miss out entirely. According to Spanish Ambassador Alvaro Irenzo Gutierrez, there will be a transitional period in which Spain will have a role to play.

 

  IT MAY not be common knowledge, but before he entered the political arena, MK Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, dreamed of being a karate master. Hanegbi, 52, has been practicing karate since he was 10, and was taught by one of the first Japanese masters to come here. "I counted in Japanese. I yelled in Japanese and I was yelled at in Japanese," he revealed last week at a luncheon at the Crowne Plaza Hotel Jerusalem hosted by Japanese Ambassador Harushisa Takeuchi for members of the Knesset's Japan Friendship League and a delegation of Japanese business people and journalists. Hanegbi also wanted to practice karate in Japan and eventually realized that wish when he paid an official visit while environment minister.

 

Takeuchi, who speaks fluent English, welcomed his guests in halting Hebrew, switching momentarily to English to explain that he was going to give his address in Japanese, simply because he wanted to hear the language. A simultaneous translation into Hebrew was provided by Kenji Goto, third secretary in the embassy's Protocol and Politics Department, who happens to be a graduate of the Hebrew University, but whose Hebrew is not quite as fluent as that of head of the Protocol Department Mitsuhiko Shinomiya, whose Hebrew is excellent and without any trace of a Japanese accent.

 

MK Shai Hermesh, who heads the Friendship League, noted the diversity of his members, who not only represent the Knesset's political spectrum, but include males and females, Jews and non-Jews, haredim and secular, Ashkenazim and Sephardim. In addition to Hermesh and Hanegbi, members of the league who attended included Ya'acov Litzman, Taleb a-Sanaa, who took time out from Id al-Adha celebrations; Rachel Adato, David Rotem, Anastasia Michaeli and Faina Kirschenbaum.

 

  ROMANIAN AMBASSADOR Edward Iosiper and his wife Tatiana this year decided to celebrate their country's National Day at their residence in Herzliya Pituah instead of at a Tel Aviv hotel. Events of this kind almost always start with the playing of the national anthems of the ambassador's country and that of the host country. Guests gathered on the patio - and waited, and waited and waited... until finally the ambassador decided that it would be speeches first and anthems later. Immigrant Absorption Minister Sofa Landver represented the government.

 

Both Iosiper and Landver noted that when the Eastern Bloc countries severed relations with Israel after the Six Days War, Romania was the only country that maintained ties. These ties have been constant for six decades. The foreign ministries of both countries in June issued statements in celebration of 60 years of uninterrupted diplomacy. In the last week of November, President Traian Basescu attended a ceremony in Bucharest marking the release of a joint Romanian-Israeli postage stamp issue celebrating the fact that the first Yiddish theater in the world opened in 1876 in Iasi, Romania. A similar philatelic event was subsequently held here.

 

  APROPOS YIDDISH, a century ago, Czernowitz in Romania was selected for the first world Yiddish conference. Jews were not permitted such large scale public gatherings in Vilna or Warsaw. The Romanians took a far more liberal attitude, making Czernowitz a natural choice. Czernowitz featured prominently this week at the International Academic Conference "A Century of Yiddish 1908-2008" held at the Givat Ram Campus of the Hebrew University. Participants were totally enamored by a documentary film, Yiddish Czernowitz, made by Boris Sandler, editor of the Yiddish Forward of New York, and Chana Pollack, and clamored to be able to buy a copy. So far there's only the master video, but Sandler promised that copies would soon be available.

 

His own story is no less remarkable than his nostalgic tribute to Czernowitz and a Jewish world that is no more.He was born in Belz, graduated from the Kishinev Music Conservatory, went to Moscow to further his musical career and wrote for Sovietish Heimland. He then went back to Kishinev and started a Yiddish radio station, came to Israel and after a few years relocated yet again to take up his present position. In addition to being a musician and journalist, he also writes novels and plays - in Yiddish of course.

 

  THAI NATIONAL Day is celebrated on the birthday of King Bhumibol, who was born on December 5, 1927. Greatly loved and revered, the king has inspired his people to great accomplishments in many fields, and is quite an accomplished individual himself. The Thais are great on aesthetics, and although there weren't the traditional Thai fruit and vegetable sculptures, there were magnificent, breathtaking floral arrangements all over the Yam Restaurant in the Dan Hotel Tel Aviv. Ambassador Chatchaded Chartsuwan and Minister for the Improvement of Government Services Michael Eitan, who represented the government, spoke.

 

As far as cuisine was concerned, many of the guests were ecstatic about the authentic Thai offerings which were prepared by a Thai chef specially flown in for the occasion.

 

  AS A curtain raiser for its film festival, currently at the Jerusalem, Haifa and Tel Aviv Cinematheques, the Indian Embassy, in conjunction with Cinema Park and the India Israel Friendship Association, held a special screening at Cinema Park in Beit Agron, Jerusalem, where guests included popular Indian actor Anupam Kher and filmmaker Amol Palekar and his wife. The Palekars have been here before and said that they absolutely love Jerusalem.

 

Also present was Haim Topol who stars in The Jerusalem Time Elevator, a fast moving documentary that covers several periods of Jerusalem's history in a most riveting manner. The film, made by Ori Yardeni, founder and CEO of Cinema Park Network, was shown together with India in Motion of which Anupam Kher is the star. IIFA President Anat Bernstein-Reich said that Topol is well known in India, where many people have seen Fiddler on the Roof.

 

Indian Ambassador Navtej Sarna noted that both Palekar and Kher were "fundamental influences on Indian theater" and credited Palekar with redefining Bollywood. Edutainment of the nature of the two films was a very important development, he said, referring specifically to some 35,000 Israelis who go to India each year.

 

WHEN HE was in Jerusalem last month for the Saban forum, former US president Bill Clinton was given the same red carpet treatment he had received when in office. Clinton has always been popular here and continues to be so. Clinton did not spend all his time at the conference table. He also paid a visit to the Western Wall and was guided through its tunnels by Shmuel Rabinowitz, the rabbi of the Western Wall and Holy Sites.

 

n In addition, Clinton went wandering through the galleries at Hutzot Hayotzer. He stopped off at the Greenvurcel Judaica Gallery where he admired the ritual objects, particularly the new innovative designs of the Hanukka menorot. He also displayed a surprising degree of knowledge about Jewish customs and traditions. At the gallery of artist Motke Blum, he not only stopped to look, but actually purchased a painting. For Blum, every buyer is special, but Clinton was extra special.

 

In the interim, Clinton's daughter Chelsea and her long time boyfriend investment banker Marc Mezvinsky announced their engagement. The young couple plan to marry in the summer, which will put something of a strain on Chelsea's mom, who has to juggle wedding arrangements with her job as secretary of state. But Madeleine Albright managed to plan a wedding while she was secretary of state and she's offered to help Hillary Clinton do the same.

 

  FEDERATION OF Chambers of Commerce President Uriel Lynn and his predecessor Dan Gillerman have always been on the best of terms, and will now have better relations than ever before since Gillerman's appointment last week as chairman of Markstone Capital Partners. Gillerman, who left his position at the FCC to become ambassador to the UN, had many tempting offers after his return, but the challenge of making sure that Markstone stays afloat - after its founding chairman Elliott Broidy was forced to step down, after confessing to having made illegal payments to senior New York officials - apparently appealed to him. Markstone was very active in the work of the FCC, said Lynn, who believes that it will be even more so with Gillerman at the helm.   MAYBE YOU can't have your cake and eat it - but you can have your schnitzel. Singer Avi Toledano, while filming a schnitzel commercial for Off Tov, sat down to genuinely enjoy a schnitzel with the company's CEO Moti Goldberg during the break.

 

  THE COUNTRY'S most widely read Hebrew daily, Yediot Aharonot, this week celebrates its 70th anniversary, and on Friday will publish a special supplement. While it may have the largest number of readers, Yediot - which was founded in December 1939 by Nahum Kumarov who sold it to Yehuda Mozes, who ran it with his son Noah, and is now being run by Noah's son Noni - is not the oldest daily newspaper. That honor belongs to Haaretz which was founded in 1919, was purchased by Shlomo Zalman Schocken in 1937 and given to his son Gershom to manage. It is today published by Gershom's son Amos.

 

Other daily papers, particularly those run by political parties, fell by the wayside. Ma'ariv was founded in February 1948 by a breakaway group from Yediot led by then editor Azriel Carlebach. Today, the paper, which in its early years outpaced Yediot in readership, is run by the Nimrodi family. The second oldest daily newspaper is The Jerusalem Post, founded on December 1, 1932 by Gershon Agron who edited it until 1955, when he was elected mayor of Jerusalem.

 

Hamodia, the religious daily, is probably the oldest surviving daily newspaper of its kind. It was founded in Eastern Europe a hundred years ago, stopped publication during World War II and was revived here in 1950.

 

greerfc@gmail.com

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

SUSPEND YOUR ZIONISM

YISRAEL MEDAD

 

I won't keep you in suspension, nor in suspense. I will be very clear: While I can comprehend Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's concern for what he considers more primary national interests than keeping his electoral platform promises to those who voted for him regarding the continuation of the Jewish return to the national homeland, his recent decisions are quite incomprehensible. To think that even the opposition leader, Kadima chairwoman MK Tzipi Livni, can justifiably criticize him from a right-wing perspective says much about Netanyahu's policies.

 

On the Likud Web site, which oddly appears as netanyahu.org.il, as if a personal plaything, one can read the aims of the Likud which include: advocating the integrity of the Jewish homeland, bringing together the Jewish people in the Land of Israel, cultivating love of the country, safeguarding the right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel as an eternal, inalienable right while working diligently to settle and develop all parts of the land of Israel, and extending national sovereignty to them. All admirable missions, well-steeped in the tradition of the nationalist camp of Zionism.

 

And yet, on November 25, Netanyahu told his security cabinet that international circumstances dictate that for the promotion of Israel's broad national interests, a moratorium on construction across the Green Line will be adopted over the next 10 months. And its purpose? To convey the message that the government wants to enter into negotiations with the Palestinians.

 

That's it? His Bar-Ilan speech was insufficient? His running off to meet US President Barack Obama at the UN wasn't enough? His subsequent White House late-night powwow didn't make things understandable?

 

IN THE fashion of literary criticism, let's deconstruct Netanyahu's words. Obviously, "international circumstances" mean that Obama can't mobilize Europe and Russia and is going independent - with Iran, with North Korea Korea and other hot spots.

 

"Israel's broad national interests" are the bombing of Iran if all else fails, and, to quote Murphy, all else will fail.

 

Even a continuing Jewish presence in our national homeland must be secondary, at least for 10 months.

 

Netanyahu presumes that the pressure being applied by the US president can be offset by the "freeze" of normal growth and it is the only chance Israel has of gaining support for a military operation against Iran. That this is also simply perceived as a capitulation does not bode well, not for Iran and not for Jewish rights in Judea and Samaria. "Yield once, surrender twice" is the lesson Netanyahu has put aside.

 

Before declaring this moratorium, we could have expected that the issue of the Jewish neighborhoods in eastern Jerusalem be settled with the Americans but this was not done. And so, Gilo and Shimon Hatzaddik remain "on-the-table" items. And the pressure will only increase. Palestinian Authority officials are not forthcoming but are raising the ante.

 

The EU is now declaring a capital of a nonexistent state in the midst of Israel's sovereign capital. As for the truly "broad national interests" of Israel, a public reminding that the retention of Judea and Samaria also has a security element is in order.

 

Iran is indeed a supreme security threat. If the Al Arabiya report that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad now claims that the US is blocking the return of the mahdi - the imam believed by Muslims to be the messiah - is indeed credible, then Iran is a very dangerous threat.

 

NEVERTHELESS, THERE is Teheran and there is also Tulkarm. Iran is an immediate matter but no less so are the hills of Judea and Samaria.

 

If those hills are surrendered, if the heights overlooking Ben-Gurion Airport, Ra'anana and Netanya fall into Fatah or Hamas rule, if Netanyahu yields on that issue - for that is the intention of the Arabs, Obama and the EU - then even if Iran is dealt with, Israel would still eventually face an existential threat, this time from Jenin, Kalkilya and Bethlehem.

 

The loss of Judea and Samaria would be just as great a security risk. It happened with Gaza. And it can - and will - happen again.

 

When Netanyahu proclaims that "the future of settlement will be determined only in a permanent peace agreement," we all must realize that that future is not assured by his policies.

 

In the meantime, the procedures adopted with regard to the moratorium, its supervision and hardship appeals board indicate a woeful lack of preparation, which is not very encouraging. There are, at present, real economic losses being suffered. It would seem this government is quite capable of repeating the poor record of the Sharon and Olmert governments of not protecting and securing the property and fiscal rights of Israeli citizens.

 

Combined with the existing discrimination in Israel not applying any parallel limitations on Arab construction or in following through on demolition orders, there is a moral, legal and social fabric issue the government is fumbling over.

 

In essence, Netanyahu's government is inadequately dealing with the internal-social front, the economic front and the diplomatic-security front.

 

Our prime minister is asking us to suspend our Zionism, suspend our natural logic and suspend our economic personal freedoms for quirky political behavior that will last 10 months - after which all will revert to normal: normal growth, normal development, normal security. This is truly a matter of suspended belief.

 

The writer, who resides in Shiloh, serves as a spokesperson for the Yesha Council of Jewish Communities, was director of Israel's Media Watch and was a political aide to Members of Knesset, 1981-1994. He is also secretary of the To the Temple Mount advocacy group. He blogs at www.myrightword.blogspot.com

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

HOW A SOCCER GAME SURVIVED A HIJACKING ATTEMPT

ROB BROWN

 

However well or poorly Hapoel Tel Aviv performs in the next stage of its Europa League campaign, the club at least survived a hijacking attempt when it flew to the gritty city of Glasgow for its last qualifying match. Not an air hijacking, it should be swiftly added, but a fairly ferocious onslaught nonetheless.

 

The English humorist P. G. Wodehouse once memorably remarked that "it is never difficult to tell the difference between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine." On a bitterly cold night the Israeli team was up against a whole battalion of Scots with a real grievance - both inside and outside the stadium.

 

Hapoel had to contend not just with the Celtic team - eager for revenge on the playing field - but with a determined effort by the Scottish Trades Union Congress to turn the high-profile match into anti-Israel protest. The STUC tried to distribute 10,000 Palestinian flags outside the ground, which it incited the crowd to wave in the faces of the small cluster of Israeli supporters.

 

In the event, the Tel Aviv team got a reception not anywhere near as frosty as the Scottish weather. Match stewards intercepted the protesters and wrestled one of them to ground when he attempted to run onto the park toward the end of the game. The vast majority of Celtic supporters refused to play ball with the keffiyeh-clad comrades and just a handful of Palestinian flags were smuggled into the ground.

 

THE NEXT morning's match report in the Daily Record, Scotland's top-selling tabloid, stated: "The good news was that Celtic's people were not so bored or so restless that they felt the need to indulge in the STUC's hair-brained proposal to stage some sort of protest over the state of affairs in the Middle East... And thank God for that."

 

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to Britain, flew up to Glasgow to attend the match and said afterward: "Sport prevailed over politics. Since Hapoel was originally a team based on the Israeli unions, it seems ironic that people demonstrated against them."

 

Sense and decency didn't prevail just by luck. It happened because the officials of Celtic FC stood up to the pro-Palestine lobby's attempt to hijack the Hapoel match for a political demonstration. They expressed concerns about the possible threat to public safety and questioned whether the move complied with UEFA regulations.

 

Even more important was the stance taken by many ordinary Celtic supporters, who mobilized against the move on Internet message boards and blogs. A torrent of 635 comments flooded into the Celtic quick news site, with one blogger commenting: "They [Hapoel Tel Aviv] will receive the warm welcome all visiting fans get at Celtic Park... Welcome Hapoel fans, I hope you enjoy your stay in Glasgow and your team gets a good hiding."

 

It takes guts to take a stand for Israel in Glasgow, or anywhere else in Scotland. There has been a powerful pro-Palestine lobby in these parts from as far back as the early 1980s, when the young George Galloway twinned Dundee with Nablus and Yasser Arafat was almost elected as lord rector of Glasgow University.

 

The author takes great pride in having successfully campaigned against that move as the then editor of the Glasgow student rag. But anti-Israel sentiment has continued to rise in Scotland and reached a crescendo in April when the STUC called for a boycott, sanctions and disinvestment from Israel.

 

Subsequently, the Edinburgh Film Festival returned a grant from the Israeli Embassy in London after an outcry by the English agitprop director, Ken Loach, the moviemaker who rarely lets a good plot get in the way of political propaganda.

 

ALL OF this is extremely saddening to anyone who knows the history of Scotland, never mind the suffering of the Jewish people. Since the Protestant Reformation successive generations of Calvinist Scots have held a great affinity with the biblical nation. The Scottish Covenanters in the 17th century even seriously believed that they were created a "New Israel" in the harsh climate of Caledonia.

 

Their unholy descendants at Holyrood, the district of Edinburgh that houses the Scottish Parliament, would go along with the growing international consensus that Israel should be treated the world's number one international pariah. Not one of these so called "Bravehearts" was brave enough to stand up to the STUC.

 

One Conservative parliamentarian did put down a motion condemning the action, but he only did that after the match - and it didn't get passed by the Parliament. Only Steven Purcell, leader of Glasgow City Council, wrote to the STUC to express his "disgust" at its using a football match for political purposes.

 

Still, there is some satisfaction to be had from the fact that ordinary decent supporters of Celtic - a club has traditionally drawn much of is support from the descendants Catholic Irish immigrants to Scotland - stood up to the pro-Palestine lobby and extended a warm welcome on a freezing night to a group of Israelis. Once again, Glasgow lived up to its billing as the Friendly City.

 

The writer is a Scottish journalist and academic based in Dublin.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

THE SWEDISH INITIATIVE AS METAPHOR

YOSSI ALPHER

 

The government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had no convincing reason of substance to be upset about the Swedish request that the Council of the European Union endorse a Palestinian state with "east Jerusalem as its capital" - wording watered down in the final EU text issued Tuesday. Of course the wording of the initial resolution could have and should have been less hostile to Israel, e.g. by explicitly recognizing west Jerusalem as Israel's capital and doing more than merely "taking note" of Netanyahu's settlement freeze.

 

But what does Netanyahu expect? Basically, the proposal reiterated known European and international positions. And Israel's recent behavior in Jerusalem - the disastrous house expulsions in Sheikh Jarrah, excavations at Silwan/City of David and expansion into disputed territory at Gilo - essentially invites a reprimand.

 

Still, there is little likelihood of real European pressure on Israel. The EU has limited clout as a diplomatic player in the Arab-Israel conflict. Conceivably, that situation may soon change, with the advent of an EU president and foreign minister. But for the moment, we simply don't know to what extent this new system will enable the union of 27 European states to better formulate and implement a foreign policy. Meanwhile, we recall that last July, outgoing EU foreign policy coordinator Javier Solana proposed that the UN plan unilaterally to create and recognize a Palestinian state - seemingly a much more far-reaching initiative - without generating more than an international yawn.

 

SWEDEN'S thwarted initiative represented the dying gasp of the old EU system under which the rotating state president can take all kinds of bizarre and ultimately pointless diplomatic initiatives. Last January, the Czech Republic held the presidency during Israel's incursion into Gaza: Due to inexperience and a heavy pro-Israel tilt, it managed to neutralize EU influence almost completely. Then there was French President Nicolas Sarkozy's "Mediterranean Union." In Sweden's case, a government that has demonstrated a clear pro-Palestinian tilt was trying at the 11th hour to influence future EU policy with proposals that, however logical, were guaranteed not to find favor in either Jerusalem or Washington.

 

We have already noted Jerusalem's response. As for Washington, even the watered-down resolution will certainly not render easier the efforts of Obama administration peace emissary George Mitchell to restart negotiations based on what Netanyahu has - rather than what he has not - done regarding settlements and Jerusalem. The PLO places exaggerated faith in European support and, accordingly, may now stiffen its refusal to negotiate. In this regard, the Swedish initiative represents the near total absence in recent months of close US-EU coordination regarding efforts to resolve the conflict.

 

Remember the Quartet? It represented president George W. Bush's relatively successful effort to maintain such coordination, even as the Bush administration did far too little on the diplomatic front. Now the Obama administration has tried harder diplomatically yet accomplished equally little, and without effective coordination with the Europeans to boot. In this regard President Barack Obama, too, "deserves" this Swedish initiative.

 

Finally, if Netanyahu took umbrage at the Swedish attempt to create a Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem, this cannot but return us to a fundamental dilemma regarding the extent of our prime minister's "conversion" from Greater Land of Israel Revisionist to champion of the two-state solution.

 

Surely Netanyahu by now understands that a genuine solution will require the ceding of Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods to a Palestinian state. In this context, he seemingly says and does the right thing - the Bar-Ilan speech, removing checkpoints, the settlement freeze, confrontations with the settlers.

 

Yet in parallel he leads us, through innuendo and body language, to understand that all this is being undertaken for very different reasons - to make the Americans happy so they'll keep their eye on the Iranian threat, "prove" the Palestinians don't want peace and keep Labor in the coalition - rather than to extricate Israel from a demographic disaster that threatens its future integrity as a Jewish state. So the settlers get reassurances and concessions and the creeping and utterly counterproductive Judaization of east Jerusalem continues.

 

Thus the Swedish initiative can be seen as metaphor for many things. Yet, however understandable the frustrations it reflects, I doubt the initiative will be seen in the long term as a positive step toward peace.

 

The writer is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of Internet publications. He is former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. This article was originally published by www.bitterlemons.org and is reprinted with permission, with minor changes by the author.

 

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HAARETZ

EDITORIAL

ONE CHAIN OF COMMAND

 

It appears Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi lost his patience this week after the incitement by Rabbi Eliezer Melamed, the head of the Har Bracha hesder yeshiva. Ashkenazi took the uncharacteristic step of recommending to Defense Minister Ehud Barak that the yeshiva be removed from the hesder arrangement, in which religious studies are combined with military service.

Ashkenazi is right. Melamed permits himself to excoriate the IDF, both orally and in writing, to dismiss the authority of its commanders and to call on his students to disobey orders. This also happened during the Gaza disengagement, after which then-chief of staff Dan Halutz recommended that yeshivas whose rabbis encourage the refusal of orders be removed from the hesder arrangement. It is happening even more now in the face of the limited construction freeze in the settlements.

The defense minister is loath to take the chief of staff's advice. People close to Barak argue that the pressure to sever the relationship between the army and the yeshivas is causing a closing of the ranks, and that even moderate rabbis are voicing support for the hesder yeshivas. In light of this, they say, harsher measures should not be taken against those calling for the refusal of military orders.

That is a mistake. The government must not give in to those who do not accept its authority, particularly if certain rabbis threaten that their students will not enlist in the army. The more the state ignores the incitement in the hesder yeshivas, the more it allows it to grow.

This growth is not "spiritual," as the rabbis label it. By virtue of the rabbi's position and the special arrangement between the army and the yeshiva, this growth effectively means a division of authority. The inciting rabbi is not "expressing his opinion." He is telling his students to do the opposite of what their commanders instruct them to do. This division is a surefire recipe for the breakup of the army and a sign of anarchy.

The rabbis' disingenuous claim that, just like university professors, they have the right to freedom of expression is completely groundless; the army has no arrangement with an academic institution similar to what it maintains with the hesder yeshivas. There is also no similarity between the influence of a professor, however charismatic, and the authority of a yeshiva head. Yet the fact that the rabbis of all the yeshivas have rallied around the inciting rabbi helps prove the inadequacy of their leadership.

About two weeks ago, at the annual memorial for David and Paula Ben-Gurion, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there is no place for refusal, there are no ideological factions in the IDF and there is a single chain of command. The chief of staff's recommendation puts that declaration to the test.

 

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HAARETZ

EDITORIAL

BIRDS OF A FEATHER

BY ALUF BENN

 

There is a lot of similarity between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to freeze construction in the settlements and U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan.

They both came out against their own political bases: Netanyahu against the right and Obama against the left. They both ignored ideology: Netanyahu surrendered "the right of Jews to live anywhere in the Land of Israel," and Obama - peaceful conflict resolution.

They both know their decisions will achieve nothing: The settlement freeze will not bring peace, the surge in Afghanistan will not bring victory. They both also promised in advance that the measures they took were one-offs.

One might be suspicious they are using the same speechwriter, given the similar explanations both gave for their controversial decisions.

The prime minister explained the freeze by "broad national considerations." Obama said beefing up the forces in Afghanistan was a "vital national interest."

For Netanyahu it was "a step that was not easy - a painful step." The American president did not "make this decision lightly."

When the two leaders met in Jerusalem during Obama's presidential campaign, he told Netanyahu that people saw them as strongly ideological, but they were in fact both pragmatists. He was right. Despite all the disagreement and public tension between then, Netanyahu and Obama are alike in terms of their leadership styles.

They are both excellent speakers who have difficulty making decisions. They prefer to wait, hold another round of consultations and another meeting, until they garner support. Internal consensus around their decision is more important to them than the image of a determined leader who acts swiftly.

They work by persuasion, not by force or orders.

Netanyahu called the "forum of seven" cabinet members for more than 10 meetings until the freeze was a matter of general agreement. Obama had some 10 sessions on Afghanistan until all his advisers agreed on a common plan.

According to the New York Times, Obama's Moshe Ya'alon was U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who was not enthusiastic about the troop increase and asked many hard questions. In the end, he too was convinced.

The group dynamics of long meetings, of belonging to the inner circle of those in the know, has an effect even on ideologues like Biden and Benny Begin. It is interesting that Netanyahu had a lot fewer leaks than Obama, who was furious over the reports that emanated from his closed meetings.

In Netanyahu's and Obama's lexicon, the term "national interest" is justification for decisions made contrary to their basic beliefs. Netanyahu buckled to American pressure, out of fear of international isolation. Obama gave in to the pressure from his military, out of fear he would be seen as weak on Al-Qaida and the Taliban.

They both softened the original demands made on them, adding exit strategies.

And like their predecessors - Rabin on the Oslo Accords, Sharon in the disengagement, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson on Vietnam - Netanyahu and Obama are also trying to cover up their initial hesitation by standing up to their adversaries, lest they appear weak.

What can be learned from this? First of all, that Netanyahu and Obama understand each other very well. When the American president looks the Israeli prime minister in the eye, and vice-versa, each knows what the other is going through. Secondly, that they appreciate and respect power more than beliefs and values. Third, that the fundamental laws of politics work even on leaders who were elected with a promise for "change."

This is a basis for evaluating Netanyahu's and Obama's future policies.

But the big question remains: What will Netanyahu do when push comes to shove on going to war against Iran? Will he avoid taking action and explain that the "national interest" requires him to sit tight, or will he lead like Obama - who captivated with his statements about the "good" war in Afghanistan - and embark on a military adventure to make good on his promise "to prevent a second Holocaust?"

The like-minded leader in the Oval Office can be an example in both directions.

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 HAARETZ

EDITORIAL

GIVE THEM BOOKS

BY AVIRAMA GOLAN

 

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz's objection to a bill allowing Arabic language books to be imported, sponsored by MKs Yuli Tamir (Labor), Zeev Bielski (Kadima) and Yariv Levin (Likud), is a ridiculous show of force. By using a British Mandate era ordinance from 1939, which bans the import of books from "enemy states," Steinitz is showing Israeli Arabs that not only can they not choose where they can live or the size of the budget they will be allocated, they also cannot decide what they can read.

The bill's sponsors cite the need to develop research and higher education, and the right of every person to read and purchase books in their own language in explaining their support for importing books from Arab countries. The need for such a law arose a few months ago when the state accused Salah Abassi, a publisher from Haifa, of trading with enemy nations and refused to allow him to continue importing "Harry Potter," "Pinocchio" and "Peter Pan" from Syria and Lebanon. The very same government, by the way, was very proud that Abassi had succeeded in distributing Hebrew literature translated into Arabic in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Bahrain.

It is ludicrous that Steinitz objects to importing these books. He obviously knows that anyone can order Syrian and Lebanese best sellers over the Internet, or buy them in the mall in Ramallah. More serious at hand is the liberty the finance minister and his colleagues are taking in restricting the freedom of reading for Arab children in Israel.

Arabic children's literature in the region was dealt a serious blow in 1948 - when many educators and writers left or were expelled, and the education system was rebuilt under the supervision of the military administration. Jaffa's flourishing period of creativity in the mid-1940s was halted, and only in the 1960s were children's books in Arabic published again, as well as copies of old books from the '30s and '50s.

The "open bridges" policy since 1967 brought a change. High-quality children's books reached Arab book stores through the border crossings, and children were exposed to stories from Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. Educators nonetheless felt a need for local works, which would describe the day-to-day reality for children in their own language.

Journalist and author Salam Jubran wrote that there is a need to write children's literature. He was the first among the Arab intelligentsia who thought it was not enough to deal with issues of politics and identity. In the early 1980s, Abd al-Latif Nassar, a lecturer at Hebrew University, began to publish a series of books on the lives on Arab children in Israel.

Since then there has been great progress. The center for children's literature at the Arab College For Education in Haifa holds writing seminars. The Israel Center for Libraries has been nurturing the translation of children's books since the mid-'90s and recently published dozens of books for toddlers in Nazareth - including a number of well-known works translated from Hebrew, and a good-sized list of books in Arabic from local authors. Beit Berl College is home to the Kamil Kilani Center for Arabic Children's Literature, named after the writer who died in 1954 and left behind dozens of series of classic literature he adapted for children, including Shakespeare's plays and other masterpieces.

But publishing children's books in Arabic in Israel is not profitable and very few are willing to invest in it. The Arabic book industry in Israel is slipping. Once the communist party distributed books for free. Today Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who controls most of the Arabic television channels, provides cheap, available entertainment. Educators and parents are desperate for activities that expose children to books and encourage them to read.

This bill could have been a wonderful opportunity for Israel. Without much effort, and for not a lot of money, both the Culture and Sports Ministry and the Education Ministry could have offered encouragement to authors, illustrators, publishers and editors - and reaped the benefits of nurturing Arab culture in Israel from a young age. In practice, the government is giving with a closed fist. Now it also wants to censor.

Someone needs to tell Steinitz about Palestinian musician Marcel Khalife. Israel banned sales of his song "Asfoor" ("bird" in Arabic), which was recorded in Lebanon. A relatively small store in Nazareth made tens of thousands of copies of the banned recording and the song turned into a symbol sung enthusiastically at every event. Anyone who thinks it's possible to stop art at the border and expel it, seems to have missed an important lesson in national history.

 

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 HAARETZ

EDITORIAL

HOW ISRAEL MANIPULATES ITS CITIZENS

BY AMIRA HASS

 

Would any of the settlers who opposed the Civil Administration inspectors this week be living in the territories had the governments of Israel not established and encouraged them? Would the Gush Katif evacuees have moved to mobile homes in Ariel in the expectation of spacious permanent housing had the government clearly declared that this was forbidden - because the settlements will be evacuated in the near future for a peace agreement - and that evacuation-compensation money would not be paid to anyone who moves to the West Bank?

Do the settlers clashing with the forces of law and order not know that those who have committed crimes - from racist threats and blocking roads, to wholesale cutting down of trees, arson and beating and murdering Palestinians - have not been investigated or have been forgiven and forgotten with a wink?

The settlers' feeling of betrayal is natural. Haven't the state and its institutions taught us that the settler is superior to everyone else?

 

Yes. The settler, in fact, is us.

The freeze orders will not change what exists now: an elite state for Jews and a sub-space for Palestinians - truncated, cut up, asphyxiated.

The distinction in the mind nowadays between the state of Israel and the settlers is artificial.

So is the distinction between the bad and the good, the violent and the law-abiding, the residents of the Migron outpost and the residents of Etzion Bloc settlements and the territories that have been annexed to Jerusalem, or those who live to the West of the separation fence.

Those who laud the freeze orders are thinking about relations with the United States.

The subordinated and occupied do not factor into their calculations. And indeed the land that was stolen from them in Beit Jala (for the benefit of Gilo) is like the land of Qalqilyah that Alfei Menashe coveted and is coveting.

The legitimacy of the settlement blocs exists only in the Israeli consensus. In reality, it is these blocs and Ma'aleh Adumim that are destroying the chance of a fair peace, because they and their separated roads are laying the groundwork for a crippled Palestinian political entity.

There is a lot of ingratitude in the media assault on the settlers, who have been manning barricades for the sake of a reality from which many Israelis are benefiting and accept as natural.

Had the governments of Israel been interested in containing the Golem they had created on time, they would not have cynically exploited the Oslo agreement to accelerate building and lure more and more Israelis with settlers' benefits.

Former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin would have evacuated the Hebron and Kiryat Arba settlers after the massacre Baruch Goldstein committed in the Tomb of the Patriarchs / Ibrahimi Mosque.

His government and subsequent governments would not have strangled Bethlehem with the Tunnels Road and with the "moderate" settlement of Efrat that snakes and twists along the hills.

They would have prepared the public for a just scenario by which to bring all the settlers back home and would have apologized for having lured them to transgression.

However, in 1993 we missed a one-time opportunity to develop as an entity, the aim of which is not territorial expansion at the expense of another people - who were prepared for very painful concessions for the sake of its independence and for the sake of peace.

We missed an opportunity to expel the deed of disposession from our state's institutional and mental chromosomes.

It is no wonder the setters are saying there is no difference between Kibbutz Baram and Psagot, between Givat Shaul and Alon Moreh.

Precisely in the shadow of diplomatic negotiations, Israel chose a policy of accelerated settlement in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

It is expelling Palestinian inhabitants from their homes there by various methods.

In this way, Israel is drawing a straight line between Kiryat Shmona and Beit El, between Tel Aviv and Givat Ze'ev. It has made settlers of us all.

 

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HAARETZ

EDITORIAL

BIALIK TOO HARD? TRY KOFIKO

BY NA'AMA SHEFFI

 

Every teacher has heard - and a lot more often than once - the question "Is this going to be on the exam?" Now Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar comes along seeking to free teachers from this annoyance. In his reforms, there will be fewer exams, especially fewer matriculation exams.

Like his two predecessors, Sa'ar wants to shake things up to improve education and students' achievements. He proposes, rightly, to end the practice of breaking the school year into three parts; the academic year is short in any case. Yes, it would be good to get rid of this trimester system, which requires many exams and grading before teachers can properly teach the material. A new system could allot more time to learning and deeper understanding.

The problem begins with the way Sa'ar plans to use the new calendar. Under the proposed reforms, important subjects like English and math would be taught throughout the school year, whereas "trivial" subjects like civics would be taught only during a single semester.

Indeed, this is excellent preparation for the university entrance exams, but what about internalizing humanistic values and developing abstract thinking? If we recall that in high school most students acquire information about arithmetic and trigonometry but do not acquire tools for abstract reasoning, this curriculum will leave a dangerous void.

Worse still is the proposal to reduce the Education Ministry's responsibility for the statewide matriculation exams, transferring some of them to the schools. This step is liable to lead to superficial study material and an increase in the gaps between well-off and poor areas. When we add the proposal to increase the use of individual contracts for principals and teachers, the reforms might lead to alarming gaps among schools.

To show achievements, principals will use statistical tables reflecting astronomical grades. On the assumption that only some students are gifted enough to attain such grades, principals will have to resort to one of two actions: ensure that the weak drop out, or adjust the exams. Students from prosperous areas will do well. Educated parents, or their money, will enable students to cope with the learning materials, even the toughest. Students with less-educated and less-prosperous parents will lose every battle - and the entire war. If they are not encouraged to drop out of the system they will survive only in weak schools that examine them using suitably designed tests.

Internal rather than statewide matriculation exams - whose supervision would be haphazard under the minister's proposal - would be drawn up accordingly. Is our national poet Bialik too difficult for students? Let's go with Kofiko, the monkey in a popular book series for young children.

Once again we will be surprised to find that students with a weak background are very weak and students with a strong background are very strong. Once again we will be shocked at ignorance about civics. Once again we will ask ourselves why the English know who the Knights of the Round Table were and the Israelis barely know why they light the Hanukkah candles.

It's odd that a fine parliamentarian like Sa'ar is choosing to harm the foundations of Israeli culture and civic responsibility. He, who as a Knesset member vigorously defended the principles of civic equality and the state's responsibility toward its citizens, has chosen to damage Israeli society's most important piece of infrastructure. His sincere aspiration to improve the system has moved from the phase of examination and reparation to a phase that casts aside the foundations of an education worthy of the name.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

SENATOR BRUNO'S LEGACY

 

The conviction of Joseph Bruno, the former state senator who once was one of the most powerful state leaders in the country, is an indictment of the entire New York State Legislature. Mr. Bruno was convicted on two felony counts of "theft of honest services" after a trial that showed how he mingled taxpayers' business with his own — and made it clear to one and all why state leaders have taken care not to clean up their legislative pigpen.

 

There's just way too much money to be made.

 

Mr. Bruno, who freely used his office and his staff for private business, earned more than $3 million in fees by getting unions and others with business before the state (and who wanted his help with that business) to invest in one of his private profit-making concerns.

 

It was the federal government that rooted out this shameful behavior, not the state attorney general or the Albany district attorney or the feeble Legislative Ethics Commission.

 

It was bad enough that these people did not, or would not, see what was happening around them. But the testimony eliminates any last feeble excuse for lawmakers to explain their failure to enact real ethics reform.

 

Here is how they should fill the Bruno loopholes:

 

• State law should explicitly forbid lawmakers' use of government services for their private businesses. That includes staff, copying machines and office space. Senator Daniel Squadron, a Manhattan Democrat working on an ethics bill, said Mr. Bruno "looked like he hung a shingle outside the majority leader's office."

 

• Disclosure of outside income needs to get real. The annual disclosure reports for the Legislative Ethics Commission reveal almost nothing. The amounts earned are in ranges from Category A, which is under $5,000, to Category F, which is $250,000 and above. The exact amounts should be public; now even the letter categories are deleted when an ethics report is released. Also, the reports must be computerized. As it is, the New York Public Interest Research Group scanned all 212 reports and posted them on their Web site — with blank spaces where the income levels should be.

 

All details are kept secret from the public. Consultants don't have to reveal their clients, a fact that made it easier for former Assemblyman Anthony Seminerio to create a mock consulting firm that collected payments from hospitals and others who wanted his help in Albany. Mr. Seminerio pleaded guilty in June to corruption.

 

The 50 or so lawyers in the Legislature, including the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, and the Republican Senate leader, Dean Skelos, are not required to reveal their clients. What if those clients have business with the state, which certainly means that their business crosses the desks of these lawmakers? The public is kept in the dark. That needs to be changed.

 

Mr. Silver, one of the state's most powerful Democrats, is listed as being "of counsel" to Weitz & Luxenberg, one of the state's most prominent personal-injury law firms. His annual income from that firm is widely estimated to be about double his state salary. The public has to guess because, of course, that income from the law firm is not made public.

 

The clients of Mr. Skelos, a lawyer with Ruskin, Moscou & Faltischek, a prominent Long Island law firm, are also not available for public scrutiny. The same goes for about 48 other lawyers. Attorney-client privilege should not be used as a way to hide conflicts of interest. There are ways of making that work — like telling clients in advance that the relationship will be made public.

 

• The ethics process needs actual oversight and enforcement. As bad as these disclosure forms are, the ethics commission apparently fails to figure out whether they are accurate. And there is no enforcement when lawmakers abuse what few rules exist. It is, in short, an invitation to corruption.

 

What is needed, at a minimum, is a random review. An ethics commission with clout could do such an audit, and if a legislator broke the law the file should go to the attorney general or other law enforcement officials.

 

• The state law must be clearer on what constitutes an unwarranted abuse of office. State law is full of warnings about a lawmaker making "unauthorized exercise" of "official functions" or using the public job and public resources "to secure unwarranted privileges." That's not been strong enough or clear enough to stop the rampant influence-peddling. New York City's laws are more precise, and they could serve as a model in Albany.

 

The only good news is that almost half of New York's legislators do not have outside businesses — at least 28 of 62 senators and 70 of 150 assembly members. They should form a noisy army to demand support for ethics reform from their colleagues who should be nervous about Mr. Bruno's conviction.

 

Over his decades in the Legislature and his 14 years as leader, Mr. Bruno had structures named for him — a stadium, a school, a highway. It is time for another monument: the Joseph Bruno Ethics Loophole Closing Law.

 

This article is part of a series examining the political and structural crisis in the New York State government. The series can be read at nytimes.com/opinion.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE 'TERROR GAP'

 

Under federal law, people who pose a heightened risk of violence cannot buy or own firearms, including convicted felons, domestic abusers, the seriously mentally ill and several other categories. Suspected terrorist is not one them.

 

Individuals on the government's terrorist watch list can be barred from boarding airplanes, but not from purchasing high-powered guns or explosives. Bipartisan legislation in both houses of Congress would end this ridiculous loophole, commonly known as the "terror gap."

 

Introduced in the Senate by Frank Lautenberg, a New Jersey Democrat, and in the House by Representative Peter King, a Republican of Long Island, this reform was first offered in 2007 with support from the Bush administration, a rare departure from the gun lobby's party line. The Obama administration has endorsed the bill.

 

This is no small problem. An audit by the Government Accountability Office released last June found that since 2004, people on the terrorism watch list succeeded in purchasing firearms 865 times in 963 attempts. The relatively few denials owed to another factor like a felony conviction. A 2005 G.A.O. review found people on the watch list were able to buy weapons in 35 of 44 attempts between February 2004 and June 2004.

 

The National Rifle Association has voiced opposition to the legislation. To justify its stance, the group cites a Justice Department inspector general's report in March that found thousands of people placed on the terrorism watch list erroneously while people with genuine ties to terrorism who should be on the list are left off. The Justice Department needs to improve that record. But the list's imperfections are no basis for preventing the government from blocking the sale of guns or explosives to those known or suspected of having terrorist ties.

 

The terror-gap measure is more modest and balanced than its opponents make it appear. It would not automatically disqualify people on the watch list from purchasing a weapon. Rather, the attorney general would be given discretionary power to deny the issuance of a firearm or explosives in instances when the government has reason to believe the person may use the weapon in connection with terrorism. The authority would have to be exercised according to written guidelines. Due process safeguards are built in to permit the affected person to challenge a denial.

 

Mayors Against Illegal Guns, the public safety coalition led by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has started a drive to alert lawmakers and the public to the real issues here. We applaud the group's refusal to be intimidated by the N.R.A.'s political attacks, and we urge the Democrats who control Congress to show similar fortitude by scheduling prompt hearings.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

AMERICAN STORIES, FROM MEXICAN ROOTS

BY LAWRENCE DOWNES

 

The first song on the new album "American Horizon" sends you right away to a place you've never been and might never want to leave: a tropical countryside under a full moon, where men come down from hills on horseback and women gather by a lagoon, full of anticipation that a warm, dark evening will become, through music and dance, a night of light and heat.

 

The song, "La Luna," is sung in Spanish by, of all people, Taj Mahal, the African-American blues master. Though not a native speaker, he cradles the words in his gravel voice, and when he sings of the moonlight as "muy sensual," and of this "baile celestial," this heavenly dance, he clearly knows what he's talking about, and so do you.

 

That's the strange beauty of "American Horizon," by a little-known Mexican-American folk-roots group, Los Cenzontles, with guest appearances by Taj Mahal and David Hidalgo of Los Lobos. It both honors and upends traditional Mexican music, tapping deep roots as it flowers into something completely new, and distinctly American.

 

What may be more remarkable is that Los Cenzontles — The Mockingbirds — is not the creation of some music label's cross-marketing department, but a tiny storefront nonprofit organization for young people in San Pablo, Calif., a heavily immigrant and Hispanic neighborhood outside Oakland.

 

There's a whole story, much too long to tell here, of what Los Cenzontles Mexican Arts Center has accomplished since it began 20 years ago. Its founder, Eugene Rodriguez, is a third-generation Mexican-American, a classical guitarist who wanted to create a haven for youths in a community scarred by gang violence, graffiti and drugs.

 

It started out simply as a safe place where children could learn dance and music and do their homework. It's still that — a humble space in a noisy strip mall, with couches and stuffed chairs to flop into and small stages where students can drum and strum and sing.

 

But the organization has steadily gained a reputation for excellence in reinvigorating musical traditions ignored or left for dead in their home country. It has gone to Mexico looking for maestros. And it has grown some young maestros of its own, like Hugo Arroyo, one of the best players anywhere of the jarana, a ukulele-like instrument from Veracruz, and Lucina Rodriguez, a singer and expert in zapateado dancing.

 

The group's touring band is still the barest blip on the music scene. But it has attracted an array of friends and enthusiastic collaborators, who also include Los Tigres del Norte, the giants of norteño music, and Linda Ronstadt. In January, the group is performing in Glasgow with the Chieftains and Ry Cooder.

 

Ms. Ronstadt, who long ago left rock 'n' roll to explore her Mexican-American musical roots, lives in the Bay Area and has often dropped in at Los Cenzontles to sing. She said the organization gives young people the gift of an identity in an area bleak with poverty and rootlessness. "They know who they are when they come out of there," she said. " 'I play jarana.' 'I'm the one that's teaching those kids how to dance.' "

 

"They're making modern music, but it's very securely rooted in tradition."

 

It is telling that the musicians who have befriended Los Cenzontles are known as innovative traditionalists. To Mr. Rodriguez, to freeze folklore is to kill it. That is clear on all the songs on this album. Mr. Hidalgo plays ukulele on "Tecolote," a traditional Mexican dance song. On "Sueños" ("Dreams"), Ms. Rodriguez and Fabiola Trujillo trill like a doo-wop chorus, yet the bluesy song never loses its Mexican feel.

 

On "Voy Caminando" ("I Go Walking"), Taj Mahal plays banjo, an instrument unknown to Mexican music, and the rhythm is supplied by shoe dancers, their stomping beat summoning old Spain or Appalachia. The song tells of a young migrant who leaves home, his parents, their little plot of land, to find his future on the other side, America.

 

It's a new song, and an old story — the perfect fit for a country that has been renewed by immigration, but also perplexed and sometimes frightened by it. Some have declared the surge in immigrant Spanish-speakers as the end of America as we know it. But as "American Horizon" shows, it's just another new beginning.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

GOING CHENEY ON CLIMATE

BY THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

 

In 2006, Ron Suskind published "The One Percent Doctrine," a book about the U.S. war on terrorists after 9/11. The title was drawn from an assessment by then-Vice President Dick Cheney, who, in the face of concerns that a Pakistani scientist was offering nuclear-weapons expertise to Al Qaeda, reportedly declared: "If there's a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response." Cheney contended that the U.S. had to confront a very new type of threat: a "low-probability, high-impact event."

 

Soon after Suskind's book came out, the legal scholar Cass Sunstein, who then was at the University of Chicago, pointed out that Mr. Cheney seemed to be endorsing the same "precautionary principle" that also animated environmentalists. Sunstein wrote in his blog: "According to the Precautionary Principle, it is appropriate to respond aggressively to low-probability, high-impact events — such as climate change. Indeed, another vice president — Al Gore — can be understood to be arguing for a precautionary principle for climate change (though he believes that the chance of disaster is well over 1 percent)."

 

Of course, Mr. Cheney would never accept that analogy. Indeed, many of the same people who defend Mr. Cheney's One Percent Doctrine on nukes tell us not to worry at all about catastrophic global warming, where the odds are, in fact, a lot higher than 1 percent, if we stick to business as usual. That is unfortunate, because Cheney's instinct is precisely the right framework with which to think about the climate issue — and this whole "climategate" controversy as well.

 

"Climategate" was triggered on Nov. 17 when an unidentified person hacked into the e-mails and data files of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit, one of the leading climate science centers in the world — and then posted them on the Internet. In a few instances, they revealed some leading climatologists seemingly massaging data to show more global warming and excluding contradictory research.

 

Frankly, I found it very disappointing to read a leading climate scientist writing that he used a "trick" to "hide" a putative decline in temperatures or was keeping contradictory research from getting a proper hearing. Yes, the climate-denier community, funded by big oil, has published all sorts of bogus science for years — and the world never made a fuss. That, though, is no excuse for serious climatologists not adhering to the highest scientific standards at all times.

 

That said, be serious: The evidence that our planet, since the Industrial Revolution, has been on a broad warming trend outside the normal variation patterns — with periodic micro-cooling phases — has been documented by a variety of independent research centers.

 

As this paper just reported: "Despite recent fluctuations in global temperature year to year, which fueled claims of global cooling, a sustained global warming trend shows no signs of ending, according to new analysis by the World Meteorological Organization made public on Tuesday. The decade of the 2000s is very likely the warmest decade in the modern record."

 

This is not complicated. We know that our planet is enveloped in a blanket of greenhouse gases that keep the Earth at a comfortable temperature. As we pump more carbon-dioxide and other greenhouse gases into that blanket from cars, buildings, agriculture, forests and industry, more heat gets trapped.

 

What we don't know, because the climate system is so complex, is what other factors might over time compensate for that man-driven warming, or how rapidly temperatures might rise, melt more ice and raise sea levels. It's all a game of odds. We've never been here before. We just know two things: one, the CO2 we put into the atmosphere stays there for many years, so it is "irreversible" in real-time (barring some feat of geo-engineering); and two, that CO2 buildup has the potential to unleash "catastrophic" warming.

 

When I see a problem that has even a 1 percent probability of occurring and is "irreversible" and potentially "catastrophic," I buy insurance. That is what taking climate change seriously is all about.

 

If we prepare for climate change by building a clean-power economy, but climate change turns out to be a hoax, what would be the result? Well, during a transition period, we would have higher energy prices. But gradually we would be driving battery-powered electric cars and powering more and more of our homes and factories with wind, solar, nuclear and second-generation biofuels. We would be much less dependent on oil dictators who have drawn a bull's-eye on our backs; our trade deficit would improve; the dollar would strengthen; and the air we breathe would be cleaner. In short, as a country, we would be stronger, more innovative and more energy independent.

 

But if we don't prepare, and climate change turns out to be real, life on this planet could become a living hell. And that's why I'm for doing the Cheney-thing on climate — preparing for 1 percent.

 

Maureen Dowd is off today.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

WHAT MY AMENDMENT WON'T DO

BY BART STUPAK

 

Washington

OVER the past month there has been a great deal of discussion about the Stupak-Ellsworth-Pitts amendment in the House health care reform bill. Unfortunately, much of this discussion has been driven by misinformation about what our amendment does and does not do. I would like to set the record straight: Our amendment maintains current law, which says that there should be no federal financing for abortion.

 

Under our amendment, women who receive federal subsidies will be prohibited from using them to pay for insurance policies that cover abortion. The amendment does not prevent private plans from offering abortion services and it does not prohibit women from purchasing abortion coverage with their own money. The amendment specifically states that even those who receive federal subsidies can purchase a supplemental policy with private money to cover abortions.

 

Some opponents of the amendment have tried to argue that it would effectively end health insurance coverage of abortion in both the private and public sectors. This argument is nothing more than a scare tactic.

 

The language in our amendment is completely consistent with the Hyde Amendment, which in the 33 years since its passage has done nothing to inhibit private health insurers from offering abortion coverage. There is no reason to believe that a continuation of this policy would suddenly create undue hardship for the insurance industry — or for those who wish to use their private insurance to pay for an abortion.

 

For example, the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program provides health insurance through a variety of companies to more than eight million Americans — but it does not allow abortion coverage in any of its policies. Yet the same companies that offer these abortion-free plans to federal employees also offer plans with abortion coverage to non-federal employees. Given that insurance companies are able to offer separate plans with and without abortion coverage now, it seems likely that they would be able to continue to do so on the newly established health insurance exchange.

 

It is also disingenuous to argue (as some have) that it would be a hardship for insurance companies to provide plans with and without abortion coverage — when the health care bill as introduced in the House and Senate mandated exactly that. Under language suggested by Representative Lois Capps, Democrat of California, the new insurance exchange would be required to provide at least one plan that covers abortion and one plan that does not. If offering separate abortion-free plans in this way was acceptable under the Capps language (which has been endorsed by abortion-rights groups), then it should also be acceptable under the Stupak-Ellsworth-Pitts amendment.

 

While many accusations have been thrown around in recent months, the intent behind our amendment is simple and clear: to continue current law, which says that there should be no federal financing of abortions. Our intent was not to change, add or take anything away from federal law. This goal is consistent with the opinion of a majority of Americans. Recent CNN and Washington Post-ABC News polls found that 61 percent of Americans do not want taxpayer dollars to pay for abortions. And while the Senate voted down a similar amendment on Tuesday, I'm hopeful that the spirit of our legislation will make it into the final bill.

 

I encourage other members of Congress to listen to the American people and the majority of House members who have made it very clear: We do not want taxpayer dollars financing abortion. I also encourage them to work to pass health care reform legislation that provides access to quality, affordable health care for all Americans.

 

Bart Stupak is a Democratic representative from Michigan.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

CATCH OF THE FREEZER

BY ASTRID SCHOLZ, ULF SONESSON AND PETER TYEDMERS

 

GO local. Eat organic. Buy fresh. Those food mantras continue to make waves among environmentally conscious consumers. But — as is often the case in these climate-conscious times — if the motivation is to truly make our diets more earth-friendly, then perhaps we need a new mantra: Buy frozen.

 

Several years ago, the three of us — two ecological economists and one food system researcher — teamed up in an effort to understand how to develop sustainable food systems to feed a planet of nine billion by 2050. As the focus of our study, we chose salmon, an important source of protein around the world and a food that is available nearly anywhere at any time, regardless of season or local supply.

 

We examined the salmon's life cycle: how the fish are caught in the wild, what they're fed when farmed, how they're processed and transported and how they're consumed.

 

And what did we find in our research? When it comes to salmon, the questions of organic versus conventional and wild versus farmed matter less than whether the fish is frozen or fresh. In many cases, fresh salmon has about twice the environmental impact as frozen salmon.

 

The reason: Most salmon consumers live far from where the fish was caught or farmed, and the majority of salmon fillets they buy are fresh and shipped by air, which is the world's most carbon-intensive form of travel. Flying fillets from Alaska, British Columbia, Norway, Scotland or Chile so that 24 hours later they can be served "fresh" in New York adds an enormous climate burden, one that swamps the potential benefits of organic farming or sustainable fishing. (Disclosure: A nonprofit subsidiary of Ecotrust, the North Pacific Fisheries Trust, lends money to sustainable fisheries.)

 

Fresh fish is wonderful and healthful, and if it's driven a reasonable distance to market, then its relative environmental impact is low. Fortunately for conscientious diners, when fish is flash-frozen at sea, its taste and quality is practically indistinguishable from fresh. More important, it can be moved thousands of miles by container ship, rail or even truck at much lower environmental impact than when air freighted. If seafood-loving Japanese consumers, who get most of their fish via air shipments, were to switch to 75 percent frozen salmon, it would have a greater ecological benefit than all of Europe and North America eating only locally farmed or caught salmon.

 

Is the future full of fish sticks? No. But when it comes to eating seafood from halfway around the world, we need to get over our fetish for fresh. With the challenges facing the world's oceans mounting, buying frozen is a powerful choice that concerned eaters everywhere can make.

 

Astrid Scholz is the vice president of knowledge systems at Ecotrust in Portland, Ore. Ulf Sonesson is a researcher at the Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology. Peter Tyedmers is a professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

TEAR DOWN THAT HOUSE

BY PAUL O'NEILL

 

PRESIDENT OBAMA has put job creation on the front burner — he outlined his new plan in a speech yesterday, and at last week's jobs forum he said he was "open to every demonstrably good idea" to put Americans back to work.

 

Well, here's a proposition: Cities and towns across the country are the default owners of hundreds of thousands of abandoned and derelict single-family houses, apartment buildings and factories. These places are a blight on our communities.

 

The federal government should reimburse cities and towns who hire people from the unemployment rolls to tear down these structures, clean up the properties and, if there is no immediate buyer for them, to turn them into green spaces.

 

Not only will this create jobs, it will also provide lasting economic value as the properties get placed back on the tax rolls. And the program would give clear evidence that the taxpayers' (borrowed) dollars are producing a tangible public benefit. To encourage participation, Washington might consider giving cities and towns a 25 percent bonus — beyond reimbursing them for what they spend on reclamation. We could get such a program running by early next year, and it could run through, say, mid-2011.

 

How do we get started? The first step is to figure out how many abandoned properties are out there. Right now, we have no idea. A group like the nonprofit National League of Cities could gather information from cities and towns across the country. Once we have a new census of the derelict, we can estimate a cost, match jobs to those who do not have them and get to work.

 

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 I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

DEATH AND DISABILITY

 

We count the dead – 484 since October 5 according to one source – and the wounded are almost an afterthought. Forty-nine people died in the Lahore atrocity, and at the time of writing 180 are reported injured. The bombs in Moon Market were placed and detonated in such a way as to cause maximum casualties, and demonstrated a calculated callousness that is coming to characterise terrorist strategies. The dead from the Lahore bombing will all be buried by the time these words are read, and the 180 or more who survived now face the rest of their lives bearing whatever scars and injuries they received. Our health services are generally poor and are aimed at basic response at point of need. The cities – usually the site of the biggest bombings – are better equipped to cope with war-levels of casualties but beyond the immediate repairs they are not equipped to deal with the long-term after-effects of the battle raging in our midst. We are not equipped as a nation to adapt the homes of those physically disabled by bombs; we have no social safety net to provide for those who cannot work as a result of the injuries they sustain and no psychological support or counselling services to give comfort to those whose mental anguish tortures them. We are, in short, utterly unprepared for a new generation of physically handicapped and mentally traumatised people whose numbers grow by the day and whose needs will stretch far into the future.

It is both unwise and unfair to blame the government, either provincial or federal, for this state of affairs. Major health resources are planned far in advance and may take years to create – and although 'contingency' is always built-in, warfare and its effects generally are not. That said, there is no sign that the levels of live casualties in the civilian population is going to be falling, and now may be the time for a coordinated federal and provincial initiative aimed at downstreaming services for the innocent victims of warfare. Prosthetics and wheelchairs, plastic surgery, domestic adaptations, burns care units, vocational training for those rendered jobless by disability and the urgent national recruitment and training of psychiatrists and psychologists – all are needed in the here and now. Such things do not grow on trees and all cost money and there is no expectation that they are going to spring up overnight, but the living need help whereas the dead are beyond it in this world. Failing to prepare for the care of survivors compounds the wounds inflicted by terrorists. Counting the dead is sad enough, counting the survivors sadder.

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

HUNT FOR HAVENS

 

Washington is clearly eager to keep the focus on the war against terror in Pakistan, and not to be diverted from this target by other happenings in the country. US envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke has called on Islamabad to end Taliban safe havens in the country, and warned that a failure to go all out against the Afghan Taliban is affecting the effort against militancy in that country. We do not quite know what the government and military tactics are and whether any distinction continues to be made between Pakistani and Afghan Taliban. It must be hoped this is no longer the case. Once upon a time the Afghan Taliban were allies; the good and evil of that partnership has been debated at length. But there can be no doubt at all that today the militants are out to destroy the state of Pakistan and all that it represents. It has become impossible to distinguish between the different branches of militancy. All the forces that make it up have amalgamated; in some places the nexus is loose; in others tightly tied together. It is necessary to destroy all forms of militancy if this network is to be broken.

We still do not know why there is what appears to be a continued reluctance to go after the likes of Mullah Omar and his men. Similarly no effort has been made either to target militants based in southern Punjab and elsewhere. We must hope that they are tactical rather than ideological, and that at some point in time, an all-out effort will be made to wind up militancy in the country. All those responsible for decision-making must recognise that the thinking of the past has to be abandoned. The Taliban – and all the groups that have affiliated themselves with them – have grotesquely distorted and abused religion. The suicide bombing at the Parade Lane mosque exposes this reality. This is a force that has no morality. It must be destroyed before it destroys us.

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

THE LDA'S DRIVE

 

The demolition squad of the Lahore Development Authority, over the past few days, has been operating against illegally constructed high-rise plazas, moving in to demolish the top floors of several. A total of 18 such buildings are to be targeted; the issue dates back to a ruling two and a half years ago by the Supreme Court ordering the complete or partial razing of these buildings. Most are guilty of constructing additional floors in violation of rules; such have encroached illegally on to land which they do not own. People in the city have welcomed the drive. The unusual sight of glass, mortar and steel tumbling from the tops of tall buildings represents action against the powerful. The powerless who watch from below are those who were unlikely to have benefited from these plazas.

 

Common people, after all, do not walk into giant shopping malls or luxury medical centres. It is they too who most often face the brunt of administrative action. The street-side vendors regularly targeted during encroachment drives are an example of this. The action against the powerful owners of these buildings is therefore welcome. It may also act as a deterrent to others who believe they can flout the law with no action taken against them. But there is a need here for caution. The presence of large numbers of people below buildings that are being knocked down poses a significant hazard. Some effort must be made to prevent injury by moving away spectators who have been watching the LDA squads in action. And for the future it is important to ensure building laws are not violated and the mechanism of inspections intended to guard against this improved, so that we can check the rapid growth of illegally built high-rises which have changed the skyline of our cities.

 

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I. THE NEWS

CORRUPTION, RAMPANT AND GALORE

SHAMSHAD AHMAD

Today, the 9th December, is "World Anti-Corruption Day." In Pakistan, it is a strange coincidence, though ironical one, that the month of December this year also assumes corruption-related special significance in the context of the miscarried National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO). More than 8,000 beneficiaries of this politically-motivated "let bygones be bygones" defunct law now face reopening of their cases in courts of law.

Selective "amnesty" to public office-holders facing charges in different corruption and criminal cases between July 1986 and October 1999 in the name of "national reconciliation" and "political harmony" was blatantly discriminatory to the fundamental right of "equality of citizens before law and for protection under law" as guaranteed under Article 25, and any law inconsistent with fundamental rights conferred in the Constitution hall, to the extent of such inconsistency, be void as per Article 8 of the Constitution.

It is not important how many politicians or how many bureaucrats are included in the NRO beneficiaries. What is important is that they are all Pakistan citizens, some accused of criminal acts while others are alleged to have enriched themselves in varying degrees at the state's expense. Allowing them amnesty is a circumvention of judicial process and negation of political justice. Even if the applicability of NRO "amnesty" is extended to include "other persons" besides "public office-holders," the malafide nature of this insidious "crime-laundering law" would still remain questionable under the Constitution.

General Musharraf had engineered this deal only to secure for himself an otherwise inadmissible second term as president from the same assemblies that had elected him for his previous term. It was a clever move on his part to kill two birds with one stone. He managed to besmear the image of Pakistan's politicians by showing them as a corrupt "kleptocratic" class just as he had depicted them in his book "In the Line of Fire." He also neutralised the country's largest political party in his controversial re-election in violation of the Constitution.

There is already an air of excitement all over the country on the prospect of these high-profile cases of corruption and malfeasance coming up in the newly independent judiciary's courts. Everyone wants justice. It is in the public interest that those guilty of corruption are convicted and punished. It is also required by justice that all those who are found falsely implicated in politically-motivated cases are exonerated with honour without any delay. The propriety also demands that pending a decision on these cases, no "accused" should be holding a public office.

Unfortunately, our flawed judicial system has never inspired confidence among the people. A system that cannot deliver quick and fair justice can never remedy the situation. But now that we have an independent judiciary, expectations from the reinstated Chief Justice and his reconstituted superior courts are understandably very high. Everyone wants the NRO-related cases to be decided on merit and legality. It will be of utmost importance and urgency for the nation to have a final decision on NRO's legality as a constitutional issue to

close this sleazy chapter once for all.

Howsoever controversial and scandalous, the NRO has brought popular focus on high-scale corruption in Pakistan, whipping up public wrath on shameless exploitation of state resources by public officials, be they politicians or non-politicians. The people now know the names of "looters and plunderers" who have been prospering through abuse of power and fraudulent means of extortion, exploitation, patronage, influence-peddling, graft, jobbery and payoffs. In our politics, campaign contributions, kickbacks, defaulting bank-loans and soft money have been a common form of corruption.

Ironically, while the common man in our country is suffering the worst-ever hardship, the plunderers, profiteers, and the looters, murderer and the killers could not have a safer haven anywhere else in the world. No other country is familiar with the normatic practice of forgiving as a matter of rule the elite loan-defaulters and plunderers of the national exchequer. This also clearly puts us at odds with our international obligations under the UN Convention against Corruption which lays down legally binding international anti-corruption codes and measures.

The UN Convention against Corruption, to which Pakistan is a party, constitutes a major instrument of international cooperation in every aspect of the "global fight against corruption", including prevention, investigation, and prosecution of offenders. It obliges countries to "criminalise" not only the basic forms of corruption such as bribery and embezzlement of public funds but also trading in influence and the concealment and laundering of the proceeds of corruption."

Instead of providing shady covers to criminal acts, we should have been exploring how to bring our anti-corruption strategies in line with the global anti-corruption normative framework. UNODC's Global Program against Corruption should have been be used as a catalyst and a resource to help implement our own anti-corruption preventive and deterrent measures in both public and private sectors including in high-level financial and political circles.

Transparency International this year has placed us among the top most corrupt countries out of a total of 180 countries included in its survey for the year 2009. Our country is today the classic example of ingenuities for bribery, exchange of favours and illegitimate perquisites. "You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" is the common approach followed by public officials, be they parliamentarians or civil and military officials.

Distribution of residential plots to parliamentarians as well as civil and military officials and showering undue post-retirement facilities upon senior government servants in the form of state-provided domestic servants, utilities and chauffeur-driven vehicles are no less than gross misappropriation of state resources and assets. On top of it, hefty bonuses and lavish perks and privileges to state-owned banks chiefs are a huge suck dry load on national exchequer.

Corruption is not a natural calamity or disaster; it is simply the cold, calculated theft of opportunity from the men, women and children who are least able to protect themselves.

Although corruption has wide-ranging deleterious effects on society and governance, it's most deadly impact is always on the poor. It undermines democracy, hinders good governance and weakens democratic institutions. It hampers economic growth and sustainable development. When countries improve governance and reduce corruption, they reap a "development dividend."

But corruption cannot be measured in economic terms alone. Where corruption abounds, society at large suffers. It debilitates the judicial and political systems by weakening the rule of law and silencing the voice of the people. A corrupt judiciary cripples a society's ability to curb corruption. Corruption in elections and in legislative bodies reduces accountability and distorts representation in policymaking; corruption in the judiciary compromises the rule of law; and corruption in public administration results in the unfair provision of services.

In every respect, it is a déjà vu scenario in our country. The difficulties and sufferings of the poor and the underprivileged have only been aggravating. They are burdened with liabilities that normally belong to the state. Parents pay teachers illegal fees to have their children educated, patients pay extra to get proper health care, citizens give public officials "gifts" or money to speed up procedures, and drivers bribe police officers to avoid a fine. What many see as simply a way to get things done is, simply and in fact, nothing but a crime.

In Pakistan, corruption has been a source of serious concern from the very beginning of our independent statehood. In his presidential address to the Constituent Assembly on 11 August 1947, Quaid-i-Azam had warned us against what he called the "evils" of bribery, corruption, black-marketing, nepotism and jobbery. He wanted the government and the Assembly to take "adequate" measures to put these evils down with "an iron-hand."

We as a nation have not only failed to grapple with these challenges but are in fact living remorselessly with these problems as an "integral" part of our society. Governments and the Assemblies have been part of the problem rather than solution. Aversion to the rule of law is endemic. Poor governance is our national hallmark. There is constant erosion of law and order in the country. Crime and corruption are rampant and galore both in scope and scale. The only hope for fixing the fundamentals before it is too late now lies with the Supreme Court. Or should we wait for a Harry Potter to come and save us?

 

The writer is a former foreign secretary. Email: shamshad1941@yahoo .com

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

SPARE A THOUGHT, MR OBAMA

ZAFAR HILALY

President Obama has made his move. The surge in Afghanistan is the final throw of the dice. If it works American forces will leave with their heads erect. If does not, they do so with their tail between their legs. Both ways they leave?

Actually, no. A rump force of a few thousand US troops will probably remain well after 2012 sheltering with the Northern Alliance and ensuring that the Tajiks are propped up and the Taliban contained. Comprising Drones and Special Forces they will sally forth whenever an unusually tall man is observed in some valley of the Suleiman range. In essence this is the Biden strategy. It cuts costs and causalities. It enables the US to keep on eye on Al Qaeda and beat up on the Taliban every now and then for the foreseeable future.

Such a strategy threatens to splinter Afghanistan. Hopes that the Afghan National Army will prevent it happening are wishful thinking. An army consisting in the main of non Pushtuns officered by Tajiks is unacceptable to the Pushtun population. The concept of a "national" army in a largely tribal society where ethnic groups harbour significant antipathies is a non-starter. And, if the Afghan army were made to reflect the composition of the Afghan population, desertions would multiply and the penetration of the army by the Taliban which is already considerable would become pervasive.

Holbrooke has said that bringing about a fundamental re orientation of Pakistan's policy is going to be his foremost endeavour, specifically to persuade Pakistan to repair relations with India and cleanse the safe havens that the Afghan Taliban enjoy on our soil.

While Holbrooke's message was clear, what is not clear is Pakistan's likely response. Although what troubles Pakistan is clear enough. We rightly fear the conjoining not only ideologically but also operationally of the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban; the diversion of their destructive efforts towards Pakistani society which is a softer target than American forces; the possible rupture of the current fairly fragile public consensus in Pakistan to side with America against the Taliban; the fear that attacks by the Pakistan Army, in collusion with the unpopular Americans, may be viewed as attacks on Pustuns in general rather than only the Taliban; the fallout of such perceptions on Pakistan's unity and integrity, etc. All of which should also worry Holbrooke.

Perhaps the only politician that has constantly maintained that the fount of the region's problems is the American presence in Afghanistan has been Imran Khan. He said it to his credit much before many eminent American experts such as William Polk came around to this view; when the American public were maundering and mumbling and when our own had not even begun to reason. His fellow politician Qazi Hussein Ahmed may have preceded him but that was probably because the only way he could get popular is if the liberals gang up on him or he is persecuted. Imran, it seems, does not need to go to jail to become popular.

No country would benefit more from peace in Afghanistan than Pakistan no matter who sits in Kabul. Yet not once have we heard our leaders come out categorically in favour of a US withdrawal. Pakistan unfortunately is now viewed by many Afghans and Pakistanis alike as an American stooge. An American withdrawal would set many things right. For example, at a fraction of the cost that it takes to maintain US forces in Afghanistan many of Afghanistan's needs can be met. As one observer wrote:

"Afghanistan is a desperately poor, land locked and dry country with few resources. Its people have suffered through virtually continuous war for 30 years. Many are wounded or sick. Their normal passage through schools into jobs and secure lives have been derailed and disrupted. They are hurt and tired. They need help. It will be hard for them to pay for outside help. The world can help. Through the United Nations and a coalition of Afghanistan's neighbours money can be provided for reconstruction projects. Such ventures as the building of farm to market roads, the opening of clinics, a programme of disease prevention, subsidy for food grain crops, electrification, purification of water, disposal of waste, etc will be well received as unthreatening and beneficial assistance. What will it cost? Even at $5 billion a year over a period of ten years it will cost less than the $80 billion that the war is costing annually."

 

America's exit would unleash a dynamic of its own. Afghans would be compelled to talk to each other. They may choose to fight or do both at the same time. They may even finally be forced into the terrible hand of the Taliban who, for many, are psychopaths. But that is the concern of the Afghans. The world after all watched impassively for years while Idi Amin ate his friends for dinner, General Suharto butchered as many as half a million Indonesians simply because they were suspected of being communists and the Mujahideen raped, pillaged and murdered their compatriots while being serenaded for their victory over the Soviets.

Pakistan has nothing to fear from extremism, that is if it wishes to cleanse itself of this affliction. And if it does not it will pay the price. For how long can another country or society save another people from themselves?

America too has every right to protect herself but not in a manner that ends up destabilising the subcontinent, robbing the Afghan nation of determining their own future, of settling their own feuds by imposing on them a system that does not suit their genius and foisting on them corrupt puppets as leaders. For how long can a whole nation be held hostage for the sake of 100 criminals and be occupied and despoiled.

Obama's intentions are of no consequence. His actions are and these are proving devastating to life and society in Pakistan and Afghanistan. If America wants democracy and freedom for Afghanistan and wants it to take root in Pakistan it should argue and counsel and not shout, shoot and bomb.

 

The writer is a former ambassador. Email: charles123it@hotmail.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

FACTS VS FICTION

PART I RANDOM THOUGHTS

DR A Q KHAN

On Dec 10, 1984, at 10 a.m., to be exact, the director of security at KRL, Col A Rahman (who is no longer among us), Maj Gen Anis Ali Syed, both exemplary officers, and I had an important meeting with President Zia-ul-Haq. We first met Gen Mian Abdul Waheed, COS to the president and a friend of Gen Anis. We gave him a historic letter for the president, informing him that we had carried out a number of successful nuclear cold tests, of which the number of neutrons created and the time for their generation was of textbook data. I also stated on that occasion that KRL could carry out a hot test at a week's notice. When we were ushered into the president's office we were met by a beaming Gen Zia, who warmly shook hands with us and congratulated us and then proceeded to hug me.

He told us that he would refer back to us about a hot test. He called a meeting after a few days, in which he said that since the United States was providing substantial financial and military aid to Pakistan we should hold out on a hot test for a time when that test became essential. That time was forced upon us by India in May 1998. The letter in question has been confirmed by Gen K M Arif in his interview published in the book Deception, by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark. In the same book, Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan is also said to have mentioned it.

The time has come to clarify some issues. During this time many persons, although they are in a minority, have shamelessly tried to distort facts and give credit where it was not due. They have claimed that this work was not done at KRL. Many of these so-called experts with little knowledge of nuclear technology have nonetheless loudly proclaimed their unsubstantiated assertions.

In an attempt to put an end to this controversy, once and for all, I am reproducing here an authentic document, written by none other than the late Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan, who very closely supervised the nuclear programme for almost two decades. He knew me personally for almost 27 years. This letter was written to Mr Zahid Malik, a noted journalist, and nobody can doubt Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan's integrity, impartiality, honesty and objectivity.

"My dear Malik Sahib,

"Thank you for your letter asking me for my views on Dr A Q Khan's personality, traits of character, services and achievements 'shedding light,' by virtue of my close association with Pakistan's nuclear programme, on some of the hitherto untouched aspects of his life, as the man and the scientist.

"I have been, no doubt, associated in various official capacities with the work and doings of Dr A Q Khan, practically uninterruptedly, for over two decades. Early in our association I could perceive in him a person imbued with a noble mission in life, difficult to achieve but not impossible for a man with his attributes of character. Later, of course, I would witness how assiduously he applied himself to move with steadfast determination towards achievement of the goal that he had set for himself. It was, as I now recall, with great delight and admiration to listen in our regular monthly meetings to his report on the progress made and the distances travelled, and how ingeniously and with what skill he had been able to surmount the impediments and hurdles that had stood or come in his way.

"It is said that 'an institution is the lengthened shadow of one man and the length of the shadow is largely influenced by the appointments he makes, who would provide the innovative new concepts that allow the implementation of his or her programme.' Working practically on a green field, one of the first tasks which Dr A Q Khan addressed when he accepted the challenge of developing Pakistan's nuclear programme was to create an ambience of his own in which to strive for the attainment of his mission by establishing the Kahuta (Khan) Research Laboratories (KRL) and manning them by a team of loyal, trustworthy and dedicated engineers and scientists with professional excellence. By now, KRL has emerged as one of our most outstanding institutions, at par with some of the best in the world in the field of defence production and research. It comprises facilities for uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, for which it was originally planned to be set, incidentally established at a fraction of the cost being incurred at that time by other countries and institutions engaged in similar exercise, together with state-of-the-art workshops, amenities and equipment, some of them located in separate buildings of allied or affiliated institutions, for the indigenous production of missiles (including Ghauri) and a whole range of other battlefield weapons from antitank devices, multi-barrel guns, and night vision appliances, etc. This was the first major step towards attainment of self-reliance in defence technology and KRL, under the able leadership of Dr A Q Khan, has thereby made invaluable contributions to the defence and security of the country.

"To invest KRL with its present capabilities constituted a real challenge for its architect; technical problems confronted for the first time had to be resolved; manmade hurdles had to be circumvented and even natural hazards had to be conquered. In the course of enrichment, while the centrifuges were apparently functioning normally, a stage was reached when the natural uranium gas used in them refused to be enriched beyond a certain level. Its cause had to be investigated and overcome. Often bans were imposed at critical times on export of critical items, validly and openly contracted, even paid for, which then had to be fabricated locally through experimentation, trial and error or the long-drawn-out, tedious process of reverse engineering. Again, on at least three occasions, the elaborate array of hundreds of extremely delicately balanced, fast revolving centrifuges, painstakingly erected, were knocked flat down by severe jolts of unexpected earthquakes (a comparatively rare phenomenon in the Kahuta region). These had to be reconstructed and recreated at a great cost of labour and time. In these circumstances any other person not endowed with the indomitable will and tenacity of Dr A Q Khan would have thrown in the sponge. These events, however, simply spurred him to work with still greater vigour and determination, with the result that in a reasonable short time not only would the colossal damage be restored, but in the last mishap even the design parameters improved by providing a more stable anchor to the machines and making them thereby practically immune to future seismic shocks. Today KRL and its allied outfits stand as a shining monument to the foresight, and patriotic vision and hard work of its architect. It also vividly illustrates that, given the opportunity, a modicum of resources, some encouragement and, above all, a wise, dedicated and selfless leadership, dreams can indeed be turned into reality.

"The nation owes a debt of gratitude to its nuclear scientists and engineers for transforming an essentially technologically backward country into the seventh nuclear power in the world. In bringing about this radical change the most vital and crucial contribution, in my judgement, was made by Dr A Q Khan and his research organisations. Using weapons-grade enriched uranium, a product of KRL, as 'fuel,' they had developed by the second half of 1984, a nuclear explosive device which could be assembled and detonated at short notice."

(To be continued)

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

LIBERALS LOSING THE BATTLE?

SHAHID KARDAR

National unity and the federation are at stake and the ground is being lost rapidly by moderates to Islamic revivalists in the country. This is partly owing to American policies in the region and the Middle East and the general perception that while US commitment to Pakistan continues to be weak, Islamabad is still keen to do its bidding even when public opinion has finally decisively shifted against the Taliban.

Liberals and moderates, despite the turning of the tide, are becoming a minority in the country. A recent IRI poll which revealed that 86 per cent of the respondents felt that religion should have a role in politics serves as a grim reminder of the enormity of the task that lies ahead, especially given the poor quality of governance and the derision with which the political leadership is viewed. Earlier, moderate and civilian governments failed to provide almost half of the population with access to decent basic education, health and skill-enhancement services and good governance that would have ensured that the poor and lower-middle classes have a stake in the system.

In the revolution unfolding before our eyes in the shape of a knowledge-based road to growth and prosperity, Pakistani society is horribly divided by the type of education that different segments can access. Instead of education systems being a unifying factor in terms of providing equal opportunities for social mobility to all classes, the products of the government-run institutions are not equipped to participate on largely equal terms in economic growth.

 

The elite has not ensured a fairer distribution of economic growth. The multitude of unemployed poor or those without steady jobs and the less affluent segments of the population with little protection from the excesses of the law-enforcement agencies and their surrogates do not have a stake in the patently unfair order and state structure. They have been left to fend for themselves by the rich whose accelerated progress in recent years has sharpened the disparities in incomes and wealth. The country stands horribly polarized between the haves and the have-nots and between modernists and the traditionalists with fundamentalist views.

Not surprisingly there is resentment and hatred against the pillars of the State and the iniquitous tax systems and structures which, while exempting from taxation the main sources of income of the vast majority of our political leadership, result in a tax to GDP ratio of less than 10 per cent, reinforcing and widening existing disparities of incomes and wealth.

The growth of madressahs can be largely explained by these outcomes. These madressahs provide food, clothing and shelter and cater to the spiritual needs of those enrolled. Moreover, politically ambitious graduates from public sector universities but from humbler social backgrounds would be welcomed by the right-wing parties whose members and leadership come from similar socio-economic classes and aspire for roles that would not be open to them in the mainstream political parties. Thus, until and unless there is an alternative that is caring and provides justice and rule of law and ensures merit so that ordinary people become stakeholders in the system we will never be able to achieve the kind of social harmony required for nation building.

Moreover, the thousands graduating from these institutions neither have the educational or technical skills demanded by commercial enterprises. They are largely unemployable and hence obvious candidates for recruitment by terrorist organizations. It is these Taliban that reflect the "demographic dividend" of our young population. So, one can understand why the suicide bomber has no compunction destroying a system in which he has no stake.

Reduction in the role and size of the army and the Federal government and greater administrative and financial autonomy to the provinces (along with powers to exercise greater control over their own resources) is required urgently. This needs to be complemented by decent, publicly-funded basic education and health and a system that rewards meritocracy in which individuals prosper on the basis of their talent. Such a structure should overtime create the environment in which all nationalities and classes will start having a stake in the unity of Pakistan, thereby facilitating the establishment of a country that can begin to claim a place as a key player in the comity of nations. With the whittling away of the writ of the state and serious doubts about the integrity and competence of the leadership things have come to such a pass that no government alone can tackle these problems effectively.

 

There is only a small window of opportunity that is open, and that too for a short while, to halt and reverse the process of this shift to the right. Democracy must provide better governance and must deliver decent basic services by giving the poorer segments of the population first right over the state's resources, so that they can become the first line of defence against the forces keen to derail the participatory form of government.

The writer is a former finance minister of Punjab. Email: kardar@systemsltd.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

GAME, SET AND MATCH TO?

ANJUM NIAZ

The writer is a freelance journalist with over twenty years of experience in national and international reporting

It's premature to declare the champions in the fight against corruption. Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have teamed up to face their formidable opponents, the intelligence agencies and the judiciary. Who will carry the Grand Slam that we don't know.

Notice the timing of Wajid Shamsul Hasan swiping valuable documents from Switzerland and the sudden re-appearance of Shahid Aziz, the man fired in July of 2007 by Musharraf from chairmanship of National Accountability Bureau (NAB). He was sacked because he had the dope on some including Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Humayum Akhtar. Now you understand why the Sharif brothers have opted to partner Zardari in his battle against the establishment.

While our amateur Houdini High Commissioner Wajid Shamsul Hasan escaped with 12 cartons containing details of the Swiss case against the first couple, the 'master' Houdini Shahid Aziz kept clones of those 12 cartons, hopefully lying safe somewhere in the custody of our intelligence agencies in Islamabad. In other words, copies of those Swiss court documents must have been photocopied and brought back from Geneva to Islamabad by Hassan Waseem Afzal, Shahid Aziz's deputy. Musharraf pulled out Afzal just when he had the cats (AZ &MNS) in the bag. By the way Harry Houdini was an American magician whose specialty was escapes. He could slip out of ropes, chains and handcuffs while locked in trunks and milk cans or submerged underwater.

The current NAB Chairman Navid Ahsan knows that the proof against Zardari and Nawaz Sharif is secure. But he will never unfold the leaves of graft because he has already once sold his soul to the devil (Musharraf). He fears he may get fired by the present president were he to expose him.

A lot of water has flown under the bridge since the exit of NAB supremos Aziz and Afzal. Musharraf is gone, Zardari has returned and Nawaz Sharif is president-in-waiting and more recently AZ's partner in fighting corruption charges. They appear very comfortable in their skins.

Remember the flirtation between Musharraf and Benazir bungeed by international babble-athons conducted in Dubai, London and Washington in the summer of 2007? She asked the General to wind up the 'wicked old corruption cell' at the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and get rid of the 'big bad wolf' wanting to eat up little Red Riding Hood. The big bad wolf a.k.a known as Hassan Waseem Afzal was thus shunted off to weave deadly plots against the first couple and the Sharif brothers with his new boss Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi.

Afzal had doggedly busted the international network and cracked the code that contained details of the alleged wealth of the first couple. It had cost the taxpayer millions of dollars to follow the money trail. As we well know, after President Farooq Leghari sacked Benazir in 1996 on corruption charges, her successor Nawaz Sharif gave the Ehtesab Bureau a one-point agenda: to nail the couple. And the man tasked to scale the Himalayan heights and track down the couple was handsome Hassan Waseem Afzal. When Nawaz Sharif got the boot from General Musharraf, Ehtesab Bureau got a new name (NAB) but continued with the services of Afzal, now handed a two-point agenda: go get Benazir as well as Nawaz Sharif!

While Gen (r) Shahid Aziz is the oracle who has appeared like a bolt out of the blue, Hassan Waseen Afzal, probably an officer on special duty (OSD), is just a phone call away and can zing back into his old act should the powers that be desire.

It was in the spring of 2006, when vice chairman of NAB, Hassan Waseem Afzal held a press conference in Islamabad and gave out copies of NAB's investigations nailing Benazir Bhutto. According to him, Petroline FZC (Free Zone Corporation) was registered in Sharjah, UAE on December 10, 2000. "Its owners were /are Benazir Bhutto with 34 per cent shares, Hassan Ali Jafferi 33 per cent and Rehman Malik 33 per cent shares. HAJ (Hassan Ali Jafferi) is the nephew of BB and RM (Rehman Malik) is a fugitive from justice," Afzal announced to the national media which splashed it as headline news.

Then came another zinger from Afzal: "NAB unearths BB's illicit connection with UN-controlled oil for food programme and her connections with Saddam regime in Iraq." The first paragraph in the damning document ended with the sentence "Corruption, manipulation, kickbacks and commissions appear to be common between the former prime minister of Pakistan and the oil for food program."

Citing the Oct 27, 2005 report of the 'Independent Inquiry Committee appointed by the UN' the NAB alleged "Petroline FZC, an offshore company of the former prime minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto paid $ two million as kickbacks to the defunct Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussain in violation of UN sanctions and violating all norms of international law." Its findings are based on the 623 pages of the UN report in which Petroline FZC paid kickbacks to an Italian MP called Paolo Folloni; a Frenchman named Michel Grimard, a Lebanese national named To'ma; Romanian Labour Party and Yugoslavian Left wing Party. "In total Petrozine FZC purchased Iraqi oil worth $150million. The surcharge paid to Iraqi regime amounts to $ two million, which was paid into the bank of Jordan. Petroline FZC was financed by an American oil trading company called Bayoil, which is facing prosecution in the US for its dealing in the oil-for-food-programme."

Afzal's boast to the reporters was that Benazir Bhutto, Rehman Malik and Hassan Ali Jaffery would soon be charged and sentenced. "The Pakistan government will prosecute these three Pakistanis under UN guidelines" he told the press.

At this famous press conference, Afzal bared a second company called Tempo Global Gains FZC owned by Bhutto and her three children. "This company appears to be the ultimate destination of all money siphoned off by Benazir and her aides," he said, adding that NAB would ask the UAE government to freeze these companies' accounts.

Afzal succeeded in convincing the Spanish judicial authorities in the state of Valencia, Spain to freeze bank accounts belonging to the two offshore companies, Petroline and Tempo Global Gains FZC that were operating in Spain. They also confiscated the Bhutto villa in Valencia.

NAB's clumsy website that had once proudly posted proof of Benazir's corruption became a wet rag after Aziz and Afzal were sent packing. In a press clipping dated May 31, 2007, it defended the withdrawing of corruption cases against the first couple by saying that it had run out of money to pursue the Spanish case: "Since the case is primarily a Spanish prosecution, therefore NAB could be allowed to quit as Civil Party as GOP Exchequer is not going to benefit from the outcome of the case, and further NAB shall be available for any help for the Spanish Prosecution in future, which could be attained on a simple request of International Mutual Legal Assistance."

"NAB's wantonness," I wrote in a column just before Benazir returned to Pakistan, "fits perfectly the description of a hooker: with a sly wink; long gaze; flip of the hair, lip purse, furrowed brow and finger tap, the lady is a tramp! With its moral compass directed towards the Army House, NAB today has lost all its credibility."

Will the embryo called 'Accountability' being crosshatched by Zardari and the Sharifs live or perish?

Email: aniaz@fas.harvard.edu & www. anjumniaz.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

BALOCHISTAN PACKAGE

TAYYAB SIDDIQUI

The much-awaited and long overdue official response and plan of action for the Baloch question was finally announced before parliament on November 24 at a special joint session. The prime minister extended a "hand of reconciliation and dialogue with our estranged brothers from Balochistan." The package contained 39 recommendations to address the various steps suggested in the package and propose constitutional changes to incorporate necessary amendments. These recommendations cover constitutional, political, administrative and economic issues "to heal the wounds of the Baloch."

The package, described by Zardari as a "grand leap forward" has been rejected by the majority of Baloch nationalist leaders and hence, the implementation of the package has become uncertain. The Baloch extreme reaction to the proposal reflects a deep sense of disappointment and frustration at the manner in which Islamabad has responded. The government, regrettably, has not reacted to any crisis situation with the speed and alacrity that the situation warrants, particularly when these proposals are a carbon-copy of those made in the 2005 Mushahid Report.

While it would be unfair to question the sincerity of the government in advancing these recommendations, it certainly reflects the ineptness of the government and insensitivity to the urgency of the burning question. The fundamental weakness that the package suffers from is that it has been presented without involving Baloch leaders and other stakeholders. It is not surprising that the package has been rejected by Baloch leaders, representing all political affiliations. It was imperative that the proposal should have been discussed with the Baloch leaders and other stakeholders taken on board to avoid the likely stalemate.

Mr Gilani on assumption of the office of prime minister had presented a 100-day plan of action and promised that the concurrent list would be abolished within one year and that the Baloch demands would be met within 100 days. Nothing of that kind has happened. Indeed, our 1973 Constitution provides for institutions and approaches aiming at stability and harmony among the provinces. The constitutional bodies to resolve any dispute or conflict provides the mechanism of the Council of Common Interest and the National Finance Commission.

Simply put the Baloch question relates to the right of ownership of resources and financial autonomy without any constraints. The Baloch want a peaceful Balochistan, ruled, governed and controlled by them. The other issues are peripheral and directly related to the major ones indicated above.

The package is an honest effort, but lack of trust in Islamabad has made Baloch leaders wary of the establishment and the federal government and hence more imaginative and realistic options need to be explored to meet the Baloch aspirations. The time that has elapsed due to political indifference and administrative inertia has radicalised the Baloch and what could have been achieved a couple of years back may not be within our reach today.

We need to look at the broader picture and make a realistic appreciation of the crisis that we are faced with. The easiest solution would be to take guidance from the constitution, abolish the concurrent list and the emergency powers.

To create the right ambiance for meaningful negotiations, measures such as a general amnesty and cessations of military operations should be implemented forthwith. For composition of committees and commissions, referred to in the package, a definite timeline be indicated. Time is of the essence. Any further delay would only complicate and compromise national unity. Had Mujibur Rehman's six-points for East Pakistan's autonomy been given consideration and an honest national debate in the context of unified Pakistan was held, we might have been spared Pakistan's break-up. Let history not repeat itself.

The writer is a former ambassador. Email: m.tayyab.siddiqui @gmail.com

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

A GOOD GESTURE OF PRESIDENT ZARDARI

 

IT was a welcome development that President Asif Ali Zardari visited the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) on Monday to enquire after the health of the people injured in Friday's terrorist attack on a mosque in Rawalpindi. On this occasion, he declared that we as a nation would never bow down to cowardly acts of terrorism, adding that the armed forces were fully prepared to combat the menace.

The mosque blast was one of the most tragic incidents in that it claimed lives of several serving and retired Army officers and Jawans as well as their children and relatives. The President being Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, his visit to the injured people would surely boost the morale of personnel of the armed forces. Unfortunately, for the last few months, the movement of the President was restricted to the fortified Aiwan-e-Sadr and he avoided public appearance. He was so much security conscious and perhaps rightly so that, like Altaf Bhai, he has started addressing telephonically the events held even in Pakistan. This sent depressing messages all across and there was criticism from different quarters that a democratically elected President must have closer contacts with the people. No doubt, there are genuine and potential threats to the top leadership of the country because of their decision to launch a decisive operation against extremists and terrorists. But it doesn't mean that they should confine themselves within the premises of their bunkered offices and residences, as this is one of the objectives of the terrorists to sever contact between the rulers and the ruled. At least, we should have the capability to make necessary security arrangements for the Head of the State to visit important places on vital occasions. If Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, some Cabinet Ministers and Chief of the Army Staff can attend funeral of the martyrs then there is no reason for the President not to do so. Similarly, it is worth mentioning that despite heightened anti-American sentiments, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited shrines and educational institutions during her recent trip to Pakistan. We are, therefore, confident that the security agencies can make necessary security arrangements for the movements of the President outside Aiwan-e-Sadr. By visiting CMH, President Zardari has re-established contact with the people but this should not prove to be the last one.

 

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

TERRORISM: THINK OF OTHER OPTIONS AS WELL

 

THE incessant acts of terrorism in the NWFP, Balochistan and Punjab claiming lives of innocent citizens including women and children are of course a source of serious concern yet the militants have not been successful in their designs to demoralize the nation. Monday's blasts in Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta after the dastardly attack on Friday in Rawalpindi indicate that the terrorists have a wider network of operatives and sympathisers and would continue to inflict damages with more ferocity in the days and weeks ahead as pressures build on them at their safe havens in FATA and Malakand.

The three attacks in the Provincial Capitals on a single day were part of their strategy to send the message to the Government that it was not easy to eliminate them as they have presence all over the country rather than the general belief that they are concentrated in bordering areas with Afghanistan. According to a recent survey, killings in acts of terrorism went gone up by four times in 2009 as compared to the preceding year which means that the menace is on the increase instead of scaling down. The security measures taken by police and other law enforcement agencies have no doubt led to the arrest of hundreds of suspects yet we believe the Government must explore other options as well to stabilize the situation. The move by the Interior Minister seeking support of Ulema against acts of terror is just one step in the right direction. We are moving on a single track that is suicidal and affecting the psyche of the people particularly the residents of Peshawar, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Quetta where most of the terror acts have taken place. Urgent and innovative approaches are thus of utmost necessity to bring an end to the dastardly acts. One possible way out could be to reach to the disgruntled elements, persuade them to give up the path of playing in the hands of enemies and give them one time clemency to join the mainstream of national life. At the same time intelligence network needs to be widened and Mohallah level vigilance committees formed with the help of senior citizens to keep a close watch in their neighbourhood for terrorists sleeper cells and to deny local help to the bloodthirsty barbarians having no regard for the dangers they pose to the country and sufferings of the masses.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

RUPEE BECOMES SKINNIER

 

MONDAY was indeed a sad day for the Pak rupee as the green back took sudden jump against the local currency crossing the so-called psychological barrier of Rs 84 while demand remained high despite increasing value of dollar. The dollar closed at Rs 84.21 on the day and the currency experts apprehended that the trend might continue because of the reported decision of the State Bank to shift the entire load of oil import bill on private sector.

The free fall of the rupee is adding to the miseries of the common man and putting extra burden on the country but strangely enough the planners and decision makers are least bothered to take corrective measures. There is something seriously wrong with our policies, as dollar is shedding its value vis-à-vis other currencies but it is gaining significantly against the rupee. No doubt, there are extraordinary circumstances in the country, which might be contributing to the phenomenal rise in the value of dollar and depreciation of the rupee, but the problem would compound if we watched the situation as silent spectators. There might have been failures during Musharraf-Shaukat Aziz era in other areas but no one can dispute the fact that the currency remained stable throughout their tenure despite similar circumstances and apprehensions. This was because former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who had necessary background and expertise, evolved prudent policies and ensure their implementation and that is why the rupee-dollar parity seldom crossed fifty-eight. Unfortunately, the rupee shed about fifty per cent of its value during tenure of the present Government but no corrective measures are still in sight. We would urge the financial managers of the Government to rise to the occasion and take necessary steps to stabilize the rupee.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

WAR AGAINST PAKISTAN

LT COL ZAHEERUL HASSAN (R)

Desperate and defeated militants started hitting innocents and peaceful men, women and children of Pakistan. On December 7, 2009 four blasts rocked Peshawar, Lahore and Quetta. In the morning at 10 am a suicide bomber came on a rickshaw, killed at least ten people in Peshawar when he blew himself up near the courthouse located on Jail Road. Then, in the noon explosive laden taxi blasted near government officer residence and caused injuries to the individuals. In Moon Market, Lahore at about 0845 pm 44 individuals killed and 100 injured in blasts. One explosion was in front of a bank and other one was in front of a police station. It is feared the toll may rise further as the site of the market was on fire. The fire engulfed a building and shops. In today's blasts almost 52 individuals killed and more than 130 inured. It is also notable here that more than 400 people have been killed during a string of attacks mounted by foreign sponsored terrorists and so called Taliban. In recent weeks these militants have targeted Muslims offering their Jumma prayers, children, women, Pakistani troops, girls' schools and vital installations.

The attacks in Lahore just came after the Interior Minister Rehman Malik statement in which he pointed out that evidence of Indian involvement in Pakistan has been handed over to the foreign ministry in Islamabad.

According to the media after meeting with clerics at the CM House Malik stated that the evidence of Indian involvement in Pakistan will be shared with New Delhi during composite dialogue between the two countries. He categorically mentioned that arms and ammunitions smuggled into the country from Afghanistan were being used in terrorist activities in Pakistan. He has also said that he was in talks with US and Afghan authorities in this connection and a mechanism is being put in place to stop the arms smuggling. America and NATO decided to increase their forces in Afghanistan. Washington has acknowledged that Pakistan is facing main blunt of war against terror and success is not possible without her. In fact, US has never taken practical steps of stopping cross border terrorism and infiltration between Pakistan and Afghanistan. She also never tried to impede Indian consulates to discontinue with spreading terrorism in Pakistan.

Rana Sunnaullah Punjab Law Minister and NWFP Mian Iftikhar Hussain, Minister for information, very strongly condemned the brutality of militants against unarmed general public and elements of security forces. Both the leaders stated that Indian notorious intelligence agency "Research and Analysis Wing" and Israel are involved in fomenting terrorism in Pakistan. They also stressed that religious leaders should not support and back anti state hired elements.

 

The method of operandi used in the recent blasts very clearly depicts that terrorists are very well trained and expert in using the latest devices. It alsp proves that guerilla warfare has been launched against Pakistan and Islam by the foreign agencies. Unfortunate part of this ongoing militancy is that local uneducated Muslims are being abducted, brainwashed on the name of Jihad revenge, for launching against own troops and the public. Therefore, it is the need of the time that terrorism and militancy should be condemned openly by all segments of society irrespective of our religious believes and sects. I would also like to mention here that what so ever the cause may be, the action against general public and own motherland can't be justified by shading away the responsibility on each other. It's the war against Pakistan and has to be fight collectively. The nation is supporting their brave and determined soldiers in on going war against terror. The army is defending the country's borders and religious scholars have to guard country's ideology in true letter and spirit. The political leadership including religious leaders should come out and stand up with the nation and security forces to fight against the war. Qazi Hussain Ahemed, Mullana Munawar Hussain, head of Jammat-e-Islami , Mullan Fazilur Rehman , Imran khan, Nawaz Shirf ,President Zardari and Prime Minister Gillani should go to the public to boost the national moral in war against Pakistan. I would also like to suggest our media to work for the integrity of Pakistan instead creating political anarchy in the country. We must know that creating political instability and disintegration of Pakistan are the main objectives of foreign agenda. According to the media reports many Islamic scholars of the country declared suicidal attacks un-Islamic. On December 6, 2009 famous Pakistani scholar Tahir ul-Qadri and 24 others religious scholars revealed that suicide attacks are not allowed in Islam, They stressed that the slaughter of human beings in any religion or country, and terrorism in all its manifestations, are totally in contradiction with the teachings of Islam. Thus, terrorism on the name of religion cannot be supported and need to be strongly condemned. We must salute our forces, police and intelligence agencies those are scarifying their lives for us. On December 7, 2009 President Zardari along with Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani visited CMH Rawalpindi and enquired about the health of injured person of Parade Line. At this occasion president stated that nation will defeat terrorism and stood shoulders to shoulders with the security forces. On December 6, 2009 General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani reaffirmed that the Army would defend, protect and preserve Pakistan at all costs. He said this while offering condolences to the bereaved families. He expressed that the nation, including the Army, stands united in sharing their grief. He praised their exemplary strength of faith at this moment of trial.

Concluding, I must say that every individual should come out to fight war against Pakistan and Islam. Each one of us has to condemn the actions of brutality against innocent women, children, men, elements of security forces. Washington should force Afghanistan for fencing of border. India be asked to close her consulates and resolve burning Kashmir issue. New Delhi should be forced to refrain from supporting Baloch and FATA elements. Media should press religious leaders to censure and criticise suicidal bombers.

 

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

SAARC: ACHIEVEMENTS AND LIMITATIONS

DR M ASLAM KHAN

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established when its Charter was formally adopted on December 8, 1985 by its seven founding member states: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. SAARC provides a platform to the people of South Asia to work together in a spirit of friendship, trust and understanding and cooperation among the member countries and reinforce links between the countries of the region, and promote mutual collaboration in the economic, social, cultural technical and scientific fields.

SAARC performance in the last 24 years has been mixed. On the economic front, the South Asian countries have achieved impressive growth rate above 7.0 percent on the annual average in the last two decades. The regional economies have best weathered the impact of severe global economic recession inflicted by a massive financial crisis have since 2007. In 2007, Afghanistan and Bhutan witnessed growth in double digit. The other regional economies, except Nepal, have growth above 6.0 percent. The regional economies, however, are facing slumping demand for their exports, significant reduction in foreign investment particularly foreign direct investment. The decline in exports has weakened the region's current account position.

Despite the fact that the region constitutes about one-fifth of humanity and vast resources, it is confronted with the formidable challenges posed by poverty, unemployment, low levels of production and pressure of population. These constraints have severely hampered the efforts to achieve the SAARC objectives of promoting welfare of the people of the South Asia and improving quality of life through accelerated economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region. It has not fully geared up to provide material benefit to more than 1.5 billion inhabitants. Most of the quality of life indicators are weak. On the human development index scale it is amongst the low profile quality of life. Despite concerted efforts, South Asia remains a backward region where the largest number of illiterates live, where the infant and maternal mortality rate is highest in the world and the number of poor is more than 550 million - more than one third of the total population. The region represents almost 23 percent of the world population, but share only 2.5 percent of world gross national income (1,339 billion US$ in 2007). Average per capita income at US$ 880 is only 11 percent of the world average of US$ 7,995. In spite of SAARC emphasis on trade as one of the major priority areas of economic cooperation, total external trade of the region amounts 1.6 percent of the world trade, 1.4 percent of the world exports and 1.8 percent of world imports. Intra-regional exchanges represent only 4 percent regional trade - 5.3 percent (exports) and 4.8 percent (imports). The regions receives only nominal amount of private capital inflows. The regional share in foreign direct investment (FDI) is limited to less than 1.5 percent of world FDI flows. While the other regional trade blocs got momentum as an attempt to operate in the global market with increased economic strength, the SAARC member states are still struggling to move effectively from SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) to South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). SAARC countries as a bloc remained least integrated with the world and deprived themselves from the changes occurred on the global economic scene. Efforts to strengthen and push forward the SAARC process, enhance the level of bilateral trade and strengthen trade and commercial relations between member countries were grossly short of expectations. The operationalization of SAPTA was the first step towards liberalisation and creation of SAARC trade bloc. But, since 1993 to 2009, not much progress has been achieved to strengthen regional position in the world trade.

The South Asia has also achieved limited success in technological advancement at a time when the world is witnessing rapid changes in the technological conditions, high sophistication of development and huge capital mobility in countries with developed infrastructure, skilled manpower, security and political stability. The region has not developed required technological knowledge and skill-base to become competitive in the global market. Because of low knowledge and skill-base, the productivity per worker is low and cost of doing business in the region is very high. South Asian countries are more exposed to new challenges and great uncertainty in the global economy. The global economic crisis has affected developed and developing countries alike. Fundamental structural imbalances have resulted in economic inequality and retarded growth. The shape of globalisation, WTO regime and structural conditionalties by IMF and other development finance institutions are requiring efforts for removing fundamental structural and macroeconomic imbalances which have perpetuated increase in poverty and economic inequity in most of the regional economies. The SAARC countries need to respond to the emerging situation in a holistic manner by forging a common strategy by exploring options to safeguard regional interest through joint venture, and technology transfer among its member countries. Cohesive and economically integrated South Asia would be better positioned to negotiate globally for advantageous terms of trade with WTO regime and development institutions. The acceleration of regional economic activities would help to enrich the lives of the people of the region and resolve the problem of poverty, weak social indicators and barriers of global trade policies to mutual comparative advantages.

In recent years, there has been a considerable recognition that only friendly relations with neighbouring countries can help to deescalate tensions and conflicts in the region and thus provide opportunities for promoting the SAARC Charter objectives. Recent efforts suggest brighter prospects of fostering cooperation in the region. Collective efforts of member states within the framework of SAARC Social Charter and SAARC Development Goals (SDGs) and SAARC Poverty Fund (SPF) would help to reduce poverty and bridge social gap and vulnerability and effectively deal with the phenomenon of globalisation, promotion of trade, socio-economic development, and to eradicate the blight of poverty from South Asia.

In conclusion, the South Asian countries have so far not received the full brunt of the global crisis but plummeting global output, trade and finances will affect the regional economies in coming days. A well coordinated regional approach is required to minimize the impact of slowing down global economy after years of remarkable growth. South Asia has the potential to accelerate economic growth, strengthen intra-regional trade and contribute to global solutions to the crises. Nevertheless, the success rate of SAARC as an organization is limited and the region since its existence of more than two decades has not fully utilized its full potential. SAARC as an important organization needs to show a lot of progress on the implementation of policies and programs including enhancing political, economic and cultural ties among its member states. The organization can build region as one of the prosperious region of the world promoting peace and caring for destitute and vulnerable segments of the region. The organization must move forward in strengthening friendship, trust and understanding and cooperation among the member countries and reinforce links between the countries of the region, and promote mutual collaboration and assistance in the economic, social, cultural technical and scientific fields. Progress on these aspects is important for an organization dealing with more than one-fifth of humanity.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

A RAY OF HOPE IN BALOCHISTAN

MUNIR AHMAD

The recent unrest in Balochistan conveys a horrifying picture of the province especially the target killing in the provincial capital Quetta. The narrow mindedness of a few is maligning the entire Baloch population which does not want bloodshed on its soil. Baloch are the oldest nation living in Balochistan, since centuries, some of them had their origin in the Arab world. The British gazette defined them as most loyal and trustworthy people. The famous poet Maulana Zafar Ali Khan defined the word Baloch as "loyalty". They have valuable traditions in their culture. The first man who presented the guard of honor and saluted Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah in 1947 was a Baloch Soldier.

Jamalis are one of the most literate people among the Baloch population. Mir Jaffer Khan Jamali, a great leader of Pakistan movement was the dearest friend of Quaid-i-Azam. When Jinnah visited Jacobabad in the tribal belt (on the Sindh-Balochistan border) for the first time on October 16, 1938 pro-Gandhi and pro-Congress people boycotted him. He could not even get a place to stay. The local administration, controlled by the Congress, saw to it that even the waiting room of the local railway station was locked up. On hearing this, Jafar Khan rushed to Jacobabad, rallied his Jamali supporters and held a reception in honor of Quaid at the local Eidgah. In June, 1943 Jafar Khan Jamali organized a visit for the Quaid to Quetta. Quaid-i-Azam described the Jamali tribe as the Muslim League's "gateway to Balochistan". Jaffer Jamali declared Fatima Jinnah as his sister and fulfilled the role of a true brother. In her time of crisis when General Ayub Khan created problems for Miss Fatima Jinnah, Mir Jaffer Jamali rendered his all out support to her. When he died Fatima Jinnah was grieved over his death and remarked "today I lost my second brother."

When Zafarullah Khan Jamali became the Prime Minster of Pakistan, the year 2003 was declared by him as the year of Fatima Jinnah. Several events were organized across the country in her remembrance. The early exit of Zafarullah Khan Jamali from the highest office of the Chief Executive in 2004 left a vacuum for the people of Balochistan. They felt weak and alone in the Federal Government. But shortly this vacuum was filled by an outstanding man Jan Muhammad Jamali as the deputy Chairman Senate. He had been serving the people in Balochistan since 1983 in different capacities and also had been the Chief Minister Balochistan in 1998-1999. Presently he rose to the office of Deputy Chairman Senate due to his selfless services to the people. His presence at this prestigious office is a symbol of relief and comfort for the people of Balochistan who long felt deprived and alienated.

There is hardly a significant representative of Balochistan in the Federal Capital except Jan Muhammad Jamali. When people from Balochistan reach Islamabad they find great difficulties and obstructions in their work. For them Jan Jamali has kept his door open. People at high offices are seen to be avoiding asking others for someone's works, but Mr. Jamali, possesses the quality of helping others with his utmost effort. The weakest and the poorest make their way to Mr Jamali's office and he wears no frowns on his forehead for them. Ever since Balochistan has produced two prominent leaders for their country, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and Jan Muhammad Jamali. They both have the peculiar place in the hearts of the people due to the disinterested services for the people. He has also proposed the formation of one-man national commission of Justice (r) Bhagwandas to take up the issue Balochistan's Rs 800 billion outstanding arrears (royalty and Gas Development Surcharge). This is a just demand which would be acceptable to all the stakeholders as Justice Bhagwandas is an undisputed figure.

He also proposed certain confidence-building measures, such as punitive actions in Balochistan must be halted and the missing persons be produced, reviewing the share of Balochistan with reference to the Gwadar Port, Saindak and other big projects. He urged President Asif Ali Zardari to reach out to Brahamdagh Bugti, Khan of Kalat and Sanaullah Zehri, taking them into confidence on his fairness in resolution of Balochistan's problems. If Pakistan could talk to India, and Palestinians could interact with Israel, why not Pakistani rulers should hold a sustained dialogue with the nationalist leaders to resolve their genuine issues. It is high time that the Federal Government shall make use of efforts of such people in settling Balochistan's problem which is erupting fire at present and continue to engulf the other provinces, if not immediately attended.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

NEW US AFGHAN STRATEGY & NATO

F Z KHAN

President Obama has announced new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy and approved sending 30,000 additional troops to root out al-Qaeda and Taliban. In his letter delivered to Pakistan president Zardari, America has threatened Pakistan to do more or the US will do all the needful to track down al-Qaeda and Taliban in Pakistan's territories. These troops will add to the already deployed NATO and ISAF troops reaching the total number near about 125,000. He also assured Democrats that troops' withdrawal would start by July 2011 which the experts say the exit strategy could backfire.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, their allies and their patrons in Pakistan and the Middle East, as well as America's partners, may think that Obama's pledge to begin withdrawing troops by July 2011 signals a lack of US staying power and dilutes any incentives for insurgents to switch sides or negotiate a political accord. Instead, the extremists may persevere in their fight, thinking they can run out the clock and further erode support for the war in the United States as congressional elections loom in 2010, while pumping up their own ranks. Some members of the US-led international force already have announced their intention to leave, saying it's a big mistake and Obama's announcement that a US withdrawal would begin in 19 months just tells the Taliban and everyone else how long they need to last.

The deadline also could discourages Karzai from acting on US demands to crack down on high-level corruption, implement political reforms and rid the government of warlords who oversaw the rigging of his recent re-election in return for shares in the new government. Experts say US does not have a reliable partner in Kabul, and the Afghans would now say that they don't have a responsible partner in Washington. According to Bruce Riedel of The Brookings Institution, this is a bold gamble in terms of domestic politics. President's own party is increasingly divided. The liberal base is tired of war. The party is haunted by the ghost of Vietnam. Senator Russ Feingold also does not support Obama's decision to send additional troops to fight a war in Afghanistan that is no longer in our national security interests. Obviously now Washington's NATO allies will face pressure to commit more troops and money to supplement President Obama's troop increase in Afghanistan at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers started on Thursday. Though the European leaders were quick to offer verbal support to new Afghanistan strategy, but they have been in less of a hurry to commit new forces to an uncertain military campaign that is increasingly unpopular at home because of rising casualties. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he expected US allies to provide at least 5,000 extra troops and possibly a few thousand more — short of the 10,000 troops and trainers Pentagon officials had sought. NATO officials also said about 1,500 of the 5,000 would be election reinforcements sent in earlier this year, and the Netherlands and Canada plan to withdraw combat forces of 2,100 and 2,800 in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

Referring to Dutch and Canadian withdrawal plans, the US official said that this was the time to think about how they could do better, and perhaps did more, not the time to figure out how they could do less. The Dutch and Canadians could be persuaded to keep troops, perhaps as trainers for Afghan forces. Britain, which has the second largest troop contingent in the war zone, plans to boost its commitment by 500 to 10,000, and NATO officials said others that have announced plans to send more troops were Georgia (900), Poland (600) and Slovakia (250). Germany has signaled a willingness to do more police training but said it could not commit more troops before a strategy review early next year. France said it did not plan to send more troops but President Nicolas Sarkozy responded to Obama's speech by saying it would look at helping to train Afghan forces. Italy said it would send more troops, but declined to give numbers or a timetable, while Denmark said it would discuss the matter internally after the NATO meeting and the Czech Republic said it would consider sending 100 soldiers. Portugal is keeping its pledge made earlier this year to send 150 troops from its "rapid deployment" force to join 100 military trainers in Afghanistan, Defense Minister Augusto Santos Silva said. The reinforcements set out next month. Albania will send its first 35 combat troops, as well as 50 trainers and other military personnel to join 250 already in Afghanistan. NATO arrived in Afghanistan in accordance with a UN mandate comprising tasks related to assisting the Afghan government in the fight against terrorism, corruption and training of local armed forces. On the one hand, ISAF provides the military efforts, although it widely contributes to the overall institution building process and reconstruction efforts. On the other hand, the Senior Civilian Representative is responsible for promoting NATO's political-military commitment to Afghanistan in liaison with all relevant actors. Finally, as of September 2006, NATO launched a massive cooperation program with Afghanistan focusing on defense reforms, defense institution-building and security sector reform.

The most serious of all challenges faced by NATO in Afghanistan is certainly the security situation. Although ISAF has played a crucial role in eradicating some militias and helping the Afghan government seize control of a larger portion of its territory, there are hardcore remnants of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Unfortunately, although the notion of suicide attacks was unknown in the country until 2001, a large number of such attacks have taken place since 2005. Recent figures show that the number of suicide bombings increased seven fold between 2005 and 2006. It remains to be seen whether the events unfolding in future endorse the US decision of relying on military solution rather than opening doors for political resolution of the imbroglio.

 

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

TALKING HIMSELF TO DEATH..!

ROBERT CLEMENTS

Despite the police shouting themselves hoarse against speaking on the cell phone and driving I still see many doing the same, proving a danger to others and themselves: Like this young man driving the latest fancy car who had an arm on the steering wheel and the other hugging his cell phone in an intimate embrace. "Did I wake you up?" he asked, speaking seductively into the mouthpiece.

"No," replied the husky voice at the other end, "you just got me out of the bath!""Out of the bath!" exclaimed the young man, not seeing the cyclist in front."What was that noise?" asked the seductive voice at the other end."What noise?" asked the young man breathlessly holding the cell phone even closer, and not noticing the man and the cycle falling behind.

"You know you shouldn't phone and drive.""What are cell phones for?" asked the young man, "if not for taking the boredom out of driving!" The signal in front, suddenly turned to red, but the young man with his phone pressed to his ear and his mind pressed elsewhere did not notice the change and continued driving through. "What are you wearing?"

He asked, holding his breath in anticipation and literally looking into the phone. He did not see the startled scooterist veering dangerously to avoid him. All he felt was a thud, which he mistook for the sound of his own heart beat as he repeated the question "What are you wearing?"

"Come and see," sighed the husky voice at the other end lustily. Yes I'm coming," whispered the young man accelerating, "and I'm not going to put this phone off till I reach you!" The other drivers tried desperately to pull their vehicles quickly out of the way of the speeding car. "Hello, hello," said the young man, suddenly realising his phone had gone off. "Damn," he shouted, "damn," and drove faster.

An old lady with a walking stick did not see the approaching car. She was flung up high and the crowd gathered round her knew she would never need a stick again as the young man in the car only shouted deeper into his cell phone. "Hello, hello, damn, damn, damn……….." A schoolboy, whose father had taught him diligently how to cross at zebra crossings only, jumped out of the way in time, but decided not to obey the signals again. Meanwhile, the young man driving the latest fancy car, one arm on the steering wheel and the other hugging his cell phone, bent down to press redial so he could talk to his girlfriend again. He did not see the ten ton truck switching lanes in front.

"Hello!" said the husky voice at the other end of the line, "Hello," she shouted as she heard the piercing scream and sound of tearing metal but the young man one mangled arm on the smashed steering wheel, the other still clutching his cell phone, lay still, never to hear her again…!

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

NEW TRAFFIC RULES

 

In a welcome move, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) has finally gone for strict enforcement of the automated traffic signal and introduction of lane system for vehicles on three city roads. The step enforced yesterday after a week-long campaign seeks to ease intolerable traffic congestion in the city. Strict enforcement cannot be effective without punitive measures and this time the authorities say they really mean business. We, however, feel that a week's campaign is too little to make the drivers of vehicles and commuters aware of the new system of traffic movement on the designated lanes. As for the automated traffic signal, drivers will now only be required to unlearn all the rules contradictory to the recognised ones such as not to follow the manual directions that made a mockery of the red, green and yellow traffic signal lights.

The primary choice of three city streets is an indication that the authorities are still doing some experiment with this new system looking forward to its result. A positive result will most likely give them the right impetus to introduce the same on all city roads and perhaps in other cities as well. It is exactly because of this, it would have been desirable to introduce the system after people, drivers in particular, were thoroughly familiarised with it. Also, people cannot be blamed for not taking such moves seriously because the roads have been subjected to too many experiments off and on without the follow-up needed. People must be given to understand that things will be different this time.

No question that the new system has its merit and it has to be exploited with diligence and a sense of purpose. Much depends, however, on how the man in the uniform performs on the street. His integrity and sincerity have to be at a standard level. We are happy to learn that a committee comprising owners and transport workers was formed, in addition to the 12 teams – each headed by a deputy commissioner of police, to monitor the performance of the traffic constables and others at the ground level. If this is done sensibly and seriously, we may be optimistic of a perceptible improvement in the vehicular movement on city roads.

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

LOAN TO WOMEN

 

The Bangladesh Bank has created a special fund for women entrepreneurs operating in the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector. Unfortunately only a small part of the fund has been utilised so far. This has led the Bank to think about "repackaging" the loan. One of the innovative proposals under consideration is "social collateral". Under this system a group of entrepreneurs are expected to take responsibility for the return of the loan – much like what micro-entrepreneurs or agriculturists do.

Evidently, the women's specialised fund is routed through nationalised commercial banks (NCBs) creating the "collateral problem".  If the money was disbursed through banks having successful track records, this problem would not have been there in the first place. Besides, the central bank is not only a banker to NCBs but also to all other banks.  The point is to develop an efficient financial sector.

It is good to see that finally the central bank has woken up to the problem of being flooded with exorbitant money. Now the point is to utilise it in the best interest of the economy.   A low-interest regime is a major step forward as most studies have shown that the rate of return on investment is 7 to 8 per cent; so any loan that carries a higher interest rate is bound to trip. But after that, comes the identification of institutions that have the capacity to handle the job. It is by no means an easy job and the failure at outreach for the low-interest women's loan should once again bring the truth home. 

 

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

BOB'S BANTER

OSAMA'S HIDING PLACE..!

 

 "…Osama in Pak…er…Afghanistan…"TOI Dec 8th

 "Aha! In the caves of Pakistan..er..Afghanistan you look for me? But it isn't there I hide. I hide in the minds of men!

Why should I seek the dark, loneliness of stone and rock when your soft inviting mind invites me in?

In Obama's country I hide in the white man's mind. I come out whenever he sees not his president but a black man in his Whitehouse, I snigger as I hear him whisper, "Bloody nigger!"

And in the country that supposedly harbours my caveman existence I live in the minds of religious zealots, whose tempers rise in fury when they behold church, temple or Buddhist statue!

Men, who with holy book in hand, but intolerance in their mind, wipe out others who bend their knees differently when they worship God.

I laugh to see those missiles fly into yonder cave when me who you search for exists inside yourselves.
Call me not Osama, call me prejudice, call me hate, call me fanatic, fundamentalist. I was not born yesterday, I was birthed when man was born!

You could not eliminate me when you killed your Hitler.      

Nor kill me when you defeated the slant eyed Jap. You threw atomic bomb to end a bloody war and allowed a hundred me's be born anew. You rained those missiles down on Afghan soil and sent your men into Saddam's Iraq, but with every death a hundred more of me sprang to life.

I live in the minds of man!

Two planes I used that brought yon towers down.

But with no planes, or knives you my brethren continue what I so meticulously planned.

You Sri Lankans who look at your poor beaten Tamils with vengeance, you are bigger Osama's than even me. Yet no one dares bomb or smoke you out, because you live not fugitives but free in the castles of your minds!

And you in nearby Indian state, who rant and rave in Parliament today about ancient mosque you cruelly brought down; how easy to say you bear no remorse for evil done; tearing apart harmonious land with devilish, depraved, diabolic design.

Aha! I live on in the minds of men. No bomb can kill me. No missile smoke me out! Kill your Osama's first before you look for this bearded one.

In the mountain caves you search:

But it is not there I hide.

I live in the minds of men.

Dare you smoke your Osamas out?

 

 bobsbanter@gmail.com

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

TOO BIG TO LIVE

JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ

 

A global controversy is raging: what new regulations are required to restore confidence in the financial system and ensure that a new crisis does not erupt a few years down the line. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has called for restrictions on the kinds of activities in which mega-banks can engage. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown begs to differ: after all, the first British bank to fall at a cost of some $50 billion was Northern Rock, which was engaged in the plain vanilla business of mortgage lending.

The implication of Brown's observation is that such restrictions will not ensure that there is not another crisis; but King is right to demand that banks that are too big to fail be reined in. In the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, large banks have been responsible for the bulk of the cost to taxpayers. America has let 106 smaller banks go bankrupt this year alone. It's the mega-banks that present the mega-costs.

The crisis is a result of at least eight distinct but related failures:

Too-big-to-fail banks have perverse incentives; if they gamble and win, they walk off with the proceeds; if they fail, taxpayers pick up the tab.

Financial institutions are too intertwined to fail; the part of AIG that cost America's taxpayers $180 billion was relatively small.

Even if individual banks are small, if they engage in correlated behaviour using the same models their behaviour can fuel systemic risk;

Incentive structures within banks are designed to encourage short-sighted behaviour and excessive risk taking.

In assessing their own risk, banks do not look at the externalities that they (or their failure) would impose on others, which is one reason why we need regulation in the first place.

Banks have done a bad job in risk assessment. The models they were using were deeply flawed.
Investors, seemingly even less informed about the risk of excessive leverage than banks, put enormous pressure on banks to undertake excessive risk.

Regulators, who are supposed to understand all of this and prevent actions that spur systemic risk, failed. They, too, used flawed models and had flawed incentives; too many didn't understand the role of regulation; and too many became captured by those they were supposed to be regulating.

If we could have more confidence in our regulators and supervisors, we might be more relaxed about all the other problems. But regulators and supervisors are fallible, which is why we need to attack the problems from all sides.

There are, of course, costs to regulations, but the costs of having an inadequate regulatory structure are enormous. We have not done nearly enough to prevent another crisis, and the benefits of strengthened regulation far outweigh any increased costs.

King is right: banks that are too big to fail are too big to exist. If they continue to exist, they must exist in what is sometimes called a utility model, meaning that they are heavily regulated.

In particular, allowing such banks to continue engaging in proprietary trading distorts financial markets. Why should they be allowed to gamble, with taxpayers underwriting their losses? What are the synergies? Can they possibly outweigh the costs? Some large banks are now involved in a sufficiently large share of trading (either on their own account or on behalf of their customers) that they have, in effect, gained the same unfair advantage that any inside trader has.

This may generate higher profits for them, but at the expense of others. It is a skewed playing field and one increasingly skewed against smaller players who wouldn't prefer a credit default swap underwritten by the US or UK government. No wonder that too-big-to-fail institutions dominate this market.

The one thing nowadays that economists agree upon is that incentives matter. Bank officers got rewarded for higher returns whether they were a result of improved performance (doing better than the market) or just more risk taking (higher leverage).

Either they were swindling shareholders and investors, or they didn't understand the nature of risk and reward. Possibly both are true. Either way, it's discouraging.

Given the lack of understanding of risk by investors, and deficiencies in corporate governance, bankers had an incentive not to design good incentive structures. It is vital to correct such flaws at the level of the organization and of the individual manager.

That means breaking up too-important-to fail (or too-complex-to-fix) institutions. Where this is not possible, it means stringently restricting what they can do and imposing higher taxes and capital-adequacy requirements, thereby helping level the playing field. The devil, of course, is in the details and big banks will do what they can to ensure that whatever charges are imposed are sufficiently small that they do not outweigh the advantages gained from being underwritten by taxpayers.

Even if we fix bank incentive structures perfectly which is not in the cards the banks will still represent a big risk. The bigger the bank, and the more risk-taking in which big banks are allowed to engage, the greater the threat to our economies and our societies.

These are not matters of black and white: the more we limit the size, the more relaxed we can be about these and other details of regulation. That is why King, Paul Volcker, the United Nations Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System, and a host of others are right about the need to curb the big banks.

What is required is a multi-prong approach, including special taxes, increased capital requirements, tighter supervision, and limits on size and risk-taking activities.

Such an approach won't prevent another crisis, but it would make one less likely and less costly if it did occur.

 

(The writer is Professor at Columbia University nd the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics.)

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

LOOKING TO COPENHAGEN FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE

TARIK HASAN SHAHRIAR

 

Global warming and climate change have emerged as the greatest threat facing mankind today. The temperature of atmosphere increases due to emissions of green house gases which are mainly responsible for the seawater rise. Developed and developing countries are more or less anxious in this regard. Low lands and the coastal belts of the world are now at a very vulnerable condition due to fast increase of seawater level. Maldives and Tuvalu, the two states of different continents, are now individually facing hyper intimidation for rapid increasing of global warming. If the emissions of green house gases continue at the existing rate, the two countries will totally be submerged under water within a few decades due to rapid melting of ice cap and glaciers of polar region. That is the prime cause of increasing sea water level.

There is a ray of hope, since people of different stakeholders of the world are more conscious to save the earth. The United Nations (UN), in particular, has come forward with a visionary commitment. UN had started its environmental activities in June, 1972 through the Stolkhom declaration of human-environmental development with a view to organizing and making aware all the member states of United Nations under universal principles and objectives. After Stolkhom declaration, the United Nations has taken concerted efforts along with its member states to organize international seminar, meeting and summit in order to create social movement around the world on environmental development, conservation of global climate, facing the challenges of global warming, protection from desertification. Lastly, a summit on global climate change and global warming was held in New York on 22nd September, 2009 along with the chief of the states and governments of 100 countries under the initiative  of United Nations. The major aim and objectives of this summit were to determine the role and responsibilities of chief of the governments and states to attain the desired goal in upcoming Copenhagen summit on global climate change. The diplomatic importance and influences would have been imposed upon developed countries to create pro-people atmosphere to decrease the emissions of green house gases, which are mainly responsible for unusual gross natural disorders.The low land and delta formed states would have faced alarming situation for their existence according to the report of noted environmentalists which states the water of sea level would increase up to two metres within a decade.

Recently, Sidr and Aila hit out the southern part of Bangladesh. These are symbolic instances of environmental degradation. After Aila and Sidr, environmentally and geologically, the southern part of Bangladesh has been highly affected, and the human habitation might be unfit due to ecological and environmental disorders. Meanwhile, the natural fertility of cultivable land of this region has already been lost due to intrusion of saline water and damage of natural food chain. Bangladesh is now very near to face gross environmental catastrophe. The major portion of low land and specially Aila and Sidor affected areas are still under saline water which is primly responsible for loss of natural fertility of land, and the sea saline water is not releasing as expected by experts. Therefore, crops production will certainly be hampered and finally be lost. If the deterioration of the scenario continues, more than 20 million people have to migrate by 2020. This is an alarming situation for the people of Bangladesh. How would the government rehabilitate this huge population and what are the past and recent causes of getting into climatic disorders of Bangladesh? China, India and Brazil are now at the topmost position in terms of economic, regional and international politics as well as relations of developing countries. They are rapidly advancing to meet all other requirements of being developed countries but not responsible enough for emissions of green house gases like USA, UK and some others countries of European Union. But already they emit green house gases into environment.   India is not much lagging behind. The rapid industrialization of India is mainly responsible for their gradual increasing of emissions of green house gases. That means the more you are industrialized the more you emit the carbon gases. So a new sophisticated technology has to be installed in each individual industry to stop or decrease the emissions. Carbon taxes should be imposed according to emitting ratio of green house gases all over the world.
The administration of Clinton government of the then USA had given consent to ratify Kyoto protocol but Senate of USA could not accept the terms and conditions of Kyoto protocol at all. Moreover, USA termed the developing countries responsible for emitting green house gases over the globe. A negative measure was adopted in the era of Bush government of USA in emitting carbon gases and global warming. But now President Barack Obama has declared his visionary framework along with the entire developing and developed states to face the critical challenges of global warming and climate change. USA is significantly responsible among all the states of the world for emitting green house gases and 25 per cent of entire emitting carbon gases of the world has been produced within USA. So the involvement of USA is a pre-requisite to decrease the emissions of green house gases.

The success of Copenhagen summit would be more or less dependent upon the positive role and responsibility of USA and other developed countries. The USA ought to come forward with universal pro-people attitude to take the leadership in order to save the world from human and environmental catastrophe. The member states of European Union have still people-friendly attitude universally to attain the desired goals in upcoming Copenhagen summit on critical climate issues. But if USA does not come forward to play its due role in this aspect, European Union will also play conservative role in upcoming Copenhagen convention on global warming as well as climate change.

A pre-summit meeting of Copenhagen was held in Bangkok from 28 September to 9 October with the members of 180 countries in order to make Copenhagen convention successful and meaningful. An anti-universal diplomatic role and correspondences were found among the developed countries during the pre-summit meeting of Copenhagen in Bangkok on global climatic issues where entire member states of European Union had negative attitudes for post era of Kyoto protocol of 2012. USA and European Union have virtually expressed their policy in terms of emitting green house gases.

Now they have reached a consensus of ratifying a new protocol with liberal terms and conditions imposing all liabilities and responsibilities upon developing and less developed countries. China and India do not enclose any target of prolonged mission and vision to reduce the green house gases due to liberal terms and references of Kyoto protocol. But they have only discussed deliberately on their individual program promises of their government during the pre-summit meeting of Copenhagen in Bangkok. They have highlighted their required adaptive assistance due to global warming in Bangkok. Climate change is entire result of unequal development and consumption and it is enhancing inequity across the world. The impacts are also unequally distributed, where the poor in developing countries are becoming the worst victims.

Apparently Copenhagen summit is the last chance of preventing global catastrophe. Could this chance be taken by the developing countries? The developed world has adapted to follow slowly proceedings and principles regarding carbon emission and global warming over the globe. The president of Maldives, Mohammad Nashid has given a bold speech about Copenhagen summit. To sustain the world for long-standing period he urged upon the poor and weak countries to be united to raise their demands in Copenhagen summit boldly through their allied written statements. If they fail to be united in proceedings in Copenhagen summit their deadly consequences will be nearer. He protested symbolically for the inactivity of the developed countries by doing a cabinet meeting under seawater. At least 100 countries, including Maldives and Bangladesh, will be under serious threat due to global warming. President of Kiribati has truly said, "Now we have to press the moral concern of developed states." 

 

(The writer, a freelancer, can be reached at  tarik1418@gmail.com)

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

SWISS VOTE AGAINST THE MINARET

ABIDULLAH GHAZI

 

When you think of Switzerland what comes to your mind? Of course I am referring to the time before the Minaret Vote. Let me tell you what comes to my mind: natural Alpine beauty, precision watches, secured bank accounts, international peace and harmony, pluralism in practice and much more-all of which is positive.
After learning about the November 29, 2009 vote, which sanctioned the banning of minarets attached to Swiss mosques, and reading about the borderline Islamophobe campaign launched by the Swiss Peoples Party (SVP) and the Federal Democratic Union (EDU), our image of Switzerland becomes less than ideal. For many of us it has changed to one of duplicity, bigotry and intolerance. How 57% of Swiss voters could approve a referendum banning the construction of minarets in their country, which has rich heritage of tolerance? Perhaps, it is a new turn in European politics.

In reality, minarets aren't the issue. A minaret is not integral part of a mosque nor is it required by Islamic law; it is merely a symbol, which distinguishes a mosque from other places of worship. The issue is much deeper, as we shall see. Switzerland is now the home of 400,000 Muslims, who have, for the most part, lived in this historically multi-ethnic state peacefully and neighbourly. They have some two hundred mosques in the country, of which only four have minarets. Although there were several more pending applications before the authorities to build minarets; such requests were more often than not rejected on technical grounds and the Muslim community stoically accepted this.

A national controversy, however, surfaced some four years ago when members of a Turkish association in the town of Wangen bei Olten applied to erect six-foot-tall minaret on its premises. The permit was initially denied by local canton administrators, but with a successful appeal to the federal Supreme Court, permission was granted for the construction of this religious symbol. To the dismay of local canton and other adversaries, the minaret was erected in July of 2009. Since 2007 the EDU party attempted at both the cantons and the federal level to obtain legislation to ban the construction of any minaret on Swiss soil. This endeavour failed to pass in individual cantons, but it succeeded, surprisingly, in a federal referendum.

EDU mobilized several groups for this campaign, in launching what was, for all practical purposes, a hate campaign drenched in Islamophobia. Anti-minaret posters and advertisement illustrated minarets as black rockets flanked by burqa-clad females. In doing this, the minaret is manipulated to become a symbol of militant fanaticism and the burqa the implementation of Shari'ah in Switzerland. The result of this campaign has been the vandalisation of several mosques and marked division in its Swiss society. Yet this vote in Switzerland is not really an issue about the position of Islamic architecture in the West, but rather it is about the future of Muslims existing as a minority in Western Europe, where in most countries they are the largest minority. And their numbers increase yearly by birth, immigration and conversion. It is the fear that, as Dr.
Tariq Ramadan informs us, expresses itself in various forms throughout Europe: "In France it is the headscarf or burqa; in Germany mosques; in Britain violence; in Denmark Cartoons; homosexuality in Netherlands - and so on."

A number of demographic predictions are frightening to the indigenous populations of Western Europe and as a result, anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant groups now thrive on profiling and stereotyping Muslims. There is a constant criticism of Muslims and Islam, mostly focusing on a litany of predictable criticisms: terrorism, violence, "Jihadism," "Dhimmitude", status of women, rejection of and homosexuals and honour-killings, etc. Even if these criticism have their validity (and some of them and certain places certainly do), Muslims are a widely divergent group, numbering over 1.4 billion worldwide, living in unrelated, unconnected geographic regions of the world, speaking many languages, and practicing widely different customs.

How is it, then, that crime of anyone person or group becomes the fault of the entire Muslim world? If ethno-religious labels are to be put on each and every criminal in Western societies, we'll certainly find Muslims outnumbered by Christians, Jews or other ethnic and religious groups, with a wide margin. However, assigning blame will not resolve the issues that separate us as human beings or the misinformation that divides us. We have to develop a new paradigm for co-existence and mutual trust.

While bigotry against Islam and Muslims is on the rise in Europe and America, it should be heartening to know that major efforts for dialogue, conciliation, and understanding are taking place across world among the mainstream individuals and groups, and in this Muslims are active partners. In America under the presidency of President Obama, Muslims are overcoming the effects of the eight years of the previous administrations' uncertainties and veiled threats. Perhaps Europe also needs clear-headed leadership to confidently address these issues.The Swiss vote has a symbolic significance which goes beyond the number of votes or its immediate impact. It has brought, first and foremost, an embarrassment to the proud Swiss people and many groups in the country who oppose this aberration of their tradition of broadmindedness. All religious denominations, Catholics, Protestant, Jewish, and all decent people have vigorously opposed this move and condemned it. United Nations, The Vatican, The European Union, among so many others, have openly condemned the vote and asked for a reversal of its decision as soon as possible.The broader issues that this incident and other such incidents in Europe raise are much more important than this unconstructive vote; it is about securing a future for Muslim minority in Western Europe. Unfortunately, Europe has a very bleak history of ethnic and religious intolerance: from the myriad of religious wars fought on its soil, to two World Wars culminating in Holocaust, to the recent genocide in Bosnia. One would be hard-pressed to find comparable bloodshed in Muslim history.

For those of us Muslims who have chosen to live in the West, who are taking full advantage of its wealth, resources, freedoms and opportunities, have to adjust to the social, olitical and economic realities of our new homelands and take initiatives that would produce positive results. There is no dearth of people of goodwill who would be our willing partners in our struggle to safeguard our rights and be part of building a civic society. It is important that Muslims in Western societies, or living as a minority anywhere, hold dialogues, discussion and symposia on interfaith, inter-cultural and inter-community relations addressing following concerns:

1. Find out and positively respond to the anxieties and concerns of the majority population vis-a-vis Muslim communities;

2. Develop plans and strategies to address misconceptions and misunderstandings;

3. Actively participate and contribute in various social, political, and economic endeavours;

4. Muslims must cultivate media (as well create their own media), and supply right information and Muslim perspective to everyone; and5. Shed our own prejudices as Muslims; make an effort to appreciate the values of the society we live in, that attracted us and become indispensable part of its public square. All these efforts need short and long term planning. It needs the establishment of institutions that far surpass mosques and weekend schools. In most of Muslims communities in the West, this process has not yet begun. We must expedite this process and support all such efforts.

(The writer is Executive Director of IQRA' International Educational Foundation)

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

PUBLIC HEALTH TO RECEIVE PRIORITY

COPENHAGEN SUMMIT

DHIRAJ KUMAR NATH

 

The historic UN Climate Change Conference started on 7th December, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark with much enthusiasm and expectation of the people living in the third world countries to derive benefits and overcome crisis that resulted from climate change. Almost all 192 countries with their experts and programme managers and media personalities shall deliberate up to 18th of December to develop plan of actions and make a declaration keeping in view the Kyoto protocol and future imperatives, public health in particular. At least 70 heads of government and states shall join the conference.

During the opening session, Chairman of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Kumar Panchauri, observed that global community has a moral responsibility to do all it can to limit the impacts of climate change. According to him, "If the global temperature increases between 2.0 and 2.4 degrees Celsius, global emissions must peak no later than 2015." He further added, "The evidence is now overwhelming that the world would greatly benefit from early actions delay will only lead to progressively higher economic and human costs."

This is the reason for which a few countries like India China, Brazil and South Africa have already rejected Copenhagen plan to reduce 50% greenhouse gas emission by 2050. The demand is to ensure the reduction of carbon by 2020. Many specialists feel this conference might deviate from some issues agreed in Kyoto Protocol, 1997. It might be mentioned that USA has not ratified as yet the Kyoto Protocol to be expired in 2012.
Climate change is one of the most complex challenges of the century affecting all countries irrespective of political or economical identities.  With the warming of the planet and changes in climatic patterns, densely populated countries like ours with long coastal belt are most vulnerable. The vulnerability is more acute in case of health care delivery services that needed much in case of any climatic disaster. Bangladesh bears the brunt of effects of climate change in its initiatives to ensure health for all and overcome poverty.

It is climate change that threatens to undermine our achievements, erode our hard-earned gains and seriously weaken our development initiatives in the areas of agriculture, forestry, fisheries and all other areas of economy and bio-diversity activities related to income generation for reducing poverty and above all, improvement of health condition of poor physically, mentally with development of human resources.

Bangladesh is vulnerable to the effect of climate change due to its possibility of sea level rise, repeated cyclone, deeper penetration of saline water, erratic rainfall, flood, drought, river bank erosion, etc. Unfortunately, these have serious implications on public health particularly in a country like ours where any change in climate directly effects huge population, economically, physically and increases mortality and morbidity of which women and children are worst victims.

The vulnerable areas affected by climate change are pillars of health like food, water, and air. Climate change very adversely affects the food production, availability of water, and spread the water borne diseases. It is also responsible for infectious diseases, ARI, respiratory disorders, asthma, cardiovascular diseases, Nipah virus infections, tuberculosis, hepatitis, skin diseases; snake bites, mental disorders and also water- borne diseases like cholera, intestinal disorders, out break of diarrheal diseases, etc.

Most of the vector-borne diseases like malaria, dengue hemorrhagic fever, emerging and re-emerging diseases spread extensively due to the changes in the climate specially in urban areas where solid waste disposal, food contamination and adulteration with dangerous substances, color and chemicals are widespread urban areas where more than 30 per cent of the population reside.

In consideration of the serious threats of climate on the economy and human health Bangladesh government has developed National Adaptation Program of Actions (NAPA-2005) to project the extends of damage and requirements of assistance to make adequate response to the impact of climate changes.
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP-2009-2018) has been prepared seeking the support of about US$ 10 billions (Tk.70,000 crores) to deal with the impact of climate change as worst victim country. The plan contains around 37 programme and 128 projects and already received about US$ 45 millions from the national budget and agreed to establish a Multi-donor Trust Fund (MTF) to address the climate change issues.

It is necessary to place priority on health interventions and requirements of fund for the health care services with due emphasis as the situation demands so. It is understood that health professionals and experts are not adequately represented in the delegation participating in Copenhagen from Bangladesh to raise their voices with priorities and estimates and supports needed for public health issues. Possibly, the needs and priorities of public health and reproductive health care have not been adequately incorporated in the Action Plan of Bangladesh. It is true; the climate change calamities on public health shall remain unattended if health impacts are not responded adequately. Health being related with poverty issues must receive due attention adequately at appropriate forum.

Under such a situation, policy response to public health implications of climate changes will have to be formulated considering the scale, extent, and timing of effects, nature, location and intensity of its impact on pubic health. Besides, there should be positive improvement in surveillance with serological survey and region specific needs and projections of the requirements and nature of interventions.

The risks factors and response options need to be very much distinct with nature of vulnerabilities that might effect the demographic transitions due to climate change. Health, nutrition and population experts must come out with no time loss to address these areas of public health issues related to climate change with definite responses required. There should be a health protection strategy with the identification of health benefit actions to protect public health with reduction of greenhouse gas emission.

There should be population planning indicating the possible displacement of people due to natural disasters, destruction of health and population infrastructure and needs of rapid response to address the public health with adequate treatment, emergency recovery and major investments needed for the purposes.

Above all, community support is a must to respond to the health and population program interventions for which political commitment is indispensable. We believe that health care services can not get its accessibility and affordability with the support of the community at large.

The health care delivery system with climate change variables needs much more people's participation to develop realistic and public oriented approaches in coming days .We expects the Copenhagen conference shall prioritize health issues in right perspectives to ensure involvement of the people so that voices of the worst affected poor population are listened with proper attention.

 

(The writer is former adviser, caretaker government of Bangladesh)

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

AN ASSAMESE MAGAZINE REJECTS ADS ON PRINCIPLE

NAVA THAKURIA

 

Is it possible for a magazine to survive in today's word without depending on the commercial advertisement revenues? Can a general magazine, supported by no organization but only by its readers, dare to avoid the advertisements just to endorse its principle? Or is there such an initiative in India or elsewhere?

The answer is yes and it is in Assam (of Northeast India), where a fortnightly magazine named 'Prantik' has created a kind of history by its policy of not entertaining the advertisers. The magazine in Assamese language survives with the support of the readers only. It has an approximate 25000 circulation. But amazingly Prantik is distributed in more than 25 countries including America and Europe.

The editor of Prantik, Pradip Baruah revealed many of such surprises in a recent interactive session at Guwahati Press Club of Assam. Attending the programme titled 'Guest of the Month', Baruah said that initially they used to publish advertisements of different products including cigarette and hard drinks. In fact, Prantik was pioneer in Northeast to accommodate space for colour ads.

"But many of our readers wrote to avoid such advertisements only because of some money. They even advised us to increase the price of the magazine instead of going for the advertisements of those unhealthy products. Then we stopped publishing such advertisements and made an official declaration in this regard. Later we decided not to publish any commercial advertisements, because many times it demanded unfair practices," Baruah declared.

Answering various questions of the reporters, Baruah admitted that the volume of serious readers were not increasing as desired in the last decade, but he hoped that time would where more and more people start accepting the reading habit as their passions.

He also expressed optimism that the identity of Assamese society would be intact even if the number of Assamese speaking people would reduce to few lakhs (now in crores) or they be out of political power or influences. It may be mentioned that Baruah started his magazine more than two decades back with the eminent litterateur, playwright and filmmaker Dr Bhabendranath Saikia as the chief editor. After the untimely demise of Dr Saikia, Baruah led the team to continue publishing Prantik from Guwahati with all his vigour and commitments.

Guwahati, which is emerged as the virtual capital of Northeast, houses more than 20 major daily newspapers with thousands periodicals including magazines. Most of those are published from Guwahati and other places of Assam, where as some metro dailies have Guwahati editions as well. Though Assamese is the native languages for most of the people, English and Hindi are well recognised and accepted for communication by more than 26 million habitants in Assam.

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia describes Prantik as 'a multi-topic Assamese magazine published fortnightly from Guwahati since 1981.' It plays a vital role in the socio-political lives of the people of Assam, the internet encyclopedia added. "With every issue of Prantik, I actually pay my heartiest tribute to Sir (Dr Saikia)," revealed Baruah, who is also the publisher of the magazine.

Born in Dibrugarh in 1938, Baruah started his working life in The Assam Tribune group of publications since 1960. The third son of RG Baruah, a legendary Assamese personality, Baruah continued working for the prestigious and the oldest media house in Northeast India till 1980.

Then he came out with the idea of a magazine, which can nurture the rational needs of the society. "I want to maintain Prantik neither as a hot commodity nor a cold entity, but a warm creation," Baruah added.

"When it (Prantik) started with a comprehensive approach covering almost all aspects of the State's society, it was accepted as a trendsetter by the readers. Though started with the established writers, in course of time, it created a new set of writers signaling the advent of another new era in the Assamese world of literature and journalism," commented Ajit Patowary, a Guwahati based senior journalist.

Prantik today covers varieties of sections including politics, agriculture, industry, health, economics, literature, travelogue, film, theatre, art & culture with science and environment. Till date Prantik has created a number of writer-journalists. More over the magazine provides significant space for the readers, where they can raise issues, discuss about their concerns and some times talk about their personal feelings that might have social relevance.

Samir Sandilya, a regular reader of Prantik since his childhood, observed, "I find it astonishing how a modern day magazine can deny to entertain the advertisers.' This is a well known fact that every media house in the country installs a smart and strong ads department as a priority. Media pundits often discuss about the growing influence of advertisers in editorial policy of a newspaper. Ads normally come with additional inputs to media space. And many times, it is observed that those inputs are really opposite to the original policy of the newspapers but the management fails to stick to their norm.

However, another avid reader of Prantik, Lakshyajit Gohain apprehends it as a 'risk factor' for a largely circulated commercial magazine. "Moreover, I do not see any reason to reject commercial advertisements with contents those are not against social values," said Gohain while adding that we wants Prantik to survive hundred years with an aim to grow more and more enlightening people in the region.

During interaction, Baruah disagreed that the new generation Assamese with English as their language of education would forget their own language. "I have many writers in Prantik, who had educated themselves in English medium, but write in Assamese. And they have proved themselves prolific contributors," he asserted.
"I find the job to read hundred letters (to the editor) and select some of those for publication very passionate.
Those letters, which may come from a remote village of Assam or a city of western countries, actually carry the feelings of the readers. It is not only exciting but also refreshing all the times," Baruah concluded.

 

(The writer is Guwahati based  columnist of The Independent)

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

WHITHER AFGHAN-PAK STRATEGY?

KAWSER AHMED

 

It is now over a year that Obama administration is charting its way through troubled water of "American Engagement" and trying to lift the American image to a newer height (so to say from drowning!). The challenge to this engagement strategy is bitterly felt more in oriental regions rather than occidental. Getting out of Iraqi imbroglio, now they have focused on Afghanistan. But Afghanistan does not stand alone as a frontier to fight terrorism or defeating Al-Qaeda. Its closest brother Pakistan also shares the burden if not equally but not less either. For some unpredictable reason, Americans sadly missed the priciest dictum, 'War is too costly to leave it to generals'. Because, if you leave this war to the generals they will keep thinking about their needs only (the recent dichotomy of putting more troops by General Stanley McChrystal and US Ambassador in Afghanistan General (retd) Karl Eikenberry is a case in point). If such a campaign (in military parlance) to be waged, a number of ways (lines of operations) need to be planned to achieve the end state - victory. This victory needs also to be just, economic and worthy of struggle. A careful balancing of ways and means thus remains to be most important exercise that had been missed out by such a modern band of men and its machines of America. With the passage of time winning war in this theater is withering in thin air. Besides talking about military defeat, two more aspects of this losing battle are visible now; collateral damage and dubious nature of Afghan government (charged with rampant corruption). They are the newest menace obstructing to achieve the ultimate goal of this campaign. Now President Obama's National Security Advisor, General James Jones is reiterating the golden 'two basic rules, at least in my book, on how you fight and win against an insurgency is you don't do anything that's not good for the people and you don't make any more enemies than you already have….that if you lose the people, then you probably lose the struggle'. But for any careful reader of military history, fighting insurgency or terrorism always demanded these basic tenets to be adhered and there is no novelty in it. So we all muse on this new realization of Americans though late but still in their language 'all options are on the table'. Is it going to bring any qualitative change in the overall campaign? So, they came up with the newest Af-Pak strategy.

This strategy was unveiled in March 2009 by Barack Obama, in the backdrop of an "increasingly perilous," situation by sending of an additional 4,000 troops, bringing the US deployment to more than 6,000, and to increase economic aid to Pakistan to US$1.5 billion a year for five years. Progress will be monitored with a series of benchmarks and metrics imposed on Pakistan, Afghanistan and US efforts. There will be no "blank cheques," and Afghanistan and Pakistan will be expected to demonstrate their commitment by ramping up their governance and rooting out extremists. This is a clear manifestation of US dominance in this campaign which marginalized NATO in its efforts to secure the two countries. It has also made an attempt to cast its net wider by incorporating regional states, most significantly Russia, China, Iran and India. Two major aspects of this strategy are; first, the idea that the Taliban can be divided into "good" and "bad" categories and the other strand is of re-orienting Pakistan's foreign policy so that India can somehow be persuaded to negotiate with Pakistan on Kashmir, allowing Islamabad to concentrate less on its feud with India and more on its turbulent western frontier. Both these aspects are self-defeating because categorization of Taliban into good and bad groups is historically flawed. It might look appealing to outsiders, but to the regional powers such as India, Iran and Russia, such an approach is an anathema. Elements of the Taliban who might be willing to strike a deal with the West just to see the western forces leave the region will haunt the security of regional states like India and Iran long after the western forces are gone, as they have done in the past. The idea of negotiating with less extremist elements in the Taliban in Afghanistan was based upon the experience of American and British forces in Iraq, where Sunni militias were paid and trained to fight their former Al Qaeda allies. The new differentiation between Al Qaeda and the Taliban aims to seek out what has been widely termed "moderate" Taliban. The earlier strategy of treating Al Qaeda and the Taliban as synonymous brought these two diverse entities closer together, both ideologically and practically. And to woo India for such a cause in Afghanistan is nothing but undermining and remaining unaware of regional balance of power sensitivities in this region.
India and Pakistan were close to a deal on Kashmir in 2007, not because of any outside pressure but because India was confident of the support of the friendlier Bush administration. The present US administration's clumsy handling so far has put India once again on the defensive - and a defensive India is never going to give the US what it wants most. Though the cornerstone of this strategy dwells on its regional approach and for the first time, Afghanistan and Pakistan are treated as two countries, but one challenge in the region. US strategy focuses more intensively on Pakistan than in the past. This calls for more significant increases in US and international support, both economic and military, linked to performance against terror. Together in this trilateral format, US is working to enhance intelligence sharing, military cooperation along the border, and address common issues such as trade, energy and economic development. The strategy for the first time is resourcing US effort to train and support the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police. Every American unit in Afghanistan is partnered with an Afghan unit and additional trainers from allied countries are sought to ensure that every Afghan unit has a coalition partner.

Let's look back a little in the landscape of conflict to identify why this strategy has little chance to succeed. In the chronology of event, the most obvious is the shift in attention from Iraq to Afghanistan as new administration took over.

Under George W. Bush, the US had an uncoordinated strategy in Afghanistan, enabling the Taliban, after being beaten back in 2001 and again in 2002, to recover and reemerge. Since 2004, the Taliban and two independent allied commanders Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbaddin Hekmatyar, have swept into large swaths of southern, eastern and northern Afghanistan. And since then Afghanistan turned into a re-conquered territory with reinvigorated zeal by Taleban. After independence, Federally Administered Tribal Area in Pakistan (FATA - seven Pashtun administrative units as tribal agencies and six tribal areas known as Frontier Regions) has been tenuously governed because of deliberate isolationist policy, not because of Pashtun tribal traditions or resistance. The civilian government faces significant challenges in implementing even a modest reform agenda in FATA since the Pakistan military retains control over sensitive areas of domestic and security policy. General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has continued former president General Pervez Musharraf's peace deal strategy, expanding it from North and South Waziristan agencies to Bajaur and Mohmand agencies in FATA's northern belt, with similarly detrimental results. Nor has this policy been limited to FATA, as evident in military-led negotiations that culminated in the imposition of Nizam-e-Adl 2009, which established Sharia (Islamic law) in Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)'s. Instead of a sustained attempt to dismantle and destroy the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) network - led  by Baitullah Mehsud until his death on 5 August 2009 and now by his deputy Hakimullah Mehsud - the military continues to rely on a two-pronged approach of sporadic strikes and negotiations with militant groups. Pakistani Taliban groups have gained significant power in the tribal agencies, seven administrative districts bordering on Afghanistan. Pakistan's fresh military offensive has a debilitating affect. More than a million FATA residents already have been displaced by the conflict, mostly from Bajaur agency in the north and Waziristan in the south. Ongoing military operations in Khyber agency have forced as many as 100,000 to flee to safer locations in NWFP. While the military restricts domestic and international humanitarian access to FATA's conflict zones, neither the Pakistan government nor the international community has addressed the full costs of the conflict to civilians. The dilemma for Pakistan's army with the new policy is thus two fold. First, it must cooperate with the Americans in its pursuit of Taliban in tribal areas to root out extremism and the militant threat in the area. Military and non-military aid to Pakistan promises to be more intricately tied to such cooperation than ever before. Second, if the army fails get hard on the Taliban, Pakistan risks international isolation.

While Pakistan's infrastructure will surely get a makeover, it will be challenging to develop institutional and social capacity in Pakistan. Whether there will be a marked improvement in standards of living also remains to be seen. The UN Human Development Report for 2007-08 conservatively estimates that almost 33 per cent of Pakistanis live in poverty. The most welcomed aspect of the new policy is the emphasis on Afghanistan and Pakistan's civil institutions over individual leaders (the presidents). In what many have described as a "civilian surge," both countries will receive massive injections of cash, projects and experts. Development aid for new schools, roads and clinics has been targeted for Pakistan's tribal areas, around $7.5 billion in non-military aid over five years (the Kerry-Lugar bill). "Reconstruction opportunity zones," aimed at facilitating development and foreign investment by offering reduced tariffs and other taxes, are also proposed for those areas along the Pak-Afghan border that are most afflicted by the Taliban. The hope is that by creating a free trade and industry zone, employment opportunities will draw young men away from the Taliban.

The Af-Pak policy cannot succeed unless the poverty upon which the militants prey is addressed. Poverty poses the greatest challenge to Afghani and Pakistanis, and no promises made by Washington, Brussels or Islamabad will have bearing unless they address it. If faith is to be instilled in a better society based on pluralism, democracy and equal rights, the basic needs of these people need to be met.
Falling back to General James Jones' symbolic overture of a 'three-legged stool' while referring to Af-Pak policy, he was hinting one leg as military or armed effort; others are humanitarian assistance and capacity building. Military actions for such conflicts are aimed at keeping the terrorists at bay while the humanitarian assistance is aimed at winning hearts and minds of local populace. The capacity building of war torn government and institutions need an equal attention per se (as the institutions will take over once the exit of external armed forces take place). For Afghanistan-Pakistan, that is how all the legs of the stool never been completely balanced. It's been tilted very heavily in favour of military and kinetic efforts.
But ultimately in order to make the stool leveled off so that the capacity building -- turning more over the Afghans themselves, now becomes a reality and deserves adequate mentorship, guidance, support and the resources. So how long it will take to better coordinate both the military and the civilian effort and to incorporate and inculcate the very essence of Afghan governance in society as a fully contributing member to that effort? The question remains unanswered till now and we keep on seeing the spate of violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan spiraling up in a daily basis. Now days it is hardly discernible which country is being shown on television as the portrayal of violence, extent of damage are identical.

To draw a conclusion on Af-Pak strategy, I thought it is befitting to quote from M.J. Akbar (Director, Covert Publications) who once met the Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum in Mazar-e-Sharif. In an interview with Dean Nelson and Ben Farmer of the Daily Telegraph (published on 13 November) he mentioned couple of rugged points, those might be unsuitable in western strategic parlance but to my understanding valuable;
* Not one Afghan officer of the rank of captain or major has been killed in battle in six years, since Afghans do not consider this their war;

* Western leaders are mistaken if they believe that Taliban soldiers will defect, or betray Osama;
* Western aid has not touched poverty, but only killed local initiative and enriched the political elite;
* Taliban can only be defeated by a pragmatic military strategy that avoids categories like "good" and "bad" and involves local communities.

Dostum dismissed the anti-corruption sanctimoniousness in a classic sentence: "They are demanding unicorns in Kabul."

A just war may be waged initially but fighting a war justly is all that difficult and it remained to be same over few thousand years. No untimely deaths can be justified whatever rhetoric the Americans might use. The coffins covered with national flags flying out of Afghanistan are a painful scene to reconcile. The Russians did the same and so did the British far ago. I am marveled with one silly question; why can't we learn from history? I am optimistic, but are the Americans and their allies with their Af-Pak strategy?

 

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THE INDEPENDENT

EDITORIAL

LUNGI REINVENTED !

 

THE traditional Bangladeshi lungi and national dress worn by our ancestors right through to the present generation, has been re-invented.

It's been given a pocket!

Not just any pocket, but one that's detachable and has a zip fastener, to prevent items from falling out.
Adding a pocket is the brainchild of photographer Ali Akbar from Haydarabad, Gazipur, and his long-time friend Sir Frank Peters, a frequent visitor to Bangladesh from England.

"Sir Frank said there was no logical reason why a lungi did not have at least one pocket. So we tossed about ideas for a while and finally agreed on a pocket that's held in place by Velcro®, has a zip fastener, and is detachable for easy laundering," said Ali.

"Gone are the days when I rolled my taka between layers of lungi material. Now everything goes in to the pocket, including a pen and notepad, my mobile phone, and many other items the regular lungi would not have permitted me to carry. It's very practical," he added.

When Sir Frank was asked to comment on the 're-invention' he described it tongue-in-cheek as a stroke of genius.

"Genius is perception of the obvious that no one else sees!" he said.

Ali said anyone could add a pocket to their lungi in minutes simply by folding over about one-and-a-half inches of the lungi rim all the way around and sewing it in place to give it strength and stability. Then adding a length of the 'male' Velcro ® that matches the opposite 'female' length on the detachable pocket. — MA

 

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THE HIMALAYAN

EDITORIAL

WAKE UP CALL

That the Supreme Court (SC) has come up with the verdict for the government to set up verdict execution units in all the ministries is noteworthy all because of the fact that as of present there is no specific mechanism that exists with the government for the stated purpose. Even a casual study of the verdict record book is enough to reveal that in the post-1990 years out of the Apex Court verdicts on about 400 PILs (Public Interest Litigations), only one-third have been implemented. For such verdicts to remain pending indicates the lethargic pace of the government ministries, and excuse of any sort cannot be justified. But, that seems the way that bureaucracy works when the accountability factor is not respected in the interest of the people for whom it matters the most. It may be of interest to note that even the directive on Bagmati river clean-up has remained in limbo. The frustration of the SC is evident in its recent order concerning a petition that had been filed with it. It is a good thrust considering the fact that the SC verdicts sets precedents but the non-execution of that is painful, which even the Court itself is unaware of till another PIL comes up for review. It is a matter of great concern that the orders of the SC that has to be executed as per the constitutional provision remain unfulfilled to quite an extent. And the government ministries remain the major defaulters in this regard.

Now that the SC has given a deadline of four months to the government to set up the execution units in all the ministries, it is a matter of time to observe the execution of the said order.

It may be worthwhile noting that though every ministry has a legal cell, the Apex Court verdict on PILs seem to have been disregarded. On this score, the special cells for such in each ministry can facilitate the execution aspect for SC orders. SC is cognizant of the urgency for its verdicts on PILs to be executed, but its monitoring mechanism too needs to be spruced up and appropriate action taken if there is any non-compliance by any individual, organisation or government line agencies. In fact, going a step further the non-execution of the SC verdicts itself implies impunity which cannot be allowed at any cost. But, for eliminating such tendencies the Apex Court itself has to be severe enough to penalise the wayward. Appropriate punishment can only deter the tendency to be indifferent to the verdicts of the honourable SC.

The Supreme Court is a hallowed temple of justice, and its judgments have to receive the right reception by everyone including the government.

No one can evade what the verdicts refer to. But, it has been seen that sometimes there is a gap of years between a SC order and its execution. Herein it may be worthwhile noting that the SC has the right to initiate the "contempt of court" exercise if any of its orders are not executed. This, if taken up, can dissuade the apathetic lot. However, for this the SC itself has to keep its verdict monitoring mechanism on its toes. The recent SC order is but a start, and the wait is for how the government ministries fall in line with it for it concerns the interest of the people in general.

 

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THE HIMALAYAN

EDITORIAL

SOME ANTI-BANDH

Students in Birgunj like those elsewhere seem to have had enough of bandhs. Fed up with the so-called bandh culture when a bandh closed their schools and colleges Monday they took to the streets against the politicization of the education

sector. It might be recalled that six months ago the political parties and the other concerned stakeholders had decided to declare the education institutions bandh-free zones. But, it seems that this has not been taken seriously and bandhs have resulted in frequent closures of the educational institutions. Thus, the students and their guardians are very much worried about their studies and future. Under the circumstances, there was little the students could do, but it does not mean that they should resort to burning tyres.

However, we should sympathize with the lot of the students of present day Nepal. The bandhs have led to the alteration of the academic calendar as classes and examinations could not be held as scheduled. In any case, it behooves on all to bear with the plight of the students so that they may be allowed to continue on with their studies unhindered for a better future.

 

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THE HIMALAYAN

EDITORIAL

HIGHER EDUCATION INTERESTS WORKPLACE OPPORTUNITIES

MANA PRASAD WAGLEY

There are many issues and concerns associated with modern day higher education both in developed and developing countries. With the kind of investments developed countries have managed, higher education in those countries is considered better than the higher education in developing countries.

Higher education is linked with the development of the individual and the society as a whole. That is the reason why many developed countries have tried to link higher education with workplace opportunities. The examples of American community colleges and the link of post secondary education with apprenticeship in Germany are worth considering. To help graduates to find jobs in the market has been the major concerns of higher education institutions today. Many educational programs in professional field have also been growing in this regard. Moreover, higher education once received can not serve the purpose for ever. The rapidly changing technology and the competitive job market always challenge higher education graduates to update their knowledge and skills. The implications of these can be clearly seen in the design and implementation of various forms of education beyond the bachelor's degree.

One can see attractive packages of certificate programs and short term courses for those who have higher education degrees. Other pertinent example to this can also be taken from the corporate houses which are spending billions of dollars to keep abreast their employee with the new knowledge and technology. This has serious implications on higher education to change its curricula in the line of both advance skills and life-long learning. The life long learning part has been considered in most of the developed nations whereas the developing nations, although realizing this, concentrate more on advance skills alone. There are many reasons behind this mainly financial position of the university. Poor countries like Nepal have hardly been spending any money for the use of technological advancement in higher education.

Equally developing concerns of higher education in the poor countries is its internationalization. In the name of internationalization many higher education institutions have forgotten skills and knowledge needed for their own soil. This means there should be a balance made between national priorities and international flavor in higher education. Universities in the developed countries have made another balance of advanced level of teaching and research activities; however, the developing countries have not yet been able to provide ample emphasis on research in higher education. Without the balance between the two the graduates of poor countries will always lag behind the developed countries. Access to higher education must be linked with access to research.

Concern for higher education access is growing these days. Even if developing countries like China and India have not been able to enroll more than 5 percent of the higher education age group the demand for mass higher education is increasing. The same applies to Nepal where around 7 percent of the age group have enrolled in higher education. The concept of higher education for the elites has been changed to mass higher education or higher education for all in the 21st century.

In the name of providing more access to higher education many countries these days have been establishing private higher education systems. Some countries in Europe like Finland have started promoting privatization of higher education in the recent years where all level of education is totally cost-free for students. This is because the government can no longer fund the total expense as needed by the universities. This has made education a commodity and the students customers. Many developed countries have also started privatizing higher education. In Nepal also there are more than a dozen universities in the pipeline waiting approval for private universities.

The other concern of higher education these days is the equity issue where the poor can have no opportunities in participation in higher education. Social class, women, and ethnicity have been the focus of social activists in this regard. Privatization and/or higher fees in public universities have been contradictory to the slogan of equity in higher education. With the growth of privatization, professorate has been neglected or replaced by part-time/visiting teachers. The student-teacher-ratio (STR) has been far neglected because the private institutions want to make more profit by spending less.

Funding higher education has been a global concern. Cuts in higher education can be seen in highly developed countries. Developing countries mostly depend upon the government for this kind of funding. In some instances the World Bank has shown interest in improving higher education in the developing countries, but the question is how long it can if the developing countries do not have any means to prioritize higher education for many decades to come.

Dr. Wagley is an educationist

 

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THE HIMALAYAN

EDITORIAL

GAGA OVER MIDWAY SYNDROME

KAMAL DEV BHATTARAI

The Singapore talk between Girija Prasad Koirala and Pushpa Kamal Dahal created swirls in national politics for days on end.

In addition, some media spillover referred to GPK and Prachanda agreeing to become the President and Prime Minister respectively to end the protracted political deadlock. However, the media reports weren't backed up by relevant facts, quotes and basic ingredients of news, that is to say they were fuelling the rumour mills.

The Singapore talks zeroed in on the "middle path", with both GPK and Prachanda principally agreeing to find that elusive middle path to end the reigning political deadlock. However, what is meant by the "middle path"?

Both GPK and Prachanda have not yet spelled out what middle path is.

According to GPK and Prachanda, they would gather at the middle of the stick, leaving their previous position at each end. Meanwhile, the task force politics has again been revived. The task force which had already entrusted to find the middle path has been activated, though one earlier one had failed to prepare the all — accepted Sankalpa Prastav.

It seems as if all options have been lost for the major political actors but finding the elusive middle path. It seems difficult as both- ruling parties and UCPN (M) are firm on their respective stances.

PM Madhav Kumar Nepal and dominant NC leaders are rigid that they would not accept any word or hints in the resolution motion against the President. On the other hand the Maoists want the Sankalpa Prastav to state in black-and-white that the president's step was unconstitutional- however it was done.

As nothing is unexpected in the party dealings, it would not be surprise if the parties prepare a common Sankalpa Prastav because our leaders are habituated to use vague and multiple-meaning words or language. Looking back, we have seen our leaders using many vague and ambiguous words to escape from the immediate problems, and now they are defining the past agreements in a way that suits them best. When "integration and recruitment in the Nepalese Army" has a different interpretation from one party to another, an ordinary person stands baffled as to what definitions will come up for the down-to-earth terms such as the middle path.

 

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THE HIMALAYAN

EDITORIAL

INGOS WASH HANDS OFF HIV/AIDS PROGRAMMES

LAXMI MAHARJAN

 

KATHMANDU: Combat HIV/AIDS programmes are facing an uncertain future in the country.

Donors are reluctant to pump in more funds, thanks to lack of comprehensive policies, under the guidance of the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP).

The killer disease, which initially came to the fore in the early 1980s in the Western nations, has since struck indiscriminately across the world, including many least developed countries like Nepal.

Initially, funds have never been in short supply owing to the patronage of developed nations.

Though the government has been entrusted with the onerous task of running these programmes single-handedly, it has, strangely enough, not allocated even one per cent of its health budget to tackle the scourge.

Donor agencies have alerted MoHP and its allied bodies like HIV/AIDS and STI Control Development Board and National Centre for AIDS and STD Control (NCASC) to formulate foolproof strategies to achieve the goals. Global Fund, an INGO, has recently turned down the nation's plea for additional funds. The reason: Lack of vision on the part of the government to monitor the campaign.

The powers-that-be also stand accused of outsourcing the programmes to "dysfunctional NGOs", who reportedly did precious little to justify their expensive ways and means. The INGO has been emphasising that the state needs to ensure that the drive translates to concrete action on the ground. It has sent a letter to MoHP, rging it be "more responsible towards its work".

Presently, the capital-intensive campaign is funded by Global Fund, DFID and UNDP along with host of international donor agencies, who also provide technical know-how to the government.

Dambar Ghimire, director, HIV/AIDS and STI Control Development Board, maintained that the halt in the cash flow was a temporary and one-off occurrence. He attributed it to certain technical glitches, which will be "rectified by December 28".

He, in turn, accused Global Fund of the latter's inconsistency in complying with the funding guidelines "It wanted us to involve the civil society instead of 'expensive' NGOs last year.

But when we did that this year, it still found fault with us," alleged Ghimire.

He reasoned that the government could not take sole responsibility for such a lofty cause.

On December 1, the World AIDS Day was observed, harping on the apt slogan "Universal Access and Human Right".

Will this ever be implemented in Nepal? That still remains the big question.

The MoHP data reveals that 14,787 people are infected with HIV till mid-October. And most of them have little access to healthcare facilities. Dr KK Rai, director, NCASC, alleged that various INGOs were influencing Global Fund not to allocate more money to Nepal. But, he had no clinching evidence to back his assertions.

"We'll look for alternative funding agencies," he maintained. Rajiv Kafle, president, Nepal Association of People Living with HIV, blamed the lack of political will for the sorry state of affairs.

"The government needs to be more even-handed with the budget. Besides, the proposals to donor agencies should be ratified by experts," explained Kafle.

He also felt that worldwide focus on HIV/AIDS has been diffused of late.

"And the impact will only be felt after 2012," he added.

UNAIDS figures revealed that the number of HIV+ across the world was 33 million in 2007. Around two million died last year.

The World Health Organisation maintains that the spread of the disease has come down by 17 per cent in the past eight years. The corresponding figure for South Asia, though, is only 10 per cent.

 

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THE AUSTRALIAN

EDITORIAL

CANCEL CHRISTMAS -- THE COALITION'S READY TO ROLL

IT'S EARLY DAYS, BUT TONY ABBOTT IS SHOWING HIMSELF TO BE A DISCIPLINED AND ALERT LEADER.

 

Now he needs his front bench to follow suit. His shadow cabinet announced yesterday contains some real talent, some payback and a couple of riskier appointments. On balance, it is more conservative than that of his predecessor, as Mr Abbott begins the tough task of forging a "clear alternative" to the Rudd government.

 

His own performance -- on Sunday when he so effectively repelled Laurie Oakes's question on evolution; on Monday when he refused to be drawn by Malcolm Turnbull's attacks; and yesterday when he adeptly handled his reshuffle -- have sent positive messages to the electorate and his party. He is maturing fast, refining his pitch and offering a clearer line on complex policy like industrial relations. The "Mad Monk" image is disappearing as Mr Abbott positions the Coalition to chase the Howard battlers who opted for Kevin Rudd in 2007. Wooed by "kitchen-table" promises to address grocery and petrol prices, they are now judged as ripe for reharvesting. The Leader of the Opposition will be good with this constituency: he is educated and eloquent but does not patronise people or engage in faux ockerism. Far from rich, with a working wife and a mortgage, he can easily campaign against the multi-millionaire Rudds just as Mr Rudd attacked the wealthy Malcolm Turnbull.

 

But Mr Abbott cannot do it alone, and his reshuffle shows he understands this. Retaining Joe Hockey as Treasury spokesman and Christopher Pyne in education; giving climate change to the knowledgeable Greg Hunt -- all these make good sense and help project the image of a broad-church Coalition, even as the party repositions itself to the Right on some issues. There are rewards for supporters such as Bronwyn Bishop and Kevin Andrews but Mr Abbott has also brought in new talent in Marise Payne and Scott Morrison, who has been given the delicate job of immigration. Including Barnaby Joyce on the front bench locks in the Nationals' support and exploits the senator's talent for rabble rousing, Yet his appointment to finance is a gamble on whether he can stay focused and hold the government to account over debt and credibly promise fiscal rectitude. His challenge will be to manage the mixed messages he will need to send to the electorate. Similarly, putting Eric Abetz into workplace relations looks like a reward for leadership support. He will be tested in an area that proved devastating for the Coalition in 2007.

 

Peter Dutton should prove adept in health where the government is dragging the chain on reforms. Mr Dutton, backed by Mr Abbott as an experienced former health minister, will attempt to blame Canberra for failures in the states' hospital systems. The Coalition may find itself fighting the election on climate change in some urban electorates, but is likely to get more traction in battler seats in areas like interest rates, the economy and delivery of health services.

 

Mr Abbott cancelled Christmas for his shadow cabinet yesterday, promising to keep up the pace over summer. After months of destabilisation and a couple of weeks of near-suicidal behaviour, the Coalition has signalled it wants to get back to the real business of opposition.

 

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THE AUSTRALIAN

EDITORIAL

CANBERRA SHOULD STAY OUT OF APPROVING URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE

KEVIN RUDD KNOWS HOW TO GET THE MOST OUT OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT.

 

He promised in opposition to fix the hospital system and as of Monday's Council of Australian Governments meeting, he is still promising, five months after receiving a report on national health reform. Now the Prime Minister has a scheme to save the cities, telling the premiers they must sign on to national planning standards for urban development to qualify for federal infrastructure funding. This is but an expansion of an idea he had in 2007 when he promised to study housing supply when in government.

 

In this case, inaction is no bad thing. It is not as if the states are short on infrastructure planning. And agreeing that capital cities need more and better roads and railways will not get them built. If Canberra really wants to improve urban design, it will increase funding for some of the practical plans the states already have to improve transport. But it is hard to imagine a case for creating a third set of bureaucratic approvals for major developments. The way Canberra and the states share responsibility for health is not a model anybody would welcome. The Queensland and South Australian governments already have respectable development strategies for their capital cities and federal scrutiny is unlikely to improve them.

 

The idea Canberra can plan cities dates from the Whitlam era. Yet centralised planning failed then. Does anybody remember the plan to make Albury-Wodonga a garden city on the Murray? If Mr Rudd wants a national approach to improve city living, he should compel the states to plan less. One of the main reasons why cities spread so far, racing ahead of the roads and railways they need, is because local and state planning requirements push up prices and delay construction of developments. It is easier for developers to build on greenfield sites than create high- and medium-density housing in the inner city and suburbs. State and local government charges add up to $68,000 to the cost of a new home in Sydney's northwest.

 

With industry estimates putting demand for new houses at 170,000 a year while actual construction was 130,000 in 2008-09 and 155,000 this financial year, the real problem of urban design is not the aesthetic appeal of our cities but the lack of new houses in them.

 

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THE AUSTRALIAN

EDITORIAL

KENEALLY SETS CABINET'S COURSE

KRISTINA KENEALLY ANNOUNCED HER NEW CABINET YESTERDAY WITH A STATEMENT THAT WAS LESS BOLD THAN BRAZEN.

 

"We are about stability", the third premier of NSW in barely a year said about the second reorganisation of the ministry in less than a month. As a description of the state government since September last year, when caucus conspirators removed then premier Morris Iemma, it is nonsense. Since then, politics in NSW has been a cross between a Jacobean tragedy, with constant conspiracies, and a three-ring circus with ministers carrying on like clowns. But as an aspirational statement, it demonstrates that Mrs Keneally understands she has until the March 2011 election to save the government by ensuring ministers appear in the media only to make policy announcements, not to attack their colleagues or announce they want to spend more time with their families.

 

This will not be an easy task for Mrs Keneally, as demonstrated by her cabinet appointments. She has cut loose some of the dead weight of recent ministries. The unpopular Joe Tripodi stays out of office. The immensely able but accident-prone John Della Bosca has not returned to cabinet. And she has left senior ministers in sensitive service delivery portfolios unchanged. Eric Roozendaal remains Treasurer, Verity Firth continues as Education Minister and the efficient Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt stays as Health Minister. But some factional warriors are rewarded. Ian Macdonald, dismissed from cabinet by Mrs Keneally's predecessor, Nathan Rees, is back. Tony Kelly, whom Mr Rees demoted, is promoted into the Premier's former planning portfolio. And Frank Sartor, who some in caucus wanted in the top job, is brought back into the ministry to manage climate change and the environment.

 

In minimising moves, Mrs Keneally has made the best of an ordinary job. While the odds are against her -- Labor has an election-losing vote in Newspoll -- the Premier has started to plug the holes in the hull of a government taking water since the last election. She must now take on Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell, who expects the government's unpopularity to make him premier without any effort of his own. What her ministry accomplishes between now and the next session of parliament will decide whether Mrs Keneally has rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic or made her ship of state politically seaworthy.

 

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

HEALTH MUST STAY SICK FOR NOW

IT COMES as little surprise that the premiers and the Prime Minister made little progress on changes to the hospitals sector at their meeting on Monday. The Rudd Government's deadline for the states to fix their hospital systems or hand them over to federal control has passed with no movement. The latest annual report from NSW Health suggests why: NSW hospitals have exceeded their budgets by almost $160 million, and accounts for $70 million are still unpaid. That is just one state. No wonder Canberra may be thinking twice about taking it all on.

To keep the states (and the public) quiet, the Federal Government has handed over another$300 million to help hospitals reduce waiting lists for elective surgery. This is presented as "the third and final stage of the Elective Surgery Waiting List Reduction Plan" but in fact it is just emergency funding to fix a chronic problem: the states cannot afford to fund public hospitals according to need. Hospitals are exceeding their budgets not through waste or mismanagement - though these may contribute - but because they are not given enough resources for the task they face. Managing health is complicated further by the lack - remarked on by the Productivity Commission two months ago - of national data comparing the performance of public and private hospitals, and of a single classification system for care and procedures.

 

Given its ambitious program on many fronts, it is clear in hindsight that the Federal Government was too optimistic in setting a tight timetable for change to this major part of the bureaucracy. As it happens, the Government's attention has been wholly taken up with climate change. It might be thought that the Health Minister, Nicola Roxon, could push ahead with change by herself, but the Prime Minister's controlling, one-man-band management style militates against that. It is also true, though, that a federal takeover of health would be a vast upheaval - a genuine revolution, unlike the confected education revolution of which little has been heard lately. The handover of such a large area of state responsibility is a major change that faces serious hurdles - not the least of them being the obvious question: does anyone in Canberra know how to run a hospital? As Mr Rudd said yesterday, "If you are dealing with the future of the health and hospital system, you have to get it right". He is correct, of course. But if you make a promise, you will be expected to keep it - or you will appear, as the Rudd Government is increasingly appearing in this portfolio, to be all talk and not much action.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

BALIBO'S FACTS KEEP INTRUDING

 

THE admission by an Indonesian soldier that five Australian newsmen were deliberately killed and their bodies burned to cover up the 1975 invasion of East Timor shows two important things about contemporary Indonesia. The first is that freedom of speech, despite the Indonesian Government's self-defeating ban of the Australian film Balibo last week, is alive and kicking. The second is that the Indonesian ruling classes are struggling to keep up with all the implications of the country's developing democracy.

 

Banning the film piqued the interest of a new generation in what happened during the invasion and why even now the Indonesian Government would want to suppress it. It was a gift of publicity the film could never have hoped to generate alone. That happens in a democracy.

 

Gatot Purwanto, a retired colonel, was the first Indonesian officer to break ranks and contradict his government's long-held official line that the five Australian newsmen were killed accidentally in cross-fire. He admitted they were captured alive, admitted to the deliberate burning of their bodies, and used the Indonesian word for executed. Yet Purwanto was able to see the film last week, and his explosive comments were offered freely to the Indonesian news magazine Tempo, which published them. That, too, happens in a democracy.

 

But while Indonesia's media today are willing to investigate the story without fear or favour, the official reaction has been disappointing. The chief censor's belated explanation for the ban, that it would ''open old wounds of questionable objectivity'',

 

is not good enough, and reflects the Government's continuing state of denial. Instead of its bland rejection of the evidence, the Government should match the maturity of its society and vibrant free press in acknowledging what happened and prosecuting those responsible.

 

The Balibo incident has been an irritant in the relationship between Australia and Indonesia for decades - far too long. A proper investigation and open trial of those perpetrators who are still alive would see justice done, and allow the two countries to move forward on a stronger footing.

 

Many in the Indonesian military and government, as well as Australian observers who set more store by diplomatic expediency, have expressed a desire to move on and let the past lie buried now that Indonesia has entered its new democratic age. But war crimes do not have a statute of limitations. Allowing those responsible for crimes to remain above the law simply continues the impunity powerful people enjoyed under Soeharto's corrupt autocracy. That, more than denying a dark secret that will not stay buried, is what undermines democracy and the rule of law.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

THE ST KILDA TRIANGLE GOES BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD

 

SO THIS is how a $400 million decade-long saga to develop the prized St Kilda triangle site ends: with a drying up of funds, a commercial settlement, a string of casualties and a promise to do better next time. In other words, there was plenty of bang and whimper in the gradual demise of the triangle project, which according to Port Phillip Mayor Frank O'Connor is now ''terminated, absolutely''.

 

The project's death certificate comes in the form of a settlement under which the council will pay developer Citta Group $5 million over three years - a result Mr O'Connor insists is better than allowing the deal to stand. He says that scenario could have resulted in the project stalling and the 2.5 hectare site bounded by Cavell Street, Lower Esplanade and Jacka Boulevard remaining a dusty car park for years to come. Given this prospect the settlement, expected to be officially endorsed by the council next week, appears a sensible exit strategy for the council.

 

But as the curtain falls on one of Melbourne's most acrimonious and controversial planning disputes, the relief ought to be tempered by reflection on the broader implication of these events. The triangle project has been a colossal waste of time, energy and money (not just for the council, but also for the developer, which claims to have lost $12 million on the scheme). For this reason, the major players and the State Government - which displayed a shameful lack of courage in sitting out this round - should heed the lessons and forge a new vision for developing Melbourne's most valued areas.

 

While the global financial crisis was the final nail in the triangle project's coffin, it had been severely wounded by community opposition, in the form of protests, legal challenges and the election of an anti-triangle council in November 2008. The Age had also consistently argued against the most troubling aspects of the development: more traffic, over-commercialisation and the potential increase in drunken violence with the arrival of nightclubs with a capacity for 3000 patrons. That last concern was especially prescient given the increase in inner-city drinking barns and violent incidents during the past year.

 

Mr O'Connor is correct in suggesting ''the world has changed'' since the idea was floated, and that a new scheme ought to take into account concerns about climate change and drunken violence.

 

But the project also had several promising aspects, even if some, such as plans for an open-air ice-skating rink, were offered as an olive branch to protesters. The best ideas were positively inspiring: a contemporary art gallery for the Palais forecourt, a boutique hotel with a roof and facade bearing a sculpture of a Sidney Nolan sketch of Luna Park in black rolled steel, a building with a dramatic vertical garden and terraced landscaping from The Esplanade to the pedestrian beach crossing on Jacka Boulevard. Let's hold all these thoughts and avoid dismissing the entire project as a failure of imagination. It also ought to be acknowledged that the developer agreed to reduce the number of shops and accepted council's demands that only 20 per cent of them could be national franchises.

 

Indeed, the most vexing question that arises from the saga is its potential impact on other important developments. Will St Kilda's sorry example scare developers off other important inner-city projects? Will they conclude that these projects are more trouble than they're worth, and potentially ruinous, given the growing trend of NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) activism? The triangle developers, after all, needed to make the project pay. A shopping and entertainment precinct was the quid pro quo for restoring both the Palais theatre and public open space. And this is why the Government should have played a role: not simply because the site is on Crown land but because of St Kilda's allure for tourists.

The Government and Tourism Victoria rightly promote Melbourne's jewels - stressing to travellers that Australia is about more than the outback cliches. But then how can it justify leaving this crucial development exclusively in private sector hands? The Government's refusal to provide any funds for the restoration of the Palais helped unravel the project. The triangle project is indicative of the Government's wider disengagement from urban renewal projects. The experience should now prompt a return to the policy drawing board.

 

Source: The Age

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

PRIVATE OR PUBLIC, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR CASH-FOR-ACCESS

 

PREMIER John Brumby is to be congratulated for his decision to end the improper practice of giving companies exclusive access to himself and his ministers in return for donations to the ALP. However, it is disappointing, and equally improper, that Labor's fund-rasing arm, Progressive Business, will continue to hold meetings at which companies will be able to meet ministers in open rooms where other politicians and businesses are present.

 

What Mr Brumby has inexplicably failed to recognise is that the critical question is not whether such cash-for-access meetings are held in private or in a relatively more public forum, but rather that they are held at all. Regardless of the venue, the perception will be that patronage and favours are being dispensed to those who are prepared to pay.

 

The Premier claims that access to ministers cannot be bought in Victoria, a questionable contention given the disturbing connection between access and payment that has been established. Importantly, the electorate is unlikely to share Mr Brumby's apparent belief that, unlike other states, Victoria is somehow immune to the contagion of corruption, particularly when the essential safeguards against it are missing in this state.

 

 

Indeed, Victorians' faith in the exercising of proper process has already been tested by reports from The Age's Royce Millar that the coal company Exergen paid to meet Mr Brumby in August while the Government was considering the company's controversial proposal for a $1.5 billion scheme to export dried brown coal to India.

To remove any perception that companies can buy influence with the State Government, it must catch up with other states and sever the unhealthy connection between access and party donations, regardless of where these meetings are held.

 

Source: The Age

 

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THE GURDIAN

EDITORIAL

PAKISTAN: DANGEROUS ESCALATION

 

With every passing month, Barack Obama is sinking deeper into a long-term regional conflict in Afghanistan. The latest ominous sign was a report in the New York Times that America had threatened to target two Taliban groups sheltering in Pakistan if the government in Islamabad refused to do the job itself. This was characterised as a bald warning, rather than an ultimatum, and it went like this: unless the Pakistan army moved against Afghan Taliban leaders in the frontier town of Quetta, and the Haqqani network in North Waziristan, America would do so with drones. They could even deploy US special forces on Pakistani soil.

 

The last time US troops crossed the border to raid a village where militants were thought to be sheltering, there was such a political furore in Pakistan that the US was forced to promise never to use boots on ground again. Since then, relations between the US and Pakistan military have been patched up. A US drone killed Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-i-Taliban and Pakistan's public enemy number one, and the Pakistan army has conducted two large-scale operations against Taliban militants in Swat and South Waziristan, sustaining a bombardment of reprisals against civilian and military targets. The official line is that Pakistan is fighting its own war against militants, not a proxy one or America's. Pakistan's prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, whose authority is rising as his president's is falling, said that his ^­ civilian government did not distinguish between one militant and the next. That is only half the picture.

 

The other half is that, for all its co-operation with the US, the Pakistan army and the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) believe that India remains the strategic threat. They will not easily abandon the tools they have created to combat it. Still less will they do so if they know that the US will start pulling troops out of Afghanistan in 18 months' time. It may no longer control the Afghan Taliban in the way that it did a decade ago, but the Pakistan army has shown a marked reluctance to target leading Talibs in the Quetta Shura, with whom historically they have had no quarrel. On the one hand, the US demand is unsurprising. If thousands of extra US troops are to be sent to shore up Helmand, it makes no military sense to keep Baluchistan – on the other side of the border – a no-fire zone. But on the other hand, the threat of US action in Baluchistan represents a dangerous escalation. Mr Obama is demanding no less than that the Pakistan army reverse a policy it has pursued for decades in the name of a war it does not believe in.

 

There are other factors which might give the US military pause for thought. First, Baluchistan has its own insurgency, although the ethnic Baluchs are largely secular and have little truck with militants in the frontier zone. Second, it borders Iran, which has had its own history with Baluch separatism. A Baluch militia recently raided the Iranian city of Pishin, killing senior figures in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A group of 11 Iranian agents were intercepted a week later in Pakistan, and later released. But the incident was a reminder that this border is not peaceful. Third, the drones that the US is threatening to deploy fly from a desert strip in Baluchistan itself. If the Pakistan army wanted to stop US drones, all it would have to do is close the airfield down.

For all these reasons, we are unlikely to see large-scale unilateral US action in Baluchistan. But the threat of cross-border raids highlights the dilemmas of the front-door approach. Because unless the US tackles the central cause of regional instability – the unfinished conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir – an Af-Pak policy makes little sense. It has to include India as well. Only Pakistan and India can jointly ensure a lasting peace in Afghanistan. But this is not the course on which America is currently engaged.

 

 

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THE GURDIAN

EDITORIAL

IN PRAISE OF… MOLIÈRE

 

There is no point pretending that the play itself will be the main attraction to lots of the audience at London's Comedy Theatre when its new show officially opens next week. The West End debut of Keira Knightley will irresistibly get all the headlines and shift a lot of the tickets, though the rest of the cast of The Misanthrope – including Damian Lewis, Dominic Rowan and Tara Fitzgerald – are not exactly duffers. A special word of welcome is due, nevertheless, for the overdue return to the London stage of any play by Molière, who is an all too rarely performed dramatist in this country these days. We haven't yet reached the point where any reference to Molière requires a footnote to explain that he was a celebrated 17th-century French comic playwright. Yet things may be heading that way. Even the National Theatre, which in its early days was a staunch champion of his work, seems to have lost interest, with just a single production of Molière's work – Tartuffe – in the past 17 years. One part of the problem may be the decline of French A-level, and the gradual relegation of Molière from set-author status. More widely, though, British knowledge of French culture, like British knowledge of other European cultures, seems to be on the slide. A modern-day version of The Misanthrope by Martin Crimp, a writer who always likes to tweak the original, may not be the ideal opportunity to discover Molière's brilliantly observed comic world. But it is certainly a lot better than no opportunity at all.

 

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THE GURDIAN

EDITORIAL

YOUTH CUSTODY: FORMULAS FOR FAILURE

 

Bringing a disruptive teenager to heel is a tough task, but any parent can think of a few things likely to make the job easier. Keeping youths busy, well-fed and well-exercised would feature on any commonsense checklist, as would fresh air and the right balance between privacy and company. The counterpart to the dos are obvious don'ts: never create the impression that authority amounts to brute power, and – at all costs – avoid fostering recklessness by suggesting that there is nothing left to lose.

 

So far, so self-evident, one might suppose, but two new reports show how far Britain is from fulfilling these basic insights for the most disruptive youngsters of all. As part of an assessment of the UK's penal system, the Council of Europe's Committee on the Prevention of Torture yesterday gave its take on Huntercombe YOI, a large young offender institution which is by no means one of the worst. Inmates complained that the food was not just bad but also in short supply. Communal meals were rushed when they happened, the general pattern being for food to be eaten alone in the cell. An extraordinary chunk of every day is purposelessly passed within its four walls, with no current provision for regular outdoor exercise despite a little-used football pitch. Authority is regularly enforced through so-called "pain-compliant techniques" which the CPT wants stopped, with juveniles complaining about having their noses pulled in an uncomfortable grip.

 

Despite more encouraging signs in terms of healthcare and to some extent education, it is thus hard to imagine that Huntercombe turns many model young citizens out into the world. A separate report from the independent prisons inspectorate and the Youth Justice Board, published this morning, illustrates how its problems are far from unique. Surveying children and youths in custody nationwide, it found severe overrepresentation of care-leavers and ethnic minorities, and also establishes that there are many inmates who claim they would like to mend their ways but say they have done nothing during their time inside to facilitate this.

 

Although young prisoners feel somewhat safer than in the past, this progress could easily be reversed if the coming severe budgetary squeeze is not matched by a radical reduction in the total number of inmates. It can be done, as is shown by the tally of child – as opposed to young adult – prisoners, which has finally been reduced. Populist plans, such as the Conservative "presumption of prison" for anyone caught carrying a knife, would push things in the wrong direction. Young lives may never flourish in custody. But they might be less likely to be bent out of shape if far fewer of them were crammed behind bars.

 

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THE KOREA HERALD

EDITORIAL

FUTENMA DILEMMA

 

Just as Sejong City causes the biggest headache for the Lee Myung-bak administration, the controversy over the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps's Futenma air station in Okinawa is wildly shaking the three-month-old Yukio Hatoyama government of Japan.

 

As the leader of a government installed after the first change of power in half a century in Japan, Hatoyama was expected to exhibit bold leadership in addressing major issues, but he has shown a penchant for procrastination. As to the Futenma question, he has been overly scrupulous about its fallout on domestic political scenes, particularly the impact on the coalition with the minor Socialist Democratic Party, which demands the removal of the U.S. military facility from Okinawa.

 

Lee has much more freedom on the Sejong City issue; at least there is no diplomatic problem regarding the administrative town. Hatoyama is under strong pressure from Washington to settle the issue - in the way it was originally agreed upon - before the end of the year, so that the U.S. administration can get appropriations from Congress for the relocation project. U.S. President Barack Obama gave him the message on his visit to Tokyo last month, but the prime minister has delayed his decision, saying, "Japan does not have to be scared (by the U.S. demand)."

 

Some Japanese conservative oppositionists now compare the head of the center-left government to Korea's former president Roh Moo-hyun who used to insist that Korea should be able to say "no" to the United States. While Roh's liberal government could seek an independent voice in the complex web of relations with the United States, China, Japan and even North Korea, such diverse options are not available to Japan, especially in its security ties with the United States.

 

The present ruling Democratic Party of Japan had been campaigning as the opposition in the September elections with a promise of negotiations to remove U.S. bases from Okinawa. It was a promise both hard to fulfill and difficult to break. As the prime minister is refusing to make a decision - whether to relocate the Futenma air station from the middle of Kinowan City to the coastal U.S. Camp Schwab or start renegotiations - his foreign and defense ministers are in favor of settling the issue before the year is over.

 

Different voices in the cabinet and the prime minister's own inconsistency over the Futenma issue plus the mounting suspicions about Hatoyama's political fundraising from dubious sources are pulling down public confidence in the DPJ government. The Socialist Democratic Party, meanwhile, is threatening to break off from the coalition and cause the DPJ to lose control of the upper house if the government accepts the Futenma relocation plan.

 

While residents of Okinawa are staging demonstrations calling for removal of the U.S. Marine air station from their island prefecture, Hatoyama is under siege. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is publicly deriding him as having only a few more months in office and party strongman Ichiro Ozawa remains aloof despite Hatoyama's tacit call for support.

 

Three months is not too long a time, however, especially from a landslide victory that changed the terrain of the conservative-dominated Japanese politics, and the former ruling Liberal Democratic Party has yet to recover from their devastating loss. The Japanese electorate will still be awaiting their prime minister to show a statesmanlike resolve about Futenma or any other major issues and ask for people's judgment as early as in the next upper house elections scheduled for July 2010.

 

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THE KOREA HERALD

EDITORIAL

BOSWORTH MISSION

 

Stephen Bosworth, former U.S. Ambassador to Seoul (1997-2001) and now dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, went to Pyongyang yesterday as the special U.S. representative for North Korea policy. He is the most recent in a line of U.S. negotiators with North Koreans over the nuclear issue, following diplomats Charles Kartman, Robert Galucci, James Kelly and Christopher Hill, names that had appeared on Korean newspapers almost on a daily basis while the North pursued its nuclear program.

 

After a decade and a half, all these special envoys' efforts have proved futile and so have the six-party talks in Beijing. North Korea has conducted nuclear tests twice - in October 2006 and May this year - although there were agreements at the multilateral talks on ending North Korea's nuclear arms development in exchange for economic aid and diplomatic normalization.

 

Bosworth is scheduled to stay in Pyongyang until Thursday. He is supposed to make two requests to whomever he meets in the North Korean capital: the North's return to the six-party denuclearization talks and its fulfillment of the Sept. 19, 2005, agreement for phased scrapping of the nuclear program. Yet, he could carry an updated message offering a "comprehensive package" to resolve the nuclear issue at one stroke, which Seoul likes to call a "grand bargain."

 

The special envoy's visit to Pyongyang is a significant achievement for North Korea, which has persistently requested bilateral talks with the United States for its goal of signing a peace treaty, excluding South Korea. Kim Jong-il and his chief negotiator Kang Sok-ju must be trying hard to make the most of the precious opportunity. Bosworth, however, made clear that his trip was entirely in connection with the six-party talks and has scheduled visits to Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow after his Pyongyang visit.

 

Almost a year has passed since the inception of the Obama administration, from which Pyongyang had expected a more flexible approach compared to the previous Bush administration. Yet, Pyongyang has earned practically nothing despite its saber-rattling with a second nuclear test. In Pyongyang, Bosworth will perhaps be showing only the catalogue of the comprehensive package, with the details to be revealed at the conference table in Beijing if the North returns.

 

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THE KOREA HERALD

EDITORIAL

GOVERNMENTS PLAY RUSSIAN ROULETTE

MIKHAIL GORBACHEV/ALEXANDER LIKHOTAL

 

GENEVA - Mounting skepticism and deadlocked negotiations have culminated in an announcement that the Copenhagen Climate Conference will not result in a comprehensive global climate deal. Disappointing? Certainly. But the Copenhagen climate summit was always meant to be a transitional step. The most important thing to consider is where we will go from here.

 

The phrase "the day after" is most commonly associated with the word "hangover." The absence of a binding agreement could mean a global hangover, and not just for a day. Fed up with apocalyptic predictions, people wanted a miracle in Copenhagen. So a perceived failure may cause a massive, perhaps irreversible, loss of confidence in our politicians. No surprise, then, that governments have sought to manage our expectations carefully.

 

Decision-makers have not faced up to just how close the world may be to the climate "tipping point." But, while a runaway climate remains a risk, runaway politics are already a fact. Official negotiations are removed from reality. According to the latest science, the current proposals under negotiation will result in warming of more than 4 degrees Celsius during this century - double the 2 degrees maximum endorsed by the G8 and other leaders. That leaves a higher-than-50-percent probability of the world's climate moving past its tipping point.

 

An agreement based on the parameters that are now on the negotiating table would thus put us in a position more dangerous than a game of Russian roulette. To avoid both the global hangover of no deal and the self-deception of a weak deal, a breakthrough is needed - and can still be achieved in Copenhagen.

 

A two-step process is now our best bet. States should make a political commitment to a framework that includes overall objectives, an institutional framework, and specific pledges of early action and financing. The declaration must stipulate that a legally binding agreement must be finalized by COP15-bis in 2010. That would allow the United States and other countries to enact the necessary legislation, and provide U.N. negotiators time to translate the COP15 declaration into an appropriate, workable legal structure. If this means a total reworking of the current document, so be it.

 

In addition, it might be necessary to have a review conference in 2015 to adjust our targets and plans to the new realities. Therefore, it is more important than ever that heads of state attend the Copenhagen conference, as this two-step solution will only work with strong, direct intervention by leaders.

 

In 1985 during the height of the Cold War, when negotiations were bogged down at the U.S.-Soviet Union Geneva summit, the negotiators were instructed by their leaders annoyed by lack of progress, "we do not want your explanations why this can't be done. Just do it!" And it was done by the morning. Today's leaders must come to Copenhagen and say, "We want this done!"

 

To move forward, the Copenhagen meeting must break the political deadlock between industrialized and developing states. Climate injustice must be redressed, as developing countries bear the brunt of the impact and face massive adaptation costs. Rich countries need to put serious money on the table. Claims that they lack the needed resources ring hollow, as trillions of dollars were found to bail out banks in the financial crisis.

 

Poor countries are aware of their power to block progress. Veto power is effectively shifting from the U.N. Security Council to the G77 plus China. Who would have imagined in the West 10 years ago that the future and their children's well-being would depend upon decisions taken in Beijing or Delhi or Addis Ababa?

 

So the industrialized countries need to put a real financing offer on the table as soon as possible to allow time for a positive reaction and announcements of commitments from developing countries. In particular, commitment to an early-start fund - at least $20 billion to immediately assist the least developed countries - is critical. This would help establish the trust that is now sorely lacking, and create conditions to restart productive negotiations.

 

Leaders must be honest about the scale of the challenge and recognize that a systemic and transformational change, not incremental gestures, is required. The official response to climate change must be recalibrated to the level and urgency of the threat. A new global agreement must be science-based, not a lowest-common-denominator compromise watered down by vested interests.

 

Sensible risk management today dictates that atmospheric carbon should be stabilized at 350 parts per million of CO2 equivalent, not the current pathway of 450-500 ppm CO2. This requires emission reductions of 45-50 percent in industrialized countries by 2020, and almost complete de-carbonization by 2050, not the levels of 15-25 percent by 2020 and 60-80 percent by 2050 that are now on the table. Major developing countries must also commit to nationally appropriate mitigation actions. But the rich must move first. Their inaction over the last 20 years does not give them the right to point fingers.

 

Governments should not withhold the truth from their citizens. Everyone will have to make sacrifices. But do you want your home to be cheap, dirty, and dangerous or clean, decent, and safe? Are you ready to say, "Okay, kids, I inherited this house, but I neglected to maintain it, so you will have to worry that the roof might collapse at any time?" That is not the type of legacy that any of us would want to leave our children.

 

Mikhail Gorbachev, former president of the Soviet Union, is founding president of Green Cross International. Alexander Likhotal is president of Green Cross International and a member of the Climate Change Task Force. - Ed.

(Project Syndicate)

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THE KOREA HERALD

EDITORIAL

COMPARISONS ARE MISLEADING

KIM SEONG-KON

 

Despite the famous French proverb, "Comparaison n'est pas raison," which means "Comparisons are misleading," Korean people are inclined to constantly compare themselves to others. In Korean society, comparisons begin as early as when one is just a few months old and continue until one's twilight years in a nursing home. When a crawling baby does not try to walk, for example, Korean parents become impatient and compare their baby to the one next door, muttering, "That baby is already starting to walk. How come our baby is so slow?" They completely ignore the fact that a child's physical development and will to walk varies from one baby to another.

 

When the baby grows up and enters school, the parents begin comparing their child to his or her classmates, croaking: "Why can't you get a better grade than Su-jin in your class?" or "How come you can't be the top student like Jin-woo?" Such comparisons continue until their son or daughter graduates from college. Once again, Korean parents overlook the fact that academic aptitude differs from one person to another.

 

Korean mothers often frustrate their children by comparing them to their friends' children, saying, for example, "My friend's son, Mon-ho, is class president. Why can't you be one?" In fact, because Korean mothers always seem to bring up their friends' children and love to announce "My friend's son did this; my friend's son did that," people have coined the humorous word "Omchina." This word stands for "Omma chin-gu adle" (Mom's friend's son) and basically means "a very promising person" compared to the "hopelessly incompetent I."

 

Many Korean mothers are determined to send their children to hagwon despite the expensive fees. If you ask why, they will probably answer in unison: "Everyone I know sends their children to hagwon, so I have to do the same. I don't want my child to fall behind. That would make me very uneasy." It is true that most Koreans cannot stand falling behind in any race. Many of us hate it when someone supersedes us. We always want to be at the same level as others.

 

People raised in competitive environments seem to show two distinctive traits. First, they see everyone as rivals. Second, they seek uniformity, not diversity. Perhaps this is why Korean society is so competitive and Koreans are so susceptible to trends. Instead of being independent and individualistic, we all want to look the same. For example, we have to buy the newest cell phone, wear the latest fashions and sport the trendiest hair styles in order to keep up with others. We cannot tolerate looking different. When we protest against the government our slogans reflect our desire for total equality. For instance, some slogans read: "Why is your father the president of a company, while my father is a construction worker?" Or "Why are you rich, when I am poor?" Everyone has his own unique personality, ability and profession. Yet many of us do not want to acknowledge this undeniable fact and try to compare incomparable things, ending up unnecessarily frustrated.

 

Actually, many inherent problems in Korean society stem from these unscrupulous comparisons. It is a well-known fact, for example, that most Koreans feel relatively poor, deprived and inferior because we habitually compare ourselves with those who are far better than us. Then we resent them and blame society for being "unfair." But why can we not just be ourselves? We will never be happy if we incessantly compare ourselves to others who are better off. Instead, we will always bear grudges, feel resentful and attempt to pull down the rich and the privileged. Perhaps we should learn to pull down our vanity, appreciate our individual circumstance and do the best to flourish wherever we are in society.

 

We know that we are too caught up in comparisons when we continue to compare ourselves to others even while living in a nursing home. It is well known that whenever senior citizens dine together, they busily compare their clothes to their fellow residents'. If one is not wearing a brand-name jacket or shirt, one feels inferior. That's why when children visit, some seniors implore: "I don't need anything but some brand-name shirts. Could you get me some?" As they say, old habits die hard.

 

Not all people can become rich, lead a lavish life or enter a prime university. Life is not fair and that is the reality. It is wrong, however, if we detest the rich and the famous, disparage the successful and abominate first-rate universities. Also, we need to keep in mind that comparisons are often misleading. The famous maxim says, "The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence." But the reality is different. Another place only "appears" to be better than your own. We should stop comparing ourselves with others and start thriving in our own unique lives.

 

Kim Seong-kon is a professor of English at Seoul National University and director of the Seoul National University Press. - Ed.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

AT LAST, AN AFGHAN STRATEGY

 

After months of deliberation, U.S. President Barack Obama has announced his plans for Afghanistan. As anticipated, Mr. Obama decided to send an additional 30,000 troops to the embattled country over the new few months. And as expected, that decision has not satisfied anyone. His supporters want U.S. forces out of Afghanistan; his critics condemn his deadline for withdrawal of those forces, arguing it will only embolden America's enemies. Both criticisms are wrong, but they underscore the precariousness of Mr. Obama's position: This announcement is only the beginning of a long and arduous process, one in which success will in many ways depend on the support the president gets from his own citizens.

 

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Mr. Obama called the Afghan conflict "a war of necessity," a sharp contrast to Iraq, which he termed "a war of choice." Yet, as the United States drew down forces in Iraq and strengthened its commitment to Afghanistan, it was not clear what U.S. strategy was: What threat did Afghanistan pose to the U.S., how could it be countered, and how would the world know when the war was won — or lost?

 

After months of intense debate within his administration over those questions — "dithering," said his critics; a long-overdue assessment, said his supporters — Mr. Obama provided his answers in a speech to West Point cadets on the night of Dec. 1. Calling al-Qaida a "cancer" on a region that "is the epicenter of violent extremism," he concluded that "the security of the United States and the safety of the American people were at stake in Afghanistan." He outlined three goals: denying al-Qaida a safe haven; reversing the Taliban's momentum and denying it the ability to overthrow the government in Kabul; and strengthening the capacity of Afghanistan's security forces and government so that they can take lead responsibility for their country's future.

To achieve those goals, Mr. Obama will dispatch an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, starting almost immediately. Embracing the strategy laid out by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of allied forces in Afghanistan, the troops will be used to clear insurgents from strongholds and then secure and protect the country's main population centers. While Special Forces will maintain pressure on al-Qaida and their supporters, focus will shift to economic development and promoting reconciliation among Afghan factions, including moderate members of the Taliban.

 

Ultimately, success will depend on the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai winning the allegiance of the majority of his people. That will be tough. Mr. Karzai won a second term in an election widely viewed as tainted; his government is considered corrupt and ineffectual. If those flaws are not fixed, most Afghans will welcome the return of the Taliban if that promises stability and security in their daily lives.

 

It was the need to focus Mr. Karzai's attention that obliged Mr. Obama to say that the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan was not open-ended. As the U.S. president explained, "the days of providing a blank check are over." As one step, the U.S. will now provide more money to local officials rather than work through the central government. That may help stop some of the corruption, but it is not clear how Mr. Obama will assess Mr. Karzai's progress. He stated that withdrawal will depend on "conditions on the ground," but absent better defined standards, his leverage may vanish.

 

The most difficult task will be building capacity among the Afghan police and army. Without that, "clearing" insurgents will be a futile assignment. The challenges are manifold. There are only about 90,000 Afghan soldiers and some 93,000 Afghan police officers, numbers far too small for a country of 30 million people. The U.S. wants to grow those numbers to about 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police officers.

 

It will take more than increased numbers to make a difference. If the troops cannot or will not fight and the police cannot administer justice or are corrupt, then there will be no progress. Japan can help make a difference by offering training and support to the police force.

 

Winning the support of the Afghan people is key; maintaining the support of the U.S. public, along with those of other nations, is also critical. Americans remain deeply divided about the need to stay in Afghanistan, an understandable concern with some 100,000 U.S. troops committed to the country — 140,000 when all international forces are included — and the cost of the U.S. commitment likely to grow an additional $30 billion in the first year.

 

Worryingly for Mr. Obama, the loudest dissent comes from his political base. His supporters want all U.S. troops out, and soon; that view is shared by many allies. Yet, Mr. Obama remains resolute. He warned the American people that "none of this will be easy. . . . The struggle against violent extremism will not be finished quickly. . . . It will be an enduring test of our free society, and our leadership in the world." He is right, but it will take far more than one speech to win over the doubters. The months ahead are going to be a severe test of his political commitment and instincts, as well as those of his nation. This strategy can prevail, but it will take determination, assistance and a dexterity that the U.S. has demonstrated in the past — often as a last resort.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

DOOM AND GLOOM SCENARIOS FOR LIFEBOAT JAPAN

BY GWYNNE DYER

 

Japan is a lucky country. When the global average temperature has gone up by 2 degrees Celsius and most of mainland Asia is ravaged by famines, when civil wars and failed states and waves of climate refugees are the norm from Tehran to Hanoi and from Madras to Beijing, Japan will still be at peace and eating regularly.

 

However, the desperate people of the rest of Asia will all know that Japan is among the industrialized countries that created the disaster with their greenhouse gas emissions, and that it has nevertheless largely escaped the consequences of its actions. Maybe they will be in a forgiving mood, but maybe not.

 

This is an extreme scenario, and it may never happen. If the climate summit that opened in Copenhagen on Monday agrees on early, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, global warming may never reach plus 2 degrees.

 

Few people believe that the Copenhagen conference will produce a treaty that adequately addresses the reality of climate change, but more serious measures will doubtless follow a few years later, so let's be optimistic. Let us suppose that global heating is halted before we reach the 2-degree level, and that the warming never goes runaway.

 

Even then, the average global temperature will still rise by at least 1.5 degrees. The greenhouse gases to produce that effect are already in the atmosphere or will be put there in the next 10 years, before we can hope to cut our emissions radically enough. They won't produce their full heating effect right away, but it will arrive in due course.

 

No matter what we do from now on, the amount of greenhouse gases that we have put into the atmosphere will eventually raise average global temperature by 1.5 degrees, and average temperatures over land by more like 2.5 degrees. The main impact of that will be on the food supply.

 

In the tropics, the heat itself will be the main problem: rice yields fall drastically, for example, if the temperature is above 35 degrees during the critical fertilization period. In the subtropics, drought will be the crop-killer, as the rainfall shifts further away from the equator. Even the rain that does fall is likely to evaporate again from the hot soil rather than soaking in.

 

The closer a country is to the equator, the worse will be its plight. A few countries in the high latitudes like Russia and Canada will still be exporting grain, but most of today's major grain exporters will be out of the business (Australia is already on the way out).

 

The world grain supply is already tight. Assume a 15 percent loss of global food production and a billion more people by 2030, and we can expect recurring famines in the tropics and the subtropics — famines that cannot be averted by importing grain, because there is not enough left on the international market. South and Southeast Asian countries would suffer greatly, but China would not escape either, even though most of it lies in the temperate zone.

 

Once the glaciers up on the Tibetan plateau have melted, the great glacier-fed rivers of south and central China will be half-empty in the summer. The northeastern monsoon that waters the wheat crop of northern China is already failing. And the low-lying river deltas along the east coast where so much of China's food is grown face repeated inundation by storm tides as the sea level rises.

 

Hungry people move, across borders if necessary, and people in less afflicted countries may use force to stop them. Regimes that cannot feed their people tend to collapse: Failed states and civil wars will multiply. There may even be regional wars between countries that share the same river system, as access to water becomes a life-or-death matter.

 

Amid this pan-Asian chaos and misery, Japan would be an island of order and prosperity. Not only is it well within the temperate zone, but the seas that surround it would keep the average temperature down. With a maximum effort, it could probably just about feed the 100 million people who live in Japan in 2030 from its own resources. Lucky Japan.

 

Britain is lucky in much the same way as Japan. It has a geographical position that will keep the heat down and the rain reliable; it has enough land to feed its own people, if only just; and it is an island, which makes it easy to keep the refugees out. In strategic circles in Britain, one now sometimes hears the phrase "Lifeboat Britain." The same phrase applies to Japan — and lifeboats often cannot afford to take everybody aboard.

 

But the rest of Asia will know that Japan, the first industrialized country in the continent, bears a heavy responsibility for the disasters they are currently suffering because of its past emissions. They will see Japan itself escaping the consequences, and find it unfair. As they watch their own hopes for the future disappear, they may become very angry about it.

 

Some of this future may be avoided if there is early and effective action to reduce and eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. But it would have to be very radical action, very soon — and some of disasters would still happen. For Japan, climate change will become a security issue.

 

The Japanese version of Gwynne Dyer's new book, "Climate Wars," has just been published by Shinchosha.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

CLIMATE TALKS: ALL ABOUT RIGHTS TO HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT

NGURAH SWAJAYA

 

In the coming days, world leaders will assemble in Copenhagen, Denmark, to bestow their political boost for a global agreement to halt and reverse the devastating trend of climate variability.

 

It is still vivid in our memory, the last minute deal at Bali's climate change conference was made possible, among others, by the persuasive call from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon as well as the political boost by other world leaders present at the meeting.

 

Other essential factors that have led to the adoption of the Bali deals was the direct intervention of the people through the world-wide broadcast of electronic and printed media reportings from the venue.

 

Bali Climate Conference of the COP 12 UNFCCC and MOP 3 of the Kyoto Protocol were the first meetings of such forums that incorporated everybody at the negotiating table on board to determine a consensual agreement.

 

As the Copenhagen Conference starts, the world's people are once again presented with vague commitment by political leaders on their stance to follow up their consensus in Bali.

 

Strong political statements to cut carbon emissions by a significant percentage always have strings attached.

 

Concrete numbers mentioned in their statements might not always be followed through by their negotiators at the tables. An ambitious pledge to cut carbon emissions by up to 50 percent is always attached with yet to be revealed terms and conditions.

 

Singapore, for instance, has announced to undertake voluntary- and domestically-funded action to reduce its emission growth to 16 percent below "business as usual" levels by 2020.

 

The caveat of this commitment is if there is a legally binding global deal in Copenhagen that obliges all countries to cut emissions, and if other countries offer significant pledges.

 

This announcement follows other countries such as the US, Japan, China, Brazil, Indonesia and also the EU. Some countries, such as India, also made pledges to reduce from 20 percent to 25 percent in carbon intensity by 2020 from 2005 level.     

 

The many commitments that have been stated contained many variables and this will certainly come into play and have a significant impact in the negotiation.

 

Developed countries' commitments are always followed by conditions that developing countries also are obliged to commit to, to help reduce emissions.

 

Major developing countries such as China and India have announced their commitment to reduce carbon intensity, which is different from reducing carbon emissions.

 

Other countries, such as Australia, have made committments but still face resistance so it is passed in Parliament.    

 

From the beginning, the climate conference enjoys much media coverage and it seems that negotiators like the drama involved.

 

They will never end a negotiation on time, because last minute deals have to be worked out. It is true that the negotiation has always been highly politicized and many critical factors are involved and must be taken into account.

 

Political pressure, particularly at the domestic level, always comes into play at each climate negotiation, and this also dictates the final position of the negotiating parties.

 

The arguments presented at the negotiation, in fact, have their roots at the Stockholm Conference on
the Human Environment in 1972, and were later re-emphasized at the Conference on Environment
and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

 

Those two global conferences have set the tone for subsequent global negotiations on the issue of environment and sustainable development.

 

They have also brought a new agenda in the global deliberation that links the livelihood of humans with

environment protection. Since then, global awareness on the need to claim a healthy environment as a fundamental right of every individual and community evolved.

 

The Stockholm and Rio conferences have developed essential principles concerning global environment

deliberation. The rights to development and precautionary approaches are always utilized by developing and developed negotiators to debate and develop many global environmental agreements.

 

The principle as stipulated in both the Stockholm and Rio De Janeiro declarations, stated that, "States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction".

 

The developing countries, in this respect, require an assurance that any commitment they make will not sacrifice their rights to development.

 

This has been the core issue in the global environment negotiation, including at the climate change conference, with many political, economical, technical and scientific variability.

 

A breakthrough on this issue requires significant political commitments if not sacrifices for the world's politicians.

 

In many complicated climate negotiation proceedings, one aspect from Stockholm and Rio de Janeiro that was

left up in the air by negotiators was the fundamental right for people to live well in an environment that permits a life of dignity and well being for present and future generations.

 

The role of civil society, NGOs and the media is critical in asserting pressures concerning the above-mentioned rights to politicians and negotiators, as we might have seen in the Bali Climate Conference.

 

In front of a direct broadcast of electronic media to every household, those negotiators bowed to people pressure that led to a global consensus.

 

People pressure might not be present directly at the venue. However, it will certainly be accountable as the culprit that compromises the safety of fellow mankind if it keeps blocking the consensus.

 

On this note, we believe that the Copenhagen Conference will, as always, be a complex and intricate negotiation to be navigated.

 

The presence of world leaders in big numbers and the billions of eyes watching through the television screen should enable the conference to end with clear deals to move forward.

 

People around the world have to make it known that they are to claim the indispensable and fundamental right to a better livelihood and to live a life of dignity for present and future generations.
In Indonesia, the vibrant news media has to once again be directly involved. It will set the tone and network with their compatriots for the success of the global undertaking for the sake of everone, including journalists and their families.

 

This also reflects the implementation of Principle 10 of the Rio declaration, which has been accommodated in various national, regional and global instruments on the rights to be granted access to information and participation to determine policies that will impact significantly on the livelihood of present and future generations.

The writer is an Indonesian diplomat who participated in the previous climate negotiations and served as an advisor to the president of the COP 12 of UNFCCC and MOP 3 of Kyoto Protocol in Bali.
The opinions expressed are his own.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

ANTICORRUPTION ALL THE TIME

 

Newly elected leaders of countries internationally notorious for corruption as Indonesia often like to declare a war on corruption and express commitments to implement comprehensive reforms. However, many of the battles fail because they lack strong leadership to overcome bureaucratic resistance and inertia, and soon it is again business as usual with all kinds of graft practices, nepotism, patronage, embezzlement and bribes.

 

This, we think, should be the main theme and spirit of the big rallies to be conducted by anticorruption activists and organizations in Jakarta and other major cities on Wednesday to mark International Anti-Corruption Day.

 

The rallies should serve as a strong warning to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the entire nation that anticorruption reforms have a good chance of success when they are moved by a strong leader with the full support of civil society organizations, and are free from political manipulation.

 

The recent national uproar over what the public perceived to be a conspiracy to weaken the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and the tussle between the police and KPK again serve to warn us that the battle against graft is likely to fail if basic democratic institutions – from civil society, parliament to judiciary systems – do not function properly.

 

The parliamentary enactment of the corruption court law late in September is just one example of the strong resistance to the antigraft drive. The new law will not only remove many of the KPK's extraordinary powers such as the deployment of telecommunications wiretaps, intercepts and close-circuit camera surveillance to nab corruption.

 

The new legislation also threatens the integrity and competence of the KPK because it requires the establishment of Corruption Courts in all 33 provinces and in 490 regencies and cities within two years.  It will be rather impossible for the Supreme Court to prepare, within such a short time, so many career and ad hoc judges with the required high standards of competence and integrity.

 

It is because of the acute lack of competent and clean judges – in view of the corruption-tainted regular court system – that the Corruption Court was initially set up only in Jakarta. There are truly big risks that the hastily-established Corruption Courts outside Jakarta will perform badly and damage the public's trust in the KPK and the whole anticorruption campaign.

 

Corruption is too big a problem and too important an agenda to be left to the government alone, because corrupt practices sabotage development efforts, erode confidence in democratic institutions and the rule of law.

 

We hope business leaders, though not directly taking part in the rallies, also realize the importance of maintaining the spirit and drive against corruption because graft undermines public trust, which is essential for a functioning private sector, and creates an environment of uncertainty in business operations.

 

The vicious circle is simple: If businesspeople bribe once, they set a demand and if they don't get what they bribe for, they are in no position to complain as they themselves have broken the law. This vicious circle will continue as bribing businesspeople are vulnerable to blackmail and even threats.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

CENTURY SCANDAL: LESSON OR NO LESSON LEARNED?

 

GAUTAMA ADI KUSUMA

 

 

 

As the issue of Bank Century bailout becomes more heated, both on the street and a political level, it becomes more apparent that politicians and the public are more interested in political witch hunts, rather than solving the issue and shaping and improving the policy for the future.

 

The House of Representatives has agreed to produce a fact-finding commission. Yet, the tone and words of the politicians show that the issue is mainly on "who" is responsible for the bailout and how to make the people considered responsible, "pay" for their actions. Some have even talked about the possibility of change of the Indonesian political landscape as a result of the bailout.

 

The public voice has a similar tone. It is mainly interested in blaming some officials that it considers are the main culprits behind the bailout. The public want those behind the bailout to be removed, and even criminally charged for the decision. In short, the public and some politicians seem to be in sync; they want some heads on a platter, they want blood.

 

Yet, they lose the opportunity to address the root of the problem. I would argue that there are several core issues in the question of the bailout. Those issues are the lack of policy oversight in the banking and financial industry; the lack of bureaucratic capacity in the oversight of the issue; and the lack of accountability and transparency of decisions made in disbursing public finance.

 

The public finance to bailout Bank Century stems from the fear that there would be systemic fallout if the bank was not given a lifeline. The bank, in other words, is too big to fail. Nonetheless, as public officials have said, the bank had been involved in questionable or even probably fraudulent investment practices that lead to the huge loss.

 

Related to the issue is the bureaucratic capacity to catch the problem early, before huge bailouts need to be disbursed. Bureaucratic capacity for banking and financial industry oversight is an extremely crucial element in ensuring that the public is protected from future banking and financial industry collapse that would threaten Indonesia's economic stability and require future bailouts.

 

Another critical element that has ignited public outcry is the secrecy surrounding the bailout. It is important that public officials have the ability to listen to the public in disbursing such finance in the future, despite the will for a speedy decision making process. Otherwise, public suspicion would linger, costing public officials the "efficiency in decision making" they desire.

 

Changing the people considered as responsible for this debacle is merely a symbolic change for the whole issue. The problem will persist without addressing the core issue. And it is already apparent as Indonesia did not learn from the 1998 economic crisis that led to two major bank bailouts (BLBI).

 

It is probably a trend in Indonesian politics. We do not seem to learn from our history. Our "revolutionary" change has always been very symbolic, very political. The public seem to be quite content with the mere change in the people, even without addressing the policy issue.

 

This has always been the hallmark of revolutionary change. Revolutionary movements are focused on replacing the "evil" with good, without changing the institutional and systemic issues related to the problem. Sometimes, revolutionary movements only change an evil with another evil. Take Soeharto's example. While changing his regime was arguably important, the revolutionary nature of the movement left the essential issues, for example the issue of institutionalization of corruption, bureaucratic and democratic reform and the creation of an economic bubble in the disguise of progress, untouched. Who can honestly argue that those issues are now better than under Soeharto's regime?

 

The Century bailout is hopefully going to be the last example. While it is important to know who was responsible and hold those responsible accountable, it is more important to address why this bailout happened in the first place and how to prevent or minimize the possibility of another costly bailout needs to happen again in the future.

 

This political witch hunt is not going to solve and prevent problems in the future. Those who do not learn from history will make the same mistake. In this case, the mistake is to focus our energy on the politics of the question, leaving the regulatory and policy issues untouched. Leaving the foundations of the issues untouched would only make it possible for the problem to happen again in the future. Or maybe it is right when someone said Indonesia is a political country. We love delving into politics, but we rarely solve problems.

 

The writer is a PhD candidate at the Center for Public Administration and Policy, Office of Capital Assets and Financial Management, Virginia Tech.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

CLERICS ARE NO LONGER CULTURAL BROKERS

MUHAMMAD AS'AD

 

Yet more controversial news regarding the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) has surfaced. Several regional chairmen of MUI branches called for a ban on the movie 2012, the Hollywood blockbuster about doomsday occurring in December 2012 (The Jakarta Post, Nov. 18, 2009). They argued that 2012 would only imbue Muslims with negative teaching counter to Islamic teaching.

 

Therefore they recommended the government ban the movie. Not surprisingly, this statement received a gamut of responses. As we can see easily on the Internet, most people disagree with the MUI by stating that is inappropriate for the council to issue such a claim and forbid people from watching the movie. Some even speak harshly, judging the MUI's act as silly and irrational. Even though this is not an edict or recommendation, only a media statement from its chairmen, people still responded disapprovingly and rejected the argument.

 

It is interesting to see how the MUI condemns all and sundry so easily. This is not the first controversial stance taken by the MUI. Throughout the year, we have heard so much about them and their acts, from edicts concerning vote abstention to edicts outlawing begging on the streets of the capital.

 

However, these knee-jerk reactions by the MUI seem to be ineffective in convincing people. The response of the people is mostly the same. They ignore the edicts or statements. Many of them argue that it would be better for the MUI to issue an edict outlawing corruption, or even regarding the judicial corruption that has come to the public fore recently in the antigraft commission saga.

 

This fact, when people start to ignore the MUI and even criticize their notions, implies a shift in terms of the position of the clerics among the Indonesian people. Before, mostly in the Soeharto era, clerics were among the most prominent stakeholders in society. Geertz called them cultural brokers (1960). By this, he explained that clerics (he used the term Kiai) stood guard over the crucial junctures of synapses of relationships that connect the local system to the larger whole.

 

This function emerged at that time because most of society was not well educated yet. Most people were illiterate and lived in rural areas. The central position of the clerics among the people put them in an important role, especially with regard to interpreting information from the outside world. In this situation, the people relied upon the authority of the clerics to decide what was appropriate and what was not. Not only were the clerics relied upon by the people in terms of religious matters, but also on social and political issues.

 

Their second function was born from the strong restriction of the Soeharto regime on how much information could reach the people. This policy was created by the government to attain national stability without any opposition. Furthermore, the MUI as a government institution was in support of this policy and once again clerics became the cultural brokers for the government's interests. The indication can be seen in several MUI edicts and recommendations that authenticated Soeharto policy.

 

Nonetheless, this condition changed after Soeharto's fall in 1998. The government was not strong enough compared to previously during the authoritarian regime of Soeharto. The public arena was opened and freedom of speech was guaranteed. The number of people who received an education increased. As a result, they are now able to read and obtain more and more knowledge. On the other hand, the role of the media, which was restricted under the Soeharto regime, is now more accessible. And with the widespread reach of the Internet, people can access any information they want. It can be said that no one is able to restrict any information reaching the people.

 

Moreover, this changing situation looks set to influence the role of clerics as cultural brokers. People no longer believe they need brokers to interpret information. We can see this trend from the public's rejection of the MUI's call for a ban on 2012. This rejection confirms that the people are now smart enough, especially in deciding what is right and what is wrong, including in religious matters.

 

For them, 2012 is not a big deal that can undermine their faith. It is just mindless entertainment that is forgotten after the movie finishes. And for my own experience after watching the movie, it is not centered on the Mayan doomsday prophecy; it is just a visual effects show, just as any other Hollywood movies that display visual effects, such as Armageddon in 1998 or Transformers in 2007.

 

The writer is a graduate of IAIN Surabaya and a master's degree student at Leiden University, the Netherlands

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

INCOME-FUELED GROWTH

 

Efforts to boost income growth are certainly needed as China tries hard to make domestic consumption a new growth engine. But no less important are redistribution efforts to enhance the purchasing power of the many low-income families.

 

The decision that Chinese authorities made at the recent Central Economic Work Conference to strengthen income redistribution next year has obviously struck a chord in the hearts of the public.

 

Even the worst global recession in several decades has not stopped the continuous income growth that Chinese people have been enjoying over the past three decades.

 

Official statistics show that real urban household disposable income expanded by 10.5 percent in the first three quarters of this year while real rural household cash income rose 8.5 percent during the period.

 

Such income growth must have contributed considerably to the country's broad-based pickup in consumer spending. Retail sales increased by 17 percent in real terms, pushing up the country's gross domestic product growth by 4 percentage points.

 

However, in spite of the greater role domestic consumption played in stoking economic growth, consumer-led demand is still nowhere near enough to make up for declining exports this year, not to mention picking up the potential slack if the country reduces its dependence on investment for growth.

 

Since everyone knows that one cannot make bricks without straw, it is easy for Chinese policymakers to reach a consensus on the need to increase household incomes.

 

But the country's fairly high savings ratio indicates that boosting domestic consumption is not all about keeping raising incomes.

 

In addition to an inadequate social welfare net that has long depressed consumption, the widening income gap has emerged as an increasingly big consumption restraint.

 

The meeting, which is held once a year in Beijing to set the tone for economic development for the next year, emphasized that a good balance should be kept in maintaining a relatively fast and stable economic growth, economic restructuring and dealing with predicted inflation next year.

 

The message from top Chinese officials is encouraging. They have not only recognized the urgency of income redistribution, but also decided to address the problem.

 

To lower the country's savings ratio to help ease global imbalances, policymakers should take measures to distribute more corporate earnings, which are the main driver of the nation's increased savings, to individuals.

 

To narrow the income gap, the country may need to fine tune its tax and fiscal policies in favor of low-income households.

 

The government is yet to give details on how it plans to encourage consumer-led growth via income redistribution. Whatever they are, the earlier they come, the better they will serve the people and the economy.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

LESSONS FROM STAMPEDE

 

We feel deeply sorry for the death of eight students in a stampede on Monday night at a middle school in the city of Xiangxiang, Central China's Hunan province. There is nothing we can do to bring back the lost lives, but there is something we can and must do to prevent similar disasters.

 

There is, of course, a gnawing feeling of what-ifs: What if the staircase of the school building were built much wider? The building does have three other staircases but the students swarmed through this one simply because it was raining outside and it was the nearest to their dorms. What if teachers had paid enough attention to the safety of students and supervised the evacuation when it was raining hard? What if the students had received enough training for evacuating a building in an emergency?

 

In the design of school buildings, particular attention must be paid to the safe evacuation of students in an emergency. In the several school stampedes that have taken place in the past couple of years, narrow staircases were seen as the direct culprit. An investigation is needed to find out whether staircases in all school buildings are safe enough for the evacuation of students.

 

If classes are organized in the evening for students to study on their own in school buildings, their evacuation from the building must be well organized by teachers on duty. If only students in this school had been prepared to leave the building in an orderly manner, such a tragedy could have never occurred.

 

An investigation into this disaster should find out whether any teacher was meant to be on duty. If so, where was the teacher when the accident took place? If the teacher was not there, the responsible leader must be punished for dereliction of duty.

 

They could learn from a school headmaster in Sichuan province who ensured that students were trained to evacuate the school building in a safe and efficient manner in an emergency. The regular training paid off. Not a single student in the school was even injured in the deadly earthquake that shook the province in May last year.

 

Last but not the least, teachers and parents have the obligation to teach their students and children survival skills during an emergency. Education in this regard needs to be made compulsory for primary and middle school students.

 

Hopefully, this tragedy will be a lesson that other schools can learn from and do what they need to make their schools safe.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

LOW-CARBON INNOVATION VERSUS TRADE WAR

BY DENNIS PAMLIN (CHINA DAILY)

The UN General Assembly and the G20 in Pittsburgh marked a new era. At both meetings, President Hu Jintao presented China's climate policy and put it in a global context with a clear and much-needed message that global collaboration is necessary.

 

Over the last weeks trade has emerged as a major challenge in global climate negotiations. Countries like the US and France have started discussing ways to impose tax on imported products that have been made using a lot of CO2. Even though not explicit, it shows that China is one of their main targets.

 

This trend is dangerous and can easily result in protectionism and trade wars. It is therefore important to explore possible ways forward that link trade and reduced CO2 emissions in a way that they support each other. China has a great opportunity to turn this potential conflict into increased cooperation. Building on the collaboration message, China has an opportunity to present concrete suggestions for low-carbon development.

 

The biggest problem with the current discussion is probably not the possibility of a trade war in itself, even if that would be a serious problem, it is the fact that the current discussions have focused on conflicts and problems. What is needed instead is collaboration and focus on solutions.

 

The current approach of countries such as the US and France is based on two assumptions. First, that the focus should be on reducing emissions from the big polluting companies that are creating the problem. Second, that countries should try to reduce their own emissions as little as possible and get others to reduce as much as possible without collaboration. Both should be challenged, and the government and companies in China can play an important role here.

 

The problem approach with focus on the big emitters has dominated global climate negotiations since the Kyoto Protocol. It is time to move away from a situation where all counties are trying to protect their dirty industries.

 

China could help to shift the focus from big emitters to also include the new solutions providers. With companies such as Suntech, Himin Group, China Mobile and Broad, China is well positioned to make the case for policies that support solutions, not just try to reduce the problems. Instead of a focus on how to deal with carbon intensive trade we could have a discussion on how export of low-carbon solutions should be encouraged.

 

A solution initiative could include incentives to support global trade that would enable the world's cities to build buildings that are net producers of renewable energy, and support an accelerated uptake of electric cars that in turn are supported by renewable energy and other solutions, which help reduce the need for fossil fuels. A special focus should be given to transformative solutions that can help reduce emissions by 90 percent or more, such as teleworking, smart grids, smart buildings and e-paper.

 

China could propose initiatives to encourage trade and investment in low-carbon solutions. China could also suggest that a system is created where solutions-providing companies can report their contribution to reduced emission through their products and services. Today, the focus is on how much polluting companies are emitting, but in the future the focus should shift to how much the solutions-providing companies are helping reduce emissions.

 

The second assumption is that negotiations should continue to only focus on individual countries and how they can reduce their emissions. This approach is problematic from two perspectives. First, because it undermines smart collaboration and second because it ignores the fact that the most important question is how we can provide low-carbon lifestyles. The solutions that are needed must be developed through international collaboration, and countries, companies, universities and cities must come together to solve the climate crisis.

 

It is important to remember that the main problem is the high-carbon lifestyles in Western counties. What the world needs is solutions that can provide a high quality of life with low emissions. Instead of focusing on where the emissions happen today, China can help shift the focus to the need for low-carbon lifestyles.

 

China could initiate key collaborations in areas such as the creation of a global virtual meeting infrastructure, an initiative for buildings that are net producers of renewable energy, and software for smart city planning. China could collect a number of such ideas and present a global low-carbon city development initiative. This would focus on collaboration between countries and cities around the world and allow solutions-based companies to implement their best ideas.

 

The world really needs China to step forward and turn the current problem into an opportunity and the emerging conflict into increased collaboration. By putting forward solutions- and collaboration-based proposals the Chinese government would not only avoid a difficult situation, but also get solutions-providing companies, both in China and abroad, the kind of recognition that they deserve.

 

The author is adviser to various companies, governments and NGOs.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

OBAMA'S AFGHANISTAN PLAN FRAUGHT WITH RISKS

BY MA CHAO (CHINA DAILY)

 

The history of wars shows it is an established strategy to intensify military action before achieving a decent withdrawal. Hence, there is nothing new in US President Barack Obama's Afghan plan to deploy 30,000 additional soldiers by next summer. What is new and has created doubts in the US as well as elsewhere in the world is how effective will the strategy prove.

 

Obama's plan, discussed and drawn over months, is a product of conflicting opinions and interests within the US, says Zhang Xiaodong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It reflects not only the situation on the battlefields in the Hindu Kush, but also the struggles in US domestic politics.

 

Mounting Taliban attacks prompted the Pentagon to ask for more troops, to which the president agreed. But to placate the American public, frustrated and demoralized by eight years of a fruitless war, he had to announce that the US would begin withdrawing its troops in July 2011.

 

By issuing a date for scaling down its military presence in Afghanistan Obama has risked undermining the effectiveness of the surge in troops. Realizing that the maximum deployment of US forces, to reach 100,000 after the reinforcements, will at best last a year, the Taliban could adopt a hit-and-run strategy, avoid direct showdown with the Americans.

 

The fact that Taliban fighters can cross the Afghan-Pakistani border freely makes the situation even more complex, says Ma Xiaolin, a commentator on international affairs and the president of www.blshe.com. Taliban fighters could sneak into Pakistan and wait for the US withdrawal before launching a major attack against the Afghan government forces. So without a synchronized cooperation from Pakistan, the surge in US troops could be in vain.

 

Though Obama has promised a strategy that "works on both sides of the border" and closer coordination with Pakistan, his planned date of pullback may make Pakistan hedge its bets on fighting the Taliban. Afghan and Pakistani officials have already expressed concern over the US withdrawal, which means the prospects of cooperation may not be very promising.

 

To reassure US allies as well as opposition at home, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that July 2011 would be the "beginning, not the end" of the withdrawal, saying that only "some small number will begin to withdraw at that time". But his words could make Obama's plan look more ambiguous, and perplex US allies in Kabul and Islamabad.

 

The stabilization of security in Afghanistan would eventually depend on a political solution, Zhang and Ma say. Military actions alone won't work. The Taliban movement is rooted in the tribal areas and partly represents the political clouts and interests of the Pashtuns, Afghanistan's largest ethnic group. Talking with the Taliban, at least its relatively moderate wings, is crucial for a sustainable political solution.

 

Obama seems to have realized that it would be difficult for the US to eliminate the Taliban, and hence seeks to confine its goals to "disrupting, dismantling and defeating Al-Qaida and its extremist allies". It indicates that the US is going to fight the Taliban hardliners who are closely linked to Al-Qaida, while keeping open the option of negotiating with its moderate wings.

Ma believes military actions will help reach a political solution. With the substantial reinforcement, the US is seeking to crush the belligerent elements in the Taliban on the battlefield, divide the group, force the moderate wings to talk and then use its victories to pressure them at the negotiation table.

 

But the new US strategy is fraught with risks because even Taliban hardliners could pretend to be moderates and try to negotiate a political agreement, only to regain political control once the American troops withdraw.

The strategy incorporates schemes to bolster the civilian and the military apparatus of the Hamid Karzai government, such as pairing similar number of Afghan army personnel with US troops to prepare them for the challenge ahead. Though the schemes sound good, people have reason to doubt whether the US could achieve its goal and hand over the responsibility to the Afghan government, which has been marred by corruption, cronyism and incompetence. We should know that not a single central government has effectively ruled over the entire territory of Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion three decades ago.

 

Fu Xiaoqiang, a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, says it will be a long and daunting task for the Afghan government to build a competent national army to keep the Taliban at bay and take over security from US forces. Hence, even after July 2011, we cannot expect large contingents of US forces to withdraw from Afghanistan. The majority may stay back and fight for a long time.

 

But that will be a heavy burden on the US government, which is likely to have a $1.8-trillion budget deficit next year and public debts that are almost equal to its GDP.

 

Obama has to do something on Afghanistan's economic front, too. Zhang says it is an urgent task to lessen the Afghan economy's dependence, especially in the outlying regions, on poppy cultivation. Jobs have to be created. Only if there is an improvement in welfare will the Karzai government win the popular support of the people, which is a prerequisite for the US handover.

 

Economic development in the tribal areas could dent the support for the Taliban there. Ma says many youths have joined the Taliban mainly for money. Otherwise they would have no means to feed themselves. Sometimes, Taliban fighters get a higher pay than even Afghan army personnel, he says. If decent and stable jobs were available, many of them would not have joined the Taliban.

 

It is still unclear, however, whether the US will be able to foot the bills for Afghanistan's economic reconstruction and development.

 

The surge in troops may cost $30 billion next year alone, and hence it will be a big problem for the US to raise its spending.

 

Though Obama is an excellent orator, the effectiveness of his plan is in doubt. As a patchwork seeking to please every stakeholder, both at home and abroad, it might prove futile and end up satisfying nobody, expect the Taliban.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

IMPROVING LIVELIHOOD IS THE FOCUS

BY YI XIANRONG (CHINA DAILY)

 

The annual Central Economic Work Conference that concluded on Monday reaffirmed the need to maintain economic growth as the country's main goal next year.

 

To reach the target against the backdrop of the global economic slowdown, the highest-level economic decision-making conference vowed to boost domestic demand, consumer-led demand in particular, and improve people's livelihoods as one of the main means of stimulating economic development.

 

Amidst the gloomy external economic environment, the Chinese government made economic growth the top priority and launched a raft of economic stimulus packages, which lifted consumer confidence, stabilized market expectations and promoted much-needed growth. They also played a positive role in helping the country press ahead with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary polices.

 

Nevertheless, such emergency measures during a major crisis have also left the country's long-term economic development faced with enormous risks and precarious factors.

 

Theoretically, the main aim of a country's economic development should be to improve the living conditions and welfare of its people. Or else, the country's economic activities would be largely founded on a short-sighted perception and result in an exhaustive use of its limited resources and low-efficiency economic operations, which would certainly be unfavorable to the long-term economic development and social stability.

 

Take the real estate market as an example. The aim of the sector's development, for any government, should be to improve people's housing conditions. However, in China, housing has turned speculative. Should homes be used as a tool to make money instead of being places to live in, the nature of the real estate market as a means to improve people's livelihood would fundamentally change.

 

Once it becomes a target of investment and speculation, house prices will be pushed sky high by profiteering capital. It is, indeed, true that the rapid rise in house prices help boost the profits of real estate developers, local revenues and the scale of credit by commercial banks. Due to its propulsive role, a lot of other industries will also get a big boost. Consequently, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will expand. However, such a housing market boom runs counter to the country's original aspiration to develop the real estate market in order to improve people's standard of living. Also, economic growth mainly driven by a speculative real estate market is not expected to last long.

 

At a recent Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Political Bureau meeting, the Party authorities vowed to raise the quality and efficiency of the country's economic growth and focus on improving people's livelihood, and maintaining social harmony and stability. An explicit message from the meeting is that the authorities have realized that GDP and lending expansion should not be taken as the only measurement of the country's economic growth, and that the government should take into account the improvement of ordinary people's living conditions and balanced development between the country's short- and long-term goals when assessing national economic growth. The authorities clearly signaled that the country would work harder to adjust its long-standing GDP-oriented economic structure and try to strike a balance between investment, consumption and exports, and between different industries. An economic development model that does not fully appreciate quality would fail to grow healthily, and worse, waste resources and cause environmental pollution. The commitment to improve people's livelihood means that the government will do more in areas closely related with people's livelihood, such as education, labor, healthcare, pension and housing.

 

The government has increased a lot of input in the country's long-derided educational, medical care and housing systems in recent years, especially following the launch of the $586-billion stimulus package late last year. However, that is still short of people's expectations, largely because of the ever-widening income gap between the rich and poor, as reflected not only in the sluggish income growth of middle- and low-income people, but also in the low ratio of workers' income in the country's wealth distribution. Such kind of wealth composition has been the main reason behind the country's failure to stimulate domestic demand although a series of policies and measures have been adopted.

 

When it comes to the housing market, which is most closely linked to ordinary people's livelihood, the soaring prices have shut out many common salary earners, especially low- and middle-income groups. More and more people have come to realize that the country's economic growth, no matter how fast, is meaningless if it is achieved at the expense of the interests of the overwhelming majority of people.

 

That could explain why both the recent CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting and the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference put the emphasis on improving people's livelihood and boosting the demand of ordinary people.

 

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

BEING KNOWLEDGEABLE ≠ BEING CLEAN

BY ZHU YUAN (CHINA DAILY)

What do corrupt officials do when they end up behind bars? Maybe write books if the conditions are right. Quite a number of them have had their books published even while serving their terms.

 

Zhang Erjiang, former Party secretary of the city of Tianmen in Hubei province, who was sentenced to 15 years in jail for embezzling public money and accepting bribes in 2002, has had four books published since then. Zhou Jiugeng, a former bureau chief who was notorious for smoking cigarettes of a prohibitively expensive brand and was sentenced to 11 years, is reported to be progressing well with his novel in jail.

 

Apart from one former official who has written a book about how high the cost is for being corrupt, none has written anything to suggest they repent of the crimes they committed in their positions. The four books by Zhang Erjiang are about ancient Chinese literature; some have written novels and others on a subject they are familiar with.

 

The message is that almost all of them are well-educated. This reminds me of the connection between knowledge and power: In the late 1970s, Francis Bacon's quote "knowledge is power" was very popular when national college entrance examinations were restarted after being suspended for a decade. And placing well-educated people in top positions was a priority and it was taken for granted at the time that power in the hands of knowledgeable people would be used to better the interests of the people and the country.

 

There is nothing wrong with the hypothesis. But knowledge can be a double-edged sword when it comes to the use of power. We have numerous lessons from ancient dynasties, when officials were selected through imperial examinations. There were hardly any court or local officials who were not familiar with classics such as The Analects by Confucius. Yet, corrupt officials were everywhere in every ancient dynasty. Some of the notoriously corrupt officials in history were at the same time well-known calligraphers.

 

Bacon is right that knowledge is power. But such power can be abused. If that is the case, an illiterate person with enough common sense might cause much less damage to the interests of the public than a well-educated person in the same official position.

 

Of course, I do not mean that we should place barely literate people in public positions. But it would be disastrous to only over-emphasize the level of education a person has without giving enough consideration to his or her moral character while recruiting officials. Even if knowledgeable people of integrity are placed in public positions, they may turn out to be corrupt if they are not under effective supervision.

 

That only one of the corrupt officials who have written books behind bars has ever repented of the crimes he has committed by writing a book sends a dangerous message: Very few of them harbor a guilty conscience, or at least, give that impression. Maybe they believe that they were caught simply because they were unlucky. Maybe they know that many more "lucky" ones are still grabbing as much money as they can by abusing their power. So why should they repent of what they have done?

Most of them spend their own money having their books published. This suggests that they do find it an opportunity to convince the public of their capability. By doing so, they are also paving the way for new careers after being released from prison. Xu Enxing, who used to be Party secretary of Henan Financial College and was sentenced to six years for accepting bribes in 2004, has published four books on finance and economics. And it is reported that he has already been invited to work for securities companies after being released.

For one thing, receiving a good education and being knowledgeable has little to do with being an honest and upright official. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Whether an official is corrupt or not depends on how much opportunity there is for him or her to do so. So, how knowledgeable an official is should not be a criterion linked to the quality of governance.

 

E-mail: zhuyuan@chinadaily.com.cn

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

BALANCING ACT FOR POST-CRISIS ERA

BY LIU YUHUI (CHINA DAILY)

 

The global economy has shown signs of shaking off the prolonged downturn and taking a turn for the better following a raft of stimulus packages unveiled by various governments over the past year.

 

The US, Japanese and European economies, which staggered under the weight of the worst global financial crisis in decades, have regained ground. Meanwhile, some emerging economies, especially China and India, have enjoyed comparatively rapid economic growth.

 

However, the robust price rebound in the capital and real estate markets and bulk commodities around the world, especially in emerging markets, has caused widespread concerns over new property bubbles. Against this backdrop, some countries, such as Israel, Australia and Norway, have chosen to raise interest rates to mitigate growing inflation pressures. Such policy revisions have engendered deep concerns over whether other countries will follow suit and exit from their easy monetary polices.

 

In the current crisis, countries face a dilemma while formulating macroeconomic policies: Whether they should continue embracing an expansive fiscal policy or tighten it. If the current easy monetary policies were continued, inflation fears could trigger new economic risks. However, an abrupt end to the relaxed policies and resorting to tightening economic tools would risk undermining their fragile economic recovery. Striking a delicate balance between the current large-scale economic stimulus packages and efforts to rein in fast rises in property prices remains a big headache to decision makers of all countries involved.

 

Experience indicates that it is very difficult to perform such a balancing act between the two economic tools. The underlying reason is largely decided by the nature of the economic crisis caused by overproduction. At a time of crisis, consumption demand plunges suddenly with the busting of property bubbles. The well-developed credit- and securities-founded economic model would easily cause the negative impact produced by contracted currency supply, income and liquidity to quickly spread to all economic spheres. As a result, an economic slump would follow.

 

To restore the delicate supply-demand balance, a country should either reorganize its supply structure and reduce production or inject new liquidity into its deflationary economy. Reducing production means a painful process which results in worse deflation and more unemployment. But following these throes are always long-term economic rejuvenation and prosperity as well as the creation of a new and sustainable economic growth model.

 

On the other hand, injection of liquidity to expand credit and payment ability to absorb overproduction, as Keynesianism advocates, leaves bigger risks to the future. Whether such a stimulation tool reactivates a good economic balance between investment, and consumption and income growth remains in question. No economics faction in the world, including Keynesians, believes monetary stimulation serves as an effective long-term tool to boost economic development.

 

Experience also indicates that a country's currency policy alone remains impotent in tackling the negative impact caused by surging property bubbles and inflation. That is because any economic rebound pushes property prices up and forms new bubbles. As a result, the government and public agencies have to shoulder an enormous deficit and debt. Consequently, heavy taxes are likely to be levied on enterprises, which would result in a decreased production and put employment and income growth at stake.

To completely avoid such an intractable economic crisis, an intensive development model that values economic quality more than quantity should be created. It should aim at adjusting a country's extant resources distribution structure and giving birth to a new and innovative wealth producing formula.

 

To help the world extricate itself from the lingering economic crisis, the United States, as the world's largest economy, should re-industrialize, which does not mean the resumption of the traditional manufacturing sector, but choosing to develop a low-carbon economic model based on pharmaceutical manufacturing, alternative energy, and an energy-friendly auto manufacturing industry. The US should try to restore its economic vitality through economic restructuring, innovation and re-investment in a bid to provide a new engine for the next round of global economic growth.

 

As the world's third largest, and fastest-growing, economy, China should grab the opportunity presented by the changed global economic order and step up reform of its political and economic systems. Great efforts should be made to revise the country's long-controversial wealth distribution structure between the government, enterprises and residents to tap depressed domestic demand. Also, the country should take some forceful and effective measure to reduce industrial monopoly, relax government restrictions on economic activities and reduce domestic deposits to push for a demand-dominated economic transformation.

 

The author is director of the Center for Chinese Economic Evaluation at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

CATCHING UP WITH AND SURPASSING GUINEA

BY YULIA LATYNINA

 

What a great country Guinea is!

 

Guinean President Moussa Dadis Camara was shot in the head by his military aide and chief of the presidential guard, Aboubacar "Toumba" Diakite. Shooting an unarmed person is not usually a complicated affair, but he bungled the job because Diakite's only previous experience was in mowing down peaceful demonstrators. That is, instead of killing the president, he only wounded him. This raises obvious questions about the man's qualifications to lead the country's security forces.

 

After the failed assassination attempt, Diakite fled the compound. How the president's bodyguards failed to seize him is anybody's guess. Machine gun-toting soldiers are patrolling the streets in search of the outlaw, but he has eluded capture. This raises even more concerns about the effectiveness of the country's security forces.

 

Camara was flown to a hospital in Morocco for treatment. By leaving the country at this risky moment, he runs a very real risk of being overthrown. This clearly does not speak very well about the quality of Guinea's medical care.

 

Russia is not Guinea, of course, but I have the feeling that it will be soon.

 

Judge for yourself. Sergei Magnitsky, a 37-year-old lawyer who was working on the Hermitage Capital Management case, died Nov. 16 in a Moscow prison. This is how he died: Browder accused senior Interior Ministry officials of stealing more than $230 million and ordered Magnitsky to blow the whistle on the crooks. Magnitsky subsequently was arrested on charges that he helped Browder's investment fund evade more than $3.25 million in taxes. While being held in pretrial detention at Moscow's notorious Butyrsky prison, Magnitsky died after he was denied medication for pancreas problems.

 

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in an Nov. 27 interview in France that he does not know what "the lawyer" (refusing to refer to Magnitsky by name) was imprisoned for. Putin did add, however, that since Magnitsky had been arrested, there had to have been a good reason for it.

 

Move over, Lieutenant Diakite — It looks like you've got company!

 

The prosecutor general is demanding that Britain extradite Yevgeny Chichvarkin, former head of Yevroset, who quarreled with the management of a certain organization "K." Meanwhile, a video has come to light titled "Thugs from the K Bureau." It records a certain Major Filippov — who was born in 1974 and who looks like a white version of Diakitt — being arrested as he takes a $200,000 bribe that he insists was meant for his boss, Groshev.

 

Fillipov, our fearless 35-year-old crime fighter, does not go into battle unequipped. He has a black Mercedes-Benz Gelandewagen, 30,000 euros ($44,500) in addition to the $200,000, three superelite Vertu cell phones, credit cards from a few different banks and his K employee identification papers. The only attribute that looks comically out of place is a hokey brass keychain with the Interior Ministry's "MID" initials stamped on its face.

Now the London court is reviewing that video footage, and the Russian prosecutors must somehow convince the Brits that the K organization did not try to extort money from Chichvarkin and that his refusal to pay was not the reason for all of his current troubles.  

 

I wonder what Guinean President Camara tells his people when he gives a televised address? I think he tells them that Guinea needs to modernize and that the United States is their greatest national security threat.

 

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

KEEPING THE 'R' WHERE IT BELONGS IN BRIC

BY MARTIN GILMAN

 

Whether we find it a useful characterization or not, we seem to be stuck with the acronym of BRIC ever since Goldman Sachs first mooted that sequence of letters in 2001. The key idea was that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China was such that they could become four of the most dominant economies by 2050. Although the very idea seemed incongruous at the time, the name stuck.

 

Each of the four countries has demonstrated that they, along with other emerging market economies, could indeed come to challenge the pre-eminence of the advanced countries by midcentury, if not before. Although the BRICs were unable to decouple from the fallout of the international crisis, they have shown resilience. Even Russia, the worst affected this year, appears to be poised for a strong recovery in 2010, while the advanced economies will still be languishing.

 

Trying to compare countries in terms of rankings is a mug's game. Arguments and data can always be aligned to confirm a predetermined view. History is rife with examples of this. Unfortunately, there has been an onslaught of articles explaining why Russia should not be included in BRIC — the most recent examples by economists Nouriel Roubini and Anders Åslund — or that Brazil is the up and coming star of the BRICs with Russia being the outlier. For example, a recent issue of The Economist observed, "Sometime in the decade after 2014 — rather sooner than Goldman Sachs envisaged — Brazil is likely to become the world's fifth-largest economy," behind only the United States, China, Japan and India. Russia was pointedly not even mentioned.

 

Of course, Brazil has come a long way and deserves to be commended. At the same time, I would suggest that it is not Russia that is the outlier among the BRIC countries. At least when it comes to economic dynamism, that accolade should go to none other than Brazil.

 

While all of the BRICs have had their problems, it is clear that Brazil — not Russia — has been the outlier and is likely to remain that way for some time to come. But a closer look is warranted. Using 2000 as a base — starting just after the major crises in Russia in 1998 and in Brazil at the beginning of 1999 and including estimates for 2009 — Russia's real gross domestic product grew at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent, considerably less than that of India and China. Over that period, the Brazilian economy did manage to grow slightly faster than advanced countries, but still only chalked up a rate of 3.2 percent.

 

Why does this surprising disparity arise? Perhaps there is no simple explanation, but it seems likely that Brazil lagged behind for a fairly basic reason: low savings and low investment. Since 1995, China has saved 42 percent of its GDP and invested 39 percent annually. India saved 26 percent and invested 28 percent. Over the same time period, Russia saved 30 percent and invested 22 percent, while in Brazil the corresponding average figures were a more anemic 17 percent of GDP in each case, a level below that in most advanced economies. This gives Brazil a higher real cost of capital compared with its BRIC colleagues and makes it more difficult to generate anywhere near the same headline growth.

 

Of course, it could be argued that Russia in particular used more leverage and foreign inflows to generate its outsized growth returns, which helps explain the much sharper contraction this year, but it doesn't really come close to erasing the cumulative gap between the two economies. In any case, growing indications point to a faster real and nominal recovery in Russia in 2010.

 

Brazil is an outlier in other ways. Many in Russia are, or should be, embarrassed that the country is in the No. 120 spot in the World Bank's annual "Doing Business for 2010," but Brazil comes in with an even more embarrassing No. 129. Russia also has stronger public finances, a stronger balance of payments, larger external reserves and lower public debt than Brazil. It is also far richer in terms of per capita income than Brazil.

 

How does this translate into mid-term performance? International Monetary Fund projections show Brazil with a respectable 3.7 percent annual growth by 2014, visibly below the 5 percent figure for Russia, not to mention 8.1 percent in India and roughly 9.5 percent in China. And the key drag remains the low level of domestic savings in Brazil, which ran about 19 percent of GDP in 2008.

 

Perhaps through currency appreciation against the dollar, the Brazilian economy could outperform on the nominal side. But with the Brazilian real already as strong as it is today and commodity prices still very buoyant compared with the average from 2003 to 2007, it would be surprising if Brazil generated the same kind of nominal dollar gains that it had over the previous five years. This is also true for Russia, but Russia is probably no worse off in this regard. Although from a dollar GDP level, Russia is about 18 percent below Brazil's in 2009 (as a result of the 35 percent devaluation against the dollar a year ago), the latest IMF "World Economic Outlook" forecasts show Russia overtaking Brazil by 2014 and presumably continuing to move ahead in the second half of the decade. Based upon purchasing power parity valuation of GDP, Russia's GDP remains higher than Brazil's even in 2009 and even more going forward.

 

So it is interesting that with all of the attention showered on Brazil, its economic performance has been relatively sluggish. This is not to denigrate the substantial achievements made by Brazil in absolute terms in raising its standard of living (although it has much greater income inequality than Russia as indicated by its Gini coefficient), but also relative to other countries.

 

Looking at the facts from a macroeconomic perspective, it seems that Russia's performance has in some ways been more impressive. And looking forward over the next few years, Russia is poised for significantly higher growth. But for Russia to become a global growth engine, it needs to cut excessive and inefficient spending, thereby reducing inflation and interest rates. This, in turn, will enable a more robust recovery to ensue. To be sustainable, it needs to address the reality and reputation of corruption and an arbitrary legal regime.

 

Still, by about 2020, there is a greater likelihood that Russia will be in third place in terms of nominal GDP among the BRICs, with Brazil being the outlier. Of course, conventional wisdom does not appreciate when its underlying assumptions are challenged. In this case, it involves just an innocent game of projected rankings in a world where much can change in the next 10 years. To the extent, however, that real savings and investment are allocated based upon these perceptions, the game becomes more serious. The conventional wisdom needs to be reconsidered.

 

Martin Gilman, former senior representative of the International Monetary Fund in Russia, is a professor at the Higher School of Economics.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

A WINDOW FOR DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS

BY JAMES BEADLE

 

With the equity market up by about 125 percent, 2009 has been an excellent year for Russia investors. Anyone willing to forget that the RTS Index lost $140 billion of market capitalization in 2008 will be more than happy with the $70 billion that it has gained this year. Blessed with short memories, investment management professionals feel able to look their clients in the eye once more and talk about more profits to come.

 

The general consensus among optimists is that strong earnings, economic growth and a new market-oriented approach will bring healthy gains in 2010. Benchmark indexes may not return to their highs, but they will put in healthy, double-digit gains. Even the more skeptical and pragmatic of investment managers are positive about prospects for the coming year.

 

The upside case has two distinct themes. The first is macro-based. Oil will remain at healthy levels, the economy will recover, inflation will retreat, and capital will pour back into ruble assets. The second is domestic change. Shocked by the economy's failure, the Kremlin has learned its lesson and will adopt a reformist strategy, as propagated by President Dmitry Medvedev. The combination of an investor-friendly attitude and a large resource-backed economy will lure capital inflows, Russia will finally join the World Trade Organization, corruption will actually fall, and economic reform will move the nation away from commodity dependency.

 

But since old Russia hands need little reminding of the nation's upside potential, let's take a closer look at the downside threats. Since Russia is first and foremost a global macro play, the international outlook remains every investor's primary concern. Russia cannot out-perform without a benign global backdrop, and this is the largest risk for the country.

 

This year's recovery in asset prices is tied directly to monetary policy in the West. Although government stimulus is certainly contributing to the fragile economic growth today, it was the slashing of real interest rates to protect household net worth by forcing money back into risky assets that really pulled markets out of the abyss.

 

This policy represents the biggest economic experiment in capitalist history. If asset prices can go high enough and stay there long enough, then consumption will return. There is a long way to go, but so far the central banks are rightly pleased with their progress, and asset prices have responded positively, as expected.

 

But economic recoveries remain fragile and are notably dependent on fiscal support. The problem is that these levels of government spending cannot be sustained, and so far there is little sign that private sectors are ready to take up the slack. Indeed, the West appears to be heading for a frugal Christmas.

 

This great capitalist experiment will continue throughout 2010. But today, the dichotomy between asset prices and economic fundamentals is wide. Despite the tightness of real interest rates, there is a significant risk of asset prices sliding back toward economic fundamentals in the coming months. Such a correction would most likely be a buying opportunity as loose monetary policy will ultimately prevail. But prudent investors would be well advised not to chase overbought assets in the near term.

 

Surprisingly for a nation so renowned for investor risk, Russia's domestic outlook is more stable for 2010. What

real improvements will we see? Sales of state assets will mark an end to government expansion into the private sector, if not notably reducing its size. Sales of debt on international markets will encourage a longer-term awareness of investor interests and concerns. There is also a real chance of WTO accession, which will prove a game-changer for many inefficient outdated sectors as foreign investment incentives will soar and red tape will get sliced.

 

After years of arrogant commodity-fueled wealth, the political elite finally seem to understand that Russia's economy lacks the diversity and openness necessary for sustainable growth. The president's team is reassuringly liberal — in the Russian sense of the term "liberal," meaning at a minimum that it recognizes that Russia needs to integrate with the global economy. After years of anti-Western and abrasive economic policy, the potential for progress is genuine. Russia cannot easily do worse than it has in recent years, and small changes will mean real improvements.

 

But investors focused on this theme would do well to remember Russia's history. Repeated efforts at reform

over the centuries have fallen short of expectation. Just like in the global economy, there is a danger that optimistic expectations will exceed real world change. The government's pro-market investment story will gloss over key issues. It is true that the legal framework can be greatly improved, but the real problem is implementation. Over the last eight years, the bureaucracy has re-emerged from the chaos of the 1990s and again dominates the economic system. Its stranglehold will not easily be shaken.

 

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's policies have empowered too many vested interests. Midlevel bureaucrats will be unwilling to cede power unless the political elite lighten their hold as well, and that is clearly against the leadership's most basic interests. Looking at the judiciary, the police, the bureaucracy and many other branches of government, the chances of achieving fundamental reforms that decisively break away from the destructive path of recent years are very weak. Medvedev is wisely pursuing a gradualist grassroots approach, encouraging awareness of basic civil society. This strategy has the potential to feed long-term change, but it will not deliver anything substantial in the coming year.

 

Nonetheless, the risk that investors will be overambitious in pricing in reform is greater than the risk that we will see no reform in 2010. There are excellent gains to be made before the divergence between expectation and reality once again rears its head. Unusually for Russia, the domestic outlook is attractive in 2010, and it is on the global level that the near-term threats remain most elevated.

 

James Beadle is an independent global and emerging markets investment strategist.

 

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