EDITORIAL 28.12.10

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Editorial

month december 28, edition 000714, collected & managed by durgesh kumar mishra, published by – manish manjul

 

Editorial is syndication of all daily- published newspaper Editorial at one place.

For ENGLISH  EDITORIAL  http://editorialsamarth.blogspot.com

 

THE PIONEER

1. NEEDLESS CONFRONTATION
2. CRISIS NEARS FLASHPOINT
3. CONGRESS AFTER 125 YEARS - A SURYA PRAKASH
4. THE COMMUNAL FAULTLINE RUNS DEEP - PRAFULL GORADIA
5. AL QAEDA THREAT TO CHRISTIANS IN IRAQ IS LINKED TO EGYPT - MAGGIE MICHAEL
6. NEW START TO A NEW ERA - LYDIA WALKER & SIDDHARTH RAMANA

MAIL TODAY

1. PESKY CALL MESS SUGGESTS NEED FOR TRAI CLEAN UP
2. HARSH FACE FOR THE POOR
3. BJP CONFUSED ON PROBE
4. SHAKY HAND AT HOME MARS EXTERNAL DRIVE - BY KANWAL SIBAL
5. THROW OUT ' SEDITION' FROM THE PENAL CODE - GYANANT SINGH

THE TIMES OF INDIA

1. SAFEGUARD PRIVACY
2. BLINDED BY FOG
3. A CRUCIAL CONNECTION - MICHAEL KUGELMAN
4. IT'S BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS
5. A BLOW AGAINST EQUALITY - DEEP K DATTA-RAY
6. SCAMSTERS DICTIONARY - DILIP BOBB

HINDUSTAN TIMES

1. WHEN THINGS DON'T ADD UP
2. PLAY IT AGAIN, HUGH
3. LET'S KEEP THE FAITH - ABHIJIT BANERJEE
4. OF PILLARS AND POSTS - SHANKAR MUSAFIR

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

1. WIKIJULIAN
2. END OF THE ROAD?
3. DUTY-BOUND
4. BUBBLES ARE BACK - MK VENU 
5. ON A HOPE AND AN ELECTION - ALIA ALLANA 
6. THE ONE LINE THAT SAYS IT ALL
7. THE END OF IDEOLOGY, AGAIN
8. SPLITSVILLA, MANTRALAYA STYLE – RAKSHIT SONAWANE 
9. STRATEGIC CLIMATE CHANGE - K. SUBRAHMANYAM 

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

1. CURDLED MILK
2. INCUMBENCY FACTOR
3. WHERE'S THE PRIME MINISTER? - SUBHOMOY BHATTACHARJEE
4. GOOD MEDICINE - NAVROZ MAHUDAWALA
5. EAVESDROPPER
6. SMS POWER

THE HINDU

1. GUJJAR AGITATION, ONCE AGAIN
2. REVOLUTIONARY TEST FOR TB
3. OF LUXURY CARS AND LOWLY TRACTORS - P. SAINATH
4. INDIA CHASING A U.N. CHIMERA - K.S. DAKSHINA MURTHY
5. 2010: India's undeclared year of Africa - Rajiv Bhatia

THE ASIAN AGE

1. BLAME GAME IN WEST BENGAL
2. ARMS AND THE MAN - SHANKAR ROYCHOWDHURY
3. DEAR 2011, WILL YOU BRING JUSTICE? - JAYATI GHOSH

DNA

1. FAB 4 SPLIT BECAUSE THEY WERE MUSICALLY BROKE
2. AIRPORTS CAN BEAT FOG WITH RIGHT EQUIPMENT
3. A TRIP TO THE MOON SHOULD BE A JOINT EFFORT
4. MAN AND HIS SUBTLE ENVIRONMENT - SRI SRI RAVI SHANKAR
5. REPRESSIVE STATE BAD FOR FREE MARKET ECONOMY - PARSA VENKATESHWAR RAO JR
6. CORRUPTION IS DAMAGING THE VALUE OF BRAND INDIA - RAJEEV SRINIVASAN

THE KASHMIR TIMES

1. SELF-ABSORBED 
2. MESS IN HEALTH SECTOR
3. LIFE OF AND FOR COMRADE BINAYAK SEN  - BY FARZANA VERSEY
4. THE SPIRIT OF CHRISTMAS..! - BY ROBERT CLEMENTS

DAILY EXCELSIOR

1. TIME TO ACT
2. CHINGUS SARAI
3. TEARS, SQUEALS AND ONION PEELS - BY S.V. VAIDYANATHAN
4. KASHMIR: NEW REGIONAL STRATEGY - BY K.N. PANDITA
5. TOWARDS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION - BY V. Y. KANTAK

THE TRIBUNE

1. GSLV FAILURE
2. DALIT GIRLS SHOW THE WAY
3. NEW DISABILITY LAW
4. TIME FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT IN RAIL TARIFF - BY R.C. ACHARYA
5. VALUES FOR LIVING - BY S. ANANDALAKSHMY
6. MYANMAR: GREAT EXPECTATIONS AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS - UDAI BHANU SINGH
7. BENAZIR AND WOMEN IN PAKISTAN - SYED NOORUZZAMAN

MUMBAI MIRROR

1. THOUGHT AND BOWLED ZAHEER

BUSINESS STANDARD

1. THE DIESEL DILEMMA
2. ACCOUNTING CROP OUTPUT
3. LOWERING THE STOCK OF EXCHANGES - AJIT RANADE
4. DIGGING TUBE WELLS IN AN EARTHQUAKE - AJAI SHUKLA
5. AND NOW, FEED SECURITY - SURINDER SUD
6. THE CRIME OF DISAFFECTION – NILANJANA S ROY

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

1. COLONIAL NO MORE
2. RING-FENCE BANKS
3. TOURISM SEZS
4. EASING FDI RULES WILL ENHANCE TRADE - SATVIK VARMA
5. TH RO U G H TH E TH I R D EYE
6. NEW YEAR BECKONS CONG TRANSITION - C L MANOJ 
7. BIG PICTURE VERSUS FINE STRUCTURE - MUKUL SHARMA 

DECCAN  CHRONICALE

1. ARMS AND THE MAN
2. BY SHANKAR ROYCHOWDHURY       
3. LEARNING TO LIVE IN A FINITE WORLD - BY PAUL KRUGMAN
4. BLAME GAME IN WEST BENGAL
5. DEAR 2011, WILL YOU BRING JUSTICE? - BY JAYATI GHOSH

THE STATESMAN

1. WEAK FOUNDATION
2. HOPE IN THE HILLS
3. UP IN THE AIR
4. EAST MEETS WEST~II - MOHIT CHAKRABARTI
5. VOICES OF THE NEW GENERATION
6. 100 years ago today
7. A LONG HISTORY OF INDEBTEDNESS

THE TELEGRAPH

1. REAL CHARGE      
2. NEW START
3. SOCIALISTS STRIKE BACK -  ASHOK V. DESAI
4. MAKE A CLEAN BREAK - MALVIKA SINGH
5. A SLOW AWAKENING FROM A LONG NIGHTMARE

DECCAN HERALD

1. ILL-ADVISED MOVE
2. STIFLING DISSENT
3. RECIPE FOR ANARCHY - BY B G VERGHESE
4. JUSTICE FOR BINAYAK SEN - BY AMBROSE PINTO S J
5. A CHRISTMAS PARABLE - BY SHIRLEY HEREFORD

CENTRAL CHRONICLE

1. TOOTHLESS TIGERS
2. RESERVATION DEMAND OF GUJJARS
3. DRAGON & ELEPHANT: COMPLICATED NEIGHBOURHOOD
4. THE ENDGAME AT CANCUN
5. RUSSIA-INDIA BHAI-BHAI
6. RURAL DEVELOPMENT

THE MOSCOW TIMES

1. A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE - BY ALEXEI BAYER
2. THE YEAR OF THE TANDEM SHOWS SPLIT AT THE TOP
3. MEDVEDEV'S SILENT MAJORITY - BY VICTOR DAVIDOFF
4. THE WORLD'S LARGEST DYING POWER - BY VLADIMIR RYZHKOV

THE JERUSALEM  POST

1. LIEBERMAN GIVES NETANYAHU NO CHOICE
2. ENCOUNTERING PEACE: POSTPONING THE INEVITABLE - BY GERSHON BASKIN  
3. COLUMN ONE: THE WARS OF 2011 - BY CAROLINE B. GLICK  
4. NO HOLDS BARRED: THE END OF THE RABBI AS MR. NICE GUY - BY SHMULEY BOTEACH  
5. THE PM-FM BLOW-UP: CONFRONTATION OR MECHANISM? - BY MICHAEL FRIEDSON  
6. WHITHER AMRAM MITZNA? WHITHER THE LABOR PARTY? - BY SUSAN HATTIS ROLEF  

HAARETZ

1. THE FOREIGN MINISTER VERSUS THE GOVERNMENT
2. THE DICTATORSHIP OF THE PEAS - BY SEFI RACHLEVSKY
3. PARTNERS IN RACISM - BY MERAV MICHAELI
4. ROCKETS ARE A TERROR WEAPON - BY MOSHE ARENS
5. AND A SETTLER WILL LIVE WITH A PALESTINIAN? - BY NIR HASSON

THE NEW YORK TIMES

1. A STEP TOWARD FAIRNESS
2. A GREAT DAY FOR THE RIVER
3. TEMPLE TO JUSTICE
4. THE WHITE COAST
5. THE DATA AND THE REALITY - BY BOB HERBERT
6. THE SIDNEY AWARDS, PART II - BY DAVID BROOKS
7. THE ROAD FROM SECESSION TO SUMTER

USA TODAY

1. OUR VIEW ON TOBACCO REGULATION: NATION MUST DO MORE TO KEEP
2. KIDS OUT OF SMOKING PIPELINE
3. OPPOSING VIEW ON TOBACCO REGULATION: CONCERNED SMOKERS CAN
4. QUIT - BY JAMES E. DILLARD III
5. PRESIDENTS OFTEN STIFF-ARM PARTY LOYALISTS - BY ROSS K. BAKER
6. ON MY BUCKET LIST: O.J., GEORGE W. BUSH - BY DEWAYNE WICKHAM

TIMES FREE PRESS

1. STALEMATE IN FLAWED PROCESS
2. THANKS FROM THE NEEDIEST
3. STAFF REPORT(CONTACT)

HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

1. FROM THE BOSPHORUS: STRAIGHT - SECURITY IS THE JOB OF THE STATE
2. TEACHING OF A MOTHER TONGUE, TEACHING IN A MOTHER TONGUE - CÜNEYT ÜLSEVER
3. THE 'LIEBERMAN FACTOR' - SEMİH İDİZ
4. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AT THE YEAR-END - ERDOĞAN ALKİN
5. ARMENIA TURKEY IN 2010: COULD IT BE WORSE? - HOVHANNES NIKOGHOSYAN
6. DO YOU THINK DAVUTOĞLU IS A GOOD RESTORER? - MEHMET ALİ BİRAND
7. WORRISOME...
8. EU'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY STRUCTURE: WILL OR CAN IT MAKE ANY  - SERTAÇ AKTAN
9. A LONG WAY TO GO AFTER CANCUN - DAVID DICKSON

THE NEWS

1. GROWING STRAINS
2. PENDING PROBE
3. DIGGING OUR WAY OUT OF THE CAVE - MOSHARRAF ZAIDI
4. THE BALOCH DILEMMA - ZAFAR HILALY
5. KHAKI PUPPETRY - BABAR SATTAR
6. FISCAL DISCIPLINE BEYOND RGST - DR ASHFAQUE H KHAN
7. CEMENTING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
8. FLEETING MOMENTS - IFTEKHAR A KHAN

PAKISTAN OBSERVER

1. DREAMS OF BB
2. FABULOUS WHEAT EXPORT POTENTIAL
3. WORLD HAS TO RECOGNISE PALESTINE
4. PROVE HIM INNOCENT QUICKLY..! - ROBERT CLEMENTS
5. INDIA'S SHOPPING SPREE & APPALLING POVERTY - MOHAMMAD JAMIL
6. QUAID-I-AZAM & THE KASHMIR ISSUE - KHALID SALEEM
7. AFGHANISTAN: THE TAXING TOLL - I M MOHSIN
8. QUAID'S VISION OF PAKISTAN - RIZWAN GHANI

THE AUSTRALIYAN

1. FORGET THE FOCUS GROUPS, JUST EYEBALL THE VOTERS
2. A DISCRIMINATING DECISION
3. FOSTERING RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

1. WHAT'S YOUR POISON?
2. RUDD MUST PULL HIS HEAD IN
3. BUSINESS HEROES TARNISHED AS PUBLIC TAKES A LESS ROSY VIEW

THE GUARDIAN

1. MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY: RUSSIA'S POLITICAL PRISONER
2. IN PRAISE OF … THE ABBEY ROAD CROSSING
3. STATIONS AND POETS: POETRY IN MOTION

THE JAPAN TIMES

1. DEVOLUTION ACTION PLAN
2. PROTECTING CHILDREN FROM ABUSE
3. INDIA ASSERTING ITS INTERESTS VIS-A-VIS CHINA - BY HARSH V. PANT
4. CHINA'S NO. 1 IMPEDIMENT TO AN IT MILITARY REVOLUTION - BY HOLMES LIAO

THE JAKARTA POST

1. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
2. PRIVATIZING DEMOCRACY: A TIMELY CONCEPT - KUMBA DIGDOWISEISO AND VIDYA DYASANTI
3. EUPHORIA AND THE NATIONAL SOCCER TEAM - A'AN SURYANA
4. THE WORLD IN 2011 - CYRILLUS HARINOWO HADIWERDOYO

CHINA DAILY

1. DEMOLITION RULES
2. LAW ON SOIL EROSION
3. HOW TO CONTROL MEDICAL FRAUD EPIDEMIC - BY GRAYSON CLARKE AND JIM GEE (CHINA DAILY)
4. TACKLING EUROPE'S DEBT CRISIS - BY WOLFGANG SCHUBLE (CHINA DAILY)
5. RESET RELATIONS WITH MORE TRUST - BY CHEN WEIHUA (CHINA DAILY)
6. CENTRAL BANK TARGETS INFLATION - BY YI XIANRONG (CHINA DAILY)

DAILY MIRROR

1. HOLY INNOCENTS DAY: SAVE OUR CHILDREN
2. AVIRODHA: A MUST-CULTIVATE FOR THE EFFECTIVE AND BENEVOLENT
3. RULE
4. CHINA'S CALIBRATED BALANCING ACT
5. IT IS DEVOLUTION AND NOT DECENTRALIZATION THAT IS GOOD FOR SL
6. AUSTIN FERNANDO
7. POLITICIANS AND NEW YEAR RESOLUTIONS
8. THE NATIONAL ANTHEM SAGA – IN DEFENCE OF THE PRESIDENT - DR. TELLI C RAJARATNAM

TEHRAN TIMES

1. ISRAEL'S IMAGE CAMPAIGN A FAÇADE - BY AS'AD ABDUL RAHMAN
2. BANKERS, OLIGARCHS, MEDIA MAGNATES AND LEAKERS - BY MAIDHC Ó CATHAIL 

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

NEEDLESS CONFRONTATION

GUJJARS SHOULD CALL OFF AGITATION

That the Gujjars of Rajasthan have further stepped up their agitation in support of their demand for a quota in jobs and educational institutions can only mean bad news, especially for those travelling out of Delhi and its neighbouring areas. Gujjars have laid siege to key highways, important roads and rail routes with the purpose of blocking all traffic through the State; a shutdown has been forced on some towns. The immediate fallout of the agitation is being felt by both the people of Rajasthan as well as those who had plans to travel through the State — either by road or by train. Prices of essential commodities have gone up by nearly 10 per cent as trucks carrying supplies are stranded; according to one estimate, the agitation, now in its ninth day, is causing a daily loss of at least `20 crore. More importantly, any public sympathy that there may have been for the Gujjars is disappearing rapidly: Disruptive politics is no longer fashionable among either those who live in cities or in villages. That the agitation should have coincided with travel woes caused by seasonal fog has only worsened matters. Obviously, Mr Kirori Singh Bainsla and his men sense an opportunity in exploiting the situation to their advantage by arm-twisting the State Government, but this short-sighted strategy could well recoil on them. In any event, even if the Congress Government in Rajasthan, headed by Mr Ashok Gehlot, were to capitulate before the agitators, it is unlikely the High Court will take an indulgent view of the manner in which Mr Bainsla and others have responded to its order setting aside the five per cent quota for Gujjars till such time a proper enumeration is done of the community to justify the reservation accorded to them.

The Gujjars first voiced their demand when Ms Vasundhara Raje was the Chief Minister and the BJP was in power in Rajasthan. Subsequently, there were several rounds of violent agitation to press the demand for the community's reclassification as a 'Scheduled Tribe' so that it can access the benefits of the relevant quota. After much discussion and deliberation, a five per cent quota was offered to the Gujjars within the OBC quota to which they agreed. Accordingly, an Act was passed and the present Government notified it. However, the new law was challenged in the High Court which, while staying its implementation, has asked the Government to justify the quota on the basis of the Gujjar population. This will naturally require time — the Government has asked for a couple of months — but Mr Bainsla is not open to either reason or negotiation; he wants the quota to be enforced immediately. That's most unfortunate. Surely Mr Bainsla understands that the Government cannot over-rule the High Court's order. Nor can a new quota be introduced without facing objections from other groups seeking similar benefits or litigation. As the leader of the Gujjars, he should demonstrate greater maturity, call off the agitation and facilitate the enumeration which the court has asked to be conducted. As for the Congress, in may ways it is hoist on its own petard. Earlier, its leaders stood on the margins and taunted the BJP over the Gujjar demand; now it finds itself facing the community's wrath. Be that as it may, wisdom lies in eschewing the path of confrontation. 

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

CRISIS NEARS FLASHPOINT

TELANGANA CAN'T BE DELAYED TOO LONG

 

Much as the Congress's high command may want to put it off indefinitely, it cannot any longer postpone a decision on granting a separate Telangana State by carving up Andhra Pradesh. With as many as 11 Congress Members of Parliament and 20 legislators from Andhra Pradesh taking the looming crisis towards a flashpoint by going on a fast to demand the bifurcation of the State, the party high command has to sooner than later take a firm call. The fact that those on fast have rejected an appeal from Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy not to launch the agitation — a request that surely must have had the blessings of the central leaders — makes it clear that state leaders belonging to the Telangana region are no longer prepared to wait endlessly for their dreams to be realised. That the agitation is led by senior party leader Keshav Rao, considered close to the central leadership, makes it even more difficult for the demand to be ignored any further. The Srikrishna panel report on the issue is due any moment and that is the reason for the renewed demand. It is obvious that the pro-Telangana leaders suspect the committee report may not explicitly back their stand else they would not have mounted pressure. But whatever the panel's findings may be, they cannot be reason enough to delay the formation of a new State. And, if the Congress leadership still decides to fiddle, it will have to face the wrath of its own leaders in a State where the party is already battling the growing clout of Mr Jaganmohan Reddy and increasing importance of former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. With two such strong opponents, the party can ill afford an internal revolt at this stage.

The Congress high command is to blame for the state of affairs that the party finds itself in. After all, it had in principle conceded to the idea of a separate Telangana, which is why it could win over the Telangana Rashtra Samiti led by K Chandrasekhar Rao after the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Since then, however, the Congress has dilly-dallied on the matter, taking refuge in protracted meetings with the supposed purpose to finalise the details but in reality using such confabulations to avoid a firm decision. Even the formation of the Srikrishna panel was seen as a delaying tactic. With Mr Jaganmohan Reddy's growing influence in the Telangana region, State Congress leaders from there are under tremendous pressure to walk the talk. With their political career at stake, they cannot afford to be seen as compromising on the core issue. Perhaps the Congress leadership believes it can derive greater benefit from being seen as advocating a unified Andhra Pradesh since it can count on support from other regions like Rayalaseema. But the fact is that the Congress has already committed itself to a separate Telangana, and any dilution of that stand will invite a backlash, a preview of which is already on display.

 

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THE PIONEER

COLUMN

CONGRESS AFTER 125 YEARS

THE CONGRESS WE SEE TODAY IS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE CONGRESS THAT WAS FORMED IN 1885. EARLIER IT VALUED DEMOCRACY. TODAY IT WORSHIPS DYNASTY

A SURYA PRAKASH

The Indian National Congress, the country's grand old party, which took birth in Mumbai on December 28, 1885 has just concluded its 125th anniversary celebrations. Though this ought to be party time for all its members, the Congress leadership and the cadre are aware that the year that was has been so scam-tainted that the anniversary will in all probability be remembered for all the wrong reasons. So, far from celebrations, the focus at this anniversary ought to be on introspection and even penitence over all the unfulfilled promises.

As everyone is aware, the party has come a long way since its formation. When it pitched for 'Poorna Swaraj', it drew lakhs of idealistic men and women into its ranks. Many of them gave up their professions and ploughed all their wealth and resources into the struggle. Since it was built on the blood, sweat and sacrifices of lakhs of workers, the party came to symbolise the very essence of patriotism and freedom. It came to represent a political force that adopted a 'nation first' policy; stood for democracy in its truest sense; believed in equity and equality in every sphere; had a secular, liberal outlook; and, valued probity in public life.

We need to see where this party now is, on each of these counts. Taking the last point first because of its topicality, it must be said that the spirit of sacrifice began evaporating after 1947. In the initial years after independence, the Congress had no challengers either at the national or regional levels and members of the party began to relish the loaves and fishes of office.

Side by side, the first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru's dalliance with socialism resulted in the pernicious licence-permit-quota raj which became the breeding ground of corruption. Initially, industrialists offered bribes by way of 'party funds' to bag licences. Later, Ministers began pocketing something for themselves. That was the starting point of corruption in New Delhi and in the States. Later, corruption became institutionalised during Mrs Indira Gandhi's era after the great Congress split of 1969.

Let us now examine the Congress's commitment to democracy. Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Sardar Vallabhai Patel and BR Ambedkar ensured that we got a democratic Constitution which guaranteed equity and equality. But, as we began working this Constitution, the dominance of the Nehru-Gandhi family became a reality. The emergence of such a political dynasty ran contrary to our Constitutional ideals, but party members encouraged this trend because they saw the party's first family as the ticket to power.

Motilal Nehru (Congress president in 1928), started it all when he ensured that his son Jawaharlal succeeded him as Congress president in 1929. Jawaharlal Nehru continued the tradition by ensuring that his daughter Indira Gandhi became president of the Congress in 1959 when he was Prime Minister. Mrs Indira Gandhi became Prime Minister in 1966 and split the party in 1969. Since then the party has virtually become a private limited company that is owned and controlled by the Nehru-Gandhis. 

Mrs Indira Gandhi first promoted Sanjay Gandhi in the 1970s. Later, she promoted Rajiv Gandhi after Sanjay's death. After the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, Ms Sonia Gandhi took charge of the party and now Mr Rahul Gandhi is being groomed for the Prime Minister's job. He is already a general secretary of the Congress.

The basic principle is that if you are a Nehru-Gandhi, you are a natural claimant to political office. You need no other qualification. Since 1885, members of this family have been presidents of the party for 39 years. Motilal Nehru was president for two years, Jawaharlal Nehru for nine years, Mrs Indira Gandhi for eight years and Rajiv Gandhi for seven years. Ms Sonia Gandhi holds the record both within the dynasty and within the party by having the longest, unbroken tenure of 13 years and is still going strong.

Because of the stranglehold of one family on the Congress, many stalwarts have moved away from it, resulting in a substantial decline in the party's popularity. Among those who broke away were Jagjivan Ram, Devaraj Urs, Ramakrishna Hegde, Mr Sharad Pawar, Mr Purno Sangma and even Mr Chandrababu Naidu. Many others like Veerendra Patil, Mr AK Antony, K Karunakaran and Mr S Jaipal Reddy, have been in and out of the party.

This has eroded the party's vote share substantially. Since the first general election in 1952, the party, on an average, had a 45 per cent share of the national vote, which translated to about 65 to 70 per cent of the seats in the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies. However, this has dropped by about 15 to 20 per cent in the last two decades.

The Congress's worst performance was in 1999 when it secured 25.82 per cent of the national vote and just 114 seats in the Lok Sabha. It has since recovered and got over 200 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha election but its vote share remains at around 28 per cent. The party has never got a clear majority in the Lok Sabha since 1984.

The bigger problem is that the Congress's support base has suffered terrible erosion in several big States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar since then. Therefore, despite Mr Rahul Gandhi's strenuous campaigning, the party's vote share crashed to just eight per cent in Uttar Pradesh in 2007 and in Bihar in 2010.

Apart from parivarvaad, there is yet another issue — the Emergency of 1975-77 — that has damaged the party's democratic credentials. The stamp of approval that the party gave to the fascist regime that Mrs Indira Gandhi presided over during the dreaded Emergency remains a big blot on its image.

Finally, let us examine the Congress's commitment to equity and equality. During the years when Mrs Indira Gandhi was in power, the party played a cruel joke on the poor when it incorporated 'Socialism' in the Preamble to the Constitution and raised the slogan of "Garibi Hatao" from every public platform. This was a well-conceived plan to garner the votes of the poor. But the party had no clear plan to tackle poverty. Four decades after Mrs Indira Gandhi's 'Garibi Hatao ' campaign, India has 300 million people living below the poverty line.

Yet, we cannot wish away the Congress. It will be around for a long time to come because the people are far more worried about the alternative that is available to them at the national level — the Bharatiya Janata Party. But, that is another story. So, in the meanwhile, let us not deny the Congress the right to celebrate the glory of the past and the good fortune of the present. Congress Jai Ho!

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THE PIONEER

OPED

THE COMMUNAL FAULTLINE RUNS DEEP

FROM EUROPE TO ASIA, SECULARISM HAS BEEN TRANSMOGRIFIED BY ITS PRACTITIONERS INTO MEANING SOMETHING WHICH IT WAS NOT MEANT TO MEAN: APPEASEMENT OF MINORITY COMMUNITIES. THE POPE NOW BEMOANS THE EFFECTS OF 'SECULARISM' IN EUROPE WHERE CHRISTIANITY IS UNDER ASSAULT. IF WE LOOK AT ASIA, SPECIALLY INDIA, WE WILL FIND THE SAME FAULTLINE RUNNING DEEP

PRAFULL GORADIA

His Holiness the Pope Benedict is reported to have expressed earlier this month deep concern over the "harassment" and "prejudice" against Christians in Europe. By implication, he was protesting against secularists' bias against the majority religion of Europe. Until some recent protests against minarets and burqas, Muslim appeasement has been considered politically correct in most of Europe. He went on to bemoan that where Christians are in a minority, there was no religious freedom, especially in the West Asian countries. 

The Pope was evidently referring to the hostile experience in Egypt, where to this day, the 10 per cent Coptic Christians must take permission of the Government to even renovate their churches. Darfur in Sudan where the atrocities of the Muslim north upon the Christian south of the country is a terrible tale. Earlier, northern Nigeria had driven Biafran or southern Christians to a desperate civil war. Turkey is well known in history for its atrocities. They were so unacceptable that Prime Minister William Gladstone was provoked to say on the floor of Westminster, with the Book in his hand, that so long as this Book remains there would be no peace on this earth. He went on to publish a book entitled The Bulgarian Horrors. 

Subsequently, the Turks went on to massacre Armenian Christians. This genocide led Lord Curzon to call for discussions on the entire issue of minorities with Ismet Pasha of Turkey. It was his conclusion that minorities cannot co-exist with a Muslim majority. He solved the problem under the good offices of the League of Nations. He set up the Mixed Commission in order to work out a systematic exchange of Turkish Christians and Greek Muslims. Similarly, an exchange was arranged between Turkish Christians and Muslims in Bulgaria.

Does not Indian political life have a magnificent, rather a menacing, obsession? It is on the demand for a homeland for a minority that the Partition was conceded, minority is an euphemism for Muslims. At the 1931 Second Round Table Conference in London, Mahatma Gandhi had declared that he recognised Muslims as a minority. Christians, Parsis, Jews were all left out by him. The Constituent Assembly, elected at the end of 1945, had commenced deliberations on a forthcoming Constitution for independent India. The Congress thrust, at that time, was somehow to induce the Muslims not to insist on the country's bifurcation. Hence, the undertone of the draft was appeasement whose highlights were the then clauses 19 to 23 A. Jawaharlal Nehru did not give a go-by to this menacing obsession and included the same clauses in the final post-Partition Constitution except that their numbers were changed to Articles 25 to 30. 

The obsession continued as illustrated by what happened on November 4, 1948. Rajendra Prasad, President of the Constituent Assembly, proposed and got passed unanimously by the august body the following tribute: "Quaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah, who by his grim determination and steadfast devotion was able to carve out and found Pakistan and whose passing away at this moment is an irreparable loss to all. We send our heartfelt sympathies to our brethren across the frontier."

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has leapt many steps in the same direction by declaring 'minorities first' as his Government's policy, earmarking the first 15 per cent of the national resources for their benefit. The appointment of the Sachar Committee, the installation of a ministry for minority, declaring the concept of minority concentrated districts, et al are all steps in the direction of dividing the country into a majority and a minority.

The presidential address to the plenary session of the Congress party on December 19 has gone to the extreme by calling the RSS names such as 'Fascists', 'Nazis', etc. A few days earlier a general secretary had said that "Hindu terrorism was more dangerous to the country than Lashkar-e-Tayyeba". Another general secretary over the months has made any number of statements of an anti-Hindu nature. The Home Minister of India has used the expression 'saffron terror'. If any of these were true, why would the Hindu leaders have accepted the partition of India gracefully? Thereafter, would they have allowed Muslims to continue to stay in Hindustan although Pakistan was conceded as a homeland for the Muslims of the sub-continent? This was notwithstanding the offer by Muslim League eminences led by Quaid-e-Azam that there should be an exchange of populations. Sir Feroz Khan Noon, who later went on to become Prime Minister of Pakistan, while addressing the legislators of Bihar in April 1946, had gone to the extent of threatening the re-enactment of the "orgies of Changez Khan and Halaku Khan if Hindus did not allow us to take Muslims to the forthcoming Pakistan". 

Uncannily, in his 1946 book, India Divided, the same Rajendra Prasad had asked whether post-partition Muslims could be allowed to reside in India. If they were, would they be citizens or as aliens to be issued visas? Lebanon is an example of a majority being turned into a minority. Until World War I, it was a province of the Ottoman empire. With the defeat of Turkey, Lebanon was allotted by the League of Nations for France to administer. In 1945 when the French left, Lebanon had more Christians than Muslims and its President's post was reserved for a Christian. The higher Muslim birth rate however began to tilt the balance. As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated, more and more Arabs migrated to Lebanon. Gradually, the population ratio was reversed. Today, although the Constitution remains unchanged, Muslims call the shots. Going back to the Pope's complaint about the treatment of minorities in Islamic lands, Lebanon is an extraordinary example. 

Malaysia began as a secular country when in 1965 it separated from Singapore whose ethnic Chinese had felt harassed by the Malay Muslims. Before long the remaining Malaysia declared itself an Islamic country, although nearly half-the-population comprised others like ethnic Chinese, Tamils etc. Muslims showed no consideration for the minorities. The Indians, settled there for long years, repeatedly protest and complain against their ill-treatment. Indonesia ill treated its Christians and by UNO mandate it had to yield independence to its Christian province of Timor. 

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

AL QAEDA THREAT TO CHRISTIANS IN IRAQ IS LINKED TO EGYPT

ISLAMISTS ARE USING THE ORTHODOXY OF COPTIC CHURCH TO FURTHER THEIR CAUSE, WRITES MAGGIE MICHAEL

The wives of two Egyptian Coptic priests, forbidden by the Church from divorcing their abusive husbands, desperately sought another way out by converting to Islam. When their intentions were discovered, the police handed them over to the Church and their whereabouts since have been unknown.

 

The cases caused a furore in Egypt that spilled over the borders and turned deadly when Al Qaeda in Iraq cited the women as the reason behind the bloodiest attack ever on Christians in Iraq — a five-hour siege of a church in October that left 68 people dead. It was a stark example of the schism between Christians and Muslims that runs through West Asia and periodically erupts into violence.

"Amid the current sectarian discord, the timing is perfect for Al Qaeda to show it is defending Islam and to exploit the situation to rally extremists against the churches," said Ammar Ali Hassan, an expert in Islamic movements.

Both Ms Wafaa Constantine, 53, and Ms Camilla Shehata, 25, lived in remote rural towns in Egypt and enjoyed prestige as pious wives of conservative Coptic priests. But behind that veneer, a lawyer and a church official said, the women were trapped in abusive relationships.

Both tried to seek a divorce through church channels, but hit a dead-end because the Coptic Orthodox Church forbids divorce — a rule enforced even more strictly against the wives of priests. And they decided to rebel, not only against their husbands, but against the whole religion. They sought to convert to Islam, something viewed as a disgrace in their community. The Coptic Church considers those who convert to other religions such as Islam dead, making the marriage contract invalid.

Though Egyptian religious authorities say the women never succeeded in converting, the controversy in both cases escalated with angry protests by Egyptian Christians, who accused Muslims of abducting the women and forcing them to convert. That in turn galvanised Muslim hardliners in Egypt who protested and accused the church of holding them against their will and forcing them to convert back to Christianity.

Al Qaeda in Iraq turned it into a cause célèbre when it cited the women as the reason behind the Baghdad church siege. The group followed with more threats against Iraq's Christian minority, creating such fear that most Christmas celebrations in the country were cancelled.

Egypt's Coptic Christian minority, estimated at about 10 per cent of the country's 80 million people, has grown more religiously conservative over the past three decades as has the country's Muslim majority.

Egypt's Salafi movement — extreme conservative Muslims — have long accused the Coptic Church here of conspiring to 'Christianise' Egypt. Though Salafis in Egypt reject violence, their doctrine is only a few shades away from that of groups such as Al Qaeda. Both adhere to a strict interpretation of Islam that supposedly is a purer form of Islam said to have been practiced by Islam's Prophet Mohammed in the seventh century. The Salafis have set up dozens of websites and Facebook groups to spread the word about the two women.

Hossam Aboul Boukhar, the founder of one of the websites, KamiliaShehata.com, said the Shehata case is not an Egyptian matter anymore but "an Islamic cause". And he listed other women in similar situations. "It is a phenomenon. The new Muslims, our sisters, are in misery because they are being tortured and imprisoned. We don't know what is going on inside the churches," he said.

In weekly protests from August to November, bearded men in white robes gathered outside mosques in Egypt to denounce Pope Shenouda III, the Coptic Christian leader of Egypt, as an "infidel". And they vowed revenge. In one demonstration, Islamists raised a flag identical to that of Al Qaeda in Iraq — a black banner emblazoned with the phrase: "There is no god but god and Mohammed is god's Prophet." Two days later, Al Qaeda in Iraq attacked the church.

Constantine's story dates back to December 2004 when her brief disappearance led angry Christians to stage protests and clash with police for four days. The agriculture engineer lived with her family in the Nile Delta town of Abou el-Matamer, about 135 km north of Cairo. She was married to a Coptic priest who lost a leg to diabetes. Naguib Giberail, a prominent Coptic lawyer familiar with the case, said her husband had an explosive temper. He later died in 2006.

For two years Constantine sought help from the senior church official in her province, Archbishop Bakhamyous. She told him she was abused, according to Coptic clerics who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. 

AP

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THE PIONEER

OPED

NEW START TO A NEW ERA

US SENATE'S APPROVAL FOR A NEW START COMES AS A BOOST FOR CONTROLLING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL FAR AWAY FROM A NUKE-FREE WORLD, WRITE LYDIA WALKER & SIDDHARTH RAMANA

US President Barack Obama must have heaved a sigh of relief after the United States Senate ratified the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty by a vote of 71 to 26. This ended a month of intense speculation over whether the lame-duck senate would be able to pass a treaty which Mr Obama had made a centerpiece for his global disarmament agenda. 

After two years of calling upon bipartisanship even when his own political party has had a majority, and attempting to work with congressional Republicans, Mr Obama had chosen New START as his battleground with recalcitrant Republicans. The Republicans now will have a majority in the House of Representatives, and made gains in the Senate — the Government body which ratifies treaties. They campaigned this fall on blocking Mr Obama's domestic platforms, without articulating counter policies of their own. Many of Mr Obama's critics in his own party have been waiting for the President to take a firm stand against congressional Republicans. New START is the battle he has chosen, and he snatched victory amid widespread scepticism. Why did Mr Obama chose New START? How would the stalling — or even killing — the treaty have effected the President's non-proliferation and disarmament agenda? And how did New START, a modest little uncontroversial arms control agreement, turn into such a dramatic focal point for Mr Obama's domestic leadership?

Mr Obama chose New START as a legislative combat zone for the same reason he decided to place non-proliferation and disarmament on an international stage, in Prague this past spring 2010. The President has a strong personal investment in non-proliferation and disarmament dating back to his student days. The Prague speech was an opportunity to translate personal beliefs into political action. Yet like President Mr Obama's other hopeful agenda for West Asia peace, it seemed destined for failure — this time though due to domestic, rather than international politics.

The Obama Administration made New START a battleground for another reason besides the President's strong personal beliefs — seeming smart politics. In conventional wisdom, New START should have been an 'easy' piece of legislation. The driving force behind the treaty, US Senator Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) gave the treaty a bipartisan gloss. The treaty strengthens national security, generally a cause dear to the Republican party. Unfortunately Mr Lugar was initially the lone Republican Senator in favour of the treaty. 

 

Republican minority whip Mr Jon Kyl strongly opposed the treaty, which formed the basis of the perceived Republican opposition to the treaty. Mr Kyl's support was always doubtful: The man has never voted for an arms control treaty submitted to the Senate by a Democratic President. Additionally, the Republican leadership has placed a premium on blocking Mr Obama's legislation even that which draws upon past Republican policies, like START which was first proposed by President Ronald Reagan. The Obama Administration successfully gambled that it could bypass Mr Kyl. 

 

The New START ratification gives the President a domestic political victory which would enhance his international clout. Bringing out the big guns, Mr Obama called out Henry Kissinger, James A. Baker III, and Brent Scowcroft — all top names in both international affairs and past Republican Administrations — to address the Senate. Secretary of State (and former Senator) Hillary Rodham Clinton also addressed her old colleagues. While it was ironic to see her invoke the exigencies of "national security" at Republican Senators who often place that value at the top of their list of political priorities, this parade of international policy luminaries eventually had the desired effect. 

Mr Obama saw that New START was an excellent place to make a political stand: Aligning himself with the shadow of Reagan and other Republican policy-makers, invoking national security while taking the opportunity to act on deeply-held personal political beliefs. In light of the surprise turnaround, with commentators speculating on the failure of the treaty as early as last weekend, the success encountered by President Obama has significant international ramifications. 

To get a better idea of these ramifications, the implications can be viewed conversely — What if New START was not ratified? How would the implications of the treaty's failure impact the international community? 

For South Asia, the new START's failure would give a fillip to the Pakistani intransigence which has held up FMCT negotiations. Pakistan was at the receiving end of a specially convened high-level UN meeting in September 2010, wherein many of the 70-plus states represented, including the United States, explicitly singled out Pakistan for abusing the consensus decision-making rules of the FMCT negotiations. 

Pakistani refusal to place a moratorium on its fissile material production, is aimed at achieving parity with India, has led to strong international condemnation. On suspicions that the White House was preparing to take Islamabad to the United Nations Security Council over the issue, Pakistan's English daily Tribune quoted a senior official of the country's nuclear establishment as saying, "You can't even imagine what kind of pressures is being exerted on Pakistan".

New START's failure would bring the focus back to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, signed by the nuclear weapons states in 1970, which calls for their progress towards eventually eliminating their stockpiles in exchange for a commitment by non-nuclear countries never to build or acquire atomic arms. The failure by the countries to uphold this principle has been cited by the de-facto nuclear states and NPT violators as justification for their actions. For instance India has it has maintained a pledge to support a verifiable, global fissile-material cutoff treaty, however has delayed its realisation on account of the failure of the West to accept an independently verifiable regime. 

Mr Obama's attempts to walk the nuclear diplomatic tightrope in engaging with India as an increasingly equal partner, while relegating Pakistan in the background would further fuel anti-Americanism and a sense of hypocritical standing strengthening China's arguments for nuclear backing to Islamabad. 

To complicate nuclear matters with China further, the American congressional leadership led by the Republicans would not push for the ratification of the CTBT. According to a study published by former UN Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix, a domino effect of CTBT ratification would follow if the United States were to initiate the reform, with China following soon after. 

This would have, therefore, left Russia as the only Nuclear Weapons State to have ratified the CTBT and a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing. Russia had already indicated that the CTBT and moratorium are on its self accord and that treaty comes into effect only after all (44 listed) parties have ratified it, and hence it leaves open the possibility of withdrawing from the clause unless the United States takes up the matter more urgently. 

Seeing these implications on the failure of New START, it is therefore to be seen as a major victory for President Obama's stance on non-proliferation and US-Russia relations, and international arms control. In addition however, the ability of the US congress to have resolved its domestic battles and address international woes, has highlighted the credibility of the US Congress in rising up to the challenge. It may also given Mr Obama some breathing space for his other international policy goals. 

 

The writers are associated with IPCS, New Delhi. 

 

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MAIL TODAY

COMMENT

PESKY CALL MESS SUGGESTS NEED FOR TRAI CLEAN UP

 

THE Telecom Regulatory Authority of India ( Trai), which is charged with regulating the telecom sector and protecting the interests of consumers, has once again abjectly failed to meet its brief. With service providers once again thumbing their noses at the regulator and refusing to comply with Trai's guidelines on barring unsolicited commercial calls and messages, consumers have once again been left in the lurch.

 

They will continue to be plagued by pesky calls and spam SMSes well through the coming year, although a new set of regulations was supposed to have kicked in from January 1.

 

Telecom service providers have, as usual, misused the freedom they have received under the new, liberalised telecom regime to exploit consumers for commercial gain. They, as well as the telecom regulator, need to clearly understand that all freedom comes with responsibility. If that freedom is abused, then it needs to be punished. It has never been our case that all kinds of sales calls and SMSes should be banned. After all, modern telecommunications are a key business enabler.

 

But unsolicited sales calls are another issue altogether. Individual privacy is breached here. And those who have expressly indicated their desire not to be disturbed — by registering themselves with the National Do Not Call Registry — deserve the protection of the regulator.

 

Even Trai's revised norms, which should have gone into effect from January 1, were merely an improvement on the earlier — and thoroughly ineffective — norms, no more.

 

After a spate of telecom scandals, the government has been forced into taking some sort of clean- up measures. It would be well advised to extend the clean- up to Trai as well, since the regulator has time and again proved that it is more concerned with protecting the commercial interests of telecom companies than safeguarding the consumer.

 

HARSH FACE FOR THE POOR

THE M AIL T ODAY story about nearly 2,000 people from Maharashtra's Nandurbar district being made to spend time in jail since December 15 over their agitation for procurement of ration cards is a comment on several of our system's ills. First, that the poor people did not have ration cards speaks volumes about the efficiency of the public distribution system which corners a huge amount of subsidy from the state.

 

Second, the other demand that the agitators had about the implementation of the Forest Rights Act is again a very legitimate one, particularly since it is the UPA regime at the Centre that passed this legislation.

 

To not redress these genuine grievances and instead imprison the agitators reveals the face that the Indian state puts forward for the poor. The authorities themselves have conceded that the tribals' stir was peaceful.

 

How then can they justify sending them to a 7- day judicial custody twice? It is possible that the tribals broke some rules, but this could have been overlooked considering their poor awareness of the law.

 

For the same police that can't fight serious crime and is downright corrupt to stand on the nitty- gritty of law and round up hapless people is pathetic and reaffirms their reputation as state- sponsored bullies.

 

BJP CONFUSED ON PROBE

AT first sight, there is no reason why the 2G spectrum issue cannot be examined simultaneously by the Public Accounts Committee, headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party's Murli Manohar Joshi, as well as a Joint Parliamentary Committee that is being demanded by the Opposition. There is also an ongoing government- instituted inquiry being conducted by a retired judge.

 

But on closer examination this would be a less- than- optimal solution to the issue. Senior officials like the Comptroller and Auditor General, who began testifying before the PAC on Monday, will be doing nothing else but servicing inquiries. This will not only be a waste of their time, but public resources as well.

 

More curious, of course, is the role of Dr Joshi. His party has been in the forefront of the movement rejecting all other forms of inquiry in favour of a JPC. Yet, the good doctor does not seem to be concerned and has proceeded to hold the PAC hearings. Just how the circle will be squared by the party is not clear.

 

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            MAIL TODAY

COLUMN

 

SHAKY HAND AT HOME MARS EXTERNAL DRIVE

BY KANWAL SIBAL

 

INDIA'S CORE foreign policy challenges in 2011 will be no different than in 2010, but we enter the New Year with a somewhat strengthened diplomatic hand.

 

Coincidentally, leaders of all P- 5 countries visited India in 2010 in quick succession and all, barring China, gave us political support in varying degrees on Pakistan related terrorism issues, UNSC permanent membership and our inclusion in various non- proliferation regimes, in recognition of our growing international stature on the back of our economic performance.

 

Despite more international responsiveness to our concerns, 2011 will not produce any major breakthroughs in resolving our outstanding problems.

 

AfPak

 

In 2011, the terrorist threat facing us will not lessen, as appeals to Pakistan and pressure on it to eradicate terrorism from its soil have not yielded any significant result. Pakistan is delaying bringing to justice those involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack, the jihadi organisations are not being suppressed, even as local extremists stage at home brutal terrorist attacks incessantly. With growing instability in Pakistan, the uncertainties surrounding Afghanistan's future, Pakistan's destabilising strategic ambitions there, its unyielding hostility toward India, the inability of the US to compel it to abjure reliance on terrorism to further its political interests etc, 2011 will not bring relief to India on terrorism.

 

Other factors too lower expectations.

 

The India- Pakistan dialogue is stalemated, with India proposing a step by step engagement on all outstanding issues and Pakistan insisting on the centrality of the Kashmir question. Pakistan's rhetoric against India has become more shrill in recent months, with Foreign Minister Qureshi spurning the invitation to visit India unless his terms on Kashmir are accepted. Unless India yields in some measure— which would be unfortunate— it is not clear how the stalemate can be broken. Meanwhile, the Centre's Kashmir interlocutors, with an unclear mandate, are eroding India's long standing positions on the Kashmir issue to Pakistan's advantage.

 

The disconnect between our external security needs and domestic political rivalries, if continued, will further damage prospects of prodding Pakistan on the terrorism issue in 2011. Seeking to equate jihadi terrorism with " saffron" terrorism and drawing attention away from the external source of the terrorist menace to the country by stoking controversies over internally inspired terrorist attacks plays Pakistan's game by giving it propaganda fodder to mislead world opinion and its own public on the reality of its culpability in promoting terrorism against India.

 

President Obama is committed to a draw- down of US forces in Afghanistan beginning in July 2011. Even a token reduction will be construed by Pakistan and its accomplices that their current strategy is yielding gains. Unless the US puts sticks ahead of carrots in dealing with Pakistan— which it seems disinclined to do as it cannot find an answer to Pakistan's consummate tactics in offering cooperation and simultaneously supporting the depredations by Afghan Taliban groups, which only underscores, in turn, the value and the indispensability of this cooperation in US eyes— we will remain dangerously exposed to the uncertainties of the regional situation. We may have the goodwill of the Afghan people, even in the Pashtun belt, but this will not guarantee protection of our long term interests in Afghanistan unless its eventual power structures reflect the weight of majority public sentiment.

 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's 2010 visit to India does not augur an easier India- China relationship in 2011. China is steering India toward subscribing to its strategy in dealing with the bilateral relationship. It intends to keep the border issue alive as a pressure point, under cover of which it has begun to question India's sovereignty over J& K and consolidate further its relationship with Pakistan, including its presence in POK, for vital resourcelinked connectivities to the Arabian Sea, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

 

Neighbourhood

 

While keeping its political options toward India open, it seeks to disarm Indian resistance by shifting the focus to economic ties, for which it is mobilising powerful Indian private sector interests.

 

Thus, Wen Jiabao comes to India with hundreds of businessmen, but tells us that it will not be easy to completely resolve the boundary issue and that we should be prepared for a long wait for this. With the stapled visa issue China has opened a breach in India's sovereignty over Kashmir, for it to exploit to the degree it needs.

 

India has to counter it by opening a similar breach in 2011 in China's position on Tibet and Taiwan.

 

 

Our problems elsewhere in our neighbourhood will continue in 2011. India has interest in unblocking the current impasse in Nepal, but how to find a balance between self- interest and respect for Nepalese sovereignty in what we do vis a vis a prickly neighbour under insidious Chinese influence? Similarly, to what degree can we channel the triumphalist mood in Sri Lanka in the direction of a constructive, long- term solution to the ethnic issue that stabilises Sri Lanka internally, as well as its relations with us? Here too we have to contend with the Chinese factor.

 

We need to rapidly progress projects in Myanmar that promote land connectivity through that country to Thailand and beyond as an integral part of our Look East policy, once again keeping China's challenge in mind. With Iran relations took a downward turn in 2010 despite our desire to engage it for energy security and other reasons. UN/ US/ EU sanctions, Iran's nuclear ambiguities and the provocative statements of Iran's Supreme Leader on Kashmir have been the cause. Our relations with Bangladesh, happily, present a reasonably positive prospect for 2011.

 

World

 

On the larger international canvas, 2011 should see a steady consolidation of our ties with the US, but without any dramatic developments. The next round of the Strategic Dialogue at Foreign Minister level will be held to oversee the implementation of the existing wide- ranging agenda, though misgivings about US policies in our region will not disappear.

 

The Prime Minister's visit to Russia in 2011 for the annual summit should consolidate the positive momentum imparted to bilateral relations during President Medvedev's recently concluded visit. German Chancellor Merkel's expected visit to India in 2011 should boost relations with another European power after a very successful visit here by the French President.

 

The support India has received for its permanent membership of the Security Council during recent visits will not get translated into concrete results any time soon. Meanwhile, how India conducts itself as a non- permanent member in the next two years will be under scrutiny by the US in particular, with India being expected to be " responsible"— a euphemism for aligning itself with western positions.

 

India, with its impressive growth rates, will continue to have an important voice in the G- 20 in 2011. On Climate Change our recent Ministerial level policy excursions that seem to be consensus- breaking will not, hopefully, impose unwarranted costs on us eventually. Much will be said in 2011 on our civil nuclear liability legislation that has irked our would be nuclear power partners.

 

Ultimately, a strong, purposeful foreign policy has organic links with a commitment to good domestic governance. A key challenge for us in 2011 and beyond is that of wielding a strong external hand when the domestic hand is faltering. We cannot control our external environment when the internal one seems adrift.

 

The writer is a former Foreign Secretary ( sibalkanwal@ gmail. com)

 

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MAIL TODAY

COURT MARSHAL

THROW OUT ' SEDITION' FROM THE PENAL CODE

GYANANT SINGH

 

TO say that Dr Binayak Sen did not get a fair trial may be wrong but the outrage over his conviction under section 124A of the Indian Penal Code ( IPC) for sedition is justified.

 

With sedition having been inserted in the penal code during the colonial rule primarily to bar criticism of the government, the provision virtually lost its relevance after Independence. So much so, that our constitution makers took a conscious decision to omit any reference to " sedition'' in our Constitution.

 

Sedition was proposed as one of the grounds on which the fundamental right to speech and expression under Article 19( 1)( a) could be curbed but the Constituent Assembly finally decided to drop the term. While proposing an amendment to delete sedition, Mr K M Munshi said that if the provision was allowed to stay, " an erroneous impression would be created that we want to perpetuate 124- A of the I. P. C. or its meaning which was considered good law in earlier days.'' The constitution makers decided to leave behind the colonial legacy but it is still being carried forward by the IPC. Section 124A defines sedition as promoting or attempting to promote " hatred'', " contempt'' or " disaffection'' towards the government.

 

The outrage over Sen's conviction is probably nothing but outrage against the use of the provision which does not sit easy with the modern day notion of freedom of expression. However, such widespread outrage was unlikely if Sen had been held guilty of some other IPC offences as well.

 

The colonial provision can easily be used to harass even those writing against the government, organising mass movements, indulging in legitimate protests or sympathising with the cause of the downtrodden.

 

Given the backdrop of the use of the provision by the British government to book Bal Gangadhar Tilak, Mahatma Gandhi and several other freedom fighters, the action of the government becomes suspect if a person is merely convicted for sedition and not for any other offence like waging or attempting or conspiring to wage war against the state or collecting men and arms to do so or even attempting to create a social divide.

 

It is unlikely that a person indulging in any activity against the interests of the nation would not commit or attempt to commit or even abet commission of any other offence under the penal code.

 

Our penal code can easily do without the provision. The draft IPC had sedition as an offence but it was not considered necessary and was dropped before the enactment of the code in 1860. It was, subsequently, introduced in 1870 and was given a broader meaning through an amendment in 1898 taking into account the defence of Tilak who had been booked earlier.

 

The British Parliament debates reveal that it was inserted to deal with freedom fighters. However the history of independent India shows that the use of the provision has not stopped. It is true that the Supreme Court took the sting off the provision in 1962 by holding that section 124A would be attracted only if the offence was such that it could cause " public disorder'' by acts of violence.

 

But this has not made much of a difference. The Ahmedabad Police Commissioner, who could have invoked other legal remedies available to him, had, two years ago, initiated a sedition case against journalists for writing about his alleged links with the underworld. In cases where the state observes restraint, an individual can move court as happened recently in the case of Arundhati Roy.

 

All this shows that such harassment of citizens will end only with the repeal of the provision.

 

A repeal is necessary for historical reasons too. Sedition can make a hero out of a convict given the fact that Mahatma Gandhi had considered it to be a privilege to be booked under section 124A under which " some of the most loved of India's patriots'' had been convicted.

 

RAKHI SHOW GETS A RAP OVER QUALITY

THE Rakhi ka Insaf team running a mock court to settle disputes had to rush to a real court for relief after being accused of abetting suicide. A person abused by Rakhi Sawant on her show allegedly went into depression after the telecast of the programme and died.

 

What was startling was that the team did not restrict itself to defence against the charge of abetment to suicide, going ahead to virtually justify the use of abusive language by Rakhi on the strength of the consent agreement signed by the participants.

 

Rakhi Sawant had called Laxman Ahirwar " namard'' ( impotent) but the programme team defended her before the Allahabad High Court saying the Ahirwar family had entered into an agreement for the programme and had even signed release letters after the recording.

 

The argument that no case for abetment to suicide was made out was somewhat justified.

 

However, justifying the use of offensive language would virtually amount to supporting a contract for abuse.

 

Besides, two parties in a reality show could not be allowed to enter into an agreement to hurt the sensibilities of the people at large, who constituted the viewership.

 

Taking note of the use of unpalatable and offensive language, the high court observed that the case may ultimately not stand but the manner in which the show had been recorded and aired spoke volumes about its ethical standard.

 

HEADS RATAN TATA LOSES, TAILSHIS OPPONENTS WIN THE BOUT

INDUSTRIALIST Ratan Tata may have approached the Supreme Court for securing his privacy in the backdrop of the leak of Radia tapes but he may end up like a tragic hero in William Shakespeare's plays.

 

With the judgment in his case likely to set out the ambit and scope of the right to privacy, his privacy will be violated every time his case is cited or relied upon as a precedent in the future. More so, when some of the conversations to which he has objections have already reached the public domain.

 

Every time his case is cited as a precedent, the taped conversations published in newspapers, magazines, web portals and those finding a place in the judgment itself are likely to be read out or recalled. This reminds one of a statement by Brutus — How many times shall Caesar bleed in sport? — that Julius Caesar would be killed every time a play was enacted on his tragical story.

 

At the same time, a judgment in Ratan Tata's favour will surely go a long way in protecting the coveted right of similarly placed people in the future.

 

With some of the Radia- Tata conversations having already been published and there being no bar on further publication at the moment, Tata seems to have already lost his case for all practical purposes. Tata has to battle another anomaly associated with such a petition — he would have to point out during the hearings as to which conversations, according to him, were private, an exercise that can hardly be deemed pleasurable.

 

All this, however, should not make one underestimate the relevance the case holds for the future .

 

MARRIAGE OF DAUGHTER AS A LIABILITY

 

DAUGHTERS may be assets but marrying them off can still be a liability even for the high and mighty. Perhaps 21st century India may beg to differ but for vast swathes in this country, it is a thing to be reckoned with while making a list of one's assets and liabilities.

 

While declaring her assets and liabilities, a Supreme Court judge has listed her obligation to get her two daughters married as a liability.

 

The judge, having modest assets, has also not been able to conceal her concern over not having a house of her choice for spending her post retirement days. " Residential house to be built for post retirement'' is also among her liabilities.

 

BLAST FROM LICENCE RAJ

IT was not easy to live in the age of the licence raj. In 1955, a businessman from Patna was caught listening to radio by an inspector. Mangal Sao was booked after he failed to produce the licence for the radio set.

 

A 1962 Supreme Court judgment shows that this was just the beginning of the ordeal for Sao. He was convicted and sentenced by the trial court and the high court. Seven years later, a four- judge bench of the SC also found him guilty but he was let off with a fine of Rs 100 — which was quite a sum at the time.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

SAFEGUARD PRIVACY

 

Contrary to the prime minister's recent assurances - and despite valid concerns from corporate leaders regarding phone tapping in light of the Niira Radia tapes - it is astounding that the government has asked telecom companies to enhance their tapping capabilities. The Department of Telecommunications has asked operators to put in place systems that would enable them to tap 1 per cent of their subscribers simultaneously and make provisions for as much as 5 per cent - at least 35 million subscribers according to conservative estimates. If followed through, the directive will have the effect of turning the country into a surveillance society. Given the grave implications, increased phone-tapping powers should not be granted when reason demands a healthy balance between privacy and security concerns. 

What is worse is that the directive demands that private telecom companies provide the infrastructure needed for surveillance. This is a serious blow to accountability. In most countries phone-tapping technology is developed, controlled and implemented by the government, which at the end of the day is accountable to the people. However, if the primary responsibility of putting in place such systems were to be with private companies, it would leave the door wide open for manipulation and indiscriminate large-scale tapping. Even today it is unclear who leaked the Radia tapes and what the real motivation was. Unbridled powers to tap phones would not only make it difficult for corporations to conduct their affairs with any degree of confidentiality, but also hurt foreign investment in India. 

The government's authority to tap phones draws its legal validity from the provisions of the Indian Telegraph Act. Following the landmark PUCL vs Union of India case in 1996, the Supreme Court had laid down certain procedural guidelines to conduct legal interceptions. This included making the home secretary of the union and state governments the sanctioning authority. It also provided for a high-level review committee to investigate the relevance of such orders. But such caution has been thrown to winds in recent directives from government bodies as well as phone tapping incidents that have come to light. 

 

The right to privacy is one of the most fundamental entitlements of a democratic society. Diluting it is tantamount to moving towards a totalitarian regime reminiscent of the Soviet Union. Stringent safeguards are needed to ensure that phone taps are carried out in exceptional circumstances with adequate checks and balances. Otherwise we are heading, as Ratan Tata recently suggested, towards a banana republic

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

BLINDED BY FOG

 

Every year, fog-related travel disruptions are a seasonal bane the authorities pledge to tackle better next time around. This year, it's no different. Take Delhi International Airport Limited's (DIAL) assurances in mid-December that flights would run smoothly in low-visibility conditions. Heavy traffic operations have however been hit around Christmas time, courtesy thick fog Met officials now claim to have predicted in tune with their promise of better forecasts and coordination with agencies like DIAL. In a domino effect, Lucknow and Jaipur airports face pressure from flights shooed away from Delhi. Thanks to forced diversions, serious safety concerns have arisen about fuel reserves and safe landings. Train travel too has been derailed in North India, with superfast trains suffering delays and services being cancelled or rescheduled. 

True, safety considerations are paramount, up in the air, or on the tracks or roads. It's sensible that aircraft not compliant with the

 

 CAT III instrument landing system - for poor visibility conditions - should touch down in fog-hit cities only during daytime. But surely announcements in this regard shouldn't be belated if airlines are to schedule flights accordingly. Again, boarding rules are being altered only after complaints about travellers being confined inside grounded aircraft for hours. Better relief delivery is expected, in terms of basic facilities and efficiently providing information to reduce passenger distress. On its part, Northern Railway must answer for public inconvenience and endangerment respectively due to ill-informed staff and absence of GPS technology-based safety devices that warn train drivers about approaching signals. Clearly, air, rail and road transport management needs gearing more to preventing crises than damage control after the event, when official ad hocism often adds to the chaos. Needless to say, it'll help if the Met office too does a better job of reading the weather. 

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

TOP ARTICLE

A CRUCIAL CONNECTION

MICHAEL KUGELMAN

 

With India's soaring growth and rising glo-bal clout hogging media headlines, it is easy to forget the nation is beset by security challenges. Naxalite insurgency rages across more than two-thirds of India's states, while long-simmering tensions in J&K exploded once again this summer. Meanwhile, two years post-Mumbai, Pakistan remains unwilling or unable to dismantle the anti-India militant groups on its soil. Finally, China's military rise continues unabated. As Beijing increases its activities across the Himalayan and Indian Ocean regions, fears about Chinese encirclement are rife. 

It is even easier to forget that these challenges are intertwined with natural resource issues. Policy makers in New Delhi often fail to make this connection, at their own peril. Twenty-five per cent of Indians lack access to clean drinking water; about 40 per cent have no electricity. These constraints intensify security problems. 

India's immense energy needs - household and commercial - have deepened its dependence on coal, its most heavily consumed energy source. But India's main coal reserves are located in Naxalite bastions. With energy security at stake, New Delhi has a powerful incentive to flush out insurgents. It has done so with heavy-handed shows of force that often trigger civilian casualties. Additionally, intensive coal mining has displaced locals and created toxic living conditions for those who remain. All these outcomes boost support for the insurgency. 

 

Meanwhile, the fruits of this heavy resource extraction elude local communities, fuelling grievances that Naxalites exploit. A similar dynamic plays out in J&K, where electricity-deficient residents decry the paltry proportion of power they receive from central government-owned hydroelectric companies. In both cases, resource inequities are a spark for violent anti-government fervour. 

Resource constraints also inflame India's tensions with Pakistan and China. As economic growth and energy demand have accelerated, India has increased its construction of hydropower projects on the western rivers of the Indus Basin - waters that, while allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Waters Treaty, may be harnessed by India for run-of-the-river hydro facilities. Pakistani militants, however, do not make such distinctions. Lashkar-e-Taiba repeatedly lashes out at India's alleged "water theft". Lashkar, capitalising on Pakistan's acute water crisis (it has Asia's lowest per capita water availability), may well use water as a pretext for future attacks on India. 

Oil and natural gas are resource catalysts for conflict with China. Due to insufficient energy supplies at home, India is launching aggressive efforts to secure hydrocarbons abroad. This race brings New Delhi into fierce competition with Beijing, whose growing presence in the Indian Ocean region is driven in large part by its own search for natural resources. 

India's inability to prevent Chinese energy deals with Myanmar (and its worries about similar future arrangements in Sri Lanka) feeds fears about Chinese encirclement, but also emboldens India to take its energy hunt further afield. Strategists now cite the protection of faraway future energy holdings as a core motivation for naval modernisation plans; India's energy investments already extend from the Middle East and Africa to Latin America. Such reach exposes India to new vulnerabilities, underscoring the imperative of enhanced sea-based energy transit protection capabilities. 

While sea-related China-India tensions revolve around energy, land-based discord is tied to water. South Asia holds less than 5 per cent of annual global renewable water resources, but China-India border tensions centre around the region's rare water-rich areas, particularly Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, Chinese dam-building on Tibetan Plateau rivers - including the mighty Brahmaputra - alarms lower-riparian India. With many Chinese agricultural areas water-scarce, and India supporting nearly 20 per cent of the world's population with only 4 per cent of its water, neither nation takes such disputes lightly. 

India's resource constraints, impelled by population growth and climate change, will likely worsen in the years ahead. Recent estimates envision water deficits of 50 per cent by 2030 and outright scarcity by 2050, if not earlier. Meanwhile, India is expected to become the world's third-largest energy consumer by 2030, when the country could import 50 per cent of its natural gas and a staggering 90 per cent of its oil. If such projections prove accurate, the impact on national security could be devastating.

 

So what can be done? First, New Delhi must integrate natural resource considerations into security policy and planning. India's navy, with its goal of developing a blue-water force to safeguard energy resources overseas, has planted an initial seed. Yet much more must be done, and progress can be made only when policy makers better understand the destabilising effects of resource constraints. Second, India should acknowledge its poor resource governance, and craft demand-side, conservation-based policies that better manage precious - but not scarce - resources. This means improved maintenance of water infrastructure (40 per cent of water in most Indian cities is lost to pipeline leaks), more equitable resource allocations, and stronger incentives for implementing water- and energy-efficient technologies (like drip irrigation) and policies (like rainwater harvesting). 

Such steps will not make India's security challenges disappear, but they will make the secu-rity situation less perilous. And they will move the country closer to the day when resource efficiency and equity join military modernisation and counterinsurgency as India's security watchwords. 

The writer is programme asso-ciate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington, DC. 

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

TIMES VIEW

IT'S BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS

 

The marriage proposal, made by the 84-year-old multimillionaire Hugh Hefner to Crystal Harris, a girl young enough to be his granddaughter, has come in for uncalled criticism and commentary. The underlying assumption of wagging tongues is that there is something intrinsically noteworthy or wrong with the union. While such criticism speaks volumes about commentators, it says next to nothing about the happy couple. This is a sad commentary on the state of international comment when a private affair between two consenting adults becomes the focus for international chatter. 

Rather than acquiesce to public opinion, it is a matter of urgency for independent thinking people to question the dominant opinion. Should Hefner and his betrothed be condemned for making the ultimate commitment to each other? Surely even the most puritanical amongst us should celebrate this reaffirmation of an age-old practice, developed independently by every major culture, but increasingly under threat. If the objection is not to marriage then perhaps it is to the difference in age. But as Shakespeare noted, 'love is blind'. Who can foresee when or where cupid's arrow lands? And should we not share in its landing rather than assume that a rationality composed only by sex and materialism motivates their decision? Even if such an assumption is correct, surely it's up to the couple to decide what they want. Commentators cannot arrogate themselves the right to decide on their behalf. 

To take Hefner and his fiancee's actions on their own terms also provides insights into how people will behave in a world where technology has transformed lives. Regardless of whether one agrees with what Hefner has done, he has, at a minimum, transformed publishing. Perhaps if we give him a chance, he might also transform our age-old ideas about love and marriage.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

COUNTERVIEW

A BLOW AGAINST EQUALITY

DEEP K DATTA-RAY

 

That another old, not to mention phenomenally rich, man has proposed and been accepted by a young, very beautiful woman indicates much remains to be done to realise a world founded on equality. This valuable idea is increasingly under threat by the rise of asymmetries within relationships. The engagement is significant not for who is involved but because it highlights this worrying trend. 

At the heart of the matter is the question of whether asymmetric relationships are desirable and feasible? Without fail, the much older partner is also much richer and the younger, very attractive. Is this coincidence? Shakespeare wrote, 'love is blind' but he continued 'and lovers cannot see'. In asymmetric relations there is a willing suspension of sight and an increased awareness of the older partner's magisterial wealth. This is to base marriage on - economic and sexual - inequality and degrade all the other supports upon which this ancient institution rests. Can any healthy and enduring relationship between two people be founded not on economic and sexual compatibility, but on vast difference? 

The matter is not whether Hugh Hefner, the founder of Playboy - a magazine which sets out to please our basest instincts - is exploiting the woman he is about to marry. It is highly chauvinistic to presume that a man is incapable of being exploited himself. However, it is undeniable that overwhelmingly the rich old person is also the male. This speaks volumes about how people remain trapped by sexist roles and ideas. If there is to be any refining of marriage along the principle of equality, then what is required is reducing asymmetries between partners, not basing relations on them. 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

SCAMSTERS DICTIONARY

DILIP BOBB

 

Between Raja and Radia, the tapes and the taps, the Tata and the Chandra-Seeker, it's become terribly confusing trying to figure out who has done what and when and to whom. It's almost like one of those kids' birthday party games where you try and pin the tail on the donkey while blindfolded. Competitive politics has made it tougher to figure out head from tail. 

The reason everyone is totally confused is because the totals are so mind-boggling: Rs 1.39 trillion is the figure being bandied about and anybody who had that kind of financial spectrum would be giggling hysterically all the way to the nearest bank in Liechtenstein. 

It may have been a steep earning curve for someone but it has also been a steep learning curve for the rest of us, trying to figure out all those arcane acronyms being bandied about. Try asking Congress members what the 2G controversy is all about, and they will look quite blank. They have been conditioned to believe that 2G is short for the two Gandhis, Sonia and Rahul, and any other combination is beyond their comprehension. Mention 3G and the plot thickens with Priyanka added to the mix, even though she's now a Vadra. In Congress circles, however, a Gandhi is a Gandhi, and will smell just as sweet (with due apologies to Shakespeare). 

 

Back to the learning curve and the acronyms that everyone's so concerned about. Here's the first lesson in the Scamsters Dictionary. 2G led to CAG which in turn led to CBI which took it to DoT. Then the trail led to TRAI which, in turn, has led to all sorts of connections to the DMK in Chennai and elsewhere, made a sharp U-turn, and moved back to DIAL. And now we have the ED getting involved, trying to ensure that the PMLA has not been violated. Finally, we are still trying to get to the bottom of how VCCPL carried so much clout in such a short time. That, we're told by the opposition, can only happen if there is a JPC. 

So far, the investigative bandwidth is spanning the entire spectrum, from NGOs to chartered accountants, priests and editors, friends and family. Everything is relative. It seems to be like the 2G licence which has something called UAS or Unlimited Access Services. Now we all know who had unlimited access to whom, and the raids on Radia have even given us a new phrase to include in the Scamsters Dictionary, "Economic Terrorist", as contributed by Praful Patel who has been stung by his name popping up in the tapes. It's become a mad race to clear your name ASAP. 

 

For the uninitiated, the Scamsters Dictionary starts with DoT, or the Department of Telecommunications, which deals with anything to do with communications, from phones to faxes and everything in between. Then, we have TRAI, or Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, a supposedly independent body. Next is VCCPL, the company owned by Radia, which a very independent entity, aka TRAI's former boss, joined after leaving TRAI, raising eyebrows but also VCCPL's bottom line. 

We have another employee who had connections to DIAL, or Delhi International Airport Ltd, but so far he is not named in CAG which, by the way, is yet another independent body, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, the one that originally set the feline among the pigeons. We now come to GAG, which is the type of order issued by the CHC, or Congress High Command, to its spokesmen and women. Meanwhile, the CWC, or Congress Working Committee, is working overtime to ensure its ties with the DMK don't go AWOL. 
Finally, between the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) we hope to untangle some very tangled wires and cross connections. In fact, in all the confusion, the Scamsters Dictionary will be incomplete without one more acronym: QED. 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

OUR TAKE

WHEN THINGS DON'T ADD UP

 

If ever the odds were stacked against anyone, it would be doctor-activist Binayak Sen who has now been sentenced to life imprisonment for sedition by a Chhattisgarh trial court. The investigations that found Dr Sen guilty of waging war against the State have been worthy of Inspector Clouseau, the bumbling detective in the Pink Panther movies. In an effort to magnify Dr Sen's misdemeanours, an email sent by him to his wife who is director of the Indian Social Institute was mistaken to be a sinister communication to the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan. The acronym-challenged investigators then discerned some coded message in a reference to a 'chimpanzee' in the White House.

 

In a democratic country, none of this should have stood up in a court of law. But the unfortunate Dr Sen was done in by these and other slipshod investigative techniques. The damage does not stop at such shoddy information analysis, it goes further. Dr Sen's meetings with Narayan Sanyal, an alleged Maoist leader who is in Raipur jail, was also seen as part of a larger conspiracy to undermine the State. Though the meetings were allegedly under the supervision of the prison authorities, Dr Sen has not been given the benefit of the doubt that these were not subversive activities. The next piece of evidence is even more puzzling, that of linking Dr Sen with a Kolkata businessman who had a letter written by Mr Sanyal.

 

As public outrage mounts, a question bound to arise is what exactly constitutes sedition or engaging in activities which subvert the State. Dr Sen's meetings with those who are critical of the State seem to pale in comparison with the fact that those who have defrauded the exchequer have no constraints on their freedom. But this is not about comparative justice. The core of the matter is that till now, the evidence produced against Dr Sen as an enemy of the State is incredibly weak and should not have stood up in any court of law. It's not that we are insisting Dr Sen's innocence. But going by what has been put on the table by the authorities to 'prove' his guilt, he certainly can't be deemed guilty of sedition by any objective court. Dr Sen's sentence of life imprisonment will be challenged. But he has already been a victim of judicial delays earlier when he was denied bail for two years. It would be a further subversion of justice to delay moving on an appeal from him. What is at stake here is bigger than just a man being sentenced to life imprisonment courtesy extremely weak evidence. The way we as a nation deliver justice and decide who is guilty and who is not is being acutely put to test in the Binayak Sen case. We sincerely hope a brighter sense of justice prevails in a higher court.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

THE PUNDIT

PLAY IT AGAIN, HUGH

 

If pursuit of happiness is a basic right in the American constitution, Playboy founder Hugh Hefner cannot be faulted for taking it to its logical extreme. By splashing beautiful women, shorn of the burden of clothes, on the pages of Playboy, he set new benchmarks of happiness for men across the world; in making an overabundant amount of money in the process, he ensured that he remained supplied with the Sandy, Mandy and Wendys. Hefner, 84, has now decided to take the plunge again (at marriage, we must add), proposing to former Playboy Playmate Crystal Harris.  

 

Harris, 60 years younger, is said to have burst into tears when offered the ring. In case you thought the tears were induced by Hefner's Viagra-induced antics on his sultan-sized, rotating bed, remember Harris had vanquished other blonde bombshells to win the coveted prize. And that a few years down the line, she could be the Hefner ex-spouse, spending her loot in some faraway, exotic island.

 

Harris need not be embarrassed for dwelling on the commercial possibilities of her marriage. Over centuries, royal marriages have been about realpolitik, diplomacy and material gains. Jane Austen, too, had mentioned the economic logic of men with large fortunes needing a wife. All we can say is Play on, Mr and the future Mrs Hefner.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

LET'S KEEP THE FAITH

ABHIJIT BANERJEE

 

The country had been growing at a remarkable 7.5% average rate for nearly 30 years, but signs of economic stress were apparent. There had been an explosion of inequality and growing corruption. The government responded to the resulting rising discontent by launching various entitlement programmes, and borrowing heavily to pay for them.

 

The country is not India, though it almost could be. It is Brazil circa 1979. What happened afterwards is what worries me. There was a crisis in the world economy in 1979 — because oil prices went up and the United States' economy went into recession. Brazil first went into denial, borrowing to fund continued expansion, but there was no escape. Between 1980 and 2005, the Brazilian economy was essentially completely stagnant.

 

I recognise that there are important differences between Brazil then and India now. Our government has mostly avoided borrowing in dollars, so the threat to our currency is less immediate. This is a result in part of the fact that we save a lot more than the Brazilians and our banks meekly turn those savings over to the government. It is also probably true that our businessmen are less footloose than their counterparts in Sau Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, so a massive capital flight is less likely. And democracy does give us better shock-absorbers than Brazil had. But the similarities are too glaring (and the implied risks too big) to be entirely ignored.

 

In Delhi last week, going between ribald discussions of the Radia tapes and more earnest disquisitions about the rights and wrongs of microcredit and the latest Right to X (haircuts are next, one wit suggested), it was hard to escape the feeling that there was a close connection between the two. The attitude of the ruling elites today seems to be that it is too hard to do much about corruption — it is easier to do damage control ex-post, and there a giveaway or two can do miracles. Hence the tacit or explicit collusion with the blatant expropriation of the microfinance institutions in Andhra Pradesh in the name of protecting the poor, hence the recent embrace of the 'rights-based agenda'.

 

My sense is that this is all based on a series of misconceptions. The voter may decide to vote for the party that gives him the largest give-away but the damage to the system is done. The voter right now is wondering why Manmohan Singh, the man (entirely correctly) reputed to be straightest prime minister in many years, is dragging his feet, about Suresh Kalmadi and A Raja.

 

And my worry is that it is going to confirm what they always suspected and often express: 'Sab sala chor hai' (all the bastards are thieves). To me this is biggest threat to our democracy, precisely because it is not true — there are many people still in the political system who are there for the best reasons. But once voters assume that there is nothing beyond posturing that differentiates the candidates, they stop being discriminating about who to vote for, and then it is the good guys who lose out.

 

And it is not only the unwillingness to fight corruption that breeds cynicism. It is also the promise of rights that turns out to be mostly empty — the ration shop that is always closed, the health centre that charges money for 'free' services, the school that does not teach. What I hear on the ground even more than accusations of corruption are expressions of disbelief. And we don't make things better by creating more rights when we have not yet figured out how to effectively deliver the previous ones.

 

Most politicians are at least half aware of this problem. This is why when they are facing a serious challenge they are quick to reach beyond the rights-based approaches towards more traditional giveaways. The great attraction of loan write-offs just before elections is that unlike most government programmes, they get to the intended person, fast — the bank just takes your loan off its books and it is done. This is also why an embattled chief minister might want to tell his constituents that they no longer need to repay their 'unjust' microfinance loans. It might cross the politician's mind that next time there will be no loans to write off and that one day people may start to rue the fact that no one except the moneylender wants to lend to them, but right now they have a job to hold on to.

 

The problem is that once voters start expecting these really inefficient giveaways and give up on any other more long-term benefits that they can get from the political system, then that is what politics becomes. If a politician wants to be believed, she will have to offer something quick (and probably dirty). All other promises the voters will discount. The person who will offer the most will win, even if he is just the one who is most willing to mortgage the country's future. This is the politics that kept growth in much of Latin America in its thrall for two decades and more. It is only in the last five or six years that Brazil seems to have succeeded in throwing it off.

 

I think we can still avoid getting caught, but we have to start building a new politics now. Our senior leaders have to start using the vocabulary of concrete achievements more. They need to go out and say that they stand for long-term investments and not unsustainable giveaways, claim credit for getting every single house in their constituency hooked up to tap water rather than for the loans that got cancelled. The media must play their role too — scams are fun to write about, but someone needs to be out there looking for accomplishments, finding our heroes.

 

Abhijit Banerjee is Ford Foundation International Professor of Economics and Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, MIT. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

OF PILLARS AND POSTS

SHANKAR MUSAFIR

 

In another fortnight of so, newspapers and magazines will start debating the relevance of Republic Day celebrations, especially the expenditure the State incurs on the parade in the capital. Intellectuals, journalists and civil society members will delve on what India has achieved being a republic.

 

While most of the celebrations reinforce the solidarity of the republic with a show of power and promote the diversity of the nation through a plethora of folk dances and other cultural activities, there is little thought about Republic Day primarily being a celebration of India adopting its Constitution. For the common citizen, it is nothing but the parade and a national holiday. How about bringing the constitutional element into the celebrations?

 

Schools and educational institutions could invite a local judge, a Member of Parliament, a member of the legislative assembly and a local official of the district administration as representatives of the three pillars of the republic, the judiciary, the legislature and the executive respectively. The three could sit on panels and appraise students about the basic three-pillar structure. There could be a discussion on the relationship between the three pillars and numerous ideas could come out for people to think on. The media, as the 'fourth pillar', could play a role by spreading these discussions among the three.

 

Schools could invite classes to create its own Constitution. Just like the Constitution elaborates on who would be the head of the republic, how she would be chosen, what her roles and responsibilities would be, the same can be done by 30-odd students in each class. They could focus on their head (read: monitor) and her roles and responsibilities, and deliberate on the rights and duties of 'class citizens'. The entire process of coming up with such a document could create a sense of appreciation for the Constitution among people, especially the young.

 

India is not just a republic; it's a democratic republic. So, in the run-up to January 26, schools could conduct elections to the 'posts' of class monitor, house captains and school captains to celebrate their 'democracy'. People, including teachers, who have conducted election duties could share their experiences of polling, counting and other features of voting. I don't know whether all this will lead to anything concrete about learning about our Constitution or Republic, but it will certainly put the Constitution firmly in the context of Republic Day.

 

Shankar Musafir is a Delhi-based educationist. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

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T tion c wo Indian scientists -- Ajay Anil Gurjar and Siddhartha A. Ladhake -- are wielding sophisticated mathematics to dissect and analyse the traditional medita- chanting sound `Om'. The `Om team' has published six tion chanting sound `Om'. The `Om team' has published six monographs in academic journals, which plumb certain acoustic subtlety of Om that they say is "the divine sound".

Om has many variations. In a study published in the Inter- national Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, the researchers explain: "It may be very fast, several cycles per second. Or it may be slower, several seconds for each cycling of [the] Om mantra. Or it might become extremely slow, with the mmmmmm sound continuing in the mind for much longer periods but still pulsing at that slow rate." The important technical fact is that no matter what form of Om one chants at whatever speed, there's always a basic `Omness' to it. Both Gurjar, principal at Amravati's Sipna College of Engineering and Technology, and Ladhake, an assistant professor in the same institution, specialise in electronic signal processing. They now sub-specialise in analysing the one very special signal. In the introductoy paper, Gurjar and Ladhake explain that, "Om is a spiritual mantra, out- standing to fetch peace and calm."

No one has explained the biophysi- cal processes that underlie the `fetch- ing of calm' and taking away of thoughts. Gurjar and Ladhake's time-fre- quency analysis is a tiny step along that hitherto little-taken branch of the path of enlightenment. They apply a mathematical tool called wavelet transforms to a digital recording of a person chanting `Om'. Even people with no mathematical back- ground can appreciate, on some level, one of the blue-on- white graphs included in the monograph. This graph, the authors say, "depicts the chanting of `Om' by a normal per- son after some days of chanting". The image looks like a pile of nearly identical, slightly lopsided pancakes held together with a skewer, the whole stack lying sideways on a table. To behold it is to see, if nothing else, repetition.

Much as people chant the sound `Om' over and over again, Gurjar and Ladhake repeat much of the same analy- sis in their other five studies, managing each time to chip away at some slightly different mathematico-acoustical fine point. The Guardian

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

WIKIJULIAN

 

From hacktivism to hardback, the going rate is apparently £1.1 million. Julian Assange, the worldwide whistleblower, has finally decided to talk some truth about himself, but he will be doing so in the old-fashioned format of a book. He has signed deals worth about £518,000 with Alfred A. Knopf in the US, and £325,000 with Canongate in the UK for his autobiography that should come out sometime next year. Throw in other markets, maybe even serialisations, and the total should easily cross a million pounds, Assange calculates. Yet, how ironic that Assange should copyright his memoir; how incredibly apt it would have been if the champion of transparency had stayed true to his territory and released information about himself — from his spectral white hair to the shocking disclosure of confidential documents — in the great digital commons. Assange says he didn't want to write the book, but needed the money to fight the sexual assault cases against him, and fund WikiLeaks since the organisation is in a financial fix with Visa, MasterCard and PayPal blocking cash transactions to it. Yet WikiLeaks is a philosophy as much as it is an investigative movement. So it is intriguing that he chose not to place his memoirs in the public domain — on something like Project Gutenberg or MediaCommons, or even a Wikipedia page — and thereby, once again, stand by his grand idea of technological determinism.Year 2011 could see WikiLeaks leaking. Apart from Assange's memoir, his discontented former right-hand man, the German Daniel Schmitt will be coming out with Inside WikiLeaks: My Time with Julian Assange at the World's Most Dangerous Website within weeks of Assange's extradition hearing in London in the first week of February. That is entirely appropriate in this millennium of declassification.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

END OF THE ROAD?

 

In a sign of the times, the Congress has abandoned its grand yatras in Uttar Pradesh, meant to revive its calcified organisation and rally against the failings of the Mayawati administration. AICC General Secretary Digvijaya Singh said that the party would focus on public meetings and agitations. The yatra, the long agitational march, has been an Indian political staple for decades now. Once, it served both a symbolic and a tangible purpose. Leaders physically travelled great distances to evangelise their cause and persuade people, literally gathering strength along the way. Public excitement grew gradually and incrementally, and people gathered to catch a glimpse of an inspiring leader they might have only heard of, and listen to her ideas. But over the years, the rituals of political yatras and rallies have become weary show business. TV, newspapers and the Internet have demystified politicians, their arguments are all too familiar, and there's very little left of the genuine drama of the past. It's well known that crowds have to be cajoled and bribed into showing face at a rally, to keep up appearances for the leader — and it stands to sense, that even those convinced of the party's views would be reluctant to schlep themselves to a rally to show solidarity. It simply isn't necessary any more.That's not to say that direct canvassing doesn't have its appeal. Attending a rally or a march can still move you in a visceral way, as opposed to television debates and speeches that convey an illusion of familiarity, but leave you feeling as though the action is happening in a faraway political arena. There's a raw, galvanic power to the rally in a time when politics has disappeared into small screens. Look at Glenn Beck's "Restoring Honour" rally in the US, or the ironic "Rally to Restore Sanity" that mocked the serious political rally even as it made a stab at sincere, rational discourse. Either way, political mobilisation is increasingly a blend of direct and virtual methods, with meat-space gatherings reserved for special occasions. And as the Congress shelves the long march this time, others too might consider saving themselves some of the effort and expense in future.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

DUTY-BOUND

 

Some things are going on. The Public Accounts Committee is one of the most powerful of Parliament's regular, statutory bodies. Constitutionally, the government can only spend money that Parliament sanctions. And Parliament has the right to scrutinise how that money's spent. That is what, using the resources of the Comptroller and Auditor General, the committee intends to do in its investigation of the allocation of licences for the 2G spectrum. Notwithstanding all the noisy disruption that completely derailed the last session of Parliament, the PAC — led by BJP veteran and former party president Murli Manohar Joshi — has moved firmly ahead with its investigation. On Monday, the current CAG, Vinod Rai, appeared before the committee to brief them about the CAG report that, with its upper-end estimate of a Rs 1.76 lakh crore loss to the exchequer, initiated this particular phase of outrage about the 2G licensing process.The last session of Parliament was disrupted by a firestorm over which instrument to choose to investigate 2G licensing. The JPC-versus-PAC firestorm has thrown up enough smoke to obscure the very real questions that need answering. In a creditable effort to try and remove itself from the almost either-or JPC/PAC deadlock, the PAC has chosen to move ahead, and proceed with what it, regardless of whether or not there's a JPC, is supposed to: examine and oversee the government's accounts. As these columns have previously pointed out, the onus is on the government, and the prime minister, to reach out to the opposition to ensure that any investigative process is seen to be fair, transparent, and — importantly — allows sufficient participatory space to the opposition. The prime minister has written to Joshi, arguing that although no past PM has appeared before a PAC he is willing to do so. Joshi, in turn, says that they will take a "careful look" at the letter. It is gratifying that a senior opposition leader, undistracted by the alarums and excursions of the recent session, sees his duty so clear. It is too early to sense whether this rapport will help break the deadlock, or at the least help both government and opposition arrive at a point where they resume a more cordial to-and-fro. Nonetheless, at least one of the most powerful bodies of Parliament has extricated itself from the political tug-o'-war.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

BUBBLES ARE BACK

MK VENU 

 

There is a marked nervousness among Indian policy-makers about the prospect of fresh financial bubbles building in commodities globally, especially food and energy. Food and energy prices are once again moving up sharply, like they had done in the run up to the 2008 global financial crises. Many analysts believe global oil prices could head closer to $100 a barrel in near future. This may not be good for India as it is a net importer of energy and other commodities. Though India is poised to record a GDP growth of close to 8.7 per cent, there still seems to be a sense of foreboding among policy-makers, largely arising out of uncertainties resulting from excess liquidity and fresh financial bubbles around the world.There are many portents in global markets which look similar to what had existed in the months preceding the 2008 financial meltdown. There is no housing bubble in the United States this time round, but most analysts agree that China's real-estate market is quite overheated. The Chinese central bankers have given clear indication of their intention to use monetary and other instruments to cool the real-estate market. Any sharp policy correction by the Chinese will certainly impact the rest of the world as China's contribution to the incremental world GDP is the largest at present. The fear is China, which was seen as one of the saviours of the world economy after the 2008 episode, could suffer a real-estate and housing shock this time. Global analysts will watch China and its real-estate market more closely in 2011. The other condition that closely resembles what existed before the 2008 crises is the growing speculation in commodities. With more money available at near-zero interest rates, especially after the US Fed Reserve pumped another $600 billion into the system recently, Wall Street funds have been speculating ever more in commodities like oil, metals and food items. Many of these commodities are near their peak prices seen in early 2008. There were reports in early 2008 that excess liquidity available with Wall Street speculators had resulted in a near fourfold increase in funds deployed for speculation in commodities. Between 2003 and 2007, hedge funds speculating purely in commodities went up from $50 billion to a little over $200 billion. Today, the total funds deployed in commodity speculation is probably in excess of $350 billion, say some Wall Street observers. Sometime ago, one of the most celebrated commodity speculators from Wall Street, Jim Rodgers, was seen waving sugar packets before his host in a TV interview, declaring loudly that there was money to be made in commodities. However, the problem is, as commodity speculation results in excessive energy and food prices, it is bound to cause political disruptions in the developing world. For instance, India faces multiple risks from the rising energy and food prices. While the global investors recognise that robust growth is largely occurring in emerging economies like India, they are also seeing some serious medium-term risks posed by lack of policy coordination between the developed and developing economies at forums such as G-20.Recently, well-known economist Michael Spence articulated this issue quite well when he said there was an urgent need to guide the global economic system in a manner that the negative distributional effects are minimised in terms of overall growth outcomes. Put simply, it means those economies which have genuine growth potential over the next decade or so must be encouraged to act as engines of global growth in an orderly manner. Global policy-coordination mechanisms such as the G-20 should then create adequate incentive and accountability structures to make this happen.For instance, it is quite apparent that emerging economies like India and China cannot lead global growth if oil and other commodity prices move up beyond a point purely on a speculative basis. For oil and food dominate the consumption basket of over 40 per cent of the population in the developing societies. So ever rising energy and food prices are a political time bomb which would disrupt the economies of the South. This will be self-defeating for the global economic system. The responsibility then falls on the US to ensure that these commodity bubbles are checked in time.After the 2008 financial crises, there was a clear understanding that G-20 will create systems to watch asset bubbles and take timely corrective measures. But actions taken on the ground by developed economies are resulting in the opposite effect. The US is pumping more easy money into the system, fuelling speculative commodity price bubbles further. It also sees more dollar liquidity as a means to make its currency cheaper to somewhat thwart China's exports into America. Spence has rightly argued that the US thinks it can hurt developing economies like China, India and Brazil by excessively devaluing its currency. Actually, it ends up hurting the eurozone economies much more because growth in the emerging part of the world is relatively more domestically driven. However, emerging economies like India become vulnerable in terms of volatility capital flows. For instance, if the US's unilateral monetary actions end up hurting Europe badly and this results in some eurozone economies going into a deeper crises, then capital flows across the Atlantic can get seriously disrupted.India, for instance, is a net importer of energy and at a projected GDP growth of 8.5 to 9 per cent it will necessarily require net capital flows of at least $45 billion on a consistent basis to meet its higher current account deficit of 3.5-4 per cent-plus. So there is little doubt that India needs a steady flow of Western capital in the years to come.Unilateral monetary and currency actions by the US are not good for an orderly redistribution of global capital and output. There is too much fear of the unknown as we go into 2011. A lot more globally coordinated and mutually beneficial policy action is needed for economic imbalances to correct in a smooth and orderly manner.

 

The writer is Managing Editor, 'The Financial Express'

 

mk.venu@expressindia.com

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

ON A HOPE AND AN ELECTION

ALIA ALLANA 

 

How tempting it is to dismiss those elections. I'm forbidden from participating in politics but it is my birthright to be a political person. It is a right every citizen from every country should have. But Burma is not just any country," Daw Aung San Suu Kyi told me in an interview last month. So why hadn't she spoken out against the elections? "They did serve one function, they have provided an illusion of hope in these chaotic times." Elections and hope. When we cast a vote is it not hope that we are voting for? The coming year will see many gamechanging elections, primary amongst them is the referendum that is to take place on January 9 in Sudan. Sudan, Africa's largest country, is still reeling from the North-South civil war, one of Africa's longest running civil wars (1983-2005) that saw two million dead at the behest of President Omar al-Bashir. The war pitted the North, Muslim Arabs, against the South's Christians. An end to hostilities came in 2005 through the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The referendum is a core component of the CPA. It is unlikely that the South will choose to stay aligned with the government in Khartoum; it is also unlikely that Bashir will let go of power easily. The elephant in the room will most likely be Abyei, the 4,000 square mile lush province that is home to Sudan's oil fields. The bone of contention is over the Arab Misseriya tribe. Southerners accuse Bashir of forced migration: that he has sent settlers to Abyei in order to tilt the vote. Abyei therefore will not participate in the referendum. Should a North-South divorce take place, there is the very real possibility of renewed hostilities over natural resources. Yemen too goes to the polls for parliamentary elections in April 2011. The government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, weak and caged in, in Sana'a, faces threats from the Houthi insurgency in the North, the separatist movement in the South and the burgeoning Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula franchise. With a controversial electoral law passed merely a week ago, Saleh has alienated himself further, angering the opposition. Opposition to his government comes from the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) — a coalition of six parties that includes Islah, Yemen's main Islamist party. For much of the past two years, Saleh has been in dialogue with the JMP. They demand political reforms, namely a shift from a presidential regime to a proportional representation parliamentary system. With the passage of the new electoral law — whereby the election commission will be composed of judges rather than delegates represented in parliament — JMP alleges that Saleh is attempting to centralise power further. The fear is that, should Saleh carry forth, Islah has the capability of amassing armed tribesmen to agitate against the centre. This could lead to renewed hostilities and further instability. In June, Zimbabwe will vote on a constitutional referendum, a vote that has the possibility of bringing an end to the fraught alliance between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai's government of national unity. In the lead up to the referendum, Mugabe has already called for fresh elections prior to constitutional amendment. There is little doubt that Mugabe stole the election on June 27, 2008. Should another election take place without adequate reform, observers say there is the very real possibility of a re-run. Tsvangirai has rejected this call despite ZANU-PF's low popularity. South Africa's role as a mediator and facilitator will be brought to the fore. South African President Jacob Zuma is involved in drafting the roadmap to ensure elections are free and fair.

 

In another part of Africa, talk of succession is rife. Egyptians will head to the ballot for a presidential vote in September. For much of the past three decades, Hosni Mubarak has been the face of Egyptian politics. Mubarak is now 81 and in ill health, and

 

rumours circulate that he may step down, paving the way for his son, Gamal. Many have credited Gamal with renewing the economy. A former banker turned politician he enjoys support from Egypt's business class but he is unpopular with the military.

 

The fear is that Gamal's succession could set off a coup. The one candidate many looked towards for providing a genuine opposition to father and son, former IAEA chief Mohammed

 

ElBaradei, has shied away from political participation. It seems he is intent on constitutional reform. He enjoys popularity on Facebook but it is seldom seen on the streets of Cairo. However, his presence has altered the game, and it is he who likens the coming election to the one seen in Iran last year. Should Mubarak retain power, a green wave may take over the streets of Cairo.

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THE ONE LINE THAT SAYS IT ALL

 

 "No book worth its salt is meant to put you to sleep," says the garrulous shoemaker who narrates the Czech novelist Bohumil Hrabal's Dancing Lessons for the Advanced in Age (1964), "it's meant to make you jump out of bed in your underwear and run and beat the author's brains out." Thirty-three pages into what appears to be an unbroken highway of text, the reader might well wonder if that's a mission statement or an invitation. Dancing Lessons unfurls as a single, sometimes maddening sentence that ends after 117 pages without a period, giving the impression that the opinionated, randy old cobbler will go on jawing ad infinitum. But the gambit works. His exuberant ramblings gain a propulsion that would be lost if the comma splices were curbed, the phrases divided into sentences. And there's something about that slab of wordage that carries the eye forward, promising an intensity simply unattainable by your regularly punctuated novel.Hrabal wasn't the first to attempt the Very Long Sentence. The Polish novelist Jerzy Andrzejewski went even longer in The Gates of Paradise (1960), weaving several voices into a lurid and majestic 158-page run-on. An old priest listens to the contradictory confessions of some apparently holy but actually just horny French teenagers marching toward Jerusalem in the 13th-century Children's Crusade. A profusion of colons and dashes helps toggle among the multiple points of view, while repeated descriptions of crummy weather give the brain some breathing space. For a long time, Hrabal and Andrzejewski were the only practitioners of the sentence-long book I could find. Not many writers have had the nerve to go this route: you're locked in, committed to a rhythm and a certain claustrophobia. But might the format also be liberating? Joan Didion told The Paris Review in 1978: "What's so hard about that first sentence is that you're stuck with it. Everything else is going to flow out of that sentence. And by the time you've laid down the first two sentences, your options are all gone." Sticking to just one sentence, ironically, might keep your options perpetually open.The most famous mega-sentence in literature comes at the end of the book, not the beginning. Molly Bloom's monologue from Ulysses (and actually two long sentences, thanks to an often-overlooked period 17 pages in) — sets an impossibly high standard for the art of the run-on. It breathlessly binds together all that comes before while nearly obliterating it, permanently colouring the reader's memory in one final rush. It feels unstoppable, and then it stops.Molly's soliloquy is a touchstone for writers aiming to go long. A copy of Ulysses pops up in Green Coaster, the 33-page, single-sentence section that closes Jonathan Coe's brilliant novel The Rotters' Club (2001). (The BBC has reported that at 13,955 words, it is the longest sentence ever written in English.)Joyce also makes a cameo in the most recent candidate for the absurdly exclusive Book-as-Sentence club, the French novelist Mathias Énard's Zone (2008), just published in an English translation. At 517 pages, it's far longer than the Hrabal and Andrzejewski combined, though its status as a true single sentence is compromised by 23 chapter breaks that alleviate eye strain. The Very Long Sentence could be seen as a futile hedge against separation, an unwillingness to part from loved ones, the world, life itself. "I'm trying to say it all in one sentence, between one Cap and one period," William Faulkner wrote to Malcolm Cowley in 1944. "I'm still trying to put it all, if possible, on one pinhead." (Faulkner, no stranger to the mind-expanding possibilities of the very long sentence, was once credited with a 1,400-worder by the Guinness Book of World Records.) In this age of 140-character Twitter posts — not to mention a persistent undercurrent of minimalism in our literature — there's something profoundly rejuvenating about the very long sentence. For the sake of the novel, and ourselves, let's hope that Hrabal wasn't being prophetic when he wrote, four decades ago, "People twitter away like magpies and don't really care."Ed Park

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THE END OF IDEOLOGY, AGAIN

 

Over the past three years, American politics has been dominated by a liberal fantasy and a conservative freakout. The fantasy was the idea that Barack Obama, a one-term senator with an appealing biography and a silver tongue, would turn out to be Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Robert F. Kennedy and Mahatma Gandhi all rolled into one. This fantasy inspired a wave of 1960s-style enthusiasm, an unsettling personality cult (that "Yes We Can" video full of harmonising celebrities only gets creepier in hindsight) and a lot of over-the-top promises from Obama himself. It persuaded Democrats that the laws of politics had been suspended, and that every legislative goal they'd ever dreamed about was now within reach. It was even powerful enough to win President Obama a Nobel Peace Prize, just for being his amazing self.The freakout, which began in earnest during the long, hot health care summer of 2009, started from the same premise as the fantasy — that the Obama presidency really was capable of completely transforming American society and that we might be on the brink of a new New Deal or a greater Great Society. But to freaked-out conservatives, this seemed more like a nightmare than a dream. So they flipped the liberal script: Where Obama's acolytes were utopian, conservatives turned apocalyptic, pitting liberty against tyranny, freedom against socialism.This wasn't a congenial climate for bipartisanship, to put it mildly. The fantasy ensured that the Democrats would go for broke (quite literally, judging by the budget figures) on domestic policy — anything else, after all, would have been a waste of their world-historical moment. The freakout ensured that Republicans, in lockstep, would resist every proposal and vote "no" on every bill. (After all, to compromise with tyranny was no better than surrendering to it.)So Democrats hailed the death of conservatism and the dawn of a glorious new liberal epoch and then griped that Republicans wouldn't lend their support to its fulfillment. Republicans denounced President Obama as a Marxist and shrieked "you lie!" at him in the House chambers, and then they complained that he wouldn't listen to their ideas.But in the past month of lame-duck activity, we've witnessed a return to political normalcy. The Republican midterm sweep delivered the coup de grâce to the liberal fantasy. But it also dropped a lid, at least temporarily, on the conservative freakout. (It's hard to fret that much about the supposed Kenyan-Marxist radical in the White House when anything he accomplishes has to be co-signed by John Boehner.)In this brave new post-election world, lawmakers on both sides cut deals, traded horses, preened and whined for the cameras, and cast their votes on a mix of principle, pique and political self-interest, rather than just falling into line for or against the Obama agenda.Partisanship didn't disappear, but moderation repeatedly won out. Congress cut a big bipartisan deal on taxes and spending and then shot down a more partisan liberal budget. One of the most controversial items on the lame-duck agenda — the Dream Act, offering the children of illegal immigrants a path to citizenship — was defeated by bipartisan opposition. Two of the less controversial items — the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell" (supported by some 75 per cent of Americans, according to various polls) and the New Start arms control treaty (supported by nearly every Republican foreign policy hand) — passed by healthy margins.This return to normalcy is good news for fans of bipartisan comity and centrism for centrism's sake. And it might be good news for the country. In the end, some sort of bipartisanship will be required to pull America back from the fiscal precipice, and the productivity of this lame-duck December shows that cooperation between the two parties isn't as impossible as it seemed just a few months ago.But when it comes to the hard challenges ahead, comity won't be enough. Real courage is required as well. And this month's outbreak of bipartisanship was conspicuously yellow-bellied. Republicans and Democrats came together to cut taxes, raise spending, and give free health care to the first responders on 9/11. They indulged, in other words, in the kind of easy, profligate "moderation" that's done as much damage to the country over the years as the ideologies of either left or right.If that's all that the return to normalcy delivers, we'll be back to fantasies and freakouts soon enough.Ross Douthat

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

SPLITSVILLA, MANTRALAYA STYLE

RAKSHIT SONAWANE 

 

It is not unusual to find politicians hobnobbing with one another across the political spectrum and, at times, it is nothing more than posturing to send a message to an ally. But sometimes, it prompts a party to over-react. Like the Shiv Sena's tantrums after Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray visited the state BJP headquarters on December 20, and had tea with the state BJP president Sudhir Mungantiwar and a few others.Raj was at the Life Insurance Corporation's office at Nariman Point in South Mumbai for a meeting of the Janadhikar Sena, an MNS outfit modelled on the Sena's Sthaniya Lokadhikar Samiti, which runs unions in public sector undertakings and insists on jobs for sons of the soil. After his engagement, he went across the road to visit the BJP office, where he had tea.The incident raised eyebrows in political circles and some went overboard, speculating about a change in political alignments in the state. The Sena over-reacted and started casting aspersions on the BJP, its ally for over two decades. The Sena chief Bal Thackeray, executive president Uddhav Thackeray, their spokesperson Neelam Gorhe and the party newspaper Saamna tore, full throttle, into the BJP for entertaining their bete noire Raj. Saamna even reminded Mungantiwar that he had called Raj a test-tube baby of Sharad Pawar on September 26, 2010. It also remarked that "a person smoking a cigarette at a petrol pump can't get away by saying that he did not cause a fire" and that "we have never done this — wearing the mangalsutra of one and kissing someone else."The Sena has continued to vent its ire at the BJP and even threatened to boycott the NDA rally against corruption, despite the fact that NCP chief Sharad Pawar has visited Thackeray and dined with him at the latter's residence and the Sena has justified it as friendship beyond politics. The Sena's tantrums and the BJP's posturing have come at a time when all is not well with the saffron alliance. During a recent election, for a member to represent Jalgaon local bodies in the legislative council, the official BJP nominee Nikhil Khadse — the son of Eknath Khadse, the leader of the opposition in the assembly — was defeated by an independent Manish Jain — the son of NCP Rajya Sabha member Ishwarlal Jain — because the Sena supported Jain. Raj's tea party provided him and the BJP with an opportunity to posture against the Sena. The Sena's worry is the election due in 14 months to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), where it faces the uphill task of retaining power. The MNS has shattered the monopoly of the Sena on the "Marathi" and "jobs for locals" issues and emerged as a formidable rival. After making an impressive debut in the assembly last year by winning 13 seats, the MNS is poised to take on the Sena in the BMC polls. Besides, state minister Narayan Rane's son Nitesh has floated an organisation named "Swabhiman" that has been taking up civic issues, which indicates the likely emergence of yet another rival. The Sena is desperately making efforts to retain its hold on the BMC. It has launched a new outfit to try and win over the youth, the Yuva Sena, with Uddhav's son Aditya as its head. Thackeray Senior has also moved centre-stage again, and Uddhav is making an all-out effort to fortify the party. No wonder, then, that the Sena got jittery about the Raj-BJP tea party and overreacted to a meeting that could be innocuous. Neither alliances nor hobnobbing among politicians of different hues is new to Maharashtra. Recently, for instance, Vilasrao Deshmukh of the Congress and Chhagan Bhujbal of the NCP attended BJP leader Gopinath Munde's birthday bash. Alliances have not been sacrosanct, especially in local bodies. The NCP had tied up with the Sena and the BJP to wrest power from the Congress in the Pune municipal corporation three years ago, and supported an independent — industrialist Rahul Bajaj — for the Rajya Sabha in 2006, thereby ensuring the defeat of the Congress nominee Avinash Pande. The Congress, too, prevented the NCP from grabbing power in the Yeola municipal council (Yeola is Chhagan Bhujbal's constituency) by forming an alliance with the Sena, BJP and independents. The Sena supported Pratibha Patil in the presidential poll. The NCP has ditched the Congress in 18 local bodies, while the Congress has ditched the NCP in 25.Raj's hobnobbing with BJP leaders could have been dismissed as a harmless meeting, but for the Sena, it meant a lot more. The paranoia is a good indicator of the Sena's insecurities.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

STRATEGIC CLIMATE CHANGE

K. SUBRAHMANYAM 

 

The United States' joining of the two World Wars, the promotion of the United Nations, George Kennan's containment strategy, the Marshall Plan, the defence of South Korea, and the formation of NATO were policies and strategies that served US interests and international interests in the second half of the 20th century. The indiscriminate pactomania exploited by dictators, the terrible blunder of not understanding the nationalist fervour of wartime ally Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh, the crass opportunism of the "best and the brightest" that killed millions of Vietnamese, the toleration of the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis, the compromises and alliance with Mao Zedong, connivance at the genocide of millions of Cambodians, the use of religious extremism to fight Soviet forces in Afghanistan, and the use of nuclear proliferation to China and Pakistan as strategic policies, all arose out of the "arrogance of power" and led to the present situation where the US is vulnerable to terrorist attacks, its pre-eminence is challenged by China, and its core values are threatened in Asia.Unfortunately, there is not enough introspection in the US on past mistakes. The American debate is still in terms of a 20th century paradigm of nuclear confrontation, nuclear proliferation, and wars with conventional forces and increasing technological advancement. The arrogance of power still dominates the US strategic debate, and strategic communities in the rest of the world, including India, do not challenge the basic paradigms of the Americans, and tend to argue within that framework, mostly defensively and weakly. It cannot be a coincidence that A.Q. Khan was beginning to be used as an instrument of proliferation to China when George Bush Sr was director of the CIA. And it continued under the watch of National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose pro-Chinese proclivities were evident even recently, when he strongly supported a G-2 arrangement in financial governance. While the US establishment thought it could keep both proliferation to China and permissiveness for proliferation to Pakistan under control, it overlooked the risks of China and Pakistan having their own agenda. As The Nuclear Express, a book by Thomas Reed of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and Danny Stillman of the Los Alamos Laboratory makes clear, the Chinese leadership under Deng Xiaoping appears to have decided to use proliferation to Pakistan to countervail India and proliferation to North Korea to countervail South Korea and Japan. The Americans were so permissive of Pakistani proliferation in the '80s that they took to task their own CIA officer Richard Barlow for submitting an assessment on Pakistan reaching nuclear explosive capability by 1987. The sordid story of the harassment of Richard Barlow is set out in the book Nuclear Deception by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott Clark. What the Americans did not count on, presumably, was that the Chinese would conduct a nuclear weapon test for Pakistan in the Lop Nor test site, as they did on May 26, 1990. While the visit of Robert Gates, then deputy national security advisor, to Islamabad to dissuade President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and General Aslam Beg from going ahead with the test was projected to the world as an effort at avoiding a Pakistan-India nuclear confrontation, it is now quite clear their attempt at dissuading Pakistan failed. It is this crossing of the red line that led to the invocation of the Pressler Amendment and the breakdown in the military and aid relationship between the United States and Pakistan. One person who is now in a position to give a complete clarification of what happened in 1990 is Gates, now defence secretary. One wonders whether he would accept US responsibility for Pakistan going nuclear and developing the nuclear deterrent derivative of terrorism from it, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has done with respect to the development of jihadi terrorism. The main problem we face today is the inability of most of the US as well as Indian strategic communities to move out of the Cold War paradigm. Nuclear weapons are no longer a serious threat for international confrontation. This has been accepted by President Obama in his speech on the nuclear security summit of 13 April 2010. How to deal with states that use nuclear proliferation to illegitimate regimes to augment their influence and use terrorism as an instrument of state policy, is now the major common challenge India and the United States face. As has been emphasised in the joint statements issued in Washington on November 24, 2009 and in Delhi on November 8, 2010, the shaping of the future international order that will defend a pluralistic, secular and democratic world is the main task faced by both the US and India. This task cannot be addressed successfully unless the world order can be shaped by pluralistic, secular and democratic values and the challenges of religious extremism and oligarchic, one-party dictatorship can be successfully met. This task cannot be undertaken by the US alone, as it did the security and prosperity of the democratic order in the second half of the 20th century, because the challenge from China is not a military one, but the emergence of the foremost knowledge power in the world. The currency of power will be knowledge, and not missiles and nuclear warheads. Given China's fourfold superiority in terms of population and its rapid expansion in knowledge infrastructure, the US can meet this challenge only if it has a partner which shares the common goal of a democratic pluralistic world order. India is that partner. This necessitates a broad-based strategic dialogue between the US and the Indian strategic communities. On the US side, there must be a clear realisation of the very serious blunders committed in the second half of the 20th century by their own strategic establishment. On the Indian side, there has to be an effort at formulating independent strategic thinking and not merely to argue within the framework set by the US strategic establishment. While there are no signs that such a process has begun in the US or in India, it is a curious fact that those who led a major paradigm shift in US policy by a radical amendment to the international nuclear regime to accommodate India and rectify a past strategic blunder, all come from a small group of those who did not contribute to the blunders of Bush Sr, Carter, Brzezinski, et al.

 

The writer is a senior defence analyst

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

CURDLED MILK

 

Predictably, the nuclear power bonhomie between India and the US didn't take too long to disappear. Barely weeks after President Barack Obama wowed Indian MPs, the US agriculture secretary Thomas Vilsack has written an angry letter to agriculture minister Sharad Pawar saying that the bilateral agricultural relationship between the two countries will get jeopardised if India doesn't change its approach. India's stance on US dairy products, it appears, is the main reason behind the letter. The Indian stance is that US dairy products do not certify that animals were "never fed feeds produced from internal organs, blood meal and tissues of ruminant origin", and so cannot be imported as this will hurt religious sentiment in India. The US view is that if the feed is not given for a month or so, the animal remnant will disappear, but the Indian side is not willing to allow this relaxation.

 

Whether the issue gets sorted out in a hurry remains to be seen, but it is worth keeping in mind that India has its own list of similar US trade barriers. In any case, it is difficult to see what the US beef is, given as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner wrote in HT, India's exports to the US grew around 40% between 2004 and 2009 while US exports to India grew nearly 170% during the same period. As a result, trade surplus between the two countries fell from $7.9bn in 2005-06 to $2.6bn in 2009-10 (it's still a trade surplus for India, but one that is vastly reduced). On even the agricultural front, while India's agriculture exports to the US declined from $1.3bn in 2006 to $1.2bn in 2009, US exports to India more than doubled to $691bn. One reason for the slow pick-up in agriculture trade is the mismatch between the export and import basket of the two countries. The major US food exports last year were soya beans, meat and corn, which accounted for 40% of the US food exports. Indian imports of these commodities were negligible. The US exports of the two major food products imported by India, namely vegetable oil and sugar, were also negligible. The only area where some broad synergies exist are in vegetable products and fruits, but even here the import basket varies as the most popular items are tropical products. In the case of dairy products, where India's restrictive regulations have upset the US, India's imports last year were a mere $80mn—the US exported $2bn of dairy products, but given how Indian imports are so low, it's difficult to see how even a change in regulations would help. Dairy products, it has to be said, form a minuscule proportion of US farm exports. Both countries have a long way to go to eliminate trade barriers, especially since the WTO negotiations are going nowhere, but such knee-jerk reactions won't help.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

INCUMBENCY FACTOR

 

We've all heard of anti-incumbency factor, but is there such a thing as an incumbency factor? Economists Poonam Gupta and Arvind Panagariya, in a paper presented at Columbia University last month, argue that incumbency is a major plus point provided it is matched with economic performance that is above the norm. Indeed, the day after Nitish Kumar swept the Bihar assembly polls, former chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani sent out a 2004 paper, which modelled voting patterns on economic growth. For those who wonder why the NDA lost despite India Shining, Virmani points out economic growth during the Vajpayee years was actually lower than in the previous five. Gupta and Panagariya use the results of the 2009 elections and point out that, in case the state has witnessed high economic growth (such as Bihar), incumbents win 85% of seats contested; in case the growth is low, incumbents win just a little over 30% of seats contested. Put another way, if growth is 2 percentage points above the national average, the probability of the incumbent winning rises by 14 percentage points. The other piece of good news is that

 

education helps in candidates winning. In 2009, there was no illiterate candidate that won, those who had studied up to just Class V had a 12% chance of winning, undergraduates had a 23% chance of winning while those with a post-graduate had a 29% chance of winning.

 

That's the good news. The bad news is that being wealthy matters—those with Rs 5 lakh of wealth had a 3% chance of winning versus 41% for those with Rs 5 crore; as does having a criminal record—those without a criminal record had a 20% probability of winning as compared to 41% if they had 10 criminal cases against them. The ideal candidate, Gupta and Panagariya conclude, is a male in his mid-50s, with average assets of Rs 6 crore, at least an undergraduate degree and with a 30% chance he's got at least one criminal case against him.

 

What does it tell you about the next elections? Given that the UPA is in power in more states, being a UPA candidate is better than being an NDA one. But given how the UPA states are doing vis-à-vis the NDA ones like Bihar, this could be a vital swing factor. Predicting elections is always a mug's game, but it's safe to say the next round of election models will factor in economic growth as well.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

WHERE'S THE PRIME MINISTER?

SUBHOMOY BHATTACHARJEE

 

The year 2010 will close out as the first year after a long time when the Prime Minister and the industry had no dialogue on any issue. In a year when corporate India faced a tsunami of allegations, the silence from the government was a huge disappointment.

 

The only time industry leaders met Manmohan Singh was early this year in May when the reconstituted council on trade and industry met for the first time after the UPA-2 came to power. The meeting set up sub-committees to debate apparently earth-shaking topics like financial inclusion and backward area development! I will come to those later, but in 2010, Singh basically refrained from making himself available for a dialogue with the industry.

 

'Closed for business' is the impression one would take away about the role of government from this year. The distancing of industry issues from the top echelons of the government meant no one was listening to what industry wanted. The thinking is since the sector is presumably in an auto mode, it will continue to deliver a 9% and more GDP growth rate, year after year, despite getting kicked around at times.

 

Just compare the turn of events with the push for engagement from 2004 to 2006. The first council for trade and industry itself came into being just four months after the government was formed, in September 2004. The present one took nine months to get off the ground, in April this year.

 

These are, of course, the gross indicators. But getting deeper, the variety of engagement of the UPA-1 government after it came to power with industry is amazingly absent in the present government. This is why we are in the process of creating a record of sorts for non-engagement in 2010. In 2005 calendar year, for instance, Singh set up the National Knowledge Commission, gave his blessings to the Investment Commission and established the manufacturing competitiveness initiative that developed into a full-fledged council. In the same year, he made a memorable speech addressing industry asking it to think big and into the future and laid out detailed business plan for each ministry that included specific directions to expand foreign and domestic investment in each sector. He also found time to set up a committee on the information, communication and entertainment sectors. That pace continued into the next year, too.

 

Not many would now remember that at significant meetings of industry chambers, Rahul Gandhi was then a regular visitor. He listened attentively, though, of course, never venturing any opinion. In 2010, Rahul has not met industry leaders at any structured sessions, though he has found time to tell rallies in Jharkhand and Orissa; he is the sipahi of the tribals in Delhi.

 

Possibly taking a cue from there, the Prime Minister has used a reference to industry on only three occasions this year. At a speech in early January, telling industry that workers should be partners in growth; asking industry to partner in the rehabilitation of Leh after the flash floods; besides, of course, at the meeting with the council for trade and industry.

 

The meeting of the council on trade and industry that brings together the best of India Inc is in itself an example of how substantive issues were kept out of the agenda. The sub-committees do not look at land issues, the green challenge for industry, mundane but critical issues like direct taxes code or GST, or even worker management issues.

 

Government managers would say that institutional forums are not where substantive issues get sorted out. But there is no evidence other channels have been opened up meanwhile, at least if they have, few of us are aware of it. Making institutional channels moribund sure sets a bad precedent. The Investment Commission, in UPA-1, for instance, had a clear mandate to typically address the brick and mortar issues that plagued industry, but that one is history now.

 

That this ocean of silence creates a crisis does not need to be made clear. The Ratan Tata letter or the subsequent comments by Deepak Parekh and Kris Gopalakrishnan are good enough examples.

 

Erasing the channels does something else. It tells industry they are not welcome to the party, which is absurd. This is not about whether sections of the industry have or have not misused their money power to bend rules. Instead, closing of the government to an open dialogue encourages the entrepreneurs to cultivate favourites within the establishment. So this develops a very nice environment for sections within the government and industry to create a cosy club where only those invited can exchange approvals for money. Did someone say, crony capitalism?

 

When the leadership of the party sells this approach, others follow. If Singh or Sonia Gandhi do not have the time to speak to industry at any fora, ministers will also make it a point to avoid these appointments. To get a sense of this drift, just see the pace at which the National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council assiduously sought the views of the industry and the lacklustre way the department of industrial policy and promotion has now handled the debate on entry of foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail.

 

No wonder, industry is bending over backwards to figure out what the party wants. Some of those will come up when the pre-Budget meeting with the industry comes round in January. But making the industry play the fall guy for the government misadventures of half a century is not the best way to push the growth rate in the economy.

 

subhomoy.bhattacharjee@expressindia.com

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

GOOD MEDICINE

NAVROZ MAHUDAWALA

 

It has been a mixed year for the Indian pharmaceutical industry with some memorable domestic M&A deals; however, limited activity was witnessed on the outbound M&A scenario and negligible activity on the IPO front. The year would certainly be remembered for two large deals—Abbott-Nicholas and Reckitt-Paras. However, in retrospect, there are some crucial trends and events that we need to take cognisance of.

 

While the businesses differ vastly, the Abbott-Nicholas and the Reckitt-Paras deal had several similarities. Both were unique assets with strong domestic franchisees. Both were acquired by players who, till the deal happened, had limited presence in the domestic market and had struggled to build a dominating presence vis-à-vis their global stature. While the Nicholas deal was at an astounding EV/EBITDA of 27 (x); the Paras deal occurred at EV/EBITDA of 30(x)!

 

If the next deal is going to be a scalable domestic branded business, it is unlikely that multiples are going to go down drastically. Both these deals in some way have redefined the way global companies view Indian businesses and we believe this trend will continue.

 

The growth numbers reported in the domestic formulations market surprised even the optimistic industry players. In fact, the domestic business plan continues to be the saviour for many Indian majors whose global P&Ls continue to bleed. We believe there are several companies today wherein the domestic P&L would be generating EBITDA margins of 30%-plus; however, regulated market P&Ls would be incurring losses.

 

Most promoters in 2010 continued to focus on the domestic market and we believe this enhanced focus by entrepreneurs would continue to drive a 14-16% growth in 2011.

 

Except for the logical closure of the Sun-Taro battle, there was limited activity in the outbound space. The restraint helped! It's highly unlikely we are going to witness a Betapharm deal in a hurry. We expect the majority of the outbound deals in 2011 to continue to be sub-$ 100 million.

 

Pharma as a sector performed incredibly with scrips of several leading players giving a 40%-plus return in 2010.

 

However, the expected recovery of CRAMs business in 2010 did not materialise. In fact, CRAMs has been a severe laggard with a player like Dishman almost losing 40% of its market cap this year.

 

Billion dollar babies

 

Acquiring an Indian company may become increasingly a tall order for the global generic world (as against Teva's market cap of $46.7 bn, Sun Pharma is $10.3 bn, DRL $6.7 bn, and Cipla $6.4 bn). Except a Teva, none of the others seem to have the requisite 'market cap firepower'. Thus, like a Ranbaxy/Daiichi or a Nicholas/Abbott; in all likelihood we will see an innovator on the buy side make the next deal happen.

 

]Be rest assured, there will be far more names on this list when we take stock next year!

 

The author is founder & managing director of Candle Partners, a boutique Investment Bank specialising in advising Indian entrepreneurial companies

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EAVESDROPPER

 

THANK GOD SHE'S EXPENSIVE

Things could have got a lot worse for the Congress party in the Raja-Radia scam. Environment minister Jairam Ramesh was asked if he knew Radia and why there were no Congresspersons she was caught on tape with. Ramesh said he'd never met her but came close to doing so last year when she'd pitched for the party's election campaign. Luckily, the Rs 8 crore quote was too high and it was given at a fraction of the cost to another PR firm.

 

INDIA, NOT PAKISTAN

With the government threatening to move on the TRAI recommendation that all 15 of Etisalat DB's mobile licences given by ex-minister A Raja be cancelled, the company is trying to do some public relations. A PR agency has been hired to poll journalists—helpfully, an internal mail got sent out, giving details of which PR executive is to tap which journalist. Journalists are being asked if they know the difference between the UAE-based Etisalat and the Indian firm Etisalat DB; about whether they know why the parent decided to venture into India. Journalists are then asked if they feel the fact that Etisalat has operations in Pakistan is likely to be a problem—the question is juxtaposed with "What do you think the government will decide?", referring to the action telecom minister Kapil Sibal was likely to take. At least one journalist told the PR firm that Etisalat's Pakistan connection was less of a problem vis-à-vis its India connection.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

SMS POWER

 

Modern-day banks, always wanting to up security, generate a random code each time you login and send this to you via SMS—you can't log in without this. Assuming the hacker hasn't stolen your phone as well, that's another layer of security built in. High-value prescription drugs, IE reported last week, encourage users to enter a string of numbers on the packaging, and send this to a central number, to get to know if the drugs are kosher. All via SMS of course. Nandan Nilekani's Unique ID project works on a model that allows you to SMS your biometrics (the biometric phone, at a reasonable price, is probably a year or two away) to 946-26-4 (that's WhoAmI on a standard alpha-numeric keypad)—by return SMS you get a confirmation as to whether you're who you say you are. Savvy state governments routinely SMS details to users of rations dispatched and stocks available in various shops, you can SMS money to different parts of the country...

 

The flipside is what focusing on just 160 characters—the standard length of an SMS—does to the English language which, The Economist tells us, grew at 8,500 words a year in the second half of the 20th century to reach over a million words now. No, don't reach for the

 

Oxford English Dictionary, to multiply the number of words by the number of pages. Using the OED isn't quite QED (quod erat demonstrandum) since, The Economist says, it contains just half the number of words in the English language. If you think what the SMS is doing is bad, consider that Twitter allows just 140 character tweets. With 190 mn users generating 65 mn tweets a day, that's a lot of twits out there.

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

GUJJAR AGITATION, ONCE AGAIN

 

The ongoing agitation by the Gujjar community in Rajasthan is a reminder of the dangers of playing competitive caste politics. The immediate provocation for the agitation, which has erupted time and again on the reservation issue over the past five years, was the State government's decision to recruit people for 100,000 posts — jobs to which the Gujjars, who have been demanding a five per cent reservation, want the quota extended. Although both the ruling Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party declare their commitment to giving them a five per cent quota in government jobs and educational institutions, the problem lies in giving effect to this. At one level there is the legal impediment, something the Rajasthan High Court called attention to recently when it stayed the operation of a 2008 Act that provided reservations for various caste groups, including the Gujjars. The level of reservation under this please-all Act, which earmarked quotas for poor upper castes as well, increased to 68 per cent, considerably above the 50 per cent limit set by the Supreme Court in the Mandal case. At another level there are serious practical problems about extending a special quota for Gujjars. It was the Rajasthan unit of the BJP that promised to include Gujjars, a pastoral community, in the Scheduled Tribes list in the run-up to the 2003 election, which it won. But the violent opposition this evoked from the numerically stronger Meena community saw the State government back down.

 

While the violence and disruption that has attended Gujjar agitations for reservation must be roundly condemned, it must be recognised that the resentment of the community is largely a result of cynical vote-seeking politics. The anger and political consolidation within the community assumed worrying dimensions only after the Vajpayee government decided to reclassify Jats as an 'Other Backward Class'. Having promised the Gujjars ST status in 2003, BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje was forced to expend considerable time and energy in trying to appease the community with all manner of sops. Eventually, she bought time by declaring a new quota regime that classified Gujjars as a "separate backward community," a proposal that found expression in the legally unsustainable 2008 Act that now stands suspended by the Rajasthan High Court. In a bid to woo communities, political parties often forget that the reservation pie is limited and that any attempt to provide quotas for one community will have adverse implications for others. This is exactly what has happened in Rajasthan. And the cost has been an intermittent cycle of agitation, social unrest, and violence.

 

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

REVOLUTIONARY TEST FOR TB

 

A new test developed for diagnosing active tuberculosis is set to revolutionise treatment of a disease that kills 1.8 million people round the world every year. It recently won approval from the World Health Organisation for a worldwide rollout over the next few years. The approval comes within three months of publication in the New England Journal of Medicine ("Rapid molecular detection of tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance," by Catharina C. Boehme et al.,) of the results of a trial conducted on 1,700 patients in five countries, including India. The new test has several advantages over the currently used smear microscopy and conventional nucleic acid-amplification method. While the sensitivity of smear microscopy is about 50 per cent, this (Xpert MTB/RIF) has 72 per cent sensitivity with one test, and 90 per cent with three tests in the case of smear-negative patients. The sensitivity goes up to 98 per cent in the case of smear-positive and culture-positive patients. Xpert has 99 per cent specificity. Further, the test's ability to provide reliable results within two hours, compared with 4-6 weeks in the case of culture, will help begin treatment earlier and reduce the chances of an individual infecting others. The greatest beneficiaries will be those co-infected with HIV and TB. The long wait for the results before starting TB treatment is one of the main reasons for the death of many co-infected individuals.

 

Unlike smear microscopy, Xpert can identify rifampicin drug resistance. It correctly identified 98 per cent of bacteria that were resistant to rifampicin. In India and many other countries where multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) is not high, much of the testing that goes on now is mainly for diagnosing active TB and not for drug resistance. But Xpert is all set to change this: rifampicin resistance is an excellent marker of MDR-TB. Most patients who are resistant to rifampicin are also resistant to isoniazid drug. Patients who are resistant to rifampicin will need culture to find out which drugs work for them. Following this protocol before starting the treatment will go a long way in preventing MDR-TB from becoming widespread. There is one major problem, however: the diagnostic test is prohibitively expensive. India being one of the high-burden countries, the public sector and certain NGOs will be eligible for a special pricing agreement. Uninterrupted power supply and temperature control, which are essential, will turn out to be major challenges in rural areas. India must find ways to embrace this technology swiftly after necessary field testing — considering that TB kills two Indians every three minutes.

 

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THE HINDU

LEADER PAGE ARTICLES

OF LUXURY CARS AND LOWLY TRACTORS

EVEN AS THE MEDIA CELEBRATE THE MERCEDES BENZ DEAL IN THE MARATHWADA REGION AS A SIGN OF "RURAL RESURGENCE," THE LATEST DATA SHOW THAT 17,368 FARMERS KILLED THEMSELVES IN THE YEAR OF THE "RESURGENCE."

P. SAINATH

 

When businessmen from Aurangabad in the backward Marathwada region bought 150 Mercedes Benz luxury cars worth Rs. 65 crore at one go in October, it grabbed media attention. The top public sector bank, State Bank of India, offered the buyers loans of over Rs. 40 crore. "This," says Devidas Tulzapurkar, president of the Aurangabad district bank employees association, "at an interest rate of 7 per cent." A top SBI official said the bank was "proud to be part of this deal," and would "continue to scout for similar deals in the future."

 

The value of the Mercedes deal equals the annual income of tens of thousands of rural Marathwada households. And countless farmers in Maharashtra struggle to get any loans from formal sources of credit. It took roughly a decade and tens of thousands of suicides before Indian farmers got loans at 7 per cent interest — many, in theory only. Prior to 2005, those who got any bank loans at all shelled out between 9 and 12 per cent. Several were forced to take non-agricultural loans at even higher rates of interest. Buy a Mercedes, pay 7 per cent interest. Buy a tractor, pay 12 per cent. The hallowed micro-finance institutions (MFIs) do worse. There, it's smaller sums at interest rates of between 24 and 36 per cent or higher.

 

Starved of credit, peasants turned to moneylenders and other informal sources. Within 10 years from 1991, the number of Indian farm households in debt almost doubled from 26 per cent to 48.6 per cent. A crazy underestimate but an official number. Many policy-driven disasters hit farmers at the same time. Exploding input costs in the name of 'market-based prices.' Crashing prices for their commercial crops, often rigged by powerful traders and corporations. Slashing of investment in agriculture. A credit squeeze as banks moved away from farm loans to fuelling upper middle class lifestyles. Within the many factors driving over two lakh farmers to suicide in 13 years, indebtedness and the credit squeeze rank high. (And MFIs are now among the squeezers).

 

What remained of farm credit was hijacked. A devastating piece in The Hindu (Aug. 13) showed us how. Almost half the total "agricultural credit" in the State of Maharashtra in 2008 was disbursed not by rural banks but by urban and metro branches. Over 42 per cent of it in just Mumbai — stomping ground of large corporations rather than of small farmers.

 

Even as the media celebrate our greatest car deal ever as a sign of "rural resurgence," the subject of many media stories, comes the latest data of the National Crime Records Bureau. These show a sharp increase in farm suicides in 2009 with at least 17,368 farmers killing themselves in the year of "rural resurgence." That's over 7 per cent higher than in 2008 and the worst numbers since 2004. This brings the total farm suicides since 1997 to 216,500. While all suicides have multiple causes, their strong concentration within regions and among cash crop farmers is an alarming and dismal trend.

 

The NCRB, a wing of the Union Home Ministry, has been tracking farm suicide data since 1995. However, researchers mostly use their data from 1997 onwards. This is because the 1995 and 1996 data are incomplete. The system was new in 1995 and some big States such as Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan sent in no numbers at all that year. (In 2009, the two together saw over 1,900 farm suicides). By 1997, all States were reporting and the data are more complete.

 

The NCRB data end at 2009 for now. But we can assume that 2010 has seen at least 16,000 farmers' suicides. (After all, the yearly average for the last six years is 17,104). Add this 16,000 to the total 2,16,500. Also add the incomplete 1995 and 1996 numbers — that is 24,449 suicides. This brings the 1995-2010 total to 2,56,949. Reflect on this figure a moment.

 

It means over a quarter of a million Indian farmers have committed suicide since 1995. It means the largest wave of recorded suicides in human history has occurred in this country in the past 16 years. It means one-and-a-half million human beings, family members of those killing themselves, have been tormented by the tragedy. While millions more face the very problems that drove so many to suicide. It means farmers in thousands of villages have seen their neighbours take this incredibly sad way out. A way out that more and more will consider as despair grows and policies don't change. It means the heartlessness of the Indian elite is impossible to imagine, leave alone measure.

 

Note that these numbers are gross underestimates to begin with. Several large groups of farmers are mostly excluded from local counts. Women, for instance. Social and other prejudice means that, most times, a woman farmer killing herself is counted as suicide — not as a farmer's suicide. Because the land is rarely in a woman's name.

 

Then there is the plain fraud that some governments resort to. Maharashtra being the classic example. The government here has lied so many times that it contradicts itself thrice within a week. In May this year, for instance, three 'official' estimates of farm suicides in the worst-hit Vidarbha region varied by 5,500 per cent. The lowest count being just six in four months (See "How to be an eligible suicide," The Hindu, May 13, 2010).

 

The NCRB figure for Maharashtra as a whole in 2009 is 2,872 farmers' suicides. So it remains the worst State

for farm suicides for the tenth year running. The 'decline' of 930 that this figure represents would be joyous if true. But no State has worked harder to falsify reality. For 13 years, the State has seen a nearly unrelenting rise. Suddenly, there's a drop of 436 and 930 in 2008 and 2009. How? For almost four years now, committees have functioned in Vidarbha's crisis districts to dismiss most suicides as 'non-genuine.' What is truly frightening is the Maharashtra government's notion that fixing the numbers fixes the problem.

 

Yet that problem is mounting. Perhaps the State most comparable to Maharashtra in terms of population is West Bengal. Though its population is less by a few million, it has more farmers. Both States have data for 15 years since 1995. Their farm suicide annual averages in three-five year periods starting then are revealing. Maharashtra's annual average goes up in each period. From 1,963 in the five years ending with 1999 to 3,647 by 2004. And scaling 3,858 by 2009. West Bengal's yearly average registers a gradual drop in each five-year period. From 1,454 in 1999 to 1,200 in 2004 to 1,014 by 2009. While it has more farmers, its farm suicide average for the past five years is less than a third of Maharashtra's. The latter's yearly average has almost doubled since 1999.

 

The share of the Big 5 'suicide belt' States — Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — remains close to two-thirds of all farm suicides. Sadly 18 of 28 States reported higher farm suicide numbers in 2009. In some the rise was negligible. In others, not. Tamil Nadu showed the biggest increase of all States, going from 512 in 2008 to 1060 in 2009. Karnataka clocked in second with a rise of 545. And Andhra Pradesh saw the third biggest rise — 309 more than in 2008. A few though did see a decline of some consequence in their farm suicide annual average figures for the last six years. Three — Karnataka, Kerala and West Bengal — saw their yearly average fall by over 350 in 2004-09 compared to the earlier seven years.

 

Things will get worse if existing policies on agriculture don't change. Even States that have managed some decline across 13 years will be battered. Kerala, for instance, saw an annual average of 1,371 farm suicides between 1997 and 2003. From 2004-09, its annual average was 1016 — a drop of 355. Yet Kerala will suffer greatly in the near future. Its economy is the most globalised of any State. Most crops are cash crops. Any volatility in the global prices of coffee, pepper, tea, vanilla, cardamom or rubber will affect the State. Those prices are also hugely controlled at the global level by a few corporations.

 

Already bludgeoned by the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), Kerala now has to contend with the one we've gotten into with ASEAN. And an FTA with the European Union is also in the offing. Kerala will pay the price. Even prior to 2004, the dumping of the so-called "Sri Lankan pepper" (mostly pepper from other countries brought in through Sri Lanka) ravaged the State. Now, we've created institutional frameworks for such dumping. Economist Professor K. Nagaraj, author of the biggest study of farm suicides in India, says: "The latest data show us that the agrarian crisis has not relented, not gone away." The policies driving it have also not gone away.

 

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THE HINDU

OPED

INDIA CHASING A U.N. CHIMERA    

PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS, POSITIVE AFFIRMATIONS AND SLAP-ON-THE-BACK RELATIONSHIPS DO NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO ACTION ON THE GROUND.

K.S. DAKSHINA MURTHY

 

In recent years it has become standard practice for the Indian media to ask visiting foreign dignitaries where they stand on New Delhi's claim to a permanent seat in the UNSC. If the answers are in the affirmative, there are smiles all round and the glow is then transmitted to readers or viewers as the case may be.

 

Among the Permanent Five in the Council, the United Kingdom has long affirmed support, so have France and Russia. China has remained non-committal. So the United States' stand was deemed crucial. When President Barack Obama, during his recent visit, backed India for a permanent seat, the joy was palpable. The media went to town as if it were just a matter of time before India joined the select group of the World's almighty. The happiness lasted a few days until the first tranche of WikiLeaks punctured the mood somewhat.

 

The revelation of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's classified whisper, describing India as a self-appointed front-runner exposed Washington's innermost thoughts on the subject. Though the embarrassing leak was subsequently sought to be played down, it opened the curtain to a larger truth which is that the U.S. and the other four have never really been interested in real reforms to the Security Council.

 

Public pronouncements, positive affirmations and slap-on-the-back relationships don't necessarily translate into action on the ground.

 

Reforms

Jakob Silas Lund of the Centre for U.N. Reform Education states a few individuals within the process believe that some of the Permanent Five countries "are more than happy to see reform moving at near-zero-velocity speed".

 

The reforms are open to interpretation. Broadly, they mean democratisation of the Security Council to make it representative and in tune with the contemporary world. This, for some, means more permanent members. The Group of four — India, Brazil, Japan and Germany — has been the most vocal in demanding it be included.

 

What is surprising, especially where India is concerned, is the hope and optimism that it is heading towards a permanent seat. In reality, a committee set up by the United Nations 17 years ago to go into reforms shows little signs of progress.

 

The first meeting was held in 1994 of the U.N. group, a mouthful, called the "Open-Ended Working Group on the Question of Equitable Representation and Increase in the Membership of the Security Council and Other Matters Related to the Security Council". Until now, this group has completed four rounds of negotiations, just on preliminaries.

 

A brief peek into the past will make it clear that the addition of more veto-wielding permanent members to the Council is a veritable pipe dream. For any amendment to the U.N. charter, two-thirds of the General Assembly needs to acquiesce. This may be possible but the next requirement, that of ratification by the Permanent Five, is the real obstacle.

 

Since the formation of the United Nations in 1945, there have been only a handful of meetings of the Security Council to discuss the original charter, and even that, merely to discuss minor amendments. One of some significance came about in 1965 when the membership of temporary, non-veto powered countries in the Council was increased from six to 10 and the number of votes required to pass any decision increased to nine from seven.

 

As academic and U.N. commentator Thomas G. Weiss wrote in the Washington Quarterly, "Most governments rhetorically support the mindless call for equity, specifically by increasing membership and eliminating the veto. Yet, no progress has been made on these numerical or procedural changes because absolutely no consensus exists about the exact shape of the Security Council or the elimination of the veto."

 

The argument for a bigger, more representative Council is undoubtedly valid but the issue is who will implement it and how.

 

U.S. is the prime mover

 

In today's global equation the U.S. is the acknowledged prime mover. It has already had to sweat it out to convince the other four members to go with it on several issues, like the sanctions against Iran. If more countries are allowed to join the Council the difficulties for U.S. interests are obvious, even if those included are vetted for their closeness to Washington.

 

Real and effective reforms should have meant democratisation of the Security Council to reflect the aspirations of all its members. Ideally, this should mean removal of permanency and the veto power to be replaced with a rotating membership for all countries, where each one big or small, powerful or weak gets to sit for a fixed term in the hallowed seats of the Council. This is unthinkable within the existing framework of the United Nations. At the heart of the issue is the reluctance of the Permanent Five to give up the prized veto power.

 

The situation is paradoxical given that democracy is being touted, pushed and inflicted by the U.S. across the world. But democracy seems to end where the Security Council begins. The rest of the world has no choice but to bow to its decisions. The consequences for defying the Council can be terrifying as was experienced by Saddam Hussein's Iraq through the 1990's. Iran is now on the receiving end for its defiance on the nuclear issue.

 

Not just that, the credibility of the Security Council itself took a beating over its inability to prevent the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Having failed to convince France, Russia and China to vote for invading Iraq, the U.S. went alone. The Council was reduced to a bystander. It failed to fulfil its primary task, that of ensuring security — to Iraq.

 

What this also implies is that Council or no Council, in today's unipolar world, the U.S. will go with what it decides and no one can stop it. This has been the case particularly since the end of the Cold War. "With a U.S. global presence as great as that of any empire in history, Security Council efforts to control U.S. actions are beginning to resemble the Roman Senate's efforts to control the emperor," writes Weiss.

 

Instead of trying to clamber onto a patently unfair arrangement it would have made more sense if the four self-appointed front-runners along with the rest of the world had demanded a more equitable and representative Council.

 

To achieve this, academic and U.N. expert Erik Voeten suggests pressure tactics to counter veto power. One tactic is for countries en bloc to ignore the decisions taken in the Security Council. Another is for Germany and Japan, which are among the largest contributors to the United Nations, to turn off the tap.

Despite this, if nothing happens, countries may have no choice but to look for, or at least threaten to float, an alternative U.N.-like organisation whose structure would be more in tandem with the contemporary world. Idealistic, perhaps. But this should force the Permanent Five to sit up and take real notice.

 

( K.S. Dakshina Murthy was formerly Editor of Al Jazeera based in Doha, Qatar.)

 

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THE HINDU

2010: India's undeclared year of Africa

Developments seem to have put the engagement with the continent on a fast track.

Rajiv Bhatia

 

An objective evaluation of changing contours of our engagement with Africa, especially in light of significant developments in 2010, might interest Africa watchers and others.

 

Conceptual richness and consistency appear to characterise recent interactions, although their impact may still take a while to be felt tangibly.

 

Backdrop

 

If the period from our Independence to the end of the 1980s was marked by India's close involvement with Africa in political affairs, peacekeeping, training, culture and education, the 1990s turned out to be a lost decade. That was the time when policy makers were busy trying to re-adapt India's foreign policy to the post-Cold War world. Subsequently, the Africans' unhappiness with their neglect by India, China's rapidly growing profile on the continent, and the enhanced dynamism of India Inc. combined to initiate a renewal of India-Africa relations. The Government's three initiatives, namely the 'Focus Africa Programme' under Exim policy for 2002-07, the 'Techno-Economic Approach for Africa and India Movement' or TEAM-9 programme, launched in 2004 to upgrade economic relations with West Africa, and the Pan-African e-Network started in 2007, helped in sending the signal that India had not vacated space in Africa for others.

 

In this backdrop, the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) in 2008 represented a veritable high point, showcasing a new, vibrant India as well as its reinvigorated Africa policy. The following year was a relative disappointment. But, developments during 2010 seem to have put India's engagement with Africa on a fast track.

 

Highlights

 

India played host to at least eight high-level African dignitaries, one each from the Seychelles, Ghana, South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia. Visits by presidents, prime ministers and other VIPs throughout the year demonstrated that Africa was keen to expand political and development cooperation with India. Armando Guebuza, President of Mozambique, endorsed India's approach towards Africa, expressing readiness "to raise the (bilateral relationship) to a strategic partnership." Hailemariam Desalegn, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, chose to accord high importance to economic issues. Following a productive meeting of the joint commission, the two sides decided, "to infuse the close political relationship with greater economic content." The visit by South African President Jacob Zuma helped in re-defining the bilateral agenda and re-launching the joint CEOs Forum.

 

Happily, Indian leaders found time to visit Africa in 2010. Vice-President Hamid Ansari's three-country tour covering Zambia, Malawi and Botswana was a notable success. Given his credentials, he was able to evoke old memories of deep political and emotional affinity as well as highlight mutuality of interests and the need for expansion of economic cooperation, thus lending a contemporary character to age-old ties. That he backed it with the announcement of credits and grants (for the three countries) amounting to about $200 million, in addition to credit lines valued at $60 million that were operational prior to the visit, showed India's new strength. This was on display again as the Government agreed to arrange major lines of credits for others: $705 million for Ethiopia for sugar and power sector development and $500 million for Mozambique for infrastructure, agriculture and energy projects.

 

The decision by the IAFS to set aside $5.4 billion for lines of credit and $500 million for human resource development during a five-year period means that now nearly $1 billion a year is available for cooperation with Africa. Utilising India's new financial muscle, an ambitious expansion of training programmes for the benefit of Africans is being attempted at present.

 

External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna got a direct feel of issues and personalities on his visit to the Seychelles, Mauritius and Mozambique. As these are all Indian Ocean countries, the strategic dimension of cooperation, especially relating to piracy, terrorism and changing foreign maritime presence, received considerable attention during his discussions. Later the minister, talking to a group of African journalists visiting India, emphasised that our relationship with Africa had "transformed", with the two sides becoming "development partners looking out for each other's interests and well-being."

 

Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma undertook visits to South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya. He was instrumental in facilitating and moulding business-to-business dialogues in all the countries visited, with the help of organisations such as the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). For business level exchanges, however, the most significant event in the year was CII-Exim Bank Conclave, held in Delhi in March. About 1,000 delegates attended it, half of whom were from various African countries.

 

Bilateral trade

 

Bilateral India-Africa trade, which stood at about $1 billion in 2001, has now reached the $40 billion mark. It is an encouraging growth. Figures about India's investments in Africa are confusing, but by taking an average of the figures of cumulative investments released by the Reserve Bank, the CII and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), one could place a value of $50 billion on them.

 

Three other highlights need to be mentioned here. First, India hosted a meeting of top officials of Africa's Regional Economic Communities (RECs). A first of its kind, the meeting was attended by six of the eight RECs, namely Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Southern African Development Community (SADC), Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and United Nations Association/Arab Maghreb Union (UNA/AMU). It gave them the opportunity to interact with numerous Ministries and business enterprises. Coverage of areas viz stock exchanges, small industry, food processing, infrastructure, IT and telecommunications was quite wide. The visitors expressed "gratitude" to India for the initiative "to recognise the regional dimension of Africa's development."

 

Second, top officials of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) undertook visits to Kampala and Addis Ababa in order to carry forward India's dialogue with the African Union (AU) for nurturing ties at the continental level. On the sidelines of its 15th Summit in Kampala in July, Jean Ping, Chairman of the African Union Commission (AUC), expressed immense satisfaction at the model of engagement created by India, adding that it was "the most unique and preferred of Africa's partnerships." In plain language, he seemed to confirm the view that among many suitors of Africa, both old and new, the two most active are China and India. Ping was also happy with "the determined pace at which implementation (of IAFS decisions) has been undertaken." However, this might have been more credible had the two sides announced, by now, the venue and timing of the second IAFS.

 

Third, a boost to our Africa diplomacy came with the announcement of the Hermes Prize for Innovation 2010 for India's Pan-African e-Network project. The prize was given by the European Institute of Creative Strategies and Innovation, a prestigious think tank. It called the project as "the most ambitious programme of distance education and tele-medicine in Africa ever undertaken."

 

A few tips

 

While moving determinedly to strengthen relations with Africa, the Government needs to do more. African diplomats still speak of the deficit in India's political visibility. Therefore, our President and Prime Minister should find time to visit Africa in 2011. More visits by Mr. Krishna would be helpful. Implementation of the first IAFS decisions, though improving, needs to be speeded up. India Inc. should be more active. In preparing for the second IAFS, South Block should draw from outside expertise. The civil society's potential to strengthen people-to-people relations should be tapped optimally. By according higher attention to Africa, the media could serve as a valuable bridge of mutual understanding.

 

Finally, India should declare and celebrate 2011 as its Africa Year.

 

( The author is former High Commissioner to South Africa, Lesotho and Kenya.)

 

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THE ASIAN AGE

EDITORIAL

BLAME GAME IN WEST BENGAL

 

Union home minister P. Chidambaram's letter to West Bengal chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee strongly criticising the role of "armed CPI(M) cadre" in fomenting violence in the state is the latest flashpoint in the already fractious political situation there.

 

The scathing letter virtually toes the Trinamul Congress line that the Left Front government was misusing Central forces in the state. And, further provoking the Marxists, senior Congress leader and Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has publicly said that "jungle raj" prevails in West Bengal. Mr Mukherjee has also asked the Left Front, particularly the CPI(M), to reply to the home minister's letter. All this scotches rumours that the Congress may dump its ally and join hands with the Left. In fact, Mr Mukherjee's comment underscores the Trinamul's leverage in Bengal and on the national scene, and also, incidentally, gives the lie to tales about his perceived closeness to the Left.

West Bengal has been known for political violence, particularly during Assembly elections. Apart from the "scientific rigging" mastered by the Marxists, muscle power is also used. But the Assembly polls in the state might witness unprecedented violence because of the huge stakes involved. With the wind blowing against the Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee government, the CPI(M) might not shy away from utilising all possible options to stay in power. Rival parties are unlikely to take this lying down. The killings have already started along with trading of charges. The "formal" warning by Mr Chidambaram and the "political" warning by Mr Mukherjee should be seen in this context.

The Centre is mounting pressure on the CM to rein in the armed cadres of the CPI(M) so that the Trinamul does not suffer much in the electoral battle. Of course, the Marxists and the state government have consistently denied the existence of such forces. Alongside, the Maoists have also started attacks on their enemies. With this, the political battle for the heart of West Bengal has metamorphosed into violent clashes in the streets and on campuses. Both the Trinamul and CPI(M) say campus violence has claimed nearly 20 lives so far.

 

Mr Chidambaram's letter clearly states that CPI(M)-backed goons have been attacking Opposition supporters and warns that this cannot continue in a democracy. Even after he penned his missive, a Trinamul worker was shot dead in West Midnapore. The Opposition in West Bengal has been insisting, loudly, that CPI(M)-backed thugs have been attacking their supporters in many places, including in trouble-torn Lalgarh. The home minister's letter mentions that 96 Trinamul, 65 CPI(M) and 15 Congress supporters have been killed in political violence. A few days ago, economist Amartya Sen also expressed concern at the escalating political violence in West Bengal. The scenario is fast becoming similar to the bloody Seventies.

With a highly politicised and emasculated police force, there are no hopes that violence will be quelled soon. Caught in the middle are the bewildered voters. Surely replacing the CPI(M)'s army of goons with the Trinamul version is not what they have in mind. Investors, too, are worried. The CM seems indifferent to ensuring the safety of life and property. Alarmingly enough, he has given a call to his party cadres to "resist" the Opposition's "attempts to unleash forces of anarchy". This is partisan and akin to signing an order authorising chaos. The Centre seems fully aware of the situation but it needs to do more than pen letters and make dramatic statements to prevent the state from slipping into mayhem in the run-up to the Assembly polls.

 

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THE ASIAN AGE

OPINION

ARMS AND THE MAN

SHANKAR ROYCHOWDHURY

 

If wars can be classified as good, bad or indifferent in terms of their impact on the national psyche, then Bangladesh 1971 was a very good war for India and the Sino-Indian border war of 1962 a very bad one indeed. In 1971, all relevant factors — political, diplomatic, and above all the Indian military — meshed together perfectly to fashion a triumph of classic proportions over a traditional enemy; 1962 was just the opposite. Apart from spirited individual performances, the Army and its political guidance was like a badly synchronised gearbox that soon stripped its pinions and crashed. The Indian armed forces remember 1962 with mortification, and 1971 with triumph, which they commemorate as Vijay Diwas on the 16th of December every year. The particular confluence of circumstances, happenstance and personalities that brought both 1962 and 1971 about, are unlikely to recur. So after celebrating Vijay Diwas 2010, the 39th commemoration of "Victory in Bangladesh", it would be appropriate to reflect on how far the Indian military has traveled since the Sela Pass in 1962 and Bangladesh in 1971, and its likely future azimuth.

Barring the first Kashmir War of 1947, China has been a constant background presence in all Indo-Pak matters, especially during India's other wars with Pakistan. These have so far all been single-front affairs (notwithstanding Chinese expressions of solidarity for Pakistan in 1965 and 1971), but India's worst case will always be the two-front scenario — a Pakistan-China combo, with an interlinked nuclear and now a cyber and internal security dimension as well, from covert operations sponsored by the Pakistan Army through its quasi-state jihadi stable. Such externally-sponsored conflicts are unlikely to be resolved by political dialogue or socio-economic initiatives alone. They will require hard and significant military measures to establish a stable environment for negotiated conflict resolution. This has been amply proven by the Indian experience in Jammu and Kashmir.

The role of India's armed forces, though never officially formalised, has crystallised through prolonged deployments in wars, proxy wars, counter terrorism and counter insurgency, into the strategically defensive one of territorial, maritime and aerospace defence of the homeland. India's armed forces are well trained and highly motivated professionals, who have performed outstandingly in every assignment in war or peace, both within as well as outside the country. But their military capabilities have not been kept in pace with the operational imperatives of their role, which demand a full two-and-a-half front operational capability across the entire spectrum of warfare. By that token, their current capabilities are definitely inadequate.

Morale is high, but weapons and equipment are obsolescent, and in many cases severely deficient and outmoded, leaving huge gaps in the performance envelope. Each individual service has its own tale of horrors, whether night vision devices, air defence weapons or artillery for the Army, submarines for the Navy, or the fast-depleting squadron strengths in the Air Force. The major reason for the wasting disease in India's defence capabilities is the scant attention paid to indigenous defence research, development and production. The armed forces naturally require a high state of readiness at all times, but successive governments have consistently chosen the easier option of imports rather than bite the bullet and develop an indigenous defence industry.
A typical case in point is the impending purchase of the 126 multi-role combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force at an estimated cost of `42,000 crore, which cannot be seen in isolation from the agreement with Russia to produce the future fifth-generation fighter for the Indian Air Force as a joint venture expected to ultimately cost an estimated `1.5 lakh crore. The preliminary step was the `1,500 crore pact with Russia finalised during the recent visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to India. The two processes cannot be mutually exclusive. The proposed acquisition of 126 new Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA) is of course an urgent necessity for the Air Force, but has to be planned as a lead in series for the PAKT-50. The implications for selection of the MRCA should be obvious.

 

But even more important is the future of the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas and the Indian aerospace industry. Pakistan is co-producing the JF-17 (also an LCA) with China to induct it into the Pakistan Air Force. How confident is India, specifically the Indian Air Force, about Tejas? How does it stack up against the JF-17? The bottom line is, can the proposed MRCA acquisitions be off-set to a greater or lesser extent by producing additional Tejas? Can immediate operational requirements be balanced against long-term development of indigenous aerospace capabilities? Can Indian industrial capacity deliver?

Questions are endless — from small arms to main battle tanks. Why German Heckler and Koch, Israeli Tabor or even the now ubiquitous AK-47 assault rifles and not the indigenous Excalibur developed by small arms factory Ishapore? Why not the Arjun Main Battle Tank (MBT) produced at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi (near Chennai) instead of the T-90 Russian tank? And then the biggest question: If Indian military equipment is perceived by the users as unreliable, maintenance-heavy and defect-prone, what punitive accountability for this has been imposed for systemic failure in the ministry of defence, the prime government agency under whom fall the Defence Research and Development Organisation and the ordnance factory board?

India seems to have become addicted over the years to a high-calorie diet of imports, taking a strange and even perverse pride in the dubious honour of ranking amongst world's top 10 importers of weapons. Do such profligate imports reflect the true state of the country's scientific and engineering capabilities? These are hard questions which need to be asked and firm answers obtained.

The year 2010 has not been a good year for the country. Gloom, despondency and bitter cynicism pervade the national horizon. Under these overcast skies, the story of victory in Bangladesh in 1971 told on Vijay Diwas every year needs telling and retelling, as a reminder of what the nation can achieve, should it have the will to do so.

Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former Member of Parliament

 

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THE ASIAN AGE

OPINION

DEAR 2011, WILL YOU BRING JUSTICE?

JAYATI GHOSH

 

It's been a frenetic year, closing a volatile decade in which the rapidity of economic and social change in some areas has been almost as remarkable as the continuing stagnation and decline in others. So how do we interpret this and what can we wish for in future?

Right now there is a resurgence of economic triumphalism among Indian elites. On the face of it, the Indian economy has withstood the global crisis to maintain respectable rates of output growth. Consumer demand is buoyant, especially for goods and services consumed by the burgeoning middle class. So most private investors, both local and foreign, are incredibly bullish about future prospects.

But there are no significant improvements in the indicators that matter for most people, like stable employment, better livelihoods, reduced hunger and more basic human development. Rather, changes in finance and other economic deregulation led to large capital inflows and sparked a retail credit boom. These combined with fiscal concessions to spur consumption among the richer sections of the population. Meanwhile, large parts of the country continued to languish in dreadful conditions.

This is not a particularly stable economic trajectory since credit bubbles have to burst some time and growth episodes based on volatile capital inflows have usually ended in tears. In fact, agriculture and balance of payments, as well as social and political instability, are already re-emerging as potential constraints to this pattern of growth. The problems in agriculture continue to fester: the latest figures suggest more farmers' suicides in 2009 than in any previous year, even as the numbers shrink of those who call themselves farmers.
Because economic growth has not generated enough productive jobs, the bulk of the work force is in very fragile and precarious forms of self-employment. Wages have barely risen as profits have exploded, and people have been displaced for projects that bring no improvement to their own lives. All this leads to a growing number of disaffected youth whose frustrations make them more prone to violent or socially undesirable behaviour.

So it's not surprising that there is increased receptivity of local people in depressed areas to "extremist activity" designed to overthrow an economic system that is seen to be completely unjust.

So the first big item on my policy wish list is for a major shift in the direction of economic policy: away from seeing gross domestic product (GDP) expansion as an end in itself whatever the costs and welfare outcomes, and towards wage-led growth based on improved conditions for the ordinary citizen. This means more public spending on the basic goods and services that should be obvious features of civilised society: producing and distributing enough food for everyone; ensuring universal access to good quality health, sanitation and education services; fairly obvious features like all-weather roads to all habitations and electricity for every home. A fairly modest ambition, you might think, until you are told by our policymakers that our country cannot afford it, despite its pretensions to global power status.

 

Of course there are many other features of economic justice that we could think of, but it turns out that now we have to worry even about basic legal justice. The year 2010 has been full of assaults on India's democracy and on its very impressive Constitution. Ironically, most of these assaults have come not from external enemies of the country but from within, and indeed from the very quarters that should be expected to uphold the Constitution.

This is only partly about abuse of power and privilege in the corridors (and anterooms) of power and the growing evidence of corrupt behaviour even at the highest levels. The year ended with the most dispiriting news from judiciary as well, when a court in Chhattisgarh found a well-known and highly respected doctor and human rights activist guilty of sedition, on the basis of the most flimsy and dubious circumstantial evidence, and sentenced him to rigorous life imprisonment.

The case against Dr Binayak Sen, who had already been held in prison for two years until the Supreme Court intervened, is highly questionable at best. But the judgment of the lower court is appalling not just because it appears to bend to the problematic political pressures of the state government and its police force, which apparently wishes to intimidate any dissenters. Even if its argument about the extent of Dr Sen's involvement (carrying letters and so on) with "extremist elements" were to be accepted, this judgment actually flies in the face of the Supreme Court's own stated position on what constitutes sedition.

 

In a famous judgment of 1962 (Kedarnath Singh vs State of Bihar) the Supreme Court held that the offence of "sedition" in the Indian Penal Code must be interpreted in a manner consistent with the fundamental freedom of speech and expression guaranteed by the Indian Constitution.

Spreading "disaffection against the state" is not enough: there must be direct incitement to violence or actions that will lead to serious public disorder, and any speech or deed milder than this should not be considered seditious.

Instead, this extreme and underserved punishment is meted out to someone who in a more enlightened society would be celebrated as a positive role model because of his concern for the poor and downtrodden, while actual criminals roam about unfettered. On what basis can we now argue with those who believe that violent protest is justified because the administrative and judicial systems are so skewed and biased that it is impossible to expect genuine justice? And should we be surprised if such judgments actually add to the extremist activity that is seen as such a threat to the established order?

So my second wish is for a judicial system that works quickly and effectively to uphold the Constitution, to ensure the rights of all citizens and to deliver genuine justice even to those without access to wealth and power.
Is it scary that these two simple wishes seem to be so wildly optimistic and even improbable in India at the turn of the decade?

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DNA

 

FAB 4 SPLIT BECAUSE THEY WERE MUSICALLY BROKE

 

The Beatles broke up in 1970, and the world was never really the same again. Distraught fans, to this day, wonder why their troubles were so far away in the 1960s, but not so in 1970. Fans have, of course, pointed fingers at all and sundry. One such person who has, over the years, received more than her fair share of blame is Yoko Ono, who began a relationship with John Lennon in the late 1960s. But Yoko Ono has now revealed that she had little to do with the breakup.

 

Perhaps she has a point. Fans lament the Beatles' breakup because together, they gave us perhaps some of the greatest popular music the world has ever known. The world was a different place then: Flower Power was surging, it was hep to be a hippie, and the music was just phenomenal. For millions around the world, there are key moments when a Beatles song touched us, and we feel happy.

 

We all wish our youthful years to never end, but alas, time is not bound by our earthly desires. The Fab Four had reached a stage where they could no longer hold each other's hands. And like Yoko Ono says, rather than lament the inevitable breakup, let us celebrate their music.

 

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DNA

AIRPORTS CAN BEAT FOG WITH RIGHT EQUIPMENT

 

Like a traditional rite of passage, New Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport goes through an annual routine. Come December and January, and flights are delayed and/or cancelled because of fog, brought about by Delhi's cold. This year has been no different. Two days of shivering cold and already over 100 flights have been delayed, diverted, or just cancelled, causing havoc to thousands of passengers.

 

Moreover, since Delhi airport handles more flights than any other airport, particularly domestic airlines, disruptions at this airport has a cascading effect on flights across India, disrupting passengers' travel plans. Delhi airport recently acquired a grand new terminal, comparable with the best in the world. But fancy passenger lounges are of little use unless the airports can allow aircraft to operate in not-so-conducive conditions.

 

No one will deny that no chances should be taken with regard to safety norms but certainly inclement weather conditions should not necessarily lead to delays and cancellations. But every time fog descends on Delhi, the airport shuts down and it is not because the fog is severe but because the airport simply lacks the necessary wherewithal to operate in low-visibility conditions.

 

There are equipment and technology available that allow aircraft to operate even in severe fog conditions. The government and airport authorities must invest in such technology to keep flights on schedule. Instead, what happens is that Indian government reduces visibility guidelines to allow aircraft movement, which is a risky thing to do.

 

Incidentally, Delhi airport's disruption comes at a time when airports in London and across northern Europe are being forced to cancel flights after receiving record snowfall over the last few days. Yet, even though these latest cancellations are the result of one of severest winters and heaviest snowfalls to have blanketed northern Europe, an angry UK government is planning a law that will penalise airports for flight cancellations or delays. The British government's dissatisfaction stems from the fact that airports, especially Heathrow in London, did not invest in appropriate technology that would have allowed at least a few, if not all, aircraft to land or take-off, and thus mitigated the problem to some extent. This is what needs to be done at Delhi airport too.

 

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DNA

EDITORIAL

A TRIP TO THE MOON SHOULD BE A JOINT EFFORT

 

The failure of GSAT-5P does not mean that the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) needs to fall into despair or be endlessly berated. It just means that ISRO needs to be allowed to get on with its job — without the jingoistic excitement which usually accompanies every success. The Indian expedition to the moon has not, in fact, been a lone Indian effort but rather, a collaboration with other space agencies and scientists. It is also worth remembering that the moon was first visited in 1969 and an unmanned Indian effort first got there four decades later.

 

Preliminary investigations seem to suggest that the problem lies at the first stage and not at the cryogenic stage, which has been developed with Russian help. Scientists are calling this crash a "freak mishap" because several tests went very well. However, it is also true that the early stages of India's space programme and several satellite launches also ended in failure. And of course, such failures are not limited to India either.

 

But of course, human error can hardly be used as an excuse. An enormous amount of money has been spent on the Chandrayaan project and many have argued that this is money which India can put to better use. The desire for space domination needs to be through a global effort rather than individual nations looking for glory. ISRO did suffer some embarrassment when NASA made it clear that much of the research which resulted from Chandrayaan I was a result of its payload rather than any ISRO effort.

 

Instead of the self-aggrandisement or at best patting on the back as of the past couple of years, ISRO now needs to get back to the drawing board and get to the bottom of this crash. Since scientific experimentation is liable to mistakes or even disasters due to small causes, stricter controls and checks are needed. It is fortunate that these are as yet unmanned missions — the cost of loss of human life would be incalculable and a terrible public relations failure.

 

This trip to the moon does in fact mean a lot for the human race. Now, we need hard work and more application to reduce errors.

 

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DNA

COLUMN

MAN AND HIS SUBTLE ENVIRONMENT

SRI SRI RAVI SHANKAR

 

When you feel depressed, know that you are creating particles of depression around you. Those ions of depressions go and stick to the environment. Have you experienced this? You walk into a room and suddenly feel angry vibes. You were all right a few minutes ago but the moment you walk in, the anger and tension overtakes you.

 

Today there is a lot of talk about protecting the environment, bringing up more greenery, recycling and using more natural and organic substances. A few years ago, this was not an issue at all.

 

Like we pollute the earth and the water, we also pollute the subtle environment of feelings and emotions.

 

Man has become a victim of his environment. He is not in control of his mind. We pollute our environment in a very subtle way through our negative emotions. But it takes some time to clear the environment of this. So how do we handle it? We hear a lot about others in life but we spend very little time hearing ourselves. This is most unfortunate. Then what is the solution?

 

Our body has the capacity to sustain the vibrations of bliss and peace longer than it does negative emotions. Through the help of meditation and certain breathing techniques, we can easily get over our negative emotions. Take some time off to look a little deep into oneself and calm the mind down. Thus, erasing all the impressions we are carrying in our minds, we can experience the divine that is the core of our existence.

 

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DNA

COLUMN

REPRESSIVE STATE BAD FOR FREE MARKET ECONOMY

PARSA VENKATESHWAR RAO JR

 

There are enough people defending Dr Binayak Sen, the Chhattisgarh medical practitioner and human rights activist, and they are doing the right thing. It is not necessary to nit-pick that the articulate, liberal middle class from the metropolis is speaking up so eloquently for one of their own.

 

There is not much doubt that the case against Sen — and it is interesting that not much attention is being paid to the other two, Narayan Sanyal and Piyush Guha — is legally weak. The defenders of Sen are basing their defense not on a point of law, but on the basis of Sen's credentials as a good samaritan. They are keen to defend his muddle-headed politics rather than his Constitutional right as a citizen of a democratic country.

 

It is necessary to defend Sen on the basis of his Constitutional rights even if many of us would not agree with his politics, and it is this defense which is of utmost importance to the democratic set-up in the country. As a matter of fact, it is the leaders of business and industry and the anti-leftists, and this would, in a way, mean the anti-Sen lobby, which should come forward to defend Sen's rights.

 

If Sen's friends have an ideological stake in defending him because they religiously nurse the useless pro-poor sentiment which underlies their liberal politics, the critics of Sen have a larger stake of preventing the state from imposing undue restrictions on the thoughts and actions of citizens. It is the freedom to pursue one's interests within legal parameters that is the keystone of a market economy.

 

The captains of industry as well as the market ideologues stupidly believe that the state should ensure a strict law-and-order situation that would enable them to carry out their own business activities without any hindrance. That is the presumption of the Tatas in West Bengal, of Vedanta in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh and of Posco in Orissa, and the implication is that those opposed to the Tatas, Vedanta and Posco should be punished, or at least shooed away, for opposing their projects. It would be a disaster if industry were to depend on the policing powers of the state to silence their opponents.

 

In Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and communist Soviet Union, dubious economic miracles were cited as a good enough reasons to rationalise a repressive political regime. But the economies crumbled in each of these countries as well as in other states with a totalitarian bent of mind because without basic democratic freedoms, it is impossible to sustain economic growth.

 

Critics of market economy are keen to drive home the point that repressive regimes and business interests go hand in hand. Business for its own selfish — call it enlightened if you like — interests should be on the side of freedom and against the state.

 

The paradox is this: The private sector wants the state not to interfere in the economy but it wants the state to keep under control its opponents and critics through relevant laws.

 

On other hand, the leftist liberals want the state to control the economy but leave the political sphere alone. These are biased expectations and agendas of special interest groups. The lefitsts should stop pretending that they are speaking for the poor. They are not. The poor have their own views but we must listen to them and not to their self-appointed emissaries.

 

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DNA

COLUMN

CORRUPTION IS DAMAGING THE VALUE OF BRAND INDIA

RAJEEV SRINIVASAN

 

The staggering loot in this year's headline scams benumbs us to the massive human tragedy that underlies them. As Stalin once said, "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic". Still, there is a price to pay. One reason for tribal insurgencies in India today is lack of development. And then there are mercy killings and suicides. There is a direct correlation among these: people die, or live stunted lives, because of larceny by the rich and powerful.

 

The story of thalaikoothal in Virudhunagar was reported by Tehelka magazine ('Mother, shall I put you to sleep?', November 20). Apparently impoverished people in Tamil Nadu are ritually murdering their aged parents for a simple, rational reason: they cannot afford to support them.

 

This story reminds me of a powerful film, The Ballad of Narayama (1983), set in 19th-century Japan that deservedly won the Grand Prize at Cannes in 1983. Set in a poor mountainous area where the land has limited carrying capacity, it illustrates a ritual called ubatse. Every time a child is born, an old person has to die, for they cannot afford to feed that extra mouth.

 

In effect, it means that at the age of 70, every old person will be taken to the snowy peaks and left there to die of starvation and exposure. In the film, an iron-willed matriarch resolves that when her time comes, she will go of her own will, and not be dragged kicking and screaming. She methodically arranges her affairs, and then forces her grief-stricken, unwilling son to carry her to the mountaintop, where she will die.

 

It is an indictment of the failure of our leadership that something from pre-industrial Japan 200 years ago finds echoes in today's India. But this is merely a particularly graphic illustration of the fact that the systematic siphoning off of funds from India is, literally, killing its people. In this, India is similar to some resource-rich countries, which have borne the 'curse of oil': the vast wealth from petroleum has often led to more, not less, misery for the people.

 

The Economist argues ('The paradox of plenty', December 2005) that the reasons are massive corruption, weakened institutions, and lack of competitiveness in other industries. And just plain disdain for the masses. In the oil-rich Niger delta, it appears there has been massive environmental damage and pollution, suffered by the locals who have got nothing to show for the billions dug up from under the ground.

 

India's principal wealth is in agriculture and human resources.

 

These were enough in historic times to make India the wealthiest nation in the world, as per Angus Maddison (The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD, 2001). It was massive capital transfers by the British and the systematic dismantling of light industry that have caused enduring misery.

 

The underpinnings of corruption in India were also created by the British. Their buccaneer John Company types

were given poor salaries, and were expected to make their fortunes through means fair or foul; most chose foul. Robert Clive, when impeached by the British Parliament in 1676, disclosed that his net worth was sterling £401,102. His annual salary had only been between sterling £1,000 and £5,000, according to PJ Marshall (East Indian Fortunes: The British in Bengal in the Eighteenth Century, Oxford, 1976).

 

Nevertheless, India is an economy that still generates large amounts of surplus, especially now that its GDP is growing rapidly. This has given an impetus to corruption and the disappearance of funds to offshore accounts and into things like religious conversion. Instead of enabling the poor to claw their way out of poverty, the surplus is skimmed off. Money that could have built roads, ports, schools, hospitals and world-class universities has been swallowed by private individuals.

 

A recent report from Global Financial Integrity program at the Center for International Policy, Washington DC (The Drivers and Dynamics of Illicit Financial Flows from India: 1948 to 2008, November 2010) estimates that $462 billion has been stolen in sixty years, and that this accelerated to $16 billion per year towards the end of the study period. Undoubtedly, with the scams that are now coming to light, this decade's loot will be exponentially higher: the CWG and 2G scams alone add up to $60 billion in vanished wealth.

 

The nation is turning into a banana republic. Not only politicians, but also the media, the judiciary, the armed forces and even the Vigilance Commission, are being drawn into this web of kickbacks and payoffs. In addition to human misery, it has economic consequences. A recent Stanford study (Corruption and International Value: Does Virtue Pay?, November 2010) suggests that firms in corrupt countries suffer a loss in market value. Surely, those corrupt countries suffer the same: Brand India is being hurt.

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

SELF-ABSORBED 
NC OUGHT TO BE COUNSELLING ITS OWN SICK GOVERNMENT RATHER THAN NITPICKING INTERLOCUTORS DRAFTED BY THE RING MASTER 

 

National Confe-rence Member of Parliament, Dr Mehboob Beg's reaction to comments made by the interlocutors about the performance of the coalition government headed by chief minister Omar Abdullah typifies the peevishness gripping the NC and its establishment. Dr Beg, usually not given to speaking out of turn, appears to be annoyed over Dilip Padgaonkar's recent observation that there was need for the state government to try and bridge the gap between the rulers and the ruled and to improve its efficiency as well as its performance in order to reduce the trust deficit between the two. Firstly, interlocutors are not the only entity to say so. Existence of trust deficit along with governance deficit has been clearly visible like light of the day. Central government's cabinet committee on security affairs had only lent its voice to this reality that was otherwise starkly apparent on the Kashmir scene even as it was scantily acknowledged so very authentically. That the coalition government in the state was struck by total paralysis all through last summer, that there was total administrative vacuum and that its political consequences had virtually crippled the NC's party apparatus, along with that of other mainstream groups, are undeniable facts of history. If Dr Beg feels that his party and its government are now recovering from that trauma no one need to grudge him. But he is not likely to find many takers for his apparent optimism that the mess resulting from last summer's developments has been cleared or that the ruling apparatus has regained its moral and administrative authority to the extent that it is performing as indeed it ought to be. The reality on the ground is dismal, notwithstanding Dr Beg's optimism. The coalition government has yet to show any credible sign of its recovery.

 

What the NC leader chose to ignore or failed to notice while making his assessment is the fact that with the subsiding of the situation on the ground cracks and fissures between the coalition partners, NC and the Congress, have come to the surface more perceptibly than before. Significantly, the two parties seem to be looking in opposite directions over almost every significant issue related to stabilising peace and normalcy in Kashmir. For instance, the Congress has been more vocal than ever before in voicing its total 
disagreement over some of the key propositions put forth by Omar Abdullah, including 'softening' of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and resumption of the stalled dialogue process. There is a wide divergence of approach between the two over some of the basic issues involved in the situation. While the NC, for obvious reasons remains wedded to Valley-centric approach the Congress, for the same reason, has been brought up on the Jammu-centric mental diet. Repeated failure of the state cabinet to tackle some of the 'divisive' issues of vital significance to the situation on the ground has become a permanent feature of its deliberations now reduced to ordering transfers and promotions, more often without rationale. 

The interlocutors have undoubtedly been saying all sorts of things, some of it relevant but the rest irrelevant. But they are not the only entity to exhort the coalition government to try and overcome trust deficit between the ruled and rulers. Trust deficit and governance deficit have not gone away just because the state headquarters have shifted to the winter capital and over-protected ministers are now finding it convenient to undertake outdoor activity though mainly for publicity over the official mass media. The picture sought to be painted in this manner just does not square up with the larger picture to deal with which the central government has drafted this group of interlocutors. It is very much their legitimate business to say what they have said about the Omar Abdullah government. Treating this incident as an act of hostility and reacting angrily does not help anybody. Dr Beg would be better advised to address his wise counsel to the right quarters-the NC and its sick government. Until the ruling party and its governing apparatus regain their health and show signs of effective recovery nobody is going to be impressed by the type of weak defence offered by Dr Beg. The government's performance on almost every front continues to reflect its poor health. Indeed, there is more mismanagement than before. Or may be optimists like the NC MP believe in the dictum that things are bound to get worse before getting better. But those at the receiving end of it all would certainly share his optimism; certainly the hapless victims of mis-governance and mistrust.

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

MESS IN HEALTH SECTOR

THE HELMSMEN NEED TO MOVE BEYOND RHETORIC 

Recent incidents in hospitals of Reasi, Bhaderwah, Jammu and Srinagar where the angry attendants ransacked the property and also destroyed the hospital records in protest against, what they alleged as, "the negligence of doctors costing them the lives of their near and dear ones," are upsetting. Though there was nothing unusual as, of late, the protests in the hospitals by the attendants and their clashes with the doctors or para-medical staff has, almost become a routine affair, only unusual thing was that all unfortunate incidents in different parts of the state occurred on the same day. And the raison deter in all these cases was same which was a pointer towards the pathetic state of affairs in J&K as far as the health care facilities are concerned. In Bhaderwah, allegedly in the absence of doctors in the hospital, a family lost its child who had swallowed a whistle. The family carrying the child in critical condition kept shuttling between the Bhaderwah and Doda hospitals yet when failed to get adequate timely treatment, it decided to bring the child to Jammu Medical College hospital Jammu. Sadly the child breathed his last while the family was on its way to Jammu, undoubtedly the loss of critical time slot because of non-availability of desired health care facilities and the medical staff proved too costly. Similarly in district hospital Reasi and Government Medical College hospital Jammu, the angry attendants agitated alleging that their patients were not provided timely and desired treatment by the doctors and the other staff available there and thus they lost their near and dear ones due to their negligence. In Srinagar's G B Pant hospital also, the spectre was not very different where the family alleged that their only child, born on December 17 this year was administered an injection, whose expiry date had already run out. Although in all these cases, the hospital authorities did not admit any lapses on their part on the anticipated lines but the recurrent incidents of similar nature in almost all parts of the state are indicative of the poor health of our health department. The ground situation belies the haughty claims of the administration vis-…-vis making all out efforts to improve the health care infrastructure. It is therefore imperative for the helmsmen to admit that all is not well with the health sector and thus needs to wake up to move beyond the rhetoric to bring change on the ground. 

 

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

LIFE OF AND FOR COMRADE BINAYAK SEN 

BY FARZANA VERSEY

Dr. Binayak Sen has been awarded a life sentence. There is no evidence to nail him down. I will not go into the details of this case that will stand up for scrutiny only in a banana republic, not in a democracy. 

 

The war against the state is a convenient ploy. Dr. Sen, an award winning doctor and national vice-president of the People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) was arrested in Bilaspur on May 14, 2007. He has been behind bars ever since. And it was not a fashionable 'statement' arrest. 

His crime is that he passed letters to the Maoist ideologue, Narayan Sanyal. Together with a young businessman, Piyush Guha, they are seen as a triumvirate. The letters were apparently to "establish an urban network of the banned extremist group CPI (Maoist)".

The charges are drawn from the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967, the Chhattisgarh Special Public Security Act, 2005, and the IPC for conspiracy for war against the state and treason, apart from being the accused as members of a banned organisation.

Let us go along for a minute with the charges. What war has been fought against the state due to the efforts of Dr. Sen? How many politicians are arrested for creating wars within their own states? What is treason here? To speak out, to believe that a people have the right to seek a space? The moot point is: have they got it? As regards being members of a banned organisation, may I know how it is possible when an organisation that is banned becomes irrelevant, a persona non grata, so to speak? Therefore, his being a part of it is a non sequiter. 
Apparently, the prosecution has problems with him being addressed as 'Comrade' in two postcards. "Comrade usi ko kahaa jaata hai jo Maowadi hai," (Only a Maoist is called comrade) said prosecutor Pandya who is probably a comrade-in-arms with the state machinery and a whole ideology based on idiocy. If you refer to someone as 'Bhai', does it mean the person is an underworld don? Communist leaders still use the term comrade. Even so, he has every right to be a Maoist, just as people can be Bajrang Dali or Jamaatis; at least he is not using obfuscation. 

How do you imagine Dr. Binayak Sen is linked to international terror groups? The sessions court in Chhattisgarh said that his wife Ilina was corresponding with Pakistan's ISI based on some letters written by her to "some Fernandes of the ISI". 

Here is the report from the TOI:

The email said: "There is a chimpanzee in the White House." Pandya said: "This may be code language... this perhaps means terrorists are annoyed with the US... We do not know who this Fernandes is, but ISI, as we all know, means Pakistan."

TOI spoke to Walter Fernandes, currently director of the North Eastern Social Research Institute in Guwahati. "Ilina and I are good friends and we frequently exchanged correspondence on development-induced displacement among tribals, which has been my subject for the last 20 years," he said. He described the prosecution's attempt to interpret ISI (Indian Social Institute) as Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence wing and link it to Binayak Sen as "either ignorance or bad will".

 

I am currently writing about Indian Stupid Insecurity (ISI). The imagination of the prosecution aside, I have issues with the use of 'perhaps' in a case of this nature, that involves the life of a person and the life of civil liberties. The prosecution is supposed to verify its claims before charging a person. If it is a code word, then decode it; if it is terror groups, snoop around and check the IP address. We don't live in the stone age that this is not possible. 

 

There will be an appeal against this judgement. But, it is a sad state of affairs when after 1000 pages of the charge-sheet, the Indian courts come out the worse for the wear. There is nothing that reveals that Comrade Binayak Sen has betrayed the country. The judiciary has. 

-(Countercurrents)                                                                          

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THE KASHMIR TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE SPIRIT OF CHRISTMAS..!

BY ROBERT CLEMENTS

".Transport and traffic police in Mumbai, met taxi drivers to tell them to be present near bars during the Christmas to New Year period at night so tipplers could be dropped home." 
-Times of India, Dec 24th
I pictured a tippler leaving the bar, swaying from side to side, it was Christmas and he felt it was reason enough to go home drunk. He sways to the door, and a taxi driver greets him, "Taxi sir?"
"Yes, I am filled with spirits, hic, hic, I cannot walk, hic, lead me to your taxi!"
"Come sir, come into my taxi and let me tell you of the Spirit Of Christmas!"
"I already know about spirits," says the passenger as he sprawls on the seat, "I have taken a lot of it from the bottle today!"
"Ah sir," says the taxi driver a twinkle in his eye, "It was to get rid of having to rely on that spirit of the bottle that the first Christmas happened more than two thousand years ago!"
"I..I don't need the bottle?"
"No, sir, the baby born in a manger, the little boy child called Jesus came to fill you with something different, tell me, why are you drunk sir?"
"Why am I drunk, hic?" asked his passenger, "Why am I drunk? I am drunk because I want to feel happy at least with this liquor in me! I am drunk because my life has reached a point of no return, I feel frustrated and impotent!"
"Sir, you are crying!"
"I cry, because I am lonely. Nobody wants to listen to me!"
And suddenly the taxi seemed to rise into the air.
"Where are you going?" asked the passenger.
"Back in time to Bethlehem sir, I will drive you to a manger! There sir what do you see?"
"A little baby wrapped in hay!"
"How do you feel sir?"
"What feeling is this? I have never felt this sense of security! I feel as if the child in the manger is reaching out to hold my hand!"
"Yes sir, as that child grows He will reach out and hold the hand of every lonely individual in the world. He will say to the people, 'Come unto me all you who labour and are heavy laden and I will give you rest!"
"Oh what a feeling of peace!"
"My peace, says the child, Will I give you! Come sir let us return to my taxi!"
"Yes," says the passenger. "Though I don't feel like leaving that baby in the manger, yet I know as I walk away that His spirit is in me!"
"That sir, "said the taxi driver as he drove his cab into the sky and back to the city, "is the Spirit of Christmas! A spirit that will fill your heart and soul and mind, and give you the strength of an eagle as you go about your daily life and a joy that will be beyond your understanding!"
That night as the passenger walked away from the cab into his home, his wife looked at him, and said, "You look happy, what spirit have you drunk this time?"
"The Spirit of Christmas!" he said, as he smiled at her, "Found in a Bethlehem manger, where a baby was lying..!"
bobsbanter@gmail.com 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

TIME TO ACT

 

A recent report in this newspaper has once again brought into focus the issue of unauthorised occupation of nazool land in this city. The report has made a couple of important points: (a) not many encroachers have come forward to seek regularisation under the Roshni Act; (b) they continue to be illegal dwellers; (c) some of them have been described as being "influential" but not mentioned by names; (d) the value of the property thus lost to the government runs into crores of rupees; (e) even commercial complexes are being raised unlawfully on such land; and (f) a large number of people have sublet the property. For its part the administration is said to be aware of infringements across the district including this city and its periphery. Why is it then not taking the desired corrective action? The least it can do is to stall the business establishments from coming up. Why it should be found wanting in this regard is not clear. Should one believe that remedies devised to far have proved worse than the disease? This problem has actually been lingering on for decades. The latest Master Plan of Jammu, for instance, has admitted way back in 2004 that "a large chunk of nazool land was encroached." It has been admitted even then: "Large chunks of Government land were grabbed by colonisers where the end-buyers had no title over the land that they bought. Buildings have been constructed without obtaining building permission." A further setback has been caused in the wake of unexpected developments like migration from the Valley and border districts, rapid inflow of tourists and pilgrims and liberalisation of economy resulting in the development in particular of communication sector. "These developments generated competitive markets and opened business opportunities which needed a much higher percentage of land under commercial use in Jammu than envisaged in the (earlier) Master Plan."

 

A cumulative effect has been that "the tendency to go in for unauthorised constructions for erecting commercial assets in areas not originally demarcated for commercial use increased manifold." We have quoted extensively from the official document to nail any impression that nazool land is a sudden victim of usurpation. Evidently a substantial part of it has slipped out of the Government's control in a gradual manner. The Jammu Development Authority (JDA) is going through a "resource crunch" as one of the consequences. Land is too precious a commodity to be permitted to be frittered away so easily. That the Government, which is perpetually starving of funds, should allow this is indeed a luxury it can ill afford. It must, therefore, get the land vacated or regularised for a fee without any further delay. A better approach may be to find some way of utilising it for building residential complexes.

 

On a broader level one may recall that there has been a demand that the names of all those in illegitimate possession of land should be made public. A step like this is likely to have a salutary effect. That it is not being taken can only reinforce the suspicion that the malady is deeper than what it appears to be. Do reasons for this require to be elaborated? Passive acquiescence in indecision and thus inaction amounts to connivance. We need to mend our approach for our sake.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

CHINGUS SARAI

 

In his voluminous work "Kashir being a history of Kashmir", G.M. D. Sufi thus describes Chingus Sarai: "Chingas Sarai is a small and scattered village situated on a flat table-land, about 200 feet above the right bank of the Tawi river. It lies on the Bhimbar route into Kashmir between Naoshahra and Rajauri, about 13 miles north of the former place, and 15 miles south of the latter. There is a bungalow for the accommodation of travellers, about a quarter of a mile from the village. The old Sarai from which the village takes its name, is close to the bungalow. Water is procurable from a baoli or from the river beneath. The hill sides in the vicinity are covered with under-wood and firs, but on the opposite side of the river there is a good grazing ground. Next to the Mughal mosque at the Sarai is the grave entombing Jahangir's entrails." He goes on to mention ophiolatry (worship of snakes) that prevailed in the region. With the passage of time we will notice that the spellings of the names of almost every place have changed including those of Chingus which is currently in vogue. What is not disputed, however, is that it is the site where the entrails or intestines of Mughal emperor Jahangir are buried. It is generally believed that Jahangir, a frequent visitor to the Valley, had died on this route during one of his journeys. The innards were removed from his body and put in the ground at the Sarai to prevent the stench from emanating. This was done, it is said, to pre-empt the possibility of the premature disclosure of his death that could have triggered succession battle back in the Capital or led to the outside interference. An article in a recent Sunday magazine of this newspaper laments that the Sarai is "lying in a deplorable state of affairs" and there is "no maintenance." It is a pity that the "dogs are frequently seen wandering inside," "the walls are fading to death," "knee-deep garbage is piled up," and, the worst of this all, "bricks, stones and other iron items are removed by the people for their personal use."

 

In brief, there is no effective upkeep or supervision. This is the plight of the majority of our monuments. The Department of Archives in the State and the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) in the country as a whole are doing a good job within the available human and financial resources. No purpose will be served by blaming them for poor preservation of our ancient and historic relics. It is fundamentally a question of adjusting our priorities by finding enough funds for this exercise. Unlike other invaders the Mughals have contributed a lot in terms of building one imposing structure after the other aesthetically. Our own State, especially the Valley, has been a rich beneficiary. The least we can do is to reciprocate their gesture in full measure by saving their edifices. This is necessary for us too from the point of view of studying our own evolution as a society and a political entity. We should rescue and beautify the Chingus Sarai at all costs. It tells us a tale that a one-time powerful royal family has eventually failed to bury.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

TEARS, SQUEALS AND ONION PEELS

BY S.V. VAIDYANATHAN

 

Periyar, the flamboyantly bearded founder of the Dravidian Self-Respect Movement, used frequently to spit out the Tamil word vengayam (meaning 'onion') as an expression of derision; since there was much in politics that he found worthy of disdain, the pungent whiff of onions used forever to hang over Dravidian politics in an earlier time. Evidently Periyar considered the onion lowly because beneath its many layers of skin, there's only empty nothing, much like a vacuous political argument. 

His bearish assessment of the onion's value comes fairly close to that of the music critic James Huneker, who wrote "Life, is like an onion: you peel off layer after layer and then you find there is nothing in it." Today, however, it appears that the open market valuation of the onion's worth far exceeds Periyar's (and Huneker's) uncharitable estimation. Prices have run up so fast recently that for budget-balancing households, even an unpeeled onion induces a free flow of tears.

The onion's centrality in the political discourse has also been reinforced by the upsurge in the volume of political commentaries revolving around the aromatic plant. That's partly because, given the widespread use of onions by all but the most austere adherents of sattvic diets, extraordinarily high onion prices arguably have a bit of "regime change" potential. 

The many medicinal properties attributed to the onion - it's touted as a cure for everything from common colds to coronary diseases to cancer - have given rise to the formulation: "an onion a day keeps the doctor away". It's more likely, that it's the distinctive after-effects of an onion-flavoured diet - in particular, an odoriferous breath that would, well, make an onion cry - that keeps everyone, including doctors, away. 

In any case, that's a technique that former US presidential candidate John Kerry's wife Teresa Heinz Kerry famously invoked. Campaigning along with Kerry, which required her to travel for extended periods, she devised a way to "get some privacy" whenever she wanted: she'd pull out a sandwich made with cheese and raw onions.

The onion's curious olfactory effect - which, ancient Egyptians believed, could even bring the dead back to life - was perhaps one reason why Egyptian pharaohs were mummified along with onions. In the middle Ages, the onion additionally served as a form of currency - it was used as rent payments and even as wedding gifts. 
If there's one thing, though, that reeks even more than the onion today, it's the stench of speculator-driven corruption that underlies the high prices, for which administrative incompetence acts as a flavour enhancer. 

The same authorities are making an elaborate show of cracking down on hoarders and speculators. It's the kind of cynical politicking that might induce anyone to say, derisively, vengayam. 

 

In current Indian contexts revisiting the history of how the vegetable, of the allium family, caused the downfall of more than one government, would make clear to those at the helm of affairs that it is wise not to ignore the writing on the wall. On two occasions, the BJP suffered crushing defeats at the hustings in Delhi and Rajasthan in 1998 when it failed to check spiralling onion prices. In 1980, when Indira Gandhi was not in power, she used the onion price issue to telling effect, achieving an electoral victory over the Janata Party which ruled at the Centre.

Like the BJP governments in Delhi and Rajasthan and the Janata Party, the United Progressive Alliance-II has demonstrated its failure on not having kept ear to ground. As the prices of onion skyrocketed, Manmohan Singh's government displayed inept handling of an issue that could become its bane. Although North Block mandarins continue to burn the midnight oil, devising measures to bring down the prices by banning onion export, scrapping duty to encourage swift import and directing the state governments to crack down on hoarders, the Centre's actions came too late.

While agriculture, food and consumer affairs minister Sharad Pawar has attributed the price rise to the shortfall in onion production and unseasonal rains, one is left wondering why the administration waited for the price to shoot up to Rs. 85 a kg, from an average Rs. 15-20, and did not take any corrective steps when the rates began moving northward.

And while the price of onion had started going up from September-October itself, the government began taking remedial measures only on December 20 that too after the media highlighted the unusually high prices. The government's lethargic response gave ample opportunity to traders to make a killing and to hoarders accumulate stocks for the past two months. To top it all, the government allowed exports till the second week of December.
It has now emerged that the government was caught unaware on the high price issue. This becomes clear from what the government told parliament on December 10. Minister of state for food and agriculture K. V. Thomas informed Rajya Sabha that "Decline in production due to untimely rains in key onion growing areas have pushed prices of the vegetable in the last month (November). Untimely rains during the month of November in Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP and Rajasthan impacted production and led to lower onion arrivals in the market". Thomas went on to add that "...onion prices increased from September onwards due to restricted supply of stored stock by farmers/traders with the expectation of higher prices in coming months".

The current situation follows a decline in production in 2009-10 compared to 2008-2009 - from 13.4 million tonne during 2008-09 to 12.1 mt in 2009-10. Of this, normal export stood at about 1.8 mt, the rest was for domestic consumption.

This winter, a seemingly unconcerned government did not hesitate to continue issuing export permits even in November which gave push up the already climbing prices. Not just this. Export permits, in the form of no objection certificates, issued for November, were over 35 per cent more than the October figure and 60 per cent above that issued in November 2009. Around nine lakh tonne of onion has already been shipped out this year so far, notwithstanding the shortfall in production.

 

This happened despite clear warning signs from the National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) that indicated rain due to cyclonic formation on the west coast during October-end and in November in onion-producing states. The Nasik-based NHRDF had also pointed out that onion arrivals in major mandis between November and mid-December dropped 35 per cent compared to last year.

At the same time, differences cropped up among officials during an inter-ministerial meeting on cotton exports held on December 22. While Pawar blamed unseasonal rain for having adversely affected the crop, Commerce minister Anand Sharma held hoarders responsible. Though Pawar claimed that prices will take three weeks to stabilise, an NHRDF report says that consumers' misery may continue longer. The report indicates that the situation on the field was grim and even the prospects for the rabi crop (September to May) were bleak with a likely 20 per cent drop in production.

After the government freed imports, onion prices on the wholesale markets have come down by around 20 per cent, but is yet to percolate down to the retails markets. The increase in prices has not benefited the farmers because traders cashed in, leaving the growers in the lurch.

The Government has in place the mechanism, including market intelligence and weather and crop intelligence wings which can be used to good effect to contain prices. Yet, the government failed the consumers. The slew of remedial measures that the government has now initiated is knee jerk reaction as these are temporary. Under such circumstances, the Centre could evolve permanent measures, such as building cold storage facilities to stock large quantities. This will at least ensure that history is not repeated. Mr. Sharad Pawar is in cahoots with hoarders and black marketers, and for the sake of the UPA- II he should be shown the door of ministry of Agriculture and Consumers Affairs. (INAV)

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

KASHMIR: NEW REGIONAL STRATEGY

BY K.N. PANDITA

 

Strategic landscape in a vast region spawning Pakistan westward to Central Asia, is changing fast once again. New elements and new forces are interacting in the turbulent area indicating the return of terrorism and its spillover to Pakistan and Kashmir. In all probability, Indian security planners are taking due cognizance of new nexuses and new strategies under adoption by major terrorist actors, Al-Qaeda and various affliates of Taliban.
A new militant organization in Pakistan, called Lashkar-e Jhangvi, an organization active for more than two decades in the past, has resurfaced with changed objectives. So far this organization has owned responsibility for almost all bomb attacks carried out against the Pakistani Shia' community whether in their mosques or on the streets. 

Under changed strategy, this organization is reported to have tied up with Al-Qaeda and accepted a larger role of carrying out jihad programme not only against the pro-US government and pro-US Army top brass of Pakistan but also in European countries and India. 

Al-Qaeda appears to be strengthening its manpower and plans through freshly actived recruitment campaign. Fresh recruits are mostly coming from the Central Asian State of Uzbekistan, the homeland of IMU. After the Ferghana and Andijan incidents in which the government of President Islam Karimov had came down with a very heavy hand on the IMU, many Uzbek youth have been trekking to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions of Waziristan where Al-Qaeda top leadership is hiding. In North Waziristsn, the IMU insurgents have splintered and joined various affiliates of Al-Qaeda. Owing to large scale unemployment and economic recession in Central Asian republics, the young cadres of IMU, not discouraged by the elimination of their notorious leader Yeldashev by the American drone attack, are proving very tough fighters.

According to knowledgeable sources, the reactivated Lashkar-e Jhangvi of Pakistan has adopted the new ideology of joining forces with such jihadi organizations as are pitted against the Islamic jihad all over the world. Under Al-Qaeda's radicalized plan, they are to join hands with jihadi outfits to fight on three fronts, namely against the pro-American establishment in Pakistan, against the Americans and European regimes and against India. In all probability, Lashkar-e Jhangvi could be the new avatar of LeT and JM combine. Owing to the fact that these two terrorist organizations have come under the American scanner and are closely watched by security establishments, the ISI has found it necessary to enforce realignment of sorts among the outfits.
Some months back, there was a small news in print media that two IMU activists had been arrested somewhere in Kashmir during a field operation by the security forces. But no details of the incident were reported. The matter was hushed up quickly. However, news has been trickling down that a large number of well equipped terrorists now assembled at various vulnerable points along the LoC in J&K are waiting to infiltrate into Indian Territory. For example, recently, there has been repeated firing along the border in Kathua region in Jammu province which has been interpreted by experts as providing cover to the infiltrating armed brigands. Apart from this, for last one or two months, there have been repeated attempts of infiltration at various points along the LoC and many of these were foiled by the security forces. Western Command sources have been saying repeatedly that there are many terrorists waiting to infiltrate. Security sources have also indicated that this crop of new terrorists is equipped with more sophisticated weapons and information technology. This has been proved correct by what fell into the hands of Indian security personnel after they had smashed the dens of infiltrators or liquidated them in encounters along the line of control.

 

The apprehension is that in the backdrop of accelerated infiltration attempts, there could be the accompanying programme of far deeper indoctrination of vulnerable sections of valley population. There could be sensitization of the people, particularly the youth, to the international Islamic brotherhood that would highlight the so-called "sacrifices" of the international Muslim community in the vanguard of which stood the jihadis and would-be-martyrs of Arab, Turkic, Uzbek, Chechen and other ethnicities. 

In the context of Pakistan, a development like this is bound to push the feudal-military-bureaucracy combine of that country to the backyard and make space for radical theocrats to grab power. When the interests of the triumvirate nexus are threatened, it will react and that is what the scenario in Pakistan is today. Obviously, the intention is to divert the attention of the new terrorist combine from onslaughts on Pakistani establishment to the Kashmir scenario and hence acceleration of infiltration along the borders. 

The strategy of street mobilization and stone pelting syndrome which consumed Kashmir's full last summer did not produce the expected result of either dismantling the ongoing state's coalition government or forcing New Delhi to make out of box concessions. Formation of All Party Parliamentary delegation, which visited the valley and sent in its assessment of the situation, followed by visits of a Task Force Committee and also the Interlocutors committee, are meant to suggest remedial measures to existing disgruntlement or economic debilities in urban and rural parts of the state. The grandiose rhetoric of the Interlocutors that they have been given the mandate of a "political solution of Kashmir" is music to the ear.

Pronouncements of BJP top leadership in Jammu rally on 24 December is an indicator that behind- the- curtain or traditionally known Track II diplomacy may, at the end of the day, prove nothing short of an exercise in futility. Valley leadership may react angrily to the latest pronouncements of BJP leadership; nevertheless, they cannot afford to ignore its impact on their campaign of selling their stock to the Indian intelligentsia. The inconsiderate attempts of valley separatists and secessionists to rope in dissident elements like those from the Eastern states or the wayward theorist like Arundhati Roy for making a common cause, have immensely fueled BJP's engines to scuttle any known or unknown programme of "unique solution to the unique issue" of Kashmir

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

TOWARDS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

BY V. Y. KANTAK

 

Its time that we revisit the great masterpiece "Capitalism, Socialism & Democracy" written by the legendary Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942. In a kind of a prophetic analysis, the book argued that socialism will ultimately take over capitalism primarily led by intellectuals who, in fact, would have supported capitalism previously. Most importantly, the book coins a landmark term called "creative destruction" which implies a sort of 'positive destruction' where the old is replaced by something new (and better). In the absence of "creative" in destruction, there are no replacements; there are anarchies, chaos and lost opportunities.
Thailand is an apt example where destruction has not been so creative and presents a warning signal for Asia. The People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has its members from very middle class and elite that supported the 1992 democracy movement. 

Since the last decade, there have been numerous coups, bloody street protests and multiple rewritten constitutions. The political chaos is not because of democracy that they once fought for but because of the failed returns of the set up that they once idealised. Led by an agenda called "New Politics", PAD aims for democracy not from a theoretician's textbook but by radical "undemocratic" measures like direct appointment of parliamentarians, Thai style.

There are 22 democratic countries, seven quasi democracies, eight of them have nominal or questionable democracies and 11 are non-democratic countries in Asia. Recently, East Asia Barometer (EAB) conducted national random-sample surveys in five democracies (Mongolia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand), one old democracy (Japan), one quasi-democracy (Hong Kong), and one authoritarian system (China). Among these eight political systems, public satisfaction was incredibly low in most of them with the lowest in democratic Japan and Taiwan. For example, one-half (52 per cent) of Japanese respondents believed that 'almost all' or 'most' officials in the national government are corrupt.

Add to it the possibility of failed states in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and East Timor. Based on a long-standing research programme of the World Bank, the Kaufmann-Kraay-Mastruzzi Worldwide Governance Indicators, which capture six key dimensions of governance (voice and accountability, political stability and lack of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) between 1996 and present, the top five most populous countries in Asia, namely China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which together have half the population of the world, are in the low 10-50th percentile in terms of quality of governance. Essentially, this means that half of the world's population has abysmal low quality of governance.
Consider another important paradox of Asia which is with regard to its economic system. On a larger canvas, the picture seems very rosy like its GDP of around $22 trillion and an annual growth of per capita GDP of around 7.5 per cent. According to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) research, income inequality in developing Asia has increased over the last 10 years. The increase in inequality is significant for populous countries. The ADB research also says that in terms of absolute inequality the top 20 per cent have seen their expenditures/incomes grow considerably faster than those at the bottom (bottom 20 per cent). This inequality does not mean that the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer but it is the rich getting richer faster than the poor, which is increasing the inequality.

The unevenness of growth can also be seen in various spheres of economic life. The ADB research states that growth has been uneven across sub-national locations (across provinces, regions, or states). Second, growth has been uneven across sectors - across the rural and urban sectors, as well as across sectors of production (especially, agriculture versus industry and services). Third, growth has been uneven across households, such that incomes at the top of the distribution have grown faster than those in the middle and/or bottom.
There is an increasing trend towards asserting the identity of social groups based on either region, linguistics, religion or caste. This can be seen in the rise of identity-related conflicts in Asia. One remarkable research titled 'Culture, Identity and Conflict in Asia 1945-2007', conducted by Professor Aurel of the University of Heidelberg, gives some very interesting insights into this. In this research, Asia tops as the number one contributor to conflicts worldwide. The trend is towards intra-state conflicts which have remarkably increased in Asia than the inter-state ones. There has been an increase in identity conflicts and the special relevance of history-related conflicts especially since the 1970s. This resurgence of identity and its subsequent manifestation in conflicts can be attributed to the non-fulfillment of social aspirations in the governance system of the state.
Asia is standing at the cross roads where it needs a "creative destruction" in multiple facets. If the architecture of governance is not reinvented by choice there will be an eruption of chaos leading to a 'destructive destruction' rather than a 'creative destruction' which will be the biggest challenge for Asia in the decades to come. (INAV)

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

GSLV FAILURE

NEED TO DRAW THE RIGHT LESSONS

 

THE Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) suffered much loss of face when its Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) failed less than a minute after it was launched, and subsequently had to be destroyed. A three-stage 418-tonne vehicle, the 51-metre-long GSLV uses solid propellants in the first stage, along with four strap-on booster motors. Liquid propellants come into play in the second stage and cryogenic propellants in the third. The December-25 failure happened during the hitherto reliable first stage itself. The GSLV has had a dubious record with four out of the seven launches since 2001 ending in failure. For ISRO, the loss of the Rs 3-billion mission that was scheduled to launch an advanced communications satellite was particularly painful, since ISRO was hoping to set a new record with its heaviest payload ever.

 

The GSAT-5P communication satellite carried in the ill-fated mission weighed 2,310 kg, and was thus 180 kg heavier than the INSAT-4CR that had been successfully sent aloft by a GSLV in 2007. The successful launch of this satellite would have put India in an exclusive club of which only the US, France, Japan, China and Russia are members. The loss of the GSAT-5P satellite will also affect various sectors like telecommunication, telecasting and banking services that were depending on its 36 transponders to boost their coverage.

 

While the exact cause of the GSLV failure is still unclear, pending the findings of an inquiry into the matter, its payload itself is under scrutiny as a possible cause of some of the cables snapping, which led to the GSLV to deviate from its flight path. Travel in space is unforgiving and gives no room for any margin of error. Space ventures have to face failure from time to time. When that happens, it is imperative to pick up the pieces, learn what went wrong and apply the lessons learnt to future missions.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

DALIT GIRLS SHOW THE WAY

THEIRS IS AN EXAMPLE WORTH EMULATING

 

MOST of us are victims of our circumstances. Only a rare few conquer them to come up trumps. One such fine example of grit and determination has been set by Meenu and Yachana Sarswal, two Dalit sisters from Musimbal, a small village in Yamunanagar (Haryana), who cleared the HCS (judicial) examination this year. The odds were heavily stacked against them. In rural Haryana, daughters are rarely considered equal to sons. It is to the credit of their father, Raghuvir Ram, that he did not bring them up in a stereotype fashion. Incidentally, they have a third sister also, who has done her MBA. As the father proudly says, "I have three daughters and I have never felt the need for a son". Highly encouraging words from someone belonging to a state which is notorious for its skewed sex ratio!

 

Being Dalits makes their quest for excellence all the more creditable, considering that many avenues of progress have been traditionally denied to them. Now that they are being offered equal opportunities, they are coming into their own and proving how cruel and partial society has been towards them down the ages. Education is the key to empowerment and here is hoping that many more will emulate the praiseworthy example they have set.

 

It is heartening that the girls want to do something special to save the girl child. Not only that, they will also do well to ensure that no injustice is done to anyone on the basis of either sex or caste. They have been able to live up to their own expectations and those of their loved ones because they got a conducive environment to work in. The new role models should now aspire to become catalysts for the upliftment of the other downtrodden. That will be the best way for them to celebrate their success.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

NEW DISABILITY LAW

MUST SATISFY THOSE FOR WHOM IT IS MEANT

 

IN a country that is better known for its insensitivity rather than empathy for the differently-abled, the need for a new disability law couldn't have been more pressing. More so since the existing Persons with Disabilities Act 1995 leaves a lot to be desired. Thus, a committee for drafting new legislation for persons with disabilities was formed in May this year. Now the government appointed committee itself is a divided house. One of the panel members Rajiv Rajan, suffering from cerebral palsy, has not only expressed dissatisfaction with the undemocratic functioning of the committee but also resigned from it. What is more unnerving is that some others have threatened to follow suit.

 

Voices of lack of satisfaction with the proposed disability law have been raised earlier also. The National Centre for Promotion of Employment for Disabled Persons too had rejected the law as proposed by the government and demanded a comprehensive Act. Now Rajiv Rajan's objection " I don't see any possibility of passing of five or six laws at one go." has found an echo among other differently-abled members. Indeed, if the "One Disability Law Code" has failed to satisfy its members with special needs, it is unlikely to meet the requirements of the differently-abled population of the country.

 

Undeniably, any new law must be all encompassing and not only cover all the rights of the specially challenged but also must possess an iron clad implementation mechanism. Equally imperative is the need for urgency in framing it. As it is India, which ratified the UN Convention on Disability in 2007, has lost much time in drafting a new law. For the sake of significant percentage of the Indian population (nearly 2.13 per cent suffer from some or the other disability) who have every right to life with dignity, disability friendly laws need to be passed at the earliest. At the same time these cannot ignore the voice of those whose cause they are meant to champion. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

TIME FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT IN RAIL TARIFF

PASSENGER TRAINS UTILISE ONLY 60 P.C. CAPACITY

BY R.C. ACHARYA

 

WITH a second class sleeper berth costing a mere Rs 400 for a 1600-km journey, or just 25 paise for a kilometre, Indian Railways provides perhaps the cheapest rail transport in the world! This drops down to only half if one chooses to go by unreserved accommodation, fighting your way into the coach to quickly grab a seat as the rake rolls onto the platform!

The passenger tariff has remained so for almost the last one decade while successive Railway Ministers, in a bid to maintain a populist image, have studiously avoided any meaningful hike. However, in order to balance the budget, freight tariff has seen repeated hikes, mostly mid-season, away from the media attention associated with the Railway Budget, leading to a progressive loss of market share. Currently, freight tariff for coal — which forms almost half the goods railways carry — is about three times that of US Class-I Railroads on purchasing power parity!

 

The cheap fares have also led to an explosive growth in passenger rail travel which has increased exponentially over the last one decade, creating unmanageable crowds at major terminals, which have struggled to keep pace by expanding their infrastructure.

 

It has, however, been a losing race, at least on the Delhi division of Northern Railway, which has witnessed stampedes practically every year, especially during the peak season as it happened recently at New Delhi station. A major initiative of increasing the number of platforms from 8 to 14 undertaken a few years back has proved to be inadequate to handle the massive rise in passenger volumes.

 

With about 200 new trains being added every year over the last one decade, the 64000-km-long system has achieved a world record of over 9000 passenger trains daily which registered a whopping 6,94,764 million passenger km, higher than the Chinese Railways 6,89,618 million passenger km in 2007!

 

Rajdhanis being considered a status symbol, over the years practically every state has demanded and got one connecting Delhi to its state capital. At the last count there were 19 in all, including the duplicate ones running to Kolkata and Mumbai, and these with their higher average speed continue to take a very heavy toll of other trains.

 

Coming in from the east, as many as five of them — from Howrah, Sealdah, Bhubhaneswar, Patna and Guwahati — converge into New Delhi taking precedence over all the other superfast trains which may happen to be caught in their path! Of course, the poor freight train has just no way of recording a run of more than a 200-km a day on these high-profile routes.

 

Unfortunately, the introduction of new trains has been almost institutionalised by the Zonal Railway Consultative Committees adorned by well-known public figures and members of the legislature . In a blatant attempt to prove their clout, the honourable members fall over each other to come up with suggestions for new trains, new halts of the existing trains, catering contracts, over-bridges, etc, generally spelling out their opinion on how the Railways should run its business, never mind the consequences of an insufficient capacity on trunk routes and spreading financial resources too thin!

 

Perhaps, the most telling effect of this plethrora of new trains is on major terminals, in particular New Delhi which has to bear the brunt of all high profile trains — Gharib Raths, Sampark Krantis, etc — which have been added to the dozens of Rajdhanis and Shatabdis originating from the Capital. These provide an explosive mix when to this get added the long-distance superfast trains, resulting in chaos and very often stampedes during the peak season.

 

Unable to stem the tide of new trains for over a decade or so, Delhi division has upgraded some of its outlying stations to full-fledged terminals. Time is now ripe to decongest New Delhi, with Old Delhi being designated to cater to mostly North, Anand Vihar to East, Sarai Rohilla to West and Nizamuddin to South-bound trains, while the Rajdhanis, the Shatabdis and some of the long-distance superfast prestigious trains would continue to originate from New Delhi. Recently there was a major shift of some of the special trains being run eastward for Chhat festival, from New Delhi to Anand Vihar.

 

A "White Paper" brought out by Ms Mamata Banerjee in December 2009 had lamented the fact that passenger trains utilise nearly 60 per cent of the track capacity yet they contribute only 33 per cent of the revenue and affect the scope of running more freight trains on trunk routes.

 

However, it remains to be seen if she will "place her money where her mouth is", and will effectively curb the introduction of new trains, or it will be business as usual and in the run-up to the elections in West Bengal, populist inputs would continue to be given top priority!

 

The writer is a former Member (Mechanical), Railway Board.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

ARTICLE

VALUES FOR LIVING

BY S. ANANDALAKSHMY

 

WE live in a confusing world. Information in bits and pieces are scattered around us — even thrown at us — at meteoric speed from various sources: newspapers and magazines, the Net and networks, television channels and the cinema, the indispensable mobile phone and the latest harvest of Apples and Blackberries! For the young who are still at school and college, add the diet of the enormous curriculum, presented in sizeable chunks, with little thought for their absorption.

 

It is a challenge to make meaning out of all this. It is even more difficult to make decisions about everyday matters, which would be realistic, as well as just and ethical. Should children learn from the examples of 'successful' and rich people? Can people who live exemplary lives with modest means and integrity be role models for the young? Are real heroes found only in history books and traditional legends or does contemporary India offer any icons?

 

As we all know, parents plan furiously for their children's future, wanting the best for them, naturally. However, in the process, the definition of what is "best" tends to get distorted. Globalisation and the market offer choices, of course, but subtly define the very objective of our lives. The result is a condition that has been called "Affluenza"!

 

This may perhaps refer to a narrow, upper segment of the population. The other end of the spectrum, where families eke out a sparse living, also calls for our collective and immediate attention. People at all levels of the economic scale aspire for a better future for their children, but they are mostly unsure about how to negotiate the demands of the Present with the expectations of the Future.

 

If one should just walk into a classroom of 10-year-olds and ask them to mention short words beginning with the letter S, they are more likely to come up with SCAM rather than 'skip', 'ship', 'soup' 'shot' or 'song'. We are bombarded with scams as they bounce like rockets off domes and terraces. We are left angry and helpless at the sheer immensity and dominance of dishonesty in all walks of life.

 

Do we, as concerned adults, have a responsibility to guide children? Can we help them to believe that it is possible to be principled and still lead a good life? Can they plan to make the world a better place? How do we ensure that the value for peace and living in harmony is inculcated among the young under our care? How do we engender compassion and helpfulness and a sense of shared humanity in children?

Written by Dr S. Anandalakshmy, President, Bal Mandir Research Foundation, Chennai. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

MYANMAR: GREAT EXPECTATIONS AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS

THE MILITARY, WHICH HAS BEEN IN POWER IN MYANMAR FOR NEARLY 50 YEARS, HAS CHOSEN TO EMULATE THE DWIFUNGSI MODEL OF INDONESIA. COULD THE MILITARY EVENTUALLY RECONCILE ITSELF TO A LIMITED ROLE AS IN INDONESIA IF IT WAS ASSURED OF SOME SORT OF IMMUNITY AGAINST PROSECUTION BY AN INTERNATIONAL COURT? 

UDAI BHANU SINGH

 

MYANMAR is going through a significant phase in its political evolution. First, it held its polls for the first time in two decades on November 7 to elect representatives to both union and state legislatures. Second, pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest post-elections. Although no radical change is expected, its significance lies in the fact that now the new constitution may begin to unfold itself. The last elections were held in May 1990 when, in spite of registering a resounding victory, the National League for Democracy (NLD) was unable to come to power.

 

When the government introduced a fuel price hike in August 2007 a spontaneous upsurge of protests followed on the streets of Yangon and elsewhere right through September. Buddhist monks actively supported it. But the movement did not lead to a political victory as it happened in neighbouring Indonesia, or the Philippines. Instead, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) pressed on with its own road-map for democracy. The result was a new constitution in 2008 which was duly approved through a referendum held in May that year. Will the latest elections change the fortune of Myanmar?

 

What are the contending forces and their perceptions in Myanmar? The country had two constitutions before the current one was adopted: the one framed in 1947 accorded some states the right to secede after 10 years. The present constitution (Chapter I, Article 10) explicitly rules out such a possibility: "No part of the territory of the Union such as Regions, States, Union Territories and Self-Administered Areas, etc, shall ever secede from the Union". The 1974 constitution was Myanmar's second and was introduced following a referendum. The latest referendum results had an unrealistically high percentage vote in favour of the new constitution. The SPDC was accused of employing unfair means in the referendum.

 

The three most important political forces in Myanmar are: the military, the political parties and the ethnic groups. The ethnic minorities constitute an important factor in Myanmar's politics. The Burmans constitute about two-thirds of the total population while the Karens, the Shans, the Mons, the Rohingyas, the Chins and the Kachins are some of the prominent ethnic minorities. Critics point out that the military junta lays emphasis on one language (Burmese), one religion (Buddhism) and one ethnicity (Burman). Members of the other ethnic groups (non-Burmans/non-Buddhists) are excluded from ranks higher than Major in the Army. They are excluded from the top levels of military hierarchy. The military (the SPDC and SLORC earlier) has dominated the political spectrum for the last 48 years.

 

The ethnic minorities remain an important factor in Myanmar's politics. They were hoping that the new Panglong Agreement may meet their aspirations, but in vain.

The military, which has been in power for nearly 50 years, has chosen to emulate the dwifungsi model of Indonesia. Could the military eventually reconcile itself to a limited role as in Indonesia if it was assured of some sort of immunity against prosecution by an international court? The 2008 constitution provides a dominant role for the armed forces (tatmadaw). The President has wide-ranging powers. The constitution is peppered with special privileges for the tatmadaw. In addition, there is an entire chapter devoted to the defence services (Chapter VII).

* The President would be from the tatmadaw and wield enormous powers (including the power to nominate the Chief Justice).

* The key ministries would be headed by the military. The Ministers for Defence, Security/Home Affairs and Border Affairs would be nominated from among the tatmadawmen.

 

* A quarter of the seats in the two Houses of Parliament are to be reserved for the military.

 

* The C-in-C can assume full sovereign power by declaring an emergency if the disintegration of the Union is feared.

 

In addition, there was a reshuffle of military personnel recently and some senior military leaders reportedly hung up their uniforms to contest the civilian seats. Around 37 political parties contested the recent elections for the 440-seat People's Assembly and the 224-seat Nationalities Assembly and the state and regional assemblies. The 10 political parties which were deregistered included the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD). Some of the ethnic groups were denied the opportunity to form political parties.

 

The smaller parties had to contend with funding limitations (registration fee of Kt.500,000 or US $500) and campaign restrictions (including slow Internet). At the time of the elections there were over 2,000 political prisoners. Some 32 townships were excluded from the electoral process — in the states called Shan, Kachin, Karen, Karenni and Mon. As was expected, the two government-sponsored political parties won with a comfortable margin. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which has grown from the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) led by Prime Minister Thein Sein, fielded over 1,000 candidates. The National Unity Party, the other government-sponsored outfit, fielded over 900 candidates. The opposition parties could field much fewer candidates. During the campaign these parties tried (somewhat unsuccessfully) to form alliances. Some of the parties had even opened Facebook accounts for the purpose of canvassing.

 

Now that the elections are over, the military is expected to implement the remaining two steps in its seven-point road-map for democracy, and these include convening the national and state assemblies and building a modern, developed and democratic nation. Although the government can appoint technocrats as Cabinet ministers, it is unlikely that Myanmar will witness a major overhaul of its economic policy (as had occurred in Indonesia with the help of the 'Berkeley mafia'— the American economists who guided economic policy-making in Indonesia).

 

Externally, Myanmar continues to face criticism from the US the EU countries, at the United Nations and also from individual members of ASEAN. But Myanmar managed some leeway at the ASEAN Summit in Hanoi where it was not in the focus.

 

Implications for India

 

As a democracy itself, India would like to see that democracy flourishes in its neighbourhood. But it has no interest in imposing its views on others. Experience suggests that an externally imposed system has a lesser chance of success than an indigenous one. In this geostrategically sensitive region, where Chinese influence is constantly on the increase, India would like to ensure that a political transition, when it occurs in Myanmar, is as smooth as possible lest India's security, economic and regional interests are put in jeopardy.

 

The visit of Myanmar President Than Shwe to India has to be viewed in this light. It is a painful truth that the transition process, which has only just been initiated, has still a long way to go. With the elections held, the constitutional provisions will take their own course and it may be difficult to seek a change in the constitution. In such a situation, it will be difficult to secure complete civilian control over the military.

 

The military is the only institution, with the experience of administering the country, which has survived in Myanmar. As in the case of Indonesia, it needs reiteration "that conditions that trigger the breakdown of authoritarian regimes are not necessarily supportive of transition to democracy".

 

The writer is Senior Research Associate, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

BENAZIR AND WOMEN IN PAKISTAN

WINDOW ON PAKISTAN

SYED NOORUZZAMAN

 

THE third anniversary of Benazir Bhutto's assassination --- December 27 — at the hands of terrorists in

Rawalpindi provided an occasion to many newspapers to lament the poor status of women in Pakistan. But before one looks at the scenario of women's empowerment, it will be interesting to point out that there was a major debate when the late PPP leader became the first female Prime Minister of a Muslim-majority country in 1988. Those who did not want a woman to lead the government despite being elected by the people expressed the view that her elevation would lead to Pakistan getting ruined.

The critics were silenced when the pro-Benazir camp gave the example of Prophet Mohammad's revered widow Hazrat Ayesha leading one group of the then Islamic state whose army came in an eyeball-to-eyeball position challenging the forces commanded by her own highly respected son-in-law Hazrat Ali. That the conflict ended without the battle having been fought is a different matter. Benazir emerged as the most popular leader of her country though the government she formed, first in 1988 and then in 1993, was dismissed on corruption charges. She fell to her assassin's bullets in 2007 when she reached Pakistan after a long self-imposed exile.

As Daily Times commented in an editorial, "It is a travesty of fate that even though Ms Bhutto's party is in power and her widower the President of Pakistan, there is no closure (of the case) regarding her assassination. Those who have been caught are not the masterminds of BB's (Benazir Bhutto's) murder plot."

 

She became a victim of "politics of violence" which, she believed, "is the dire enemy of the hopes, the dreams and the ambitions of our people". She has been quoted to have expressed these thoughts by Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in an article carried in Daily Times and The News on Dec 27. However, Gilani nowhere mentions her drive for women's emancipation, so essential in a country which some time ago saw schools being burnt by extremists because girls were being imparted education in these institutions.

 

There is no dearth of fighters for women's rights in Pakistan like well-known lawyer Asma Jehangir and Mukhtaran Mai (who was gang-raped and paraded naked in the streets of her village in a tribal area). But they have been able to do very little because of the strong anti-women societal attitude. The latest example of how even educated women are opposed by their near and dear ones from entering the job market is of Rabia Sultana, a cashier at McDonald's in Karachi. Her case has hit the newspaper headlines as her brother is after her life because she has decided to be financially self-dependent. No doubt, women from all sections of society are coming out of the four walls of their houses to earn a living out of necessity. But they are doing this at great risk to their lives and limbs.

 

As Huma Yusuf says in an article in Dawn, "Rather than celebrate the exceptions (like that of Asma Jehangir, chief of the Pakistan Supreme Court Bar Association), the international community should pressurise the government to prioritise women's empowerment. The first step towards curing a problem is admitting that you have one." Huma is right. Mr Gilani's article shows that he is not as bothered about women's rights as other issues. 

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MUMBAI MIRROR

VIEW

THOUGHT AND BOWLED ZAHEER

HE'S NOT LIGHTNING FAST OR HIT-THE-COIN ACCURATE, BUT ZAK HAS EVOLVED INTO A VERSION 2.0 PACE SPEARHEAD WHO OUT-THINKS BATSMEN INSTEAD OF BLOWING THEM AWAY

 

Three months after the 2008 Beijing Olympics, on December 26, Muralidhar Raja's phone wouldn't stop ringing. Every few minutes, journalists wanted to know why the secretary-general of the Indian boxing federation had not planned anything special that evening. "This despite Vijender's medal! Have you no sense of occasion?" one indignant reporter apparently asked him. 

 

Raja was so distraught that he had to issue a statement enlightening the media about the origins of Boxing Day, explaining in great detail how it was the time to open Christmas boxes, nothing at all to do with the sport of boxing. 

 

The sport of cricket, however, has a long association with Boxing Day. You don't need to read an embarrassing press release to know that the annual Test in Melbourne, coupled for the last few years with another in Durban, makes the last week of December the most entertaining the sport has to offer. While Australia are already too far gone against England, India's one-man pace attack, Zaheer Khan, struck back against South Africa yesterday to ensure cricket's hyped year-end drama did not end in an anti-climax. 

When Zaheer runs in to bowl, butt jutting out, back locked stiff at a 60-degree angle, wrist cocked, arms waiting to gently unfurl into a release that's part high and part round-arm, you wonder what he could produce from this inflexible action. 

 

He's neither loose and limbering like Ashish Nehra, who could once make the delivery swing in and then cut away, nor ramrod straight like Srinath, who got disconcerting bounce through a flurry arms and legs in his follow-through. And he's a far cry from the rhythmic poetry of Kapil Devil's gliding, close-to-the-stumps leap. 

 

For a sport that's been romanced by Imran Khan, Dennis Lillee, Malcolm Marshall, and Allan Donald, Zaheer won't go down in history as a great fast bowler. He's not lightning fast or surprisingly nippy, and batsmen don't quake in their boots at the very thought of seeing him screaming in from 22 yards away. 

 

He's not even in the same category as Glenn McGrath, Curtly Ambrose or Richard Hadlee, who keep bowling at that same perfect line, confident it's good enough because no batsman can have the patience to fend them off all day. 

 

Five years from now, you'll perhaps find many who swear by Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel, who look like genuine quicks even though they're too young to have statistics speak for them, but no one who takes offence if you overlook Zaheer from your list of cricket's 50 top quicks. 

 

Be that as it may, over the last few years, Zaheer has started to emerge as a rare phenomenon: a version 2.0 pace spearhead who doesn't blow away opposition batsmen with that one unplayable delivery, or that one irritating length, but out-thinks them by consistently bowling what they're least expecting. 

Zaheer has a delivery that can swing back enough to get right-handers lbw; one that can move away late; one that's slightly short of length; a well-disguised slower ball; and a yorker that can be hard to dig out. Instead of using one of them as his primary weapon, Zaheer is still mixing them up when he charges in. His yorker may not be as deadly as Waqar Younis's toe-crusher, or his incutter as effective as McGrath's after three have moved away, but it's still good enough if the batsman is caught unawares. 

 

It took a while for Zaheer to get off the blocks – he lost his way a couple of times due to poor fitness and because he wasn't on the right side during the dark Chappell years – but a decade into his career, he's consistently racking-up strike-bowler figures. The last two seasons have been particularly good: four five-wicket hauls, a careerbest 7-87, and three potentially serieschanging top-order wickets at Kingsmead yesterday. 
    Who would've thought it. In his own way, Zak of all trades is finally becoming a master.

 

KUNAL PRADHAN

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COLUMN

THE DIESEL DILEMMA

MANY GOOD REASONS WHY PRICE MUST BE HIKED

 

The empowered group of ministers (eGoM) on fuel pricing is to meet this week to take a view on the price of diesel. Renewed fears about inflation, triggered by the spike in vegetable prices, may exert pressure on the government and force it to delay a decision. Of all the sources of fuel, diesel has the highest weight, of 4.6702 per cent, in the wholesale price index (WPI), which works as India's headline rate of inflation. Petrol comes second with a WPI weight of 1.09015 per cent, followed by LPG with a weight of 0.91468 per cent and kerosene with 0.73619 per cent weight. These weights are dated and would need changing, but there is no doubt that diesel still constitutes an important source of fuel for the economy with an exaggerated potential to impact inflation, given the pass through potential of diesel users in the transport sector. It is a measure of the mood of cynicism today that most observers do not, in fact, expect a decision to come out of the meeting of the eGoM. That would be a pity. There are several reasons why the government must act sooner rather than later in taking the tough call on diesel pricing.

 

First, the underpricing of diesel has encouraged inefficient consumption of an imported source of energy. While the older problem of diesel vehicles being a source of greater pollution than petrol-fuelled vehicles is no longer necessarily true, given the availability of good-quality diesel, the fact is that the even lower cost of kerosene has encouraged adulteration of diesel as well as petrol, adding to the problem of pollution. Subsidised diesel has become a major polluter in urban and rural India. Economic pricing of the product can have a salutary impact on consumption and, therefore, a positive impact on pollution levels. Second, subsidised diesel has destroyed the bottom line of oil marketing companies, thereby hurting the legitimate interests of their shareholders, and added to the government's rising and high budgetary deficit. It is estimated that public sector oil marketing companies lose an average of Rs 6.08 per litre on diesel, Rs 17.72 a litre on kerosene and Rs 272.19 per 14.2-kg LPG cylinder. These companies are expected to bear a loss of a whopping Rs 68,000 crore this year if government policy is not changed.

 

 The pressure to increase diesel prices arises also out of the fact that globally energy prices, especially oil prices, are once again rising. Already at $90 per barrel, crude oil is expected to sell once again in the triple digits in the not-too-distant future. The ministry of petroleum and natural gas has for a long time now tried to please all on petroleum pricing and has, in the process, messed up the oil economy in India. The government's recent tough decision to allow market forces to determine petrol prices was a brave and a good one. It should extend the logic of its thinking on petrol prices to diesel prices as well, for all the reasons we have mentioned. Without a correction on diesel, LPG and kerosene prices, the government's fiscal management programme will be adversely affected. Worse, the persistent problem of inefficient use of scarce energy resources and the problem of air pollution, caused by the adulteration of petrol and diesel with kerosene, and the adulteration of petrol with diesel, will continue unabated.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

ACCOUNTING CROP OUTPUT

NEW TECHNIQUES BASED ON REMOTE SENSING CAN HELP

 

Official statistics in India have long been suspected to be no better than "guesstimates", and in more recent years, the quality of Indian statistics has, in fact, declined. This despite the fact that the administrative machinery for data collection has been refurbished with the creation of the National Statistical Commission. Several expert committees have been examining the quality of data in different sectors of the economy and recommending improvement. A committee headed by economist and former Planning Commission Member A Vaidyanathan has now mooted a two-pronged strategy to revamp the procedure of compiling agricultural estimates. It involves greater use of satellite-based remote sensing technology and restructuring of the data collection machinery. For implementation of this strategy, the committee has suggested establishment of a wholly new entity — national crop statistics centre (NCSC). The committee has itself acknowledged that there could be problems with existing remote sensing techniques and admits that a large part of the reason for existing deficiencies in official statistics could be related to the weakness of human capital engaged in data collection and analysis. The officials in charge of "girdawari" (actual field-level recording to crop sowing and projection of expected crop yields) are notorious for not doing their job properly. They often send cooked-up reports without actual field visits. Even crop cutting experiments for estimating crop yields at the end of the cropping season are often conducted improperly, resulting in glaring inaccuracies. This apart, most state governments, having abolished land revenue, which required maintenance of meticulous land-use records, do not give due priority to this task any more. Village-level staff is usually overburdened with multiple functions. Inspections of the records by higher-level officials for verifying their accuracy is usually rare. If the proposed NCSC also has to operate through similar grass roots functionaries and under similar circumstances, malpractices may be difficult to do away with.

 

Satellite-based remote sensing technology can help improve farm data collection, but it has its limitations. That is perhaps why the scope of FASAL (forecasting agricultural output using space agro-meteorology and land-based observations) is still restricted chiefly to revalidating the manually collected numbers and not for gathering primary data. Necessary models for generating state- and national-level data are currently available only for a few major crops, such as rice, wheat, potato, cotton, sugarcane, sorghum and the like. Besides, the ability of satellite imageries to differentiate between similar-looking crops is limited. So is their ability to capture areas under minor crops and mixed crops grown on small and fragmented lands. Fortunately, remote sensing technology is making rapid advances in terms of both satellite capacities and resolution of the imageries. What is lacking are reliable models which can forecast likely crop output, taking into account the large number of factors, including input-use and weather, that go into determining crop yields. However, given the inadequacy of existing data collection systems, greater reliance on remote sensing technology could help.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

 

 LOWERING THE STOCK OF EXCHANGES

THE BAN ON LISTING AND OTHER ROADBLOCKS ON OWNERSHIP HAVE TAINTED THE JALAN COMMITTEE REPORT

AJIT RANADE

 

In January 2010, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) appointed a committee under the chairmanship of former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan to recommend changes in ownership and governance of stock exchanges (SEs), depositories and clearing corporations. The committee submitted its report on November 22 last. A welcome feature of this submission is that the report has been put up for public discussion on the Sebi website. Which means that Sebi will act on the recommendations, if at all, on the basis of the report as well as public feedback. The committee not only met stakeholders during the process of writing the report, but has also participated in public meetings thereafter. Of course, at this stage there is no question of revising the report, but at least these public discussions give a chance for the committee to explain its rationale and thought process.

 

All this is quite remarkably transparent, especially when it comes to government (or regulator)-mandated committees, and it deserves some praise. Committee reports in the past have had a tendency to get buried, or have disappear from public gaze. In the era of RTI, that may be changing but a thorough public scrutiny is always welcome. Dr Jalan's letter to Sebi also asks that a fresh look be taken after five years by a new committee at all the recommendations of his committee.

 

All this is part of the good news about the Jalan Committee report. But as for its substantive recommendations, there are far too many misgivings among many stakeholders of capital markets. The report has ruffled many feathers (and not just of the usual suspects), and there have been numerous and strident protestations in the press already.

 

The two most contentious recommendations relate to (a) prohibition on listing of stock exchanges; and (b) restrictions on ownership of stock exchanges. Both these are likely to have a dampening effect on the valuation of the many stock exchanges in the country, which have been waiting eagerly for a piece of the action. Capital markets remain almost like a greenfield opportunity in India due to their huge untapped potential, and any restriction on entry is surely a dampener for entrants as well as the industry itself. So, why has the Jalan Committee put these perceived roadblocks?

 

The backdrop for the two controversial recommendations is that the committee views stock exchanges as market infrastructure institutions (MIIs), which need a special treatment. This is because presumably MIIs are systemically important, are public utilities, are natural monopolies and enjoy economies of scale. Unfortunately, each of these characterisation can be applied to various other financial or even non-financial institutions, which are not subject to the same recommendations as the Jalan Committee ones. For example, traditionally, electricity and telecom are considered public utilities, and even natural monopolies. But we have long given up the notion that they should be purely publicly owned, or that they should not be listed. We allow unlimited free entry, even when some people despair of the overcrowding that competition entails (Competition and overcrowding, Business Standard, May 25, 2010). Besides, technological change constantly challenges what is considered a natural monopoly or not.

 

SEs perform the role of price discovery and capital allocation. A stable, well-governed and trustworthy SE attracts companies as well as investors, traders and speculators. This provides greater liquidity and lower impact of individual trades on prices. This is the natural monopoly feature, since more the participants, better the liquidity and price discovery. But a single SE can never be expected to be the fount of all innovations for all time to come. Otherwise Nasdaq or the NSE would never have been born. Hence, without competition from other SEs or would-be entrants, the SE may become complacent, or prone to abusing its monopoly status. Electronics, telecommunication and interconnectedness remove the possibility of price arbitrage between multiple exchanges. This means that efficient price discovery no longer requires a single giant SE.

 

To be fair, on competition, the Jalan Committee has been open about the exact number. It has left to Sebi to decide what should be the appropriate number of SEs to license. That number is surely greater than two, but probably far less than two dozen. But as illustrated by telecom, we need to be sceptical about conventional wisdom. In the era of electronic exchanges with ever-tightening oversight of the regulator, a new entrant can only compete on technology and costs. So, free entry, or the fear of free entry, is essential to keep the stock market deepening and expanding.

 

Surprisingly, the Jalan Committee did not keep its openness regarding the number of competitors, as regards the listing option. Prohibiting listing means that newer exchanges have to entice investors with alternative paths for value creation. Given that newer exchanges will have to invest heavily in technology, or invest considerably in reaching out to "tier two and three" level investors and geographies, they will need risk capital. Smaller exchanges catering to niche segments like SME risk capital may need to come up. This capital will want to see a path to value creation, and not just via a dividend flow. Prohibiting the listing option is cutting off flow of potential risk capital into stock exchanges.

 

 

Finally, on governance and ownership, the committee takes a stand that no one entity can own more than five percent of the exchange from day one. The exception to this are institutional investors like banks. But a diffused ownership from the beginning might lead to "management hijack", or investor disinterest, or both. Lack of a passionate entrepreneur in the initial years might seal an SE's fate. In fact, Dr Jalan could have borrowed from guidelines on new entrants into banking, who are typically given a seven-to-ten year road map for dilution.

 

"Governance" is a word which does not have a suitable translation into Hindi, or any other Indian language. But just because we do not have the right word, it does not mean that Indians don't recognise good governance when they see it.

 

Granted that the Jalan Committee was not supposed to produce a magnum opus that would address all issues like financial inclusion, SME access to capital and funds or capital market deepening. But nevertheless, the road map that it has given to ensure sound governance and healthy competition is too rigid, and likely to scare off new entrants or new developments.

 

The author is chief economist, Aditya Birla Group. The views expressed are personal

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

DIGGING TUBE WELLS IN AN EARTHQUAKE

NEW DELHI'S STAR IS FADING OVER KABUL AND THE RISING SUN IS PAKISTAN'S

AJAI SHUKLA

 

India's sway in Afghanistan has, over the last four decades, been an alternating saga of triumph and despair, driven largely by tumultuous events beyond our control. But now, for no reason other than negligence, New Delhi's star is fading over Kabul and the rising sun is Pakistan's.

 

 Nine years ago, on November 13, alongside a swarm of Tajik soldiers of the Northern Alliance, I entered a Kabul from where defeated Taliban stragglers were fleeing for their lives. From a no-go zone during the five nightmarish Taliban years, the Afghan capital was suddenly strongly pro-India. Having openly backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, New Delhi enjoyed close relations with Afghanistan's new power centres, even with Hamid Karzai, a token Pashtun leader, who was grafted in to head a new government.

 

Over succeeding years, New Delhi burnished its image through the well-directed injection of some $1.3 billion of humanitarian aid. India's soft power contrasted pleasingly with the heavily armed soldiers that emblemised the presence of many countries, and with Pakistan's brazen support for radical anti-Karzai groups, especially the Taliban, the Haqqani network and old-favourite Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami. India looked good in the eyes of the Afghans and the world; and the lower price that we paid in lives gave us sustainability in Afghanistan, something that was denied many other countries by their concerned publics.

 

Ironically, the very success of this strategy may have engendered the complacency that prevented New Delhi from trimming its sails along with the changing strategic winds in Afghanistan. Washington's decision to pull out troops from that country — whether in 2011 or 2014 will be a mere historical detail — has knocked the bottom out of India's aid-led strategy, which rested on the foundation of security provided by the US-Nato combine. In the bedlam of a post-US Afghanistan, political presence and muscle will count for more than hearts and minds won.

 

From the presidential palace in Kabul, a beleaguered Hamid Karzai contemplates this reality: while Pakistan flaunts its proxies, India remains inexplicably unwilling to provide the overt political support that would reassure Karzai in confronting the looming threats. Unsurprisingly, the beleaguered Afghan president is dealing himself a playable hand by negotiating with the ISI-backed jehadi groups and cosying up with Islamabad.

 

Both these transgress the thickest of Indian red lines but India's political leadership remains unconcerned, focusing apparently on domestic political survival rather than the impending death-by-neglect of a crucial foreign policy initiative. The prime minister has not visited Afghanistan in five years, even as Kabul fervently seeks an unambiguous gesture of Indian support. Meanwhile, numerous visits to India by senior Afghan ministers and officials remain unreciprocated by their Indian counterparts. And Indian industry, risk-averse and content with picking low-hanging fruit in sheltered areas, has proved unwilling to invest in that country.

 

If New Delhi is not to be marginalised once again in Kabul, it needs to address a key Afghan complaint that I heard repeatedly from senior Afghan officials during my return to that country this month: "India's development aid, while deeply appreciated by the people of Afghanistan, cannot substitute for a political policy. As the pre-eminent power in South Asia, is India prepared to just build tube wells in Afghan villages while the country falls into Pakistan's lap?"

 

Adds Fahim Dashty, the vocally anti-Pakistan editor of Kabul Weekly: "Every Afghan, whether Pashtun, Tajik,

Uzbek or Hazara, regards India as a very good friend. But what is this friend prepared to do to prevent Afghanistan's neighbours (meaning Pakistan and Iran!) from playing their games in our country? While those countries make their intentions clear, Kabul has no idea what New Delhi is prepared to do in Afghanistan."

 

New Delhi must respond with clarity to these important questions from Kabul. India's riposte to the setback in Afghanistan needs to begin with an overdue state visit by Manmohan Singh to Afghanistan, something that would be recognised in Kabul as an unambiguous gesture of continuing support. That country's newly elected Parliament (the Wolesi Jirga) will soon hold its inaugural session; India's prime minister should offer to visit at that time, which would almost certainly elicit an invitation to address the Jirga, given India's democratic credentials and the fact that it is constructing Afghanistan's new Parliament Building. That inauguration, a year or so from now, would provide the opportunity for another high-profile visit, perhaps by a ten-member team of India's youngest Lok Sabha members.

 

Such political initiatives must go hand-in-hand with confidence-building with Pakistan, working towards allaying Islamabad's suspicion about our motives. It is worth recalling that, in Colombo, in July 2008, before 26/11 blew away the India-Pak dialogue, the two foreign secretaries — Shiv Shankar Menon and Salman Bashir — sensibly discussed their respective roles in Afghanistan. Two months later, India's National Security Advisor M K Narayanan briefed his visiting Pakistani counterpart Major General Mahmud Ali Durrani, with a presentation on India's developmental activities in Afghanistan. Durrani's response: Pakistan would be prepared to join hands with India in developing Afghanistan's schools and hospitals.

 

It will be, as the saying goes, a cold day in hell before India and Pakistan take such statements at face value. But

if India is to remain a political player in Afghanistan, it must quickly move beyond humanitarian aid and seize the political initiative.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

AND NOW, FEED SECURITY

INDIA NEGLECTS FODDER PRODUCTION - WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT FOOD AVAILABILITY

SURINDER SUD

 

Food security is getting attention, but feed security for India's huge livestock population is being unduly neglected. This apathy can prove costly since it can tacitly impinge on food security. Going by the current trend, the demand for livestock-based food products is expected to double in the next 10 years. Without adequate fodder and feed to sustain animal productivity, food availability may come under strain. Though the quantity of agricultural by-products that can be fed to animals is steadily increasing, much of it is in the form of dry straw, which is low in nutrition. The availability of relatively nutritious green fodder and concentrated grain-based feed, on the other hand, is not rising adequately. Grazing lands are also shrinking. Moreover, the vegetative cover of most of the pastures has severely degraded for lack of care.

 

The country has been divided into 55 micro-regions from the viewpoint of fodder availability. As many as 43 such zones are fodder-deficient, according to Dr K A Singh, director of the Jhansi-based Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute (IGFRI). However, surplus supplies in one region cannot be used to offset the deficit in the other, since it is uneconomical to transport fodder over long distances because it is too bulky. The solution, therefore, lies in promoting fodder production in fodder-scarce areas. The IGFRI has generated a good deal of technology to achieve this objective. However, the policy support to put the technology into practice is missing.

 

 The feed and fodder sector also suffers from paucity of investment. The 11th plan's allocation for developing food and fodder resources is a case in point. Of the Rs 4,903 crore allotted for the broad animal husbandry and dairy sector, only a meagre Rs 141.4 crore, or 2.88 per cent, has been earmarked for feed and fodder development.

 

In the past, traditional institutions were in place to look after grasslands and common lands used for grazing. Such institutions have ceased to exist because most of the lands that they maintained have been taken over by the government.

 

Converting wastelands into pastures can help expand pastures and other grazing tracts. This can be done using modern silvipastoral technology. This includes planting suitable fast-growing grasses along with fodder trees, which provide leaves and twigs as nutritious forage. Such silvipastures can enhance the overall productivity of wastelands up to 2.5 times. Fodder scientists believe that even if half of the country's wastelands are transformed into silvipastures, the fodder deficit can be tackled. In fact, land available along railway tracks and roads can also serve as grazing grounds.

 

There is, however, a need for a proper animal grazing policy to ensure that pastures and grazing lands are exploited sustainably. Though a draft grazing and livestock policy was formulated way back in 1994, it was seldom implemented the way it should have been.

 

Involvement of local people in managing grasslands and other grazing areas may also help. Such an approach has been tried with considerable success in the case of forests under the system of joint forest management. Local communities can regulate grazing to avoid any permanent damage to these lands.

 

Also, cultivated fodder crops are gradually being pushed to marginal and low-fertility lands, since these cannot compete economically with the alternative crops that can generate higher profits. The IGFRI is, however, striving to develop improved varieties of these crops to grow more fodder across every unit of land.

 

Several good varieties of berseem, a nutritious leguminous fodder crop that also fixes atmospheric nitrogen into the soil, are now available for cultivation in different parts of the country.

 

Thus, there is no dearth of options to ensure fodder security for the country's animal wealth. But suitable strategies are needed to tap the available potential to increase fodder and feed supplies.

 

Otherwise, it would be difficult to meet the growing demand for protein-rich livestock-based foods.

surinder.sud@gmail.com  

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

 

THE CRIME OF DISAFFECTION

NILANJANA S ROY

 

Section 124-A, under which I am happily charged, is perhaps the prince among the political sections of the Indian Penal Code designed to suppress the liberty of the citizens. Affection cannot be manufactured or regulated by law. If one has an affection(sic) for a person or system, one should be free to give the fullest expression to his disaffection, so long as he does not contemplate, promote or incite to violence. But the section under which Mr Banker (a colleague in non-violence) and I are charged is one under which mere promotion of disaffection is a crime.

 

These words, from Mahatma Gandhi's closing statement during his trial for sedition in 1922, have been quoted widely in India this year, along with the resurrection of the antiquated laws of Raj India. There were cries of sedition when Arundhati Roy made some remarks on the alienation felt by Kashmiris; this week, human rights activist Binayak Sen was sentenced to life imprisonment for sedition by a Raipur court in a much-criticised judgement.

 

 By 1909, fears of sedition had turned the British government in India into tireless readers. Sisir Kar's history of books banned in Bengal under the Raj quotes from a typical circular of the time that urges officers to carefully examine all suspicious material, to "facilitate the immediate detection of seditious books". As Gandhi was to note, the affection of the subject for the king, or the citizen for the state, could not be commanded — and it was markedly absent in those early years as the national movement gathered steam.

 

Bankimchandra's Ananda Math had been in print for 18 years at this time, and as its author, Bankim was struggling between the demands of his job as a government official and the need to express his discontent with the Raj. Between the first and the eighth edition of Ananda Math, the novel that added Vande Mataram to the lexicon of revolution and that would inspire the next generation of revolutionaries, Bankim made continuous changes to the text, often excising or softening sentences that seemed over-critical of the British. In one of the more unusual applications of censorship, there were periods when Ananda Math itself was not banned but the singing of Vande Mataram was proscribed, and the anthem treated as seditious.

 

By the time Sharatchandra's Pather Dabi (1926) was published, featuring, as theGovernment of Bengal Yearbook commented, "the most powerful act of sedition in almost every page of the book", disaffection was the spirit of the times. The long history of Pather Dabi, the confiscation of the novel, the exchange between Tagore and Sharatchandra on the impact and validity of criticising those in power, points to the fact that it was impossible for the Raj to allow questioning of the state without also admitting the disaffection and disillusionment of the writers who questioned it. Tagore disappointed Sharatchandra by praising the tolerance of the British, and by implicitly refusing to endorse the younger author's insistence that criticism was the only valid response to British rule.

 

Books like Ananda Math and Pather Dabi were only the most celebrated of their kind; in the attempt to check sedition, journals and books were often confiscated and plays were routinely proscribed or censored. Sisir Kar cites an unwittingly revealing letter from the police commissioner, allowing the production of Bankimchandra's Chandrashekhar to continue if certain objectionable portions were expunged — on pages 10, 19, 20, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 51, 54, 55, 80, 120,121, 123, 124, 127, 133, 148 and 151, leaving one to wonder what was left of the play.

 

All of this, including the trials of the likes of Bal Gangadhar Tilak and Aurobindo Ghose for sedition and conspiracy, was part and parcel of the paraphernalia of a state that was an occupying power, and that had to command the affection of the people who came under its rule. In an independent India, the question is whether the state should still feel paranoid enough to continue using a law where, as Gandhi puts it, "mere promotion of disaffection is a crime".

 

The writings of Arundhati Roy, for instance, or the work of Binayak Sen, would have placed them in the time of the British Raj among the ranks of the disaffected. Their willingness and the willingness of other writers and activists to question the workings of the state are definitely signs of disaffection. But in a healthy democracy, and a healthy state, the affection of its writers and citizens would be earned, not commanded. We need to ask whether the same laws that were used against Bankimchandra, Sharatchandra, Tilak and Gandhi should be pressed into service in a country that prides itself on its many freedoms.

 

nilanjanasroy@gmail.com  

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

COLONIAL NO MORE

DISSENT ISN'T SEDITION, THAT'S THE LAW

THE judgment of the Chhattisgarh trial court, sentencing Binayak Sen to life imprisonment on charges of sedition and conspiracy, isn't just shocking due to the concerned judge's apparent waiver of the gaps in the prosecution's case. In a wider context, it posits the spectre of intolerance against critics of state policy. The intent behind the law on sedition in the Indian Penal Code, as introduced by the British, was to enable the colonial state to deal with the fundamental contradiction between the illegitimacy of its rule and its attempt to try and legitimise that rule by criminalising those who sought to underline that contradiction. That rupture between the state and the people it governs disappeared, in principle, with Independence. And so the Supreme Court in 1962 defined Section 124A (on sedition) as being applicable only when there was a clear incitement to violence or armed rebellion. Implicit in that definition is the recognition of the Constitutional right to free speech, and political activity, as long as it does not violate that red line of violent disaffection against the state. 

 

Strictly legally speaking, the issue is an alarming disregard by the trial court of those facets of the law and of the evidence marshalled by the defence while giving credence to questionable evidence provided by the police — 'chipak gaya tha' (had got stuck to something else) was the police explanation for the failure of a crucial incriminating letter to figure in the list of articles seized at the time of searching Dr Sen's effects. It is not strictly relevant that Dr Sen has an extraordinary track record in the service of people and as a human rights activist. What is relevant is the obligation on the state, specifically, the courts, to ensure that justice is done not only in form, but also in substance. That would mean keeping the space for political dissent open, recognising the valid possibility of many challenges to the state being legitimate in terms of the principles of the Constitution, even if they violate the letter of the law. The point is to negotiate that space to resolve conflict, not win a war and annex that space by force.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

RING-FENCE BANKS

VIA APEX HOLDING COMPANY STRUCTURE

ONE of the many lessons of the 2008 financial crisis is about systemic risk and the importance of ringfencing banks from the misadventures of other financial sector players. Scale economics and synergies across different sectors mean financial conglomerates, with a finger in a multitude of financial businesses, are here to stay. And while that may be good from a short-term efficiency perspective, it could create problems for regulation. If troubles elsewhere impact the banks' balance sheets, it could be a recipe for disaster. Given how governments, willy-nilly, jump to the defence of banks, there is a special responsibility cast on banking regulators to ensure banks are insulated from contagion elsewhere. In this context, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is right to favour, in the ownership structure of banks and other financial service companies, a model in which an apex holding company owns the subsidiaries providing assorted financial services, including banks, over a model in which a bank has as subsidiaries those financial services companies. 

 

The apex holding company route addresses the problem of banks being dragged down by their subsidiaries. More importantly, since non-banking entities within the banking group would be directly owned by the apex holding company, and not by the bank, contagion risk is less. In contrast, in the bank subsidiary conglomerate model followed in India, all the subsidiaries are regulated by different regulators. But as the parent is a bank, the overall supervisory responsibility for the entire group including that for the subsidiaries rests with RBI. This can lead to regulatory turf wars and weaker regulation. While the proposed Financial Stability and Development Council could, perhaps, address some of these problems, that is yet unproven. Problems could get accentuated if the holding company is either unregulated or is regulated with less rigour. The apex holding company model has the added advantage that investment in subsidiaries will not be constrained by the present limit (20% of the bank's paid-up capital and reserves) on a bank's aggregate investment in subsidiaries.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

TOURISM SEZS

BRING THE WORLD HOME

WITH airports and airlines across the world dealing with recalcitrant weather phenomena from snow to fog, thousands of truculent stranded passengers should consider a new ancillary line of business: D&D (diversions and delays) hospitality. Chances are that everyone thwarted in their holiday plans of sun 'n sand or retail therapy in balmy tourist havens would gladly opt for something other than snoozing on piles of luggage in stuffy airport concourses. Some airports, like Delhi's new Terminal 3 have hotel facilities inside their periphery or buildings, but they are far too inadequate to take full advantage of the chance to rake in more cash from hassled holidaymakers. After all, no one wants leisure plans to be totally nixed by closed runways and cancelled flights. A survey could be conducted to determine Indian travellers' holiday ideas and destinations. Then hospitality groups can be coopted to recreate the needful within easy reach of our airports — much like real estate companies are ensuring that every aspirational international address is available for the EMI-enabled aam admi right here in India.

 

Building a mini Singapore, Hong Kong or Thailand complete with amusement parks and malls, Swiss chalets and ski slopes, Big Ben and Madame Tussaud's, not to mention the Sydney Opera House, the Pyramids and the Sphinx, should not be beyond the abilities of our real estate honchos — with the environment minister's permission, of course. The potential of such tourism SEZs could be enormous: they would be 'green' destinations as no airline fuel would be burnt getting there, and they would save the Indian traveller from jet lag, luggage limitations and foreign exchange hassles. Who knows, they could even earn dollars from foreign tourists diverted from their original destinations by the weather!

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EASING FDI RULES WILL ENHANCE TRADE

FURTHER LOOSENING OF INVESTMENT RULES WILL SPUR THE NEXT PHASE OF INDIA'S GROWTH BY FACILITATING GREATER ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN THE COUNTRY AND ITS INTERNATIONAL TRADING PARTNERS, SAYS SATVIK VARMA

THE year 2010 will be remembered across India for multiple reasons and notable among them is India's newly-assumed position as a key international trading partner. When the US President acknowledges India's rise as a global power and declares that India has emerged, not just in Asia, but across the world, people all around take note. In such circumstances, it was no surprise that in less than six months, we played host to Prime Minister David Cameron, President Barack Obama, President Nicolas Sarkozy, Premier Wen Jiabao and most recently President Dimitry Medvedev. One common agenda of all these visits was bilateral trade and an expectation that India further ease its FDI rules. Hence, as we approach the new year, it may perhaps be wise to once again objectively evaluate our current FDI rules to see what other changes can be introduced. 

 

Currently, all foreign investments into India are regulated by the consolidated FDI policy (policy). The consolidation, first undertaken in March 2010, pulls together in one document all previous acts, regulations, press notes, press releases and clarifications issued either by the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) or the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) where they relate to FDI into India. The consolidation exercise, a huge endeavour on the part of the DIPP, is a step in the right direction and hence deserves much appreciation. What also merits praise is the initiative of the DIPP to only make changes to the policy on a biannual basis, as opposed to the previous practice of issuing ongoing notifications. Hence, the most recent policy came into effect on October 1, 2010. 

 

Under the extant policy, investments into most sectors fall under the automatic route. Such investments require no prior permission of the government or any regulator and the Indian company receiving the foreign investment is only required to intimate the RBI of any such investment. The FDI rules applicable to such sectors are, therefore, fairly clear and unambiguous. But some sectors still require prior government approval and it is here that the rules may be accused of being somewhat complicated. What needs to be appreciated is that most sectors that require government approval fall within the 'sensitive' category and hence it is essential to balance FDI with concerns of national security. Similar restrictions also exist in some developed countries where there is a potential of national security being compromised. 

 

Hence, has the policy continuously been 'incremental and progressive', as stated by the Indian commerce minister? As a practitioner, I can unequivocally say, absolutely! In fact, one also has to agree with him that many changes have been made to the policy in 2010 itself. But still some matters seem to have missed the attention of the DIPP and require immediate remedial action. The foremost among them is the issue of 'ownership' and 'control' of an Indian company. Especially, when the Indian company has both non-resident investment and investment from a resident Indian company, and where such resident Indian company further has non-resident investment. Given that in the computation of indirect foreign investment, among other things, the investment made by FIIs and that made through ADRs and GDRs is also included, the question will arise on how will this affect investment by such resident Indian companies in sectors like telecom or banking where there is still a cap on foreign investment and ownership. Also, how would the regulators take to investments by a resident Indian company, owned and controlled by a resident Indian or an Indian company, but where the ownership and control is through a multi-layered structure and through non-resident investment participation? 

 

ANOTHER important issue requiring immediate attention of the DIPP relates to the upfront determination of price of 'capital' instruments at the time of issuance. Under the policy, the definition of capital includes fully, compulsorily and mandatorily convertible preference shares and debentures. What is now expected is that these convertible instruments must comply with the pricing guidelines (following the discounted free cash flow method) both at the time of their issuance, as also at the time of their conversion. Practically, to ensure compliance with the pricing guidelines on both sides may sometimes prove to be a challenge. It would thus be extremely helpful if the regulatory intent behind this rule is clarified and the record set straight on the compliance requirement. 

 

Before critics say that the US or any other foreign trading partner cannot dictate Indian investment policy, let us note some facts which demonstrate that it is in India's long-term economic interests to further hone the policy. The US is India's largest trading partner in goods and services, and India is now among the fastest-growing sources of FDI entering the US. On the flip side, according to data released by the DIPP, cumulative FDI flows into India in the last decade have been in excess of $175 billion. Of this, the US accounts for a staggering 7% of the total inflows, behind Mauritius that leads the table accounting for 42% of the total inflows owing to the favourable double-taxation agreement we have with this Indian Ocean Island. 

 

French President Sarkozy's visit, close on the heels of the US President's visit, also highlighted the need for India to open more of its sectors to FDI. France, which contributes to 2% of the total FDI inflows into this country, considers India as a long-term partner. It's not unreasonable for it to expect India to reciprocate meaningfully on trade ties. 

 

Under these circumstances, there is a need for greater economic cooperation between India and its international trading partners. Given the steady manner in which the commerce ministry has transformed the policy, one hopes it will take note of the need to further ease the FDI rules so that no one can accuse it of being opaque or complicated. Fortuitously, the further easing of investment rules will go a long way to help spur the next phase of India's own economic growth. 

 

(The author is an advocate and     corporate counsel based in     New Delhi. Views are personal)

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

TH RO U G H TH E TH I R D EYE

 

JINXED CMS 

BJP chief ministers are turning out to be the casualties of the party's in-house faultlines. When Nitish Kumar made it clear the BJP had to choose between Narendra Modi campaigning in Bihar and the JD(U) remaining an ally, the saffron party dumped the Gujarat chief minister from its list of campaigners. Then the party tried to cover it up by asking none of its chief ministers to campaign in Bihar so that it could say Modi's omission was only part of a decision to keep its CMs off Bihar. The BJP is now trying the same ploy after realising it can not afford to present Karnataka CM Yeddyurappa on the stage during its 'anti-corruption' rallies against UPA-2. So, the BJP had asked all its CMs not to attend its Delhi opening show. The party will also not hold its anti-corruption rally in Yeddy's Bangalore. But will the saffron party also skip all capital cities of BJP-ruled states too in order to justify it skipping the Karnataka capital? 

 

LEFT WITH A PROBLEM 

THE Left is finding itself in a piquant situation these days. It is one thing to join the BJP for a united opposition fight against the Centre inside Parliament. But it is quite another thing to do a tango with the saffron camp on the street when the Kerala and West Bengal elections are round the corner. So it has dissociated itself from the NDA show. Even if the Left wants to hold its own parallel show against the UPA, it has a problem in choosing partners and venues. None of its potential Third Front partners — Mayawati, Mulayam, Lalu, Jayalalithaa, O P Chautala or Chandrababu Naidu — can be presentable in ceremonies against corruption. As far as the venue is concerned, Left's own West Bengal has become too tricky to venture on a show of strength. Similarly, it won't be an intelligent idea to launch a crusade against corruption in Kerala under the leadership of Lavalin-hit Pinarayi Vijayan. 

 

HOME TRUTHS 

THE Kerala Youth Congress unit last week completed a unique election process to install its new office bearers. The election was held on the principle of a democratic, transparent and competitive election conceived by Team Rahul Gandhi. The striking aspect of the result was the defeat of the outgoing state YC chief M Liju who came second, and thus accepted the vice-president's post. Incidentally, Liju had become the state YC chief in 2009 by emerging as the winner of the state-wide 'talent search'. Liju was then made YC president by evicting T Siddique, a staunch loyalist of Kerala party veteran Oomman Chandy. The episode led to Chandy supporters taking to the streets briefly before accepting the inevitable. So was it a case of true democratic spirit prevailing when Liju was trounced this time by P C Vishnunath, a staunch Chandy loyalist? 

 

CENSOR'S TALE 

ACTOR Kamal Hassan is known for rows involving his movie titles or songs. A song in his latest film, Manmadan Anbuinvited protests from Hindu activists for containing 'objectionable lines'. As a sequel to this, the actor has agreed to delete those lines. A self-proclaimed atheist, Kamal, said he would have released the movie with the original song with a censor certificate if it was from his own production house. Since it is produced by Red Giant (a venture of Udayanidhi Stalin, son of TN deputy CM, M KStalin), he had to keep in mind the commercial interest of the movie. But whispers have it that it is TN CM and Stalin's father, M K Karunanidhi who asked the actor to drop the controversial lines in the song. When the CM has enough problems already on the 2G and Radia tapes front, why risk losing god-fearing Hindu votes too?

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

SEREN DI PITY

NEW YEAR BECKONS CONG TRANSITION

C L MANOJ 

HISTORICALLY, AICC plenary sessions have served as grand occasions for the Congress to formulate and showcase its future political and administrative agenda. But, last week's plenary session at Burari failed on that count. The session, by and large, chose to merely react to the present political exigency; of having to deal with the Opposition war cry against the UPA-2. 

 

Sonia Gandhi's new anti-corruption prescription, Manmohan Singh's offer to appear before the Public Accounts Committee of Parliament and the Congress attack on the BJP's moral double standards were all meant to respond to the Opposition moves. The high-pitched attack on the alleged terror links of RSS, too, was, essentially, a tactical counter-play before the secular and minority galleries besides trying to put the RSS-BJP on the backfoot and to complicate the BJP bid to unite the entire Opposition or expand the BJP-led NDA. The contents of the session's political, economic and foreign affairs resolutions too mostly stuck to the beaten track. So, what will the Burari plenary be known for? 

 

The two-day session, more than anything else, has set the atmospherics for the effective leadership in the Congress to be handed over to Rahul Gandhi even as Sonia Gandhi continues as party president. The tone and tenor of leading speakers made no secret of this expectation. Digvijaya Singh, a leading voice of Team Rahul, asserted the time has come for Mr Gandhi to bring his own team in the leadership just as Rajiv Gandhi had in mid-'80s. No wonder P Chidambaram, known more for his stiff upper lip than for a fine ear for the music of guardian angels, detected in Rahul Gandhi's speech at Burari strong strains of Rajiv Gandhi's scathing critique of the Congress its centenary session. They were, in a way, indicating expectancy/edginess among top Congress leaders in this transition phase. 

 

It will be seven years since Rahul made his political debut and four years since he became a party general secretary. Equally importantly, it is 12 years since Sonia Gandhi became party chief, checked the Congress decline and powered it back to the Raisina Hill in 2004. Having played political anchor to the Congress and the Manmohan Singh regime, it is inevitable that she and her team should now gradually make way for Mr Gandhi and his own team. It is also expected that in the upcoming reshuffle of the AICC (more than of the Union Cabinet), Mrs Gandhi could let out the semiotics of Mr Gandhi's leadership and ideas, meant to prepare the party for the next general elections via a series of important state elections. 

 

Change or the beginning of a clear transition phase in any political party affects the status quo vis-a-vis personalities and internal working style. The Congress historically has shown its willingness to play by this law of transition. And nobody knows it better that the experienced Congress veterans. Arjun Singh, nearing 80, has already announced his retirement plans. Pranab Mukherjee (75) said he would be too old to be in Rahul's team. Manmohan Singh will be crossing 80 when he completes his second innings in 2014. Shiela Dikshit, the most successful Congress chief minister of the time, is 72. There are around a dozen top Congress leaders who will be around 80 by 2014. 

 

The imminent transition also makes inevitable a generation shift in leadership. The relatively younger lot in the Sonia dispensation, mostly groomed by Rajiv Gandhi, are in the 60s and will have a minimum of 10 years career ahead. Therefore, it will be interesting to see who all among these original Rajiv team survive and consolidate or are sidelined in the Rahul team. Equally, it is important to know whether Rahul has the will to usher in a new generation of genuine young leaders from the organisational grassroots who can help him rebuild the party in states rather than merely recycling the 'hereditary turks' as Congress 'Gen Next leaders' who excel in clever networking and in little else. 

 

Mr Gandhi's team will have to address two crucial issues in a dispassionate manner; whether the party, which rules at present in just 11 states, has the genuine organisational capacity and talent on the ground to pursue an ambitious solo run in 2014 or whether it should be willing to play along with coalition politics for some more time. The key to the Congress ambition to revive its one-party rule at the Centre lies in its capacity to build a line of genuine and popular leaders in the states who can revive its rainbow constituency through imagination and hard work. 

 

Secondly, the Congress has to build further from its winner aam admi slogan which is showing distinct signs of electoral fatigue. It should come out with dynamic agenda that galvanises the fast-changing, new and young India and cuts across the caste-classreligion-urban-rural divides. To form this new agenda, Team Rahul has to make the Congress reach out and be sensitive to a large class of Indians whose aspirations run high, do not get a hearing and are pitted against bullying and lobbying cartels who want to force their entrenched gameplans as India's own agenda. That is only the beginning of the challenge for Rahul and his team.

 

The Burari session has laid the ground for the inevitable leadership change in the Congress, from Sonia to Rahul 

Only some members of the present team are likely to get key roles in Team Rahul Rahul Gandhi's challenges are internal democracy and finding an agenda that will galvanise the aam admi without making use of that worn coinage

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

CO S M I C U P LI N K

BIG PICTURE VERSUS FINE STRUCTURE

MUKUL SHARMA 

 

THE great Battle of the Scopes was being fought in the mind of the eye. The telescope talked about how with his help humankind had been able to visualise the mechanics behind the grand systems governing the universe and form a coherent image of the cosmos. After the passing of many millennia, men and women were finally able to resolve the pinpoints of light that lit up their nights into planets, stars, the Milky Way and clusters of billions and billions of galaxies spread out in the vastness of space. The telescope, said the telescope, was able to deliver the thing that mattered most in the overall scheme of things: the big picture. 

 

The microscope, on the other hand, insisted that only details were really important because one could never hope to understand how macroscopic things function without gaining awareness of their infinitesimal component parts. He maintained that without his help, people would never have learned about molecules and atoms and their elegant interactive dance that ultimately causes all matter to exist or, for that matter, been able to identify tiny organisms invisible to the naked eye which cause big diseases to happen. The microscope, said the microscope, was able to deliver the thing that mattered the most in the overall scheme of things: the fine structure. 

 

For example, take da Vinci, he continued. The man dissected cadavers to study the exact intricate anatomy of underlying muscles, tendons and bone articulation first before he painted The Last Supper — the so-called big picture, if you will. Do you think the Mona Lisa could be possible without knowing all the small things that make up her smile? On the contrary, retorted the telescope, it was only after studying the behaviour of large heavenly bodies and seeing how they were moving away from one another that scientists were able to postulate they must havebeen together at some time in the past. Do you think the finest of all your structures — the point of singularity at the big bang — could be known today without knowing how it was deduced? 

 

Seeing that they were losing sight of their goal and getting nowhere, the Mind's Eye intervened at this point. Gentlemen, it said, surely even you can see that both your scopes are limited and that actually you complement each other in the mind of the eye that gathers and completes the vision. For it is only I, said the Mind's Eye, who sees it all.

 

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                                                                                                               DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

ARMS AND THE MAN

BY SHANKAR ROYCHOWDHURY      

 

If wars can be classified as good, bad or indifferent in terms of their impact on the national psyche, then Bangladesh 1971 was a very good war for India and the Sino-Indian border war of 1962 a very bad one indeed. In 1971, all relevant factors — political, diplomatic, and above all the Indian military — meshed together perfectly to fashion a triumph of classic proportions over a traditional enemy; 1962 was just the opposite. Apart from spirited individual performances, the Army and its political guidance was like a badly synchronised gearbox that soon stripped its pinions and crashed. The Indian armed forces remember 1962 with mortification, and 1971 with triumph, which they commemorate as Vijay Diwas on the 16th of December every year. The particular confluence of circumstances, happenstance and personalities that brought both 1962 and 1971 about, are unlikely to recur. So after celebrating Vijay Diwas 2010, the 39th commemoration of "Victory in Bangladesh", it would be appropriate to reflect on how far the Indian military has traveled since the Sela Pass in 1962 and Bangladesh in 1971, and its likely future azimuth.

 

Barring the first Kashmir War of 1947, China has been a constant background presence in all Indo-Pak matters, especially during India's other wars with Pakistan. These have so far all been single-front affairs (notwithstanding Chinese expressions of solidarity for Pakistan in 1965 and 1971), but India's worst case will always be the two-front scenario — a Pakistan-China combo, with an interlinked nuclear and now a cyber and internal security dimension as well, from covert operations sponsored by the Pakistan Army through its quasi-state jihadi stable. Such externally-sponsored conflicts are unlikely to be resolved by political dialogue or socio-economic initiatives alone. They will require hard and significant military measures to establish a stable environment for negotiated conflict resolution. This has been amply proven by the Indian experience in Jammu and Kashmir.

 

The role of India's armed forces, though never officially formalised, has crystallised through prolonged deployments in wars, proxy wars, counter terrorism and counter insurgency, into the strategically defensive one of territorial, maritime and aerospace defence of the homeland. India's armed forces are well trained and highly motivated professionals, who have performed outstandingly in every assignment in war or peace, both within as well as outside the country. But their military capabilities have not been kept in pace with the operational imperatives of their role, which demand a full two-and-a-half front operational capability across the entire spectrum of warfare. By that token, their current capabilities are definitely inadequate.

 

Morale is high, but weapons and equipment are obsolescent, and in many cases severely deficient and outmoded, leaving huge gaps in the performance envelope. Each individual service has its own tale of horrors, whether night vision devices, air defence weapons or artillery for the Army, submarines for the Navy, or the fast-depleting squadron strengths in the Air Force. The major reason for the wasting disease in India's defence capabilities is the scant attention paid to indigenous defence research, development and production. The armed forces naturally require a high state of readiness at all times, but successive governments have consistently chosen the easier option of imports rather than bite the bullet and develop an indigenous defence industry.

 

A typical case in point is the impending purchase of the 126 multi-role combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force at an estimated cost of `42,000 crore, which cannot be seen in isolation from the agreement with Russia to produce the future fifth-generation fighter for the Indian Air Force as a joint venture expected to ultimately cost an estimated `1.5 lakh crore. The preliminary step was the `1,500 crore pact with Russia finalised during the recent visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to India. The two processes cannot be mutually exclusive. The proposed acquisition of 126 new Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA) is of course an urgent necessity for the Air Force, but has to be planned as a lead in series for the PAKT-50. The implications for selection of the MRCA should be obvious.

 

But even more important is the future of the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas and the Indian aerospace industry. Pakistan is co-producing the JF-17 (also an LCA) with China to induct it into the Pakistan Air Force. How confident is India, specifically the Indian Air Force, about Tejas? How does it stack up against the JF-17? The bottom line is, can the proposed MRCA acquisitions be off-set to a greater or lesser extent by producing additional Tejas? Can immediate operational requirements be balanced against long-term development of indigenous aerospace capabilities? Can Indian industrial capacity deliver?

 

Questions are endless — from small arms to main battle tanks. Why German Heckler and Koch, Israeli Tabor or even the now ubiquitous AK-47 assault rifles and not the indigenous Excalibur developed by small arms factory Ishapore? Why not the Arjun Main Battle Tank (MBT) produced at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi (near Chennai) instead of the T-90 Russian tank? And then the biggest question: If Indian military equipment is perceived by the users as unreliable, maintenance-heavy and defect-prone, what punitive accountability for this has been imposed for systemic failure in the ministry of defence, the prime government agency under whom fall the Defence Research and Development Organisation and the ordnance factory board?

 

India seems to have become addicted over theyears to a high-calorie diet of imports, taking a strange and even perverse pride in the dubious honour of ranking amongst world's top 10 importers of weapons. Do such profligate imports reflect the true state of the country's scientific and engineering capabilities? These are hard questions which need to be asked and firm answers obtained.

 

The year 2010 has not been a good year for the country. Gloom, despondency and bitter cynicism pervade the national horizon. Under these overcast skies, the story of victory in Bangladesh in 1971 told on Vijay Diwas every year needs telling and retelling, as a reminder of what the nation can achieve, should it have the will to do so.

 

- Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former Member of Parliament

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

LEARNING TO LIVE IN A FINITE WORLD

BY PAUL KRUGMAN

 

Oil is back above $90 a barrel. Copper and cotton have hit record highs. Wheat and corn prices are way up. Over all, world commodity prices have risen by a quarter in the past six months.

 

So what's the meaning of this surge?

Is it speculation run amok? Is it the result of excessive money creation, a harbinger of runaway inflation just around the corner? No and no.

What the commodity markets are telling us is that we're living in a finite world, in which the rapid growth of emerging economies is placing pressure on limited supplies of raw materials, pushing up their prices. And America is, for the most part, just a bystander in this story.

 

Some background: The last time the prices of oil and other commodities were this high, two and a half years ago, many commentators dismissed the price spike as an aberration driven by speculators. And they claimed vindication when commodity prices plunged in the second half of 2008.

 

But that price collapse coincided with a severe global recession, which led to a sharp fall in demand for raw materials. The big test would come when the world economy recovered. Would raw materials once again become expensive?

 

Well, it still feels like a recession in America. But thanks to growth in developing nations, world industrial production recently passed its previous peak — and, sure enough, commodity prices are surging again.

 

This doesn't necessarily mean that speculation played no role in 2007-2008. Nor should we reject the notion that speculation is playing some role in current prices; for example, who is that mystery investor who has bought up much of the world's copper supply? But the fact that world economic recovery has also brought a recovery in commodity prices strongly suggests that recent price fluctuations mainly reflect fundamental factors.

 

What about commodity prices as a harbinger of inflation? Many commentators on the right have been predicting for years that the Federal Reserve, by printing lots of money — it's not actually doing that, but that's the accusation — is setting us up for severe inflation. Stagflation is coming, declared Representative Paul Ryan in February 2009; Glenn Beck has been warning about imminent hyperinflation since 2008.

 

Yet inflation has remained low. What's an inflation worrier to do?

 

One response has been a proliferation of conspiracy theories, of claims that the government is suppressing the truth about rising prices. But lately many on the right have seized on rising commodity prices as proof that they were right all along, as a sign of high overall inflation just around the corner.

 

You do have to wonder what these people were thinking two years ago, when raw material prices were plunging. If the commodity-price rise of the past six months heralds runaway inflation, why didn't the 50 per cent decline in the second half of 2008 herald runaway deflation?

 

Inconsistency aside, however, the big problem with those blaming the Fed for rising commodity prices is that they're suffering from delusions of US economic grandeur. For commodity prices are set globally, and what America does just isn't that important a factor.

 

In particular, today, as in 2007-2008, the primary driving force behind rising commodity prices isn't demand from the United States. It's demand from China and other emerging economies. As more and more people in formerly poor nations are entering the global middle class, they're beginning to drive cars and eat meat, placing growing pressure on world oil and food supplies.

 

And those supplies aren't keeping pace. Conventional oil production has been flat for four years; in that sense, at least, peak oil has arrived. True, alternative sources, like oil from Canada's tar sands, have continued to grow. But these alternative sources come at relatively high cost, both monetary and environmental.

 

Also, over the past year, extreme weather — especially severe heat and drought in some important agricultural regions — played an important role in driving up food prices. And, yes, there's every reason to believe that climate change is making such weather episodes more common.

 

So what are the implications of the recent rise in commodity prices? It is, as I said, a sign that we're living in a finite world, one in which resource constraints are becoming increasingly binding. This won't bring an end to economic growth, let alone a descent into Mad Max-style collapse. It will require that we gradually change the way we live, adapting our economy and our lifestyles to the reality of more expensive resources.

 

But that's for the future. Right now, rising commodity prices are basically the result of global recovery. They have no bearing, one way or another, on US monetary policy. For this is a global story; at a fundamental level, it's not about us.

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

BLAME GAME IN WEST BENGAL

 

The Union home minister, Mr P. Chidambaram's letter to the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, strongly criticising the role of "armed CPM cadre" in fomenting violence in the state is the latest flashpoint in the already fractious political situation there. The scathing letter virtually toes the Trinamul Congress line that the Left Front government was misusing Central forces in the state. And, further provoking the Marxists, senior Congress leader and the Union finance minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, has publicly said that "jungle raj" prevails in West Bengal. Mr Mukherjee has also asked the Left Front, particularly the CPM, to reply to the home minister's letter. All this scotches rumours that the Congress may dump its ally and join hands with the Left. In fact, Mr Mukherjee's comment underscores the Trinamul's leverage in Bengal and on the national scene, and also, incidentally, gives the lie to tales about his perceived closeness to the Left. West Bengal has been known for political violence, particularly during Assembly elections. Apart from the "scientific rigging" mastered by the Marxists, muscle power is also used. But the Assembly polls in the state might witness unprecedented violence because of the huge stakes involved. With the wind blowing against the Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee government, the CPM might not shy away from utilising all possible options to stay in power. Rival parties are unlikely to take this lying down. The killings have already started along with trading of charges. The "formal" warning by Mr Chidambaram and the "political" warning by Mr Mukherjee should be seen in this context. The Centre is mounting pressure on the CM to rein in the armed cadres of the CPM so that the Trinamul does not suffer much in the electoral battle. Of course, the Marxists and the state government have consistently denied the existence of such forces. Alongside, the Maoists have also started attacks on their enemies. With this, the political battle for the heart of West Bengal has metamorphosed into violent clashes in the streets and on campuses. Both the Trinamul and CPM say campus violence has claimed nearly 20 lives so far. Mr Chidambaram's letter clearly states that CPM-backed goons have been attacking Opposition supporters and warns that this cannot continue in a democracy. Even after he penned his missive, a Trinamul worker was shot dead in West Midnapore. The Opposition in West Bengal has been insisting, loudly, that CPM-backed thugs have been attacking their supporters in many places, including in trouble-torn Lalgarh. The home minister's letter mentions that 96 Trinamul, 65 CPM and 15 Congress supporters have been killed in political violence. A few days ago, economist Amartya Sen also expressed concern at the escalating political violence in West Bengal. The scenario is fast becoming similar to the bloody Seventies. With a highly politicised and emasculated police force, there are no hopes that violence will be quelled soon. Caught in the middle are the bewildered voters.

 

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

DEAR 2011, WILL YOU BRING JUSTICE?

BY JAYATI GHOSH

 

It's been a frenetic year, closing a volatile decade in which the rapidity of economic and social change in some areas has been almost as remarkable as the continuing stagnation and decline in others. So how do we interpret this and what can we wish for in future?

 

Right now there is a resurgence of economic triumphalism among Indian elites. On the face of it, the Indian economy has withstood the global crisis to maintain respectable rates of output growth. Consumer demand is buoyant, especially for goods and services consumed by the burgeoning middle class. So most private investors, both local and foreign, are incredibly bullish about future prospects.

 

But there are no significant improvements in the indicators that matter for most people, like stable employment, better livelihoods, reduced hunger and more basic human development. Rather, changes in finance and other economic deregulation led to large capital inflows and sparked a retail credit boom. These combined with fiscal concessions to spur consumption among the richer sections of the population. Meanwhile, large parts of the country continued to languish in dreadful conditions.

 

This is not a particularly stable economic trajectory since credit bubbles have to burst some time and growth episodes based on volatile capital inflows have usually ended in tears. In fact, agriculture and balance of payments, as well as social and political instability, are already re-emerging as potential constraints to this pattern of growth. The problems in agriculture continue to fester: the latest figures suggest more farmers' suicides in 2009 than in any previous year, even as the numbers shrink of those who call themselves farmers.

 

Because economic growth has not generated enough productive jobs, the bulk of the work force is in very fragile and precarious forms of self-employment. Wages have barely risen as profits have exploded, and people have been displaced for projects that bring no improvement to their own lives. All this leads to a growing number of disaffected youth whose frustrations make them more prone to violent or socially undesirable behaviour.

 

So it's not surprising that there is increased receptivity of local people in depressed areas to "extremist activity" designed to overthrow an economic system that is seen to be completely unjust.

 

So the first big item on my policy wish list is for a major shift in the direction of economic policy: away from seeing gross domestic product (GDP) expansion as an end in itself whatever the costs and welfare outcomes, and towards wage-led growth based on improved conditions for the ordinary citizen. This means more public spending on the basic goods and services that should be obvious features of civilised society: producing and distributing enough food for everyone; ensuring universal access to good quality health, sanitation and education services; fairly obvious features like all-weather roads to all habitations and electricity for every home. A fairly modest ambition, you might think, until you are told by our policymakers that our country cannot afford it, despite its pretensions to global power status.

 

Of course there are many other features of economic justice that we could think of, but it turns out that now we have to worry even about basic legal justice. The year 2010 has been full of assaults on India's democracy and on its very impressive Constitution. Ironically, most of these assaults have come not from external enemies of the country but from within, and indeed from the very quarters that should be expected to uphold the Constitution.

 

This is only partly about abuse of power and privilege in the corridors (and anterooms) of power and the growing evidence of corrupt behaviour even at the highest levels. The year ended with the most dispiriting news from judiciary as well, when a court in Chhattisgarh found a well-known and highly respected doctor and human rights activist guilty of sedition, on the basis of the most flimsy and dubious circumstantial evidence, and sentenced him to rigorous life imprisonment.

 

The case against Dr Binayak Sen, who had already been held in prison for two years until the Supreme Court intervened, is highly questionable at best. But the judgment of the lower court is appalling not just because it appears to bend to the problematic political pressures of the state government and its police force, which apparently wishes to intimidate any dissenters. Even if its argument about the extent of Dr Sen's involvement (carrying letters and so on) with "extremist elements" were to be accepted, this judgment actually flies in the face of the Supreme Court's own stated position on what constitutes sedition.

 

In a famous judgment of 1962 (Kedarnath Singh vs State of Bihar) the Supreme Court held that the offence of "sedition" in the Indian Penal Code must be interpreted in a manner consistent with the fundamental freedom of speech and expression guaranteed by the Indian Constitution.

 

Spreading "disaffection against the state" is not enough: there must be direct incitement to violence or actions that will lead to serious public disorder, and any speech or deed milder than this should not be considered seditious.

 

Instead, this extreme and underserved punishment is meted out to someone who in a more enlightened society would be celebrated as a positive role model because of his concern for the poor and downtrodden, while actual criminals roam about unfettered. On what basis can we now argue with those who believe that violent protest is justified because the administrative and judicial systems are so skewed and biased that it is impossible to expect genuine justice? And should we be surprised if such judgments actually add to the extremist activity that is seen as such a threat to the established order?

 

So my second wish is for a judicial system that works quickly and effectively to uphold the Constitution, to ensure the rights of all citizens and to deliver genuine justice even to those without access to wealth and power.

 

Is it scary that these two simple wishes seem to be so wildly optimistic and even improbable in India at the turn of the decade?

 

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

WEAK FOUNDATION

DR SEN'S CONVICTION RAISES QUESTIONS

 

THE judgment delivered by Mr BP Verma, second Additional District and Sessions Judge, Raipur, holding Dr Binayak Sen, Narayan Sanyal and Pijush Guha guilty of sedition will doubtless be scrutinized by a higher judicial forum. The three men, sentenced to rigorous life imprisonment, have said they plan to appeal their conviction and, quite apart from the fact that every convicted person, unless destitute, does appeal a severe jail term, a study of the judgment would explain why they might find it necessary to do so. Essentially, the prosecution's case is that Sanyal was a member of the CPI (Maoist), a banned organization, and was involved in seditious activities. The case against Guha, a Kolkata businessman, is that some magazines of the banned organization were seized from him, leading to his arrest. The charge against all three ~ which adds up to the seditious conspiracy ~ is that Sanyal, while in jail, handed over letters addressed to his party colleagues to Dr Sen, who was assisting with his medical treatment. Dr Sen is accused of having passed these letters on to Guha who, in turn, passed them to Maoists in the jail.

 

Any fair analysis of Mr Verma's 92-page judgment would suggest that the judge appeared to accept everything the prosecution contended, and rejected almost everything that the accused said in their defence. It would seem the judge overlooked even inconsistencies in the State's assertions made before different judicial forums ~ for instance, the Chhattisgarh Police told the Supreme Court that Guha was arrested from a hotel. But police told Judge Verma that Guha was arrested from the street, and said they had made a typographical error in their submission to the apex court. Dr. Sen's conviction hinges essentially on three contentions – that he introduced Sanyal to the owner of a house as a potential tenant, that he met Sanyal 33 times in jail and that he had close relations with two persons the police allege were hardcore Maoists. However, the judge ignored the defence contention that the landlord's statement was obtained under duress because the police was in a position to implicate him in the arrest of another Maoist from his house. Dr. Sen produced evidence to show that his visits to Sanyal were in his capacity as a human rights activist and a physician, and after taking permission from the Senior Superintendent of Police. The visits, he contended, were carried out in the presence of jail officials. It would not be unreasonable for us to ask that if these acts were seditious, why were not the officials who facilitated the visits and were present when the alleged transfer of letters took place also charged?
We are driven to the conclusion that it is a fragile country which convicts citizens for possession of allegedly seditious literature, or imprisons for life rights activists for passing on letters. Even if every fact cited by the prosecution were true, and every assertion made by the defence devoid of merit, this judgment would arouse unfavourable comment. Democracy can't rest on such weak foundations.

 

HOPE IN THE HILLS

CONSENSUS ON POLL A WELCOME STEP FORWARD

WHATEVER the reason for the shift in the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha's strategy that has paved the way for elections, it is a welcome step towards forming an interim authority that will hopefully usher in an era of peace. This is what the morcha's rivals have been demanding. It had also been the main contention of the state government in the five rounds of tripartite talks held so far in Delhi. Elections would seem to be the best guarantee that the municipal and panchayat administrations in Darjeeling will not be monopolised by a single party or, as is more likely, by an individual heading the dominant outfit. If democratic institutions have survived elsewhere in the state, there is no reason why the dark memories of the Ghisingh era should make it difficult for the same traditions to prevail in the hills. It is a different matter that Bimal Gurung, during his latest talks with the Union home minister, has been convinced that his demand for a nominated interim council is wholly impractical in the sense that it is not the answer to the restless climate. A continued stalemate would also work against the morcha which has led the people to believe that it can extract concessions from the Centre. The only alternative was to agree that elections be fought on the basis of organisational strength, as Gurung may have sensed that on this basis he had the upper hand.

More important is whether hill parties have conceded that the first priority is to get the local administration to function effectively rather than to insist on additional areas in the plains ~ an issue that has become highly contentious. The Hill Council run by the Gorkha National Liberation Front had disgraced itself with the misuse of Central funds. While the Centre may have pledged an adequate flow of funds, the expectations are that they will see results on  ground. Hill leaders cannot escape basic responsibilities by harping on extraneous issues like the transfer of departments which are currently under Writers' Buildings. The interim council formed on the basis of elections needs to provide essentials, not raise false hopes. 

 

UP IN THE AIR

BEIJING STRUGGLES WITH A SMOKING BAN

THE decision of Beijing's local authorities to put in place a ban on smoking in indoor public places, workplaces and public transportation by 2015 might seem to some to be a somewhat laboured effort to keep up with the rest of the world. The ban was announced first in 2008 ~ at the time of the Olympics ~ but hasn't been successfully implemented, which might seem a little strange to observers of a regime that is used to getting its way. In effect, the ban wasn't successful because it was never implemented very seriously. And by saying that they would take until 2015 to bring it into force, Beijing's health authorities would appear to be conceding that the implementation wouldn't be as easy as making an announcement and allowing things to fall into place.
Bans of this sort become difficult to implement when authorities do not leave enough space for those indulging in a habit that isn't outlawed. Every country in the world ~ with the possible exception of Bhutan ~ is quick enough to mop up revenues from sale of tobacco, and hence unwilling to enforce an outright ban on sale and consumption. Having made their money, governments are notoriously laid back about creating spaces where the smoker may indulge in a manner he causes no harm to the non-smoker. Every major airport in India, for instance, has at least one shop selling cigarettes.

Yet many do not have smoking rooms, Kolkata being a prime example. This forces people to lurk in toilets or in other far from salubrious corners in order to light up. They inflict their addiction on the non-smoker and make a mockery of the ban. Until such time sale of tobacco is banned, there is need to create spaces, small spaces, where smoking is permitted; this is the key to a successful ban. This is possibly the reason why Singapore, among the first countries in Asia to clamp down on smoking and certainly the most aggressive with implementation, is today a place where the smoker knows he has a place and seeks it. Beijing, and many other places, could learn from this.

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THE STATESMAN

ARTICLE

EAST MEETS WEST~II

TIME TO UPHOLD THE SANCTITY OF THE POET'S DREAM

MOHIT CHAKRABARTI

 

With the march of time and the compulsions of a rapidly changing world, Visva-Bharati has denuded some of its finer facets of growth and development. The soul of  the university has been destroyed. It is no longer a university where the language of the mind and the heart is best expressed in her own incomparable and unparalleled ambience of the vast open arena, the star studded sky, the moonlit night, the thrilling study of the language of silence in and around or the song of the crickets amidst the loneliness. Such features are now totally extinct. It is a lost paradise.

A "symphony of response between life and world" that ensures creativity, critical and reflective thinking is one of the most vital components of education that Tagore had  introduced in Visva-Bharati. The school, in his perception, is nothing but an endearing and living embodiment of sympathy, love, freedom and joy. What, then, is the essential role of an institution? To quote Tagore: "The primary objective of an institution should not be to educate one's limbs and mind to be in efficient readiness for all emergencies, but to be in perfect tune in the symphony of response between life and the world, to find the balance of the harmony which is wisdom. The first important lesson for children in such a place would be that of improvisation, the constant imposition of the readymade having been banished from here. It is to give occasions to explore one's capacity through surprises of achievement. I must make it plain that this means a lesson not in simple life, but in creative life." ("The Teacher", The Religion of Man, George Allen & Unwin, London, 1953, pp 178-179). In addition to "having", living, loving and being are the finer strands of the poet's dream now almost lost in the midst of pseudo-modernism.

Visva-Bharati is the only university whose identity is ever glorified in the great sayings of the Upanishad ~ Anandarupamamritam yadvibhati and Yatra visvam bhavatyekanidam (Where the world makes its home in a single nest?)

It is time now to uphold the sanctity of the poet's dream. The creative and aesthetic world of Visva-Bharati ought to be revived by those who believe in Tagore's philosophy of life and education. In his words: "The educational institution, therefore, which I have in mind has primarily for its object the constant pursuit of truth, from which the imparting of truth naturally follows. It must not be a dead cage in which living minds are fed with food artificially prepared. It should be an open house, in which students and teachers are at one. They must live their complete life together, dominated by a common aspiration for truth and a need for sharing all the delights of culture. In former days the great master craftsmen had students in their workshops where they cooperated in shaping things to perfection. That was the place where knowledge could become living ~ that knowledge which not only has its substance and law, but its atmosphere subtly informed by a creative personality. For intellectual knowledge also has its aspect of creative art, in which the man who explores truth expresses something which is human in him ~ his enthusiasm, his courage, his sacrifice, his honesty, and his skill. In merely academical teaching we find subjects, but not the man who pursues the subjects; therefore, the vital part of education remains incomplete." (An Eastern University: Creative Unity, Macmillan & Company Limited, London, 1962, pp 186-187.)

 

Is the present ambience at Visva-Bharati conducive for the children to enjoy "the freshness of their feeling for Nature, a sensitiveness of soul in their relationship with their human surroundings like gaining an instrument in truth by bringing out its music"? Perhaps, their inner desires run counter to the morning chant ~ Baitalik. She is our own, the darling of our hearts, our Santiniketan./ Our dreams are rocked in her arms./ Her face is a fresh wonder of love every time we see her,/ For she is our own, the darling of our hearts./ In the shadows of her trees we meet,/ In the freedom of her open sky./ Her mornings come and her evenings/ Bring down heaven's kisses,/ Making us feel anew that she is our own, the darling of our hearts.

The poet's dream of education for the advancement of learning and excellence is yet to be translated in terms of comprehensive education. Perhaps Tagore had anticipated the crisis. As the poet wrote in his essay, Ashramer Siksha: "The education of the Ashrama is to live in fullness. One can ascend the highest peak of the first class in the examination even with a dead mind. We are regularly accustomed to this fact in our country. It is seen that the very good students of the college secure titles of honour but never secure the world. From the very beginning, I had the resolution that the boys of the Ashrama would remain curious of having immediate relations all around. They will seek, examine and collect. Here the teachers whose visions spread beyond the horizon of books would assimilate". (Siksha, Visva-Bharati, 1973).

What is more painful is that the aim of Siksha-Satra, the "Poet's School", as Tagore had named it, has not been realised partly because of its present curriculum. "The aim of Siksha-Satra is, through experience in dealing with the over-flowing abundance of child life, its charm and simplicity, to provide the utmost liberty, within the surroundings that are filled with the creative possibilities with opportunities for the joy of play ~ the reaping of succession of novel experience, to give the child freedom of growth which the young tree demands for its tender shoot, that field for self-expression in which all young life finds both training and experience." (The Visva-Bharati Bulletin, Visva-Bharati, 1928, No 9).

Ironically, one might recall the invaluable contribution of Leonard K Elmhirst to Visva-Bharati. Referring to the activities of Siksha-Satra, he wrote: "Records are kept and reports and accounts are written up, revised and corrected giving scope for literary training in its most interesting form. Geology becomes the fertility of the plot; chemistry the use of lime and manures of all kinds of spray and disinfectants; physics the use of tools, pumps, the study of water-lift and oil engines, entomology the control of plant pests (ants, caterpillars, beetles) and diseases (leaf curl, wilt, bacterial attacks); ornithology, the study of birds in their relation first to the garden plot and to the world in general." (Rabindranath Tagore: Pioneer in Education, John Murry, London, 1961, pp 73-74).

Keen intelligence, kindliness of heart, culture and distinguished manners ~ all these form the finer essence of the poet's dream. Are we ready to fulfil and disseminate that dream?  It might be useful to recall the poet's words. "The expressive side of Santiniketan ashram, that alone is mine. It has no doubt its executive side, there are experts to look after that. What I had wished for was to give vent to the human hunger for form, for self-expression. I had looked for a forest retreat, tapovan, as its proper ambience. Not in the midst of sordid city-built houses, but under the blue canopy, from morn to eve I had longed to be a playmate of these boys and girls. I have had, naturally, to introduce other utilitarian activities as well. But you will not find me in these. I am where life is trying to express itself. 

The classes that I have started or taught here are secondary. My real work has been to awaken, in Nature's vast playground, the tender grace of childhood, its budding effort, the first rays of knowledge falling across its horizon. Otherwise I would have been swamped by the trivia of routine, statute and syllabus." 

 (Concluded) 

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THE STATESMAN

VOICES OF THE NEW GENERATION

 

The Security Council heard the voices of young people from around the world in an open debate in New York on the most vital challenges facing their generation on issues such as terrorism, climate change, poverty and conflict. Over 150 New York City school students and other young people from around the world took part this week in the event, entitled "Your World, Your Future: Voices of a New Generation," which sought to bring the voices of youth who make up half of the global population directly to the council.

"You have a stake in our debates every day, but today you and your generation will have a voice as well," said US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, current president of the Council who let organised the event. "This type of informal meeting is not what we usually do, but in my opinion, it's one of the most important events this month," she added. Young people around the world between the ages of 13 and 21 were invited to tell the council, through video and written submissions, about the most vital challenges to peace and security facing their generation. Some 1,000 young people from 90 countries took up the challenge, US mission said in a press release.

A 17-year-old girl from Venezuela encouraged world leaders to "exchange a weapon for a smile". A young girl from eastern DRC appealed to leaders to help "bring back durable peace to our country". A young man from Tunisia described terrorism as the most serious threat to international peace and security today.
"The message these young people send us today is very simple and direct.  Act. Deliver. Match words with deeds," noted Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who also addressed the event. "We have no shortage of crises before us. The Security Council must deliver – now. Not in some far-off future."

Mr Ban, who grew up in South Korea, said he felt very strongly that he could have been one of them, after listening to the voices of the young people. "I, too, grew up in war. I, too, saw my village destroyed," he told. "The United Nations helped rebuild my country. It shaped my life. It defined who I am. For my generation, the United Nations was a beacon of hope. It should be for this new generation as well."

The UN had proclaimed the International Year of Youth on 12 August 2010 in an effort to harness the energy, imagination and initiative of the world's youth in overcoming the challenges from enhancing peace to boosting economic development. The General Assembly called on governments, civil society, individuals and communities worldwide to support activities at local and international levels to mark the event.

Myanmar cyclone: According to a new UN assessment, local communities in Myanmar have shown remarkable resilience in coping with the destruction caused by Cyclone Giri which killed 45 people and affected 260,000 two months ago. Substantial food and emergency shelters were distributed.

"Humanitarian emergency assistance is forthcoming, and people are slowly starting to rebuild their communities with what little they have left and the aid they are receiving," UN resident coordinator Bishow Parajuli told international donors on his visit to Yangon. He visited several villages in Rakhine state to see relief and recovery efforts.

According to a release, the humanitarian community in Myanmar needs funding. He said that only $20.5 million of the estimated $57 million required for both emergency and early recovery phases have so far been allocated by donors. "People are in dire need of more permanent shelter structures and livelihood support," he said.

He called their resilience remarkable. "The destruction in these villages has been massive. Up to 70 to 80 per cent of all houses were completely destroyed and schools and health facilities are severely damaged."
According to government estimates, 20,000 houses were completely destroyed, leaving over 100,000 people homeless, and 56 per cent of schools have collapsed or have been damaged. Some 17,500 acres of agricultural land and nearly 50,000 acres of agricultural ponds were also destroyed.

Ecosystems: The General Assembly has approved a new international body to reverse the unprecedented loss of species and ecosystems vital to life on Earth due to human activity.
In a resolution adopted by consensus, the world body called on the UNEP to take necessary steps to set up the Inter-governmental Science Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. "IPBES represents a major breakthrough in terms of organizing a global response to the loss of living organisms and forests, freshwaters, coral reefs and other ecosystems that underpin all life, including economic life, on Earth," UNEP executive director Achim Steiner said.

It caps 2010 as the International Year of Biodiversity to raise awareness and generate public pressure for action by global leaders on the vital link between biodiversity, ecosystems and survival, based on the premise that the world's diverse ecosystems purify the air and water that are the basis of life, stabilize and moderate the Earth's climate, renew soil fertility and pollinate plants.

As to the economic costs, the UN-backed Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity study last year estimated a loss of natural capital due to deforestation and degradation at between $2 trillion and $4.5 trillion every year "a staggering economic cost of taking nature for granted." It said an annual $45 billion investment in protected areas alone could secure delivery of ecosystem services worth some $5 trillion a year.

Children's rights: The UN forum in Morocco has adopted  a declaration which has called for further action to safeguard children in the Arab world and their rights, including measures to protect them from violence and to end child labour and early marriage.

The Marrakesh Declaration also called for better data on issues related to the protection of children from violence, exploitation and abuse, according to a news release issued by Unicef at the fourth high-level Arab Conference on Children's Rights.

 

"Across the countries in the region, important achievements have been made with respect to several MDGs  including significant reduction in both infant and child mortality and high rates of enrolment and gender parity in primary education," said Shahida Azfar, Unicef acting regional director for the Middle East and North Africa. "However, these gains conceal widening gaps between the richest and poorest children, which requires prioritizing the delivery of interventions to children who are the most deprived, who suffer the greatest discrimination and who fall further outside existing safety nets."

According to Unicef, countries in the Middle East and North Africa continue to be plagued by violence against children. Some 89 per cent of children in the region are subject to physical or psychological punishment, and 3.5 million women aged between 20 and 24 were married before they turned 18. In addition, female genital mutilation affects 96 per cent of women in Egypt, 93 per cent in Djibouti and 89 per cent in Sudan.

anjali Sharma

 

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THE STATESMAN

100 years ago today

Tollygunge horse show 

A successful function 

(By Our Special Commissioner) 

The Tollygunge Horse Show has now reached its 16th anniversary and from small beginnings has gradually gone forward  till today it is one of the best shows of its kind in India. It was originally intended to make this a horse, cattle, poultry, and dog show, but for some reason or other it was not found possible to work all these various things in together  and to do the necessary judging all in one day, and so everything excepting the Horse Show has been deleted. Even so, I think that things are a bit rushed through in one day. It would be far better if the show were fixed for some other time than the Christmas week and more time devoted to it. A two-days' show would mean comfort as opposed to what is now the case. This year also a very awkward date was chosen, as the day before the Viceroy's Cup is always a busy one and most people whom the Horse Show interests are racing people and would therefore naturally like to have the time to themselves in Calcutta. It would have been far better to have had this show earlier in the year, say before the opening of the Calcutta first meeting, or even before the first of the Extras. The programme this year was somewhat differently arranged and one of two classes which last year did not fill have been cut out, notably those for the Remounts. This, I personally think, is a pity, although it is realised that the Stewards have had to cut their coat according to the material available, and last year certainly the response made in the entries was not encouraging . There is also a further difficulty about the exhibition of remounts. Most of these horses are unbroken and thee is no inconsiderable risk attached to sending them through traffic to the Tollygunge Club from the Remount Depot, at Garden Reach. A suggestion that this class should be judged at the Remount Depot was not quite practicable, as the public would get no show for the money that they spend.

 

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THE STATESMAN

A LONG HISTORY OF INDEBTEDNESS

 

West Bengal's bankrupt situation has been exposed and state finance minister Asim Dasgupta cannot hide it any longer. This has resulted in a hue and cry from the opposition. But the financial crisis in the form of growing indebtedness began virtually when the first Left Front government assumed  power in 1977. It inherited a surplus fund of Rs 200 crore from the Congress government but turned it into a fiscal deficit or indebtedness of Rs 8,857 crore by 1991. It rose to Rs 1,46,563 crore by 2004 and has reached the staggering figure of nearly Rs 2,00,000 crore implying a per capita debt burden of Rs 22,000 if the state's population is taken to be nine crore.
Mr Dasgupta introduced attractive terms like alternative planning and zero deficit budget to divert the people's attention from the reality since the beginning of 1990. The biggest lie that has been  preached is that the state's GDP (income) growth exceeds  that of the country as a whole. It means the state's income growth has been spectacular. But he has never explained why the impressive income growth cannot raise the tax effort and employment level. Instead he is trying to make states' revenue position more uncertain by introducing a uniform tax on goods and services (TGS). 

 

Mr Dasgupta's claim on West Bengal's income growth is based on data provided by BAES, a state organisation under his own department. But these are not matched by national estimates. Since 1991, all-India surveys have placed West Bengal among middle income states along with Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Even here, West Bengal recorded the minimum income growth. For example, in 1991 and 1996, while income grew in the said mid-income states by average rates of 11.5 per cent and 11.6 per cent, the respective rates were 7.4 per cent and 6.6 per cent for West Bengal. In those two years, similar growth rates for all types of states were 11.2 per cent and 10.6 per cent. (EPW, 30 October, 1999). If Mr Dasgupta had been serious then, the situation would have been much better today. Instead, he took to jugglery with figures to make the state annual budget as attractive as possible amidst clapping by ruling party MLAs. Negligence of agriculture when land reform and agricultural development were considered synonymous and destructive trade unionism by Citu caused the situation to go out of control. As a result, the India Today survey, among 29 states for the period 2006-10, has ranked West Bengal 16th with a GDP growth rate of 7.6 per cent when the same at the national level was 8.2 per cent. (India Today, 29 November, 2010)

Low income growth has caused low tax effort (tax to income ratio). The state's own tax effort was at a low level of 6.8 per cent in 1990-91 which further declined to 5.07 per cent in 1999-2000. Mr Dasgupta, being the planning minister, never tried to improve the situation. Rather he has bargained with the Centre to raise the state's plan allocations each year but only to refund the Centre's matching grants following the state's inability to provide the money needed. So the situation has deteriorated over time as the latest RBI estimate has put the state's tax effort at 4.4 per cent to be the minimum among the 17 non-special category states. Hence not a single all-India study has vindicated Mr Dasgupta's claims.

 

Low income, low tax collection and deindustrialization all have intensified unemployment and poverty in West Bengal. The state's unemployment figure has reached 77 lakh in 2006 compared to 12 lakh in 1977 making an average increase by more than two lakh a year. In the next three years, jobs available amounted to 8,200; 4,800 and 3,400 respectively although the Economic Review of the state government puts the unemployment figure at 63 lakh which is hardly believable. The figure is likely to exceed one crore as, in the decade following 1993-94, the unemployment rate increased in the state from 10 to 15 per cent when it was only from 6 to 7.3 per cent at the national level. West Bengal ranked second, after Kerala, in respect of such increase with 4.9 per cent.
It is notable that during that time the unemployment rate declined in states like Haryana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh while it was within one per cent in some other states. Mr Dasgupta's claim that unemployment has similarly increased in all states is false. But has he really any answer to (1) why West Bengal accounts for 17 per cent of the country's total unemployment, (2) why the state accounts for 11 per cent or the maximum of country's educated unemployment whose figure exceeds 35 lakh; and (3) why the state, unlike the leading ones, has more of rural (26.6 per cent) than urban unemployment (24.0 per cent) when the figures were 11 per cent and 16.6 per cent countrywide. (NSSO Report, 2006)

Huge rural unemployment has caused massive poverty in West Bengal. According to the latest official estimate for 2004-05, the state's rural poverty (28.6 per cent) is larger than the all -India level (28.3 per cent). Unofficial estimates have put West Bengal's figure at around 40 per cent. West Bengal's combined poverty ratio is at 24.7 per cent indicating that, officially, one out of every four persons here is poor. The state ranks 10th in rural poverty and 11th in combined poverty among all the 35 states and UTs in the country. (Planning Commission Expert Group Report, 2008; NSSO Report)

Since Mr Dasgupta is both finance and planning minister, he cannot escape the responsibility for both of development and revenue mismanagement. The financial crisis which began to intensify two decades ago has been the root cause. In 1995-96, the revenue deficit was 52 per cent which grew to 72.9 per cent in 2006-07 which was only lower than Chattishgarh, Haryana and Orissa. The ratio further rose to 78.05 per cent in 2009-10 when it was only 16.19 per cent for all the states taken together. On the other hand, the revenue collection in respect of West Bengal's GDP was only 11.9 per cent in 2008-09 which was the minimum among the 17 non-special category states barring Gujarat. 

The state has witnessed low revenue collection against a substantial rise in administrative  expenditure, including salary, mostly to strengthen party organisations. In the 2005-08 period, the revenue collection as a proportion of GDP was 10 per cent when revenue expenditure was 13 per cent. At the same time, development expenditure as a proportion of GDP was 6.2 per cent or the minimum among the states. Besides, non-development expenditure as part of total expenditure was much higher at 43.6 per cent accompanied by an interest liability of 31.8 per cent. 

West Bengal, once a prosperous state, has been made to move to the brink of underdevelopment and bankruptcy. But the party has prospered at the expense of the state.

 

The writer is associate professor of economics, Durgapur Government College

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

REAL CHARGE         

 

If people can be convicted of sedition for having sympathies, can George Orwell's 1984 be far behind? The sentence of life imprisonment passed on the doctor and activist, Binayak Sen, by a court in Chhattisgarh is so wildly improbable that it reduces all response to absurdity. The doctor has been accused of sympathy for the Maoists, which, in his case, is just a feeling — if the prosecution is to be taken seriously — because he has not gone around blowing up bridges and murdering people. If feelings and opinions are to be brought to the dock in a declared democracy then India should own up to being a very different kind of State than it pretends to be. Some of the evidence of Mr Sen's feelings comprise journals, letters and compact discs allegedly found in his house. India is in a sorry muddle if it finds sedition lurking in journals that are not banned, newspaper cuttings referring to Naxalite activity, or CDs recording investigations by the People's Union for Civil Liberties, of which Mr Sen is an office-bearer. The court — and the police — have focused on three letters that the doctor had allegedly passed on to Piyush Guha from the jailed Naxalite leader, Narayan Sanyal. Mr Sen had visited him under strict supervision to treat him. So, to take the prosecution seriously, the doctor could be guilty of being a courier.

 

As if condemning a man for Maoist sympathies that he might be carrying in his heart were not enough, it can also be asked whether couriers are given life sentences in this country. Precedents, which Indians so look up to, say exactly the opposite: a year at most, perhaps. And sedition is usually judged by its effects: even triumphal slogans about Khalistan did not merit imprisonment after Indira Gandhi's assassination because no one responded to them. But with Binayak Sen it is urgent to stifle the defence: that the doctor has publicly declared his lack of sympathy for killers and asked both the State and the extremists to come to a political solution, or that the police are making a sorry mess of proving that they have not planted evidence on either Mr Sen or Mr Guha, that a passer-by is being produced as star witness, that Mr Sen met Mr Sanyal only under supervision in prison. Is the real charge against the doctor that he helped expose fake encounters and abuses by the Salwa Judum and continues to fight against such injustice? It now seems possible that the State views this as sedition. If so, to what extent is the court the 'arm' of the State?

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

EDITORIAL

NEW START

 

A world without nuclear arms is too much to hope for. But the president of the United States of America, Barack Obama, is known for his "audacity of hope". And with the recent ratification of the New Start nuclear treaty in the US Senate, Mr Obama's audacious wager with fate seems to have paid off surprisingly well. For not only was the long-deferred treaty passed in the Senate, as many as 13 Republican senators defected to vote in Mr Obama's favour. Given the overall scale of the victory (71-26), it is perhaps prudent to consider its political implications first. Coming on the heels of the massive drubbing that the Democrats got in the midterm elections, this triumph should revive the drooping morale of the party. Moreover, shortly before the treaty was approved in the Senate, Mr Obama managed to repeal the discriminatory 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy, which had so long banned openly gay personnel from serving in the US army. Neither of these was a mean feat for a president whose popularity ratings have been plunging over the last few months. Mr Obama's political fortunes seem to be looking up at last, although it may be premature to read in his achievements any lasting sign of Democratic resurgence.

 

At a more practical level, the treaty seeks to reduce the strategic nuclear warheads of both the US and Russia, bringing the current ceiling of 2,200 down to 1,550. A revised system of monitoring and verification is also expected to come into effect. It would be a major breakthrough for Mr Obama's foreign policy if Russia agrees to the treaty as well, though it would do so only after studying the terms and conditions set by the Senate. A joint pledge to reduce nuclear warheads by two of the world's superpowers should act as a deterrent for Iran, whose clandestine uranium enrichment programme remains mysteriously opaque to this day. However, it is worth pondering if the solidarity shown by the Republicans truly reflects a principled opposition to nuclear weapons or if it was merely a show of good form under circumstances where the US had nothing to lose. As a Republican senator, who defected to vote for Mr Obama, chillingly reasoned, even with the proposed cuts, both the US and Russia would have enough nuclear arsenal to "blow any attacker to kingdom come".

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPINION

SOCIALISTS STRIKE BACK

COMPETITION IN THE CAPITAL MARKET IS ESSENTIAL FOR GROWTH

WRITING ON THE WALL - ASHOK V. DESAI

 

I have been caught in a storm. I have had more invitations to speak in the last week than in the three months before. I have been feted. It has left me a bit shaken, for I am not used to being admired. I more often enrage people. So, thankfully, have I done this time too, including friends I value. That gives me hope that I may be right. I should make an attempt to persuade them; if that requires boring sobriety, so be it.

 

The Securities and Exchange Board of India's committee to examine issues arising from the ownership and governance of market infrastructure institutions is concerned with the prevention of contagion and instability in financial institutions and markets which can impact the rest of the economy; presumably it was appointed because Sebi got worried about the contagion and instability in the Western economies in 2008 and 2009. It deals with stock exchanges, clearing corporations and depositories; I shall ignore the latter two because they are subsidiary to stock exchanges. Every stock exchange must be wedded to a single clearing corporation to ensure integrity of transactions on it. Share transfer, however, does not have to be instantaneous; so there is no necessary connection between exchanges and depositories.

 

Ours is a British-type government. It gets legislation approved by Parliament which gives it power to make rules. It has used this power copiously in respect of the capital market. The committee refers in particular to the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules, 1957, Securities Contracts (Manner of Increasing and Maintaining Public Shareholding in Recognised Stock Exchanges) Rules, 2006 (abbreviated as MIMPS), and some rules that are being redrafted. Just what they are is unclear; the committee's footnotes are vague and source notes are perfunctory (and refer only to literature that supports the committee's view). But it seems that the government is thinking of making big changes in the control of stock exchanges; this committee was an instrument in the exercise.

 

MIMPS ordains dispersal of shareholding in stock exchanges as follows. Traders on a stock exchange must always be in a minority amongst shareholders; they cannot together own more than 49 per cent. Within this limit, a single foreign institution can own 26 per cent at most (but none has been allowed to do so). A single Indian institution can own 15 per cent at most; but it must be ICICI, IFCI, IDBI, LIC, UTI, IDFC, or a company controlled by the Central government, or a bank, insurance company, stock exchange, depository, or clearing corporation. A human investor can own five per cent at most. Note that all the acronymous bodies started as government companies; it has a controlling share in them except for ICICI.

 

The committee wants to introduce a new anchor institutional investor, who would be allowed to take an initiative in setting up new stock exchanges and take 24 per cent of equity initially, to be reduced to 15 per cent in 10 years. All the permitted institutional investors I have listed above can be AIIs, except stock exchanges, depositories and clearing corporations; and an AII must have net worth of Rs 1,000 crore at least. In other words, the committee wants to stop stock exchanges from setting up new stock exchanges, and wants to reserve the setting up of future stock exchanges to government financial institutions, except for ICICI — the trivial exception that proves the committee's intent; it wants to make sure that the Central government would control all future stock exchanges from inception.

 

That would still leave existing private exchanges. For them, the committee has another proposal. At present, a quarter of their directors can be trading members. The committee wants them to be thrown out, and relegated to a so-called advisory committee — one which can advise all it wants but decide nothing. If brokers cannot be directors, who is left? The committee wants all to be what it calls public interest directors. It gives a negative definition of such a director: he must have nothing to do with either stockbrokers, investors or listed companies. And how are such gems to be found? Ask who would control the stock exchanges, and you have the answer.

 

Can stock exchanges be listed? The committee opposes their listing. So an investor — that five per cent fellow — cannot just sell his shares on the market. Why then should he invest, when he cannot become a director, and when he has no influence on the management except that he can go to the annual general meeting and perhaps open his mouth?

 

Because of the dividends? The committee says stock exchanges must not be allowed to make more than "reasonable" profits. And who will decide what is reasonable? You have got it — the government. Who will invest in a stock exchange on these terms? The committee has carefully weeded out all rational investors. So investors would have to be ordered to invest. And who can be so ordered? The dutiful daughters of the government mentioned above.

 

If implemented, the recommendations of this committee will create jobs for retired and surplus civil servants. The government is run by civil servants. They have created many jobs in public enterprises, commissions and regulatory bodies where they can earn salary plus deputation allowance in comfort and their bosses can dispose of them without giving them useful work. Now they want to annex the stock market to their empire. And why? Because, according to them, only they have the integrity and public spirit to serve and protect the investor.

 

This is entirely the wrong turn to take, 19 years after the reforms. A stock exchange is a computerized trading system; the minimum scale it requires to be profitable is a fraction of the current size of the market. Most world markets have a handful of exchanges; but this only tells us how they have been regulated. There is no reason to look for an optimum number of stock exchanges, let alone force it on investors. Technology today makes it possible to protect the investor completely, to identify errors or misbehaviour of traders instantaneously, and to interconnect any number of exchanges seamlessly. Regulation is easier today than ever before; if proof is needed, one only has to look at the long list of traders whom Sebi has punished.

 

Competition among stock exchanges is not only possible; it is necessary. The number of businesses in India is hundreds of times the number of listed companies. If these small and medium businesses were listed, access to the capital market would enable the efficient ones to expand faster at the expense of inefficient ones; it would raise the rate of growth of productivity, which is the essence of national growth. Competition in the capital market is as powerful a force for improvement as competition in the market for goods and services. If listing requirements were eased and controls on the setting up of exchanges removed, local exchanges would come up to connect local producers and investors. Growth would spread further across regions and activities. All that is needed for it is withdrawal of the dead hand of the Central government. Let it fatten itself on the tax revenue that the growth would bring

 

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPINION

MAKE A CLEAN BREAK

MALVIKA SINGH

 

As rich and powerful scamsters get away, thanks to long-winded interrogations and delayed justice, protected by the system and its employees who vow to ensure justice for all but do just the opposite, non-government workers and committed social entrepreneurs, who work for the poor, neglected and disempowered, get sentenced to life imprisonment for speaking the truth. That is India at the end of 2010. Gandhiji too, in his time, was treated in a similar fashion by the then rulers of India, for working with the poor, and mobilizing Indians to fight for their rights and the truth. When the baton was passed, there was one generation of bureaucrats committed to building an India entrenched in the fundamentals laid down in the Constitution. It was a challenge, but they were deeply committed to building a modern nation-state.

 

Sadly, post-1950s, this country saw the beginnings of governance with greed. The authorities began to behave like the colonial masters of yore, forgetting that authoritarian and dictatorial stances eventually culminate in a revolt against an insular State, disconnected from its subjects' needs. This feudal attitude nurtured nepotism and rapidly corrupted the Central, state and local administrations. With the declaration of the Emergency in 1975, for all the wrong reasons, corruption got legitimized, and when Emergency was lifted, the incoming political dispensation, a conglomerate of parties, did not dismantle the irregularities but, instead, perpetuated the horror that came to stay. We are paying a heavy price today for the failure, back then, to ensure an immediate corrective.

 

Party power

 

Leaders of all hues wallowed in the temporary luxury of supreme power without accountability and misused the patience of an exploited citizenry. Thebabus jumped onto the bandwagon and forgot that their mandate was to be completely non-partisan. India began to stumble as its rulers built their fortunes. It has been the classic case of watching the Empire in decline and we are now witnessing its possibly violent end. Short-term measures to assuage the anger of the people, as they witness deep-seated corruption among the high and the mighty, are mere veils that Indian citizens can see through. As there is no access to the rule of law for ordinary, honest citizens, the revolt across the land is growing.

 

The system has excelled at corruption and all its myriad delivery channels. Since the babu and the politician understand the prevailing system well, and have learned to operate it with deft efficiency, they need to replace greed and graft with honesty and integrity for a start. Who will lead this 'revolution'? Who will break the vested interest lobby that has held India to ransom? Is there a Gandhi out there who will selflessly lead the renewal, even if the present 'authorities' term the corrective measures 'sedition'? Will we be fortunate to have a leader who will rule with the right priorities for the citizens? Does the elected government have the guts (there is no other word for it) to overhaul the existing configuration and replace the manipulative men and women with people who operate with good sense, intelligent applications of policy, and are capable of listening carefully? Policies clearly established within the democratic framework enshrined in our Constitution must not be subverted by intellectually, morally and emotionally weak people at the helm of governance.

 

The best New Year gift to India would be a definite overhaul of the council of ministers at the Centre that may bring about a renewal of the office bearers of the All India Congress Committee. This is the time to revert the party's state secretaries back to live in the states and restore credibility across India. For these men and women to call the shots from Delhi is detrimental to the rejuvenation of the party.

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THE TELEGRAPH

OPED

A SLOW AWAKENING FROM A LONG NIGHTMARE

 

What drove women to the polling booths in large numbers during elections in Bihar? Perhaps the reservation of panchayat seats for women did the trick, writes Uddalak Mukherjee after visiting Patna and Hajipur

 

Women voters outnumbered men in nine out of the 38 districts in this year's assembly elections in Bihar. In these nine districts — Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Supaul, Madhepura, Darbhanga, Gopalganj, Siwan, Begusarai and Khagaria — the turnout of women voters, according to figures released by the Election Commission, was over 60 per cent. Overall, 54.85 per cent of the women cast their votes in the elections, as opposed to 50.70 per cent of the men.

 

Given Bihar's social and economic backwardness, and its long feudal history, the increase in the number of women voters was a significant development. Recently, I travelled to Patna and neighbouring Hajipur to examine what had stirred women in such large numbers to exercise their democratic right. Three reasons were being cited by analysts to explain the phenomenon — the decline in the number of crimes against women, the corresponding rise in employment opportunities and social security and the decision to reserve 50 per cent seats for women in panchayat bodies.

 

However, upon looking more closely, the first two factors seemed unconvincing. Police records show that Bihar has witnessed a steady rise in crimes against women since 2005 — a 10 per cent increase in 2006, 20 per cent in 2008, and, according to the state crime bureau, a total of 6,989 cases of atrocities against women have been recorded till October 2010. What I found confounding was that despite the dismal figures, most of the women I met in Patna — students, employees, housewives and even an elected member of the legislative assembly — said that they felt safer than before. Poonam Singh, a Janata Dal (United) MLA, assured me that young women travelling unaccompanied on the streets of Patna after dark was no longer an uncommon sight. (She also expressed concern for Bima Bharti, the legislator from Purnia, who had been admitted to a hospital in Patna after being grievously assaulted by her husband just a few days earlier.) Later, a group of young women, who sat chatting in a garishly painted coffee shop near Gandhi Maidan, echoed Singh's views. The discrepancy between their assurances and the alarming crime record only confirmed my suspicion that the situation had indeed been much worse earlier. But could such a marginal improvement prove to be decisive enough for the women to flock to the booths?

 

Bihar's performance in generating employment for women remains sketchy as well. A recent report by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India revealed that of the total number of women labourers who migrate to Delhi, 32 per cent hails from Bihar. The data clearly indicate that the continuing paucity of jobs is forcing women, especially those from rural areas, to leave the state. Five-year-old data related to women's participation in the labour market are as dismal: 13.8 per cent and 6.5 per cent in villages and cities respectively. Only 0.2 per cent of women held a diploma then. I was told that some of the government's welfare measures for women — such as the formation of self-help groups and the distribution of uniforms and cycles to girl students — had proved to be popular, but Bihar still has a long way to go before it empowers its women socially and economically. It is improbable that Bihar's women voters had forgotten the stark realities before the elections. Yet they had come out in large numbers and returned Nitish Kumar to power with a thumping majority. Why?

 

Perhaps Kumar's pioneering decision to reserve 50 per cent of the seats inpanchayats in 2006 had proved to be the determining factor. To find out whether the reservation of seats in local bodies had indeed led to a nascent sense of political empowerment of women, a colleague and I decided to travel to Mandai-di, a village in Hajipur district, approximately 80 kilometres from Patna, late one evening to meet a mukhiya, a woman named Lalita Devi, who had contested and won the panchayat elections. On our way, over roads mauled by unceasing traffic, past an imposing bridge across a seemingly endless river, I reflected on the uniqueness of the panchayat model followed in Bihar.

 

Unlike in Bengal, Bihar's political parties do not contest panchayat polls. Individual contestants in the fray are issued separate electoral symbols by the state EC. I was eager to know whether such a model, shorn of the trappings of debilitating politics, had succeeded in empowering Bihar's women politically.

 

The initial signs were far from encouraging. We stopped at the mouth of Mandai-di to ask for directions to Lalita's house. It was bitterly cold, there was no electricity, and the village lay enveloped in darkness. A few men, huddled in front of a crackling fire, swore that the mukhiya was not a woman, but a man by the name of Upinder, who, we discovered later, was Lalita's husband. Somehow, we managed to reach our destination, after which Lalita served us delicious tea. But she herself stepped out of the room for the interview only upon her husband's return.

 

Lalita, who looked to be in her early thirties, was indeed the mukhiya of Mandai-di. She was not unlettered, having studied till matriculation. She had two children — two little boys who watched the proceedings with interest from one of the rooms — and her life had changed considerably after she was elected. She remembers clearly how nervous she had been to step out of her home and preside over meetings to address the village's problems. Earlier, Upinder used to accompany her to the meetings with villagers and officials, and she followed all his instructions carefully on such occasions. But, four years into the job, things have changed. Lalita still feels a little tense before such meetings, but she often attends them without Upinder in tow. Her knowledge of the problems that confront Mandai-di — the perpetual shortage of water, the lack of concrete roads, the absence of electricity and so on — has improved considerably, and she has begun to analyse the problems and offer solutions without depending on Upinder's advice. Lalita admitted that she enjoys her responsibilities and the respect that she has earned from other villagers after becoming a mukhiya.

 

On hearing our voices, Lalita's father-in-law, an ancient creature with a furrowed forehead, stepped on to the porch. Immediately, Lalita stood up, offered her seat to the old man and pulled the end of her sari over her forehead. But she continued to answer my questions in a slightly lowered voice. The old man, after being thoroughly ignored by the visitors and thebahu, left in a while, and Lalita quietly took her seat again. All this while, Upinder continued to nod, smile and gaze proudly at his wife. When Lalita went inside to fetch another cup of tea, a young man, perhaps Lalita's relative, admitted sheepishly that he felt strange, and even angry, given the changes that were taking place.

 

Lalita's initial confusion and terror after winning the election are understandable. Bihar has famously had a woman chief minister who, it is said, was dragged to the oath-taking ceremony by her husband, who paid no attention to her meek protests and tears. A report published by the Independent Commission for People's Rights & Development, three years ago, stated that only 7.5 per cent of Bihar's women headed their own households, 16 and 15 per cent of women did not need permission to go to the market and visit friends, respectively, 42.6 per cent of women had a say in health decisions while 66.1 per cent of the state's women had access to cash. The reservation of panchayat seats may not have radically changed the world outside, but it has certainly transformed the inner lives of Bihar's women, restoring in them a sense of confidence and respect. Could it be that this renewed sense of self-worth and purpose, brought about by a political act — that of reservation — has inspired these women to participate in that critical democratic exercise called elections?

 

As the night lengthened outside, Lalita eagerly discussed her future. She is certain that she will contest the next panchayat elections, which are scheduled for next year, and appeared unwavering in her support for the present political dispensation, which has created conditions that are conducive to her first political engagement. She also demonstrated an eagerness to improve her understanding of matters related to government policy, panchayat funds, and laws concerning development. But what was most evident was her commitment towards her responsibility and to the people who had elected her to the post that she now holds.

 

My conversations in Mandai-di opened up two intriguing questions. First, I began to wonder whether political empowerment should be interpreted in quantifiable terms only. Of the 243 legislators in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha, only 34 are women. But the handful of women MLAs does not represent the subtle, though promising, political awakening that seems to be taking place in women in Bihar's villages. After providing these women with the necessary impetus to vote, it is now this government's duty to fulfil their demands and safeguard their blossoming interest in and engagement with the political process.

 

But if this fledgling process is to succeed, the government has to undertake three other simultaneous measures urgently. It has to bring education to Bihar's women to enable them to make informed political choices. The literacy rate of women, as recorded by the last census, was a woeful 33.57 per cent. The drop-out rate among girl students in the age-group of 11-14 is a staggering 80 per cent, says another independent report. Second, the women who have been elected to the local bodies need to be trained so that they can understand and perform their duties better. Finally, the staunchly patriarchal bureaucracy, which has been resisting the induction of women in village administration, has to be reined in and sensitized.

 

The other question I pondered was this: is there a case for replicating Bihar's apolitical panchayat model in other states such as West Bengal? By stripping institutions of local governance of politics, Bihar seems to have strengthened the core components that are integral to democracy: performance, accountability and inclusiveness.

 

In 2005, Bihar had elected 25 women MLAs; this time round, there are 34. Patipur block, which comprises 158 villages including Mandai-di, has also elected 19 women mukhiyas in the 32 seats that were contested. I could not help feeling that the figures presaged a slow change But does the government have the will to take this process to fruition?

 

I did gather evidence of another kind of slow resurrection that night in Mandai-di. Despite the late hour, the biting cold and the darkness, a market bustled with the voices of women buying and selling vegetables. Another group of women herded cattle nearby, while a solitary cyclist rode by carrying two milk cans. It was a little past nine in the night, but it felt as if dawn was about to break.

 

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******************************************************************************************DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

ILL-ADVISED MOVE

''THE VARSITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER FOR JUD-GES' BENEFIT.''

 

Education, it appears, is not a priority issue for the BJP government in Karnataka. The Yeddyurappa cabinet's decision last Friday to take away 20 acres of land from the Karnataka Veterinary Animal and Fisheries Science University's Hebbal campus reflects its skewed thinking. Shockingly, it is a unilateral decision as the varsity stakeholders were not even consulted, let alone their concurrence being sought. Understandably, teachers, students and administrators are angry. Even former vice chancellors have expressed their disappointment and anger over the decision and there is a sense of helplessness.

However, the government is utterly insensitive to the hurt feelings of the varsity community. More seriously, it is not even bothered about the serious implications of its decision for the varsity's future. Deprived of almost one-fifth of its land, the varsity will find it difficult to implement its future expansion plans. At stake is not just the varsity's growth and expansion. The government decision exposes the varsity to the danger of losing its mandatory recognition by the Veterinary Council of India. The council's guidelines require that the varsity has in its possession a minimum of 150 acres of land for infrastructural purposes. The varsity did not have the stipulated land area even earlier. It had been hoping to get some 77 acres of land from the adjoining University of Agricultural Sciences campus, but the agricultural varsity, however, remains reluctant to part with it. Historically, the veterinary college — the main institution under the veterinary varsity's Hebbal campus — was an integral part of the agricultural varsity until the establishment of the separate varsity for veterinary sciences a few years ago.

The declared purpose of acquiring the varsity land is to build houses for the high court judges whose number has increased in recent years. While there are obvious questions if a premier educational institution should be made to suffer to facilitate a convenient residential colony for judges, there is reason also to question the government's intentions. A few years ago, the government had acquired almost 10 acres of land from what was then just the Hebbal Veterinary College campus to set up an agro engineering facility. But the facility was closed down within a few years and instead of returning the land to the college, the government merrily diverted the land to build residential quarters to members of the state legislature. Civil society must join the academic community to prevail upon the government to retract its ill-advised decision.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

EDITORIAL

STIFLING DISSENT

''PANAHI IS A VICTIM OF HEIGHTENED PARANOIA.''

 

A six-year jail term and a ban on film-making for 20 years for the celebrated film director Jafar Panahi is the latest act of suppression of personal freedom to emerge out of Iran. The theocratic leadership of the country has never been tolerant of dissidence and non-conformity. Those who strayed from the Islamic code of conduct, as interpreted by the mullahs, have invited the harshest punishment. The recent death sentence, to be carried out by stoning, of Sakineh Astiani, for alleged adultery had invited international attention. The sentence has now been stayed. But there are thousands of others who have been subjected to the harshest methods of persecution. A number of journalists and others were also imprisoned recently. The regime has sometimes been practical enough to moderate its punishment, but on the whole repression of even common freedoms has been the norm.

An artist's life is specially difficult in such an environment.   Panahi is not an ordinary artist either. He had made a mark internationally even with his first film in 1995, has won honours in festivals including Cannes and has been acknowledged as one of the leaders of Iranian and world cinema. But his films had all been banned in the country, mainly because he is among the critics of the Islamist regime. The immediate provocation for his prosecution and punishment was a film he was making on the Green movement. But the charges were never made clear, except that he and another filmmaker, who too was punished, worked against the system.

All good art is basically subversive and disrespectful of authority. Panahi's films, which took a critical look at Iranian society and questioned dogmas and religiously ordained norms and practices, could only have been seen as a threat by the authoritarian system. He has also portrayed the degraded position of women in the society. There is an environment of heightened paranoia and intolerance in Iran after the eruption of mass protests in the wake of the controversial 2008 presidential elections. Panahi had to pay with his freedom and career for being true to his conscience and convictions and for his courage. It is unlikely that the worldwide campaign for his release will have any impact on the regime, especially because he is known as a supporter of opposition leader Hossein Mousavi.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

MAIN ARTICLE

RECIPE FOR ANARCHY

BY B G VERGHESE

The opposition insists that the government must face parliament but will not let it function or decide. This is an insult to the people of India.

 

Some years after Truman, echoing Roosevelt, proclaimed four great freedoms for mankind — of speech and expression, of worship and from want and fear, Bob Hope added a fifth category, freedom from humbug. Its relevance was well illustrated by the BJP and the Left during the just concluded winter session of parliament when they raucously muzzled all debate, ostensibly to save democracy from corruption and misgovernance. This is humbug of a high order.

The arguments used to justify this are self-serving. There is an ordained or ongoing scrutiny of the 2G spectrum matter by the public accounts committee, a CBI review of spectrum allocation from 2001 being monitored by the supreme court, an investigation of any policy malfeasance by a retired supreme court judge and a parallel investigation by the enforcement directorate.

Since the opposition remained dissatisfied, the prime minister volunteered to appear before the public accounts committee and the government proposed a special session of parliament to debate whether or not a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) would add value to the ongoing proceedings.

The opposition, especially the BJP, will have none of this and insists that it is not for the PM to choose the forum before which he is arraigned. It wants the constitution of a JPC rather than a debate on the need for one as offered. This is an untenable stand and devoid of merit. The public accounts committee is one of half a dozen established joint committees of parliament under its rules of business.

 

On the other hand, there is no standing provision for any other JPC except by express direction of parliament. So for the opposition to insist on reference of the so-called spectrum scam to the exchequer to a non-existent body that can only be constituted by a specific mandate of parliament, is an absurdity. The opposition insists that the government must face parliament but will not let parliament function or decide. This is an insult to the people of India who did not elect their MPs merely to prevent parliament from functioning.

All this is seemingly justified by the enormity of the estimated loss of Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the public exchequer as a result of mala fide rate fixation for the sale of spectrum. This is a largely hypothetical figure. The then prevailing sluggish growth of tele-density with high call rates yielded to an exponential growth in telephony and a correspondingly sharp fall in call rates, partly because spectrum was sold at fixed or low prices.

Real national benefit

This entailed transferring real national benefit from a small, elite telephonic clientele to a greatly growing segment of the public. The social cost of such a transfer cannot be described as stealing money. If enhanced connectivity promoted higher growth, investment and employment was there no dividend to the exchequer?

This is not to suggest absence of mala fide as some illicit gain has been clearly proven. There was also delay in taking corrective action. But the range and degree of malfeasance have to be established and that is what the parallel probes currently under way are designed to establish.

A thoroughgoing parliamentary debate could have brought greater clarity regarding possible failures of policy or implementation and indicated what needed to be probed or if any charges should be preferred and against whom. This was not allowed to happen. The tail assumed the right to wag the dog and the will of the people was claimed by a minority opposition.

If the premier institution of parliament can be held to ransom in this bizarre fashion, it could next be the turn of the judiciary or the CEC to be told that unless some other norms are adopted at the whim and fancy of an assorted group of protestors, these constitutional authorities will be prevented from performing their functions. This is a recipe for anarchy. The real motivation was and is the hope of electoral advantage and the smell of power. 

It was not for nothing that a BJP spokesperson publicly stated that until a few weeks ago, the party could not even remotely envision electoral victory in 2014. But now the 'kursi' had come into view and appeared drawing nearer by the day. Hence evidence of vaulting ambition. The Left is staring electoral nemesis in the face in Bengal and Kerala.

 

The more blatant conceit of the BJP is matched by its deceit in planning anti-government rallies in several states. Karnataka has been excluded as the BJP government there has been caught with its hand in the till. Blatant corruption has been exposed by the Lokayukta who has been given short shrift by the state administration.

The Congress too must turn the light inwards. It has fostered corruption and protected the corrupt. It may be procedurally correct regarding the JPC; but where is its moral authority? Surely all sides must join hands to tackle the prevalent moral rot collectively in the coming year.

 

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DECCAN HERALD

IN  PERSPECTIVE

JUSTICE FOR BINAYAK SEN

BY AMBROSE PINTO S J

As a concerned doctor, his is a life at the service of the poor and the downtrodden.

 

There never has been such an uproar over the justice system as against the verdict of Binayak Sen in recent years in the country. Not only civil society groups, eminent intellectuals, members of the judiciary and international organisations have expressed disgust at the verdict to imprison Binayak Sen to life by the Raipur sessions court on sedition and waging war against the Indian state.

Those who have covered the story of Dr Sen have reacted with utmost horror at the sheer injustice of the judgment. Such low quality of justice, routinely delivered in our courts, is indeed a threat to Indian democracy. It is a pity that the judicial system has not been able to uphold principles of law and justice.

Flawed judgments like the one delivered on Dr Sen are likely to further undermine the credibility and reputation of the judiciary. From university campuses to newspaper offices to middle class homes and power corridors across India, this is a judgment which is seen to be clearly destroying the last edifice of the public perception of the Indian justice system.

Service

Dr Sen is a professor at the prestigious Christian Medical College (CMC), Vellore. As a concerned doctor, his is a life at the service of the poor and the downtrodden. Since he worked among the Maoist infected regions of Chhattisgarh which is a home for the impoverished tribals, he has been accused of de-stabilising the Indian state in nexus with the Maoists.

When he was imprisoned from May 2007 to May 2009, at least 22 Noble prize winners from all over the world had sought his immediate freedom lauding his exemplary work in providing the best of treatment to the impoverished adivasis. Distinguished artists, academics, filmmakers and writers had campaigned and petitioned for his freedom. Students from across India and the world had organised protests, campaigns and concerts demanding freedom for the compassionate doctor. He was released on bail by the supreme court as a result of a massive civil society campaigns.

The session court has once again given him a sentence of life imprisonment. The verdict is perceived as unjust to be handed out to one of India's finest social activists. The charges against Dr Sen, of allegedly aiding outlawed Maoist rebels in Chhattisgarh, have not been corroborated by any of the witnesses or evidence produced in the court.

The prosecution had failed miserably to show any evidence linking the highly respected paediatrician and human rights activist to a Maoist conspiracy. Friends who know Dr Sen and his work hold that the charges are trumped up and intended to punish him for his outspoken criticism of the Chhattisgarh government run by he BJP for its human rights violations against its own tribal population. The Chhattisgarh government has also persecuted other human rights activists for their role in exposing the real character of the Salwa Judum and other human rights violations.

The prosecution is mala fide, no doubt. In fact it is a persecution. He has been made a scapegoat by the state government of Chhattisgarh as a warning to others not to expose the patent trampling of human rights taking place in the state. Documents have been fabricated by the police and false witnesses introduced in order to falsely implicate. His conviction is one more example of the state succeeding in securing the conviction of an innocent person on the basis of false evidence.

While campaigns for his release have already begun across the nation and outside, this time, it should be an occasion for the nation to demand drastic reform of the criminal justice system to ensure that it is not manipulated by the state to persecute, prosecute and victimise innocent persons. There needs to be some action on all those who pass judgments without sufficient evidence so that the good and the honest are not made to frequent prisons and jails.

One thing is to ask for the release of Dr Sen. At the level of appeal that is bound to take place. Shouldn't there be a thorough inquiry against all those who have framed him so maliciously and given him the verdict without right and proper evidence?

There is also a need to compensate Dr Sen for being deprived of his basic freedoms and to his family for being subjected to the most inhumane mental torture and persecution. As citizens it is wrong to allow the justice system to be attacked by vested interest forces to further their designs.

(The writer is the principal of St Joseph's College, Bangalore)

 

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DECCAN HERALD

RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE

A CHRISTMAS PARABLE

BY SHIRLEY HEREFORD

Christmas is all about 'peace on earth and goodwill to all men.'

 

My Christmas message this year came from a most unexpected source — a tabloid article. And the preacher of this most unusual sermon came from a little security kiosk outside an exclusive up-market apartment complex. Debu Kumar, a security guard at the gates of this kingdom responded to the message of 'peace on earth, goodwill to all men' amidst the din of urban noise, through his simple act of kindness. To retell the story, an elderly man, wandered in the dead of night, lost and cold with not a memory to keep him warm, to the ostentatious but menacing gates of this gated community. Debu Kumar, only saw an elderly man who insisted his family lived in one of the apartments behind the gates. Debu had a choice to call the secretary of the owners' association, the police or turn him out by force. He exercised none of these 'innkeeper' choices but did something that recalled the whole Christmas story and message in very simple terms. He took the lost and cold, old man into his little kiosk, gave him a hot cup of tea and a blanket and gave him his 'stable' to sleep in. A Christmas parable was born that night!

Debu challenged my 'innkeeper' mentality. We set boundaries of the 'who's who'; we have rules of inclusion into our tight circles; we define and label according to 'perceived' norms of acceptability and we constantly reject anything or anyone who disturbs our comfort zone with a dismissive 'No room! No room!' Debu said, he thought what was more important than anything else was to keep 'the lost man with no name covered,warm and safe.'

Debu's response reverberated through other echoes in my mind — a French folk tale about Papa Panov's Special Christmas, retold by Leo Tolstoy. Papa Panov waited through Christmas day for his promised guest, while going about his day, helping and feeding the poor, the cold and the hungry. At the end of the story, his divine visitor revealed that he had indeed visited the shoe maker in the persons Papa Panov had fed, clothed and warmed. The two stories merged to recharge my view that Christmas is not a season but a belief, a creed to live by everyday.

Today Christmas is viewed as a season of good cheer for ourselves but Christmas in the truest sense of the word is about  'peace on earth and goodwill to all men...' specially men and women who are unloved, lost and unlovable, by modern standards. It must have been hard for Debu to think differently and embrace the moment, as he too was just as much an outsider as the stranger at the gates. He was willing to take a risk and open the door of his humble abode to a stranger with no memory. He was compassionate and opened his heart to love and understanding, acceptance and kindness to the lost wanderer.

Debu was no social worker, or rich do-gooder or someone embracing the seasonal attitude. He was just a good human being, a Good Samaritan! Or he might have just been an angel signifying the Christmas message.

 

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

TOOTHLESS TIGERS

 

Almost every state in India has got an Economic Offences Wing headed by a very senior police officer usually a serving Director General of Police and a Lokayukt, a public integrity watch dog, a post usually a former Supreme Court Judge or a former Chief Justice of a High Court. How is it then that despite the presence of these two institutions led by high ranking persons, the cancer of corruption goes on spreading its tentacles? The two institutions are often in the news for raiding this or that official/office but it is seldom that one hears of a conviction in a case caught by the two institutions. The Lokayukts go on complaining that their recommendations for sanction for prosecution are held up by the state government for year rendering the entire process infructuous. Isn't it high time that governments act more responsibly and let these watch dog institutions function. 

RJ Khurana, Bhopal                                 

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

RESERVATION DEMAND OF GUJJARS

 

The Court has rightly rejected reservation demand of Gujjars. Strangely in spite of Court's decision so called peaceful protests by them are continuing-rail and road transport is blocked. For peaceful protests no public person-common man should be affected in any way in his daily routine. Why the government / authorities are helpless in taking any action? Vote bank politics must put to end. Stricter and harsher measures are must for violating law and order situation and harassing common men by so called these champions of a part of section of people of India. The government must not tolerate nuisance of such people.

The best course of action is delete the word "Reservation" from Indian Constitution" by a suitable amendment in the Parliament-to save all such odd situations in future India!

It is the need of hour that there should not be any reservation for minorities either in educational institutions or anywhere else. Quotas are politicians' tool and help nobody but them. Reservations have adverse effects as inefficient people get jobs rather easily and this causes deterioration in quality of services. Hence reservations should not be permitted. Greater opportunities for the poorer sections of society are a must but reservations are not the answer. The government should focus its energies on building better infrastructure, creating jobs and setting up colleges and universities. If the government is incapable of performing these tasks then the private sector should be given incentives to step in and get the job done. 

M Kumar, New Delhi

 

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

DRAGON & ELEPHANT: COMPLICATED NEIGHBOURHOOD

 

Year 2010 marks sixty years of diplomatic relationship between India and China. Though the relations between the two go back to ancient times, the period since 1950 till present is mainly fraught with boundary dispute, which also led to a short-lived war in 1962. But in recent times, both sides have successfully attempted to normalize the bilateral relationship, mainly driven by the mounting bilateral trade. Although strengthening economic relationship has overshadowed other areas of conflict, that doesn't provide any space for complacency, particularly on Indian side of the fence. 

Amongst the major areas of conflict, the most important one is relating to the boundary dispute. While on the Western frontier, some part of Kashmir region is under Chinese occupation, on the Eastern side of frontier, the dispute relates to McMahon Line. India treats that as the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but China refuses to recognize it, even though it recognizes the same McMahon Line with Myanmar. Many attempts have been made to resolve the boundary dispute but results have been very modest.

In 2003, Prime Ministers of both countries agreed to appoint Special Representatives (SR) to discuss and find a solution to the dispute. Also, during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabaos India visit in 2005, Beijing and New Delhi agreed on broad parameters to resolve the border dispute. This gave political mandate to the SRs. Despite above efforts, the recently concluded 14th round of talks between the SRs in Beijing, failed to produce anything substantial, apart from the SRs sharing the respective political and strategic concerns of their nations. 
The bone of contention, other than border issue, is both nations respective relationships with the third countries. While India is irked by strategic relationship enjoyed by China and Pakistan, China on the other hand, is anxious by growing Indo-US proximity. The main reason for Indias worry is Beijings defence and nuclear assistance to Pakistan and also Chinese presence in what India calls Pak Occupied Kashmir (PoK), by way of infrastructure building. Moreover, since two years now, China has started issuing stapled visas to Indians domiciled in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, thus challenging India's sovereignty and territorial integrity. 
In addition to this, Chinas overtures to Nepal and infrastructural assistance to Sri Lanka provide substance to Indias fears of String of Pearls phenomenon. Added to this, the upstream damming of trans-boundary Rivers (Sutlej and Tsangpo-Brahmputra) by China, and that too without intimating or consulting downstream nations (in this case India), contradicts the Peaceful Rise of China doctrine. This arrogance of dragon is rooted in its sheer economic might and lately acquired defence capabilities. 

Recent visit to India by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was expected to clear the air on above issues and strengthen the partnership in various areas of strategic convergence. But unfortunately, it did little to lift Indian unease over border dispute and Sino-Pak relations. The joint communiqué fell short of condemning 26/11 Mumbai attacks and calling on Pakistan to control terrorism, even though both sides agreed to combat terrorism in all its forms through joint efforts. 

Notwithstanding this, what has tied together New Delhi and Beijing is trade. Wen brought with him a business delegation of over 300 executives, largest ever by any leader to any country. On very first day of his visit, business deals worth over $ 16 billion were signed. Presently, annual bilateral trade is about $ 60 billion. Both have set a new target of $ 100 billion by 2015. Here too, Indias concern about its increasing trade deficit has been met by mere assurances by Wen on opening Chinese markets for Indian IT, Pharmaceuticals and engineering goods sectors. 

Being world's two most populous nations and fastest growing economies, India and China share lot in common. Cooperation between the two has been evident on international fora and issues like WTO, Climate Change, reforms in international financial institutions, and groupings like G20, BRIC and RIC. Here again, Chinese gesture falls short of clearly endorsing Indias bid for permanent membership in UN Security Council, with joint communiqué stating China understands and supports Indias aspiration to play a greater role in the UN, including in the Security Council. All other veto members of UNSC, including the US President Obama lately, have unambiguously endorsed India's permanent admission to the body. 

The Sino-India relationship is a tightrope walk. Careful orchestration of policies on both sides is need of the hour. Notwithstanding coordination and cooperation on various regional and international issues, both India and China have different visions for an ideal Asia and the ideal world. While India envisages both a multipolar world and a multipolar Asia, China envisions a multipolar world and a unipolar Asia. But being a bigger, more powerful neighbour and a responsible global power, China should understand and address the legitimate concerns of India and stop treating it as a rival. It will not only reduce the scope for any outside interference but will also be a giant leap forward in achieving everlasting peace and security in the region. After all, both sides agree on the fact that there is enough space in the world for both Dragon and Elephant to grow peacefully. 
Sameer Jafri

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

THE ENDGAME AT CANCUN

 

As I write this, some 24 hours are left to finalise the agreement at the 16th Conference of Parties to the climate change convention being held in Cancun. At this moment it seems the predictable deadlock in talks will continue.

Like all other global climate meetings, the world remains deeply divided on the matter of how to cut emissions of greenhouse gases that even today determine economic growth.

Over the past three years—since the meeting held in Bali—much has changed in the negotiations and much will change in Cancun. In the past years developing countries have done all they can to break the deadlock; they have budged from their held positions, they have been proactive in international negotiations and they have developed a domestic agenda for climate change mitigation. But each forward shift in the position of the emerging world has only meant a backward slide and hardening of position of the rich countries.
Worse, there has been aggressive and often clandestine movement to shift the very nature of the global climate agreement to suit the US. This is the endgame of Cancun. We need to understand this.

2007, Bali: The draft resolution asked for deep emission reduction cuts from the industrialised world— up to 20 per cent by 2020. The US was rigid in its stance that it would do nothing within a legal framework and nothing till China and India were similarly committed. 

There was much at stake as the world climate was clearly heating up. There was pressure to act. By now the global (read western) media had successfully painted China and India as the villains in the climate pack. They had shifted public opinion away from the historical and rising pollution of the US to the chimneys of Beijing. 
The developing world made a drastic shift in its position to bring the US on board. One, it agreed to a separate regime for the US based on its domestic actions that would not be legally binding. Two, it agreed to take on national actions to mitigate emissions, but underlined that these would have to be enabled by technology and funding. It also agreed that the supported actions would be subject to an international regime for monitoring and verification. The world was given two years to firm up this action plan. 

2009: By now it was clear that the Democratic government of Obama was not different from its predecessor Bush's. It was only more visible and more determined to have its way. The bar of compromise was shifted again. The concession made by the developing world at Bali was brushed aside as too little. The shrill call went out: China and India and others in our part of the world should state their emission reduction targets. Nobody asked what was the target the US was willing to put on the table. The pressure was on us to respond. It was also repeated that we were the deal breakers. India and China wanted growth at all costs. This line was fed to and swallowed by many Indian commentators and politicians alike. 

So we caved in and complied once again. India put out its energy intensity reduction target and a national action plan on climate change. China went aggressive in building a renewable energy portfolio. Brazil went on to cut its rates of deforestation. All this was done without any matching commitments from the US. The US continued to commission and build coal-based power stations and increase its gas-guzzling vehicle fleet.
2009, Copenhagen: By now the goal posts had been shifted again. The Obama administration made it clear:

 

nothing or all. It also stitched up a coalition of the willing with the Bush-like motto, "with us or against us". At this meeting the terms of the new agreement were revealed. It was simple: no global agreements would be legally binding on the rich countries. Instead, there would be one agreement for all. 

This would be based on domestic actions, not determined by historical emissions but by the willingness of each country to act. But all these actions would be measured, reported and verified. It would internationalise domestic actions. There would be no distinction between the industrialised world and the rest. There would be no promise of money or technology. All this added up to a weak and effective deal, designed by and for polluters. 

In Copenhagen, in spite of the Obama touch (he came, bullied and charmed), there was no agreement on this non-deal. Now in Cancun the negotiations are designed to move the pieces ahead. The goal is clear: by the next meeting in Durban all opposition to the new deal should be removed, even at the cost of making the world bleed. But the question remains: now that the US has got the world to sink even lower in its expectations for an agreement that will be effective or equitable, will it honour its side of the bargain? Till now there is little evidence to suggest that it will take on emission reduction targets commensurate with its historical responsibility. Till now there is every evidence that it will wreak the agreement and then walk out of doing even the little it has promised. 

Then why should the world give up its chance to build an agreement on climate that will work effectively? Why?

Sunita Narain

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

RUSSIA-INDIA BHAI-BHAI

 

The recently concluded Russian President Medvedev's visit re-emphasized the progress in India-Russia strategic partnership in the ten years since it was instituted in 2000. The Annual Summit meeting reviewed the changing contours of the international scenario and deliberated on bilateral, regional and global issues where the two reliable partners can work together.  

India and Russia do not have any core clash of interest endangering its relationship. This is a significant positive point that could take the ties forward in diverse areas, beyond the more conventional defence sector. The growing business confidence in India and its economic prowess should open up many more doors in the business-to-business sector and going by the recent summit; both sides have realized the potential and are on the move. 

Of late, the burgeoning ties between the US and India has captured the limelight and the successful visit of President Obama in November further cemented the growth curve in the story. New Delhi's gesture toward Washington and vice-versa has remarkably changed since the signing of the Indo-US nuclear deal and the global recession has only increased the attractiveness of the Indian market for the US. 

The kind of camaraderie that the Indian Government has begun to share with its US counter-part in recent years has definitely raised eyebrows among Russian policy makers and analysts. Of course, the nature of international politics has gone for a paradigm shift whereby a relationship with one country should not come at the expense of another. 

Also, Russia and the US are no longer on each other's throats like in the Cold War era. However an India looking to the West is definitely going to present some strategic challenges to the Russian policy framers. As such, Moscow would not like too many eggs being put in the "New Delhi-Washington basket". Now, it depends on the Indian diplomatic circuit as to how it balances bilateral relations and at the same time, seizes on the attraction that India demands as a rising economic and political power. 

One of the highlights of the India-Russia relationship is the cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy. This has been reiterated on subsequent visits of leaders from both sides. The synergy between Russia as a major energy producing country and India as a major energy consuming country is the catch-phrase of the cooperation in this field. The joint statement read, "They reviewed the progress that has been made for the commissioning of Units 1&2 of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project and the discussions for setting up additional units at Kudankulam including Units 3&4." 

A MoU was signed envisaging joint research and development in reactor technology and related fields for peaceful uses of atomic energy by nuclear research institutes on both sides. A senior official involved with the discussions said that signing of a commercial contract for Kudankulam 3 & 4 would take some more time, as pricing and liability issues needed to be sorted out. "We are hopeful of that being done at the earliest," he said. 
As expected, the Nuclear Liability Bill raises some concerns among foreign countries hoping to invest in India's nuclear energy market. The countries wishing to do business with New Delhi have not taken strong positions against the Bill. Nevertheless, this issue has to be worked out in a graduated manner that will not hamper the vital interests of any side. 

Further boosting joint ventures in the energy sector; an inter-Governmental agreement was signed between India and Russia for Enhancement of Cooperation in Oil and Gas Sector which is expected to provide an administrative framework for joint undertaking of projects in India, Russia and third countries by oil and gas companies from both countries.  

Besides the burgeoning defence trade, broader economic ties are not matching the potential. Major initiatives have been taken with a vision to close these gaps and harness potential to the optimum level, particularly to expand the business-to-business links in addition to the ones between the two Governments. Both sides agreed to continue their efforts to achieve the strategic target of bilateral trade volume of US $ 20 billion by 2015. 
Recent noteworthy investment agreements include a MoU for cooperation between India's iron-ore major NMDC and Russia's Severstal to establish a joint venture for setting up an integrated steel plant in Karnataka. Also, an inter-Governmental agreement seeks to ease the travel procedures to increase business contacts between the two countries besides others. 

Both sides reached an agreement on Integrated Long Term Programme of Cooperation in Science, Technology & Innovation to guide innovation-led R&D collaboration in the field of science & technology during 2011-2020. Also, agreeing to intensify cooperation in the space sector, the two sides appreciated the progress being made in India's utilisation of Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System, GLONASS. Moreover, some understandings were reached in IT and IT-enabled services and the pharmaceuticals sector. 

Despite fierce competition from other countries, India and Russia have shown that the defence ties are rock solid and will continue to be so in the interest of both nations. In its 2010 Yearbook, the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT) named Russia as the main arms supplier to India in 2002-2009. The CAWAT said Moscow would remain the top arms supplier to New Delhi in 2010-2013, with estimated deliveries worth $15.26 billion or 44.7% of India's arms imports during the same period ($34.1 billion). 

The joint India-Russia 'Indra' counter-terrorism exercise took place this October. The frequency of war-games and joint exercises has of late become a significant symbol of any defence tie-up and more such exercises should be expected. More. A preliminary Design Contract (PDC) for Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) was also concluded. 

When it came to the ubiquitous issue of terrorism, President Medvedev sang virtually India's tune. He called for expeditious punishment to terrorists involved in the Mumbai terror attacks and for prompt extradition of terrorists. Commenting on the issue of safe havens in the region, he remarked, "Terrorists are criminals. They should be extradited to be punished. Those who hide terrorists conceal criminals." 

The joint statement as expected "called upon Pakistan to expeditiously bring all the perpetrators, authors and accomplices of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks to justice.'' Russia also walked the expected line in supporting India's candidature for the permanent seat in an expanded UN Security Council. 

India-Russia ties ended on a good note last year with PM Singh's Moscow visit. It ends on a good note this year as well with the successful visit of the Russian President and the 10-year celebration of the institution of the India-Russia Strategic Partnership. 

Additionally, President Medvedev's visit completed a full circle as he was the last of the leaders of all the P-5 (permanent members of the UN Security Council) who came calling this year, thus vindicating the priority that India has acquired in the international system. Medvedev's visit followed that of Britain's David Cameron, the US President Barack Obama, France's Nicolas Sarkozy and recently China's Premier Wen Jiabao.

Monish Tourangbam, INFA

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CENTRAL CHRONICLE

EDITORIAL

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

 

The Madhya Pradesh government is making all-out efforts for development of rural areas. In the first phase the gram panchayats are being strengthened and in the second, efforts are underway to increase the income of the farmers. With a view to make the panchayats and gram sabhas strong, 21000 panchs, sarpanchs and panchayat secretaries have been given training for which 600 training programmes were organised.
With a view to increase the income of farmers, 42452 acres of land has been made arable. Nearly 32,000 acres of agriculture land has been made suitable for two-crops. Similarly, on 18,000 acres of land, the farmers are being encouraged to take up vegetables production to increase their income.

The State has endeavoured to promote organic farming for which the farmers are being trained. In Mandla district, organic farming is being carried out in 635 acres of land. As there is less expenditure and greater production in organic farming, the farmers themselves would be lured to take it up in a large scale in future. They would also save lot of money as the chemical fertilisers entail a huge cost.

Under the Rural Livelihood Project, over two lakh farmers were benefited through gram sabhas and 20,000 farmers through agriculture. Through  this plan, 55,000 families are being benefited through 487 grain banks and 3258 contingency funds.

The office-bearers of Gram Sabha and employees have been trained for this work. The NABARD too is doing a yeoman job by helping farmers in augmenting their income by taking up additional vocations like handloom, toy making, poultry farming, tendu collection, sericulture etc.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

BY ALEXEI BAYER

 

It's the Christmas season, and this is a time when you're supposed to tell sentimental stories that end happily and warm the cockles of your listeners' hearts.

 

Once upon a time, there was a spunky Russian technology startup. It was built from scratch by some of the country's best Ph.D. scientists who hadn't yet immigrated to the United States. For many years, the spunky startup provided new technologies to other Russian companies and government agencies, making the economy more modern and, along the way, earning the trust of its clients and respect of its partners abroad.

 

Then one day a bunch of gangsters came to visit the spunky high-tech company. They were not your usual gangsters because they wore the uniforms of a law enforcement agency. Nonetheless they were real gangsters — even though they had sworn a solemn oath to protect their Motherland from other gangsters — and they demanded a huge bribe for the right to stay in business.

 

The managers of the company thought about it and decided that the government gangsters should not be given the bribe but sent packing. It was, as I said, a spunky little company.

 

Gangsters don't like it when ordinary people refuse offers they shouldn't refuse. In their slang, Russian gangsters call ordinary people fryers, which, by coincidence, sounds like an English word for a plump chicken ready for the frying pen. Gangsters know that if fryers stop fearing them they will be put out of business. That's why fryers must always be taught a lesson, and the law enforcement gangsters decided to destroy the Russian company to demonstrate to other fryers what would happen to them if they don't give in to the gangsters' demands.

 

So the gangsters put on their uniforms and came to the successful company in an official capacity. They slapped huge fines on the company and threatened to put its managers in jail. They had no leg to stand on, but by the time the company could win an appeal in the court system it would have surely gone bankrupt. If the company eventually did go bankrupt, the gangsters would sell it to the highest bidder and then cancel the fines.

 

It was a dastardly plan, and it almost worked because the gangsters had all the power and knew that no one could come to the company's rescue.

 

Then one day before New Year's Eve, President Dmitry Medvedev was reading blogs on the Internet and ran across a description of what the gangsters were doing to the company. He was outraged. He picked up the phone and called the company.

 

"Have no fear, my friends," he said. "I will personally see to it that the gangsters are punished."

 

"Thank you very much, Mr. President," said the owners of the company. "But there is no need to punish them on our account. Let them repent and go free."

 

"I disagree," Medvedev said. "They are thieves, and thieves must go to jail."

 

The gangsters were stripped of their rank and  epaulets were torn from their shoulders, and they were sent to a Siberian prison to chop wood. And the spunky little Russian company went on with its important work of modernizing the Russian economy and making it more efficient.

 

You don't believe this story? Perhaps you are too cynical to believe in miracles. So am I.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE YEAR OF THE TANDEM SHOWS SPLIT AT THE TOP

POLITICALLY, 2010 WILL COME DOWN AS THE YEAR OF THE TANDEM. RUSSIA'S POLITICS IS ALL ABOUT THE TANDEM.

 

The country does not have competing political parties or ideologies. It has competing political courts and clienteles clustered around each national leader jostling for power and its spoils and building bridgeheads for the decisive battle of 2012.

 

The tandem's politics is not about expanding their support base through the power of ideas and smart policies, but about weakening the rival group through behind the scenes maneuvering, personnel reshuffles, redistribution of economic assets and television programming.

 

Still, the tandem's politics confirms former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Tip O'Neil's maxim that all politics is local.

 

The key battles have been waged around local issues: Moscow fires, traffic, corruption, the Khimki Forest and environmental issues — one was saving trees, while the other was saving tigers and polar bears — and economic geography of Russia — one was developing an innovation center at Skolkovo, and the other was developing the Far East.

 

Foreign policy has also seen its share of tandem politics. One made progress building bridges to the West, while toying with regime change in the near abroad. The other maintained a healthy skepticism of the West, while preferring to work with leaders closer to home.

 

The most serious battleground is over political stability. One sees it as the ultimate good that makes social development possible. The other views it as a tool that requires periodic shakeups through free elections to force needed social changes and avoid stagnation.

 

One appeals to the iPad generation that values innovation, freedom and openness to the outside world. The other appeals to the television generation that values stability, security and caution with regard to foreign influences. Their public support bases diverge ever more significantly with every month of tandemocracy.

 

These competing visions are the stuff that make presidential campaigns and elections real. But presidential elections are also about leadership. You get the sense of who is the better leader by comparing Medvedev's tweets in reaction to the riots in Moscow with Putin's storming into a meeting with enraged football fans and riding a bus with them to their friend's grave.

 

Therein lies the real difference between the Tweeter-in-Chief and the leader of the nation.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

MEDVEDEV'S SILENT MAJORITY

BY VICTOR DAVIDOFF

 

As the year closes, it's customary to look back on the successes and failures of the past 12 months and make resolutions for the year to come. Most people do this in private, but politicians differ from simple mortals. They sum up the year publicly. Both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putingave their impressions of 2010 in their recent television appearances. And for the first time in the history of the ruling tandem, their conclusions were very different.

 

The two men even looked different on the screen. The smiling Medvedev, casually using foreign and high-tech terms, was in stark contrast to the familiarly dour and now frequently tired appearance of Putin. The audience noticed this right away. The blogger Felbert wrote that Putin "fumbled over several questions and it sometimes seemed that he didn't know how to answer his people." Another blogger, Mikail-nesterov, wrote: "Medvedev's conversational style is a lot more attractive to me. There isn't that arrogance that slips out in Putin's manner."

 

Perhaps the difference in the leaders' moods reflects the changes in Russians' opinions of them. The independent Levada Center polls show that 27 percent of Russians are not pleased with Putin's cult of personality — a threefold increase over the last four years. At the same time, however, the number of people who support an authoritarian regime in Russian has fallen, from 40 percent to 27 percent in the last year. In a comment on these poll results, Ekho Moskvy radio noted that there are fewer people in Russia who believe that the enormous power wielded by Putin is benefiting the country. The polls also registered another important change: 67 percent of respondents said that today Russia needs a real political opposition.

 

As if recognizing this silent majority of Russians, Medvedev unexpectedly spoke on the topic of oppositional politics. "The fact that they are in the opposition doesn't mean that they are cut off from public life. They should openly speak about every problem." It was a real sensation when he mentioned names that have been banned from state television: opposition leaders Mikhail Kasyanov, Boris Nemtsov, Eduard Limonovand even Gary Kasparov, a man whom the prime minister reportedly loathes. Medvedev also stated firmly: "They are also public politicians. … Each of them has his own electoral base."

 

Medvedev didn't stop there. He continued to stun the audience with his response to a question about the fate of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Medvedev didn't answer the question directly but managed to say a great deal without saying much of anything. "It is completely clear that neither the president nor any other official in government service has the right to express his position on this case or any other case before the sentence is read — either a conviction or an acquittal," he said.

 

For Russians who have learned to pick out the message in political newspeak better than a musician can hear the melody in a Mahler symphony, this was really something. When Putin had been asked a similar question, he called Khodorkovsky a "crook" and launched into a tirade of accusations against Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev, including accusations that were not brought against them in court, including alleged complicity in murder. It's hard not to see Medvedev's words as a slap in Putin's face. As journalist Alexander Minkin wrote on his Ekho Moskvy blog, this was "a world sensation."

 

"It seems like the president and prime minister live in two separate countries," the blogger Felbert commented. "Putin's Russia is rallying for another great leap forward, while Medvedev's Russia is getting ready for another thaw and perestroika."

 

Nemtsov, one of the opposition politicians mentioned by Medvedev, summed up the year this way: "In the increasingly heated battle between Putin and Medvedev for the right to run for president in 2012, Medvedev has a great chance to win by canceling political censorship on television and freeing Khodorkovsky and Lebedev. The best New Year's present for Russians would be Putin's resignation."

 

Let's hope that Santa grants Nemtsov his wish.

 

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THE MOSCOW TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE WORLD'S LARGEST DYING POWER

BY VLADIMIR RYZHKOV

 

As 2010 and the first decade of the 21st century wind to a close, the dominant social, political and economic trends of the year raise serious doubts about Russia's future survival as a sovereign country. Chinese analysts, who have been closely observing Russia for the past 20 years, perhaps put it best: Russia is the world's largest dying power.

 

If Russia continues down its current path of autocracy, monopolization, corruption and overall economic, political, cultural and technological degradation, it may prove the Chinese correct in their terminal diagnosis.

 

To be sure, the country's degradation began before Vladimir Putin's rise to power, but the nature and causes of this degradation are much different than under Putin's degradation. During the 1990s, Russia found itself in complete political and economic ruins after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was hampered even further by low world oil prices throughout the decade. But  during the 2000s, Russia enjoyed record-high oil prices. Nonetheless, the oil windfall was not used to modernize, diversify or reform political and economic institutions. Instead, the lion's share of oil revenue was stolen or wasted on huge pork-barrel projects.

 

There are four main areas that made 2010 a record year for Russia's degradation:

 

1. The country declined on the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index from 57th place five years ago to 65th place this year. This was because of the gap between the rich and poor widened and because the middle class has remained at only 10 percent to 12 percent of the population for the past decade. In addition, education dropped nine positions in the index to 41st place among 60 countries at a time when Russia plans to reduce its investment in education and human capital. The share of gross domestic product spending on science, education and health care will continue to decline, while spending for the military, police, intelligence services and other siloviki structures will increase.

 

2. The state has become more corrupt and criminalized. The most striking example was the Kushchyovskaya massacre in early November that unmasked the complete fusion of organized crime and the local government, including the regional legislature, the court system and law enforcement agencies. It is no surprise that Russia fell 12 places in the most current World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report from 51st to 63rd place among 134 countries. Russia's state institutions were ranked among the very worst in the world at 118th place. While the Kremlin pronounces empty words and slogans about "modernization" and "nanotechnology," Russia has fallen to 80th place in the ranking for innovation, 126th place in terms of protection of property rights, 125th place for development of the financial market and 128th place for the high burden of state regulation on business. As a result, Russia again had the worst economic performance among the BRIC countries in 2010, including indexes for direct investment and economic growth, with capital flight from the country reaching $29 billion over 11 months.

 

3. The economy has become more state-controlled and ineffective. The share of the raw materials sector in the economy continued to grow in addition to its already oversized share in the country's export budget revenues. With the state's share in the economy now at 50 percent according to government sources — and even higher if you count businesses owned or controlled by state officials — and with state workers now accounting for every second employee, the level of economic competition is woefully low, which means a rise in prices and overall inflation and a drop in quality, productivity and quality of goods.

 

4. Most Russians are overcome by cynicism and anger over their declining standard of living and the fact that the ruling elite abuse their power and continue to embezzle money and assets from the people and businesses with impunity. In short, Russians have lost all hope for the future under the current leadership. This is reflected in rising crime, xenophobia and violence. The most striking evidence of the people's growing anger and intolerance and the disintegration of Russian society was the riot by ultranationalists on Manezh Square in early December.

 

To make matters worse, Moscow's practice of appointing Kremlin-friendly yet highly unpopular governors from outside the regions only intensifies the provinces' sense of alienation from the federal center. The Kremlin has taken an imperial approach to governing the regions, laying the foundation for an increase in separatist sentiments, particularly in the North Caucasus, Kaliningrad and in the Far East.

 

Putin's desire to remain in power for another 12 years after the 2012 presidential election spells disaster for Russia. In the best case scenario, we can expect long-term economic stagnation and social decline. This will be coupled with a continued rise in corruption, drop in foreign investment and the flight from Russia of both capital and millions of its best and most talented citizens. In the worst case scenario, the continued degradation caused by corruption, monopolization and lawlessness could result in a total collapse and disintegration of the country, and if the country's leadership doesn't change this happen in the next decade.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

EDITORIAL

LIEBERMAN GIVES NETANYAHU NO CHOICE

IF PM IS TRULY BENT ON ADVANCING A TWO-STATE SOLUTION, HE MUST HAVE SOMEONE AT THE HEAD OF DIPLOMATIC HIERARCHY WHO SHARES THAT GOAL.

 

Repeatedly since taking office, through public statements and actions, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he sees the Palestinian Authority as a potential partner for peace. In his June 2009 Bar-Ilan University speech, Netanyahu communicated his willingness to enter negotiations that would lead to the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state that would coexist in peace alongside Israel. Netanyahu subsequently entered indirect, and later direct, talks with PA President Mahmoud Abbasin an apparently sincere effort to reach an accord. He did this after acquiescing to a US demand to freeze building in the West Bank as a confidence-building measure that would facilitate these talks.

 

While Netanyahu's critics on the Left claimed that the prime minister was only paying lip service to the idea of substantive negotiations with the PA, he was explicit that this was not the case. During a speech in Washington at the beginning of September, when direct talks between the sides began, Netanyahu declared before the watching world, "President Abbas, you are my partner in peace. It is up to us to overcome the agonizing conflict between our peoples and to forge a new beginning."

The prime minister has also recently redoubled efforts to heal the gaping diplomatic rift with Turkey. In the heat of the Carmel fires earlier this month, after Ankara rapidly proffered firefighting help, he spoke by telephone with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, publicly expressed his gratitude for the assistance, and promised that Israel would find a way to demonstrate its appreciation. Shortly after the inferno was brought under control, Netanyahu shuttled senior diplomat Joseph Ciechanover to Geneva to meet Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu in an evident good faith attempt to repair the damages caused by the Mavi Marmara debacle. Plainly Israel, under Netanyahu, wanted to do what could be logically expected of it to improve relations with an important Middle East ally.

YET ON Sunday, during an annual meeting of ambassadors and consul-generals at the Foreign Ministry, these two sets of government foreign policy principles were publicly undermined by the man charged with advancing them. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman presented an outlook that contradicted the prime minister's thinking and actions in both the Palestinian and the Turkish arenas.

Of the Abbas-led PA, Lieberman stated: "We have to understand that there is a government there that is not legitimate." For this reason, he said, it would be folly to sign an agreement with the PA right now. In any case, he also said, contradicting Netanyahu's declared assessments, it would be "impossible under present conditions" to reach a comprehensive agreement with the PA.

Lieberman also lashed out at Turkey, branding statements by Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who risibly claimed over the weekend that Israel would not have rushed to help Turkey in a humanitarian crisis, "lies" and "false promises."

Essentially, Lieberman was branding the untold hours of Netanyahu-led preparations, flight time, planning, meetings and talks relating to the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process, not to mention the significant financial and emotional investments, a waste of time. So, too, the effort at delicate diplomatic maneuvering vis-à-vis Ankara.

NETANYAHU'S INITIAL response was strikingly muted. "The position of the government of Israel is solely the one articulated by the prime minister and the one expressed through cabinet decisions," a government statement asserted on Sunday night.

Some of Lieberman's sentiments, it might be noted, are not without merit. Many Israelis doubtless share his outrage at the sight of thousands of Turks welcoming the refurbished Mavi Marmara into port in Istanbul on Sunday with cries of "Down with Israel," and do not, as he put it on Monday, want Israel turned into Turkey's "punching bag." Many Israelis are also understandably skeptical about the PA's peacemaking intentions.

But Netanyahu has set out his assessments and goals publicly, and Lieberman – not for the first time, but notably starkly and resolutely – has now detailed his own conflicting outlook. No self-respecting prime minister can afford to tolerate a foreign minister so publicly at odds with him on such central areas of policy. And Israel cannot afford to live with the confusion.

So long as Lieberman is allowed to stay in his position, it will be suggested that his public statements reflect the prime minister's own secret beliefs. His presence will also severely undermine the ability of Netanyahu's government to maintain the trust of the US as an honest negotiator, let alone the trust of the international community or the Palestinians.

If Netanyahu is, as he insists he is, truly bent on advancing the prospects of a two-state solution, he must have someone at the head of his diplomatic hierarchy who shares that goal. The same applies if he wants, as he says he does, to pursue delicate diplomacy with Turkey. Lieberman cannot fulfill that role. From Netanyahu's own point of view, in light of his own declared assessments and his own stated goals for this coalition, with all the complex implications for his coalition, Lieberman has given him no choice but to fire him.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

COLUMN

ENCOUNTERING PEACE: POSTPONING THE INEVITABLE

BY GERSHON BASKIN  

 

There is very little Israel can actually do to prevent the world from recognizing Palestine. So what are we waiting for?

Talkbacks (4)

What would be so terrible if the state of Palestine continues to gain more and more recognition, even from Israel's friends and allies? That is the game in play today. Almost all of the world's leaders have come to the conclusion that the Netanyahu government has nothing to offer the Palestinians and that another round of negotiations at this time will be fruitless.

The Americans are also coming to the same conclusion, but it is more difficult for the self-appointed mediator and policeman of the world to accept the failure of its intervention and the limits of its power.

At the same time, the same leaders understand that the two-state solution must be saved. If Israel is unwilling, or unable to act in its own best interests by ending the occupation, the international community does not have to sit idly by as the best chance of peace withers away once again. The risks and consequences of another round of violence are too great to the parties, the region and to the world to allow an irresponsible Israeli leader to dictate the possible death of the only solution that can end the conflict.

No one is a great supporter of unilateralism. No one really believes that the conflict will be resolved through unilateral steps. It is quite evident that a negotiated agreement must be reached that will determine permanent borders and other core issues. Security arrangements must be agreed by both parties and supported by international monitors and peacekeeping forces. The lessons of the unilateral disengagement from Gaza without agreement have hopefully been learned by all.

But in the face of Israeli refusal to seriously engage in real negotiations and Palestinian refusal to come to the table until they see Israeli seriousness, the rules of the game need to be changed to compel the parties to reach a negotiated agreement.

 

BINYAMIN NETANYAHU supports the two-state solution – at least that is what he claims. Our prime minister is intelligent enough to understand exactly what that means; he knows what the permanent status peace agreement looks like. He is well aware that his predecessor Ehud Olmert was quite close to reaching an agreement, and both he and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud believe that with several more months of negotiations an agreement could have been reached.

That agreement would have brought about the birth of Palestine on more than 95 percent of the West Bank with territorial exchanges on a 1:1 basis, with two capitals in Jerusalem and some form of a special regime in the Old City. This is the agreement, there will be no other and this is also the vision of peace that almost every world leader supports.

 

So even if Netanyahu has a different vision of peace, in his heart of hearts he has to be aware that he cannot convince the Palestinians to accept less. He must also realize that Israel cannot allow itself to miss the possibility of reaching a negotiated agreement and there will probably never be a better opportunity than right now.

What can Israel do if the process of recognizing Palestine continues? Probably nothing. It can kick and scream, threaten and protest but unless it is interested in working against itself, there is actually very little that can be done to block the inevitable.

 

It can bring back checkpoints all over the West Bank as punishment. Will this help the security situation, which has never been better? 

It can withhold taxes and customs which it collects for the Palestinians in the framework of one of the only aspects of the Oslo agreement still working. Will the US and the EU, which are bankrolling the establishment of the Palestinian state, sit idly in the face of breaches of working relationships which are so vital to stability and security? 

It could prevent Palestinians from traveling because it controls all of the movements of the Palestinians. How long would that work and how could that be in its interest? 

Israel could unilaterally annex parts of the West Bank, but this would cross lines in international relations that no government before has even seriously considered. It could get the US Congress to write more letters to President Barack Obama and more House or Senate resolutions backing its policies, but that would not really help.

Let's face it, there is very little that Israel can actually do to prevent the world from recognizing Palestine. Eventually the US will also recognize it and, at least according to Netanyahu, so will Israel. So what are we waiting for? For decades we have tried to prevent the creation of the Palestinian state. One prime minister after the other sinceYitzhak Rabin has come to the conclusion that the only way to end the conflict is by accepting the logic that was behind the 1947 UN partition plan. So much blood could have been saved if we had been wise enough to accept the inevitable when our neighbors did in 1988 (41 years too late). How much more blood must be shed before the inevitable is implemented? 

The conflict is resolvable. The two-state solution is the only solution. It can be achieved today and there is no better leader than Netanyahu to do it. Netanyahu and Abbas can lead their peoples to a new beginning – a new day when the slogan two states for two-peoples becomes a reality.

The writer is the co-CEO of the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information (www.ipcri.org) and is in the process of founding the Center for Israeli Progress (http://israeli-progress.org).

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

OPED

COLUMN ONE: THE WARS OF 2011

BY CAROLINE B. GLICK  

 

Israel must be prepared for two things this upcoming year: A missile war with Hamas and a political war with Fatah.

 

Talkbacks (7)

On Sunday thousands of Israel haters gathered in Istanbul to welcome the Turkish-Hamas terror ship Mavi Marmara to the harbor. Festooned with Palestinian flags, the crowd chanted "Death to Israel," "Down with Israel" and "Allah akbar" with Hizbullah-like enthusiasm.

The Turkish protesters promised to stand on the side of Hamas when it next goes to war with Israel. They may not have to wait long to keep their promise. Over the past two weeks Hamas has steeply escalated its missile war with over 30 launches. Last week, a missile that narrowly missed a nursery school wounded a young girl.

Since Operation Cast Lead two years ago, Iran has helped Hamas massively increase its missile and other military capabilities. Today the terror group that rules Gaza has missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv. It has advanced antitank missiles. As Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida said Saturday, "We are now stronger than before and during the war, and our silence over the past two years was only for evaluating the situation."

That evaluation has not tempered Hamas's aim of annihilating the Jews of Israel. As Obeida's colleague Ahmed Jaabari said Saturday, Israel's Jews have two choices, "death or departing Palestinian lands."

 

IDF commanders are taking Hamas's new brinksmanship seriously. In recent days several have said that Israel's deterrence has eroded. Another Cast Lead is just a matter of time, they warn.

In the meantime, Fatah – Hamas's sometime rival and sometime brother – is preparing its next round of political warfare with its many friends around the world. Despite some recent tactical repositioning, its goal is clearly to proceed with its plan to declare statehood with maximum international support within the next nine to 12 months.

To this end, Fatah and its allies are operating on multiple fronts. On November 24 the UN General Assembly passed a resolution to hold a Durban III conference on September 21. The first conference, held in Durban, South Africa in September 2001, is mainly remembered as a diplomatic pogrom against Israel and Jews which complemented the shooting war in Israel.

As Jews were being butchered in pizzerias in Jerusalem, Jew-haters gathered to deny that Jews have human rights. They used the UN's anti-racism banner to assert that it is not racist to kill and incite the murder of Jews. Jews were singled out and condemned as the only nation in the world whose national liberation movement – Zionism – is racist.

BUT EVEN more important than its service in glorifying suicide bombers and their political commissars just three days before the September 11 jihadist assault on the US, the Durban conference was the place where the blueprint for the political war against Israel was authored. At the NGO conference which took place as an adjunct to the governmental conference, self-proclaimed "human rights" groups from around the world agreed that their job was to criminalize the Jewish state to isolate it politically, diplomatically and economically. As key organizers put it, the "activists'" job was to conduct a nonviolent jihad to complement the work of the "resistance fighters" massacring children and parents in Israel.

The Durban II conference last year in Geneva was supposed to reinvigorate the political war that was launched in 2001. But it was a bust. The only head of state to address the proceedings was Iranian dictator Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He used the occasion to again call for the eradication of the Jewish state.

To prevent another flop, last month the Palestinians and their supporters agreed that the 10th anniversary conference will be held in New York during the opening of UN General Assembly. Their goal is to piggyback on that conference to get heads of state that are in New York already to join in their anti-Israel political war.

And they have every reason for optimism. Although Canada and Israel have announced their plans to boycott the conference, the Obama administration has been noticeably unwilling to distance itself from it.

Given the swank locale of Durban III, the Palestinians and their friends trust they will enjoy a reprise of the virulently anti-Jewish NGO conference of a decade ago. The resolution clearly advocates such an outcome in its call for "civil society, including NGOs to organize and support" the conference "with high visibility."

For Fatah leaders like the Palestinian Authority's unelected president Mahmoud Abbasand its unelected prime minister Salam Fayyad, the Durban III conference will be the culmination of their current campaign to delegitimize Israel.

Last week the PA announced it will ask the UN Security Council to pass an anti- Semitic resolution defining Jewish building in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem as illegal. This move dovetails nicely with Abbas's statement over the weekend that "Palestine" will be Jew-free. As he put it, "If there is an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, we won't agree to the presence of one Israeli in it. When a Palestinian state is established, it would have no Israeli presence."

To date neither of these racist bids to deny Jews basic rights to their homes and land just because they are Jews has been opposed by any government or human rights group. And if the Obama administration allows the PA's anti-Semitic resolution to go forward in the Security Council, the move would be a massive victory for the political war against Israel.

That war has already won some other significant victories of late. The decision by five South American governments to recognize "Palestine" along the 1949 armistice lines, like the decision by a number of European states – following the US – to upgrade the PLO's diplomatic status are tactical gains.

 

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signaled this month that the Obama administration is wholly on board Fatah's political warfare bandwagon. In her speech at the Brookings Institute on December 10, she said the Obama administration supports Fatah's plan to build facts on the ground that will make it more difficult for Israel to maintain its control over Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.

After calling Jewish presence in the areas "illegitimate," Clinton pledged the US "will deepen our support of the Palestinians' state-building efforts."

Among other things, she pledged to continue training and deploying a Palestinian army in Judea and Samaria and pressuring Israel to withdraw the IDF from the areas.

As she put it, "As the Palestinian security forces continue to become more professional and capable, we look to Israel to facilitate their efforts. And we hope to see a significant curtailment of incursions by Israeli troops into Palestinian areas."

These then are the contours of the Palestinians' war plans for 2011. Hamas will launch an illegal missile war to provoke an IDF campaign in Gaza. Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Turkey, the UN and a vast array of NGOs and leftist governments from Norway to Brazil will support its illegal war.

Fatah will escalate its political war. Its campaign will be supported by the US, the EU, the UN and a vast array of NGOs and leftist governments.

 

The purpose of these two campaigns – which complement one another and which will likely culminate at the UN in September – is to weaken Israel militarily and politically with the shared purpose of destroying it in the fullness of time.

SO WHAT must Israel do? In the first instance, it must decide that its goal is not merely to weather this storm, but to win both of these wars.

In recent days we have been witness to a mildly entertaining fight between Defense Minister Ehud Barak and former prime minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert accused Barak of purposely failing to defeat Hamas during Operation Cast Lead. Barak, Olmert alleged, "did everything he could to defend Hamas and to prevent its downfall in the Gaza Strip."

Barak responded to Olmert's broadside by accusing the leader who failed to defeat Hizbullah in the 2006 war of "phony Churcillianism."

Ironically, of course, both are right. Both of them led Israel in war with extreme incompetence. Both refused to put together strategies for victory.

Now as the country contemplates a reprise of Cast Lead, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu must ensure that when the IDF acts, it acts decisively and emerges victorious. If this means firing Barak, then he must be fired.

The same is true in the political realm. The Palestinian offensive must be met by a counteroffensive that is informed by a strategy for victory. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman demonstrated the starting point on Sunday when he told Israel's ambassadors that peace with the Palestinians is impossible. But this is not enough.

 

Any strategy for victory in political warfare must begin with a clear recognition of reality. Peace is impossible because like Hamas, Fatah is the enemy. Its leaders and rank and file reject our right to exist. They are building a state that will be at war with us. They are avidly working to delegitimize us with the intention of destroying us together with their brothers in Hamas – whom they finance with US and other foreign aid.

 

A political war against Fatah would involve actively discrediting its members and leaders. Today Fatah is running a campaign libeling IDF soldiers and commanders as war criminals. Israel must file valid war crimes complaints against Fatah terrorists and political leaders in the international and foreign judicial bodies.

Fatah uses the UN to delegitimize us. Our delegations at all UN bodies must daily submit resolutions calling for the condemnation of the Palestinians for their efforts to criminalize us and carry out war crimes against us.

Israel must also rally its allies to its side. We must ask our friends in the US Congress to defund the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA. The PA is a terroristic and criminal syndicate that uses US taxpayer dollars to finance terrorism and pad the pockets of terror masters and apparachiks. UNRWA, which is supposed to be a welfare organization, openly acknowledges that it employs terrorists, allows its schools and camps to be used as jihad indoctrination centers, training camps and missile launching pads. The Congressional Research Service has stated that it is impossible to claim that US funds to UNRWA do not at least indirectly finance terror groups.

At home the government must stop all tax transfers to the PA. It must prohibit the deployment of the US-trained Palestinian army in Judea and Samaria. It must rebuff US pressure to curtail IDF counterterror operations in Judea and Samaria.

The government must outlaw all organizations assisting the Palestinians in their military and political warfare operations. It should support class action lawsuits against the PA by terror victims in local courts. It should withhold diplomatic visas to representatives of countries like Britain where Israeli politicians and military personnel are barred from travelling due to Palestinian lawfare operations.

The government should implement Netanyahu's open airwaves plan and encourage the launch of a private all news network along the Fox News model.

The Palestinians clearly see the coming year as a decisive year in their war to destroy Israel. The Netanyahu government needs to muster its forces to battle. These are battles we can win. But to do so, we must commit ourselves to victory.

 

caroline@carolineglick.com

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THE JERUSALEM POST

OPED

NO HOLDS BARRED: THE END OF THE RABBI AS MR. NICE GUY

BY SHMULEY BOTEACH  

 

The days of the rabbi as a moral conscience are behind us. The rabbi as irritant has been replaced with rabbi as ego-massager.

 

Talkbacks (2)

Presenting directly after me at a recent conference in Malaga, Spain, was legendary Apple Macintosh promoter Guy Kawasaki, who said something counterintuitive about marketing: Seek to polarize your audience. Never fear splitting your public into those who love you and those who don't.

It's something today's rabbis might take to heart.

As I visit Jewish communities around the world I constantly hear "our rabbi is the nicest guy" or "he's not my rabbi, he's my friend."

How sweet.

Often the comments come from people who see the rabbi in synagogue perhaps three times a year. Yes, our rabbi is amazing. He never makes us question our vacuous lives. He never lectures us to spend less on ourselves and more on the needy. Rather than rebuking us for squandering our potential on crass TV and mindless celebrity gossip, he can actually join the conversation about the latest movies.

 

Welcome to a generation where rabbis have been rendered toothless. The days of the rabbi as a moral conscience are behind us. The rabbi as irritant has been replaced with rabbi as ego-massager. The rabbi is the with-it guy with whom you watch the ball game. Yep, that's one swell guy.

Ah, you say, the Jewish community is sinking into an ever-deeper pit of material consumption and over-the-top bar mitzvas? Fear not. The rabbi knows where his bread is buttered. He's not going to anger the board by admonishing the congregation about lives bereft of Jewish values.

Which explains why rabbis have next to no influence in the Jewish world.

You heard me right.

 

GO TO any of the major Jewish conferences like AIPAC or the General Assembly and you'll see the rabbi s rolled out to say the blessing on the bread. They are seldom, if ever, consulted on issues of policy. Birthright Israel was dreamed up by two businessmen.

The rabbi is there for ceremony. We train him for five years to announce page numbers in synagogue and present your daughter with a leather-bound Bible for her bat mitzva.

But has it profited the Jews to have rabbis confined to telling a man to break a glass under the wedding canopy rather than cry out that our community is becoming more religious but less spiritual? 

 

Through our desire not to offend, we rabbis have reduced ourselves to caricatures, the vitality of our souls sandwiched into the extremely narrow bandwidth accorded to us by a community that calls on us primarily for lifecycle events.

I constantly hear myself being described as controversial, as if that's an insult for a rabbi. Yes, I am a rabbi who is loved and hated. A preparedness to be unpopular is what I have learned from Judaism. No one experienced greater rejection from the Israelites than Moses, who made uncomfortable demands. Mordechai spared the Jews a holocaust but is described as being admired only by "most of his brethren."

The Lubavitcher Rebbe saved the Jewish people from spiritual annihilation, yet his legacy's still controversial. No American was more hated in his lifetime than Abraham Lincoln, and Winston Churchill was fired right after defeating Hitler.

The most influential rabbis in the world are those like Marvin Hier of the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles, who aren't afraid to take verbal jackhammers to anti-Semites, notwithstanding the discomfort it causes less vocal Jews. 

The always-agreeable rabbis? I would mention them. But you would never have heard of them.

RABBIS MUST begin broadening their roles away from the ceremonial and toward the provocative. You're given a pulpit. Use it. Get up there on Saturday morning and belt out a sermon about the high rates of divorce in your synagogue and how you expect husbands to compliment their wives daily. Tell the women that dignified dress has always been the hallmark of the classy Jewess. Announce that outrageously lavish weddings violate Jewish values, since they make those who can't afford one feel they've let their children down.

Stop being merely a rabbi and become an organizational entrepreneur. Put on world-class debates in your synagogue that make people take a side on intermarriage, women's roles and softening support for Israel.

Last week I called three New York synagogues to partner on a public conversation I am hosting with Rick Sanchez, the CNN TV host fired for an alleged anti-Semitic comment in October. I thought he was treated appallingly. Disagree? Let's talk about it.

But only the Carlebach shul in Manhattan, forever unafraid to be controversial, agreed to host. It's no wonder that Carlebach is also the most authentically spiritual synagogue in Manhattan.

Rabbis, write weekly provocative pieces. Get under your congregants' skin. Polarize your audience. Seek influence rather than popularity.

And stand up for yourself. Rabbis deserve to be appreciated, respected, and compensated for their time. They have families too.

 

I wrote recently about how I had agreed to have my upcoming Los Angeles debate withChristopher Hitchens on the afterlife taken over by the American Jewish University after it offered to host it and add two more speakers. But when I found out that the atheist side was being paid about 10 times as much as the rabbis – even though both rabbis have national profiles – I objected, even though it led to the cancelation of my participation.

Of course rabbis should speak pro bono for worthy organizations with little funding. But if you can pay other speakers full honorariums, why should rabbis be treated differently? 

I have worked throughout my life to broaden the definition of a rabbi. No, I have not always succeeded and yes, I have made mistakes. But I have pushed the boundary because the title is too vital to be a straitjacket and the Jewish message is too defiant to be innocuous.

The writer is the international best-selling author of 24 books and in January will publishHonoring the Child Spirit: Conversations with Michael Jackson on What Parents Can Learn from their Children.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

OPED

THE PM-FM BLOW-UP: CONFRONTATION OR MECHANISM?

BY MICHAEL FRIEDSON  

 

Lieberman has served Netanyahu well by placing into the public debate cautions and concerns the prime minister himself doesn't dare to utter.

 

Talkbacks (3)

When the Netanyahu government was formed, the Israeli media was filled with predictions of how long it would be before Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman would be forced to resign to face criminal charges and whether his departure would signal a coalition re-shuffling or a new government altogether. Just shy of two years later, Lieberman remains in his post.

Based on media references, the uninformed might believe he serves as Israel's "controversial" rather than "foreign" minister. During his tenure, Lieberman has filled the role of lightning rod for international angst, espousing what his supporters see as common sense, diplo-speak-free solutions that his detractors see as racist and anti-peace. And while he has no shortage of critics, Lieberman has amassed a significant cadre of boosters along the way. Typical of the Lieberman-Netanyahu dialectic, when the prime minister speaks of the nation's commitment to the US-brokered peace process, the foreign minister will assert the futility of the talks and disparage the legitimacy of Israel's Palestinian negotiating partners. Some have suggested that far from presenting a dysfunctional point-counterpoint between prime minister and foreign minister, Lieberman has served the PM well by placing into the public debate cautions and concerns Netanyahu himself doesn't dare to utter for fear of upsetting a delicate balance with his American patrons.

AGAINST THIS background, the recent blow-up between Netanyahu and Lieberman presents intriguing permutations.

It's no-doubt irritating to the anti-Lieberman crowd that, like it or not, the Moldovan émigré offers plans rather than ad hominem attacks to back up his positions. This, of course, fuels speculation that his outbursts are more coordinated with the Prime Minster's Office than is let on. While Lieberman is often tarred with the "racist" epithet for suggesting a transfer of population, successive Israeli-Palestinian negotiating teams have accepted in-principle the idea of several Israeli settlement-blocs remaining after any final agreement inside of territory Israel acquired in the 1967-war; and that compensation would be made to the Palestinians in an equal amount of territory now located inside of pre-1967 Israel. (A detailed rendering of the concept has been painstakingly created under former Ambassador Edward Djerjian's watch at the James A. Baker III Institute at Rice University in Houston). An objective reading of Lieberman's plan adds little more than to identify the subject land to be transferred as predominantly Israeli Arab (or Palestinian) communities.

The timing of Lieberman's most recent outbursts is newfound nourishment for conspiracy theorists. They come amid a stagnant process that the American administration is desperately trying to paint with signs of life and direction. Having given up on the failed formula of cajoling (and even bribing) the parties back to the table, US interlocutors are struggling for believability and capability while the Palestinians' "Plan B" – turning to the international community for endorsement of statehood absent Israeli assent – is resonating beyond the expectations of many inside the world of international diplomacy.

 

What better time for Israel to put forth its own "Plan B" – and one that contains within it a mechanism to forestall a final agreement (which Lieberman says is "impossible" and Netanyahu arguably wants to postpone) – all while covering the points nearest and dearest to PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad: turning over more security responsibility to the Palestinians; improving Palestinians' freedom of movement; and setting the goal of economic parity between the West Bank and Israel as the trigger for eventual (and consensual) statehood.

After all, had Netanyahu offered the same suggestions, they would have been dismissed no less decisively than they are now but added to the downside would be incalculable collateral damage between Jerusalem and Washington.

Veteran Israeli political junkies will probably dismiss this entire thesis, opting instead to be entertained by predictions of the perfect political storm that will blow away the current government. But stripped of political theatre, what is laid bare could be a Rube Walker-esque system of injecting new ideas into an un-accepting culture of conventional wisdoms. And new ideas – regardless of how they enter the system – trump stagnation.

The writer is executive editor of The Media Line news agency (www.themedialine.org). He can be reached at editor@themedialine.org.

 

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THE JERUSALEM POST

OPED

WHITHER AMRAM MITZNA? WHITHER THE LABOR PARTY?

BY SUSAN HATTIS ROLEF  

 

Given the dismal state of Labor, the former party chairman will have much to consider before plunging back into the quagmire of national politics.

Talkbacks (1)

 

When the Likud found itself with only 12 Knesset seats following the 2006 elections, its leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, had few qualms about leading his party into opposition and took advantage of the years in the wilderness for rehabilitation purposes. This is what Amram Mitzna tried to do following the 2003 elections, when under his leadership the Labor Party received only 19 seats. However, the party bolted, causing Mitzna to resign as chairman, and crawled back into the government. Mitzna remained in the Knesset as a backbencher for another two years, and then resigned to become acting mayor of Yeruham.

Now Mitzna's five-year term in Yeruham has come to an end – five years in which he won much acclaim and admiration for the reforms which he instituted, his devotion, diligence and humility – it isn't everyday that a former major-general, mayor and party leader decides to devote five years of his life to save a sinking Negev town, spending five days a week in a modest two-room apartment, while foregoing the services of a driver and other amenities to which he was undoubtedly accustomed.

Even before Mitzna left Yeruham, he was contacted by various figures from within the Labor Party and Meretz, seeking to entice him back into the quagmire of national politics. Those who wish Mitzna well are advising him to keep away from Labor. "Don't even touch it with a stick," MK Eitan Cabel is reported to have warned him. Undoubtedly, Mitzna will have to carefully consider his options, given the dismal state of the political Left in general, and that of Labor in particular.

In 1981, Yossi Sarid (then still a member of the Labor Party) argued that demographics were working against the Left. The amazing fact is that he said this after the Likud had completed only one term in office, before Shas was founded (in 1984), before ever growing numbers of haredim reached voting age and a decade before more than a million immigrants, most of them with right-wing inclinations, arrived from the former Soviet Union. What Sarid said nearly 30 years ago is still valid. 

This does not mean that the trend will continue forever. Historical trends are not necessarily linear. George Orwell in 1984 and Aldous Huxley in Brave New World took a linear perspective, which suggested that what is will continue to be, only more so.

In 1984 journalist/writer Amnon Dankner executed a similar exercise in a short story he wrote (in Hebrew), "The Return of the Khanta."

In this story, Israel has turned into a fanatic ultra-religious state, in which the Arabs live in reserves, the Likud is allowed to operate under strict limitations and all that remains of the Labor movement is a dilapidated museum. Dankner's nightmarish vision might still be viewed as a not totally unlikely forecast, but not necessarily so.

UNFORTUNATELY, WHILE the excellent work performed by left-wing MKs such as Shelly Yacimovich (Labor) in the field of social legislation, Haim Oron (Meretz) in the Finance Committee and Dov Henin (Hadash) in the field of the environment, is widely appreciated, it has very little if any effect on how people vote. The same applies to Mitzna's five years in the desert. This does not mean that left-wing politicians should not continue to do their best, but simply that without some external development that will shake the foundations of society, the trends are unlikely to change.

Such developments might include a further deterioration in the country's political status in the world; a further deterioration in the economic and social conditions of large sectors of the population, accompanied by growing inequalities; financial instability (especially if Stanley Fischer decides he has had enough of us); or a massive natural catastrophe or military embroilment, with far-reaching civilian consequences.

 

This being the reality, the question is not whether Mitzna – an outspoken dove – has any chance of winning an election, since no leader of the Left today has any chance of winning an election. The question that must be asked is whether he is the right man to wean the Labor Party ministers from office (despite the positive things some of them have accomplished), to reestablish the party as a living body, with a clear-cut ideology and program, and to try to unite all the enlightened left-wing forces in the country under a single roof, that will offer the public a real alternative, if and when it is ready for it.

Another question is whether what remains of the Labor Party establishment will let him do all these things. Many will answer in the negative, and Mitzna will have to take this into account before he decides what path to take.

The writer is a former Knesset employee.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

THE FOREIGN MINISTER VERSUS THE GOVERNMENT

ISRAEL IS IN NEED OF A FOREIGN MINISTER TO REPRESENT IT BEFORE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY RATHER THAN AN OPPOSITIONIST FIGURE COMPETING IN THE GUISE OF A DIPLOMAT FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ISRAELI RIGHT WING.

 

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman took advantage of his appearance Sunday at a Foreign Ministry conference of Israeli ambassadors for one of his periodic horror shows. Lieberman, as is his habit, lashed out at Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (whom he called a liar ), at the Palestinian Authority (which he called illegitimate ) and at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (whose assurances regarding a final peace agreement Lieberman described as unrealistic ). Netanyahu, as is his own habit, avoided a confrontation with his rebellious foreign minister and sufficed with a weak response, stating that Lieberman's comments reflect the foreign minister's personal assessments and positions, and not the government's position.

Netanyahu is making a mistake. Lieberman was not speaking at a party conference or a meeting of his Yisrael Beiteinu faction. He made the comments in front of Israel's 170 senior diplomats. His audience is supposed to represent the country in the world's capitals.

 

Now they are in a bind. Should they present foreign governments with the "personal positions" of the minister to whom they report or the "government's position" as expressed by Netanyahu? Should they describe the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, as a welcome partner for peace or as a dictator who lost elections and is in power illegally? Should the contacts over improving relations with Turkey be described as a welcome development or should the Turks be vilified?

 

If Netanyahu expects to be taken seriously and his contention that he and only he expresses the government's position is to be accepted, he must dismiss Lieberman immediately. Israel is in need of a foreign minister to represent it before the international community rather than an oppositionist figure competing in the guise of a diplomat for the leadership of the Israeli right wing.

 

Netanyahu has been warning of the dangers of the delegitimization of Israel abroad, but he is refraining from the first step necessary to improve the country's image: the appointment of a foreign minister suitable for the position. Lieberman and his pronouncements only provide vindication to Israel's adversaries.

 

There is another possibility, however, and that is that Lieberman is right and the current government cannot present a plan for a final peace agreement with the Palestinians out of concern that the coalition will immediately break up. Lieberman says that Netanyahu cannot make good on his commitment to two states for two peoples, and has no chance of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. If that is the case, Netanyahu should either reconfigure his coalition or go to new elections.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

THE DICTATORSHIP OF THE PEAS

THE POWER OF THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN NETANYAHU AND THE RELIGIOUS EXTREMISTS IS AN INVITATION TO A DRAMATIC CHANGE.

BY SEFI RACHLEVSKY

 

After the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that he never could have imagined where the cycle of rabbinical incitement, combined with a sense of political endorsement and rabble-rousing, would lead. It would seem, however, that Netanyahu took from this a diametrically opposite lesson.

 

The inciting rabbis continue to receive tens of thousands of shekels a month from the Israeli government. The prime minister himself makes inflammatory remarks against "the foreigners." And the sense of support from the politicians is reinforced by the introduction of a series of racist bills whose apex is the "discrimination committee law," which threatens to turn a rabbinical edict into a state law that will promote "Jews-only" areas.

 

The "dictatorship of the peas," according to the organizational consultant Tal Gutfeld, is an organizational culture in which scattering peas on the ground leads the public and media to run around after a single pea each time, while forgetting the overall context of the situation.

 

A similar method is at play in every cycle of racism. The theme is sometimes "the Arabs," sometimes "foreigners from Africa" and sometimes "disloyal citizens." This is precisely the role played by "the Jews," "the Communists," "the homosexuals" and "the Gypsies." In effect, these are interchangeable objects for the mass conflict and the convenience of the regime. The real subject is the racist, antidemocratic incitement.

 

It is no accident that the organizers behind the demonstrations in Bat Yam, Tel Aviv's Hatikva quarter and at Kikar Zion in Jerusalem were identical.

 

The thousands that returned to this public square - as their state-funded rabbis dare to promise "civil war" from on high - shed light on the wider context. The state budget and the so-called Economic Arrangements Bill that supplements it illuminate that context fully. Likud came to power in 1977 on the wings of the "second Israel" upset. After 33 years of Likud dominance - with brief breaks, mainly under Rabin's murdered government - there are no longer two Israels. Now there are three.

 

The first Israel is the Israel of the big bucks. Wealth, connections and elite entities such as the Israel Air Force going to town on an unlimited budget. The second Israel, adjacent to the first, is the Israel of the yeshivas and the settlements. More than one million people live there, beyond the borders of the state and of the need to work. Most of the billions spread around there are not only for idleness but also for "educational work," in which the state-supported teach the majority of the country's first-graders, who are defined as Jews, in the spirit of Safed's municipal rabbi, Shmuel Eliyahu.

 

And the third Israel? Nothing is left for it.

 

Most Israelis live in the third Israel. That's where the tapped-out firefighting services are, and the penniless nonreligious school system. That's where you'll find the moaning state prosecutors, the derelict health services, the burned-out social workers. In that distant land a third of the workers bring home less than NIS 3,850 a month. What a life.

 

The power of the alliance between Netanyahu and the religious extremists is an invitation to a dramatic change. But anyone who lifts their eyes from the peas scattered on the floor will see that a forest greater than Birnam Wood can move.

 

The year 1948 was not only when "Big Brother" was created as a horror scenario but also the year a state was born. With the right leadership, the majority of the public that still wants democracy, a normal life and a declaration of independence, could turn away from the screens of the Big Brother and recognize that it deserves more. There is no reason for citizens of Israel, a wealthy country, to settle for mutual hatred and for peas. The majority could rise up against Dunsinane, the castle of the ruler whose hands will ne'er be clean.

 

There are many who cannot see from within the fire, but this could be the last budget to leave the majority of Israelis outside the castle of a decent life.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

PARTNERS IN RACISM

THE RACIST, EXTREME RIGHT WING GETS IN AND FILLS THE VACUUM LEFT BY THE NEGLIGENT SOCIAL LEFT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE - THE HATRED AND RACISM WERE ALWAYS HERE; NOW THEY ARE EMERGING MORE LOUDLY.

BY MERAV MICHAELI

 

Among those shocked at the "spread of racism" are people who claim that the residents of the neighborhoods protesting against foreigners are not racist but merely afraid, merely in distress. Indeed, the chief activist in the neighborhood of Kiryat Shalom, Eli Mizrahi, said, "There is no hatred .... We know they are suffering .... I don't understand: Why is it necessary to make it harder for us, in a place with a weak population? ... Why pile weakness on weakness?"

 

It's true; the neighborhoods are weak, with weak residents who have a hard time making a living and getting ahead. One can just read the reports on increasing poverty, declining wages and growing nutritional insecurity to know how tangible the distress is; a struggle for survival. Israel neglected these people and communities, and in recent years is only increasing their number.

 

But the distress does not contradict the racism, it goes hand in hand with it. In its early days, when Israel's character was taking shape, it determined that the white race was superior. When the people who would eventually become "Mizrahim" arrived and were brought here from North Africa, it wasn't suggested or made possible for them to take part in the government, the land, the systems of power and the media. Very quickly they became citizens, but second-class citizens subject to humiliation and inferior conditions. They were excluded from public life and official cultural life, living with the knowledge and experience of inferiority. And separation: They were put in separate housing projects and separate neighborhoods.

 

People who grow up with this experience of inferiority, when racism is directed at them, internalize that racism. When a landlord, the master, determines that white is good and black is inferior, you internalize that standard and hate yourself because you are not white. The standard of white superiority and the racism that comes with it become part of you, even when you are its victim.

 

And then you project your racism onward, to anyone who is darker and more inferior than you. Add to that the existential distress and the inflaming of baser instincts by types like extreme right-wing activist Itamar Ben-Gvir, who don't miss an opportunity to gather new believers, and you get the recent racist demonstrations.

 

After all, this is always how it works: The racist, extreme right wing gets in and fills the vacuum left by the negligent social left. But make no mistake - the hatred and racism were always here; now they are emerging more loudly.

 

The white upper classes sublimate their racism: They employ the people they perceive as inferior; they have the money to pay them (not much ) to clean for them and take care of them. Once it was the Arabs and the Mizrahim, now it's the "infiltrators" and the foreigners (in fact, upper-class women are the employers, the men don't even have any contact with them ).

 

And so this class does just what the white and racist prime minister is doing, inciting against the very things that step on the weakest points of the weak: "a concrete threat to the Jewish and democratic character of the country," and a "wave threatening Israeli workplaces". And immediately thereafter, warning Israelis "not to take the law into their own hands and not to hurt the illegal infiltrators" so he can wash his hands of the matter: They are the racists, those baboons, not him.

 

That's the way this class is, part of which belongs to the good old "left," disappointed with the peace process and party to the building of the separation fence, the roads for Jews only and acceptance committees to communities. And in the same breath, they frame the others with the charge of racism, those others from the Hatikva neighborhood and Bat Yam.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

ROCKETS ARE A TERROR WEAPON

WHAT USED TO BE A BASIC TENET OF ISRAEL'S DEFENSE DOCTRINE - THAT IN WAR, THE SAFETY OF THE CIVILIAN POPULATION MUST BE ASSURED - HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ABANDONED. NOW, MILITARY SPOKESMEN ANNOUNCE THAT IN CASE OF WAR, ISRAEL'S ENTIRE CIVILIAN POPULATION CAN EXPECT TO BE HIT BY TERRORIST ROCKETS.

BY MOSHE ARENS

 

Terrorists have used pistols and automatic rifles to kill individuals. They have used suicide bombers with pinpoint accuracy to kill groups assembled in places of entertainment. They have used aircraft to kill hundreds and thousands. But the most effective terror weapon has become the ballistic rocket. It is cheap and launched from a distance against civilian targets, allowing the terrorists to escape before the rocket lands.

 

For some years now, Israel's civilian population has been targeted by terrorist rockets: first Katyusha rockets in the north launched by Hezbollah terrorists, and then Qassam rockets in the south launched by Hamas terrorists. Initially there were tens of rockets, then there were hundreds. But now, the threat comes from tens of thousands of rockets directed at Israel's civilian population.

 

Moreover, at first only certain border areas were threatened. But now, the entire country is under the threat of terrorist rocket attacks.

 

What used to be a basic tenet of Israel's defense doctrine - that in war, the safety of the civilian population must be assured - has gradually been abandoned. Now, military spokesmen announce that in case of war, Israel's entire civilian population can expect to be hit by terrorist rockets. This is a fundamental change for the worse in Israel's strategic posture.

 

How have we allowed this intolerable situation to creep up on us? Were our leaders asleep, not aware of what was happening around us?

 

Actually, some of them are responsible for bringing about this situation. The unilateral withdrawal from the security zone in south Lebanon left Hezbollah free to greatly increase the number of ballistic rockets in its possession, while the failure of the Second Lebanon War allowed Hezbollah to take control of Lebanon, freely bring in rockets from Syria and deploy them, ready for launch against Israel, throughout Lebanon.

 

Then the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip brought Hamas to power in Gaza, and Hamas terrorists began launching rockets with impunity against the civilian population of southern Israel. That went on for years without an Israeli response.

 

Although finally, Operation Cast Lead in 2008 substantially decreased the number of rockets launched at Israel, the people in the south still receive an almost daily dose of rockets and mortar shells from terrorists in the Gaza Strip. The operation was stopped before the job was completed, and Hamas is now increasing its stock of ballistic missiles, preparing for the next round.

 

Whereas many Israelis seem to be quite concerned about what "the world" thinks of Israel, we ought to realize that many countries that are deeply worried when threatened by terrorism on their home soil seem not to care much that Israel's entire civilian population is under terrorist threat. It is not to them that we can look for a solution to this problem; this is a problem we will have to face ourselves.

 

What to do? For a long period of time, our leaders seemed to be in a state of denial.

 

First we were told that our scientists were developing ballistic missile interception systems that would in time provide a defensive umbrella over the civilian population and shoot down whatever missiles the terrorists launched. You did not have to be a rocket scientist to know this was a pipe dream. Quite aside from the great technological challenges that must be surmounted in developing such systems, the difference in cost between the cheap missile being launched and the complex system designed to intercept it is so great that this cannot possibly be a solution to the problem.

 

Then we were told we could deter the terrorists from using these weapons against us. Think again: Who is deterring whom?

 

Does that mean there is nothing to do but dig more shelters for the civilian population and supply everyone with his or her personal gas mask? Not so fast. Acceptance of this intolerable situation should not be the answer.

 

There are things that can be done to decrease the dimensions of the danger facing us and begin to swing the strategic balance in our favor. They include steps of a defensive nature, of an offensive nature and of a deterrent nature.

 

Our prime minister, our defense minister, the "septet" of seven key ministers, the cabinet, the National Security Council, the Israel Defense Forces and the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee had better put their thinking caps on and go to work. There is much to be done, and time may be short.

 

]Or else, we had better get ready for the next commission of inquiry.

 

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HAARETZ

OPINION

AND A SETTLER WILL LIVE WITH A PALESTINIAN?

ACCORDING TO ANY MEASURE - THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE, THE MUTUAL HATRED, THE DIFFERENT NEEDS - IF IT'S DESIRABLE TO SEPARATE STUDENTS FROM THE HAREDI RESIDENTS OF MEA SHE'ARIM, HOW MUCH MORE SHOULD THE ACTIVIST GROUP ATERET COHANIM BE SEPARATED FROM THE PALESTINIAN RESIDENTS OF SILWAN?

BY NIR HASSON

 

In the complicated affair of the Beit Yonatan apartment building in East Jerusalem, there is one question Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat must answer for his city's residents: What's the difference between the settlers of Beit Yonatan in the heart of the Palestinian Silwan neighborhood and a group of secular students in the heart of the ultra-Orthodox Geula neighborhood?

 

Regarding the Haredization of Jerusalem's secular neighborhoods, Barkat has an answer that he has been using since even before the elections: Every community needs neighborhoods of its own. About a month ago, Barkat's spokesman told Haaretz that "the municipality's policy is that each sector should be developed in its neighborhood ... in an effort to prevent unnecessary friction among the residents." Mixing Haredi and secular residents, says Barkat, is not proper for Jerusalem.

 

But what is proper for secular and ultra-Orthodox Jews in West Jerusalem is far more proper when the issue is settlers and Palestinians in East Jerusalem. According to any measure - the potential for violence, the mutual hatred, the different needs - if it's desirable to separate students from the Haredi residents of Mea She'arim, how much more should the activist group Ateret Cohanim be separated from the Palestinian residents of Silwan? But in Silwan, Barkat is adopting an opposite policy. In recent years he has been fighting with all his might and even paying a public price to prevent the evacuation of Beit Yonatan.

 

It's possible that Barkat is not an expert on the situation in Silwan. But his bodyguards are not happy to take him for a visit in the narrow alley that leads to Beit Yonatan, to be besieged by stones and Molotov cocktails. Yet even from city hall in Safra Square it's hard not to see that the settlers' presence in Beit Yonatan is making thousands of the city's residents suffer.

 

The Jewish presence in Silwan is concentrated in two blocs: the Elad association near the Old City walls and the Temple Mount, and the Ateret Cohanim in the very heart of Silwan, which includes Beit Yonatan, home to 10 Jewish families, and nearby Beit Hadvash, with one family. Naturally, the friction between the settlers in the village and their bodyguards on the one hand and the Palestinians on the other creates conflict. Stone-throwing and Molotov cocktails are a daily occurrence for the settlers. Nighttime police raids, dozens of children arrested and the constant smell of tear gas are the lot of the Palestinians.

 

Removing Beit Yonatan from the equation would almost certainly lead to the end of the Jewish presence in the heart of Silwan. One act that is legally mandated, politically necessary and logically humane would reduce the suffering of Silwan's residents. And thousands of people would exit the cycle of violence. Anyone who is afraid that the Palestinians would look for new centers of friction should ask himself why he is barely familiar with names such as Suwahara and Beit Sahour, Palestinian neighborhoods where no Jews live and there is little violence.

 

The question remains why the mayor insists on continuing to make his city's residents suffer. The usual political explanation is that Barkat understands that the winner of Jerusalem's next election will be the person who receives the votes of the knitted-skullcap wearers, who vote for the right-wing parties. Barkat assumes that the ultra-Orthodox won't vote for him and the secular population will, so the deciding factor will be the national religious community. Therefore he must be portrayed as a rightist to guarantee himself another term.

 

But even according to this cold logic, after innumerable court decisions, including at the High Court of Justice, which demanded the evacuation of the building, and a similar number of threatening letters from two attorneys general, Barkat could easily blame everything on the "leftists" from the Justice Ministry and the High Court.

 

]"I fought for two and a half years," Barkat would explain to his voters. "I delayed the evacuation as long as I could, but 'they' forced me." That's all he has to do, tell the truth. Having said that, with a heavy heart but wholeheartedly, he must order the evacuation. When he does so, we, the residents of Jerusalem, will make do without an answer.

 

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******************************************************************************************THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

A STEP TOWARD FAIRNESS

 

This country continues to pay a high price in both security and reputation for the Bush administration's many violations of international law at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. After more than a year of review, the Obama administration is preparing an executive order intended to resolve the situation of four dozen prisoners in the prison there who are caught in a legal limbo: they cannot be freed because they are considered a potentially serious terrorist threat, and they cannot be tried because the evidence against them is classified or was improperly obtained, often through torture.

 

The proposed order could give these prisoners a form of legal representation and a system to review their cases. It would not remove the tarnish to the American justice system of holding prisoners without trial. But it could represent a significant step forward in dealing with these cases and possibly reducing their number.

 

The order, which could be signed by the president as early as next month, would require periodic review of each prisoner's case by a kind of parole board drawn from agencies throughout the executive branch and not just the military.

 

This board would regularly assess whether a prisoner still represented a danger to public safety or was safe enough to release. The prisoners would have access to an outside lawyer, if they requested one, and would also be allowed an advocate within the system — a change from the Bush administration's policy of allowing them only a "personal representative," who was unable to help them make the case for release.

 

President Obama's plan to close Guantánamo — thwarted by Congress — had always recognized that there would be a small core of prisoners who could not be tried because of the nature of the evidence against them or the illegal way that evidence was obtained. (Others could be tried by a civilian or military court, or sent to another country or simply released.) These endless detentions clashed with the most basic legal protections of the Constitution. But judges have upheld them because of the public-safety issues involved.

 

The Obama administration deserves credit for trying to come up with a realistic legal process for these 48 prisoners, particularly after the Bush White House seemed content to hold them indefinitely with only a thin whitewash of due process. President Obama has rightly barred coercive interrogations and other forms of torture for new prisoners, and the administration needs to ensure that any future detainees are held only on admissible evidence.

 

Unfortunately, Congress seems determined to stymie every effort to close Guantánamo and begin dealing with its remaining prisoners in court. Last week, Congress passed a defense authorization bill that prohibits spending money to transfer a prisoner from Cuba to the United States, or to buy any prison facility in the United States that might hold the 48 in-limbo detainees.

 

To continue with military operations, the president will probably have to swallow his objections and sign the bill. Over the next year, he must work harder to persuade Congress not to interfere with the work of bringing fairness to the justice system at Guantánamo. As Mr. Obama rightly argued when discussing the detentions last week, "We have these core ideals that we observe — even when it's hard."

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

A GREAT DAY FOR THE RIVER

 

The General Electric Company agreed last week to finish the job of removing toxic PCBs from a 40-mile stretch of the Hudson River. This is wonderful news for the river and its aquatic life, and a tribute to the environmental groups and government officials who had spent years working and waiting for this day.

 

It also says something positive about the present leadership of G.E. Ever since the river was declared a federal Superfund site a quarter-century ago, G.E. had stubbornly argued against the cleanup. The shift in its thinking is overdue but entirely welcome.

 

The company completed Phase 1 of the project, covering a small part of the river, earlier this year. Last week, the Environmental Protection Agency gave G.E. until Jan. 14 to decide whether to proceed with the second and more demanding phase — a choice the company had under a 2005 consent decree with the government. Withdrawing from the project would have exposed G.E. to a long court fight and potentially enormous financial penalties. It could also have required the federal government to complete the job — at G.E.'s expense — which the E.P.A. is not presently equipped to do.

 

G.E.'s decision to proceed with Phase 2 is good for both its image and for the environment. The project is expected to take between five and seven years and may eventually cost more than $1 billion. Obviously, there will be glitches along the way, but G.E. has already built an impressive dredging facility near Fort Edward. And if any company has the drive, technical expertise and money to get the job done, it is this one.

 

G.E.'s historic obligation to the river is undeniable. Over three decades or so ending in 1970, G.E. discharged about 1.3 million pounds of polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, into the river. The discharges were legal at the time, but the PCBs were found to be potential carcinogens, contaminating fish and posing a health threat to humans. The 40-mile stretch where the chemicals had accumulated in greatest concentrations was designated a Superfund site, with G.E. responsible for cleaning it up.

 

The Hudson has endured repeated insults over the years, from industry, from untreated municipal sewage, from poorly planned residential development. G.E.'s pollution is surely among the worst of these. One can wish that the company had embraced its responsibility much earlier, but now that it has agreed to atone for its errors, one can only applaud.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

TEMPLE TO JUSTICE

 

¶Seventy-five years ago, the Supreme Court heard the inaugural arguments in its new building across from the United States Capitol. The architect, Cass Gilbert, designed a Greco-Roman temple, with imposing white marble columns and immense bronze doors. He intended it to be a monument to justice, and he succeeded.

 

¶The building was the project and passion of Chief Justice William Howard Taft. The former president, who had also argued before the court as solicitor general, was just as eager to transform the court's work. For 134 years, the court had met in borrowed space in the Capitol. The justices then functioned as a court of errors, correcting those of lower courts while only secondarily shaping American law.

 

¶Chief Justice Taft convinced Congress to pass the Judiciary Act of 1925, which gave the court wide discretion over its docket. The justices soon began to take cases of major social portent. In the Scottsboro case in 1932, the court overturned rape convictions on bogus charges of nine black youths because the State of Alabama had failed to provide them counsel. Throughout the 1920s, the chief justice also pushed for the new court building, and, in 1929, Congress appropriated $10 million.

 

¶In "Representing Justice," Judith Resnik and Dennis Curtis describe the Gilbert building as the major symbol of American courts' essential role in our democracy and of the Supreme Court's particular responsibility for making hard choices fairly and openly.

 

¶The record of the current Roberts court too often runs counter to this conception: its rulings tend to deny rather than promote access to justice. The sense of being closed off was reinforced in May when the court decided, for security reasons, to stop the public from entering the building through the main bronze doors. On the inside, though, the building still feels vital — a hub of judicial activity, with a great library and other fine services supporting the justices' work.

 

¶The most intimate spot is the counsel's podium. Under a 44-foot-high ceiling and flanked by marble friezes, the podium can be lost in the room's grandeur. But standing there, a lawyer arguing before the court experiences its essence. He or she sees only the justices and their potential to fulfill the promise of American law.

 

¶In 1935, the court building opened as a symbol of that promise before the court had done a lot to fulfill it. Since then, the court has handed down monumental decisions, such as Brown v. Board of Education in 1954. The unanimous ruling declaring segregation in public schools unconstitutional fully established the court as a moral force in American life.

 

¶The Roberts court needs to work harder to live up to that standard and to the vision of Taft and Gilbert reflected in the court building. For that, justice must be truly democratic, not merely reserved for the powerful.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

EDITORIAL

THE WHITE COAST

 

Call it the Boxing Day storm, the blizzard that slithered up the East Coast on the night after Christmas and into the next morning. Like other historic blizzards — 1978 and 1993 come to mind — this one carried a blunt message: stay indoors and stay put. Staying put was not hard to do on Monday. Nearly every mode of transportation in and around New York City, and much of the East Coast, had been suspended or was severely hampered. This was all the more troublesome because it caught so many holiday travelers in transit.

 

What made the storm brutal wasn't just the snow it dropped, from Alabama and Georgia all the way to Nova Scotia. It was also the wind the storm generated, swirling around an intense area of low pressure that crept north just offshore. Gusts off Cape Cod reached 80 miles per hour, and gusts of more than 60 m.p.h. were recorded in parts of New York, causing whiteout conditions on Monday morning and dangerous windchills on Monday night.

 

For all the disruption and danger this blizzard brought, it was hard not to revel in the transformation it caused, waking to a white city, a day when nearly every human agenda was superseded by snow and even the best intentions were drifted over.

 

Now comes the hard part: digging out. In New York City, that means a countdown until your street is plowed, a test of city services that reaches into the remotest corner of every borough. The snow will turn gray, and swamps of slush will form at the curbs and corners. The tangle of travelers will come untangled, and it will be time to turn to the new year and see what storms and sunny, melting days early 2011 will bring.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

THE DATA AND THE REALITY

BY BOB HERBERT

 

I keep hearing from the data zealots that holiday sales were impressive and the outlook for the economy in 2011 is not bad.

 

Maybe they've stumbled onto something in their windowless rooms. Maybe the economy really is gathering steam. But in the rough and tumble of the real world, where families have to feed themselves and pay their bills, there are an awful lot of Americans being left behind.

 

A continuing national survey of workers who lost their jobs during the Great Recession, conducted by two professors at Rutgers University, offers anything but a rosy view of the economic prospects for ordinary Americans. It paints, instead, a portrait filled with gloom.

 

More than 15 million Americans are officially classified as jobless. The professors, at the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, have been following their representative sample of workers since the summer of 2009. The report on their latest survey, just out this month, is titled: "The Shattered American Dream: Unemployed Workers Lose Ground, Hope, and Faith in Their Futures."

 

Over the 15 months that the surveys have been conducted, just one-quarter of the workers have found full-time jobs, nearly all of them for less pay and with fewer or no benefits. "For those who remain unemployed," the report says, "the cupboard has long been bare."

 

These were not the folks being coldly and precisely monitored, classified and quantified as they made their way to the malls to kick-start the economy. These were among the many millions of Americans who spent the holidays hurting.

 

As the report states: "The recession has been a cataclysm that will have an enduring effect. It is hard to overstate the dire shape of the unemployed."

 

Nearly two-thirds of the unemployed workers who were surveyed have been out of work for a year or more. More than a third have been jobless for two years. With their savings exhausted, many have borrowed money from relatives or friends, sold possessions to make ends meet and decided against medical examinations or treatments they previously would have considered essential.

 

Older workers who are jobless are caught in a particularly precarious state of affairs. As the report put it:

 

"We are witnessing the birth of a new class — the involuntarily retired. Many of those over age 50 believe they will not work again at a full-time 'real' job commensurate with their education and training. More than one-quarter say they expect to retire earlier than they want, which has long-term consequences for themselves and society. Many will file for Social Security as soon as they are eligible, despite the fact that they would receive greater benefits if they were able to delay retiring for a few years."

 

There is a fundamental disconnect between economic indicators pointing in a positive direction and the experience of millions of American families fighting desperately to fend off destitution. Some three out of every four Americans have been personally touched by the recession — either they've lost a job or a relative or close friend has. And the outlook, despite the spin being put on the latest data, is not promising.

No one is forecasting a substantial reduction in unemployment rates next year. And, as Motoko Rich reported in The Times this month, temporary workers accounted for 80 percent of the 50,000 jobs added by private sector employers in November.

 

Carl Van Horn, the director of the Heldrich Center and one of the two professors (the other is Cliff Zukin) conducting the survey, said he was struck by how pessimistic some of the respondents have become — not just about their own situation but about the nation's future. The survey found that workers in general are increasingly accepting the notion that the effects of the recession will be permanent, that they are the result of fundamental changes in the national economy.

 

"They're losing the idea that if you are determined and work hard, you can get ahead," said Dr. Van Horn. "They're losing that sense of optimism. They don't think that they or their children are going to fare particularly well."

 

The fact that so many Americans are out of work, or working at jobs that don't pay well, undermines the prospects for a robust recovery. Jobless people don't buy a lot of flat-screen TVs. What we're really seeing is an erosion of standards of living for an enormous portion of the population, including a substantial segment of the once solid middle class.

 

Not only is this not being addressed, but the self-serving, rightward lurch in Washington is all but guaranteed to make matters worse for working people. The zealots reading the economic tea leaves see brighter days ahead. They can afford to be sanguine. They're working.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

THE SIDNEY AWARDS, PART II

BY DAVID BROOKS

 

The Sidney Awards go to some of the best magazine essays of the year. The one-man jury is biased against political essays, since politics already gets so much coverage. But the jury is biased in favor of pieces that illuminate the ideas and conditions undergirding political events.

 

For example, there's been a lot of talk this year about trying to reduce corruption in Afghanistan, Iraq and across the Middle East. But in a piece in The American Interest called "Understanding Corruption," Lawrence Rosen asks: What does corruption mean?

 

For Westerners, it means one set of things: bribery and nepotism, etc. But when Rosen asks people in the Middle East what corruption is, he gets variations on an entirely different meaning: "Corruption is the failure to share any largess you have received with those with whom you have formed ties of dependence."

 

Our view of corruption makes sense in a nation of laws and impersonal institutions. But, Rosen explains, "Theirs is a world in which the defining feature of a man is that he has formed a web of indebtedness, a network of obligations that prove his capacity to maneuver in a world of relentless uncertainty." So to not give a job to a cousin is corrupt; to not do deals with tribesmen is corrupt. Reducing corruption in Afghanistan is not a question of replacing President Hamid Karzai with a more honest man. It's a deeper process.

 

In earlier ages, people consulted oracles. We consult studies. We rely on scientific findings to guide health care decisions, policy making and much else. But in an essay called "The Truth Wears Off" in The New Yorker, Jonah Lehrer reports on something strange.

 

He describes a class of antipsychotic drugs, whose effectiveness was demonstrated by several large clinical trials. But in a subsequent batch of studies, the therapeutic power of the drugs appeared to wane precipitously.

 

This is not an isolated case. "But now all sorts of well-established, multiply confirmed findings have started to look increasingly uncertain," Lehrer writes. "It's as if our facts were losing their truth: claims that have been enshrined in textbooks are suddenly unprovable."

 

The world is fluid. Bias and randomness can creep in from all directions. For example, between 1966 and 1995 there were 47 acupuncture studies conducted in Japan, Taiwan and China, and they all found it to be an effective therapy. There were 94 studies in the U.S., Sweden and Britain, and only 56 percent showed benefits. The lesson is not to throw out studies, but to never underestimate the complexity of the world around.

 

There's been a lot written about Detroit, but Charlie LeDuff's essay "Who Killed Aiyana Stanley-Jones" in Mother Jones packs a special power. It starts with a killing of a little girl in a police raid, then pulls back to the idiotic murder of a teenage boy that precipitated the raid — that murder victim may have smirked at his killer for riding a moped.

 

Then LeDuff touches on the decay all around — a city in which 80 percent of the eighth graders are unable to do basic math, the crime lab was closed because of ineptitude, 500 fires are set every month and 50 percent of the drivers are operating without a license.

 

LeDuff, a former reporter for The Times, travels from broad context to the specific details — from the collapse of the industrial economy to the fact that a local minister was left with the girl's $4,000 funeral costs, claiming the girl's father ran off with the donations.

 

In an essay in Foreign Affairs called "The Demographic Future," Nicholas Eberstadt describes the coming global manpower decline. Over the next two decades, for example, there will be a 30 percent decline in the number of Chinese between the ages of 15 and 29 — 100 million fewer workers.

 

Tyler Cowen wrote a superb, counterintuitive piece on income inequality for The American Interest called "The Inequality That Matters." It's filled with interesting observations. For example, the inequality that really bites is local — the guy down the street who can spend three bucks more for a case of beer, not Bill Gates's billions across the country.

 

But his main insight is this. Smart people, especially in the financial sector, now have tremendous incentives to take great risks. If the risks fail, they still have millions in the bank. If the risks pay off, they get enormously rich. The result is a society with more inequality and more financial instability. It's not clear we know how to address this phenomenon.

 

Finally, two historical essays deserve mention. Adam Gopnick wrote a fresh piece on Winston Churchill for The New Yorker called "Finest Hours." Anne Applebaum wrote a chilling essay on central Europe in the 20th century called "The Worst of the Madness" in The New York Review of Books. (The online version of this column has links to the essays.)

 

I've been doing these awards for several years now. This was the richest year, with the best essays.

 

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THE NEW YORK TIMES

OPED

THE ROAD FROM SECESSION TO SUMTER

 

¶One hundred and fifty years ago, Americans went to war with themselves. In late October, The Times began an online series called Disunion, at nytimes.com/disunion, which revisits and reconsiders that perilous period — using contemporary accounts, diaries, interactive maps, images, a timeline and historical assessments to follow the Civil War as it unfolded. Here are excerpts from the story so far.

¶NOV. 7, 1860 Immediately after Lincoln was elected, Americans from all walks of life wrote to their president-elect to express their feelings about where the country was headed. These letters (like the one below) present a remarkable documentary portrait of a nation at a crossroads.

 

¶— TED WIDMER, from "Lincoln's Mailbag"

 

¶NOV. 9-15, 1860 The day after Lincoln's election, revolutionary fever breaks out in South Carolina. Nearly all of the state's federal officials resign, and the state legislature speedily passes a bill authorizing a state convention to meet on Dec. 20 to consider, and if it desires, to authorize, secession.

 

¶In the Deep South, where the idea of disunion is taken most seriously, three main groups of secessionists can be identified. There are those who are talking about talking; those who are talking about walking; and those who have already stopped talking and started walking.

 

¶South Carolina is the home of the ultras, men like William Yancey and Robert Barnwell Rhett, and they all belong to the third group. For two decades Yancey and Rhett have shouted secession whenever so much as an ominous rain cloud drifted down from the North. Lately, however, they have been joined by men of a different sort, prominent men of wealth and influence, grandees who heretofore have disdained agitation. This past week, these men succeeded in inflaming passions that might well have been safely jawed to death.

 

¶— JAMIE MALANOWSKI, from "A Superabundance of Velocity"

 

¶NOV. 16, 1860 On fine afternoons that week, throngs of strollers promenaded on Canal Street in New Orleans. The thoroughfare, one newspaper reported, "was crowded with an unusually large and brilliant array of the beauty of our city — the stately matrons and lovely damsels of the South. What gave peculiar interest to this grand display of beauty, grace and elegance, was the exhibition of blue [secessionist] cockades worn on the shoulders of nearly all the ladies who appeared in public. All our ladies are for the South, and for resistance to the aggressions, outrage and insult of an abolition dynasty. No man will merit their favor who is not ready to sacrifice everything for that cause."

 

¶— ADAM GOODHEART, from "Female Partisans"

 

¶NOV. 23, 1860 Between his election and his inauguration, Lincoln withdrew into intractable official silence, even as the union crumbled.

 

¶Lincoln's approach was very much intentional. Saying nothing, he believed, did the least damage to his fragile winning coalition of moderate Westerners and abolitionist Easterners — a coalition that yet might be called upon to resist rebellion by force. He was "not unmindful of the uneasiness which may exist in many parts of the country," he privately conceded. But "nothing is to be gained by fawning around the 'respectable scoundrels' who got it up."

 

¶— HAROLD HOLZER, from "The Sound of Lincoln's Silence"

¶NOV. 25, 1860 The story of how Lincoln decided to let his chin whiskers sprout has been retold so many times that it's almost legendary: Grace Bedell, an 11-year-old in upstate New York, wrote him a letter a few weeks before the election. "I have got four brothers," she told the Republican candidate, "and part of them will vote for you anyway and if you let your whiskers grow I will try and get the rest of them to vote for you. You would look a great deal better, for your face is so thin. All the ladies like whiskers and they would tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president."

 

¶Lincoln replied: "As to the whiskers, having never worn any, do you not think people would call it a piece of silly affectation if I were to begin it now?" Just days after his election, though, he made up his mind. "Billy," he supposedly told his barber, "let's give them a chance to grow."

 

¶— ADAM GOODHEART, from "Lincoln: A Beard Is Born"

 

¶NOV. 23-29, 1860 President James Buchanan this week changed his tune, after receiving a request for reinforcements from Maj. Robert Anderson, his newly appointed commander of the three federal installations — Fort Moultrie, Fort Sumter and Castle Pinckney — in Charleston. Assessing the situation — the general secession fever, the evidently vulnerable condition of the dilapidated Moultrie, the threatening presence of the harbor hoodlums and wharf rats who menace the soldiers as they go about their duties, the mysterious boats full of armed men that prowl the harbor at night — Anderson implored Washington for more men. "The storm may break upon us at any moment," he told the administration. "The garrison is so weak as to invite an attack."

 

¶Buchanan ordered the secretary of war, John Floyd, to send more troops. Floyd, the former governor of Virginia who is, in turns, pro-union, pro-slavery and an appeaser of the secessionists, has ignored the order, for although he wishes to protect the troops, he feels sending reinforcements would provoke violence, which of course would be illegal, although secession is South Carolina's right.

 

¶— JAMIE MALANOWSKI, from "Off the Record, Behind the Scenes"

¶NOV. 30, 1860 The knock came after dark. Hastening to answer it, the old Quaker found a familiar figure in the doorway: a dark-skinned woman, barely five feet tall, with a kerchief wrapped around her head.

¶Five others followed her: a man and woman, two little girls and, cradled in a basket, the swaddled form of a tiny infant, uncannily silent and still.

 

¶As politicians throughout the country debated secession and young men drilled for war, Harriet Tubman had been plotting a mission into the heart of slave territory. The group had come from the Eastern Shore of Maryland, but even here, in Wilmington, Del., it was not yet out of danger: Delaware was still officially a slave state. But at last, on the night of Nov. 30, she reached the house of the elderly Quaker, Thomas Garrett, a leading Underground Railroad "conductor" who would smuggle the Ennals family to relative safety in Philadelphia.

 

¶— ADAM GOODHEART, from "Moses' Last Exodus"

 

¶DEC. 19, 1860 "Today it is hoped we shall get the old Lady South Carolina out of the crowd without damaging her hoops or tearing her dress," wrote the planter John S. Palmer to his wife. The following afternoon, Palmer and other delegates who had assembled in the South Carolina city voted 169 to 0 for secession. That evening thousands flocked to Institute Hall in downtown Charleston to witness the formal signing of the "Ordinance of Secession." Afterward "cannon were fired," reported The Charleston Mercury, "and bright triumph was depicted on every countenance."

 

¶On this Dec. 20, exactly 150 years later, Confederate enthusiasts sought to relive the festivities with an elaborate Secession Gala. Three hundred celebrants — dozens decked out like cavalier planters and Lady South Carolina — packed Charleston's Gaillard Auditorium to celebrate the fateful vote. One could almost be forgiven for thinking the whole town had gone back in time.

 

¶— BLAIN ROBERTS and ETHAN J. KYTLE, from "Dancing Around History"

 

¶DEC. 26, 1860 The rowers strained at their oars, gasping with exertion, their breath visible in the chill night air of Charleston Harbor. By good fortune, the water lay almost flat, with just the slightest rolling swell, and each pull drew them several lengths farther on.

¶None of those men knew that their brief but perilous transit would end up changing American history. Their only thought was of swiftly and silently reaching their destination, barely a mile across the channel: Fort Sumter.

 

¶From the ramparts of Sumter a signal gun rang out, its sharp crack echoing across the water. The detachment back at Fort Moultrie would know that their comrades had arrived at their destination.

 

¶As for the secessionists over in Charleston, they would soon awaken to a very unpleasant surprise. "They must have looked upon us as a mouse to play with and eat up at leisure," one of the Union officers gloated. "But we gave the cat the slip, however, and are now safe in our hole."

 

¶At the two forts, men labored through the night, bracing for the fast-approaching moment when that startled cat would unsheathe its claws. Midnight passed and dawn approached: one of the last days in a waning year.

 

¶— ADAM GOODHEART, from "The Night Escape"

 

¶Ted Widmer is the director of the John Carter Brown Library at Brown. Jamie Malanowski is the author of the novel "The Coup." Adam Goodheart, the author of the forthcoming "1861: The Civil War Awakening," is the director of the Starr Center for the Study of the American Experience at Washington College. Harold Holzer is the chairman of the Abraham Lincoln Bicentennial Foundation and the co-editor of "The New York Times Complete Civil War." Blain Roberts and Ethan J. Kytle teach history at California State University, Fresno, and are writing a book about slavery and public memory in Charleston, S.C.

 

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USA TODAY

EDITORIAL

OUR VIEW ON TOBACCO REGULATION: NATION MUST DO MORE TO KEEP KIDS OUT OF SMOKING PIPELINE

 

Ever wonder how the tobacco industry has survived a decades-long campaign by public health advocates and government to stamp out the nation's deadliest habit? One word: addiction.

Now, thanks to a U.S. Surgeon General's report released this month, the public can find out a lot more about how potent cigarette addiction really is and how it has changed over the years.

 

"Cigarettes today deliver more nicotine and deliver it quicker than ever before," says aconsumer pamphlet issued with the report. This change is especially dangerous to adolescents, whose bodies are more sensitive to nicotine and who are more easily addicted than adults — which may explain why the industry picks up about 1,000 new teen smokers a day. And why the vast majority of smokers pick up the habit by the time they're 19.

 

None of this is an accident: "The additives and chemicals that tobacco companies put in cigarettes may have helped make them more addictive," says the pamphlet.

 

Nobody knows exactly when these changes occurred because the public isn't privy to the industry's methods. But the 700-page report for the first time pulls together decades of research, and some internal industry documents, to paint a picture of how the content and design of cigarettes have changed over the years.

 

The chemical form of nicotine has been altered so it is delivered to the brain more rapidly and effectively, setting off the craving for more. This "free nicotine" would make the inhaled smoke harsher, perhaps discouraging smokers, especially new ones. But the industry has found ways to modify that effect.

 

Filter holes and other types of ventilation make it easier to inhale more deeply. Sugar and moisture enhancers reduce the burning sensation, making smoking seem smoother. Even a change in the size of microscopic particles in smoke impacts how effectively nicotine is delivered, which can intensify the quick buzz that smokers want.

 

Suffice it to say, this is not your father's cigarette.

 

The report couldn't have come at a better time. The dramatic, nearly decade-long decline in teen smoking has halted among younger teens, and there's evidence that more of them may be taking up the habit, according to the University of Michigan's latest survey in high schools. Smoking among 10th-graders, which peaked in 1996 at 30.4%, had dropped by 2008 to 12.3%. Since then, it has begun to rise slightly, this year to 13.6%.

 

It's devastating to see more teenagers take up smoking despite years of public smoking bans, ad campaigns aimed at them and tobacco tax hikes that make cigarettes too expensive for some young people.

 

So what's to be done?

 

For starters, states that have squandered the opportunity to effectively use their share of the multibillion-dollar tobacco settlement fund should do so now, directing that money toward programs to protect kids from smoking, help adults quit and prevent deadly diseases. The few states that have used the money productively, such as Maine and Washington, have seen significant progress. But even these states have begun to cut back.

 

The federal government — with new authority granted by a 2009 law — has other weapons, such as graphic warning labels, and appears to be off to a fast start in proposing them.

 

If the nation slacks off in the campaign against smoking, a whole new generation will get hooked, and 440,000 Americans will continue to die each year.

 

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USA TODAY

EDITORIAL

OPPOSING VIEW ON TOBACCO REGULATION: CONCERNED SMOKERS CAN QUIT

BY JAMES E. DILLARD III

 

For nearly a decade, Altria Group and Philip Morris USA actively supported federal regulation of tobacco products. Philip Morris USA agrees with the overwhelming medical and scientific consensus that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer, heart disease, emphysema and other serious diseases in smokers.

 

We cannot ignore the health issues associated with tobacco use and its implications for consumers and society as a whole. At the same time, as Congress confirmed by passing legislation that gave the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory authority over tobacco products, society has decided to continue to permit the sale of these products to adults and to leave decisions about their use to those adults.

 

Much of the recent Surgeon General's report presents information that has been common knowledge for many years. There is no safe cigarette, and nothing about the design of our cigarettes or the packaging is meant to convey that one cigarette is safe or safer than another. If smokers are concerned about the health risks of cigarette smoking, the best thing to do is quit.

 

The company supports a variety of efforts to communicate the health risks of tobacco use, prevent underage use and connect smokers who wish to quit with expert cessation information. As an example, since 2004, Philip Morris USA has placed information about the QuitAssist resource on more than 1 billion cigarette packs in the United States via miniature brochures.

 

Tobacco products and tobacco companies have been a source of considerable conflict and controversy over the years. We believe that FDA regulation, thoughtfully implemented, can contribute to resolving many of the issues that concern the public, our consumers, the public health community, and our tobacco companies, including a framework for guidance on harm-reduction efforts.

 

In addition, we hope that, as the FDA continues to implement federal regulation of tobacco products, all stakeholders on this issue can move beyond these conflicts to a regulatory system that offers real and practical solutions.

 

James E. Dillard III is senior vice president, regulatory affairs, for Altria Client Services.

 

R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. and Lorillard Tobacco Co. declined to provide Opposing Views.

 

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USA TODAY

OPINION

PRESIDENTS OFTEN STIFF-ARM PARTY LOYALISTS

BY ROSS K. BAKER

 

The word "triangulation" is very much in the air these days despite the fact that the practice, if not the term itself, has been around for a long time. It's what presidents do when they face a crisis, usually a midterm election in which their party fares badly and they are forced to deal with the opposition party or face the remainder of their term barren of accomplishment. Next week, a wave of Republican lawmakers will retake much of the nation's Capitol, and President Obama's era of triangulation will be fully underway. Obama had already tweaked Democratic Party loyalists on everything from escalating the war inAfghanistan to not insisting on the public option in the health care reform legislation. Yet the compromise on the Bush tax cuts has been seen as the final straw among many of the formerly devoted.

 

Even FDR did it

 

History is replete with presidents jilting their base for political positioning. What typically happens is that the president forsakes his nominal supporters within his own party, a group that often consists of his party's ideological base.

 

Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a serious crisis in 1938 when the country began to slide back into depression. His popularity began to slip dangerously as he faced the midterm election. While he had asserted his mastery over Congress in his first term, that dominance was a product of two things: the belief among members that only a strong presidency could rescue the country from disaster, and FDR's cultivation of the powerful chairmen of congressional committees who, as conservative Southerners, were not his natural supporters. Accordingly, he disappointed those ardent New Dealers who looked to the White House to push for the most progressive legislation. FDR's triangulation did not involve cooperation with Republicans, a relatively powerless minority in both chambers, but with his own party's right wing. Appeasing the party's conservatives infuriated congressional liberals, especially Democrats in the House who were in a state of revolt so severe that — in a gesture that Barack Obama would duplicate 72 years later with his dispatch of Vice President Biden to soothe the party rank-and-file — FDR sent his highest-level aide Harry Hopkins to quell the flames but gave the liberals nothing.

 

It might be concluded from this episode that triangulation, a term first used to describe Bill Clinton's marriage of convenience with Republicans, is a device used only by Democrats, but the practice of presidents ditching their most passionate supporters to cut a deal with the opposition is blessedly bipartisan.

 

Dwight D. Eisenhower's second midterm election in 1958 was one of the most disastrous for a 20th century president. Democrats, in the Congress that would convene in January 1959, would outnumber Republicans by almost two-to-one in both houses. But instead of lamenting his party's epic defeat, he confessed to an aide, "I don't care too much about the congressional elections." The reason for Eisenhower's blithe dismissal of the GOP's electoral calamity was because of an informal alliance he had established with conservative Southern Democrats, especially the two Democratic leaders in Congress, House Speaker Sam Rayburn and Senate Majority Leader Lyndon B. Johnson, both Texans. When questioned about how he thought he could get along with Democrats after accusing them of being "left-wing extremists," Eisenhower told a reporter that he had not read his speeches carefully enough and that his swipe at the Democrats applied only to the big "spender-wing" of the party. So while GOP leaders in the House and Senate were sifting through the ashes of their great defeat, their president was chatting amiably with the arsonists.

 

Ronald Reagan, a president venerated by Republicans, never let loyalty to his most devoted followers prevent him from striking deals with the opposition. The 1986 tax reform, which is now so much in the news because it is cited as a precedent for President Obama's plan to restructure the tax code, was bitterly opposed by congressional Republicans who saw the reform legislation as a tax increase in disguise. But Reagan was more in agreement with powerful congressional Democrats like Senate Finance Committee Chairman Russell Long and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski. Reagan forced his allies in Congress to acquiesce to the bipartisan deal.

 

Indifference as a tactic

 

And then there's presidential indifference to loyal constituencies, often seen by Republican presidents who time and again disappoint the social conservatives who counted on them to fiercely oppose abortion and same-sex marriage.

 

Reagan never bothered to appear in person at the anti-Roe v. Wade rallies in Washington, D.C.; rather, his words of encouragement were recorded.

 

George W. Bush drew the ire of religious conservatives by not speaking up forcefully against gay marriage. Both Republican presidents cared more about not alienating independent voters than ingratiating themselves with supporters who had no other place to turn.

 

Presidents can be remarkably cold-blooded when it comes to their political salvation, especially when the choice is between a major legislative accomplishment that might rescue them in a moment of political peril and throwing a lifeline to their loyal supporters. Rather than founder, the presidential ship more often will leave the sinking rats.

 

Ross K. Baker is a political science professor at Rutgers University and a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.

 

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USA TODAY

OPINION

ON MY BUCKET LIST: O.J., GEORGE W. BUSH

BY DEWAYNE WICKHAM

 

I'm not a big anniversary person, but 2010 is a benchmark in my journalism career that has me thinking as much about the future as the past.

 

It was 25 years ago that I started contributing to the opinion page of this and many otherGannett newspapers — a job that has allowed me to occupy space in some of the most-prized real estate in the newspaper industry. And what a quarter of a century it has been.

 

I ate dinner with Fidel Castro in Havana's Palace of the Revolution; had lunch with L. Douglas Wilder, the nation's first black elected governor, in a room where Confederate PresidentJefferson Davis used to eat his meals; and I sat in the Cabinet room of the White House sipping soda and nibbling low-calorie cookies with President Bill Clinton.

 

I flew with Secretary of State Warren Christopher on the plane that returned deposed Haitian President Jean Bertrand-Aristideto Haiti and was a member of the press corps that accompanied Nelson Mandela on an eight-city tour of the United States a few months after his release from a 27-year imprisonment in South Africa.

 

I was a guest on Oprah's show twice. And in 1991, I interviewed George Wallace, the former Alabama governor who said in his 1963 inaugural address "segregation today ... segregation tomorrow ... segregation forever." Wallace told me his racism was driven by the politics of his state, not a feeling in his heart.

 

I was in Paris the day candidate Barack Obama met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee Palace, and in the Denver stadium the night Obama accepted the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

 

But with all these ringside seats, there remains much I want to see and do before my column is put out to pasture. Here's my bucket list.

 

•I want to interview O.J. Simpson, who is serving a 33-year sentence in a Nevada prison for armed robbery and kidnapping. I covered his 1995 double-murder trial in Los Angeles. While others still debate Simpson's guilt, I want to talk to him about his penchant for whistling If I Only Had a Brain during subsequent scraps with the law. I suspect getting to the bottom of that question will reveal more about the former NFL superstar than the many books written about him.

 

•I want to spend a couple days with former president George W. Bush talking about the things that interest him now that he's not The Decider. I want to know what the afterlife of the American presidency is like. And I want to know what he worries about now that he no longer gets a daily briefing on the real and perceived threats to this country.

 

•I want to interview Graca Machel, a leading political activist in Africa and advocate for children's and women's rights, who married two African heads of state. Her first husband, former Mozambique President Samora Machel, was the unelected leader of a one-party socialist state. Her current husband, Nelson Mandela, served one term as president of a multiparty democracy in South Africa that he had a big hand in creating. I want to know what attracted her to each — one who brutally suppressed his enemies, the other who was instrumental in healing his country's wounds.

 

These are the conversations that top my to-do list — the truth and understanding I want to pursue — as I begin this next phase of my journalism career.

 

DeWayne Wickham writes on Tuesdays for USA TODAY.

 

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TIMES FREE PRESS

OPINION

STALEMATE IN FLAWED PROCESS

 

We could see this coming. When crude back-room politics trumps public processes and public accountability, politicians invariably stumble, make bad decisions, or make no decisions at all. In this light, the County Commission's 4-4 deadlock Monday on the appointment of a successor to County Mayor Claude Ramsey was almost predictable.

 

The County Commission has blatantly, shamefully shunned the opportunity of having a public process to interview the nine candidates who are seeking an interim appointment to the seat that Ramsey will leave vacant when he steps down Jan. 11 to become incoming governor Bill Haslam's chief deputy. Commissioners wrongly decided not to hold public interviews of the candidates, or to allow a public forum or debate among their top choices.

 

Commissioner Chester Bankston, for example, claimed he didn't want to see the appointment process "turn into a public circus." (Translation: He had already committed to Ramsey's wish to see his cousin, Mike Carter, get the job.)

 

Instead, commissioners opted for an insider circus -- clubby, quick, private interviews of the candidates. And when they convened in their needlessly rushed meeting Monday morning to appoint a successor to Ramsey (just 18 days after Ramsey had announced his decision to resign his office, leaving unused more than 100 days of their lawful 120 days to make a choice) Chairman Fred Skillern simply asked for nominations.

 

He got two: County Commissioner Jim Coppinger, formerly chief of the Chattanooga Fire Department, and Carter, a former Sessions Court judge who has served as a special assistant to Ramsey for most of the past year.

 

Without any discussion of the candidates' merits, views or vision, Skillern called for a vote. When each of the two got four votes, he adjourned for a 10-minute recess to let commissioners reconsider their votes -- possibly in further private discussions in violation of the Sunshine Law -- and then called for another vote. When each candidate got the same four votes, Skillern adjourned the meeting until Jan. 5 for a third vote.

 

In this dark void, the public can have no idea of the public goals, priorities, agenda and vision that either candidate (or any of the remaining seven) would bring to the office of the county's most powerful public official. Voters also can't know what promises, if any, the candidates have made to individual commissioners to secure their vote. Neither do they have a platform on which to rally or advocate in a candidate's behalf.

 

All the public now knows is that for some obvious but unspecified political reasons, a divided commission has narrowed its choices to two of the nine announced candidates, and voters eventually will be stuck with the winner, who will represent them, for better or worse, until the next countywide election in 2012.

 

The job contenders themselves are caught in the middle of this deeply flawed process. Both are assumed to be somewhat qualified for the job because of their current roles in county government. But because their qualifications, views and agenda have not been reviewed, scrutinized or tested in a public forum, neither has mustered the sort of broad constituency that would compel supporters, or the commission, to advocate convincingly for their appointment.

 

There's still time to remedy this shameful process. But unless the voters who are being denied a voice and shut out of the process raise a ruckus, crude political power will win. All Hamilton County voters deserve more respect and better treatment.

 

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TIMES FREE PRESS

OPINION

THANKS FROM THE NEEDIEST

STAFF REPORT(CONTACT)

 

Every year, beginning during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the Chattanooga Times Free Press publishes its Neediest Cases appeal. And every year, readers and community members respond liberally. This year has been no different, and we extend a heartfelt "thank you" to all who contributed.

 

The pattern, well established over the course of more than nine decades, is familiar. Individuals, families, civic and social organizations, businesses and others made contributions. Many of the gifts celebrated, commemorated or honored friends, co-workers and family. Other gifts memorialized loved ones or were sent in lieu of gifts or seasonal cards.

 

As has long been the custom, each gift to the Neediest Cases Fund is acknowledged in the pages of the newspaper. Each is appreciated for the spirit of thoughtfulness for fellow residents it demonstrates. And, again following long-established practice, each gift will be used wisely by the Partnership for Families, Children and Adults, the most comprehensive social services agency in the area.

 

Click here to donate or find out more about the Neediest Cases Fund

 

The donations provide the agency with a beneficial source of supplementary funds for the coming year. It lets the Partnership assist individuals and families in need. Many times, those needs don't match the rules set forth by the public and private sources that provide the Partnership with the bulk of its funding. Money from the Neediest Cases allows the agency to provide help to meet demonstrable need when there is no other means of assistance readily available.

 

The Neediest Cases appeal officially concludes on Christmas Day, but the newspaper will continue to acknowledge late arriving, tax-deductible contributions through year's end. Gifts can be mailed to The Chattanooga Times Free Press, P.O. Box 1447, Chattanooga, TN 37401-1447, or brought to the newspaper's office at 400 E. 11th St. Donations also can be made online at timesfreepress.com/neediest cases.

 

The large number of gifts this year to help those in need is soul-stirring. It brings a feeling of satisfaction to all involved and once again offers evidence of the magnanimous heart and good will of our readers and others in the community.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

FROM THE BOSPHORUS: STRAIGHT - SECURITY IS THE JOB OF THE STATE

 

Earlier this month, the government did a wise thing and pulled a law that would have liberalized gun ownership off of the legislative calendar. The law would have increased the number of firearms an individual can legally own and reduced current age restrictions, among other steps. Public outcry prompted the U-turn and consideration of the legislation has been postponed to a date beyond general elections scheduled for June.

 

When the law comes back, we would hope it returns with a broader focus on public security and safety. Among other things, it should include regulation of private security guards, arguably the biggest growth industry in Turkey.

 

Private security is certainly a legitimate line of work. Often the most benign factors drive decisions to employ private security services, such as reduced insurance costs for commercial properties that keep a 24-hour watch on property. And certainly many security firms are responsible and employ thorough professionals.

 

But just as the growing reflex within some segments of society to bear weaponry as a matter of routine is worrisome, so is the meteoric rise in employment of security personnel, some of whom are equipped with firepower rivaling that used by police or even the military.

 

As we reported yesterday, Turkey now has about 170,000 private security guards. This is a number larger than the militaries of 134 countries, including the standing armies of Poland, Ukraine and Algeria. If one counts the number of people who have received licenses as security guards, 415,000, we are looking at a force almost equivalent to Turkey's active military.

 

This compares with a national police force whose numbers are estimated at about 50,000. In recent years, the quality, standards, education and training of police has been greatly improved. Numerous institutions for advanced police training have opened along with expansion of collaborative training and exchange with police institutions in Europe.

 

But as we see the professionalism of police increasing, the expansion of this ill-defined sector of loosely regulated "parapolice" is worrisome. So are proposals to effectively "privatize" security in areas hitherto under government jurisdiction such as dams and bridges.

 

Many countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Switzerland prohibit private security from carrying firearms. In others, rigorous systems of background checks and training are required.

 

In our view, public safety, along with health and education, are primary functions of the state. In all of these areas private services can play a supportive role. But a comprehensive outsourcing of these services is an abandonment of government responsibility. Review of regulations, along with intelligent consideration of gun ownership and other security-related issues, should be a legislative priority in 2011.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

TEACHING OF A MOTHER TONGUE, TEACHING IN A MOTHER TONGUE

CÜNEYT ÜLSEVER

 

Among the many key issues cited in a draft released by the Democratic Society Congress, or DTK, during a "Democratic Self-Government Workshop" last week, I was mostly interested in the language issue.

 

I am of the opinion that language is the far most important factor that builds nations and keeps nations together! The following remark is included in the draft:

 

"By the removal of obstacles in front of Kurdish being used in the public domain [in official capacity] and education from pre-school to university should be in Kurdish. In Democratic Autonomous Kürdistan, official language should be Turkish and Kurdish. The language of service should be Kurdish…"

 

The demand is not to teach in the mother tongue but for education in the mother tongue!

 

Rapporteurs, or those who distributed the text to DTK members, are apparently inspired neither by philology nor by sociology. To me, perhaps, not the most interesting but the most sensitive item on the draft is "mother tongue." I gave a warning about mother tongue education and education in the mother tongue in a piece published on Sept. 23, 2010. In short, I said:

 

"In a democratic country everyone is entitled to learn his or her mother tongue beside the official language, if different. And for that it is the state's duty to have selective courses in a mother tongue and it should be a private schools' right to provide such education. However, education in the mother language means education in all courses (history, literature, mathematics, etc.) in the mother tongue. And such demand is the reason for a split.

 

"For education is not about learning a language but also acquiring information.

 

"Education is, at the same time, a process of discussion and absorption of common culture, values, traditions, beliefs, aspirations, pains; in short, all elements keeping a community together.

 

"If we will live under the Republic of Turkey umbrella, we should jointly claim these elements as a whole!

 

"If our children have education in separate schools and in separate languages, we will raise generations whose members will not know and learn each other's language, culture, values, customs, beliefs, aspirations and concerns.

 

"And nobody can keep them under a common denominator. Split will naturally and gradually emerge."

 

Almost no one, and perhaps intentionally, talks about separation, but teaching a mother tongue (learning the mother tongue in formal education) and teaching in a mother tongue (having one's entire education in the mother tongue) do not seem different in description. However, even if Turkish is taught as part of the education of the mother tongue (Kurdish for instance), two generations would be raised estranged.

 

For, I repeat, education is not just about the proper reading and writing of a language and learning things in that language, but it is at the same time a process in which the common culture, values, customs, beliefs, aspirations, and concerns are learned – in short, all elements that keep communities together are discussed and absorbed.

 

Language is not only a tool for communication between the sides, but it is also a means to share common concerns.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

THE 'LIEBERMAN FACTOR'

SEMİH İDİZ

 

Evidence is mounting that Turkey and Israel are seeking a way out of the morass their previously good ties have fallen into. Given the hard-line nature of the governments in both countries, there should be no effort made under normal circumstances to try and improve these ties.

 

After all there is a pro-Islamist government on the one side – which is openly sympathetic to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – and a government comprising fundamentalist Jews on the other, whose vision is impaired not just by dreams of a "greater Israel" but also by all that religious fundamentalism generally entails.

 

It is clear, therefore, that if left to their own resources, these ties would have to wait a long time before they got better. The indications are, however, that the Erdoğan and Netanyahu governments are trying now to somehow turn over this bad page, even if it means swallowing some pride and arriving at certain compromises.

 

It seems that, hate each other as they may, both governments have come around to understanding that Turkish-Israeli ties have a significance way beyond their immediate limits. In other words, it matters if these relations are good or bad for the region, for the world and for the ties Turkey and Israel enjoy with other countries.

 

Responsible politicians who acknowledge some of the "ugly realities" of the world usually have less room to maneuver in, regardless of what their emotions or 'visions" may dictate to them.

 

This is probably what is forcing Foreign Minister Davutoğlu now into using more conciliatory language about Israel, even if he is still insists on an apology and compensation for the victims of the Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara.

 

"We have the intention of making peace with Israel," Davutoğlu was reported by agencies as telling reporters in Istanbul over the weekend. "We are for peace with all countries. Why should we want bad relations with a country with whom we are trying to broker peace?" he said, referring to Ankara's failed attempt to mediate discussions between Israel and Syria in 2008.

 

Davutoğlu also had some uncharacteristic remarks about Iran, which were no doubt noted, not just in Washington but also in Tel Aviv. He said Turkey was categorically against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, adding that Ankara merely wanted to underline countries' rights, including Turkey, to peaceful nuclear energy.

 

Davutoğlu said Turkey would never agree to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, system. "We are telling Iran that if you seek to do so, we, before the United States, would oppose it," he was reported by The Associated Press as saying.

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu, for his part, also appears to be trying to take advantage of the conciliatory actions coming out of Ankara, such as the dispatching of fire fighting planes to Israel recently and remarks from members of the Erdoğan government, such as Davutoğlu's words quoted above.

 

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Andy David was quoted by the Israeli media as saying that they are currently maintaining discreet talks with Turkey.

 

"The two countries need to get back on track, need to get back their diplomatic relations as they were before, to be friendly, and I believe that that is not far," he said.

 

There is talk among diplomats in Ankara that the two countries are actually working on a formula whereby Israel can apologize and pay compensation to the victims of the Mavi Marmara incident in such a way that both countries can save face.

 

The serious problem for the Israeli side, however, is Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the fundamentalist wing of Netanyahu's right wing government and appears determined to be a total spoiler of any rapprochement between the two countries.

 

Lieberman has defended his radical comments on Turkey by arguing that he has a right to his own opinions, and saying that it is Ankara that should apologize to Israel over the Mavi Marmara incident, referring to the Turkish demand for an apology and compensation as "beyond chutzpa."

 

The problem that Lieberman poses for his government was, however, highlighted almost immediately when the prime minister's office released a statement underscoring the fact that only Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks for the government.

 

"The foreign minister's words reflect his understandings and personal opinions, as the various ministers in the government differ in opinion from one another," the statement said. "The government's position is only the one expressed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu."

 

The diplomatic as well as political liability that Lieberman poses for his government was further demonstrated when opposition Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, a former foreign minister herself, jumped into the fray. During an interview with the Israeli Army Radio Livni said Lieberman's harsh criticism of Turkey exposed a serious problem with Netanyahu's stance on the issue and that Israel deserves a braver leader.

 

Livni also indicated that the claim that Lieberman does not represent the government's position is not correct because Prime Minister Netanyahu is responsible for his foreign minister. These exchanges on the Israel side demonstrate sufficiently where a major stumbling block in front of efforts to improve ties between the two countries lies.

 

The irony is that the stumbling block in this case should be no less a person than the foreign minister whose ministry's job, by its very nature, should be to try and improve ties with other countries and not dynamite them, thus making matters worse than they already are. It is clear, however, that Lieberman has domestic political scores to settle, which is motivating his actions.

 

In the meantime, Prime Minister Erdoğan has noticeably toned down his anti-Israeli rhetoric of late, which is no doubt an indirect acknowledgment of the fact that he understands the big bad world out there does not revolve around his personal sentiments. 

 

But it seems like this realization is going to take a bid longer to emerge on the Israel side as long as the likes of Lieberman hold a spanner that they can throw into the works at anytime.  This having been said, it is still noteworthy that the two countries are working discreetly to solve their differences, and this is good news in itself, regardless of the "Lieberman factor."

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AT THE YEAR-END

ERDOĞAN ALKİN

 

ealkin@iticu.edu.tr

As mentioned several times before, there has been a wide rift between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Americans believe that austerity-too-soon will stop the slight increases in production and employment and that it is better now to continue implementing the same measures to boost economic growth. On the other hand, especially after recently seeing serious deficit and debt problems in some eurozone countries, the main idea in Europe is that without controlling huge budget deficits and ever-growing debt it will be impossible to see the end of the crisis.

 

Not very openly, they also contend that when budget deficits and debt reach reasonable levels, production and employment will begin to increase again. Although there is no theoretical evidence for such an idea, one can say "faith can move mountains."

 

It is easy to see the reasons behind these two contradicting theses. The Barack Obama administration, while dealing with serious domestic and international problems, does not wish its popularity to decrease further because of a worsening economic outlook and it does not care about budget deficits and debt even if these figures exceed the levels seen in some European countries.

 

Although most European governments intend to find a solution for the deficit and debt problems being experienced by the comparatively small members of the eurozone, they have also been trying to save their national economies from the same problems appearing in the short-term. To this end, international cooperation is necessary, they say. For small economies that have huge budget deficits and public debt, international cooperation means getting sufficient financial support from rich member countries. However, rich countries, in spite of street riots, are trying hard to convince their people about the virtues of austerity. It means that their priority is solving domestic problems first, not international problems.

 

All these developments show that it is almost impossible to see the end of the crisis in 2011.

 

Now it is time to discuss Turkey's economic outlook. Despite all political problems, domestic and international, most of Turkey's macroeconomic figures are encouraging. Recently-published data on industrial production, gross domestic product (although there was a slowdown during the third quarter of 2010), budget deficit, inflation and employment show some positive developments.

 

However, foreign trade and current account deficits are still the most significant problems in the Turkish economy. The increase in exports is satisfactory, but not sufficient to finance the volume of imports that was mainly accelerated by the overvaluation of the Turkish Lira, created by hot money inflows. These inflows are currently helping to finance the current account deficit, but might bring some problems in the future.

 

If austerity measures are approved by the people in most European countries after numerous strikes and street fights, the full implementations of those measures will begin to slacken total demand, as intended. This might affect Turkish exports to those countries negatively.

 

There is another concern about the implementation of tight monetary and fiscal policies. Some domestic and foreign business circles think the 2011 general elections might divert the government's interest on economic problems to merely political matters.

 

In short, although the outlook of the world economy is not hopeless, it cannot be defined as very bright. On the contrary, even foreigners' comments on Turkey's economic outlook are very positive. In fact, if there is no serious political turmoil next year, the Turkish economy may grow around 7 percent again in 2011, even if there isn't any base effect this time around. And if any effective measure can be implemented to slow down hot money inflows, currency overvaluation and current account deficit problems might be solved. However, even these problems cannot be solved in the short run, but the probability of a new domestic economic crisis next year is very small. For the years beyond, it is almost impossible to make realistic predictions.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

ARMENIA TURKEY IN 2010: COULD IT BE WORSE?

HOVHANNES NIKOGHOSYAN

 

As the New Year holidays come closer it is an ideal time to sum up the developments of the outgoing year and cross fingers for a better year in 2011.

 

As a good colleague of mine, Ömer Taşpınar from the Brookings Institute, pointed out in an essay recently, the intense times these two estranged nations face begun earlier than usual in 2010.

 

The news headlines of late 2009, after Zurich, were rather optimistic, and I cheered them. While policy-makers elsewhere were predicting Nobel Peace Prizes for Presidents Abdullah Gül of Turkey and Serge Sarkisian of Armenia, some people really felt ignored and up-staged. Azerbaijan's continuous pressure on Turkey, urging rapprochement with the Karabakh peace process, and, as a Wikileaks quote shows (Cable 10BAKU134), delaying the gas export deal was blackmail for the Turkish government which played a major role in the current deadlock.

 

While protocols clearly detached these two issues, this play still proved rather a comfortable exit strategy for Turkey to rely upon. Late February 2010, the shift in Turkish policy was clear, as Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu began appealing to "simultaneity" between the ratification of the Armenian Protocols and the Minsk Process (Cable 10ANKARA302), while international mediators rejected it.

 

In an effort to escape domestic escalation and, perhaps, feeling betrayed by the partners outside, President Sarkisian issued a timely decree on April 22 suspending the ratification process in the National Assembly, but still left it on the agenda.

 

Earlier, the passage of the Armenian Genocide affirmation resolution (HRes252) by a slight majority at the United States House Foreign Relations Committee on March 4, followed by another resolution in the Swedish Parliament, have shut down the process in American and European dimensions. To my mind, this clearly demonstrated to Turkey the uneasiness and hesitation of Europeans and Americans to drop "the Armenian issue" from their agendas, keeping it, in the words of Turkish Foreign Mihnister Ahmet Davutoğlu, as the sword of Damocles above the head of Turkey.

 

Russia took the initiative and sponsorship on the Nagorno-Karabakh process in a timely way, however cannot be afforded compliments for any kind of success the end of the year either.

 

In August, in the South Caucasus region, both Armenia and Azerbaijan concluded military treaties, with Russia and Turkey respectively – all under Article 51 of the United Nations charter. As the Parliament of Azerbaijan ratified the treaty, the major difference of the two became clear. While the Russian-Armenian pact speaks only about defending Armenia in case of direct aggression, the Azeri-Turkish pact of strategic partnership, partly unveiled, also prescribes assistance "to restore regional peace and security." When the bellicose rhetoric from Azerbaijan becomes louder on the resumption of hostilities against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, one may remember the four UN Security Council resolutions where the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh was determined as "endanger[ing] peace and security in the region" (UNSC Res 884).

 

Though I hope I will be the only scholar to see the linkage.

 

Thus, the region was kicked off to the nineteenth century, when security was generally guaranteed by the treaties of mutual (military) reassurance, instead of expanding trade and synchronized economic development.

 

The OSCE Astana Summit was the clear indicator of the deadlock we are currently in. The good news, if it may be good at all, was that the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus is a microcosm of the greater deadlock "from Vancouver to Vladivostok."  Thinking post-factum, with Russian President Medvedev's European security architecture falling apart and Astana remaining unattended by Presidents Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, global policies in the South Caucasus could not be better. The Armenian delegation being resistant to what they call any meaningless meeting with Turkish colleagues in Astana, the only thing both presidents could afford was nodding and wishing each other good health.

 

Regarding the Karabakh process, if there is one, besides the scheduled Minsk Group-mediated meetings, in a wider canvas – the deadlock is in the minds of politicians. A very recent report called "Karabakh: A Big Debate," incorporating interviews with Armenian and Azerbaijani political party leaders (with interviews of NKR parties and organizations coming in March 2011), suggests the majority of Armenian parties support the Minsk Group process – a wider European engagement and negotiated solution – while their Azerbaijani colleagues speak of a greater place for Turkey, again supportive of the EU's soft role, they don't trust Minsk Group, and, worst of all, a majority is sure that the only viable solution will come with the resumption of a new war.

 

Though I wish I were a better optimist.

 

Hovhannes Nikoghosyan is a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute in Yerevan, Armenia, where he contributes the regional security agenda.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

DO YOU THINK DAVUTOĞLU IS A GOOD RESTORER?

MEHMET ALİ BİRAND

 

To restore is to renovate or mend something that has become old and weary. The person who does just that is called a restorer.

 

After listening to Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu last Saturday for 3.5 hours, sacrificing the beautiful whether outside, I decided his mission is restoration and that he is a restorer.

 

Davutoğlu said Turkish foreing policy has entered the 4th period of restoration and explained his target and approach. To tell the truth, if it were another minister who would have made us get stuck in a hotel lobby for 3.5 hours to tell us what he is doing, some of us would have probably set him on fire. But I wasn't bored at all and learned much.

 

We may be on different terms from time to time, receive brisk criticism from the minister and may not agree with some of his approaches, but Davutoğlu is one of those foreign ministers who is different and has perspective, basing his applications on historical and philosophical past. He has the ability to decorate his speeches with anecdotes that make them interesting and informative.

 

Not just for us but also in international relations, Davutoğlu is the first foreign minister to attract the attention of almost everybody.

 

He derives his strength from Prime Minister Erdoğan. They share the same view and he acts on behalf of the leader. With this strength he changed politics the world was accustomed to and thus changed Turkey.

 

That is why he disturbed and amazed some. Yet despite all of this is he different. However, it is still too early to evaluate changes resulting from this restoration and we can't yet judge whether they have been positive or negative. We'll see in the future.

 

So what is it that Davutoğlu is trying to do? What is his target?

 

What is the 4th restoration period?

 

Davutoğlu named the period in which he sees the country the 4th restoration period. He made up a very interesting perspective and taught a history lesson. He drew attention to former restorations Turkey has experienced in the past.

 

1. The most important restoration took place during the Ottoman Empire with the political reform of 1839. General politics were reviewed and new approaches developed.

 

2. The second restoration took place during the rise of the Republic and is characterized by a proximity to the West, the priority of Western values and the start of a new secular perception. A distance was kept with Islamic and even Middle Eastern countries.

 

3. Turkey's entry to NATO started another period. The Cold War and the introduction of a multiple party system were the main themes of the third restoration.

 

4. With the AKP coming to power we entered the 4th restoration period.

What is changing with the 4th restoration? According to Davutoğlu, it is a period in which the European Union is the main theme, i.e. the period of democracy (in which liberty increases and human rights are safeguarded). Besides all of that, political attitudes have also changed.

 

Target: Increased visibility and established order

 

Davutoğlu talked about his approach in recent years, what type of politics he will follow in 2011 and the 4th restoration period's reflection on foreign policy.

 

He also drew attention to a very vital point: Turkey can't stay put as the world changes. And that is very true. He stressed that this was not another attempt to revive the Ottoman heritage. To tell the truth, I could not quite understand the minister being sensitive about this subject and reacting so strongly. "Why are you so sensitive about it?" I asked.

 

"By spreading such rumors they try and scare Middle East and Balkan countries that have bad memories of the Ottoman period, but which we try to approach. They try to make them believe the Ottomans are back. That is why I am so sensitive about it," he said.

 

But I believe that there is no need for Turkey to worry about that. Let's move on to Turkey's basic foreign policy targets.

 

1. Politics that attract attention, have effective perception, provide for a new order that stands by the weak and the just, and one that resists global inequality.

 

 

He also perceives the Iran issue within this framework. He quoted the nuclear disarmament initiative and the conference of underdeveloped countries for Darfur, Somali, Afghanistan and Congo meetings.

 

 

2. To be the country to establish order in the region. Not to ignore our environment but to solve issues together with other countries in the region.

 

He also counted frequent contact and negotiation attempts within this target.

 

Now if we were to take a look at this list you may encounter positive or negative results in respect to how things went so far and where we have obtained no results at all.

 

Yes Turkey is becoming distinct. Turkey is much talked about. The axis stays put but its approach changes. But in order to issue a grade on the report card we need to wait a bit longer, as I said before.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

WORRISOME...

 

Finally, Sunday night, hours after the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review went to press, the almighty and most tolerant prime minister decided to bring an end to his long silence on the "democratic autonomy" proposal of the political wing of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, terrorist gang.

 

"No way," the prime minister said brushing aside the poisonous offer as devoid of any reason and reiterating that national and territorial integrity, the Turkish flag and language were off limits in any discussion. That was what many people were expecting to hear from the prime minister.

 

Why did he wait for almost 10 days before making a comment on that treacherous and indeed separatist proposal? Perhaps he wanted to feel the pulse of the nation, or perhaps it took him some time to understand what dangers the proposal indeed contained. Anyhow, better late than never…

 

Of course, Turkey has entered into the election campaign period. The political wing of the separatist gang, the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP, as well as the Democratic Society Congress, or DTK – which was established by the separatist gang to provide both a roof for some ethnic-Kurdish political figures such as Ahmet Türk and Aysel Tuğluk, who were declared political outcasts by the Constitutional Court and a tool to curtail the rising influence of non-PKK NGOs in the Kurdish-populated areas of the country – are trying to polarize society and thus boost their probable vote share in the upcoming June polls.

 

Anyhow, irrespective of how treacherous or poisonous the proposals or ideas they put forward might be, they are definitely far better than the bullets fired or landmines laid by their master PKK. Furthermore, if this country is to find a civilian settlement to the problem which has claimed lives of well over 35 thousand people since the August 1984 start of PKK's separatist terrorism campaign, we all must be prepared to hear such totally repugnant ideas and proposals. It will certainly take some time for reason and common sense start to dominate discussions.

 

The problem is the fact that if when such poisonous proposals are put forward and those in the administration of the country fail to come forward with clear-cut and comprehensive answers – but instead, perhaps because of their worries that their sincere answer might enrage some voters, try to respond through proxies – people might develop the perception that the country might be facing a plot concocted by the separatist gang or by some enemies of the country and that the government is discreetly abetting such designs, thinking they might serve its political interests.

 

Whereas, in a society like Turkey which is composed of people with tens of different ethnic, cultural and indeed religious background – which must be considered nothing abnormal in view of the just recent imperial past – scratching such differences or allowing such differences be made fodder for politics might produce some very disastrous outcomes. Definitely, such approaches would not help the peace and stability of the country or national and territorial integrity.

 

Differences, be they ethnic, religious, cultural or religious, must be of course acknowledged and respected. All colors of the Turkish society must be allowed to be reflected to the common culture while at the same time develop their own distinct subcultures. Yet, this country has no luxury of compromising either from its language, flag of national borders. Talking about a second official local or national language other than Turkish, suggesting a flag next to the Turkish flag or carving out an "autonomous region" with its separate language, flag and security force – that is just short of full independence – cannot be considered a constructive discussion which might contribute to a resolution. On the contrary such talk would further make difficult resolution of the Kurdish problem.

 

These developments are very worrisome…

 

Look, almost at the same hour the prime minister was criticizing the "democratic autonomy" proposal as totally unacceptable at the parliament rostrum an alleged Sunni mob attacked an Alevi "cemevi" – the place where Alevis perform their religious services. Thank God, only few people were in the building because the rest were at a wedding ceremony. Those few people escaped safely but the mob tried to burn the cemevi, ransacked it and smashed down all its windows…

 

Is this the tolerance culture we often talk about proudly? Turkish society is heading out on some worrisome adventures...

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

EU'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY STRUCTURE: WILL OR CAN IT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE?

SERTAÇ AKTAN

 

As they just announced on the preparation briefing last week, the upcoming European Union Presidency Hungary will have two major issues on its agenda. The first one is economic governance and the second is common foreign policy-making, especially in terms of institutions, instruments and coherence. Since everyone is talking about the first one, I'm going to talk about the second one.

 

The Lisbon Treaty made two very important institutional innovations that impact on EU external relations and actions. The president of European Council position is filled by Herman Van Rompuy and the high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy position is filled by Catherine Ashton. She is also the vice-president of the European Commission which aims to ensure consistency and coordination within and between institutions on external action, meaning a new external action department has been created to assist her.

 

This new department is called the European External Action Service, or EEAS, which is going to divide the world into five areas and will report on them to Ashton. This development gives new hope to some who have been frustrated about the inadequacy of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, or CFSP, over time. The EEAS mechanism was formally launched on Dec. 1 and is still under construction, and it will come truly into being in January where 1,643 staff personnel will be transferred from the council and the commission. The EEAS will be independent from other EU institutions and will have its own independent budget, but many Europeans are still cynical on whether it can do or deliver anything different than the already existing structure.

 

A managing director will be responsible for each of the five world regions and he or she will be the eyes and ears of Ashton, reporting directly to her and only her. So you can imagine how important and strategically vital these positions are now. Behind the scenes member states have been struggling and putting their diplomatic weight into having these positions for quite sometime. France was one of them and got what it wanted. Just some days ago, Ashton appointed Hugues Mingarelli for the Middle East and Southern Neighborhood. Britain also got a very important position with Robert Cooper being appointed as the councilor for the EEAS.

 

For those who might be interested, Mingarelli is a 56-year-old Frenchman who is currently the deputy director general in Directorate-General for External Relations, or DG RELEX, of the European Commission, responsible for relations with the countries covered by the European Neighborhood Policy. He has been working on CFSP for more than 20 years now. We will be hearing his name and his work more often in coming days.

 

Cooper, on the other hand, was previously director-general for external and politico-military affairs in the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU. Before moving to Brussels in 2002 he was special representative of the British government on Afghanistan.

 

Getting back to foreign policy making of the union; to understand where it might be going, I want to recall what it was like until now. If the community's policy instruments and funding are to be used for the political aims of the CFSP, "coherence" and "consistency" – as the Hungarian Presidency already addresses – become key issues. Since the inception of the CFSP, it has become clear that the EU has problems with acquiring a united position. Furthermore, problems with consistency in European foreign policy are greatly exacerbated by the need for cross-pillar coordination. The "coherence" problem arose in European Community, or EC, foreign policy in the past just as it arises today in the EU. That is because the policies were implemented in two separate networks: external policy relations are conducted by the member states according to "intergovernmental methods" where the participants come from foreign ministries, while external economic relations are conducted by the community institutions according to the "community method" where the data not only comes from foreign ministries but also from a wide range of other ministries.

 

This made coordination difficult at the national level as well as at the European level. From EC to EU the structure did not change fundamentally until the Lisbon Treaty. One of the main objections to the former EU treaties and CFSP was that it lacked strong identity and persona. Other criticisms have always been about the role of the rotating presidency, overlapping positions of high representative and the external relations commissioner… etc. All these have changed with Lisbon.

 

Why are coherence and consistency so important? In the international arena it may not matter much whether a given policy is consistent with another one within the EU internal matters, however, in external matters if inconsistency brings the Union into contempt, and thereby impairs its effectiveness to act, then it becomes a great deal like it was in the issue of Iraq war for example. If the "common" in the CFSP is to be taken seriously, then all the players should be involved in the policy making process by means of consistent institutions and coherent procedures. The institutional set-up of the CFSP leads to permanent confrontation rather than unity. The EU's CFSP process is not evolutionary by nature. Every follow-up action is subject to another debate about its necessity because the member states have the option of taking a national decision.

 

The EU struggled for years to achieve a common foreign policy that would articulate the diverse aspects of its external relations and be in some way commensurate with its presence in the world. In no other area have rising expectations so exceeded the performance. Until now, the CFSP couldn't match those expectations because there was no compulsion for it to exist and therefore no consensus on the purpose it was intended to serve. Europe is poorly prepared to develop anything more than a declaratory common foreign policy. It has been recognized that foreign policy is not like trade. Decisions made by states, particularly if their vital interests are affected, have to be taken rapidly and executed with a determination which involves risk. Risk taking requires responsibility and responsibility requires authority and leadership.

 

We will see if this new tools of the union provide any new kind of authority or leadership mechanism to these new personas that will neither challenge nor discomfort the member states and not be incoherent with them and other institutions at the same time. A working foreign policy is as important as a working monetary union, if not more.

 

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HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

OPINION

A LONG WAY TO GO AFTER CANCUN

DAVID DICKSON

 

The modest achievements of last week's climate talks in Mexico must not create a false sense of complacency.

 

Ever since the high-profile collapse of last year's climate talks in Copenhagen, expectations for this year's meeting in Cancun, Mexico, had been low.

 

In Copenhagen, failure was triggered partly by an inability to bridge the gap between the demands of the developing world and the concessions offered by the developed world. The negotiating process itself suffered the biggest damage. Political differences and the resulting acrimonious fallout led some to conclude that climate change is an issue too complex for a multilateral body such as the United Nations, and to argue that more focused, even bilateral, negotiations are needed.

 

At the Cancun meeting, which ended last weekend, the skeptics were proven wrong. By adopting more modest goals than those discussed in Copenhagen, the international community has come up with a set of agreements that, at the very least, have restored faith in the negotiating process.

 

But even the meeting's U.N. organizers agreed that this package falls far short of what is needed to forestall the catastrophic consequences predicted to follow an average global temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius. That task remains as daunting as ever, and has now been passed to the shoulders of next year's meeting, due to take place in Durban, South Africa.

 

Small gains

 

Cancun has made some progress, however modest. Central to this was an agreement on how a Green Fund, already accepted in principle in Copenhagen, might distribute $100 billion to help developing countries prepare for the impact of global warming – a move particularly welcomed by delegates from island states and least developed countries.

 

There was agreement on a process intended to prevent further deforestation and tap the value of forests as carbon sinks. Known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD, the scheme should entitle developing countries to compensation for preserving existing forests and restoring areas already degraded.

 

The meeting also made substantial progress on monitoring carbon emissions. Countries endorsed international standards and measuring techniques that will make it much harder for any country that gets support from rich nations to "fudge" emission statistics. The agreement satisfied both China and the United States.

 

And the meeting reached a consensus on how to stimulate international cooperation on developing and disseminating low-carbon technologies. This will allow technology transfer to begin, although developing countries failed to secure free access to all low-carbon technologies – one of the concessions some had hoped to achieve.

 

A mountain still to climb

 

But much still remains to be done. For example, there was no agreement on how to raise the $100 billion needed for the Green Fund by the target date of 2020, leaving many highly skeptical that the goal can be achieved. Much of the money is expected to come from the private sector.

 

Just as much uncertainty hangs over the legal status of the Cancun commitments, which are voluntary – a price paid for reaching consensus. Unless agreements can be turned into legally-binding requirements, there is genuine concern that many countries will only pay them lip-service.

 

Hanging over all of this is uncertainty about the future of the Kyoto Protocol itself. In this framework agreement, reached in 1997, 37 countries pledged to cut emissions of greenhouse and other related gases by five per cent between 1990 and next year, when the protocol expires.

 

While much of the developing world wants the protocol to be extended, many developed countries are instead demanding a new agreement in which the developing world itself takes on a comparable commitment.

 

Framework, but not fruition

 

In view of these limitations, it would be wrong to call the Mexico meeting a success. The "Cancun Agreements" provide a substantial framework for future progress, but remain a wish-list of commitments – and inadequate commitments at that.

 

No-one was more critical than Bolivia, which earlier this year hosted its own "social summit" on climate change. The Bolivian delegation reminded participants that the agreements were insufficient to avoid threats to the poor in the developing world that could be "disastrous for humanity."

In the end, Bolivia's views were marginalized in the rush to achieve consensus. But that does not invalidate them. Unless the rich nations – and the United States in particular – are prepared to make substantial concessions in Durban next year, the prospects for the developing world are unlikely to improve.

 

Had the Cancun meeting been allowed to collapse, as some had feared it would, the prospects for reaching consensus on how to move forward would be poorer still. At the end of the day, that prospect was sufficient to keep the negotiating process intact. But the fruits of those negotiations remain as distant as ever.

 

*This article was originally published by OilPrice.com, which offers free information and analysis on energy and commodities. To find out more, visit the website at www.oilprice.com.

 

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 I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

GROWING STRAINS

 

Midway through the term of the PPP government, we see strains threatening to tear the coalition apart. At the party's Central Executive Committee meeting in Naudero President Zardari asked PPP leaders to avoid comments on allies, since keeping the coalition intact is a top priority. There have been robust declarations from Nawaz Sharif who has distanced himself from the PPP still further by declaring that he is not offering "friendly" opposition, that indeed the government does not deserve friends, and that he would have no truck with leaders who "lick the boots of dictators." Launching a PML-N chapter in Azad Kashmir he suggested that his party could bring about a "revolution." He also lashed out at the MQM for the many killings in Karachi. The "revolutionary" ball was set rolling by the MQM which has been conducting an exercise in mass consultation on whether it should remain a coalition partner with the PPP. Adding further spice to the broth, Altaf Hussain, reacting angrily to Nawaz's comments, has said that he and his party will take on the PML-N in Punjab which, according to him, has been turned into a police state. Even hints by the JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman that he may rejoin the coalition if certain demands are met raise little hope that the political situation will settle down. More so, since the demands seem to revolve around the controversial issues of the blasphemy law and the operation in the northern areas. 

With political tempers rising, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. The PPP's focus seems to be on keeping its government safe at all costs. It is therefore likely to make whatever compromises it sees necessary to bring the JUI-F back into the fold. Since 1988, the year it was restored after an 11-year hiatus, our intermittent democracy has been marked by just this process of deal-making. Power takes precedence over principle, and over the need to offer people some semblance of governance. Things are no better this time around; indeed, they may be worse than they appear to be. It remains to be seen if the president can succeed in cooling passions, as he is attempting to do. The PPP's own failures and the consequent disgruntlement of allies make this task harder. The tensions do nothing to create the environment that is required to run national affairs more smoothly, and this of course means that people will remain as unhappy and impatient as they are with the prevailing state of affairs and the difficulties they face as a result of the rapidly worsening situation. And what hope for change is there for them in this grave political and economic crisis? Not much. No opposition party has talked in detail about exactly how a change is to be brought about. Their words are carefully contrived to give an impression of action being imminent, but there is no sign of what that action might be beyond colourful political rhetoric. None of the parties in opposition are offering a manifesto for change, the way in which they would do things differently or right the innumerable wrongs that beset governance. All of them are roundly condemning corruption, nepotism, bad management and all the other condemnable aspects of governance that certainly litter the landscape; but not one has on-the-table a vision for the future that might grab the public imagination and lead to change. 

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I. THE NEWS

EDITORIAL

PENDING PROBE

 

Three years after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, we are no closer to knowing who killed her, or to solving the other mysteries that surround the violent events that took place at Liaquat Bagh. These mysteries have been discussed again and again, and remain a major talking point. People everywhere are anxious to know what happened, and why. They have received few answers so far, and it appears that none are likely to come in the near future. The findings of the probe into Benazir's death were, oddly enough, not presented at the PPP Central Executive Committee meeting in Naudero. The reason put forward by Federal Law Minister Babar Awan, that the report would be presented at the next CEC as party chairman Bilawal Bhutto was not present in the country, is hardly convincing. Surely, the issue is important enough for details to be revealed urgently, given that it has been three years already since Benazir died. It should also have been possible to arrange for Bilawal to be present if this was considered a vital prerequisite to the presentation of the report.

The question of why her own party has moved so slowly to get to the bottom of her death is unexplained. Many have raised doubts about the true desire of the president and others for the crime to be solved. This only adds to the layers of suspicions wrapped around the crime which altered the political destiny of an entire nation. The rifts within the PPP are obvious too. The CEC meeting was not attended by key leaders such as Sherry Rehman, Naheed Khan, Safdar Abbasi and Aitzaz Ahsan. In the absence of Benazir, her party threatens to crumble. Activists remain infuriated by the failure to get to the bottom of her assassination – and the political chaos we face highlights how badly we today need a leader of Benazir's calibre, able to hold things together and prevent the drift towards anarchy that we face today.

 

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I,THE NEWS

OPINION

DIGGING OUR WAY OUT OF THE CAVE

MOSHARRAF ZAIDI

The outcome of a debate often depends on how the question is framed and who is asking it. In a perfect world, we would get to choose how to frame the question, and who poses the question. The real world is not perfect. 

The issue of blasphemy in Pakistan is an interesting case of a public debate. Let's call one side supporters of the status quo, and the other side, opponents of the status quo. Supporters of the status quo do not want any changes made to the sections of the Pakistan Penal Code that address blasphemy, while opponents of the status quo want changes to parts of the Pakistan Penal Code that deal with blasphemy. It is important to note that while the range of opposition to the status quo is diverse (amendment, repeal etc), the range of support is single file (nobody touches the "blasphemy law"). 

What makes the debate fascinating is that it is effectively not a debate at all. It is a case of two separate arguments, each pretending to be engaged with the other. Both sides of the argument whip themselves into a frenzy and both arguments claim moral superiority. The only problem is that one side keeps winning, and the other side keeps losing. 

This isn't like losing a debate on the pros and cons of regressive taxation like the RGST. Opponents of the status quo themselves rightly argue that losing the debate on how the law treats blasphemy costs lives. The sections of the Pakistan Penal Code (Act XLV of 1860) that pertain to blasphemy egregiously and unnecessarily inflate the incentive to register false cases of blasphemy, and then egregiously and unnecessarily cause unchecked threats to the lives of people accused (almost always falsely) of blasphemy. Losing the debate on the issue of how blasphemy should be treated by the law in Pakistan has real consequences. It sustains the status quo. Since the status quo involves the incentivisation of false legal suits, and since those legal suits then create demonstrable threats to the lives of Pakistani citizens, the status quo has to be unacceptable to reasonable people. 

Of course, supporters of the status quo don't frame their argument by expressing a desire to increase the quantum of false cases, or the victimisation of minorities. Supporters and defenders of the status quo are winning the debate not on the basis of a good argument, or normative superiority, or even street power. They are winning the debate because they have framed the question on blasphemy in the public domain in Pakistan. That question is quite simple, and it is very, very potent. No matter what their lips are saying, the question they are asking Pakistanis is this: "Do you want to live in a Pakistan where offensive speech against religious personalities and symbols is a legally protected right?"

Of course, opponents of the status quo are not advocating offensive speech or blasphemy. But that doesn't matter because the question has already been framed. It's a trick question. It is meant to locate opponents of the status quo outside the field of play. Simply put, if your answer to that question is yes, and you are in Pakistan, supporters of the status quo will successfully argue that you are in the wrong place. Supporters and defenders of the status quo do not advertise themselves as advocates of the status quo, they advertise themselves as defenders of the faith, and the honour of the faithful. No matter what argument is employed, opponents of the status quo cannot win this specific debate. 

 

The fight to alter the status quo is a fight to protect innocent Pakistanis from being victimised by a social structure, a set of laws, and a state machinery that are to varying degrees, basically broken. Changing the status quo is about the safety, security of all Pakistanis, particularly disadvantaged Pakistanis such as religious minorities. The PPC's blasphemy provisions represent a law that allows influential locals to demonstrate their muscularity and achieve fame, by egregiously and unnecessarily registering false cases of blasphemy, and then egregiously and unnecessarily threatening (and taking) the lives of those accused. To want to change the current situation is an absolutely reasonable, non-ideological and non-partisan public policy proposition. 

 

To win this critical fight, opponents of the status quo need to step away from instruments that have failed them, and the cause of a safe, secure and reasonable Pakistan. These instruments include moral outrage, ideological rabble rousing, the use of the word "liberal" and a complete lack of engagement with the Pakistani Main Street, the Pakistani gulley, and the Pakistani mosque. Passion and moral outrage have little place in the fight for change and for a safe, secure and reasonable Pakistan. 

 

In the range of efforts to affect change to how the state deals with blasphemy, there are problems not just at the strategic level, but also the tactical level. Let's take the issue of timing. Immediately after a blasphemy conviction represents the worst possible time to begin or step up a debate about the PPC blasphemy provisions. Arguing against these provisions right after a fresh conviction, or even registration of a case, can easily be painted by mischievous partisans as being an attempt to de-Islamise Pakistan's 170-plus Muslims. Meanwhile, standing up for the honour of the symbols of Islam, at a time when opponents of the status quo seem to be "in concert" with "blasphemers" is a brilliant opportunity to press home the advantage for defenders of the status quo. It is a great time to be a beneficiary of the Pakistani state's dysfunction. 

How bad is this dysfunction? Instead of instructing government to block offensive cartoons, the Lahore High Court bans Facebook altogether. Instead of appointing progressive scholars to the Council of Islamic Ideology, the government appointed the JUI (F)'s Maulana Sherani, for political expediency. Instead of dismissing a frivolous and malicious case against Sherry Rehman, and holding the petitioner in contempt of court, a judge accepts a petition against her. Clearly, the Pakistani state lacks not only the will and capacity to solve problems creatively; it lacks the spine and the muscle to stand up to the intimidation of hoodlums in the garb of religious gatekeepers. 

This is the time and space continuum in which the fight for changes to the status quo is taking place. Opponents of the status quo must contextualise the struggle here, start framing the debate in a proactive, rather than reactive manner, and prepare for an intergenerational conversation, overwhelmingly in Urdu. We cannot reasonably expect that problems that took decades to build up can be solved in a matter of weeks, months, or even years. But the work must begin and be sustained now, with a tenth of the 21st century already over. It's time to start digging our way out of the cave. 

The writer advises governments, donors and NGOs on public policy. www.mosharrafzaidi.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

THE BALOCH DILEMMA

ZAFAR HILALY

A faction of the two million or so ethnic Baloch may want their province to be independent but they are unlikely to succeed. Their numbers are too small and, like the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and Iran or the Ibos in Nigeria, the forces arraigned against them are too powerful. Their prospects are further dimmed not only by the odds they face but also the poverty and underdevelopment visited on them by their own leaders, the mirs, sardars and nawabs to ensure that their fealty will remain undiluted. 

Of course the federal government against which they have been perennially in revolt added to their woes. The fact that they have to share their province with the Pushtuns who do not wish to be ruled by the Baloch is yet another hurdle and there are other serious obstacles. 

 

Nature, for example, may have been kind to the Baloch, but cruelly so. They have far too many riches buried under the ground to be left alone to enjoy them. The second and third largest deposits of copper and gold in the world at Reko Diq, extensive coal and gas deposits, uranium, lithium and every kind of 'ium', plus, who knows, oil, are all mouth- watering prospects that any country would be loath to forego regardless of how selfish it may appear or to what lengths it may have to go to secure them. 

Furthermore, there is the matter of Balochistan's strategic location which gives it unrivalled importance in today's geostrategic-conscious world. The province bridges Southwest Asia to Central Asia and South Asia and forms the closest oceanic frontage for the land-locked countries of Central Asia. It is the major site for a proposed gas pipeline from Iran and Turkmenistan to Pakistan and perhaps eventually India. Moreover, Gwadur is the terminus of a projected interstate transport corridor linking Pakistan to China and via Afghanistan to the energy rich Central Asian Republics. In the circumstances it is impossible for Pakistan to countenance an independent Balochistan even if it were not to comprise as much as 40 per cent of Pakistan's land mass.

Common sense would therefore suggest that the Baloch are better off trying to achieve their goal of self-rule within the ambit of the Pakistani federation rather than cast about for sponsors, like the US and India. Neither can help much, and in their candid moments would probably advise them to make their peace with Pakistan and strive to achieve a settlement with Islamabad by means other than armed rebellion. 

Alas, good sense is sorely missing nowadays, as the senseless war in Afghanistan and the repression in Kashmir makes painfully evident. Moreover old enmities die hard, hence sadly the Baloch will continue to kill and die in a war that has gone on intermittently since 1947 and has now become endemic, all to no avail. 

It's sad that the Baloch militants remain blind to the politics of the situation and the efficacy of negotiations to achieve their aims and prefer instead to rely exclusively on military means in pursuit of extreme solutions. They have gone on a killing spree against the non-Baloch murdering innocent civilians and driving them out by the tens of thousands solely because they are non Baloch, forgetting that such actions make them no better than those they accuse of similar crimes against the Baloch. This has robbed the Baloch cause of the goodwill of those in the neighbouring provinces who at one time empathised with their plight and without bringing deliverance from their own suffering or victory any closer. Worse, it has lent credence to accusations that they are tools in the hands of Pakistan's enemies who are funding, equipping and providing them with protection and a base for operations against Pakistan. 

Actually all their present antics do is to distract attention from the heart of the problem which is the failure of the Centre to allow the Baloch control of their province and their rightful share of political and economic power. Everybody concedes that the Baloch have been deprived of their proper share of both in the past and have suffered as a result of the four army operations launched thus far. Army operations in a largely civil population are perforce clumsy and they can even go awfully wrong. 

Mr Zardari was therefore right to apologise for the suffering the Baloch had experienced. He and the opposition were also right to announce the packages (the National Finance Commission Award and Aghaz-e-Huqooq-e-Balochistan) that they did. Mr Zardari's mistake, as always, was to run off at the mouth with promises on which he could not deliver. It demonstrated that when it comes to unfulfilled promises he is no different from his predecessors and equally weak, which are precisely the qualities that render him an inconsequential figure in the eyes of the Baloch. Worse, his unfulfilled promises have further fuelled the insurgency. 

The fact is that the Baloch are a beleaguered community; their proportion of the population has been declining because of the influx of people from other parts of Pakistan and even from across Pakistan's borders. Given their small number and their current inability to compete for jobs and contracts, what they need are firm assurances that if full-scale development gets under way it will not put them in a demographic squeeze and that the lion's share of benefits will accrue to them. Both sides have much to gain from a grand bargain and we need to get on with the business of full scale development both for Balochistan's sake and for the country's economic future and long-term strategic stability. 

We should not balk if a special dispensation is needed to provide concrete assurances to the Baloch rather than making pledges and offering half baked measures. But before this can happen the Baloch need to take up the government's repeated and manifestly sincere offers of a dialogue preceded by safe passage for all those Baloch now on the run. 

The writer is a former ambassador.Email: charles123it@hotmail.com

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

KHAKI PUPPETRY

BABAR SATTAR

Disclosure of information is a good thing not because it is an end in itself but because free flow of information results in greater transparency, debate and accountability. Frequently disclosure of information only confirms what people already know. But it is significant because once backed by facts, conjecture becomes reality. And while no one ought to be held to account on the basis of speculation alone, can an entire nation look the other way when stark facts stare it in the eye? In this regard our response to Wikileaks has been extremely instructive. The ruling elite - civil and military - has conveniently responded to the former US envoy's cables simply with denial. What they are denying is unclear. Are they saying that the reported conversations never took place, or that they do not reflect the context and thus the whole truth? Or do they believe that Shaggy's "wasn't me" is a perfectly legitimate response even in statecraft whenever confronted with incriminating facts? 

 

Would our civil and military leaders have us believe that the former US ambassador was a fabler deliberately misleading her bosses in Washington for the fun of it or that the Wikileaks saga is a mischievous US conspiracy to make our rulers look bad in order to lower them further in public esteem? Equally disturbing has been our collective apathy to digging deeper and confronting the truth. Are we not vying for complete disclosure and accountability because we are now accustomed to leaders being caught with their pants down and getting away Scott-free, or do they manage to get away because of our exhibition of expediency, tolerance or even timidity in face of such unsavory conduct? The overall media response to Wikileaks has also been wanting in a fundamental way: the reporting has been partial in that it has beat down on politicians for nauseating sycophancy and shameful self-interest, without proportionately highlighting and scrutinising the role of the military and especially the army chief that might have waded into the domain of illegality. 

The one unmistakable takeaway from Wikileaks is that the already hazardous civil-military imbalance in Pakistan has been further aggravated over the last couple of years. Let us address matters pertaining to propriety, policy and legality in that order. For propriety alone, we don't even need the help of Julian Assange. The army chief might be the most powerful man in the country, but the protocol list doesn't reflect that. But we are now past pretensions. Recently, the military guard detailed for the army chief's security forced two federal ministers to wait for the cavalcade of the army chief to pass through (along with other civilians used to the inconvenience) and interestingly it was the PPP parliamentarians loath to discuss the issue when raised by the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly. It is obvious that neither the ruling party nor the army high command feels the need to prop-up the fiction of civilian control of the military. 

 

The issue of policy linked to propriety is more significant. We know as a matter of public record - also confirmed by Wikileaks - that our army chief independently meets with foreign diplomats and important civilian policymakers from other countries. Observers of civil-military relations in Pakistan have long posited that the military not only believes that the country's security policy falls within its exclusive domain, but also all other aspects of nation policymaking that impinge on internal and external security, including foreign policy. First of all, why does our army chief independently meet with civilian policymakers of foreign countries? Is that not the job of our foreign office? Secondly, are the prescribed procedures for interaction with foreign governments of no relevance when it comes to the military? 

 

The Rules of Business explicitly state that unless an exemption is specifically granted all correspondence with the government of a foreign country shall be conducted through the Foreign Affairs Division. We know from newspapers that our army chief wrote a fourteen-page letter to President Obama highlighting issues he would wish the US to consider in relation to its policy in Afghanistan. Did he seek special permission to correspond directly with the US president? Should the army chief not send such communiqué to the Defense Division, which can then forward it to the prime minister through the Foreign Affairs Division for review and communication to the foreign country if desirable? Or is the preponderant role of the military in all aspects of nation policymaking so firmly entrenched now that ordinary rules and procedures meant to regulate the affairs of the government are not meant to apply to khakis?

And then most disconcerting are disclosures regarding the army chief's conversations with the US ambassador that squarely fall beyond the zone of legality and are inimical to the cause of constitutionalism, rule of law and democracy in Pakistan. At least two such conversations merit comment. One, the reported discussion that at the peak of the lawyers' movement the army chief insinuated that he might be forced to 'persuade' Asif Zardari to step down as president in the event that the lawyers' long march gets out of control, and pontificated about appropriate replacements. And two, the reported conversations that our army chief was perturbed by the delay being caused by the PPP government in formalising an immunity deal for General Musharraf and wished the Americans to prod the civilian government to confirm such deal on the promise of which the army chief had sought General Musharraf's resignation on behalf of the army.

What means, one wonders, would the army chief have to persuade Asif Zardari to resign as president of Pakistan, other than the barrel of a gun and his monopoly over the use of force in the country by virtue of being the army chief? Would such persuasion not be unconstitutional? Further, what does it mean for the army chief to be the guarantor of a deal (with the US Government being a counterparty) that General Musharraf, the former president and army chief, will be offered absolute immunity? What would General Musharraf be immune from? Would he be protected against the ordinary application of the laws of Pakistan? All of us know that General Musharraf broke the law and molested the Constitution for a second time on November 3, 2007, and the Supreme Court has also declared as much. Does the immunity deal mean that no court or civilian government will be allowed to prosecute General Musharaf for adulterating the Constitution? Does it mean that no one can investigate General Musharraf's role in Benazir Bhutto murder case? Does it also mean that General Musharaf can never be tried for his alleged role in the Bugti murder case? 

 

In his capacity as an officer of the armed forces and army chief, General Kayani swore an oath to protect and defend the Constitution of Pakistan, which promises equality before law to all citizens of the country. Could it have occurred to General Kayani that his efforts to shield his predecessor from the application of the laws of Pakistan (inspired by his sense of camaraderie and allegiance to the army's institutional interests) might be in conflict with the letter and spirit of the Constitution of Pakistan? Has our history of repeated military intervention in politics resulted in the evolution of a concept of military professionalism that does not envision undermining loft conceptions of rule of law, civilian authority and constitutionalism as a vice? How do we go about strengthening rule of law in this country if khaki response to disclosures of legal and procedural impropriety is not regret and introspection, but self-righteousness laced with stubborn denials?

(To be continued)

The writer is a lawyer based in Islamabad. Email: sattar@post.harvard.edu

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

FISCAL DISCIPLINE BEYOND RGST

DR ASHFAQUE H KHAN

Pakistan has requested the IMF for a nine-month extension in the $11.3 billion programme expiring on Dec 31, with a view to complying with the remaining performance criteria. How to utilise such a breathing space in addressing the issue of fiscal discipline, in particular implementation of the RGST? 

Pakistan is on the brink of bankruptcy. Even if it gets an extension in the IMF Programme, it will not receive the remaining tranches unless it delivers on the promises it has made to the IMF. Resources from other development financial institutions may not be forthcoming in the midst of suspended, though extended, IMF Programme. What should Pakistan be doing in such an environment? In the event of uncertain external inflows, it is imperative that the government keeps its revenue-expenditure gap as low as possible.

Pakistan needs to be doing the following things until the expiry of the IMF Programme's extension. Firstly, Pakistan needs to handle the RGST issue in two phases. In phase 1, it must withdraw the existing exemptions from the GST by simply issuing an SRO. Items consumed by the poor, such as food, basic medicines and books, should remain exempt from the GST. This could be done immediately, so that additional resources can be mobilised in the current fiscal year.

Secondly, the government must address the reasons for resistance to the RGST, so that it can gain political support before presenting the RGST bill in the National Assembly. In this connection, the government must take steps to bring income originating from agriculture under the direct tax net. How should it proceed?

It is commonly argued that agricultural income tax is a provincial subject. Let this remain a provincial subject. The provincial governments may ask the FBR to collect income tax from agricultural income as it has agreed to do in the case of collecting the RGST from services. The FBR will collect income tax on behalf of the provincial governments, deduct the collection charges and give the rest to provincial governments. The federal government must start consultation with provincial governments, so that the RGST can be implemented in the next budget.

Thirdly, full attention must now be devoted to improving the withholding tax regime. Withholding agents are collecting taxes from people but not depositing these amounts in the government's account fully. According to one calculation, there is pilferage of Rs250-300 billion per annum on this account alone. 

Fourthly, provincial tax effort has been on the decline for two decades. The provincial tax-to-GDP ratio has declined from 1.0 per cent to 0.5 per cent of the GDP during the period. The ill-conceived new NFC Award has further eroded the incentives of the provincial governments to mobilise their own resources. The federal finance team must start consultations with the provincial governments and encourage them to improve their regime of property tax, motor-vehicle tax and stamp duty. 

Fifthly, opponents of the RGST have always argued that the government has not taken any concrete steps to tighten its own belt. The government must move to discipline its expenditure. The first thing the government could do is to reduce the size of the cabinet to 20-22 ministers. By doing so, the government can demonstrate its moral justification for the RGST's introduction.

Sixthly, fast-track privatisation of rotten public-sector enterprises (PSEs) is the need of the hour. The government has no capacity to run the bleeding PSEs which have become a drain on the national exchequer. The government injected Rs250 billion of taxpayers' money to keep them afloat. This amount will keep on rising. Nothing short of outright privatisation, even at Rs1.0 each, is the solution. After all, a rupee saved is a rupee earned. 

Seventhly, very little progress has been made on power-sector reforms even under the IMF Programme. The power-sector subsidy (Rs157 billion) has surpassed the revised federal PSDP (Rs140 billion). How long should we continue with an untargeted subsidy? Simply raising the power tariff is no solution. The present government has doubled the power tariff in the nearly three years it has been in office, but the problem persists. By simply raising power tariff we are financing the inefficiencies of PEPCO/WAPDA. The World Bank and the ADB should also be held responsible for this one-track policy.

Have we ever looked at the cost of giving free electricity to PEPCO/WAPDA employees? Have we ever undertaken an energy audit of PEPCO/WAPDA and the IPPs to identify fuel-guzzling power plants? Have we ever given targets to DISCOs in reducing line losses and power theft? Have we made any credible efforts to improve the finance department of PEPCO/WAPDA? We have chosen thus far the easiest way to handle the power sector. Simply raising power tariff has not worked, and it will not work in the future.

Eighthly, unless financial discipline is injected in the provincial governments, Pakistan's fiscal conditions will never improve. The new NFC Award has sowed the seeds of perpetual financial crisis in Pakistan. It will be a futile exercise to set a fiscal deficit target without any binding agreement on the part of the provincial governments. The federal finance team must come up with a solution as soon as possible. 

Pakistan's public finances are in total disarray. The laidback and lethargic attitude of the economic team has further compounded the difficulties. If we do not utilise the expected breathing space by taking measures listed above, the RGST is not likely to be passed by the National Assembly. IMF or no IMF, Pakistan must continue its effort to mobilise resources and maintain financial discipline, because this is the only way to rescue Pakistan from the verge of collapse.

The writer is director general and dean at NUST Business School, Islamabad.

Email: ahkhan@nbs.edu.pk

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

CEMENTING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

 

Dr Maleeha Lodhi The writer is a former envoy to the US and the UK, and a former editor of The News.
The contrast could not have been more telling. China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, praised Pakistan's efforts to fight terrorism, against the backdrop of unremitting Western and Indian criticism that Pakistan had not done enough to address the threat.

In a speech to the joint session of parliament at the conclusion of his three-day visit to Islamabad, the Chinese premier declared: "Pakistan has given great sacrifices and made great efforts in the fight against terrorism." "This is a well-known fact," he said, and pointedly urged the international community to respect and "support Pakistan's efforts."

The political unanimity demonstrated in parliament and the unprecedented reception accorded to Wen Jiabao reflected the firm national consensus that undergirds Sino-Pakistani relations. The strategic quality of the relationship derives from the support it enjoys from the people of the two countries. This sets it in sharp relief to Islamabad's ties with other big powers, which are valued more by the leadership than by the public.

The significance of Prime Minister Wen's remarks to parliament should be seen in the background of escalating US demands on Pakistan to help NATO's faltering war effort in Afghanistan. The expression of political solidarity by the Chinese leader was aimed at bolstering Pakistan's position in the face of these pressures, and signal that Beijing, for one, would stand firmly by Pakistan through what Premier Wen described as "tough times." 

The joint communique contained a meaningful reference to the "respect" of the Chinese leader for the "Counter-terrorism strategy constituted and implemented by Pakistan in [the] light of its own national conditions." For the Pakistani public Wen's repeatedly voiced commitment to "stand together" with Pakistan was a reassuring sign that Islamabad had options in its foreign policy despite the US-centric approach pursued in recent years. 

The Pakistani leadership, for its part, chose its words carefully to match Chinese gestures and exchange statements of mutual appreciation. "China," said Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, was Pakistan's "most trusted and reliable friend." Opposition leader Chaudhri Nisar Ali Khan expressed similar sentiments. 

Prime Minister Wen's visit did more than provide much-needed diplomatic support for an ally under pressure that served to raise the nation's morale. It sought to elevate the partnership by the promise of greater coordination at the global level. This is what was meant by the emphasis placed by the Chinese visitor in his public statements about the Sino-Pakistani relationship having evolved from the bilateral to the regional and global plane. 

The seven-page joint statement referred to the fact that "China-Pakistan relations have gone beyond bilateral dimensions and acquired broader regional and international ramifications." It also contained the agreement to establish a leadership level annual consultation mechanism. This reflected the priority Beijing attaches to Pakistan in its global agenda and suggested that consultations will take place across the board on issues of mutual concern.

This affirmation of a global partnership has added significance in the context of the shifting international balance of power marked by China's growing economic and political clout. For Islamabad this holds out the prospect of coordinating more strategically with a diplomatically assertive Beijing at multilateral forums to advance mutual goals, including UN Security Council reform, on which the two countries have "common interests," as Wen acknowledged in his speech.

The visit also aimed at diversifying the bilateral relationship from the traditional focus on defence and military cooperation towards greater economic, trade and investment ties, including help for Pakistan's critical infrastructure needs.

The message to Islamabad – both in private and public – was that China would help Pakistan develop its inherent economic strength while stressing the need for it to chart its own development path rather than rely on "outside" prescriptions.

The Chinese offer to help in the energy sector was recognition of Pakistan's pressing priority. An energy cooperation mechanism is to be established to advance cooperation in conventional, renewable and civil nuclear energy. This will include Chinese assistance to upgrade Pakistan's national electricity grid and undertake large hydroelectric projects, as well as continue collaboration on the Chashma III and IV civilian nuclear projects. 

Agreements and MOUs covering other projects and deals worth an estimated $30 billion were signed during the visit. They included $10 billion of trade deals. Current bilateral trade remains modest at $7 billion but is expected to more than double in five years due to robust annual growth and plans to further liberalise and expand trade under existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on goods, investment and services. Beijing's assent to give Pakistan unilateral concessions on 286 products is designed to provide market access to boost Pakistani exports.

The emphasis in future trade and infrastructure cooperation on promoting development in border areas and establishing trans-border economic zones reflected the common strategic vision of the two countries to link China's western region to Pakistan's southern coast and to commercially bind Pakistan more closely to China's expanding economy. Indeed, with the signing of the new agreements, Pakistan emerged as the top destination for Chinese investment in South Asia.

In the military realm, greater collaboration is envisaged on a number of projects to help enhance Pakistan's own defence capabilities, as well as increase cooperation in joint production and Research and Development. While the joint communique is deliberately silent on ongoing and future projects, cooperation involving all three armed services will continue as the Pakistan military comes to increasingly count on Chinese equipment and defence technology.

The emphasis in the joint communique on maritime security is expected to chart a new area of cooperation. Expanded cooperation will also include high-tech areas as well as space sciences and technology, for which a framework agreement is already in place.

The elaborate roadmap of enhanced cooperation should help to give an already robust relationship a new strategic direction in the context of regional and global transformations underway. They include realignments being driven by the intensifying strategic power play among the world's big powers, amid growing indications of an evolving US strategy to contain China's rise.

President Barack Obama's recent tour of Asia served to confirm that Washington was now embarked on implementing this strategy. The nature of this tour – to India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan – and policy pronouncements, such as the US offer to "mediate" ocean border disputes in South-east Asia, its stance on the turbulence in North-east Asia and on the currency dispute with Beijing, are all signs of a more overt policy to contain China.

Obama's visit to India indicated a renewed US strategic tilt towards Delhi as part of the effort to build India as a counterweight to China. Not only did the American president endorse India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council, he also pledged to support India's membership of four multilateral export-control regimes, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group and ease controls on high-tech exports to India. Islamabad saw each of these moves as further enlarging the inequality of US treatment of India and Pakistan on the nuclear issue.

Together with other developments these have been viewed by Pakistan as impacting negatively on its national interests. These perceptions shaped deliberations at the recent meeting of the National Command Authority chaired by the prime minister. A statement issued at its conclusion reiterated Pakistan's concern over policies and trends of "selectivity and discrimination in strategic export control regimes" and signal opposition to any effort to undermine its "strategic deterrence" capability.

From this perspective, the rejection by Prime Minister Wen in private discussions and in his parliament speech of "double standards" in international relations was perceived by Islamabad to enhance prospects of evolving a joint position with Beijing on such issues in key multilateral forums.

In sum, Premier Wen's visit not only cemented strategic ties but drew the two countries even closer together to manage common challenges and the ramifications of great-power manoeuvres to adjust to a world of shifting global power.

 

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

CEMENTING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

DR MALEEHA LODHI THE WRITER IS A FORMER ENVOY TO THE US AND THE UK, AND A FORMER EDITOR OF THE NEWS.

 

THE CONTRAST COULD NOT HAVE BEEN MORE TELLING. CHINA'S PRIME MINISTER, WEN JIABAO, PRAISED PAKISTAN'S EFFORTS TO FIGHT TERRORISM, AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF UNREMITTING WESTERN AND INDIAN CRITICISM THAT PAKISTAN HAD NOT DONE ENOUGH TO ADDRESS THE THREAT.

In a speech to the joint session of parliament at the conclusion of his three-day visit to Islamabad, the Chinese premier declared: "Pakistan has given great sacrifices and made great efforts in the fight against terrorism." "This is a well-known fact," he said, and pointedly urged the international community to respect and "support Pakistan's efforts."

The political unanimity demonstrated in parliament and the unprecedented reception accorded to Wen Jiabao reflected the firm national consensus that undergirds Sino-Pakistani relations. The strategic quality of the relationship derives from the support it enjoys from the people of the two countries. This sets it in sharp relief to Islamabad's ties with other big powers, which are valued more by the leadership than by the public.

The significance of Prime Minister Wen's remarks to parliament should be seen in the background of escalating US demands on Pakistan to help NATO's faltering war effort in Afghanistan. The expression of political solidarity by the Chinese leader was aimed at bolstering Pakistan's position in the face of these pressures, and signal that Beijing, for one, would stand firmly by Pakistan through what Premier Wen described as "tough times." 

The joint communique contained a meaningful reference to the "respect" of the Chinese leader for the "Counter-terrorism strategy constituted and implemented by Pakistan in [the] light of its own national conditions." For the Pakistani public Wen's repeatedly voiced commitment to "stand together" with Pakistan was a reassuring sign that Islamabad had options in its foreign policy despite the US-centric approach pursued in recent years. 

The Pakistani leadership, for its part, chose its words carefully to match Chinese gestures and exchange statements of mutual appreciation. "China," said Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, was Pakistan's "most trusted and reliable friend." Opposition leader Chaudhri Nisar Ali Khan expressed similar sentiments. 

Prime Minister Wen's visit did more than provide much-needed diplomatic support for an ally under pressure that served to raise the nation's morale. It sought to elevate the partnership by the promise of greater coordination at the global level. This is what was meant by the emphasis placed by the Chinese visitor in his public statements about the Sino-Pakistani relationship having evolved from the bilateral to the regional and global plane. 

The seven-page joint statement referred to the fact that "China-Pakistan relations have gone beyond bilateral dimensions and acquired broader regional and international ramifications." It also contained the agreement to establish a leadership level annual consultation mechanism. This reflected the priority Beijing attaches to Pakistan in its global agenda and suggested that consultations will take place across the board on issues of mutual concern.

This affirmation of a global partnership has added significance in the context of the shifting international balance of power marked by China's growing economic and political clout. For Islamabad this holds out the prospect of coordinating more strategically with a diplomatically assertive Beijing at multilateral forums to advance mutual goals, including UN Security Council reform, on which the two countries have "common interests," as Wen acknowledged in his speech.

The visit also aimed at diversifying the bilateral relationship from the traditional focus on defence and military cooperation towards greater economic, trade and investment ties, including help for Pakistan's critical infrastructure needs.

The message to Islamabad – both in private and public – was that China would help Pakistan develop its inherent economic strength while stressing the need for it to chart its own development path rather than rely on "outside" prescriptions.

The Chinese offer to help in the energy sector was recognition of Pakistan's pressing priority. An energy cooperation mechanism is to be established to advance cooperation in conventional, renewable and civil nuclear energy. This will include Chinese assistance to upgrade Pakistan's national electricity grid and undertake large hydroelectric projects, as well as continue collaboration on the Chashma III and IV civilian nuclear projects. 

Agreements and MOUs covering other projects and deals worth an estimated $30 billion were signed during the visit. They included $10 billion of trade deals. Current bilateral trade remains modest at $7 billion but is expected to more than double in five years due to robust annual growth and plans to further liberalise and expand trade under existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on goods, investment and services. Beijing's assent to give Pakistan unilateral concessions on 286 products is designed to provide market access to boost Pakistani exports.

The emphasis in future trade and infrastructure cooperation on promoting development in border areas and establishing trans-border economic zones reflected the common strategic vision of the two countries to link China's western region to Pakistan's southern coast and to commercially bind Pakistan more closely to China's expanding economy. Indeed, with the signing of the new agreements, Pakistan emerged as the top destination for Chinese investment in South Asia.

 

In the military realm, greater collaboration is envisaged on a number of projects to help enhance Pakistan's own defence capabilities, as well as increase cooperation in joint production and Research and Development. While the joint communique is deliberately silent on ongoing and future projects, cooperation involving all three armed services will continue as the Pakistan military comes to increasingly count on Chinese equipment and defence technology.

The emphasis in the joint communique on maritime security is expected to chart a new area of cooperation. Expanded cooperation will also include high-tech areas as well as space sciences and technology, for which a framework agreement is already in place.

The elaborate roadmap of enhanced cooperation should help to give an already robust relationship a new strategic direction in the context of regional and global transformations underway. They include realignments being driven by the intensifying strategic power play among the world's big powers, amid growing indications of an evolving US strategy to contain China's rise.

President Barack Obama's recent tour of Asia served to confirm that Washington was now embarked on implementing this strategy. The nature of this tour – to India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan – and policy pronouncements, such as the US offer to "mediate" ocean border disputes in South-east Asia, its stance on the turbulence in North-east Asia and on the currency dispute with Beijing, are all signs of a more overt policy to contain China.

 

Obama's visit to India indicated a renewed US strategic tilt towards Delhi as part of the effort to build India as a counterweight to China. Not only did the American president endorse India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council, he also pledged to support India's membership of four multilateral export-control regimes, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group and ease controls on high-tech exports to India. Islamabad saw each of these moves as further enlarging the inequality of US treatment of India and Pakistan on the nuclear issue.

Together with other developments these have been viewed by Pakistan as impacting negatively on its national interests. These perceptions shaped deliberations at the recent meeting of the National Command Authority chaired by the prime minister. A statement issued at its conclusion reiterated Pakistan's concern over policies and trends of "selectivity and discrimination in strategic export control regimes" and signal opposition to any effort to undermine its "strategic deterrence" capability.

From this perspective, the rejection by Prime Minister Wen in private discussions and in his parliament speech of "double standards" in international relations was perceived by Islamabad to enhance prospects of evolving a joint position with Beijing on such issues in key multilateral forums.

In sum, Premier Wen's visit not only cemented strategic ties but drew the two countries even closer together to manage common challenges and the ramifications of great-power manoeuvres to adjust to a world of shifting global power.

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I. THE NEWS

OPINION

FLEETING MOMENTS

IFTEKHAR A KHAN

Almost all newspapers have quoted Richard Holbrooke's last words to his surgeon: "You've to stop this [Afghan] war." His yearning for an end to the Afghan war has surprised many who only remember him as an emissary always badgering the Pakistani government to do more in FATA. Was Holbrooke's wish, when he was on his deathbed, a genuine change of heart, or was it because of the fear of the day of reckoning? 

Holbrooke, who is being eulogised for his service, began his diplomatic career at age 24 when in the 1960s he was posted in Vietnam during the war. And since then as a diplomat he continued to fight and engage in wars the US decided to launch in any region of the world. As assistant secretary to Jimmy Carter, Holbrooke supported the Islamic Mujahideen against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, with the US equipping them with Stinger missiles. They were referred to as Mujahideen when they fought against the Russians; resisting the American occupation now, the same Mujahideen are reviled as Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorists.

Holbrooke also served as special envoy in South Korea in 1980 when he backed the South Korean army's putting down the rebellion by students and workers demanding democracy. Three thousand South Koreans were killed in the crackdown.

But how could Holbrooke wish to end the war when he was instrumental in persuading President Obama to send an additional 30,000 troops to bolster the American military force deployed in Afghanistan? Holbrooke, known in Washington's diplomatic circles as a "bureaucratic black belt," is gone to the Great Beyond. But his relentless "do more" formula for Pakistan persists. 

 

Foreign and defence policies of global powers don't change with the change or demise of individuals tasked to enforce them. The individuals at the helm may come and go, the new players may have different mindsets compared to their predecessors', but the show goes on. 

For instance, Tony Blair was known for his theatrics and fibs, while Gordon Brown appeared calm, composed, and rather bemused. Yet the UK's foreign policy remained unchanged, despite the change of prime ministers. George Bush's personality was different from Barack Obama's because of Bush's wealthy and elitist background. While Bush wanted to annihilate Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, no matter how long it took to do that, Obama's election promise was to pull out of Afghanistan by 2011 and close down the notorious Gitmo prison. 

He reneged on both after becoming president. Perhaps the lobbies of various interest groups, considering him a weak president, prevailed upon him. Would the manufacturers of military hardware like the wars to end? Would Lockheed Martin, manufacturers of Hellfire missiles, and General Atomics, manufacturers of Predator and Reaper drones that fire these missiles, like the wars to end? Would Blackwater, renamed Worldwide Xe, and the mercenary army led by former CIA veterans and marines, like the wars to end? Never! 

Clearly, Holbrooke had pursued the Af-Pak policy without encumbering his conscience with the loss of life of thousands of innocent people in Afghanistan in the last nine years. Nor did he care about the fallout of the war on Pakistan, particularly the deaths caused by drone strikes in the tribal region. 

He wasn't even concerned about young American soldiers returning home in body bags and thousands more incapacitated for life. However, if the late diplomat, as frontrunner of the Af-Pak policy, realised the futility of the Afghan war on his deathbed, the United States must pay heed to his last words and make a new beginning in the New Year by pulling out of Afghanistan. 

The writer is a freelance contributor based in Lahore. Email: pinecity@gmail.com

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

DREAMS OF BB

 

HOW time fleets! Popular leader and former Prime Minister Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in mysterious circumstances three years back but the memories of the agonising tragedy are still afresh. It was not only a big loss for Pakistan Peoples Party, which was deprived of its charismatic and visionary leader but it was a loss for the Pakistani nation as a whole. 

Indeed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto had emerged as a leader par excellence who enjoyed not only immense respect at home but was also recognised the world over because of her qualities of head and heart. It would not be an exaggeration to say that she was a face of Pakistan and therefore December 27, 2007 was one of the blackest days in the history of the country when the leader of her stature was removed from the scene under a deep-rooted conspiracy. It is all the more tragic that instead of the fact that her PPP was in power for the last three years, there is hardly any progress in her murder case and we are still beating about the bush. We are as clueless about circumstances that surrounded her assassination as we were before and there are fears that the investigations are being pushed to a dead end. It is because of this that people have lost faith in the ability or will of the Government to unmask those who perpetrated the crime and instead an impression is fast gaining ground that attempts are underway to make some people scapegoats. In this backdrop, it is no surprise that the demand for a fair probe and unmasking of the real culprits dominated the activities marking the 3rd anniversary of BB's assassination. Anyhow, we wish at least the PPP Government should have moved towards realisation of the philosophy of the late leader, which she inherited from her legendary leader Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Politics of both ZAB and BB centred around people and their welfare and one must say that they embraced Shahadat for the same cause but regrettably the incumbent Government has done almost nothing for the masses during the last three years except giving them price hike, unemployment, corruption, mismanagement, lawlessness and sense of insecurity. Rulers are only paying lip-service to the people and their problems that are complicating more with the passage of time. BB must be feeling uneasy over what her party is doing to the poor.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

FABULOUS WHEAT EXPORT POTENTIAL

 

AS per decision of the Federal Government, both Punjab and Sindh Governments are preparing to sell surplus wheat for export to make room for physical and fiscal space before arrival of the next wheat crop in coming March. According to reports, Punjab is to export about three million tonnes while Sindh has 0.6 million tonnes for the purpose.

We have been emphasising in these columns that Pakistan has inherent strength to withstand crises and grow and prosper. Wheat export plans are just another evidence of that, as the country is going to sell the surplus despite losses of wheat stocks during devastating floods. This is indeed good news and is reflective of the great potential in the country's agricultural sector as well as livestock. Pakistan has fertile land, elaborate network of irrigation canals and is considered to be fifth largest milk producing country. However, so far we have not been able to take full advantage of our agricultural and livestock sectors due to poor planning, slow pace of modernisation and allocation of meagre resources for research and development. No doubt, the country produced a bumper wheat crop last year but unfortunately we don't have adequate, hygienic and scientific storage facilities as a result of which we not only lost large quantities in floods but are forced to sell the surplus at throw-away prices to create space for new crop. This aspect needs to be taken care of on a priority basis if we are genuinely interested in making a headway in agriculture. Similarly, we are just throwing our milk to drains in the absence of dependable and modern collection and processing mechanism whereas we can earn billions if we focus on value addition. We would also caution that the authorities concerned should minutely assess the situation before going for wheat export as delayed rains are likely to harm our next crop significantly in Barani areas. 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

EDITORIAL

WORLD HAS TO RECOGNISE PALESTINE

 

AN Israeli Cabinet Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer has warned the government that the entire world could recognise a Palestinian State within a year as the Jewish State is adamant to resume negotiations for a final solution on its own conditions. South American countries Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia have formally recognised the Palestinian State within the 1967 borders while Uruguay said it would do so early in 2011. 

Since 1975 Brazil has recognised the PLO as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The recognition came after a letter sent by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Brazilian President Lula asking for the recognition of a Palestinian State. Following in Brazil's footsteps Argentina announced the recognition a "free and independent" Palestinian State. The Argentine Foreign Ministry said the move was designed to help definitively advance the negotiation process that would lead to the establishment of a just and lasting peace in the Middle East. The recognition by the South American countries of the Palestinian State indicates that the world conscience is awakening to the sufferings of the Palestinians who are giving sacrifices of their blood and passing the lives of refugees in different parts of the world. Though the Israeli Minister for Industry and Trade's warning to the government is a belated one, it also shows that there is a realisation in Tel Aviv as well that the delaying tactics in peace negotiations are causing more harm to Israel. According to reports France and Spain are laying the political groundwork for the European Union to recognise a Palestinian State, possibly as early as October 2011 even if negotiations for a permanent settlement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are not concluded. EU is often described as a "payer but not a player" in the Middle East and there is a need that it must work more aggressively in bringing about Palestinian statehood. It is strange that in the 21st century the buzzword is human rights but the world is refusing these rights to the Palestinians which is duplicity and cruelty. We therefore believe that if the world leaders are really and genuinely interested in peace, Palestinian and other causes of tension be settled at the earliest as time is of great essence.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

PROVE HIM INNOCENT QUICKLY..!

ROBERT CLEMENTS

 

"…DMK plans- Raja is innocent campaign…" Hindustan Times, Dec 23^rd

The biggest scamster In Indian history, who has allegedly master minded the fraud of nearly two hundred thousand crore rupees is now going to be defended by his boss and his political party. I sauntered across to the headquarters of the party in Chennai and met one of their senior political leaders, "How are you going to defend Raja?" I asked.

"We will put thousands of full page advertisements in all the national newspapers saying he is innocent!" "That will cost a lot of money!" I said. "It will be taken from the 2 G account!" said the senior leader. "Ah! Of course!" I said. "What else?"

"We will get it passed in Parliament that he is innocent!" said the senior leader. "But most of the MP's are baying for his blood," I pointed out. "MP's can be bought!" said the senior leader. "That will cost a lot of money," I said. "It will be taken from the 2 G account!" "Ah! Of course!" I said. "We will also get the people in Tamilnadu to protest, they will all go to Delhi in trucks, trains and planes!"

"That will cost…Ah! Of course," I said quickly, "It will be taken from the @ G account, right?" "Right!" said the senior party leader beaming at me. "When do you plan to put the ads in the newspapers, buy the MPs and take all of Tamilnadu to Delhi?" I asked.

"We have already started!" "Why the hurry to prove his innocence?" "Everyday that he is being named guilty is causing the party much damage!" "How's that?" I asked. "There is the 3 G auction!" "Yes!" I said. "The 4 G

uction!"

"Of course," I said. "The 5 G auction!" "How could I forget!" I said. "So many auctions, and if he is not proved innocent quickly, it will do much damage…" "To what?"

"To our party coffers, then we will not have the money to prove all our other rajas in other different ministries innocent, so it is essential.." "That he is proved innocent quickly..!" I said, as he beamed at me.

—Email: bobsbanter@gmail.com

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLES

INDIA'S SHOPPING SPREE & APPALLING POVERTY

MOHAMMAD JAMIL

 

India is on a shopping spree with more than $100 billion in hand, and entering into defence deals left, right and centre. After signing nuclear deal with the US, Nuclear Suppliers Group's countries are ready to sell materials and equipment to India. Apart from France, Britain, Germany, Japan - and strong opponent of nuclear proliferation – eyes the lucrative market; and they all are drooling to benefit from India's economic development and prodigious indicators of economic growth. But they would not cares less that India as a state is rich but it is land of appalling poverty where more than 400 million people are living below a meanly defined poverty line. Multi-millions are living in slums and sleeping on the footpaths, because Indian government is diverting a very large part of its resources to become a world power and member of United Nations Security Council. Its human rights record is also dismal, as human Watch reports often point out about the violence against 150 million former untouchables, other minorities and the people of Indian Held Kashmir. Other human rights organizations regularly publish atrocities committed on Christians, Muslims and Dalits. Kashmiris are, however, the worst sufferers on earth, perhaps only second to Palestinians. 

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, launched a fierce attack on Pakistan during his recent visit to India, accusing Islamabad of allowing terrorist groups to form safe havens in its territory. He said terrorist groups were free to launch attacks on India and NATO troops in Afghanistan from Pakistan, which is not acceptable. His comments echoed those made by British Prime Minister David Cameron who during his visit to India in end July 2010 had said that Pakistan could not be allowed to "look both ways" or export terrorism to its neighbours. During her visit to India in July this year Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel in reply to a question said: "India is suffering as a consequence of terrorist attacks. We still remember the attack in Mumbai. At that time we criticised what was done by these perpetrators. We want to do whatever we can to ensure that these terror attacks are not repeated." It is true that foreign relations are no altruistic pursuit but extremely self-centered, self-serving motivated actions. But it is difficult to imagine that heads of above three European countries could stoop so low as to issue statements against Pakistan just to please India just to sell their military hardware and other stuff to India. 

France signed worth $20 billion out of which 9.3-billion-dollar framework agreement was for selling two nuclear reactors to India during a trade-centred visit in July this year by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to New Delhi. Deals totalling 15 billion euros (20 billion dollars) were signed with Indian companies including a leasing agreement for 14 Airbus planes and the modernisation of 51 French-made Mirage fighter jets. "Negotiations (with Areva) have reached an advanced stage to pave the way for the launching of nuclear power reactors in partnership with Indian industry," Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had told a joint press conference with President Sarkozy. The deal is short of a final sale contract, but it means Areva has moved ahead of US and Japanese competitors in the race to sell reactors to India, which aims to tap atomic power for a quarter of its electricity demands by 2050. Sarkozy reiterated his support for India to have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council - a key foreign policy objective for New Delhi - and suggested it might simply upgrade its current temporary seat in 2012. India is to jointly build a surface-to-air missile with the second biggest weapons supplier Israel and hopes for such collaborations with the other countries. After signing civil nuclear agreement with the US, it will acquire nuclear plants to enhance its capability to make more nuclear devices. Last year, the USS Trentonn, the giant American landing platform dock, was inducted in Indian navy for which order was placed by India for Rs 215 crores in 2007. It was re-christened INS Jalashwa. The acquisition of the INS Jalashva was meant to enormously boost the sealift capability of the Indian Navy. It is equipped with four landing mechanised craft and can carry up to 1,000 troops along with vehicles, tanks, artillery, ammunition and tracked landing vehicles. India has also increased its defence budget, and is poised to spend at least $50 billion on installation of nuclear power plants, which will enhance its capacity and capability to increase it nuclear arsenal. After Indo-US nuclear deal, India has the capacity to increase from its current production capacity of six to 10 additional nuclear bombs a year to several dozen per year.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to India is the latest in a series of high-profile visits by leaders of almost all major countries. A slew of 30 agreements signed by the two sides, covering areas ranging from nuclear and space co-operation, defence and business to counter-terrorism and culture, shows the expanded scope of the relationship. The multi-million dollar programme for joint production of a fifth generation fighter aircraft could be a milestone in collaboration. India's traditional defence relationship with Russia was that of a customer, with Moscow meeting 70 per cent of its arms and equipment requirements. But the fighter aircraft programme takes it to a new level of partnership marked by joint development and collaboration. Russia has also offered the best terms in its defence deals, supplying India with technologies and hardware, like nuclear submarines, which other countries were not willing to give, and without restrictive conditions like end-user clauses. He also extended full support for India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and other bodies like the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The visit made it clear that bilateral ties are not only strong but are poised to become stronger. Germany is making a bid for selling Eurofighter Typhoon combat jets to India when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh goes to Berlin next month, a day-long trip that will focus on expanding the strategic relationship between the two would-be non-permanent members of the UN Security Council. Manmohan Singh visited Britain and Germany after attending India's summit with the 27-nation European Union (EU) in Brussels. This was the second visit by Manmohan Singh to Berlin since he became the country's prime minister over six years ago. Manmohan Singh and Merkel met recently at the G20 summit of major and emerging economies in Seoul. Manmohan Singh and Merkel are expected to focus on expanding defence relationship and enlarging the scope of their strategic dialogue on key global issues like UN reforms, the international financial crisis, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and climate change. Germany will contend that the Eurofighter offer is unique as it involves technology transfer and is likely to stress that it is ready to forego the End-User Monitoring Agreement (EUMA) that even India's close partners like the US insist on. 

New Delhi has recently allocated $11 billion to build and buy six new-generation submarines in what will be one of the biggest military contracts that India has signed. The Times of India has reported that the Defense Acquisitions Council, chaired by federal Defense Minister A.K. Antony, took the decision on the deal. A sum of $12 has been earmarked for the purchase of 126 multi-role fighters for the Indian Air Force. Six global aerospace companies, Lockheed Martin, Boeing (American), Dassault's Rafale (French), Gripen (Sweden), MIG (Russian) and Eurofighter Typhoon (a consortium of British, German, Italian and Spanish companies), are bidding for the deal. A fresh contract for aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov's refit for over $2.3 billion is also being negotiated with Moscow. India's Prime Minister is perched on a booming national economy and a lot of cash, which he is throwing around on massive arms' purchases and lucrative business deals to buy loyalties, votes for India's bid for UNSC, and for scurrilous slights that German Chancellor and French President have dealt Pakistan.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

QUAID-I-AZAM & THE KASHMIR ISSUE

FRIENDLY FIRE

KHALID SALEEM

 

In considering the vision of the Quaid-e-Azam vis-à-vis Kashmir, one needs only to allude to his assertion in which he called Kashmir the jugular vein of Pakistan. Now let us be clear, in making this assertion the Quaid was not making a rhetorical statement. The Quaid was not given to making rhetorical pronouncements. He was a realist; not an idealist. As a pragmatist and a jurist, he chose his words with care before uttering them; and he was a man of his word. Let us then apply our minds to what his assertion about Kashmir implied. 

The jugular vein and the body are mutually inter-dependant. Pakistan's life-blood – water – passes through Kashmir. Kashmir's life force – its commerce, its people's very livelihood, its cultural heritage – all lay through its contacts with what is now Pakistan. Both Kashmir and Pakistan have suffered all these years because of artificial man-made barriers between the two. 

Regrettably, the Quaid-e-Azam did not live long enough to influence the events that followed. The question that presents itself begging for an answer is: if he had lived for a few more years would he have allowed this issue to linger on for so long? We may do well to give this aspect some thought. Regrettably, the leadership that followed the Quaid singularly failed to live up to his ideals. Several issues - the Kashmir issue among them - that should have been tackled betimes and were not are a testimony to this. This is neither the time nor the occasion to go into the history of this issue. Suffice it to state that after the Quaid, successive leadership appear to have missed the bus.

The struggle of the people of the State predates the partition of what was then British India. Even before the British left, the people of the State had already asserted, through a valiant struggle, their inalienable right to decide their own future. When the matter landed in the Security Council of the United Nations, the World Body went on to put its stamp of approval on this fundamental right of the people of the Jammu and Kashmir. The right of self-determination of the people of the State of Jammu and Kashmir was guaranteed by the United Nations. As a result of the resolutions of the world body, four parties to the dispute were explicitly recognized: 1) The government of India; 2) The government of Pakistan; 3) The people of the State; and, by implication, 4) The international community, through the United Nations. Any movement towards a final settlement of the issue should, therefore, need to be endorsed by all the four parties. No one party has the right to unilaterally impose a settlement nor, in deed, to move the goal posts. This remains the internationally recognized position. 

Certain misconceptions and cobwebs that have clouded the issue need to be clarified and swept away. Firstly, this is by no means a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. While there is no bar on bilateral discussions or negotiations between the two countries, any decisions taken by them are not legally binding unless they are formally endorsed by the remaining two parties. Secondly, this is not a religious issue. The decisions of the United Nations are based on the universal fundamental human right of self-determination of all people of Jammu and Kashmir, irrespective of their religious denomination. The universal right of self-determination is a secular concept and it must be accepted and recognized as such. 

India has tried to present to the world that the Kashmiri resistance is being waged by so-called 'Islamic fundamentalists'. This is not correct. If the lid of Indian state military occupation were to be lifted, it would become evident that the Kashmiri resistance has a much wider base in the disputed state than what India's establishment would have the world believe. Thirdly, the Indian claim that the resistance inside the state is a result of so-called 'cross-border terrorism' stands exposed by the recent emergence of the 'intifada' of the young people of the state. Generation after generation of the people of the state has continued to render untold sacrifices against fearful odds. Had the struggle not been indigenous it would long have collapsed under its own weight. The fact that it hasn't should be seen and recognized by the international community. 

The Indian establishment has tried off and on to confuse the international community by comparing the Kashmir issue with the India-China border dispute. The two are not open to comparison. The India-China border dispute is about territory, while the Kashmir issue is about the fundamental human rights of some ten million people. You can freeze disputed territory but how can you freeze the genuine aspirations of ten million people? Here it must be admitted that part of the responsibility for the apathy of the international community vis-à-vis the Kashmir issue lies with the rather uninspiring diplomatic efforts of Pakistan. It is necessary to break out of the cocoon of defensive diplomacy and to be proactive in a world that is fast shrinking. Pakistan, as the smaller country, has more to lose, but India too cannot escape the consequences. 

The two countries must resolve to equitably settle the contentious issues between them, among them the Kashmir issue. The longer these issues remain unsettled, the more the chances of their emerging as festering sores, eating into the very vitals of the region. The world is moving very fast. Options are shrinking by the day. There is no time like the present. The leaderships of the two countries should do well to grasp the moment. In so far as Pakistan is concerned, an equitable settlement of the Kashmir issue would repay part of the debt we owe to the father of the nation.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

AFGHANISTAN: THE TAXING TOLL

I M MOHSIN

 

The loss of 700 men during the current month by the start of the last week stood out as the highest toll so far since the foreign forces attacked Afghanistan. There must be many more on the DI-list etc. As the Taliban have no access to any air-foce etc, their attacks tend to be focused

against their targets. Lacking the capacity to outsource the war to robots etc, they are obliged to pay a price for every expedition undertaken by them as th foreign troops are protected by security-apparatus whose technical power can't be matched by the most daring of the locals on the offensive. It is perhaps one reason which impels them to sacrifice their own lives to ensure that the 'enemy' also is made to pay a price for the 'occupation' of their country.

The Western media raise quite a hullaballoo whenever some report involving casualties among the foreign troops is made public. George w' Administration placed all kinds of restrictions on the projection of such reports in US. As the average American is not much bothered about whatever, generally, goes on abroad, it was easy for the neo-cons to sell a particular line of action to their public. Such a policy was also greatly helped by the paranoia spread by the Administration by means of false reporting as in the case of Anthrax and the British Airways bombing-threat scandal at the height of Iraq War and close to the re-election bid by the incumbent. While 9/11 remains a great human tragedy, the neo-cons exploited it to foster a mindset of fear and scare among their people for promoting their agenda. The results thereof are writ-large all over the world, generally, as Obama Administration finds it difficult to restore normalcy in the US policy as well as life at home. As the prevailing phobia rules the roost, particularly in the US, it tends to benefit many 'special interests'/ lobbies who support the same most vigorously. The principal beneficiary of the mess appears to be the 'Military-industrial complex' as defined by President Eisenhower in 1960. 

Trillions of $ are being spent on maintaining US armed forces abroad, particularly in Iraq/Afghanistan. This is so despite the awful economic downturn at home. Most of such lobbies are obliged to the Jewish lobby for their 'business as usual' through thick and thin. No wonder, the Isreali Prime Minister insulted US President on the issue of halting the Jerusalem settlements for a while to induce some confidence in to the talks meant to achieve peace in the region. It appears that on Palestine, so far, Israel, thanks to the strength/influence of the Jewish lobby, tends to dictate the US policy at work. There also appears to be indifference, if not collusion, on the part most Muslim countries in this matter. Israel appears to be surviving by committing atrocities not only against the occupied Palestinians but also peace-convoys etc despite world-wide ineffective condemnation of its conduct at the UN. The ambiguous statements issued by the US Administration in the wake of the Review of the Afghan war are making the 'confusion worse confounded.' History of Afghanistan shows clearly that winter being harsh in the country, most wars experience a lull on the part of the locals. As the attacks by the Taliban went down, mainly due to the weather factor, a spin was given by the foreign forces to claim that this was due to the 'success' of their operations including atrocious nightly bombing raids. No wonder the Taliban denounced the same as 'propaganda'. However, President Obama, who has a mastery over language, conceded that the gains made were 'reversible' in view the peculiar position of the war. He appears to be betting on Gen Petraeus' Iraq mantra to subjugate the South/East of Afghanistan. History and tradition do not warrant much success for the foreign troops, particularly now in the tenth year of war. 

The broad spectrum of comments on the current situation has been variegated. As per the latest polls, the average American treats the on-going war as lost, others maintain an aggressive stance despite the hole which their forces are digging. Admiral Mullen during his last visit here used tactical words to remind Pakistan to 'do more.' This appeared plausible as the 'review 'tried to make a scapegoat of Pakistan for the US' looming failure in the war despite its huge deployment of multinational troops. A certain retired Gen Jack Keane, possibly ignorant of the factual position, was naive enough to emphasize in relation to Pakistan, "Don't just put a finger in their chest, put a fist in their chest." Such bluster prompted the New York Times to highlight that the "U.S. Will Widen War On Militants Inside Pakistan," and "Pentagon Planning More Attacks With Drones And Commandos." The extravagant use of childish lingo can't help anybody who is fighting in Afghanistan. Greenway, an eminent American journalist writing under the caption, 'Dealing with Pakistan' has hit the nail on the head by advocating, "Too often, the American attitude is master to servant: We give you money now do what we say, and do it right now. " It is meaningful that the US President and his General-staff believe in exercising 'strategic patience' in tackling the terrible issues. 

US policy appears to conform to the idiom running with the jackal and hunting with the wolf. Gareth Porter in his column "US Plan for High-Risk Raids into Pakistan Is More Than Psywar" concludes from the media stance of various Administration officials that the search is for a "less

politically dangerous" option. It appears that Petraeus' strategy has been projected as a perfect lever for success and that could include launching raids in to Pakistan a la Cambodia. Anybody sitting in US can have day-dreams but history dictates that, like always in this area, "discretion is the better part of Valour". The Soviets also believed initially that they were the supreme power supported by their 'Afghan comrades' running a regime pn Kabul. 

On Christmas day, Bajaur saw about 50 people dying and many more injured in a suicide blast at the WFP office. Apparently it would not fit in to the cause in Afghanistan. Pakistanis are getting fed up with the murky war in which their people are dying as 'co-lateral damage' only. Raiding the FATA would change the nature of the war. History/traditions advocate that it could end up like digging a deadlier hole in this sensitive area. 

—The writer is a former Secretary Interior.

 

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PAKISTAN OBSERVER

ARTICLE

QUAID'S VISION OF PAKISTAN

RIZWAN GHANI

 

Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah wanted Pakistan to be a welfare state where there was justice, equality and fair play. In his July 1, 1948 State Bank Address he set a clear direction on the future economy of Pakistan. He said that we must evolve banking practices compatible with Islamic ideas of social and economic life. The economic system of the West is a disaster. It has failed to do justice between man and man and to eradicate friction from the international field and it was largely responsible for the two world wars. The Western world, in spite of its advantages, of mechanization and industrial efficiency is today in a mess. The adoption of Western economic theory and practice will not help us in achieving our goal of creating a happy and contended people. We must work our destiny in our own way and present to the world an economic system based on true Islamic concept of equality of manhood and social justice. We will thereby be fulfilling our mission as Muslims and giving to humanity the message of peace, which alone can save it and secure the welfare, happiness and prosperity of mankind. The ongoing economic crisis of America and Europe validates Jinnah's observations. In the address, he expected the State Bank to tackle increase in prices with success. He said that the abnormal rise in the cost of living has hit the poorer sections of society including those with fixed incomes very hard. The government should stabilize prices at a level that would be fair to the producer, as well as the consumer. Therefore, State bank should be returned under government control, replace western banking and economic system with Quaid's envisaged economic and banking system to help public grow prosperous, strengthen Pakistan's economy and return foreign loans and get rid of international donors.

Quaid-e-Azam wanted Pakistan to be a welfare state. On March 12, 1949, The Constituent Assembly of Pakistan adopted Objective Resolution, which contained principles for framing of the Constitution based on Islamic principles including welfare state. A welfare state strives hard to provide necessities of life like food, clothing, shelter and health services without any discrimination. The state is duty bound to do justice to everybody without favor or prejudice. It should help orphans, widows, the poor and the destitute from public fund. Good qualities of qchastity, integrity of character, mercy and compassion, forgiveness, fair play, modesty and humility, pleasant talk and politeness, sacrifice moderation, fraternity and brotherhood should be cultivated in the citizens. The state should provide free and compulsory education to all in the fields of social and cultural sciences, fine arts, physical sciences and take care of citizens character building through religious and moral instructions. Today, unfortunately, Quaid's vision of welfare state is under attack by the powers who want to privatize Pakistan's education institutions; change the curriculum under western pressure; fear unifying and standardization of the education system in line with Islamic teachings, eliminate two sets of law: one for the rich and powerful, and the other for poor and the weak. The welfare state stands for equitable distribution of resources which is also definition of modern governments. Pakistan needs to adopt Quaid's vision of a welfare state to become a shining example of success for the rest of the world.

Quaid-e-Azam defined national character for national building. In his first speech delivered on 11th August 1947, before the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan, he spelled out the challenges that citizens and the state of Pakistan were supposed to address. These included maintenance of law and order; elimination of corruption and black-marketing; upholding merit and eliminating nepotism; defying all sorts of discrimination, rendering sacrifice for nation building; eschewing violence; devising a purpose directed education system; overcoming odds with force of character and working extremely hard for the cause of nation building. Our leaders and citizens need to eliminate these tests to strengthen Pakistan. Quaid-e-Azam repeatedly said that if the new state of Pakistan fails to alleviate poverty and better the lot of her people, the idea of establishing Pakistan will lose its justification. He said that poverty is a disgrace to civilization; it is an insult to humanity. It is the basis of human sufferings. It means ill health, disease and unemployment. Pakistan is a land of plenty, but Pakistanis are among the poorest nations of the world, Allah has blessed Pakistan with fertile land, an excellent system of irrigation, a large variety of soils, climatic conditions suitable for all kinds of agriculture and inexhaustible minerals and human resources. But, unfortunately we have failed to make use of all these gifts for the benefit of our people. Those people who are preventing us from using our resources and undermining strength of our population as drag are enemies of the country. In step with Quaid's teaching, we must end poverty with help of our resources and population. 

Quaid stressed that Pakistan's foreign policy will be based on the principles of mutual respect and understanding with all countries of the world. He wanted that Pakistan should emerge as an honorable state in the comity of nations. Likewise, according to the 1973 Constitution, principles of foreign policy envisaged that the state shall endeavor to preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim countries based on Islamic unity. The Qu'ran is clear that non-Muslims can be partners but not your friends. Islamabad needs to review its foreign policies with respect to west after WikiLeaks, the fawning compliance to foreign dictations by our leaders, the continuous drone attacks, sanctions against Chinese nuclear companies for dealing with Pakistan and court cases in America against Pakistanis. Finally, Quaid gave us a clear vision. As a token of respect to our Quaid we need to put our act together to strengthen Pakistan, serve people and feed the poor.

 

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

FORGET THE FOCUS GROUPS, JUST EYEBALL THE VOTERS

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GOOD OLD-FASHIONED POLITICAL INSTINCT?

 

The revelation that Labor spent $31 million on market research in the year before the August election shows just how out of touch our 21st-century politicians are with the voters they seek to represent. It is hard to imagine Ben Chifley or Robert Menzies or even Bob Hawke finding it so difficult to divine the views of their constituents. These prime ministers had the sort of political antennae that seem to have gone missing as politicians turn to focus groups to determine their platform. The problem is not confined to Labor. John Howard spent almost as much, $30 million, in 2006-07, his final year in office. But Labor's 42 per cent spending increase in 2009-10 -- designed to read the public mood on broadband, welfare, climate change, health reform and the mining tax -- is particularly embarrassing for a party founded on engagement with "the common man". It is a long way too from the days when Mr Hawke and Paul Keating decided what Australians needed and then set out to persuade voters.

 

Not that Labor seems to have achieved much value for money, given the problems the Gillard government faced with its mining tax and the shambles over jettisoning the emissions trading scheme. And if focus groups gave us "cash for clunkers", the government really has been dudded. Julia Gillard's promise to subsidise people to update their cars ought to be consigned to the dustbin, along with other climate change programs -- such as Green Loans -- instituted by the Rudd government and which proved to be poor policy. Today's report that more than $1 billion of investment in wind farms is in limbo after another collapse in the price of renewable energy certificates is more evidence that while focus groups might love the idea of going green, translating that to policy is complex. While we're on Kevin Rudd, let's not forget the debacles over Grocery Choice and FuelWatch, which grew out of misjudgments of the issues that concerned voters and ended up as a national joke. His successor promised to get Labor back on track but the Prime Minister is having trouble hearing what voters really want. During the election campaign, Ms Gillard announced a big new rail link for western Sydney, only to discover that it cut no ice with voters jaded by 15 years of state Labor. In fact, her government is becoming adept at announcing populist policies that turn out not to be popular at all.

 

The Australian appreciates that political parties, like many commercial operations, will use modern research methods to assess the interests of clients. Focus groups can help organisations stay in touch with the market, but they can be dangerous if used to determine strategy. Politicians from both sides are increasingly career professionals who move through university and the party machine and enter parliament without much real-life experience.

 

Focus groups are no substitute for an authentic connection with constituents, and the parties know they must draw candidates from a broader pool. Time then to make 2011 the year for our elected representatives to get back in touch directly with voters. Politicians who are truly part of their own communities will find they have nothing to learn from focus groups.

 

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

A DISCRIMINATING DECISION

THE CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE OF WHETHER RELIGIOUS CHARITIES CAN DISCRIMINATE AGAINST SAME-SEX COUPLES WHO APPLY TO FOSTER CHILDREN REPRESENTS A CLASH OF COMPETING RIGHTS.

 

Churches claim the right to operate their services in accordance with their doctrinal beliefs. But civil libertarians point to the rights of gay people to enjoy the same privileges as other citizens, free from discrimination. In states allowing gay people to adopt children, that right can, of course, be exercised via non-church agencies.

 

In a democracy, controversial issues are best determined by elected representatives rather than by unaccountable judicial activists. This is why the NSW Administrative Decisions Tribunal was wise in its ruling that religious charities are allowed to bar gay foster parents. As the tribunal said, rather than representing a moral judgment about whether churches should discriminate in providing services for which they are funded publicly, the decision rested on the broad exemptions in the Anti-Discrimination Act relating to religious groups. These, it said " may be a matter which calls for the attention of parliament".

 

Were parliament to revisit the issue, members would need to consider such factors as the best interests of children, community sentiment and the fact that many churches would feel compelled to close children's services if secular laws forced them to violate their consciences by forcing them to accept gay foster and adoptive parents. In an ideal world, children's natural parents would decide who they wanted to care for their children in cases where a period of foster care was needed. That, however, is often not practical or possible.

 

Australia has long been enhanced by religious tolerance and the absence of sectarian conflict. Through their schools, hospitals and social services, churches have delivered quality services in accord with their principles. In contrast, the equilibrium of British society has been disturbed in recent years by a series of political and quasi-judicial decisions forcing churches to bow to anti-discrimination and other legislation. Adoption agencies have closed or disaffiliated with churches, and rows continue over who should attend church schools and what is taught. Australia would have much to lose by venturing down such a fraught, problematic path.

 

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THE AUSTRALIYAN

EDITORIAL

 

FOSTERING RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

 

JULIA Gillard has good reason to hold her ground as licensed clubs step up their campaign against the government's proposal.

 

That is, the government's proposal to mandate "pre-commitment" technology on poker machines in 2012 if the states fail to do so. The proliferation of poker machines in pubs in some states suggests that the gambling industry is rather good at getting its own way, especially when governments are too weak or too cash-strapped to resist. We trust the federal government is made of stronger stuff, but it should guard against rushing into half-baked measures that create problems and later have to be reversed.

 

Ultimately, individuals are responsible for their own spending, but pre-commitment technology fosters individual responsibility. Poker machines would be electronically linked across Australia, and players would be obliged to place a binding limit on how much they are prepared to lose. Such decisions are far better made in a rational manner before the first push of the button.

 

Offending the clubs and hotel lobbies will be deeply unpopular in sections of the Labor Party, which has long benefited from generous political donations from the industry. The states, which are more addicted to poker machines than the most hardened gambler, would also oppose any move that forced them to cut spending to offset the revenue losses that would flow from a reduction in gaming revenue, which provides virtual rivers of gold. In NSW, for example, gambling accounted for $1.6 billion last year, providing 8.6 per cent of revenue.

 

Pre-commitment technology would hardly be draconian in light of the Productivity Commission's finding that of the 600,000 Australians who play poker machines weekly, almost one in six players -- about 95,000 people -- are problem gamblers. The commission found that playing a single machine at high intensity, it was easy to lose $1500 in an hour -- a level of loss that hurts many families and individuals, especially in poorer outer-metropolitan suburbs and regional centres with heavy concentrations of pokies. The opposition wants pre-commitment to be voluntary. Unfortunately, it is the very people who most need help who would be likely to resist. Problem gambling and sensible poker machine regulation warrant a mature community debate, which is under way.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

WHAT'S YOUR POISON?

 

If we really wanted to wage a "war on drugs", this week wouldn't be a bad time to start. Between Christmas and New Year, Australians drink three times more than usual, which is a lot already. About 90 per cent of Australians over 14 drink alcohol, almost half of us cheerfully overestimate our ability to hold our liquor, and about 16 per cent of young Australian men imbibe more than 29 standard drinks in an average, non-festive week. Yet here's the paradox: Australians increasingly say they disapprove of drug use.

 

All drugs are not equal, nor should they be treated as such. There are plenty of legal addictions to be had: coffee, alcohol, tobacco, gambling, sleeping pills. But the stark dividing line between health-based approaches to the use and control of legal substances and the criminalisation of illicit drugs is neither logical nor effective.

 

As explained in the Herald yesterday by a former president of Brazil, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a respected Latin American inquiry into drugs on which he was co-chairman has concluded that prohibition in that region which supplies most of the world's cocaine and marijuana has merely shifted cultivation and drug cartels from one place to another, fanned gang wars and empowered criminal drug lords.

 

In nations which mainly import illicit drugs, raids and arrests have barely dented consumption - almost 40 per cent of Australians have used illicit drugs. In Asia, harsh penalties have filled prisons with injecting drug users with soaring HIV infection rates. Cardoso and his colleagues have called for a shift in thinking, to emphasise harm minimisation and reduction of consumption, while cutting the profit incentive for criminals and the glamour of illegality for users.

 

Australia has considerable expertise in harm reduction. Pioneering needle exchanges and injecting rooms in NSW skirt legal restrictions because they are medically supervised. In less than a decade, the state has saved $1.3 billion in health costs and much human suffering by preventing tens of thousands of HIV and hepatitis C infections and by referring many users to drug rehabilitation services.

 

Cardoso's message is important here in NSW. If, as expected, the Coalition wins power in the March election, it will arrive with pressure from its conservative factions for a harder line on illicit drugs. Before turning back down that road, Barry O'Farrell should take a look at experience, here and in places like Portugal, with approaches based on harm reduction, controlled supply, and treatment for chronic users. As it has been with tobacco, informed choice might well be a better weapon than prohibition.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

RUDD MUST PULL HIS HEAD IN

 

Must consult more, must consult more. If only this were the new year resolution running through Kevin Rudd's head. WikiLeaks has given us more evidence of Rudd's tendency to spring surprises, not only on the world but on his own colleagues and advisers - one that must be curbed if Rudd's tenure as foreign minister is not to end as dismally as his prime ministership.

 

We learn, via cables from the American embassy in Canberra, that Rudd's grand plan for a new Asia-Pacific Community in June 2008 caught most of the embassy's Australian government contacts ''off guard'' as it had Australia's closest allies. The envoy chosen by Rudd to promote the idea around the region, the retired Foreign Affairs department head Richard Woolcott, was told only three hours before. The idea had been ''percolating'' in Rudd's mind for some time, but had not been workshopped with any senior advisers or foreign counterparts.

 

Not surprisingly, it was pronounced stillborn by the Singaporeans and got at best a polite tolerance from Australia's other friends. This is not to say that Asia doesn't need a new strategic architecture, and that from our national interest the United States doesn't need to be included. Possibly galvanised a bit by Rudd's speech, the region is moving to an alternative model by building on the Association of South-East Asian Nations. It will be broad enough, and may be the best we can expect for a long while.

 

Even after the shattering rebuke of being sacked by his own party, though, Rudd does not seem to have learnt the lessons. His recent Middle East tour showed him springing surprises on friendly nations and probably his prime minister, Julia Gillard. In Egypt he called on Israel to open its nuclear reactor to international inspections and sign the non-proliferation treaty. Wrong place, wrong time, though one day it may be the right message: Israel has never insisted on a permanent right to nuclear weapons and would be amenable to a genuine, verifiable regional ban. With Iran, an NPT signatory, flouting accountability and pushing close to a weapons capability, it was an extraordinary call.

 

Combined with Rudd's embarrassing attention-seeking, it's a tendency that could seriously erode Australia's influence. Rudd needs to be reminded that he came to office not as a Talleyrand or Metternich, but as a former diplomat whose highest overseas position was second secretary. His department head, Dennis Richardson, must give this advice, and Gillard's cabinet must insist on consultation and its approval before any major steps in foreign policy.

 

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THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

EDITORIAL

BUSINESS HEROES TARNISHED AS PUBLIC TAKES A LESS ROSY VIEW

 

PERHAPS the most surprising outcome of 2010 for the business community was how quickly heroes became villains.

 

With Australia having dodged most of the bullets from the global crisis, and seemingly spent its way out of trouble with the federal government stimulus program, the year began on a hopeful note. Expectations were that the globe was in recovery mode, that markets had righted themselves, that lessons had been learnt and that the business misbehaviour that fuelled the crisis would be reined in by new rules and laws. As ever, that confidence was misplaced.

 

A rosy dawn became instead a red ink wash of euro zone countries struggling to repay money borrowed to prop up fragile banks and social infrastructure. First Greece and, later in the year, Ireland had to go cap in hand to their European Union partners to be bailed out. Their problems were only the most extreme, with others including Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium also wounded.

 

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A larger and more persistent and pervasive problem was the US, complimented in 2009 for its rescue actions but this year caught up in desperately trying to kick-start its economy by lowering the value of its dollar through printing more money and keeping interest rates at near zero. That brought it into conflict with trading partners that were being flooded by speculative investment money withdrawn from the US and pumped into countries offering juicier interest rates and the promise of a quick profit - such as Australia.

 

China was particularly resistant to raising the value of its currency to help the US. Food prices there were already soaring and the Beijing government feared rising unemployment and civil unrest if a higher renminbi meant jobs were lost because Chinese exports were no longer as cheap. For Australia, that surge of hot money, coupled with the continued billions flowing from mineral sales, has lifted our dollar to be level pegging with the US - a boon for importers but not as attractive for non-mineral exporters, such as farmers, whose products are priced in US dollars and are in less demand.

 

Ken Henry's tax review and Jeremy Cooper's redesign of superannuation were expected to provide the building blocks for more equitable and efficient ways of raising money for government coffers - and minimising how much of it would be drained off later to pay the pensions of an ageing population. More than 130 of Henry's ideas are still on the shelf. By contrast, almost 140 of Cooper's ''MySuper'' 177 are likely to be adopted.

 

The only substantive recommendation adopted out of 138 from Henry was to bring in a resource rent tax. Suddenly, the mining industry, which had been basking in the knowledge that demand for its iron ore, coal and other metals in Asia had been a key factor in keeping Australia's head above water in the financial storm of 2008, was not only being targeted as a major new source of revenue, but was being denounced for not meekly accepting it.

 

The ''right idea, wrong structure'' resource rent tax row not only turned billionaires into placard-waving protesters, but helped cost Kevin Rudd the prime ministership. In spite of his successor Julia Gillard's July truce agreement with miners, the shape of the tax is still not finalised. The government is now at loggerheads with the resource-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland over their rights to continue levying mineral royalties on miners.

 

Australia's major banks, perhaps resenting being displaced as Business Enemy No. 1 by the miners, destroyed whatever community goodwill they might have earned from being strong in the financial crisis. They had already exercised their muscle in 2009 by extracting juicy fees and rates from business customers for continuing to lend to them during the financial crisis. For the gain of clawing back a few miserable fractions of percentage points in interest charges on home loans, to fatten their profits from mortgages, the banks were vilified by politicians and public alike.

 

The outcry provoked Treasurer Wayne Swan to intervene with reforms to make it less mentally and financially painful to switch banks. An inquiry by former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser aims to report in 2011 on how bank accounts can be made portable. Bank bosses seemingly thumbed their noses at Swan's attempt to outlaw them ''signalling'' to one another their intended changes to interest rates, adopting a united front of displeasure (in what seemed a choreographed fightback) at the prospect of new regulations.

 

Other declines from grace, less far-reaching but certainly high-profile, included the crumpling of Telstra's share price to record lows, BP's polluting of the Gulf of Mexico and the corporate demise of David Jones chief Mark McInnes following a sexual harassment claim by a young employee. The case unfortunately detracted from the progress of a year when business seemed finally to be trying to redress the absurdly low ratio of women in executive and boardroom roles.

 

David Jones's loss was not, however, the worst thing in retailing. As 2010 closes, embattled shopkeepers have found a new ''villain'' - the internet shopper. Lacking the wind in their sails this year of government stimulus cheques being exchanged for flat-screen TVs, retailers are crying foul that no GST is being paid on overseas purchases. Some would call it merely canny consumerism.

 

Heading into 2011, the business community should be mindful that in a thoroughly wired world, where events happen at light-speed and reach exponentially larger audiences, arrogance and complacency are far more your enemies than fickle politicians or markets.

 

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY: RUSSIA'S POLITICAL PRISONER

 

As everyone who lives there knows, thieves in Russia don't exclusively belong in a jail. They belong in government

 

Vladimir Putin said, earlier this month, that a thief must be in jail. After his president, Dmitry Medvedev, said no official had the right to comment before a verdict had been reached, Putin said he was referring to the first conviction of the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, not the second,which took place yesterday. Even if we discount the flagrant breach of due process that Putin's comment constituted – it is only one of a lengthy list – his words rang hollow. As everyone who lives there knows, thieves in Russia don't exclusively belong in a jail. They belong in government. They are in and around the Kremlin. Every official, high and low, steals. Whether you end up in jail, in government or owning a chunk of Cyprus, London or Nice, stems ultimately from a political calculation. Get the politics right and you stay a very wealthy man, whether you have stolen assets or not.

 

The second trial against Khodorkovsky is not about theft. It is about fear: the fear of what would happen if this particular victim of misjustice were to be released now. Even before the prime minister spoke, the guilty verdict was a foregone conclusion. It will raise no eyebrows. But the length of sentence will, because on that hinges the personal political and business fortunes of the people who own Russia. It's not that Khodorkovsky is a popular man, or that Russians have forgotten his past as a Kremlin insider during Yeltsin's period of office. Nor is there any immediate risk that the several hundred who braved arrest outside the Moscow court house yesterday would become hundreds of thousands chanting "freedom" and "Russia without Putin" outside the prime minister's office. With this verdict the prosecution has stopped becoming merely farcical. It has ceased being a prosecution at all. It has become a persecution and Khodorkovsky has entered the ranks of politically repressed. As such, whenever he is released, he will be a magnet for all the other injustices suffered under this regime. No one will believe President Medvedev when he talks about the rule of law in Russia. With Khodorkovsky sitting in jail, the president's words remain empty rhetoric. But outside it, Khodorkovsky will be even more difficult for the Kremlin to deal with.

 

And so the real question of this trial has yet to be answered. More likely it has yet to be decided on. The prosecutors have called for a six-year sentence, which could keep the man in jail until late 2017, near the end of the six-year term of the next president. The timing of his release will not be decided by an independent judge weighing the evidence, the severity of the crime, and the danger posed by his release to the public. It will be decided by the president who will be weighing up the political danger posed to him by the clans who sent Khodorkovsky down. With Putin sitting on the fulcrum of power, balancing competing political, commercial and ministerial clans, the length of sentence Khodorkovsky receives will be the key indicator of which clan is currently calling the shots.

 

This is why it was important for the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, to weigh in last night. By saying that the case raises serious questions about selective prosecutions and about the rule of the law being overshadowed by political considerations, she was stating the blinding obvious. But as someone who pushed the reset button, and as a representative of an administration who pushed Start through congress, her words should resonate inside a Kremlin that has factored in the relationship with America as a foreign policy priority for Russia. President Barack Obama or Chancellor Angela Merkel are as good an ally as an unreformed Russia is likely to get. All the alternatives are worse, and the generation of toadies, like Silvio Berlusconi, are on their way out. This should not be lost on Putin as he plots his next move.

 

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

IN PRAISE OF … THE ABBEY ROAD CROSSING

 

Existential questions must not stand in the way of the season, nor frustrate appreciation of a special set of stripes

 

Consisting solely of Belisha beacons, daubs of white paint and stripes of untreated tarmac, the zebra crossing at Abbey Road was – on the face of it – an unusual choice for the Grade II-listed status conferred on it last week. But human beings will have their icons, and the image that adorned the Beatles' final masterwork was bound to become one of those – even without the myths that have become embedded in the famous photo. John's white suit was said to identify a clergyman, Ringo's sombre wear an undertaker, and George's denim a grave-digger, while a "coded" number plate allegedly indicated that Paul was dead, a seeming truth confirmed by the bare feet with which he stepped onto the crossing. All great fun, and enough to justify the listed status, the posing tourists and 24-hour CCTV that keeps a vigil there, except for one snag: it's not the same crossing at all. The council "moved" the road feature slightly south-east for reasons of traffic management in the 70s, and with new location, beacons and stripes it is surely a new crossing now. Or is it? As blade and handle are replaced in turn, it is never quite clear when the philosopher's knife is replaced. Have we not just celebrated the day of Jesus's birth, just a week before our calendars separately mark his 2011th birthday? Existential questions must not be allowed to stand in the way of the season, and nor should a fetish for precise identities and locations frustrate appreciation of a special set of stripes.

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THE GUARDIAN

EDITORIAL

STATIONS AND POETS: POETRY IN MOTION

 

Hull's Paragon and London's St Pancras are the only two British stations to commemorate poets with statues

 

Hull's Paragon station lies at the end of one of the quieter rail lines in the country: the city, like the trains, hits the buffers by the North Sea. In most regards, it could not be more different to London's St Pancras, the scrubbed up, shop-infested terminal for sleek services to Europe, whose departure boards promise connections to Antwerp, Aachen and Avignon rather than Bridlington. But the two stations do have something in common. They are the only ones in Britain to commemorate poets with statues: Philip Larkin in Hull, and John Betjeman at the end of the Eurostar platforms in London. Both statues were erected recently, models for what should be a campaign to bring rhyme to the rails. Christmas and new year journeys are a moment to think about who should be celebrated, and where.

 

Travel has become a clinical affair; motorways have numbers, not names, and trains have exchanged style for neon-lit efficiency. But Betjeman's statue in London, hat clutched to his head, staring up at the great roof of the station building he helped save, is a reminder that journeys should also involve the senses: he recognised, when others did not, the glory of Victorian railway architecture at its pomp, and wrote about it. Larkin, often sour, loved travel less, but in The Whitsun Weddings he captures the frustration many have felt this December at a slow train trip to a family event far away: "Not till about / One-twenty on the sunlit Saturday / Did my three-quarters-empty train pull out, / All windows down, all cushions hot, all sense / Of being in a hurry gone."

 

Every big town or city has its poet, and so every big station should too. Dylan Thomas in Swansea; WH Auden at Euston or, better still, Carlisle, near where his famous night train crossed the border; William Wordsworth should be on the little platform at Windermere, at the end of the line he objected to but which now does its best to keep cars away from the Lake District; Emily Brontë at Leeds; Thomas Hardy at Dorchester West. There are no longer trains through Derbyshire's Monsal Dale for John Ruskin to complain about – "now every fool in Buxton can be in Bakewell in half an hour and every fool at Bakewell in Buxton", he wrote when the line opened. But Newstead station has been reopened and is ready for Byron, whose home was two miles away.

 

William Blake should be at Westminster tube station. And Dundee? It should remember William McGonagall. "Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv'ry Tay! / Alas! I am very sorry to say / That ninety lives have been taken away", he wrote when the Tay Bridge collapsed: proof that great trains can inspire even bad poets.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

DEVOLUTION ACTION PLAN

 

A devolution strategy conference headed by Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Dec. 16 endorsed a draft action plan to transfer local bureaus of central government ministries to local governments. The government will submit relevant bills to the Diet in 2012 for transferring such local bureaus to bloc-wide federations of local governments. The government aims to achieve the transfer in fiscal 2014.

 

But the plan lacks concreteness. At this stage, there are no bloc-wide federations above prefectures and no sufficient discussions have been held on the shape of such federations. There is a federation in the Kansai region. But not all the prefectural governments in the regions have taken part in it.

 

There are about 300,000 national public servants. Of them, some 200,000 are now working at local bureaus of central government ministries. These bureaus are mainly managing and supervising public works projects pushed by the central government and engaged in the work of issuing various types of licenses. There is criticism that the work of many of these bureaus overlaps that of local governments.

 

The Democratic Party of Japan calls for turning Japan from a centralized state into a state in which local government will have much stronger power than now. It also calls for cutting the personnel cost for national public servants by 20 percent. The reform of local bureaus of central government ministries may contribute to reducing the personnel cost.

 

The draft plan says that local bureaus managing 1st-class rivers or national highways should be taken over by a prefectural government if the rivers or highways start and end within one prefecture. As to public employment security offices, the plan says that the central and local governments should set up joint consultative bodies and run them jointly for about three years.

 

Central government ministries should not put up resistance to transfer of local bureaus just to maintain their vested interests. Local governments on their part should have a strong sense of responsibility and enough ability to properly run local bureaus they take over.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

PROTECTING CHILDREN FROM ABUSE

 

A panel of the Legislative Council of the Justice Ministry has proposed revising the Civil Law so that parental prerogatives can be suspended for up to two years if doing so is desirable to protect children from neglect or abuse by their parents. The government hopes to submit a revision bill to the Diet next year.

 

According to the welfare ministry, child consultation centers handled more than 44,000 cases of child abuse in fiscal 2009, a record number and about 40 times more than in fiscal 1990. Under the current system, heads of child consultation centers can ask family courts to deprive parents of their parental prerogatives if they are misusing their parental prerogatives or misconducting themselves to an extreme degree. Under law, the deprivation is permanent.

 

In fiscal 2009, there were only 21 cases of deprivation of parental prerogatives. This is because child consultation center heads, fearing that the permanent deprivation could totally destroy the child-parent relationship, are reluctant to go through the legal process. The introduction of the temporary suspension of parental prerogatives will enable workers at child welfare centers to flexibly cope with cases of neglect and abuse. It is hoped that the proposed system will effectively strengthen protection of children against neglect or abuse.

 

Under the proposal, children themselves, relatives, public prosecutors or legal guardians of minors can ask for permanent deprivation or temporary suspension of parental prerogatives. If the situation improves, they can ask for nullification of the decisions against parents. If the situation does not improve, they can ask for extension of the suspension. More than one person, a child welfare center or a nonprofit organization will be allowed to serve as a guardian of and manage the property of children whose parents' parental prerogatives have been taken away or suspended.

 

In using the new system, child welfare workers must do their best to help parents rectify their behavior and to restore child-parent ties. They should keep in mind that legal steps are not a panacea.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

OPED

INDIA ASSERTING ITS INTERESTS VIS-A-VIS CHINA

BY HARSH V. PANT

 

Special to The Japan Times

LONDON — India hosted Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this month in an attempt to stabilize Sino-Indian ties, which have undergone great turbulence the past two years.

 

There was no dearth of warm words during the visit: Wen, in a lecture in New Delhi, invoked Mahatma Gandhi as "a man of love and integrity" who "has always lived in my heart." He stressed that although Sino-Indian relations have experienced major turns, they were only a short episode in a 2000-year history of friendly bilateral exchanges.

 

Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna reciprocated by suggesting that the two nations do not see any contradiction in each other's rise and that both understand the importance of leveraging growth and development with mutual cooperation.

 

As in the past, economic ties ended up being the focus of the visit. The two sides have now set a target of $100 billion in trade expansion by 2015 from the present $60 billion. Wen had come to India with a group of around 300 Chinese executives; business deals worth about $16 billion were signed. But there was no progress on the regional trade agreement as India remains concerned about its growing trade deficit with China.

 

China did not concede to India on any major issue while India decided to play hardball on various issues of importance to China. Wen, for example, refused to acknowledge Indian concerns over China's issuance of stapled visas to the residents of Jammu and Kashmir, the growing Chinese presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and anti-India terrorist groups operating from Pakistan. Unlike other major powers, China has refused to unambiguously demand that Pakistan shut down the terrorist infrastructure on its soil.

 

For its part, India this time refused to explicitly state that it recognizes the Tibet Autonomous Region as part of the Chinese territory.

 

There was little movement on a range of concerns that India had flagged before the visit. India had expressed concerns about Beijing damming rivers like the Brahmaputra as well as the nontariff trade barriers to Indian companies in China. India remains keen on gaining access to Chinese markets, especially in the area of pharmaceuticals, information technology and engineering goods.

 

Despite the lackluster nature of Wen's India trip, the newfound robustness in India's China policy in recent months is rather striking. After trying to push significant differences with China under the carpet for years, Indian decision-makers are being forced to grudgingly acknowledge that the relationship with China is becoming more contentious.

 

India has adopted a harder line on Tibet in recent weeks by making it clear to Beijing that it expects China to reciprocate on Jammu and Kashmir just as India has respected Chinese sensitivities on Tibet and Taiwan.

 

Ignoring pressures from Beijing, India decided to take part in the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in Oslo. Beijing had asked several countries, including India, to boycott the ceremony, describing the prize as open support for criminal activities in China. India was among the 44 states that did participate; Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq were among the nations that did not attend. There were rumors that Wen might cancel his India trip in response.

 

India's challenge is indeed formidable as it has not yet achieved the economic and political profile that China enjoys regionally and globally. But it gets increasingly bracketed with China as a rising power, emerging power or even a global superpower. India's main security concern is not the increasingly decrepit state of Pakistan but an ever more assertive China, which is widely viewed in India as having a better ability for strategic planning.

 

Indian policymakers, however, continue to believe that Beijing is not a short-term threat to India but needs to be watched over the long term even as Indian defense officials increasingly warn in rather blunt terms about the disparity between the two Asian powers.

 

India's naval chief has warned that India has neither "the capability nor the intention to match China force for force," while the former Indian air chief has suggested that China poses more of a threat to India than Pakistan.

 

It is certainly in the interest of both India and China to stabilize their relationship by seeking out issues on which their interests converge. But strategic problems do not necessarily make for satisfactory solutions merely because they are desirable and in the interest of all.

 

For a long time, India was not very important in China's foreign policy calculus, and there was a general perception that India could be easily pushed around. New Delhi's own actions also cemented a perception in China that it was easier to challenge Indian interests without incurring any cost.

 

New Delhi's latest robustness in its dealings with Beijing should, therefore, be welcomed insofar as it clarifies certain red lines that remain nonnegotiable.

 

Harsh V. Pant teaches at King's College London.

 

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THE JAPAN TIMES

OPED

CHINA'S NO. 1 IMPEDIMENT TO AN IT MILITARY REVOLUTION

BY HOLMES LIAO

 

Special to The Japan Times

WASHINGTON — China's belief in asymmetric warfare may be one of the major forces driving its efforts at the national level to develop missiles, submarines and, more recently, cyber-warfare capability. Chinese cyber-warfare concepts subscribe to the notion of "the inferior defeating the superior," which draws inspiration from both Sun Tzu and Mao Zedong.

 

Though China has achieved remarkable successes in its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles programs, other military research and development successes are rare. Chinese achievements in nuclear weapons and missiles resulted from concentrated resources, effective coordination of distinct specialties, and determined leadership directed at the achievement of a single, well-defined goal.

 

Unlike most weapon programs, which were developed in total government secrecy, dual-use information technologies (IT) are out in the open. Indeed, IT in the West is developed mostly in the civilian sector and then migrated into military applications. In recent years, U.S. weapon systems have been heavily embedded with commercial- off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware and software components.

 

As a result, powerful military technologies have been developed more efficiently. Likewise, cutting-edge cyber-warfare technologies and capabilities are largely developed in an open commercial market and are outside direct government control.

 

Consequently, the rapid development of electronics and computer applications in the 1980s and 1990s seem to have eluded China, despite its many national programs for technological modernization. In the IT area, China's private sector, with extensive foreign contacts and more up-to-date technologies, may have even surpassed the technological level of the research and development establishment associated directly or indirectly with the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

 

We have seen evidence that more pressure for contacts between the military and civilian sectors has been mounting and that the PLA is increasingly relying on "borrowed" expertise from the private sector.

 

The PLA's highly selective procurement and deployment of modern technologies for military operational capabilities will pose great difficulties because technology is advancing faster than it can be acquired, tested and applied in a military environment. As other nations' militaries continue to advance, the PLA's modernization efforts face moving technological goalposts.

 

Most notably, China's military- industrial complex seems to suffer from technological disadvantages in areas such as electronics, computers and software — areas where the civilian sector advances almost daily. The Chinese military-industrial complex, with its military top-down control, may not have the wherewithal to compete with other democracies' IT industries.

 

On the operational level, China's cyber warriors deploy concealment, deception and camouflage measures to hide its trails, but their effectiveness does not seem promising, given that the United States is credited with most IT development.

 

With the help of the U.S. National Security Agency, for example, Google and other high-tech companies were able to trace the source of cyber attacks back to China, despite the Chinese attackers' deliberate efforts to mask their footprints. In that regard, even if the PLA is able to develop certain "asymmetric" capabilities, it is still a long shot to expect it to defeat the U.S. in information battlefields where the latter seems to set the rules and leads the race.

 

Unless China can exploit certain weaknesses on the network and succeeds in developing some asymmetric advantages, the U.S. will retain systems that possess the skills and tools to retaliate.

 

The PLA's cyber capabilities can probably delay American intervention in a military contingency, but the chance of China leapfrogging the U.S. technologically to bring about the downfall of the U.S. in an all-out cyber war seems rather remote. Therefore, apprehension of "asymmetric warfare" capabilities may disappoint the PLA.

 

German deployment of submarines during both world wars was initially an asymmetric nightmare for its opposing forces. Japan's kamikaze tactics was a desperate asymmetric response to the U.S. naval supremacy near the end of World War II. Similarly, Egyptian fast boats carrying anti-ship cruise missiles ware also an asymmetric threat to Israeli destroyers in the 1960s.

 

But as technologies matured and corresponding countermeasures and doctrines were perfected, Germany's enemies developed anti-submarine warfare, Americans congregated their anti-air artillery firepower on the kamikaze planes, and Israelis used chaff to confuse anti-ship cruise missiles.

 

The chaos created by Chinese hackers on U.S. technology companies is due to the fact that IT is still in its infant stage. Logic in software is inherently complex, making it difficult to verify mathematically and very expensive to validate exhaustively.

 

Despite much hype, most IT products in the commercial world rarely go through the same vigorous development processes as in defense and aerospace sectors. Unlike the aerospace industry, where reliability and safety is of utmost importance, one rarely finds sound engineering disciplines and certified solutions in the information industry. Consequently, hackers around the world exploit ubiquitous weaknesses in many U.S. information applications laden with COTS components.

 

It is often argued that an autocracy rounds up resources better than a democracy. So, it is concluded that a dictatorship is more efficient in achieving national objectives, especially military ones. This may be true in public policymaking, but an oppressed and authoritarian society is ill-suited for the free flow of information; in fact, it is antithetical to the very notion of an IT revolution.

 

IT has been shown to exert profound impacts on society, which inevitably undergoes extensive transformation. An information revolution is much more than technological or military; it influences the social and national fabric of a country. The Chinese autocratic model exposes the inability to cope with the "third wave" of the technological revolution.

 

In the late 19th century, China's attempts to modernize its armed forces failed miserably because no other up-to-date social elements existed to support the technological innovation.

 

China's greatest impediment to achieving an information-based revolution in military affairs is the authoritarian nature of its political control over society.

The Chinese should learn from the failures of their 19th-century military revolution and reshape their society (and government) to be competitive in the new millennium. The capabilities to cope with the challenges posed by information warfare will not naturally come until the social transformation is complete.

 

Holmes Liao, a former adjunct lecturer at Taiwan's War College and an adviser to the foreign minister, now works for a defense electronics company in Washington, D.C.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

 WHERE ARE WE HEADING?

 

Two recently released year-end reports — one by the Moderate Muslim Society (MMS) and another by the Wahid Institute — confirmed that incidents of religious intolerance are on the rise, with vigilantes behind many of the episodes this year. These accounts formally substantiate what has been happening in Indonesia over the last couple of years.

 

The MMS report cited 81 cases of religious intolerance in 2010, an increase from 59 cases in 2009.

 

Sixty-three cases, or about 80 percent of the total, involved attacks upon or destruction of houses of worship across the nation. The Wahid Institute report recorded 133 challenges to religious freedom in 13 provinces, with over 80 percent of cases perpetrated by individual vigilantes, organized groups or vigilantes from mass organizations.

 

Both reports said that Ahmadiyah congregations and Christians comprised the majority of victims. In the latest incident of intolerance, a group calling itself the Reformist Islamic Movement barged into a religious service of the HKBP Bethania Church in Bandung on Dec. 12, forcing the congregation to disperse.

 

Both the MMS and the Wahid Institute have played their part in bringing these facts to light, underscoring the seriousness of the problem of religious intolerance the nation is facing. The question is whether their reports will have an impact on the nation's behavioral change towards differences in religious beliefs.

 

The increasing trend of religious intolerance, as reported by the two organizations, is worrisome and prone to become more widespread. Sadly, the reports by the two organizations will meet the same fate as many others that have been outspoken in voicing concerns and recommending measures for the betterment of the country (most end up in garbage bins or nicely stacked in filing cabinets), unless they are seriously examined and followed up with tangible measures by those in power or those with executorial authority.

 

Religious freedom is clearly guaranteed by the 1945 Constitution. Upon observing the nation's diverse social, racial and religious backgrounds, religious tolerance is widely expected from all elements of the nation, whether they belong to majority or minority religious groups.

 

The next question is, who will be responsible for ensuring that such violent acts will never be repeated or will effectively be prevented in the future?

 

The statement by MMS chairman Zuhairi Misrawi that cases of religious intolerance have taken place "because the government, which should be upholding the Constitution in guaranteeing its citizens' most basic rights, has been reluctant and even an actor in incidents of intolerance", has only confirmed the fact. A similar statement by  Catholic priest Rev. Benny Susetyo of the human rights watchdog Setara Institute claimed that the 30 percent increase was a signal that law enforcement officials were not doing their jobs because they allowed hard-line groups to act without fear of legal consequences, thus heightening the need for immediate action against such violent acts.

 

The government — at both regional and national levels — is undoubtedly responsible for the task.

However, while observing the widespread scale of violence — affecting 13 provinces which are vulnerable to significant unrest – the President, as the supreme executive authority in the country, should take the lead in the campaign against religious intolerance.

 

The President must act firmly and immediately. Otherwise, he will be the one bearing the responsibility for the continuing violence.

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

PRIVATIZING DEMOCRACY: A TIMELY CONCEPT

KUMBA DIGDOWISEISO AND VIDYA DYASANTI

 

Democracy is priceless, but it has a cost. Expenses incurred by electoral campaigns and political parties are the normal costs incurred by a functioning democracy.

 

If political financing appears to be a necessary means to a democratic end, one cannot deny that the incursion of money into politics has raised concerns over its impact on democratic consolidation.

 

We know that this is the main source of optimism for Indonesia's fight against corruption. But corruption itself still hampers democratic consolidation, as it tends to direct political accountability towards clientelism, and vote buying, a phenomenon popularly known as "money politics".

 

Trying to explore the link between political financing, democratic consolidation and corruption, raises a critically important question: Who should finance political parties?

 

In his essays on party financing in Indonesia, Marcus Mietzner said the government provided lucrative public funding to political parties between 2001 and 2005, before it cut support by nearly 90 percent in 2006. This substantial reduction created a problem given the government's new legislative seat funding formula.

 

Parties are now increasingly encouraged to seek their own funding, which they do by intensifying internal and external fund-raising. These efforts include exploiting alternative state funds and selling nominations for public office to affluent non-party figures.

 

They are also asking legislators to increase their contributions. For example, before the cut, party boards were asked to contribute from 10 to 20 percent of their salaries. After 2005, however, this figure reached up to 40 percent. In addition, House legislators have asked to help pay for party functions and other activities, further reducing their take-home salaries. For most legislators, these kinds of demands will force them to raise more money through corrupt practices and illicit fund-raising.

 

In a recently passed amendment to the Law on Political Parties, limits on private donations to political parties has been increased from Rp 4 billion (US$444,000) to Rp 7.5 billion annually. We believe that not only the limit on private donations should be reconsidered, but also the reliance on the private sector to finance political parties.

 

Such a move was justified by economic and democratic arguments, calling for a drastic reduction of public spending on political parties to put state resources to a better use and to force political parties to develop and consolidate their supporters. Recent experience has however proven that advocates of such a policy were sorely mistaken on two accounts.

 

First, the impact of such policy on budget efficiency is highly questionable. Indeed, the drying up of previously generous state subsidies has left political parties in dire need of alternative sources of funding such as "indirect state subsidies". For instance, shortly after the government regulation went into effect, the House responded quickly with an increase of more than 80 percent in take-home-pay for each legislator.

 

Political parties also tried to benefit from participation in the government. Ministers, who represent particular political parties in the Cabinet, and regional heads were pressured to divert state funds by accommodating businesses and individual closely associated with their parties through arranged tenders. Thus, it is no coincidence that since 2005, as many as 150 regents and mayors have been charged with corruption, mostly related to public procurement.

 

Second, the role of external donations is not solely limited to the usual lobbyism and influence-seeking by interested donors. More importantly, Indonesian parties have effectively begun to surrender some of their core political functions in exchange for vital financial assistance.

 

As financing becomes more important, affiliated people tend to play a bigger role in securing party nominations. Generally, political parties sell the nominations for legislative and executive office to wealthy individuals who have no particular connection with the party. Thus, in 2005 local elections, only 22 percent of party nominees were party officials. The large majority were bureaucrats and entrepreneurs, followed by groups of former security officers, civil society leaders and media figures.

 

Bidding for party leadership by affluent business figures tends to increase volatility in leadership and mobility between parties, thus blurring political lines of demarcation and making it increasingly difficult for voters to read the political and ideological positioning and consistency of political parties.

 

The absence of political accountability and the presence of strong figures with charisma and popularity has contributed to a drastic increase in the cost of electoral campaigns, when bidding wars takes place to buy votes.

 

Adjustments in political financing regulations are desperately needed to curb money politics and rebuild political accountability towards party constituencies. Amending the Law on Political Parties should be the first step in turning things around. However, House Commission II's decision to almost double the limit imposed on private donations in the draft amendment has been widely criticized by many as a move to strengthen the control of affluent businessmen on political parties and state institutions.

 

Thus, institutional reforms should be focused on reducing the financial vulnerability of political parties. An increase in state subsidies will not solve all the problems by itself, but will foster the institutionalization of political parties, the consolidation of their leadership and positioning at both national and local levels.

 

A ban or at least less dependence on private sector contributions will decrease the leverage of dominant firms and interest groups to influence policy making and get state resources. By doing so, we can promote fair political competition and development of cohesive constituencies.

 

Kumba Digdowiseiso is an economic policy researcher and Vidya Dyasanti is a program manager at Transparency International Indonesia.      

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

EUPHORIA AND THE NATIONAL SOCCER TEAM

A'AN SURYANA

 

Euphoria struck Indonesia after the national soccer team advanced to the AFF Suzuki Cup finals. The stellar performance of the national team was abuzz everywhere, and has been a hot topic in the past few weeks in the media in the country. Some politicians have even complained that the many reports in the media have diverted people's attention from the Bank Century corruption scandal.

 

Television stations have broadcast news about the successes of the national team; with news even spilling over into the personal lives of players and coaches, particularly the two naturalized players, Christian Gonzales and Irfan Bachdim.

 

The frenzy has not ended with coffee shop and media discussions. People have gone crazy for the national team's merchandise such as T-shirts and scarves, which are now hot selling items.

 

People have always been seen jostling at Bung Karno Stadium to secure tickets to every game the national team has played in the AFF Cup, and the enthusiasm led to riots at the stadium Sunday after supporters became angry because they could not secure tickets for the second leg of the final match against Malaysia on Wednesday.

 

The jubilant mood was justified as Indonesians have been longing for a great achievement by their national soccer team.

 

Soccer is the ultimate sport in the country, but, ironically, the national soccer team has continuously failed to win any international games the last few years.

 

People have been in perpetual discontent ever since Indonesia's participation in the World Cup Final in 1938 because game after game, the national team rarely shows great achievement.

 

The worst was last year when the national team failed to even qualify in the regional SEA Games.  

"The Indonesian Football Association has to discover the right formula to assure our national teams in the future will perform well in every game they play."

Only this year the team began to show some promise after the AFF Cup kicked off a few weeks ago. The team was determined and crushed Malaysia 5-1 and Laos 6-0 before advancing to the semifinals against the Philippines. In the semifinals, Indonesia overcame their neighbor 2–0.

In the first leg of the finals in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday night, Indonesia was crushed by Malaysia 0–3, but the final score did not represent the overall performance of the Indonesian team.

 

Non-technical reasons such as nervousness, the burden of the public's expectations and the 
use of lasers by Malaysian supporters that affected the concentration of the Indonesian players have been often cited as causes behind the defeat, but, in the second leg to be held on Wednesday in Jakarta, the national team is expected to rebound and return to its previous stellar performance that had stirred up euphoric emotions among Indonesian people.

 

The defeat Sunday was disheartening, but Indonesia can still win big in the upcoming match in front of its home audience.

It thrashed Malaysia 5-1 in a preliminary match, so Indonesian players will hopefully be able to regain confidence to defeat Malaysia.

 

On top of that, the players also know Senayan field well compared to the Malaysian players, so that can also serve as an advantage.

 

People's expectations are still running high as the trophy is important. If the national team wins, it would be the first time ever for Indonesia since the Cup began in 1996.

 

The best achievement so far by the national team in the biennial event was runner up.

 

Winning the AFF Cup is important to elevate national pride. But, the more important thing is to sustain the stellar performance the team has shown so far.

 

It will be a shame if the impressive performance already shown this year does not continue in the 
future and instead in years to come the national team again ends up with the same fate, namely, as a perpetual loser.

 

This is a cause of concern for many people. Many still question whether the superior play can be sustained. Had Christian Gonzales (a former Uruguayan citizen) not been naturalized and not been member of our national team, would we have been able to win the match against the Philippines? (The 34-year-old striker scored defining goals, with one goal in each game against the Philippines to secure Indonesia a place in the finals).

 

Should we rely on immediate gratification, that is, naturalizing foreign players to ensure our national team wins every game?

 

Had we failed to recruit Alfred Riedl, our seasoned foreign coach, would we have been able to instill the discipline and determination among our players so that the team became more competitive?

 

The Indonesian Football Association has to look ahead and find the root causes behind the success of the national team and discover the right formula to assure our national teams in the future will perform well in every game they play.

 

If we can do that, the euphoria will not only be one time — like what we are experiencing now — but will continue for many years to come. 

 

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THE JAKARTA POST

EDITORIAL

THE WORLD IN 2011

CYRILLUS HARINOWO HADIWERDOYO

 

I flew Garuda Indonesia Airlines more than 50 times in 2010, so I can testify that most of those flights were full — or at least at 90 percent capacity — despite the rapid expansion of the airline's fleet. The Garuda fleet currently boasts nearly 90 airplanes since the addition of more than 40 new Boeing 737-800 planes.

 

The route to Pontianak is one of many examples of Garuda's growth. Flights to the provincial capital of West Kalimantan had been suspended for a number of years.

 

Two years ago, Garuda resumed flights to Pontianak, starting with one a day. After a few months 
the flights were increased to twice daily. In one year's time they increased to three times daily, which continues today.

 

Moreover, the size of the aircraft also increased. Garuda started with the Boeing 737-500, which accommodates fewer than 100 passengers. Then it upgraded to the Boeing 737-300. In the last few months flights were mostly served by Boeing 737-400, accommodating more than 150 passengers.

 

What will happen in the coming years?

 

In the automotive business, Indonesian domestic car sales reached almost 700,000 units as of November 2010, exceeding the whole of 2009's sales, which reached 486,000 units.

 

In the 11-month period, sales have even exceeded the whole of the record-setting 2008 performance, when 607,000 units were sold.  

 

It could be that the sales figures of 2010 finish at over 750,000 units, as the monthly sales marks have approached 70,000 units recently. Will this performance continue next year and beyond?

 

Recently, The Economist published its annual series called The World in 2011. I noted that, for the first time, the Economist was bullish on Indonesia. It predicted that, with 245 million people in 2011, Indonesia's GDP will reach around US$806 billion, resulting in a GDP per capita of $3,280.

 

By this figure, Indonesia's GDP is predicted to exceed those of Turkey and the Netherlands, making Indonesia the 16th largest economic power in the world. Compared to 2004, what Indonesia has achieved is no less than miraculous.

 

"Indonesia's economy is really on an upward curve in recent years, and will be moving faster — at least for the next few years — before reaching a plateau."

In 2004, Indonesia's position was still at the rank of 25th/26th, tied with Saudi Arabia. The Saudi position remains nearly the same today as the 23rd country on the global economic ladder.

 

The Economist's bullishness is clear. In its The World in 2010 article last year it predicted that the Indonesian GDP would reach $594 billion, short by over $100 billion, as the latest estimates for 2010 have the Indonesian GDP projected at over $700 billion. That pessimism was a relic of the magazine's previous positions on Indonesia.

 

Consequently, the optimism buoyed by the article may trigger others to look more positively on Indonesia. An article in the latest edition of Business Week Magazine raised the possibility of Indonesia replacing Russia in the BRIC grouping, which would change the acronym to BIIC — though if they wanted something catchier they might try BICI.

 

This possibility was also strongly emphasized by Nouriel Roubini, the famous global economist of the Roubini Global Economics firm, who also is a professor in the Stern Business School at New York University.

 

What business activities will blossom in 2011?

 

As in 2010, the automotive industry will lead the economy forward. If domestic car sales in 2010 reach over 750,000 units, exceeding my own predictions which ranged from 710,000 to 740,000 units, then 2011 will likely see car sales increase to over 850,000 units. I won't be surprised if car sales exceed 900,000 units by the end of 2011.

 

For comparison, China's domestic car sales were only one million units in 2000. But after reaching a GDP per capita of $3,000 in 2008, China saw a rapid increase in its domestic car sales, making it the largest car market in 2009 with 13.6 million cars sold, exceeding the US' mark of 10.8 million units.

 

It's possible that 1 million cars could be sold in Indonesia in 2012, faster than the government's prediction.

 

Producers of durable household goods such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, stoves and microwave ovens are also in line for a significant increase in business.

 

An employee from one company told me that its 2010 sales have increased by over 15 percent, a greater gain than in 2009. I believe the company's sales will double within the next five years.

 

Therefore, investment to expand capacity may soon be needed.

 

The demand for laptop and desktop computers may also increase significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if new gadgets such as the iPad become top products in the coming months.

 

The past few years have also seen the rise of photography as a trendy new hobby for young people. Easy-to-use digital cameras certainly helped push sales.

 

However, many people are also undertaking more serious forays into photography with SLR cameras and all the various gadgets and accessories.

 

Retail will continue to experience its boom as well. Shopping malls, for instance, are predicted to see higher attendance in 2011. Indomaret and Alfamart, two Indonesian retail chains, have competed neck-and-neck for more locations throughout Indonesia, each already with over 4,000 stores.

 

Alfamart adds to its count three units every day with an intermediate target to increase this rate to one every six hours of every day. We also have seen the arrival of 7-Elevens and Circle Ks throughout Indonesia.

 

The travel industries will experience expansion of their own. Indonesian airlines such as Garuda, Lion Air, Batavia Air, Sriwijaya, Mandala and Indonesian Air Asia will see significant growth in passengers 
in 2011.

 

With the rise of Indonesia's middle class, premium airlines such as Garuda should benefit the most.

 

Indonesia's economy is really on an upward curve in recent years, and will be moving faster — at least for the next few years — before reaching a plateau.

 

Therefore, it is high time for the foreign and local business communities to devote ample attention to tapping the abundant opportunity here. I hope that The World in 2011 will inspire people to be aware of what is taking place.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

DEMOLITION RULES

 

The second round of public opinion solicitation on a government document for the first time indicates the caution and importance the government has attached to the new regulations on the requisition of and compensation for buildings on State-owned land.

 

It is definitely good that the new regulations ban forced relocation by cutting off utilities and excludes the construction enterprises from relocations and demolitions. What is also noteworthy is the specific definition of projects of public interest.

 

These are important because most of the forced demolition cases, some even carried out with violence, are directly related to the interests of the construction companies or real estate developers. For public interest projects, residents have the obligation to abide by the relocation, but for the commercial projects, residents have the right to sit at the negotiating table to defend their lawful interests.

 

On Monday, in the name of Constitution and Administrative Law Center of Peking University, some scholars presented their opinions and suggestions to the State Council.

 

As legal experts, their suggestions will help make the regulations balance public and individual interests.

 

One of the suggestions requires that the disclosure of the requisition and compensation result be changed to make the entire process transparent. This is because those whose houses are requisitioned have the right to know why the requisition is necessary and why the compensation scheme is made in such a manner.

 

Another suggestion says that a new clause should be added to the first article of the eighth clause to make sure that the requisition of, and compensation for, houses in non-public interest projects should be negotiated on a voluntary and fair basis. Another suggestion for the same clause is that non-public interest projects should never be constructed on the land requisitioned for public interest projects.

 

All these suggestions need to be carefully deliberated by the drafters and experts concerned before the regulations are published and take effect. Even if some of the suggestions are not accepted for one reason or another, the relevant department under the State Council needs to give a detailed explanation of why not.

 

As these regulations are of great concern to the interest of millions of residents, the department and experts responsible for their drafting need to display their inclusiveness in the adoption of public opinions. They also need to weigh the interests of not just individuals and the public but also enterprises.

 

The new stipulation that illegal constructions are not entitled to compensation is good as it will prevent some residents from building provisional houses before their homes are requisitioned for illegal profits.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

LAW ON SOIL EROSION

 

An amended Law on Water and Soil Conservation adopted on Friday specifies the responsibilities local governments shoulder and the penalties that will be imposed should they fail to meet them. These will hopefully make the amended law bite when it comes to irresponsible actions causing water loss and soil erosion.

 

The new version increases the accountability of local government officials for water conservancy and soil erosion control and requires those local governments whose territories are vulnerable to soil erosion to set specific targets to keep soil from being washed away because of the loss of trees and grass.

 

Punishments will be enforced if the targets are not met. The maximum fine for those who violate the regulations has been increased from 200,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. The law also stipulates that profits from extracting soil, sand and rocks in places vulnerable to the loss of soil and water will be confiscated once they are identified.

 

These measures, if carried out to the letter, should deter people from illegally mining sand and rock from environmentally fragile areas.

 

The total area affected by water loss and soil erosion amounts to 3.57 million square kilometers, almost one third of the country's total land, and of this, nearly 2 million sq km are in urgent need of treatment. The annual economic losses from water loss and soil erosion are estimated at about 2.25 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

 

Despite the efforts governments at all levels have made in the past 19 years, since the first law on water and soil conservancy was adopted in 1991, there has been much to be desired when it comes to the awareness and actions local governments have taken to conserve water and control soil erosion.

 

In vast stretches of mountainous areas, the ecology is fragile. Economic activities such as the exploitation of mineral resources and the mining of sand and rocks will eventually lead to natural disasters such as mudslide and floods. And they will in the end cause the deterioration of the environment and make it even more difficult for local residents to make a living.

 

The disastrous mudslides in Zhouqu in Northwest China's Gansu province and Gongshan in Southwest China's Yunnan province this year have sounded the alarm about soil erosion.

 

That explains why the central government adopted policies early this decade to restore some of the exploited land into grassland or forests. The policies have paid off and 350,000 sq km of land with serious soil erosion have been treated in the past five years.

 

Whether the Ministry of Water Resources, which has been designated to oversee the enforcement of this law, can do a good job, will make a difference to the overall situation of water conservancy and soil erosion control.

 

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CHINA DAILY

EDITORIAL

HOW TO CONTROL MEDICAL FRAUD EPIDEMIC

BY GRAYSON CLARKE AND JIM GEE (CHINA DAILY)

 

The Chinese government's recent announcement that it plans to increase public health spending during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) and ensure that co-payments are limited to 30 percent is good news for many citizens who dread the consequences of serious ill-health. So too is the decision to broaden the healthcare market to non-public hospitals provided the right financial and quality regulation regime is in place.

 

But the impact of the two initiatives will be seriously diminished unless the government confronts one of the largest and mostly hidden costs the worldwide health systems face - the cost of fraud.

 

Healthcare fraud worldwide is enormous. In the United States 80 percent of the recoveries for the federal government under so-called Qui-tam legislation (public participation in private lawsuits) relates to healthcare. In the 23 years between 1986 and 2009, this amounted to more than $21 billion. But this may be just the tip of an iceberg, because detected fraud comprises a very small amount of the actual level.

 

In 2009, the University of Portsmouth in the UK published a report that which analyzed the results of 66 measurement exercises from six developed countries and identified an average loss rate of 5.6 percent. Applied to the total worldwide public healthcare expenditure, the losses from fraud every year would be enough to build as many as 1,500 new hospitals at developed country prices.

 

The methodology is there and has been used successfully in a number of countries. But three problems need to be addressed in using it.

 

The first is that local governments may see the issue as largely one of shifting resources from one pocket of the government (medical insurance) to another (public hospitals). That would be a mistaken view partly because the frauds of course will raise the out-of-pocket payments that citizens have to make and partly because fraud reduces the amount of healthcare that could otherwise take place.

 

The second reason is the embarrassment factor. Generally, public agencies across the world are not keen to concede that 5 or even 10 percent of the money they spend is fraudulent.

 

Third, fraud measurement, prevention and investigation all costs a lot of staff and money and many local governments don't have the resources to invest up-front in tackling the problem.

 

But looking at these issues as opportunities throws a different light on the situation. Undertaking fraud loss measurement exercises gives local leaders the chance to show they are addressing the issue and finding solutions. In the United Kingdom, the National Health Service Counter Fraud Service reduced the amount of fraud losses by up to 40 percent in just two years.

 

Knowing the extent of fraud also provides justification for providing more resources to fight it. Best of all, reduced losses and recoveries of stolen funds can be channeled back directly into the fight against fraud. In the UK, we calculated that we had saved or recovered 12 for every 1 we spent. In the United States, officials claim an even higher benefit cost ratio of 15:1.

 

In terms of how to tackle fraud, a combination of strategies is required to be adjusted to the particular context of a country's health system. The World Health Organization annual report of 2010 identifies 10 ways of making health resources go further and many of them include addressing aspects of fraud and corruption such as tackling inappropriate and over-prescription of medicines and services, promoting greater use of generic drugs and tackling counterfeit and substandard drugs.

 

The general thrust of public hospital reform program, from reducing the reliance on income from sale of pharmaceuticals and increasing budget support and introducing performance related pay for doctors to developing clinical pathways to curb unnecessary services and charges shows great promise. But these changes are likely to have a long-term impact only if they are made systematically and resources are made available to monitor and fight fraud on a long-term institutional basis.

 

Most importantly, the vast and honest majority of medical system staff members and the wider public need to be educated and mobilized to tackle the issue. Staff members at all levels should understand what fraud is and how they can report and be taken seriously without fear of retribution. The public, whose pockets are being picked, need to be told that being involved in frauds like lending their insurance cards may have costly implications for them and their families when they most need help. We have to recognize that the fight against fraud is a fight for our future.

 

Grayson Clarke is resident fund management expert with the EU-China Social Security Reform Project, and Jim Gee is the chair of the Centre for Counter Fraud Services at the University of Portsmouth and director of counter fraud services for PKF UK Ltd.

 

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

TACKLING EUROPE'S DEBT CRISIS

BY WOLFGANG SCHUBLE (CHINA DAILY)

 

The International Monetary Fund estimates that the crisis-induced net cost of financial-sector support provided by G20 countries in 2009 amounted to 1.7 percent of GDP ($905 billion), while discretionary fiscal stimulus amounted to 2 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010 both. All the eurozone countries, except Luxembourg and Finland, reported fiscal deficits in excess of 3 percent of GDP in 2009, while Greece, Spain and Ireland ran deficits of more than 10 percent. Within a single year, eurozone governments' general debt increased by almost 10 percentage points (78.7 percent of GDP in 2009, compared with 69.3 percent in 2008).

 

As for Germany, the 2010 federal budget features a record-high deficit of well above 50 billion ($66.50 billion). Public-sector debt will surpass 1.7 trillion, approaching 80 percent of GDP. Interest payments, which consume more than 10 percent of Germany's federal budget, will grow along with the mounting debt burden - and even faster if interest rates rise.

 

Yet the financial crisis and the ensuing recession go only so far toward explaining these high levels of indebtedness. The truth is that many European and G20 countries have lived far beyond their means - including Germany, despite its reputation as a paragon of fiscal rectitude.

 

Even in good times, governments have for too long been spending more than they received. Perhaps worse, some also spent more than they could easily repay, given their economies' declining long-term growth potential because of the aging of their populations. Such profligacy has led to levels of debt that will become unsustainable if we do not act.

 

This is why Germany decided in 2009 to enshrine strict fiscal rules in its constitution. The Schuldenbremse, or "debt brake", requires the federal government to run a structural deficit of no more than 0.35 percent of GDP by 2016, while Germany's Lnder (federal states) will be banned from running structural deficits at all as of 2020. The current federal government will certainly abide by these rules, which implies reducing the structural deficit to about 10 billion by 2016 - a reduction of about 7 billion a year.

 

Welfare benefits account for more than half of Germany's federal spending this year. So there is little choice but to cut welfare spending, at least moderately. But this sort of fiscal consolidation can be achieved only if a majority perceives it as being socially equitable. Recipients of social and corporate welfare alike, as well as civil servants, must share the sacrifice.

 

Thus, German corporations will have to contribute to fiscal consolidation through reductions in subsidies and additional taxes on major energy companies, airlines, and financial institutions. Similarly, civil servants must forego promised pay increases, and the government is looking for annual savings in the federal armed forces of up to 3 billion through structural reforms.

 

Germany's binding fiscal rules set a positive example for other eurozone countries. But all eurozone governments need to demonstrate their own commitment to fiscal consolidation in order to restore the confidence of markets - and of their own citizens. Recent studies show that once a government's debt burden reaches a threshold perceived to be unsustainable, more debt will only stunt, not stimulate, economic growth.

 

Greece's debt crisis was a clear warning that European policymakers must not allow public debt to pile up indefinitely. The European Union was right to react decisively to ensure the euro's stability by providing short-term assistance to Greece and establishing the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism. But, while the European Financial Stability Facility is a necessary step toward restoring confidence, the Greek crisis has revealed structural weaknesses of the European Monetary Union's (EMU) fiscal-policy framework that cannot, and should not, be fixed by routinely throwing other countries' money at the problem.

 

Indeed, I consider the European Financial Stability Facility to be a stopgap measure while we remedy the fundamental shortcomings of the Stability and Growth Pact, whose fiscal rules lack substantive and formal bite both. This is why we need a more effective crisis-prevention and crisis-resolution framework for the eurozone, one that strengthens the pact's preventive and corrective provisions. Sanctions for eurozone countries that seriously infringe EMU rules should take effect more quickly and with less political discretion, and also should be tougher.

 

Germany and France have proposed stricter rules on borrowing and spending, backed by tough, semi-automatic sanctions for governments that do not comply. Countries that repeatedly ignore recommendations for reducing excessive deficits - and those that manipulate official statistics - should have their EU funds frozen and their voting rights suspended.

 

Monetary union was intended to be neither a panacea for eurozone countries nor a get-rich scheme for financial speculators. Nor was it meant to be a system of redistribution from richer to poorer countries via cheaper borrowing for governments by means of common Eurobonds or outright fiscal transfers. It won't succeed if some countries persistently run deficits and weaken their competitiveness at the expense of the euro's stability.

 

EMU was designed to encourage structural reform. Profligate members were supposed to be forced by the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as by their peers, to live within their means and thus strengthen their competitiveness. Instead, Germany's former social-democratic government weakened the pact when doing so was politically convenient, while less competitive eurozone countries allowed wages to rise and the public sector to become bloated, and then looked away as easy credit fueled debt and asset bubbles.

 

We cannot foster sustainable growth or pre-empt a sovereign-debt crisis in Europe (or anywhere else) by piling up more debt. European countries need to reduce their deficits in a growth-friendly fashion, but reduce them they must.

 

It can be done: Germany is reducing its debt burden to sustainable levels while strengthening its long-term growth prospects. Its course of pro-growth deficit reduction, together with its suggestions for strengthening Europe's fiscal framework, could serve as a blueprint for European economic governance.

 

The author is Germany's Federal Minister of Finance.

Project Syndicate.

 

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

RESET RELATIONS WITH MORE TRUST

BY CHEN WEIHUA (CHINA DAILY)

 

US President Barack Obama took a "shellacking" in the midterm elections, yet he ended the year in a more cheerful mood as Congress repealed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and passed a huge tax bill, the New START treaty and several other bills.

 

Sino-US relations have followed a similar trajectory in 2010. As predicted by analysts and journalists at the start, it was a year of frictions.

 

But, at the year-end, we were hearing US government officials making positive comments on the recent Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) meeting in Washington and the positive role China has played in easing the latest tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

 

There is more to expect in the weeks ahead. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is scheduled to visit China on Jan 9, a year after China cut bilateral military ties in protest at the proposed US arms sales to Taiwan.

 

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morell said Gates would work to build a military tie with China "that is confident in tone, cooperative in nature and comprehensive in scope".

 

Gates will look to "extend upon those areas where we can cooperate" with China's military and promote dialogue aimed at improving "mutual understanding and reducing the risk of miscalculation".

 

Of course, there are even greater expectations for the visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington on Jan 19, which many hope will help soothe the troubled relationship by setting a positive tone and improving trust.

 

We have seen a lot of distrust on both sides in 2010. Some Chinese think that there is a US conspiracy to contain China.

 

Meanwhile, many in the United States consider China a threat, stealing jobs and hurting US interests around the world. Many frictions in bilateral trade arose from this distrust.

 

With such a mindset, both countries are denied many possible win-win opportunities.

 

Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution has warned of the danger of such thinking.

 

"When you think China's threat is real then it becomes real. At the same time, if you think US policy is anti-China, sooner or later you will want to reinforce that kind of thing. It will become real. So that is a danger. And that danger certainly escalated quickly in 2010."

 

However, given the broad cooperation and exchanges in everything from security, business, clean energy, education and governments at various levels, the differences between the two countries really make up only a fraction of the larger picture in bilateral ties.

 

But the hype by politicians and media has made many people in China, the US and other parts of the world feel that the opposite is true.

 

The leaders of the two countries are well aware of the problem. In September, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao proposed several measures to improve mutual trust.

 

"The deeper the mutual trust, the bigger the space for cooperation between each other," he said.

 

President Obama has also expressed the need for candid dialogue and more mutual strategic trust.

 

There is much hope that the visits by Hu and Gates will make real progress to build trust.

 

No one, however, expects mutual strategic trust to arrive overnight. After all, it has not been achieved even after 30 years of diplomatic ties.

 

But both should try to strike a positive tone while addressing their differences. As Wen said, the two countries should always look at each other in a positive light.

 

That requires the wisdom and efforts of not only government leaders but also people across a wide spectrum in both countries.

 

The author is deputy editor of China Daily US edition. He can be reached at chenweihua@chinadaily.com.cn

 

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CHINA DAILY

OPED

CENTRAL BANK TARGETS INFLATION

BY YI XIANRONG (CHINA DAILY)

 

Unexpected increase in interest rate should help contain the soaring prices and real estate bubble in the new year

 

The latest interest rate hike announced by the People's Bank of China highlighted the government's grave concern over soaring prices and its determination to contain the real estate bubble.

 

China's central bank decided on Saturday to increase the one-year benchmark lending and deposit interest rates by 25 basis points from the next day, the second increase this year.

 

Although there had previously been strong calls for rate increases in the context of the consumer price index (CPI) growth rate continually hitting a new high, Saturday's move was still beyond expectations. All previous messages transmitted by the country's central bank, including its decision on Dec 10 to raise commercial banks' reserve requirement, had suggested new interest rate hikes would be unlikely before the end of the year.

 

The rate hike was announced on the day when the United States and European countries were enjoying their Christmas holidays and their investment banks were unable to make a timely response.

 

The unexpected move showcased the central bank's intention of preventing its effects from being discounted because of possible advance market expectations. Giving days for Western countries to digest the possible effects of China's move should also help minimize the repercussions on the international financial markets.

 

As far as China's domestic market is concerned, the decision to raise interest rates again before the new year will help China stabilize inflation expectations next year. It will also help curb domestic property price bubbles.

 

The series of policies and measures adopted by the relevant State departments over the past months have curbed the momentum of soaring prices. It is expected that the CPI growth rate in December will fall from the 5.1 percent of November, which was a record high over the past 28 months.

 

Such a high-level CPI growth rate will obviously be unfavorable to the national economy next year, which is the starting year of the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). It will also pose an enormous challenge to the country's economic restructuring and industrial upgrading drives.

 

However, in the absence of a long-term effective price stabilizing mechanism, the effects achieved by the temporary and emergency administrative means will soon subside and the momentum of price rises is likely to rebound at a time when the country's excess liquidity has not been fundamentally changed.

 

The rate hike will not affect China's stock market very much because investors, after weeks of uneasiness about such rumors, can now sigh with a relief that it is mild. And the hike is actually good news for the stock market because it means the economic fundamentals are getting better and industrial performance is improving.

 

As the top State organ in charge of the country's monetary policy, the People's Bank of China should put how to curb soaring prices and real estate bubbles firmly at the top of its agenda.

 

Despite encountering a new round of rigid macro-regulatory measures from the central government over the past months, domestic house prices have stood very firm and there is still a possibility of further rises if no effective measures are taken. Any rebound in prices will increase the difficulties facing the central government in regulating the long-controversial sector next year.

 

The over-fast growth of the domestic real estate market has been the result of the country's unusual monetary policy since the start of the global financial crisis. The latest rate hike indicates the central bank's resolve to restore the emergency monetary policy to normal and bring the red-hot real estate market back onto the track of healthy development.

 

Despite being downplayed by some, a 0.25 percent increase in interest rates will play an inestimable influence on the real estate market. It will not only increase speculation costs in this sector, it will also change investor expectations of the future market. Any fundamental changes in investor expectations will change the trend of China's speculation-prone real estate sector.

 

More importantly, the latest rate hike is expected to produce an accumulated effect on the domestic real estate market, one that heavily depends on credit. For a real estate market in which the down payment practice is widely applied, any rate hikes will increase the cost of borrowing and thus deter some from entering the market.

 

The interest rate hike indicates that the central bank's "prudent" monetary policy will be fully implemented by not only controlling credits but also by readjusting interest rates. These will have a relatively big impact on the domestic real estate market.

 

The market should not underestimate the potency of the prudent monetary policy.

 

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

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DAILY MIRROR

     EDITORIAL

 

 

HOLY INNOCENTS DAY: SAVE OUR CHILDREN

 

Super highways and flyovers, international ports or airports and other high-tech facilities are being built as part of the Rajapaksa regime's mega development plan to make Sri Lanka one of the foremost countries in the world. While these are important much more emphasis needs to be given to the moulding of our children because without people who are committed to sincere, sacrificial and selfless service, we will be building on sand and the whole structure might collapse in a storm or crisis.

 

On this Holy Innocents Day our political, religious and other leaders need to look deeply and take effective steps to reverse some of the negative or counter-productive trends which are producing malnourished children who are weak and vulnerable to diseases. Therefore they cannot do their best, their full potential cannot be tapped and they cannot become productive citizens to build a better Sri Lanka.

 

During the past 50 years trans-national milk powder companies and other vested interests have spent millions on sophisticated methods to draw mothers' away from the priceless breast feeding to bottle feeding. Qualified nutritionists believe that exclusive breast feeding is essential for at least six months and part time breast feeding for about three years if we wish to ensure that we have healthy children who will grow up to be healthy men and women able to lay and sustain the foundations of a wealthy nation.

 

Tragically thousands of mothers in cities and suburban areas stop the vital breast feeding after about two  months because they need to go to work or desire to maintain their figure. As a result the children are often left with a relative or a nanny, given powdered milk in bottles and deprived of love to such an extent that they become both physically and emotionally weak. Fifty years ago most children after two to three years of breast feeding were given fresh cow's milk which was freely available at low cost. But this fresh milk industry was gradually diluted and then virtually destroyed by trans-national companies and their agents.

 

 The second stage of the attack on children begins when they go to school. Already unhealthy both physically and emotionally and thus finding it difficult to understand what is taught to them, these innocent children are exposed or caught up in a culture of deteriorating morals. Recent surveys have revealed the shocking news that thousands of school children, who are given mobile phones by their parents, have access to more than 40 horrible pornographic sites. Fifty years ago children found it difficult to get their hands on a sex book, but today with a press of a button even in the classroom they could watch pornography involving even homosexuals and paedophiles. By way of a solution it is the parents who need to play the key role in reversing these dangerous trends. Children spend a few hours a day in school, but most of the time they are at home. Parents and other elders need to stop talking the talk and start walking the talk. They need to practise what they preach. They need to give guidance and direction to the children not so much by pious exhortations, but by example and exemplary leadership. If urgent and effective steps are not taken to save our children then the mega development plans might turn into a mega disaster.    

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

AVIRODHA: A MUST-CULTIVATE FOR THE EFFECTIVE AND BENEVOLENT RULE

 

A few months ago, I began a series that sought to elaborate on and contextualize what to me is the most succinct and yet comprehensive document on the issue of good governance, the Dasa Raja Dharma, the ten-point guideline that Budun Wahanse advocated fo rulers.  It was not a straight, 'From No.1 to No. 10' series, strictly speaking.  There were pieces that focused on what I believed were important political moments that I believed warranted immediate comment. This is the last, however, of the series, a note on Avirodha, the 10th article in that magnificent treatise of the Samma Sambuddha.  

 Avirodha refers to non-opposition and non-enmity and could be read as a recommendation to ruler to submit to the will of the people and cultivating the spirit of amity among the citizenry.  The harmony implied, however, seems to be the principal lack in most cases and therefore this particular tenet might be one of the hardest for a ruler to uphold.

 

 Polities are not flat.  They are made of multiple ideologies and people who entertain different ideas of Utopia.  They are not necessarily made of people who have banished ill-will from their respective armories.  Indeed, some are armed with weapons far more potent than ill-will.  It is not easy for a ruler to engage in arms-raised 'non-opposition' when there's a bomb-throwing, trigger-happy adventurer clamouring for an audience.  This is where the ruler has to be absolutely on-the-ball when it comes to public opinion.  He/she has to be conscious of majority opinion. There is of course a need to listen to and address the grievances of others, but always in a spirit of accommodation, respect and a total rejection of enmity. 

 

How can a ruler ascertain the will of the people?  In days gone by rulers would disguise themselves as commoners and mingle with the people.  Today they employ other (in their eyes 'reliable') eyes and ears. They employ pollsters. They read election results.  They assess the weight of protests and try to separate frill from fact and thereby obtain the true magnitude of objection. They are hampered by vanity, false sense of security, ego, lack of human resources (not every 'advisor' is competent and often 'confidant' is assumed to be 'objective' at great cost) and an unfortunate but necessary cocooning from the public.  

 

A leader cannot do justice to the will of the people if he/she has no fail-safe mechanism to ascertain that 'will'.  People have things to say, about leaders and leadership, governments and governance, things as they were, as they are and as they believe they ought to be.  Leaders must ensure that there are avenues for the free expression of all these views.  They should have the wisdom to look past the invective and malice that often get tagged to criticism.  They should exercise compassion in dealing with the insolent and ill-willed.  These are the preconditions, I believe, for showing fidelity to the Avirodha principle.

 

When a leader is unshaken by hosannas, is able to separate criticism from the malice it is intertwined with, has cultivated the humility to acknowledge error and the wisdom to promote criticism, he/she disarms the ill-willed and is strengthened by a greater degree of trust.  When a leader betrays the opposite character-strains, he/she sharpens the weapons of the opponent, loses the trust of the citizenry and slips to a point where idea is abandoned in favour of the hardware relevant to maintaining political authority. 

 

No ruler in history had it easy.  Enemies there always will be. Those who are remembered in history not just for the great conquests or driving back invaders are those who fought the enemy but without enmity.  Meeting weapon with weapon is perhaps inevitable but those who are not burdened by hatred but instead empowered by a sense of equanimity have a greater chance of emerging victor in the clash of swords. 

 

The same can be said for 'soft' battles.  There is a way in which coercion of a non-weapon kind can be employed to win a battle over ideas, to quell criticism, but that's the way of the coward and the weak, not of the statesman or a leader of, for and with the people. Such leaders would be very lonely creatures for even friend is not friendly, but inevitably a sycophant and self-seeker. 

 

Avirodha is a virtue that can produce social harmony.  It is not enough to appear benign, but that quality should find expression in word and deed, in law-making and the execution of articles in the constitution, in spirit and in articulation.  Only a leader that is able to obtain the true pulse of a people, able to differentiate relevant nuance and get a sense of the tone and temper of heartbeats can see himself in citizen, incomplete, flawed, armed with conviction as well as doubt, and perforce acquire the humility to rule and be ruled by their will.  This ends this series on the Dasa Raja Dharma.  The entire set is intended to be 'note'; conclusion and response lie with reader.  This will be followed by another series, again drawn from the incomparable wisdom of my teacher, Siddhartha Gauthama, our Budun Wahanse, this time on his insightful and pithy discourse on free inquiry, the Kalama Sutra, which, to me, is a must-read for the would-be radical. 

 

Sabbe Satta Bhavantu

 

Sukhitatta; may all beings be happy!

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

CHINA'S CALIBRATED BALANCING ACT

 

The back-to-back visits by Premier Wen Jiabao to India and Pakistan have underlined Beijing's careful balancing act between two sets of bilateral relationships, both important to it for different reasons. The complex India-China engagement is powered by the rising economies of the two countries and the mutual desire to manage their global ambitions without conflict; its strong strategic ties with Pakistan have been built on a convergence of regional goals. China has been more than conscious that while it engages with India, nothing about this should make Islamabad nervous. It is thus no surprise that after Premier Wen's New Delhi visit, during which both sides made deliberate efforts to arrest a perceptible slide in their political relationship while setting new targets for the booming trade relationship, his three-day stay in Islamabad yielded enough reassurances to Pakistan that its "all-weather friendship" with China was intact. Certainly, the ties with China are the best Pakistan enjoys with any big power. Islamabad receives financial and diplomatic support from Beijing that has no strings attached, at least publicly. Nor is it at the receiving end of public admonishments on harbouring terrorist networks. Beijing unconditionally sells military hardware to Pakistan, and is the only nuclear power prepared to assist its nuclear programme. In turn, Islamabad is reverential in the way it conducts itself with China, swallowing a crushing imbalance in trade relations and quick to respond to quiet pressure from Beijing to crack down on Pakistan-based militant networks that stir trouble in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region.

 

Entirely in keeping with all this, China and Pakistan signed several agreements in diverse fields ranging from banking and trade to space technology and agriculture. Beijing announced a $410 million post-floods aid package, in addition to the $200 million it gave earlier. While in Islamabad, Premier Wen praised the Pakistan government for its efforts to combat terrorism. He balanced this by a studious silence on the Kashmir issue, a decision that will be welcomed in India, especially in the light of recent tensions over the stapled Chinese visas to visitors from Jammu & Kashmir. Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani may have been fishing for a Chinese role in 'facilitating dialogue' with India on Kashmir but it is apparent that Beijing is keen to reiterate its neutrality on the issue. All in all, if there was one overarching message from Premier Wen's swing through South Asia, it was that China would not be drawn into a zero-sum game between India and Pakistan.

 

The Hindu

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

IT IS DEVOLUTION AND NOT DECENTRALIZATION THAT IS GOOD FOR SL

AUSTIN FERNANDO

 

I envy lucky man Sathyamoorthi because he is an Indian. If he were a Sri Lankan, tomorrow he will be called "Traitor Sathyamoorthi" for having said that it is devolution and not decentralization that is good for Sri Lanka.

 

 'Seconding' Sathyamoorthi Why?

 

Firstly, it is because the conflict was for power sharing and not power delegation that is achieved by decentralization, which has been tried and failed, resulting in a 30-year conflict. However, an eccentric may question why share power when there is no conflict. Then why increase military power when there is no conflict? Both are for future safety is my belief.

 

Secondly, devolution within a unitary state is possible according to the Supreme Courts as declared when the 13th Amendment was introduced. I pick this point because anti-devolutionists are very worried over losing the unitary state model.

 

Some have even gone to the extent of asking for the Aceh Model power sharing because it was implemented under a unitary state. They little realize that Aceh gave exhaustive powers to the insurgent group than the 13th Amendment.

 

Thirdly, constitutional problems for power sharing do not arise because the 13th Amendment is already in the Constitution.

 

Fourthly, because as Sathyamoorthi says 'Decentralisation' is not a substitute for 'devolution'.

 

For clarification I may mention that governmental power can be shared mainly through four approaches.

 

One is to retain power at the Centre and decentralize for execution purposes to units at the periphery. For example, defence, immigration, elections etc.

 

Second are the devolved powers as decided by the Constitution, which may even be identified along with concurrent powers, as in Lists I in the 13th Amendment.

 

Third is the handing over of powers to the private sector on policy formulated by the Centre which may be accelerated in a liberalized economy.

 

Fourth are the powers that are delegated to non governmental organizations, people's organizations and civil society, as in case of engaging the Red Cross, Cooperatives, Rural Development Societies etc. 

 

To reinforce him further I may mention that there are three main powers to be possessed by a devolved unit (i.e. a PC). They are the power: to make Statutes; to generate and manage revenue; and, for manpower management. These powers are not possessed by decentralized units, which operate on laws made by the Centre, financed by the Centre; and, manpower managed on central authorization.

 

However, the PCs have sometimes not operated on these parameters.

 

With the latest direction for PCs to obtain approval of the line ministries before passage of statutes by the PCs negates one power. I am yet to find any Article in the Constitution to directly permitting such demand.

 

The PC finances were managed by the Centre through the Finance Commission, irrespective of which government was in power. Even the limited power they had is being abrogated now. The latest decision of the government to withdraw the Business Turnover Tax from the hands of the PCs through the Budget is the best example of financial crucification of  PCs, as lamented by the Eastern Chief Minister.

 

The negative experience quoted by many PCs on engagement of personnel violates the earlier mentioned third power. The Eastern PC's often quoted case of employing five drivers for buses donated by India or the Advisor for the Chief Minister showed where authority lied for manpower management. The absurdity is how these issues were ultimately solved, which I do not quote, lest I be found fault for being a Wikileak-wallah!

 

Of course, Chief Ministers generally kept mum throughout with plasters over their mouths when these happened, because they wanted to be Chief Ministers!

 

Fifthly, devolution has succeeded globally in many instances though there had been failures too. Since the Constitution provides for devolution, with long experience and a demand for it, I believe giving a try is easier than trying the "failed". This does not preclude the PCs from various criticisms of non-sharing power and mismanagement. Additionally, lethargy, corruption, inefficiency, ineffectiveness, lacking economy etc are hurled against the PCs and they are called "White Elephants". These are criticisms hurled against the Centre too. Are we prepared to close shop at the Centre in response to such criticisms? Did the incumbent government cease the war due to criticisms? Can we call some central arrangements like hundreds of advisors, Senior Ministers, Monitoring Parliamentarians as not creating "White Elephants"? The need is to seriously consult, develop supervisory mechanisms and make improvements.

 

To be continued tomorrow

 

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

POLITICIANS AND NEW YEAR RESOLUTIONS

 

January 1 represents the fresh start of a new year after a period of remembrance of the passing year. Often media publishes articles that review the changes during the previous year. There are also articles on planned or expected changes in the coming year.

 

New Year resolutions are often based on the hope that one can change a habit that is perceived as detrimental to oneself and develop a goal that would be of benefit. As such, resolutions are always based on the hope of achieving a change.

 

 One wonders what resolutions  we Sri Lankans who seem to live in a permanent state of hope, want to make if we were to emulate the mythical god Janus representing January first who had two faces one to look back at the past and the other to look forward to a better future. Perhaps, if the people in our once considered the paradise island now claimed by politicians would soon be the wonder of Asia , were  asked what resolutions they would wish to see taken, most of them would unanimously opt that first the politicians in this country take some resolutions with a greater determination to meet their obligations to the people.

 

We certainly have a couple of ministers who are vociferous on all matters pertaining not only to their specific ministries but also to other matters which are of little consequence to the immediate  concerns of the people. After all whether Nepal asked our advice on their problems or did not would not bother the blue and white colour workers striving to exist on their paltry salaries .

 

 The Christmas festive season ended with eggs reaching an all time high and big onions scarcely available. The young Minister, who perhaps never needed to do any marketing suddenly wakes up to the difficulties the people are facing and says with assured confidence that eggs and chicken from India will reach our markets soon. While that may temporarily ease the present shortage instead why not resolve to  initiate discussions with the present small scale poultry farmers to find out their difficulties including the high price of poultry food and work out programmmes  so that instead of importing eggs and chicken we will have sufficient stocks in the market perhaps even to export.

 

Maybe ministers without taking short cut solutions to meet immediate problems should have learnt by now to  resolve in setting out definite plans of action to prevent such problems from arising. Then again another Ministry wants the divisional secretaries to check out on children who do not attend school and report to court. They are not bothered about the reasons why, but most divisional secretaries are aware that when the smaller rural schools are closed down parents are unable to pay for the transport of their children to a popular school further away from their villages. A young fourteen-year-old just promoted to Grade 10 said rather sadly, ' I have to wear a white longs and a white shirt to school, my parents   have not been able to get any labour work yet so maybe I will stay at home and help them'.

 

While personal New Year's resolutions usually refer to improving  health, lose weight, exercise more, eat better, drink less alcohol, quit smoking , get out of debt, get a better job,  get a better education, learn something new, manage time, be more independent  and volunteer to help others. Perhaps politicians would benefit by resolving to follow the advice given in a calendar many years ago "I will this year  try to live a simple, sincere and serene life, repelling every thought of self seeking, cultivate magnanimity, exercise economy on expenditure, carefulness in conversation and diligence in appointed service and fidelity to every trust placed on me by the people."

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DAILY MIRROR

EDITORIAL

THE NATIONAL ANTHEM SAGA – IN DEFENCE OF THE PRESIDENT

DR. TELLI C RAJARATNAM

 

A National Anthem should be sung in its original version in the original language it was composed. All citizens should learn the meaning whatever race they belong. The national Anthem should be sung in Sri Lanka only in Sinhala. One national anthem, one nation.

 

Article 7 of the Constitution of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka states  " The National Anthem of the Republic of Sri Lanka shall be "Sri Lanka Matha," the words and music of which are set out in the Third Schedule".

 

The third schedule contains only the words in Sinhala. As such the only valid and legal version of the National Anthem is the official Sinhala version. Sri Lankas literacy rate is very high, all citizens can know the meaning of the national anthem and sing it within an hour. It is the Tamil politicians with militant ideologies who are provoking and inciting unrest amongst the people and the international community.

 

Recently it was reported that a responsible Tamil politician had denied that the Tamil version was abolished. This was an indirect blow to the Government being with the Government. There was never an official legal version of the National anthem for it to be abolished. It never existed and never should be an issue hereafter. We cannot translate names to suit the whims and fancies of Tamil militants who are still trying to resuscitate terrorism for their own benefits whilst playing lip service to democracy.

 

A national Anthem (also national hymn, song etc.) is a  patriotic musical composition that evokes and eulogizes the history and traditions of its people, recognized either by a nation's government as the official national song, or by convention through used by the people.

 

Anthems rose to prominence in Europe during the 19th century, but some are much older in origin; the oldest national anthem is "Het Wilhelmus", the Dutch national anthem, written between 1568 and 1572 during the Dutch Revolt.

 

 "God Save the Queen", the national anthem of the United Kingdom and one of the two national anthems of New Zealand, was first performed in 1745 under the title "God Save the King".

 

Spain's national anthem, the "Marcha Real" (The Royal March), dates from 1770 (written in 1761).

 

The oldest of Denmark's two national anthems, "Kong Christian stod ved højen mast" was adopted in 1780 and "La Marseillaise", the French anthem, was written in 1792 and adopted in 1795.

 

 The majority of national anthems are either marches or hymns in style. The countries of Latin America tend towards more operatic pieces, while a handful of countries use a simple fanfare.

 

In some countries, the national anthem is played to students each day at the start of school as an exercise in patriotism. In other countries the anthem may be played in a theatre before a play or in a cinema before a movie. Many radio and television stations have adopted this and play the national anthem when they sign on in the morning and again when they sign off at night.

 

A few anthems have been composed by Nobel prize winners. India and Bangladesh adopted two songs written

by the first Asian Nobel prize winner and noted Bengali poet/author Rabindranath Tagore as their national anthems, Jana Gana Mana and Amar Shonar Bangla, respectively. This is a very rare occasion where one person is the author of the national anthems of two different countries, if not unique.

 

Sri Lanka Matha is the national anthem of Sri Lanka. The words and music were written by Ananda

Samarakoon in 1940 in the Sinhala language, and was officially adopted as the national anthem on November

22, 1951 by a committee headed by Sir Edwin Wijeyeratne.           

 

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TEHRAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

ISRAEL'S IMAGE CAMPAIGN A FAÇADE

BY AS'AD ABDUL RAHMAN

 

The Israeli Foreign Ministry recently asked its embassies around the world to get ready to launch a public relations campaign 'to repair' Israel's image and reputation, which have reached a horrifying low ebb. And this is negatively affecting Israeli "national security"! 

 

The ministry has doubled the public relations budget to run this international campaign. It also asked its embassies to rally the "die hard" supporters of the Zionist regime from among the Jewish communities, fundamentalist Christians who call themselves "Zionist Christians", journalists and politicians to join this campaign. An increasing number of people around the world now see Israel as being similar to the most despised and hated regimes of the 20th century -- like the Nazis in Germany and South Africa's apartheid rulers. For their part, Israeli officials believe that Israel's image is in dire need of some beautifying touches. Yet, regardless of these touches, the ugliness of Israel seems to be beyond repair. 

The world used to view Israel in the past as a small and democratic entity trying to survive in the middle of "a feudalistic, barbaric" region filled with "corruption". This image now seems to be changing with the world seeing Israel as a colonial occupier, an apartheid regime, an abuser of religion, robber of Palestinian land and a killer and jailer of thousands of Palestinian children (and many others). 

Most recently, the Israeli media described Israel as a country being governed by very corrupt politicians who could not handle a forest fire in Haifa, but could arrogantly risk "starting a war which might bring thousands of rockets falling on all major cities of Israel". Furthermore, one of the main issues currently being debated in Israel is the rise of "organized crime" and its increasing control over Israeli politicians. The two main criminal groups, according to Israeli media, are "the Abu Rjeili Family and the Russian Mafia". Drugs, prostitution and money laundering are bringing in billions of dollars in profits. Another issue discussed openly in the Israeli press relates to religious Jews who are having seven or 10 children in each family "to match the Arab birth rate", but they refuse to work or serve in the Israeli military because they are only devoted to the "study of the Torah". 

The transformation of the Zionist entity from a secular "state" into a religious one, which began in the 1970s under the Likud party, has encouraged Muslims "to take up arms demanding religious states of their own". This transformation has also turned the Arab-Israeli conflict into a "fight till death" which can only end, according to some groups, by "weapons of mass destruction" hitting "major cities in America and Israel as well". The notion of such a "fight" has now drawn the attention of the "Christian Right" in the United States who call themselves "Christian Zionists" and are eager to see an "Armageddon" in the Middle East, which they believe would bring the "Second Coming". These so-called Christians form the Republican base that supported the election of former U.S. president George W. Bush. They are the most ardent supporters of the neo-conservatives who won the recent Congressional elections in the U.S. 

Legacy of the Crusades 

All secular western countries are Christian states in the eyes of many Muslims because of the "Christian Crusades" of the past, which plundered the "Muslim East" in the name of religion. Seeing Israel robbing the Palestinians of their land and freedom with "western Christian help", Al-Qaeda raised the "New Jewish-Christian crusade" slogan, which has been attracting thousands of Muslims who are ready "to die defending Islam". A conflict between fundamentalists who are hell bent on trying to remove each other is indeed "a fight till death", thanks mainly to the Israel's colonial and Jewish fundamentalist policy. Israel is currently losing its legitimacy as a "state" with more nations casting doubt on its status in many ways. On the other hand, some world governments are now recognizing the 1967 borders as the official border of the Palestinian state, raising doubts about the legality of Israel's self-claimed borders, thus rendering Israel's illegal annexation of Palestinian and Arab lands null and void. 

Meanwhile, the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against Israel, thanks to the Palestinian civil society movement, has grown to become the current policy of many civil society and non-governmental organizations. The proposed public relations campaign is only a facade designed to camouflage a sinister Israeli policy. 

A growing number of analysts believe that the only way out for Israel is "to start a regional war" which drags in the United States "to annihilate enemies of Israel" in the region! Nathan Sharanasky, Director of the Jewish Agency, revealed the plan in his statement, saying "Israel is facing an international campaign to take away its legitimate status as a state. It is a real war that threatens our vital strategic interests and existence. We must answer with a strike to be followed by another strike!" 

Professor As'ad Abdul Rahman is the Chairman of the Palestinian Encyclopaedia. 

(Source: Gulf News) 

 

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TEHRAN TIMES

EDITORIAL

BANKERS, OLIGARCHS, MEDIA MAGNATES AND LEAKERS

BY MAIDHC Ó CATHAIL

 

In a recent interview with Democracy Now's Amy Goodman, world-renowned British novelist John le Carré briefly touched the third rail of respectable political discourse: 

 

JOHN LE CARRÉ: We also have a charming case, which we look back on with embarrassment, where a leading member of the Rothschild family and our present Chancellor of the Exchequer—that's finance minister and the éminence grise of the Labour Party at that time, Lord Mandelson, were all found holidaying together off the coast of Corfu, sitting on the boat of a man called Deripaska, who at that time, I believe, was wanted in the United States for -- on money laundering charges. So we have a certain amount of evidence before us which you would think would silence critics who say we're all in perfect shape. 

 

AMY GOODMAN: Could you read the beginning of Our Kind of Traitor? 

Apparently, Amy Goodman was so eager to hear le Carré's fictional account of international corruption that she hadn't time to ask him about the very real connection between Nathaniel Rothschild and Oleg Deripaska -- one of eight of the nine richest Russian oligarchs who qualify for Israeli citizenship. With the help of an advisory team hand-picked by the pro-Israeli Larry Summers, President Barack Obama's former top economic adviser, the oligarchs looted an estimated $1 trillion from Russia's struggling post-Communist economy. Or enough to buy lots of art, sports teams and yachts like the one on which Deripaska entertained prominent members of Britain's political elite. Goodman might have also recalled that in 2003 another oligarch, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, had named Nathaniel's father, Lord Jacob Rothschild, as a possible successor to take over his Yukos oil company shares if he were jailed on fraud charges. When Khodorkovsky was subsequently put on trial by the Russian state, the Rothschild-connected Economist magazine disparaged the case as a "show trial." 

With these behind-the-scenes machinations in mind, let's take a brief look at whether there might be more to the WikiLeaks saga than meets the eye… 

WikiLeaks: A Very Short Coincidence Theory 

It is surely just a coincidence that the law firm -- Finers Stephens Innocent --which represents Julian Assange and set up the Julian Assange Defense Fund is also legal adviser to the Rothschild Waddesdon Trust; that the partially Rothschild-owned Economist gave Assange its 2008 Freedom of Expression Award; that Lord Rothschild is deputy chairman of BSkyB, whose warmongering chairman Rupert Murdoch and his propagandist father were lauded as fearless advocates of the truth by the WikiLeaks founder in an op-ed in the Murdoch-owned The Australian; that Benjamin Netanyahu, who often stays with Murdoch in London and has the award-winning pro-Israel media magnate on his "list of millionaires" (i.e. potential donors), was not only the sole world leader "undoubtedly delighted" by the leaks but was singled out by Assange as a believer in diplomatic transparency; and that the criminal state for which WikiLeaks provided an unexpected "diplomatic coup" was first promised to British Zionists in an enigmatic 1917 letter to an earlier Lord Rothschild. 

These intriguing connections—which might appear suspicious to those suffering from the "crippled epistemology" associated with anti-Semitic conspiracy theories are undoubtedly coincidental. 

Maidhc Ó Cathail writes extensively on U.S. foreign policy and the Middle East. 

 

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