EDITORIAL SAMARTH: July 2011

Please contact the list owner of subscription and unsubscription at: editorial@samarth.co.in

media watch with peoples input an organization of rastriya abhyudaya

Editorial

month july 18, edition 000887, collected & managed by durgesh kumar mishra, published by – manish manjul

Editorial is syndication of all daily- published newspaper Editorial at one place.

For ENGLISH EDITORIAL http://editorialsamarth.blogspot.com

THE PIONEER

COALITION COMPULSIONS

LONG ROAD TO DEMOCRACY

GETTING WORSE BY THE DAY - BALBIR K PUNJ

REFORM SYSTEM TO FIGHT TERROR - SHASHI SHEKHAR

FAITH IN STATE'S ABILITY FURTHER ERODED - B RAMAN

DEFENCE, DEVELOPMENT AND NATIONAL SECURITY - BHARTENDU KUMAR SINGH

THE TIMES OF INDIA

AN EPIC ENDS

THE FIFTH ESTATE

THE WAY OF SATYAGRAHA - MADHU PURNIMA KISHWAR

'RAGGING IS A MENACE THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR DUCATIONAL SYSTEM'

FREE TRADE, SAFE TRADE

HINDUSTAN TIMES

GIRD UP FOR A DIFFICULT RIDE

SEARCH AND FORGET

OUTSOURCING TERROR - AJIT DOVAL

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

REVOLUTION NEXT

MAKING THE CUT

SPEAK, MEMORY

LOOKING AT ASIA - C. RAJA MOHAN

CHESS AND THE CITY - JAIDEEP UNUDURTI

HOW RUDE REALITY SET IN AT THAGLA - INDER MALHOTRA

THE MAXIMUM THREAT - DILIP BOBB

A LIFE OF POLITICS, PARTITION AND POETRY - UMA VASUDEV

MEDICINE'S ETERNAL VIGILANCE - SIDDHARTHA MUKHERJEE

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

WHAT'S A TREND? - SHOMBIT SENGUPTA

SEX BAROMETER FOR A PRESIDENT? - SHOMBIT SENGUPTA

ZAHEER KHAN: A PIONEER IN THE ART OF BOWLING - BORIA MAJUMDAR

ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: ANOTHER YEAR OF WASTE - ROGER COHEN

THE HINDU

SUDAN TO LAUNCH NEW CURRENCY

NO. 1 MUST ASSERT ITSELF

THE LONG ROAD AHEAD

ECLECTIC ARCHITECTURE, EXQUISITE FEATURES - T.S. SUBRAMANIAN

AADHAAR: ON A PLATFORM OF MYTHS - R. RAMAKUMAR

RECONCILIATION AND NATION BUILDING: THE MANDELA WAY - AHMED KATHRADA

THE ASIAN AGE

WORLD ON EDGE AS US ON THE BRINK

SPELL, INTERRUPTED - S. NIHAL SINGH

DAILY EXCELSIOR

CONTINUED RE-ENGAGEMENTT

BLASTS CONDEMNED

DEPARTMENT OF POSTS? OR, DEPARTMENT OF RURAL BANKING? – BY DR BHARAT JHUNJHUNWALA

EDUCATION IN RURAL INDIA - BY RAM RATTAN SHARMA

ISHWAR ALLAH TERO NAM - BY AMIT KUSHARI (IAS RETD)

THE TRIBUNE

CROSSING THE LINE

SOARING SUCCESS

DOMESTIC ABUSE

CAUTION: WORK IN PROGRESS

SOME DEADWOOD STILL THERE

CHANDIGARH, THEN AND NOW - BY ASHOK KUMAR YADAV

IMRAN SCORES A POPULAR CENTURY - ASHA'AR REHMAN

INDIA SHOULD BE PROACTIVE IN PROMOTING REGIONAL PEACE - IRFAN HUSAIN

BUSINESS STANDARD

DOUBLE MINT

NEW CLIMATE IN AUSTRALIA

SECESSION OF THE SUCCESSFUL - SANJAYA BARU

LAND IS LIVELIHOOD, DON'T FORGET - SUNITA NARAIN

THE CHARGE OF THE SMALL TOWNS - N CHANDRA MOHAN

BUFFALO ON THE TRACKS - VINAYAK CHATTERJEE

BUSINESS LINE

GROWING INDIA, SHRINKING BHARAT

MEANING OF A 'CROP HOLIDAY' THIS KHARIF - K. V. KURMANATH

WALMART: LESSONS FROM THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE - CHITRA NARAYANAN

THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

OVERHAUL POLICY

FAB FABLES

WIVES OF OTHERS

GROWTH TO OUTWEIGH INFLATION

SMALL CARS TO DRIVE TOYOTA BRAND IN INDIA - CHANCHAL PAL CHAUHAN

CCI GOT IT WRONG - MYTHILI BHUSNURMATH

MUMBAI MIRROR

WHY THERE ISN'T AN INDIAN MURDOCH

DECCAN CHRONICAL

WORLD ON EDGE AS US ON THE BRINK

SPELL, INTERRUPTED

CLASH OF GENERATIONS FOR JUSTICE, FREEDOM

I HAVE A DREAM

MINISTER FLUNKS IN THEORY

THE STATESMAN

UNSPLENDID ISOLATION

THIRD-PARTY REVIEW

ADMIRABLE, ASH

OMNIPOTENT OMBUDSMAN - AJENDRA SRIVASTAVA

THE TELEGRAPH

AFTER BENGAL

ARAB SUPERHERO

HUSAIN IS SAFELY DEAD - ASHOK MITRA

THERE'S QUITE A LOT IN A NAME - S.N. MENON

HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

WHAT CLINTON IS ACTUALLY SAYING

WE WANT OUR SONS TO LIVE

WOMEN 'APPEAR' IN TURKEY'S PARLIAMENT

LOST IN WHOSE TRANSLATION?

MANDELA, THE EX-CONVICT WHO RECONCILED A NATION

HAARETZ

HOW TO ACHIEVE HOUSING FOR ALL

HAMAS, HELD CAPTIVE BY SHALIT - BY AMIR OREN

NOT RETIRING - BY MERAV MICHAELI

THE END OF THE DOWNTRODDEN TIMES - BY KARNI ELDAD

GREEN FOR THE RICH - BY ZAFRIR RINAT

THE NEWS

FOREWARNED

SHAKY CENSUS

TELLING STATISTICS

THE ORDEAL OF PROVING RAPE - S IFTIKHAR MURSHED

WORDS WITHOUT THOUGHT - HUSSAIN H ZAIDI

THE JUDICIARY, JUSTICE AND THE RULERS - DR A Q KHAN

MOTHERS, SAVE PAKISTAN - ZIRGHAM NABI AFRIDI

A TEST FOR THE ARMY - ASIF EZDI

ISRAEL AND THE FLOTILLAS - ERIC WALBERG

PAKISTAN OBSERVER

MENDING TIES WITH US

JAILERS ARE HOSTAGES TO PRISONERS

CHINA RIGHTLY PROTESTS OBAMA-LAMA MEETING

ZULFIKAR MIRZA'S VENOMOUS STATEMENT - AMBASSADOR'S DIARY

ABBOTTABAD FIASCO: AN INTROSPECTION! - AIR CDRE KHALID IQBAL (R)

BRAIN DRAIN PROBLEM - AHMAD A QURAISHI

WE'RE SPENT - DAVID LEONHARDT

THE AUSTRALIYAN

GOVERNMENT MUST HEED ECONOMIC WAKE-UP CALL

GM CROPS

PLAYING STRAIGHT PROTECTS SPORT

THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

CARBON TEST OF PM'S FIBRE

HIGHWAY OF EMBARRASSMENT

WHY GILLARD HAS TO WORK HARDER ON CARBON TAX

EASY RIDERS NOT READY FOR THE ROADS

THE GUARDIAN

US DEBT BATTLE: SHOWDOWN ON CAPITAL HILL

SIR PAUL STEPHENSON'S RESIGNATION: SIR PAUL'S PARTHIAN SHOT

IN PRAISE OF… ABDUL JABBAR

THE JAKARTA POST

CALMING THE SEAS BETWEEN ASEAN AND CHINA - SIMON TAY

INSTITUTIONAL REFORM: TODAY'S NEEDED NEXT-GENERATION REFORM - MARIA MONICA WIHARDJA

BERSIH 2.0 AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM HISTORY - DENNIS G. KLOETH

REDD+: A PATHWAY TO PROSPERITY - WAHJUDI WARDOJO AND GREG FISHBEIN

DAILY MIRROR

THE ISSUE IS ABOUT SRI LANKANS

RIGHTS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF OUR VOCATION

THE REAL TRUTH BEHIND THE POWER CRISIS - BY PATALI CHAMPIKA RANAWAKA

MALAYSIA'S DILEMMA: CAN IT REFORM AND DISCRIMINATE? - BY BILL TARRANT

GULF DAILY NEWS

ARABS DISLIKE OBAMA EVEN MORE THAN BUSH - BY DR JAMES ZOGBY PRESIDENT

MACDONALD ON MONDAY

IT'S NOW TIME TO SHOW MATURITY - BY C MOORE

TEHRAN TIMES

HOW THE ARAB WORLD LOST SOUTHERN SUDAN - BY LAMIS ANDONI

CONTINUED U.S. PRESENCE UNDERMINES IRAQ'S POLITICAL UNITY - BY ARDESHIR PASHANG

MILLIONS CELEBRATED THE 15TH OF SHA'BAN IN IRAN

**************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

COALITION COMPULSIONS

BUT PEOPLE AREN'T REALLY INTERESTED IN DETAILS

Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan need not feel contrite for blurting out the truth about the structurally untenable nature of the coalition Government he heads in Maharashtra. Although the Congress and the NCP are partners and political allies in the State — as also at the Centre — they are separate entities with their respective agendas. No matter how well-tuned an alliance may be, there are bound to be differences in perception and gaps in coordinated action. To that extent, Mr Chavan cannot be faulted for ruing the fact that the crucial Home portfolio is with the NCP and not the Congress; preferably it should have been with him, especially because Maharashtra is now a key frontline State bearing the brunt of terrorist attacks. Hence, it would be unfair to hold him accountable for the state of law and order in Maharashtra, although it could be argued that the principle of collective responsibility does make him answerable for lapses that may have contributed to last Wednesday's triple bombings. But the power-sharing arrangement that now offends the Chief Minister is not something new, nor is it of much concern to the people at large, not the least because the details of who holds which portfolio are rendered irrelevant when lives are threatened with such impunity. Frankly, if Mr Chavan has an issue, he should raise it with the Congress's high command for a resolution to his satisfaction. That his party's supreme leader may refuse to tinker with the arrangement is an entirely different matter: Power-sharing arrangements are more often than not driven by compulsions that have little to do with governance. For evidence, witness the mess that prevails in New Delhi where the Prime Minister has no say on who gets to hold which portfolio or in directing the framing and implementation of policy. In fact, despite the key Ministries being with the Congress, it has not helped him exercise either power or authority.

What should be of greater concern to the people of Maharashtra (and elsewhere in India) is that it took more than 15 minutes for the Chief Minister to establish contact with senior Mumbai Police officers. Apparently, all cellular networks were jammed — the load was predictably high in the immediate aftermath of the bombings — and there was nothing that Mr Chavan could do but twiddle his thumbs in despair. It is amazing that despite all the tall talk of placing new systems in place to strengthen the internal security structure we still live in times that are no different from that which prevailed when 26/11 happened. This is not about our inability to harness new technology or upgrade existing systems of communications. All that was required was to allow the Chief Minister access to the dedicated bandwave for the Mumbai Police wireless network. Had that been done, Mr Chavan could have communicated with senior police officers without any delay. This can still be done — and, indeed, it should be done in every State — but, as always, instead of looking for simple solutions to seemingly difficult problems, the official response has been to think in terms of acquiring new gadgets and sophisticated equipment. Mr Chavan has said that his Government will purchase satellite phones to ensure real time communications in future. That may impress the uninitiated and ill-informed, but it's unlikely to make Mumbai or Maharashtra any more secure than it is today.

***************************************

THE PIONEER

COLUMN

LONG ROAD TO DEMOCRACY

IT'S LONGER THAN THE BRIDGE ACROSS TAHRIR SQUARE

In a bid to mollify the thousands of protesters who have once again returned to Tahrir Square, this time demanding Government and police officials accused of resorting to violent means to put down dissent during the last days of the Hosni Mubarak regime be swiftly punished, Egypt's transitional military Government announced last week that nearly 700 officers would be relieved from their professional duties. While some would be removed for firing on and killing protesters during the 18-day-long agitation that led to the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, others would lose their jobs for being involved in corruption. Such largescale 'cleansing' of Egypt's powerful security apparatus is no doubt a huge concession by the ruling military. And that is not all. This past week, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces also gave into another popular demand when it announced that elections, that had earlier been scheduled for September, would be postponed to either October or November so as to give more time to the country's new political parties as they prepare themselves to compete against the Muslim Brotherhood and other similarly well-organised Islamist groups. This was preceded by the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Yahya al-Gamal because protesters perceived him to be too close to Mr Mubarak's business associates. Earlier, the former Prime Minister and several former Ministers with loyalities to the previous regime were convicted on charges of corruption and fraud. Clearly, the military council is doing its share to deliver to the people what was promised to them: Peace, freedom and democracy.

But it is also imperative for the people to realise that Cairo cannot become the seat of the perfectly functioning democratic Government in a matter of months. Today, the average Egyptian is trying to compress into a space of a few months the complex processes of configuring governance models and establishing democratic institutions that other countries have taken years and decades to achieve. Look at Nepal, for example: It has been more than five years since that country's monarchy made way for parliamentary democracy but its elected Constituent Assembly is still struggling to write up its Constitution. Understandably after years of autocratic rule, Egyptians are now impatient for democracy and are clearly under the impression that if they camp out long enough at Tahrir Square all their troubles will come to an end. This mindset needs to change. Egypt needs to give its leaders, both the ruling military today and the representatives it will elect later this year, adequate time and space to steer the country towards stable democratic rule while citizens themselves keep their side of the deal. This means they need to get out of Tahrir Square and get back to work. ***************************************

THE PIONEER

OPED

GETTING WORSE BY THE DAY

BALBIR K PUNJ

With the UPA Government floundering, the Supreme Court has no other option but to step in though overreach is undesirable.

The recent reshuffle of the Union Council of Ministers not only had the media pontificating on its pointlessness for days but also highlighted the fact that the Government's last hope to convince the people of this country that it is still here to govern is now as good as dead. As it is, 'civil society' activists have declared that the emperor is without clothes after seeking (and failing) to dictate to the Government on how the proposed Lok Pal Bill should be fashioned while gaining considerable public support for their agenda.

Just how weak the Government and the Prime Minister have been rendered can be gauged from the fact that a former Minister of State for Railways, when asked by Mr Manmohan Singh to go to the site of the recent train accident, retorted: "I am not the Minister for Railways, it is the Prime Minister." A Minister of State refusing to act on the instructions of the Prime Minister? What could show the Government in a worse light?

Former Solicitor-General Gopal Subramaniam's resignation over the Government attempt to privatise its legal defence further exposes this Government to ridicule. If the Government now loses face on a series of issues in the Supreme Court, it will not mean that the defence lawyers are professionally poor but that governance is beyond redemption. From the appointment of a bureaucrat named as an accused in a case of corruption as the Chief Vigilance Commissioner to the 2G Spectrum scandal, from the Commonwealth Games lootfest to the black money issue, the Supreme Court has repeatedly berated the Government and exposed the Prime Minister as ineffective.

The Supreme Court's decision to set up its own inquiry panel on the black money issue is the worst setback that the UPA Government has suffered till date. There may be much to say about what is termed as judicial overreach and its intrusion into the domain of the executive, but there are those who argue that the Supreme Court had no other option. What was the Supreme Court to do when it found that the Government was neither seriously pursuing the case against Hasan Ali Khan nor undertaking any efforts to bring back black money stashed abroad?

The Supreme Court's verdict in each of these cases has been similar in substance. In the case against the appointment of a bureaucrat accused of corruption as the CVC, the Government did not produce all the documents. Which means it deliberately wanted to select a particular person for the job. In the 2G Spectrum scam case, the Supreme Court had to monitor the investigations directly because the Government was not conducting its duty "with the degree of seriousness that is warranted".

Similarly, the Government's investigative agencies like the CBI and the ED were taking contradictory stands on Hasan Ali Khan and were not serious enough to arrest him for his alleged offences, including money laundering. On a host of important issues, the Supreme Court's verdicts add up to a judicial statement: This Government cannot be trusted to do its job in accordance with the law.

The Supreme Court too has come under a lot of criticism for other verdicts. For example, its decision to accept the bail petition of the Maoist-sympathiser Binayak Sen, its verdict declaring illegal the self-defence forces organised by tribal villagers in Chhattisgarh to protect themselves from Maoists and its order to the State Government to disband the force of SPOs at once, its criticism of the Union Government's 'neo-liberal' economic policies and holding them responsible for the generation of black money, and its criticism of State Governments' land acquisition policies have been perceived as crossing the boundary that separates the domain of the judiciary from that of the executive and the legislature.

Even those who fully agree with the Supreme Court's action on the issue of black money are not comfortable with its commentary on economic policies. The court was clearly straying into the domain of political ideology when it pronounced: "Price based notions of value and values, as propounded by some extreme neo-liberal doctrines, implies that the values that ought to be promoted in societies, are the ones for which people are willing to pay a price for." The Supreme Court, it would appear, blames the neglect of those values that have no market value for the mess that prevails in the country.

The Supreme Court has seemingly taken a contradictory stand on crucial matters such as an individual's rights against those of the state. In the case of Binayak Sen, the Supreme Court ruled that it was the individual's basic right to have an ideological stand and thus granted him bail. Yet, Binayak Sen had earlier been sentenced by a lower court and the High Court for actively promoting insurgency, murder and mayhem. But when it came to ruling on the legality of Salwa Judum, a self-defence initiative organised by tribal villagers against Maoist depredations, the same Supreme Court's observations could be construed as being to the contrary. While ordering the immediate disarming of SPOs, who are part of the Salwa Judum movement, the court said: "People do not take up arms in an organised fashion against the might of the state or against fellow human beings without rhyme or reason."

There is a law in this country that says taking up arms against the state is an offence punishable by death. Are we then justifying violence? If so, would it be fair to say that convicted terrorists like Devender Pal Singh Bhullar and Afzal Guru who are on death row were also justified in their actions because they too did not take up arms against the state "without rhyme or reason"?

The UPA regime and the Congress which heads it exulted when the Supreme Court took upon itself to set up an SIT to inquire into several cases related to the 2002 post-Godhra violence in Gujarat and alleged false encounters. The Government and the Congress are now in a rage over the Supreme Court setting up an SIT to inquire into black money and related issues. The Supreme Court is now being accused of judicial overreach.

The rot in the Government runs far deeper than we are prepared to concede. As a result, other institutions of our democracy are trying to steady the ship which is threatening to run aground. Obviously, what is needed is action by the captain himself and not a round of musical chairs disguised as a reshuffle of portfolios as we have just seen.

--- punjbalbir@gmail.com

***************************************

THE PIONEER

OPED

REFORM SYSTEM TO FIGHT TERROR

SHASHI SHEKHAR

While the battle against terror is fought both at the geopolitical level and the criminal investigation front, India can no longer afford to postpone systemic reforms. There is not much of a gap in the views of Home Minister P Chidambaram and the BJP's Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley. Can we hence see some bipartisan consensus emerge?

The relative calm on the mass terror front outside of the troubled frontier States and the Maoist-infested interior forests was shattered by last Wednesday's triple blasts in Mumbai. Much speculation is about on the perpetrators and the modus operandi. To a large measure the speculation is resting on the absence of a claim of responsibility so far.

Most analysts forget that a claim of responsibility is not particularly material when it comes to mass terror in India's major cities. One forgets the perversely selfless bombers of all incidents of mass terror between 2005 and 2007 when blast after blast occurred with no claims of responsibility. One also forgets the multiple dubious claims of responsibility that occurred before and after the blast at German Bakery in Pune. Lastly, one forgets that the only claim of responsibility to have surfaced after the November 26, 2008 attacks on Mumbai had no reference whatsoever to either Lashkar-e-Tayyeba or Ilyas Kashmiri's 313 Brigade.

The fact is apparent motives and overt claims of responsibility have been secondary to the conspiracies behind most incidents of mass terror in India. Labels used to describe outfits have been a matter of geopolitical convenience. Attributing attacks to outfits that overtly describe themselves as homegrown such as the Indian Mujahideen serves Governments on both sides of the border with their geopolitical détente. It allows room to lower the temperature on the geopolitical front while seeking recourse in criminal investigations, thus reducing the matter to a law and order issue.

On the other hand, attributing attacks to assorted non-state entities across the border serves another purpose. It gives room to the other Government to buck international pressure, shirk responsibility by claiming no control over them.

The reality of this orphaned nature of mass terror in India's major cities is that labels, prefixes, suffixes and academic distinctions vis-à-vis state sponsorship have all become inconsequential. The bitter but barely acknowledged truth is that there is a single continuum of mass terror spanning the radical few in India all the way to the well-entrenched elite in Pakistan.

That labels, prefixes and suffixes manifest to suit a given moment in the geopolitical game was amply clear before and after the Pune bombing. If exactly a week before the bombing you had the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba's Abdul Makki threatening Pune city by name, a week after the blast you had multiple claims of responsibility both direct and indirect from the 313 Brigade and a new outfit calling itself Lashkar-e-Tayyeba al-alami.

A similar pattern is playing out with last week's Mumbai bombings as well. First came the news from Pakistan that Ilyas Kashmiri, who was allegedly killed in a drone strike, might actually be alive and active. Next comes this story from Vicky Nanjappa, quoting unnamed sources, that a new outfit by the name Bullet 313 Brigade. This new outfit is described as a splinter group of the Indian Mujahideen. It must be noted that while the Government of India has steered clear of making direct links between the Indian Mujahideen and Al Qaeda's extended family of outfits, this is not the first time such a link is being purported to be made.

Writing in the Asia Times Online in the aftermath of the 26/11 attacks back in 2008, Syed Saleem Shahzad had reported that the Indian Mujahideen may have assisted Ilyas Kashmiri's outfit with local attacks in India. In that piece in December of 2008, Shahzad names the Indian Mujahideen's Abdul Subhan aka Tauqeer by name.

At a time like this one does miss Shahzad's reportage mixing fact, fiction with speculation, but nevertheless giving us what may be the only raw, first hand account from assorted terror and ISI sources across the border. As speculation on the 13/7 blasts hovers around Indian Mujahideen and the 313 Brigade, it must be brought to attention that the social media channels used by the Indian Mujahideen back in 2008 had become active again since around July 2010.

Of particular interest is one YouTube channel which had hosted a video on Tauqeer back in 2008. Not only has the channel been active until a couple of months ago, it also had a curious three- part video uploaded back in August of 2010. In that three-part video an Islamic camp held at Mumbra near Mumbai is referenced alongside language glorifying 26/11. The production of the videos is attributed to the same fictitious outfit — the Deccan Mujahideen, which was also referenced in the only claim of responsibility for 26/11. This brings back the question on what could have been done differently on such leads?

The botched Christmas day plane bombing at Detroit offered many lessons which were compiled by this columnist in The Pioneer back in January of 2010 with inputs on what the proposed NATGRID and the propose National Centre for Counter-Terrorism ought to do.

While the battle against terror is fought both at the geopolitical and the criminal investigation front, India can no longer afford to postpone systemic reforms. There is not much of a gap in the views of Union Minister for Home Affairs P Chidambaram and the BJP's Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley, but on the specifics of the kind of anti-terror law that would be most effective. Can we hence see some bipartisan consensus emerge on areas of common ground to address these urgently needed systemic reforms?

.***************************************

THE PIONEER

OPED

FAITH IN STATE'S ABILITY FURTHER ERODED

B RAMAN

The Government's credibility in relation to counter-terrorism will suffer further erosion after the Mumbai bombings. The stale argument about the difficulties faced by intelligence and security agencies in preventing terrorist attacks will not carry conviction with the people

The Union Government is clearly embarrassed and concerned over the Mumbai bombings of July 13. The embarrassment arises from the continuing deficiencies in our counter-terrorism capability even after the much vaunted improvements introduced after the 26/11 strikes.

The deficiencies relate to the preventive and surveillance capabilities of our intelligence agencies and the police. The concern should be over the likely negative political impact of the success of the terrorists in circumventing the security measures.

The Government's credibility in relation to counter-terrorism is likely to suffer further erosion — particularly in Mumbai, whose population has been the target of five instances of high casualty terrorist attacks — in 1993, 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2011. The argument about the difficulties faced by the intelligence and security agencies in preventing terrorist attacks will not carry conviction to the people. While they may accept one or two surprise attacks, they would find it difficult to accept repeated attacks not only in Mumbai but also in other cities.

Other cities — New York, Madrid and London — have had isolated mass casualty attacks but the police were able to ensure that there were no more attacks. It would be natural for the public to ask why this has not been possible for our security agencies.

Despite arrests made after past attacks, terrorist organisations still have at their disposal a seemingly unending stream of recruits who are willing to be trained and used to carry out attacks. A worrisome aspect is that our security agencies and the police have been unable to quantify the total number of trained terrorists still available to the organisations and neutralise them. They have also been unable to identify and block the sources of recruitment.

The attacks of July 13 — like those of 1993, 2003 and 2006 and unlike those of 2008 — were multi-targetted and well- orchestrated with a single modus operandi. They required good motivation and some training and not sophisticated expertise. The 2008 attacks were commando-style and multi-targetted with multiple modus operandi — use of explosives and hand-held weapons and hostage-taking. They required considerable training and sophistication. Hand-held weapons were used in addition to explosives in 1993 too.
No claim of responsibility has so far been made. There has been no electronic interception of suspect messages — electronic chatter as professionals call it — which might give a clue as to who might have been responsible. The security agencies are, therefore, groping in the dark in identifying the organisation responsible.

Coastal security and immigration controls have been tightened up after the 26/11 terrorist strikes. The possibility of outsiders sneaking in to carry out the attacks is somewhat low. The greater possibility is that the attacks were carried out by some people normally resident in India — maybe, Indian nationals or foreigners. The investigating agencies should keep an open mind and avoid jumping to conclusions.

The reports about a wired body and a separated head being found in one of the spots need to be carefully investigated. If these reports are correct, this would be a disturbing indicator of an act of suicide terrorism with possible foreign influence.

If these reports are ultimately ruled out as not correct, the only other possibility is of timed strikes, which might have been carried out either with mechanical (clocks or the alarm mechanism of a mobile telephone) or with chemical timers. The 1993 strikes were carried out by Dawood Ibrahim's men with chemical timers of US-origin obtained by them from the Inter-Services Intelligence.

The reported use of ammonium nitrate speaks of a lethargy in imposing checks on the sale of nitrogenous fertilisers despite this being repeatedly used as the explosive material by different terrorist groups in copy-cat acts in different countries of the world. Western countries have imposed checks on the sale of nitrogenous fertilisers. In Canada, sleeper cells were caught when they sought to buy nitrogenous fertilisers. It is not clear whether we have imposed similar checks.

Whether it is the Indian Mujahideen or any other organisation which is ultimately found to have been responsible, it wanted to disprove the official claims of having broken its back. This may not remain a one-city phenomenon. We must be prepared to prevent the danger of similar attacks in other cities.

We should not allow the latest blasts to disrupt the ongoing dialogue process with Pakistan unless there is concrete evidence to show that either the ISI or Pakistan-trained elements were involved.

--- The writer, a former senior officer of R&AW, is a strategic affairs commentator. ***************************************

THE PIONEER

OPED

DEFENCE, DEVELOPMENT AND NATIONAL SECURITY

IF INDIA IS TO HAVE AFFORDABLE AND SUSTAINABLE DEFENCE, THERE IS NO ESCAPE FROM DEFINING DEVELOPMENT AS SECURITY BOTH AT THE POLICY AND STRATEGY LEVELS, WRITES BHARTENDU KUMAR SINGH

Defence and development are supposed to be the twin facets of national security. The correlation is quite evident in contemporary international politics where security is being redefined with equal emphasis on defence and development. However, a similar correlation is yet to emerge in India. In this context, the constitution of the Naresh Chandra Committee on the review of national security is a welcome step. One of the major challenges before the committee would be to establish a harmonious linkage between the defence and development requirements in a national security doctrine and making them complimentary rather than competitive.

It is a well-known fact that the Indian debates on defence and development have been separate and compartmentalised without any attempt to link them. This great divide is further complicated by the total domination of the national security discourse by defence experts and the marginalisation of development economists. This approach has been aided and abetted by the political class that does not take developmental aspects of security seriously, allowing themselves to be guided by strategic and defence experts on these matters.

The end result is a one-sided and parochial perspective that is unfortunate for two reasons. First, it pushes the vital developmental aspects of national security under the carpet of relative insignificance. Rarely do we hear our security experts showing their concern over near incessant flooding in Assam and Bihar or for that matter the famine deaths in South India. It doesn't matter to most of them if India still has millions who go hungry every day or remain undernourished. When an Amartya Sen attempts to define these developmental issues as 'security concerns', there are no takers in the mainstream.

Second, there is too much emphasis on military matters. Often, the issues are emotionalised and metamorphosed into 'holy cows' where questioning their logic is deemed irrationality. Witness for example, the demand for raising the defence budget to three per cent of the GDP or expansion in the officer cadre of the armed forces. Both the demands are quite in contrast with the contemporary global trends.

Things would have been better had there been an institutional attempt to correlate defence and development issues.

Defence being a non-plan expenditure, the Planning Commission has largely kept out of defence matters and does not prepare the defence five year plans by itself. Similarly, the National Development Council also does not touch defence five year plans. Ironically, this arrangement does not make the armed forces happy since the defence five year plans suffer in terms of timely approval, resource commitment and plan execution. No wonder the services have recently demanded the constitution of a defence planning commission.

The finance commissions have also given a marginal treatment to defence issues and have suggested the progressive trimming of future defence budgets to curb fiscal and revenue deficits. The National Security Council Secretariat too, going by the contents of its sponsored annual publication on India's national security, perhaps treats defence and development as watertight compartments.

The annual report of the MoD too does not delve into the developmental aspects of security while describing the threat environment. Ditto for several Government-commissioned committees and commissions on defence reforms, which did not explore a possible correlation of defence and development in their reports. The only exception has been the VK Misra Committee on 'curbing of wasteful expenditure' that has been mindful about optimisation of the defence budget. The committee's recommendations, if implemented, can spare the Government from the burden of sparing additional resources hitherto meant for development.

In recent times, the Government has been talking of 'inclusive growth' in its policy statements. Accordingly, the focus, as the Prime Minister often says, should be on the marginalised sections, sectors and areas that are lagging behind. However, if the dream of 'inclusive growth' has to become a reality, it must be linked to defence policy of the country.

While the 13th Finance Commission has recommended the curbing of defence budget to 1.76 per cent of the GDP by 2014, more needs to be done so that resources are not a problem for either defence or development. For example, the diplomatic aspects of defence have to be accorded more weightage and the country should engage its neighbours in various forms of military diplomacy. Simultaneously, the services should be encouraged towards internal resource generation in non-sensitive areas.

If India is to have affordable and sustainable defence, there is no escape from defining 'development as security', both at a policy and strategy level. There is a need to broaden the concept of national security to one that encompasses defence and development as twin elements. Concurrently, strategies need to be identified that seek the progression of both without one compromising the other. Perhaps here lies the challenge for the Naresh Chandra Committee when it sits to draft a national security doctrine.

--- The views expressed in this article are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India. The writer is in the Indian Defence Accounts Service.

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE TIMES OF INDIA

COMMENT

AN EPIC ENDS

It's a pop culture sensation to rival the Beatles or Michael Jackson. As the eighth and final film of the Potter franchise - The Deathly Hallows Part 2 - opened across the world last week, millions of fans queued up - often tearfully. The international box-office take crossed $158 million by Friday, the first day of its opening in the US and India, shattering all previous records. J K Rowling's Potter series has been translated into 67 languages, selling over 450 million books globally.

So what does a young boy with a stick have that's captured the imagination of the world? Among other things, it's revived the culture of reading books that was thought to be dying, particularly among the young. The last four books in the series went on to become the fastest-selling in history. Written in flowingly simple language, children were instantly captivated by Harry and his friends, teachers, journeys, love-lives and struggles. Rowling's achievement is that she created an intricately detailed and complexly coherent world, a fully fleshed out parallel universe that amounts to a modern mythology for its millions of fans.

In doing so she mined the rich resources of British literature, adopting tones and shades from a range of references, Merlin and King Arthur, the grey fogs and Scottish tors of Sherlock Holmes, the poignancy of Victorian England captured by Charles Dickens with a young orphan growing up in a cruel world, the quizzical brilliance of Alice in Wonderland. From this fertile ground, Rowling moved Potter in and out of a very real multicultural Britain where Potter took trains from London's Kings Cross Station (albeit at a magic platform), made friends with the Indian-origin Parvati Patil, battled class discrimination and where contemporary political references, from terrorism to extraordinary rendition, waft between the lines.

Rowling's books successfully captured the joys of innocence, the pain of death and evil, the realisation that despite challenges, moral goodness can be protected. The mythology she created featured tongue-in-cheek Latin, magicians, headmasters, friends, pets, guardians and villains - based on universal emotions, not specific religion. This made Potter popular with adults too, cheered by Rowling's basic message of a moral universe and the possibility of magic in the workaday adult world. Let it be said then - the old mythologies, whether from the Mahabharata or the Bible, may no longer suffice to meet the needs of a generation that's growing up in the 21st century. The power of the Potter phenomenon is that it fills this gap, which once made the Vatican identify it - accurately - as a serious threat.

***************************************

THE TIMES OF INDIA

COMMENT

THE FIFTH ESTATE

When the state either fails its duties or oversteps its bounds, what recourse do the people have? The answer has been taking shape over the past few years - and the Mumbai blasts have made its outlines clearer. Within a couple of hours of the incident, a spreadsheet was afloat on Twitter with the phone numbers and Twitter handles of hundreds of people who were offering aid to victims and their families of every kind - from blood to car rides and even air tickets. The intersection of new media and social networking has been redefining our lifestyles for the past decade now. Mumbai has shown once again that when taken from the private sphere to the public, this shift towards a non-linear, all-at-once type of communication and processing of information can empower citizens to do what a lumbering, inefficient state often cannot.

The flip side of this paradigm shift - that it can also help citizens push back at an oppressive regime - has become equally clear. In the Middle East, social networking sites have played a crucial role in the Jasmine Revolution, and before it, the Iranian uprising. The evidence was there at Egypt's Tahrir Square when Hosni Mubarak faced the wrath of crowds numbering over 50,000, gathered via online communication to protest and eventually put an end to 30 years of dictatorship. In Syria, Facebook is being used to facilitate 'secret hospitals' where injured protesters are given medical attention by a band of doctors who are keeping their identities concealed for fear of arrest. The most significant aspect of this kind of information flow is that it bypasses the traditional middlemen who control conventional media altogether. It comes from and through the 'aam admi', and in the process, empowers the people. Immediate, immense and impactful, social networking websites may just be on the way to becoming the fifth estate.

***************************************

THE TIMES OF INDIA

TOP ARTICLE

THE WAY OF SATYAGRAHA

MADHU PURNIMA KISHWAR

Dear Baba Ramdev. Just some weeks ago, you were the envy of politicians, most of who ferry people and rely on bribes to bring them to attend their rallies. In contrast, you had a devoted following who supported your anti-corruption campaign by coming to Ramlila Maidan at their own cost and dipping into their wallets to support the movement. The numerous trusts and institutions you have set up are flush with funds. You have an army of dedicated cadres spread across the country who could play an important role as watchdogs of democracy, if guided properly. Yet, you messed it all up.

The bizarre drama you enacted to escape arrest by the Delhi Police - jumping down from a 14 ft high stage, expecting women to form a protective ring around you and finally fleeing the pandal disguised in women's clothing, leaving thousands of your followers to face the police wrath - was shocking. We are used to governments ordering such crackdowns. We are used to our police behaving like an army of invaders. But we were not prepared for undignified behaviour from a yoga guru, who is loved and revered by millions.

Worse still, your first response to this public humiliation was to announce that for your next round of agitation you will train a private militia to give a fitting response to police action. It must have thrilled the Maoists to hear you say that you finally understood why they have taken to the gun. But you backtracked from your statement the moment you were faced with the home minister's open threat and a hostile media reaction.

Your press conference in Delhi was no less disappointing. You explained you ran away in a woman's attire because you did not want to be hunted down like a wolf by the police. Firstly, there was not a chance that if you had allowed yourself to be arrested in full view of TV cameras, any physical harm would have come your way. In fact, you would have emerged a hero in the public eye. The quintessential quality of a satyagrahi is not his ability to stay without food for a certain number of days but to be absolutely fearless in the face of repression. Therefore, though yours may have been a peaceful agitation, it was far from being a satyagraha.

Till recently you were considered the advertisement for the miraculous power of yoga. But your behaviour on the night of June 6 was not a display of inner calm. Therefore, this is not the time for knee-jerk reactions, angry outbursts or forcing yourself on a reluctant Anna Hazare's bandwagon by announcing that you will join his fast on August 16, 2011. Not long ago, Team Hazare wooed you to join the anti-corruption movement because of your countrywide massive support base. Today, they see you as a liability.

This is time for serious introspection. Perhaps you should start by taking a course in the "Art of Living" from Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. Like you, he too was an integral part of the anti-corruption movement. But he was not agitated by his representatives not being included in the drafting committee for the Lokpal Bill.

To start with, you need to review the manner in which you practise and propagate yoga. Even the most elementary text or instructor, leave alone a guru, teaches us that yoga is not just physical exercise. It involves bringing body and mind in perfect union, with focus on calm breathing, the very manifestation of the life force in each of us. Pranayam is not the same as "breathing exercises" but an endeavour to gain total concentration and inner equilibrium by shutting out the noises and distractions of the outside world.

I admire the way you have succeeded in convincing millions to avoid unhealthy food and dependence on the allopathic system of medicines whose indiscriminate use does more harm than good. I also admire the way you lighted the spark in millions to stand up and fight corruption in governance. But your excessive demonisation of the allopathic system and exaggerated claims for yoga weaken your case. When you mix yoga with political or dietary sermons you take away from the seriousness of both and the lessons lose their intrinsic worth.

Moreover, bringing several thousand people together for a two-hour class transmitted on TV clearly shows that people are expected to follow your complicated yogasanas by watching giant video screens, doing what they can in their own way with very little monitoring. Yoga cannot be imparted like you teach PT to schoolchildren. Yoga needs close individual attention to ensure that the person being taught is able to obtain the correct posture and correct breathing. Otherwise, it is like any other exercise.

You have every right to nurture political ambitions or build a wealth-generating ayurvedic empire with your marketing genius. But if you wish to succeed in influencing or cleansing the politics of India, you have to understand that electoral politics requires a different genius altogether. You have to learn the art of teamwork and acknowledge your limitations in dealing with complex political and economic issues. It is naive to assume that you single-handedly have a cure for all political ills. The demand list you submitted to the government had some sensible but many absolutely untenable ideas. It also diverted attention away from your main demand. Most importantly, a yoga guru has to live up to that honorific title by acquiring inner calm. Otherwise, it is a negative advertisement for yoga.

The writer is professor, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi.

***************************************

THE TIMES OF INDIA

Q&A

'RAGGING IS A MENACE THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR DUCATIONAL SYSTEM'

Filmmaker Manish Gupta made the anti-ragging film Hostel. He met President Pratibha Patil recently to work out initiatives to stamp out bullying. Gupta speaks to Subhash K Jha :

Why make a film on ragging?

Coincidentally, this is the first question the president asked me when i met her at Rashtrapati Bhavan. I asked her to support the cause of anti-ragging by recommending Hostel for compulsory viewings across colleges in India. I expressed to her that ragging is a menace that has plagued our educational system for decades. And it continues unabated even as we speak. The root cause of this menace is ignorance amongst students - about the disastrous effects that extreme levels of ragging can have on a student's psyche, career and very life.

Were you inspired by real-life cases like the Aman Kachroo incident?

I was inspired by that case, the Indu Anto case and the cases of hundreds of other students who i interviewed personally during my research. The president has asked me to get together all these student victims of ragging and to give them a platform to pour their hearts out on Doordarshan. I have already got a few of them ready for this initiative. I am gathering the rest. The deceased Aman Kachroo's father Raj Kachroo is supporting me and the president whole-heartedly in this endeavour.

Do you think cinema has the power to prevent ragging?

Yes. Cinema is by far the most powerful medium of modern times. It influences the youth to a great extent. It influences the way they dress, the way they talk, think and act. A film can reach out to youth like nothing else can.

What do you think of the way ragging is shown on our campus films like 3 Idiots and Munna Bhai MBBS?

I was left dissatisfied at the way Ragging was portrayed in 3 Idiots - since it was made to look funny. There's nothing funny about being stripped naked in front of the whole college and being tortured. I personally would compare it to making rape or molestation look funny. Ragging is a grave issue staring India in the eye. Innumerable students have lost their lives to it. Many have been crippled for life. The statistics are shocking - 20 suicides and 15 deaths are reported every year with ragging as the root cause. There's nothing funny about that, at least to me.

Hostel wasn't an entertainer, why make a film that you know has limited appeal?

I make films that i want to make. I tell stories that i think need to be told to the world. I do not know what the audience wants. And no director in the world knows it either. That's why we have the same director making hits and flops alternately.

What is your take on commercial cinema today - do you think you can make a Gol Maal or Dabangg?

I can never make a senseless film like Dabangg. Despite the success of the film, i think it was inane, crass and senseless. I hated the film. I wanted to walk out at the interval itself. I will never make a film like that no matter what commercial gain or success it could get me. I am not in this industry for commercial gain. I am in this industry because my head constantly floats with stories that keep screaming at me from within to be let out.

What are you making next?

A film called Ardh Satya. It talks about the plight of policemen, why they are forced into corruption.

***************************************

THE TIMES OF INDIA

FREE TRADE, SAFE TRADE

One may be forgiven if, on reading the ceaseless G20 pronouncements in favour of freer trade, one infers that there is an almost universal agreement that trade matters, that freer trade is a policy to be pursued for public good.

Yet, the case needs to be made as the hostility to freeing trade, to further integration on the trade front into the world economy, is not negligible. It includes not merely the lobbyists for import-competing activities, but also citizens and groups swayed by the contrary assertions of a handful of professional economists, chief among them my former Columbia colleague Dani Rodrik and my current Columbia colleague Joe Stiglitz (both icons to the leftwing populists in India).

Rather than citing the scientific evidence that is now available in spades, anecdotes reflecting my experience with the deleterious consequences of closed or sheltered markets might be more useful.

For starters, go back to India before reforms including measures to reduce manufacturing protection began in 1991 following an external payments crisis. The shoddiness of much manufacturing production and of tradable services had become by then a constant irritant for millions. Economist Padma Desai, who had studied the working of India's Tariff Commission, has written how this commission remarked that "in an Indian car, everything makes a noise except the horn". Of course, the commission was blissfully unaware that it was its policy of granting automatic, what the economist Max Corden has called "made to measure" protection that was the cause of the predicament. Today, after almost 20 years of steady manufacturing-tariff reduction from an applied level of over 75% to about 12%, and removal of restrictions on entry by domestic private entrepreneurs, competition has made the car industry (and many others) so efficient that Tatas have produced the much-celebrated mini car, the Nano, and Indian cars are up to world standards. And finally, razor blades work so that you do not look like Johnny Depp despite a shave.

Then again, on a recent visit to Rio to give a dinner speech at a conference on capital flows by the IMF jointly with the government of Brazil, i encountered a throwback to the India of the 1980s, since Brazil is largely in the pre-reforms protectionist stage of India. We were put up at a top of the line hotel facing the beach. But i was getting tepid, not hot, water. I called for the plumber to fix it; he declared it fixed three times but it was not. Finally, two men arrived and fixed the water. But then they had messed up the flush which did not work anymore. Then came the climax: I could not tear open the soap from its package - an experience which was shared by others at the conference and extended to other items like sugar and artificial sweetener, as evidently protection had eliminated any incentive to produce better packaging. So i used my teeth. Alas, the soap stayed beyond my reach but i lost a tooth!

Was this 'necessary' infant industry protection? I do not think so. There are few instances of infants growing up unless they cease being mollycoddled. On the other hand, there are many instances of infants growing in sheltered environments turning into senile adults in diapers. Besides, there is real danger in protectionism. At best, it can prevent foreign competitors from coming into your market. But what about external markets? Sheltered industries will be unable to compete outside of their home markets!

A protectionist policy will reserve the Brazilian market for Brazilian industry, but it cannot help it survive in competition with efficient rivals when they compete in third markets. Has Brazil heard that one can be "penny wise and pound foolish"?

The writer is university professor, economics and law, at Columbia University.

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

HINDUSTAN TIMES

OUR TAKE

GIRD UP FOR A DIFFICULT RIDE

Inflation has been perilously close to 10% in each month of the first quarter of 2011-12, which flies in the face of government reassurances that it will come down. Food is 9.1% dearer in April-June 2011 after an eye-popping 20.9% climb in the same three months a year ago. Likewise, fuel trotted along at 12.7% over the quarter, again on the back of a 14% rise a year ago. These are gloomy numbers. What they mean is R100 fetched you a quarter less of provisions at the grocer and fuel at the pump in May this year than it did in May 2009, when the UPA returned to power. If these trends continue, R100 will be worth R60 in May 2014 as the UPA completes its second stint. The scary bit is the government can do precious little to check either food or fuel prices.

The hike in fuel prices at the end of June is yet to make its impact fully felt in headline inflation numbers. The bigger worry is the government has run through most of its budgeted fuel subsidy. If crude oil prices are to be passed on entirely to consumers, the inflationary pressure will be thrice as much as it is now. The alternative is a ballooning fuel subsidy bill. Anyway, food subsidies are likely to hit the roof once the government unveils its plan to dole out grain to three-quarters of the population at below market prices. The effects of government spending on such a scale are bound to show up in the price line through the fiscal deficit.

Factory prices — which lie at the core of an economy's inflationary expectations — clocked in at a 7.2% rise in the quarter, up from 6% in the same period of 2010. This is where policy-makers have some hope. A series of interest rate hikes that began in 2010 has taken some edge off consumption. But demand for goods and services is still strong enough for producers to be able to pass on increases in material costs. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to persist with its rate tightening cycle for much of this year till it feels it has managed to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. These efforts, however, need to be accompanied by some serious belt-tightening in the government. A remote prospect with a string of states going to the polls between 2011 and 2013. Heading towards the halfway point, the UPA needs a reality check on whether its ambitious welfare credentials could come unstuck at the price line.

***************************************

HINDUSTAN TIMES

SEARCH AND FORGET

Remember how about three years ago American technology writer Nicholas Carr fired a salvo against the internet through his article 'Is Google making us stupid?'? He bit the hand that fed him by arguing that the internet was "tinkering with [his] brain", as easy access to readily available information was rendering him indolent — not unlike the argument in the early 90s when the 'cable TV is making us lazy' line was doing the rounds and made many TV viewers use it as an excuse to go to the loo during commercial breaks while watching their favourite soap operas.

But Mr Carr's criticism of Google had its share of sceptics who understood that the more you remember, the more you forget. Some Luddites at Harvard University and Columbia University, however, are now back trying to convince us that Google is indeed fooling around with the way we use — or don't use — our minds. The search engine is causing mental atrophy among its dedicated users, they argue. In a paper titled 'Google effects on memory: Consequences of having information at our fingertips', these anti-Googlers deduce from four experiments that "when people expect to have future access to information, they have lower rates of recall of the information itself and enhanced recall instead for where to access it". In other words, they don't remember the info but remember where they can find the forgotten info. This not only gives a 2.0 kick to the 'ends don't justify the means' argument but also reminds us of Socrates' scepticism on the development of writing, or the public perception of Gutenberg's printing press when it was introduced, both of which were feared during their times to stimulate mass amnesia.

But should we be really bothered about such a kerfuffle over the internet allegedly making us dunderheads? In this day and age when everything from bank account numbers to credit card details to phone numbers are outsourced, what's the harm in 'outsourcing' (boring and factual) information to a website when it can be re-accessed in a jiffy? Just like those lifesaving yellow post-its on the fridge. Only if you can manage to find where you last kept the fridge.

[PS: We don't quite remember whether we used Google to write this editorial.]

***************************************

HINDUSTAN TIMES

OUTSOURCING TERROR

AJIT DOVAL

When a government fails to prevent, identify or neutralise terrorists, it indicates inefficiency and systemic inadequacy. But when terrorists refuse to own responsibility of an attack, the causes are much more complex and sinister. Terrorism is violence for a cause and terrorists always want the world to know about their existence, their cause(s) and the power they wield. So when they strike but don't seek publicity then they are working as a proxy.

There are strong indications that the July 13 blasts in Mumbai were a joint operation of the Indian Mujahideen (IM), certain underworld groups and external forces. If this is true, then the triple blasts were an early warning of some serious internal security threats that India may face in the near future.

The reasons behind this observation are as follows: After 26/11, the Students Islamic Movement of India (Simi) — IM is only a front to mislead the security agencies — has been aggressively organising themselves. Thanks to India's soft policies, security agencies are reluctant to initiate any action against anti-national elements unless and until a criminal case is possible.

The repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, 2002, (Pota) has emboldened Simi and put the law-enforcing agencies on the backfoot. In a meeting after the September 13, 2008, attacks in Delhi, the Simi leadership decided that the organisation should take advantage of the favourable environment to recruit people for jihad. They also decided to refrain from sporadic acts of terror till they strengthened themselves enough to make big strikes. While they strengthened their relations with Pakistan through the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the underworld, their role was by and large confined to assisting the Pakistan-based terrorists. Their (Simi/IM) new strengths, good ground knowledge and local contacts are worrying. India's inadequate laws, ill-equipped police force and the absence of political will to deal with the threat have only increased the problem.

Simi/IM is only a motley group of youth recruited and motivated by Pakistan for indigenisation of terror in India. It has negligible support among the Indian Muslims and all Muslim outfits have denounced their ideology and activities. Other than a vague slogan for jihad, it has no specific political demands or any cause. Its genesis lies in post 9/11 predicament of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), when the agency realised that in the changed global environment it needed a tactical shift in its strategy of using terrorism as an instrument of State policy.

To save themselves, they made Simi their front organisation. Using Dawood Ibrahim, CAM Bashir, a Simi leader from Mumbai, was called to Dubai in 2001 and the process of converting a radical Islamic youth organisation into a Pakistan-controlled terrorist outfit started. However, Simi's terrorist performance fell far short of Pakistan's expectations and many were accused of making money without doing much. But 26/11 forced Pakistan to resurrect it.

The ISI rated 26/11 as a successful covert operation but the exposure of its nationals made the overall cost unaffordable. So it re-doubled its efforts to re-organise Simi, hoping to increasingly use the group for direct actions rather than the support role they were playing. Last week's Mumbai attacks is a manifestation of this effort: Simi is being accessed, financed and controlled through locations in West Asia and the underworld is being primed to enhance its striking capabilities. The group is also emerging as a converging point for the ISI, crime syndicates, radicalised local youth to bleed India. If Pakistan and the radical forces supported by it succeed in their nefarious designs of indigenising terror, it could lead to violent communal conflicts, a long cherished objective of Pakistan. To thwart this, our response should be imaginative and well calibrated.

The next set of problems emanate from the fact that our counter-terrorist doctrines, structures and systems have evolved around the threats from foreign terrorists. Apprehending domestic problems, the government has always denied that there could be local participation. But this reality needs to be accepted so that the intelligence agencies can include domestic players in their coverage. This acceptance will also increase the role and responsibility of the district and local-level intelligence units of the states that are in a state of neglect. The National Intelligence Grid is also a welcome step and needs to be pursued on a war footing.

In the emerging scenario, the government must increase their contacts with the religious, social and civil society Muslim leaders and deny any space to foreign-inspired subversive elements. It is important that while taking firm actions against anti-national elements, the innocents are protected and collateral damages are avoided. Last but not the least, political parties should stop politicising terror since it can be catastrophic if we have to face its indigenous variant.

The Mumbai blasts are an early warning for a more serious long-term internal security threat. We have many things in our favour and the nation is capable of meeting the threats. But to do this, the political parties must start looking at the problem from a national — and not an electoral — perspective.

( Ajit Doval is former chief of the Intelligence Bureau and currently director, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi )

The views expressed by the author are personal

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

REVOLUTION NEXT

Across much of the country, agricultural growth rates have been deeply disappointing over the past 10 years. State-wise figures released last week by a national chamber of commerce reveal that most states are stuck with growth rates hovering around 2 or 3 per cent, although there have been some standout performers, particularly Gujarat and Maharashtra, which have delivered agri-growth of over 10 per cent annually. On Saturday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released another set of figures: for the foodgrain production in 2010-11. India is expected to produce 241 million tonnes of foodgrain, a record amount. But Dr Singh took the opportunity to warn the audience that high food prices, and sustained food inflation, cannot be controlled by such record harvests alone. Only increased productivity in the primary sector overall would deliver that. Indeed, he said that below-target agricultural growth in recent years was responsible for what he called "unacceptable levels of food price inflation".

This is, of course, the correct diagnosis of what might be argued is India's most immediate and urgent policy problem, food inflation. Yet, diagnosis is one thing, and working out the correct cure quite another. The first, most important step might well be to extend the benefits of the irrigation-driven green revolution that has remade farming in the north and the west of India to the east and those parts of the south that are still largely dependent on rain-fed agricultural techniques. The second step is to look at areas that have succeeded in stepping up their rural productivity, and working out how it is done. In semi-arid Gujarat, for example, local water conservation has been prioritised by building check dams and recharging rural water reservoirs. Soil health was examined, and newer techniques introduced. And, by many accounts, the upgrade of transport infrastructure was a crucial step, too, in that better access to markets allowed farmers to see a tangible return on their effort, which served to incentivise further investment and improvement.

The longer-term steps will have to be to allow for larger landholding, and a freer market for agricultural land. Preserving agriculture in aspic, it can now be seen, hurts the rural poor who aspire to better than what their parents had; and it also leads to spiralling food prices, which pinch absolutely everyone in India. The second generation of reforms, long delayed, must include plans of this sort for a second green revolution, or we will be condemned to a depressing future of poor agricultural performance.

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

MAKING THE CUT

Even on a normal day, you would wonder at how and why business — and as high-value a business as the diamond trade — had to be carried on in Mumbai's labyrinthine Opera House area. The bylanes packed with cars and the match-box offices were always seedy, in the sense of a foreboding of something sinister lurking around the next corner. Traders hang on, often ferociously, to sink-holes, even when state-of-the-art alternatives are designed and provided specifically for them, citing a million reasons. Now, after last Wednesday's terror attacks, the diamond traders may be moving, finally, to the Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC), which already houses the Bharat Diamond Bourse. The BKC is being "fortified" as reported in this newspaper on Sunday, and should soon host the bulk of the diamond trading community.

However, it's indeed sad when tragedy forces a re-think and action on what should have been the norm long ago. The work that Mumbai needs, in order to be salvaged as a city, is gigantic. The congested nightmare makes it doubly difficult for a city with no scope to expand, naturally, and geographically restricted to a long, narrow north-south strip. Therefore, to rescue Mumbai, the city has to be decongested on a war-footing. Following the BKC model, businesses need to be moved out of congested lanes and bylanes; slums have to be cleared and their occupants rehabilitated in affordable urban housing projects; transport and traffic infrastructure needs immediate investment and overhaul.

This is the briefest list possible of the things that need to be done to save Mumbai. Each of these comes with a million strings attached, and neither the city's local government nor the state government has been interested in lifting a finger to help Mumbai's residents and traders. On decongestion itself, approval for new building projects are getting stuck with the high-rise committee and the chief minister. Only a small fraction of the MMRDA-sanctioned affordable housing projects on Mumbai's peripheries has taken off. The solution to a badly run city cannot be its not being run at all. Mumbai needs to empty its underbelly fast. Let alone Mumbai's Shanghai dreams, even its status as India's financial capital is under threat.

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

SPEAK, MEMORY

We had sensed it: our memory becoming dodgy when we had to recall a name, a date, a cricket score, a political factoid that we were familiar with, and in all probability should have remembered. In the end, in absolute despair and capitulation, we googled for that elusive information. What was happening to our memory — was our Internet dependence playing with the nodes of our remembrances? Our quiet fears were followed by a raft of experiments and books on the many ways the Net tinkered with and then fundamentally changed the way our brain worked. The latest study, "Google Effects on Memory", by Columbia University's Betsy Sparrow and others, in Science, comes up with a different, encouraging, inference: with our reliance on computers and search engines, our memory isn't putrefying, we are just better at remembering where to access information than we are at remembering the information itself.

The Net, they say, is acting like a vast external storage space of memory. It is a collective source of information that we can tap into at will and, therefore, our brains have dispensed with the memory workout that they did with astonishing rigour and regularity earlier. In a crucial experiment, participants were asked to key in a list of trivia into the computer. Those who were told the information would be erased did a better job of remembering than those who were told the details would be stored in several folders. But the latter, significantly, remembered where exactly the information was stored.

Our cultural evolution has been marked by what and how much we have to remember. And a change in that has often been facilitated by technological advancements. Once, people memorised entire texts, aided by mnemonic codes like rhymes and metre. Printing liberated us from the pain of such rote-learning. Now the Internet is taking it further than we ever imagined, becoming an exterior memory palace for all of us.

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

LOOKING AT ASIA

C. RAJA MOHAN

As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in India on Monday for the second round of the bilateral strategic dialogue, there has been quibbling in both Delhi and Washington over a number of issues, including the fulfilment of their mutual nuclear commitments and defence cooperation.

While Delhi and Washington must iron out the many wrinkles in their bilateral relationship, Clinton's India visit will be judged by the ability of the two sides to develop a cooperative political agenda in the Af-Pak region and in East Asia, which are undergoing rapid geopolitical evolution.

Washington has made no secret of concerns on India's nuclear liability legislation that is seen by the US companies as imposing unbearable costs in building 10,000 MW of nuclear capacity that India has set aside for them.

Delhi is unhappy that the United States did not stop the Nuclear Suppliers Group from taking steps that could prevent future transfers of uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technologies for commercial application in India.

Sections of the US establishment continue to crib over the elimination of Boeing and Lockheed from the first round of the bidding for the sale of 126 medium-range multi-role combat aircraft to the Indian Air Force.

India, on the other hand, points to the fact that US companies have won orders for weapons systems worth $8 billion in the last few years. Delhi also suggests that American companies might be on the verge of winning other defence contracts worth billions of dollars.

Some in the US are asking what Washington has got for the political investments that the Bush and Obama administrations have made into the construction of a new partnership with India in recent years. Delhi, on the other hand, warns against letting accountants judge the Indo-US strategic partnership.

Neither India nor the United States would want to build the kind of transactional relationship that America and Pakistan have. Nor should they want to emulate the very cynical US-China alliance against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

What Delhi and Washington need is a partnership that has the political bandwidth to deal with their common threats in the Af-Pak region and the shared interests in East Asia and the waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

In the northwestern marches of the subcontinent, the American raid on Abbottabad and the execution of Osama bin Laden have brought into the open the deep contradictions between the United States and Pakistan in Afghanistan and the war on terror.

Washington thought it could buy Pakistan Army's support by defeating al-Qaeda and stabilising Afghanistan. Rawalpindi's interest has been different — to establish a pliable government in Kabul and secure strategic depth in Afghanistan through the Taliban and the Haqqani network, both of which have had enduring connections to al-Qaeda.

Despite its relentless drone attacks, Washington is nowhere near bending the Pakistan army to act against the terror groups that are fighting the United States. Delhi has far fewer leverages in pressing the Pakistan army to dismantle the anti-India terror infrastructure on its soil.

Yet, Washington and Delhi think they can manage the Pakistan problem on their own and don't want to be associated too closely with each other in Afghanistan. The prospects for the stabilisation of the Af-Pak region will remain bleak until there is a measure of strategic coordination between Delhi and Washington.

Despite a very different situation, the story is similar in East Asia where Clinton heads after completing her Indian sojourn in Chennai.

In the past, India vigorously objected to Sino-American partnership — during the Cold War and after. Delhi must now come to terms with the increasingly tense relationship between Washington and Beijing in Asia.

A rising China, unsurprisingly, would like to diminish the US influence on its Asian periphery. In the face of an increasingly assertive China, Beijing's neighbours are turning to Washington for protection.

During her last visit to Southeast Asia a year ago, Clinton proclaimed "America's return to Asia" after a prolonged preoccupation with the Middle East, and extended support to China's smaller neighbours in their maritime territorial disputes with Beijing. Since then matters have taken a turn for the worse in the waters of Asia. As in the Af-Pak region, so in East Asia, the old geopolitical assumptions are no longer sustainable.

Through the last six decades, the US relations with China and Pakistan have been major sources of Delhi's wariness about Washington. The United States had little time for Indian concerns as it built instrumental partnerships with Beijing and Rawalpindi.

Today, the US ties with both China and Pakistan have entered an uncertain phase as the ties between Delhi and Washington have improved.

More broadly, India's worldview since Independence has been shaped by an enduring distrust of the West and the suspicion that the United States is opposed to India's territorial integrity and her aspirations for a larger role in the world.

India's problem today is not an unfettered Western dominance, but the increasing manifestations of American weakness in the face of a rising China and the resulting strategic ambiguities.

For an United States that must now shed some of its global security burdens, an emerging India is a valuable partner in managing the impending chaos in the Af-Pak region and promote political stability and economic prosperity in East Asia.

For nearly six decades, India and the United States struggled to limit the damage to their bilateral relations from their divergent strategic trajectories. Today, the challenge for Clinton and her Indian hosts is to build on the convergence of their interests in Asia — in the continent's southwestern and eastern parts.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi
express@expressindia.com

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

CHESS AND THE CITY

JAIDEEP UNUDURTI

Great cities are like chessboards. Complex, fast-moving, full of traps, unexpected threats and opportunities. Sometimes a king is brought to bay, sometimes a pawn becomes a queen. Sometimes you are one of the players, sometimes you are just being played.

Chennai has made a strong bid to host the world chess championship between Viswanathan Anand and Boris Gelfand. The match, consisting of 12 games, will be held sometime in April or May next year. This is the first time such a match will be held in India. If Anand successfully retains his crown, then the symbolism of chess returning to India, the cradle of the game, will be apt. Anand himself is a product of Madras chess, honing his talent over countless blitz games at the Tal Chess Club in Alwarpet.

In all probability, chess herself was born in a city, all those thousands of years ago. Only the invention of leisure could have led to chess. Agricultural surpluses and large walls to keep enemies at bay — all that was left was a way to while away the hours before the next harvest season.

The French intellectual Guy Debord coined the theory of "psychogeography". According to Debord, psychogeography was the "study of the precise laws and specific effects of the geographical environment, consciously organised or not, on the emotions and behaviour of individuals". Are there such psychogeographical tendencies in chess?

Hyderabad, for instance, in cricket has produced a series of "stylish" batsmen. Similarly, in chess there was the Hyderabad trio of Mohammed Hassan, Hussain Ali and Turab Ali, all known for their positional play, imbued with the leisurely languor of chess players who came from an ancient tradition of princely patronage.

From the '40s to the '90s, the Soviet Union bestrode the world of chess like a colossus. To outsiders, the Soviet machine looked a vast faceless monolith. Yet, to insiders, there were plenty of local variations. Gelfand, in an interview, talked about Minsk, his hometown, which was known for challenging theoretical duels; Riga, the capital of Latvia, where they played dashing, sacrificial chess; and the Caucasus where there was less emphasis on theory and more on subtleties and intuition.

Leafing through the index of The Mammoth Book of the World's Greatest Chess Games is a trawl through the strata of chess history. Modern chess really begins in the 1850s with the first international tournament held in London in 1851. Working your way through the index, it is possible to observe the ebbs and flows of history. For example, in the beginning, the names of St Petersburg, Berlin, London predominate. The tsar was an influential patron of chess and in fact the first "Grandmaster" title was awarded by Tsar Nicolas II.

After the turn of the century, the rise of America is clearly seen with frequent entries of New York. The city was a chess mecca in the 1920s, the kinetic nature of the metropolis also having a distinct stamp on the game. Bobby Fischer is probably the most famous product of the New York style.

The Soviets, starting in the '20s, had taken to chess with Communist thoroughness and soon the results began to show. The 1945 radio match between the US and the USSR was a clear sign of the torch being passed, with the Soviets wiping out the Americans. From now on, game entries increasingly refer, first to Moscow and Leningrad and then to more far-flung outposts, Kirovabad, Tbilisi, Chelyabinsk.

From the late '90s, a new entry starts turning up — Elista. Elista happens to be a wind-swept city on the Kalmyk steppes, hardly a chess metropolis one would think. The explanation is that Kirsan Illyumanzhinov, the current head of FIDE, was the president of Kalmykia and this led to many tournaments being held there, culminating in the world championship match between Vaselin Topalov and Vladimir Kramnik in 2006. In one of the games, Kramnik defended a long ending. This would have been merely a footnote in chess history, but in 2010 when Anand was defending his crown against Topalov in Sofia, the Bulgarian repeatedly played into that ending, which acquired notoriety as the "Elista ending".

Much more common is naming chess openings after cities. The Slav Defence, for instance, has a variation called Meran, named after the Italian town where a tournament was held in the '20s. Unfortunately, most of the major advances in chess theory have already been made, and it is unlikely that there will be a Chennai gambit or defence being introduced in next year's match.

Then there are cities or places that derive their identity from chess. The tiny seaside village of Wijk aan Zee in Holland is famous for hosting an international tournament since the '20s. It is the chess equivalent of Wimbledon. Naturally, the chess is held during the off-season, in January, with biting gales sweeping in from the North Sea. The economic life revolves around the giant Hoogoven steel mills, now acquired by Tata. There are a series of tournaments catering to players of all strengths, from the world's best to enthusiastic amateurs. It is the kind of town where you walk into a bar, and the bartender asks, "Did you win or lose today?"

No doubt, centuries from now chessplayers will stumble across "Anand-Gelfand, Chennai, 2012" in some database. Playing a game of chess, therefore, is a certain kind of immortality.

Unudurti is a Hyderabad-based writer
express@expressindia.com

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

HOW RUDE REALITY SET IN AT THAGLA

INDER MALHOTRA

It took the government leadership some time to respond to the objections raised by Lieutenant-General Umrao Singh, General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the Siliguri-based XXXIII Corps to its still-secret directive to the army to evict the Chinese that had intruded well south of the McMahon Line at Thagla ridge ('Grave Mistakes after Galwan', IE, July 4). The reason was that Nehru was away at the Commonwealth Prime Ministers' Conference in London and the more directly concerned defence minister Krishna Menon was at the UN General Assembly. This clearly indicated that they did not expect any big bust-up with China. At the same time, both were anxious that their government must be seen to be acting against the expanding Chinese encroachments.

So it was on October 3 that Menon — in consultation with the chief of the army staff, General P. N. Thapar, and Lt Gen L. P. Sen, GOC-in-C of the Eastern Army Command — decided that Umrao Singh had to be replaced. Ironically, Thapar had earlier shared Umrao's misgiving that the Indian army was in no position to take on the Chinese with their superiority in numbers, equipment and logistics. But in the third week of September, after Menon's instructions by phone from New York, the defence ministry had overruled the army chief, in a note signed by H.C. Sarin, then joint secretary in the ministry, later defence secretary and always a confidant of Menon.

Who was to succeed Umrao Singh was the next question. Thapar recommended Lt Gen "Sam" Manekshaw, and received a mouthful from an enraged defence minister. Strangely, the army chief seemed not to be aware that Sam was Menon's bete noire. Menon's own choice was Lt Gen B.M. Kaul, his favourite, then serving as the Chief of General Staff (CGS) at the army headquarters. Another source of Kaul's immense influence was he was distantly related to the prime minister. As the future trajectory of tragic events cruelly showed, Kaul's choice as the battlefield commander was a mistake of monumental proportions — for the country as well as for himself. It is worth adding that Kaul's appointment in 1959 as the CGS by superseding some of his seniors was one of the reasons for the row between Menon and Gen K.S. Thimayya, arguably India's most popular army chief so far.

This said, let me not be unfair to Kaul and ignore his many qualities. He was an excellent, indeed outstanding, military bureaucrat. He was also a man of phenomenal energy, drive and dynamism, exceeded only by his ambition. No matter how difficult the task assigned to him, his response was "can do". Actually, he tended to "overdo" it. Unfortunately, he had hardly any combat experience and this turned out to be a fatal flaw.

Characteristically, Kaul left to assume his new responsibility the very next day after making sure that this landmark in his career would be reported adequately in both The Times of India and The Statesman. The Times' story was under the byline of G. K. Reddy (though Kaul had personally tipped off Prem Bhatia, then the paper's resident editor and later Delhi editor of Indian Express). I wrote the item in the Statesman on the basis of information conveyed by a trusted aide of Kaul.

Both Reddy and I made one mistake. We reported that Kaul had been appointed commander of the "task force" formed to evict the Chinese from Thagla. The reality was different, complex and somewhat phony. As the ministry of defence (MoD) clarified, Kaul was to head the newly raised IV Corps based at Tezpur. In fact, Kaul's Corps was a phantom. No new troops except for the Corps headquarters staff were sent to it. He had to make do with the meagre forces already deployed. At the same time, Umrao Singh was not sacked. He continued to command the Siliguri Corps but his jurisdiction was confined to Sikkim, Nagaland and the East Pakistan Front. The whole of North East Frontier Agency (NEFA), now Arunachal Pradesh, threatened by the Chinese, was made Kaul's exclusive domain.

True to his style, on his very first day at Tezpur, Kaul flew to Lumpu and then trekked to Namkachu valley where Brigadier John Dalvi's 7 Infantry Brigade faced the more numerous Chinese occupying the commanding heights. No general officer had ever before visited Namkachu. Despite his gung-ho personality, Kaul was shaken by what he saw of the terrain and the enemy. After this brush with harsh reality, he sent from the spot a string of top priority signals that had a "sobering, not to mention dismaying, impact on the army and the (defence) ministry", in the words of Maj Gen D.K. Palit, then Director of Military Operations at the Army Headquarters in the rank of a brigadier.

However, such was Kaul's make-up that despite having discerned the grave vulnerability of Indian positions, he ended his dispatch reassuringly, telling New Delhi that he would take the first step to implement its directive before October 10. Ironically, it was exactly on that day that the Chinese delivered a far more shattering blow.

On October 9, in keeping with his promise to initiate some action, Kaul sent a platoon-strong patrol to take control of Tseng Jong, a small knoll somewhat to the northwest of the Chinese positions that they hadn't occupied. Kaul calculated that once the Indian patrol got there, the knoll could be used as a "jumping point". In launching this operation, Kaul had brushed aside warnings by Brigadier Dalvi and the divisional commander in the area, Maj Gen Niranjan Prasad. Surprisingly, the Chinese did nothing to stop the Indian patrol. But the platoon reported late in the evening that the Chinese were "massing a whole battalion" against it, and he therefore expected an attack at dawn.

Nothing happened at first light on October 10. An hour later, however, nearly 800 Chinese soldiers, supported by mortar fire, threw an assault and wiped out the Indian patrol at Tse Jong. According to Prasad, Kaul was "too stunned for an hour or so to speak coherently". All he said later was that Delhi would have to do "a complete rethink".

The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THE MAXIMUM THREAT

DILIP BOBB

As Mumbai's Boswell, Suketu Mehta captured the dark side of Mumbai as effectively as he did the wonder and iconic status that define the metropolis. The alluring mistress of hope, the devil of despair, the maximum city in every which way, whether providing nightmares or building dreams. It also detailed why and how Mumbai can become an addiction. Above all, it defined what makes a Mumbaikar. It is a peculiar definition, but it manages to say a lot, much like one speaks of someone being a New Yorker. Wednesday's terror strike has brought Mumbaikars into tragic focus once again — their legendary "resilience" and "spirit" starting to invite anger rather than pride from those who face the reality of being the favoured target for terrorists.

The reasons for that targeting go beyond the cliché of being "the financial centre". No other city in India has that aura, and sense of destiny, that Mumbai commands. Like New York, with which it is often compared, Mumbai stands for something unique: a city that energises those who live in it, and instills a desire to excel. Such cities have become "command centres in the borderless domain of the new global economy," as an American architect recently wrote. These are cities that cause prominent writers like Mehta, Vikram Chandra (Sacred Games, Love and Longing in Bombay) and now Aravind Adiga (Last Man in Tower) to use them as a backdrop to their novels, because of their iconic status, of the kind of people who inhabit them, and the dynamics of its neighbourhoods. Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire could only have been filmed in Mumbai to bring alive the grime and the glamour, the ambition and drive, and the dreams that it encourages its inhabitants to dream. It is that spirit which invites the terrorist's wrath, the obsessive desire to see it broken. Mumbai is more a symbol of emerging India and its growing economic clout than any other city in India, and that's what keeps the fidayeen plotting their twisted conspiracies while preparing the ammonium nitrate.

There are other reasons why Mumbai commands a special status, and not just in India. A recent meeting of architects, historians, social scientists and town planners in Paris concluded that to qualify as a "great" city or "world city", it must exert a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education and entertainment. Only a handful of cities met that criteria, and Mumbai is possibly the only Indian city that does. Technology may be a Bangalore monopoly, and the media perhaps more inclined to Delhi, the centre of political power, but in every other way, Mumbai makes the grade. Its near-legendary corporate czars are now global players, their business impact being felt in every continent. In fact, the most profitable technology company in India (TCS) is based in Mumbai, not Bangalore. In the global entertainment arena, Bollywood is now as well known as Hollywood. Canadian author Neil Frazer writes: "Global cities are the sites for global finance and other specialised service firms, the sites of key innovations, including innovations in services, and they are markets for the products and innovations produced." No other innovation in service matches the global wonder of Mumbai's unique dabba system.

There are others. Drive in from the airport, and you now cross the Worli Sea Link, a technical and engineering accomplishment that is a lesson in innovation. Take a detour past Antilla, the richest private residence in the world. It is humungous and distorted and vulgar but it's also a scale of ambition that only Mumbai would demand. Innovation and ambition are as much part of the Mumbai character as the underworld and the slums. Then there is the iconography: the original gateway to India, it now has a permanent signature of that status, the Gateway of India and the ever-elegant arc of Marine Drive flirting with the Arabian Sea. All along, the crumbling art deco mansions, sea salt rubbed into their wounds, express their own peculiar symbol of defiance — you can hurt us but never bring us down. There is history hidden behind those decaying walls. Crawford Market is the bustling area in a semi-dilapidated 1869 building where many Mumbaikars buy fruit, vegetables and meat. None of them know that the bas-relief work on the building exterior was done by Lockwood Kipling, Rudyard's father.

Modern history has made it what it is today. Almost everyone in Mumbai arrived here as an immigrant over the last century, giving the city a vibrancy and cosmopolitanism that is different from other cities. Nowhere else do you find that feeling of constant movement and vibrancy: only New York has that effect. Like New York, it has a very active citizenry whose pride of place and belonging sets it apart. It's the one place where you can make a mark and also make a difference. The actor Judy Dench once said about New York: "The city has a great capacity to transform people." Mumbai has done that to so many, the count is lost.

There's a greater urgency required to ensure that Mumbai retains its special status and sense of destiny. As nation-states wane under the transforming power of globalisation, cities are growing in power, filling in the spaces being left vacant. Mumbai can play that role if politicians, bureaucrats and security agencies allow it to. There is a terrible irony emerging, a city where people find their freedoms — of choice, of opinions, of celebrations, of living — are finding those very freedoms under severe threat, and not just from the terrorists. Mumbai must survive — and thrive — if India is to survive and thrive.

dilip.bobb@expressindia.com

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

A LIFE OF POLITICS, PARTITION AND POETRY

UMA VASUDEV

Sheila Gujral has died with a quiet dignity that marked her whole life as a wife, mother and writer.

She was one of those rare beings who walked along the steps of greatness with her husband, Inder Kumar Gujral, with a sensitive, restrained public face and her own creative inputs as he strode the political scene eventually to become prime minister. So low-key was her public assertion that even I, who got to know her brother-in-law, the famous painter and sculptor, Satish Gujral from 1948 onwards, and later his wife Kiran, herself an artist, as also the whole family, never realised that along with the public face of responsibility and devotion which made the senior Gujrals an ideal couple, there was also this very quiet, withdrawn, sensitive wife, Sheila.

It was she who spelt out the pain and agony of Partition — and her involvement in social commitments bolstered the image of her husband at every step of his ascension from president of the New Delhi Municipal Committee to Union minister in Indira Gandhi's cabinet to becoming prime minister himself. That she wrote in Hindi brought her in direct contact with the post-Partition, beleaguered Punjabis of that era and later, of course, gave her a natural entry into the more cosmopolitan Hindi literary coterie of the capital.

Born in Lahore, Sheila got her master's degree in economics, as well as a diploma in journalism from Punjab University, two subjects which gave her the requisite background for a life grounded in the challenge faced by independent India in these very two areas and by her husband in the positions of power that he held.

But instead of prose, in which she might have encapsulated the problems and given hard solutions and advice, Sheila Gujral chose poetry as her preferred medium of expression. The result is a poem that seems to capture the sensitivity with which she harboured an ambition to let her husband fulfill these desires — or rather, aims. She was 87 years old when she died, a life fulfilled, with two sons, Vishal and Naresh, the latter also in politics like his father, Inder Kumar Gujral.

If there was still in her heart a nostalgic regret which she thought her husband would fulfil for her, it came out in a beautifully sensitive poem :

When I'm no longer there

Would you with your hands remove

All the hurt of the poor

Which I could not

When I am no longer there

With soft smiles and tenderness

Will you remove all their pain

and torment

Which I could not.

When I am no longer there

Decorate your home

With all of nature's beauty

Which I could not

Vasudev is a Delhi-based writer

***************************************

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

MEDICINE'S ETERNAL VIGILANCE

SIDDHARTHA MUKHERJEE

Three recent events highlight the extraordinary task that lies ahead for cancer prevention. First: in late May, a WHO panel added cellphones to a list of things that are "possibly carcinogenic" — a category that also includes pickles and coffee. Second: in mid-June, formaldehyde (used in plywood manufacturing and embalming) was finally classified as a carcinogen. And third: in late June, the US issued newer and more graphic warning labels for cigarette packages. These include deliberately disturbing images of a patient with mouth cancer and of a man with tobacco smoke coming out of a tracheotomy stoma.

What connects these events? Together, they serve to remind us of three of the most potent challenges that cancer-control agencies face today. Indeed, it is essential to recognise these events as representing a progression: each corresponds to a crucial stage in the process of patrolling the borderlands of cancer. Effective cancer control depends on successful action at each of these complex stages.

The first challenge is scientific. It concerns the complexity of identifying new carcinogens, and the need for consistent standards for doing so. Take the purported link between cellphone radiation and brain cancer. This link is based largely on the so-called Interphone study. In Interphone, men and women with a variant of brain cancer were asked to recall their level of exposure to cellphone radiation. But pivotal uncertainties remain. Trials like Interphone depend on the ability of subjects to recall their prior exposures, which can be inconsistent. When some subjects' actual phone use was logged, there were broad discrepancies between actual and reported usage.

There are other difficulties. Despite a drastic increase in cellphone usage over the past decades, there has been no significant change in glioma cancer rates. And finally, the kind of radiation emitted by cellphones — unlike the radiation emitted by X-rays or nuclear bombs — cannot directly damage DNA. If cellphone radiation is causing cancer, it is doing so through a mechanism that defies our current understanding of carcinogenesis. The cellphone case is a reminder of how difficult it is to identify a new carcinogen — and how important it therefore is to have standards to make such classifications possible.

Discrepancies in standards for classifying carcinogens have led to confusion in the public realm. In contrast to the WHO, many agencies, including the National Cancer Institute, remain sceptical about the link between phone radiation and cancer. In part, the problem is semantic: the WHO's definition of "possibly carcinogenic" is much looser.

The second challenge facing cancer control agencies is political. The formaldehyde case illustrates this. Unlike phone radiation, formaldehyde has a well-established mechanism to cause cancer: it is a reactive chemical that can directly attack DNA. Sophisticated trials showed that men and women exposed to formaldehyde — morticians, for instance — had higher rates of leukaemia than unexposed people.

But some of these studies were performed three decades ago. Why have 30 years elapsed? In part, because of active lobbying by various industries, in particular, plywood manufacturers, who have tried to thwart this classification.

Identifying a carcinogen, in short, isn't sufficient. Cancer-control agencies need to bolster political support, and neutralise lobbying interests.

The third challenge for the cancer community is social. The new labels on cigarette packages are a case in point. The human trials that established that tobacco smoke is a carcinogen were initially performed in the mid-1950s (some even earlier). First, the tobacco industry mounted an aggressive campaign to discredit the data; it took a decade of innovative strategies to alter the trajectory of smoking behaviour in America. But young men and women are smoking again: consumption in certain regions has been rising. Evidently, advertising the risk to the public is not enough: cancer-control agencies need to reinvent strategies. Old warning labels generate habitual responses, so new, more disturbing labels are needed to invigorate attention.

Patrolling the world for carcinogens is a complex task. Scientific challenges morph into political challenges that lead to social challenges. If reducing the incidence of cancer is a national goal, then it is essential to recognise the many-dimensional nature of countering carcinogens.

Mukherjee is assistant professor of medicine at Columbia University and author of "The Emperor of All Maladies"

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

WHAT'S A TREND?

SHOMBIT SENGUPTA

Being a reverse wave, a trend stuns people, creates discomfort in society. It forms as a distinct character in the backdrop of history, and mainly emerges from human manifestations of being anti-establishment. This multi-directional catalyst is related to economic power that takes life forward or back. Social rebels want to be so different that people stop in their tracks and contemplate on their activity.

An individual can be impacted by the trend soberly, subtly or exuberantly. It depends on the individual.

Different types of trends emerge at different times. The advent of denim jeans was a trend that cut across society; the poor, rich, middle class, executives, farm hands, old and aged, almost everybody went through the trend. In business, it's important to understand the latent trend. Having an inkling of the future allows you to direct your business on the right growth path. Although technology is creating a futuristic trend, which people have not been associated with before, a trend takes the future as a hook to climb from, even as it is anchored in the tremendous cycles of history.

A brand at the core of the trend absorbs and anticipates the future, it drives the latent trend. Let's see how Benetton did just that to ride global business with $2,751 million in 2010, 15% operating profit margin. Benetton case study: Luciano Benetton transformed his company when he changed his brand from Benetton to United Colors of Benetton. The brand thrives on expletives and stands for anti-racism. His extreme provocations have shock value that shakes up the shackles that bind civilised society. But the point he raises is a serious social cause. Being a Caucasian, he alerts fellow Europeans to the racism ingrained in their minds. He's proved that curses and abuses can be over-stretched to defend a social cause.

Till the 1970s, racism went unbridled. Even poverty-stricken Caucasian countries like Italy, Spain and Portugal were considered inferior; the French would arrogantly dub Portuguese to be good only as concierge of condominiums. African or Arab communities hated the 'high and mighty white attitude', which oftentimes led to violence. In this atmosphere, fashion designer Benetton had the calibre, vision and guts to use abusive visual communication with anti-racism as his platform.

Fashion's origins can be traced to royalty that distinguished itself from the proletariat; it has no obvious connect to racism. By whipping up collages of different cultures, Benetton turned the sophisticated world of fashion upside down. Not only did his anti-racism pitch disturb the Establishment, Benetton fought for social justice. His political and humanitarian rights causes won him appreciation from liberals, intellectuals and the young. He plastered Western cities with daring, controversial visuals that attracted people of all societies. These people became his buyers. His platform became large, intense and inimitable.

United Colors of Benetton is always linked to colours, in clothing and in uniting races of different skin colours. His messages never abuse anyone, his images expose the totally taboo. Just imagine an outsize billboard in a prime metro area exhibiting innumerable male and female sex organs of multiple colours and races, with nothing else but a tiny United Colors of Benetton sign-off. You may publicly denounce such a picture, but wouldn't you be curious to openly see the United Colors of sex for your personal hedonism? This outrageous picture created havoc in society.

Benetton billboards communicate people's subliminal desire to see the unmentionable such as horses, symbolical white and dark, making love. This sexual fantasy with the opposite colour is hidden, especially the coloured person's revenge over white supremacy through sex. Benetton proves that a desirable object can break racism. He spoke out against incest in societies too, and iconised his clothes to reflect the wearer's liberal personality.

Fashion codes change every year, but the professional success of United Colors of Benetton is its single message magnified to overwhelming proportions. For over a quarter century, it has not bored people. The media mileage his communication gets is incredible. Just a few confrontational billboards in a country, and the media automatically starts different kinds of debate. Millions of people, shocked, disturbed or supportive of the pictures, watch these TV debates at prime time. No company can hope for such mileage even if they invest huge sums of money. Protests and turbulence have frequently knocked his door. But the cacophonous attentions his unrelenting salvos receive establish that people love to be provoked. People enjoy public exhibition of their unstated desires; they are keen to openly indulge in controversy to keep life dynamic.

A trend is a non-stop wave that has an undercurrent. It is extremely difficult to swim against the undercurrent. Trying to do so can be very laborious, and can drown you. You could ignore companies like Benetton as not being relevant for your business but you do so at your peril because you totally miss the consumer's deeper social insight, not her subjective or individualistic views. Consequently, you may fail to analyse and understand the consumers' fantasies that other industry domains are addressing. By not riding the trend, your business may fall into the undercurrent. Your organisation has to create a wave to connect to that ocean of consumers over whom you will never have physical control.

Today's trends such as hip hop, iPod, Rbk, Niketown, Fcuk, Smart car, Swatch, homosexual marriage, Bose sound, Starbucks, health and fitness are cords that link to consumers, they are not in a vacuum. If managements like Benetton have intellectually translated the world of business to a socio-philosophical mode to create the latent trend in business, so can you. Connecting to these trends will help you generate the latent trend, that better cook of current and past trends.

Shombit Sengupta is an international creative business strategy consultant to top managements. Reach him at www.shiningconsulting.com

***************************************

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

SEX BAROMETER FOR A PRESIDENT?
SHOMBIT SENGUPTA

Is it a Hollywood movie or a real case? Did former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) sexually assault a hotel chambermaid as alleged? DSK has denied all seven charges against him. If proved, he'll spend 74 years and three months behind bars. Let's examine the shrieking can of worms let loose in this hot plot blending sex, money, politics, reputation, women, crime and outrage. Even the dress code of chambermaids has changed from skirts to trousers in New York's Sofitel Hotel. Supposedly the mechanism of taking off trousers makes women less vulnerable to unwanted sexual advances.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, among the most powerful decision makers in disbursing international monetary funds, even to bail out countries in extreme recessionary crises, was arrested by New York police on May 14, 2011. How did they find him? He'd called his hotel to enquire after the mobile phone he left behind. The police heard, got into action, rushed to the aircraft about to take flight to Paris, entered the first class cabin and got kudos from a section of society for 'retrieving a criminal from his escape bid.' Paraded hand-cuffed before TV cameras in court, DSK was packed off to maximum security prison Rikers Island where die-hard criminals serve tough sentences. He was put on suicide watch.

Simultaneously, pandemonium broke loose internationally. The press ran amuck, detailing every move, speculating reasons, consequences, dissecting and bisecting DSK's character, unearthing his alleged romps with different country prostitutes. Women's groups found much to add in the cause of justice for rape victims. France was in utter shock, and severely criticised America's judicial system. Strauss-Kahn was tipped to contest and win the next presidential election as a Socialist party candidate. The French can't believe that on a woman's protest, and sans any proof, American police are empowered to take the ferocious action of relegating a responsible, high-profile public official to solitary confinement, destroying his reputation, snatching away his job, even destabilising another country's election process.

There's also been gambling on whether DSK's French political opponents orchestrated this. Tabloid website Le Post said the first person to tweet the arrest, even before the arrest, was Jonathan Pinet, a French right-wing UMP party activist. Pinet then said he got the news from his friend who works at the hotel. Le Post says the first person to retweet Pinet was Arnaud Dassier, who'd previously been implicated in revealing anti-DSK material. And the first website to mention the news, before New York Post broke the story, was 24heuresactu, a right-wing blog.

"I don't believe for a single second the accusations of sexual assault by my husband," said the ex-IMF chief's third wife, Anne Sinclair who's more famous than this second husband she married in 1991. I was an avid fan of her brilliant TV show called 7/7 in the 1980s. Her 500+ interviews included presidents Francois Mitterrand, Mikhail Gorbachev and Bill Clinton, and stars Yves Montand and Madonna. A multi-million heiress, her grandfather was Picasso's art dealer, she rushed to New York bringing "brains, beauty & cash to save her man," reported website whatonsanya. She hired the best lawyers, put up $6 million in bail, $50,000 a month to rent a New York apartment to live in house-arrest with her husband who had to wear a non-removeable electronic security tag on his ankle. She also paid $200,000 a month for round-the-clock armed guards as per mandatory rules to prevent his escape. From the beginning DSK had stated it was consensual sex, that he'd seduced the chambermaid. Women have criticised her tolerance, but Anne Sinclair is determined to prove that her husband is not a rapist.

Then suddenly the tables turned. In a stunning court hearing on July 1, 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn was freed from house arrest, his security tag removed, his bail money returned, but not his passport as the case is due for hearing on July 18, 2011. What happened? Prosecutors admit to 'serious credibility issues' with his 32-year-old Guinean immigrant accuser. The UK's Daily Mail reported, "Two official sources said the unnamed woman, within a day of her encounter with Strauss-Kahn, spoke telephonically to an imprisoned alleged drug dealer who is accused of possessing 400lb of marijuana. In the recorded conversation she reportedly discussed possible benefits of pursuing charges against Strauss-Kahn." One paper even said she was a sex worker. It appears the maid's bank account in two years had cash deposits of over £62,000, and her five phones ran up hundreds of dollars bills every month, although she revealed possessing one phone only.

Prosecutors said the alleged victim falsified her 2004 application for asylum in USA. She said she lied that Guinean soldiers gang-raped her, tortured her husband who died in jail. She also admitted tax fraud, and lied about "a variety of additional topics concerning her history, background, present circumstances and personal relationships." She also changed her original police statement that "she fled to an area of the main hallway of the hotel's 28th floor, waited until she observed the defendant leave suite 2806 and the 28th floor by entering an elevator. Now she says that after the alleged incident she proceeded to clean a nearby room, then returned to suite 2806, began to clean that suite before she reported the incident to her supervisor." She also allegedly owned up to falsely claiming a friend's child as her own to get a higher tax refund.

Is this Hollywood film displaying American bigness becoming like a Bollywood entertainment fantasy? In the frightening movie Jaws, the shark at sea was only a robot shot in a big pond at Universal Studios, a background screen created the skyline. In this matter, who will the judge believe on July 18? DSK's maintaining consensual sex or the maid claiming rape? Will this judgment showcase America's dream of becoming emperor of global politics? Never having enjoyed a real emperor's power like Napoleon or Hitler the dictator had, perhaps in the name of freedom Americans love to impose a democratic imperial or dictatorial character while flying the American flag of liberty.

Shombit Sengupta is an international creative business strategy consultant to top managements. Reach him at www.shiningconsulting.com

***************************************

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

ZAHEER KHAN: A PIONEER IN THE ART OF BOWLING

BORIA MAJUMDAR

Zaheer Khan versus Andrew Strauss, a battle that will set the tone for the rest of the series, was the most talked about duel at India's first press conference in England on July 14. Khan has done it against Strauss in the past, four dismissals in 2007 leading India to a series win in the process. He has done it against the South African skipper Graeme Smith as well.

His away going delivery taking the left hander's edge or the ball coming in to the left hander and getting his leg plum in front of the stumps, Khan has a penchant for picking up the opposing captain's wicket and giving India a psychological edge. His return into the mix after the West Indies series means India has its leader back, one who is at the top of his game in the Test match arena.

Khan has a swagger about him. A little tuft of hair sticking out at the back of his head—his trademark—he looks the leader India has come to depend on over the years. Just when the chips are down does Khan come up with something special to get India back into the match. South Africa 200 for 1 and going strong at the Eden Gardens in February 2010. An amazing Khan spell and the Proteas were all out for 262 giving India the opportunity to push for a series leveler. With Ishant Sharma back in form, the Khan-Sharma combination is expected to be as lethal as Anderson and Tremlett at Lords.

More than anything, Zaheer Khan's presence in the middle is a comforting feeling. It tells you that a wicket is never too far away and that one bad session is not necessarily the end for India. Khan can always marshal a comeback and his trademark celebration with both hands up in the air and a carnal scream to go with it is enough to inspire his bowling mates to put in that extra effort. He knows the virtues of being patient, the importance of being sincere all through a Test match and the art of being persistent. He won't back down in front of aggression and won't concede an inch if it comes to intensity. He is just the perfect person for a high intensity series that will perhaps decide the fight for the mantle of the world's best Test side.

A well educated and soft spoken person, Khan had come to Mumbai to become an engineer. Cricket, for him, happened by accident. And it is this well educated background that stands him in good stead at times of adversity. He knows how difficult it is to get to the top and remembers his way up there well. It also means he has a level head on his shoulders and never takes things for granted. And for the team the presence of their champion bowler means the others can rally round him and bowl more freely, without letting the pressure of the series get to them.

Though his average per wicket is more than Srinath's, there's little doubt that Khan is India's best fast bowling option after Kapil Dev. It can even be said that he is the best old ball bowler India has ever had. It is his ability to reverse swing the ball that has won many a match for India in the last three years and has given the attack the much needed extra teeth.

The only worry with Khan is his fitness. Here again, however, his level-headedness comes to the fore. Knowing fully well that he isn't the fittest around, he does not bowl all balls with the same intensity or effort. Only a couple of effort balls per over, Khan has perfected the art of keeping himself fresh for longish spells if need be.

Zaheer Khan was the man of the series when India beat England in a closely contested Test series in 2007. With both sides having improved over the last four years, India will once again depend on a Khan special for an encore in 2011. In fact, it can be suggested that an Indian win will much depend on Khan and his ability to dent the English top order, especially the Strauss-Cook combination. The anticipation, with each passing day, is growing and as Harsha Bhogle has correctly called it "it is surely going to be a series worth the wait."

The writer is a sports historian

***************************************

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: ANOTHER YEAR OF WASTE
ROGER COHEN

Almost a year ago, president Obama declared to the United Nations General Assembly: "When we come back here next year, we can have an agreement that will lead to a new member of the United Nations—an independent sovereign state of Palestine, living in peace with Israel."

It's been a wasted year.

Just about everywhere in the Middle East there has been movement—stirring, remarkable, uneven—as the region breaks old chains of despotism and seeks its slice of the modern world. But Palestinians and Israelis remain stuck in their sterile and competitive narratives of victimhood, determined, it seems, to ensure past rancour defeats promise.

It's been a year of terrible waste.

There is no alternative to resolving this most agonising of conflicts but neither party ever quite gets to that realisation. After 63 years the balance of power is overwhelmingly skewed in Israel's favour and the one country that might redress that balance—the United States—is unwilling to because its politics allow no room for that. In general when power is so skewed between two parties peace is elusive.

Obama, when he returns to the UN in a few weeks, will face the consequences of a wasted year.

As usual, there's plenty of blame to spread around. Obama had one of his worst moments last September when he brought the Israeli and Palestinian leaders to the White House to announce renewed talks, only for them to unravel as Israel refused to extend a moratorium on settlement expansion. Now, when the United States says to the Palestinians—"Trust us, come to the table, we can deliver"—they scoff.

It's been a year of squandered opportunity.

The Palestinians, with ample cause for frustration at the sterile maneuvering of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have lost the sense of direction that had been growing for two years under the direction of prime minister Salam Fayyad. They seem to have opted for an act of political theatre that will get them nowhere and place them in confrontation with the United States.

Fayyad's state building in the West Bank—schools and roads and institutions and security forces—led the World Bank to declare last year that the Palestinian Authority was ready for a state "at any point in the near future." But Fayyad never got recognition from Israel for his achievements: Terrorist violence is down 96% in the West Bank in the past five years.

Israel snubbed a viable partner—criminal waste.

So the Palestinian Authority's president, Mahmoud Abbas, became tempted by the notion of going to the UN in September to seek recognition for a Palestinian state. It's not an idea Fayyad likes because he's a pragmatist interested in results not symbolism. The results of this approach, if adopted, will be negative.

The US will veto the Palestinian demand in the Security Council. It is possible major European allies will vote with the Palestinians and a 14-1 vote would be embarrassing for Israel. A vote in the General Assembly would go overwhelmingly in the Palestinians' favour. But this would not get Palestine anywhere.

It would not gain membership in the United Nations. US funding, to the tune of about $550 million a year, would be cut off because Congress would be incensed. The Israelis, angered, might also cut off tax revenues. The occupation would continue, along with its humiliations.

Abbas also decided to sign a reconciliation agreement with Hamas that was not thought through. It has since proved stillborn because Hamas will not accept Abbas's insistence that Fayyad remain as prime minister. Instead, Abbas should have negotiated a truce pending elections in a year that would allow Palestinians to decide who should represent them. An empty reconciliation with Hamas only gave ammunition to Netanyahu, incensed Congress and embarrassed Fayyad.

The waste is so crushing that the Quartet, meeting this week in Washington, was unable even to agree on a statement. The Palestinians liked the mention of a peace "based on the 1967 lines" in Obama's recent Middle East speech. Netanyahu loathed the speech but liked the mention of "Israel as a Jewish state and the homeland for the Jewish people." Between the 1967 lines dear to the Palestinians and the Jewish state obsession of Netanyahu, finding a suitable form of words to encourage talks proved beyond the Quartet.

The Israeli insistence on up-front recognition from the Palestinians of Israel as a "Jewish state" is absurd—a powerful indication of growing Israeli insecurities, isolation and intolerance. There was no such insistence a decade ago.

States get recognised, not their nature, and the Palestine Liberation Organization has recognised Israel's right to "exist in peace and security." Palestinians are not going to elaborate on their recognition ahead of negotiations, while Netanyahu refuses to elaborate on what his vague formulation of "two states for two peoples" might actually mean.

The Jewish state issue is a cherry-on-the-cake issue for the last stage of any talks. So pushing it to the front of the agenda is just Netanyahu's way of putting delaying tactics ahead of strategic thinking once again.

The waste is staggering and the looming train wreck appalling.

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

SUDAN TO LAUNCH NEW CURRENCY

The Central Bank of Sudan, on July 16, announced that it would launch a new currency this month to avoid risks following the issue of currency of the new Republic of South Sudan. "The replacement of the old currency will take two to three months," said Mohamed Khair Al-Zubair, Governor of the Bank of Sudan, at a press conference. He said the bank was ready to negotiate with the government of South Sudan to reach an agreement that guarantees restoration of the old currency.

The Republic of South Sudan said it would launch its new currency next Monday, a move criticised by the Sudanese Minister of Finance Ali Mahmoud who said there was an agreement to continue working with the Sudanese pound for six months. — Xinhua

***************************************

THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

NO. 1 MUST ASSERT ITSELF

That India would win the Test series in West Indies wasn't in much doubt — given the relative strengths of the sides and the nature of the five-day format, which allows these strengths to play out — but the manner of victory left a little to be desired. To be fair to M.S. Dhoni's team, it lacked its first choice openers, its best batsman, and its bowling leader, all of whom have contributed immensely to India's rise to the top of Test cricket. And in the normal course of things, any series win, especially one abroad, is an event to be celebrated. But considering the thinness of the West Indies batting and the bowler-friendly character of at least two of the three pitches played on, the 1-0 result was less than satisfying. An old vulnerability, not pressing more intensely for victory, showed itself again. India has achieved many creditable successes in becoming the No.1 team — the most worthy of them being the cultivation of the ability to bounce back from adversity — but it hasn't always made full use of the opportunities that presented themselves. There has been a tendency at times to ease up after gaining a position of advantage. It is true that India hasn't lost a series since August 2008 but the best Test side in the world is judged against higher standards.

India will have to lift its level of play against England. The return of Virender Sehwag (two weeks into the tour), Gautam Gambhir, Sachin Tendulkar, and Zaheer Khan will aid this endeavour. Not only are they world-class cricketers, they are also first-rate influences in the dressing room. Rahul Dravid and V.V.S. Laxman, who again proved their value in the Caribbean, have the benefit of entering a tour having spent time in the middle against challenging bowling. It's difficult even for batsmen as skilled as them to find rhythm after a break — something they have had to contend with, not being part of the limited-overs side. The two significant gains of the Caribbean tour were Suresh Raina and Ishant Sharma. Raina's Test career seemed in danger after his troubles in South Africa. But he worked on his problem against the short ball, and was consequently able to shine in West Indies. Another test, against the moving ball, awaits him in England. Ishant seems to have discovered the harmony, in mind and body, that deserted him after such a promising beginning. He led the bowling superbly, operating with hostility and penetration. On his and Zaheer's shoulders rests the responsibility of subjugating England's top order. But each of Dhoni's men will have to step up — the captain himself will have to shed the strange defensiveness that sometimes hinders him — if India is to repeat its series-winning performance of 2007.

***************************************

THE HINDU

THE LONG ROAD AHEAD

It was exactly 31 years ago that India emerged as a nation with an independent launch capability. On that occasion, the Indian Space Research Organisation's SLV-3 rocket, which stood just 23 metres high, succeeded in putting a 35-kg Rohini satellite into orbit. Since then, the country's spaceport at the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota has seen 32 more launches of satellite-carrying rockets, six of which ended in failure. On Friday, a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which was nearly twice the length and 18 times heavier than the SLV-3, took a 1,400-kg communications satellite into space. With 18 successful launches to its credit, the PSLV has matured into a versatile and reliable launcher. Although this is the first time the rocket carried a communications satellite, the PSLV had flawlessly executed similar missions with the country's first dedicated meteorological satellite, Kalpana-1, and subsequently the Chandrayaan-1 lunar probe. However, the PSLV is a less powerful rocket than its trouble-prone sibling, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), which has seen three of its seven flights turn into failure. The latter, equipped with a cryogenic engine, is capable of carrying communication satellites that are about one tonne heavier.

For communication satellites, size matters. The bigger and heavier the satellite, the more communication capacity it is able to pack and the more economical the cost of such capacity works out to be. Globally such satellites have grown bulkier over the years and these days can often be in the six-tonne class. Launching small communication satellites on the PSLV is not an attractive proposition. Therefore, as a first step, it is essential that problems with the GSLV, which is expected to fly again next year with the indigenous cryogenic stage, are sorted out expeditiously. But even that rocket will not be able to launch a three-tonne satellite like the GSAT-8 that was put into orbit by Europe's Ariane 5 in May 2011. So ISRO also needs to get its next-generation launcher, the GSLV Mark-III, which will be able to carry four-tonne communication satellites, operational as soon as possible. That may be easier said than done. Both the giant solid-propellant booster for the rocket and its liquid-propellant core stage were successfully tested last year. But its new cryogenic engine and stage must also be similarly tested and proven flight-worthy. Development of a semi-cryogenic engine, which will run on liquid oxygen and kerosene, has started; this engine will be used for a more powerful launch vehicle. ISRO's launch vehicle programme has come a long way but faces many difficult challenges in the years ahead.

***************************************

THE HINDU

ECLECTIC ARCHITECTURE, EXQUISITE FEATURES

T.S. SUBRAMANIAN

The Sree Padmanabhaswamy temple in Thiruvananthapuram, which is in the news with the discovery of treasures in its vaults, is an imaginative amalgam of the Dravidian and Kerala architectural styles. If the structure of the sanctum sanctorum, the Dhwaja Sthambham and the Chuttambalam characterise the Kerala style, the influence of the neighbouring Tamil country is visible elsewhere — the wall of the sanctum of the Sree Krishna shrine has Tamil Vattezhuthu inscriptions dating to 1375 CE; the gopuram over the eastern entrance has hundreds of stucco figures, reflecting the Vijayanagara style of architecture; the stunning sculptures in the Kulasekhara mandapam and on the pillars of the rectangular prakara are by sculptors of the Madurai Nayaka period and in the vimana over the sanctum. It is a daring, dramatic fusion. This befits a temple where the presiding deity, Vishnu, reclines on a snake, in a rare depiction.

While no definitive age can be ascribed to the temple, popular belief is that Divakara Muni, a Tulu Brahmin hermit, built it centuries ago.

The Tamil Vaishnavite saint Nammalvar, of the Ninth century CE, sang 11 verses in praise of the "Annalaar [Lord] of Ananthapuram, who is reclining on a snake." This establishes that the temple came into prominence before the Ninth century CE. While Nammalvar's references to "Annalar" are unambiguous, a reference in Silappadhikaram , the Tamil epic of the Second century CE, has brought forth different interpretations. Some scholars argue that "Adaga maadathu ari thuyil amarthon" denotes the reclining Vishnu at "adaga maadam," which is the present-day Thiruvananthapuram. Mr. S. Padmanabhan, founder of the Kanyakumari Historical and Cultural Research Centre in Nagercoil, concurs. Other scholars say "adaga maadam" merely means golden temple.

The temple complex, situated on seven acres, is enclosed by fort walls. In the sanctum is "sayanamurthy," stretched out on the serpent-couch Anantha. From Vishnu's navel rises a lotus that has Brahma seated on it. Vishnu's dangling right hand touches a Siva linga . The reclining image and the serpent consist of a wooden core covered with lime plaster and katu-sarkara , which is a mix of herbs. As many as 12,008 salagramams , sacred stones found on the bed of the Gantaki river in Nepal, are embedded in the idol. Abhishekam (libations poured on the image of the deity) is not performed on it so as to keep the katu-sarkara intact.

Similarity with Tiruvattar temple

Dr. R. Nagaswamy, a former Director of the Tamil Nadu Archaeology Department, and Mr. Padmanabhan, point to the striking similarity between this temple and the Adikesava Perumal temple at Tiruvattar in Kanyakumari district, in terms of plan and internal arrangement. Both are dedicated to Vishnu in the seshasayee pose. Tiruvattar is the older of the two. According to Mr. Padmanabhan, the Tiruvattar temple is also called Adhi Ananthaswamy temple.

The Tiruvattar temple does not have anything like the Padmanabhaswamy temple's Kulasekhara mandapam with sculptures belonging to the late Nayaka period, said Dr. Nagaswamy.

Mr. M.G. Sasibhooshan, cultural historian and archaeologist, said the Tiruvattar temple has beautiful granite sculptures and Deepa Lakshmis in the Sivelipura and in the Balipeedam mandapam . It has two small gopurams at the eastern and western entrance points, built in typical Kerala style. While the length of the reclining Vishnu in Tiruvattar is 18 feet, the length of the Ananthasayee at Thiruvananthapuram is 16 feet, he said.

Mr. H. Sarkar, in An Architectural Survey of the Temples of Kerala (Archaeological Survey of India, 1978), says that Padmanabhaswamy was the tutelary deity of the Ay kings (whose ancestry goes back to the Tamil Sangam age) and that the temples in Thiruvananthapuram and Tiruvattar are monuments of the Ay dynasty. Both the Venad and Travancore kings, who ruled the southern part of what is now Kerala, patronised these temples. In fact, Tiruvattar fell under the suzerainty of the Travancore kingdom, which, at one stage, ruled a stretch from Kollam in present-day Kerala to Kanyakumari and the Tamiraparani river belt in what is now Tamil Nadu.

There is a row of three doors to the sanctum of the Padmanabhaswamy temple that allow one to see the deity's face and the five-headed serpent, the lotus flower with Brahma seated on it and the feet, all separately.

In front of the sanctum is the "Ottakkal (single stone) mandapam ," a massive platform fashioned out of a block of granite, which has pillars with carvings. "The ceiling is pure artistry in itself and is made of well-seasoned wood, abounding in carvings," says Aswathi Thirunal Gouri Lakshmi Bayi, a member of the Travancore royal family, in her book Sree Padmanabha Swamy Temple (Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan, 1995).

The credit for erecting the platform goes to the King Anizhom Thirunal Marthanda Varma, the maker of modern Travancore, during whose reign (1729-1758 CE) the temple got its present shape. Writes Gouri Lakshmi Bayi: "The work on this platform was started and completed under the direct supervision of Sree Anizhom Thirunal Marthanda Varma in 1731 AD. It took the tireless efforts of a huge task force comprising men, horses and elephants for 42 days to bring the stone from Thirumala, a hill in the city, to the temple." This huge block of granite was somehow transported across the Karamana river.The temple has shrines dedicated to Ganesha, Narasimha, Krishna, Kshetrapalan and Sastha. The walls of the main sanctum and those of Krishna and Kshetrapalan have a wealth of murals, mostly of Krishna Leela scenes.

The sculptures in the Kulasekhara mandapam and hundreds of sculptures of Deepa Lakshmis and carvings on the pillars of the covered prakara are by sculptors of the late Nayaka period (18th century) of Madurai. The 100-foot-tall gopuram is dated to the 16th century CE of the Vijayanagara period. The life-size sculptures in the Kulasekhara mandapam are of Nataraja performing ananda tandava and urthva thandava , the highly ornamented Rathi and Manmatha, gypsies, the lion-headed Vyalas, Anusuya with a ladle, musical pillars and so on. All these have an uncanny resemblance to the sculptures at the Meenakshi temple in Madurai, the Nellaippar temple in Tirunelveli and the Vishnu temple at Krishnapuram near Tirunelveli.

Gouri Lakshmi Bayi calls the Kulasekhara mandapam "an extravaganza in stone" and a "living wonder of the granite sculptures, a lavish expression of pure poetry in stone." Karthika Thirunal Rama Varma succeeded Anizhom Thirunal in 1758 CE. Karthika Thirunal built the mandapam to commemorate his receiving the title of Kulasekhara Perumal. Sculptors from the Tamil-speaking areas (such as present-day Tirunelveli and Tuticorin districts) of old Travancore, and Mootha Panikkar Thottathu Ashari of what is now Kerala, contributed to the work.

The prakara , Sivelipura in Malayalam, has hundreds of Deepa Lakshmi sculptures on the granite pillars, and superb carvings of Hanuman, warriors, danseuses, couples in erotic poses, male practitioners of martial arts, and so on. The granite slabs that form the ceiling have snakes, fish and turtles carved on them. Anizhom Thirunal was the architect of the Sivelipura . The artisans were from Tamil country.

Which style?

Mr. Sarkar, in his book, does not shy away from raising the question whether the Tiruvattar temple and the Padmanabhaswamy temple were built in Dravida or Dravida-Kerala style of architecture. "The question that remains to be answered is whether they were built in Dravida or Dravida-Kerala style," he says. "Frankly speaking, it is difficult to settle the issue," he adds. "But if the present form is any indication, then both were built in the indigenous Kerala style..."

Gouri Lakshmi Bayi's assessment is this: "The typical Kerala features are underlined by the structure of the Sreekovil (sanctum sanctorum), the Chuttambalam, the Belikkal area, the Dhwaja Sthambham and the Chuttu Vilakku or encircling lamps and the Thirumuttam (sacred open courtyards) while the Dravidian style is projected by the huge gopuram (tower) abounding with figures and projections.

The Tamil character is only natural as south Travancore had close cultural affinity with nearby Tamil Nadu regions. Moreover, many parts of southern Tamil Nadu incuding Tirunelveli were very often under the rule of the Travancore kings. Marthanda Varma himself had grown up in south Travancore and was well exposed to the Tamil influence. As such, the blending of the Tamil culture in the temple construction was unavoidable and inevitable…Since this temple too came directly under the temple tradition set down by the Namboodiri Brahmins of Kerala, it was able to retain its basic originality even though the Dravidian ideas and influences inspired its structural patterns…"

The Sree Padmanabhaswamy temple is indeed an eclectic edifice.

The Sree Padmanabhaswamy temple in Thiruvananthapuram is a blend of Dravidian and Kerala styles.

***************************************

THE HINDU

AADHAAR: ON A PLATFORM OF MYTHS

R. RAMAKUMAR

Two countries. Two pet projects of the respective Prime Ministers. Unmistakable parallels in the discourse. "The case for ID cards is a case not about liberty, but about the modern world ," wrote Tony Blair in November 2006, as he was mobilising support for his Identity Cards Bill, 2004. "Aadhaar…is symbolic of the new and modern India ," said Manmohan Singh in September 2010, as he distributed the first Aadhaar number in Nandurbar. "What we are trying to do with identity cards is make use of the modern technology ," said Mr. Blair. "Aadhaar project would use today's latest and modern technology ," said Dr. Singh. The similarities are endless.

Mr. Blair's celebrated push for identity cards ended in a political disaster for Labour. The British people resisted the project for over five years. Finally, the Cameron government scrapped the Identity Cards Act in 2010, thus abolishing identity cards and plans for a National Identity Register. On the other hand, India is enthusiastically pushing the Aadhaar, or unique identity (UID), project. The UID project has been integrated with the Home Ministry's National Population Register (NPR). The "National Identification Authority of India Bill" has been tabled in Parliament. Globally, observers of identity policies are watching if India learns anything from the "modern" world.

The experience with identity cards in the United Kingdom tells us that Mr. Blair's marketing of the scheme was from a platform of myths. First, he stated that enrolment for cards would be "voluntary". Second, he argued that the card would reduce leakages from the National Health System and other entitlement programmes; David Blunkett even called it not an "identity card," but an "entitlement card." Third, Mr. Blair argued that the card would protect citizens from "terrorism" and "identity fraud." For this, the biometric technology was projected as infallible.

All these claims were questioned by scholarly and public opinion. A meticulous report from the London School of Economics examined each claim and rejected them (see "High-cost, High-risk," Frontline , August 14, 2009). This report argued that the government was making the card compulsory across such a wide range of schemes that it would, de facto , become compulsory. It also argued that the card would not end identity fraud in entitlement schemes. The reason: biometrics was not a reliable method of de-duplication.

The Indian discourse around Aadhaar is remarkably similar. Almost identical arguments are forwarded in support of the project to provide a population of over one billion people with UID numbers. I argue that Aadhaar, just as its failed counterpart in the U.K., is promoted from a platform of myths. Here, there is space for three big myths only.

Myth 1: Aadhaar number is not mandatory.

This is wrong; Aadhaar has stealthily been made mandatory. Aadhaar is explicitly linked to the preparation of the NPR. The Census of India website notes that "data collected in the NPR will be subjected to de-duplication by the UIDAI [Unique Identification Authority of India]. After de-duplication, the UIDAI will issue a UID Number. This UID Number will be part of the NPR and the NPR Cards will bear this UID Number."

The NPR is the creation of an amendment in 2003 to the Citizenship Act of 1955. As per Rule 3(3) in the Citizenship Rules of 2003, information on every citizen in the National Register of Indian Citizens should compulsorily have his/her "National Identity Number." Again, Rule 7(3) states that "it shall be the responsibility of every Citizen to register once with the Local Registrar of Citizen Registration and to provide correct individual particulars." Still further, Rule 17 states that "any violation of provisions of rules 5, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 14 shall be punishable with fine which may extend to one thousand rupees."

The conclusion is simple: Aadhaar has been made compulsory, even before passing the Bill concerned in Parliament. Under the project's guise, the State is coercing individuals to part with personal information; this coercion comes with a threat of punishment.

Myth 2: Aadhaar is just like the social security number (SSN) in the United States.

There is a world of difference between the SSN and Aadhaar. The SSN was introduced in the U.S. in 1936 to facilitate provision of social security benefits. A defining feature of SSN is that it is circumscribed by the Privacy Act of 1974. This Act states that "it shall be unlawful for any…government agency to deny to any individual any right, benefit, or privilege provided by law because of such individual's refusal to disclose his social security account number." Further, federal agencies have to provide notice to, and obtain consent from, individuals before disclosing their SSNs to third parties.

The SSN was never conceived as an identity document. However, in the 2000s, SSN began to be used widely for proving one's identity at different delivery/access points. As a result, SSNs of individuals were exposed to a wide array of private players, which identity thieves used to access bank accounts, credit accounts, utilities records and other sources of personal information. In 2006, the Government Accountability Office noted that "over a 1-year period, nearly 10 million people — or 4.6 per cent of the adult U.S. population — discovered that they were victims of some form of identity theft, translating into estimated losses exceeding $50 billion."

Following public outcry, the President appointed a Task Force on Identity Theft in 2007. Acting on its report, the President notified a plan: "Combating Identity Theft: A Strategic Plan." This plan directed all government offices to "eliminate unnecessary uses of SSNs" and reduction and, where possible, elimination of the need to use SSN to identify individuals. It's quite the contrary in India. According to Nandan Nilekani, Aadhaar number would become "ubiquitous"; he has even advised people to "tattoo it somewhere," lest they forget it!

Myth 3: Identity theft can be eliminated using biometrics.

There is consensus among scientists and legal experts regarding the limitations of biometrics in proving identity. First, no accurate information exists on whether the errors of matching fingerprints are negligible or non-existent. A small percentage of users would always be either falsely matched or not matched at all against the database.

Second, errors of matching would stand significantly amplified in countries like India. A report from 4G Identity Solutions , contracted by UIDAI for supply of biometric devices, notes that:

"It is estimated that approximately five per cent of any population has unreadable fingerprints, either due to scars or aging or illegible prints. In the Indian environment, experience has shown that the failure to enrol is as high as 15 per cent due to the prevalence of a huge population dependent on manual labour ."

A 15 per cent failure rate would mean the exclusion of over 200 million people. If fingerprint readers are installed at Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) work sites and ration shops, and employment or purchases made contingent on correct authentication, about 200 million persons would remain permanently excluded from accessing such schemes.

The report of the UIDAI's "Biometrics Standards Committee" actually accepts these concerns as real. Its report notes that "fingerprint quality, the most important variable for determining de-duplication accuracy, has not been studied in depth in the Indian context." However, this critical limitation of the technology has not prevented the government from leaping into the dark with this project, one whose cost would exceed Rs.50,000 crore.

It is said that the greatest enemy of truth is not the lie, but the myth. A democratic government should not undertake a project of the magnitude of Aadhaar from a platform of myths. The lesson from the U.K. experience is that myths perpetrated by governments can be exposed through consistent public campaigns. India direly needs a mass campaign that would expose the myths behind the Aadhaar project.

( R. Ramakumar is Associate Professor with the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai .)

The Aadhaar project, just as its failed counterpart in the U.K., stands on a platform of myths. India needs a mass campaign to expose these myths.

***************************************

THE HINDU

RECONCILIATION AND NATION BUILDING: THE MANDELA WAY

AHMED KATHRADA

"I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony and with equal opportunities. It is an ideal which I hope to live and to achieve. But if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die"— throughout my 26 years in prison, this courageous and historic peroration of Nelson Mandela's statement from the dock during the Rivonia Trial kept alive the vision of the society we are striving to achieve. With a possible death sentence looming, he had boldly and clearly reaffirmed African National Congress (ANC) policy, and its commitment to the Freedom Charter, embracing its political, economic and cultural clauses. All the accused approved of the address from the dock.

At home and in exile, in the face of great danger, the ANC leadership stuck rigidly to this policy of a non-racial, non-sexist, democratic South Africa and acted firmly against any deviation from it.

Hence I emerged from prison full of confidence, albeit with somewhat idealistic — even utopian — ideas about the practical implementation of the policy.

Realities

It did not take long for me to wake up to the realities of South Africa to which we had returned. More than three centuries of apartheid had left a legacy of massive poverty, hunger, illiteracy, unemployment, homelessness and — above all — racial polarisation and State-orchestrated violence.

While the unbanned ANC was engaged in re-establishing itself in branches and regions, the United Democratic Front (UDF) and Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) continued to lead the oppressed to new heights of disciplined non-violent struggle and political consciousness. On the other hand, the continuing Third Force violence led to the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) process facing collapse on more than one occasion.

That was the situation 12 months before the 1994 elections. Then came the dastardly assassination of Comrade Chris Hani, the widely revered and charismatic ANC and Communist Party leader. This single act propelled South Africa to the brink of a bloodbath, the likes of which had never been seen before. The situation called for utmost calm, courage, statesmanship and foresight. President F.W. de Klerk's government found itself in a state of panic, confusion, helplessness and impotence. In this atmosphere of unprecedented tension, ANC president Nelson Mandela rushed to Johannesburg from the Transkei and was asked to appear on television. His simple, forceful words saved the country from imminent disaster:

"Tonight I am reaching out to every single South African, black and white, from the very depths of my being. A white man, full of prejudice and hate, came to our country and committed a deed so foul that our whole nation now teeters to the brink of disaster. A white woman, of Afrikaner origin, risked her life so that we may know, and bring to justice, this assassin … Now is the time for all South Africans to stand together against those who, from any quarter, wish to destroy what Chris Hani gave his life for — the freedom of all of us."

The country responded positively to his appeal for peace, and that night, a full year before his official inauguration, Mandela effectively became the new president of South Africa. Not a single individual in government ranks, nor even in the liberation movement, had the stature of Madiba, and no one else could have commanded the respect needed to avert disaster.

During the five years of his presidency Madiba concentrated on spreading and consolidating a message of forgiveness, reconciliation, unity, peace and nation building.

Among the first steps

Among the earliest gestures was to invite the wives and widows of former Prime Ministers and Presidents to tea, and to take a special trip to the white Afrikaner enclave of Orania to pay a courtesy call on Betsie Verwoerd, the ailing widow of the assassinated architect of apartheid, Hendrik Frensch Verwoerd.

I am frequently asked to explain the so-called "miracle" of our peaceful transformation. In keeping with what I believe is our government's policy, my response has been that it should be presumptuous of us to prescribe to other countries how they should solve their problems. We recall that, with only a handful of exceptions, virtually all wars and conflicts end at the negotiation table. All we can do is to relate our experiences — how in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, with a background of over three centuries of white rule and great deal of violence and bloodshed, the ANC and the incumbent government had agreed to enter into discussions; how these talks had led to the formal CODESA Conference, at which the basis of the interim Constitution was agreed upon. This in turn had led to the first democratic elections of 1994.

On her visit to Robben Island in 1996, Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway suggested the establishment of a conflict resolution centre on the island. Prime Minister Gujral of India, on his visit to Robben Island in 1997, echoed this idea. Sadly we haven't made much progress. In my view, with its recent history and the universal interest it attracts, Robben Island would be the ideal venue for such a centre.

( Ahmed Kathrada, a South African political leader, is a close associate of Nelson Mandela, who turns 93 today. Mr. Kathrada spent 26 years in prison — for his opposition to apartheid — 18 of which were on Robben Island. He is in New Delhi to take part in Mandela Day Commemoration today .)

How does one explain the 'miracle' of South Africa's peaceful transformation?

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE ASIAN AGE

WORLD ON EDGE AS US ON THE BRINK

This coming week will be critical both for America's economic future and also for the already struggling fragile global economy. A miffed US President Barack Obama has set the American Congress a July 22 deadline to decide on raising the statutory debt ceiling so that the government can borrow to pay off its debts and not default on existing liabilities. He would like to reduce the deficit from between $1.7 trillion and $4 trillion in the next 10 years, while raising taxes to boost revenues, but many Republicans — particularly those elected with "Tea Party" movement support, are adamant on not burdening the rich with additional taxes. By law, the US national debt cannot exceed a ceiling of $14.29 trillion, which it has already reached, and which can only be raised by Congress. The Republicans want a saving of $2.4 trillion, but with no new taxes. As is usually the case wherever there is a financial crisis, it is society's most vulnerable sections which are hit first. Since May, when this ceiling was reached, the government has stopped payments to some federal pension schemes and liquidated some assets elsewhere. If the ceiling is not raised by July 22, Medicare and unemployment benefits in the US could face cutbacks.

The world is watching with trepidation as both parties in the US Congress trade charges and indulge in name calling instead of putting their country first. The Moody's credit rating agency has already put the US on negative watch, while Standard & Poor has warned that it would cut America's triple-A rating (AAA), that it has enjoyed since 1917, to D (the bottom) — as they have little confidence that an agreement would be hammered out by the squabbling Congressmen in time. It is worth remembering that these rating agencies had not hesitated to reduce Greek bonds to junk even though that country had not yet defaulted in payments. They are, however, going a lot softer on the US, still the world's largest economy — around which almost every country's trade revolves.

If the United States were actually to default on payments to its creditors, it would be a devastating commentary on the state of American politics and the state of its finances. It is felt in some quarters that such a situation will never materialise; that the Republicans are famous for their brinkmanship and have done this before when Washington almost had to down shutters some months ago. They have been giving President Obama a hard time at almost every opportunity. This is not a crisis of Mr Obama's making: he had inherited massive debts from his predecessor, who merrily blew up money on unnecessary wars and lavish military contracts, while at the same time cutting taxes on the rich with abandon. It is estimated that almost 60 per cent of the deterioration in US finances is due to the contraction in revenues following the economic slowdown, and 40 per cent due to the stimulus package, which the government had to announce as the private sector was not spending.
The global financial markets are not very optimistic about America at this juncture, particularly creditors who are apprehensive about repayments. Moody's was the first to raise the red flag, jolting America and much of the world. China, which is America's largest creditor, is urging Washington to act to protect investors' interests. But even if the Republicans finally accept a token raise so that they are not blamed for what US Fed chief Ben Bernanke has warned would be a "huge financial calamity", America's reputation is already dented. Creditors may well start asking for higher interest rates, and no one is confident such a situation will not arise again and again — as is now being seen in Greece.

***************************************

THE ASIAN AGE

SPELL, INTERRUPTED

S. NIHAL SINGH

The furore over the machinations of News of the World in the Murdoch stable exposes the risks to a free press in the fountain head of democracy and highlights the vulnerability of media to the new technological age we live in. Britain has been proverbially notorious for its taste in lurid journalism even while renowned for what are called quality broadsheets. What is harder to explain is how one person was able to own a string of newspapers ranging from tabloids known for page-three topless women and salacious stories to such a venerable newspaper as the Times. And until now he was on the way fully to control the highly profitable BSkyB satellite channel, a deal he has had to call off.

What is even more astonishing is that the monopoly of newspapers and part ownership of the BSkyB channel made him a virtual arbiter of making and breaking governments. No wonder a string of hoary British politicians ranging from Tony Blair to David Cameron and an army of others courted Rupert Murdoch, who was not shy in boasting his power to tilt the balance in favour or against potential Prime Ministers. And once his favoured Prime Minister took office, he loudly proclaimed his role.

As British Prime Minister David Cameron belatedly acknowledged, no politician was immune from courting Mr Murdoch. In plain language, British politicians were pulverised by the fear that Mr Murdoch had it in his power to destroy their political careers. With public anger mounting over the serial hacking of cellphones of murdered victims, the royals, police officials and even killed British soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq, an inquiry has now been ordered, which will also seek answers to how to foster a free and clean media.
The methods of collecting news regardless of the means employed, including the bribing of police officials, and how widespread the practice was are subjects for inquiry. But given the scale of the operations, a thorough house-cleaning seems to be in order. Mr Murdoch was a maverick publisher who dared and won. He took on the Fleet Street labour unions and humbled them. And his ruthlessness in beating competition was a byword in newspaper lore. How he traded on his initial success on Fleet Street to replicate the model in the United States going to the extent of becoming an American citizen to own media assets is an epic story. Mr Murdoch has been seeking to redefine the Fourth Estate.

Overall, the Murdoch saga in Britain presents a sorry picture. How could Britain lose its way, as it so obviously has? There was handwringing before ceding the Times to Mr Murdoch, as there was in the United States in the case of the Wall Street Journal, and Mr Murdoch invented the highly profitable Fox News channel as an extreme form of campaign journalism. Perhaps the end of Great Britain's empire affected its self-esteem and confidence so greatly that it was prepared to surrender to any daring adventurer with the money and gumption to stake a claim to the country's traditional riches.

The twist in the tale of the Murdoch saga has an object lesson for the world that believes in a free media. First, governments must reinforce anti-monopoly mechanisms to prevent one person or organisation cornering the media market, thus acquiring the kind of political power Mr Murdoch has exercised over the British political system. This particularly applies to the simultaneous ownership of print and electronic media. An effective supervisory provision to ensure fair play has been missing.

Mr Cameron has many crosses to bear. He had employed Andy Coulson, a former editor of News of the World, as his communication chief and although he has been suitably contrite in taking his share of the blame, it was a gross error of judgement in employing him. The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, has been particularly vocal in decrying Murdoch's practices. One danger, of course, is that under the guise of seeking to keep media on the straight and narrow the authorities would assume powers that could curb freedom of expression. That applies more to emerging economies than established democracies. But the manner in which Mr Murdoch conducted himself is an object lesson in how the mother of Parliaments can be kept at bay.
Modern technology is here to stay and cannot be disinvented. Rather, the cure lies in the hoary adage of eternal vigilance being the price of liberty. In Britain's case, the two major parties did not do their duty in guarding against the evil of monopoly control. And once Mr Murdoch had pretty nearly cornered the press from the tabloids to the traditional quality paper and partly owned a successful satellite channel, he had acquired too much clout to be tamed by politicians seeking to stay out of his way for fear of being vilified, with party leaders feting him in 10 Downing Street.

It needed the shock of a newspaper hacking the cellphone of a murdered girl and later discoveries of how Scotland Yard papered over earlier investigations because the investigating officers had been compromised to bring out the full horrors of a culture of sycophancy and a media group that stopped at nothing to have its way. This is without doubt the greatest setback to the meteoric rise of perhaps the most successful media buccaneer of modern times. He has had to close down News of the World to cut his losses and has for the moment lost his bid to control all of BSkyB, apart from losing his British chief executive, Rebekah Brooks. What is worse from Mr Murdoch's point of view is that his magic spell has been broken. A second looming tragedy is across the Atlantic because some American politicians are beginning to question his practices and the Federal Bureau of Investigation has launched an investigation. With Fox News, Murdoch has set a new idiom in broadcast journalism by aggressively slanting news to promote a political cause. In a sense, he has been a godfather of the Tea Party movement.

The author can be contacted at snihalsingh@gmail.com

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

CONTINUED RE-ENGAGEMENTT

India-Pak re-engagement on Kashmir centric CBMs and also other important matters of bilateral concern signifies improved and upgraded approach to the overall spectrum of bilateral relationship. There is a flurry of meetings and exchanges on the cards, beginning with a Pakistani delegation that landed in New Delhi on Sunday evening. The 13 July bomb blasts in Mumbai have not been allowed to vitiate the atmosphere of bilateral talks and Pakistan has formally, and her Prime Minister personally, condemned the terrorist act and sympathized with the victims. From smaller beginnings, there will be ascent to more important and crucial issues for deliberation including talks on nuclear security and anti-terrorist strategies. All this indicates maturing of interlocutors on both sides and their sincerity of intentions to iron out angularities. Political observers across the continents are closely watching the progress of Indo-Pak détente and the brightening of the prospect of peace in the sub-continent. The question is not who gains and who loses from what is mutually agreed upon; the fact of the matter is that it is the vast population of the sub-continent, almost one fourth of the entire human population that is going to benefit from friendly and cordial relations between the two warring neighbours. The process of re-engagement has to be looked upon from that angle.
If wisdom and statesmanship are allowed to have their way, good and friendly relations between the two countries could become a catalyst to a radical change in their economic condition. Both are developing countries and both have many problems in common. For some reasons, Pakistan is faced with more stringent economic conditions today than ever before. Though India is not in a very happy economic position as well, but she is on the path of economic improvement and is expected to emerge a strong economy in the Asian region after China. Pakistan as her next door neighbour can immensely benefit from this scenario. Trade and commerce with India on the basis of equality and justice would go a long way in cementing relations between the two countries. Europe is one economic zone and it has drawn immense benefits from it. India and Pakistan, too, can tie up in a manner so that there is free flow of trade between them. This is precisely what the US believes in. "India's economic rise presents a huge opportunity for Pakistan, a bilateral breakthrough could provide a catalyst for wider regional economic integration in South and Central Asia," Robert Hormats, Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, said. This official will be part of the delegation scheduled to be held in India this month, and from what he has said, is a signal to both the countries that the US would welcome any step forward in this direction. The foreign ministers of the two countries are expected to meet later this month and prior to their meeting the two foreign secretaries are again meeting to pave the way for some definite progress and measures to be announced following the foreign minister level meeting in New Delhi. We hope that this rare opportunity will not be missed by one or the other country, and that they will not get bogged with small and insignificant things. The ground is smooth for delivery and the people in both the countries expect concrete outcome of the process of re-engagement.

***************************************

DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

BLASTS CONDEMNED

There has been widespread condemnation of 13 July Mumbai bomb blasts from leadership of all hues in and outside the country. In a rare instance, the Grand Mufti of Jammu and Kashmir, Maulana Bashiru'd-Din also condemned the blasts calling it inhuman. The Maulana is highly venerated in Kashmir and is considered a very senior and mature religious figure who speaks very less and very rarely on political issues. But he has taken the human aspect of the bomb blasts into view and has suggested that "people from all walks of life have to cooperate to bring an end to these acts, which result in colossal loss of human life, particularly of innocent people." Earlier other separatist leaders in Kashmir also condemned the attacks and implored people to unite against such heinous crimes. Thus while terrorism is spanning the entire sub-continent in one form or the other, there is growing realization among the civil society in both the countries, India and Pakistan, that they should coordinate their efforts to meet the challenge. Obviously, condemning terrorism also means rejecting the training and infiltration of armed gangsters on a foreign soil and inducing them to operate in India. This is not acceptable to anybody who is seriously interested in supporting peaceful atmosphere in relations between the two countries.

***************************************

DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

DEPARTMENT OF POSTS? OR, DEPARTMENT OF RURAL BANKING?

BY DR BHARAT JHUNJHUNWALA

The Department of Posts has sent the Draft Post Office Bill, 2011 to the Cabinet for approval. Courier Companies will be required to charge double the amount charged by the Post Office for letters up to 50 grams sent by Speed Post. Present charge for Speed Post is Rs 25. It will obligatory for Courier Companies to charge minimum Rs 50 for such letters. This will provide some relief to the Department. Postal delivery will become cheaper than Courier. This restriction will be removed after 15 years.
The imposition of minimum charges defies logic, however. Objective of the Government should be to bring about a reduction in the cost of these services. The Government is making efforts to bring down the cost of infrastructure such as by privatizing distribution of power in metropolitan cities. The same policy should be applied here.
It will be difficult to implement such a provision anyways. Small courier companies will issue a receipt for Rs 50 but charge only Rs 30 from the customers. The Government will be providing encouragement to the people to violate the law. This provision will be especially harmful for small courier companies. Bigger Companies presently charge about Rs 40 to Rs 100 for a letter. They will be scarcely affected. Small Companies presently charge Rs 25 to Rs 40. They will come under pressure. Some may have to close down. This will be harmful for the country. The Government must provide protection to small companies and enable them to stand up to the big brothers. Such competition alone will save the customers from the tyranny of big business.
The purpose of providing protection to the Department of Posts is to compensate it for the services provided by it in the rural areas. The Department runs many post offices in small villages. These Post Offices provide less business but cost of running them is high. On the other hand Courier Companies only serve the large-volume big city markets. Thus the costs of the Department are high. This needs to be compensated. The argument is correct. However, this compensation can be provided by imposing an 'Access Deficit Charge' on Courier Companies along the lines imposed on telecom companies.
The courier companies can be classified in categories such as those providing services in metropolitan cities, state capitals, district headquarters, small towns and rural areas. The rates of service tax can be lowered and subsidies provided to both private- and government players on a staggered basis. This will encourage courier companies to provide courier services in small towns and help spread economic development to remote areas. Higher use of courier services in small towns will reduce the losses of Department of Posts.
We have successfully followed this model in mobile telephony. The Private players pay Access Deficit Charges on the services supplied by them in urban areas and Government-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited collects subsidies on services provided by it in rural areas. Private players too are entitled to receive subsidy on provision of services in rural areas. This has led to intensified competition for provision of services in rural areas. It has also exerted pressure on BSNL to improve its services both in terms of cost and quality. The same model can be applied to the postal services.
Another objective of the Government is to reduce its budget deficit by increasing income of the Department of Posts. The idea is that restriction on carrying of letters by courier companies will lead to an increase in the business of the Department of Posts and reduction of losses that are to be met from the Union Budget. It is doubtful whether this approach will be successful. Courier companies work as grease in the economy. They collect cheque from one company and deliver to another the next day at a low cost leading to growth of business. The resultant economic growth leads to higher tax receipts by the government. Restriction on Courier Companies, therefore, will impact the economy negatively. It will lead to slower delivery of documents and bring down the growth rate of the economy. That will lead to lower tax receipts and higher budget deficit of the government. The Government will also get less service tax, income tax because of less business done by courier companies. On the positive side, the new law will lead to more income for the Department of Posts and reduction of budget deficit. The final impact will depend upon the sum of two impacts. In my opinion, the budget deficit of the Government will increase. The proposed amendment will, in the main, provide more opportunities to Postal Inspectors to harass small courier companies and for indulging in corruption.
The objective of reduction in budget deficit can be better attained by allowing full freedom to courier companies to fix charges but imposing higher taxes on them.
The government can calculate the amount of subsidy it wishes to provide to the Department of Posts for its rural services and impose taxes of like amount on courier companies. The economy can bear the burden of such taxes but not that of restrictions on charges.
The Department argues that Postal Departments enjoy monopoly on delivery of letters in most countries. India is only trying to follow this international best practice. This is only partially true. The Civil Society Exchange tells on its website that the Postal Department has monopoly on letters weighing less than 350 grams in England, 250 grams in Australia and 50 grams in Netherlands and Germany. On the other hand there is no restriction in New Zealand. Japan is slated to privatize its postal services. European Union also requires its member countries to open up their postal services to private players. Clearly the international best practice is moving in the direction of privatization, not monopoly. Indeed the Postal Department has monopoly in many countries today but this is being dismantled.
The basic problem is that technological developments have made postal delivery outdated. It is cheaper to talk on mobile phones than to send a letter. Email has reduced the need to send many letters. The Department is moving into provision of financial products to regain profitability. 4000 post offices will soon have Core Banking Services. It will be possible to encash a cheque at any CBS post office. This step is in the right direction. The Department of Posts should pursue this reorientation actively and not derail the courier industry. Ten years down the line, the Department of Posts may be renamed as Department of Rural Banking.

***************************************

DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

EDUCATION IN RURAL INDIA

BY RAM RATTAN SHARMA

In a country that had more rural population than any other country in the world the education was largely confined to metropolitan centres and larger cities. Even the smaller towns and other urban settlements were seriously lacking adequate educational facilities, so at that time, it looked obvious that villages were given the limited resources of nascent Independent Indian state.
In 1881, there were 82916 schools in the entire country. A separate department for education was formed for the first time during 1910 by the British Govt. As for adult education upto 1920s, the sphere was confined to few night schools in metropolitan cities while villages were totally unattended. Some Indian rulers of princely states extended support to night schools through financial support, setting up of libraries in rural areas and other sort of patronage in the 19th century. Education of rural masses was a part of the independence agenda of the national leaders. In 1946-47, the number of schools had increased to 134866, while the total enrolment stood at 10525943 students.
In 1947, India achieved independence and inherited a system of education which was characterized by large scale inter and intra regional imbalances. The system educated a selected few. The country's literacy rate was a mere 14 percent and only 8 percent of females were literate. There was social inequality gender disparity, and rigid social stratification. After independence a full-fledged ministry of education was established on 29th August 1947. It indicated the need, commitment, and determination of the Govt. towards extension and growth of education in India. Eradication of illiteracy was one of the major national concerns at the time of independence. Most of the villagers were illiterate and had no access to education centres, Govt. of India established a council for rural higher education for promoting the graduate level manpower through rural institutes. A standing committee on education was established and a national fundamental education centre was started in 1956 to boost the rural education and rural development programmes. Various states at their level also took interest in this direction. Despite these efforts, the rural literacy and did not take much headway. The literacy increased from 14 percent in 1947 to 18.4 percent and 24 percent in 1961. The Kothari Commission in 1964 took up the threads again and emphasized the need for eradication of illiteracy suggested certain measures. In 1974 the central advisory board of education recommended for non formal education programmes and for functional dimension. The National Policy on Education gave an unqualified priority to universalization of education system and there was no formal education in educationally backward states. The major thrust of policy was literacy promotion among women, schedule castes and schedule tribes particularly in the rural areas. Despite all such efforts the results were not satisfactory. Eradication of illiteracy from one of the world's most populated country is not easy. The need was for a more comprehensive and specifically targeted approach. Realizing this National Literacy Mission came into being and was implemented on 5 May, 1988 to impart a new sense of urgency and seriousness to mass education. As per the census of India 2001, the literacy rate had increased to 65.38 percent. The remarkable performance under NLC Programmes received International recognition.
The Ministry of Rural Development has been working as the apex body in implementing and supervising progammes for poverty alleviation, education, employment generation, infrastructure development, social security and allied issues. Several new initiatives have been taken to bring the children to schools. Several programmes intended to provide rural children access to education, includes stipends, free uniform and text books, midday meals and special attention to girl child education. These initiatives have encouraged parents to send their children to school. Besides, their have been attempts to keep the rural children up to date with the latest technical know how.
The progress that the country has made during the last sixty years has been remarkable. The country of villages is seen differently than it was sixty years ago by the outside world. There is much still pending work to be done, the efforts that have been made in the past, the outcome should be fruitful, more sincerity and dedication is required at all levels for success of the programmes.

***************************************

DAILY EXCELSIOR

ISHWAR ALLAH TERO NAM

BY AMIT KUSHARI (IAS RETD)

Kashmiri muslims are not fanatic muslims who hate India because India is a Hindu majority nation.Many of them are very tolerant towards Hindus and do not have any grudge or malice against the minorities.Social relations between Hindus and muslims have always been excellent- in fact it was perhaps the best in India. Common uneducated Kashmiris also know that Allah is not the sole property of muslims --He belongs to all the religions of the world. He is Rab-ul-alameen and not only Rab-ul- musalmeen.Hindus call Rab-ul -alameen as Vishwanath.Kashmiris also know it very well that all religions lead to the same God.
The flight of the pandits was really an extra ordinary event.
The Kashmiri Pundits were forced to flee Kashmir in 1989/90 because they refused to fight with their muslim brothers for achieving an independent Kashmir. They were also suspected to be spies of India.
The Kashmiri muslims, as I have found them, are very tolerant towards Hindus and they bear no malice against them , in general....although they are very religious in their day to day actiuvities. The people belonging to Ahlehadees and Jamaat-e-Islami communities need a special mention. I have seen that even in the cold weather of chill e-kalan (December/ January) they get up at 4 a.m. and go to the village mosque for fajar prayers. They observe 29 fasts strictly in Ramzan---which would appear to be a very difficult task for non-muslims.
This brings back to my mind a youg boy called Firoz Ahmed who belonged to a remote village of Pulwama district. He was my bungalow peon and belonged to a very poor family who could not afford two square meals a day and had to go to bed hungry quite often----of course, prior to his getting a govt.job . I had helped him to get the govt. job for which he was grateful to me. He had a brother called Mohammad Yaquab and he wanted me to take him also in a government job. In those days the rules were not so strict and Ministers and bureaucrats could help people get into class IV jobs. Firoz used to pray five times with a lot of devotion and he used to say that Allah always responded to his prayers. He had prayed to Allah for Yaqub's job and that in his dream Allah appeared to him to assure him that Yaqub would get a job through Kushari sahab.
I was a bit disgusted with his constant reminders about his brother's job.I told him that there was not a single class IV vacancy in my department in the whole of J&K and that his brother had no chance at all. He wouldn't listen to me and insisted that Allah could never be wrong in His assurances. " You will surely get a message from Him about Yaqub." Every morning when I woke up Firoz would bring tea for me and enquire ,"Hukm ma aao kanh?" (Did you get any order from God?"] I was sick and tired of telling him every day " No message at all-and please stop this daily nonsense. "
One night indeed I had a dream. I found myself lost in the forests of a big mountain and was trying to grope my way forward when I found a Goddess riding on a tiger just in front of me. I exclaimed," Are you the Mother of the universe?" She replied, "Yes I am." She then smiled at me and spoke in very clear Kashmiri,"Mohd. Yaqub chhu myon nechu- yaad chhu thaaun." [Md Yaqoob is my son -remember that]I asked her ,"Mother, do you speak Kashmiri?" The Goddess looked at me and laughed. "I know all the languages of the world."
Next morning Firoz asked me the same question, "Hukm ma aao kanh?" I told him," I didn't get any message from Allah but I got some sort of a message from Goddess Durga." Firoz exclaimed,"It is the same thing! When Allah has to give a message to a Kafir He takes the form of gods and goddesses, otherwise the kafir will not recognise Him." These simple words actually gave a message that all religions lead to the same God.
A month passed after the dream and I could not help Yaqub because there was no vacancy at all. However, suddenly one day I noticed that the Planning department had sanctioned quite a few posts for an office to be opened in Kargil district. There was one post of orderly also in the list. I sent the file to the Finance department for concurrence and lo and behold the Finance deparment gave their concurrence in two weeks only. Normally the finance department takes one year to send their agreement. Yaqub was ultimately posted in Kargil.
Firoz's happiness knew no bounds. He said, "I told you that an assurance from Allah can never be wrong."
I was really amazed by his unwavering faith in God. The faith was coupled with his realisation that God is only one although He may appear in different forms before people of different faiths.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner J&K)
Feedback to the writer at amitkus@hotmail.com or 09748635185.

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

CROSSING THE LINE

JUDICIARY MUST RESPECT EXECUTIVE TURF

The frequent lapses of the executive in the recent past have earned adverse comments from Supreme Court judges, some of whom have now got emboldened to cross the Lakshman rekha drawn to mark the separation of powers in the Constitution. On July 4 the Supreme Court constituted a special investigation team (SIT) to look into the affairs of Hasan Ali Khan and the Tapurias, suspected black money holders, and bring back unlawful money kept abroad. Many Indians may share the Supreme Court's conclusion that the government is not doing enough to trace black money and even share its disgust at the slow pace of investigation. But not many expect the court to take up the executive's job and appoint retired judges as the Chairman and Vice-Chairman of the SIT and also rope in the RAW chief, who is supposed to keep a low profile.

This happened after the court had described as insufficient the high-level committee appointed by the government to do the job. Now how and whether the SIT would do a better job is a matter of opinion. It was, therefore, quite natural for the government to move the Supreme Court and seek a recall of the July 4 court order, which, according to the government petition, impinged on its jurisdiction and violated the doctrine of separation of powers. Moreover, the original petitioner, Ram Jethmalani, had not prayed for the constitution of a SIT.

This is not the first time that the judiciary and the executive are engaged in a turf battle. Judicial activism pursued in recent years has been widely appreciated in this country. It is when judicial activism turns to "judicial overreach" that it becomes an issue. There is a very thin dividing line and any suspected or actual digression provokes a controversy. A Supreme Court Bench comprising Justices G.S. Singhvi and A.K. Ganguly has reacted to the charge of courts "exceeding the unwritten boundaries of their jurisdiction". Nobody negates the good work judges are doing in helping the needy. But frequent, harsh criticism of the executive is avoidable. It seems the government has started to assert itself by challenging the SIT order.

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

SOARING SUCCESS

ISRO DELIVERS, AGAIN

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) fell back on its old workhorse, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), to launch a heavy communication satellite successfully, and in doing so, it showed both its strength and weakness. The PSLV has an enviable record of successfully delivering payloads in space, while its bigger version, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) has a chequered history. After the two successive failures of GSLV rockets last year, ISRO understandably decided to make modifications to the PSLV rocket and use that for the successful launch of its GSAT-12 satellite. The satellite's 12 extended C-band transponders, when they are fully tested by the end of the month, will provide a much-needed boost to various communication services such as tele-education, telemedicine and village resource centres as well as disaster management.

A bigger and more powerful satellite, GSAT-10, will be launched later in the year by an Ariane-5ECA. The satellite has lift-off mass of 3435 kg, for which GSLVs would be needed. ISRO has been making steady progress in indigenising GSLVs, but the cryogenic engines have proved to be a formidable challenge, more so because ISRO had to start on them from scratch after Russia reneged on its deal to provide hydrogen-fuelled rocket engines and technical knowhow under US pressure in 1992. While there have been failures, there is no doubt that ISRO will be able to successfully meet this challenge, as it has done in the past.

Indeed, the Indian space programme has been much lauded, not only for its success but also the relatively low cost at which it has been achieved. Having put the Indian flag on the moon, ISRO now seeks to send Indian astronauts into space. However, that endeavour is dependent not only on the success of its GSLV programme but its continued, flawless launches. Having delivered much to the nation, it is expected that ISRO will rise to the challenge yet again, even as it gets a pat on the back for yet another successful launch.

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

DOMESTIC ABUSE

STOP SEXUAL AND PHYSICAL VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN

Violence against women is not unknown in India. What is particularly appalling is that they are unsafe even in places where they ought to feel the safest. From a mother's womb to her marital home, a woman's very existence is threatened at every step. According to the report of UN Women (a United Nation's organisation) 35 per cent women in India face domestic violence. Not only have victims reported physical violence at the hands of their partners but a good 10 per cent have faced sexual violence too. Worse still, it's not only the men who condone violence; even women feel that domestic violence is justified.

The visible presence of women in empowering positions has done little to change their position in the family matrix. When it comes to man-woman equation it seems that the fair sex continues to remain at the receiving end. The recent case involving a diplomat proves wife beating is not restricted to any particular class. Ironically, studies have even found a direct correlation between education and domestic violence. Reports have also shown that even new-generation men are no less guilty. The Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act, hailed as a pathbreaking piece of legislation, was expected to bring relief to women. But what to talk of holding men accountable for verbal abuse, by and large men have been getting away with physical violence too.

While the UN report has lamented the negligible presence of women as judges and rightly called for more gender-sensitive laws, clearly laws alone are not enough. Though many women have sought recourse to the DVA law and courts too have delivered heartening judgements, still domestic violence continues to be not only widespread but often goes unreported. Indeed, there is an urgent need to spread awareness that domestic abuse is not just a personal affair. At the same time men have to be reconditioned to change their convoluted notions of masculinity. Women, too, must fight gender biased attitudes. Men will learn to respect women only if the so-called weaker sex sheds its meek behaviour that grants an alibi of sorts to reprehensible acts such as wife beating.

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

ARTICLE

CAUTION: WORK IN PROGRESS

SOME DEADWOOD STILL THERE

The disappointment and breast- beating over the Union Cabinet reshuffle comes from excessive expectations created in media and political circles by the kind of incestuous hype that appears to drive so much public discourse in India. Media speculation was rife and fatuous panel discussions night after night, with Opposition sharpshooters taking position among the pundits and media oracles, caused much fur to fly. When the actual event turned out to be a more modest and sober, yet business-like affair in the given circumstances, political punters and others who had placed outlandish bets felt cheated.

This is not to suggest that reshuffle has given the country an ideal Cabinet. But given the political and coalitional constraints he faced, the Prime Minister has not done too badly. Some non-performers have been put to pasture and good new faces brought in. Sometimes a change in portfolio can reflect on performance. One will have to wait and see. Some deadwood remains.

Mr Jairam Ramesh has not been penalised nor pushed out from the Ministry of Environment and Forests. He did a great deal to put that once-moribund ministry on the map and ably steered India's position in global negotiations on climate change. He also took a firm line on implementation of conditionalities attached to forest and environmental clearances but perhaps pushed too far at the cost of avoidable delays in sanctioning landmark power, mining and manufacturing projects, using retrospective application of new laws in some instances to stymie progress. He had later softened his stand as in the case of the Jaitapur nuclear project. Yet he had become a red rag to the bull and this is perhaps why he was moved, yielding place to a more soft-spoken but no less savvy successor in Ms Jayanti Natarajan.

Mr Ramesh will have every opportunity to show his mettle in the important Rural Development Ministry where he will be the custodian of a number of vital grassroots programmes such as NREGA. One can have little sympathy with some ministers of state who desired no less than Cabinet portfolios, their egos outrunning their abilities or sense of service over self.

More worrying than the naming of ministers is the balkanisation of ministries and departments within them over the years to accommodate all and sundry. This has added to costs, fragmentation of responsibility and incompetence without serving any real political purpose. This is something that calls for early and urgent reform. It is a pity that the positions of parliamentary secretaries and deputy ministers have disappeared whereas they could be a valuable training and proving ground for younger talent. Similarly, the "weight" attached to ministries has been wayward, patronage and opportunities for rent seeking often being private criteria for preference rather than the social importance of the charge. Thus, water resources has been treated most casually in recent time and sometimes power, mining and health.

Ministers in absentia, like Ms Mamata Bannerjee earlier and Mr Alagizhi, also send out wrong signals and impair the culture of good governance. The Railways has been allowed to roll downhill over the years, most often being seen as a source of patronage and rent-seeking. These are important matters that demand urgent attention because UPA-II will be judged over the rest of its three-year tenure by performance — progress on interrupted economic reforms, positioning India to take its place as an emerging regional and potential global power, and administrative reforms that must include systems improvement, personnel training, lateral recruitment, autonomy to regulators and cutting out fat in staffing while providing adequate numbers of judges, teachers, doctors, policemen and other key functionaries.

The challenge before the government is not winning the UP polls through brash grandstanding or petty manoeuvres, but by policies, performance and creating the basis for the next great leap forward by critical reforms, HRD and infrastructure development. This alone will provide jobs and growth and make for poverty alleviation. The Land Acquisition Bill, the Lokpal Bill (though the issues involved are far wider, including police reform and reform of the criminal justice system) and the Equal Opportunity Bill are only some among the major priorities. Autonomy for public service and community broadcasting should also be among things to do as communication and informed dialogue are necessary for participative governance.

It is good that the matter of higher defence management has again been raised through the appointment of a high-level committee under Mr Naresh Chandra. The debate on a chief of defence staff and integrated theatre commands has been reopened. The matter was studied by the Arun Singh Committee in the Rajiv era. It was again endorsed by the Kargil Review Committee and the task force on higher defence management set up as a consequence and approved by a GoM thereafter. The matter was intensively debated within the Ministry of Defence and every effort was made to assuage the anxieties of the smaller services, the Navy and the Air Force. It was suggested that the first two CDS should come from these two services. The Fortress Command, established in the Andamans, has worked well. An Integrated Defence branch has been set up but there the matter rests.

It is necessary that a satisfactory resolution is soon found as higher defence planning and strategic thinking cannot be left to single services or a non-functional National Security Council. The Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, though useful, is not fully equipped for the task. A clear decision and early closure is required so that the country can plan its security and strategic framework more effectively.

Finally, there have been demands in the country, especially in Tamil Nadu, that India support the demand for a war crimes commission to probe the alleged genocide by Sri Lanka's armed forces that brought the LTTE insurgency/war to a close. These are largely based on a documentary, "The Killing Fields" produced by the UK's Channel Four TV. The Sri Lankan authorities challenge the authenticity of the film and argue that a high powered internal commission is seized of all allegations and complaints and that its verdict should be awaited.

This is not an unreasonable proposition and could be more acceptable if international observers could be attached to the commission. India should be in no hurry to demand a war crimes commission to pacify domestic opinion as its own early role in assisting the thoroughly unscrupulous and murderous LTTE constitutes a sorry tale. There is a need to act with caution here.

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

OPED

CHANDIGARH, THEN AND NOW

BY ASHOK KUMAR YADAV

WHILE I was moving into Chandigarh, on my maiden voyage, I was feeling excited but nervous, like a hesitant teenager approaching a beautiful maiden. I was to migrate to the city beautiful for higher studies, after completing my schooling in remote parts of Haryana.

Ecstatic as I was, I thanked God for granting my wish, to stay afloat in the lap of what was often hyped to be as stunning and vibrant as Helen of Troy. As the bus rolled in, I truly felt flabbergasted in admiration, while I explored various parts en route. Echoing with Christopher Marlowe in "Dr Faustus", I kept wondering, "Was this the face that launch'd a thousand ships, and burnt …" hundreds of buses by over-enthusiasts of Punjab and Haryana, clamouring "Helen, come, here will I dwell".

I instantly fell in love with Chandigarh, renowned for its astute planning, social fluidity, throbbing culture and elitist moorings. I was over-run by scholastic milieu too, ruling in educational institutes here. With bubbly Shivaliks pulsating in the background, the city used to breathe fresh and look refreshing, like an outpouring woman, sprinkled with droplets.

The Rose Garden had justly been christened as a romantic cradle for nascent lovers, cool and thrilling. Some of us would regularly play truant from nearby DAV College to gaze upon blooming roses and rosy girls, much to the annoyance of Principal Triloki Nath. He rather coined a hilarious interpretation to what the three monkeys of Bapu preached- "Don't you see, talk or hear anything about girls". Had he had his way, he would have certainly dumped all boys in the northern hemisphere and girls in the southern hemisphere.

Chandigarh today is not what it used to be, not long ago. Earlier known for its elegance, it has now, over the years, graduated into a city of heterosexuals. Its gorgeous beauty has been ravished, architectural grandeur robbed, culture invaded, character violated.

Its heart, Sukhna Lake, gets choked rather too often; its road-arteries cry for angioplasty whereas engineers are content with installation of mere stents and routine patch-work. Surely, it is now aging fast to its unnatural demise, triggered by deforestation and consequent contraction of its lungs.

True to what Francis Bacon outlined in his essay "Of Great Place", the Chandigarhians too have become "thrice servants: servants of sovereign; servants of fame; and servants of business". Its "men in great fortunes have turned strangers to themselves", and when a Chandigarhian "sits in place, he is another man".

Even Le Corbusier, the French architect, would have been driven to the precipice of committing suicide, had he seen how haphazardly its skyline was being vitiated. Last night, an agitated Corbusier appeared in my dream and thundered, how he had created a city of dreams, out of the ashes of what was it once called, city of ghosts.

He pleaded to me, to rekindle the wonderland, he had so beautifully styled, akin to Paris, away from Paris. I instantly nodded to join hands with his "open hand", to re-discover the lost heritage. Hence, this middle!

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

OPED

IMRAN SCORES A POPULAR CENTURY

ASHA'AR REHMAN

ALL those who frown at the Imran Khan options in politics, they presumably are the indefatigable optimists who still believe that so-called progressive politics still has a future in this country; or they are people who exist at a comfortable distance from Lahore and have no idea of the long-reigning monotony in the city.

For those who cannot escape Lahore and have fallen off the progressive cocoons, Imran Khan has already livened up the proceedings with his new spell. He has displayed his growing street power in Karachi as well as in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Punjab, which he should be very keen on impacting, he has spun an impressive show in Multan and is now set to take his campaign to Faisalabad.

What is more, he has sought to fulfil the long-voiced demand of a programme from him by coming up with a 100-day crash plan on reforming Pakistan. In the tradition of a true guerilla fighter, the keyword that sustains his advance is withdrawal.

Mr Khan says that should his party come to power he is going to focus on political approaches to end the war on terror. Force will be the last option. Indeed, his party, the PTI, would withdraw from the war on terror and declare a war on corruption instead. The troops would be withdrawn from Fata and Mr Khan's favourite grand jirga would be constituted to bring in peace.

The government will be inclined to say that this is exactly how they viewed the Fata situation before they were compelled to employ force as a last resort. Imran Khan goes beyond this when he promises such drastic steps as the setting up of a commission to probe rights violations in Fata and Swat, cancellation of visas of all foreign security operators, not to speak of a ban on drone attacks and a blockage of Nato supplies.

Within the first 100 days of power, Imran Khan promises an independent accountability commission under a new anti-corruption law; dismantling of sugar, cement, fertiliser cartels; a Pakistan infrastructure fund contributed to by overseas Pakistanis; reduction in indirect taxation on fuel; end to deficit financing; elimination of the power circular debt and hawala transactions.

If not an exact opposite of the current government policies, Imran Khan's 100 is anti-status quo and as ambitious a vote-catcher as one can hope for. In a nutshell, it reads like a collection of all the pro-people, anti-establishment stories the journalists have a bias for in times such as these. It is reflective of the sentiments of large sections of Pakistanis. This is not about power, at least not as yet, and not about whether Mr Khan has the ability or the right conditions to change. He may not be exactly poised for a landslide in elections — he is popular enough and his calls are being reciprocated sufficiently by the public for other politicians to make adjustments accordingly. It does serve as a serious enough agent that is seeking to break the monotony of Pakistani politics.

You have to be permanently living in Lahore since the Zia days to realise how desperately some of us crave diversity and an anti-thesis to the present theme. It's been the same faces, the same politics in which the Sharifs have been — sometimes only academically — pitted against the PPP.

Nawaz Sharif is not even an MNA. Yet he gets to chair in Lahore's own imposing 'Nine Zero' meetings that are called to decide important matters of the government. He was back at 'Nine Zero' Mall last week, to oversee some corrective work of very basic nature on the famed but somewhat stalled Walled City Project.

This omnipresence of the Sharifs obviously has its merits. For beginners, the old dictum that you could never accuse the Sharifs of idleness still holds true as whatever takes place in the province by way of governance carries the Sharif stamp on it. Boring stuff, ultimately.

Imran Khan injects an element of the expected-unexpected in the air. Those who have been on the tour before Mr Khan, like the passengers on the Islamic Jamhoori Ittehad's establishment-driven bandwagon, realise what miracles on-way hospitality from the right quarters can lead to. Consequently, there is visible anxiety in the Raiwind camp, which in a recent statement, considered Mr Khan to be worthy enough of playing for President Zardari.

This is not about power but about something that is more profound and permanent. The increasing discussion about Imran Khan and his politics as an option signals the establishment of new benchmarks in Pakistani politics upon which the future moderates and those who are not in this category will be judged.

Through a long process, the right has gained ground in the country as it has elsewhere in the world. It is now looking to consolidate. With past progressives failing to listen to pro-people stories crying out to be heard, it may essentially turn out to be a fight among the right to decide who gets the consolidation contract. From among their ranks will emerge leaders who we are going to address as forward-looking.

Imran Khan is an important player in the game who is in need of partners. He once had a team even if he was not known for carrying out expert plans. Today he has got a plan and should go looking for a team.

The writer is Dawn's Resident Editor in Lahore. (By arrangement with Dawn)

***************************************

THE TRIBUNE

OPED

INDIA SHOULD BE PROACTIVE IN PROMOTING REGIONAL PEACE

IRFAN HUSAIN

IN Karachi's Keamari harbour, near Baba and Bhit islands and close to the Yacht Club, is a macabre sight: scores of wooden fishing boats are quietly rotting away. A few are still riding high in the water, but most are partly submerged, their hulls and masts tilting at crazy angles.

This watery graveyard contains the life-savings of hundreds of Indian fishermen who were unfortunate enough to cross the unmarked coastal boundary between Indian and Pakistani waters. Captured and locked up, they languish in jail, sometimes for years. Their release in exchange for Pakistani fishermen in Indian jails for a similar 'crime' depends on the state of relations between the two countries.

The rotting boats and the imprisoned fishermen are apt metaphors for the situation in which India and Pakistan find themselves. Frozen in their rigid position of no-war, no-peace, both countries take out their frustration on the weakest of the weak.

As the recent meetings between Indian and Pakistani officials showed yet again, there is little stomach for a sane and peaceful resolution of their outstanding problems on either side. They go through the rituals of pretending to negotiate, knowing full well that no agreements will emerge at the end of the exercise. There is simply no political will in either Islamabad or New Delhi to cut the Gordian knot.

And yet, there was a time when there was hope for a breakthrough. Under Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, an agreement over the absurd squabble over the Siachen glacier was reached. Sadly, the Indian establishment torpedoed it before the ink had dried. And Musharraf, for all his flaws, as well his responsibility for the Kargil folly, genuinely tried to solve the festering Kashmir dispute, and presented some out-of-the-box ideas, including putting the UN resolutions aside. He was snubbed by India for his pains.

So, if Pakistan, with its huge security problems, its dysfunctional civilian government and its prickly, blinkered generals, can make serious attempts at mending fences with its neighbour, why can't India? After all, with its overwhelming military superiority, its rapidly expanding economy and the goodwill it has globally, it should be brimming with self-confidence. So, what excuse does India have for not being more proactive and imaginative in promoting regional peace?

The truth is that somehow, despite its economic and military clout, India continues to punch well below its weight in the region. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said recently that 25 per cent of all Bangladeshis hated India, he might have been undiplomatic, but he was saying something everybody knows. Here is a much smaller neighbour that owes India its very existence as an independent state, and yet anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh are rampant.

Or take Sri Lanka, an even smaller neighbour. In the closing stages of the civil war two years ago, tens of thousands of Tamils were massacred, and India could do nothing to persuade Colombo to desist. This is despite the fact that the citizens of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu were convulsed at the sight of their cousins being slaughtered.

The only time India attempted to intervene in the conflict was when it sent a peace-keeping force to the island. These soldiers were pulled out after three years following heavy fighting with the LTTE. Since then, India remained a bystander while Pakistan and China armed and trained government forces. So, although India is helping Sri Lanka with various infrastructure projects, it has very little influence in Colombo.

Or take Nepal, another of India's neighbours that has gone though a long and bloody civil war. Although the land-locked nation's economy is almost completely integrated with India's, New Delhi was unable to intervene in the civil war, or in the long political crisis that has paralysed the country.

Even within India, the expanding Naxalite insurrection, as well as other separatist movements in Mizoram and Kashmir, highlight the establishment's lack of imagination and self-confidence. These problems have been around for decades, and continue to get worse rather than better. Surely some creative ideas ought to have been put forward by now. But force seems to be the only answer New Delhi is capable of.

India's successful entrepreneurs have seized opportunities created by globalisation, as well as by their country's growing middle class and its trained manpower. Indian politicians, diplomats and civil servants, on the other hand, retain their old mindset from an era when India was just another developing nation. Instead of using its expanded hard and soft power to have a greater say in the region, India appears to be a timid player on the world stage.

In order to translate its growing strength into influence, India need not be the bully on the block, as it has so often seemed to its smaller neighbours. Given its resources and expertise in many fields, it can reach out to extend a helping hand. It can and should expand trade, and encourage its entrepreneurs to invest in the region.

The regional organisation, Saarc, must be reactivated to become the platform for expanding regional trade and travel it was designed to be. But for any of this to happen, India needs to break out of its timorous frame of mind and think big. Before it can be seriously accepted as a major global player, it has to sort out its regional disputes.

Whenever I have suggested that India can afford to be magnanimous as it is so much more powerful than Pakistan, I am routinely attacked by Indian readers. But what's the alternative? Clearly, Pakistan's generals are too insecure to take the initiative, and its shaky civilian government is in no position to take up from where Musharraf left off.

However, both Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have expressed their desire to normalise relations with India.Somehow, the political elites as well as the media in both countries are quite content with the status quo. They seem to think that it is perfectly normal to stay locked in a confrontation for decades when the rest of the world is moving ahead. And while India has done phenomenally well in recent years, the majority of its population still lives in abject poverty.

A few years ago, I was at a conference in Colombo to discuss the Kashmir problem, and a retired Pakistani general said: "India is a big country with a small heart." It is high time Indians proved him wrong.

(By arrangement with Dawn)

***************************************

******************************************************************************************BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

DOUBLE MINT

DO NOT DEVALUE THE CENTRAL BANK AS AN INSTITUTION

Next week the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will come forward with its quarterly review of the economy and of monetary policy. In less than two months, the tenure of the incumbent RBI governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, comes to an end. Those who have built India's great institutions have believed for a long time that decisions pertaining to appointment to high offices should always be taken several months ahead of the actual appointment. But the Indian government has become habituated to last-minute announcements. Hopefully, in this case, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will take a view and make an announcement about Dr Subbarao's tenure within this week so that the RBI can take a view about the economy and monetary policy with a greater degree of certainty in the week after.

There has been an avoidable and ill-informed public debate on the merits and demerits of giving an incumbent governor an extension. Rather than depending on political whim and ministerial discretion alone, it would be helpful, both for the RBI as an institution and for policy making in the country, if government's prerogative on such matters is combined with some professional criteria. In fact, such criteria have emerged in the process of selecting RBI governors over the past two decades. With few exceptions, most central bank governors have come from the limited pool of deputy governors or secretaries in the Union finance ministry and have been given a five-year tenure. It is understandable that the government should regard experience on Mint Road or in North Block as the minimum qualification for the job, and would seek policy stability through fixed-term appointments.

At this time, the question is a more limited one of whether the incumbent should get an extension of term or not, rather than who should constitute the pool of potential candidates. On this question, history offers an answer. In the past half century most governors, with few exceptions, have served a five-year term. Indeed, some of the best-known governors who were able to leave their mark on the institution and policy were given five-year appointments. In the more recent past, with the singular exception of S Venkitaramanan, every other governor has been given either a five-year term or an extension of two or three years after an initial three-year term.

Against this background, and in the current context, it is only to be expected that Dr Subbarao would get an extension and be allowed to serve a five-year term. It has been reported that three former RBI governors have taken the view that a central bank governor should have a five-year term. If so, the die is cast. There is no reason the government should ignore such sage advice.

The point has been made in the media that the Union finance ministry has opted for single-term appointments for financial sector regulators like the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and so on. It is useful to reiterate the point this newspaper has repeatedly made that the RBI governor is not just another financial sector regulator like the Sebi chief. Indeed, the central bank governor in all modern economies occupies a unique position in the policy apparatus and that uniqueness should continue; more so at a time when India needs to preserve and protect institutions of governance against the rising tide of arbitrariness and declining quality of available manpower. The government must do nothing that devalues the institution of the central bank.

***************************************

BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

NEW CLIMATE IN AUSTRALIA

THE DOMESTIC CARBON TAX INITIATIVE SHOULD BE WELCOMED

Better late than never. Australia, the world's biggest per capita polluter, and yet a hesitant signatory to the Kyoto protocol on climate change, has now mooted a domestic carbon pricing regime that can put the country on the track to clean development. Its top 500 environment-polluting industries will have to pay a carbon tax from July next year which, three years later, will be replaced by a market-based emission trading system on the lines of the European Union's internal emission trading scheme. Part of the revenue generated from the carbon levy will be used to help businesses and industries adapt to the new system and switch to cleaner forms of energy. Though the new plan is laudable, it remains to be seen how it will be implemented. Apart from the lack of a political consensus on the move, and opposition from some key industry groups, the country's dismal record in combating global warming does not inspire much confidence. It is worth recalling that Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's own Labour Party had opposed the carbon tax in its election manifesto. She is forced to go in for it now, largely owing to post-election compulsions of running a minority government with support from independents and, more significantly, the Greens party that had made climate plan a precondition for its support.

Australia, along with the US, had refused to accept the Kyoto accord in 2002. Though it ratified it later in 2008, it settled for an extremely soft emission target of limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the 2008-12 period to 108 per cent of 1990 levels. This essentially meant the country could legitimately raise, instead of cutting down, its total emission load by eight per cent. Australia is the most vulnerable country to the adverse impacts of climate change. Apart from being the world's driest inhabited continent, the bulk of its land mass is highly prone to droughts and extreme heat. Climate change is making itself felt in Australia with the gradual rise of average surface temperature since 1910. Business as usual will mean another 1°C rise by 2030 which will, in turn, lead to an increase in the frequency of droughts and extreme heat events. It is, therefore, good that Australia has come up with a climate plan that is in tune with the global trend of greater reliance on domestic initiatives to combat global warming; all the more so since there is no sign of any agreement on a binding and target-based successor to the Kyoto protocol, which expires next year. Even developing countries, including the ones developing fast like India and China which were not obliged to take on emission cuts under Kyoto, have now set their own internal targets for emission control. Australia, with its per head emissions being nearly 17 times that of India and four and a half times that of China, needs to do much more on this front.

.***************************************

BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

SECESSION OF THE SUCCESSFUL

DOES RISING OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT SHOW INDIA INC HAS ARRIVED OR IS LEAVING?

SANJAYA BARU

Last month the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) put out the latest data on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India. The liberalisation of restrictions on Indian investment abroad has helped Indian companies acquire assets worldwide. Investments by domestic Indian companies in overseas joint ventures and wholly-owned subsidiaries were estimated at $16.7 billion in 2010-11, up from $10.3 billion in 2009-2010 (see table). Total outward FDI in the decade 2000-2010 has been estimated to be $80 billion.

The RBI report notes, "The policy which was evolved as one of the strategies for export promotion and strengthening economic linkages with other countries has been streamlined significantly in scope and size, especially after the introduction of FEMA [Foreign Exchange Management Act] in June 2000. In the post-2003 period, the policy has enabled corporate entities and registered partnerships to invest in bona fide businesses abroad, currently to the extent of 400 per cent of their net worth, under the automatic route."

OUTWARD FDI FROM INDIA (April 2007 to May 31, 2011) ($ million)
Period	Financial commitment
April-March	Equity	Loan	Guarantee issued	Total
2007-2008	11,269.18	2,718.02	6,959.96	20,947.16
2008-2009	10,732.26	3,329.00	3,104.88	17,166.14
2009-2010	6,763.27	3,620.19	7,603.79	17,987.25
2010-2011	9,351.77	7,346.89	27,230.52	43,929.18
April to May 2011	731.41	3,193.24	1,166.23	5,090.88
As reported by Authorised Dealers in Form ODI

In terms of destination, the main target countries for such OFDI have been the United States, United Kingdom, Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands and British Virgin Islands, with Africa becoming an increasingly popular destination. The manufacturing sector reportedly occupied the largest share in India's OFDI in 2009-10.

The website of India Brand Equity Fund hails this as a sign of India Inc's growing global clout. It adds, "Indian companies, which are well experienced in dealing with overseas M&A [merger and acquisition] markets, are now back on the acquisition trail, with 40 per cent of those planning an acquisition in the next three years expecting their deals to be in foreign countries." It quotes Mahad Narayanamoni, M&A partner with Grant Thornton India, as saying, "This reflects a coming of age for Indian businesses."

According to Mr Narayanamoni, "Indian companies are now more experienced in dealing with overseas M&A transactions and are considered serious contenders for acquiring global businesses. Acquiring global brands, gaining access to overseas markets and leveraging new technologies for Indian markets are some of the key drivers for outbound acquisitions by Indian companies."

Without doubt, some of the OFDI represents export-promoting investment, and helps acquire new technology and new managerial skills, promote both corporate and country brands, secure access to raw materials and establish mutually beneficial relations of interdependence. Thus, rising OFDI represents a welcome trend.

However, it is worth asking how much of the spurt in OFDI represents the "coming of age of Indian business", and how much of it is a "flight of capital" from, as Indian business leaders are increasingly complaining, a worryingly difficult domestic business environment.

The man who built India's best (Hyderabad) and biggest (Delhi) airports, G M Rao, is busy scouting for business outside India, after bagging contracts in Turkey and Maldives. One of India's auto czars, Venu Srinivasan, has been reportedly following in the footsteps of his sambandhi, N R Narayana Murthy, taking part of his business to China. Mr Murthy inaugurated the Shanghai campus of Infosys earlier this year, while Anil Ambani has been accessing funds and equipment from China. India's rising corporate stars – Analjit Singh, Sunil Mittal and Gautam Thapar, to name a few – are spending an increasing amount of their time managing business abroad, since growth outside India seems easier to achieve. More than half of Ratan Tata's business today is outside India and Shashi Ruia says his children want to take more of the family business away from India.

Has Indian business "arrived" globally, or is it "departing" from India? Is this a new "secession of the successful", coming a generation after the flight of professional middle class talent that created the so-called global Indian diaspora?

Ironically, it comes two decades after India Inc got worried about the return of foreign capital to India. In 1993, one of the doyens of traditional Indian business, Hari Shankar Singhania, joined hands with Rahul Bajaj, L M Thapar, M C Arunachalam, Jamshyd Godrej, B K Modi and C K Birla to write a note to the P V Narasimha Rao government seeking a "level playing field" on which they could compete more effectively with multinationals.

Mr Singhania refutes the charge that this group, dubbed the "Bombay Club", was seeking protection from external competition. Instead, he says, quoting from their note of 1993 (this writer has a copy of the original note), "The aim of Indian industry is to be as competitive as any of its peers in the world. Its vision is that it becomes multinational, in fact a world player. This can be achieved by concerted action by Industry and Government. Therefore, the range of economic reforms must be widened and its pace accelerated."

That, indeed, seems to have happened. But today Indian industry is fleeing home because of what it sees as the "drift in policy" and the "paralysis of decision-taking" in government. Indian business seeks neither protection nor government subsidy, says Mr Singhania, but an environment of greater trust and confidence in which it can take long-term investment decisions and speed up existing projects. It wants an end to what it sees as an environment of uncertainty, drift and growing hostility towards business and enterprise.

As the original manifesto of the so-called Bombay Club put it so eloquently two decades ago: "Indian Industry has been constantly urging for liberal business environment and welcomes the economic reforms which are directed towards integrating the Indian economy with the global economy. This will secure faster growth which alone will generate employment, increase exports and give substance to social objectives."

Is anyone listening?

***************************************

BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

LAND IS LIVELIHOOD, DON'T FORGET

IT IS A CHALLENGE TO ACCOMMODATE THE VIEW THAT THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO GROWTH AND WELL-BEING

SUNITA NARAIN

My article about people fighting against Posco has brought various responses in the past fortnight ("Posco: take the land but give life", July 4). They call for clarification and further discussion. The question is about the value of current livelihoods of the people in coastal Orissa. Is earning from betel nut farming being exaggerated to reinforce the view that people are fighting projects because they are better off today? The equally valid question then is, why are the people so apparently poor "if they are earning Rs 10 lakh to Rs 17 lakh per hectare each year", as I had said?

Questions arise that speak of our inability to understand two things: one, what makes people, poor in our eyes, oppose growth we believe in; and two, what makes people poor?

First, an explanation: my colleague Sayantan Bera, who travelled across the Jagatsinghpur region of Orissa to meet villagers resisting the Posco takeover, will tell you the problem is our misinterpretation of reality. Land ownership in this area is not measured in hectares but in decimals — one hectare is equal to 250 decimals. Most people own some 10 to 30 decimals of land, which is 1/25 or 1/30 of a hectare. So, based on the profit estimate I gave in my previous article, a household earns Rs 40,000 to 70,000 per hectare for the land it holds — not a lot of money if it is seen in this way and certainly not enough to make them middle-class rich.

But the important issue is that this earning is "good" enough for them to fight till death the acquisition of their land. The reason is that this money comes on a monthly basis, and comes year after year. The earning of Rs 3,000 to 4,000 every month per household takes people marginally above the wretchedly low poverty line (also called the starvation line). But this earning comes regularly – it is their subsistence – and, more importantly, it gives them economic security year after year.

It is this equation with land that we find difficult to understand. I saw this when I visited other poor regions that are resisting industrial growth, which comes with our promise of progress. In Nimalapedu village of forested, tribal Andhra Pradesh, I was confronted with the same confusion: a poor village with no access to electricity, housing or other signs of economic wealth had fought, and won, against the calcite mining project of the powerhouse of Birla. Then I visited Kalinganagar, where 13 tribals had been killed fighting against a steel project. The question "why" was even more incomprehensible when you considered the people fighting change were poor — they lived in mud-and-thatch huts, which would be exchanged for brick houses; they lived under risk of rainfall and crop failure, which they would give up for cash compensation. The rainfed agricultural fields with low produce will be exchanged for houses in colonies built by the company for resettlement. From our eyes, they looked impoverished and marginal. In our view, the future looked only brighter.

These tribal farmers are different from the relatively prosperous farmers in Gujarat, fighting against the takeover of their land and waterbody for the Nirma cement plant. But even in the Nirma case, where farmers are more linked to the markets and more capable of "adapting" to new industrial economic futures, the livelihood option that land provides is valued intensely. It is this difference between them and us we cannot comprehend.

Everywhere I have been, people resisting takeover have told me that "land is their mother. They cannot sell it". This is a sentiment that most of us (literate and urban Indians) cannot grasp. For us, land is property, which we buy and sell, to suit our interest. We also cannot understand this obduracy because we do not understand the value of land-based occupations.

This is partly because for so long we have discounted the option of land-based livelihoods in our economic vision. We have only understood farmers are desperately poor, driven to suicide and migrating to cities. All this is true, but it is equally true that land-based occupations provide sustenance to millions. And if the voices coming from Jagatsinghpur, Nimalapadu and Kalinganagar and the scores of mutinies across the country are to be believed then this land-based occupation is still worth fighting for.

It is time we understood the struggle for land, water and forests as fight for livelihoods. If we do, we will deal with protesters with respect, giving them the right to decide whether to approve of the takeover of their land and asking them for the price they are willing to accept in return. I say this knowing that in our estimation the availability of land and water will be the biggest impediment to economic growth.

If we understand this connection then we will also learn to take the current occupations more seriously. We will then work to improve economic returns from the land so that it can compete with the returns from profitable and economic activities. I don't believe the challenge is to pit one economic future against another. But it is certainly a challenge to accommodate the view that there are many ways to growth and well-being. The aim is to get there. Together.

sunita@cseindia.org

***************************************

BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

THE CHARGE OF THE SMALL TOWNS

POLICYMAKERS NEED TO FOCUS ON SMALLER TOWNS TO REDUCE URBAN POVERTY

N CHANDRA MOHAN

The discourse on poverty in India focuses mostly on its rural dimension because the vast majority of poor come from the countryside. However, with faster growth since the economic reforms of the 1990s, a slow but persistent urbanisation of poverty – a shift from its concentration in rural to urban areas – has been observed by researchers. Urban India accounted for 26 per cent of the poor in 2004-05, according to National Sample Survey data. Economists have also noted that although consumption expenditures have grown faster in urban than rural areas, the post-reform period, 1993-94 to 2004-05, saw a slower pace of urban poverty reduction when compared to the pre-reform period of 1983 to 1993-94.

Peter Lanjouw and Rinku Murgai of the World Bank presented their ongoing research on "Urban Growth and Rural Poverty in India: Evidence from National Sample Survey and Poverty Map Data" at a workshop organised by the Centre for Policy Research. "Unpacking" the urban poverty numbers, they systematically found higher poverty ratios in smaller towns (population of less than 50,000) than big cities (1 million-plus): in 1983, the poverty ratio was as high as 50 per cent in smaller towns – higher than even rural poverty – when compared to 29 per cent in big cities as against the urban average of 42.3 per cent. The same picture also obtains in 1993-94 and 2004-05.

Although urbanisation of poverty, thus, appears to be a small-town phenomenon, Lanjouw and Murgai's data also show that small towns led the charge on poverty reduction in urban India since the reforms period.

Even if the overall pace of reduction that took place in urban areas was relatively slower than before, the main contributor to this reduction has been small and medium towns rather than big cities. However, their finding of a higher incidence of poverty in smaller towns, including the changes over time, has been observed by others as well, like Himanshu and Amitabh Kundu of the Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dipak Mazumdar and Sandip Sarkar at the Institute of Human Development in Delhi.

The big question, naturally, is what aspect of the post-reform process is responsible for this. Mazumdar and Sarkar say this possibly stems from a trickle-down effect powered by the decentralisation of non-agricultural activities to the smaller towns. Alternatively, smaller towns might have enjoyed stronger growth during the post-reform period due to commercialisation of agriculture. Himanshu, for his part, favours a not-so-different explanation in terms of the growing specialisation of activities in urban India. The bigger cities, thus, appear to be specialising in services, while manufacturing activities are being shifted to the small and medium-sized towns, enabling these to contribute more to poverty reduction.

Lanjouw and Murgai take a different track in focusing on the impact of urban development on rural poverty in the post-reform period. Their work illustrates that urban consumption growth contributes to growth in the rural non-farm economy, and thereby to rural poverty reduction.

They speculate that the link from urban development to rural poverty reduction might have been stronger if urban poverty reduction had been centred on India's smaller towns and cities. It is in such small towns and cities that the bulk of the urban poor are concentrated, and these same towns and cities are also more tightly connected to surrounding rural areas. This pattern has also been observed in urban Brazil.

The policy implications from such work for poverty reduction strategies are obvious. Why have policymakers bypassed small towns altogether in big-ticket expenditure programmes? For instance, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and Bharat Nirman have a rural focus, while the National Urban Renewal Mission concentrates on big cities. Clearly, there appears to be a policy bias towards the provision of infrastructure to metropolises than any effort to target small towns. Since the urban poor are concentrated more in the small towns, there are strong normative grounds to focus on the latter and also for the instrumental role they play in reducing rural poverty argue Lanjouw and Murgai.

Though the dynamism of small towns in reducing urban poverty since the 1990s is undeniable, a complicating factor is that the incidence of joblessness has also gone up in them when compared to the medium-sized towns and cities. The rate of unemployment on the basis of current daily status – which captures the average volume of unemployment in a day or intermittent unemployment – for males has increased sharply from 7.2 per cent in 1993-94 to 8.7 per cent 2004-05 in the small towns. In contrast, joblessness rose less sharply in metros over this period. Isn't it possible that while some of the bigger small towns have reduced poverty, a growing proportion of them at the lower end are also suffering? In other words, small town India is perhaps declining in relative importance over time. This writer's doctoral dissertation on Aspects of Dualism in India's Urban Labour Market had argued that smaller towns have indeed witnessed a decay of artisan activity such as handloom weaving, resulting in growing joblessness.

From the Ivory Tower makes research from the academic world accessible to our readers

***************************************

BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

BUFFALO ON THE TRACKS

OR WHY INDIAN RAILWAYS URGENTLY NEEDS TO BE COMMERCIALISED

VINAYAK CHATTERJEE

Drawing-room chatteratti had been quite dismissive when Lalu Prasad was appointed railway minister. He was not a PLU ("people like us") and, with a fodder scam and Bihar-down-the-tube personal history-sheet, seemed hardly likely to do any good.

As the turnaround story started gathering momentum and successive rail Budgets started presenting glowing financials and operating ratios, the scepticism started getting replaced with grudging acceptance that something good was indeed happening. But this feeling was also laced with a degree of suspicion that the turnaround was no "real" improvement but an astute play on increased axle-loads and clever rejigging of commodity freight rates.

The Indian Railways did transform from near bankruptcy to post a Rs 25,000-crore annual cash surplus in 2008. Considering that the railways is one of the world's largest state-owned enterprises with around 1.4 million employees, over 63,000 km of network that operate 13,000 trains every day, this was indeed a phenomenal achievement. One also has to take into account that it was achieved in just four years — between 2005 and 2008. Lalu is said to have remarked: "My mother always told me not to handle a buffalo by its tail, but always catch it by its horns. And I have used that lesson in everything in my life, including the railways."

It is also very clear that post-Lalu, under Mamata Banerjee's watch and thereafter, the Indian Railways has once again lost its sizzle, and turnaround economics have faded away to be replaced with numbers pregnant with serious apprehensions. With Banerjee moving to Writers' Buildings, there were some feeble attempts at wresting control of the railway ministry with a Congress-appointed minister. Planning Commission and PMO officials have also been circling overhead like hungry hawks trying to "take charge" and give direction.

The Congress wanted to take over the ministry at a time when the Indian Railways' operating ratio (the money spent to earn Rs 100) has not been encouraging. While in FY09 the operating ratio was 90.5, in FY10 and FY11 the numbers were 94.7 and 92.1 respectively. The funds balance for FY11 fell from the budgeted Rs 5,062 crore to Rs 3,100 crore. The current fiscal has witnessed a further fall of another 56 per cent to Rs 1,365 crore. Passenger fares are where they were eight years ago, but freight rates were raised six times in 2010-11 itself. Due to this differential treatment, the fare-freight ratio of the Indian Railways is a minimal 0.3 against 1.2 in China and 1.4 in South Korea. Struggling to make ends meet, the railways have also demanded a doubling of gross budgetary support from the government of Rs 39,600 crore in 2011-12 against a year ago.

The Planning Commission has asked the railways to draw up a roadmap to implement specific suggestions during the 12th Five-Year Plan, which begins on April 1, 2012. The key suggestions include increasing passenger fares, minimising cross-subsidisation between passenger and freight earnings, and setting up an independent tariff regulator. The Commission has formed a working group headed by the Railway Board chairman for this purpose. The group will submit its report by August 31. The report will later be considered by a steering committee of the Planning Commission for inclusion in the 12th Plan document.

We now have a new railway minister in Dinesh Trivedi from Trinamool Congress, a new chairman of the railway board in Vinay Mittal, and the public and media screaming blue murder about the safety record and governance standards of the Indian Railways. This new round of musical chairs at Rail Bhawan is expected to lead to a fresh round of jousting to see how the power equations play out between Didi calling the shots remotely, her minister toeing her line, and the PMO and Planning Commission hawks trying to do right by the country. Between Lalu and Mamata, in spite of the cycle of ups and downs operationally, the real issues relating to institutional and structural reform have just not been addressed. This subject was brilliantly dealt with in the epochal Rakesh Mohan Committee Report on railways submitted in February, 2002. Though the railway establishment has distanced itself from it, few can argue against its recommendations that call for a separation of roles into policy, regulatory and management functions.

The Committee Report had pointed out with much anguish that: "Indian Railways over the past decade has fallen into a vicious cycle of under investment, mis-allocation of scarce resources, increasing indebtedness, poor customer service and rapidly deteriorating economics. The root cause of the decade of decline is an unstable political system increasingly driven by short-term political compulsions."

The privatisation of rail networks, infrastructure and services has been a controversial issue throughout the world. For instance, in the UK, serious objections were raised against the privatisation of British Rail in the 1990s. Treading carefully, the Rakesh Mohan Committee advocated "commercialisation", rather than outright privatisation. It, then, went on to suggest that the Indian Railways must eventually be corporatised into the Indian Railways Corporation (IRC). The government would need to set up an Indian Rail Regulatory Authority (IRRA), which would be necessary to regulate IRC's activities as a monopoly supplier of rail services. IRRA was necessary to distance IRC from the government.

The IRC would be governed by a reconstituted Indian Railways Executive Board (IREB). The government of India should be in charge of setting policy direction, and constituting IRRA and IREB.

The report suggested that once the broad framework of a proposed restructuring is accepted, the government of India and ministry of railways would need to set up a special task force to frame new legislation enabling a new organisational framework. This task force would have to start operations with a thorough review of the Indian Railways Act and the Indian Railway Board Act. New legislation would need to be drafted so that it:

Mandated corporatisation of the Indian Railways into the IRC

Permitted a revamp of the railway board

Redefined the relationship between the government and a revamped IREB

Provided for exemption from taxation – excise, sales tax, etc – for the period of transition, say, five to seven years.

Permitted private participation in railway operations.

Facilitated the induction of personnel form outside the railways

Mandated the subsidisation of social responsibilities to the extent of funds provided by the government

Set up a social safety net to take care of surplus labour.

The task ahead has been very clearly spelt out.

Learning from Lalu's mother, the time has come to take the Railway Reform bull by the horns, not the tail!

The author is Chairman of Feedback Infrastructure. These views are personal. vinayak.chatterjee@feedbackinfra.com

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

BUSINESS LINE

OPINION

GROWING INDIA, SHRINKING BHARAT

As higher urbanisation has long-term consequences for governance, the latest numbers should serve as a heads-up to the planners.

More Indians are moving into towns now. According to the 2011 Census, the urban population grew by 90.99 million between 2001 and 2011. The absolute increase in the rural population over this period was 90.47 million. Put differently, urban population grew by 31.8 per cent, a little over two-and-a-half times the corresponding decadal rise of 12.18 per cent for the rural population. The speeding up in the growth rate of urbanisation is marginal — 31.8 per cent, against 31.4 per cent over the previous period. In terms of States, Tamil Nadu leads, with 48.5 per cent of its population living in urban areas. (Kerala is at 47.72 per cent, Maharashtra at 45.23 per cent and Gujarat at 42.58 per cent.)

This is an inflexion point and it could become important in several ways. Some of these are a cause for concern; others for celebration. A major worry ought to be the fact that the number of net buyers of food in the country will be higher than the number of producers. This is bound to put upward pressure on food prices, if there is no improvement in agriculture productivity. Since that seems a distant prospect, in view of the fragmentation and sub-division of holdings, and since there is no move to amend the laws that govern property succession, India will soon have to import food on a scale similar to China. Very few countries experiencing rapid economic growth have been able to avoid this predicament. They have all been countries with favourable land-people ratios. On the positive side, however, is the fact that cities are excellent engines of growth. Economists don't agree much on what the drivers of growth are, but on one thing they do concur: urbanisation. The agglomeration factor brings down costs all around and this helps firms grow. Some may argue that while these benefits are mostly private, the costs of meeting urban infrastructure needs are public. While this may be true in an accounting sense, the overall economic benefits can hardly be gainsaid. There is also the benefit that accrues to the financial sector, which is able to tap into savings and make them available for investment much more easily. For over 40 years now India has been trying to take banking to the rural areas, with not much success. An increased rate of urbanisation will reduce the pressure on banks to go unprofitably into rural areas.

Higher urbanisation also has long-term consequences for governance. There will not only have to be an increase in the number of urban bodies, such as municipalities, the way in which they raise funds will also change. In sum, India is in for a new set of governance problems, both in terms of structures and in terms of systems and manpower, which it is currently ill-equipped to handle. That is why the latest numbers should serve as a heads-up to the Government.

***************************************

BUSINESS LINE

OPINION

MEANING OF A 'CROP HOLIDAY' THIS KHARIF

K. V. KURMANATH

Farmers over three lakh acres may not grow crops this kharif to protest against negative incomes. Yet, policymakers are unmoved.

Issues related to farmers do not generally get the same kind of attention as news related to food inflation. Take for example, the 'crop holiday' announced by farmers in Andhra Pradesh for this kharif season. Don't think that this phenomenon will be confined to Andhra Pradesh. Those leading the 'crop holiday' campaign have begun to talk to their peers in Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, asking them to go on a partial crop holiday as a mark of protest against net negative incomes.

These farmers belong neither to the rain-fed areas nor the drought-prone regions. They belong to the water-rich districts of East and West Godavari, Krishna and Nellore. The reason for not growing kharif crops is: it has become unviable. The cost of production is far higher than the returns they get.

The extent of area under crop holiday is not insignificant. Farmers' organisations have put it at three lakh acres! One may dismiss this, saying that it is just a fraction of the total arable land in the country. But when you convert acres into yields, it will certainly send a chill down your spine. At five tonnes an acre (two in kharif and three in rabi), the country is all set to lose 15 lakh tonnes this year!

If more farmers in Andhra Pradesh and other States join this new kind of protest, the extent of loss would be much higher and pose a serious threat to country's food security. More than the loss itself, the desperation in the farming community poses a long-term challenge.

SPIRALLING COSTS

A farmer posed a simple but pertinent question to Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture recently. "Why should I bother about country's food security, when my own financial security is not taken care of," he asked.

And he had good reason to say this. While the cost of production for an acre of paddy is Rs 19,050, returns are only Rs 19,575. If you add rental of Rs 6,000 and managerial costs of Rs 2,000, farmers end up with huge losses. In the absence of its own assessment mechanism, the CACP (Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices) depends on State bodies to collect information that, generally, becomes obsolete by the time it calculates cost of cultivation. According to the Confederation of Indian Farmers' Associations (CIFA), the data the Commission uses are three years old. The Commission used data of 2007-08 while calculating costs for 2010-11, resulting in a skewed picture.

As a result, instead of getting higher compensation to cover the increase in inflation and input costs, farmers end up incurring losses. Farmers are criticising the Government for not factoring in realistic changes, such as the steep increase in labour costs post NREGA.

During the peak of agricultural operations, labour costs could go up as high as Rs 350. And a 75-kg bag of paddy gives only Rs 700 income to farmers!

EXCESS RABI STOCKS

Overflowing stocks from the rabi crop have only added to their woes. Most farmers in the water-rich areas are saddled with 30 per cent of the produce from rabi still lying unsold. Asked whether permission to export will help them, they say they asked for it five months ago, when they were expecting a bumper crop. After dillydallying for so long, the Centre gave the permission only now.

The farmers would have been empowered with better bargaining capacity had the Government announced the same around the procurement season. "What's the use announcing it now? It will only help exporters and traders," a farmer says. Frustrated and disillusioned, farmers thought it best to skip a season rather than increase their debt and desperation. And that is why they are unwilling to withdraw their agitation. This has already had a cascading effect. Several thousand people who are directly and indirectly dependent on agriculture are not finding the jobs they get around this time. This, in fact, should have set off alarm bells. It, unfortunately, did not. It has not even acted as a pinprick to policymakers, both at the national and State levels.

IMMEDIATE EFFECTS

The problem deserves immediate attention, because it is not a problem that can wait. After suffering for several seasons, it occurred to the farmers that it makes sense (by not making losses) for them to skip a season. This mirrors a serious crisis in Indian agriculture. If the thinking in the water-rich areas is such, one can only imagine the plight of those farmers in rain-fed areas.

One can argue that this is just a protest and that farmers cannot afford to do this forever. Agreed. But this is a strong political statement by farmers, with serious implications for food security and employment in rural areas. This crisis is driving the youth away from agriculture and allied activity. You find almost no young people to carry out farming chores or to work in the fields. And this is certainly not going help the country as it braces to feed 140 crore people in 2026.

***************************************

BUSINESS LINE

OPINION

WALMART: LESSONS FROM THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE

CHITRA NARAYANAN

WalMex provides access to a larger market, but also puts pressure on its suppliers to improve their products' appeal and forces them to accept low prices relative to product appeal.

Should foreign direct investment in retail be allowed or not? Reams have been written on the possible ill-effects of allowing entry to giant retailers such as Walmart and Tesco. Equally, a great deal has been said about how it would give a boost to local manufacturers, improve the supply chain and so on.

Even as the debate simmers and the government dithers, here's a paper from Mexico that looks at the impact of Walmart's entry into Mexico on Mexican manufacturers of consumer goods.

In a study called Supplier Responses to Wal-Mart's Invasion of Mexico (NBER Working Paper No. 17204), Leonardo Iacovone, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, Wolfgang Keller, and James R. Tybout show how Walmart de Mexico (Walmex) provides access to a larger market. But, at the same time, it puts continuous pressure on its suppliers to improve their products' appeal; and it forces them to accept low prices relative to product appeal. Mexico opened its doors to foreign investors in 1986 and Walmart entered the country in 1991 through a joint venture with a major Mexican retailer. After six years of explosive growth, Walmart took majority control and by 2003, it had become Mexico's largest private employer.

Study model

What were the effects of this mercurial rise and ascendance? The authors have used something called an industrial evolution model.

Its distinctive feature is that a bag of heterogeneous producers can choose in every period whether to sell their output through Walmex or through traditional retailers.

Those who opt for Walmex reach a larger consumer base, but they have to accept Walmex's pricing schedule, and this generally leads to lower mark-ups.

The authors say their modelling exercise was informed by a series of interviews on the impact of Walmart's entry they conducted with Mexican firm representatives and industry experts.

Those interviewed frequently mentioned that Walmex's entry had considerably sharpened the distinction of high versus low performing firms. They also stated that among firms choosing to deal with Walmex, the productivity effects were often positive.

direct effects

According to the authors, simulations of the model also showed that the arrival of Walmex had separated potential suppliers into two groups — those with relatively high-appeal products and those with lower-appeal products — and that both reacted differently.

The former choose Walmex as their retailer, whereas those with lower-appeal products do not. "High-quality firms will invest in upgradation and innovation in order to sell their products through Walmex, while low-quality firms will not.

At the industry-level, the model predicts that productivity and the rate of innovation may increase, both because market shares are reallocated to the stronger firms and because within-firm performance improves," say the authors.

The regression results are strongest on sales and productivity. High quality firms sold more and became more productive in response to Walmex' FDI in Mexico, while low-quality firms lost ground in both dimensions.

The study results are less clear on pricing, where the authors admit their analysis does not yield a clear pattern. "Future work will have to clarify whether this finding is unique to the behaviour of Mexican plants or not; in the latter case the model will have to be modified so that the decision to sell through Walmex depends not only on quality, but also on additional factors, such as the specific geographic location of the supplier relative to both Walmex retail stores and Walmex distribution centres," they say.

Indirect effects

The study shows that trade and FDI liberalisation may also have important indirect effects. Not only did the FDI deregulation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) reshape the country's retail market by facilitating Walmart's entry into Mexico, it also had a major impact on the upstream manufacturing industries.

On the retail front, Walmex acted as a catalyst for good business practices in the sector. Following its lead, the industry modernised its warehousing, distribution and inventory management.

On the supply chain front, Walmex not only introduced the system of channelling deliveries from suppliers through centralised warehouses, it also required delivery trucks to have appointments and drivers to carry standard identification cards. Audits, fines and quality standards were introduced.

Thanks to these changes, there was a significant decline in distribution costs faced by Mexican suppliers. Critically, Walmart's spectacular reach helped suppliers reach a larger segment of the Mexican market.

Negative fall-out

But against the positive effects, "one must weigh the capital losses imposed on entrepreneurs whose profitability is reduced, sometimes to the point of exit, and the welfare losses of consumers who preferred the brands driven out of the market," note the authors.

The relationships studied by the authors reveal that performance improvements in the goods-producing sector may have had their source in other sectors of the economy.

This is important because most formal analysis to date had focused on the goods producing sector, which is shrinking rapidly in many advanced economies while, in contrast, other sectors of the economy are much less understood.

So, the authors conclude, there may be high returns in identifying the exact reasons for changes in companies' performance in response to trade and FDI liberalisation.

***************************************

BUSINESS LINE

OPINION

THE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION

The ire and pessimism of people against politicians post the twin bomb blasts in Mumbai's diamond hub was best summed up by Praveen Mehta, a diamond trader of Zaveri Bazaar. Dubbing the police efforts to trace the culprits a waste of time and money, Mehta lamented: "We are still spending crores on terrorists such as Kasab and Afzal Guru, even after catching them red-handed. Both of them are in jail for years, safe and taken care of by the Government, while we Mumbaiites are become more and more vulnerable".

Austerity and discretion

One of the first casualties of the Finance Ministry's austerity drive seems to have been a media conference planned by Minister for External Affairs, S.M. Krishna, a day before the recent Cabinet reshuffle. The conference and lunch, first scheduled at the upmarket Taj Mahal hotel, was shifted to the Conference Hall of the Ministry and finally postponed, much to the chagrin of the journalists covering the MEA. While the press conference right on the eve of the Cabinet reshuffle suggested confidence that the Minister would not be affected, the abrupt changes in venue and the following cancellation left room for speculation.

Did the Finance Ministry's directive on austerity lead to the changes or is this a case of 'when being secure in a Ministry why pick up cudgels with the all-powerful Finance Ministry?'.

Divine blessings!

India's space ambitions seem to be getting a share of the blessings of Lord Balaji of Tirumala. The Chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Radhakrishnan, doesn't miss a chance to get the blessings of the Lord before a flight. Just the day before the launch of the PSLV C-17, he visited the abode of Lord Balaji at Tirupati and offered prayers.

His predecessors, Dr Madhavan Nair as well as Dr K. Kasturirangan, did much the same. Hopefully, the Lord will bless ISRO with successes in the GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) programme, which is floundering with more failures as of now.

Smoke , but no alarm!

For Richard D. Reidy, the American CEO of Progress Software, it was a maiden experience — lighting one oil lamp after another to mark the expansion of the IT facility at Cyberabad recently. He kept looking at the ceiling where fire alarms were placed, expecting the sensors to hoot.

The curious CEO asked his colleagues the significance of lighting the lamps. A photographer explained with a Sanskrit sloka 'tamasoma jyotir gamaya', which means, 'from darkness towards light'. The CEO's face lit up as he posed more queries, even as his gaze went up once more to see that the sensors did not react.

Old habits die hard

It's perhaps easier to shift Ministers from one Ministry to another than change their thinking. This is what a colleague realised recently. A veteran politician was shifted from one Ministry to another in the Cabinet reshuffle. However, his speech at a function turned out to be repeat of ditto what he had delivered in the earlier Ministry.

The only changes were names of the people being mentioned in the talk and at the event. If the Minister was asking one section of the industry in January to think global and become second to none internationally, he was parroting the same line even now.

***************************************

******************************************************************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

OVERHAUL POLICY

ALLOCATING TELECOM COMPANIES DEDICATED SPECTRUM IS THE ROOT PROBLEM

The Department of Telecom (DoT) and the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) are engaged in a protracted dispute over what to do with 74 of the telecom licences issued since 2006 that have delayed roll-out of services. In some cases, cancellation of licences are warranted, in some others, levy of penal fines called liquidated damages. A larger point of public interest gets drowned in the noise as these two squabble over who deserves what penal action: allocating dedicated spectrum to individual service providers is a stupid idea that a populous country like India cannot afford. Ironically, Trai keeps asserting in its letter to DoT that nonutilisation of allocated spectrum results in loss of revenue for the exchequer, parroting the nonsensical thesis popularised by the CAG report on 2G licences, that the primary purpose of radio waves is to generate revenue for the government. Human ingenuity has made it possible for electromagnetic waves to carry huge amounts of information, of which voice is just a small subset, and untrammelled access to that information has the capacity to greatly improve human life, creating new income, disseminating knowledge, sparking new ideas, improving education, health, politics, governance, social relationships and business. Realising this potential is the primary purpose of spectrum usage. Government revenue is a derived benefit. Policy and regulation must have and embody this vital clarity.

Trai is entirely right to urge that spectrum should not be hoarded by allottees who do not deploy it in service. Every Indian must have access to high-speed broadband. For that, all spectrum must be available to all carriers of data, complementing optical fibre networks at the last mile. The surest way to end hoarding and wastage of spectrum is to effect a paradigm shift in policy. Put all spectrum in a common pool, at the disposal of a handful of competing exchanges that individual operators access whenever a subscriber initiates a call. Real-time spectrum sharing and spectrum hopping technologies are available today. What is lacking is the vision and the will to transcend legacy practices and vested interest.

***************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

FAB FABLES

IF INDIA WANTS TO MAKE SEMICONDUCTORS, THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD

The government is calling upon technology providers and investors, both foreign and Indian, to set up semiconductor fabrication plants or fabs in India. The domestic demand for electronic hardware is indeed growing fast. It would be useful to insulate semiconductor prices from import volatility and a commercial fab at home could be game-changing for the manufacturing ecosystem. If our incentives and exhortations have not induced foreign or domestic investors to set up a fab in India, it would make sense for the Centre to set up an industrial fab on its own, rather than waste funds on yet more global solicitation. Several state-owned non-commercial fabs already supply defence and aerospace industries. What is required is to coagulate technology-intensive investments and skills and ramp up operations to a new level. The setting up of wafer fabs will rev up development of products, both upstream and downstream in the value chain, and so boost existing capability in very large scale integration (VSLI) design, probably to launch the next generation of information technology devices and knowledge systems.

However, setting up a top-of-the-line fab has multiple risks, apart from the obvious one of rapid technological obsolescence. A fab costs about $5 billion and to amoritise such investment over a five-year schedule — given the pace of technical change — costs well over $3 million a day. So world-class project implementation would be key, unmarred by, say land acquisition squabbles. Quality power, water supply and a dust-free environment are critical as well. All of which explain why global fab players are not keen to set up shop, yet. Also, the current domestic demand for semiconductor chips, at about $6.5 billion, does not quite seem to warrant a fully mature fab ecosystem. But the demand is expect to zoom to $50 billion by 2020. Hence the need for the centre to be forwardlooking and prioritise technology development, by setting up an industrial-scale fab. The public sector is meant for strategic industries, which today means not steel and hotels but fabs and telecom network equipment

***************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

WIVES OF OTHERS

A REALITY SHOW WANTS TO FOCUS ON WALL STREET WIVES. HOW ABOUT ITS DESI VERSION?

In what way would the wife of a bond trader be different from, say, the wife of an investment banker? Or for that matter, the wives of brokers, insurance salesmen or plumbers? What would their daily routines be like? Would their chores be materially different from yours? Would they suffer the same anxieties and make similar choices as millions of other women do? If you keep awake at night pondering these weighty questions, worry not, help — or at least a television reality show — will soon be at hand. Devon Fleming and her friend Sammi Mendenhall are trying to put together a show called Wall $treet Wives. This, we are told, will be shot in a reality format, featuring four or more women married — or formerly married — to men who've worked in "investment oriented" positions on Wall Street. A casting call has gone out and candidates are awaited.
But this bold project has its pitfalls. Ms Fleming is married to a banker and she'd previously pitched a show featuring, who else, but herself, to television networks and had been politely turned down. The channels apparently wanted the ladies to have cat fights on air and generally chew each other out. Such a scenario was anathema to Ms Fleming's sensibilities, and the project did not take off earlier. But this time the two ladies are determined and we look forward to the progress of her project with bated breath. With more than 500 channels on cable, India does not lack television content. Nor does it lack reality TV. For over a year, our markets have been choppy and directionless. Folks tired of staring at their Bloomberg or trading screens might be yearning for something else to watch. Like entertainment that mixes markets with other domestic concerns. So, how about a shot at Dalal Street Wives?

***************************************

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL SAMARTH

Google Analytics

Amazon Contextual Product Ads

Monday, July 18, 2011

EDITORIAL 18.07.11

SPIRALLING COSTS

EXCESS RABI STOCKS

IMMEDIATE EFFECTS

Study model

direct effects

Indirect effects

Negative fall-out