EDITORIAL 28.02.11

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Editorial

month february 28, edition 000766, collected & managed by durgesh kumar mishra, published by – manish manjul

 

Editorial is syndication of all daily- published newspaper Editorial at one place.

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THE PIONEER

1. LIBYA'S CRUEL DICTATOR
2. OPEN RETAIL TO FDI
3. UNBRIDGEABLE TRUST DEFICIT - BALBIR K PUNJ
4. UNCERTAIN FUTURE AWAITS EGYPT - BARRY RUBIN
5. DEMOCRACY MEANS HAMAS IN GAZA - DIAA HADID

THE TIMES OF INDIA

1. A NEW ENGAGEMENT
2. INFLATION TRADE-OFF
3. CORRUPTION: ON THE CUSP OF CHANGE - AJAY SHANKAR
4. 'FOLLOWING STANDARD INTERNATIONAL PROTOCOLS ENGENDERS  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE' - DEEP K DATTA-RAY
5. WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? - PRASHANT AGRAWAL

HINDUSTAN TIMES

1. YOU TAKE THE MAIN ROAD
2. HOLD DOWN THE LINES
3. TWEET TO CONFESS – ARPITA DAS
4. THE PRICE OF SURVIVAL - PANKAJ VOHRA
5. LET SOME FRESH AIR IN - YOUSUF SAEED

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

1. TOTAL RECALL
2. CAIRO CALLING
3. STANDING GROUND
4. THE SILVER BULLET OF REFORM - MK VENU
5. DAYS OF DOWNLOADS - SHUBHRA GUPTA
6. THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD ON - SUSHILKUMARMODI
7. THREE MEN AND A BURNING QUESTION - INDER MALHOTRA
8. CHECK THE PATIENT, NOT JUST THE SCAN
9. THE MORAL CLARITY OF THE ARAB CROWD

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

1. OFF-BUDGET CONCERNS
2. FOOD FUTURE 2050
3. CAN THE UPA CHANGE ITS SPOTS? - SUNIL JAIN
4. MID-LIFE CRISIS - AMITENDU PALIT

THE HINDU

1. CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
2. CUTTING PLASTIC WASTE
3. LIBYA: IN THE THROES OF CHANGE  - ATUL ANEJA
4. FERTILIZER SUBSIDY: WHAT IS GOOD FOR THE FARMER AND THE FARM?  - RAGHUVANSH PRASAD SINGH  
5. THE QUALITY OF MERCY  - V.R. KRISHNA IYER
6. TALIBAN BET ON FEAR OVER FORCE AS A TACTIC  - ALISSA J. RUBIN
7. NALANDA REVIVAL: WHY THIS MEDIA APATHY?  

THE ASIAN AGE

1. TOUGH UN ACTION ON LIBYA CRITICAL
2. WOMEN SEEK FAIR DEAL - JAYANTHI NATARAJAN

DNA

1. THE POWER OF SLEEP - ANITA NAIR
2. TWO SIDES OF A COIN - ANIMA NAIR

DAILY EXCELSIOR

1. WHY STAND "FINGERS CROSSED"?
2. AGITATING PHYSIOTHERAPISTS
3. DON'T FEAR FII INFLOWS - BY DR BHARAT JHUNJHUNWALA
4. CHERISH PAST, ASPIRE FOR FUTURE - BY DHEERAJ JANDIAL
5. PERSPECTIVES OF INDIAN TOURISM - BY DR. PRAGYA KHANNA

THE TRIBUNE

1. AL-QAIDA AS A RUSE
2. A MORE MATURE MAMATA
3. MID-DAY MEAL MESS
4. JOBLESSNESS IN RURAL INDIA - BY JAYSHREE SENGUPTA
5. CARD PROTOCOL - BY VINOD PRAKASH GUPTA
6. DEFENCE INDUSTRY REMAINS AN ACHILLES' HEEL - AIR MARSHAL R.S. BEDI (RETD)

MUMBAI MIRROR

1. THE COMIC MAKER OF INDIA

BUSINESS STANDARD

1. NORTH BLOCK VIEW
2. RUNNING DOWN THE RAILWAYS
3. KAUSHIK'S CALCULUS - SANJAYA BARU
4. THINK DIFFERENTLY, MR FINANCE MINISTER - SUNITA NARAIN
5. GROWTH VS SOCIAL JUSTICE - A V RAJWADE
6. THE CASE FOR INCOME TAX AMNESTY - ARINDAM DAS-GUPTA

THE ECONOMIC TIMES

1. FOR POWER REFORM
2. A GOOD BEGINNING
3. GOLDEN RULES
4. FORESTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT DEBATE
5. 'IMMIGRATION IS THE ANSWER TO SKILLS SHORTAGE'  - N SHIVAPRIYA
6. WE HAVE AN EMPLOYABILITY PROBLEM  - MILIND DEORA

DECCAN  CHRONICALE

1. TOUGH UN ACTION ON LIBYA CRITICAL
2. WOMEN SEEK FAIR DEAL  - BY JAYANTHI NATARAJAN
3. BERLUSCONI IS NO SOCRATES. HE EVADES LAW  - BY UMBERTO ECO
4. COVERT METHODS, OVERT GOALS
5. BARE FEET & THEIR SANCTITY  - BY MUZAFFAR ALI

THE STATESMAN

1. TRAIL-BLAZING LAW
2. RAVISHED RIVER
3. MINISTER VS BUREAUCRAT
4. KEEP PETRO PRICES LOW - BY ASWANI MAHAJAN
5. KEEP PETRO PRICES LOW - BY ASWANI MAHAJAN

THE TELEGRAPH

1. GROWING UP
2. TEST CASE
3. BHARAT RATNA UP FOR GRABS?  
4. DOUBLE TROUBLE

DECCAN HERALD

1. FISCAL STABILITY
2. LAST LIFT OFF
3. THE NEXT HORIZON  - M J AKBAR
4. TIDE IN THE ARAB WORLD IS IRREVERSIBLE -  PETER COHEN, NYT
5. WALKING DOWN MEMORY LANE  - VINITA KRISHNAMURTHY

THE NEW YORK TIMES

1. KEEP THE GOVERNMENT OPEN
2. NO EXIT FROM A BAD PROGRAM
3. TRANSPLANTS AND RATIONING
4. THE ANTHROPOCENE
5. LEAVING CHILDREN BEHIND - BY PAUL KRUGMAN
6. EXCEPT FEBRUARY - BY PHILIP S. HILL
7. LIMIT PAY, NOT UNIONS - BY MICHAEL R. BLOOMBERG

TIMES FREE PRESS

1. HIGH-STAKES BUDGET BATTLE
2. ETHANOL AND HIGH FOOD PRICES
3. CAUSE AND EFFECT

HURRIYET DAILY NEWS

1. FROM THE BOSPHORUS: STRAIGHT - WHAT DOES ERDOĞAN PROPOSE?
2. A PHANTOM MENACE TO TURKEY - EMRE DELİVELİ
3. GREEK MINISTER TO ARRIVE IN A TOUGHENED ANKARA - ARIANA FERENTINOU
4. ARAB REVOLUTIONS, CHINA AND OIL - GWYNNE DYER
5. FAREWELL TO HOCA… - YUSUF KANLI
6. WILL THE VISA OBLIGATION FOR TURKS BE ABOLISHED? - ALEXANDER BÜRGİN
7. BEHIND THE SCENES OF EGYPT'S REVOLUTION - CAN ERİMTAN

THE NEWS

1. SLIPPERY SLOPES
2. SPOOKS GALORE
3. PLANE CRASH CASE
4. LET THE ICJ DECIDE  - ASIF EZDI
5. WATCHING THE ALLY  - ZAFAR HILALY
6. TRAILBLAZING WEEKS
7. ROEDAD KHAN
8. BEING BIGGER THAN THE LAW  -  HUSSAIN H ZAIDI
9. CRISIS OF CREDIBILITY  - S IFTIKHAR MURSHED
10. REVOLT? NOT HERE  - CHRIS CORK

PAKISTAN OBSERVER

1. GEN PASHA'S DEEP CONCERN FOR UNDERCOVER OPERATIVES
2. CLEAN UP OPERATION IN FBR
3. PAK-US IN EQUATION! - AIR CDRE KHALID IQBAL (R)
4. FOR PEACE & STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN - DR RAJA MUHAMMAD KHAN
5. WOMEN SUFFERING - YAHYA AHMAD
6. QADDAFI'S DREAM MAY COME TRUE - AYAZ AHMED PIRZADA
7. CAN BANGLADESH FORGET PILKHANA MASSACRE? - ZAHEERUL HASSAN

THE AUSTRALIYAN

1. TIME FOR SOME TOUGH QUESTIONS
2. CARBON TAX COMPENSATION NOT WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION
3. LIBYA BURNS WHILE UN FIDDLES

THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

1. ASSANGE'S CASE TO ANSWER
2. STILL SEEKING A QUIET DRINK
3. RESTORE CONFIDENCE, THEN BRICKS AND MORTAR
4. MUCH ANGER, LITTLE CHOICE IN IRISH POLL

THE GUARDIAN

1. IN PRAISE OF … MOBY-DUCK
2. CIVIL PARTNERSHIPS: BLUSTER IN BAD FAITH
3. IRISH ELECTIONS: A VOTE CAST IN ANGER

THE JAPAN TIMES

1. INVESTIGATORY REFORM
2. TRACKING FORMER SEX OFFENDERS
3. IS IT THE DESTINY OF MUSLIMS AND JEWS TO FIGHT? - BY CESAR CHELALA
4. INDIA-PAKISTAN MATRIX CHALLENGES NUCLEAR SECURITY EFFORTS IN  REGION - BY HARSH V. PANT

THE JAKARTA POST

1. CLUTTERED DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS
2. STATE OF EMERGENCY OF NATIONAL SOCCER - SOLICHIN M. AWI  
3. BITTER SWEET STORIES AROUND THE BORDERS - I MADE ANDI ARSANA
4. AVERTING ANOTHER WORLD RICE PRICE CRISIS - SJAMSU RAHARDJA

DAILY MIRROR

1. NON-VIOLENT DIRECT ACTION CAMPAIGN BEGINS IN JAFFNA
2. WAR IN THE WASTELANDS
3. THE KILLER AFTERSHOCK
4. TOSSED OVER

GULF DAILY NEWS

1. MACDONALD ON MONDAY    

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

LIBYA'S CRUEL DICTATOR

IT'S TIME FOR MUAMMAR GADDAFI TO GO!

As the floundering President of Libya, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, continues his ruthless crackdown on protesters, it is time the international community realise that enough is enough. The weekend witnessed continued clashes between the protesters and Col Gaddafi's army of mercenaries, which has reportedly been firing indiscriminately at civilians. Several pro-Gaddafi supporters took to the streets after the embattled leader called on his loyalists to "prepare to defend Libya" in his second nationally televised speech since the uprising, in which he also simultaneously threatened to "burn all of Libya" if the protests did not stop. And then he added, "Libyan people love me" — a bizarre afterthought, it was clearly a desperate attempt by the autocrat to cling on to power that, after being unchallenged for 41 years, was now fast slipping out of his hands. Already, Col Gaddafi has lost control over the eastern part of the country. Major cities such as Benghazi have fallen into the hands of protesters who, emboldened by their success, defied the President's orders and renewed anti-Government marches in the capital, only to be faced with heavy gunfire from pro-Gaddafi militiamen. Col Gaddafi continues to control Tripoli but his power is significantly weakened. In a desperate bid to hold on to the capital, Col Gaddafi made the terrifying announcement that he would open Libya's weapons depot to civilian supporters, who may then arm themselves and let the country become "red with fire". As he continues to set an unacceptable precedent for other despots in the region, and there are several of them — countries have begun evacuating their citizens: On Saturday, India sent out two airplanes and four ships to bring home some18,000 Indians trapped in that country. while others have also made similar arrangements.

The humanitarian crisis that has engulfed Libya and the political crisis that is to follow suit as the country plunges into civil war apart, there is also another crisis that is brewing. Libya produces 1.6 million barrels of crude which forms roughly two per cent of the global oil supply and at least 50 per cent of all of Europe's supply. After protests erupted, the global market has lost 1.2 million barrels of Libyan oil everyday as energy plants and ports have been shut down. This has predictably led to a sharp spike in oil prices which have shot from $75 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel and is now threatening to further weaken an already anaemic global economy. Most countries, including economic powerhouses such as China, simply cannot afford to buy oil at higher prices in the current financial situation but a fall in oil supply would have a directly inverse effect on growth rates worldwide. This would further hurt the global economy which is still recovering from the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Clearly, it is to no one's benefit that oil prices skyrocket and this explains Saudi Arabia's decision to pump in more oil into the global pool to make up for the Libyan shortfall. Predictably, oil prices rapidly fell back after the announcement but interestingly, they have shot back again. This mysterious price rise is not entirely the effect of any popular uprising, Libyan or otherwise. Indeed, it is the result of predatory practices by oil speculators who simply wish to capitalise on other's misery. And this is where collective international action is called for to prevent a spike in oil prices through manufactured instability.

 

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THE PIONEER

EDITORIAL

OPEN RETAIL TO FDI

CONSUMERS DESERVE BETTER THAN CORNER STORES

While the Economic Survey for 2010-11 projects a robust 9 per cent growth for the next year, there are disturbing trends that could spoil the dream. According to recent reports Foreign Direct Investments recorded a major 22 per cent decline. Although in absolute terms the FDI figure was still at an impressive $21 billion, the drop is worrisome because it comes at a time when there is even a greater need for foreign funds, especially in the infrastructure sector that is crucial to ensure that the country sustains the growth trajectory. Incidentally, FDI had dropped in 2009-10 as well; it fell to $25.88 billion from $27.33 billion in 2008-09. Since, according to some estimates, Foreign Institutional Investments have remained more or less steady, the FDI fall can be attributed to the tapering off of private equity funds and venture capital. The Union Government has indicated that it requires at least $1 trillion for roads, ports and other utilities over the next five years to match the growth of China, which has emerged as the world's second largest economy, displacing Japan. To that end, the Reserve Bank of India's move to study the causes for the FDI drop is welcome. Although we need not second guess the reasons, some of them are apparent. While the economy has opened up over the decades, foreign investors still feel hemmed in due to the various caps that exist on investment, such as in the retail and insurance businesses. As yet FDI is not permitted in multi-brand retail outlets, for instance. And in the insurance sector, foreign investments are capped at 26 per cent. Since these are among the fastest growing service industries, the limitations are more stifling. The Economic Survey has done well to underscore the need for removing the bottlenecks for foreign investment in retail, allowing the likes of Wal-Mart to directly sell to the end consumer. Besides this retail giant, there are others like Tesco and Carrefour that have queued up.

It remains to be seen whether the Government accepts the imperative, because the issue here is not just economics but politics too. The Government has all along baulked at the idea because it believes the move would adversely impact millions of small shopkeepers and traders who form an important vote back across the country. That is why the Economic Survey suggests a tentative approach: Open a few multi-brand retail outlets with FDI in select cities to begin with before proceeding further. The idea is worth considering. The other reason for the FDI drop is the tortuous and largely opaque procedure to gain clearances, despite the reforms over the last two decades. We have had instances of foreign investors coming in and then struggling to perform because they were faced with conditions and circumstances they were not informed of earlier. While a certain level of uncertainty is an inherent aspect of any business, nobody wants to encounter endless red tape and deal with limitless corruption.

 

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THE PIONEER

COLUMN

UNBRIDGEABLE TRUST DEFICIT

BALBIR K PUNJ

The Congress may have numbers on its side in Parliament but it has begun to rapidly lose the confidence of the people.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has in all humility declared in Parliament "the basic premise of a functioning democracy". According to him, "We are a functioning democracy and must strive to resolve our differences in a spirit of accommodation, not confrontation. This, I hope, will renew our confidence in India's forward march. I am, therefore, requesting the Hon'ble Speaker to proceed with the formation of a Joint Parliamentary Committee." In view of what is happening in democracies elsewhere — for instance, Belgium does not have a formal Government even after more than 200 days of negotiations — Mr Singh's declaration in Parliament last Tuesday deserves to be applauded.

However, it is worthwhile to recall who exactly wanted the 'confrontation'. The same Prime Minister had earlier refused to accept the Opposition's demand for an inquiry into the 2G Spectrum allocation scandal by a Joint Parliamentary Committee. He has been forced to change his stand for two reasons: First, he failed to break the Opposition's unity on the demand. Second, he is left with little choice but to accept the demand after the CBI investigation into the 2G Spectrum loottook a serious turn with the arrest of former Telecom Minister A Raja.

The details of the 2G Spectrum scandal in which thousands of crores of rupees have changed hands are astounding. A Raja, it has been found, manipulated procedures to favour firms with no prior experience in the telecom sector. One firm overnight raised its capital from a paltry `1 lakh to `1,000 crore. Another leading corporate player lined up half-a-dozen companies with strange names abroad and transferred money from one to another. Further, companies connected to the DMK's ruling family suddenly obtained huge investments. Given these details, the Opposition's demand for a free and fair inquiry, was entirely justified. That inquiry can only be conducted by a joint parliamentary committee as it has the power to question anyone, including Ministers and even the Prime Minister.

Who will believe that other Ministers of the Union Government were completely unaware of money changing hands in the Telecom Ministry for almost two years (2007-08) as 2G licences were being awarded? Who will believe that the changing of rules, the advancing of the cut-off date for applications and the process of awarding licences to ineligible firms were mere coincidences? Was the free hand given to A Raja just a result of what Mr Singh had earlier described as constraints of a coalition Government?

Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley has correctly said that the Government is afflicted not just with "governance deficit" but also with "trust deficit", "leadership deficit" and "competence deficit". All that was needed was a one-line letter from the Prime Minister to A Raja, telling him that his decision to exclude eligible companies and award 2G licences to his favourite corporate houses would not be acceptable as the entire Government would be tainted. That would have stopped the Telecom Minister in his tracks.

At least such a letter would have saved Mr Singh from the embarrassment he has faced ever since the 2G scam was exposed and it became impossible to protect A Raja any longer. Mr Singh had received complaints from Members of Parliament warning him about the manner in which A Raja was conducting business in the Telecom Ministry. However, he kept dragging his feet on these complaints. It is this inaction which has been described by Mr Jaitley as both "incompetence" and "trust deficit".

The larger responsibility of ensuring a democracy functions as it is supposed to lies with the Government. The multiple deficits that Mr Jaitley has listed arise from the fact that in the Congress, which leads the coalition Government, the leader of the Government is neither the leader of the party nor does he wield political authority. The diarchy under which this Government functions makes it easy for individual Ministers to get away with anything. The Opposition has been able to expose this fundamental weakness by sticking to its demand for a JPC inquiry. However, only the Congress can correct the situation by ending this diarchy.

When a Government becomes a pawn in the internal power play of the ruling party, it cannot provide leadership either to Parliament or to the country. That is where the need for a purposeful Government arises. The washout of the Winter session of Parliament could have been avoided if the Prime Minister had the political foresight and authority to concede the demand for a JPC inquiry soon after it was raised. He agreed to it only after events overtook him and it became evident that his Government had fallen from grace in popular opinion.

 

The Congress has entered a phase of eclipse as public confidence in its integrity has seen much erosion. A Congress Chief Minister, Mr Ashok Chavan, had to go after the media exposed his complicity in the Adarsh Cooperative Housing Society scam. The periodic assurance the Congress gives about getting back the black money salted abroad sounds hollow because this Government only responds when it finds it too difficult to wriggle out of a tricky situation. President Pratibha Patil reiterated this assurance during her address to Parliament but did not spell out the steps contemplated by the Government. She did not mention anything about an institutional mechanism to arrest corruption or the flight of money from this country.

Just as in the case of the JPC, a relentless pursuit of the demand to bring back the black money stashed abroad has forced the Government to take some steps, however negligible they may be. The Supreme Court has also mounted pressure on the Government on the issues of 2G Spectrum scam, Adarsh Housing scandal and black money. The discomfort of the Government's counsels while answering the Supreme Court's questions is obvious to all.

What is interesting to note is that never before has India witnessed such a convergence of opinion — the main Opposition party's assessment of the Government matches with the Supreme Court's concern over the quality of governance. And that is the real indictment of this Government although it may have the numbers in its favour in Parliament. What it should remember is that democracy is not merely a game of numbers in the House. The final judgement always rests with the people.

-- punjbalbir@gmail.com

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THE PIONEER

OPED

UNCERTAIN FUTURE AWAITS EGYPT

BARRY RUBIN

Mohammed ElBaradei is unlikely to emerge as the new President, but if he does it will mean power to the Islamists. The other contender for power, Amr Moussa, represents radical Arab nationalism

I must be tolerably sure, before I venture to congratulate men on a blessing, that they have really received one..." Burke

The main issue is not whether Egypt will be either a happy democratic country or an Islamist state but rather what sections of the old regime will survive and whether radical nationalism or Islamism plays the dominant role in a post-Hosni Mubarak Egypt.

What's critical for the military is that no one touches the Army's privileges, money, and business enterprises plus doesn't go after the rich establishment. Who needs to repress people if they aren't causing you any trouble?

Thus, the military will allow constitutional changes and then free elections for President and then Parliament. As of now, the two main candidates for President seem to be Mohammed ElBaradei and Mr Amr Moussa. Polls show that Mr Moussa has a big advantage.

Why does Mr ElBaradei enjoy so little popularity, despite his being the Western media's favourite Egyptian? Because he is an unknown quantity, having been out of the country for 30 years and is in their eyes too close to the Americans. He also has no political experience at all. But most of all he is the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate and that is enough to taint him in the eyes of many people. It isn't that the Brotherhood lacks supporters but it doesn't have enough to elect a President who has almost nothing else going for him.

The most likely alternative at present seems to be Mr Moussa, Arab League Secretary-General and former Egyptian Foreign Minister. He often worked closely with former President Hosni Mubarak but this doesn't seem to hurt him. If Mr ElBaradei is dangerous because of his connection with the Muslim Brotherhood, radical impulses, and lack of experience, Mr Moussa is dangerous because of his mercurial personality and very radical views.

There are a number of possibilities for parties and political blocs that will be contending for Parliament. These include:

'Establishment' Reformers: Mr ElBaradei has been practically coronated by foreign observers as Egypt's next leader but his appeal is untested and his organisation almost non-existent. He is heavily dependent on the Brotherhood. That's precisely why he has flourished. But once the Muslim Brotherhood organises its own parliamentary party, despite supporting Mr ElBaradei for President, he is unlikely to be a powerful force in the legislature.

The idealistic democracy advocates of the April 6 Movement are unlikely as major contenders since their numbers are so small. They are, despite their success with the revolution, rather distant from the masses, and have no clear programme.

The Islamist Party: The Muslim Brotherhood is unlikely to take power and Egypt will not become an Islamist state overnight. But the Brotherhood is patient and is not stupid. While wealthy, secularised, urban Egyptians may look at them as a peasant rabble — just as the equivalent Iranians viewed their Islamists and such Lebanese saw Hizbullah — this group has manoeuvered very skillfully in the past.

The Brotherhood may have made a mistake by backing the wrong man for President. Nevertheless, it will be a very important factor in any future Parliament and is already organising its own party and media. The Brotherhood can expect at least 15 per cent in a divided Parliament and perhaps might attain double that amount. They will be a player and a force to be courted by anyone who would want to rule, meaning concessions to its demands. And with Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi as a charismatic preacher, the Brotherhood's support can grow further, especially in Egyptian villages.

There will also apparently be a small Islamic moderate party, al-Wasat, of people who left the Brotherhood because they found it too extremist. This will be an interesting phenomenon to watch but not a contender for power.

An Establishment Party: The ruling NDP, even if it changes its name or appears in a totally new guise, might get no support at all, tainted as it is by association with the old regime. But there will doubtless be a new party of the establishment. Enjoying backing from existing institutions and wealthier segments of society, this party could win if it finds the right candidate. Will there be a serious 'conservative' party? This is one of the main mysteries for the future of Egyptian politics.

The Left: Quasi-Marxists and extreme nationalists who may form one or several parties. They could never take power in their own right but could be important in a coalition with nationalists or the Brotherhood. Don't assume such a partnership couldn't happen.

The nationalists: Ironically, despite the apparent repudiation of the regime, these are people who want a return to the regime, not of Mr Mubarak but of a romanticised Nasserist era, which most of the population is too young to remember. Of course, this would be different from the historic Arab nationalism, a blend of Arabism, Egyptian patriotism, with anti-American and anti-Israel flavourings.

This is the kind of thing Mr Moussa represents. He's more popular than Mr ElBaradei, knows how to be a demagogue, is familiar to Egyptians, and seems more of a known quantity, and is anti-Israel and anti-American enough to galvanize the masses.

The problem is that both outcomes are bad: With Mr ElBaradei you get the possibility of growing Islamism; with Mr Moussa there is an updated form of radical nationalism. The idea of some idealistic, good government reformer winning seems slim at best, partly because it is hard to find someone like that and it is hard for someone like that to appeal to the masses.

Egypt is going to move from a 'pro-US' to a 'neutralist' stance in regional issues. That means it will not be of any help in combatting Iranian influence (except possibly in the Gaza Strip) or working against Iran getting nuclear weapons, or on promoting the peace-process or on any other regional issue. An area to watch especially will be what happens with Egypt-Syria relations.

What about the regional situation? Is Egypt likely to be a democratic light unto other Arabic-speaking societies? The likelihood is that the radical regimes — Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and its allies in Lebanon, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip — are not going to politely fold up. Their armies and security forces are willing to shoot to kill. There may be demonstrations but there won't be revolutions.

The wave of popular upheavals is more likely to destabilise more moderate regimes that aren't hostile to Israel than radical ones that are. In the end, though, probably no Governments will fall. But they — and especially Jordan and the Palestinian Authority — will be intimidated. They know that any compromises with Israel or friendly relations with it will not sit well with the masses and those who would agitate them into anger and action.

-- The writer is director of the GLORIA Center, Tel Aviv, and editor of the MERIA Journal. We will be tracking developments in the Arab world every Monday on this page.

 

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THE PIONEER

OPED

DEMOCRACY MEANS HAMAS IN GAZA

USING THE ROUTE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS HAMAS CAME TO POWER AND SINCE THEN HAS SUPPLANTED ALL THAT WAS SECULAR WITH ISLAMISM, SAYS DIAA HADID

After nearly four years of Hamas rule, the Gaza Strip's small secular community is in tatters, decimated by the militant group's campaign to impose its strict version of Islam in the coastal territory.

Hamas has bullied men and women to dress modestly, tried to keep the sexes from mingling in public and sparked a flight of secular university students and educated professionals. Most recently, it has confiscated novels it deems offensive to Islam from a bookshop and banned Gaza's handful of male hairdressers from styling women's hair.

The Hamas push towards religious fundamentalism is especially striking at a time of great change in West Asia. With the Iranian-backed group firmly entrenched in power, Gaza seems unlikely to experience the type of pro-democracy unrest that has swept through much of the region.

In Gaza, defence of human rights and democracy has traditionally been the role of people whose world view is not shaped solely by Islam. Their shrinking influence could undermine those values. Some argue that the case of Gaza could also be a warning sign for those pushing for quick democratic reforms in the region. Hamas rose to power in part by winning internationally-backed parliamentary elections held in 2006.

Hamas officials say claims that they are trying to Islamise Gaza are meant to help deter the international community from recognising their rule. "This isn't true," said Mr Yousef Rizka, senior Hamas Government official. "We respect freedom."

Gaza, a tiny sliver of land squeezed between Egypt and Israel, always had a significant Islamic flavour, but once tolerated bars and cinemas, especially during Egyptian rule from 1948 to 1967. A conservative religious movement began to take hold in the 1980s, as part of a larger, region-wide religious awakening and because of intensifying conflict with Israel, which occupied the territory from 1967 to 2005.

The trend accelerated with the first Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation in 1987, which coincided with the founding of Hamas. In June 2007, Hamas seized control of Gaza after ousting forces loyal to Western-backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In Gaza, whose 1.5 million people are overwhelmingly devout Muslims, 'liberal' and 'secular' are loose, interchangeable terms. Because the terms are used loosely, it's hard to know how many Gazans are actually secular. They dominate Gaza's human rights organisations, art collectives and youth groups. Since the Hamas takeover, their numbers appear to have shrunk. There are no firm statistics, but their public profile has certainly diminished.

Many left to study abroad and never returned. Others obtained refugee visas in Europe or found work in the Gulf. "In the end, the people who think differently are leaving," said Rami, a 32-year-old activist in one of Gaza's few secular groups. He refused to give his last name, fearing retribution. The Gallery Cafe, one of Gaza's last secular spots, is a freeze-frame of their lonely fortunes.

About a dozen chain-smoking men and three women swigged nonalcoholic beer and sugary mint tea on a recent night as they debated the protests sweeping the Arab world. They huddled on plastic chairs under a marquee, pummeled by chilly wind. The trend towards religious fundamentalism preceded the Hamas takeover. In recent years, hardliners have burned down the cinemas. Their charred remains are still visible in Gaza City.

Militants blew up the last bar in 2005. Gaza women, whose attire once varied from Western pants and skirts to colorful traditional embroidered robes, began donning ankle-length loose robes. Women with face veils, once rarely seen in Gaza, are now a common sight.

After winning the 2006 election, Hamas vowed it wouldn't impose Islamic law. But within two years, bureaucrats began ordering changes that targetted secular Gaza residents.

During the summer of 2009, plainclothes Interior Ministry officials on beach patrols ordered men to wear shirts. Today, plainclothes officers sometimes halt couples in the streets, demanding to see marriage licences. Last year, the Interior Ministry banned women from smoking water pipes in public. Islamic faith does not ban women from smoking, but it is considered taboo in Gaza society.

In November, officials shuttered the UN-funded Sharek Youth Forum, Gaza's largest youth organisation and a popular hangout for secular youth. Sharek employees say they were interrogated over pornography found on some staff computers. They said it was the personal material of some employees and offered to punish them for inappropriate behaviour.

In January, the Culture Ministry confiscated two novels from Gaza City's dusty Ibn Khaldoun bookshop. They said residents complained the books offended Islamic values.

One described the lives of Egyptian immigrants in the US and has been criticised for portraying a romantically involved unmarried couple. The other, an 18-year-old book by Syrian writer Haidar Haidar, called A Banquet for Seaweed, was deemed blasphemous in parts of the Muslim world because it contains phrases describing god as a "failed artist" and the Prophet as a womaniser. Pockets of dissent remain. Gaza human rights groups frequently and publicly denounce Hamas campaigns.

One group of Gaza youth issued a call for support on Facebook, raging against their Hamas rulers, the UN, and Israel. Most people who joined the effort live abroad. Mr Jamal Sharif, an English-language lecturer, said many Gazans live two lives: They submit to Hamas rules on the streets, but keep their own, more secular, ideas alive at home through the Internet and satellite TV. "That's where we learn to be cultured," Mr Sharif said.

 AP

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

A NEW ENGAGEMENT

 

With each passing day, it becomes more certain that Libya's revolution will not be resolved as swiftly and bloodlessly as Tunisia's and Egypt's did. The Gaddafi clan does not mean to go quietly, and with a section of the military backing them to the hilt, the country is teetering on the brink of civil war. Meanwhile, the Gulf states watch anxiously while scrambling to use a mixture of palliative measures and heavy-handedness to pacify their own restive populaces. The UN continues to condemn the Libyan regime. Iran is subject to democracy pressures itself but jostles for advantage in West Asia and North Africa.

It's a difficult situation for New Delhi. When the people's push for democracy had momentum as it did in Tunisia and Egypt, deciding on a policy was relatively easier. But in the far murkier waters of Libya and the Gulf where the tussle could be a protracted one, calibrating a response becomes far more difficult. Consider the stakes for New Delhi. The UAE overtook the US in 2008-09 to become India's largest trading partner, a position it continues to hold today. India's energy security calculus revolves around the region as well. Currently, it is the sixth largest net importer of oil in the world - it's expected to be the fourth largest by 2025 - and imports 70% of its oil needs. Of those imports, 70% comes from the Middle East. Factor in the massive Indian diasporas in the Gulf countries and the complexity of the problem becomes clear.

New Delhi's policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states has stood it in good stead in the past, and there is no need to abandon it in case of the turmoil roiling the Arab world. However, it does present an opportunity to project New Delhi's soft power, which is considerable in the region. It presents a working democratic model in a sociocultural environment far closer to the Gulf's than western democracies are - and with none of the political baggage of the latter.

Leveraging this soft power will require a multi-pronged effort. A start could be made by helping set up the electoral process in Egypt as the US has already requested, to the extent called for by the Egyptians. Participating in diplomatic, humanitarian and democracy-building initiatives in the region whenever asked for, while deepening civil society engagement - are all options. It will not be an easy process. But it is in New Delhi's interests to start such an engagement and seize the opportunities that open up.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

 COMMENT

INFLATION TRADE-OFF

 

While current inflation levels certainly need to be brought down, this year's Economic Survey has a radical suggestion - inflation may be here to stay with us if we want a high-growth economy. Using crude instruments to bring down inflation could have unpalatable consequences - such as loss of output and jobs, factories closing down and farms becoming less productive. If that is the case, rather than curbing inflation radically, an alternate course would be to work out ways of shielding the poor from the effects of inflation. Since the bulk of the poor's income is consumed by food, it's food inflation that any insurance policy should seek to cover. Here, the Survey notes that the public distribution system haemorrhages between 40% and 55% of essential commodities that pass through it. It needs to be reformed drastically, or better still bypassed with a system of food coupons or cash transfers.

If we were to move to food coupons or cash transfers, besides cutting wastage an additional advantage would be that they could be indexed easily to the prevailing inflation rate. Similarly, the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act needs to be revoked. Having degenerated into a cartel, farmers are paid poorly while middlemen make disproportionate profits by selling dearly. Opening up to organised retail could create a replacement for the APMC by allowing farmers to sell direct to shops. Interlinked with these is the Aadhaar identity card project because it eliminates the need for a PDS. Aadhaar would also permit the poor to directly access the formal banking system. Combined, these measures would help government keep overall inflation to a bearable 5% to 7% while also permitting the poor to improve their living standards.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

TOP ARTICLE

CORRUPTION: ON THE CUSP OF CHANGE

AJAY SHANKAR

 

Premchand's classic description about a hundred years back of a petty government official having a salary which, like the full moon, progressively shrinks to finally disappear as the days pass, supplemented by the real 'other' income which is like a flowing stream and takes care of needs as they arise, comes to mind as corruption has dominated public attention in recent months. A slightly longer historical perspective is useful at times!

The legacy of the Raj has been so strong that for ordinary citizens, the sense that government is ours and will do what we want is still to become sufficiently widespread, though progress has been remarkable. The decades of faith in the efficacy of bureaucratic micromanagement of the economy and increasing state intervention led to a rapid increase in 'rent seeking behaviour', a euphemism for corruption. The prevailing environment of extreme scarcity heightened these tendencies. As individuals sought material advancement in an economic environment which offered few real opportunities, a strange contradiction emerged between the formal discourse of the 'public good' and the informal one centred on 'private profit'.

As political participation became more inclusive across parties - and as merit-based recruitment for government positions with reservations to further social justice grew - there occurred the process of what can be best described as the democratisation of corruption. New political cadre and new government employees from hitherto unrepresented social strata could all benefit from corruption. Corruption began to acquire a constituency. As using political power for the larger public good was difficult, why not also use it for private profit which was easier. In any case, there was the compulsion of raising resources for political activity in a poor developing economy. Aggressive identity politics could provide electoral stability even with unabashed private rent seeking behaviour. If all are corrupt, why single out any one.

Every now and then, there would be a popular backlash against corruption both at the central level and in the states. Opposition parties would use the issue to the maximum. There would be changes in government following elections where corruption would be the major issue. High-profile cases would be registered and some dramatic arrests would be made. Then, the dust would settle and it would be back to business as usual.

Is it going to be the same this time or has something really changed which should warrant optimism? In democracies, changes are slow and incremental but at some stage an inflexion point is reached and a qualitative transformation begins which over time has a revolutionary impact. One such inflexion point was reached with the licence permit raj approach to the economy.

Since then, liberalisation has increased and become irreversible. As state monopolies have ended and scarcity has given way to competition, ordinary people have not only benefited but have also seen the withering away of corruption in these areas. Increasing entrepreneurial freedom has transformed India and given hope that with sustained 8% to 10% growth, the battle against poverty could finally be won.

Sustained economic growth of over 8% for almost 10 years, political inclusiveness, the information revolution, the confidence of the young in their right and ability to make a better future have all brought India to another inflexion point. The ordinary people have seen the limits of identity politics and are getting increasingly angry at the price they are paying for pervasive corruption.

 

A free, competitive and vibrant media, the impact of the RTI, and dedicated NGOs have acquired a critical mass. These forces will only gain in strength. Political cadre and government servants will find it increasingly difficult to escape scrutiny. Even the higher judiciary is finding itself being called to account for the first time. The pressure is to liberate India from corruption. Political leaders would find it to their advantage to be on the right side of this historical transformation as can be seen from the public response to even the perception of not acting quickly enough against corruption.

Progress in the struggle against corruption will need simultaneous policy effort at both the macro and micro levels. The core strategy for both has already been evolved and seen to have worked. At the macro level, liberalisation has greatly narrowed the scope of corruption. While further liberalisation would help, the government may still be required to take decisions with large implications for economic players. A consensus on the right and fair way forward through transparent stakeholder consultation in such situations would be invaluable.

At the micro level, IT has already worked wonders for, say, railway reservations. The rollout of e-governance with independent oversight and audit mechanisms would make a huge dent in petty corruption. Political parties also need to seriously address the issue of political funding. Political activity is a public good and needs transparent funding mechanisms which are fair and equitable. Practices elsewhere need to be studied and discussed.

The experiences of other democracies have shown the arrival of similar inflexion points of qualitative transformation with regard to corruption. India is on the verge of one. The challenge is to move forward speedily with bipartisan consensus and to generate confidence and optimism. The process would then be irreversible.

The writer is a former secretary of industries .

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

Q&A

'FOLLOWING STANDARD INTERNATIONAL PROTOCOLS ENGENDERS INVESTOR CONFIDENCE'

DEEP K DATTA-RAY

 

With FDI slipping and scandals galore, is UK business shying away from India?

There's a lot of UK investment though some doesn't appear to be British. Vodafone is British but entered India through a Dutch route. Given the magnitude of UK investment and the time it takes - sometimes decades - to realise a return, what business is most concerned about is transparency and predictability. The UK is here for the long haul but the commercial relationship would work better if the regulatory and fiscal environment were more predictable. Following standard international protocols on tax and other matters engenders investor confidence. Naturally, there's risk in entering new markets. But it's more difficult to evaluate risk if companies are faced with a tax or regulatory situation that has no precedent. This dissuades others from making an initial investment. This would be bad for India and for us because British business wants to enter India.

Where are the areas for economic cooperation and can it unleash new synergies?

There's major potential for cooperation. We can contribute in financial services, defence and retail but the Indian marketplace needs to be opened. That would transform India's productive capacities by infusing new processes and technologies to help unleash India's latent potential. Our interests are closest to India's across the spectrum. Both of us are to a large extent service economies. Being an island nation we believe in open markets, as does India. On climate change, we agree the environment must be protected in a way that safeguards economic development and that tackling this can't be put off. There's terrorism, where unfortunately, we both have considerable experience. The threat you've faced for sometime now is a danger to us. We are interested in learning from your experience in dealing with this. In short, the scope for cooperation is vast. Coming back to the commercial point, India has to decide to take the leap and help international investment release the talent here.

Why do you visit the northeast and how do you perceive Bhutan's relations with the UK and India?

I've been to the northeast thrice for historical reasons, to commemorate WW II soldiers and because New Delhi wants to develop the region. Recently 10 UK companies visited to look at infrastructure projects. We're alert to New Delhi's political sensitivities there. Burma, China and Bangladesh are close by. We're keen to understand India's evolving approach to socio-political and governance issues. We have an interest in India's success, not least because you're a model for democracy.

As for UK-Bhutan relations, these are an interesting exception to the diplomatic norm. Bhutan has no formal diplomatic relations with us, or with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council. But the ruling family has strong personal ties with the UK. The diplomatic norm is a formal bilateral relationship with minimal people-to-people links but for Bhutan and the UK, the opposite is true.

Your son volunteered in Kolkata. What's the future of volunteering and on a larger scale, aid to India?

The younger generation needs to find out about other countries and understanding India is likely to be a particular asset in the future. In our family, we believe that volunteering is a great way to do this. As for aid, the UK is committed to the Millennium Development Goals as is India. We've left the old stereotypes of aid behind. Now it's about partnerships between us to support Indian initiatives. The UK has projects underway in four states providing teacher training and ensuring girls go to school amongst other things.

 

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THE TIMES OF INDIA

WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER?

PRASHANT AGRAWAL

 

'What's your number?' is a common question at business schools. Before anyone has any illicit thoughts, the number refers to how much money you need to retire. The question, rephrased, being: how long does one have to slog at a consultancy, hedge fund, private equity or investment bank before retiring.

Depending on the person, the answer ranges. Some will say 10 crore and a house. The 10 crore provide 50 lakh a year in interest to pay for living expenses. That would allow good food, a nice car, some help and education for the children. For others, 10 crore will be too little; they need 50 crore and two houses, the second being a summer house in Goa or the hills. Spending per year would be more along the lines of two crore. This would lead to nice business-class travel to foreign locales, shopping, meals at Michelin star restaurants and education for the children at the best schools. Of course, there are the super extravagant needing 100 crore. That gets a supersize lifestyle with all the fixtures.

It's a fun, late-night conversation that happens over beer. Pankaj Mishra and Arundhati Roy would be aghast, but the business school students mean no harm. They're just daydreaming. The question, though, is how these conversations go in Parliament or state legislatures. Do MPs, MLAs or ministers sit back and discuss their "number" to retire?

Is it 100 crore, 200 crore or 500 crore? How much money does one need, not to lead just a good life in India, but an extravagant one? Take 50 crore for a magnificent mansion. Add two lakh for food each month (the price of onions has gone up), five lakh for travel (petrol is getting dearer), two lakh for help (must treat the people right), one lakh for electronics (ironically, telecom prices are going up), another two lakh for education (you have to care for your future) and another four lakh for miscellaneous expenses. That adds up to 16 lakh a month or two crore a year. Take a normal lifespan of another 50 years and you get a 100 crore. Add another 100 crore for inflation. That's 250 crore: $60 million.

Let's nearly double that to $100 million. Is that a number that would satisfy politicians? It seems not. The numbers from the 2G scam, the land scams, the defence scams, the Isro scam, the sports scams etc, all suggest that our politicians don't have a number. There seems to be no limit to their appetite. And that makes no sense.

The average Indian will earn less than a lakh this year. One lakh. To earn 100 crore will take 10,000 years or 100 lifetimes. An average Indian would have been able to discuss Manu's laws with the man himself, sit under the banyan tree with Buddha, marvel at the making of the Asoka pillar, contemplate God at the Sun Temple as it was made, dine with Akbar, serve as a scribe to Tulsidas, fight the British in 1857, mourn the martyrs of Jallianwala Bagh, march with Gandhi, hear Nehru's Tryst with Destiny speech, shake a leg with Amitabh Bachchan, and witness India's World Cup victory in 1983 and 2011 (about to happen). Yet, the average Indian, earning an average Indian salary, would not be able to earn as much as some netas have earned in a single deal in 2010.

There has to be one politician who is full up, who has had his full share of cash and said enough: "Now, dear countrymen, i am full. I want to put all my efforts into helping the people without recompense." There has to be a number that politicians reach where they say this. Maybe those MBA students can help us figure out what that number is?

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

OUR TAKE

YOU TAKE THE MAIN ROAD

There is little else Indians love than holding a rousing rally. And this is the season of rallies. So it is quite a common sight in our cities to see rallies snaking along main thoroughfares expressing resentment of everything from onion prices to corruption to land scams. This, many may justifiably argue, is our right as citizens of a vibrant democracy. But, the problem arises when one person's right to complain publicly about the price of onions impedes another's right to get to work. Or worse still, to get to hospital in time.

Over the years, rallies have become so commonplace that many have either got inured to the disruptions they cause or have got incensed by these. With the proliferation of parties and the growth of coalition politics, rallies have also become shows of strength aimed at rattling opponents. In the city of those past masters of rallies, hartals, bandhs and other forms of protest, Kolkata, many productive days are lost by people taking to the streets. A petition is pending in the Kolkata High Court seeking an end to these often meaningless protests. The Kerala High Court had earlier banned public rallies on roadsides, a decision which the Supreme Court upheld. It is no one's contention that legitimate forms of protest should not be allowed or that the courts should be dragged into this. But, it is quite possible that not everyone's idea of protest is to hold up traffic and prevent the movement of people who might prefer other forms of expressing their dissatisfaction.

Since rallies are not going to vanish overnight, city administrations could review the practice of allowing rallies at all times of the day with the police merely concerning itself with maintaining the peace. Rallies are clearly held at times when they are thought to make the most impact on the public. But when the public begins to consider them a nuisance, their utility value diminishes. It would be better if it became incumbent on rally organisers to give advance notice and for authorities to be able to regulate the time and location where it could be held. If we had a Hyde Park where protestors go and rail agai-nst Queen and country, we wouldn't have such a problem. But we don't so we have to best examine how to accommodate the interests of all concerned. Otherwise, the courts will intervene as in Kerala and shut off what should be a legitimate avenue of protest. It would be also in the interest of habitual rallyists to use this weapon judiciously so as to maximise its efficacy. As we all know, the best things come in small doses.

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

THE PUNDIT

HOLD DOWN THE LINES

The day of the arrival of the financial Magi has come and we are aquiver to see what is in store when they open their gifts. But we are even more anxious to listen to the quotations which punctuate the budget speech, hoping against all hope that it won't be from the usual suspects, Tagore who will definitely feature, Thiruvalluvar or even Keynes. No, given that our fortunes are likely to go downhill after the euphoric rush when taxes are cut by a fraction, we wish that the speech could at least bring us more joy than past ones have.

Why should budget speeches be surrounded by gravity much in the manner of the Pope addressing the faithful? Let's hear it from George W Bush who said, "It's clearly a budget. It's got a lot of numbers in it." Now, of course, our finance ministers are not quite as simplistic as Dubya. But surely we can ask as in the words of Spike Milligan, "All I ask is the chance to prove that money can't make me happy." While finance ministers in the past have asked us to spend, spend, spend, they have not meant that we should go out and go overboard. Clearly, they could have taken a lesson from Oscar Wilde who said, "Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination." And that is something we don't lack even though we barely have the means to stay alive. But that does not mean that we don't hanker after reconciling our gross habits with our net income to mangle a saying by Errol Flynn. So it is clear that we can only look heavenwards for some good news on the fiscal front if the finance minister has no goodies for us.

If only Woody Allen's exhortation asking God for a sign like making a huge deposit in our names in a Swiss bank were to come true, our faith in budgets would be restored. For days now we will be grappling with figuring out the figures. And, on a tight budget at that.

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

TWEET TO CONFESS

ARPITA DAS

It is no wonder that the DVD I picked up this week to watch was Frost/Nixon. So much that is current and playing on one's mind these days is about despots, political admissions or the lack of, and the general miasma of that age-old issue: abuse of power. Only recently we watched a bloated Muammar al-Gaddafi ranting about how he has no 'place' to resign from and all he has is his gun. That piece of un-statesmanlike posturing forced even his traditional Western allies to give press briefings about how dangerous it's all suddenly become in Libya when just last year Senator Clinton was sending Gaddafi missives about how much regard the Obama government had for him and his country.

Frost/Nixon is a powerful yet curious film. Powerful because of the riveting performances and cracking screenplay, which make the audience believe they are present in the Smith house during that event some 35 years ago which redefined political corruption and its exposé, or as one of the protagonists describes it, "… a lasting legacy that every political scam after this event would have the suffix 'gate' attached to it". It's curious as it seems to be set in an age of innocence. A conservative, tough, man's man of a president abuses/misuses his power, gets caught out, resigns, but remains smug and confident in his public posturing as the long-suffering, right-man-at-the-wrong-time patriarch. Like the mythical Goliath, he buckles however, when he meets his David in the ring, which almost makes the 'good' guys worry that his bluster will prevail.

The makings of a true Hollywood epic, and it took a Ron Howard, better known for his less than extraordinary film version of Da Vinci Code, to see the potential of this epoch-making interview in cinematic terms three decades after the event. I haven't seen the original interview, and I don't even want to. I want to stay with the belief that what the film showed could actually happen. That it wasn't a staged symphonic progression from the allegro of the first couple of questions which Nixon dodged with ease, to the adagio of his responses to questions on Russia, China and his family, to the escalated, deafening presto of the Watergate section of the interview, down to the silence which preceded and followed the words a defeated Nixon finally uttered, "I let the American people down." I want to believe in the confessional that the collarless Frost provided Nixon with. I want to believe that Nixon too wanted to tell the truth. I want to believe in the drama of it, which gives it its cinematic raison d'être.

It is the desperate sort of belief one had in those early days of private Indian news channels, that one of these days one of our own 'white knights' on the TV screen could manage the same, say, with a Narendra Modi in a moment of 'cascading candour', as Frost describes it to waiting reporters. But things are different now. Unlike Nixon, who was uncomfortable with the new medium of TV when he sparred with Frost, or even Modi who got annoyed with Rajdeep Sardesai in the interview during the Gujarat riots, political notables more recently implicated in cases of corruption or other criminal circumstances have learnt how to 'work' the media. These are the days of the well-established nexus between the politician and the news anchor; no longer is the latter a white knight or the former in a confessional.

So what is that medium that could get an admission of guilt out of our political criminals, one that doesn't intimidate or put one on the defensive, but seduces us with a sense of community while making us feel anonymous, precisely what the TV might have been to Nixon in the days when tough-talking political analysts wrote only for newspapers. I'd wager that it would have to be social media networking, a medium little understood by the political community barring the younger lot. Despite this lack of a sense of how to use it advantageously, there is a growing feeling that it ought to be harnessed for political mileage. Shashi Tharoor tried his hand at it; look where it landed him. Gone are the days of interviews and inquisitions.

It's increasingly possible to imagine a scene where a Modi, Kalmadi, Mayawati or Raja were to sit in the privacy and security of his/her own turf, in an armchair with a glass of the preferred beverage by the side, log on, and, in an epiphany, tweet a confession. Of course, they could always click the Undo Tweet button immediately afterwards, but why go there anyway!

Arpita Das is Publisher, Yoda Press The views expressed by the author are personal

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

THE PRICE OF SURVIVAL

PANKAJ VOHRA

The Union budget may provide the UPA government one last chance to redeem itself. It is also perhaps the biggest challenge before the most-experienced finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, and one of the top economists, Manmohan Singh, to prove that they are capable of living up to expectations without using too much financial jargon.

It is common belief that the plight of the central government would not have been so bad if it had been able to control rising prices. The government failed to explain through its political constituents the reasons for the high prices of essential commodities and took far too long to hold a Cabinet meeting on this issue.

This showed a lack of seriousness on the part of the UPA. Instead of addressing the issue, some elements in the Congress started shifting the blame to senior minister Sharad Pawar as if he alone was responsible for the mess. It was forgotten that it is the collective responsibility of the Cabinet to resolve such issues. If Pawar was so inefficient, why was he not shifted from or dropped from the ministry? It could have been the "compulsions of coalition politics''. But in this case Pawar was willing to give up some responsibilities after he became head of the International Cricket Council (ICC).

The Economic Survey, released on Friday, projected a near double-digit growth rate for the coming financial year. While taking note of inflation it hopes that the government will be able to come to grips with the ground reality. The government must understand that growth rate and Sensex figures are all very fine but the common man won't be satisfied until he gets his essential items at a reasonable price.

The state governments also have a role to play so far as the public distribution system (PDS) goes. The PDS is in a shambles in most states. In other words, even the best schemes of the government can't be implemented in both letter and spirit if the benefit does not reach the common man.

The Congress and its allies had come to power on the strength of standing up for the aam aadmi. However, what has happened is that not only is the disparity between the rich and poor increasing but affordability is also becoming a major problem. From the poor to fixed income groups, everyone is finding it difficult to make ends meet.

The silver lining is that the current finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, is from the Indira Gandhi era when 'garibi hatao' was the thrust. He had presented budgets in the early 80s during difficult days. He is also the most seasoned politician in Parliament. So expectations of him are high. Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had steered the country's economic situation during trying times when we had reached bankruptcy and mortgaged our gold reserves to bail ourselves out. He may be an amateur in politics but he is very sound on finance.

Between the two, they have to figure out how to pull India out of its present price rise crisis. If they succeed, many other issues that have tarnished the image of this government will recede into the background. Essential items must be made available at reasonable rates. This is the least one expects. Otherwise Iqbal's famous couplet may serve a warning: "Jis khet se dahkan to mayassar na ho roti (rozi) us khet ke har khoshaye gandum ko jalado, utho meri duniya ke garibon ko jaga do'' (What is the use of a field which cannot feed those who plough it? It is better to burn every inch of such a crop. Wake up the poor who live in my world).

The government must make sure that such a scenario does not come to pass. Between us.

 

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HINDUSTAN TIMES

LET SOME FRESH AIR IN

YOUSUF SAEED

Delhi's Jamia Millia Islamia university being granted a 'minority status' has been celebrated by many, including newspapers, as happy news and one which gives Muslims 'due justice'. Some of Jamia's teachers and staff even distributed sweets to mark the announcement, which will allow the university to reserve 50% seats for Muslims. As someone who's lived all his life near the university and studied there, I don't support this minority tag, despite the fact that the lobby supporting it is far stronger than I could imagine. If the aim of the minority status is to uplift the community from its backwardness, I think it's only going to push the Muslims into a deeper ghetto. Inclusive growth is possible only with an eclectic diversity of students and staff. Jamia already has enough 'Muslim' character, and it does not need any legal status to ensure it.

Those seeking the minority status argue that leaders like Mohammad Ali Jauhar and Hakim Ajmal Khan established Jamia in 1920, as "they wanted Muslims to keep their education in their own hands, free from governmental interference." But why do we forget that 1920 was the British period and Jamia was established as a reaction to British interference in Aligarh's Muhammedan Anglo-Oriental College (MAO) started by Sir Sayyad Ahmed Khan? Why should we apply the same to the present democratic government, which gives aid to the university? Leaders like Jauhar, Ajmal Khan and others, who we invoke today, were not against non-Muslims taking part in Jamia's development. Their secular ideals and actions were far greater than what we can aspire to. At one time in Jamia's history, the lack of funds forced the staff to get one piece of bread a day as salary! Can any staff member or student think of emulating such ideals today? Times have changed and so have the Muslim community and Jamia. If we invoke the name of Ajmal Khan and Jauhar today, we're only 'using' them for selfish gains.

The example of St Stephen's College in Delhi is often used to justify Jamia's minority character, as the former already has the status of a Christian institution. I think Jamia's case can't be compared with that of St Stephen's for several reasons. Both institutions have very different histories and objectives. Jamia had a direct involvement with India's freedom struggle, whereas St Stephen's was established — according to its prospectus — as a "religious foundation drawing inspiration from the life and teachings of Jesus Christ" by a Christian mission from Westcott House, Cambridge.

Second, the quality of education in both institutions is very different — today, St Stephen's is considered one of the top Delhi colleges whereas, sadly, Jamia (with the exception of some departments) does not feature high in students' preference lists. But St Stephen's high standards have nothing to do with its minority status. It is a part of a long tradition of quality education that convent institutions have diligently held up. Its minority status, while setting precedence for others, was not implemented to uplift the economic condition of Christians but preserve their culture and values.

If the aim of Jamia is to preserve its 'Muslimness', then there has never been any compromise on that. According to the present vice-chancellor, Jamia already has 51% Muslim students, and applying the minority status would have no particular effect. For a religious character, Jamia campus and its surroundings have several mosques, Jamia's staff can take off from work for prayer, can work for lesser hours during Ramazan, school students are taught Urdu and Islamic theology and girl students can wear a veil, besides many other advantages they never get in any 'mainstream' institution. Jamia recognises degrees from Islamic madrasas as qualification for admissions into its courses like BA and MA, allowing thousands of madrasa students to get secular education and professional training. Jamia has departments of Urdu, Arabic, Persian and Islamic Studies. The university's name itself has 'Islamia' in it. All this to ensure that 'Islamic' culture is upheld even without the minority character.

I think Muslims fear that while being victimised elsewhere in the country with communal biases and violence, their institutions will also get filled with non-Muslims, which would usurp the already shrunk spaces. But won't accepting mostly Muslim teachers and students in Jamia prevent the entry of bright students and teachers from other communities, whose presence could create a progressive and competitive atmosphere? Interacting with a wide diversity of people is good not only for students' careers but also to reduce communal prejudices and perceptions of victimisation. The minority tag has outlived its use and needs to be discarded.

Yousuf Saeed is a Delhi-based independent filmmaker and researcher. The views expressed by the author are personal

 

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T tion c wo Indian scientists -- Ajay Anil Gurjar and Siddhartha A. Ladhake -- are wielding sophisticated mathematics to dissect and analyse the traditional medita- chanting sound `Om'. The `Om team' has published six tion chanting sound `Om'. The `Om team' has published six monographs in academic journals, which plumb certain acoustic subtlety of Om that they say is "the divine sound".

Om has many variations. In a study published in the Inter- national Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, the researchers explain: "It may be very fast, several cycles per second. Or it may be slower, several seconds for each cycling of [the] Om mantra. Or it might become extremely slow, with the mmmmmm sound continuing in the mind for much longer periods but still pulsing at that slow rate." The important technical fact is that no matter what form of Om one chants at whatever speed, there's always a basic `Omness' to it. Both Gurjar, principal at Amravati's Sipna College of Engineering and Technology, and Ladhake, an assistant professor in the same institution, specialise in electronic signal processing. They now sub-specialise in analysing the one very special signal. In the introductoy paper, Gurjar and Ladhake explain that, "Om is a spiritual mantra, out- standing to fetch peace and calm."

No one has explained the biophysi- cal processes that underlie the `fetch- ing of calm' and taking away of thoughts. Gurjar and Ladhake's time-fre- quency analysis is a tiny step along that hitherto little-taken branch of the path of enlightenment. They apply a mathematical tool called wavelet transforms to a digital recording of a person chanting `Om'. Even people with no mathematical back- ground can appreciate, on some level, one of the blue-on- white graphs included in the monograph. This graph, the authors say, "depicts the chanting of `Om' by a normal per- son after some days of chanting". The image looks like a pile of nearly identical, slightly lopsided pancakes held together with a skewer, the whole stack lying sideways on a table. To behold it is to see, if nothing else, repetition.

Much as people chant the sound `Om' over and over again, Gurjar and Ladhake repeat much of the same analy- sis in their other five studies, managing each time to chip away at some slightly different mathematico-acoustical fine point. The Guardian

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

TOTAL RECALL

 

As Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee presents the Union budget today, he will be held to promises from previous budget statements that remain unfulfilled. Among those, the most important one that stands out as having been postponed year after year is the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The implementation of the GST requires setting up of a goods and services network and mapping out the way from a pilot to a steady state. The Technology

Advisory Group for Unique Projects headed by Nandan Nilekani has already submitted its report on the steps that need to be taken on the implementation of this complex project.

Earlier budget promises include setting up of the Debt Management Office (DMO), or the

National Treasury Management Agency. While the UPA government announced the NTMA and set up a middle office for the DMO, very little progress has been made. The finance ministry's internal working group on debt management provided detailed steps for incubating the project, setting up IT systems, creating databases on debts and contingent liabilities and transferring the functions from RBI to NTMA. But it has been two years and this has not been implemented. The NTMA can be critical in bringing down the cost of government borrowing, very crucial at a time like this when the fiscal deficit is high and rising.

An Expenditure Information Network that can track government expenditure better is still pending. The existing system of government expenditure has enormous limitations. For example, measurement of plan implementation is on the basis of outlay rather than outcome. As the government follows hierarchical and multiple patterns for allocation and release of funds to the implementing agencies and beneficiaries, it is impossible to track the flow of funds to actual beneficiaries. It is equally difficult to evaluate the performance of agencies based on spending and project

implementation. The pension bill too is pending. The New Pension System suffers from many other problems as well. The finance ministry must not postpone steps towards convergence of all pension and provident fund streams, rationalisation of tax treatment of NPS to provide an even treatment with other retirement products and providers and creating awareness among subscribers.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

CAIRO CALLING

 

The day after the revolution is euphoric but always messy. The old order has crumbled, the dictator has been deposed, but the orderliness of the longed-for democracy is nowhere in sight. Egypt, after its glorious 18-day revolution, is in that inevitable but often unenviable state of uncertainty. And ordinary Egyptians are impatient to get their country in order. Even as internally Egypt is setting the pace of reforms — an army-appointed panel has proposed a set of constitutional reforms that will eventually be put to a public referendum — the international community has to step up in facilitating, as Cairo seems fit, its peaceful transition to democracy.

It is in this context that it was suggested, first by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a telephone conversation with External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and subsequently in her talks with Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, that India assist Egypt in conducting free and fair polls. While this is a nod to New Delhi's experience and expertise in conducting elections, it prudently responded to Clinton that it would wait for a request from the Egyptians themselves. Now sources say Egypt's main opposition party has welcomed such an assistance. India should be cooperative but also cautious. It should use its democratic credentials for the political transformation of a people whose memory of free and fair elections is rather distant. India's experience in Afghanistan, helping build its democratic institutions, training its parliament staff and election officials, should stand it in good stead too. But New Delhi should move into the politically volatile Egypt to bolster its ballots only when the call comes from a greater representation of Egyptians, who themselves are just working out the way out of a 30-year-long dictatorship, who are barely rolling out the blueprint of their future.

And when that happens, India should lend a hand to build Egypt's second republic.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

STANDING GROUND

 

The ministry of civil aviation not only wants a spanking new office for the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) but it also wants to turn the DGCA's current address, in the heart of central Delhi, into a residential complex for its staff. After the finance ministry and the ministry of urban development shot down the plan, and the change in land use, the ministry seems to have retreated. Meanwhile, the army has demanded another 109 acres of land in Dwarka to make room for defence personnel.

But this is typical of the way the state and its appendages have made themselves comfortable in all of Lutyens' Delhi and its neighbourhoods. The government squats on the entire area, even as the rest of the city struggles and hustles, trying to accommodate the growing demands of industry and commerce, and the sheer press of its population. This bubble of privilege (still referred to as the Delhi Imperial Zone, or DIZ, in municipal terminology) is shaded with splendid old trees, lavished with infrastructural attention — its greenery sustains the whole city, though it houses the fewest people. Meanwhile, the rest of Delhi has intense demands placed on it, from a combination of trade, service and industries. There is no question that we need to radically review our land-use patterns. Changing Lutyens' Delhi from a place where the powerful can ignore the real city, into a more diverse, mixed-use space is not only more seemly in a democracy, it would also ensure more efficient use of space.

Our absurd zoning laws mean that the best parts of town are taken over by PSUs and government departments, commissions and authorities with their squat, charmless buildings. There have been some moves towards changing this and easing the stress on central Delhi, including the idea that no new government offices should come up in the area and that existing structures be augmented for optimum usage. But for now, it doesn't look like the government intends to cede space anytime soon.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

COLUMN

THE SILVER BULLET OF REFORM

MK VENU

 

The political backdrop against which Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will unveil his annual budget statement today is quite critical. The budget comes at a time when the Congress party itself is undergoing a catharsis of sorts. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's nationally televised statement last week that the UPA government was totally committed to the next phase of economic and political reform came as the first real indication that the Congress was standing firmly behind him. Until a few months ago the dominant theme was the growing disconnect between the party and the government leadership on a host of issues, causing a drift in governance. This disruptive phase seems to be giving way to a new realisation that a strong dose of political economy reforms is needed to create confidence in the minds of the people at large.

The budget will try to lay the framework for some of these. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has taken the first crucial step by meeting senior opposition leaders and agreeing to a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) inquiry into the 2G scam.

More critically, Mukherjee will need the opposition's cooperation to implement the single biggest reform of India's political economy — the Goods and Services Tax (GST). It is not for nothing that the PM stated the importance of the GST in his recent press conference. Pranab Mukherjee is a seasoned politician, and is possibly the most qualified person in the Congress to work with the opposition to create a consensus on implementing the GST, which could transform the way India's economy is organised.

A single GST to be shared by the Centre and states will do away with the current, chaotic structure of cascading local taxes at the state level by collapsing them into a simplified single tax rate on goods and services.

GST is politically sensitive because it tries to reorganise the way taxes are to be collected by the states and the Centre without impinging on the federal powers of a state to levy taxes in areas under its jurisdiction. It is a delicate exercise, and needs someone like Pranab Mukherjee to pull it off. GST was promised by UPA 1 and its implementation was to kick off from April 2011. But under the new time schedule it is to start from April 2012.

So the forthcoming budget will have to lay down the timeframe for achieving various implementation milestones over the next six to nine months. A lot of the UPA's political capital and energy will be expended on working with the opposition to make GST a reality.

Why is GST so important, you may ask? GST is a bit like a magic bullet which has the potential to solve several long-term problems at one go. It is anti-inflationary, as it considerably reduces indirect taxes at the Central and state levels. Such an anti-inflationary move would be most welcome at a time when inflation is seen as a big political issue. The total incidence of indirect taxes at the Central and state levels is about 24 per cent at present. Under the proposed GST this will go down to 16 per cent by 2014. Goods and services will be that much cheaper. There can't be a bigger anti-inflationary roadmap. GST will attack black money in a big way, especially in the real-estate sector, which generates the maximum unaccounted wealth. BJP leader L.K. Advani talks about bringing back $500 billion worth of money stashed away by Indians abroad. But, by properly implementing GST, real-estate transactions worth nearly $200 billion annually can be brought under the indirect tax net. Once these become part of the formal economy, income from these activities will be taxed separately. Currently, the government loses both indirect tax as well as income tax from those who benefit from the $200 billion worth of transactions in the real-estate sector.

Today 40 per cent of all revenues earned by the states are from stamp duty levied on real-estate transactions. But the problem is that stamp duty revenue is only a fraction of what the states would actually earn if an extra $200 billion worth of real estate transactions are brought into the tax net every year.

The political significance of this should not be lost on anyone. Once real estate comes into the tax net, the nexus between politics and slush money from real estate can be exposed. So bringing real-estate transactions under GST is the surest way of cleansing Indian politics from its current ills.

In pure budgetary terms, the biggest upside that will come from implementing GST is a sustained boom in revenues over the medium to long term. This is the surest way to not only achieve long-term fiscal consolidation as per the new FRBM roadmap, but also pay for all the new social-sector programmes being devised by the UPA at present.

A review of the Indian economy by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council released last week says that "the implementation of GST can bring about significant improvement in revenue productivity. The hope of meeting additional resource requirements for food security, increased allocation to education and healthcare will critically depend on the implementation of GST and it therefore is important for both the Central and state governments."

Therefore, it is evident that the UPA is depending on the GST reform as the prime vehicle driving both fiscal consolidation and its social-sector spending programmes. There can't be a better win-win solution.

Just to get an idea of how GST would result in an explosion of revenue productivity, one needs to look at just one figure provided by a finance ministry task force which studied the upside the GST reform provides. The task force puts the potential value of transactions on which the Centre and states can collect GST at over Rs 35 lakh crore. At present, probably only 60 per cent of this transaction value is being taxed. The remaining 40 per cent represents a fresh source of revenue as these transactions are outside the tax net. India could really shine when all this black turns white.

The writer is Managing Editor, 'The Financial Express'

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

DAYS OF DOWNLOADS

SHUBHRA GUPTA

 

Around January every year, a chirpy fellow who mans a tiny kiosk in my neighbourhood becomes my best friend. We'll call him P, and you'll know in a moment why I'm being so discreet.

Because what P does is illegal. He's a bootlegger, not of the stuff you quaff out of glasses, but of movies that have no chance of ever arriving in our theatres, or arrive too late to be of use to man or beast, or arrive mauled

beyond recognition or redemption by our censors.

There are now perfectly above-board ways to obtain fine French or Argentinian or Chilean or Australian wine. Try doing that with movies, even award-winning ones from these countries, and I'll show you a parched movie-goer.

I know what P does is questionable. I also know by giving him my custom, I am complicit. Every time he sends over his rider with a goodie-bag, I'm being party to something that I have, in the past, written about and condemned. Piracy kills the movie business like nothing else; if I have access to a film for a tenth of the price I will pay in the theatre, why would I ever buy a ticket?

Ah, but here's the rub. If a P didn't do what he does, with great efficiency and speed, I would be bereft of the films I absolutely have to watch. My job demands that I need to have seen all the films that I possibly can, especially those that win laurels at major global festivals, as soon as they start coming out.

Many of those films will never be released here, for various reasons. Sometimes the subject matter is an inhibiting factor (Hollywood studio reps learn very soon to tell you that only "creature features" work in India, or mega-budget "actioners"; and that rom-coms have only a niche within the niche). At other times, it is "excessive nudity or violence", though I've always wondered on what basis that "excess" is decided.

A couple of recent examples show up huge confusion amongst those who decide what we can see, and what we can't: Alejandro Inarritu's Biutiful was hacked mercilessly; whereas No Strings Attached had a whole series of vigorous romps between the pretty Portman and the hunky Kutcher, and dialogue that had steam clouding the theatre. How is one okay and not the other?

I've become much less of a hardliner on the subject now that I have learnt to love technology, and those that use it to keep ahead of the movie curve. I get films through the kindness of geek friends. I'm learning, very quickly for an old-time film critic, to say these words out loud: "downloads" and "rips". I've begun using them with great flourish now, and I'm not even looking guiltily around to see who is watching, or is within earshot. A friend talked of "piracy being the greatest form of democracy" just before he mailed me the first instalment of a terrific Swedish crime thriller in three parts, you know which one. I'm not sure I agreed completely with his airy description — but did I come all over huffy and refuse? Ha.

Before I chanced upon P, and my network of pirate pals, I had, on my speed-dial, another resourceful rogue who has a shop in the Capital's seedy underground market. Let's call him S. Having been introduced to him by a colleague who'd been going to him for years, I was to be trusted: when I first met S, he demanded a visiting card, which he promptly placed alongside all the others he had. I knew most of the people who were on S's regular roster. His reasoning was simple: if all these "journalist-type" people were frequenting him, he was famous.

And he was. Several people I shepherded towards him knew of his existence, or had been to his outlet which kept the regular stuff on the ground floor, and stacked all the "festival" movies in a makeshift mezzanine you climbed to, via a twisty staircase. (You could also, if you wished, get access to some hardcore X-rated stuff, but then S knew his customers, sizing you up in one swift up-and-down glance: "aapko woh festival-waali films chahiye, na?") It was all very Dickensian and sooty: S reaching behind him, getting out piles and piles of CDs and DVDs of all the cinematic greats you could think of. If he didn't have it, he promised he would get it. And what's more, if the disc didn't work, he would cheerfully take it back, and give you another.

S is now my Plan C. My friends see to it that I am well-supplied; the slack is taken up by P, who acts miffed every time I pass by without picking up something. But the main thing is that I've, yes, seen That Film. Or All Those Films. So sue me.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD ON

SUSHILKUMARMODI

 

As we enter the new financial year, one of the most pressing and involving debates for Bihar at the moment is the need to minimise the number of Centrally sponsored schemes, and giving the states more latitude to plan their welfare schemes. Under 300-odd Central schemes, we get "tied funds" — tied, because a state government is bound to pool in a fixed percentage as the state's share to avail these Central schemes. Second, a state government is bound by several guidelines and riders.

Just sample these figures: Bihar had to earmark Rs 1,300 crore as its 35 per cent share under the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan (SSA) in 2010-11. Now with the Right to Education Act, the Centre has asked states to bear 25 per cent share, which would simply mean that Bihar will have to spare, rather manage, Rs 7,500 crore. We have urged the Centre to accept a 90:10 Centre-state formula for successful RTE implementation. Health and education alone make Bihar set apart funds in excess of Rs 2,500 crore every year, more than 12-13 per cent of our annual plan size. I wonder why the Central government cannot give more space to states in preparing need-based schemes. A state should be given the freedom to know its entitlement, to optimise development funds. A consolidated fund from the Centre is all that we have been asking for. In any case, a state government will give compliance to the Centre on how and where the fund was used.

I, along with finance ministers of several states in 2009, put forward a joint memorandum before the 13th Finance Commission, which, in turn, had duly recommended that the Union government minimise Centrally sponsored schemes. There has been precedence, with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government curtailing Centre-sponsored schemes during its tenure. The then-Union agriculture minister and now Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar had made an integrated scheme, merging 39 schemes. Addressing a National Development Council meeting on July 24, 2010, Nitish Kumar said: "The 13th Finance Commission had also recommended that initiative should be taken to reduce the number of one-size-fits-all Centrally sponsored schemes." The CM further added that "these schemes often have no provision for the implementation machinery and the state's existing staff have to execute these programmes in addition to their already heavy workload". Untied funds are, all the more, the need of the hour as the gross budgetary support allocation to a state has come down from 34 to 23 per cent while it has gone up from 66 to 77 per cent for the Central sector.

It is not a matter of political parties, ideologies or state governments. During a meeting of finance ministers from several states with the Union finance minister in 2009, there had been a uniform demand for this. We believe the Centre has taken note of our cumulative concern.

A consolidated fund from the Centre can be best utilised in core areas of development — health, education, energy, roads and the social sector. There is a Central scheme that gives Rs 2 crore for starting a model school in every block but it comes with a big rider — the state must allocate five acres of land for each such school. If this rider is waived, a state government can build two or three schools with that Rs 2 crore, following most criteria of a model school.

This is where Centrally sponsored schemes have become deterrents rather than a true means of change. Another scheme, called the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Scheme, is sanctioned afresh only after completion of the first scheme. Can a state government wait for three years to get a second scheme? It is about too many guidelines and riders obfuscating the real motto — development. Untied schemes are best suited for a state's progress. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has taken it up at National Development Council meetings and various others. It is time the UPA government changed the rules of the game. They may well choose key sectors to mandate a Centrally sponsored scheme, but having 300-odd schemes is leading us nowhere. We do not have any reservations against MNREGA, guided by an act of Parliament, but let there be a select few of such schemes. Besides, uniform guidelines for all Indian states may not work. Bihar's needs could be different from Tamil Nadu or Kerala, and vice versa.

We have been stressing on direct cash transfer to beneficiaries to stop leakage in the public distribution system. Can the Centre not start it on pilot basis? We also demand that the Centre bring in the right to shelter act, to ensure houses for families below the poverty line.

— As told to Santosh Singh

Sushil Kumar Modi is deputy chief minister and finance minister of Bihar

 

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THREE MEN AND A BURNING QUESTION

INDER MALHOTRA

 

There is no way the inextricably intertwined story of the Suez War, ('East of Suez', IE, January 24) and Soviet repression of the popular revolt in Hungary, ('The art of intervention', IE, February 14), the two events of tremendous importance in their time, can be completed without a brief account of Jawaharlal Nehru's detailed talks on the subject with President Dwight Eisenhower of the United States and Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai. These parleys contributed to a solution of the Suez issue and the stabilisation of the situation in Hungary, though under a government installed by Moscow.

Shortly after the ceasefire came into force along the nationalised Suez Canal in early December 1956, Nehru travelled to the US in response to a standing invitation from Washington and held long talks with Eisenhower at the latter's farm at Gettysburg. Even more prolonged were the talks between Nehru and Zhou. Since the visiting dignitary wanted to see the Bhakra Nangal Dam in Punjab, they first met there on the last day of 1956, and then continued their dialogue during the rail journey back to Delhi. With only two interpreters present, their conversation lasted till the wee hours of the morning, interrupted only by a short ceremony to welcome the New Year.

Briefing Zhou on his discussions in the US, Nehru disclosed that Eisenhower had suggested that the clearance of the Suez Canal, a decision on its future, and Israel's right to use it must be settled at the same time. But Nehru told him — and the US president eventually agreed — that the canal's clearance and an amicable settlement on its future should have the first priority, and the Israel issue taken up when passions had subsided. "Israel," Nehru had said, "could not disappear from the map and, at the same time the very existence of Israel infuriated the Arabs." Therefore, it was better to wait for a "more reasonable atmosphere" to take up the ticklish problem.

Highly significant was Ike's statement on the Anglo-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt, as summed up by Nehru: The invasion had come as a "great shock" to him (Eisenhower) and he had "insisted on disapproving it — even though his advisers had "tried to restrain him" because they were "afraid this might affect the Jewish vote in the (forthcoming US) elections". One might add, parenthetically, that more than half a century later, in the midst of the "Arab spring" this factor remains a major diving force in American politics and policy.

On Hungary, Eisenhower said to Nehru that while Britain and France had accepted the UN resolution and withdrawn their forces from Egypt, the Soviet army had not withdrawn from Hungary, and in the presence of foreign troops no solution was possible. More notably, Ike repeatedly expressed his apprehension about the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc "creeping in and filling the vacuum in the Middle East created by the ending of the British and French influence and thus get a grip on the Middle East". He was unconvinced by Nehru's comment that this was not feasible under the existing circumstances because "the Soviet government had been hurt so much by the Hungarian rising that it was not at all likely to invite further trouble". He also pointed out to Eisenhower that in Russia, the "basic fear was that of a re-armed Germany".

Zhou Enlai's elaborate response to Nehru's presentation was remarkable for revealing that differences between him and his host were much greater than those between the US president and India's prime minister. On Suez and the Middle East he agreed almost completely with Nehru's stand. But he had no time for Nehru's estimate that the US, and President Eisenhower in particular, was opposed to the Anglo-French-Israeli aggression and had taken steps to halt it. Zhou contended that while deploring the invasion of Egypt publicly, the US had "encouraged it secretly". On Hungary, disagreement between the two prime ministers was almost complete.

In Nehru's words, Zhou "stuck to the Soviet line on Hungary throughout". The Hungarian question and the Egyptian question, the Chinese premier said, were different in character. "Our view is that the Soviet army's going to Hungary cannot be compared with British and French invasion in [sic] Egypt." Zhou went on arguing, "Western powers were carrying out subversive activities designed to overthrow socialist governments and (dragging) these countries into the Western camp." It was for this reason that the Hungarian government

had asked the USSR to come in under the Warsaw Treaty.

Nehru replied that while there were "some external subversive elements, they formed only a small part of the trouble. It was mainly a national uprising (whose) object was not so much to change the internal regime as to get rid of foreign domination, namely, that of Soviet Union ... Our information is that originally the movement was not directed against the USSR but turned anti-Soviet when workers and youth were shot. That 20,000 Hungarians are reported to be dead and in a city like Budapest 1,000 tanks were required shows the extent of the uprising".

There was a lot else of great importance in Nehru's talk with both Ike and Zhou — ranging from Tibet to the Baghdad Pact to Sino-US relations — but none of these is relevant to the twin issues of Suez and Hungary. Nehru's overall verdict is, however, eminently worth quoting: "Recent events in Egypt have shown that world opinion is strong enough to prevail against aggression of stronger powers against weaker nations. The events in Hungary have revealed that communism could not succeed in a country unless it was allied to nationalism." Privately, Nehru also told several of his confidants that one of the results of the Suez misadventure had been that its main instigator, British Prime Minister Anthony Eden, was thrown out. Harold Macmillan was named his successor — "to the surprise of everyone except himself", according to British historians.

Perhaps the most devastating comment on Suez and Hungary came from Thanu of

The Indian Express who drew a brilliant cartoon that depicted Khrushchev and Bulganin, with blood dripping from their sleeves, saying to each other: "Let's go and wash our hands in the canal".

The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

CHECK THE PATIENT, NOT JUST THE SCAN

 

Imaging the body has become so easy. When I was an intern some 30 years ago, about three million CT scans were performed annually in the US; now the number is more like 80 million. Imaging tests are now responsible for half of the overall radiation Americans are exposed to, compared with about 15 per cent in 1980.

With that radiation exposure comes increasing risk for cancer, but what worries me even more is that this ease of ordering a scan has caused doctors' most basic skills in examining the body to atrophy. This loss is palpable when American medical trainees go to hospitals and clinics abroad with few resources: it can be quite humbling to see doctors in Africa and South America detect fluid around patients' lungs not with X-rays but by percussing the chest with their fingers and listening with their stethoscopes.

Of course, we still teach medical students how to properly examine the body. In dedicated physical diagnosis courses, students learn how to do a complete exam of the body's systems. But all that training can be undone the moment the students hit their clinical years. Then, they discover that the currency on the ward seems to be getting tests ordered and getting results, having procedures like colonoscopies done expeditiously, calling in specialists, arranging discharge.

The consequence of losing both faith and skill in examining the body is that we miss simple things, and we order more tests and subject people to the dangers of radiation unnecessarily. Just a few weeks ago, I heard of a patient who arrived in an E.R. in extremis with seizures and breathing difficulties. After being stabilised and put on a breathing machine, she was taken for a CT scan of the chest, to rule out blood clots to the lung; but when the radiologist looked at the results, she turned out to have tumours in both breasts, along with the secondary spread of cancer all over the body.

In retrospect, her cancer should have been discovered long before the radiologist found it; before the emergency, the patient had been seen several times and at different places, for symptoms that were probably related to the cancer. I got to see the CT scan: the tumour masses were visible to the naked eye — and certainly to the hand. Yet they had never been noted.

Too frequently, I hear of (and in a study we are conducting, I am collecting) stories like that from all across the country. They represent a type of error that stems from not making use of basic bedside skills, not asking the patient to fully disrobe. It is a more subtle kind of error than operating on the wrong limb; indeed, this sort of mistake is not always recognised, and yet the consequences can be grave.

In my experience, being skilled at examining the body has a salutary effect beyond finding important clues that lead to an early diagnosis. It is a ritual that remains important to the patient. Recently my ward team admitted an elderly woman who had been transferred from her nursing home in the night because of a change in her mental status. A CT of the head and all other tests were determined to be normal; the problem had been dehydration, and she was better, ready to go back. But the patient's lawyer daughter was unhappy with the plan to return her mother to the nursing home, and was waiting impatiently to see me and contest the transfer.

After introducing myself to the patient and to her daughter, I did a thorough but quick neurologic exam. I put the patient through her paces: mental status, cranial nerves, motor and sensory function, used my reflex hammer and pointed out interesting things along the way to my interns and students. I then said to the daughter that her mother seemed back to normal. To our surprise, the daughter seemed comforted, and now had no objection to her mother's return to the nursing home. We all felt that the daughter witnessing the examination of the patient, that ritual, was the key to earning both their trusts.

I find that patients from almost any culture have deep expectations of a ritual when a doctor sees them, and they are quick to perceive when he or she gives those procedures short shrift and wrapping up in 30 seconds. Rituals are about transformation, the crossing of a threshold, and in the case of the bedside exam, the transformation is the cementing of the doctor-patient relationship, a way of saying: "I will see you though this illness. I will be with you through thick and thin." It is paramount that doctors not forget the importance of this ritual.

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THE INDIAN EXPRESS

OPED

THE MORAL CLARITY OF THE ARAB CROWD

 

Perhaps this Arab Revolution of 2011 had a scent for the geography of grief and cruelty. It erupted in Tunisia, made its way to Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, then doubled back to Libya. In Tunisia and Egypt, political freedom seems to have prevailed, with relative ease, amid popular joy. Back in Libya, the counter-revolution made its stand, and a despot bereft of mercy declared war against his own people. There is no middle ground here, no splitting of the difference.

Over the decades, Arabs took the dictators' bait, chanted their names and believed their promises. They averted their gazes from the great crimes. Out of malice or bigotry, that old "Arab street" had nothing to say about the terror inflicted on Shiites and Kurds in Iraq, for Saddam Hussein was beloved by the crowds, a pan-Arab hero, an enforcer of Sunni interests. Nor did many Arabs take notice in 1978 when Imam Musa al-Sadr, the leader of the Shiites of Lebanon, disappeared while on a visit to Libya. Colonel Gaddafi had money to throw around, and the scribes sang his praise.

The tumult in Arab politics began in the 1950s and 1960s, when rulers rose and fell with regularity. They were struck down by assassins or defied by political forces that had their own sources of strength and belief. New men, from more humble social classes, rose to power through the military and radical political parties. By the 1980s, give or take a few years, in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Algeria and Yemen, a new political creature had taken hold: repressive "national security states" with awesome means of control and terror. The new men were pitiless, they reordered the political world, they killed with abandon; a world of cruelty had settled upon the Arabs. In the public space, there was now the cult of the rulers, the unbounded power of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi and Hafez al-Assad in Syria and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia. The traditional restraints on power had been swept away and no new social contract between ruler and ruled had emerged.

Fear was now the glue of politics, and in the more prosperous states the ruler's purse did its share in the consolidation of state terror. A huge Arab prison had been constructed, and a once-proud people had been reduced to submission. Yet, as they aged, the coup-makers and political plotters of the yesteryears sprouted rapacious dynasties; they became "country owners," as a distinguished liberal Egyptian scholar and diplomat once put it to me. Shame — a great, disciplining force in the Arab life of old — quit Arab lands. Today's rebellions are animated, above all, by a desire to be cleansed of the stain and guilt of having given in to the despots for so long. Elias Canetti gave this phenomenon its timeless treatment in his 1960 book Crowds and Power. A crowd comes together, he reminded us, to expiate its guilt, to be done, in the presence of others, with old sins and failures.

There is no marker, no dividing line, that establishes with precision when and why the Arab people grew weary of dictators. To the extent that such tremendous ruptures can be pinned down, this rebellion was an inevitable response to the stagnation of the Arab economies. The so-called youth bulge made for a combustible background; a new generation with knowledge of the world beyond came into its own. Then, too, the legends of Arab nationalism that had sustained two generations had expired. Younger men and women had wearied of the old obsession with Palestine. The revolution was waiting to happen, and one deed of despair in Tunisia, a street vendor who out of frustration set himself on fire, pushed the old order over the brink.

There is no overstating the importance of the fact that these Arab revolutions are the works of the Arabs themselves. No foreign gunboats were coming to the rescue, the cause of their emancipation would stand or fall on its own. Intuitively, these protesters understood the rulers had been sly, they had convinced Western democracies that it was either the tyrants' writ or the prospect of mayhem and chaos.

Massimo d'Azeglio, a Piedmontese aristocrat who wrote, what for me are the most arresting words about liberty's promise and its perils: "The gift of liberty is like that of a horse, handsome, strong and high-spirited. In some it arouses a wish to ride; in many others, on the contrary, it increases the urge to walk." For decades, Arabs walked and cowered in fear. Now they seem eager to take freedom's ride. Wisely, they are paying no heed to those who wish to speak to them of liberty's risks. Fouad Ajami

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

OFF-BUDGET CONCERNS

Whatever the government announces in the Budget a few hours from now, the reaction of investors will largely depend upon how the government addresses three major non-NAC concerns of theirs—the National Advisory Council's food bill, among other proposals, is of course a serious concern as our main column today argues. The first is the fact that interest rates are hardening quite rapidly—coupled with the increased attractiveness of the US as an investment destination for portfolio investors, that will mean animal spirits will take a while longer to return. While IDFC, Power Finance Corporation and L&T Infrastructure have been offering 7.5-8% interest rates on tax-saving infrastructure bonds, retail investors haven't really lapped them up—SBI, on the other hand, has got a good response to its bonds that are offering 9.75% for 10 years and 9.95% for 15 years. This is bad news for infrastructure as well as for general investments. How the government tackles this will be interesting.

Two, the government's intent on tackling subsidies will be judged not by what it does in the budget, but what it does afterwards, on increasing prices of petroleum products. Oil PSUs are likely to bear a burden of around Rs 80,000 crore in the current year, and that's a number that doesn't get included in the budget numbers—even before the trouble on Arab Street erupted, global oil prices were projected to remain over $100, so the oil PSUs are certain to lose a lot more money in 2011-12. Some lowering of customs duties is likely, but leaves the problem largely untouched—the oil subsidies the PSUs bear are almost equal to the rest of the subsidies, around Rs 1,00,000 crore or so per year.

Three, the government's attitude towards Cairn-Vedanta. Vedanta's purchase of Cairn has been held up due to the previous minister's refusal to allow ONGC to continue to pay royalties on Cairn's oil production. He wanted Cairn to start paying its royalty share, but Cairn has refused to do so on the grounds that ONGC is contractually obligated to do this—when foreign investors were in short supply, the government wooed them by saying the royalties would be paid by ONGC. And ONGC got a 30% equity stake for doing so. Since the oil ministry doesn't want to take a decision that appears to be hurting an oil PSU, it has lobbed the decision to the Cabinet—it meets on March 3 to decide. Today's Budget, and the signals it sends, are important, but investors are looking to more than just words in a Budget speech.

 

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

EDITORIAL

FOOD FUTURE 2050

In explaining away persistent food inflation, the government has repeatedly cited climate and global factors as culprits. Critics have been equally persistent in arguing that home-grown policies ranging across agriculture, FDI, infrastructure, logistics and retailing could have acted as strong counterpoints to food inflation if only they had been implemented. As we await whether the budget will signal that the government is moving into appropriate gear to do this now, the latest issue of The Economist, with a special report on "feeding the world"—underlining that neither climate nor global market factors will be providing a respite any time soon—tots up additional imperatives for the same. Population projections suggest that the planet will bear the equivalent of two extra Indias by 2050. That's the future. In the present, we know that food prices have played some role in fomenting the political unrest gripping the Middle East and North Africa (also remember the food riots of 2008). We know that the heat waves that spread across the former USSR last summer sharply cut down the world's grain supply. If rains don't go right in China this year, as is being feared, this will severely aggravate the grain shortfalls. La Niña-linked phenomena have caused floods in Australia too, again affecting supply. If the unpredictability of weather has become predictable, how often can our government use it to excuse supply disruptions?

Worse, International Food Policy Research Institute studies show that yields in 2050 will likely be lower than they were in 2000, in a business as usual scenario. Rising fertiliser prices (which track oil prices) and falling water tables aren't helping. Not much virgin land remains out there. Biological advances that engendered the first Green Revolution look like they are reaching their limit, making it harder and harder to deliver a second one. All in all, the yield challenge means that increasing food supplies by 70% in the next 40 years, as would be needed by the two extra Indias, may prove harder than it was to raise them by 150% in the previous 40. Better technology provides the strongest beacon of hope, whether this means narrowing the gap between the worst and best producers (where India obviously has a lot of potential) or widening the prevalence of GM crops (which the magazine calls the most promising source of food growth). Imagine the legume roots ability to convert soil nitrogen into ammonia, the feedstock of nitrogen fertiliser, being genetically transferred to wheat! And then imagine short-term, populist sloganeering being able to give Indian long-term food security.

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

CAN THE UPA CHANGE ITS SPOTS?
SUNIL JAIN

Jairam Ramesh and A Raja. By and large, the two have been seen as the biggest spoilers of the India story. Collectively, they are believed to have ensured India's FDI levels plummeted, from a projected $50 bn by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) for 2010-11 to a likely $27.5 bn. While Jairam gave big investors like Posco and Vedanta a hard time (ably assisted by Murli Deora in the latter case!), Raja's rapaciousness ensured the best-functioning sector in the economy became the worst performer.

But one is in jail on corruption charges, and the other seems to have had a rapid change of heart, given the way he is now clearing projects he would have earlier summarily dismissed as environmental disasters. Parliament is functioning again, the Prime Minister seems more confident and is using the G word (growth, not Gandhi) a lot more often, saying it will not be sacrificed at even the altar of inflation, the holiest of holy cows in the country … Has the UPA got back its mojo? That fits in with the new narrative doing the rounds, that the Congress always performs best under pressure (the 1991 reforms would never have happened if we didn't have to ship our gold to the IMF), the party has now firmly thrown its lot behind the PM. Notice how there's not a murmur from the finance ministry on the PM's statement that the ministry agreed with Raja on the price to be charged from the new entrants. The finance ministry's letters, annexed to the Justice Patil report, the finance ministry's statements to the CAG last year, and even the then finance secretary's statements to the Public Accounts Committee make it abundantly clear the ministry didn't agree with Raja, but the ministry and the then minister P Chidambaram are maintaining a stony silence.

So will the markets move later in the day as the government talks reforms, even if it can't immediately deliver on them? This could include, for instance, a government commitment to look at state funding of elections (mostly seen as the reason why there's so much corruption today), a promise to look at more direct cash transfers once the results of the Nilekani pilot project come in, higher disinvestment targets, a timeline for implementing GST, including the announcement of setting up of an IT-backbone for it. Indeed, some good political management, completely missing so far, could see various legislative agenda on insurance, pension, banking and perhaps even coal mining go through.

Ordinarily, this should be more than good enough. But after so many years of not just zero reform, but anti-reform, the government has to battle that much more to convince investors it means well. So a Murli Deora is succeeded by a Jaipal Reddy, who looks even less likely to clear the Cairn-Vedanta deal; while the government talks of freeing up educational institutions, a number of B-schools want to take it to court and private schools are up in arms over the havoc the newly-minted Right to Education is wreaking (hopefully, the universalisation plan for secondary education won't lead to an RTE+); while the battle between the National Advisory Council and the PMEAC continues on the contours of the proposed food security Bill, the Prime Minister told Parliament he was committed to the Bill; the proposed 26% equity share for tribals in the mining Bill continues to make investors shudder and we've seen how the Forest Rights Act was abused to deny permission to the Posco project.

To be fair, the Prime Minister is doing his best to delay or water down the really bad proposals. The reason why the PMEAC locked horns with the NAC on the proposed food security Bill was precisely because the Prime Minister wanted to ensure the scheme didn't become one big boondoggle; reliable sources say Murli Deora's 2% CSR cess will, in all likelihood, get shelved. The pressures, however, are tremendous, and they won't go away till Sonia Gandhi changes her view on the social agenda the government has to fulfil. An analysis of the 2007-08 round of the NSS by Surjit Bhalla (carried in FE on February 24) showed the government spent Rs 10,800 crore in 2007-08 to deliver Rs 3,833 crore of NREGA wages, that's an efficiency level of just around a third. And now the government is under pressure to increase the funding for the NREGA. How many self-goals can the Prime Minister possibly block?

Telecom is a good example. Getting rid of A Raja, it seems, was the easy bit. You'd have thought this would have freed up precious spectrum for the existing telcos to use, especially since the government's own Justice Patil committee has said the Raja licences were illegal, but the government seems in no hurry to cancel the licences—indeed, it filed an affidavit explaining why cancelling some licences was a bad idea (http://www.financialexpress.com/

news/fe-editorial-its-just-a-law-guys/ 753893/). The regulator has come up with a recommendation that will further hit the older players while continuing to give the players Raja favoured an easy ride (http://www.financialexpress.com/news/fe-editorial-broad-spectrum-trouble/748068/).

And since the government is committed to defending the Raja policy, this is causing more problems. The defence is curious since when the PM says the policy was right but Raja distorted its implementation, he's saying there would have been no loss to the exchequer had the licences been given to another set of 122 firms!—even non-economists can see the argument is self-serving and bereft of logic. Apart from being ridiculous, the government's stand is also heightening the tension between the UPA and the BJP (on whom the PM tried to pin the blame for even the Antrix deal, apart from the 2G mess!). At a time when the government needs the BJP's help to get critical legislation through (the GST is clearly going nowhere if the BJP opposes it as it has to be passed by state legislatures as well), such a strident attack serves little purpose. The wisdom or the lack of it, however, will get clear only as the Budget session progresses.

sunil.jain@expressindia.com

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THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

COLUMN

MID-LIFE CRISIS
AMITENDU PALIT

Is Asia getting caught in the 'middle income' trap? Unnoticed by many, some countries of Asia, which began their economic march with great promise, have reached points from where they are showing little signs of moving ahead. These economies include several from Southeast Asia. Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia are four economies, which, in the not-too-distant past, had been labelled as vibrant Asian cubs ready to join the ranks of regional tigers like Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. The hopes, however, have remained unfulfilled.

Among the countries that were middle income in the 1960s, except for those in Western Europe and the Asian tigers mentioned above, the rest have not been able to rise to the high-income category. Around 75% of the middle-income countries of the 1960s continue to remain so. The World Bank classifies lower middle-income and upper middle-income economies at income brackets of $976-3,855 and $3,856-11,905, respectively. Movement among developing countries from the lower to the upper brackets has been noticeably low in the last few decades.

The 'middle income' trap is a situation where countries having progressed from low to middle income levels get stuck at that level. Despite having made good progress on several fronts, the problem that the trapped countries face is raising and maintaining their growth rates at levels that remain well above the growth rates of their populations. It is not enough to place the growth rate of the economy in a trajectory well above that of the population; economic growth must continue to remain in the high trajectory for a good number of years to ensure that per capita incomes continue to rise. This is what the current high-income countries have been able to do and what the middle-income countries are unable to do.

But why do countries get stuck at middle income? It is argued that it is much easier to rise from low income to middle income than from middle income to high income. In the early stages, there are several drivers that lead to high growth. Cheap labour is surely one of these. The Southeast Asian economic saga is an excellent example of how low wages coupled with aggressive policies make nations competitive in labour-intensive manufacturing. The flying geese had fanned out from Japan to Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, and then further to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines for taking advantage of low wages. But unfortunately wages do not remain sticky for decades altogether. Once they begin rising, production methods need to change. Manufacturers need to climb up the value chain to higher-end operations. But that requires indigenous R&D and innovation more than anything else. This is where several economies falter. This is where South Korea and Taiwan have scored, while Malaysia and Thailand have not been able to.

Several middle-income countries, particularly those in Asia, have not paid as much importance to innovations and technological leaps as they should have. One of the major factors separating high-income economies from the rest is their technological capacity. Technological capacity includes technology infrastructure, innovative capabilities and availability of technically skilled manpower. These attributes are unevenly distributed among middle-income countries. For Southeast Asian economies like Thailand and Malaysia, who are used to assembling products designed elsewhere with abundant help of imported technology, innovation has been a relatively neglected aspect. As a result, they have been stuck in assembling operations. While their overall technological infrastructures may not be poor in terms of mobile and computer penetrations, they have lagged behind in R&D and innovation. At the same time, slow growth in technological maturity has stunted skills of the domestic workforce, whose technical capacities have remained limited.

What are the drivers of innovation? R&D most certainly, but by whom? Multinationals invest significantly in R&D and are drivers of some of the most important research in global industrial development. But this does not mean that the state does not have a role. Middle-income countries appear to miss out on the virtuous nexus between government, industry, technical institutions and universities that has been a highly successful driver of innovations in high-income countries. Indeed, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan are clear examples of this virtuous interface. Unfortunately, the other promising Asian economies have not been able to work out the network to their advantage.

As middle-income-trap experts argue, it is easier to climb from low to middle, rather than racing from middle to high. The second involves extracting much greater productivity gains from an already structured economy. Structuring from scratch is simpler than restructuring an existing framework. The latter requires being creative and constructive. That certainly is not everybody's cup of tea, as the Asian experience shows.

The author is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore. These are his personal views

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

The Economic Survey 2010-11 is positive on the macroeconomy without glossing over the challenges. The economy's resilience is seen in its ability to withstand two shocks in quick succession. The ripple effects of the global economic crisis (2007-09) that devastated world growth, trade, and finances have persisted in the form of the European fiscal crisis. On the domestic front, the farm sector that saw a negative growth in 2008-09 was further hit by erratic monsoons, severe drought, and unseasonal rains in two successive years. Despite this, the economy is poised to grow at rates seen during the pre-crisis period. On top of an estimated 8.6 per cent growth during the current year, the economy is projected to grow at 9 per cent during 2011-12. The optimistic forecasts as well as the downside risks are in line with the assessment of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. The services sector, for long "the power house of the economy", with a more than 57 per cent share of the GDP in 2009-10, has started gaining momentum. That should augur well for the medium term growth prospects. Another favourable feature is that India's demographic dividend is yet to peak. The growing trend in savings and investment rates should benefit from the gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures by the government. In a message that could be a pointer to the strategy in the Budget, the Survey notes that once the economy operates around full capacity, it is not the savings and investment rates that will drive growth but skills development and innovation.

The major downside risks to growth are weather, a disproportionate spike in petroleum prices, and a slowdown in the advanced economies. Inflation and a large current account deficit are major concerns. The Survey cautions that higher growth and a faster monetisation of the economy, through financial inclusion, may mean increased money supply and hence more inflationary pressures. It has recommended a phased entry of foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, apparently in response to the concerns of farmers and consumers. That should also add to stable capital flows. Given its upbeat tone on growth, the Finance Minister is expected to meet the fiscal targets. As part of its reform agenda, the Survey calls for a streamlining of land acquisition and environment clearance procedures, using smart cards to target subsidy payments and issuance of basic banking licences. There should be an unrelenting thrust on infrastructure development. None of these is new or visionary but the Survey has stressed the doable and underlined the priorities in a way that demonstrates pragmatism.

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THE HINDU

EDITORIAL

CUTTING PLASTIC WASTE

The Plastic Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 2011 notified by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, should be viewed by State governments and municipal authorities as a good blueprint for a much-needed civic clean-up. The Central Pollution Control Board estimates the consumption of plastic products in India to be of the order of eight million tonnes a year. This ranges from shopping bags to household and industrial material. The volume of plastic waste is approximately 15,300 tonnes a day. It is welcome, therefore, that the new rules take into account the significant growth in waste generation, predominantly in the form of carry bags and multi-layered packaging, and call for a paradigm shift in the way it is collected, sorted, and disposed of. What is perhaps most significant is the formal recognition given to waste pickers in the management chain. As Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh has suggested, these labourers, now largely in the informal sector, must be constructively engaged by municipal authorities. Other laudable aspects of the rules include the stipulation of benchmarked Indian Standards for recycling facilities, mandatory pricing of consumer carry bags given by retailers, a labelling scheme, and introduction of extended producer responsibility for manufacturers to fund the creation of collection centres. The importance given to compostable plastics — defined as material that can be degraded through biological processes yielding carbon dioxide, water, inorganic compounds and biomass residue — can potentially reduce the use of traditional plastics.

Municipal authorities and State pollution control boards must use the momentum provided by the new rules to move away from business as usual on waste management. It is apparent that urban India has been a laggard in implementing the Municipal Solid Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 2000, defeating the objective of the Environment (Protection) Act under which they were made. The new rules on plastics can help solve a major part of the national garbage crisis. Municipal corporations and other local bodies are obligated to ensure that the waste is properly segregated and recycled. They have little to fear by way of financial burden, as the cost of plastics use is to be borne by the producers and consumers. Implementing the provisions will have a salutary effect on the ecology of cities and towns where uncollected plastic waste clogs stormwater drains, rivers, and lakes. Moreover, the revised technical specifications for carry bags should make them attractive to recyclers as they will be thicker at 40 microns, up from 20 microns. Resolute action must follow.

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THE HINDU

LEADER PAGE ARTICLES

LIBYA: IN THE THROES OF CHANGE

MUAMMAR QADHAFI NO LONGER HAS INFLUENTIAL FRIENDS WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY WHO CAN BAIL HIM OUT. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW WILL HE GO, AND WHAT WILL REPLACE HIM?

ATUL ANEJA

The political survival of Muammar Qadhafi, Libya's strongman for 42 years, is under serious threat. Much of this has to do with the transformation of the opposition, now closing in on the capital Tripoli. It had started an unarmed campaign for change but, in the face of excessive State violence, has transformed itself dramatically into an armed revolutionary movement.

With the uprising raging, and eastern Libya already under opposition control, the regime's survival is now almost out of the equation. Mr. Qadhafi no longer has influential friends within and outside Libya who can bail him out. The question now is how will he go, and what will replace him? Will the regime collapse suddenly, the end brought about by a coup, or will it disappear after a brief civil war, when the debilitating ranks of Mr. Qadhafi's loyal forces, make their last stand to defend Tripoli? Alternatively, could there be an unlikely sting in the tail, which might reveal itself in a war of attrition, between Qadhafi-loyalists, whose numbers and commitment the world has underestimated, and the opposition forces, now rapidly advancing along Libya's eastern Mediterranean coastline towards Tripoli?

Mr. Qadhafi's problems have become insurmountable because he has a very thin support base left. For decades he has not been critically challenged because his regime has adopted a combination of selective tribal patronage and co-option, made possible on account of a windfall in oil revenues, and the fear that police states can instill in their citizens. In the initial years, after the 1969 coup that brought him to power, Mr. Qadhafi's firm commitment, in the footsteps of Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser, to revolutionary Arab nationalism, did earn him accolades at home. But when the cost of raising legions to enforce Arab unity from Sudan to Palestine became prohibitively high, and hefty oil revenues did not lead to more food on the table, Mr. Qadhafi's social contract with fellow-Libyans began to fray.

The slow accumulation of woes over the last four decades, finally appear to have exploded, leading to his undoing. Some of the resentment has come from the state of the economy. Despite Libya's status as a leading oil exporter, large sections of Libyans live on an income of less than two dollars a day.

Then, there are the forces of sub-nationalism, which refuse to go, partly because Mr. Qadhafi's personality cult, a lack of pluralistic institutions, and a denial of civil liberties that has disallowed Libyan nationalism to flower.

For long, Libya's east, which was a part of the traditional Cyrenaica, as well as the ruling power centre under the regime of King Idris, toppled by Mr. Qadhafi in the 1969 coup, has felt discriminated against. Under Mr. Qadhafi, Tripoli, a part of the old Tripolitania, became the new power centre, and members of the Qadhadfa tribe, to which the leader belongs, and who are dominant in this area, were among the chief beneficiaries of the new regime. It is therefore not surprising that the revolt, on February 15, and reflecting old animosities, began in Benghazi, Libya's capital, pre-1969.

There are also human rights issues and political demands as well, which have been brewing. The rebellion in Libya was sparked by the detention, on February 15, of Fathi Terbil, the 39-year-old human rights lawyer, based in Benghazi. Mr. Terbil represents the families of around 1,000 inmates, who were killed in 1996 by the regime in Tripoli's Abu Slim prison. His detention preceded a planned protest on February 17, in which the families of these inmates were to have participated. The revolt was also preceded by a peaceful two-year campaign for a new constitution, and demands for rule of law by a lawyers' syndicate, based in Benghazi.

Aspirations for economic justice, the rule of law, civil liberties and regional equality, seemed to have all coalesced when the uprisings, led by youth, in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt, had successfully brought down entrenched dictatorships. As in other parts of West Asia and North Africa, these movements have transformed mindsets in Libya, imparting a powerful sense of self-belief, especially among the youth, who have realised that with careful preparation, fundamental political changes are indeed achievable.

Information is still sketchy about the role of the youth in using the internet as a tool for political mobilisation in Libya. "We will hear more about that in the days to come as the haze over the uprising settles. The only thing that I can say with certainty is that cyber-space was hyper-active ahead of the revolt," says Tarik M. Yousef, a Libyan-American, who is currently the Dean of the Dubai School of Government in the United Arab Emirates. However, it is now emerging that unlike Facebook and Twitter, that Egyptian and Tunisian youth used effectively, some among the Libyan youth, preferred — perhaps to escape the regime's scrutiny — to use a popular football website to plan and organise the protests.

Mr. Qadhafi's slide towards isolation, driven by a combination of deep seated insecurity, and megalomania, began soon after the popular September 1969 coup. Deciding to monopolise power, Mr. Qadhafi, trusting his formidable charismatic powers, ensured that his potential political rivals have remained marginalised. He towered over the Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) comprising several military officers, where power was concentrated after the coup. A failed attempt, by Major Umar Mihayshi, a RCC member and 30 army officers, to topple him in 1975, led Mr. Qadhafi to further tighten his grip on power. In the periodic purges that have followed, several hundred people were allegedly killed, in the wake of an unsuccessful army revolt, in 1980, in Tobruk. It is, not surprisingly, one of the flashpoints of the on-going uprising.

Acutely aware of the danger that the armed forces could pose to his survival, the Libyan leader has systematically undermined the power of the conventional army. He has promoted the Revolutionary Guard Corps (RGC), an ultra-loyal well equipped force of around 3,000 men, drawn mainly from the Qadhadfa tribal groups surrounding Surt, the leader's hometown. Also called the Jamahiriya Guard, the RGC, formed mainly in the 1980s, was tied to the powerful Revolutionary Committees, another contraption of the regime embedded in work places and communities. The Revolutionary Committee buildings, a prominent regime symbol, were fiercely targeted during the current uprising in Benghazi, before protesters established their control over the city by February 20. Troops sent in to quell the revolt also turned around to join the dissidents. They are now taking the lead in military preparations to counter Mr. Qadhafi's loyalists, as they head towards Tripoli, the leader's stronghold.

In its future confrontations with the regime, the opposition is likely to encounter the Khamis brigade — a highly potent force, which has been assigned the Pretorian guard role in the defence of the regime. It could also encounter legions of mercenaries drawn out of Africa, that Mr. Qadhafi has cultivated for long to fulfill his utopian pan-Arab dreams.

Mr. Qadhafi's emergence as a target of hate-filled vendetta can also be attributed to the offensive doctrine of physical liquidation that his regime has adopted toward its opponents abroad. Some among the Libyan expatriates, who are mostly educated but left the country in droves in the early 1980s, have been lethally targeted for their anti-regime activism abroad. The regime's agents have assassinated many of them, especially those who moved to Western Europe, where they began to raise opposition groups. Given their animosity towards the regime, the expatriates are playing a significant role in fuelling the revolt. Apart from the youth, they have been making active use of the internet to help create the critical mass required for the success of the uprising.

In his aggressive campaign to deepen the "revolution," Mr. Qadhafi has further alienated the Libyan clergy, now an important element in the revolt. His contention that his " Green Book," a self-acclaimed philosophical guide to chart Libya's future, is compatible with Islam and his nationalisation of properties belonging to Islamic endowments had already driven a wedge. The clergy has now formalised its break with the regime. In a statement, the newly formed Network of Free Ulema, which includes 50 prominent Libyan clerics and scholars, on February 22, condemned the use of State-violence against the protesters.

As the momentum gathers against the regime, the participation by ever-larger numbers of tribes has begun to make a critical difference to the regime's survival. In the city of Az-Zintan, 150 kilometres west of Tripoli, the powerful Warfala tribe has turned against Mr. Qadhafi. The Az-Zintan tribe, on its part, is trying to facilitate the entry of youth into Tripoli to challenge the regime. Significantly, around one-third of Tripoli's residents belong to the Tarhun tribe, which is disassociating itself from the government. Cracks are also appearing in the Qadhadfa tribe.

In the end, Mr. Qadhafi is staring at defeat, not necessarily on account of his stated ideals of Arab unity and economic equity, but because of his methods, which have revolved around authoritarianism, a personality cult and the use of brute force. As many among the Egyptian youth have recently shown, soaring idealism has a better chance of realisation when it is premised, not on force, but on principles of transparency, grassroots organisation and a political culture, which readily allows dissent and animated debate.

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THE HINDU

OPED

FERTILIZER SUBSIDY: WHAT IS GOOD FOR THE FARMER AND THE FARM?

IS THE CHEMICAL FERTILIZER-BASED FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE? AS A RESULT, WHAT HAPPENS TO THE SOIL AND THE LARGER ISSUE OF FOOD SECURITY?

RAGHUVANSH PRASAD SINGH

After a raging debate, the government finally decided to hike the chemical fertilizer subsidy, to catch up with spiralling fertilizer prices in the global market. Also, there is talk about bringing urea under the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) system and decontrolling its prices. Obviously, the fertilizer industry is happy. But there is hardly any discussion on what is good for the farmer and the farm. What is the state of the soil in the country? And is this chemical fertilizer-based food production system sustainable?

The past debate and NBS

The government has been spending a huge amount of money to support chemical fertilizer production and its usage. It has touched almost a lakh crore in 2008-2009. This investment has always been under criticism as it was promoting an overuse of chemical fertilizers and thereby catalysing soil degradation. As a result, agricultural production in the bread baskets of the country has stagnated and even started to decline, posing a threat to the food security of the country. The drylands have never received the benefits of the crores of money being given out as fertilizer subsidy, as most farmers in these regions are, by default, organic as they cannot use chemical fertilizers; water being the limiting factor.

There have been concerns raised by several policy experts and others that the fertilizer policy of the country is only helping to move out the Indian tax payers' money to foreign petroleum companies and fertilizer producers. It is to be noted here that fertilizer production is highly dependent on fossil fuels, and that most fertilizers are imported.

In 2009, Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee gave us a glimmer of hope when he announced a fertilizer subsidy reform and introduced the NBS system with a promise that the subsidy amount would be disbursed directly to farmers. In 2010, this policy was made effective, but there was no transfer of money to farmers. One year down the line, the NBS is proving to be a complete failure. Media reports point to the fact that after the introduction of the NBS, urea usage has gone up leading to a further degradation of the soil. Now, with the government increasing the fertilizer subsidy, it is also clear that the NBS has also failed to reduce the burden on the exchequer. It is neither helping the farmer nor the Government.

Soil degradation: farmers' view

In the mad rush to balance the chemical fertilizer kitty with global prices, policy makers are forgetting a huge problem that is staring us in the face — the deteriorating soil in the country and the resultant threat to food security. However farmers are aware of the crisis, but are helpless in the absence of support systems from the government. A recent Greenpeace India report, "Of Soils, Subsidies and Survival," based on social audits conducted in five Indian States, has revealed that 96 per cent out of the 1,000 farmers surveyed were of the opinion that the use of chemical fertilisers led to soil degradation but they continue to use them as there was no other option. Ninety-four per cent of the surveyed farmers believed that only organic fertilisers can maintain soil health. However, only one per cent of the farmers received any kind of support for production and the use of organic fertilisers. Ninety-eight per cent of the surveyed farmers were ready to use organic fertilisers if they are subsidised and made easily available.

Further, only 34 per cent of them knew that chemical fertilisers are subsidised. Of those who knew, only seven per cent knew that a new subsidy system (NBS) was introduced by the government for chemical fertilizers. Even at the subsidised rate, 94 per cent of them thought that chemical fertilisers are unaffordable and not economical.

These are some of the eye-opening revelations that the government should look into. Whenever a fertilizer sop is announced, it is lauded as a farmer-friendly measure. But farmers are not even aware. They are more worried about the soil, a resource on which their livelihood is dependent. But the government tends to ignore this.

Support for alternatives

It is a well-accepted scientific fact that organic matter is the lifeline of the soil which is critical to maintain the health of this ecosystem. Measures have to be taken to promote the generation of sufficient biomass in a field to be added to the soil. Ecological fertilization offers a range of ways to nourish the soil, with no damage to the ecosystem, be it in irrigated or rainfed regions. Indian farmers were once aware of these practices. However with the mad promotion of chemical intensive agriculture in the country, invaluable, traditional knowledge has faded away. From a knowledge driven system, agriculture production in the country has become an external input–driven system. This is when the crisis started to emerge.

The agriculture research system in the country has always neglected an eco-friendly means of soil nutrition and never approached it in a holistic way. It has always revolved around a chemical intensive agricultural model. There is an impending need to refocus scientific research to identify the value of the traditional knowledge available with a farmer. Scientific research should go hand in hand with farmers' wisdom to help the country tide over the crisis.

The government should think about how long we can depend on a volatile fossil fuel-based agriculture system. How long can we be dependent on fertilizer imports? How long can we ignore the state of the soil in the country? And how long can we ignore a farmers' plight?

Now is the time for the government to start building an alternative support system which is both farmer and farm friendly. This can open up a lot of rural employment opportunities and contribute to the livelihood security of a farmer. This will also bring prosperity to rural India.

( The writer is Member of Parliament and former Union Minister of Rural Development.)

 

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THE HINDU

THE QUALITY OF MERCY

EVERY INSTANCE OF CRITICISM THAT SEEKS TO EXPOSE A GOVERNMENT'S OPERATION AGAINST THE PEOPLE AND THEIR LIBERTIES IS NOT A BID TO OVERTHROW IT. THAT IS NOT SEDITION BUT A PATRIOTIC MISSION ON ACCOUNT OF PUBLIC COMMITMENT.

V.R. KRISHNA IYER

The life sentence imposed on Binayak Sen on a charge of sedition has provoked much vocal, even militant and hostile, public opinion. The judicial verdict is seen widely as being unjust, contrary to the people's conscience, and as an act of violence to public justice. It has invited severe mass criticism as an outrage.

It is nobody's case that Dr. Sen can be above the law or that the courts can ignore the evidence on record and rely merely on rumour or reputation or other arbitrary irrelevance. Nobody challenges the obligation and the duty of the court to act only on the evidence before it, but that does not apply to mercy power or privilege beyond the record. There is a clemency jurisdiction that can act on other benign considerations and show compassion beyond the technical ambit of the law in order to do justice. Mercy is nobler than law and it can have priority over law. This is a finer function of public conscience that does not destroy the conviction but deals only with the sentencing. The law remains; so too any guilt.

The court's decision based on the letter of the law is not undone, but a larger vision and certain sublime considerations prevail. Good things done with admirable motivation ought to be given recognition in giving a fair deal to an accused. Mercy is more than law or narrow judicial justice. This clemency factor is a dialectical operation that not the courts but members of the highest executive, like a President or a Governor, alone can exercise. This special jurisdiction is particularly relevant in Dr. Sen's case at this stage.

Extraordinary charge

Dr. Sen has been found guilty of sedition. This charge is an extraordinary one and is based, according to newspaper reports, on his association with certain Maoists. Dr. Sen has worked extensively in the rural areas, providing medical assistance to the poor. He has a reputation for having sacrificed much of his time and his skills for the poor. This should be an important factor in considering the sentencing dimension of his guilt.

Similarly, the Maoists have received medical aid, which is expensive; doctors often charge heavy fees. Dr. Sen's services are commendable and the general public feeling is that he deserves praise for his commitment to those who suffer from disease. To serve the public is not sedition. I would regard this as an alleviating consideration in the sentence that has been given to him. When a government provides hardly any medical facilities to the poor, service-minded doctors are not guilty of sedition even if their words go against the government's. Otherwise all opposition will turn out to be sedition.

Philanthropy is not fascism and public commitment critical of the state administration should not be confused with a traitor operation. I therefore view Dr. Sen as eligible for tribute, not to be condemned for sedition. Was Gandhiji or other critics of the state that hardly cared to wipe the tears of the poor, guilty of sedition? There is often grave confusion between criticism of a government demanding its overthrow — not by violence but by positive service and commitment to the people. Operation patriotism is not sedition.

Every confident motion, every instance of strong criticism that seeks to expose a government's operation against the people and their liberties, is not meant to overthrow the government and its bad politics. This is not sedition but a patriotic mission on account of public commitment. When you go to the villages and serve the people by providing them medical aid, where the state has failed to do so, that is patriotism, not sedition. Because the government does nothing to serve the people's right to live it is not sedition; otherwise every writ petition filed against a government or one of its agencies could be considered as seditious. Every activity in support of public causes that are meant to counter the government's grievous failure is the fulfilment of a democratic duty, not sedition.

Judges cannot miss a glorious vision of great sacrifice for the common people for fear of being imputed with sedition. The rule of law must support the rule of life and not scare away integrity, fraternity, fellowship and compassion and national commitment for fear of misconstruction by justices. Justices who miss the majesty of swaraj, which means wiping every tear from every eye, do not deserve their robes. To describe service done to the poor as sedition will be an outrage of the mandate of the Mahatma.

Binayak Sen should be released. To put him behind bars is a grave violation of social justice.

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THE HINDU

TALIBAN BET ON FEAR OVER FORCE AS A TACTIC

ALISSA J. RUBIN

This year the spring offensive by the Taliban and other insurgent groups has a new and terrifying face: the insurgents are using suicide bombers who create high casualties to sow terror and are planning an assassination campaign as well, Afghan and American military analysts say.

The insurgents' deadly bet is that fear will trump anger and that Afghans will lose any faith they had in their government's security forces and eventually turn to the Taliban.

"You have to ask yourself, 'If you were the Taliban now, what would you do?' " said Gen. Jack Keane, who retired from the Army in 2003 and is now a consultant to Gen. David H. Petraeus, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) commander for Afghanistan.

Given the massing of NATO forces in the south, the answer appears to be attack the urban, civilian population, creating widespread insecurity in an effort to reinforce the existing resentment of foreign troops and doubts about President Hamid Karzai's government.

In less than four weeks, 116 Afghans have died in seven suicide attacks, most recently in Faryab Province on February 26. Two of the attacks, one in Jalalabad on February 19 and another in Kandahar on February 12, involved multiple assailants and were carefully choreographed and skillfully timed to obtain a high death toll and maximum media coverage. In at least one case, the mission was carefully rehearsed.

This is a striking change from Afghan suicide bombings of just six months ago, in which the bombers exacted few casualties.

These new tactics highlight the challenge of an adaptive insurgency with a reservoir of potential fighters, many of them madrasa students in Pakistan's tribal areas. They show too the increasingly integrated network of insurgent groups that lend their expertise to one another as well as the difficulties the Afghan government has had in rallying its own people to fight them.

President Karzai has compounded the problem, some Afghan analysts say, by insisting that the Taliban are not to blame for the violence and that they are "upset brothers" rather than mortal enemies.

Underlying the latest attacks are the region's geopolitics. Both Pakistan and Iran are known to be supporting the Taliban and play out their antagonism to the United States on Afghan soil. "You have to see these attacks in the broader strategic context," said Haseeb Humayoon, the director of a risk consulting firm here.

A period of relative calm last year in Afghan cities coincided with an easing of tensions between the Afghans and Pakistan over negotiations with the Taliban. Now the Afghans appear to be trying to negotiate with the Taliban on their own, and there is talk of permanent American bases here, which Pakistan and Iran see as a potential loss of their influence.

The Taliban in the past have been careful not to single out civilians, although civilians are often killed in attacks. American and Afghan officials now believe that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the group that planned the attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, has been working with the Haqqani network, which is based in North Waziristan. Lashkar-e-Taiba specialises in planning complex suicide attacks.

"The suicide bombings are, we believe, predominantly requested and funded by Haqqani but facilitated by LeT and AQ," said a senior American military official, referring to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Qaeda. "The latter groups provide bombers and material in exchange for money. Haqqani chooses targets."

And in bad news for Afghanistan, a little-noticed peace deal took place late last year between the Haqqani network and Shiite tribes in the Kurram Agency in Pakistan, which opened up a new route for Haqqani agents to enter Afghanistan, American and Afghan intelligence officials said. A number of fighters have been observed crossing the border over the past several weeks, American intelligence officials said.

The situation is strikingly reminiscent of Iraq in 2005, when that country's cities were gripped by violence, the government was unable to keep the people safe and fighters flowed in from other countries. It took four years to stem that violence. — © New York Times News Service

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THE HINDU

NALANDA REVIVAL: WHY THIS MEDIA APATHY?

How an exciting international project of rebuilding a great ancient Indian university, which was destroyed 800 years ago, could not inspire the Indian news media to any great extent is a matter of surprise and concern.

Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen's keynote address at the 98th Indian Science Congress in Chennai on January 4 was devoted to the theme of 'Nalanda and the pursuit of science.' The full text of this interesting speech was published in The Hindu

(http://www.hindu.com/2011/01/08/stories/2011010865171500.htm).

Professor Sen chairs the governing body of new Nalanda, which is scheduled to start functioning near the old site in 2013. Professor Gopa Sabharwal has been appointed the first Vice-Chancellor of the post-graduate university, which will start with seven schools, primarily in the humanities. The courses on offer will include Buddha studies besides international relations, peace studies, and the information sciences and technology.

"We are talking about the oldest university in the world by a long margin," Professor Sen, who has taught at Oxford — where, according to the university's website, 'teaching existed…in some form in 1096 and developed rapidly from 1167' — reminded his audience, "that is, if we do not insist on continuous existence…Nalanda was an old centre of learning that attracted students from many countries in the world, particularly China and Tibet, Korea and Japan, and the rest of Asia, but a few also from as far in the west as Turkey…a residential university, [it] had at its peak 10,000 students, studying various subjects… while Nalanda was very special, it was still a part of a larger tradition of organised higher education that developed in that period in India — in Bihar in particular…[it belonged to] a larger social culture."

Raising the question of what a religious institution had to do with science, Professor Sen argued that while the central focus of Nalanda as a Buddhist foundation was the study of Buddhist philosophy and practice, "it nevertheless pursued general intellectual and scientific studies, the products of which were of great interest also to people who were not religious, or did not share the religion of the foundations involved." He highlighted the fact that "the faculty and the students in Nalanda loved to argue, and very often held argumentative encounters." One reason, he suggested, for its keenness to accept students from abroad was its "passion for propagating knowledge and understanding." The author of The Argumentative Indian added: "If the seeking of evidence and vindication by critical arguments is part of the tradition of science, so is the commitment to move knowledge and understanding beyond locality. Science has to fight parochialism, and Nalanda was firmly committed to just that."

Professor Sen laid before the Science Congress his hope that "the pursuit of science in old Nalanda…[would] inspire and guide our long-run efforts in new Nalanda" — in the science faculties as well as the humanities and the social sciences.

A lot of hard work, especially in the matter of attracting a world-class faculty at a site that will be considered remote and not easy to access today, will need to be done before this project takes off. But when it does, it will be the fulfilment of a cherished ambition of A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. It was President Kalam who, addressing a joint session of the Bihar Legislature in March 2006, pleaded for the revival of the ancient seat of learning in Nalanda. Excited by the idea, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar moved quickly to get legislative approval for the scheme and also offered land for it.

Around the same time, the Singapore Government came out with a "Nalanda Proposal," which would facilitate the founding of a 21st century educational institution that could link South and East Asia. This gave a new dimension to the proposal. At the 16-nation East Asia Summit held in Thailand in 2007, the leaders endorsed the Nalanda University project, with opportunities opening up for closer ties among the member-countries and the overall development of the region. Following up, the Government of India in August 2010 got the National University Bill, 2010 adopted by both Houses of Parliament.

It is unfortunate that a progressive international effort to revive a great tradition is sought to be trivialised by a section of the politically active media. The debate that preceded the passage of the Bill provided a clue to the lukewarm interest in, if not negative attitude, to the project demonstrated by a section of the polity. Is China's participation, along with 15 other nations, a sore point? Or is the importance that will be given to Buddhist studies in keeping with the tradition of old Nalanda unwelcome to the communal Right and to sections of the news media sympathetic to it?

This criticism is not meant of course to pre-empt the historical debate over what exactly was the character of old Nalanda and its long-term role in the pursuit of science. There can be legitimate historical criticism that there has been a trend of romanticising the tradition — considering that Nalanda was predominantly and pre-eminently a centre of Buddhist philosophy and studies, and that other fields of knowledge followed from this central feature.

But these questions cannot take away from the enduring significance and great value of the Nalanda tradition at its best.

Readers suggest

The response from readers of the last column ("What media can do for education"), which focused on the dismal conditions in schools and student hostels catering to the needs of extremely disadvantaged students in Tamil Nadu, was substantial, interesting, and borne out by their own experience.

Particularly valuable was this set of suggestions coming from A. Padmanabhan, former Chief Secretary of Tamil Nadu and former Governor of Mizoram, to rectify defects and mismanagement in educational institutions: the Minister, Secretary, and Commissioner for Adi Dravidar Welfare should take effective action to set right the pathetic conditions in Adi Dravidar hostels and schools in a time-bound manner; teachers, particularly in primary schools, should be given proper orientation training in dealing with students; district and State educational officers and district collectors should make surprise visits to schools and hostels, pull up errant teachers and ensure proper maintenance; parent-teacher meetings should be regular and fruitful; and, finally, it is time the Chief Minister himself called a meeting to discuss and sort out the problems before they get out of hand.

Mr. Padmanabhan recalled that in the 1950s and 1960s education administrators such as Director of Public Instruction N.D. Sundaravadivelu and District Education Officer K. Venkatasubramanian (later Vice Chancellor of the Central University in Puducherry) made surprise personal visits to schools and hostels and helped rectify the defects.

Incidentally, it was Mr. Sundaravadivelu who successfully implemented a mid-day meal scheme — launched by Chief Minister K. Kamaraj on a small scale before Chief Minister M.G. Ramachandran made it a breakthrough social entitlement programme for the whole State and eventually a model for the whole of India — with a view to bringing in children to schools and minimising the drop-out rates.

Arumugam Ponnusamy (Salem) e-mailed his concern over handing out corporal punishment to schoolchildren. He also suggested the introduction of "examination with textbooks" on a trial basis. Criticising corporal punishment, P.S. Sundaram (Chennai) said in his e-mail that teachers should seriously be sensitised about it. He suggested psychology-tests on teachers, many of whom, he said, were under-qualified.

B.R. Kumar (Chennai) recognised that All India Radio and Doordarshan continued to broadcast educational and informative programmes. Several other television channels and FM radio stations were also doing so. But he noted sadly that most viewers and listeners were only interested in soap operas and film-oriented programmes.

Some readers called to remind us of the fine work done by the news media in the 1980s when the literacy movement and adult education programmes were making rapid strides. Some Tamil dailies distributed free study material printed in bold letters and opened a couple of pages in their newspapers for the benefit of learners.

readerseditor@thehindu.co.in

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THE ASIAN AGE

EDITORIAL

TOUGH UN ACTION ON LIBYA CRITICAL

It is just as well that India went along with the UN Security Council's decision late Saturday night to impose fairly stringent sanctions on Libya. This is the first major international crisis that the UNSC has been forced to deal with on an emergency basis since India joined the Council as a non-permanent member on January 1 this

year. Some might have expected New Delhi to take a somewhat noncommittal stand in line with its traditional disposition to waver when faced with tricky situations involving so-called "nonaligned" countries. That it did not do so is to be welcomed. The vote in the 15-member body was unanimous. The sanctions are essentially targeted against that country's brutal dictator, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, who ordered the shooting of his own people, as well as some of his closest advisers. An arms embargo has also been imposed to prevent the regime getting weapons illegally, which could be placed in the hands of international mercenaries for use against the thousands protesting in the streets. There were reportedly some doubts that the UNSC seeking a war crimes investigation into "widespread and systematic attacks" against Libyan citizens, and referring the Gaddafi government to the International Criminal Court for prosecution, might be scuppered by China, a permanent member of the UNSC, wielding a veto. However, with the Libyan delegation at the UN defecting to the Opposition and calling the Gaddafi regime "fascist", the Chinese probably had second thoughts if indeed they had contemplated opposing the ICC referral. It is not entirely clear that this country was uncomfortable with the idea of the referral. Perhaps more on the subject will be known in due course. For now, it is good to know that the Indian stance has been to oppose the Gaddafi regime on account of its military attacks against its own protesting citizens.

The political situation in Libya is evolving and the time may come for the UN to assume the responsibility to protect its people from the regime. In that event too, New Delhi would do well to go along with the idea, which is consistent with stopping Col. Gaddafi in his bloodied tracks. The issue of an outright civil war in Libya and the division of the country are still in the realm of speculation and will call for deliberations based on the facts of the situation as it emerges. Nevertheless, as a UNSC member, New Delhi needs to keep a close watch on Libyan developments based on its own reporting, rather than rely wholly on the information channels of others.
Despatching Indian warships to Libya to bring back our citizens stranded there and flying out hundreds of Indians from that North African country on an immediate basis shows that we acted with despatch. Indian ships of war do not have a history of venturing out other than to tackle piracy in the Horn of Africa under international aegis, or for the purposes of naval diplomacy. The last time they left their anchorage of their own accord to enter foreign waters was to help neighbours in the Indian Ocean deal with the aftereffects of the 2004 tsunami. This brought India much international attention and acclaim. The sending of warships to Libya to evacuate Indians can act as a demonstration that we have the capability to deploy well beyond our shores when that becomes necessary in the national interest. Libya is a country with which we have had traditional friendly ties. We also source petroleum from there. Long-term instability in Libya and the prospect of disruption of oil supplies hurts Indian interests. In the event, it will be within the definition of responsible behaviour if New Delhi can begin to engage the various political elements in Libya, even if they appear amorphous at this stage.

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THE ASIAN AGE

OPINION

WOMEN SEEK FAIR DEAL

JAYANTHI NATARAJAN

The Union Budget 2011 will be presented in Parliament today. Naturally an important day for every citizen of our country, whose life will be directly impacted by the schemes and taxes and proposals in the Budget. There can be no doubt, however, that the most severely impacted in every section of society, notwithstanding class,

creed and income, will be women. It has been calculated — and this is stark reality — that until now, per capita allocation for women's schemes is 6.1 per cent of the total Budget, which works out to `1,200 per woman, per annum, which, according to a striking account, is not even enough to feed one woman for one month, leave alone feed her or sustain her for 12 months.

The gender budgeting statement (GBS) analysis has been released by the Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability (CBGA) and according to this analysis the per capita allocation for women increased from `410 in 2007-2008 to `1,000 in 2009-2010 and to `1,200 in 2011. This data, of course, relates only to wholly women-oriented schemes and does not take into account other general schemes where women benefit directly as citizens, not as women per se.

CBGA has also raised some very important issues, the most striking of which is the proposition that the discussion in regard to gender budgeting should move on from the standard demand for more funds and allocation to a holistic consideration of how gender responsive all schemes are. After all, if the concept of a social security net and economic inclusion of women is to be translated into reality, the government's primary consideration in this regard should be to assess the gender impact of all schemes and reshape implementation accordingly. To quote Subrat Das: "To assume that the cost of bringing and retaining a girl child in school is the same as for a boy child is being gender blind."

The above statement is in a sense at the heart of the issue. The girl child in our country is no ordinary person. In every rural and many urban homes, she assumes great responsibility at a very young age and begins to cook, clean and take care of her younger siblings, while her mother goes out to the fields to work. When she is a little older, she goes out to work along with her mother, whether in the fields or as domestic labour or in a garment factory, while her brother is probably being sent to school. All this is done by custom and nobody thinks that anything is at all remarkable in this, but the fact of the matter is that young girls in our country are being deprived arbitrarily of their childhood, their right to education and their right to a secure future by social customs and a hierarchy that is unashamedly patriarchal in nature. Any attempt to change the hierarchy is naturally met with great resistance by village elders who do not ever want to disturb a domestic balance of power where women and young girls function as captive labour by the diktat of a male-oriented society and by social fiat are deprived of their most basic constitutional rights.

Obviously, therefore, the economic cost of getting a girl to school will be far greater and very different from the cost of getting a boy into school and the government will have to factor this into calculations, if the Right to Education is to be implemented without gender bias.

The saga of constitutionally-guaranteed liberties and laws in favour of women, which gather dust on the shelf, are too well known to be repeated here. The Budget is a crucial time when women as a group have to be adequately provided for, if we are to call ourselves a gender sensitive society.

It is a matter of great satisfaction to all of us that it was the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh which first introduced the practice of including a GBS along with the main Budget document. This statement shows the total allocation for both women specific schemes as well as the allocation for general schemes, which have a 30 per cent women component plan.

In 2005-06, 10 ministries of the government prepared gender budget statements and the total allocation for women amounted to 2.8 per cent of government expenditure. In 2006-07, 18 ministries released gender budget statements and allocations increased to 5.1 per cent of the total expenditure. Today, the amount stagnates at 5.3 per cent of the total. It is to be sincerely hoped that the finance minister will take very seriously the representations made by women all over the country and increase allocation made for women specific schemes. Further the funds allocated for children should not be shown as allocation for women. Children are the concern of the entire nation and it would be unfair to both children and women to always put them in a category with expenditure incurred on schemes for women.

It is an axiomatic reality that the bedrock of good governance lies in gender mainstreaming and gender responsive Budgets and welfare schemes. It is equally true that this cannot possibly be achieved, unless government collates very seriously gender specific, disaggregated data so that information regarding how much money allocated to women actually reaches the beneficiaries it is intended for. Therefore, if gender budgeting is to be sincerely implemented, the most important requirement is the collection of gender-specific and disaggregated data. It should also be mandatory for every single ministry of the Government of India to prepare and release its gender budget statement along with the general budget.

Women groups have made very specific and urgent requests to the finance minister for this year's Budget. First that there should be adequate allocation to provide infrastructure to implement the Protection Of Women from Domestic Violence Act. Second, that a high-level task force should be appointed to review the working of micro-finance institutions and women self-help groups, which have run into stormy waters in recent times. Third, that there should be allocation to set up a national taskforce to provide for relief and rehabilitation for women in conflict zones, and also there should be allocation of funds to set up fast track courts to decide cases relating to rape and other atrocities against women.

The UPA, under president Sonia Gandhi, remains firmly committed to the empowerment of women. The women of this country look forward to good news in the Budget.

Jayanthi Natarajan is a Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha and AICC spokesperson. The views expressed in this column are her own.

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DNA

 

THE POWER OF SLEEP

ANITA NAIR

 

I have been on the highway for the last seventy-two hours. A friend and I drove into the horizon one afternoon. We were heading to a temple town amidst a cluster of hills; thereafter a seaside city and in between we would cut through vast plains and plateaus shadowed by gigantic rock formations. Each moment was filled with a wealth of sensations. Each moment that demanded it be mulled over and savoured with great deliberation. And what better place than the bed to do so?

 

And so each night as I crawled into bed, I would plan to dwell over the day's drive and all that I saw. But as soon as my head touched the pillow, I would pass out. It was a purely magical moment of letting go; all the muscles relaxing, the nerves stretching; the day's cares and worries, joys and triumphs all curling into a little impenetrable ball to be tucked into a little corner of the mind. Only to be brought out and bounced the next waking day. But the next morning when I woke up, it would be to a new day demanding new stimulation. And hence the previous day would have passed into the realm of memory.

 

I know so many who lie in bed wide-eyed going back and forth over the happenings of their day and others. I know how reluctantly sleep come to some. I know of how it can be to hear every tick of the clock as the night crawls towards day. Of being unable to sleep while all around everyone else is fast asleep. It must be one of the loneliest places to be….

 

In our prayers, we ask for our daily bread and for worries to be erased from our brow. No prayer seeks the blessing of sleep. If only…. the world would then be a better place. After a good night's sleep, everything seems less bleak, less hard to deal with, less tedious… It seems to me that the power of sleep is an unsung virtue.

 

Anita Nair's new novel is Lessons in Forgetting

 

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DNA

TWO SIDES OF A COIN

ANIMA NAIR

 

It was a traffic-laden day. I had ventured into those parts of Bangalore that I normally avoid. Appu had a weekly class to attend and even his normally cheerful self was agitated at the forty-five minute wait we had on the NGEF road. Traffic crawled and tempers rose. I looked out the window and told my son to relax and listen to music.

 

That is when I saw the woman with a small boy at her hip. She was skinny with a woollen scarf of some sort tied around her head. Another woman accompanied her. They were approaching a tiny shop — the kind that sells bananas and gutkha packets. The recent spate of construction in that area had left behind the inevitable debris which was no one's job to dispose of. Off to the side of the shop was a small patch of sandy ground.

 

The lady took a small baby bottle from the recesses of her grimy sari. She got some water in it from the shop-keeper and then handed over the baby to her companion. She then took the bottle and squatted on the ground to the side of the shop. The top of the bottle was laid on the ground nipple-side down and she proceeded to hold the bottle in her left hand while rubbing her finger in the sand. I was curious as to what the woman was doing and continued to observe her. The traffic had not moved an inch so it was like watching a movie unfold.

 

To my horror she commenced cleaning her teeth with the muddy sand. The vigorous rubbing was interspersed with more dipping into the sand. A sip from the little bottle of water was used to rinse out her mouth and just when she was done, a third lady joined her with a bag of congealed curried rice of some sort. Without even washing off the sand, she gobbled down the rice. Meanwhile the other lady took the baby and went around to the immobile cars and started begging in a very lackadaisical way. She looked numb and did not even make an effort — it was almost as if she were beyond caring and was just going through the motions.

 

I had no idea that there were people in this city surviving on about a cup of water a day for sanitation. There was something beyond mere sadness that swamped me while contemplating the number of such helpless women on the streets — for it is always women who go around with babies and end up even in their abject poverty as victims of lust.

 

Visions such as these are fairly common but for some reason the people who run the city seem blind to the plight of the desperately poor. While this entire scene played out on my right, a glance to my left showed an impressive structure surrounded by high walls embedded with polished granite slabs announcing proudly for the world to see "Namma Metro". Two sides of a coin indeed.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

WHY STAND "FINGERS CROSSED"?

 

In his address to the Parliament on Motion of Thanks, the Prime Minister made a short but meaningful comment about Jammu and Kashmir. He believes situation in the Valley has improved in recent months but could not anticipate what it would be during the coming summer. In this context he said that he sat with "fingers crossed." Intelligence reports gathered from various sources do not paint a bright picture of normalcy and peace in the valley in coming summer. Maybe the Prime Minister's guarded comment emanates from the bulk of available intelligence reports. Kashmir watchers think that turmoil in the Middle East can have its impact on Kashmir where separatists and secessionists have been stoking flames of unrest and turmoil since a long time. The chief of the opposition party lost no time in invoking the spirit of Cairo mobs to guide and inspire hooligans in Kashmir. Ever since the inflammable events in Tahrir Square happened, PDP has been doling out covert threats of mass mobilization in Kashmir. It excludes Jammu and Ladakh regions. It has given a call for Friday rally. Reports are that authorities are mindful of any unprovoked but sudden turmoil shaping in the valley as a result of anti-Indian elements using the example of Middle East situation. If the Prime Minister sits with "crossed fingers" on this count, he needs to re-think his reaction. A mass rally of whatever contours, is nothing new in Kashmir. For groups like stone throwers of summer 2010, it is a hobby or a profession. They live by this pastime. People have to be told that autocrats, despots and tyrants against whom their masses have revolted in the Middle East were glued to power without people's mandate. They did not come through democratic process and, therefore, did not enjoy the legitimacy of ruling over their people. The uprisings in Arab world are for granting political, civil and human rights of the masses of people. These are not for replacing the existing arrangement by theocratic one. What justification will the rallies in Kashmir have when their sponsors were very much in power; they had come to power through democratic process? Now that they are out of power, they are dreaming for Cairo-like mass mobilization. Is it not opportunism? Is it not betrayal of trust which their constituencies placed in them? Voters did not vote them to foment turmoil, incite people and drag Kashmir to the brink of disaster. It is against like of these elements that entire Arab world has woken up and is in turmoil. Look how the tyrants ruling over them have brought out tanks, gun ships, machine guns, rocket and other lethal weapons to decimate the people struggling for democracy. And the pro-Gaddafi troops that have unleashed brute force on masses are manned by Pakistani Army contingents whom Islamabad has lent to the tyrant for his personal protection just as to some more despots in the Arab world and the Gulf. It is amusing that a political party that previously came to power through democratic arrangement is now attacking the same arrangement just because it was not returned to power after elections. There is no need for the Prime Minister to cross fingers. The Government has successfully dealt with such exigencies in the past and it can manage more in future if need arises. Who have been adversely affected by the summer-long strike and shut down agenda of the Hurriyat in 2010? It is the ordinary labourer, petty shop-keeper, school and college student, a taxi diver, a houseboat keeper and a small scale contractor. These are all categories of poor and economically weaker sections of society. A repetition of this syndrome means bringing untold suffering to millions of members of weaker sections of society. For more than forty long years the people of the State carried out a struggle against autocratic rule. This struggle was for ushering in the rule of the people. The leaders of that movement succeeded in their mission only when they received support form the masses of people. When autocracy has been ousted, people's constitution framed and implemented, democratic process allowed to flow freely, elections held at scheduled intervals and legal governments formed, when people's representatives debate and pass laws by which the state is to be ruled, when press is free and judiciary is functioning independently, what rationale is there for any party to call for protest rallies and anti-government movement? What rationale is there to invoke Cairo-type mass mobilization? Kashmir politicians who are covertly inciting people to stage protests like those in Egypt or Tunisia or Yemen or now Libya should ask the protestors there what the objective of their movement is. Their answer will open their eyes. The Prime Minister has no need to be pusillanimous; he is expressing his misplaced diffidence by saying he sits crossed fingers. It is a sign of weakness. Mr. Prime Minister, you are much more powerful than you imagine because you are functioning through the force of world's most humane constitution.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

AGITATING PHYSIOTHERAPISTS

 

It is the 97th day of trained but unemployed physiotherapists of the State that they are agitating for employment. The Government has turned a deaf ear to their problem. It has refused to talk to them and understand their problem or tell them its compulsions. Instead of handling the problem from humanistic standpoint the Government has adopted not only a hostile but actually a vengeful attitude. Lathi charge and brutal handling of the agitating physiotherapists is blatant violation of human rights, it is inexcusable. The Government has to find avenues and opportunities to absorb the trained unemployed therapists. This problem has to be tackled and use of force is not the way it can be solved. Theirs is not the first example of unemployed trained and educated youth demanding employment. Those agitators were not lathi-charged and brutalized. Why this unbecoming treatment of these agitators. There are many NGOs in Jammu who claim to be protecting human rights. None of them has come forward to plead the case of human rights violation of these agitators. We hope the Government will give up the path of confrontation and reconcile to the fact that unemployed youth have to be provided with means of subsistence.

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

DON'T FEAR FII INFLOWS

BY DR BHARAT JHUNJHUNWALA

 

Ant matter before the Finance Minister in this budget is that of foreign investment. Foreign investment comes in two ways. Foreign companies often establish factories in India. They remit monies for this purpose. This is called Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) because the investment is made directly by the principal. Control over the Indian factory rests with the foreign principal. The foreign principal decides what goods will be produced, at what price they will be sold, whether the manager will be an Indian or an expatriate, whether the profits will be reinvested or repatriated to the foreign headquarters, etc. The other way in which foreign investment comes is through Indian share markets. These investors are called Foreign Institutional Investors (FII). They earn by buying and selling shares when the prices are low and high respectively. They also earn some monies by the way of dividends. The control over the company in which money is invested remains with the Indian owners.
The inflow of FDI was large previously. An amount of $164 billion has been invested in India in the 10 years ending at March 2010. FII inflows were less in comparison. Only $70 billion FII had been received in that same period. The situation has changed dramatically since April 2010. FDI of only $15 billion has been received till October last year. FII inflows were nearly three times at $51 billion. This indicates that foreign investors preferred FDI previously and have now shifted their preference to FII.
Analysts are expressing concern on this change. The main apprehension is that FII money can reverse suddenly and cause a collapse in our share markets and devaluation of our currency as has happened in 2008. But it is necessary to understand the overall advantages and disadvantages of the two types of investments in order to take a position on this matter.
First issue is regarding efficiency of production. FDI comes with advanced technologies. Foreign companies start making advanced products in the country. As a result domestic manufacturers are forced to upgrade their technologies. For example, only Ambassador and Fiat cars were manufactured in the country till the eighties. These cars gave an average of 12-13 kilometers per litre. Production of Maruti-Suzuki cars started in the country in 1985. This car gave an average of 18-19 km. This forced Indian manufacturers to make fuel efficient engines. Today the 'made in India' Indica is giving an average of 22-23 km. The entire domestic automobile industry has been forced to technologically upgrade because of the coming of FDI. A similar technological upgradation would have taken place from opening of imports, however. FDI has not come in a big way in many industries like paper, textile and sugar yet these industries have attained global competitiveness. Reason is that imports have been opened. Indian industries were forced to upgrade in order to compete with cheap imported goods. FII also helps in technological upgradation of Indian companies. They get easy access to capital and are able to establish modern factories. Thus FDI, foreign trade and FII-all help in technological upgradation.
It must be admitted that certain technologies are patented by foreign companies. These technologies can be available to us only through FDI. But such technologies are limited in number hence FDI may be preferred only in those selected industries.
The impact of FDI and FII on employment is also similar. Employment is generated in same measure whether foreign principal establishes a factory in India or an Indian businessman establishes the same factory with capital received from FIIs.
There is a difference in the impact of FDI and FII in other aspects. First difference is in the depth of integration with the Indian economy. Foreign investors have a spontaneous tendency to employ foreign managers and engineers and also use imported components and raw materials. Maruti Suzuki, for example, imported many components from Japan for nearly two decades. Car parts dealers tell that often 'duplicate' Indian made parts are of better quality than original imported ones. The tendency of Indian businessmen, on the other hand, is more towards using Indian personnel and components as being done by Tata Motors in the manufacture of Indica and Nano cars. Thus, FDI is more like oil on water while FII has a deeper impact on the Indian economy.
Second difference is in profit repatriation. The objective of both-FDI as well as FII-is to remit profits to their foreign headquarters. This remittance is made of dividends and capital gains. Both FDI and FII remit dividends. Difference is that FII remittance simultaneously leads to increased payment of dividends to domestic shareholders. Say a FII bought shares of Tata Motors. The Company was able to establish a new factory with this money and pay higher dividends. The domestic investors who bought shares of Tata Motors also benefitted from this higher payout. FII, therefore, leads to greater spread of income in the country.
FII has one major disadvantage. FIIs can quickly sell their shareholdings and cause a collapse of our share markets as happened in 2008 when the Sensex was driven down from nearly 21k to 8k. The consequent remittances of proceeds also lead to a collapse of our currency. The rupee declined from 40 to 50 in the wake of this exit. The collapse of the share markets should not worry us much. Such losses are in the nature of speculation and speculators should be ready to bear consequences of the same. The decline of our currency can be managed. The Reserve Bank of India should build greater foreign exchange reserves to meet such a situation. The money remitted by exiting FIIs can be made up by bringing back part of these reserves. There is no reason to fear FII for this reason.
Increase in FII and decrease in FDI is welcome because it signals the strength of Indian businesses. We should take the precautionary measure of building suitable foreign exchange reserves to prevent a collapse of our currency in the event of FII selloff. Let us see what the Finance Minister thinks of the matter.

 

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

CHERISH PAST, ASPIRE FOR FUTURE

BY DHEERAJ JANDIAL

 

Asked to comment on as to why India has lacked behind the so called developed nations in cracking inventions and discoveries, Nobel Laureate Sir. C.V. Raman remarked, "I would like to tell the young men and women before me not to lose hope and courage. Success can only come to you by courageous devotion to the task lying in front of you and there is nothing worth in this world that can come without the sweat of our brow. I can assert without fear of contradiction that the quality of the Indian mind is equal to the quality of any Teutonic, Nordic or Anglo-Saxon mind. What we lack is perhaps courage, what we lack is perhaps driving force which takes one anywhere. We have, I think, developed an inferiority complex. I think what is needed in India today is the destruction of that defeatist spirit. We need a spirit of victory, a spirit that will carry us to our rightful place under the sun, a spirit which will recognize that we, as inheritors of a proud civilization, are entitled to a rightful place on this planet. If that indomitable spirit were to arise, nothing can hold us from achieving our rightful destiny".
These wisdom words of Sir C.V. Raman hold its relevance even today, when the country is celebrating 26th National Science Day on February 28 to mark the path breaking discovery of Raman Effect. The event commemorated in honour of Sir C.V. Raman for his legacy and discovery of Raman effect on February 28, 1928, has persistently been debating for cultivating scientific temper amongst youth.
It was on February 28, 1928, through his experiments on the scattering of light, that the great Indian Physicist Sir C.V. Raman discovered the 'Raman Effect', while working in the laboratory of the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science at Kolkatta. It was instantly clear that this discovery was important one, as it gave further proof of the quantum nature of light. Raman spectroscopy came to be based on this phenomenon, and Ernest Rutherford referred to it in his presidential address to the Royal Society in 1929. Raman Effect therefore confirmed that the light is made up of particles known as 'photons'. This discovery greatly helped in the study of the molecular and crystal structure of different substances. The application and significance of the Raman Effect becomes clear from the number of papers published within a period of one-and-half years after discovery. By August 1929, a bibliography of over 150 papers was there on various aspects of it.
THE RAMAN EFFECT: Raman received the Nobel Prize in 1930 for his work on diffusion of light. The most simple explanation of this phenomenon is in the observance of Rainbow. We are delighted by the rainbow. We see in it the shades of red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo and violet (VIBGYOR). The white ray of the sun includes all these colours. When a beam of sunlight is passed through a glass prism a patch of these colour brands are seen. This is called spectrum. Spectral lines in it are characteristic of the light passing through the prism. A beam that causes a single spectral line is said to be monochromatic. When a beam of light passes through a transparent substance the beam is scattered. Raman spent a long time in the study of scattered light. On Februray 28, 1928 he observed two low-intensity spectral lines corresponding to the incident mono-chromatic light. Years of his labour bore fruit and Raman was able to discover what was lying hidden in nature. On 16th March, 1928, Raman announced the new phenomenon discovered by him to the world. It attracted the attention of researchers all over the world and it became famous as the 'Raman Effect'.
On the increasing relevance of Raman Effect Former President of India Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and country's missile man, asserted that Raman Effect has impacted every field of science. Its role in spectroscopy, medical diagnostics and material characterization had been phenomenal.
RAMAN AND CAREER: Born to R. Chadrasekhara Iyer and Parvati Ammal in 1888 at Thriuvanaikaval, near Tiruchirappalli, Madras Presidency, Venkata Raman was the second of their eight children. His father was a lecturer in Mathematics and Physics, so he grew up in an academic atmosphere. Raman entered Presidency College, Chennai in 1902. In 1904, he gained his B.Sc. winning the first place and gold medal in physics. In 1907, he gained his M.Sc., obtained the highest distinctions and joined the Indian Finance Department as an Assistant Accountant General. In 1917, Raman resigned from his government service and continued doing research at the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Kolkatta. It is worth noting here for the youth of today, Raman when he discovered in 1928 the Effect bearing his name, his formal education was only a M.Sc. in physics.
NATIONAL SCIENCE DAY: A DELAYED INITIATIVE : In 1986 the National Council for Science and Technology Communication (NCSTC- also known as Rashtriya Vigyan Evam Prodoyogiki Sanchar Parishad) asked the Government of India to designate February 28 as National Science Day, an event which is now celebrated all over the country in schools, colleges, universities and other academic and research institutions. The objectives mooted for commemorating the event is to provide an opportunity to bring issues of science on to centre stage, besides highlighting the contributions of science to human kind in domains of disease eradication, energy production, space exploration, environmental issues, information technology, et al.
Merely christening February 28 as National Science Day cannot be a tribute to the Bharat Ratna C.V. Raman (1954) for 'It is through Science that we prove, but through intuition that we discover'. Perhaps, the great German Physicist Max Born was apt that 'Science is not formal logic-it needs the free play of the mind in as great a degree as any other creative art. It is true that this is a gift which can hardly be taught, but its growth can be encouraged in those who already posses it' It is in this direction that the National Science Day must yearn for!

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DAILY EXCELSIOR

EDITORIAL

PERSPECTIVES OF INDIAN TOURISM

BY DR. PRAGYA KHANNA

 

In India, tourism has experienced sustained growth and diversification to become one of the fastest growing economic sectors over the decades, thus contributing to a large extent to the National Income and generating huge employment opportunities.
India is famous for its generous treatment to all visitors, its visitor-friendly traditions, diverse life styles, cultural legacy, architectural heritage and colorful fairs and festivals hold abiding attractions for the tourists. The other attractions include beautiful beaches, forests, wild life and landscapes for eco-tourism; snow, river and mountain peaks for adventure tourism; technological parks and science museums for science tourism; centers of pilgrimage for spiritual tourism; heritage, trains and hotels for heritage tourism. Yoga, Ayurveda and natural health resorts and hill stations also attract tourists. The Indian handicrafts particularly jewellery, carpets, leather goods, ivory and brass work are the main shopping items of foreign tourists.
In the state of J&K which has sprawling mountains, stretches of valleys, lakes, pilgrimage sites, handicraft etc. a lot of initiatives have been taken by the Government to boost tourism.
On one hand tourism helps preserve several places which are of historical importance by declaring them as heritage sites, conserving the natural habitats of many endangered species, creating various means of transports, health care facilities, sports centers, in addition to the hotels and high-end restaurants that cater to the needs of visitors. In addition, tourism industry can also help promote peace and stability in developing country like India by providing jobs, generating income, diversifying the economy, protecting the environment and promoting cross-cultural awareness.
On the other hand, the tourism industry lays some serious adverse effects on the environment. Increased transport and construction activities lead to large scale deforestation and destabilization of natural landforms, whereas better tourist flow leads to increase in solid waste dumping as well as depletion of water and fuel resources. Surge of tourists to ecologically sensitive areas results in destruction of rare and endangered species mostly due to trampling, killing and disturbance of breeding habitats. Noise pollution from vehicles and public address systems, water pollution, vehicular emissions, untreated sewage, etc. also have direct effects on bio-diversity, environment and general contour of tourist spots.
In mountain areas of the Himalayas and Darjeeling, the trekking tourists produce a huge quantity of waste. Tourists on expedition leave behind their trash, oxygen cylinders and even camping equipment. Such practices degrade the environment mainly in remote areas because they have few garbage collection or disposal facilities. Erection of hotels, recreation and other facilities often leads to increased sewage pollution. Wastewater has polluted seas and lakes surrounding tourist attractions thus causing a great deal of damage to flora and fauna.
The most important example that can be cited here is of the greatest impact on the sensitive mountain environment in the Karakoram Mountains between India and Pakistan in Kashmir where the result of the ongoing military conflict has led to human waste and trash accumulation on the glaciers. Such garbage does not degrade in cold and frozen places. Abandoned military equipment and fuel spills also contribute to the problem.
Some steps that must be taken to protect mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayas like trash should be separated into material that can be destroyed by fire, bio-degradable materials that can be buried such as vegetable and fruit waste, and materials that must be transported out of the mountains to an appropriate site for disposal such as metal cans and glass. Human waste can be properly disposed of in an earthen pit of adequate depth, but this is a problem on glaciers. Tourists would not want to visit areas that have been heavily impacted by improper disposal of trash and human waste. Deforestation leads to soil erosion which can be quite severe given the steep topography of these areas.
The solution to the problem lies in promoting ecotourism. Ecotourism plainly means tourism tied with the idea of protecting the environment. It promotes traveling to natural spots rather than commercial attractions, using cleaner means of sightseeing such as bicycles and walking, and doing activities that have negligible impact on the environment. Ecotourism aims at reducing the need to assert land and develop infrastructure for tourists. It focuses on exploiting what is already present to draw tourists in.
India is a beautiful and exotic country with colorful traditions and centuries of history. However, the country can be difficult to maneuver for a tourist visiting India. A great deal of India's infrastructure has not been restructured since the British left in 1947, so transportation and facilities, while accessible, have yet to be modernized. If India wants to establish itself as an unyielding travel destination and augment tourism, government and big business companies should take steps to make the country more cordial to foreign travelers. Public restroom facilities, even if existing, are inadequately maintained. Often the only sanitary services available are at big luxury hotels. India needs to improve its public services and promote basic hygiene if it wants to appeal to the foreign tourist.
Though India also has widespread railway coordination, however, due to overcrowding and poor maintenance, trains are often so crowded that people sit on the roofs of moving trains or hang out the windows. We should be aware of the different types of tourists that may want to visit India like ecotourists, historians or those seeking meditative retreats. India should take advantage of the inquisitiveness of foreign tourists with Indian culture, including yoga, Ayurvedic medicine, Hinduism and meditation, and market itself accordingly.
Tourism can sometimes lead to tension, hostility, and distrust between the tourists and the local communities when there is no respect and appreciation for each other's culture and way of life. This further leads to violence and other crimes committed against the tourists. Our Government is trying hard to curb this menace, but it requires an effort on part of every individual.
Moreover, since tourism is a multi-dimensional industry, it would be essential that all sections of the Central and State governments, private sector and voluntary organizations become active partners in the endeavor to accomplish sustainable growth in tourism if our country is to become a world player in the tourism industry.
Atithi Devo Bhava!

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

AL-QAIDA AS A RUSE

DESPERATE GADDAFI DESERVES NO SYMPATHY

 

In his very first reaction to the eruption of anti-dictatorship protests in different parts of Libya, its ruler, Col Moammar Gaddafi, tried to mislead the world by blaming Al-Qaida and Islamic fundamentalists for what had happened. The same ruse was given by Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, too. The world, particularly the West, for a while appeared to believe that the powerful pro-democracy movement that had shaken most Arab regimes by their very foundations might be hijacked by Islamic extremists to implement their own agenda. That is why one could notice little support in the beginning for those seeking regime change in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. Thankfully, however, the situation changed for the better soon.

 

Yet, in the case of Libya the world has reacted too slowly and only when people have suffered considerably. The Libyan dictator actually began to be openly condemned after he used brute force to silence the unarmed protesters. He and his sons are doing all they can to turn the situation in their favour. They have killed hundreds of peaceful protesters, but in vain. The Gaddafi regime has lost control over many Libyan towns. It could have lost the capital city of Tripoli too to the protesters had it not used its armed forces and mercenaries to mow down those who took to the streets shouting slogans after the Friday prayers.

 

The Libyan dictator deserves no sympathy. Though a little late, the US, the UN Security Council, the European Union, the UK and others have done well to start tightening the noose around the Gaddafi regime. They should go whole hog with the protesting people, who will not settle for anything less than a democratic set-up in Libya now. Desertions by many Libyan diplomats, resignations by a number of top functionaries of the government, refusal by military pilots to bomb civilians and other such developments have failed to force Colonel Gaddafi and his coterie to flee. But the regime appears to be on its last legs. That is why any kind of international sanctions like those related to food supplies that can add to the people's difficulties should be avoided. 

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

A MORE MATURE MAMATA

SHE HAS LEARNT THE ART OF WALKING A TIGHT ROPE

 

While Ms Mamata Banerjee is being criticised for presenting a populist budget with an underlying bias in favour of West Bengal and for not raising freight and passenger fares, the Railway Budget presented by her actually indicates maturing of a politician, who till recently had been known only as a rabble rouser. In her budget speech she made the disarming confession that "Indian Railways is passing through a very difficult phase", a candid admission indeed. Implementation of the sixth pay panel's recommendation, increase in fuel prices and decline in revenue due to disruptions have pushed the Railways' operating ratio beyond acceptable limits. By not increasing fares for the eighth consecutive year, she may have added to the financial mess of the behemoth; but she may well argue that if she had, her critics would surely have pounced upon her for adding to inflationary pressures and the burden of the common man.

 

The pioneering incentive to states which allow disruption-free movement of trains in the next financial year has received scant attention. The Budget promises to each of such states two new trains and two new projects. Her decision to locate various projects at trouble spots, from Jammu & Kashmir to Darjeeling, Singur and Nandigarm, also indicates a resolve to fight extremism with development. The Railway Budget addresses the needs of poll-bound states and announced new trains and projects for Assam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and of course West Bengal. But if 25 new trains will travel through or terminate in West Bengal, she has also delivered 14 new trains to Maharashtra and 10 to Bihar, where elections are over.

 

Not too long ago, the lady claimed that she had "a vision, a mission and the brain to implement it" and it would seem there is indeed some method in the madness. The party she founded 12 years ago, Trinamool Congress, can boast of not calling a single state-wide bandh during the last two years, despite being in the opposition. Mamata herself has maintained the reputation of being both austere and 'incorruptible'. While the Railway Budget may not have pleased all, it still held out the promise that West Bengal's "Chief Minister in-waiting" has come of age.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

EDITORIAL

MID-DAY MEAL MESS

STUDENTS SUFFER WHILE OFFICIALS SQUABBLE

 

One of the most innovative schemes for schoolchildren has been the mid-day meal programme. The National Programme of Nutritional Support to Primary Education (NP-NSPE), as this scheme is now formally known as, had its origin in Tamil Nadu, but the Central Government adopted it and now the programme runs all over India. NP-NSPE has been successful in improving the nutritional status of children; encouraging poor children belonging to disadvantaged sections to attend school more regularly; and even in providing nutritional support to children of primary stage in drought-affected areas during summer vacations.

 

Schools in Punjab have been operating under various handicaps, including lack of teachers, insufficient infrastructure, absentee teachers, and now, this additional issue has come to light. Punjab receives food grains from the Centre under the National Nutritional Programme for the mid-day meal scheme. Less than required food grains have been allocated to government or aided schools because, according to some officials, they failed to provide the required data regarding students. On the other hand, school managements blame delay in disbursal of payments for the problem. No matter what the issue, it is the school students who are suffering. Immediate steps must be taken to sort out the issue and provide good nutritional food to them under the mid-day meal scheme. The success of the programme depends on its implementation, and it is here that various kinds of bureaucratic and practical hurdles rob schoolchildren of their right.

 

At a broader level, the mid-day mess is just another indication of low priority that education, especially school education, has in Punjab. Unfortunately, a vital sector like education receives short shrift at the hands of politicians, with disastrous results. The major share of responsibility of preparing young children to be productive citizens of our country falls on government schools. It is, indeed, a matter of concern that even this basic facility meant for the welfare of students does not reach them.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

COLUMN

JOBLESSNESS IN RURAL INDIA

IT MUST BE HANDLED WITH ALL SERIOUSNESS

BY JAYSHREE SENGUPTA

 

Today in terms of GDP growth, India seems to be doing better than most other countries and the government expects around 9 per cent growth in the next one year. But is this growth translating itself into rural jobs? Is it benefiting the common man? The story of "trickle down" did happen to a great extent in rural India and boosted rural incomes. Indeed, rural demand has boosted industrial demand in recent years, but there is a scarcity of jobs in the rural areas. And with 54 per cent of the population living in our villages, there is a huge pressure on land, creating an adverse land-man ratio, which means there is not enough work for young people in the farms.

 

This lack of adequate work has created much restlessness among the youth in the villages who do not want to work in the fields and are lured by the news of the outside world through mobile phones, the satellite TV and Internet. Rural youth is aware of what is going on in the rest of India, especially the lavish lifestyles of people living in towns. It makes them want to migrate to towns and even undertake travel for hours in order to get paid jobs. The recent incident in which 18 disappointed young job-seekers died while travelling on the rooftop of a train, which was taking them back to their villages from the small town of Bareilly (Uttar Pradesh), is a glaring example of the kind of desperation the young people are facing. Even for menial jobs like cleaners, washermen, barbers and water-carriers in the Indo- Tibetan Border Police force, there were 100,000 applicants when there were only 416 jobs available. The remuneration was only Rs 5200 per month.

 

This incident shows not only the desperation of the village youth to get jobs in towns but also their willingness to accept even the most menial jobs. Most of the applicants were semi-literate and school-dropouts, but they now consider themselves as literate and want jobs which would give them some wage-income and job security (that made public sector jobs like those in the Indo-Tibetan Border Police all the more alluring). Another revealing fact is the utter recklessness of the rejected youth because while travelling back they flouted all rules of the railways. Since sitting on top of the train would save them the train fare, hundreds climbed on the top which is dangerous under any circumstances. But in this case, they were also not warned sufficiently in advance by the railway authorities of the low bridges ahead. Even if they had been warned, would they have listened? The complete lack of implementation of any safety laws is also highlighted by this incident. What is scary is the paucity of jobs to absorb the rural youth in India's 638,000 villages and thus it is difficult to hazard a guess about their future.

 

India will continue to have a youthful population of 500 million in the next 15 years as compared to other emerging economies. But this can turn the situation into a nightmare in which semi-skilled and semi-literate young population may not find a place in the job market as manufacturing and service sector jobs are growing very slowly.

 

There are also not enough food processing factories to employ the young people locally. The slowdown in manufacturing since December 2010 to 2.5 per cent is an indicator of the possible further slackness of industrial growth.

 

This is because all input prices have risen in the last few months. The rising oil prices will affect industry's fuel cost. There have also been several hikes in the interest rates to combat inflation in the past one year which makes industrial expansion difficult to finance. Only with more factories in the rural areas can the unemployed youth coming out of the villages be absorbed in gainful employment. The situation is volatile today because food inflation has been running at a double-digit level for nearly two years and is enough to drive out people from rural areas to seek jobs in towns.

 

The unemployment rate is now around 10.1 per cent in the rural areas and 9.4 per cent across the nation, and

this means that around 40 to 50 million youth are without jobs. Unless they are given proper training, and higher education, they will not be fit to join the service sector or the manufacturing sector. According to the Labour Bureau, most of the job growth in the manufacturing sector in the recent past has been slow and public sector jobs have not grown at all. Often to retain flexibility, companies have opted for high-tech which is also required to retain the competitive edge. Unless more labour-intensive industries are set up or labour-intensive processes are encouraged by government policy, the future will see very slow job expansion.

 

So, what will the young job-seekers in their twenties and thirties do when rural jobs are not available and what if they are turned down for the few openings as was seen in Bareilly recently? It will become a big problem in a few years unless they are engaged in studies and are given vocational training that will enable them to find jobs.

 

This task of educating and training the young entrants to the labour force cannot be left to the private sector alone and, therefore, the major task of the state governments would be to launch skill training programmes and ensure that all boys and girls finish at least their secondary education. It is perhaps not enough to have universal primary education as a goal because to implement it, there will have to be better schools with proper teaching facilities by teachers in classes so as to ensure that the dropout rate is low.

 

There is a big danger that the unemployed and disgruntled youth may join the Maoist movement or some other type of anti-social activity in the states that are poor and underdeveloped. To keep the youth gainfully employed in the villages, students should be encouraged to complete their education and training. There should be better implementation of Centrally-sponsored training programmes for rural youth, and for rural jobs labour-intensive factories in food processing could be set up. The youth can be trained to start their own small enterprises that can supply parts to factories in nearby towns. Making loans available from banks to youth for starting their business is also important.

 

Unless serious thought is given to the question of providing employment to the youth in the villages, widespread joblessness will remain like a bomb ticking away in our villages that may explode anytime.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

ARTICLE

CARD PROTOCOL

BY VINOD PRAKASH GUPTA

 

Birthdays, Father's Day, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, anniversaries, festivals, breakups, makeups or plain simple love, the tradition of greeting cards has diversified, evolved, boomed and ebbed  in the last four decades. But just like hand-written letters, this charming practice is on the decline giving way to e-cards, sms-es, Facebook messages, twitter and other technological leaps and developments in the methods and forms of communication.

 

I am firmly in favour of paperless communication because after all it is the thought that counts and God knows we need to protect the environment. But even with these compelling reasons one would miss holding a card which is more tangible and personal than an e-mail just like the Kindle is convenient but the reading experience, as romantics and puritans would agree, is not consummate until you can hold and, most importantly, smell the book.  Having said that, one must never lose sight of what is practical and has long-term benefits.

 

This brings me to the government machinery, a little untouched by technology, which has a different attitude for treating the 'card protocol'. In terms of occasions, New Year wishes have continued to top charts in the card-giving space. Not only is it a time to wish people close to you but in the official sphere it is one of the biggest public relations exercises. Fearing an astronomical expense in case all the cogs in the wheel were officially sanctioned a budget to send out cards to contacts, the government, as the New Year approaches promptly issues instructions to adhere to austerity measures and only a handful of officers, ministers and dignitaries are permitted to send out cards.

 

I must admit that this select group strictly adheres to the austerity measures and a judicious number of cards is sent out by each. But what the government does not factor into this exercise is the responsibility of courtesy to respond to thousands of greeting cards received by the various officers, especially the Governor, Chief Minister, Ministers, Judges and other high-ranking officers. This is a valid and justifiable practice and expenditure on the exchequer. All cards received from colleagues and the common man are neatly preserved by the personal assistants, listed and uniformly replied to with a standard letter which is printed out on official letterheads, placed in envelopes, stamped and mailed at the government expense.

 

The heads of the government may even get a huge number of cards printed to respond to the people. This is a necessary exercise to build a responsive image of the government and a relationship of trust and respect. But in its hurry to curb expenses, the government has totally overlooked the hidden costs.

 

As someone who has been following the New Year wishes tradition for the last four decades at his own expense, I strongly feel that wishes whether sent through a traditional card or e-mail should convey heartfelt sentiments of an individual.

 

It may be a paperless exercise, which of course is the need of the hour but definitely not a robotic exercise that automated routine responses reduce it to. New Year signifies a new beginning, a new start to make the current year better than the one before and this is the feeling that needs to be embraced and passed on rather than staying caught up in archaic practices that do no good and serve no purpose.

 

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THE TRIBUNE

OPED

DEFENCE INDUSTRY REMAINS AN ACHILLES' HEEL

INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY REMAINS AT RISK DUE TO A HEAVY DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN MILITARY VENDORS. A RESURGENT ECONOMY NOTWITHSTANDING, WE STILL DO NOT HAVE THE REQUISITE MILITARY PROWESS TO IMPOSE ANY COST ON ADVERSARIES FOR ACTS INFRINGING NATIONAL SECURITY. AN INDIGENOUS MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX IS A VITAL STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE AND WILL ALSO CHECK CHINA'S STRATEGY OF INFLUENCING NEIGHBOURS THROUGH INVESTMENT AND AID

AIR MARSHAL R.S. BEDI (RETD)

 

India's phenomenal economic growth and rising profile has led to its enhanced strategic relevance. It is fast emerging as an important factor in the global strategic calculus. Most western economies, unlike that of Asia, have not performed well in recent years. They are thus compelled to seek and engage the fast growing Asian economies in search of better prospects. This is resulting in a gradual shift of power from the west to the east. Can India like some other emerging powers rise to the occasion in this new scenario?

 

We are surrounded by neighbours who are not necessarily friendly. Some are out right hostile. Historically, some of the states in the region are not only unstable but tend to remain under the control of the military that wields unprecedented power and spends millions on re-armament. The Pakistani army is always in control of national affairs, whether overtly in power or otherwise, The People's Liberation Army of China too has emerged rather hawkish in matters of territorial and maritime claims vis-à-vis its neighbours.

 

The rate at which China is modernising its armed forces is a cause for serious concern. China has been increasing its defence budget by more than ten percent annually. Reforms introduced by China in the 1990s are now manifested by enhancing its military capabilities and also the prowess of its military-industrial complex that is producing a wide range of advance weapon systems.

 

The Chinese are currently in the process of launching their 12th five- year plan (2011-2015). Reforms visualised in this plan will further boost China's indigenous and the technological capabilities, besides integrating civil and defence enterprises. The pace and scope of China's modernisation are alarming indeed. This will "increase China's options for using military force to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in their favour."

 

This is a clear message for India and the reason why the dilly-dallying Chinese do not allow resolution of the border disputes, despite having met fourteen times at the political level. India must take note of this in dealing with China and try to resolve disputes expeditiously. Chinese proclivity of dragging its feet and raising new issues without resolving the pending ones is a part of their strategy. Dams across the Brahmaputra, military presence in POK, changing stance on Kashmir and the visa issue are all pressure tactics to keep India on tenterhooks

 

In contrast, India is still in the process of talking about reforms in the defence sector. The defence minister has recently unveiled future plans in regard to procurements, indigenous production and deeper and transparent involvement of the private sector in various areas of defence production. The Army Chief too has spoken about these reforms within the army itself.

 

On our western borders, the Pakistani army, which had lost its primacy to some extent in the 90s, has once again managed to create political space for itself. Under Gen Ashfaq Kayani, it has emerged as the dominant force in Pakistan and behind the civilian façade, exercises full control over national policies and ensures a lion's share of the national budget for itself. Last year, it increased its defence spending by as much as 17 per cent. Large chunk of US aid also continues to be siphoned off towards building the Pakistani military.

 

The security situation in India's near as well as distant neighbourhood has rarely been comfortable. Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal and even Sri Lanka too keep India under pressure one way or the other. They tend to leverage the China card in their dealings with India. That's how China invests heavily in these countries. With an economy growing at 10 per cent, China can afford to aid these developing countries. Pakistan, in particular, occupies a special place in the Chinese calculus of arming South Asia. Politico-military succour available to Pakistan is in keeping with the Chinese strategy of tying India down perpetually in a proxy war and preventing its rise.

 

India has little or no military-industrial capability to invest similarly in its neighbourhood. India has to go in for comprehensive defence production capability that would not only take care of indigenous requirements but also help service the needs of South Asian neighbours. Induction of private sector will go a long way in this endeavour. The only way to dilute Chinese influence in the neighbourhood is to compete with it.

 

Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, have all embarked upon re-arming themselves. Obviously, the

China factor is behind this. Malaysia has recently acquired new submarines worth $1 billion to safeguard its waters claimed by others. Indonesia has acquired a large number of fighter aircraft. Two blatantly hostile neighbours in the north and the west and progressively arming immediate and the distant neighbourhood does not auger well for India. India finds itself presently in an unprecedented security quagmire. Its claim to a rising power status rings hollow when viewed in terms of its indigenous capabilities.

 

President Obama's exaggerated rhetoric during his address to the Indian Parliament that "India is not the rising power but a risen power and an indispensable strategic partner of the US", however sweet to the Indian ears, is indeed far from reality. Similar statements made by other leaders visiting India do not make India a great power. Obama, Sarkozy, Medvedev, Cameron and Wen all came not because India was a comprehensive and a great power but because they were looking for jobs, economic and trade benefits. They were all competing with each other for the lucrative $12 billion aircraft deal that India is in the process of negotiating. According to recent reports, India will be spending around $100 billion on defence purchases over the ensuing decade.

 

The deteriorating security environment in and around India requires it to continuously modernise and upgrade its armed forces. Unable to meet the target indigenously, it is driven to meet the needs of the armed forces from foreign vendors. The Air Chief was blunt enough to concede openly that half of the weapon systems used by the IAF were either obsolete or obsolescent. The army too feels that it would take years to achieve full operational capability. The navy has also been harping on its progressively declining power. With the ever increasing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, it has an added responsibility. Sixty years after Independence, we still import almost everything that our armed forces need. Studies done by numerous committees only gather dust in the archives of the bureaucracy. One such study of which this writer was a member along with the three services vice chiefs and former DRDO head, Dr Abdul Kalam as its chairman, submitted a ten-year plan for indigenisation in 1992. Nearly two decades later, we are no better.

 

Our indigenous component continues to be no more than 25 to 30 percent, with core components being imported. The Light Combat Aircraft's engine, fly-by-wire control system and radar are procured from abroad. The story about the army's Arjun MBT and other weapon systems is no different. India's inability to produce weapons and total dependence on foreign vendors only reflects its hollowness as a major power. The vendors can withhold spares and supplies at any time and bring the nation to a grinding halt at critical junctures. India can hardly afford to forget the way the western powers applied sanctions against it after 1998 nuclear tests. Our strategic autonomy remains at risk even today.

 

Really speaking, it's sound economy coupled with indigenous defence technology and production capabilities that make a power. When Pakistani terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament and later carried out attacks in Mumbai, India failed to respond. A resurgent economy notwithstanding, we did not have the requisite military prowess. These incidents were strong enough reasons for military options. No wonder, Pakistan continues with its nefarious designs with impunity against its much larger neighbour. It's because we are unable to impose any cost on our adversary. Under the circumstances, indigenous military-industrial complex is as vital a strategic imperative as the national economy.

 

The writer is former Director General, Defence Planning Staff

 

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MUMBAI MIRROR

VIEW

THE COMIC MAKER OF INDIA

ANANTH PAI, WHO DIED LAST WEEK, GAVE MILLIONS OF US OUR FIRST IMAGINARIES OF THE PAST THROUGH AMAR CHITRA KATHA

Iam a child of Amar Chitra Katha. Poring over the comics was one of the greatest delights of my childhood and Ananth Pai, who died last week, gave millions of us who grew up in the 1980s our first imaginaries of the past, our first mental maps of history and mythology.

 

Despite the disdain of many a professional historian, the comic books he created have come to occupy an iconic place in Indian popular culture and what Sunil Khilnani calls the 'great Amar Chitra Katha of our national imagination'.

 

You can quibble on detail but you can't question the social place of a series that has sold over 90 million copies in 11 Indian languages, with translations into French, Spanish, German, Swahili, Fijian, Bahasa Indonesia and even Serbo-Croat.

 

 Much has been written about the foundational moment when Pai in 1967 saw a TV broadcast at Delhi's Maharaj Lal and Sons of a quiz contest where Delhi college students were correctly answering questions on the Greek gods of Olympus but were clueless when asked the name of Ram's mother. As he told me five years ago, that memory still stung him. "Our children are getting alienated from their roots and culture," he said.

 So what made Amar Chitra Katha special? Television was still in its infancy at the time, with less than a 100 TV sets in all of Delhi but that chance broadcast provided the kernel for an Indian series, with Indian stories for Indian children. Amar Chitra Katha's first 10 titles were merely reprints of the American 'Classics Illustrated' but its first Indian title, 'Krishna', became so successful that the series moved entirely into Indian themes.

 Part of the legend of Uncle Pai is the explicit marketing of the series as a modern-day family elder, aiming "to fill the lacuna left by grandparents in the smaller nuclear families in urban areas." What is less well known is the sophisticated marketing effort and the support of the state that sustained this.

 

The comic book historian John A Lent says that Amar Chitra Katha's rapid success in the 1970s was linked to a vigorous promotion effort targeted directly at schools, including quiz and fancy dress competitions, debates and the formation of Amar Chitra Katha/Tinkle clubs.

 

The series gained the state's approval from the late-1970s. The central government's interest followed from a survey carried out at Pai's behest in 31 Delhi schools, which showed that children learnt better through comics than books.

 

 This was crucial and an Amar Chitra Katha-organized seminar, "The Role of Chitra Katha in School Education" in 1978 won it the seal of approval from the education ministry, NCERT and the Kendriya Vidyalaya Sangathan. Since then, literary support programmes with the libraries of government-aided schools have always been an important part of the series' commercial success.

 

 This turned Amar Chitra Katha into a quasi-public institution. As a vehicle of popular culture, each issue negotiated a complex minefield: the simplicity required for children versus the complexity of history and its many versions; sales versus educational imperatives; accuracy versus political interests.

 

For example, when Amar Chitra Katha's portrayal of Valmiki as a thief before he wrote the Ramayana led to protests by a Dalit group in Punjab, Pai removed the issue from circulation, travelled to Jalandhar and Patiala to meet the protesters, and tried to enlist the services of the Congress' senior Dalit leader Jagjivan Ram as a negotiator with the groups concerned. He waited a long while before coming out with another issue that involved the question of untouchability.

 

 Staff were reportedly instructed to be sensitive towards lower caste readership and when 'Chokamela' – a title on the 14th century Dalit bhakti poet – came out in 1983, its launch was presided over by then Union Home Minister Buta Singh, also a Dalit leader from Punjab.

 

Similarly, when Amar Chitra Katha came out with its series on the 10 Sikh Gurus during the Khalistan insurgency, it took care to get the script for each issue approved by the Shiromani Sikh Gurudwara Prabandhak Committee – and this was explicitly printed on the inside cover page. A few years ago, when the Aamir Khan film Mangal Pandey got engulfed in a bitter debate about historical authenticity, Pai emphatically told me in an interview that "the movie is certainly not real history…our Amar Chitra Katha version is based on authenticity".

 

It was a revealing comment, this effort to project authenticity, at least his kind of it.

 

Of course, Amar Chitra Katha has always projected a certain kind of popular history and historians have long turned their noses at it, but what mattered was that people – and parents – believed this version of the story. Tellingly, Pai once told an interviewer that he first realized the impact of his series when he overheard two government servants resolve an argument on a point about the Ramayana by referring to his comic book.

 

 For over 40 years, Amar Chitra Katha has been the nation's comic: encompassing in its pages debates that have constituted the modern Indian nation. Its future hinges on how it adapts to the changing market but its past is undeniable. This is the legacy of Uncle Pai.

 

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******************************************************************************************BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

NORTH BLOCK VIEW

The Union finance ministry's Economic Survey 2010-11 offers an upbeat view of the state of the Indian economy and its prospects in the foreseeable future. While the document does raise concerns about potential spoilers like inflation, high levels of fiscal and current account deficits, declining levels of foreign direct investment, global economic conditions, including a spike in oil prices, it tends to portray them as transitory. It would be dangerous to minimise the potential ramifications of these downsides to growth and to that extent the Survey seems a bit too sanguine for comfort. To be sure, India has a lot to celebrate about its recent economic performance. It has been among the few countries to have emerged from the global economic downturn relatively unscathed. Annual economic growth fell below 7 per cent just once in 2008-09, the darkest year of the crisis. The speedy recovery to 8 and 8.6 per cent in the two subsequent years is a tribute to both the resilience of the Indian economy and astute fiscal and monetary policy. It is heartening that savings and investment rates, while lower than the heady pre-crisis levels never fell below 32 per cent of GDP and are now inching their way back to former highs.

 The downsides to growth are nonetheless daunting. Inflation remains the biggest concern, especially with global commodity prices rising again. The Survey offers a masterly overview of the problem and puts forward some interesting hypotheses. Inflation in India is still largely supply driven, particularly with respect to food articles. While a decent rabi and kharif harvest may boost production and lower prices, supply chain bottlenecks and unclear procurement policies could still prevent the full benefit of a bountiful harvest from being realised. The RBI which has positioned itself as a 'first line of defence' against inflation would be forced to hike interest rates only to lower inflationary expectations, thereby setting off a chain of undesirable outcomes, notably a fall in private sector investment. Indeed as highlighted in this space, much of the new 'investment' is infrastructure driven---private sector capacity expansion has been ominously low over the past two years.

The gross fiscal deficit even at 4.8 per cent of GDP is worrisome and already hurting. Fiscal consolidation is an imperative. The 3G & Broadband auctions along with a few successful divestment programs (particularly in Coal India Limited) provided a one-time bonanza in FY 2010-11, but the government will hereafter have to rely on tax revenues, while cutting down on unwanted expenditures to keep the fiscal deficit within bounds. The way forward is through another round of comprehensive reforms. These would include sustained investment in agriculture, tax reform mainly in getting the GST in place, removing administrative hurdles to FDI, and reducing transactions costs that stifle domestic enterprise. Complacency could derail hard earned progress and further weaken the political resolve for tough minded fiscal and economic reform that India needs to sustain and stabilise its growth story.

 

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BUSINESS STANDARD

EDITORIAL

RUNNING DOWN THE RAILWAYS

 

 

On the face of it, the railway budget points to an improvement in the operating performance of the organisation in the current year (2010-11), compared to the previous year, with the operating ratio improving by over three percentage points to 92.1. This is still below what was achieved under her predecessor Lalu Prasad, but a slight turnaround nevertheless. However, even this has been wrought at a long term cost to the organisation. Appropriation to the depreciation reserve fund, from which track renewal takes place to secure the safety of rail traffic, has been cut by a fourth in the revised estimates compared to budgetary estimates. Disastrous as last year's results were, they would have been even poorer if the balances in the various railway funds were not run down by over Rs 10,000 crore. What is worse is that in the current year they have been run down further by another Rs 2,000 crore and what must mark a nadir is that in the budget estimates for the next year (2011-12) they are planned to be drawn down even further by another Rs 1,700 crore. Thus the improvement in the operating ratio depicted over the two-year period 2010-12 is quite hollow.

 

It is also difficult to take the revised figures with certainty in view of what happened last year (2009-10) when the actual gross traffic receipts fell short of the revised figures by a good Rs 1400 crore. Even if 'actuals' do not let 'revised' down, the topline growth has little to recommend itself. Total receipts are set to go up by 9 per cent in a year when nominal GDP is set to go up by 16 per cent. What is more, since the transport sector grows faster than GDP, by 1.25 times, railway revenue should have gone up faster than nominal GDP. As the railways offer concessional rates to bulk and essential commodities, tonnage carried (net tonne km) instead of revenue can be considered. Even by that measure, the growth in the first ten months of the current year is a paltry under 4 per cent when real GDP is set to grow in the whole year by 8.6 per cent. Clearly, the railways are continuing to lose market share.

At a time when the infrastructure deficit of the economy is being highlighted by one and all, running down the railways' physical assets by neglecting adequate replenishment, instead of building them up, needs condemning in the strongest possible terms. Under four different heads of repairs and maintenance, the actual amount spent in the current year (revised estimates) is down from the actual amounts spent in the previous year. This is reflected in physical targets and achievements. In terms of two vital physical parameters — route kilometers electrified and length of tracks renewed —the revised target or achievement is lower than the actual achievement in the previous year. Only construction of new lines is far in excess of what was achieved in the previous year. This underlines the political agenda of railway minister Mamata Banerjee: distribute goodies to all and sundry, including West Bengal where she faces a key election, without safeguarding the long term health of the railways. But should West Bengal worry about Ms Banerjee's administrative abilities? Will she revive the fortunes of this hapless state, or derail them further, like the railways?

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BUSINESS STANDARD

 

KAUSHIK'S CALCULUS

MOF MAY NOT BE MASTER OF ALL IT SURVEYS, BUT ITS CEA IS A MASTER OF HIS SURVEY

SANJAYA BARU

 

Just when most economic analysts were beginning to question the utility of wasting so much paper on an annual official Economic Survey, when so much of the data is now regularly published and comprehensively analysed by so many from quarter to quarter, the Union government's chief economic advisor (CEA) Kaushik Basu has injected new life into an otherwise dull document.

 

 Last year, when Dr Basu returned from a two-decade hibernation in the groves of an American ivy league institution, to take up his very first assignment in the government, many of New Delhi's number-crunching policy wonks poked fun, asking the game theorist and developmental economist whether he could reel off numbers like fiscal deficit and tax/GDP ratio from memory! A chief economic advisor must not only be au fait with numbers, was their point, but must have his feet on the ground with a grasp of the real world, and forget the cerebral world of theorems and theories.

More than an year into his job, economist Kaushik Basu has had the last laugh. Not only has he demonstrated his fine grasp of the new India that he has returned to analyse and shape, but he has converted a dull book full of numbers and boring facts into an intellectually provocative and exciting document. The finance ministry may not be a master of all that it surveys, but Dr Basu has proved to be a master of his survey of India.

The Survey's first two chapters and the several boxes, reporting results of research both within the ministry and outside, offer a glimpse of the kind of ideas that are shaping policy within the Union finance ministry and, indeed, the higher echelons of the Union government.

Last year, Dr Basu offered us a new way of looking at the problem of subsidies and showed how the strategy of "inclusive growth" can be made fiscally sustainable. This year, Dr Basu offers us a new perspective on inflation and a new index of India's global standing. These two ideas apart, there are several boxes that offer new perspectives on how policy makers may be looking at issues like subsidies, infrastructure policy, management of the balance of payments and social sector programmes.

In his highly readable style, Dr Basu puts forward a credible argument in support of the Survey's view that the economy is back on the "pre-crisis track" of 9.0 per cent growth. It is not just the savings and investment rate, but the learning-by-doing effects of human development and human capital formation, and their impact on labour and capital productivity, along with the underlying favourable demographic transition underway that are driving the India growth story.

The Survey lists three facts that are setting in motion a 'virtuous cycle of growth', and three problems challenging it. On the positive side, first, the new momentum in services sector growth; second, the recovery of savings and investment rates; third, signs of fiscal consolidation. On the downside, first inflation, second, deceleration in industrial growth and, third, rising oil prices.

As ideas go the explanation of the 'learning-by-doing' effects of growth in general, and services sector growth in particular, provide a new perspective on India's growth potential. Reassuringly, Dr Basu tells us, "fortunately, there is awareness of this in India and efforts are afoot in terms of budgetary allocation and actual initiatives to boost the development of skill and human capital."

Two new ideas that stand out are the one on globally induced inflation and the other on India's global standing. Building on existing theories of externally induced inflation, Dr Basu shows the limits of monetary policy in an increasingly globally integrated world where central banks are unable to prevent imported inflation. While India's long term inflation rate in the period 1950 to 1990 was 8.0 per cent, in the decade 1995-2005 it had come down to around 4.0 per cent. For a variety of both domestic and external reasons, that the Survey lists, India may have entered a phase of marginally higher inflation, with the average likely to be around 5.0 per cent in the medium term.

Finally, given my own interests in geo-economics and strategy, I found the Survey's new index of, what it calls, government economic power (IGEP) appealing. It is not clear if the authors of the working paper are familiar with the early work of historian Niall Ferguson (The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World, 1700-2000), on defining government power, or of Chinese estimates of comprehensive national power (CNP) and its Indian variant (Index of National Security), but the Survey's new index implicitly draws on all these ideas, and provides a valuable framework for policymaking in the finance ministry.

The core of the argument underlying this index of economic power will be found in the chapter on "Economic Security" in the first ever Strategic Defence Review (SDR) prepared for the Indian government in 2000 by the then National Security Advisory Board. As members of the NSAB, Rakesh Mohan and I wrote that chapter outlining the logic of using economic indicators such as fiscal and external balances, human development indicators, energy and food balances and defence expenditure as indicators of national power.

It is, therefore, heartening to see the finance ministry take the initiative to construct this new index, which is in fact not just an index of 'government' economic power, but of 'national economic power' and, therefore, ought to be renamed as INEP, rather than IGEP.

Every member of Parliament and government must understand the policy implications of this and why India needs a sustainable model of inclusive growth and a globally competitive economy to facilitate its re-emergence as the world's second largest economy. If the finance minister has read his CEA's Survey, we should expect a forward looking budgetary strategy.

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

THINK DIFFERENTLY, MR FINANCE MINISTER

SUNITA NARAIN

 

 

As you read this article, the finance minister would be about to release the Union Budget 2011. The press is busy reflecting the views of business and industry lobbies, as they quibble over duty exemptions, insist on financial stimulus and other incentives, and cry for big-ticket reform — foreign direct investment in retail and insurance.

But remember, this Budget is coming at a time when the world food prices are spiralling, this time because of unusual and variable weather events. Oil prices, too, are rising again, triggering fears of a full-blown crisis in West Asia. In this age, it is clear that fiscal prudence must take new forms of balancing books that are not cooked. The Budget must react to this uncertain future. How?

First, it must get serious about agricultural growth. Indian agriculture has suffered because of lack of investment. We talk about infrastructure for industrial growth, but how many times have Budget pundits stopped to check how farmers irrigate their land. If they do, they would find that the bulk of irrigation facilities in the country have been created through private investment — dugwells and tubewells provide water to over 60 per cent of irrigated crops. Farmers have invested money; begged and borrowed from financial institutions and paid hefty interests because of their high risks and lack of benefactors in high places (unlike many industries, where loan default is astoundingly high). The Budget must reflect the need to invest big time into building agricultural security. This is about fiscal prudence, be clear.

Second, let's get serious about paying the real price of growing food, particularly in times of weather uncertainty. The government expenditure increases as the cost of food increases, particularly because of high procurement of food for distribution. In the past, governments have balanced Budgets by squeezing profit margins of food growers so that government or consumers pay less for food. But this policy must change, particularly in times when growing food itself is becoming risky because of erratic weather. One instance of extreme cold, heat, rain or drought can wipe out crops, impoverish people and push them deeper into debt and despair. We need strategies to keep up with these changes.

This will require doing much more and much differently. Farmers must be paid higher price for food. The minimum support price must be raised to the maximum. This price must reflect the ecological cost of food. In other words, crops that use less water must be paid more and included in government's food procurement basket. It also requires investment into ecological regeneration — building soil, forest and water assets — for coping with adverse weather. Ecological prudence must be part of the fiscal responsibility package.

Thirdly, the Budget must build the foundations of social security so that people can cope with uncertainty. This means investment in health, public services and education. We desperately need higher spending on public services. No questions or cuts here.

Fourthly, governance of public-sector spending must also improve; merely spending is not enough. But how can services be efficiently delivered to the people? Impression is created that all will be well once we can identify people who need the service and give them unique, secure passkeys for identification. This may well be important. But in my view it is equally important to fix the broken systems of governance and delivery in the country. The budget must emphasize this and demand accountability.

Fifthly, it is equally important that spending and subsidy are targeted at the poor, and the rich do not siphon them off. Take diesel. Its price is kept low for the poor even in times of high oil prices. But it is being used to drive the vehicles of the rich and powerful. Government's own estimate is that more diesel is used in private passenger vehicles (15 per cent) than in agriculture (12 per cent). This, when we know that there is huge under-recovery in the price of every litre of diesel sold in the country. We also know that the growing and deliberate price differential between petrol and diesel is tempting more Indians to drive fuel-guzzling SUVs. The use of diesel in private automobiles was never mandated.

Instead most in government today will accept that this use is wrong and must not be allowed. But they will do nothing. The "reformers" will talk about withdrawing subsidy on all fuels, while well aware of the fact that a large number of people in India cannot even afford the cheap and subsidized kerosene. The poor need access to subsidised fuel; its diversion to cars is leakage. So target its use and ban its misuse. Budget 2011 can fix this by putting a massive and crippling tax on private vehicles running on subsidized fuel.

Clearly, budget 2011 must do more than what's easy and ordinary. This is the age of uncertainty. Small changes will not do.

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

GROWTH VS SOCIAL JUSTICE

PROPONENTS OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE MUST NOT LOSE SIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

A V RAJWADE

 

 The Budget proposals for fiscal 2011-12 to be announced later today may throw some light on the policy-level thinking about the eternal debate on the relative emphasis between growth and social spending, between the politics of production and the politics of distribution. Jagdish Bhagwati in his Hiren Mukherjee Memorial Parliamentary Lecture in December 2010 emphasised economic growth as the principal means to reduce poverty. On the other hand, Amartya Sen has characterised as "stupid" the aspiration "to double-digit economic growth without addressing the chronic undernourishment of tens of millions of Indians" (Financial Times, December 22, 2010). The prime minister has added his own weighty voice to the debate by saying that, while inflation needs to be curbed, this should not be at the cost of affecting growth. He, along with the Cabinet, has also opposed several proposals from the National Advisory Council for an extension of food security and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. Though one is in full sympathy with the idealism of the proponents of distributive justice, they need to take into account two points. 

 

 One, the resources for increased outlays on social programmes can come only through rapid economic growth (while on the point, it seems the prime minister has succeeded in curbing the licence permit raj, re-birthed under the environment ministry). 

Two, and even more crucial, the administrative/managerial resources of the government are nowhere near what are needed to deliver even the existing programmes with a minimum acceptable degree of efficiency and honesty. Larger outlays are unlikely to yield any better outcomes. In fact, reports suggest that in several segments, even the existing allocations in the Budget are not being used. 

Last Monday, I had listed a large number of factors that can lead to major social unrest, as several countries in West Asia have witnessed in recent weeks, and which are equally present in India. Is there any specific factor in the Indian macro economy that could trigger a major problem? To my mind, there is — and it is not minor either. It is the external account of the economy, a point on which I have commented on in my previous columns. In recent weeks, concerns on the subject are being voiced by several weighty policy makers. 

In its report on the economy released last Monday, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council emphasised the need to stabilise the current account deficit "at a lower level of around 2 to 2.5 per cent of GDP". 

In a speech at the Special Governor's Meet in Japan (Business Standard, February 1), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor said, "Our reserves comprise essentially borrowed resources, and we are, therefore, more vulnerable to sudden stops and reversals as compared with countries with current account surpluses." 

The RBI's Financial Stability Report (December 2010) cautioned that, "A potentially worrying feature of capital flows to India has been the dominance of portfolio flows and debt flows as compared to the more stable investment flows on a gross basis. Such flows require watchful management as they are prone to sudden stops and reversals ... the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves and of total external debt to foreign exchange reserves having risen to their highest level since the foreign exchange crisis during the early 1990s." 

One is apprehensive that the "potentially worrying feature" may become an actuality in 2011-12, particularly if the crisis in West Asia extends to more oil-producing countries, and the price shoots up. Even otherwise, the merchandise trade deficit is unlikely to be less than 7 to 8 per cent of GDP (it was less than 1 per cent in 2004-05). Remittances could also be adversely affected by the situation in the Gulf countries, and net invisibles actually fell in the first half of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period last year. (In this connection, the export jump in December and January has puzzled me and I am still pondering on the implications.) 

On the capital account, the position is far from reassuring. Foreign direct investment is falling, and the propensity to unilaterally alter or re-interpret contracts invoking "sovereign rights" will not improve the position. A recent JP Morgan research report suggests that the prospects of emerging markets getting larger portfolio inflows in the current year are not very good. And, a Bank of America-Merrill Lynch survey of global investors has found India as the least favoured economy in the Asia-Pacific region. 

It is high time Delhi gave up its complacency on the external front, looking merely at the level of reserves. Financial markets are prone to function in "feedback loops" which tend to exaggerate price movements in either direction. Policy makers also need to be reminded that like the current account, savings and investment in an economy are not independent of the exchange rate; that the deficit also implies loss of huge potential output and jobs. I expect to revert to the issue in the context of the strange pronouncement on exchange rates at the recent G20 Finance Ministers' meeting in Paris. 

avrajwade@gmail.com

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BUSINESS STANDARD

COLUMN

 

THE CASE FOR INCOME TAX AMNESTY

AN AMNESTY SCHEME CAN WORK ? BUT ONLY IF THE GOVERNMENT IS COMMITTED TO TAX ENFORCEMENT REFORM.

ARINDAM DAS-GUPTA

Settlement Commission which decides on tax dues for individuals who voluntarily disclose large unreported incomes, and the once-in-a-lifetime amnesty from prosecution under section 273(1) of the Income Tax Act. Is the reason overcrowding and uncertainty or, in the case of section 273(1), continuing large financial costs?

Second, how will the government credibly commit to tougher enforcement? To do this effectively the government will need to accelerate the process of international tax and financial reform. In particular renegotiation of, for example, the India-Mauritius tax treaty to reduce round-tripping is incomplete, Mauritius followed by Singapore being the leading sources of "foreign" direct investment in India. It may also consider setting up an International Tax Enforcement unit within the Income Tax Department. In tandem, it could consider removing section 273(1) and the equivalent section in the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) Bill. Further, the Settlement Commission could be refashioned as a forum to settle complicated tax cases as the Wanchoo Committee suggested in 1971.

The third issue, not dealt with here, is the amnesty facilitating foreign financing of terrorism and laundering of profits from activities like drug smuggling and prostitution.

On the design of the amnesty, arguments presented here suggest that a concessional tax rate is unnecessary and that the amnesty can succeed even if the amnesty tax rate is above 30 per cent. This will mitigate discrimination against honest taxpayers. Further, though the amnesty should target illegal foreign funds, it should also allow laundering of domestic black money.

Unfortunately, the finance ministry has tipped its hand prematurely by announcing that it is considering an amnesty. The amnesty will now be anticipated by black wealth holders. Incomplete reforms now or the anticipation effect later will reduce revenue from an amnesty whether it is declared immediately or after further international financial reform.

The writer is Senior Professor and Head, Centre for Economic Research, Goa Institute of Management

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

FOR POWER REFORM

POLITICS CONTINUES TO BE THE ELEPHANT IN THE TENT OF POWER REFORM NO ONE SEES

The Economic Survey tucks away a little, dirty secret of India's political economy in a box on power sector reform. The losses of state electricity boards, says the Survey, are now about 1% of GDP, which would translate to about . 78,700 crore this year. The government stopped publishing a table on this vital parameter a couple of years ago but the problem has only continued to grow in shade of secrecy. This problem cannot be fixed by the technical fixes endorsed by the Survey: independent regulation, competition in bulk supply along with distribution reform and upward revision of retail tariffs. The problem is not with the power sector understood as electricity. Rather, the problem lies with power, as in politics. Patronage of power theft is still widely perceived as legitimate politics, leaving 35% of all power generated unpaid for. A few states like Gujarat and West Bengal have taken explicit political decisions to stamp out power theft and have reaped rich dividends. Others, including a Congress-ruled state like Delhi, drag their feet in the matter. Political courage has to be found not just to increase tariffs where required, but also to end patronage of all theft of power. Often, industrial units steal power not so much because they cannot pay for it as because they do not want to start off an audit trail that could lead to demands for excise duty payments on whatever is produced using the power consumed, and for tax, subsequently, on the income generated from such production. This makes patronage of power theft subversion not just of the power sector, but of governance in general. The other challenge for the power sector arising from politics is a paucity of coal, even for pit-head plants. Nationalisation of coal is an idea whose time went off into the sunset a long while ago, but lives on to haunt the power sector through avoidable shortage of coal.

The power sector needs yet more political action, in the form of an amendment to the Electricity Act 2003 to create a mechanism to hold state level regulators to account for their errors of omission and commission. At present, if a regulator takes arbitrary decisions that damage power sector reform, there is virtually no redress.

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

A GOOD BEGINNING

THE RBI MUST GIVE ITS TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE MORE VISIBILITY AND TEETH

 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has done well to make the minutes of its Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Monetary Policy public. The move, a first for the Bank, provides a small flavour of the complexities that go into framing monetary policy, even if does not dispel any of the mystery. On the contrary, the minutes are couched in such generalities that they give no inkling of the views of the members of the committee. Take, for example, the following: 'The committee expressed concerns about rising inflationary pressures, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs). Rising food prices in the international market, in particular, was a source of worry. Rising food and energy prices could emerge as a major problem in 2011.' What is any reader to make of that? To be sure the TAC, quite unlike the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the Bank of England, has only an advisory role. The governor is free to disregard it. As the former governor of the RBI, Dr Y V Reddy was fond of pointing out, in the Indian context, the buck stops with the governor.

That said, it is not the case that the TAC's voice does not carry weight. All the more reason why the minutes should be more specific and better still, reveal the members' preferences for or against a hike in interest rates, even if there is no formal system of voting as in the UK's MPC. Since the minutes are released with a lag of a month, such disclosure is unlikely to do harm but would bring greater transparency and accountability. It would also strengthen the RBI when it finds itself at odds with the government over monetary policy. Conflicts are inevitable in elected democracies where governments have a much shorter time-frame (usually till the next elections!) than central banks. It is, therefore, important to build institutional mechanisms to ring-fence monetary policy formulation from excessive political influence. Publication of the minutes of the meeting of experts on monetary policy is one such mechanism. The next stage would be to place a more detailed report in the public domain and finally, give the committee some teeth.

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

EDITORIAL

GOLDEN RULES

SIPHONING OFF CANNOT BE LIKENED TO SLACKING OFF

 

The arrest of a PSU boss, his wife and a couple of go-betweens last week and the recovery of 10 solid gold bricks from their bank lockers is, no doubt, further evidence of the malaise called corruption. Taken literally, this endeavour by the wily couple to build their own El Dorado is an ill-advised one given the current climate against such constructions. The lure of gilt-edged securities in times of high inflation is undeniable, but as legality hinges on the interpretations of 'gold bricks', the need to be careful is paramount. There is, to be sure, that age-old Indian habit of hoarding as much gold as possible. But perhaps people also need to be reminded that the term 'goldbricking' has its roots in an apocryphal tale of a con trick in which gilded metal bricks were passed off as solid gold. The pitfalls are obvious.

That syntactical manipulation can also take the offence out of the prosecutable, if not persecutable, ambit these days. As an unsanctioned activity, goldbricking probably has a greater spread than what that couple and their ilk indulge in; it is also on the rise in the workplace thanks to the avenues afforded by technology. Office managements have been wondering how to nip this in the bud, but preventing staffers from slacking off and using internet access for non-work related issues may be counterproductive given evidence that such de-stressing facilities actually improve productivity. So, it cannot be likened to preventing recalcitrant public servants from skimming off public assets and depositing them in b e n a m i bank lockers. While the money allegedly stashed away by Indians in numbered offshore accounts is rumoured to run into mind-boggling billions, goldbricking, the notional billions in systems costs for employers may be money better spent than on guilt-edged bricks.

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

FORESTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT DEBATE

THERE WILL BE NO ENVIRONMENT VS GROWTH CONFLICT IF WE DEFINE DEVELOPMENT IN TERMS OF HUMAN WELL-BEING

 

The GoM to determine the norms for coalmine clearance in reserve forests, largely in tribal areas, and the parallel exercise to give back forest lands to tribals is not about the environment, but about forest policy. The divergence of interests between national use of forests, ecological balance and needs of local people should be recognised. However, the tribal affairs ministry is responsible for the Forest Rights Act and the coal ministry has sought almost mandatory forest clearance to coal blocks it allocates. This approach ignores the conflict of interest inherent in determining forest policy and seeks solutions to the symptoms rather than to the causes of the environmental problem.

The lack of clarity in forest policy is recent. The first national forest policy, in 1894, stipulated that "the claims of agriculture are stronger than the claims of forest preservation". The forest policy of 1952 ensured that the "country as a whole is not deprived of a national asset by the mere accident of a village being situated close to a forest".

The forest policy of 1988 declared environmental stability as the primary goal and also did away with the functional classification of village forests that secured local needs. The debate over how best to manage a common property resource was resolved by the colonial administration through remaining equally responsive to forests as a source of raw material for economic growth and as a source of livelihood for local people. For example, the Forest Settlement of 1917, which reserved large tracts of community forests in Kumaon following widespread protests, led to the Kumaon Forest Grievances Committee in 1922. It recommended reclassification of non-commercial forests and establishment of forest panchayats.

Even at that time, the chief conservator of forests opposed the reclassification, stating that it would hamper conservation of forests. The subsequent government notification ordered that "from a purely forest point of view these remarks are no doubt justified; but the government is convinced that the people of Kumaon would have been satisfied with nothing less".

Working plans prepared by the forest department in 1956 testify that many panchayats were better managed than reserve forests. The government's decision in 1976 to put half of the community forests under the control of the forest department provoked the Chipko Movement in what is now Uttarakhand. A committee of experts was appointed to study conservation of natural resources. The government later stopped felling above 1,000 metres and on slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

We face a similar situation today with the director-general of forests opposing the handing back of community rights of forest resources to tribals, based on the recommendation of an expert committee that this would lead to degradation of forests. This assertion ignores historical evidence that the loss of community ownership breaks the link between the villager and the forest. The superintendent of the Doon noticed the changed attitudes as early as 1897: "Not altogether without reason the villagers believe any self-denial or trouble they may exercise in preserving and improving the village forests will end in appropriation of the forests by the department as soon as they become commercially viable." The first issue for the GoM should be to reclassify reserve forests into community forests and vest their management in the hands of villagers. There should be unrestricted rights for bona fide domestic use and export of timber should not be permitted. Having secured local needs, the forest policy can then seek a balance between environment and development by stipulating how mining should be carried out so that environmental damage to forested areas is minimised. Just as there are standards for point sources of air and water pollution from industry, measurable norms needs to be developed for mining. This is the way it is in all countries, and that is the way it was done here in the past.

 Apolitical initiative is needed because the status report on implementation of the Forest Rights Act for the period ending December 2010 makes dismal reading. For example, in West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, out of 7,805, 4,042, 2,773 claims filed respectively for titles for community rights, only 89, 250 and one tile, respectively, have so far been distributed. If the forest policy is not redefined to reconcile the divergent objectives of the Forest Rights Act and the Forest Conservation Act, problems will arise in implementation. In the face of this inaction, the government is pushing through relocation of forestdwellers from critical wildlife habitats, extending over some 600 national parks, to carve out 'rights free' reserve forests, making an offer of . 10 lakh to vacate the land. Implementation of the forest policy in a manner that ignores local needs will only lead to more discontent and exacerbate the impact of the shift made in 1988 that has assumed an internal security threat and caused the 'Maoist' problem.

The lack of clarity is leading to inconsistency in policy implementation. For example, in the Posco case, non-implementation of the Forest Rights Act was cited as the major reason for not according clearance. Later, the environment ministry cleared the project, stating that it would be satisfied with a certificate from the state government that the Act has been implemented, ignoring the key role of the gram sabha in the process.
Environmental clearance must be transparent and rulebased. The best way forward would be to define sustainability in terms of sustainable human well-being, hand back the forests to tribals to ensure local needs, ban export of timber to secure and develop rules for ecologically balanced mining in these areas.

 

MUKUL SANWAL

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

ET INTERACTIVE

'IMMIGRATION IS THE ANSWER TO SKILLS SHORTAGE'

N SHIVAPRIYA

Visa restrictions and immigration caps are short-term emotions to preserving jobs, but in the long and even medium term, countries will have to promote immigration to fill shortage of people and skills, says Ben Noteboom, CEO and chairman of the world's second largest human resource services firm, Randstad Holding NV, since 2003.

Between now and 2020, he expects huge changes as a large number of baby-boomers retire in the next five years. "It is nothing but emotion; it will disappear fast. Indian immigrants are one of the most productive on an economic value-added basis. Borders of countries will become more fluid, but there will be criteria. It will be good for skilled people," he says. A study done by Randstad with the University of Amsterdam estimates the European Union alone will face a shortage of 32 million people across industries in 2050. This shortage will be purely from quantitative perspective in terms of number of people needed. Qualitatively, the shortage will be much higher, manifesting gradually as economies grow and jobs get more complex.

In this context, cultural sensitivity will not be the major issue. "Cultural adaption should not be much of a problem as long as the workers are skilled. If I am ill, I need someone to take care of me, I don't care for social integration," Noteboom points out. These shortages will have significant consequences for India and China, which will see continued outsourcing, in addition to people immigrating. "We have always seen people moving to work but the work moving to people is 100 times bigger," says Noteboom.

In instances where the work cannot move — such as healthcare-related work — people will move. There are already signs of immigration barriers being relaxed — people from the eastern part of Europe have free entry into Germany. "This will have a big impact, especially on Poland because people don't have to move house but will have 10 times their salary," he says.

But with eastern Europe having one of the worst demographics, migration from eastern Europe will be shortlived, he adds. Similarly, migration from middle and south America will absorb the future needs in the US. Noteboom is responsible for human resources and management development, business concept development, social and general affairs and corporate communications and branding for Randstad in the US, Canada and the UK. There will also be more number of temporary workers because of the flexibility it gives firms, Noteboom says. From being non-existent 10 years ago, there are about 6,00,000 temporary staff in India today. The IT industry, which used have an 80:20 mix of permanent to temporary staff, is now closer to 70:30, reckons Balaji E, president, MaFoi Randstad, Randstad's arm in India. India is the biggest market for Randstad in terms of number of hours invoiced but less than 2% in terms of revenue. On wage inflation witnessed in the Indian IT industry, Noteboom says it is partly because of the rising living cost, apart from scarcity of talent. "In the West and rest of the world, inflation has been exceptionally low for a decade, and as a general trend salaries in IT and finance have increased more than the cost of living."

Randstad's survey shows salaries in India will see an average increase of 9-13%, and in the rest of the world 1-3%. For IT in India, salary increases are likely to be muted with the hikes in high single digits or at best 10%.
One of the reasons for this is that as firms hire in large numbers, even a half percent hike on a large employee base can make big difference to their costs.

Noteboom says that while people expect jobs to pick-up immediately after a recession ends, there is usually a lag between the two. Firms have excess capacity from the recession, which they first utilise before starting to hire from outside.

"We see growth in all the segments in the US, blue-collared, professionals, everywhere. Going by past trends, it is a solid recovery," says Noteboom, who believes there will be no double-dip recession unless there is another country-level failure. Europe is following the US in recovery and Randstad has seen an uptick in bluecollar hiring, which precedes hiring in the professional category.

What does this mean for hiring in India and outsourcing? "The impact is the same as it has always been. Many people talk about economic growth as if it is a competition. If the economies do well, we'll have more work everywhere — in the US, the UK, India, China, Vietnam..." Noteboom sees outsourcing from India evolving from low-end to high value-added work much in the same way that Japan evolved from making cheap cars to high-value, quality products.

 

BEN NOTEBOOM

CEO & CHAIRMAN, RANDSTAD HOLDING NV

 

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THE ECONOMIC TIMES

GUEST COLUMN

WE HAVE AN EMPLOYABILITY PROBLEM

MILIND DEORA

 Three ostensibly disparate recent events have left me pondering about a lurking common thread among them: the Egypt uprising, PM's appointment of a Cabinet-rank advisor for skills development and the fifth anniversary of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). What could be common among unrest in the Arab world, a seemingly inconspicuous government appointment and a fifth anniversary of a social welfare programme? The answer is youth, employment and employability. Let me explain.
First, the unrest in Egypt. As I watched hundreds of thousands of people protesting against incumbency and demanding change, the inescapable observation was that a large percentage of these protestors are youth. More than the outcome of the rebellion, I was intrigued by the causes that led to the Tahrir Square demonstration and it is evident that changing demographics of Egypt with its large youth population played a crucial role in the timing of this unrest.

On February 1, the Prime Minister appointed S Ramadorai, former chief of Tata Consultancy Services, as his advisor on skills development. As our country continues to expand its share of youth population with an expected average age of 29 years by the year 2020, it becomes imperative that we create a fertile environment with productive jobs for the youth. In this context, the Prime Minister's appointment of a person of the calibre of Ramadorai to focus on skills development is heartening.

The unilateral success of MGNREGS lies in the fact that it has provided the much-needed cushion to withstand wagerelated shocks to the poor majority of our country. With the MGNREGS providing the basic protection, the next challenge that beckons us is to provide industry-employable skills to these large MGNREGS beneficiaries that will boost their income levels. As the Chinese saying goes, "to give a man a fish is to feed him for a day, to teach him how to fish is to feed him for life".

The impetus provided by our 7%+ GDP growth over the past few years in job creation is commendable. However, I am reminded constantly by corporate India that we do not have an unemployment problem but an unemployability problem, i.e., a lot of our workforce is unemployable in industry due to lack of skills. And I witness this first-hand almost on a daily basis in my constituency — the rising number of both jobs and people looking for jobs. This gap between the demand for skilled labour and the available supply is already large and rising further. This gap needs to be bridged hastily. Based on my experience in running youth employability initiatives in my South Mumbai constituency, I see three main issues that need to be addressed for us to bridge this skills gap in the country: training capacity, funding for training and urban migration.

If we have to provide employable skills in such large numbers and within a timeframe before the population ages, it is evident that there needs to be a manifold increase in training capacity, much beyond the nearly 2,000 industrial training institutes (ITIs) and the nearly 5,000 industrial training centers across the country. This increase in capacity can be contributed by both the private sector as well as the government. The biggest bottleneck seems to be one of funding. Most highquality training programmes require students to be in class fulltime for two-three months and this becomes unaffordable for the vast majority of the poor both in terms of opportunity costs of time as well as the fees required by the private sector training institutes. Here, the solution could be for the government to act as financiers for the needy and provide training vouchers or its equivalent that can be encashed at any of the training institutes. The third issue is one of urban migration since a significant percentage of the jobs generated still tend to be in urban, tier-1 and 2 towns. If the government and the private sector come together to solve the first two issues and create large pools of skilled and trained workers, I implore the private sector to go to non-urban towns to set up businesses and provide local jobs, thereby easing the pressures of urban migration.

The finance minister, in his Budget speech of 2008-09, had announced the formation of the National Skills Development Corporation as a unique public-private partnership model with a mandate to provide skills training to 50 crore people by the year 2022. Now, with the appointment of a person from the corporate world to oversee skills development, there is great hope and enthusiasm in achieving this target.

I certainly do not allude to a risk of an Egypt-style uprising in our country, given the inherent strengths of our democracy and strong institutions that foster participative democracy at multiple levels. And I share the hopes of the millions of this country that we will overcome this daunting unemployability challenge and provide productive jobs to hundreds of millions of youth in the years to come.

(The author is a member of Parliament. The article is written with inputs from Praveen Chakravarty of Unique Identity Authority of India)

 

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                                                                                                               DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

TOUGH UN ACTION ON LIBYA CRITICAL

It is just as well that India went along with the UN Security Council's decision late Saturday night to impose fairly stringent sanctions on Libya. This is the first major international crisis that the UNSC has been forced to deal with on an emergency basis since India joined the Council as a non-permanent member on January 1 this year. Some might have expected New Delhi to take a somewhat noncommittal stand in line with its traditional disposition to waver when faced with tricky situations involving so-called "nonaligned" countries. That it did not do so is to be welcomed. The vote in the 15-member body was unanimous. The sanctions are essentially targeted against that country's brutal dictator, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, who ordered the shooting of his own people, as well as some of his closest advisers. An arms embargo has also been imposed to prevent the regime getting weapons illegally, which could be placed in the hands of international mercenaries for use against the thousands protesting in the streets. There were reportedly some doubts that the UNSC seeking a war crimes investigation into "widespread and systematic attacks" against Libyan citizens, and referring the Gaddafi government to the International Criminal Court for prosecution, might be scuppered by China, a permanent member of the UNSC, wielding a veto. However, with the Libyan delegation at the UN defecting to the Opposition and calling the Gaddafi regime "fascist", the Chinese probably had second thoughts if indeed they had contemplated opposing the ICC referral. It is not entirely clear that this country was uncomfortable with the idea of the referral. Perhaps more on the subject will be known in due course. For now, it is good to know that the Indian stance has been to oppose the Gaddafi regime on account of its military attacks against its own protesting citizens. The political situation in Libya is evolving and the time may come for the UN to assume the responsibility to protect its people from the regime. In that event too, New Delhi would do well to go along with the idea, which is consistent with stopping Col. Gaddafi in his bloodied tracks. The issue of an outright civil war in Libya and the division of the country are still in the realm of speculation and will call for deliberations based on the facts of the situation as it emerges. Nevertheless, as a UNSC member, New Delhi needs to keep a close watch on Libyan developments based on its own reporting, rather than rely wholly on the information channels of others. Despatching Indian warships to Libya to bring back our citizens stranded there and flying out hundreds of Indians from that North African country on an immediate basis shows that we acted with despatch. Indian ships of war do not have a history of venturing out other than to tackle piracy in the Horn of Africa under international aegis, or for the purposes of naval diplomacy. The last time they left their anchorage to enter foreign waters was to help neighbours in the Indian Ocean deal with the aftereffects of the 2004 tsunami.

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

WOMEN SEEK FAIR DEAL

BY JAYANTHI NATARAJAN

The Union Budget 2011 will be presented in Parliament today. Naturally an important day for every citizen of our country, whose life will be directly impacted by the schemes and taxes and proposals in the Budget. There can be no doubt, however, that the most severely impacted in every section of society, notwithstanding class, creed and income, will be women.

It has been calculated — and this is stark reality — that until now, per capita allocation for women's schemes is 6.1 per cent of the total Budget, which works out to `1,200 per woman, per annum, which, according to a striking account, is not even enough to feed one woman for one month, leave alone feed her or sustain her for 12 months.

The gender budgeting statement (GBS) analysis has been released by the Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability (CBGA) and according to this analysis the per capita allocation for women increased from `410 in 2007-2008 to `1,000 in 2009-2010 and to `1,200 in 2011. This data, of course, relates only to wholly women-oriented schemes and does not take into account other general schemes where women benefit directly as citizens, not as women per se.

CBGA has also raised some very important issues, the most striking of which is the proposition that the discussion in regard to gender budgeting should move on from the standard demand for more funds and allocation to a holistic consideration of how gender responsive all schemes are.

After all, if the concept of a social security net and economic inclusion of women is to be translated into reality, the government's primary consideration in this regard should be to assess the gender impact of all schemes and reshape implementation accordingly. To quote Subrat Das: "To assume that the cost of bringing and retaining a girl child in school is the same as for a boy child is being gender blind."

The above statement is in a sense at the heart of the issue. The girl child in our country is no ordinary person. In every rural and many urban homes, she assumes great responsibility at a very young age and begins to cook, clean and take care of her younger siblings, while her mother goes out to the fields to work. When she is a little older, she goes out to work along with her mother, whether in the fields or as domestic labour or in a garment factory, while her brother is probably being sent to school. All this is done by custom and nobody thinks that anything is at all remarkable in this, but the fact of the matter is that young girls in our country are being deprived arbitrarily of their childhood, their right to education and their right to a secure future by social customs and a hierarchy that is unashamedly patriarchal in nature.

Any attempt to change the hierarchy is naturally met with great resistance by village elders who do not ever want to disturb a domestic balance of power where women and young girls function as captive labour by the diktat of a male-oriented society and by social fiat are deprived of their most basic constitutional rights.

Obviously, therefore, the economic cost of getting a girl to school will be far greater and very different from the cost of getting a boy into school and the government will have to factor this into calculations, if the Right to Education is to be implemented without gender bias.

The saga of constitutionally-guaranteed liberties and laws in favour of women, which gather dust on the shelf, are too well known to be repeated here. The Budget is a crucial time when women as a group have to be adequately provided for, if we are to call ourselves a gender sensitive society.

It is a matter of great satisfaction to all of us that it was the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh which first introduced the practice of including a GBS along with the main Budget document. This statement shows the total allocation for both women specific schemes as well as the allocation for general schemes, which have a 30 per cent women component plan.

In 2005-06, 10 ministries of the government prepared gender budget statements and the total allocation for women amounted to 2.8 per cent of government expenditure. In 2006-07, 18 ministries released gender budget statements and allocations increased to 5.1 per cent of the total expenditure. Today, the amount stagnates at 5.3 per cent of the total. It is to be sincerely hoped that the finance minister will take very seriously the representations made by women all over the country and increase allocation made for women specific schemes. Further the funds allocated for children should not be shown as allocation for women. Children are the concern of the entire nation and it would be unfair to both children and women to always put them in a category with expenditure incurred on schemes for women.

It is an axiomatic reality that the bedrock of good governance lies in gender mainstreaming and gender responsive Budgets and welfare schemes. It is equally true that this cannot possibly be achieved, unless government collates very seriously gender specific, disaggregated data so that information regarding how much money allocated to women actually reaches the beneficiaries it is intended for.

Therefore, if gender budgeting is to be sincerely implemented, the most important requirement is the collection of gender-specific and disaggregated data. It should also be mandatory for every single ministry of the Government of India to prepare and release its gender budget statement along with the general budget.

Women groups have made very specific and urgent requests to the finance minister for this year's Budget. First that there should be adequate allocation to provide infrastructure to implement the Protection Of Women from Domestic Violence Act. Second, that a high-level task force should be appointed to review the working of micro-finance institutions and women self-help groups, which have run into stormy waters in recent times.

Third, that there should be allocation to set up a national task force to provide for relief and rehabilitation for women in conflict zones, and also there should be allocation of funds to set up fast track courts to decide cases relating to rape and other atrocities against women.

The UPA, under president Sonia Gandhi, remains firmly committed to the empowerment of women. The women of this country look forward to good news in the Budget.

* Jayanthi Natarajan is a Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha and AICC spokesperson.
The views expressed in thiscolumn are her own.

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

EDITORIAL

BERLUSCONI IS NO SOCRATES. HE EVADES LAW

BY UMBERTO ECO

One could not help but agree with the Italian government when it formally requested that Brazil extradite Cesare Battisti, a onetime member of the Armed Proletarians for Communism who was convicted in 1993 of four counts of murder committed in the 1970s. And I think this support should hold even for those who may believe that Battisti was the victim of a miscarriage of justice.

Because it is not up to the Brazilian government to decide whether there was a miscarriage of justice — unless it wants to declare publicly and formally that Italy at the time of Battisti's conviction was, and still is, a dictatorial apparatus that rides roughshod over the political and civil rights of its citizens. The extradition request is decidedly valid, because we can assume that Battisti's conviction represented the exercise of justice on the part of a democratic state and an independent judiciary. What's more — for anyone who may have reasons to distrust Silvio Berlusconi's administration — the judiciary made its ruling at a time when Berlusconi was still a private citizen.

Hence asking for Battisti's extradition signifies a defence of the Italian judiciary's integrity, in which case every citizen of Italy ought to agree with the government's decision.

"Well done, Mr Berlusconi", we might be tempted to say. "Your conduct in this matter is impeccable." But when the judiciary initiated criminal proceedings against that very same Prime Minister Berlusconi — not by handing down two life sentences in prison, as with Battisti, but in merely summoning him to defend himself against an accusation that may prove groundless, while protecting him with all due legal guarantees — why did Berlusconi not only refuse to appear before the judges but go so far as to challenge their right to even hear his case?

Is he suddenly trying to show solidarity with Battisti in the common task of delegitimising the Italian judiciary? Is he perhaps preparing to emigrate to Brazil to request the same protection that has been afforded to Battisti, against the alleged illegitimacy of Italy's judicial system? Or, if Berlusconi believes that the judges who convicted Battisti were indeed honourable in their decision, and that their dignity should be defended in order to preserve Italy's honour, does he believe that the judge hearing his own particular case, Ilda Boccassini, is not an honourable person — thus applying a double standard? Can it be that the system is honourable and upright when it convicts Battisti, but dishonourable and unprincipled when its members make inquiries into Ruby Rubacuori, a would-be starlet who was allegedly a minor when she attended parties at one of Berlusconi's homes?

Berlusconi's defenders will say that Battisti is wrong to evade Italian justice, because in his heart he knows he is guilty, while Berlusconi has every right to do the same, because in his heart he believes himself to be innocent. Just how much water does this argument hold?

Those making that argument seem not to have considered a certain text with which anyone who attended high school — including Berlusconi — ought to be familiar: Plato's Crito. For the benefit of any readers who may have forgotten the book, this is the premise: Socrates has been condemned to death (unjustly, as Socrates and the reader both know), and he is in prison awaiting his cup of poison hemlock. He receives a visit from his pupil Crito, who tells him that everything is ready for Socrates' escape. The young man uses every possible argument to persuade the philosopher that he has not only a right but also a duty to avoid an unjust death.

But Socrates reminds Crito of a simple truth — one that ought to be the stance of any decent man facing the majesty of the laws: By living in Athens and enjoying all the rights of a citizen there, Socrates has implicitly recognised the worth of those laws, and if he dared to denounce them once they began to act against his interests, he would be contributing to their delegitimisation and destruction. We cannot take advantage of the law only when it works in our interests, and then reject it when it dictates a decision we don't like; we have made a pact with the law, and that pact cannot be violated on a whim.

Note that Socrates was not a man of government; if he had been, he would have had to say even more — namely that, if he felt he had the right to simply disregard the laws he did not like, then as a man of government he could no longer reasonably expect anyone else to obey the laws that they did not like, whether that meant running red lights, refusing to pay taxes, robbing banks or abusing minors.

Socrates did not make that last argument, of course, but his larger point remains nonetheless noble, sublime, granitic.

* Umberto Eco's most recent book is On Ugliness. He is also the author of international bestsellers Baudolino, The Name of the Rose and Foucault's Pendulum, among others.

By arrangement with the New YorkTimes

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

COVERT METHODS, OVERT GOALS

Banking on Bhagat Singh

More than 80 years after he was martyred, Shaheed Bhagat Singh seems to be inspiring all hues of Punjabi politicians preparing for the Assembly polls early next year. Akali rebel Manpreet Badal, for one, has rediscovered patriotism with the great martyr as his posthumous mentor in his campaign to jagao (reawaken) Punjab.

His estranged cousin and deputy chief minister, Sukhbir Badal, has also clambered onto the new Bhagat Singh bandwagon by rechristening the state games as the "Shaheed-e-azam Bhagat Singh Punjab Games", and including traditional rural sports like kabaddi, dangal (wrestling) and tug-of-war. Also, reinventing the martyr as a truly desi youth icon, Capt. Amarinder Singh and the Punjab Congress are working hard to stage their biggest ever show at Khatkar Kalan — Bhagat Singh's birthplace — this March 23, which will be the 80th anniversary of his martyrdom.

Whether all these will pay any electoral dividends is yet to be seen.

High-fliers anonymous

Many have got free rides in state government-owned aircraft and helicopters, but Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan refuses to divulge their names. In a reply to a question in the Assembly, Mr Chouhan said he has the discretionary power to grant permission for a free ride to any dignitary "in the public interest". The reply also states that no record is maintained of persons accompanying the chief minister in these aircraft.

The officiating Leader of the Opposition, Choudhary Rakesh Singh Chaturvedi, quipped that Mr Chouhan should at least reveal the names of his co-passengers so that citizen could know the names of the high-fliers associated with the CM. In a rather acerbic comment, he also said recording of names is also important to identify passengers in the event of a crash. Surely Mr Chouhan was not amused.

Durbar extraordinaire

Press meets conducted by an additional director-general of police of Mumbai can easily be compared to the Deewan-e-aam and Deewan-e-khaas darbars of Emperor Akbar sans the grandeur. While dope on topical news stories is given to a battery of reporters, the Deewan-e-aam, the juicy tidbits are only savoured by a chosen few at the Deewan-e-khaas. Notwithstanding the crowd, enterprising reporters have invented their own ways of extracting confirmations or denials for their stories from the officer. While a few go close and whisper their query in his ear, others write them on chits and the ADGP without any kind of expression scribbles his answer.

This makes the hoi polloi among the reporters wring their hands in frustration.

Showing the way

Maharashtra home minister R.R. Patil has complained recently that courts as well as the administrative tribunal were reinstating corrupt police officers who are being shunted out of the department. "If action is taken against any officer, that officer goes to MAT and brings a stay order", he said, shaking his head in desperation. "In short, officers misuse the law. Therefore there is a need to change the law that protects them."

One wag said Mr Patil needs to be reminded that two years ago, he was also shunted out from the post of home minister for his faux pas in the wake of the 26/11 terror attack.
However, he was reinstated as home minister within a year without facing any inquiry. Perhaps cops are inspired by this.

Almanac and ambitions
The 28th edition of the Assamese almanac Kalpurush Purnanga Panjika has created a stir in the Congress by predicting that chief minister Tarun Gogoi, will retire from politics in the Assamese New Year, which starts on April 14. Many Congress leaders are now angling for the top post and admit privately that they were "inspired" by the predictions of the almanac.

However, things may not be so easy for them as the almanac also predicts that political life in the state would be filled with upheavals and that many stalwarts are going to lose in the coming Assembly elections. So the CM hopefuls are desperately calling up the fortune-tellers and astrologers associated with almanacs to check if they would lose the polls.

Very hot welcome

Rajasthan health minister Rajkumar Sharma had a "chilling" experience when he visited his constituency of Navalgarh in Jhunjhunu district. A group of people came towards him pretending to greet him and all of sudden, one of them threw chilli powder in his eyes. No need to say that it was shocking and painful for Mr Sharma.

The local police has identified a sarpanch and his supporters as being behind the attack on the minister. The assailant was dressed as a woman. Mr Sharma won on a BSP ticket and subsequently joined the ruling Congress. This annoyed the BSP leaders much and they are now openly lauding the attackers. "He threw sand into the eyes of the public and they threw chilli powder into his eyes", said a BSP leader.

Poll-eve battles

Two Congress MPs in Uttar Pradesh — P.L. Punia and Beni Prasad Varma — are now fighting a shadow war. Last week Mr Punia, who heads the National Commission for Scheduled Castes, inaugurated an auditorium in Gonda, the constituency of Mr Varma.

Mr Varma, now the minister of state for steel with independent charge, was irked by this "intrusion" on his home turf and got his supporters to remove the plaque. Mr Punia promptly retaliated by organising a dalit adalat in Gonda.

While Mr Varma commands considerable clout among Kurmis, a powerful OBC caste group in UP, Mr Punia is emerging as the dalit face of the party. The Congress, obviously, cannot ignore either of these groups. All it can do is pray that the rivalry fizzles out before the polls.

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DECCAN CHRONICAL

OPED

BARE FEET & THEIR SANCTITY

BY MUZAFFAR ALI

In the orient, the feet with extremely opposite interpretations present a powerful and invincible culture. On the one hand, they are looked down upon and on the other, paradise lies at feet of the mother, where touching the feet is like according the highest respect to another. They are not to be pointed at people you respect or extended towards a sacred place. For example, you don't sleep with them turned in the direction of Kaaba.

Being barefoot signifies shedding your ego, your defences, being receptive, being in a state of utmost respect and submission. All healing of the mind, body and soul comes from the feet in the orient, which the occident is slowly discovering for itself. The body has a complex network of invisible energy channels through which Chi, the vital energy of life travels. Every thing is energy. Life is receiving and directing energy. Energy becomes anything. From aura to product. From power to wealth. Energy manages human beings and resources. Energy takes you into a virtual world. You become someone you are not. You bring people to life.

On the spiritual plane energy is ethereal and invisible. It is born out of surrender and submission. It charges you beyond human conception and comprehension. It is the only form of energy that is accessible to all. Like air and water it comes free of cost. It comes from a deep inner peace.

The concept of physical cleanliness and physiological wellness to manifest itself in a spiritual way has never come together so strongly as in being barefoot. Any space which is considered sacred where human beings congregate to receive a charge or a blessing has to be visited barefoot. Homes in every evolved Indian culture from Kerala to Kashmir are all barefoot areas. All mandirs, mosques and dargahs are barefoot zones.

There has to be a religious and spiritual significance to it. Human beings relate differently to each other if they meet each other without shoes. They surrender to each other unconditionally. They relate to each other without the baggage of their egos.

The equation of respect and reverence subconsciously steps in between the host and the guest. These time-tested socially-designed norms created the culture of co-existence. No eastern classical dance is performed with shoes, no song is sung with shoes on. It needs a spiritual connect with the soil on which it is going to be performed, form which energy is going to pour forth. It needs to have the triangular connect with the performer, the Divine and the audience.

The foot has a point for every organ and every single function in the human system. The Western culture, with its shoes on that symbolise status, and purpose make it impossible to take them out even when they visit a church. They feel they have been stripped of their identity if they are to do so. Even people of the orient styled in Western attire begin to feel the same way and particularly in high heels with even Indian attire like a sari. Your will to live is the cause of all cures. Only positive thinking conquers all adversity. Conquest of your mind is the conquest of all metabolic processes going on in your system. And all this comes from the continuity of cultures, a way of living, control of your energy meridians, traditions of healing in which everything begins and ends with your feet.

— Muzaffar Ali is a filmmaker and painter. He is the Executive Director and Secretary of the Rumi Foundation. He can be contacted at www.rumifoundation.in [1]

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THE STATESMAN

EDITORIAL

TRAIL-BLAZING LAW

KERALA SETS ANOTHER GLOBAL EXAMPLE

ON the final day of its final session before dissolution and election, the Kerala Assembly on Thursday unanimously passed the trail-blazing Plachimada Coca-Cola Victims Relief and Compensation Bill, 2011, enabling victims of the Coca-Cola bottling plant at Plachimada in Palakkad district of Kerala to be adequately compensated for the ecological damage caused by it.  Based on the "polluter pays principle," the high-level, three-member expert committee headed by Additional Chief Secretary, K Jayakumar. held the beverage unit liable to pay Rs 216.16 crore for damages caused.  The committee found "compelling evidence to conclude that Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages Private Limited (a subsidiary of Atlanta, USA, based Coca-Cola Company) has caused serious depletion of Plachimada's water resources and has severely contaminated the water and soil." The committee concluded the company was responsible for these damages and it was obligatory that it compensate the affected people for agricultural losses, health problems, loss of wages, loss of educational opportunities, and to the pollution caused to the water resources. This last legislation of the Left Democratic Front government led by VS Achuthanandan of the CPI-M was the result of a prolonged people's struggle which saw the closure of the bottling plant in March 2004, and an almost three-year-long exercise to quantify the damages caused.  The new law provides for the constitution of a three-member tribunal to be chaired by a person in the rank of a district judge, an expert member and an administrative member. While passing any award or order, the tribunal shall apply the principle of sustainable development, precautionary principle and the polluter pays principle.  Once the compensation is awarded, the company shall deposit the entire amount with the tribunal.

Although Hindustan Coca-Cola said the Kerala legislation was "devoid of facts and scientific data," it should serve as a powerful reminder to multinational corporations across the country that there are severe repercussions for reckless exploitation of natural resources and causing irreparable damage to environment. The Kerala government's action has come as a morale booster to the community-led campaign against the company's bottling units in Kala Dera in Rajasthan and Mehdiganj in Uttar Pradesh.  The Plachimada Coca-Cola plant was set up in an area of 34 acres of land classified as arable. Extraction of more than five lakh litres of groundwater daily had upset the natural balance and adversely affected water supply to people in the surrounding villages who were predominantly agricultural workers. Metals like cadmium, chromium and lead were effluents from the factory and caused skin as well as respiratory problems to several people in the area. Unlike the Manmohan Singh government in Delhi, which allowed massive environmental degradation and displacement of poor people, mostly tribal, from their traditional habitat in the name of industrial development, the LDF government in Kerala must be applauded for its policy of sustainable development and taking on the mighty Coca-Cola Corporation for damages.

RAVISHED RIVER

BOTH HARYANA AND DELHI GUILTY

WHETHER a letter from the minister for environment and forest to two states equates with reading the Riot Act is a matter of argument. What cannot be disputed, however, is the "murder" of the Yamuna by both Haryana and Delhi although "slow poisoning" might be a more accurate description of what has been taking place over the past couple of decades. The putrid condition of the river as it flows ~ a filthy trickle at the best of times ~ through the Capital has long been an "issue." Countless have been the photo-ops Sheila Dikshit has offered, but the clean-up effort comes to a halt moments after the chief minister and TV crew depart. What causes some surprise is that Jairam Ramesh got into the act only after the enhanced ammonia levels in the water Delhi "received" from Haryana forced a shutdown of two treatment plants in the Capital and caused many a tap to run dry, including those in Parliament House. Industrial effluent entering the river in Haryana and the same along with massive quantities of untreated sewage in the Capital have made a lethal cocktail of what passes as the sacred waters of the Yamuna.

 

So the blame-game that followed the shutdown of the waterworks last December and a few days ago is pointless. The authorities in both states were aware of what was developing, indeed they contributed to it. All the fuss the Delhi government made over what it received at the Wazirabad and Chandrawal plants would be rendered ridiculous by the quality of water as the river re-enters Haryana. Will Jairam Ramesh's "concern" accelerate processes that have been on paper for years, in Delhi anyway? He will find no alibi in "politics": both states are Congress-ruled, indeed his leadership quality and persuasive powers are on test. With a little luck he might even make a "hero" of himself should the Yamuna revive. Luck, however, is what Sheila Dikshit enjoyed. The deluge during the monsoon facilitated her performing a salvage mission at the CWG village, the flood also averted the true state of the Yamuna adding to other factors that made a joke of her "world class city" bragging. But as the impact of the 2010 monsoon literally becomes "water under the bridge" one of the greatest of her failures comes into prominence again. The Yamuna will call her bluff.

MINISTER VS BUREAUCRAT

WHEN STATISTICS IS MEANINGLESS

TWO important departments of the West Bengal government cut a sorry figure during last Thursday's public discourse on maternal mortality rates. The short point, which itself mirrors the ineptitude of the health and backward classes departments, is that the government has not updated data for the past ten years. It was only too obvious that neither the doctor-turned health minister, Surjya Kanta Mishra, nor SK Nurul Haque, principal secretary of the backward classes department, had bothered to engage in the minimum of spadework before addressing the convention. In the net, the audience at Science City auditorium was treated to a public spat on an issue that concerns women and child development, a critical index of welfare. The bureaucrat need not have advanced dated data; if the scenario in 2001 was dismal, it is far worse today. And the minister, visibly embarrassed as he was with the figures, could have stopped short of trashing "statistical data as useless and often manipulated".  What precisely is "useful", may we ask? The perception of the government and the party?  While maternal mortality rates have gone up in rural Bengal, the "institutional delivery" has registered a sharp decline, one that the secretary has attributed to poor transport, absence of 24-hour emergency services and no less crucially, the lack of political will. Altogether, the convention turned out to be a rare instance of a minister and important party functionary being caught on the wrong foot by a bureaucrat. Hopefully, the loyalist tactic of thoughtlessly echoing the political master is nearing its end. Altogether again, it reflects the sloth that plagues public health services in the rural areas... of a kind that explains the department's failure to update vital data. The crisis can only deepen with the government giving up its plan to open hospitals in Malda, Murshidabad and North 24-Parganas as doctors have refused to serve in the districts. To put it bluntly, as we must, the attitude of Dr Mishra's health department has been wimpish in the extreme.

 

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THE STATESMAN

ARTICLE

KEEP PETRO PRICES LOW

BY ASWANI MAHAJAN

 

THE hike in petrol prices by oil companies has hit the common man hard. The masses, reeling under hyper-inflation, are feeling helpless. The consumption of petroleum products cannot be compared with that of any other commodity. An increase in fuel prices raises the cost of transport, both freight and passenger, the running cost of industries, and the overall energy bill. Clearly, any rise in the prices of raw materials for industry will result in an increase in the prices of goods and services produced by the same.

Petro companies have for the time being spared diesel and LPG prices, but this relief is temporary. It implies that sooner or later freight and passenger fares will also  increase. The rise in the cost of living because of higher expenditure on transport and the cost of operating industries may aggravate the inflationary pressures.
The increase in fuel prices is not a new phenomenon. The new feature is that previously petro prices were administered by the government; but since June 2010 the price level is determined by the companies. This calibration is called 'determined prices'. These companies had  effected a 5.6 per cent hike in the price of petrol in December 2010. Within a month, they announced an increase by another 5 per cent, resulting in an effective increase by nearly Rs 6 per litre in just one month. However, the price of diesel has not been changed, but these companies have signalled that the cost of diesel and LPG will also go up in due course of time.

Prior to June 2010, the government used to administer petroleum prices, which would be revised once or twice every year. But the hike was never so frequent and so substantial in a particular year. And there were instances when petroleum prices were even reduced with the fall in crude prices in the international market. More important is the fact that the Central government never provided a huge government subsidy in its endeavour to keep petro-prices under check. Petroleum companies were told to issue oil bonds to compensate their losses in the event of high crude prices internationally. Everybody knows that oil prices do not remain static in the international market. Last year, oil prices rallied between $64 and $90. If we take the past two years into account, the highest price of crude in the international market was recorded at $147; it touched a low price of $34.57. This means that by selling at a loss at one point in time, when international crude prices are higher and compensating the loss by issuing oil bonds, does not mean loss in the long run. The oil companies could redeem these bonds as and when they had a surplus when international crude prices plummeted.
On the whole these companies were earning a profit, though their profits were not very huge under the administered price regime. But they were also not a liability on the public exchequer.

In an attempt to justify its earlier decision to allow companies to fix petro-prices, the government claims that because of state control and the effort to keep the price of diesel, petrol and LPG under check, petroleum companies were incurring huge losses and the government was not in a position to compensate them. In the government's reckoning, these companies may still incur losses because they will charge lower prices for diesel and kerosene. The government claims that as crude oil prices continue to rise and consumption of petro-products is ever so high, the losses of these petro-companies may rise further.  The only way, therefore, to save these companies from losses is to allow them to determine the cost plus prices.

But the arguments of the government do not hold much water. These companies have been making huge profits in the past. For instance, in the year 2008-09, ONGC earned a net profit of Rs 16,041 crore, GAIL Rs 2814 crore and Indian Oil  Rs 2570 crore.  This was incidentally the year in which the highest-ever crude prices were recorded in the international market.  There is little logic in the government's argument that the new  arrangement has been put in place to save petro companies from huge losses. On the contrary, because of the increasing demand of these petro products, the government has always gained significantly by way of taxes. These taxes are in the form of excise duty, VAT and so on. These companies also provide dividend to the government from their profits in proportion to the Centre's shareholding.  According to the provisional estimates of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the contribution of the oil sector to the Central and state exchequer has been a booming Rs 183,861 crore in 2009-10. Therefore, the government ought not to be reluctant if it has to occasionally compensate for the losses of petro-companies.

The government's argument that it was providing a huge subsidy to keep petro-prices low is not correct. During 2009-10, when high